>> not only because they are

really good which they are because of the proceeds benefit public libraries in texas like the one where my wife grew up with a population of 6,000 of money from the texas book festival means something to libraries like that. would me talk about the program a little bit i have been asked to tell you to please turn off or silence your cellphones have been problems in previous sessions but because we're all about the era of spring feel free to tweak or facebook updates. [laughter] during the next hour this week the world was

transfixed as the wounded and then dead muammar qaddafi were displayed on television and the internet and three cable news network's described his death as what does that mean for the reelection campaign? that shows what is wrong with america we always think what does it mean for us not necessarily what does it mean for the countries involved or the arab world or the muslim world or the entire world. today we have an outstanding panel to bring us various perspectives what is going on right now with the era of spring many introduced the panel briefly then we will have presentations made that we will get on to the discussion. james zogby author of "arab

voices" is the president of the arab-american institute and senior adviser to the firm james zogby international with which i have worked coslet-- closely. he writes a weekly column that appears in plenty of arab newspapers for in post a weekly discussion and next to him we have robin wright author of "rock the casbah: rage and rebellion across the islamic world" reporting from 140 countries from "the washington post" to the near times in "new york times" magazine the atlantic and sunday times in foreign affairs and others. she has won many awards among them the u.s. correspondent gold medal the oversight stage overseas press club award for best reporting for exceptional courage and initiative. per six previous books

include green and shadowed and the last great revolution and sacred rage, flash point*, in in the name of god. then a bad team cleanup is austan day he is author of nine books a nationally syndicated columnist the edge of a professor at the university of texas and radio commentator with npr and a retired reservist colonel and the iraq war veteran and a principal of the high-tech consulting firm his book the quick and dirty guide to war has been writing about the balkans for three decades. well research military biography and with special

the vince today. i'd like to start by turning the microphone over to rabin. >> thank you very much. first of all, thank you to the texas book festival. i always wanted to come to austin i look forward to coming back. [applause] [laughter] today is an extraordinary day to discuss this panel. 28 years ago i lived in beirut and was awake and october 23, 1983 by a sender's explosion. the largest non-nuclear explosion anywhere on earth since world war ii. largest loss of u.s. military life in a single incident since you do much. it was the second suicide bombing against an american targets anywhere.

241 marines lost their lives that day but in contrast, today, an unprecedented number of two nations turned out at the first free fair democratic election in the history -- . [applause] with extraordinary enthusiasm and what this illustrates is the amazing transition what the region is undergoing as the world's most solid tile region the last holdout over the last 30 years with the end of apartheid and minority rule in africa and military dictatorship and the demise of communism with the soviet union and their world is catching up with what is happening elsewhere. there are three very different things happening today but the first one that

we've celebrated the two nation election where the first arab revolt began last december with the first election in the region in the aftermath today. but it is a challenge to the political status quo to the jury at -- geriatric autocrats who have dominated the region not just for centuries but for millennium. the second thain is a separate but related part is the challenge to extremists in light of some of bin laden and his affiliate's. reflected in a lot of different ways but a reflection first and foremost, that people in the islamic world have phase of far greater challenge and pay a far greater price than we have in the united states.

looking where it will pull out its troops we lost about 200 americans to suicide bombs it in the same time frame iraqis have lost over 12,000 suicide bombings alone they have paid a higher price and just as we have taken on extremism so has the majority of muslims in the region. the third part of the common trend is the rejection of the rigid ideology that is represented most of all with iran. and in the aftermath of the 2009 election where millions of people spontaneously took to the streets and over one dozen major cities and two dozen smaller towns to challenge the outcome of an election.

the movement was born. it has been quashed but the opposition is not dead. this challenges not know ferber are talk about all three of these as part of a common trend that i call the counter jihad. not just from the politics of change but also the culture of change. one of the most interesting things to me how i spent two years playback to reach 10 when a landed in the middle east. i covered all six wars with the iranian revolution to the point* every time remanded someplace it is a disaster my father said you wouldn't dare go to bermuda because there'd be a coup d'etat. [laughter] the cultural changes reflected in lots of different ways. i call hip-hop islam rather

become the rhythm of resistance where young people in the same way were young americans turn to hip-hop as a way to reject game violence but deliver the angry message and the same thing in the arab world and we saw this even before the ginnie shin revolt began nobody has ever told me to talk louder. [laughter] where hip-hop was illegal and you find young rappers who were challenging the regime by putting lyrics on their facebook page one plays the government could not sensor with lyrics that are angrier than any politician, opposition member had dared to water in the 23 years since the president to power. also reflected with the theater of countered jihad where four you find

