but those -- those are important issues, those are segments and that's not to say the left hadn't had an impact. but if i'm talking about seismic changes, to me the new deal state and the conservative revolution of the '80s are the two biggest seismic changes in the american politics in the 20th century. >> we have time for one more quick question. >> the quick question involves jobs, hollywood, whether it's right or left, it's more corporate or not, and it's a star system where the stars will work whether it's in louisiana or michigan. what happened to -- to the support of the unions and jobs here in california? there's also a tax issue, tax credit issue. california is not competitive at all. so left or right, isn't it more corporate versus union?

>> yes. [laughter] >> it's the money-making business. that's the bottom line. it's a business. i can tell you ella teaches at the film school. even though i'm in the history department i have a lot of ph.d. students from cinema, and they would tell me that -- and of the undergraduates on the first day, they say if you want to make art films go to nyu, if you want to make a living come to usc. they are under no illusion when they're being trained that they are being trained for a business and the business is about making films and the business is about making money on those films. and so if going to vancouver or toronto or louisiana gets you a tax credit that makes it cheaper, that's where you're going to go and you can -- if you want to really interesting stuff, read ozzy davis and ruby dee's collective autobiography where they talk about going to

hollywood, ruby dee in the late '40s to make no way out and not seeing a single black person below the line, not a single black person working below the line. so there's never been much concerned below the line in the industry and again -- when you look at hollywood, you got to make a distinction what i would call corporate hollywood and creative hollywood. today, we've been talking about creative hollywood. but make no illusion, corporate hollywood runs this town. >> if i can just add to that. >> oh, i'm sorry. >> i came up in the business at a time, as steve just made me think of it, as i always thought of it, there was a partnership between the creative and the business people, the corporate and the talent. and the difference today is that the corporate thinks they are the talent. [laughter] [applause] >> and indeed sometimes they are. i mean, i just showed my student

the social network today, you know, definitely a film that was made and distributed by a corporation. it's probably one of the best films of the last decade. so even that is kind of a difficult area, i think. i just want to thank all of you for coming tonight. and also to urge you once more to help support the library foundation, but in particular to thank our panelists for coming tonight. [applause] >> you're watching booktv on c-span2, 48 hours of nonfiction authors and books every weekend. >> and now from the 2011 texas book festival in austin, a panel on the arab spring with robin wright, james zogby and austin bay. this is just under an hour. >> good afternoon, everyone.

welcome to the texas book festival. i'm rick dunham, the washington bureau chief of the houston chronicle and hearst and my fan san antonio.com. also doing a lot on perry presidential because some guy from austin is running for president. in my free time, i'm president of the national press club's journalism institute, which -- of which the crown jewel is the eric freed heim journalism library and library is what we're all about here. the texas book festival benefits public libraries in texas and literacy programs, and i encourage you to buy the three books that we're going to be talking about in the next hour, not only because they're really good, and they are because all the proceeds will benefit public libraries in texas like the one in silsby, texas, where my wife

comes from. the texas book festival really meaning a lot to the libraries. let me talk about the program about that, i've been asked before we start to tell you to please turn off or silence your cell uphones. there have been some problems in previous sessions, but because we are allre about the arab spring, feel free to tweet or to put facebook updates or videos up during the next hour. this week, the world was transfixed as images of a wounded and a dead moammar gadhafi were displayed on television and the internet. and in the united states, what struck me three cable news networks described gadhafi's death and then asked what did it mean for w president obama's re-election campaign. well, thatbe shows what's wrong with america's perspective on arab and muslim world. we always think what does it mean for us. not necessarily what does it

mean for the countries involvedr or the the arab world or the mu world or the entire world. but today we have an outstanding panel to bring us various perspectives on what is going on right now in the arab spring, s of change in the middle east. let me introduce the panel briefly and then we will have presentations made by each of them and then we'll get on to a discussion. james zogby, the author of arab voices, what they'reut saying t us and why it matters is the president of the arab-american institute and a senior advisor to the polling firm zogby international, with which i've worked closely in pie time at business week and at the houston chronicle and hearst newspapers. he writes a weekly column that appears inme 20 arab newspapers and w host as weekly discussion program on abu dhabi television. next we have robin wright,

