and it may not be the best analogy that we are basically trying to regulate cars that are speeding down the road at 100 miles an hour that are only five feet requires very careful regulation to make sure that the cars when the obvious solution is to have the cars have a greater buffer between them and follow. that is capital. i don't think we have enough three is solves a lot by putting in much more privatization of losses rather than the socialization of losses we have now. i want to reinforce the idea very much about, but having heard this idea makes a lot of sense to me and i move us in the

direction of taking care of a lot of the fragmentation and they think that getting the office of financial the problem is that the next crisis almost certainly happen in the way that the last one did and we need to constantly be vigilant rather than behind it is going to be useful the ofr can help us that way. getting that up and offered a spirited discussion for your public service. it was very helpful today. the majority committee in the cram in my office. i appreciate all span. ???????c

"washington journal" continues. host: our topic for the next 45 minutes, how the debt deal will play out in that election. joining us, mike glover, a senior reporter with the

associated press. and james pindell, with wmur- tv. let me start with mike glover. how is it playing in iowa? guest: most of them, you're right, have come out against it. it plays, depending on where you are looking in the political spectrum. you have to remember, these people are not running an electorate, they are running in the very activist wing of the republican party, and the very activist wing of the republican party does not like the deal. all of the republican candidates are running against the debt deal, and that sells pretty well with the wings of the republican party that will show on caucus night. host: and it shows up well with iowa conservatives? caller: yes, the iowa

conservative -- the iowa conservatives are more conservative than the mainstream republican party. host: and in new hampshire? caller: i am coming to you that does not -- i am coming to you from a state that does not have a state tax. obviously the independent voters can vote in the primary. people are not really engaged -- for those presidential candidates, except for -- jon huntsman has been in the state all week and has supported the plan. everyone else has not. when they're not supporting it, they say they need a deal, but we just need a different, more conservative deal. that is the thing, right down

the center before the political mainstream is. host: huntsman is one of the top tier candidates that came out and said i think this debt deal is a good one. does that hurt him in new hampshire? guest: he has to find a way to stand out. he is finding a way to stand out and say he was for it. when the freeze is he kept repeating here in new hampshire about the deal was the -- one of the ways he kept repeating -- one of the words he kept repeating here in new hampshire about the deal was the word quote reasonable," versus of quote ideological -- vs. "ideological." host: how does that compare with what he said in iowa?

caller: it was the same thing, to do what we can to accomplish what we are trying to accomplish. the problem is that the base of the republican party in this state is not interested in reasonable solutions. they are interested in a fairly hard core ideological solution to things, and that is not what they are after. i do not think it sells very well here, i do not think it goes over very well here, and i do not think it works with the elements driving the republican party in this state. host: michele bachmann and ron paul voted against it. michele bachmann, out with a new ad about the debt deal. here it is. >> i will not vote to increase the debt ceiling. it goes completely contrary to common sense and how i grew up in iowa. so here is congress, watching these people borrow more money that they do not have so that my

children can be further in debt it. we have to deal with the economic reality, and i have the will and the courage to see this through. i am michele bachmann, and i approve this message. host: mike glover, how is she doing in ohio -- in iowa? caller: she is doing well. michele bachmann and mitt romney are tied for the lead. michele bachmann spent almost nothing here. but she is almost tied with him for the lead among republicans, and she has touched off a sense of excitement amongst conservative elements of the republican party. she is doing quite well. i do not know how you can explain it in rational terms. she engenders a sense of enthusiasm, of spunk, whatever. she had a lot of republicans excited, and she is near the top of the field and all the polls i

have seen. host: mitt romney is still doing well in iowa, despite having a low profile. from what we are reading, a low- profile across the country. but there has been talked about him not being able to do that well in iowa, yet he is still at the top. guest: he is still right near the top of the polls. all that is based on the millions of dollars he spent in the last election cycle campaigning in iowa. he is very well known, has high name identification. he has kind of put a lot of moderate republicans -- he is seen as a moderate republican who can challenge barack obama. michele bachmann is almost tied with him, having spent very little and done almost nothing here.

host: what about new hampshire? how is michele bachmann doing there? guest: the more interesting question is who is in second? that has fluctuated. pulling back into february, different folks have had that slot, for rudy giuliani to ron paul, even, trump at one point. right now on it -- right now michele bachmann is in second place. she is around 12%, 13%. after that, we go into single digits. michele bachmann -- host: go ahead, james. guest: michele bachmann has been sort of day howard dean type figure. can she pulled together the full howard dean type infrastructure?

howard dean was a prodigious fund-raiser, was able to have a huge infrastructure in this state that allowed him to continue to be a player after a disappointing finish in iowa. michele bachmann, frankly, does not have that infrastructure here. clearly her focus right now has been on it -- host: 90 show you this quote from john huntsman, from fox news, trying to explain what he meant when he said that michele bachmann makes good copy, "i wish we could all be that photogenic." what do you make of that? guest: i do not think this is getting a lot of play. had john huntsman been in second place or in first place, average everyday voters would know more about this quote then they really do.

host: if wa participate in this sation, we set aside a specific number. does what jon huntsman said hurt voters in iowa? caller: iowa is a funny state. it is one of two states in the nation that has never said a woman to congress' war -- to congress or had a woman as governor. it will be fascinating to see how that plays out among republican voters because republican voters tend to be those who have built that gender -- filled that gender gap. i think one of the lessons to be

learned is it is all about political organization. i think michele bachmann has generated a lot of interest, a lot of enthusiasm amongst the republican base. however, i think one of the things she has not done to date yet is she has not put together the type of organization that drives those people to the caucus next winter. she has to do that. she has crossed the first hurdle. she has built the enthusiasm, the interest among the republican base. now she has to put together the kind of organization to deliver those people to the caucus next winter. host: here is "politico" with their story out of iowa. tim pawlenty today released the names of 29 iowa county chairs to underscore his ground game in advance of the ames straw poll. the list suggests a level of

organization that should result in pawlenty holding his own at ames, despite low balling of expectations by his team." guest: the need to do well there. they have based their campaign on doing well in iowa. if they do not do well in the straw poll, their campaigns will be on fragile ground. they will bring a lot of interest, interest, and focus on the straw poll. we'll see if they can turn those people all. if they do not, their campaigns will be in danger. host: what should viewers be watching over the next month, in the fall, in new hampshire? guest: guest: who will be the

challenger to mitt romney? the magic is the last -- next leader of the free world has to talk to people in town meetings, answer questions on taxes, what to do about their kid that is in afghanistan or iraq? that magical moment has not happened in any of these early primary states. as the campaign matures, we could see more of these magical moments between a candidate and a real voter that will shake up the narrative. you mentioned before, raising money and profile, mitt romney will not be participating. he is on vacation this week. host: does the straw poll have an impact on new hampshire? >> it doe?

guest: it does in terms of setting the field. in terms of ideology, it really does not. it does lead to a slow, late july and august. some of the candidates are spending all of their time in iowa. some are not the dissipating in iowa as much and focusing more on new hampshire. host: we will go to henry a democratic caller in iowa first. caller: my question is for mr. james pindell and the other gentleman. i heard the comment that iowa and new hampshire are everyday people. i really do not know anyone that lives in these two states. they hold these primaries and everybody is held hostage by what these people in states

nobody lives in thanks. host: mike glover, i will go to you first. guest: because life is not fair. iowa and new hampshire have been first for a long time. candidates have to talk to people. if the first date was california, if you did not have $50 million, you could not run the campaign. in iowa and new hampshire you could go door-to-door, talk to real people, and get your campaign off of the ground. it is a system that is worked pretty well for a long time. it has helped nominate a number of people that have gone on to be successful. host: here are the key dates in the 2012 election -- august 13, the iowa republican straw poll.

if host: here is a story that was published on fox news -- early arizona primary could shake up the calendar. it's as if the governor of arizona, jan board, if she has her way could move the primary up to january. james pindell, what is it looking like for the primary calendar? guest: times are you spend all the time explain the states because it is probably not going to happen. the arizona governor has the capability to move the primary

to whenever she wants, but she has to do it with 150 days notice. she would have to make up her mind by a september. new hampshire and iowa will begin the process. they are much more nimble. iowa has a republican chair. it is a nimble process. four years ago, we did not decide when the new hampshire primary would be until the thanksgiving holiday. these two states will start off the process. what day? i do not know. host: when will that be decided? guest: again, much later, probably late-fall. iowa before new hampshire. thus that -- secretary of state is the last person. it is his duty. it is the state law. we have the first primary in the

country. he is duty-bound by law. he usually makes his mind up sometime in the fall. host: will go to ellen, a republican in houston, texas. itler: let's not get twisted. mitt romney has zero chance of winning. neither does bachmann. neither did she hold any weight in any sort of throwback to republican ideas. ron paul is a year should be talking about, and at the very least you should consider rick perry as a threat. let's get this weekend in houston. we have the prayer weekend and the fasting, and all of the stuff. this is posturing. if you are worried about the tea party, he is more scary than anything you can think about.

