the kind of message against his opponent and since mitt romney who is a very successful business person, very wealthy man but doesn't seem to have a common touch it's going to be easier to make that case.

against rick perry it's more a challenging because it is a little bit more of a comment by but i -- >> i think that he is a much better campaigner than people give him credit for. we appear frequently on television and the campaign against him at the primerica which the leader -- primary. he's very real and very good and then of course his team runs savage and i don't think that will run in the multi candidacy because the phones don't necessarily come to you when you take your opponent down but in. mitt romney is more treen every day voter he seems a little bit more out of touch, has less in common and to have to vote republican.

>> probably does but it's not really stated and there is no way to get to it but i'm sure it has something to do with it but i think his policies actually have more to do with it. >> i actually don't think so in terms of his religious affiliation. there's a small handful who might vote against him and they live in states we are going to carry anyhow mostly southern states but look, the president has got a big problem and you all heard it before but no president has been reelected on unemployment above 8% since roosevelt during the depression, and you know what is on the people's mind in the country, jobs. unemployment backed up by the fact they are unhappy about too much federal spending and deficits and debt and they don't like obamacare, so by definition it would be a referendum on president obama.

can republicans lose? i suppose we could nominate someone who's not acceptable to the independent voters but we don't plan to do that and other people we've talked about. >> but it's all about the economy, and what is it, 27 of the last 29 months, unemployment has been higher. i guess there's been only charlie cook told me the other day just very few months between 1948 when harry truman was elected in 2008 when i think there's been only one was it 17 months of unemployment was above 9% in that entire period. it's all finished. do you agree it's going to be -- >> agree but i also think that what matters most is the presidential campaigns at the end is when it comes to the economy to people feel like things are getting better or do

they think they're the same or getting worse? >> i think the president's team would acknowledge if people feel like things are the same or getting worse it's going to be a very long day for the president and of people to the economy's getting better and policies are helping and we are on the right track, in the president is going to have good. a lot of it is outside his control, but a great deal of it is within his control because, you know, whoever the republicans nominate is not going to be very well defined outside of the republican primary states and that is particularly true if it happens early. >> what does that mean? >> if this goes quickly like it did for senator mccain, and i don't know if it will or it won't, then you're going to have a nominee very fast, without really the kind of exposure nationally that he would want to have. i mean, john mccain was very well known and pretty well white when he emerged as the nominee. these guys are going to be neither well known or

particularly well liked. we did a poll in the 12 states that are the states that flip back-and-forth over the last three presidential elections. nine of them fled from 2004 to 2008, and in those states both mitt romney and rick perry have in - approval rating. rick perry is by 20 points. so, those are the states that are most likely to determine the outcome just as they have for each of the last three and in those states the president relatively speaking is stronger and actually running behind mitt romney right now but even within the margin of error those are the states that are going to determine the outcome. he's personally quite popular as chiarelli points out people want him to succeed. his job rating is below his favorability rating pretty significantly, and that is his opportunity to try to bring this to things in line. >> his approval rating on the

economy is in the low 30's i think in the poll but you just mentioned in the 12 states and it is nationally again people kind of like some of these other comments because of poor performance on the economy. so, yes, the dnc is already running against mitt romney but the nominee somebody else to run ads. we will have some money. we want people to draw the contrast with the president. i think the president can keep this a close race but i don't see how he is going to win if there is no movement in the people's perception about the economy. he hasn't got a few months to turn that perception around. that said, it's a mistake for the president to wrong class warfare like he is trying to do right now. who was the last person to win on class warfare, and was it eldora?

bill clinton didn't from the class warfare. jennings bryan -- i guess nobody has ever worked on a class warfare. >> i think most people certainly my party most people would say that bill clinton did not run class border because that is not what the president is doing now either but they would say that the president presented economic choices for people and said the opponent on the other side it may sound like class order to the person who's on the other side but they are a pretty clever cloud they aren't going to run down the hole that doesn't test well and the president is a very good campaign. he's starting to draw the choice and all most of these choices that he is drawing the public is 60, 65% on the side of the choice of the president is offering america and he's very careful to highlight those

