it. >> vali nasr come author of the forces of the fortune comes before very much. >> thank you. it politics professor argues barack obama election marks a new era in u.s. politics based largely on many demographic changes. of the women's national democratic club hosts this 50 minute event. [applause] ..

>> the virginia races were at stake including the governorship in effect. in 1981 the new jersey governor's race coming closest in history, tom keane, a republican be is appointed by 1800 votes. history is repeating itself. know it is not. the reagan era which was 1981 to be best and characterized as the end the young and that not poor and not black.

white middle-class middle aged suburban married mom and dad kids they can grasp that vision very well. it is not the vision just we he grasped the portrayed over and over again in the popular culture brother leave it to beaver in the 60s or the cause the show show -- the cause the show in the eighties but democrats did not do well. win but majority was un-young, un-black, un-poor. how badly? we know but just bear with me on two statistics. democrats won 50% of the vote to only twice since 1970. that was jimmy carter 1976 and obama's 2008.

not clinton, truman, not jfk and if you go back further on the fdr, lbj, carter and obama exceeded the 50% mark. i think they're real majority the un-young, un-black, un-poor majority worked well for the republican party. it worked well because democrats succeeded. think of that for a moment. the new deal was geared to a nation that was 1/3 ill clad or ill housed or ill nourished. there was work to do and that was successful. by 1980 we had a relatively prosperous middle-class suburban country that was not worried about what government ought to be doing for them, but saw themselves as the proprietors of

government that taxed too much thomas been too much and put on the green eye shades of government. of course, ronald reagan is such a good example of that journey from the new deal democrat as he was to expounding a reagan revolution parker a fair real majority is over. it is over. three big revolutions are happening in the united states today. first, we have a new demography. that revolution is a racial revolution. when the real majority was in full swing, nine out of 10 voters were white. in 2004 that is 77% of the electorate that is the reasons why i say watch the number, it is declining. of course, it declines even

more in 2008 at 74%. partly because we have the first african-american run for president with barack obama. but that number was going to decline any way. why? because by 2042 whites would be a minority throughout the united states by 2042. of the census bureau a four years ago estimated 2050. and as a parent of a 12 year-old, i think about what country he is living in? and i see it already in the schools that she goes to. and her school, she is a minority of being white. what is going on? immigration. we have more foreign-born with and in the state of california today than people

in new jersey. there are more foreign-born in new york state and people and south carolina. these are big states. we're not talking about little states. latinos now outnumber many places african americans and fairfax county virginia, we cross -- crossed the threshold where they are a leading minority group and they think by 2015 they will be 29% of the total population in the united states. the old black-white dichotomy, the way we thought about race is over. that is coming to an end. the population trends, emigration is taking care of it but also something else. interracial marriage. i grew up in the 1950's and

'60's and i remember one day win "time" magazine came in our mailbox and there was a picture of a daughter of the secretary of state marrying a black man. that was extraordinarily controversial. that happened just a few months after the loving person is virginia case which i described at great lengths in the book. password 2004, the son of a president, a nephew, george p. bush son of the florida and governor, a hispanic, a biracial marrying a white woman in maine interestingly it is an interesting story because their race of george p. bush and his wife, so far i can tell is white, was never ever mentioned in any

of the news reports. but the portland sunday telegram actually ran an editorial noticing that the state was 97 percent white and the children in the state because of that lack of demographic universe -- diversity was missing out on something important. four out of 10 teenagers have dated somebody of a different race. not irish boy dtv itoh younger. [laughter] three out of 10 say these are serious relationships. interracial marriage has exploded in the united states today. barack obama got it. he understood in 2008 that his race was not a liability but in assets in this new demographic and fire met.

he said i think if you tell people we have a president in the white house on the shores of lake which iran and day sister half indonesian married to a chinese canadian, they will think he may have a better sense of what is going on in our lives and country and he would be right. he was. there is an old saying that demography is destiny. this racial revolution is huge. and one of the things as i wrote the book, i realized it was big but i did not realize just how big it really wasn't until you pore through the numbers but also the different stories that people have as they bring to the table. and that it is every where. is not a california revolution or new york

revolution, a revolution happening and kansas, iowa, places we don't think of where a huge amount of immigration and inter ratio marriage and all the rest is changing our country. that is a big story itself and certainly worth the book of itself. but then there is a family revolution. if you go back to the old majority with the typical american family mom, dad, my kids, usually to. today, one-third of americans describe their own family as being mom and dad and kids. according to stan greenberg. the number one description? love. when asked to describe what the families are in the open-ended question number one answer is love.