let's go, ron paul. host: ron block -- mike glover, ron paul, chances in iowa? guest: he is much stronger than the previous times. i guess you could call him sort of a naysayer to what is going on in politics right now. that seems to be selling pretty well among tea party folks and those kinds of folks. he is running third last i checked, which is much better than he has done before. he is a serious candidate and will run pretty well. he have something that is very important in iowa which has caucuses that require a level of commitment, he has very, very loyal, committed supporters. he might not have as many as someone else, but the supporters he has are very committed, in

twos, and committed to showing up next winter. host: this is from james. host: if you look to paul will -- if you look at "the " this morning --his mornin his schedule to spend two days campaigning in iowa and will hold fund-raisers. host: he has amassed an monetary advantage and kept his lead, but

the potential competition from the governor of texas are likely to change the contours of the race. it might be the strongest challenge yet to mitt romney's front-runner status. guest: i did not think anybody has a wrap up. the thrust of that is pretty good. mitt romney is probably a front- runner. in that is what the polls tell us. -- that is what the polls tell us. rick perry comes in as the governor of texas with a very, very large support among right- wing angelico and christians. he is a very -- evangelical christians. he has hired staffers in iowa. he has a staff on the ground. i think it is not a settled deal. one of the things we do least

well in our business is we do not really do well and deciding how somebody is going to revolve as a candidate, roh into the role. rick perry, on the face, is all you need to have to be a republican candidate. as he moves into the race, will he rolled into that role and become an effective presidential candidate? by all accounts, he probably can, but let's see. host: was go to new hampshire, grace, a democratic caller. caller: yes. are allshire people are original people from new hampshire. if we do not ask questions like boxers or briefs we ask questions of what the corporate tax rate should be.

that give this a clue about how one form they are, and that they're not as informed as we are. host: james pindell? guest: that is true. 70% of the state was born somewhere else. they have all of the population boom along the southern tier of the state, largely in the boston, manchester market. it is interesting to comes to town hall meetings. why do iowa and new hampshire began the process? no state would be perfect, but one thing these states doo-doo do is they allow for a marketplace of ideas -- do do is they allow for a marketplace of ideas. you really have these town hall meetings in new hampshire and iowa where you get to see how

candidates react under pressure and have honest debate. that is something that adds to the process before going to bigger states. host: i want to get your thoughts on rick perry and new hampshire. here's a story out of the eight teeth that says the texas governor has organized a prayer, a seven-hour cursed and atonement. it's a sincere scheduled the event he has become the most talked-about almost-candidate in the presidential field, but with only a thousand rsvp's for a stadium that seats 80,000 people, the event has become potential risk. guest: i read that this morning. probablyry would be -

the biggest threats to mitt romney. every couple of months we talk about somebody else that could enter the race. now, we are obviously talking about rick perry. rick perry and sarah palin are the only two candidates that would seriously shake this place up. rick perry has a natural advantage. he has arguably the top political strategist in the state, and in the country, his right-hand man, david carney. he would be a major player if he were to become a candidate, not just in iowa, where he would find natural constituencies, but even here, in new hampshire. host: maria, an independent in new jersey. caller: do you think ron paul is the only candidate that is potentially a nationalist?

he is against the trade agreement's death of put up of $311 billion deficit every year. with the illegal immigration year -- issue, i would like to see all of the candidates address these and protect us. also, what governor rick perry's job performance, a lot of times what the let the department of labor accounts for a job could be a lot less than the job they had previously. i wish we could have honest numbers. host: mike glover, what do you make of her comments about how ron paul views the issue is and how that might play god? guest: ron paul taps into -- might play out. guest: ron paul taps into a lot of frustration that a lot of people in this country face, things that are out of their

control. they see that things are going in a direction they do not like, and ron paul taps into the frustration. they see a world situation that is not going in a direction they like, an economy that is not going where they wanted to go, their jobs are not always there for them, and ron paul taps very effectively into that frustration by saying i am matt s. heck, and i am not willing to take it anymore. that accounts for a lot of his success. he is third in most of the polling i have seen, so he has been effective. host: why not if you are ron paul, run as a third party candidate? here is a story in n "the usa today." it's as history says no, but if the debt crisis further

alienates voters, all bets are off. guest: i did not think he will the republican nomination. i think mitt romney, rick perry are the front-runners, michele bachmann is playing into that. if he does not get the republican nomination, i do not think there is any doubt at all he will run as a third-party candidate. i think that is a likely scenario. if i were him, that would be a good way to go. host: james pindell, other any candidates that are in the race or not in the race that could make it viable third-party run? guest: michael bloomberg is a big figure. he clearly has the money, the credibility, and he has been talking about running and being this independent voice. he and arnold schwarzenegger at

one. declared they would leave the republican party to be this independent voice. besides him, and there could be scenarios where that could work, i could not see how anyone could be this credible voice. people are disgusted with politics and washington, but i just do not know how long the sentiment about is the titular moment, the debt ceiling, will really provide an opportunity. i think there is a stream of populism that goes under- reported that could be grabbed up on. there is populism against some sort of elite. however you define that a lead, whether it is the folks in washington, or the educated elite, there is an economic populism that is sitting there that any candidate could find

highly successful. host: there is donald trump possibly starting with a third- party bid as well. eric, a republican in west virginia. caller: i am a member of the tea party, i am 72 years old, and i did not consider myself a terrorist or extremists. i worked hard all my life. i think we are at a crossroads where we are either going to be a socialist country or a free enterprise country. i'm just hoping it does not go to the left. i liked rick perry because, well, statistics speak for themselves. he has created a i think of all the jobs that have been created, he is treated 40% of them, and for the woman that says there menial jobs, in this time, but job is a job.

host: texas is doing well with jobs. here is a "pittsburgh post- gazette" page. 45% approved of the handling of his job for the president. combine that with what you heard from the caller about rick perry and his job performance. guest: the president faces a big challenge. he is head to steer the nation through two or three significant crisis eased. one was the one we went through. is that in a tough calls that are not popular. -- he has had to make tough calls that are not popular. having said all of that, i have to tell you it is very, very difficult to get a sitting president who is paying attention to his politics, and

this president is paying attention to his politics. his poll numbers are down right now, however look at the money, the organization. i think we will have a competitive campaign. host: what is his organization might in the midwest and iowa for 2012, and how is the debt deal playing with democrats in that state? guest: democrats, right now, the biggest problem that barack obama faces -- you have to go back to the night he won election in chicago, and a million people let were gathered, cheering, shouting, talking about hope. are they as confused as they were back then? his problem is not -- enthused as they were back then? his problem is not with his base. are they excited enough to turn out, or are they disappointed and not likely to show what?

-- show poup? host: debbie, a democrat. go ahead. caller: i have an issue with james pindell. are you telling the people that property taxes start at $5,000 to $10,000 for an ordinary house? we are over-taxed, are you telling them that? and mitt romney, why do you tel about the big dig, the collapse, and the woman that was equipment, ashoty big did that went on for ever, and there was a woman that was killed. host: debra referring to when mitt romney was the governor of massachusetts. go ahead, james pindell.

guest: my point is that we do not have an income tax because taxes the fine politics. all we are left with is the property tax. there have been efforts to overturn that. there have been efforts to have an income tax. the most serious debate was in 1998 during the education funding crisis. in the big dig, of course mitt romney did not begin the big dig process. he was governor. there was some shoddy equipment. people had been fired. there were lawsuits. he did oversee debt. he did not oversee the entire project. host: steve, ill., democratic line. caller: i want to just let you

know. i'm going to be voting for president obama. host: you think the deal helps the president? caller: yes, i do. host: mike, dover, ohio. caller: i would like to welcome everyone from dover, ohio. i fail to understand why iowa has a big importance as been the first caucus or whatever. my understanding is they have a straw poll, a caucus, and a primary later. the straw poll and the caucus are strictly people that have been paid to show up. they are given transportation and whatever. host: mike glover, a little clarification there? guest: the straw poll is an event where candidates do bus

people to the straw poll to vote for them. they pass out tickets. so, it is a competition. who can turn out people to show off at a particular place, at a particular night, to vote for a particular candidate? the reason i like is first is because history, tradition, by what is a place where you have to come and talk to real people. you have to go out and campaign. you cannot just throw a bunch of money at things. it is a flawed process, obviously, but it is a process over time that has proven you have candidates best to come out and deal with real people, and i think -- that have to come out and deal with real people, and i think that is an important thing to have been a political campaign. host: john is a republican in

woodland, texas. caller: i like to comment on rick perry. i do not think you understand how farmers and ranchers paid rick perry. he spent $140 billion to build a highway that would have bypassed every major city in texas. it would have taken millions of acres of farmland and ranch land to build it, and it was defeated. kay bailey hutchison came out against it. he need to start telling the facts about rick perry. i do not see ron paul elected either because he has extreme views on illegal drugs. host: andrew a republican in new hampshire. you have to turn the television down peter, a democratic caller.