playwrights' writing plays that have the word jihad in them but one of my favorite is from a young egyptian call that jihad jones. [laughter] it is a parody on the muslim stereotypes and another one is until jihad do us part which is believe it or not a romantic comedy. wrote it is also reflected in the new muslim comedies where you find a young muslim comedians telling jokes against the extremist or the religious you craft in ways that the politicians will not. and more importantly the idea of skepticism and cynicism and ridicule which

can is a common denominator as the 20 of counter jihad. there are a lot of different angles but i went to close with the couple of points. we celebrate today as an extraordinary day which is the beginning of what i call the beginning of a long process. we should have no illusions on the capabilities of the arab uprising that challenges are many one of those being the basic of dividing up the political and economic spoils. my great fear is the message that resonates today is the economy stupid will also resume in this part of the world were only one country of the 22 arab countries has the means to make the transition and erotically

that is libya and it still faces lots of problems 30 tribal plans are important for only has 6.5 million people and a lot of oilwells so it has the means of reconstructing the country and has had several months to develop lowered relations and dealing with the outside world to picking up garbage the rest of the country in the region face far greater obstacles egypt with 85 million people with no real natural resources may be natural gas but nothing to write home about, the challenge is how these countries will give the young people who put their lives on airline a sense of promise of the future at a time unemployment is growing by the day the economy is

undergoing transition the second problem is defining a new political system. when there were over 6,400 amendments to the constitution proposed the division ousted the shot toppling a form and were so deep they started to tell others and over the next 15 months over 1,000 senior officials were killed a president prime minister in during that time i eight days of the ayatollah khomeini came back from the religious center the cleric must serve in the supervisory position over

all of the traditional branches of government that is what we are stuck with today. corley we celebrate the election we have to remember the challenge and the final thing on u.s. policy which i think has 10 pretty well we have not been consistent and often and in response to events happening on the ground we cannot say they are not legitimate we're inconsistent when it comes to countries like saudi arabia because of. the factors that have defined american policy for the last six decades determine our position and history will move with a lot of questions of what we have done. just as the world is in the

beginning of a beginning sour read developing our foreign policy which is the most important and chain of events anywhere in the world in the early 21st century. thank you. [applause] james zogby book "arab voices" is important for all of us to read to get a sense of what the arab world or world's think of the united states, what the aspirations are. you really do get a much better sense of what is inside the mind your the perception of more misperception of the arab world and that may turn it over to james zogby. >> thank you very much. i have been to austin many times.

[laughter] what brings me here is the lbj library which is an extraordinary institution of its kind of recommended two everyboby who is watching if you go to any presidential library not only the story of a great man of the incredible era in our history when a cultural revolt literally transformed who we are in how we see ourselves as a people and it is all built around the story of the president and how he reacted. it is a great place to visit. to talk about the arab world and also talk about us. the book that i wrote to not just about the arabs into they are but what we don't know. hat issue is a critical one. i like to point* out even before iraq, the end of vietnam, american has

spent -- spend more money and send more troops and fought more wars and lost more lives and has more at risk in the middle east more than anyone else in though whole world. every president since jimmy carter had his presidency defined by success or failure from the iranian hostage crisis through the arab spring with all the issues confronting obama's but yet with all of that it is a part of the world americans just don't know. when we ask questions here at home about the arab world the answers become the shocking and "national geographic" did 11 month before the iraq war was supposed to start asking americans to identify and only 11% could find them on a map. the same question asked in 2009 it jumped up 37%. we just completed a poll

about america leaving iraq and asked the series of questions in what was absolutely startling to me, the favorable and unfavorable but about 50% of the american people who had no solid opinion at all because we remove ourselves and live a life as if that region in all that is going on in it does not matter to us. does not just the american people also the politicians they will the ignorance. they may know about the issues, it really doesn't cut to anything in washington to be a professional solely that allows white to be a champion on whatever issue i want to do with. with the republican party the debate as it becomes tangential to that middle east whether obama to us under the bus or muslims should take the oil deal that is about as sophisticated as the debate. we are in trouble.