author rock the casbah, she's reported from 140 countries for "washington post," "los angeles times," new yorker, "new york times" magazine, "time," the atlantic, sunday times, foreign affairs and others which i will not list. she's won many wars among them the u.n. correspondent's gold medal the g national magazine award, the overseas press club award for best reporting in any medium requiring exceptional courage and initiative. her sixth previous books includes dreams and shadows the future of the middle east, the last great revolution, turmoil and transformation in iran, sacred rage the wrath of militant islam, flashpoint, promise and peril in a new world, and in the name of god, the khomeini decade. and then batting cleanup is austin bay author of ataturk, the greater general of the

ottomanol empire. he's an adjunct professor at the university of texas, a radio commentator on npr and klbj, a retired reservist, a colonel and an iraq war veteran and principal in a high-tech consulting firm. one of his books the quick and dirtyfi guide to war has gone through four editions and he has been writing about the near east and the balkans in several decades. his book is a work of special relevance today, not just the time period in which it took place. so i would like to start off by turning the microphone over to robin. >> thank you very much. first of all, i want to thank the texas book festival. i've always wanted to come to austin. i've had a wonderful time, great city. and i look forward to coming back. [applause] okay.

today is an extraordinary day to be discussing this panel. 28pa years ago i lived in beiru and i was awakened on april 23rd, 1983, by a thunderous explosion.o the largest nonnuclear explosion anywhere on earth since world war ii, the largest loss of u.s. military life in a single incident since iwo jima. it was the very -- it was the second suicide bombing against anas american target anywhere i the middle east. 241 marines lost their lives that day. in contrast, today, an unprecedented number of tunisians turned out at the first free and fair democratic election in the country's history. [applause] >>st with extraordinary -- [applause] >> with extraordinary enthusiasm. and what the two incidents illustrate is the amazint g

transition that the region is undergoing. this is theon world's most volatile region, the last one to hold out against the democratic tide that swept the rest of the world over the last 30 years with the end of apartheid and minority rule in south africa and the military dictators in latin america anond the dictatorships. i think there's three very different things that are happening entoday. the first we celebrity with the tunisian election. tunisia is where the first arab revolt began last december, the first election in the region in the aftermath today. and it is a challenge to the political status quo to the geriatric b autocrats and dynasties that have dominated this region really not just for centuries but in some cases for millennia. the second thing is, again, a

separate but related part. and that's the challenge to extremists, to osama bin laden and hif s affiliates. it's reflected in lots of different ways, but it is a reflection first and foremost of the fact that people in the islamic world have faced a far greaterf challenge and paid a fr greater pric fe than even we ha in the united states. when you look just at iraq, where the united states announced on friday it's going to pull out its troops, we lost about 200 americans to suicide bombs since 2003. in that same time frame, iraqi guess have lost over 12,000 to suicideis bombings alone. they have paid a higher price and just as we have taken on have the majority

ofx muslims in the region. and the third part of this common trend is the rejection of the c islamists, the rigid theocratic idideology, which is represented most of all in iran. and we saw that in the aftermath of the 2009 election in iran where millions of people spontaneously took to the streets in over a dozen major cities and more than two dozen smaller towns to challenge the outcome of an election. the green movement was born. it's been quashed, but the opposition is not dead. and this challenge is not over. i talk about all three of these as part of a common trend which i call the counter-jihad. and it's reflected not just in the politics of change, but also the culture of change. one of the most interesting things to me -- i spent two years wandering going back to a region that i covered since octobelar 6th, 1973, when i land

in the middle east and it was the day the fourth middle east war broke out. ihe kept -- i've covered all si wars, the two inde-fatahs, the iranian revolution since then that every time i landed someplace there was a disaster and my father said to me, you wouldn't dare go to bermuda to vacation because there surely would be a coup d'etat. [laughter] >> the culture of change is reflected in lots of different ways.re in what i call hip hop islam. rap has become the rhythm of resistance in the region where young people in the same way, young americans in the 1970s turned to hip hop as a means of rejecting gang violence but still delivering an angry message. it's the same thing in the arab world. and we saw this with the emergence evens before tunisia' revolt began of young rappers in tunisia where hip hop was -- nobody ever told me to talk