peter, good morning? all right, one last call for peter, four bright, california, a democrat line? all right. we will try to give back to you, peter. let me show our viewers the latest fund-raising numbers from the most recent reporting. mitt romney -- 12.7 $2 million. h a james pindell, what to those funding numbers tell you? guest: it shows you mitt romney has more money than the other candidates. it is something rick perry can offer. he has a significant nation- wide fund-raising base.

the second thing you notice is that not only -- i did not think you have barack obama's number on there, but he raises more than all the republican candidates combined. he has not been able to raise a lot of money, but nonetheless he comes in with significant financial advantages. we talk about him being the first billion dollar candidate. money will be an issue. he electability is an issue. when we talk about where these positions talk -- line up with the tea party or the conservative base of the republican party, the reality is that in new hampshire three out of four republicans say the most important thing is a person that can beat barack obama. the ability to raise money and electability will be a huge factor. host: mike glover, the

president travels to chicago today on his 50th birthday for a fund-raiser. when you look at the republican numbers, newt gingrich, about $300,000 is what he has raised so far. what does that say about the likelihood he can stay in this race? guest: it says a lot. if you look at all the republican numbers, if you look of the total amount of money they have raised, it is about half of what they raised during the last election cycle. they have a money problem, especially going against a president who does not have the money problem. i'm sorry, but in american politics money matters and barack obama is going to have a significant financial edge, probably two-to-one. if you look at the amount of money than newt gingrich has raised against total financial picture, he has $1 million in

debt. he has significant problems. in fort a democrat myers, florida. go ahead. caller: there was so much ulta -- uniformity in the gop did got my suspicions of, and then i found a website, and i was amazed that so many gop state legislators were directly influenced by american corporations. i think the gop is actually playing directly, and it is not even my thought, but receiving bills directly. host: those are michael's thoughts in fort myers, florida. let me end by asking you about the straw poll, michael glover? guest: we will be watching for who turns out the most people.

we assume the people who put the mouse organization into what are people like tim pawlenty and rick santorum, people that are betting on lot on the straw poll. they have not done well in traditional polling. if they do not do very well, it could be very tough for them. i think we will see the first willing of the field with that straw poll. host: james pindell, as mitt romney steps up his efforts in new hampshire, will you go to the small gatherings where the candidates go to small parties and shake hands, and what will you listen for? guest: i looked at the reaction on people's faces. are they engaged, laughing about this guy's answer over here?

mitt romney will begin small forms monday night. you get a sense from the crowd sizes. there is an ability to draw interest and the able to -- and be able to draw people into hear the message. we might???????????a

this is an hour and a half. >> good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for being with us on this afternoon in washington, d.c. after we have had a lot of really interesting times over the past two months. it's great to have you with us. - christine mcentee of the geophysical union and i'd like to thank the american meteorological society and aerospace for working with us on bringing to you what we think is a really, really distinguished panel and also some really important information to convey

to everyone here. even though it's typically out of sight and out of mind, americans across the country rely on polar orbiting satellite systems more than menino. in addition to the impact on everything from agriculture to aviation safety to the oil and gas industry, the satellites facilitate our ability to issue timely and accurate warnings during other events like tornadoes and hurricanes. and this certainly has been a really interesting weather year for the united states. the three to five dss warnings we are able to give when severe weather strikes depends on the data from the polar orbiting satellites and other things at which are used to interpret this data which you will hear about from our panel. we saw how beneficial as a country these advanced warnings can be earlier this year when tornadoes swept through the southern u.s. and in joplin misery. all weather forecasting systems rely on the data provided by

noaa and the national weather service and the polar satellite provide 90 present of the data that is used in weather service forecast models. maintaining reliable data mandates is that we maintain our polar orbiting satellite system including the next jpss -- excuse me for a minute. the next generation system which as many of you was the joint polar satellite system or jpss. each year as weather is the direct cause of thousands of deaths of injuries and billions of dollars in damage today we are going to discuss how these satellites protect not only public safety but they also protect national security and our economy. i'm going to introduce the panel and then turn it over to dr. berrien moore who's the director as well as the chesapeake energy corporation chair and climate study for the university of oklahoma school of

meteorology and the dean of the denver city college fought mustered in the geographic study and vice president of the schools weather and climate programs, and he will begin to moderate the panel as soon as i introduce them to you. with us today in addition to dr. moore, we have dr. 9-1-1 sullivan as you know the assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and production and deputy head minister of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration. jim stefkovich, as a meteorologist in charge of the national weather service in birmingham alabama, blah, blah and, a wjla meteorologist. the climate communications person who's getting his doctorate at george mason university, working on his doctorate -- at george mason university here in the washington, d.c. area, and

edward eddie hicks was the emergency management director in morgan county alabama and president of the u.s. council of the international association of emergency managers. and with that i am going to turn it over to berrien. >> thank you. appreciate that. >> i >> thank you. appreciate that. >> i am delighted to be here. as you can tell from the introduction of the panel we are going to range from noaa's role on the observation that forecast to the role of the forecaster and then to the role of what do people do with the information. so having eddie hicks here to be able to tell us what it's like to be at ground zero is a

particular important part of this panel. i had some experience with that this past year in norman oklahoma. as the director of the national weather center this was my first year and my first day on the job if you will in tornado season. in fact that almost indicates my east coast bias that i had never really been in a tornado alley, and so the white had joined the university in june in 2010 my first spring in normandy and on may 24 for kavanagh and others from the production center and the national laboratory called me at 8:30 and said the models

are converging and we need to brief the vice president that between 5:30 and 6:30 on the i35 corridor 20 miles south to 20 miles north of oklahoma city we are going to have severe tornado conditions. this is 8:30 morning. spinning there wasn't a cloud in the sky. the golf course was crowded the students left for the summer, people were taking picnics, it was a beautiful springtime day and norman oklahoma. the governor was called we waited for the mid morning past of the polar satellite, the models continue to converge and the data was being integrated but there was no need at this stage to bring in the radar data because it is a crystal clear

day and the pooler afternoon platform led by regarding the data the network started to kick in. so these models are now beginning to assimilate different datasets. at 3:00 the government sets the state down. there wasn't a cloud in the sky. on i called over to the golf course to brief the professor and said yes we already know about that but we feel like we can get people off the course in the next hour. 4 o'clock in the afternoon a few clouds began to appear in the sky. at 5:15, we began to have to evacuate the second floor into safe areas leaving open only the forecast office because by this time we were now beginning to see the radar take in. at 5:48 tornadoes touches down

north of oklahoma city and the corridor. another tornado touch is done between oklahoma city and normandy and the third tornado 2 miles south of campus touches down about 6:45. 7:00 we get the all clear. i walk out side and not a cloud in the sky. i thought i had never seen science quite like this, to see the observation of computing scientific systems say something at 9:00 in the morning, 5:30 and six time kofi that we were going to have severe conditions. the bp for the research and meteorologist was a little disappointed that the third would kicking in at 6:45 and we would miss the forecast. now this is extraordinary for the country to have this kind of capability to actually go through that sequence and what

are the elements of that sequence and then how do we communicate the information is something we need to do not only today but a number of times this next year. so, my first question is to dr. sullivan, and that is tell us what noaa does in all of this and tell us what is the state of the system right now in all of this. >> thanks. who can say it better than that first-person account. and by the way, i'd like to say for the members of all the stuff here i can't tell you how fun it is to be in the chamber and speaking to people without a five minute timer in front of me. laughter could it's absolutely extraordinary.w we are facing a differentwwww direction. that doesn't hurt. so i was in kansas city arriving in kansas city on the day berrien just told you about. i was on route to a couple

places on was to kansas city to visit our central region forecast office which is the central control and coordinating authority for all of the weather forecast offices that had just been experiencing and preparing people for what berrien described and about ten days earlier had been serving in a similar role as tornadoes last for joplin missouri, quite a devastating in that community 115i believe the final count was lives lost, thousands of structures at 1800-acre fields that is to be people's homes and hospitals. it was quite an experience and in fact the day that we were driving from kansas city down to springfield and the joplin area tornadoes were running through the southeastern part of kansas city and we were relying on the same forecast skills, the san chain berrien described to the models, the expert forecasters to provide the guidance and in the media from the apple on our

iphone to the radio and television to get the word out that last mile so that we all know not just with the models say because we don't care what the models say. what we care about is what is about to happen in your neighborhood. and how can i explain that to you in a way that says you know henry lee right where you are, not in the county generally, but along the ice 35 corridor plus or minus a few miles. so you can add that into your sense of where you are very readily and determine what actions to take. we got off the highway. we were looking at all the information to the radiologists and the lot better geologists in the car looking at all the data looking at all the sources, the highway is the worst place to be we got off the highway. we said let's at least start with a large structure like a restaurant. we've walked in and it was an apple these -- applebees.

