>> good evening, and welcome to c-span's live coverage. florida's g.o.p. primary. it's just after 8 p.m. eastern time, and the polls are now closed statewide in florida. this is what it looks like, early counties closed at 7 # p.m. eastern time, and you can see right now, 48% to 31% with 38% reporting looks like a strong night for mitt romney. what you are looking at now are romney headquarters waiting for

the candidate to speak to them. that's in tampa, florida. tonight, we'll analyze results and talk to people following the race closely, taking your phone calls, facebook comments, and tweets, and most of all, bringing you live coverage of newt gingrich and his supporters and mitt romney with his in florida to see how they position themselves coming out of this very hard primary in florida. let me show you as we move from this live picture. we're watching twitter with the candidates and also other key political people across the state tag romney, one of the candidates' sons posted this picture recently of the family in the convention center, and you saw that crowd live a couple seconds ago. let's get analysis of the numbers coming in. aaron blake is part of the political team at "washington post," and he's here tonight. airplane, you looked at some of

the counties as they've been coming in, and this is a very big state, fourth most pop pew -- popular in the nation, and what are you learning so far? >> looks to be in mitt romney's favor. he lost in 2008 by five points and compare that tonight to the counties, and what i found in about every county i've seen with a lot of results so far, romney is outperforming his 2008 showing by 10 points or more than that. at this appointment, and i expect right now that a lot of networks are calling this race in romney's favor, it would take something shocking for that to be overturned. >> the networks have been calling it and the "associated press" called the race for mitt romney as well. well, this primary, florida wanted to be first even though it was in violation of some of the g.o.p. rules because it

wanted to matter, so in what ways does it matter 1234 >> well, obviously, this is something that's been going on for several years now. every state wants to be important in the presidential process, and the easiest way to do that is to have the first primary. the race was set to begin in february, but florida decided to set its date for january 31st today, forcing all the other contests early to move into january, so what we've seen 1 a lot of controversy about how the rnc handled this situation, how the dnc handled the situation, and right now, we don't have a good way to prevent states from doing that, so i would expect that, you know, as the republican national convention convenes in august, they're going to be dealing with this issue again like they did four years ago, and they'll have to try to come up with some different ways to prevent states from doing this. >> well, in a post on washington post politic's page, you

explained how the delegate count, even though this is a winner take all state, really may not be settled as we come out of the contest. give our viewers an understanding of the delegate count there and how much coffers -- controversy or turmoil surrounds it. >> sure. moving their contest earlier, they forfeited half their delegates. there's a rule that if you go before april, they cannot award all delegates to the winner of the state. states want to be winner take all because it makes their primaries more important, causes bigger swings, makes the candidates want to spend money there, but since florida broke one rule, the rnc's position on this has been that, well, we can't punish them twice. we punished them as much as we can so states like florida will be allowed to be winner take all. florida took advantage of that, and there's 50 delegates at

stake tonight, and if mitt romney is going to win, he's gaining a lot of delegates from this because florida opted to go that route. now, a lot of people in the republican party led by former chairman michael stehle are not happy with this because they see florida, which broke the rules, is, in fact, having a great influence on who the eventual nominee is so at the end of the day, what kind of a lesson has florida learned if, in fact, they have been so important to this process, by breaking the rules? i think that, you know, the answer for them next time may be to break the rules again. >> did i i understand what you reported on with this process it could be negotiated about whether or not it's still winner take all delegate seats? >> yeah. with party politics, these things are decided at the convention. this thing cannot be solved until the contest committee meets in advance in august, and at that point national committee

members can raise objection todd way florida allocates delegates saying it's in violation of republican national committee rule, and then the contest committee has to decide whether, in fact, that case is compelling. i think, though, that if the presidential race is decided at that point, if there's a clear nominee, that's not going to be, you know, issue number one for a lot of people at the rnc, and it may not be an issue that they really want to deal with, especially considering that the convention is going to be held in florida. >> right, right in the old home state as they try to figure this out. i want to show people at home the washington post website with the interactive map of the state, and the red counties here are the ones that are more strongly supporting newt gingrich. when you look at the map of florida and see it broken down that way, what do people have to understand about, again, the geographic regions of the state and what kind of republicans are in various parts of it?