louder. [laughter] >> where hip hop was illegal and you found young rappers who were challenging the regime by putting lyrics on their facebook page,bo the one place that the government couldn't censor with lyrics that wereyr angrier any politician, any opposition member had dared to utter in the 23 years since presidentin bena tookal power. it's also reflected in the theater of t counter-jihad wher you find playwrights that has plays a jihad in them, because different kind of jihad. one of my favorites is by a young egyptian called jihad joe and the babes which is a parody on muslim stereotypes. another one is till jihad do us part a play on the marital vows which believeit it or not is a

romantic comedy. it's also reflected in the comedy, the new muslim comedy. where you find young muslim comedians telling jokes against theng political status quo, against the extremists, against the religious theocrats, again in ways that a lot of the politicians won't. and introducing more importantly the idea of skepticism and cynicism and ridicule. kind of a common denominator, comedy as a tool of counter-jihad. anyway, there are lots of different angles. i want to close with a couple of points. we celebrate today. it's an extraordinary day, the beginning of what ise call a beginning. it is a longic process. we should have no illusions about the magical capabilities of the arab spring or the arab

uprising. the challenges are many. one of them being these basic o of dividing up the political and economic spoils. my great fear is that the message that resonates in this country today it's the economy, stupid. where only one country of the 22 arab countries has the means to make the transition. and that ironically is libya. and still faces lots of problems. there's 140 tribes and clans, 30 of which are important. but libya has only 6.5 million people and a lot of oil wells. so it has the means of reconstructing the thcountry. it has a transition government that's hadpr several months to deal with everything from developing foreignuc relations d dealing with the outside world to picking up garbage. the rest of the countries in

that region face far greater obstacles, egypt with 85 million people, no real natural resources, a little bit of natural gas.pl but nothing to write home about. and the challenge is, how these countries are going to give the young people who put their lives on the line and demonstrated extraordinary courage a sense, a of the future at a time that unemployment is growing by the day. that the economy is in all these countries undergoing transition, are in ever deeper trouble. the second problem they face is the writing -- developing -- define a new political system. in iran in 1979, a revolution that was also about democracy, the process was highjacked by clerics during thepo writing of the constitution. when there were over 6,400 amendments proposed to a new and the divisions among the groups that together ousted the shah, toppling a form

of government that had prevailed for 2,500 years were so deep that two of the groups started killing others. and over the next 18 months, over 1,000 senior officials were killed including a president, a prime minister, a 27 members of parliament. and it was during that chaotic process that ing ayatollah khomeini came back from the religious center and said the clerics must serve in a supervisory position through all the traditional branches of government and that's the system of government that we're stuck with today. so while we celebrate the election and whatever transpires, we have to also remember the challenge of developing these new political systems. and the final thing i'll say is on u.s. policy, which i think actually has done pretty cwell. we haven't been consistent. we are often in response to events that are happening on the

ground. when millions of people came out to the streets, we cannot say they are not legitimate. we are inconsistent when it comes to countries like saudi arabia, some of those in the gulf because of oil, the factors that have defined american policy for the last six decades still determine our position. and history will look back on us, i think, with lots of questions about what we've done. so just like the arab world is in a world of beginning, so are we dealing with our foreign policy and dealing with what is the most important chain of events anywhere in the world in the early 21st century. thank you. [applause] >> thank you, robin. [applause] >> james zogby's book arab voices is really important for all of us to read, to get a sense of what the arab world or

arab worlds or islamic worlds thinks of the united states, what the aspirations are. you really do get a much, much better sense of what is inside the mind, the perceptions and misperceptions of the arab world and let me just turn it over to jim zogby. >> thank you very much. not to outdo you but i've been to austin four times. [laughter] >> and what brings me here is the lbj library which is one of the extraordinary institutions of its kind and i recommend to everybody out there watching. if you go to any presidential library, that's the one to -- the one to visit. it's not only the story of a great man but it's a story of an incredible era in our i history our springis when the cultural revolt inib america literally transformed who we are and how we see ourselves as a people, from civil rights to peace to the environment.

and it's all built around the story of the president, and how he reacted to it and so it's a great place to visit. i want to talk a little about the arab world and i also want to talk about us because the book that i wrote is not just about the arabs and who they are, but it's about us and what we don't know about the arabs. the issue for us is a critical one because as i -- as i like to point out, even before iraq, even before iraq, since the end of vietnam, america has sent more money and sent more troops, fought more wars, lost more lives, has more at risk in the middle east than anywhere else in the whole world, every president since jimmy carter has had his presidency defined by success or failure in the region from thele iranian camp david a the iranian hostage crisis up to the arab spring and leaving iraq and all of the issues confronting president thobama.