she says we are serving, we have the freezers, we are not seeing anybody by the window, we know the drill and we are paying attention, too. the restaurant is relying on the same information to be sure they make the right decision can we continue to serve customers or not. when we have to take the business loss and do the right thing and in that window because we do have large firms structures like freezers, how can we help structure people, they, are there, they are already at that point. people survived in joplin taking refuge in freezers and large food freezers and restaurants and stores. i'm sure the same is true of alabama. so, you know, i would like to amplify again that chain and may be introduced a metaphor that is anchored on when end and absolutely remarkable and berrien user right adjectives

the concrete salles whitcomb blight foundation of expertise come observational to the the the the advanced modeling capability that the united states owns and operates as a federal public good platform. this is not what the weather channel does, this is not what kgla does, this is what we, as a nation, do, to ensure that for all citizens with the technical and expertise foundation that lets this sort of observation transform to knowledge, transform to information that matters and move in a timely fashion in a channel that clicks with who you are and where you are so that you can take the right action to protect yourself, your business, your home, your family and connects the folks like eddie hicks here so that they can help put the word out and prepare first responders. and that's the one of the link to this change that i would alert you to. berrien told a story putting people out of harm's way in the

precautionary sense, get people out of the way in advance. at the same time that that word was reaching him, because he happens to live in a very -- one of the nation's best meteorology departments, our central region and local forecast offices are activating circuits and relationships they work on an everyday basis to keep in good touch. they are calling emergency managers, they are tied into fema and red cross. bigger telling those first responders the same thing, too, so they can run through the prepared this checklist and think where the command post structures are and the stocks and stores. the probability of the hits are going and what supply chains, retailers from wal-mart and other vendors can the alert we may need your help in this corridor over the next couple of days if they really hit, so think about being on the ground after the storm winds through and in a footprint where it did touch ground. the place i don't want to be. think about being that person

coming out of that restaurant freezer or out of your cellar to the blue sky and the fix that used to be your home. thanks again to the chance to believe and communication, the people who are losing out to respond to you knew in advance, was staged in advance has been on their tiptoes ready to advance. we can't make what has happened to those decisions go away, but we certainly can bring the response in to play hours if not days faster. we can think of other natural disasters sometimes in this country, sometimes overseas, in that window of time from eight hits and has passed from finally someone is here to help me and it has been measured in days if not weeks, the potential for disease goes up, casualty numbers go up as people suffer more severe consequences of early injuries. we have some remarkable ability in this country to confine and

lesson that cascade with further cascading consequences. so what does noaa do? noaa is the agency that has been charged with that federal foundation responsibility. we are charged with operating satellites and polar orbits that deutsch scans are around the planet and the planet rotates underneath. we work in partnership with the defense department and the egg european meteorological. he mentioned the pass and the impleader satellite path. there was a european satellite and in the morning it was the noaa and in the afternoon that is the kind of international collaboration on the observations characterized in the enterprise if i may use that term for more than a century. the united states makes myriad measurements from satellites and other systems every day multiple times a day. characterizes the atmosphere and weather patterns over our country. satellites of course are indispensable for many reasons including the upstream areas over the pacific ocean that are

going to become the united states three, four, five days on the road. they make vertical profiles of the key atmospheric constituents that are the essential ingredients in the models. we share that data freely and with the media of local services of every other country on the plan that really a simple reason. we absolutely also have to have their data to feed our models and the cost of trying to inspire the to implement the world to the scale that we need to do with your forecasting has prohibited. it is a remarkable partnership that the data exchanges have endured through times of hostility, for times of open warfare where the data has still been exchange. as we operate the satellites. i will come back to the constellation and the moment and the stationary satellite as well. we installed and operate the fundamental backbone radar network of about 88 sites across

the united states and for the trust territories. we are on certain other targeted more local scale instrument networks partly for smaller scale measurements to help characterize how the pattern is scaled down to regions and partly for the research to improve operations. we also around the national centers for the environmental protection and the storm prediction center which is located with the weather center is one of those centers. the tropical prediction center which you know was the national hurricane center is another one. so some focus centers the work of developing the expertise and the modeling capability to get comfortable lead potent forecasts for different weather phenomena. out of all of that infrastructure the super computers that run the models and the forecasters at process and produce the outlook guidance, that outlook guidance produce the certified if you

will national forecast data that is put out an abundance of the information products. we have called them the family of services. anybody coming you can come to the web site and find and pick up any of those products yourself if you would like. but what we all do more commonly is that an application on our iphone or have favored meteorologist or some other source that fills the gap for us and those the extra translation. noaa doesn't try to transmit the products all the way into the kind of format you get them for your personal use we turn to our partners in the private-sector to do that and rely on them tremendously to make sure the ground is saturated and covered and a free betty, every one possible has heard about it. i would say to other things on that point and then i am sure my five minutes are up. [laughter] one is if you ever hear -- if you ever hear these phrases, they have absolutely positively by mutual agreement with our

private sector partners as well as national mandates the have come only from noaa. if you ever hear special with her statements that is a sort of good housekeeping seal of approval that tells you national forecasters looking at the public safety and economic benefit has escalated tension around the other circumstances. if you ever hear watch or warning, those are only -- that is only your country warning you and alerting you heads up something might be in your area or something is in your area and you need to be acting now to protect your business and your life and your home and our partners in the private sector helped pass that on to all of you. >> one other small question and then i want to go to the other part of the panel. we all have just come through another severe weather event, úd and that's the budget, and i waú

wondering in this severe weather have we come out of the storm ú shelter yet, and what we look@ around when we see what the@@ ptatus of your system in terms0@ of both the geostationarydú satellite and the low earthp orbit satellite as well as the other observation systems, howñ are we in that situation? >> i am in peeking out from the storm shelter but not entirely convinced yet to leave. so, with respect to the satellite constellations as happens with both the polar and the jeal satellite series at points in a milestone where there are new satellites in the design of the pertinent process to get up on the order in the 2015 from 16 come 17 timeframe the target always has been to be to have the satellite ready on station to take over from the one that has been in place to not have a feel we're on the order that leaves you with a gap in the data streams that we have been talking about, so for the

polar satellites, we have a satellite that is built close to ready to go in colorado at the air base by the name of npp and our target is to get off the ground in october of this year for the five-year life of a ticket for 2016. the joint polar satellite that was mentioned has been queued up to be the successor and takes the baton from npp in the 2016 timeframe. the current year fiscally 11 funding challenges with budgets that didn't reach federal agencies until the fourth quarter shorted the budget required to the procurement with gps s by a very substantial amount that was requested was just over a billion dollars, 1.07 billion, the satellite happens to be that point you have to step up into actually building things. the number refers, it came out on the appropriation was 382 million, quite the gap.

the administration and others realize and the severity of the gap we worked together over a number of months and managed to move that north to 471 million. nonetheless, that our best estimates now say that has moved the on or bet rate in the state buy something on the order of a year and raises a very real risk almost a certainty that there will be a gap in the data for the afternoon or bit. the european union, a unit that has continuing to work to sustain the warning orbit we might have a gap, we might not get that second look at berrien mentioned for a period of about a year. we don't know the budget for the next fiscal year fy 12 yet. our proposals have been marked up by the house. we again came asking for the amount we need, 1,000,000,000.6. the house market was close to that in the 900 million range. we don't know yet what the final

outcome will be in the senate awaiting their number and of course, the outlook for 13 is certainly as we are hearing at any rate the outlook is nobody's budget is likely to go up but staying flat will be some degree of a victory. as of the challenge here is for noaa although this is not the noaa alone problem how we deal with being at a critical juncture for these absolute critical satellite observing systems the jeal system is coming along as well. how to be a comedy that, how do we get that done? within the constraints that the agencies are looking at? on the radar site i will quickly add the next system is in pretty good shape. our scientific cadre that keeps improving our ability to extract information from it is pressured by these budgets and really spectacular advances, technical advances in the radar system that are just at hand, the ability to step into those and

go to the dual polarization and stolid radars i think those prospective advances, which others at this table can tell you really would revolutionize the short term accuracy with things like tornadoes. that is certainly threatened by these budget pressures. >> okay. let me shift now to three of our forecasters, and i would like them to just take the general topic of a forecast, and in particular dhaka brian and jim and joe it's been my experience and maybe this is a game, the fact that i have not been in the area necessary lee sevier whether, i don't remember as often where the forecast was that one day in and today's out, but i guess that in the area where these are real issues, the one and today out forecast is a