>> well, florida's obviously a very diverse state. there's a lot of different types of republicans in florida. in northern florida you've got the more southern republican type of voters. generally more conservative, compare them to voters in states like georgia and mississippi and alabama. in the south, you have a lot of transplants. you have a lot of hispanic voters, cuban-americans, especially in the miami area in the southern tip of florida fled there's a lot of types of republicans to appeal to. it is a very conservative electorat, we saw that tonight with two-thirds in the exit polls support the tea party. that's the one uniting thing about the primary electorat, it is conservative. moderates can't vote. if mitt romney wins a vote like that, that speaks to his ability to appeal to the conservative

base. >> back to your map again in the primary four years ago. mitt romney carried two parts of the state, around jacksonville and this area in the southwest corner of the state. look at the map today. what's different? is he different? his opponents very different from the last time around? >> well, no race is completely analogous. there was a lot of -- there was mike huckabee in the race, and john mccain, who, you know, in a lot of ways played the role mitt romney plays in this race as the more moderate establishment candidate in the race. i think what we're seeing in florida, you know, particularly if you look at hispanic voters, romney's doing better in miami-dade county where there's a lot of cuban-american, and did well in the jacksonville area, a strong base of support for him, and the fact he's essentially running the table south of orlando, you know, makes it very difficult for anybody to beat

him. newt gingrich relied on that southern conservative vote next to his home state of georgia, and it's not enough to win a state like florida, and that's why mitt romney is looking to be the winner tonight. >> last question for you because i know you have to get back to the news room. busy night of reporting for you. is it too early to say what the lessons of the florida g.o.p. primary are? >> well, you know, we seem to have whiplash right now. it looked after new hampshire, you know, mitt romney had one two state, and then after south carolina, he was down to winning only one state because newt gingrich won south carolina and iowa changed its result to go for rick santorum. i think what this result does for romney is it sets him back on the path of being the front runner. looks like he's going to win by a very substantial percentage of the vote, and now we have a long lull here where he's going to probably do very well in the contests in february because he

did very well in the states in 2008, and the name of the game for mitt romney right now is to carry that momentum into super tuesday if, indeed, his opponents stay in the race that long and deliver the knockout blow when it comes to march 6th. >> we invite the c-span viewers to find the post's website page, analyzing results, and the election thus far overall. thank you to aaron blake for being with us as we start our primary coverage tonight. we appreciate your time and information. >> thank you. >> well, carl cannon is with us, washington editor of real clear politics, a website that aggregates all of the coverage and all the polls that you need to follow for this election. carl, you wrote this morning in your news letter that goes out that florida really wanted to matter. did, in fact, it matter, and can you tell? >> well, it mattered all right. romney's winning there handedly,

by a bigger margin he'd hope he'd win, and giving this up and down race definition. >> well, this was a state where we saw lots and lots of advertisements and many by the so-called super packs that were really bombarding voters in the last week. also, there was a competition between the two in terms of who had the stronger ground game. mr. romney on the ground for quite a while there and having the advantage of years of team building in that state, so when you lock -- look at it from a tactical advantage, is it clear the super packs or ground game has the larger influence? >> well, romney has it all there, susan. he ran four years ago. that shouldn't be under estimated. newt gingrich talked about reagan, but what he didn't tell us is that reagan ran three times before he was the nominee. romney ran. he had all alliances, people for him, and he had a strong ground

