>> coming up on "espnews," soccer history was on the line and this group of americans was determined to make it. >> inside the box and there it goes. the u.s. leads. they come through. >> would that goal reverberate throughout the soccer world or did brazil have an answer? we'll see. >> rolling thunder hits new hampshire. unpredictable outcome. >> sweet lou piniella says sorry to his outfielder and sends out the edgy eighth in the chicago special. and all-time baseball hits the interleague as atlanta releases hanson on the boston bat.

>> hi world war i and it's about self-determination and nationalism and giving colonials peoples the hope that they too could form their own nations and he takes these ideas and looks at how they traveled in different countries and led to uprisings the following year in many nations. china, korea, egypt and india. and those are only some of the countries that are involved in this book because similar events are going on in palestine and other places. this is an author who reads a lot of languages and spent time in all of those countries doing archival work and brings together sort of an intellectual and a political history and is a really global history. this was a first book and this also won two prizes. >> where did the title come from? >> the wilsonian moment was something that the author, i think, believed represented the spirit of the age. the lincoln moment is an

important moment in american history but the wilsonian moment gave rise to a sense of hopefulness that there would be a new future coming out of the ashes of world war i. >> susan ferber with oxford university press, a couple of their new titles. .. i like this jacket better than that one, with the price will be, how many we should print,

ase balk decision add up to big decisions but a bunch of small ones along the way. >> how long have you been in books and where did you come from before basic? did you always want to be a publisher? >> no, i was in a retail. i ran a bookstore in washington for ten years and finally decided i loved the book business so much wanted to try something out there than retails a publishing was the choice. i think you're going to date me, it might be almost 20 years of book expos, aba's as they used to be called. >> let's talk about their books you said yes or no to on decisions. we will start with wrecks steves, the travel memoirs. >> a lot of people know rick steves because he said europe through the back door in the travel series and he's got some of the best travel books on the market but rick is also very politically active and the travel guide isn't appropriate to have because people want to make their own decision how they

are going to travel but this is a long essay on the fact that when you travel you actually are committing a political act and when you travel you should -- you should consider where you're going and how you behave when you're in a place and that americans need to basically travel better and that you can learn as much from the culture that you're going to visit and you will see the cover house this suitcase and the idea is when you come back from a place you should bring back as much of that place as possible. mick america a more interesting place and make you a more interesting individual. so it's a political essay on travel. >> getting back to the idea of you being the publisher. the cover, did you make the decision? how did that come about? >> that was originated by one of the marketing people at perseus. we knew it couldn't look like a travel guide with a single destination but we also didn't want it to seem too overtly political. we wanted accessible, a level it

fun, a little bit old-fashioned. so that is actually a suitcase rate steve own and we put stickers on it. it's not a stock's total we found, we put it together and these lines are down debt. i like the way that it's clean and fun and the message across clearly. >> some of yours are at the bookstores they know a lot of thought has been put into the book covers. >> we agonize and covers are of the tough things we do because everyone has a legitimate opinion what works as a cover and sometimes what i do is filtered through the legitimate wheezes and pick the one i think is going to help in the long run. >> i should add all the books we are talking about on the table are out right now. >> that's right. this show is usually to talk about fall books but we also bring out spring books and that just published last month. >> let's talk about to books here on the economy. i guess you would say to diverging takes. >> certainly to perspectives. robert frank is just to simplify things i would say is a liberal

economist, he writes a column for "the new york times," teaches at cornell and he's done this, this is the second book he has done for us and it's a collection of pieces about how to think about the current crisis through economic terms. he helps people come up with a vocabulary to help understand all of the garbage that you hear in the news to sort through. he has a lot of prescriptive solutions as well. then on the other side you have tom sowell, a conservative economist at the hoover institution in california. very widely respected. both of these men are up respected and we approached professor sowell and said we would like you to read a book what has happened on the economy and he said without a doubt i need to write about the housing crisis because in his opinion the housing crisis is what is precipitated the entire economic boom and bust. >> so we have some trouble, we have the economy and in this book by chris mooney at of science in america. you want to tell about that? >> he is a science journalist

