>> you have to buy the book. i will tell you why because there is a chapter in it called our changing climate history. and in that chapter i ask you to be a scientist i think i started off 1990 and then 1995, 2000, 2005 and you can see how the same data set has changed in 1980 there was a paper published by spencer and christi which had 11 years of a brand new satellite and it showed no warming but the surface temperature records show warming and the weather balloon record which is the third showed more warming. by 1995 that disparity continued. by the year 2000 the united

nations suggested the temperature record so the readings around 1950 got colder so there was more warming in the same data and it was discovered the satellite had a drift in it so when that was corrected for and there are various directions a satellite record began to show warming and then buy the year 2005 or 2007 there is a tremendous adjustment that was made to the weather balloon data where it got much much colder remember that in the early portions of the record? now all of the records agree and the point* in my article is you have to say at that point* that warming is real but you also have to back it up with the understanding the way science works which is people trying to get data to

fit the theory. that is what we do in case you don't know. it is up to you to decide six changes in the record all in the same direction flipping a coin six time all heads it was possible and real but the probability is low. one question in the back and we are out of here. >> . >> was pointing to the guy and the dark. >> i write for "national review" sometimes one quick comment on the dispute about the sea level rise is that it is correct the numbers your siding exclude rapid change in ice flow but it is also true

the ipcc says they are very unlikely to occur that is why they're not included in the numbers. >> i know that the chart you are showing demonstrating falsification models, how do go but estimating what you think is the minimum period of time for a valid falsification test? >> we did not restarted at five and went out at 20. the problem is we cannot go much beyond 20 because then we start using model data that is too far out in the future when i see the observed data following that o.25 line pretty much along the entire length i would be shocked if another 10 years with all the

sudden make it drug into the trumpet. that would be very odd. i wish i could put 10 years on the clock and not age and do that but i cannot thank you very much. lunches upstairs [applause] [inaudible conversations]

>> new deal to the new right to argue that modern conservatism was founded in the south. why? >> the reason i make a claim is often people talk about a southern strategy and a capture of the south by the g.o.p. after the 60s beginning with goldwater and an expanded 72 reelection. in some ways this situation is reversed the southerners play a key role in the conservative capture of the republican party itself and then republican national a. in a certain ways to a combination of southern segregationist politics and conservative is of it is blended over time by various political actors in a way it allowed the national language of racial resentment and opposition to

federal-state power generally. >> host: two questions arise from that answer, how did they planned and when did this begin? >> it begins decisively in the 1940's and '30's in congress there was a conservative coalition that comes together after 1936 to resist some of fdr imperatives but really it is after world war ii win during the truman and many kate -- administration when he pushes for federal employment taxes commission and a desegregation of the military that you have southern political elites suddenly declare independence from the national democratic party. of course, than dixiecrat have the state revolt in 19,408th the strategy was to get enough electoral college votes in the south to throw the national election into the house of representatives which did not work but it began to separate

the seven democrats from national democrats and the growing ratio liberalism and i think then what happened was conservatives in the north frustrated with eisenhower and with what they saw it is the need toism and the new deal era began to look to our allies to rebuild a conservative party and push back so "the national review" magazine begins to invite segregationist writers and others to write articles for "national review". and some conservative republican strategist begin to build the republican party and the south which has not ever been a viable party certainly not after reconstructions of both the level of intellectual discourse and party strategy

we began to look south word. >> host: shared interest for economic? >> guest: economic and racial segregation nest saw the struggle would remain regional unless they could find allies outside the region and convince southerners who were quite loyal they needed to abandon the democratic loyalty from the party and northern conservatives did have a big stake prior to the 1950's began to find ways to see how racial politics would animate northern audiences and begin to pilaf segments of the white working-class and others from the hegemonic democratic party. >> host: who were some of the leaders of the movement?

>> guest: at 1940 dixiecrat leaders collins in particular he is the intellectual grew of the dixie get revolt not only the hard white supremacist segregation meter but one who really seeks to convince strom thurmond, and other southern e leads that they have to articulate a conservative anti-government policy as well as the anti-ratio government politics. he is it one of the leaders. in the '50s and '60s, william f. buckley is not often remembers he makes dramatic efforts to bring seven years into the conservative coalition it has an editorial in 57 arguing the denial of the vote to black citizens in the south which is perfectly justifiable because they have

not reached a level of civilization so he is another figure, goldwater clearly is someone you when he runs in a 64 outside his own state of arizona only wins one hand fall of deep south states know where is the a strong figure to seven why did he win those states? >> guest: one of the major issues in the election was the great civil-rights bill that johnson had proposed an goldwater opposition to the civil-rights bill was one of the things that was refused by his supporters over and over to get those so it was for him articulated as a strong constitutionalism and states' rights and individualist type of ideology. >> what is the southern