game, more money, hard money and soft money, more super pack money, out spent newt gingrich tremendously with all of the negative ads, and when i say "negative ads," i don't mean nasty, but they were negative. he had everything. about half the votes in now, and you can see what happened there, susan. it's a four-person race, romney gets about almost half the vote with almost 50%. newt gingrich is closer to 30% with rick santorum and ron paul getting about 20% between them, so it's a kind of -- it's the kind of election results where there's not one thing. he really overrealmed the field. >> carl will be with us until the canal dates come out -- candidates come out, and romney and newt gingrich will be at his head quarters at 9 p.m. eastern time, and what can you expect,

carl, to hear from newt gingrich tonight? how will he take the double digit likely loss and present it to his followers 1234 >> susan, you know, we've seen variations of newt gingrich on the campaign trail, and he's been the calm who foresaw the rise, a competitive, the philosophical newt gingrich, and he sounded today really like he's not willing to concede to mitt romney no matter what the results of this were. over the weekend, we have two reporters there from real clear politics in florida this week, susan. aaron and scott, and aaron sent a note over the weekend that newt gingrich came back to the press table and touted a poll that showed him within three point, but that boom that didn't prove to be real, but today, newt gingrich was telling reporters he's going to fight all the way to the convention, in fact, and i don't know if this is false bravado, but

somebody said will you go all the way? he said, yes, you know, unless mitt romney drops out first. today, he didn't sound like a guy willing to look at these returns and think he has to quit. >> the phone lines are open for your participation in this. this is a night for republicans and so we are dividing our phone lines by the candidate you support. romney supporters 202-737-001. former speaker newt gingrich supporters, and the line for supporter former senator rick santorum, 202-628-0205, and the line for ron paul, 202-628-0184. we'll put the numbers on the screen so you can be involved here and send us comments on twitter@c-span or post on facebook.com/cspan. lots of ways to voice your

comment about what happened in florida tonight, the largest primary to date and strong victory for mitt romney. as we wait for calls from viewers coming in, let me does -- ask you about the tea party in particular and where they can find a candidate for the lead here in the state. according to the exit polls, two-thirds of the people voting today, not counting the early voters, told exit pollsters they were supportive of tea party ideals. where do they find a candidate among newt gingrich or mitt romney? >> well, you know, newt gingrich has actively courted the tea party followers, and if you think of the tea party as really a movement and not an organization, no republican is going to be able to win in november without their support, and the polls show they identify

as tea party people, mitt romney got a considerable amount of the support, not a majority or plurality, but a lot of it. the tea party movement, really, if you think of it as people want less government, lower tax, people who, you know, these are really presteps of the modern republican party, and i think as the campaign goes on, you won't see quite the di dichotomy betwn the tea party and so-called republican establishment because as a candidate emerges, and it looks tonight it's mitt romney, but as the candidate emerges, they'll realize they have more in common with each other than they did with the democrats. >> let's take another look at an interactive map from the "new york times," and you can see what the state counties look like in this it ration. the brown is newt gingrich. the tale color is mitt romney's, and the panhandle of the state was the part of the state in the central time zone polls quoted an hour later still waiting for

results from that part of the state. let's take calls. riverton, wyoming, bonnie who supports newt gingrich. go ahead, please. >> caller: oh, yes, i believe newt ought to stay in. i believe some of the people that have put the ballots in early, they had changed their mind, and i had talked to a few from down there that had changed their mind, but they had already sent their ballot in, so i think he is the best man for the job, and i believe that right now we have the unions controlling our world, and if we have romney, it'll be the mormon church, and i believe i just as soon have newt gingrich, thank you. >> carl, she talked about early ballots, and the secretary state of florida said there was 50,000 early ballots cast in the primary. how does that change die dynamin