and yet with all of that, it is a part of the world americans just don't know. when we in our polling ask questions here at home about the arab world, the answers become shocking. national geographic actually did one a month before the iraq war was to start, asked americans to identify iraq on a map. only 11% could. when the same question was asked in 2009, it jumped up to 37%. we just completed a poll here in the united states about america leaving iraq and asked a whole series of questions and what was absolutely startling to me weren't the favorables and the unfavorables, but it was about 50% of the american people who really had no solid opinion at all because we remove ourselves from this and live a life as if that region and all that's going on in it doesn't really matter to us. and it's not just the american people doing it it's the

american politicians doing it. they might know about the issues. it really doesn't cut anything in washington to be a pro on the middle east and i better leave that alone and i can be a champion on e this, that and th other issues i want to deal with. and in the republic the debate is, as it even comes tangential to the middle east is, whether or not president obama threw us undere the bus or it's over oil. we're in real trouble. in handling not just the arab spring and the tumultuous change it represents but just handling daily life and our ordinary comings and goings in a part of the world where we're so heavily invested. where so much is athe stake and risk, it is don't g that we just know. we don't know because our educational system does not prepare us.

i mean, frankly, if you look at our textbooks and state of texas, your t board of educatio actually just passed ad resolution end of last year to roll back changes that had been made in textbooks and demand that the new content that was put in be taken out before texas them.buy and you all set the standard for the rest of the country 'cause you're such a huge market. there are literally organizations that have been formed toni remove from textboo the things that have been added to change them to make them more relevant and more helpful to our young people to understand the middle east up through 9/11. middle east got scant mention if at all. i remember when i was at school. at the pyramids. i think it was productti placement. 'cause you wouldn't have known what was on the cover of the camel secret if you didn't -- oh, yeah, i recognize that. it's the pyramids, right?

yeah. that must be good. but that's what we knew. and it was a section on bedouin life. the fact that there was a contribution that islam and the arab civilization made to the west. we talk about the dark ages. there was no dark ages. what happened was trade routes moved south. when they moved south, so too did wealthd move south and advances in technology and art andan architecture moved south well. and when the renaissance occurred, it wasn't 'cause somebody dug up plato and aristotle and said oh, my god they had been buried or somebody said i think i'll do this with music instead of that, it was because trade moved north again. and with it moved wealth and so too did knowledge that had been developing in the south moved north. we could havsoe taught history if it were a continuous flow of learning with civilization being

one process of civilization because we don't teach it that way. t we get, the understanding of what we get in the arab world comes through negative stereotypes and the stereotypes come through popular culture. and i write about that a lot because it consumes me sometimes to think about what most of us -- when we poll americans and say, what's the first thing that comes to mind when you think of arabs, 85% of the responses are either oil, wealth, violence or terrorism. that's 85 -- when you ask the question, what's the best thing that comes to mind when you think of arabs, 55% say nothing. now, in fact, we are ill-equipped to handle arab spring. we region the before change and we want understand the region now that change has taken place. and what we did was in our book decided to taket a step back an say, let us understand these people and the west way to understand them is to ask them.

my mom used to tell me, if you really want someone to hear you, you need too listen to them first. know what they're saying, know what they're thinking. understand the questions they're asking so you're not ending up talking at them and you end up talking with them. we asked questions from morocco to uae and we organized them by gender and age and by country. and we findge some fascinating things is like throwing open a window and throwing the voices in and hearing what, they say, and what do they tell us? well, number 1 the myths we have aren't real. we have a myth about arabs. they're all angry. i remember i lived in carlisle pennsylvania at one point and i had just moved from philadelphia and my next door neighbor afterb aout couple of weeks came over eyeing me and he said you live there? i said? of yeah, in philadelphia, with your wife, yeah.

