and how you kind of have to really push through a lot of things not to lose sight if it and there are some messages in there that are fairly controversy. i'm already getting hit a little bit on the internet because i am a strong advocate of gti as well as finding the work that you loved so that will all be in the book. >> mika brzezinski. fattah joe scarborough where you currently reading? >> let's see, and actually reading harold evans, buy paper

chase which is a remarkable -- you talk about when the newspapers or in their heyday, carroll cracked spy cases and discovered he had a remarkable career in the times of london and it's a great book and i am reading a couple of other books by william faulkner i go through line by line every few years and another by british historian alistair horne which is a great history of paris. it is about his enjoyable history book as i have ever read secure but cannot earlier this year. when is your next one? >> i don't know. we got in the top ten for two or three weeks and that was great but it's kind of tough fighting political books and this environment unless you want to

write a polemic and that's not really my style, so i don't know. the best part of writing the book was the book tour because we would go out and have these great crowds. would the democratic and republican and was like having town hall meetings all over the country and we were hearing back in june and july what is showing up in the polls now so that was the fun part of it and i love writing, to lead the whole process of people on the right calling you a socialist like my mom and people on the left calling me a nazi it gets tiring after a while but next time if i write something i will write about my dog. >> is going wrote on your reading list? [laughter] >> it is not. nothing against sarah palin but i read presidential biographies

who knows she gets elected president i may read a book after that. spread joe scarborough. >> in the latest book, "forces of fortune," vali nasr, senior adviser to the special envoy for afghanistan and pakistan looks at the growth of the muslim middle class in the the women's national democratic club of washington, d.c. is the host of this one hour ten minute talk. >> it's very good to be here and also the capstone speaker for your, for this year. i'm going to talk about the topic on my book but much more broadly about the muslim world about the united states perspective on the muslim world relations to the muslim world where we go from here with the muslim world. rot of the past decade since the events of 9/11 result of the

muslim world. it's been in the media and it's become part of the language of the politics. it mattered a lot to us and the thinking often is the united states or the west and muslim world are not on the right path, they are not on the same page and we have got a lot about how to fix that relationship and how to particularly think about writing those things that we think are not going right in the muslim world. that context probably nothing worries us more in the west than the question extremism and the perception that the muslim world thinks too much about conservative ideas and is too permissive towards extremism and that this is something that is going to be a threat or a major foreign policy consent.

now, much of that is true and the extremism is an issue of paramount concern. it is a foreign policy consideration and it has become rightly or wrongly a major focus of u.s. foreign policy and to that extent also the way in which by and large many americans, many in the west view the muslim world but there is also a tendency that it becomes too consuming, it becomes something that is the only thing that matters when we think about the muslim world and it also reduces every political religious strength of 1.3 billion people in an area stretching from the atlantic to the pacific under one if you would consideration. now, my beginning point is as important as extreme as some or as conservatives and fundamentalism has been and is

to the muslim world and to the concerns that the united states and the west have about the muslim world. it is not the only thing that is happening that is deserving of our attention in the muslim world, and in fact those other things, most important of which some of the economic factors i will talk about that we don't pay attention to work or not overtly concerned with will in the end be the solution to the things that we are very concerned with. if we thought about a lot of the discussion in this country about the muslim world it's been about how do you get the muslims to think differently about their own religion, about the world, about the west. how do you get them to move away from conservative ideas or supported extremism towards so-called moderation, coexistence with the west. and if that is the goal or the objective, some of the other trends that we are not thinking about are much more important.