i can understand that. if you go back to 1968, 88% of the kids under the age of 18 live with a married parent. now 69 and falling. divorce rate has doubled from 1960 through 2000 but it has been pretty stable interestingly prayer at the beginning of our country most marriages ended in death but now and by choice. [laughter] 1965 percent of newborns had unburied mothers but today that is one-third. and rising. among african-american is of course, that number is very high as 68 point* 5% but the other races are catching up very rapidly.

between 1960 and 2000 number of single-parent families tripled between nine and 27%. cohabitation before marriage that was about half a million americans, of 4.7,002,000. getting close at 10 million by the time we get to the next census. of two-thirds of those born between 1963 and 1974 say the first union was a cohabitation for if you think of that, we know the story. i would give you one small example of my daughter going to a small catholic school. they were asked in an assembly. the boys were taken on a field trip and the boys were asked how many of them wanted to get married? a very small minority of seven graders raised their hands. i thought that was rather

striking. more americans live alone than ever before in our history. he may have seen a piece on that in "the washington post" and the number one place is manhattan. if you want today or look for somebody, manhattan. says this has a lot of downside in our culture. if you listen to what people listen to today to give you a few of the cleaned up their acts that i can. [laughter] copper roach, a broken home, i know my mother loves me but does my father even care? boeing 182. stay together for the kids say. what stood poem could fix this home? i read it every day could charlotte that is actually from their land. recapped dad's room his things were gone we did not see him no more.

i played my family there damages in me. this is a revolution with the family but a revolution where it is some serious policy consequences. i don't think we have dealt with that it is an important demographic reality and that would be a big story in and of itself program and we have a gay-rights revolution. and sometimes we forget how big a base storey this is. but 2003, new year's day, we'll get the newspaper story, who is the first baby born in the state? 2000 at three dawn breaks in the state of virginia? we have a new baby, the first baby of the year. 15 hours of labor,

labor, 5-pound, a 20-ounce girl one minute after midnight part of the parent's said she is adorable. she is perfect for joshi is brilliant. all of the stories read the same but not that time because now the new board had two mommies. [laughter] after 12 years together the couple decided to have a baby through artificial insemination then when a photographer came around and said we want the picture of the baby with the mom, the women said which mother would you like? [laughter] same-sex couples 99% of u.s. counties report having them in the 2000 census. half a million couples and many more to come in 2010. this is a big change. we forget how big it is.

of let me give you some idea. the very first question asked about gays 1965. the question was come america has many different types of people in it. nearby to know if you think each of these different types of people is more harmful or helpful to american life or do they harm one way or another? homosexuals? seventy% more harmful. 1982, sex between couples of the same sex is always wrong? yes. 70%. what about adopting children 1977? this is when it anita bryant was leading a crusade should not be allowed to adopt children 77%. what about gay teachers in your school? sixty-six% to post that. suppose your child was involved in a gay

relationship? eighty-two% said they would be very unhappy to learn about that. what about homosexuality on television and that suggests the do not show homosexuality? fifty-five% in 1989 were opposed to that. and finally the first question on gay marriage came in 1994 and 62% were opposed to it. how far have we come? we knew we were coming along way on this issue as early as 1998 because one of the best polling questions ever asked in the subject was it do you think by 2025, gay marriage will be legal in the united states? seventy-four% said yes. even though they were

opposed. 74% said yes. that included 73 percent republicans come as 74% democrats said he has come 81 percent of independents say yes. this revolution of gay-rights also involves different nations of families, there is an old line that heterosexuals want out of marriage and the gaze at one to and. [laughter] but this revolution is being forged by young people and there is a big it generational split but if you look at 18 through 29 year-old vs. age 65 and older son a percent of young people and with older americans that drops at 43. willing to vote for a gay candidate for any of this? 69% of young people say yes

but 42% say know that our seniors. can to people of the same sex the end of the same way a man and woman can be in of? young people, 65, seniors, 31 yes. would you permit your child to play at the home of a friend who lives with a gay parent? young people 70s seniors 39 yes. can make a person be a good will model? seventy-four yes among the young and 39 among the seniors. this revolution is fuelled by of values on the young people and it is not just tolerance for that revolution but that value is also being elevated by the racial revolution that is going on, being elevated by the family revolution where