a state this large? >> if newt gingrich was closing in the end, that would have hurt him. the polling we saw showed that mitt romney was winning the early vote 7% or 8%. seems to have won the state by more than that, so apparently newt gingrich was not closing, but that's -- but the problem with early voting is just what the caller suggests. it doesn't give the campaign a chance to go through its organic process, but in terms of -- you know, she wants newt gingrich to consider continuing, and he should continue. we now had four primaries if you count iowa, that's really a caucus, and three winners, we have to think, what, that 5% of the delegates are picked. this is not over. the problem for newt gingrich is the month of february is lined up well for mitt romney. >> the republican candidate needs 1144 to close the deal at the convention, and with a

winner take all in the state of florida, this is what the candidates' tallies look like. mitt romney at 87 in this winner take all, newt gingrich, 26, rick santorum, 14, and ron paul, 4. those numbers include the pledged super delegates as well as the winnings from the earlier primary states. let's take a look at the results again, please, for all candidates. mitt romney 47%, newt gingrich 31%, 16 point difference in the top two candidates in the elections with 53% reporting, and the second tier, we have results for ron paul and rick santorum combined at about 20%. atatlanta up next, this is john, supporting governor romney. john, you're on. >> caller: yes, basically, the

only comment i want to make, actually, is that when all of the candidates, including romney who won, seem to want to attack our sitting president, and i believe that it's going to be romney's achilles heel because we as americans, democrats or republicans, we want -- we do want to change, and we do want, you know, the economy to be booming, but the attacks that are being conveyed to our president, you know, in my opinion, i think that's wrong, and i think that if i were romney, i would be -- and he wants the presidency, i think he should concentrate on the issues at hand rather than him wanting to attack, you know, our

president. i don't think he has that much respect for the office to attack, you know, obama. if you can't respect the man, respect the office that he holds. >> thanks very much. as you've been listening to the candidates, how much are they, in fact, running against the incumbent president as opposed to currently attacking one another? >> well, you know, mitt romney has not personally attacked the president. this caller's just mistaken. he's actually been very respectful, not only of the office, but the president. he thinks he's a good family man and a good man, but just over his head. that's pretty mild for presidential campaigning. that thing -- this caller thinks that this thing is nasty, brace himself. it's going to get worse, but, you know, it's the nature of modern campaigning, but mitt romney has never showed an

animous for president obama, and i think that's good. even americans who don't think -- who want a change, they don't -- most of them don't hate the president. he's not -- he's had no scandals, nothing like that, so, i mean, the caller's larger point is right, but i think romney's pretty cognizant of it. >> the "washington post" has a dash board with interesting metrics. one is on the super packs. i want to point this out to the audience tab bylating outside money -- tabulating with outside money. super packs spend about $5 million opposing romney and $16 million opposing newt gingrich. the question for you in debate and argument about whether or not this strengthens the candidate going -- the nominee, going into the fall campaign or whether or not this negative stuff thrown at voters could be

an impediment? >> i don't see how it helps. they have taken the bark off of each other, but it made romney more seasoned and steely candidate, and maybe that's true, but if the republican elders are going to want to wrap the process up. they are attacking each other all day long, and if you're a voter, you know, in florida, even florida where romney's won handedly today, half the voters voted against him, and they listened to the negative ads. i think in some measure, the republicans are doing the democrats work for them. >> well, you suggested the republican elders wanted to wrap it up, and, in fact, we heard from a number of them week assailing newt gingrich's character, trying to close the deal for mitt romney, but as you said earlier, newt gingrich intends to carry on, so where does that leave the party? >> well, susan, what you'll see, i predict, starting tonight or tomorrow morning, is you won't

see as much people like bob dole arguing, you know, trying to buffalo newt gingrich out of the race. he has a right to run, but i think what they will tell him is you can run, you can carry the fight, but you have to ratchet down attacks. if romney's the nominee, quit attacking him personally. newt gingrich's response to that is well, maybe he should stop attacking me personally. newt doesn't have to listen to them. >> looking at the room, governor romney will be there shortly. a brief call next from thomas who supports ron paul and watching us from new york. >> caller: hi, yes, i think ron paul is a great character and really is faithful to the principles. i like the honesty in his way and speaking in debates and so forth. i like that he, i feel that he's