now, in my opinion economics is a very big issue. we often don't think in terms of economics about the muslim world. there are some things we understand intuitively. we understand that there is a relationship between poverty and extremas on. we think that when he laughed poverty where you have a lack of opportunity that translates into circumstances that lead people to support extremism. among at least the more sophisticated of the world they also understand the problem has to do with the way in which things are done in the muslim world and in to many places, you have a government controlled economies that are not growing any more, that the government controls too many things and is not able to provide jobs. it is not to provide the opportunity for the population. it is providing less and less services, that is what durham

education, sanitation, the basic services and you look at the demographics of the muslim world where country after country excess of 65% of the population sometimes even more are categorized as a youth. just having that many young people struggle in and of itself let alone if there is no job market that would actually be able to observe them or provide them a path to a better life or the upward mobility. these things we understand even though they don't dominate the discussion about the muslim world we understand that these problems exist, so but when we think in this way we think the solution to them of some world was development, aid, job creation, essentially helping the bottom of the society in order to stabilize it and provide it with some opportunity. this is important but this is

not the kind of economics issues i have in mind. if we look at the muslim world and you ask many americans what they think about the muslim world they probably tell you they are to religious or anti-western or extremist. but it is also true large parts of the muslim world sit outside of the global economy but are not integrated into the global economy. and by that i do not mean that people in the muslim world don't sell things to the west and they don't buy things from us. what i mean is that in large part of the muslim world are not a part of the globalization supply chain by which i mean when we think about other areas of the world like east asia or latin america or eastern europe there are those economies produce things that are components to things built elsewhere and then are built

elsewhere and ultimately are things you and i by. but if he went to wal-mart today you don't find too many things that say made in the arab world. there are not many components or things that have components that are built in the arab world. yes we trade with many parts of the muslim world. we buy oil for agricultural products and they by finished goods but that does not mean those economies are actually participating in the global economy in the manner that is a brazillian argentinian, caribbean and these other economies to. that is a very important fact. when we talk about a globalized world in which the large parts of the world is integrated economically and to one another. that production, trade, etc creates relationships and networks between people sitting outside of that global economic web does have consequences and

those consequences i think have a lot to do with the reality on the ground in the muslim world and very profound ways. one of the most important consequence is that it has is that many parts of the muslim world lack if he would middle class that would essentially be the anchor of society, culturally, politically and economically. now why does the middle class that? if we thought about the history of the west itself, which we often preached to the muslim world that it ought to copy and it ought to follow we often think that what matters most in the west that is relevant to the muslim world is protestant reformation, that it is luther that the muslims should look for. in other words somebody who comes and changes religious doctrine. i disagree. i think the muslims need adam smith, they don't need a listener. [laughter]

if you look at european history, if you look at where the thrust of the originally arose and about the geneva or scotland and nearly protestants, scotland in the early reformation period would be something like the taliban couple. it was a highly puritanical rigid and intolerant place where children were executed for not observing religion properly. now what happened that this scotland became the seat of the industrial revolution that it produced such luminaries as david hume and adams met it wasn't because of a religious reformation but it was because of the rise of trade and commerce. was because of capitalism. it's capitalism that made the west in many ways into what is and it is capitalism that the muslim world in that sense requires. the class essentially drove this in the west was a middle class that was rooted in markets and

was routed in commerce and trade. when i speak people often say there is a middle class in the arab world, there is a middle class or there is a middle class here and there. but what we mean by middle class it doesn't just mean a sort of relatively affluent, relatively prosperous middle society. what we essentially that middle society that is tied to the market forces and that is tied to commerce. if we thought about the parts of the muslim world you have a middle class but it's of generating wealth, it is living off of wealth so if we went to saudi arabia or algeria or egypt there is a middle class that middle class is not producing the budget of the government of egypt. it is rather lifting of what the

government gives either in terms of salaries, contracts and entitlements so it is not like the european middle class. it's also not like the latin american middle class of today. it's not like the indian middle class of today. it's not like the chinese middle class and it's not like the east european middle class and that is an important factor. in fact if we look around the muslim world in a general sense we could see where the muslims are most integrated into the global economy and where they have a middle class that looks like the middle class elsewhere you have a lot more moderation, a lot better news and where the muslims are most separated from the global economy and in particular they like a middle class that is like the middle class in latin america, eastern europe and asia, you have a lot more extremism and this is not coincidental. in other words, long and short issues, not islam. the issue is the economy. the problem is not the muslims

are not integrated in terms of culture into the world. the problem is they are not integrated economically to the world. when i was doing the research on this the question was how do we know that this is true? how do we know it exists and how do we know that if the muslim world did have a middle class it would actually act the way that we think? ..