things. anybody that sells the president short is i think making a big mistake. >> before we go to questions from the audience, let's just have a couple minutes on the congress and what's going to happen up there. this congress is totally dysfunctional and has the lowest approval ratings since the polling has begun. what do you see happening when people go into the voting booth, charlie? they are going to throttle a lot of incumbents regardless of the party or what happens? >> it could happen but historically it never has. usually if a lot of incumbents lose it is because of the tide against one party. if we had a close presidential race, which i think we both assume regardless which side wins they are not likely to be coattails the odds are overwhelming republicans will hold the house and the

redistricting process which is not yet completed is going to turn out to be a wash and not really give the seats to one side or the other although it might strengthen some of the republican comments and one democratic seat last election. so why don't see much july of the house. the odds are better than 50/50 incumbents might lose but in history we've never thrown out like have the congress in putting people of both parties so i don't see that. >> if there were ever going to be that iraq it would be 2,012th the approval rating is 9% and that's not a partisan approval rating or disapproval rating is basically on both your houses it's unlikely they will take back the house however the one

in 2010 that are fundamentally democratic seats so they are going to have a gravity problem on the ballot and it's a little bit higher among democrats and the paul ryan budget which every republican voted for which would make medicare a voucher program is essentially it hasn't gotten much attention lately and democrats are going to beat that like mercilessly and when they do that and remind people of what republicans voted to do to the senior citizens i tell people all the time if you were going to get into a generational warfare you want to make sure you think the generation that shows a poll in two years and that senior citizens and what the republicans have done they can argue that it's good budget politics or good budget policy i don't happen to agree with that, but it certainly is bad politics and you are going to see a lot

of attention given to that which i think are going to put many more of the racism played in currently appear to be in play right now. let's go over here to the dhaka's desk where chris moodie and rachel rose hartman are there to tell us what you're going to do. >> we've been moderating the discussion on line and questions from the audience here in the room taking a selection from those to pose to. >> tell us what the chatter is. >> what you believe rick perry needs to do to remedy the video situation did he explain to do how to fix? >> and governor perry needs to get out and focus on his record, his record of job creation which

is better than that of any other state he needs to get people to see more of that of his personal campaign and he needs to to not his game a little bit in these debates he couldn't deduct the debates that would look bad and a little rehearsal and practice he can handle them better but i expect governor perry to be a serious competitor here. he does have a lot of money in the bank which he can use. >> the question from the audience can you discuss both of your thoughts on the possibility of a third-party candidate this year especially if mitt romney is the nominee and the conservatives aren't excited about him and what are the chances we will see a third man or woman on the debate stage in 2012? >> the fact of the matter is the ballot access which requires any third party or potential third-party to make it very, very difficult to mount an effective third-party candidacy

sitting on the sidelines with an awful lot of money who can get into a race and probably would love to get into a race but is looking at these ballots access restrictions or qualifications that make it all but impossible to do and charlie is also right about if he had his day he's going to have a spirited debate within the republican party about who the nominee is going to be they're going to produce a nominee. that nominee will be stronger as a result of having gone through this process and will be in better shape to continue general election if it goes a long time because will be one of the things that happened with president obama as a result of the long primary battle with senator clinton once he started the general election with the organization in place the competitive in the general election and that was i think an advantage to speak to that better than i can but i think if you're going to have that on the republican side, to max of this

campaign is not going to look like 2008. it's going to look like 2004. it's going to be a battle for every vote and it's going to be decided by just a few electoral votes. it isn't going to be 100 like it was in 2008 but there will be a third-party candidate in my judgment. >> i agree there's not time for it. i don't think there's a demand. i think republicans will unite the housing nominee whoever that is. the negative motivation is more powerful in politics than a powerful motivation, and people want to defeat president obama. they are not only opposed to his policies, they are afraid that the employment implementation and four more years would change the nature of the country so we will have the republican party and the question is who will appeal to this independence? in the swing states the president carried last time but which went republican in the congressional election in 2010

that is the battleground. summit next question from mr. black. do you agree a sarah palin candidate could be added to the ticket to appeal to the right? we assume this question was asked in the context of the moderate nominee. >> well, picking a vice president is a complex process, and it's very personal to the mauney. so, i don't have any idea what the various potential nominee preferences are on that but let me tell you something we don't have any moderates running in the republican primary. if you look at the records and their position is on the issues, there's nobody in there who wouldn't get at least an 85% american conservative union reading if they were rated so i don't think that there will be a need to do philosophical balance but there are a whole lot of other factors that go into the