a constitutionalist, principles, as i said, and i'm surprised here the 47% going to romney and 31% to newt gingrich. >> i'm jumping in so carl cannon can respond. ron paul essentially chose not to compete in florida moving on to other states to pick up delegates. what do you see as his next steps and potential strategy? >> the next step is to compete in florida -- excuse me, nevada, which is saturday where he hopes to finish second to mitt romney. it's a caucus state, but ron paul never conveyed the sense he expects to be nominated. he expects to be treated with respect, and i think the other candidates have done that. he expects to have his views influence the republican party, and i think they've already done that. >> about to see mitt romney come on stage, and carl cannon, to close here, what thoughts do you want to leave the viewers with

tonight on this primary in florida? >> florida got what they wanted, set the table, and they fed it to mitt romney. we have four caucuses next week. we have a primary in missouri where newt gingrich is not on the ballot, and at the end of the month, talking february now, michigan goes, which is virtually a home away from home for romney, and arizona, where newt gingrich probably has to make his stand. there's one debate scheduled for february, i believe, and that's the venue that newt gingrich did the best in. florida set the table for mitt romney. >> if you have not found real clear politics, find them online where you find up to the minute reporting about campaign 2012. carl cannon, guest, washington editor of real clear politics. thank you for being with us tonight. >> any time, susan. >> now to the romney

headquarters to listen in for a few minutes until the candidate is at the microphone. after that, we'll have calls, and then newt gingrich's speech, and than wrap up with calls from around the country. [inaudible conversations] [cheers and applause] [inaudible conversations]

>> ladies and gentlemen, please welcome mrs. ann romney and the romney boys! [cheers and applause] >> come on up, kids. thank you, florida.

[cheers and applause] we are so grateful to you for being here tonight and how great all of you are. thank you, this is a very wonderful reception. [cheers and applause] you know, this experience of mitt running for president has been extraordinary for our family. it's just -- it's just hard to express what it means for a wife and a mother to see these kids like this, and on the stage, and i will tell you, though, mitt doesn't always take himself very seriously because we have the five boys along on the bus. [laughter] they keep us humble. only four of them are here tonight. ben is in residency. we're sorry he's not here. we have made friendships from here all across this country, but in here in florida, it's

been wonderful. [cheers and applause] there's so many people we need to thank. the list is long so i'll ask you to do something and not to clap until we've gone through the list, but i'm going to mention a few people that made such a difference, so please hold your applause until the end. commissioner adam putnam, our chairman, jeff atwater, let's see, pam, attorney general, and ambassador john rude, ambassador mel, you're not listening to me -- [laughter] senator connie mack, and senator mel martinez. [cheers and applause] oh, well, i give up. and the members of congress who endorsed mitt. connie mack, jeff miller, john micah, lincoln, mario --

[inaudible] andrew, tom roonny, sandy adams, senator john thrasher, speaker allen benz, will weatherford, and ted neil. our friends. celebrating in tallahassee, miami, jacksonville, and across florida, molly, brent, and anna, our great grass roots team throughout the state, and timely, thank you, all, thank you, all, so much. now -- [cheers and applause] now, let me introduce to you my husband, the father of my five sons, the grandfather of my 16 grandchildren, and the next president of the united states.

[cheers and applause] >> thank you, guys. [cheers and applause] wow. thank you. thank you. [chanting] >> thank you so much. thank you to the people in this room and for the people all over florida, thank you tonight for this great victory. [cheers and applause]

there are fewer candidates tonight than when the race began, but three gentleman are serious and able competitors, still in the race, and i want to congratulate them on another hard fought contest in the campaign. primary contests are not easy, and they are not supposed to be. as this unfolds, our opponents in the other party have been watching, and they like to comfort themselves with the thought that a competitive campaign leave us divided and week. we have news for them. a competitive primary does not divide us, but it prepares us, and we will win. [cheers and applause] and when we gather back here in tampa seven months from now for our convention, our -- [cheers and applause] ours will be a united party with