with the kids. he got indignant. how can you do that, they murder people every day. i see it on television. i know it. i tried to talk to him about, you know, the south philly and the italian market and the quakera meetings and chestnuthil and the lovely lincoln drive and its black bougoisi go back and if ahmed in cairo goes to the hospital and delivers a couple of babies and goes to his clinic in the afternoon, there's no story there. but if he straps a bomb on himself he becomes news and that's all we know. it is, in fact, safer to visit cairo today than it is miami beach. i swear in terms of just sheer numbers. it's safer to go to beirut this it is to go to atlanta. in reality. justr in terms of crime and violence and the incidents of the fact that bad things might happen to you. that is not what we think and

know. we see, them as angry people. i mean, the sense we get, these are people who go to bed at night hating america, waking up the american hating israel and to the mosque and hate a little bit more and watching al-jazeera and that makes them hate a little more. when we poll, this is what we find out their principled concerns in life are employment, education, health care. sound familiaruc?al hmmm, it's 'cause they're people like us. issue of close to home keeping their families intact and surviving. when we polled in egypt before the revolution, the top three priorities were those that i mentioned. when we polled just last month in egypt, the priorities were still the same. and democracy, as much as i support the arab spring and know the young people who led it and so encouraged that they're going to have a free election without president mubarak runningth aga, is the fact that democracy was no. 8 on the list.

they want government tha t delivers services. they want -- there will be a revolution of the hungry in egypt if they don't get needs met because that's what matters to them. is feeding their families and knowing that they have a future. when we asked them what they watch on television, actually they do watch the news but what they do is, they also watch movies. that's the number 1 rated shows. and they watch soap operas and they watch reality shows. i was in saudi arabia during the tunisians revolt when it was jt starting and i was at someone's home and we were flipping back and forth a couple channels and all of a sudden the 28-year-old son came in. there was a group of 12 of us watchingf the tv, 10 or 12 people, he came in and he said it's on. and he turns the tv to arab's got talent. [laughter] >> and for the next hour, we watched it debating as vigorously that show as we'd been debating the tunisian revolt. they'reviow people like us and want to be understood as people like us, not one-dimensional

political animals. they're more than that. and so what i try to do is shatter the myth and talk about theed people in their diversity in the common themes that bring them together as, in fact, a people tha t they are, as peopl who will have and want to be understood by us. se 65% say they love our values but the issue is they feel like jilted lovers. may want to be loved buy you but do not feel that you do and the policies and to veto a resolution melamine bridge that obamacare has used ha and the patriot act was

reauthorize and the patriot act was authorized for in number of more years. the message that we send is those values don't apply. your leader is gone and you have the new leader but we haven't changed at all in how we deal with you and what we want from you. it is critical we listen. it is critical we understand and it is critical we change. they are changing and we have to change. >> thank you, jim. [applause] >> as i was reading, parallel to coming out of this, one was a use of air power in what is now libya in the italian war going back a century ago. another is how to use the latest technology to spread his revolution in the years leading up to independent turkey with

ataturk as the leader. i want to turn to austin to talk about ataturk and the parallels to what is going on right now. >> thanks a lot. everyone else has mentioned how many times they have been to austin. i live in austin. [applause] some of you using the pans back and forth find that regrettable but i would say welcome to texas ball. what you have got here. i will address those questions. the technology that parallels with 1911 and 2011. after hearing what jim had to say i want to do something dangerous and stella personal story that is an anecdote that reinforces several things that chin said, coming from a different angle. 1982 i was studying in germany, spend four five month there in anticipation of my ph.d.

examination. my group of friends were syrians and the jordanians. for a number of reasons that came about in part because i was interested in the near east and writing about near eastern, led the -- middle eastern issues. i was something of a pocket historian and i could talk to them about ottoman oppression in the syrian province of syria and the ottomans. here with a bid for being in touch with their history opened up personal channels. make this short because there were a lot of personal dimensions to this but over time and you will notice this is from the syrians. i will do one of the things my syrian buddies did. we were sitting in a german cafe sipping coffee and -- he put his hand up to his head like this and said austin, this is the way

they keep us and he is talking about the facade --sassad regime. that is the way it is. i got from the other syrians. there was another fellow who was a mathematician and engineer and he went through a number of cousins who had been jailed by the assads and his brother was jailed by the assads. what are the concerns? one of the things that would come out is how is america doing? when they were talking about is a process of jobs, wealth creation, you heard jim mentioned that coming threw in some of the polls. there's also a component -- i will use this term, self determination. on the issues of -- these guys were very sophisticated on this