are we going? one decade before they died one strategist said something pretty profound. i feel we have lost the culture war. that does not mean it will not be fought on other fronts but in terms of society in general, we have lost even when we win in politics, our republican victory translate to the kinds of policies we think are important. we have a family revolution, racial revolution, a gay-rights revolution and here is one more. a religious revolution. it is a big one because now we have got to our americans moving away from adherence to religion in terms of the location in terms of the institution or the building to being within the heart of

the individual. and that is reflected in declining church attendance. i will mentioned it briefly, my wife and i have another home that we will go to and have a large catholic shrine on christmas day at 10:00. we have a 10 year-old. just one of two kids at the mass. there were 75 people in this large building. the priest said we know it is small because everybody went the night before but to become a still as a child of the 1950's, quite striking. the writer says he remembers in 1957 his catholic church and the chicago neighborhood had 1100 seats filled to capacity every hour on the hour pork-barrel

7:00, noon, at 8:00, 9:00, so one. 1958 catholics were asked or polled about but mass attendance and a 75% said that i go every week. one kaskel at -- catholic bishop what it two choices, go to mass or go to hell. [laughter] most of us chose the mass. [laughter] only 40 percent of catholics but turned -- attended church now and the young catholic church has dropped at one out of five. 10% of all americans today describe themselves as being former catholics. that is astounding given in the hispanic migration to the united states. that should be bolstering the number of people in the pews. this does not mean we're not a religious country come

overwhelming numbers of americans say i believe then god. 82% say a person can be a good person in 56% say it is important to follow one's conscience even if that meant going against what the churches say and 53% say it is not necessary to strengthen religion or moral values part of that is an interesting new-line. while may 9 charges whether roman catholic or protestant churches are losing people, the naked church is packing them and 10,000 common 12,000, 20,000. wire they doing that? to market themselves so well they are a one-stop shop not just to go to church by to have your child care

for, shopping come the network, and the pastors of the very successful megachurch are very much aware of how they need to market themselves. rick warren did a wonderful job of this. yet despite all of that, we also have a country that is far less doctrine prevent even the megachurches do not emphasize of the doctrine. that is found upon my colleague who has a great line that says americans don't one to the last judgment with the almighty but a last discussion. [laughter] all of this chemists to a head in 2008. it is still there now if you look at the majority common

mccain did great. he got 55% of the white vote which is usually enough to get you elected. 56 of those aged 49. they are there break-in generation, those that came of age politically when ronald reagan was president. 52% of married voters come a 65% of the white protestants, a 55% of those who went to church weekly but if you look at that, you say all my goodness he should have been elected and 90% of the mccain vote was white. that would have worked very well even as recently as 1992 as march have talked about that, if that majority had been in place in 1992, i am sorry, it 1992 electorate

and 2008 barack obama would have lost. ed gillespie, the republicans get this by the way. they get it but they don't like to talk about it. [laughter] our majority already rests to heavily on white voters. given the current demographic voting percentages will not allow us to hold a majority in the future. he is right. the problem is they get it but do not know what to do about it. or they are struggling in terms of what they will do about it. the other thing that is happening, with every passing year, ronald reagan becomes a more distant memory so becomes a historical figure for many americans. obama's america is the emerging from all of this. while the book is about the 2008 election, it really is

about us and who we are as a people and why the majority that he got and 2008 is actually a very sturdy majority. but me explain when i read very briefly. his job approval rating according to the latest gallup poll of 55%, was very nice. 43% of whites like him and approved of his job. 44% of weekly churchgoers give obama passing grades. 59% of those that seldom go to church like what obama is doing but 76% of noncompliance approval of his job performance, 93 percent of african-americans say we like what he is doing. we like him.

hispanics, 72% approve of his job performance. 79% of those 65 or older approved a relatively low lark a 60% of young people give him a high grade. young voters are crucial because all of the revolutions that i just mentioned are for most in their age group in your own voters are key to understanding the country's future. we know that with fdr because those that came of age in the 1932/36 and stayed with the democrats did we can still see signs they're staying with the democrats when we get to senior people. we know that reagan republicans, young people that came of age in