a winning ticket for america. [cheers and applause] you know, three years ago this week, a newly elected president obama faced the american people, and he said, look, if i can't turn the economy around in three year, i'll look at the one-term proposition, and we're here to collect. [cheers and applause] you know the results. i mean, it's been 35 months of unemployment above 8%, and under this president, more americans have lost their jobs and more home foreclosures occurred under this administration more than any other president in history. i met with a father who was terrified that this would be the last night his family would be able to sleep in the only home his son has known. i've met seniors who thought these would be the best years of their life, and now they are worried day-to-day about how to

make ends meet. i met hispanic entrepreneurs who thought they achieved the american dream, and now they are seeing it disappear. in the state of the union address, the president said these words, "let's remember now how we got here." don't worry, mr. president, we remember exactly how we got here. you won the election. [cheers and applause] leadership, leadership is about taking responsibility, not making excuses. another era of america crisis, thomas payne said, "lead, follow, or get out of the way." well, mr. president, you were elected to lead, you chose to follow, and now it's time for you to get out of the way. [cheers and applause]

i stand ready to lead this party and to lead our nation. as a man who spent his life outside washington, i know what it's like to start a business, i know how extraordinarily difficult it is to build something from nothing. i know how government kills jobs, and yes, i know how it helps from time to time. my leadership helped build businesses from scratch. my leadership helped save the olympics from scandal and give our american athletes the chance to make us all proud as they did. [cheers and applause] my leadership cut taxes 19 times and cashed over 800 vetoes. we balanced the budget every single year, and we kept our schools first in the nation. my leadership will end the obama era and begin a new era of american prosperity. [cheers and applause]

[chanting] this campaign is about more than replacing a president. it's about saving the soul of america. president obama and i have very different visions of america. president obama wants to grow government and continue to amass trillion dollar deficits. i will not just slow the growth of government. i will cut the spending of government. i will not just freeze government shares of the total economy, i will reduce it, and without raising taxes, i'll finally get america to a balanced budget. [cheers and applause]

president obama's view of a free economy is to send your money to his friends. my vision for a free enterprise economy is to return entrepreneurship, genius, and creativity to the american people. [cheers and applause] one of the most perm matters of our lives, our health care, president obama would turn decision making over to government bureaucrats. he forced through obamacare, and i will repeal it. [cheers and applause] you know, like his colleagues and the faculty lounge who think they know better -- [laughter] president obama demonizing and denigrates almost every sector of our economy. i will make america the most

attractive place in the world for entrepreneurs, innovators, and job creator, and unlike the other people running for president, i know how to do that because i've done it before. [cheers and applause] president obama orders religious organizations to violate their conscious. i will defend religious liberty and overturn regulations that trample on our first freedom. [cheers and applause] president obama believes our role as leader in the world is a thing of the past. he's intent on shrinking our military capacity at a time when the world is facing rising threats. i will insist on a military so

powerful no one would ever think of challenging us. [cheers and applause] president obama adopted a policy of apiecement and policy. i'll seek those out seeking freedom, and i'll stand shoulder to shoulder with our friends around the world. [cheers and applause] you see, president obama wants to fundamentally transform america and make it somethings perhaps we wouldn't recognize. i want to restore to america the values and principles that made us the hope of the earth, and i'll do it. [cheers and applause]