reality. i would like to talk about that as well as the in how do you shift over to when it becomes now we are in the warning phase, out of the watch phase. at the 30 minutes and the 45 minute stages. talk to us a little about your role and what your response of the czar and when you are looking at. maybe start with bob. >> on the chain and the continuity, and it gives me an opportunity not to necessarily do it myself, but to give a little bit of a history, my synoptic professor and the synoptics are the basis of the forecasting, was one of the great pioneers from the school of meteorology that began with rossby, and before i got into this side of the business from the opportunity to be in the research for a while i met a man

who was one of the great hour original fundamental driving forces behind the miracle of weather forecasting, rather than using analytical techniques and with the art form is, and i've been fortunate to know people like that who are one of the great pioneers in the radar meteorology. and course byrne who was one of the great pioneers between satellite meteorology. so what has been for me exciting to start looking at years ago the beer truck model that jardine was used as the first model process, and to see the evolution and to see the tremendous advance and application of the science that i started laughing as a ten year old boy that loves snowstorms, and here we are today. so, i think the application and

the utility across the science itself from everything from the short term life critical decision making to the longer term planning economically and for two to three to four it is out and to see that being accepted across every sector of the united states and worldwide and what we do has a surface and as perhaps a fundamental service of government, that is the protection of life and property, that is the weather community has been so satisfying to me to see coming and as i have grown into this and then to be able to now be a part of that community that we all share, that is how do we help people one, understand what will be happening and then how do we help them make the best decision. whether it is the one hour with a two hour and ten minute decision or the decision for three or four weeks ahead of

time, as now people in oklahoma are having to deal with ever more economically and personally challenging things from heat waves. so by that as a little background, what we have seen is the fundamental application of so many parts of the science. that is the data which is so critical, and rick anthony used the analogy of what we do as a three leggitt school. the data from their remote sensing, the satellites that are now all 51-years-old when we first began to where we are now, those data, the fundamental understanding of the meteorology what is going on, and the use of the computer systems such as the great pioneers of snider and cno charlie had so that the medical forecasting has indeed now advanced to the way we do

business. it is no longer an art form, it is a science that benefits everybody in every sector and in every part of the country, and the service that we render as the nation to the world for that matter with cooperation and the sharing of data. so it has been a continuity if you will, and the continuity that must continue. sometimes i think we lose sight of how rapidly we have arrived at the point we are now in the application of the science and where we have yet to go. the forecasting problem is not solved, and we cannot lose sight that we need to maintain and devotee of its those critical, critical elements, be they ever more powerful computers, be they the continuity and the maintenance of the critical satellite data, be they the education of all of us or be

faith in the use of all of the new communication tools that we now have at our disposal from our public and private partnerships to the emergency managers so that indeed people can make the right decisions. so, seeing that and then maintaining it and continuing at is at the core of the government should do. so i don't think we can lose sight of the risk that there is this perception. we have solved the forecasting problem. let's move on to the next. the forecasting problem is not solved. we can only have a chance, and as we can see to get that tornado warning 30 minutes out, one hour out down to specific neighborhoods have people make again the right decision. advance so that we can, ten days ahead of time, begin to have some planning for a hurricane or for an economically devastating

and changing what people do for winter storms. and this is the economic payoff, and the economic benefit to the country to the individual is huge in terms of cost benefit, and again, this government, and we are all part of that, then the citizens i never heard someone come up to me and say you know what, we are paying too much for our weather services. i don't think i'm getting my money's worth as a tax payer. they have never said that. so, it's been a very exciting career that life had come and gratifying to see one, cooperation that exists across all sectors. but importantly, the afghans and where we've come from from those early beginnings and the advance and acceptance of our science by so many decision makers in the public that the then take what we say and believe it and take the action.

but the job is not over. we have to as a community make sure that we maintain this and don't have any gaps that are -- the public if they hear that there is a gap coming up that's going too deteriorated and have a regression, they would say what the heck is going on? that something that's important to me. so we are all in the same boat together. >> pick up on that a little bit from us and then i would like to go to jim to tell us from the alabama perspective and particularly the relationship that you and eddie have had but i would like to go to joe first. from your experience, but things stand out in your mind as a forecaster and the role of the forecaster. >> - cui are all on the steamboat. in fact i can remember back in seattle, 1970i just started out

in tv. we would go down the national??? weather service office and take? a four by five polaroid???????? black-and-white image of what??? was happening from clouds and??? looking down on the clouds over? the pacific. we have little data???? coming ? the pacific a few ships here and there and so for us it was pretty fuzzy at the same time and our technology has grown so quickly and so fast things to the wonderful scientific world we have in this country. remember when we thought getting a better forecast by telephone was so cool like it filed a number to get weather forecast try that with and a tornado approaching it just wouldn't work and then we had a mobile phones come along and could get the weather on the mobile phones

and now where are we? we are now with the iphone and the technology of the iphone you can go to bob's website and i can see the every are right here and i can see the satellite technology and the doppler radar technology so if we come this far in that short period of time what can science do for us in the short term near future it's been to the explosion of technology, knowledge in the computer power that we will be able to do much better when it comes to warnings ahead of time, specifically for tornadoes. we show the doppler radar without the doppler radar us tv folks would be much in the dark. doppler radar has done so much for us we still have a challenge trying to figure out what is snow and rain and where is that line that is always a challenge but with the new sensors in the near future with many more channels of information coming and we will be able to decipher

much better what are those particles or those water droplets are they high clouds or low clouds or mid-level clouds? and so the expansion of the capability that we have and that is one thing that i have learned being around the scientists at the campus was that knowledge base that is building and especially with the younger people coming out and it's in a way the way i look at it as a television person that was like a thousand words to me that in 1970 and there is an old chinese saying that modified says tell me and i probably will forget, but show me and i might remember and that is the role that we play sort of feeling that link of the chain of using the wonderful signings the national weather service of noaa provides and then linking the that information with the graphic

power that we have from the satellites from the radar to including the viewers, the visitors' understanding that and one of the things i do is understanding the strands of informal the education how people learn about science, the first strand is give them the moment and that is exactly what the satellite imagery does in their radar imagery does to look at some of those things, some of those images and we get the tool radar lenni you see the vertical profiles that is really and i know there's a tornado or severe storm there and then the of the third strand is if people can learn how to use scientific reasoning, then they are a part of the science and that is what this technology is doing we are able to show the people and they can look at some of these images now and understand what he is

showing that when he talks about this is a major severe storm, and this is the one we really have to watch so it is that visualization that every door and the satellite give and have given in the past and have the capability in the near future to give us much, much more. >> tying together what actually happens because of the observation systems that are in place in the satellites, a full six days in advance we started talking about the potential for severe weather. this started coming out of the noaa center as dr. sullivan said the national center. the information that gets passed on to us and what is called the weather forecasting office. we are one of 122 offices in the nation. we have four offices that serve the state of alabama, and speed is in the state served by a huntsville office and so we are just in the south of birmingham. from there if we started talking about the possibility and the

likelihood of a strong to the long trek tornadoes three days in advance. that is unheard of starting out in my career years ago, a long time ago. that information then gets really to the managers, to our television partners come to the public through our web sites through social media come through our forecasts and other services. we also have an 800 megahertz system we can talk directly to the emergency management with. from then a, when we have to we started getting into the sand, people took notice. the night before the event actually on folded we have schools that closed across the state of alabama in anticipation. the morning of the event, we had the state emergency management office at the feet like a land fall hurricane was about to occur. the governor for the state of alabama actually signed an emergency declaration or

proclamation about the oncoming weather. so, what happened when it got down to the field level is because of our relationship that we have with our media emergency management and our other partners, they believed us and they started taking action of what was about to occur. we don't have slides or video that i wish i could show you. but for alabama, it truly was a terrific event. we had for the state actually came in three waves of severe weather. it started in the early morning about 3:00 or 4 o'clock in the morning. we had another waiver around noon. and then the final wave a lot of people saw in tuscaloosa and birmingham occurred in the late afternoon and into the evening hours we had a 24-hour period of severe weather. most -- about the southern half of the state of alabama was affected. between the two offices we issued about 200 mornings. that is tornado warnings combined and hundreds of fallout

as dr. sullivan mentioned a follow-up to let folks know the progress of each individual storm. and so that information got conveyed with an average lead time for all of the tornadoes about 24 minutes to read it is almost double the national average that we have for the tornado warnings nationwide. so, people knew that it was coming. people prepared. we had people off the roads, and then when we got to the eve and we were working closely with emergency management during the yvette relating information. and then finally, we talked about the actual warning process itself. but it doesn't end there at the weather service because we spent the early weeks doing damage surveys because we actually go on the field and damage all of the surveys, damage, excuse me, surveys of all the damage out there at the beginning points and endpoints with intensity, dr. hayes was out visiting our offices in alabama and that took