selection process and it's just useless exercise to speculate about it until you have the nominee and they began to process and even then if you're smart they won't know what they are thinking. >> we have a question from atwitter that presumes mr. kaine is the latest so-called antifrom the candidate that the surge as part of republicans looking for someone other than mitt romney come and they ask do you expect there to be another before this is all over, this is perhaps for both of you. there has been talk of the new gingrich surge to read to you see this coming or ase kaine the last one to serve before we get the elections? >> the expert republican primary politics it seems to be a rotating circuit of antiromney candidates or alternative to romney candidates and as bob pointed out earlier it was michele bachman for a while, and

everybody is probably going to get to turn the darryl my republican friends tell me to watch for new gingrich because they think that he is somebody who is substantively quite serious. conservatives love him. the sort of grew up with him if he will because he's been around for a long time coming and he hasn't really gotten the serious look. as came sort of goes through the flavor of the month and is on the back end of that, we might see somebody like gingrich or santorum kind of rise as a result if herman cain false. charlie may be right that herman cain isn't going anywhere and he's going to occupy this place for a little while. it's possible rick perry gets back up off his keister and starts to compete again but i'm just having fun watching it. >> the surge isn't over and we don't know the event of this week will cause it but it's not over. you also have to remember that even with the surge where he

went to first in the some of the national polls including "the new york times" poll that in every early stage, i will come in hampshire, south carolina, florida, romney is ahead. let me ask you, charlie coming and we will get back to you to follow-up. why did jon huntsman never become the alternative to romney? >> jon huntsman has a great record of an ambassador, he's a smart person, fully capable of being president. there was always going to be difficult to step out of the obama administration and into new hampshire to campaign for primary votes. my belief is people are sort of held arm's-length having served in the administration and he would have been better off to run leader and i hope he will run leader. >> the next question which states do you believe our key to

president obama's success? >> there are 12 and nine of the state's left between 2004 to 2008, and three of them were decided by three percentage points or less and they are all the time so it is in the midwest its ohio and iowa, new hampshire, in the west its new mexico, colorado, arizona, which probably is the latest time with senator mccain, florida, north carolina, virginia, so those are the states. if you go to the -- i don't mean to be shamelessly promoting this but it is interesting if you go to the purple strategy stockholm, there is a purple state poll and it basically breaks down the 12 states, and will be updated monthly. so it's always there for you to look at. it breaks it down by issue group and region, by the partisan affiliation. you know, if you look at

independence in those states they are probably the people in the 12 states that swing back and forth are the people who are going to decide who the president of the united states is and its narrow if you were looking at the barometer states as virginia and it's going to be the president. you can actually take it more narrow but if you look at the 12, the national journal has a great theory called the blue wall and you can take the states for the most part 38 and say these are blue, these are red and they will be again and these are the 12th that flip back and forth so you will see most of the attention and most of the money and the decision point in those 12 states. >> another question from the audience. we have 20 plus d dates in this

election cycle. the questioner asks i never thought the debates made a difference in determining the elections. am i wrong in the 2011? do you think the role of the debates have increased this year and making an impact on the outcome or is it about the same as the years passed? >> i will say that our primary debates this time are certainly having an impact. by the way they did last time in 2008. we had 18 primaries or seven in 08 and john mccain wouldn't have been a nominee without those debates because his campaign was down and out over the summer. he had been written off by the press, and properly so with the time. but he started his comeback. we didn't have any money but he started his comeback in the debates starting after labor day in new hampshire and over the course of the next six or eight debates, mccain became one of the front runners, so it was important last time and it's proven to be important this time.

it has allowed unknown candidates like michele bachman and herman cain to get enough exposure to gain popularity. it's also hurt governor perry has everybody has noted and frankly established the front runner ship because he has been steady and silent in particular at the and the level of the stage in the debates and it's reinforced his support and i think his presidential stature. >> dewolf a follow-up because we are approaching the end of the trail. >> i agree with everything if you don't think the debates matter, just ask rick perry. he was in 46 weeks ago and then he did a few debates so they seem to matter quite a bit. >> one thing i've learned how to do in my long career and that is to get off on time. thank you for kimmage.