[chanting] our plans protect freedom and opportunity and our blueprint is the constitution of the united states. [cheers and applause] together, we'll build an america where hope is a new job with a paycheck, not a faded word on an old bumper sticker. [cheers and applause] the path i lay out is not one page with ever-increasing government checks and cradle to grave assurance that government will always be the solution. if this election is a bidding war for who can promise the most goodies and the most benefits, then i'm not your president. you have that president today. if you want to make this election about restoring american greatness, then i hope you'll join us. if you believe that disappointments of the last few years are a detour and not our destiny, then i'm asking for

your vote. [cheers and applause] i'm asking each of you to remember how special it is to be been american. i want you to remember what it was like to be hopeful and excited about the future and not to dread each new headline. i want you to remember when you spent more time dreams about where to send your kids to college than wondering how you'll make it to the next paycheck. remember when you were not afraid to look at your retirement savings or the price at the gas pump. remember when our white house reflected the best of who we are, not the worst of what europe's become. [cheers and applause] that america is still out there. we believe in that america. we still believe in the america that is the land of opportunity and a beacon of freedom.

we believe in the america that challenges each of us to be bigger and better than ourselves. this election, let's fight for the america we love. we believe in america. thank you so much. [cheers and applause] florida, you're the best. god bless the united states of america. thank you! [cheers and applause] thank you. [cheers and applause] [cheers and applause] >> thank you! [cheers and applause]

thank you, guys. we made such wonderful friends.. [cheers and applause] ♪ [cheers and applause]

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[inaudible conversations] >> newt gingrich is due to come up in about 12 minutes, and as we look at the scene in tampa with mitt romney, we'll switch focus to the atlantic coast, orlando, florida, and see what it looks like at the hotel room where newt gingrich has his headquarters. the candidates speaking on twit e and mitt romney, as he did in the speech you heard, strikes the same theme, not talking about the opponents, but

focusing on the fall with president obama. thank you, florida, while we celebrate, don't forget what the election is really about, defeating president obama, and newt gingrich on twitter also posted his comments which suggest that he is carrying on in the campaign, and he's what it looks like. he posted this comment.. on twitter which is "46 states to go focusing on the contest ahead and not yet giving up the fight." phone lines are open, and we welcome your comments by phone. you can also send us a tweet at c-span, or you can post on c-span facebook page. a lot of ways to get involved over the next 12 minutes or so as we wait for newt gingrich's comments 20 his supporters after coming in second, his lead is

eroded over the last contest in south carolina with a double digit win for midmitt, 47% to 2-- 32% with 75% reporting. rick santorum is in third place in florida, and ron paul at fourth place now with 7% of the votes cast in that state. rick santorum at 13%. let's listen to a comment from lynn, a newt gingrich supporter in seattle. you're on the air, lynn, go ahead, please. >> caller: yes, i thought mr. romney had a nice speech, but i have to say, if he is the republican nominee, the republicans can mark their calendars for another defeat in november just like in 2008 when mccain, 96 with dole, and 1976 with ford. conservatives don't want a moderate, and i hope the florida supporters are as happy then as they are now.

>> thanks for the call. a similar voice on the twitter page from a viewer who calls himself a conservative voice on twitter. he writes -- he or she writes it doesn't mean anything. the midwest decides the race. ohio, texas, and missouri are more important. what do you think about tonight's g.o.p. results in florida? alexander, virginia up next, romney supporter, you're on the air. >> caller: hey, thanks for taking my call. i'm listening to c-span all the time, and thank you for the awesome job you guys do. a quick comment. i noticed that in a couple previous calls as well as the internet, people have an issue with the fact that mitt romney is mormon and he'll come in as president to try to convert the world. i did research into mormonism, and i just don't understand where the ignorance is. did mitt romney do this as governor? that's the question, does he have a track record of doing that? i want to raise and why that's a

big issue for people. thank you. >> michael in virginia. next up, a daytona beach, florida caller, chuck on the line, supporter ron paul. what do you think what happened in your state today? >> caller: thank you, c-span, for providing the coverage you do. there's a lot of ron paul supporters excited to have him here and spread the message of liberty, but i don't believe the other stations have been fair to him. >> and how do you see a path forward for ron paul? what do you hope from him out of the election cycle? >> well, he's concentrating on the caucus, and i feel he'll win those more than having midmitt because like the last caller says, he'll do nothing but lose in a g.o.p. at the end in november. >> thanks for your call, chuck, from daytona beach, florida. cedar creek, nebraska up next,