>> i am not advocating to buy as a place to get 20% to return nine your money but dubai has fallen because of bad capitalist practices but it is bad capitalist practices nevertheless bracket is where it is because it did in to the global economy and showed lack of discipline to how it spent this money which is not unique if you just look a few miles north of hear the same thing have been barakat 1997 where the southeast asia crisis for countries or third guilty of bending the rules and engaging in bad capital this behavior than paying for it.

but this is what not is interesting. what is interesting is to buy a is a relatively poor persian gulf duty. it is surrounded by a very rich reserves. dubai does not have it. it could not read by on wheels money it has to rely on many another way it decided to change its laws and rules and laydown a lot of high-speed internet fiber and broadband and built a lot of facility to encourage businesses to come to do by. what happened, it dubai itself does not have much of a population. it became a virtual place where muslims could engage the global economy in the way they could not with their own country.

dubai became a place lebanese, jordanian, middle- class, could engage in european, asian, african american, when every want want, and it became a place of prosperity and whether or not it was the right to run decisions but what is very obvious that if you creates eight market economy, as a catalyst they will behave just like everybody else and as wildly as badly as they were. the other side is also quite interesting that dubai was the superlatives the largest theme-park comment tallest building and the largest mall and in many ways, it became the anti-the system to what to

be associate with muslims that it is all about the other world and if they don't care about life. that is definitely not to dubai. when interesting thing before it began to falter, it was the most desired place for irked muslims to live other than their own country. the most desired placed for muslims to visit on vacation. those that went there on vacation were by and large the middle-class. and they went to teach at not just because it would say spirit and a call placed or new vujacic very strict laws and practices come when they went to dubai because it is a cross between las

vegas and at disneyland and rodeo drive. [laughter] that is what they liked about it and that is what attracted them which also said that the muslim middle-class behave like a middle-class everywhere which is the enormous amount of manic consumption and the desire of improvement of life. it is in my book one man said to me and i really like this place because you can stay in five-star hotels and you can pray in a five-star mosque. [laughter] his conception of religion went with his taste. it is a vacation of every conception of the west has of the muslim world which the driving force for the muslims is some kind of scriptural directive that to

the muslims are almost like automated robots. but it shows if you create a place you cannot generate save muslim middle-class it is what you associate with al qaeda and extremism, let me give you another case and the fact is turkey which also is equally poignant example. turkey was a very secular country for a long time. associated that with them but today it is a very prosperous relatively all couldn't country and is a member of the cheech would be which is one of the largest 20 economies in the world which they recently have their segment with

president obama and istanbul has become a major flock for tourism and business. turkey has an open political system that you can find. it is not perfect but better than most others. but is not secularism that brought it to where it is but where turkey has got to where it is because integrated into the global economy and erotically is the non muslin middle-class that has led the way. how? turkey in the '70s and '80s was a bankrupt economy much like brazil, argentina and mexico had a lot of dead bird but it did exactly what they did and went to the imf and ask for help. the imf said to the same thing which is you have to restructure and change your economy and trade with the world. you cannot protect the large

industries with tariffs and pour money into then you have to let them die and put the money what the rest of the world is willing to buy. they were dependent on government handouts and support. who was the ones that would take of the mandate? those that were not protected which were small-town businessmen. you can go to turkey there is a little city you're ever on a tourist visit to it is not too far and in the middle of nowhere. and i would say in american terms it is like south bend indiana. [laughter] middle of the country, not associated with a big metropolis not the cultural hub, it is fiercely

conservative small-town values but also very capitalist and open. today when you go there, the city is one of the major industrial centers six or 7% of all denim jeans and the world is manufactured here. when company manufactures just 1% of all denim jeans globally. every single global point* by stem from here. the city exports furniture, of other common many different things. it is a very wealthy little town. the businessmen there are very wealthy but very pious as small-town businessmen. a beautiful negative a mosque in the middle of the city at dawn friday the large mercedes benz plow in

front of it and people go to this and they do business at the moscow as they do rotary clubs are particular churches and when you look at the businessmen is they are very religious but not in support of extremism. it is simple if you sell leather you understand jihad is not good for business. [laughter] and generally people were making enormous amounts of money are interested in a row just like those who go to buy there not interested in the after world but this world and the religion uc among these people is very conservative and very small town. but it is religion that is about values and ethics not political action and struggle.