[applause] >> show the bottom line america's needy and the firing mood. this is 40 minutes. >> thank you very much to bald, chiarelli and steve mcmahon for the first discussion. and as the second panel get set up, i just want to talk a little bit about the wonderful partnership we have with the technology in 2011 and 2012 to bring our readers and to the politically interested in curious folks nationwide the congressional connection pool.

every week the congress is in session national journal and united technologies partner on the congressional connection pool to a survey opinions and attitudes of americans from far from the washington beltway. the poll has helped provide insight and chaim views on the nation's priority and public reaction to the current political and legislative agenda. has been an extremely rewarding partnership for national journal and we appreciate the opportunity to work with united technologies. joining us today from the united technologies is dave, vice president for defense and aerospace policy. he's a 28 year veteran in the united technology and works on a wide range of domestic and international government and industry groups on behalf. please welcome dave. [applause] >> as you will see from today's

events we are not one of those inflection points of washington that comes every four years when political power realigns offering the new debate and new dynamics that come with that process. to provide thoughtful analysis of these events, united technologies proud to underwrite the united technologies national journal congressional connection pool. i think i got that right. every week congress is in session and i assume that means the house or the senate since they hardly ever seen to be here the same time any more, the congressional connection paul asks for opinions of congress with the aim of opening the lines of communication between the main street and pennsylvania avenue to promote a dialogue around the nation's priorities. and each tuesday and wednesday key findings and analysis from the poll were featured in the pages of the national journal daily, and on the national journal, to reassert today's tuesday when you go back to your office here is a national journal. it will be on page ten,

thoughtful analysis and page 11 united technologies advertisement. in the next session, the editor of the national journal daily will further highlight some of the latest findings of the poll and what they might mean for the upcoming election. once again on behalf of the united technologies i want to welcome you to this morning's event reva thank you. [applause] >> an introduction to the brilliant mind sitting before you. i know that charlie cook is a very familiar face to many. he was once described by bob schieffer as the cook report into the bible of the political community we are thrilled and fortune that charlie writes for national journal and national journal daily at least twice a week. joining charlie is not cooper, the editor of national journal daily and editor of matthew's responsible for the fabulous credible accurate and intelligent reporting you read

every day and also joining us is reid wilson, a veteran of 2006 and the 2008 campaign and is currently editor-in-chief of the wildly popular hot line. >> thank you very much. i guess i am a moderating for less. probably less than mark think you all very much for coming and united technology and the national association of home builders where i worked 30 years ago and the association for hosting this. it's exciting to come to work every day at the national journal and under the leadership of ron is very revitalized and energized national journal in an exciting way and one of the best things about it is coming to work with the people there and with my colleagues on this panel it's a sort of example of that where matt cooper is a veteran of "u.s. news and world report," republic, "newsweek" but made his name is the deputy washington chief and political

editor of "time" magazine. what a bad crowd. and reid wilson is a great example of the home run, homegrown talent within the national journal hot line organization of people to come up and learn the skills to learn the company from the inside out and develop an incredible expertise. so it is a privilege to come to work and a privilege to be on this panel with my colleagues. quote we've decided to do is each of us talk and then open up for questions from the audience so i guess i will get my first five minutes. thank you. >> you know, we have had three really tumultuous elections in 2006 and in 2008 for democrats and four republicans and while i'm not participating in a partisan wave of the kind we saw in 2006, to those of eight,

2010, i do think the the volatility isn't going to go away. and certainly the poll -- the public debt ceiling debacle this past summer i think just makes it worse and the poll but ron brownstein and matt cooper are going to be talking about and not cooper is going to be talking about i think shows just of the enormous volatility that's out there that this isn't normal, and to apply normal rules, normal historical patterns may not work so much certainly on the commercial side. so i think the -- we should expect the unexpected surge early on the congressional side. you know, just sort of -- i don't want to step on anything anybody else is going to say, but it will be to sort of to the charley bottomline. in the house representatives, democrats needed 25 seat net to gain to get a majority in the house. to be honest, that 25 is really hard.