weeks and to put this in perspective if we took all 62 tornado tracks that occurred in the state of alabama in the end was put in perspective, that is going from birmingham to boston on the road, and that is just all in the state of alabama so that is a horrific even. we have about 10 billion cubic yards of damage since in alabama we are big on football that is a football field of damage a mile high and that is all the damage so for weeks afterwards where again working with emergency management and first responders, thousands of first responders local, state, federal partners we are helping first responders minute by minute forecasts using again all the systems because we have severe weather after the 27th of april. so we have to really minute by minute information to keep these people say if only the folks that lost their homes,

approximately 13,000 homes and alabama were completely destroyed or major damage uninhabitable. but also to protect first responders out there. so literally for those of us of the field level, the severe weather ease and began in mid to late april and it didn't wrap up until just recently with all of the surveys, all of the information provided to the first responders and i will go to eddie on that. >> i can tell you that what we have is true of the partnership between the media and the weather service offices and the local offices. there are a couple of things we do in preparation for these events. we work with the weather service on a severe weather storms potter class's and that isn't really to get all the folks out there to get all excited about chasing storms, but its practical training where we have our police officers, fire folks,

ems people, school representatives that are going to have to be around any way, and we train them, we all train them, not me, we just provide the room, and they would actually train them where to look in the system and what to look for and how to report what they are seeing. so the radar image is good, but we are able to tell, to take that radar image and what is happening on the ground with the radar image. so it is ground prove reporting. the other thing that we do in preparation for this is our county will go out and actually do severe weather surveys in the different facilities. some of my counterparts won't do that because of the liability, and i can tell you my response back to that. if i'm going to get food i'm going to get it for doing something instead of nothing.

so, just to a number of you are going to sue me for that. [laughter] we are not professionals and that we tell them up front that the best thing to do is get an engineer to come in but from our perspective, these rooms are what we feel like are the safest areas, and there has been places some of these buildings we just say we are sorry, we can't find a place that we consider safe at all and what we tell those if you were going to do any additional construction, that is the time to provide shelter at that time because it is a mere fraction of the cost if you do it passed a part of the building construction. and so, it is a process that we go through there. now, what happens with our weather service partners is we start regular briefings from officials and it's not just the emergency management offices. we bring our superintendent of education, we bring our law

enforcement fire and so it is nothing to have 30 or 40 people in the operations center just before the briefing, and it really all depends on how serious, how much you scared us as to what is going on, but you know, it really depends on that. but they aren't getting a firsthand from the weather service what to expect, and i can tell you that just like you were talking about the details that they had when this system started, we knew that it was going to start sometime after midnight. it started about 3:00 was the first warning that started. that was absolutely not a surprise for us. we had already determined about what time we were going to activate our emergency operations center. based on what we were told by the weather service, we didn't bring all hands in the cooking to every emergency operations center. we brought 86 - in there because

based on what we were told by the professionals, they would be in three ways, and it was. we knew that the third wave was the one that we really had to gear up for, so each wave that came through we added a few additional people, and the rationale behind that is we don't want to wear everybody ought because you are talking about 18 hours is what this day -- i don't want to live through it again that it was 18 hours a lot of times the intent response. when we talk about activating our emergency operations centers we bring representatives from law enforcement to fight your ems, red cross, salvation army, our volunteer organizations active in disaster and an hour county we bring industrial representatives rescue squad volunteer fire reps and of education. those are just the ones the we will bring in and then the

reason we do that is because we know that if we get hit like we are anticipating that we need to start an immediate response. and so, we don't want to lose the two hours that would take to assemble levity that are already there and ready to respond. i can tell you that the huntsville weather service office issued 20 separate tornado warnings just from my county, 20 separate tornado warnings, and the favorite thing that they told me was they would get on and say morgan county we are issuing another tornado warning for your county. and one thing we do, we don't want to cry wolf, with the warnings of the weather service has done that is something that you are not warning for the entire county any longer it is just a section of the county the

storm is and will be affecting. we are one of the ones in the state that only try to send our sirens in that warning area and so what happens with the big storms that came through, we are big on redundancy of our systems. if one system goes down, we have a backup system in its place. so, what we have in place for four different tv stations that we could monitor the radar. we got access to two different feeds on the over the internet from the weather service and a commercial service that we depend on. well, the cable went out, so that took out four of the systems there. in the internet went out. so, we could not take that box as the weather service issued for the western portion of the

county that didn't mean anything to me what part of the western part of the county because i need to sound of those sirens. so i would have to go in and get them to verbally tell me over the radio what communities were affected, then i was able to go back and and sound of sirens just in that area. but i can tell you when your power goes out because we were fortunate with morgan county the five contiguous counties around my county had anywhere from ten to 20 times damage that we had. we were forcing it in that we were put in the southwestern corner about 3 miles across their to a 60-mile track a clip from one county, 3 miles in my county and then into another county, and then in fun north western corner they got a 3-mile track there, same thing from one county to the other. 100 houses were affected in my

county. the other counties were anywhere from, you know, 300 or 400 to 0,000 or whatever. so we were so fortunate that all of our -- we were so fortunate compared with any of my neighbors there and so we were able to help and offer response to the other counties. one of the things that happened, we have another little s the zeros we had three tornadoes that hit the county. that was what, 75 miles per hour? it took out five of the major transmission's coming into the county. it took out all of the power to the county and they said it would be at least two weeks before we got power back, it was five days but they made us feel better, a whole lot better. but you know, with our response, it was definitely there were no real surprises other than the

one numbers that were dealt with, but the timing was right on target. we had the stuffing committee and the public knew what was going on because for days the untold what to expect from that and unfortunately we have loss of life and that is one of the things we need to take from this what is the next step because we had adequate warnings but we still have a loss of life, so we've got to take that and learn from this. >> i think that polygon points out what you have been talking been able to narrow things down from a timing standpoint maybe you could expand on that. >> shortridge for those who don't know how polygon is a multi cited of warning and we have all seen these hurricanes about to make land fall it shows the cone of where we expect the track to be. we do that with individual stores. so we only worn a certain sections of the county or a

number of counties based on where we expect that severe weather to be and that is why because it polygon warnings, so we are getting down to the fine scale of exactly where we think the severe weather is going to be so we are reducing, greatly reducing our false alarm rate area of all of our individual warnings. >> i want to ask you to do one other thing. it's a great description of these amazing defense. one might have listened to that and got the sense of the forecast office does is just received satellite imagery in the model law output and pick up the phone and talk to the emergency folks. would you unpacked a little more? what is the actual process of your experts, professional experts of the weather service and to take that communications step. >> the data was wonderful but conveying that through the customers is vital to get the information that the public. for this event, we have never seen the parameters. i personally have never seen in

my 30 year career the parameters leading to this event for an outbreak of this magnitude. i used words like armageddon, death and destruction. i heard from emergency management as we gave statewide briefings of how the tone of my voice i never heard that type of tone before. we also talked about it with the media as well. our media in alabama, you were not there, goes wall-to-wall with all of the tornado warnings. so whether they were on a wall to wall without the interruption from 3 a.m. in the morning until almost midnight, we were using things like the national weather service chad, instant messaging deutsch and emergency managers and media partners, storm spotters, the web information. seóul this is being conveyed to the boots on the ground type of concept is this information was great, but those of us on the field who were working with these folks are really into that and developing the trust relationships so people, when they hear it, listen to us.

>> but how do you convert the central guidance you get from the national center for environmental protection and the satellite? what are the technical steps as converting that into the knowledge that starts you down that through the public on and talk to people pass? what is the part in between? >> we will take the signs being written in the center of the information and start putting them into our own what is called a reena forecast discussion's coming year of a logical discussions but we expect the event to be and we will then start talking about the placement of what type of severe weather we expect, where we expected and as mentioned, time frame to actually honed in where folks can understand what we are expecting. once the warnings become issued, then we are starting to talk about the polygons and in describing in the term that goes on the radio and that goes out as a tone alert for those and i of the congressman bacchus couldn't make it but he has the legislation to put the manufactured homes, so that information goes out in the multiple means to basically tell

people exactly where the storm is and where it's going and we will update the warnings frequently every several minutes to give updates of where the storm is and also talk about the intensity. we will also be gathering information from emergency management media in real time instant messaging. it's among the things we used was the television cameras out on the field and some of our folks to solve that. it was emotional. some of our staff members became very emotionally overcome in this event. they have never been in something like this and it's something we didn't anticipate coming and i will see first hand that we expected strong tornadoes. we never expected the magnitude. we never expected a total of 11 violent trade was across the state in that day. it was just a horrific event. ..