issue. there are only so many things the united states can do. that is not often portrayed that way but there are limits to u.s. power and you have regimes that are in place and countries that are in place and you deal with them on a state to state basis. we had numerous discussions about that so it looks like it is stack and the united states is reinforcing these but then they have interactions with american that say this is terrible. you can't live this way. living in fear and under oppression is not living. that was a common theme to my friends. jobs? economic performance, economic growth and self-determination, i am southern like the world war i historian i am instead of saying democracy but freedom from fear, putting the gun to the head leader will freedom from oppression. that is a component of it. how do we modernize so that we

don't live under this compressive yoke of fear? a little drama. i have written about this in a couple places and ran on weekly standards blog in early march, part of this story. one of my syrian friends says how does america doing? if i sum it up in one line and you can't do this, no more than i could sum up the american revolution or french revolution 1848 which might be an interesting and a lot to 2011, if i could sum it, autocrats. we cannot do that. much more complex discussion we have but at one level, this sounds pouring it, life is not a movie. if i ever get a chance to help you i will. that was not our last conversation but it was a kind of law to this long discussion we had going on for four or five month. i hear the residents of those

discussions with my friends 29 years later. twenty-nine years later. but the thing is many things we were expressing are elements that i hear coming into world war i to get back to 1911-1912, that are exposed by world war i, created by world war i or transformed. the big message out of this is -- i am trying to be a historian -- the change between the turks italian war of 1911-1912 which was and material war, colonial war, fighting and italians and turks over control -- it has an over way of religious war because the sultan in folks jihad. political tool to invoke jihad. that is what he is using it as far as to create enthusiasm

among the arab tribesmen that the turkish officers are going to use to organize to fight the italians. it is the world's first air war. you saw airpower applied in a very specific way, very helpful way. not decisive. that is libya 2011. air power was first deployed in libya, italians using dirigible's and early aircraft starting platforms or reconnaissance platforms. they would go after the turks and arab positions in the desert and do very little damage to them. aircraft technology and important technology. this applies to arabs spring. the components of self-determination to those murders, in 1911 or 1912 there

was a collision between a one of the great power in italy and the fading great power whose collapse in part, the ottoman empire of culturally islamic society that in comparative terms is failing to modernize economically, socially or technologically at the same pace as its competitors. that is one of the things going on with the ottoman empire. it applies to the austrian hungarian empire and roman ofs as well. i will leave them for another discussion. the formalization of the ottoman empire, fossil was asian of this vibrant civilization that jim was talking about called the muslim world. >> is by 1918-1919 the demand for self-determination and to bring this back to my syrian friends of 1982 that is one of the things they were talking to me about.

we feel like we have been denied. in a certain sense of have been looking for arabs spring 2011 since 1982. i was looking for it earlier than that when i talk about reading and thinking about the situation at a personal level since 1982. than as a historian and someone fascinated by ataturk who does offer an orientation to achieving modernity, economic and political modernity. the guys on the floor are carrying this as well. at the same time he sees parliamentary democracy as a tool of modernization. comedy with robert rock of, comedy and democracy are tools of modernization in that they open you up to self examination and self correction. i didn't know about the comedy. that is good stuff but it plays in with the opening of the politics as well. self-determination out of world

war i, ataturk comes to power after the turkish war of independence really starting in 1922-1923 and he offers an orientation towards modernity for culturally islamic society. how do you modernize a culturally islamic society? are was discussing with my friends in 1982 and watching that workout in arabs spring 2011 today. >> thank you, austin. [applause] we are going to open up the floor for questions at the microphone. if people want to line up, i will start with a question for robin. we have gone 45 minutes without mentioning al qaeda. i just want to bring up a quotation from her book that says al qaeda has killed many, mostly its own brethren, but it has not -- otherwise has achieved nothing.