i think the democrats are far more likely to pick up and lose seats just because you don't pick up 63 seats as republicans did last year and the biggest game for either party since 1948, the biggest midterm game you don't pick up seats without giving some other and so i think a certain amount of rebounding is to be expected, but do i think it is going to get close to the 25 seats the democrats need for the majority? i really doubt it. you know, the senate again i think it is a rebound election the its rebounding with six year terms in the senate. 2006 and the democrats picked up six seats and to those of six and now they come to this one with 23 seats compared to only ten for republicans. when you look to the vulnerable seats the ratio is 11-2 or three with 11 highly vulnerable credits and republican seats that are comparable in danger so the likelihood of republicans

picking up mabey on three on the low side, six on the high side or five the most likely is a bill curse of outcomes which seem plausible at this point but we are talking about human behavior and one year from now so a little over a year from now. obviously a lot can happen. i had a column that i guess it came out today in the national journal daily where i talked about the phenomenon and i think you will people in our business got pushed back a little bit by being overly dismissive in some people's mind but the thing is we have been hearing first of all if gertrude stein were a political analyst looking at the campaign i think she would say there is no there. the critical mass you usually see even in the dark horse campaigns that beat the point

spread and either win nominations or are not so much there. you go back and look at george mcgovern and 72, jimmy carter in '76, you know that howard dean phenomena, the resurrection of john mccain. there was more of a critical mass of the campaign infrastructure. a lot of good strategists that have been there and have done this kind of thing before either on that level or other high levels. fund raising potential. there was a fitness to that, randomness spending two days going the length of tennessee until march 6th and then we started hearing some of the grumbling about some of the problems during the tenure of the national restaurant association and you can sort of tell this is going to be short-lived. my guess is i think the probability is very high that we

are going to see that romney is the republican nominee to the question in my mind is it is quick and clean or is it long and dirty and if it is quick and clean where he wraps up the nomination, and wrapping up a real tele-tv to realize is a relative term there is a point before hillary clinton dropped out that you knew that barack obama was going to be the democratic nominee so it wasn't technically over but it was kind of over. the question in my mind is does it allow mitt romney to put the thing together and pick a running mate based on quality of the running mate or is he forced to do all kinds of contortions. what john mccain did in 2008 and try to pick some sort of bizarre nominee to reinforce the shortcomings. early on she could pick mitch daniels, he could pick tim pawlenty, ron portman, somebody that sort of exudes and

reinforces the top of the ticket the way that al gore reinforced bill clinton back in 1992 or is he forced to do business are things that are distracting but really kind of short weaknesses message to me that is the sort of bottom line as i see at but let me turn to my colleagues. who wants to go first? >> i can take a shot at that. let me echo what charlie said it's great to come to work with so many wonderful and interesting people and the job with a hat you can have a half-hour discussion of the kentucky six where indiana with 35 house seats. to tie in with what you said to the connection poll that i've been working on and publishing in the national journal daily, this has been agreed survey and ever so delighted in the technology has chosen to underwrite with us because they

are like snowflakes the milk on impact and tell you what they had that day. i think what we try to do is get inside of the politics and policies to make sense of this congress and explain to the legislators themselves and the country, and what we are finding, what i am finding is the most kind of complicated political war that i've ever seen. anyone who thinks the understand where the congress is going i think is being cocky. for instance you take any number of issues that we've lived in, trade, the environment, jobs, i think that you see a split electorate in ways that are not predictable for instance weed pulling on the environment and not long ago and we get deeper into the policy on things like cap-and-trade and revealing regulations we found pretty wide support for the republican notion that too much regulation is hampering the economy which

would seem to bode well for the gop if they pursue their policies and enter the reelection next year. at the same time we saw when you got into the specifics people were much more wary of changing the smokestack regulations and such and the sort of classic idea that people may be kind of conservative and a theory but in kind of operationally more liberally and pragmatically get to different stations. we saw fascinating results in terms of trade. i think there's a tendency to think of one party as more patriot than the other, but we found a huge segment of the republican electorate weary of china or weary of the free trade deals like the three with columbia, panama and south korea that just passed congress. on the other hand, we found the most pro trade constituency that we have seen with more affluent democrats, even more than more affluent republicans. so, i think the landscape is quite model, and i think it's

going to be very hard to make a call on who can prevail on those. i do think -- and again, tell me if you think i'm off on this is a past we've election that has tended to elect candidates who couldn't stand the buffeting that would come in the following election. i think we saw some of that in 1980, 1990 some of the senators couldn't make it to the second term because they were lucky to have done it in the first place. this time there's a little less than that. the democratic senators that one in 2006 on a little stronger this time than in the previous waves of elections but i think in terms of the larger question of who is going to pick up the exit number of seats those are pretty tough to decipher. >> i will talk about a couple of those in a moment and i will echo my colleague is always nice to have charlie cook about four