strategy? how would you define that? >> they begin with the their goldwater or nixon and the idea that northern republicans hoped to win over southern voters and to win southern states by pushing the race issue by either a coded or open language for goldwater it is opposition to the civil-rights bill. but is what people refer to when they talk about the southern strategy but what is missing is agency and activity of others to help to put this on the table and devise a language that will play not just in the south justin gary indiana and the detroit michigan and baltimore mayor wind were issues of open housing open union, other

anti-discrimination measures are focused directly on race of the attention can have a broader wide audience. >> host: how you get from the new deal to the new right today? >> guest: the story itel is by looking at elements both in and outside of the new deal so democrats than northern conservative republicans and western republicans begin to bring their political perspective together in opposition to the new deal and finally a place where by 1980 ronald reagan wins and an 84 even more so. and the beginning of a national alignment or regime change which i think we're at the end of now 57 that ronald reagan kicked off his campaign in mississippi. why was that significant?

>> guest: not just mississippi but in the county where this is the site of the three civil-rights workers that were killed by the klansmen in 1963. this was steeped in racial history and is steeped in meaning for mississippi. trent lott for him to give a speech there and reagan says like to i believe been states' rights which means it could have meant any number of things but a certain message was carried fourth. >> host: what is a state in your view of today's new right or conservative movement? >> guest: we are in the "twilight" of the reagan revolution and in fact, many of the soldiers say the same thing. pat buchanan, a new gingrich and others.

i think what happens in american political history certain ideas dominates and certain political imperatives shape the landscape and over time they start to wane as new political questions arise and new players come onto the scene to change political identity. but in some ways like democratic liberalism in the '70s the republican right has run at of gas were in the drug of splintering it with a major internal fight over the future direction of the party. it was interesting to see in the republican primary you had a whole range of candidates none of them who could fully credibly claim conservative credentials but yet all of them invoking reagan over and over. >> host: what does that mean for the south? >> is very much in play the way it has not been in a

generation. the last national presidential election resaw it in north carolina georgia, mississippi across the south i think black voters are playing a more rolled 1/2 and latino voters are playing a more decisive role and white voters are more fragmented. part of it has to do with changing identity and other is strong enforcement of the voting rights act and the south which is open a lot of territories to exciting change. >> host: what is your day job? >> guest: a political science professor at the university of oregon. i teach american politics paradigm teaching a course on comparative conservatism with europe and america and also racial politics from the mid 20th century to the president. >> host: when it comes to compared to a politics what is

the difference? >> guest: one difference is america was founded on the liberal idea of the classic idea in the way that the europeans don't have. here if you looked at the origins of american conservatism you see hamilton ideas about manufacturer and capitalism and markets and a centralized power and jeffersonian they blend together into a conservative movement in the 20th century so there is no tradition the wigs lacked either an aristocracy to fight or a mob to fight against. so you don't have feudal traditions and the same way. >> host: university of oregon, from the new deal to the new right.

>> hi. thank you for coming. i will read a real quick passage from chapter four and then do my little routine, am i talk. this is a chapter called the new taliban. when the end came for the taliban treasure he was hurtling down the isolated smugglers pass the iraqi wasteland known as the desert of death he traveled in a four by four with the regional taliban subcommander.

there is a third commander there were the biggest heroin smugglers it was december 192006. unbeknownst to them a royal air force plane had picked up the trail when he spoke earlier on the satellite telephone. the spy plane made contact with the special operations team the raf reach out to task force or do military intelligence unit tracking terrorists electronically in wants they conferred the haddam on the phone u.s. warplanes took off from back-room air force base launching a precision air strike the moment of the vehicle moved out of a populated area. it was obliterated and they never knew what hit them. as the money man as the six creaky provinces in the south he was at the time the highest-ranking tala beneficial to be eliminated since the u.s.-led coalition invaded in 2001.

although u.s. military officials in the western media hailed his killing a key circumstance of his death but little attention in charge of the finances was taken out when he was doing a dope deal one of the things that i hope comes from this book is that it helps people to redefine what they think of the taliban and al qaeda. most of us have a preconceived notion of what the taliban are like. we think of guys with turbans, most of them desperately in need of a pedicure or a bad. living in caves in afghanistan. we think of them as a liberal

fanatics, gun-toting, basically backwards illiterate people. and what i would like to put forward to all of you who have climbed days kindly come down to hear me speak out like to put out another model but i also think is useful. i am not suggesting that omar has developed a taste for pork or osama bin laden has started drinking nor are they about to open a new wing however what i have done over the last five years is to investigate the taliban operation on the ground level. when you start doing that, they start looking more like best.