to handle not just the era of spring and the tumultuous change it represents but to handle daily life and the ordinary comings and goings in the part of the world for we are so heavily invested and so much is at stake where political campeau is at risk. it is shocking we just don't know. we don't know because the educational system does not prepare us. if you look at the textbooks stayed of education your board of education just passed a resolution to roll back changes that had been made in the textbooks to demand the new content to be taken out. you set the standard for the rest of the country because you are such a huge market. there are bitterly organizations formed to remove from textbooks the things to make them more

relevant and helpful to our people to understand up through 9/11. the middle east got scant mention, if at all. the only mention was said by with the campbell in front of two pyramids. i now think that was product placement because he would not know what was on the cover of the cigarettes. [laughter] it is the pyramids? that must be good. but that is what we knew and a section went -- section on better life but the fact that the arab civilization made. we talk about the dark ages. and then the others moved south and advances with science and technology with art and architecture. and when the renaissance

occurred it is not because they have been buried or to say do this and so too did the knowledge that was developing. we could have taught history as if it were a continuous love of learning with civilization being one process of interdependency. because of the don't know is the images that we get or the understanding comes through negative stereotypes. it consumes may sometimes to think about what most of us when we polled americans when is the first thing that comes to mind when you think of arabs? >> 85% are ol, wellcome of violence or terrorism.

what is the best thing that comes to mind? fifty-five% say nothing. in fact,, we are ill-equipped to handle the arabs bring. we don't understand the region now there is change taking place. what we did in it is in my book the best way to understand is my mom used to tell me if he was someone to hear you you need to listen to them first. know what they're thinking and understand the questions they're asking see don't end up talking at them but with them. we ask 4,000 and questions from morocco to the united arab emirates and organized by gender, age, a country country, in then to let in the voices we have the myths

about arabs. they are all angry. living in carlisle pennsylvania just moving from philadelphia my neighbors said you live there? i said yes philadelphia? with your wife? yes kids? >> yes. he got indignant. how could you? they murder people there everyday. i have seen it in television. i tried to tell him about the day italian market were the chestnut hill or lincoln drive and he had none of it the image of philadelphia was formed but now if it in cairo goes to the hospital in the morning to delivers a couple of babies in goes to

the clinic in the afternoon there is no story there but if he straps a bomb he becomes news and that is all we know. to visit it is safer to go to beirut with the crime and incidence, that is not what we think we see them as angry people they go to bed at night he teeing america wake of aiding israel and spend a day in a mosque learning to pay more were watching god to zero that makes them hates even more but the principal concerns in life of our employment. education. health care. sound familiar? because people like us.

issues close to home when we pull in egypt before the revolution the top three priorities are those that are just pulled up the priorities were still the same. and democracy as much as i support the ears bring in no those who led it and encouraged to have a free election democracy was number eight on the list. a revolution of the hungary because that's what matters to know that they have a future they also watch movies. they watch soap operas and during the tunisian revolt when it was just turning and all of a sudden the 28

year-old son came in and said it is on and turns the tv to arab has talent. [laughter] so for the next hour we watch did debating as vigorously that show as we have been debating the two nation revolt. people want to be understood not just one in a wall. they are more than that. so we tried to shatter the myth and talk about people with their diversity and the common themes with the people that they are and those 65% say they love our values but the issue is they feel like jilted lovers.

may want to be loved buy you but do not feel that you do and the policies and to veto a resolution melamine bridge that obamacare has used ha and the patriot act was reauthorize for a number of years. the message that we send is those values don't apply. we did not change it all what we want from you but it is critical we understand and we change. they are changing but we're not and we have to keep up with the world. >> he thing keogh. [applause]

>> as i was reading boston's parallels kept jumping out at me like the use of air power with what is now no airpower with the war going back one century. and another is the latest technology to spread the revolution in the years leading of two independent turkey as the leader prepared would like to turn the floor over to austan to talk about the parallels two what is going on now. >> it reveals has mentioned how many times they have been two austan. i live in austin. [laughter] [applause] some of you using those fans back and forth may find that regrettable but i would say welcome to texas. [laughter] but i will address the

questions the parallels of 1911 but first after hearing what jim had to say, i will do something dangerous to tell a personal story that is an anecdote to reinforce several things that jim said. coming at a different angle. 1982 steadying in germany. four or five months there in anticipation of my ph.d. examination and my group of friends were all syrians and the jordanians. a number of reasons that came about in part because i was interested in the near east and already right team about the issues and already something of a pocket historian and i could talk to them about ottoman oppression and the provinces syria and now opening a

personal challenge. to make this short and a stand there are a lot of good intentions but, over time, i will do one of the things my buddies did to sit in a german cafe sipping coffee he puts his hand up to his head like this and says this is the way they keep us and talking about the assad regime. i will not say anymore about it because i know he is around by that is the way it is. i got from the other syrians with say math -- mathematician going through the number of cousins who have been jailed and also the fact his brother has been jailed. what are the concerns?