doors down the hall and to see somebody at the meetings every morning. so, charlie is very bright i think the odds of the moment of the republicans taking over the senate is probably better than average. the democrats have 53 seats in the senate. republicans have 40. the need for to go for assuming president obama is really liked it but they will take over so they've got control for that three weeks between when the congress is sworn in and when the president is sworn in. there are four seats that seem to help the democratic open seat in north dakota and of course senator ben nelson who by the way has not said definitively that he will run for reelection. keep an eye on that. that may provide a sort of unpleasant surprise for democrats. then the two incumbent democrats i think that you brought a good point they are me be better positioned personally than save

republican incumbents elected in 1980 or '94 who ended up losing six years later. claire mccaskill and jon tester, both of them are going to have -- those races are going to be fantastic to watch. i don't know why people are pulling a lot of the races these days. they will be two-point race is no matter what. if tim kaine and virginia is up by one or george allen is up by one and it's basically the only result you were going to see from now until the end of the election. the partisan polls that actually get into the issues and why people are voting for one or the other, those would be the ones that matter. the democratic open seats are largely in the states that are going to be competitive in the presidential election and in the states like wisconsin, which is perpetually it part of what we call the blue wall but may in fact be a little more competitive this year. we saw the big republican swing in wisconsin in 2010, in mexico

perpetually a swing state moving away from republicans i think, but a chance for the former congressman heather wilson if she remains unscathed largely in the republican primary to steal a democratic senate seat and i already mentioned tim kaine and george allen, another fantastic contest, to titans were already known by 99% of the entire state. it's going to become i think this is going to be fascinating battle to see whether or not a democrat running with president obama is going to be able to appeal to republican voters in the southwest side of the state and the hampton roads area and whether or not the democrats can turn out the kind of voters in the northern virginia suburbs that has led them to such success in the past years. of course there are some other states that are going to be competitive. i think it is great if the cook

report has called hawaii a tossup state. maybe somebody will pay for me to go out there and report on the race. it is a fascinating race. to democrats in a state that tends to provide the democratic base. it's such a one-party state i think there are five republicans in the state senate and 25 too or something like that the margin is start but when you get a republican who can appeal to the democratic voters or independent voters that republicans can surprise some democrats. they raised something like $400,000 in the first three days as a candidate. that's more than both of her democratic opponent raising the previous quarter. so it is a sort of sleeper race to watch an opportunity for the republicans may be to create a bit of a surprise. in connecticut interestingly i think it's the end of the day we will break towards democrats the

two contests on the republican side better going to be such, competitive next year for the races in nevada which i think is the greatest contrast of the need to candidates who are going to run up against each other. you've got dean heller, the guy that rides his horse into the sierra nevada mountains for his idea of a vacation every summer from carson city and then shelley berkley whose dad was the maitre d of the sands, she was a cocktail waitress herself the real of that contrast. it's a state in which those areas are sort of fighting for political dominance. clark county versus the county where perino is and dean howard was to support john ensign. this will be another race that is a two-point race both sides don't have margin for error or growth either and then of course in massachusetts i think a lot of republicans will tell you

that they were not surprised by elizabeth warren's first performance she raised more than $3 million in about six weeks and everybody thought that she would be an interesting candidate. now i think republicans realize that scott brown may be in serious trouble. brown still has an appeal to the independent and crossover voters more so than almost any republican on the ballot this year. but it's going to be stuck in the beat cutoff and president obama is probably going to win with 55 knott 60% of the vote. the larger picture the was that there is a pervasive pessimism among the voters. charlie mentioned in 2006, 2008, 2010 we've had three elections in a row. voters are accustomed to voting against. the problem with cindy love of democrats and republicans have had is the assumed positive election results mean a mandate. the 2006 elections were not a

mandate for congressional democrats, they were the incumbent republicans and president bush. the 2008 elections were similarly not a benefit for the ratification of president obama's policies. they were a rebuke of president bush's policies. 2010 in no way was the ratification of what the house republicans wanted to do. it was instead a slap at health care reform and cap-and-trade and everything that the stimulus, everything democrats did that was not popular. i think we are going to see that again in 2010 and i think a lot of incumbents are going to get fired. whether or not that is a -- whether or not that means democrats when all of seats or not, we will see. but at the end of the day it is going to be quite able to was election. with that i will give it back to charlie.