when i was a graduate student, i had a professor who worked on brazil in dealing with a question about why so many brazilians were becoming or the being the catholic church and becoming pentecostal and his answer was because catholicism in the '80s and '90s weren't being asked to fight on the side of the four and support leftist causes and they did not lead to do it there for there we're opting out of the religion that was about political action if read to a religion based on faith and piety and values. so this has not happened in turkey because we preached to them they ought to be moderate but the market has dictated to them that their economic interest and class

interest requires of them to adopt a form of religion or interpretation that is compatible with their business interest. now turkey is very instructive because of the 20 years it has invested in the exports into the world, you could go to banana republic, wal-mart, and you find things that same made it in turkey. it relies on what these businessmen produce and sell to the world. it is important to see why the interest of these businessmen pushed us into the direction of democracy or openness. a year and a half ago, there rumors they plan that may have a military coup because the military was not happy

with the choice of president. i asked a very pious tycoon what it did he think would be the impact of military intervention? he said it won't matter what rules turkey they have to listen to us because we pay for the government we provide the jobs the budget of the government comes from us. we pay taxes. it is a very western formula but much of the middle east you do not find that. country after country gets a very small percentage of its money from taxes. where do they get their money? definitely not from productive businessmen therefore there is no need to listen to them or open the political system war for democracy or openness. it is also true the up and coming middle class is not

necessarily liberal. it is conservative but it is interested in gauging the world. it is lawn it is forbidden for a practicing muslim to pay interest or receiving interest it is like remedial catholicism if you go by the book you should not have money in a bank or an economic venture that pays interest and you should not pay interest. for a very long time muslims talked about interest-free banking which is called islamic finance and there were always clear six who talked about it and it sounded nice of a piece of paper, but they could never make it work. they could never make it work. not until european and

american banks decided to make it work. city bank deutsche a bank, at about 10 years ago decided to get into the islamic finance business. now they have made it into a global area of business. it was $45 trillion now that big in terms of global economy but growing at about 30% per year the past decade. even last year with year global economic downturn it grew by 29% in february more than we think for instance it is now quite common to issue islamic bonds that to our interest free and it is even in western societies

such as ford motor company finance the acquisition of aston martin or caribou coffee which is say united states second largest specialty coffee retail shop is owned by islamic mutual fund that purchased it with the islamic bonds. the question is why would the western banks roll up their sleeves and decide to produce islamic products? friday as sears and bankers look for ways to make money. it could be credit swaps lower islamic bonds but they realize there is a market of people who have money and are willing to engage in a financial activity but provided it is compatible

with values of record a few years ago the bank of chicago announced it would provide islamic car loans that were not based on interest and it had a huge demand there is a line out of the bank for islamic car loans. people who buy cars tend to be middle-class and up. clearly even in this country , among some western population, the largest demand for islamic financial products. what does that tell us is exactly the point* of engagement between the global economy and the rising segment of muslim population that has the means to investor read like to invest. from people who buy bonds generally are investors those who have cash or the

means to put money away. but they have pious values but obviously there looking to make money and looking to make investments. there for what we are seeing is the western banks have already begun to engage in this middle-class in a substantial if -- substantive way. also in the cultural sphere there has been a proliferation of satellite tv and religious programming on satellite television but one of the most interesting things about what we are seeing is a new breed of muslim or televangelists who preached a very different message and preach a message of moral by year's end of

six and social action and affixes with the west. they are zero widely popular easy to give the sermons and insurance if you look at the audience to is by and large a particular segment of society which is the better to do middle-class and up fed is business friendly and serves their interests. keep looking around the muslim rolled above what we see as evidence is first of all, this is a middle-class emerging ritzy extent possible with the rise of the market economies and where it arises it does