and wrote a book a couple years ago which was a bestseller. now he's moved on to the idea that we have a problem with scientific literacy in this country and i think the argument he would make is when you read the front page of, you know, a daily paper and look at the problems the country faces an enormous number our scientific problems or i should say problems that have scientific solutions and one of the things we are struggling with in the country is we don't have the capacity or infrastructure to build scientists who can help solve these problems of this is an argument saying that we need to increase the scientific literacy in this country and that includes obvious things like our education system but also means scientists have to do a better job of talking about scientific solutions and accessible terms for the public. >> now you mentioned that this is the conventional where people come out and talk about their fall books, all being the biggest season for the book industry when you release your largest titles. >> that's right. the consumers sort of come out to spend for the holidays is the

assumption. when i was angry till the assumption is you did one-fourth of your business in november, december. i don't know whether that number still takes the publishers do tend to push their biggest books for the time of year. it's when gift books, a local strip of books come out and for us because basic doesn't to illustrate books and gift books per say we do history and psychology and things like that sweet tend to be the most as we like to say gifty jargon that come out at that time of year. >> i should add real quick donner is holding a catalog here. this is something that book buyers, librarians, media, this is what you put together so that they know what's coming out and you can essentially pitch them on the books. >> publishers think in terms of seasonal lists. most have two or three per year and again i don't know if you can read that this is the full list and what we do is descriptive copy for every book has a biography of the author

and jackets and just sometimes quotes or examples from the book and i think you summarized it perfectly i think the main tools for booksellers the publicists use it for media. we use it for authors and agents so that they can see what individual publishers are doing. and you know, we have to plan books into the marketplace six, nine months ahead of time and so you have to have something that's sort of polished like this so that their retailers and publishing folks can see what the final book will look like because some of these books haven't been finished. they are still being written so we don't have a final to show. eugene reubin is a historian at sing and knees college in oxford. this is what we think will be a major new history of the arabs and he's taken an interesting approach. he has chose to start this history in the 1500's and his concept that is when the ottomans first conquered the

arable land and one of the defining characteristics of the history is they frequently had been an occupied ethnic group, and so he decided that that was the key -- rather than start with mahomet, which is where other histories have started that this was the defining moment. and what he would argue is that arabs value history in ways that those of us in the west don't think about. first of all, their history is deep and richer. for most of their history they were a dominant power and i think one of the things that's going on in the middle east is arabs are seen as that the west sort of looks down on them and that's something that is inconsistent with their history. so it's very important to understand arab history if you want to try to understand what is happening. >> would you bring him to the united states to talk about his work? >> we will bring him -- it's funny because history is a little tough to get media because the media is sort of obsessed with this in the news

and even the white trash to make the argument what is relevant that will be a little bit of a battle and we try to pitch books about or the article was written and he looked at the ways it's been

applied for history and in terms of the court applied it. i wish i had this book because he would be quick to calm and we are talking about the court's interpretations of constitution so since we know there will inevitably be another supreme court justice to be nominated and approved we will be ready to roll this out but he is a very well-known conservative journalist and we are excited about this. it is the first book and we think >> john sherer former publisher from basic books. >> thanks. david kilcullen, former senior counterinsurgency adviser to general petraeus in iraq, talks about the relationship between the war on terror and smaller guerrilla nabors mack being fought around the world. he also discusses president obama plans for afghanistan. mr. kilcullen is interviewed by "the washington post" david ignatius. the event hosted by the center for a new american security in

washington, d.c. is one hour and 15 minutes. [inaudible conversations] >> good evening, everyone. i'm john, the president for the center of new american security and it's a great honor to welcome all of you to what promises to be exported during evening of discussion about the most important issues facing america today. the counter insurgency campaigns in iraq, afghanistan and the global counter insurgency against al qaeda. and we couldn't have a better pair of thinkers to light to guide us through these minefields. david ignatius is a columnist and associate at the "washington post" where he writes on global politics, economics and international affairs. his award winning column appears on thursdays and sundays. david is also the creator and moderator of post global and

online conversation about international affairs at "washington post" donner, which shows he knows where the newspaper industry is heading. david is particularly well informed on even as in the american intelligence community with which he has close ties. david worked for ten years as a reporter for "the wall street journal" before joining the post. he's written six novels including most recently body of lies. david will be talking tonight with dr. kilcullen a long time fellow at the center for american security and author of a book which is definitely not a body of law is. davits new book is the reason we are here tonight. "the accidental guerrilla: fighting small war in the midst of a big one." david is a former australian army officer who sees combat in indonesia as an infantryman and many other places and other roles. i met dave eckert pentagon where

he was the regular warfare adviser to the 2005 quadrennial review. since then he served successively as chief counterterrorism adviser at the state department as counterinsurgency adviser to general david petraeus during the surge of troops to iraq and special adviser for counter insurgency to secretary state condoleezza rice. having seen the influence he exerted on american counter insurgency and counterterrorism, policy and practice the past four years i can confidently state no foreign citizen has done more for the united states and a time of war since colonel thaddeus helped army liberated shores some 200 years ago. the two davids will discuss for about 30 minutes before turning to questions from you, the audience, about another 30 minutes and once the australian is thirsty we will adjourn to the foyer.