>> any interim thoughts before we go to q&a? >> i would say to add on to it i think it's very interesting how the dynamics affect the congressional because we think would be pretty close linda is a candidate and she had one of the best jobs in the world, the mayor of mali which is what i aspire to before she became governor, but obamacare that is about 70% in 2008 probably democratic state and our first hawaiian president so can a republican get elected? >> one of the last three governors races and short of winning so, you know, i think she's got the recipe. we have a lot of pushback in the tossup and by my perfectly comfortable think any of their rating than that would have been

bizarre. we will see. sometimes you have people that vote in the state that normally goes another direction we look at all of the elections the one in north dakota over the years and that is an incredibly the democrats for a time had to crack the code but anyway, why don't we turn over to our friends, questions from the audience or yahoo!. >> people sometimes make fun of us for being a equivocal and caveat. super majority, it is impossible. >> it is. if you gave republicans 53 seats, 54, that's about -- that's probably about as wide as they could possibly get, and that is just no where near the

super majority. but the underlining -- you know, we could talk about the partisan waves, but the underlining seats just aren't there for the republicans to get up 60, 59, 58 seats. it would be really, really extraordinary for that to happen. i think if you gave republicans a choice of taking 53 seats or you wanted your shot at 56 seats on think they would take the 53 and run. >> the next is on the presidential politics. when do you think the republican nominee will be clear? is there any way to handicap the primary calendar? >> when will the republican nominee be clear? there was an interesting story this week by john heineman taking a look at the possibility that mitt romney might get involved in the iowa caucuses if

he thinks he can win thanks to the weak field. if romney doesn't of winning, if he can put together the two wins and i will come hampshire, it is pretty much a knockout. it is difficult for any candidate to compete beyond that. beyond the first couple of primary states called for in florida and going on january 31st in nevada and february 4th after those the calendar starts to favor mitt romney. there's not going to be an election then or serious one until february 28 when arizonan and michigan hold their balance. obviously he's got the connection with the state of michigan and he's always been very popular there and the national hot line ran a straw poll is the republican gathering earlier this year and despite the fact that romney's campaign doesn't want to talk about the straw polls he took 51% of the

vote. every part of the establishment and michigan arizona has a huge population that plays a big role in the republican primaries out there and romney is actually to the state and laid groundwork and a lot of theater candidates have and so the calendars to benefit mitt romney as we get leader in to feb once it becomes a national primary on super tuesday and beyond that's when the dominoes fall at the latest is march 6th. the - romney gets involved in iowa and is able to sort of land that knockout punch we can be all wrapped up by the middle of january. >> is there a consensus going to new hampshire based on public opinion polls now if he wins iowa we are done right after new year's, do you all agree? >> my reaction to that is what is clear, clear to there is a

point of these things start setting and it's obviously going to plea of longer where you kind can tell where this is headed and you look at money and this is kind of like the older charlie sheen show to and have meant. you have romney and perry and then ron paul kind has half as much funding and nobody else has scott and its lead to turnaround you look at the national apparatus of the polls and the smallest. you look at who has done this before, who's got the mechanism in place to get vantage. i don't think that this is going to go real long to be perfectly honest. >> the buyers are more in 2008

we saw mike huckabee stick around a number of primaries even though the map seems certain from the beginning it couldn't make it to be the nominee and someone will stay in this and live off the land and keep firing shots at the presumptive nominee so it will take awhile to plan not in fact and. >> a question from the audience with a variety of initiatives be a factor in the 2012 election cycle is it possible to change the outcome even of some congressional or presidential election. >> you're fascinating this year. one of the first things the state legislatures to when they switch control is the tinker with the election rules. this happened when democrats took charge in 2006. we saw the window for the ascent heuvel let's widen dramatically. friday laws raviv and on the