>> let me point out, and i think a loss of data can lead to a loss of accuracy. if we have a set back in accuracy, we lose, we may lose the confidence of the person making the decision in the forecast, and once we lose that confidence in the forecast as with anything, it takes a long time to get that confidence back. we can want risk a loss, any loss of data. we cannot risk having a set back that then will lead to a greater

loss of life, and the thought came to mind there's been a number of studies to try and put the perspectives of the terrible outbreaks and historical perspectives and what if it happened back in the 20s and 30s with something of this magnitude, the loss of life may have been in the tens of thousands as tragic as it was in the hundreds. all of us involved in the enterprise have never seen anything like that. in a historical perspective before the modern tools, before the data, before the system in place, the loss of life would have been hoer horrendous. >> maybe i can just comment on one experiment that we've done to try to understand rigorously what it would mean if we didn't have that afternoon polar satellite. so we took severe snow event of

2010, and we archive all the data from that event. we can take all the data gathered and processed in the real event and reprocess it. we did that except we took out the polar afternoon satellite data. in the reel event, in the actual event, it was in the tornado alley, but in the winter time, drenches rains, far enough north dumped 19-22 inches of snow. the forecast, again, five days out, high probability, severe storm. storm tracks like this. the contour lines say heavy rain expected here and heavy snow expected here. three days out, refining the contour lines, numbers on them. the forecast track was on the money for where the storm went. the storm amount range was 18-22 inches. it was 19 inches in the fact in

the bull's eye where the forecast predicted the most intense snowfall. that's how the real forecast went in the real event with the full data set. what happens when you pull the amp polar data out, when you blinded the satellite system by one eye that has a chance of being blinded in 2016? the track was off tens of miles. the amount of snow forecast was under forecast. the analysis was low by 50 #%. imagine being the eddy hicks here in the metro area, a three-day outlook there could be snow, but in the front range, not a big deal for the city. that's wrong, and it slams the city. imagine there's an outlook that there's eight on nine inches of snow. that's one class response. if you know what the kind of accuracy that we've been talking about here on tornadoes on this

day starting at about that time, an intense snowfall event leaving you 22 inches of snow on the ground, you'll behave differently. if you're the personnel manager, you encourage them to get out of town so there's not thousands of people stranded in cars on the highway in a severe cold event, ect., ect.. that's one example. that illustrates the scale of sensitivity that the forecast can have to this loss of data. we're not talking about slightly wrong. we're talking potentially 50% less good on where a storm is going or what the consequences it dumps on the ground may be. you know, human beings are pattern response people. one or two times you tell me you can count on this, it's going here, and it comes and hits me here? all of us -- all of us will begin to not respond to

warnings. >> following on that theme then in the context of this pending data gap perhaps, the 2016, this gps system has a pretty long pedigree. colorado rocky road with impose. given that and what you discussed, the vital importance of not losing that afternoon, when is noaa thinking about in terms of a different model for placing a polar orbiting satellite in space in the future so there's not as much of a risk of losing that given budgetary constraints or anything else. what system is out there with a shorter timeline but gives good data or adequate data so you are not facing this 2016 blind spot if you will? >> so, that's a great question.

we're looking at all of those questions, and we find that buy a variety of necessities are seeking false into two-time domains. there is the gps system was for a number of years managed in a different arrangement with what is now jpfs that involved the relationship with the department of defense. that was proved very difficult to make work. there were cost overruns that have been refaced and broken apart so there's a distinct weather and military program. having said that, there's still years of development. we are well down the road towards the specific satellite. as we look at that program in 2011 and how to get to a 2015-16 time frame, anyone who knows complex system engineering and procurement and development, you actually begin to raise the risk dramatically the more you keep churning the program around and shifting courses on it.

you have a lot of momentum. contract expertise, spacecraft already under way, so it appears to us that on the one hand the least risk profile to minimize controlling gaps as much as possible is to stabilize and carry on with the jpfs program. there may need to be takes in the particulars of the program. your question in my view pertains to and what's next after that? are there -- there are emerging and different capabilities in the private sector space community now than before. there's been fascinating experiments. there have been e peermts with constellations and formations of smaller satellites so what instruments could you do, what capability could they have? most of the instruments thus far is what people brought to our attention to consider.

i would say noaa put out several requests for information. we formally gorp the pro-- begun the process of talking with industry and academia. it is demanding. you know, the center needs to be starring at the right place and scanning the right things at the right time. that tends to narrow the range of pay lord opportunity you might do. somebody is putting a gps satellite up, and says i can give you acreage, and most of the time your instrument can look here, but i might have to do something else with the satellite. it's a complex picture. we'll continue to work with it, work with partners, and work for pathways and assess their technical and cost capabilities. >> question? >> yes, rick lopez.

one thing i wanted to say is that based on your presentation it's obvious what you guys do is more valuable than all the instruments we bail out on wall street to our congress. [laughter] now, it seems also to me it's apparent that cutting the budget on this technology is outright criminal and murder against our population, so should citizens demand the removal of politicians who impose brutal pos tearty and including president obama who forget to mention he played a role in cutting the satellites. >> dr. sullivan, do you want to answer that question? [laughter] >> i'll be happy to answer it too. i've been that 10-year-old kid who loved snowstorms. when the president gave the speech on the economy did mention two words "weather

satellites" as being important and part of something that should not be cut. in all candor had not heard those two words before in a presidential speech and almost fell off my chair. i think he pointed out the vital importance and that as being one of the critical functions of government that should be maintained. >> i guess i would say in my experience as a private citizen for the last 15 years because i only returned from government service 90 days ago. it was remarkable to me -- i guess like any infrastructure, you know, out of sight is a bit out of mind; right? there's a evening forecast on tv, i can count on it. the lights will come on when i flip the switch. i can count on it. what, why, and how that magic actually depends on, we all just put in the background, and we tend not to think about it and take it for granted. there's been a tendency as well,

and i say this intending exactly no blame to anybody, but there's been a tendency that i've encountered in my community in ohio to think about if someone thinks about noaa at all, they say, i don't know what you do. i get my weather from the weather channel. [laughter] okay, so i think that general disawareness, if you will, of the reality that the way this enterprise works is it stands on this foundation, this public service, public good foundation, this tremendously vibrant commercial sector from weather channel to my friend here object left draws on that data. it's a fap by louse -- fabulous market segment and low barriers to entry. i bet there's 13 students at the dp now coming up with the next clever apps for phones. i hope they all succeed and have

a new business. that all springs off of this public good, public available foundation, so we lose the bubble on that. we think fedex delivers the freight and the highway system has nothing to do with it. [laughter] in my experience over the past 90 days, i'd say the rate at which the awareness has been growing as perhaps we have done a better job of making communities an interested stake holder, that has been happening. the president has mentioned it in a couple of speeches. i can tell you it's mentioned in cabinet meetings by other cabinet secretaries, in context of these events, secretary sebelius and we're growing of the awareness. the awareness comes after when

you actually needed the awareness, and you have to deal with how do we recover as much of that lapse in times as we can. we've seen good support within the administration so far and working hard on the problem including support from our fellow cabinet agency and agencies like fema, so i don't have that complaint. >> i would add also in the question that this is a month of the most bipartisan of areas. senator shelby certainly from alabama, ed hoff from oklahoma. these are staunch republican senators from staunch republican areas, and the satellite weather forecast chain is as strong there as any place in the country, and i think we recognize that. other questions? >> tornadoes don't know which

party they are on. [laughter] >> julie campbell, the campbell group. this is for dr. sullivan. when we're talking about how ten uos the programs are and the advanced warnings for preparing for severe weather, what is your wish list or priority for increasing the robustness of the system and are there any data sets that you would like to increase the capabilities of somewhere down the line? >> julie, are you -- you mean satellites per se with your question or the full infrastructure of the weather foreclosure enterprise? 93% of the data invested by the weather models are satellite data, and the bulk of that by far is something around 85% of that segment comes from the

polar satellites. with the responsibility to do all we can to maintain the accuracy of national public forecast, i would have to place the polar satellites highest on our list. geostationary and the founders and instruments there are not far behind, but there's other elements within the infrastructure that noaa relies on to do its portion of this job. there's other key infrastructure points. we obviously depend critically on a telecommunications backbone and architecture to get the data to the right places, to the prediction, down to the satellites. there are risky points in that system, in keeping that current and robust so there's not multiple embedded single point failures is something we pay close attention to. when you get down to the shorter -- well, let me go the rest of the way down the chain. when the weather data, the central guidance model, images

arrive at a weather forecast office, jim and his colleagues use a workstation called the advanced weather processing system, awps. he's been humble and gracious of dodging the question of how awesome he is towards tipping his hands in the communications challenge, but point of fact the workstation competing power to mesh the models, mesh the data to bring in nets and other local and regional scale data fuse that together, look at the calculated vertical index sighs and bring ology of that together -- bring all that together in front of a forecaster focused on a roajal scale to spot where to think about drawing the polygons and why it's drawn here. that's a remarkable fusion of data.