having known him a while. [laughter] when he is really thirsty dave is going to sign books in the back and the rest of us will have a beer and if everyone could help him and make sure that he always has a beard, too, that would be much appreciated. gentlemen. >> let me start by thanking john and the center for new american security for putting that even on and particularly shannon, i can't see you, hiding behind the killer. set out from the shade for a minute. [laughter] sheehan and worked hard to put this together and i appreciate the effort of the whole team. david is going to ask questions. i just got back from columbia where i delivered possibly the worst counterinsurgency conference keynote address in history. the reason being the awful body

of lies and i took it with me on the plane and i was reading it and thinking i've got to stop reading this so i can write my remarks for the conference but i couldn't put it down and i have it with me in my briefcase maybe you can sign it after. >> not a problem. [laughter] >> i didn't pay him to say that i promise you. [laughter] this is a treat for me and i think for all of us and i just want to jump into this by asking dave to explain the title of his book, "the accidental guerrilla." what is an accidental guerrilla? >> it is one of about 90% of the people we've been fighting since 1911 who are fighting not because they hate the west or because they support the ideologies of al qaeda or one of the other terrorist organizations but rather because we just turned up in their village or valley unilaterally with military force.

we killed their cousin. we disturbed their livelihood something that has alienated them and pushed them into the arms of local radicals who are now exploiting them and planting them back at us and i use a number of examples in the book ranging from iraq and afghanistan, thailand, pakistan even into the slums of western europe to show that conservatively 90 to 95% of the people that we have ended up fighting since 9/11 are people that we probably did not need to fight. and just to sort of summarize the opening comment, but quote we always used in situations like this said the most supreme and far reaching act of judgment the military command have to make is to understand the nature of the war er engaging.

not mistaking it for trying to turn it into something it's not. and the even greater philosopher said the beginning of wisdom is to call things by the right name. and then of course the supreme philosopher frank zappa said -- [laughter] if you're fighting the world put your money on the world. [laughter] so the book is trying to understand what is the nature of the war they are engaged in and in the case of the muslim world stop liking the muslim world and for the 98% that are all part of the problem. >> i don't think frank zappa has a typology quite as eloquent as yours but you have in your book a description of the fourth stage process that creates these accidental guerrilla as you said they didn't begin with a quarrel with the united states or didn't tend to be fighting us but ended

up fighting us. as we are beginning to think about these ideas maybe you can explain that process. >> first part of the book is draw i have to warn you and i look at detail how you might understand the current conflict environment and life your eyes that the accidental guerrilla as i call them emerged from a four stage process. the first stage is an faction in which a pre-existing conflict societal breakdown, civil war, some kind of the other problem is infected by very small number of people from an external source in this case tech pherae terrorists like al qaeda who come in and they are not part of that society, they are not necessarily particularly popular in that society. often they displace pre-existing leadership groups who are dispossessed and feel aggrieved at them and start to influence their money at society.

that's the infection stage. if that was all there was to it it would stay like that but then what happens is the next stage which michael contingent is where the influence of that terrorist group which is a very small merkel group but has a substantial influence often because of globalization pathways like world television, easy travel, transmission of funds from country to country the influence spreads and in the case of al qaeda we saw them establishing a presence in pakistan and afghanistan before 9/11. the infection phase and we then saw this contingent affect where the of violence and radicalization sponsored by that group spread around different parts of the world. the third stage is intervention where western powers intervene in that area to try and deal with the threat of groups like al qaeda. when that happens, the entire dynamic shifts and instead of being an outsider who's dispossessed the local

leadership group and scene with a certain amount of suspicion by the population we turn up with large scale military forces of the nature of things we do a lot of damage and end up alienating the population and creating what sociologists call the primary group cohesion response where people essentially bond to the closer rather than the more distant person to the person that's more like them rather than the foreigner and we end up in a rejection with a whole society ends up turning against us. it doesn't always happen and i use a number of examples to suggest that. the first one which is in the book is afghanistan this line that started with infection followed by 9/11 and we intervened and over a period of time the rejection response has gradually developed in parts of afghanistan and pakistan. in iraq, which is the second example, we started it. we intervened. then there was a rejection from