bring a very different attitude toward religious values and dealing with the west and toward issues that particular matter to us which is extremism and attitudes toward al qaeda, etc.. it is not secular. we should not expected necessarily to me but not whether or not it is secular but what kind of engagement to divorcee or what kind of attitudes? the middle-class itself is not a huge amount. we have no stable prosperous democracy unless you have stable prosperous middle class. and muslim countries will go the way of latin american countries and eastern european could trees they

have to produce that segment of society and review have that kind of a middle-class when it can define and dominate the public comment idiocy a shift in the direction of which those countries think about their future and the direction that they are going. for instance there is one poignant recent and that is the case of an did he share. we went back to 2002 our perception is very much it was going to be a very radical organization. and tied to the things that we think of radicalism comment and seminary education supporting a very strong terrorist

organization that was tied to al qaeda and capable like the of eight of the discotheque in djakarta and the like. fast for the decade today it has pretty much included -- imploded not just sit in donations are better than that pakistan is 30 egyptians that is not true. it is imploded because it is really not able to get nourishment from this society not because indonesia has solve the poverty problem it is a poor country but because the core of the indonesian society at the middle you have a middle-class tied into the global economy and do actually do see it made it into the ship products in america shops and the major

oil producer the and come from we'll go steadily down thinking of leading opec and it relies increasingly on global trade and the motto is tie line, the singapore, japan is trying to integrate itself into the global economy and the consequence is that you steadily have a decline in support for extremism that does not mean it is a liberal there are plenty of conservatives but there is still terrorists in indonesia there is a bombing only a few months ago but if you look up the results the country overwhelmingly voted for the president's

party-line against the fundamentalist party. and then it shrunk and the radical groups are also shrinking. what happened in indonesia is having a direct correlation between the rise of the middle class with the economy and the fed declined of extremism and creation of a perspective of middle society that is supported of shared global values of participation in the larger world. if we look at country after country looking at other countries we optimally would be the defining battle. for a very long time in the west, we felt the solution to the muslim world would come from an am i and cleric

but actually the change agent is in not. it will come from the market's. the change of ideas comes when you have the prevalence of market forces. buydown dae stop here? i will be happy to answer any questions you have. thank you. [applause] >> please rate your questions down there are cards on each table the hostesses will collect them and bring them here and we will ask the question. i will begin his democracy is due to lack of programs in the muslim world? >> yes. in the sense of a stable democracies require

prosperous a stable of middle-class and historic they would look at many different cases, there is always a way for relating the level of society and a level of the global economy it would be impossible to manage societies with government. yes. countries have a better chance to become democratic if they have a viable middle-class and accountable to global forces and open to trade and have a middle-class. once they get a democracy it is much more likely they can preserve, sustained and build on it if they have them but a class and economic base.

>> is that even a valid term? >> in my opinion, it is for the reason first the muslims themselves believe they belong to the muslim world. they do have a sense of shared identity or common interest at some levels. but at the same time it is valid as using that term the western world. there is equal diversity but a general understanding of their shared history of religion, cultural and a sense of identity that separates them from the rest of the role. not to exaggerates along gain to a single society, but in a general

sense, there is a family of countries that have a minimal the shared identity. >> what is the difference between oil-producing countries and nine oil-producing countries in terms of the middle-class? >> oil-producing countries generate wealth and it is the wrong kind in the sense that it is not tied to market forces and at the same time not responsible for a generation of wealth in society. as a result with the boston tea party for morale of domino representation without taxation come if you don't pay taxes you do not deserve representation. that is a long and short. also it remains outside of the supply chain of globalization.

those that are compelled to participate unless they can get money from the outside with a sense of other things. stay government has to have coffers to pay things. either they get the money from the outside or somebody gives them the money like a rich grandfather or the house to earn the money in the on the play is to find some kind of economic activity the what -- the rest of the road is willing to renegade. you are either born and entitled with wealth or you have to earn your money. there is a big difference between oil-rich countries in the middle east and south korea and taiwan. it is very similar to the difference between bill gates and bill gates grand children.

with a generation of wealth is it transformative of itself in terms of what he does to society and his people. it is actually degenerative. . .