table. it was easier to get an absentee ballot and to register the vote neither republicans have come in the in so many state legislatures those windows have narrowed, the restrictions have increased identification laws have come into effect, so there are a few states in which the margin is going to be so slim i think we are talking about in a big state a matter of maybe 1500 votes it would be surprising if the presidential election would come down to such a small number of votes but if it as a would-be states like north carolina, where a huge factor now is basically dealing with the president obama has of winning the state's like indiana around 2008 indiana is pretty much of the people in 2012 or for the president and the state like virginia with high minority populations, high rural populations are all places the

voter lady could have an impact but only if the margins are extraordinarily unlikely that ends of deciding any races. >> how do you believe the house gop immigration policy efforts affect the electoral prospects in the future in the short and long term and the second part of this question is how will the rubio candidacy affect this process these as well? >> i didn't get the question. espinel on immigration, house republican immigration. >> well, you know, i think it's a bit of a gamble for the house republicans. it's hard to believe a was just 2008 when there was pretty much a consensus on the immigration reform. you had ted kennedy, george w. bush, john mccain, barack obama, all pretty close to the same position which is that we need to find some kind of

pathway towards citizenship for those who are here illegally and come up with some kind of process they may have disagreed about the details, but there was a pretty wide consensus and we are in a very different place now with nobody in the gop presidential field favoring anything like that and certainly not in the house republican conference. the democrats, nevertheless, keep bringing of the immigration policies from 2008 and precisely improve their prospects among the ever growing hispanic population so president obama is making the calculated bet as he weakens in some of the traditional midwestern industrial states he can venture forth and try to recapture nevada, capture arizona the your etc. you know, i don't think we know how the politics will play out right away, but i think that we do know what the demographic trends are building and in the long run, you know, those are

going to favor those who are having more attraction with hispanic voters. >> this is an issue republicans need to take very seriously that the hispanic vote because what is effectively happening is the goal posts are moving back every single election in terms of the presidential elections for republicans. and 1992, 87% of all voters were white. 87%. four years later the drought to 83%. four years later in 2000 they dropped to 81%. four years later dropped to 77%. by 2008 it dropped to 74%. so the drop in the five elections from 87 to 74% of the voters that is a problem for the republicans and to put in a practical context in a 2000 the bush tory election which nationally was selectively of the election george w. bush got 54% of the white vote.

by 2008 when john mccain won in the election were lost the election mckay and actually got 55% of the white vote he did one point better than bush had done in 2000, losing by seven plus%. so you look at that and say this is an issue that if republicans can't, if they are going to get buried among african-american voters, they can't get buried among hispanic voters where they have been when he or in a whole stop digging there would be advice for republicans right now. >> switching to converse, this person asks the think john boehner will become a stronger speaker if a significant number of his tea party aligned freshman lose the reelection bids? >> i seem to be a happier person. [laughter]

>> i always wondered in the privacy of the polling booth who did mitch mcconnell vote for? [laughter] >> look, the tea party got him there, you know, simply because there was this incredible freshman class phenomenon which was tea party driven. but look it's hard to write the tiger and i don't think he anticipated we would have had this incredible series of moments over the government shut down over the debt ceiling he had faced it had once been unheard of in washington we have a shut down before the debt ceiling bringing markets to the catastrophe just wasn't fun of -- far enough in the realm of possibility. so he's got a tough job. but on the other hand, he's the

minority leader. >> of the republicans in the house, so that's what, 24 seats he could lose before he lost the majority but in the darker moments he makes that list. john boehner, to his credit, she has kept what could have been an absolute nightmare pretty well in check i think. the caucus has been largely united on most bills there haven't been that many defections and the few there have been haven't had enough to cause some real headaches. >> i agree and i would also argue most of the tea party members are sort of to bring the rhetoric a little bit, toning down and this becoming i guess from their side they might say coopted, but basically getting more exposed to some of these

things and moving a little bit more towards the mainstream and the same time i don't think there's any questions of the exotic and potentially problematic members probably won't be coming back, and that's probably okay but i think it's coming together for boehner as well as to be expected in the circumstances. but the other thing is i think at the risk of incurring a the wrath of the tea party movement for the 57th time i think a lot of this is in new bottles. when i look at members of my family who are by any measure tea party people they were pretty conservative before the tea party movement was invented. and neither one of them voted for president obama kurson measure o baala, not one voted for john kerry or for al gore. they have a new label and identity, what we are talking about people that are pretty right