19801964, 1966 casting their first bout gave the republican party a very strong infusion of political vitality. and obama comes to the basis on which the democrats can build a new majority. what we have is a new real majority. barack obama's majority protests levied the democrats will win every race as virginia may show us or new jersey might. but we are at the dawn of a new era. i am not sure bree would have said that in 1981 about ronald reagan. but we can look back with a sense of realism and say it is a new era. in politics, demography is destiny. hall that was something written in the book the real

majority and it is still trooper everyone to look read our political tea leaves to the future, demography is destiny. it is up to the democrats to exploit that the new demography but the fact that they have that edge and politics is about us and them and add its core, people have to think this person is on my side and one of us. richard nixon was the subject of a border fee title one of us in which he described nixon as having empathy with the suburban white middle-class voter. today, one of us is entirely different. our demography is our destiny. know we're out the part that we have been waiting for to get your questions. thank you.

[applause] >> the hostesses will collect. can you hear me? no? held. i have a microphone but i have a couple of questions already. hot while most of us would agree tolerance is preferable to intolerance, is of the new cultural individualism at odds with the community of the democratic party values? >> yes. there is a great line that we have a two-party system

because if we didn't they would have to be invented. we have a republican party that of course, the use freedom and individual rights and more libertarian minded but democrats have always placed and value those they also very much value equality of opportunity. i think it is that particular value in many respects that is on the rise. unquestioned. we go through moments in our political history, it is not one or the other but we want it all. but we go through moments where we are revising not our values but how we define them. of these revolutions have created a moment where we are rethinking, what is

freedom or individual rights? what is equality of opportunity mean in this day and age? >> you did not mention women in your talk as a group for as a revolution. what do see happening to women as a group in this country? is there a coming revolution? >> that revolution is very much underway in the process. of course, i did not pay as much attention to that as they should appear but i talk a lot about it in the book. the revolution is happening not just of the gender role in family where we have the increase rise for example, of which women are the primary earner in the household and more househusband's. that number is rising fairly dramatically.

what is the woman's place in our society? the right when my wife decided to keep her made in me when we were married in the early 1990's, that my mother who was a child of the early 20th century was totally appalled by that decision premise just very glad that she decided to marry me. [laughter] education. women outnumber men in the college classrooms today by a considerable number. for every 130 women there are about 100 men. these women move along on a fast career track which is a big shift in the country. >> a couple of related questions. demography helps explain obama's win, but will is sustain him if he does not fulfill his promises? and phrased another way, can

continuing economic recession undermine the politics of the demography that you described? >> there is nothing like success with politics. the best thing that can happen to any party is they have some success but not total. think about it. when you have total success success, a candidate for office says reelect me because i have had some success but there is more to be done. that sustained good democratic party for a long time. that enacted the rest of the new deal, at lbj, about what is over with four health care. the issues in politics matter a great deal and certainly the economy, health care, afghanistan and iraq and all that matters a great deal for sure.

there were two things that political parties had to be very careful about. one is a success and is the other is failure. in between, you are okay. failure hurts a party tremendously. what we know about the beginning of a new era is it is preceded by a failed president. i don't think it is the be all or and all but it will sustain above it and the democrats and gives them a buoyancy and our politics that republicans don't seem to get as a party. >> you see demography having an impact on controversial issues like health care reform? >> yes. no question. but if you look at just health care and thinking about 2010, the shifts and demography that i talk about

may not show as readily. where the electorate is more likely to be old and we may revert to the majority. but of course, with various gay-rights 10 gay marriage but it shows up also in policy questions dealing with heterosexual families and gender roles without any questions. for example,, but beginning of the obama administration, the first piece of legislation he signed is a reflection of what is going live in our society and he gets it. that is a very important things that presidents get the changes under way. most people don't. they tend to think with the old mind-set. >> what percentage of eligible gone voters

actually voted? how can they be inspired to vote as a group? >> looking at 200863% overall turnout, young people come if i remember right word just above 500 or 55 -- 50 or 55. that will always be an issue. no question. it is a big issue right now in new jersey and virginia because of the shift of said demographics and those electorates particularly in virginia of real looking at the old maturity coming out to elect a republican governor it would seem pricing democrats would be very wise to tie themselves to the president they may