-- in this. antacid do with the way that they earn money. one of the mistakes that the western governments have made that was made in our operations in afghanistan is to underestimate them as religious fanatics who live in caves. we need to start looking at the enormous economic forces that are bankrolling the insurgency that is now spreading rapidly across pakistan not just afghanistan. chose to move through quickly, the taliban has for a long time earned money off of the opium trade in afghanistan. what i found is that since 2001 they have increased their activities the city the drug trade. they collect tax in the southern areas almost 10% of the drug trade similar to your

local mafia of that operates this is the tony soprano model comes 10. they force farmers and local residents, local shopkeepers to contribute to the insurgency they call it protection money. in many cases as opposed to receiving actual cash because in rural areas there is not a lot of money floating around percolate actually receive physical items. they get motorcycles, mobile phones because the insurgents change phones all the time to avoid detection. they will demand the locals provide them with phone units and the chips to go inside them and afghanistan is a country where the phone system is pay as you go so they will demand a card that provides credit on the phone. food and even medical care.

one of the interesting things i found a hospital in pakistan that is owned by a drug smuggler and the taliban soldiers can go there and seek medical care they even pay for taliban soldiers to go to r&r the taliban also protects drug shipments as they leave the farm areas and head toward the border area. that will involve actually providing arms to protect drug shipments as they go down the afghanistan highway and on the smuggling trails and also involves increasingly as the years have progressed in even involves the taliban launching attacks on nato forces to actually divert them to one part of the helmont province with a shipment going down the other road.

they'll also help to protect drug refineries that exist along the pakistan border. literally providing protectionism as many of the refineries and also taxing the output as much as $250 per kilo produced. increasingly as the years have gone on we have even seen some taliban commanders begin to run their own hair when refineries. -- heroin refineries of the local researchers who have worked with me they are increasing their involvement is very similar to what happened with the far -- farc and columbia. and also officials and the ruling council of the taliban.

these donations can be to the tune of several million dollars per year from the big cartel operates from pakistan that moves the enormous amount of heroin and opium out of the region. al qaeda and other extremist groups one of the things that is so confusing when you try to explain this situation there is so many different groups operating along the border in some areas people who are involved in the drug trade are just local thugs and local criminals and in a lot of cases they are referred to as the taliban by the locals but there it only have a connection which is the money they may pay into them vocationally but they're not from the original taliban burma you also have the pakistani extremist groups and also the islamic movement of the uzbekistan we do not hear about that much they try to

talk about uzbekistan and put in place a taliban style government but the imu is very important in the drug trade. interpol believes they control as much as 70% of the herald been coming out of afghanistan and reaching the streets of europe. we're talking billions of dollars every year that they profit off of their work very close with the al qaeda and always have and what my research has found is that al qaeda and the imu come into the trade as the drugs reach the borders. the taliban tax it and protect it until it gets to the borders then that is where the other groups, and to play. that is precisely the moment when the value of the drug goes up exponentially often as much as 12 times so that is

where you stand to make the most money which is funny that they want to launch more attacks against the west the other phenomenon we have seen over the last five years is the expansion into other forms of criminal activity even though lot of stuff has happened since the book went to final print, there is a lot of activity a lot of criminal kidnapping rings that operate you see people getting kidnapped in one town and sold of the food chain. lot of us know a prominent journalist based in the city that has been kidnapped by a local criminal gang and was sold to an extremist group that operates. the also extort a low

of -- local operations of mines, gemstone's one of the things i have been hearing where the taliban has taken over in pakistan they have taken over the emerald mines and has started selling those on the black market. smuggling guns and ammunition is something of lot of the extremist groups have been involved with since the early '80s. human trafficking is another field they get into. recently a bad head of pakistan taliban, his people robbed a huge of money changing operation in karachi millions of dollars and brought two him in the border area according to national geographic smuggle millions of dollars worth of the antiquities out of the region every year and there are many who have been to afghanistan know the country that was at the crossroads of the silk

route has an incredibly rich ancient history and a lot of ancient sites are being absolutely pelages and most of it is smuggled through pakistan part of that is always the linchpin in these situations. when i started looking into how the money functions and the insurgent system, this is what takes me back to my soprano model. even though some of the groups, the various groups that operate along the border region may only be loosely affiliated, the guy at the district level always asked to kick a percentage upstairs to his commander and everybody pays 10 it is like the upside-down pyramid the money goes toward the top which