population which created space for the infection of that resistance movement by extreme radicals who were not necessarily from there and in the final phase it was contagion where violence from iraq led out into a number of neighboring countries and also further afield. so that's the other examples showing it can start and numerous parts of the cycle but then i talk about pakistan, about south southern thailand and about -- and show how it doesn't just to exist in those examples that we also talk about but it exists in a variety of conflicts and it doesn't have to be that way and i show how to do things different and the final example in the book is western europe and i shall that it's not just the phenomenon of the developing world or hill tribes but you can see very similar responses in second and third generation immigrant communities in the west and i suggest that for too long western governments

have been looking at auslin immigrant communities as a fifth column or source of threat and that in fact that's exactly the wrong way to look at it. what they are is at risk population targeted by an extremely small minority and at the end of the book i go through detail how we can do better. and using what my boss used to call the passive exxon narrative voice. since 9/11 mistakes were made. [laughter] and i hope we can do better moving forward. >> we are going to talk tonight about a number of different adversaries and battlefields but i want to start with the person who still leading adversary in the public consciousness and that is osama bin laden. you have a haunting quotation in your book from bin laden's from 2004 that i want to read and then ask you to talk about bin

ladens as you see it. you quoted him saying the following. all we have to do is send mujahideen to the furthest point east to raise a cloth on which is written al qaeda in order to make the u.s. general's race there to cause americans suffer economic and political losses without achieving anything for it. so we are continuing this policy leaving america to the point of bankruptcy, all willing and nothing is too great for allah. is that, do you think, a summary of bin ladens's and al qaeda's strategy today and how do you think they are doing? >> well, i think that al qaeda has evolved dramatically in its strategy since its foundation. combating terrorists at west point did a project where they looked at internal al qaeda discussion before 9/11 based on a trove of documents discovered

in afghanistan and they were able to show that there was a very sharp internal debate inside al qaeda with some people arguing that the 9/11 attacks would provoke the united states into a series of actions that would alienate the muslim world and create a mass uprising where muslims around the world would rise up against local pols tight regimes, throws them off and enable al qaeda to look as the vanguard of the muslim population. that was the al-zawahiri in lowden theory. there are others who argue differently and say the americans will come down like a ton of bricks and completely wrecked the progress we've made building a consensus to support us across the muslim world. that group of people ultimately lost out and then the 9/11 attacks were the result. of course the massive uprising didn't happen but a lot of things the united states did

alienated people probably unnecessarily in some cases but other cases led to a substantial backlash against the united states and the end of 2004 bin laden issued this statement which i think it's to some a justification of what they had done but he said the strategy here is to soak the americans up in unsustainable interventions all over the world so that eventually they will run out of money and political capital and willingness to suffer even losses and then we will inherit the carcass. i think we certainly have engaged in a series of far-flung interventions and i think everybody knows that i was not in favor of invading iraq although i was also not in favor of leaving it had finished. but i don't think it's likely that we, the united states are going to engage in those large scale interventions in the future and i think the other

interesting thing that's happened in the muslim world since 9/11 this been a very sharp discussion and debate amongst the discussion of a just war. we've seen a shift so that in 2005 king abdullah of jordan brought together 500 islamic scholars and leaders from the muslim world who unanimously declared the ideology of al qaeda and said al qaeda muslims should not support al qaeda and specifically contradicted al qaeda as arguments about jihad and the validity of terrorism as a struggle so people in the west say where are the muslims? the haven't stood up and spoken out against al qaeda. they have. it happened in 2005. it's never happened again across

the muslim world so what i would suggest is al qaeda has lost a lot of ground since 1911. the leaders are looking over their shoulders looking scared and a lot of cases and the fact they have not been able to mount a successful attack on the united states since 9/11 isn't only because of the sheer brilliance of the counterterrorism issues. [laughter] but also that lost a lot of support. people don't support their agenda at the moment. >> take that a little further if you would. there has been a lot of commentary by people who look carefully at al qaeda. lawrence wright is an example, arguing that our enemy is made mistakes as severe as the ones we've made that everywhere al qaeda has a foothold it's ended up alienating people. that was true in iraq and across the muslim world as people get this ideology and the people who practice it they