find they have greater success. midterms are not great but the presidential elections will be very important in terms of turnout and i think we will continue to see that especially young people if you get them wants the theory is you can get them again. >> what happens to the hispanic vote in the last election and reduce see the cuban vote? >> overall hispanics 2/3 four obama because bush won 40 or 44% in 2004 but look what happened. in 2005 republican house passes a law that says if you are a priest and helping an illegal immigrant you can be charged with a felony. people get that message. of course, in 2006 when bush wanted to do something about immigration reform we cannot

send 12 million people back on a bus and can not break up families. bush was a weekend. but the problem was not just the failed policies but also the missed opportunities which opportunities for his presidency and the spanish got that message and voted democrat in big numbers and justice sotomayor his hugely important. to keep that though and immigration vote matters in terms of sustaining. >> also the cuban vote affected by generations? >> exactly. fidel castro came to power in 1959 npr through the second and into the third

generation. that has less resonance and as it does the importance of that vote in florida for the republicans is diminishing. in part because the issue what self seems to be fading and certainly the latest generation of cuban americans is off to other things as is fidel castro. [laughter] >> how will the demographics affect the rise of an effective third-party? >> obama's biggest problem is not to republicans but populism. it comes from the implosion of the republican party because what is happening is when they have that old real majority was also a real majority fuelled by the south. now they are locked up. the more they are locked up the worse off they are.

we even see that for the data of 2010, republicans are doing okay but way behind. new york state, which had a sizable contingent had three and they had to buy the time we meet again. unbelievable used to have a lot of republican members. now it is zero republicans in congress. when that happens you have a hybrid were funny thing starts to happen where people who were once moderate republicans move into the democratic party and that coalition enlarges more but it could read to fracturing as we have seen in health care. >> >> host: of the big revolutions was in

increasing tolerance by the young? but does not go with populism or any of those. >> it doesn't but i don't think they are paying that much attention to win back if you look at who was at the two-party they are not young people by and large. what is to link them mr. of life experience for the fact they are going to school there day chain of diverse race the very definition will change very rapidly. newt gingrich understood this and he actually got it changed one forms like education people could check more than one raised. of course, that makes sense. and how does one define oneself? there are many terms for

hispanic and latino and latina but it will be a slippery in the 21st century not the way we have been accustomed to thinking about it. >> you quoted numerous polls in your talk have you noticed any change in the public's willingness over the years to participate in the polls? >> that is a big problem with the polls because you have some of the kingdom's who wants to be interviewed by a pollster? what about a do not call list? trying to get more sophisticated heat getting new-line your cellphone i had won the other night about the virginia race. i don't know why. i don't live in virginia. [laughter] i did not answer i am sorry to say but there's more of that and more on line. the industry itself notes that this is a big and important issue but at

because there are so many, you can screen out which ones are not so good and which ones are fairly reliable. >> what about the independent voter equated with the agnostic or acs? how do these groups fit to into your thinking? a think they've been done on committed religious. >> right. if you look at the secular or those that are not attend ding had is not a situation where it is driven liberal or conservative necessarily make can find a lot of not attending liberals were church attending conservatives.

i think there is this connection that than nonreligious the tender is defining for himself or herself for about and doing that in our country now we have seen a rise in the last 10 months of been dependents in terms of affiliation and that is due to the implosion of the republican party which is still a huge problem. if there is some disaffection with obama's those independence are not moving to the republicans they don't find that an acceptable choice as we just saw in that nbc news poll more interest in the third parties but again, that is why i say upon his biggest problem is populism. >> another question from the head table, what are the factors currently fuming far rise?

isn't the bailout of wall street or the auto companies? winehouse? >> figure part of that is a great question. [laughter] i would say there is a poll done this week that shows in terms of the bailout, who is benefiting from that? the auto companies, the big banks but not the. i was not benefiting from that. that will be a challenge for this president you not only have to talk about values and do in the context of the demography but where people see those values are made more real in their own lives. if you go back to ronald reagan even though 1981 was the beginning of a big era of american politics reagan's job approval rating

began to plummet as the economy plummeted. with the economy rose seven the president talking about peace and freedom and community and neighborhood and all of that values' rhetoric starts to resume with the public. they are very practical minded. i love these questions. >> once the jobs start flowing? >> right. but to the majority that obama's constructed his much sturdier than people think. even though he is being buffeted by a bad economy or health care and how we will deal with the issue and the legislative process and also by the progressive cents a year public option is not good enough, and buy gays to say you are not moving fast enough, that majority he