alternately, how is america doing? jobs, wealth creation, you heard him mention that coming through the polls but to use the term self-determination. they were very sophisticated there are only so many things of the united states can do but the limit to the u.s. power with regimes that are in place and countries in place and deal with the state-by-state basis. it looks like it is static and the united states is reinforcing but then they have interactions with the americans to say this is terrible. you cannot live this way under fear and oppression is not living and it is a common theme jobs?

economic performance? economic growth? and a self-determination i sound like world war i historian that i and instead of democracy. but freedom from fear, freedom of oppression, that is a component. how do we modernize so we don't live under this oprah's if your? i have written about this morning on a weekly standard blog early march, one of my friends said house does the mayor could do it? you cannot do this more than the french revolution in 1848 which made the interesting analog but you

have to off your autocrats. we cannot do that the much more complex discussion but it sounds poignant and life is not a movie. if i ever get a chance to help you i will. that is not our last conversation with those of we have been going on four or five months and i hear the residents of those discussions with my friends 29 years later but many of those things they were expressing our elements coming into world war i the eighth time in more than his expose, created by world war i or transformed the big message out of this, trying to be a historian but change

between the war of 1911 and 1912 as a colonial war a fight between the zero italians and the turks with control of libya the overlay of the religious war a political tool to invoke jihad to create enthusiasm that the turkish authors used to organize. is the world's first air war. you saw air power applied in a very specific way libya 2011 using the early aircraft but also going

after the turk and arab positions to do very little damage to them by the way. with their craft technology but here is the big difference applying to the arabs bring. the component of self-determination was not in play 1911, 1912 but a collision between the power in italy whose collapse in part with the ottoman empire that in comparative terms is failing to modernize technologically at the same pace of its competitors. one of the things going on with the ottoman empire and also the romanov several leave them for another discussion but nevertheless

certain components the fossil as asian of the wants vibrant and vital civilization of the muslim world. by 1918, 1919 self-determination to bring this back to my friends of 1982 that is what they were talking to me about. they feel they have been denied. i have been looking for arrow spring 2011 since 1982 actually earlier than that when i talk about the personal level then for those who do offered the orientation economic maternity and political maternity those who are

authoritarians understand seeing it as a tool of modernization. comedy of democracy are both tools that they open up to self examination i did not know about comedy but that opens the of politics. self-determination it comes to power and then restart 1922 and 1923 and that's modernize st. been discussing with my friends 1982 watching that work out 2011 today. [applause]

we will open the floor to questions if people want to line up. starting off with the question for rabin sense to go 45 minutes without mentioning al qaeda, they just want to bring apart from her book that says al qaeda has killed many, most the its own brethren but otherwise has achieved nothing. what do you think the peak of the al qaeda influence and why the fed declined? >> it has declined in large part because it has not provided the basic answers to most people in the region. here is the paid the enormous price at the hands of al qaeda not provided whether education or health care or what people care about that you find the

majority of people in the region talk about wanting laptops, not a suicide. can i read one joke from my book? proving the point* of al qaeda and the degree to which, i love this joke by the iranian-born comic who takes on the subject of extremism to reflect how far people are going to say one guy can really screwed up for the rest of us. look at the christmas day bomber. he tried to blow up the northwest flight from amsterdam to the jury to whatever his name is, i say he was crazy. after all where was the bomb? writes in his underwear. in a normal man would have questioned that instruction

then he switches to middle east accents and assumes the role of a normal hijacker in a final discussion. excuse me i have one last question for you. you say my reward in happen would be convergence -- 70 vergence so we could put the bomb someplace else? i think i will need my ap aps -- . [laughter] so the whole idea of self examination is underscored with everything that is happening. >> influences on the air of spring with the rise of the internet with any others?

>> actually the this inventors' step back democracy movements in the world. it was a false notion that neo conservative spread that we could go win and do this and the rest of the region like a begin democracy to live up and democracy would spread i call it the infantile fantasy and it was part of the arab leaders became more repressive because they resented their support for ameritech, doing a poll in jordan and egypt 2005 but we got 5% favorable

rating from america. that is the year liz cheney goes to jordan and rice goes to egypt to deliver the american made a mistake for 60 years we supported dictators against the people and did it in jordan with the king and people were flabbergasted at her stupidity because favor the only friend they had. when bush needed to meet with our malachi where did he go? jordon and the keying greet him at the airport a few a congressmen with a 5% favorable rating he would have bingo match on the other end of the district. we are pulling on that right now with a massive survey survey, of a tool that led communications and helped to organize but even the