it's a fabulous step forward the weather channel achieved in the early 90s. that's another critical step in the infrastructure, and then finally the instrumentation that lets the very short time frame, smaller scale insight about the dynamics happen, and that's where the radars come into play. someone -- i apologize, i forget who, commented -- joe commented i think, still struggling a bit where the snow line is. you also struggle with which reflection pool is a bird. the current radars send out waves in just one plane like that. there are radars that can send and receive with both the shape of a wave, and that's dual polarization, and that kind of advance lets you discern far more accurately the particular motion of particles and you are sure if it's rain, snow, hail,

or birds or even crickets. [laughter] that's one of the advances that's we're on the doorstep of it. it's under test and evaluation. we know a lot about it. we know about how to bring it into service. it's a capital expense. it's a budget question, and, you know, a migration path to bring it fully up to the service level that the weather forecast office folks would need. i'll touch on another radar advance. it's a little further down the hoer horizon, but it exists and is in test at norman. it's a multifunction phase array. the multifunctions are dishes that spin rapidly, you can move them in elevation, but it takes time to do a circuit and get you a 360 degree picture of the sky. solid state phased arrays, this really is an analog, your clunky disk job that was a tape moving in your machine and a flash

drive. that technology is on our threshold as well as inconstitution to the forecasting system. that would take scan times for folks like jim and ed with tornadoes instead of volume measured in minutes, it's in seconds. you would have an ability to hone in on a portion of the storm complex that you knew you needed to see much finer scale on and almost sort of stare at it in fine scale and track areas of concern. i worry mainly about sustaining. i'm obliged to care about sustaining and the capability we provide the nation today and do everything we can to be sure there's not a retreat in that capability, and secondly, i worry about the progressive incremental slow judicious technology refresh, and i worry if there's enough 10-year-old boys and girls fascinated by hurricanes, storms, and tornadoes and can come through a

strong science pipeline and continue this enterprise in the future. >> a quick comments on hurricanes in particular rmt one of the things in the future is we'll have better night vision. sometimes we had what's called morning surprise. oh, what we saw with infrared in the nighttime is different between the upper level of the hurricane and the lower level where the eye is. the event is in the future. it will give night capability and no surprise in the morning. could be 100 miles. >> another question here? [inaudible conversations] >> thanks. i'm julia edwards with national journal, and i was just reminded of all the extreme weather events we've had in the past decade, year even, and just thinking about how these vests have been archived and with budget cuts, would you see less accuracy -- would you be able to

discern with less accuracy weather patterns happening across the world? would there be a loss of data there with cuts? >> noaa's national climate data is one of the key depositories for all the data and increasingly for the output, the model output because that's our best description of what was the actual weather on a given day often is the model output, so, i mean, yes. no news to anybody who's been breathing in the last few weeks, every piece and corner of the federal budget is under pressure. the non-discretionary budgets are under pressure and have been for a number of years. i would say that has not yet in a draconian way affected our ability to continue the archiving that we've been doing, but when we bring even the npp

satellite and jps and the next generation on to line, they do generate higher precision, more fine skilled channels, more definition in the spectrum you're looking at. the data volumes take a step function forward, and we will be having to work hard to have the storage capacity and the access capacity to serve the scientific community and our own research base to try to extract value out of that, so the other piece of all of this enterprise that i fret about is, you know, we should be -- and we are doing a good job of this -- but i want us to continually work on this as well and advance it. the nation -- we invest in observations to make measurements to turn into information that matters. it's -- we should continually strive to do the measure once, use many times, and so the

archiving, the access for researchers, for private sector partners, for firms, firms that want to mine that data base and tell an agricultural concern, what's the longer term pattern here? is past still good for you in the next ten year planning horizon? should you base it on the last five year ten year average? anything shifting in the way to adjust accordingly? the data says the answer to that question is yes. it is true that trends are shifting and past is not as good a prologue as it's been in our historical lifetimes, so how do we continue to support the ability to measure once and use many times so that the country gets the maximum possible total value out of investment we make in the observing infrastructure. >> i'll mention quickly that the national science foundation also in terms of fundamental response

supports a number of things. at the university of oklahoma they compile for six weeks in the spring at every kilometer, every five minutes for the 48 states, what the weather is like so you have every kilometer every five minutes including the vertical profile what the weather is like, and as someone said in typical, it is like having all the game fields to go back and study. why do we make the interpretation, the touch down, what did the game films look like? you can imagine for this past year, these films will be viewed many times as we go back to try to understand everything that was happening. it's very good question. >> reminds me coming here that we had a somewhat similar debate more than 20 years ago with the weather service going through the modernization, and there was

a move -- do we need this next red? it's costing too much. what's the application of it? fortunately, the program was maintained, continued, the funding was continued even though there were some voices were overrun a bit, pull it back, but imagine if more than 20 years ago the nonfunding was undertaken? what would have happened this year? what is it about? if we don't remember history, we're doomed to repeat it. let's hope we don't repeat it and remember what happened more than 22 years ago with the modernization funding that was a very spirited discussion at that time. >> question here and then here. >> martha brad it national association of emergency managers, and we're always concerned about the local weather offices and the staffing of the local weather offices because those are just a matter of life safety to us.

in the current budget situation, if it -- what you already know of your 2012, will you will able to maintain all of the local forecast offices and fully staff them? >> looking for a wiping -- wink and a nod from the national weather service here. [laughter] certainly what we know of fy11 and i think what we can see -- remember, we only have the mark up from the house of representatives currently for 12, but certainly under the president's budget for fy12, we would not face any forcing functions that require any substantial realignment of any number of offices or staffing, and as you know, we work closely with beth the wfo personnel and the national weather service employees organization on those kinds of questions.

>> hi, chris mackente,. dr. sullivan and the panel, you did a great job talking about why this is a safety issue with dramatic weather events this year and it's not a partisan issue. expand a little bit perhaps on other uses of the data coming from weather satellites that's important to the nation in terms of aviation industry, fishery, agricultures, what the air force does with it. i think it's important for others to hear that this is important public safety issue, but also an important national security and economic engine for us as a country. >> dr. sullivan is excellent, but let me also say for those of us living in the great plains right now, just the day-to-day is severe weather, just the day-to-day that we're having. >> thank you for pointing

another dimension of this. it was stated some years ago that one-third of the united states gdp is weathercepstive. you -- weather sensitive. you touched on sectors that that applies to. there's also economic analysis that quantify the proportion of aviation weather delays that cost hundreds of billions of dollars a year primarily due to weather. i have to confess at the moment that fig escapes me, but in the 50% range of aviation delays that are weather related, so if you think about the way we make decisions today not just in the life and safety sector, but in the operating of the major enterprises down to small businesses that are the economic vitality of this country, i can't think of anyone -- thinking of the last 15 years living in the midwest in ohio, i can't think of anybody who i

knew in sectors ranging from retail distribution to banking to utility generation who were not paying very close attention to weather, to weather outlooks, weather trends, and refining their business operating decisions accordingly. it has become environmental intelligence which is another critical strand of business intelligence is the way i would sum it all up, and i think that statement has something between huge validity and significant validity across almost every sector of our economy if we delve into it. >> just a quick point. we remember the significant delays with volcano activities in iceland and europe. there's volcanos in the western u.s. and alaska and the new satellite will give us a 3-d view, can we fly above or below? is it a narrow band? we'll have benter observations of aerosols or the particles

from the volcanos. >> what i'd like to do now is to draw this phase of the discussion, and i'm delighted that it has become a discussion to a brief closure, but we'd like to move the discussion to room 2325 to have a face-to-face discussion. as i do close the program, i want to mention one final story from oklahoma and an acknowledgement. i mentioned my first day when i saw severe weather. i had been in oklahoma 11 months and about three quarters of a month, and we had the may 24th outbreak. i did not know what was all going to go on, but i recounted most of it except for the very final part, and that was when we evacuated off the top floors down to the first floor into the

large lecture rooms which have special construction, left the skeleton crew and the weather forecast office on the second floor: we essentially tracked what was happening on the internet on very large screens. there were children in there, dogs, cats that were in there, elderly people in wheelchairs were in there, and we watched what was happening. we watched the polygon come up. everyone got quiet. it came up just south of the national weather center almost touching it. the polygon stayed lit where the tornado touched down, and what i did not realize was the police force in oklahoma have helicopters that are deployed and orchestrated in to observe what is happening, and so the tornado passed through, the

police force helicopter came in, and what we saw was the following: there was a house completely gone, completely gone. tv camera dwelled on that, and then we saw a door open, and two small children got out, the mother and father got out, and the cat got out, and there was no house, and they just looked at one another, and i thought they would have all five been dead without what we had, and it was the polygon that simply said go to ground, and they did. that is a real event. in my final acknowledgement, i'd like to thank also not only the hu, but the ams and john malay, president of ams that is here, and dave taylor, president of

bal is here. we want to move to room 2325 for a continued discussion face-to-fashion. thank you to everyone and i particularly thank the panel. [applause] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations]???