constructed is able to withstand those waves. >> last question possibly you have just answered prayer call lot of those who voted for all, have less enthusiasm for him this year some of that is inevitable that can the coalition be put back together? you say it has not gone anywhere. >> i don't think it has fallen apart. it is very much there but if you look where obama is today with the public steve thank you is exactly for he was november 42008. if he has fallen, it is a short slide in and i don't think that will be as rapid or small token of the club's

appreciation when is the last time you feel good after a speaker? [applause]

covering the supreme court for the "usa today" newspaper she has just written this book. you got justice scalia to cooperate on this book. how did you do that? gimmicky was a reluctant subjects and initially said he would not sit for interviews but i did some research into its early life and family story in his father emigrated from sicily had so much research body essentially traded information and he tried to tap my stories and eventually he sat 41 dozen interviews. >> host: is he tough to do? do when he is a great

conversationalist by a likes to talk. he was interested when i was finding and also when his critics were saying and i would come back and say this is what you said and this is the response i am getting and i give him another shot to respond he was an easy interview because he did not back away from his controversial statements for every interview with him i cut it off for i left the room because i could be there two hours and i think i do not want to wear out my welcome budget he was engaged. >> what do you think has been his effect on american interests prudence? >> that is what is most fascinating. i originally signed a contract in 2006 when he was still pretty much in dissent but in the recent years, his trajectory has changed and

is in the majority moorpark rethink of last year the of gun casey wrote the majority giving individuals the right to own handguns under the second amendment he was much more successful and nobody would predict that in 1986 when he first came onto the court. >> ms. biskupic is the author of an american original.

>> pulitzer prize-winning author of bright shiny lives have a new book out. what is the icbm? >> a rocket with a hydrogen bomb in the warhead fired into space and travels at 16,000 miles per hour. 67,000 miles then comes down and strikes. there is no way to stop it.

they have never been used. you when i would not be having this conversation if not for these people. they built the weapon not to make war but it is the first weapon in the history of humankind which was built not to use but to deters. >> i think it tells a story of bernard and the scientist for you was something about bernard shaw river? he was six years old when he came here during world war i from germany. two months before we declared war on germany. he grew up in texas and joined the army air corps and a protege of general arnold the founder of the u.s. air force during world war ii. then went to work on bringing science into the air force.

and he saw this what then would guarantee the piece because if we had it, we could deter the russians from doing anything and he ended up creating a nuclear stalemate. and neither side could get a surprise attack on the other because they would destroy themselves in the same process. >> in the book you talk about the resistance and can you talk about that? >> i have been tremendous resistance from curtis come with the herod days head of the strategic air command and the bomber from world war ii went over the edge in the israeli years and became

a model of dr. strange love. so they read -- ran into tremendous resistance they overcame it. and eisenhower understood what they were trying to do and gave them carte blanche just in time. he signed off september 13 and had his heart attack 10 days later. >> how long did you research? >> 14 years altogether but tend intensive years. i did 52 interviews with shriver and another 120 people and everybody who was alive for work to with him chasing the agrium -- group reaper because they were older. they are cooperating. every ready talk to this man and tell him the truth and they gave me his papers which and his diaries would

tour valuable because this book is not written as the academic history but the fast-paced novel because i believe in recreating history for the readers and bringing them into history. that is what i do. >> 15 years of research is a long time. did your view of the cold war changeup early days in a point*? >> yes. we think of the cold war as one longtime like that a sage. i discovered it was not. it was a point* overlooked. in the beginning of the cold war, it was a very warm confrontation between the soviet union and the united states with both sides jockeying for power. if either had a misstep we would have nuclear war the nuclear weapons do not just

a story cities but ecological effects and block out the sun with nuclear winter and destroy the whole northern hemisphere in a war. and schrieffer and company prevented that from happening. >> is are there any bernards and the military right now? >> i hope so. i don't know who but i hope so. this man was famous within the air force and he became the father of a high a modern technology. when he died, there are 10 four-star generals in the united states air force and in nine of them marched behind his coffin and said she said we will not bury him as a four-star general but as a chief of staff and it was a moving locations. >> thank you so much.