organizers say social media did not create the revolt. i think without question of the servile corruption of these leaders and if you actually made reforms three performance before could have gotten away without this but it was the sense of not just the corruption but to pass on to his son to be continued indefinitely. when tunisia happened because of corruption and the stale party and labor play a key role to take this to the next level a spontaneous demonstration but we're really gave it substance was the islamic movement that step din as it did in egypt to the show was light connecticut cairo was

like broadway. and to get it right to say we did not start it we can now the.org directive but we can help that help is in capacity building. they do not want us meddling. a revolution in by them and for them and not about us. the more we talk about leading or directing we heard to those we want to help. our favorable rating in the arab world today is or from the bushes administration. we have to think about why. >> i have to think it is an

enormous role but three things trigger this one was the demographics of the largest baby boom proportionately in the world 300 million arabs are under the age of 30. second the majority are literate for the first time that allows them to have broader ambitions and then at the media environment and that includes women. with iran and saudi arabia over 60 percent of university students are female. the tools of technology to put those together it has created a dynamic why it is 2011 and not 1982. >> and the telegraph? >> to make day comment on the lowered ratings on the zero arab world did you read

the article a few weeks ago? one of the things he pulled out kiddies bush and administration made it clear they wanted democracy it is on board but there was clarity and it did the available on the web. one of the biggest influences of every kind of human endeavor is correction. corruption kills revolution and it also kills established institutions. that is a little point* that added influence that is what

they really insisted upon by a personal responsibility to turn into resist correction. revolutionary leadership to resist corruption one of the biggest problems speaking now of an american since soldiers serving in iraq with the corruption and institutions destroy efforts to build the state. efforts at capacity building and they are undermined by correction. that is not technological influence but that is what will shape this and it always does. talk about the technology there betty wants the cellphone that is international media.

and see what kind of power this has and the iranian dictators are afraid of these things that is technological penetration but the internet and the cellphones is very lateral. the way to think about this is a connection that everybody is their own telegraph operator. once you hit the speed of light, you have information transmission moving to in istanbul instantaneously and no longer in the same way ideological isolated unless you keep everybody illiterate. then you could isolate the public but now it is that economic modernization

because you kept everybody informed. no question but it is not new. we have jumbo jets you could get. here to australia and about 30 hours. aircraft are just being real rose because moving faster than analysts suddenly everybody is connected. i don't think it is determinant but it has been influential and we have witnessed that because of the proliferation of individual communication technology. i think determinative is corruption and how you deal with that leadership and this is a role for outsiders who wish to encourage

success and now to talk more optimistically. nobody exaggerated pessimism but that is something that can be done, and courage, i know what the faint of transparency international but to act as an outside non-governmental organization to look at corrupt activities in societies. >> let's go to the next question. >> many consider turkey to be the role model for the rest of the muslim world because we're more westernized and democratic but with the jailing of the journalist recently a kumbaya day thain turkey is a good role model for the

rest of the muslim world? are they moving in the opposite direction of the arab spring? >> great question unfortunately i don't now three hours. really the intentions of the turkish prime minister sometimes ridiculed as the sultan because he rises out of the justice and development party as the islamist party. the prime minister and politician in the time of day turkish present this justice and development party comes to power one of the things to take this back to beat the republican party

is the rampant corruption and turkey experienced in the 1990's. i will get to your answer but the spiritual values act against corruption and they have had won election in since. but he also said back in 1990's that democracy is it trade and sometimes you get off of it. this is why as a secular activist at the same time to make statements like that is the underlining of the orientation. this is my assessment was an error in spring 2011.

i think the prime minister is learning something. does everybody know what he said when he went to egypt? i encourage you to have a secular state. really implicitly and based on the reporting practices comparing it to iran dismal failure. it produces that the goals of poverty and oppression trying to escape and says i may not be a secular person negative secular leader of a secular democracy those are the right words sure it is a model and the balding situation and speaking as the historian, .

>> you can some of been a sentence. >> to sentence is. muslims account 1.6 billion people on earth. one out of every five and out of those 57 countries, turkey is the most important to decide what comes next with leadership. and to be the most dynamic player but everything whenever the prime minister has done. >> i don't disagree with the importance but to make an observation was some polling when you ask who is leading right now? they say turkey. when you ask questions about who they want to lead they say egypt. this is an arab narrative it is still seen as the 1.2 billion they are united by

language and culture and political concerns. a common language means there is a history and a set of values and culture that comes from created to help create the language and we are wildly different. go to odessa at war midland or brooklyn you have a different world but when 9/11 happened we were all mayor can coming together out of common concern and the sensibility of who we are. era of has that. it is not racial not even ethnic. but the sensibility coming from a common history and it is very real for better or worse is only on the periphery. turkey's sen