i just want to add what you think the peak of al qaeda's influence was and why it declined. >> i think al qaeda declined in large part because it hasn't provided the basic answer is to the questions most people in the region, as i mentioned earlier, enormous price at the hands of al qaeda and they have provided education or health care or jobs or things people care about and as a result you find the majority of people in the region talking about wanting laptops, not suicide. can i read one joke from my book? to illustrate the point about al qaeda and the degree to which -- i love this joke. i have to read it. this is by an iranian-born comic who takes on the subject of extremism and reflect how far

people are going. he gets on stage and he says one guy can really screw it up for the rest of us. look at the christmas day bomber. the guy who tried to blow up the northwest flight from amsterdam to detroit. whatever his name is. i say this guy was crazy. after all, where was the bomb? right in his underwear. and the normal man would have questioned that instruction. he then switches to a middle east accent and assumes the role of a normal hijacker and a final discussion with his master's, excuse me, i have one last question for you. you say my reward in heaven is going to be 72 virgins. do you think maybe we could put the bomb someplace else? i mean, i really think i need my

penis. [applause] when we talk about what people are doing, this whole idea of ridicule and self examination is underscored in everything that is happening. >> let's go to questions. >> for the entire panel. influence on the arabs spring including toppling saddam hussein and the rise of the internet, iphone videos and twitter and others that you could mention. >> actually, the misadventures in iraq said back democracy movements in the arab world. it was a false notion that neoconservatism spread that we actually could go in and do this and the rest of the region as

george bush said, a beacon democracy, iraq would light up the region and democracy would spread. i call it an infantile fantasy and it was. aaron leaders became, one might suggest, more repressive because their people so resented their support for america. we did a poll in borden and egypt in 2005. we do it every year. in jordan we get a 5% favorable rating for america. arafat is the year liz cheney goes to jordan and rights goes to egypt to deliver america made a mistake for 60 years. we supported dictators and kings against the people and she did it in jordan with the king and people were flabbergasted at her stupidity because he was the only friend they had.

when bush needed to meet with alma lucky where did he go? jordan. king of bell agreed to match the airport and i thought if he were a congressman and the president had a 5% favorable rating and was coming to town he would have a bingo match the other side of the district he had to go to. it didn't work that way. we're pulling on that. we are doing a massive survey. it with a tool that lead to communications that helped communications, helped organize but even the organizers themselves will tell you that social media didn't create the revolt. i think without question it was the servile corruption of these leaders. hosni mubarak made reforms three or four months before, he could have gotten away without this but it was the sense that there was not just the corruption and

cronyism but it was going to be passed on to his son and continue indefinitely and when to meet at happened and to meet happened the same reason. corruption and the staleness of the party and labor played a key role in taking this to the next level. there was a spontaneous demonstration after the self immolation but what really gave substance to the organization were the islamic movement and flavor which really stepped in as they did in egypt as well. tunisia was like connecticut and cairo was like broadway. tried out one place, it worked and had a certain contagious effect. one last point. president obama gets it right in his speech in the state department when he said we did started. we can't lead it toward direct it but we can help and the help we can give is in capacity building. they do not want as meddling. this was a revolution by them,

for them, about them. it is not about us. the more we talk about leading or directing or giving advice we end up hurting those who we want to help. we are in -- [applause] -- our favorable rating in the arab world are lower than they were in the last year of the bush administration and that is something to chew on. we need to think about why. >> i think social media played an enormous role and there are three things that trigger it. one with the demographic. the largest baby boom in the world. two thirds of two hundred three million arabs are under the age of 30. secondly the majority are littered for the first time which allows them to have broader ambitions than their media environment and a sense of the world and that includes women. the two most repressive muslim

societies, iran and saudi arabia and the university students are female and the third thing are the tools of technology. you put those things together and that created a dynamic that explains why 2011 is not 1982. >> ataturk used the telegraph. >> i want to make a comment on jim's point about lower ratings in the arab world than the bush administration. and ask questions, did you read the article in the new republic three weeks ago? one of the things he pulled out of it was the bush administration and he quotes numerous arab sources, made it clear they were pro democracy. that is what i have seen out of the crucible of arabs spring in the united states. the united states is on board with that too. there was clarity about that.

i commend hamid's article in the new republic. let's talk about influence. before i get on technology one of the biggest influences on every kind of human endeavor is corruption. jim raised the issue of corruption in the states. corruption kills revolutions. corruption also kills established institutions. that is a bitter little point. ataturk's influence on this, this is one of the things the old boy insisted upon and he had his own weaknesses on this. personal responsibility was translated into resist corruption. influences on that, leadership, revolutionary leadership that resists corruption. that is one of the biggest problems, i am speaking now as an american soldier who served in iraq in 2004 and still see it

now. endemic corruption, institutions, destroy efforts to bills the state. efforts at capacitybuilding with i am all for and helping as jim said, they are undermined by corruption. that is not a technological influence but that is what is going to shape this and it always does. let's talk about the technology. we had plenty of folks sitting around and i speak to this as a father -- at one time of teenage daughters. everybody wants a cellphone. there is international media. they have to come on c-span. you can pick it up yourself and you have seen the power this has in egypt, syria, the iranian dictators are afraid of these things. they're not able to control them. that is technological penetration. the internet and the cellphone i just held up is very lateral. the way to think about this is a connection to the early 20th

century is everybody is their own telegraph operator because once you hit the speed of light, don't want to be a geek but once you hit a speed of light you have information transmission that is moving and is connected to istanbul instantaneously and you're no longer in the same way ideologically isolated and less you keep everybody illiterate. if everybody is a literate you can isolate the public but at the same time you are paying an economic modernization penalty because you get everybody and informed. that is in play. no question about it but it is not new. that is why i am speaking of the telegraph. we have jumbo jets and everybody here -- maybe not quite to new guinea but you can get to australia in 30 hours. maybe a little faster if you make the connections correctly. in a certain sense aircraft are big railroads because once you

have mass transportation moving faster than animals and the way people can walk everybody is connected. here are am talking like a technologist. i don't think technology is determined but it has been influential and we witnessed that because of the proliferation of individual communication technology. it is influential. talk about determinative, determinative is corruption. how do you deal with that? leadership. this is a role for outsiders who wish to encourage success and enhance opportunities. i am going to talk more optimistically here. one exaggerated optimism -- don't want exaggerated pessimism but that is something that can be done and encouraged and can be watched. i don't know what you think of transparency international. i like the stuff they do. they act as an outside non-governmental organization force to look at corrupt activities in societies.

>> let's go to the next question. >> this question concerns -- is directed toward austin bay. many consider turkey to be the kind of role model for the rest of the muslim world because they are more westernized and democratic but with the rise of the -- the jailing of journalists, do you think that turkey is a good role model for the rest of the muslim world? do you think they're moving in the opposite direction of the arabs spring? >> great question. i don't have three hours to give you the inside and outside. really you are talking about the intentions of the current turkish prime minister, sometimes referred to ridiculing him as sultan richie because he rises out of the justice

development party as you were saying. and islamist rooted party. prime minister werdouan was an islamist -- at the time in a turkish prison for, quote, anti state activities. the justice and development party comes to power in the 2002 election and one of these things to kick this back to what i said about corruption amid ago, he succeeded on beating the republican people's party, ataturk's in harris, the rampant corruption -- i will get to the answer. our spiritual values act as a moral hallmark against corruption and they sold that in the election and have had one election since including a big one in june. he also said in the 1990s that

democracy is a train and sometimes you get off of it. this is why i myself as a secular activists, i know what i would be a fire were in turkey. i would be extremist. at the same time, making statements like that, the undermining of ataturk's revolution and the orientation. this is my assessment as of arabs spring 2011 and i have written many hard things about the prime minister. he is learning something from it. does everyone know what he said in september when he went to egypt, libya and tunisia? i encourage you to have a secular state. really implicitly in a couple cases based on reporting i read out of the turkish press, explicitly comparing turkey's success to iran's dismal failure. we have empirical evidence what

a theocratic dictatorship does. produces poverty and oppression. trying to escape and he says i may be not a secular person but i am the secular leader of a secular democracy. that is what he said. those were the right words. is it a model? it is a model. it is an evolving situation and again, speaking as a historian, i wish i could sum this of in one sentence. >> okay. let's let robin and jim some up in a sentence or more. >> two sentences. muslims account for 1.6 billion people on earth. one out of every five. of those 57 countries turkey is the most important in defining what comes next in providing leadership. and being the most dynamic

player. whatever you think of prime minister anyone -- >> i don't disagree the importance of turkey but i want to make an observation from some polling we did. when you ask arabs who is leading right now they say turkey. when you ask questions about who they want to lead they want egypt to lead. there really is an arab narrative here and egypt is seen as the center of that 1.2 billion, three hundred fifty million our arab united by tessptionanabout corolo ton swhat thrigh.im language and culture and political concerns. a common language means there is a history and a set of values and culture that comes from created to help create the language and we are wildly different. go to od a