and jim supporting senator rick santorum. >> caller: you bet you, i do. >> how about your candidate? third place in florida, a state with quite the conservative base and christian conservatives. >> caller: oh, i'd have to say considering how much the media has covered him, he did pretty darn good. all you ever hear about is the fight between newt gingrich and mitt romney like they are the heads of two people. of course, the other two won't do good, but here's the deal. romney's got a lot of pack money which few people understand that when citizens united did their case in front of the supreme court, afl-cio joined them in that. okay, so now romney's have all the money to pay back to bankers and pay back the super packs. newt gingrich, well, okay, he said he had conversions to

catholic with his wife and everything, wasn't his wife catholic when he was going with her? as far as rick santorum, everybody is afraid he's going to bring all this religious stuff to the white house. always remember everybody knows you cannot legislate morality, but you can legislate socialism. do we really want to put these kind of people in head of government or rick santorum who cannot legislate morality? it's up to the people. paul, i can be quick, he's got it so wrong. he wants to legalize -- let's say somebody's smoking pot, and they are driving down the freeway saying, oh, it's neat because it's slowing the teenage boys down from driving.

he's driving down the interstate, smoking on the weed, and the reason he can smoke the weed is because takes up a little bit of space, and the reason -- >> we'll jump in at this point, a supporter of rick santorum critical of ron paul's position at the end there critical on the position of the legalization of drugs. next is romney supporter. this is ellen. ellen is watching us in vennice, florida. you're on. >> caller: thanks for taking my call. it was tough for me like a lot of voters between newt gingrich and romney and rick santorum, and rick santorum, i sort of toyeded with the idea of possibly voting for hip, but, you know, we department know an awful lot about him because the debate is around the other two, and the people pointed out newt and romney bickering back and forth and saying the same kind of issues with each one over and

over again, and it was kind of annoying, i think, and that turned me off to the both of them for that, but i picked romney because i think that romney seemed to be a little bit more stable as to, you know, his opinions on things where newt seemed to sometimes almost, you know, want to tell you what you wanted to hear, kind of like obama does, you know? so that he can get your vote, and i know that newt's a strong conservative, and i think more than romney, but he's got a lot of issues, personal issues and past issues that, you know, one wonders how well he'd do as president, so i picked romney because of the strong family and everything. i think that's why i picked romney in the end. >> ellen, what issue is most important to you going into the 2012 election >>? >> caller: the most important is the economy. definitely, you know, i think obama leading us to the

socialist european kind of country is not for me at all, and i think that's why you see the tea party being so strong in this election, and in this state, but i think it's going to be, you know, a prom innocent in all the -- prominent in all the states really that people want america to be strong, and we don't see it as a socialist state. there's too many people in the world who fought and died for this country, and we're a strong and patriotic country, and with the obama administration, they are taking that away from us. >> thank you very much. that caller looking forward to a contest with president obama in the fall. to get to democrats' voice in here, we turn to veteran political operative joining us by phone. bob, was instrumental in governor romney's bid for the senate against ted kennedy in the 1994 election there, and we thought it would be interesting to hear his perspectives on the mitt romney of today versus back

then. let's start there. how different a candidate is governor romney today versus the man you helped organize the campaign against back then? bob, are you there? all right. we'll pick up with him in a few minutes. virginia is up next, a call from bobby s., are you there, bobby, go ahead, please. all right, i'll go back to the headquarters for newt gingrich in orlando, florida, and we'll catch up with our viewers' comments via phone lines for the various candidates, our twitter page, and you can comment to us by facebook. ♪ >> all right, let's try bob to see if we made the connection. bob, are you there?

>> caller: hi, sorry -- >> the governor romney you see today or the candidate romney you organized against in the senate race in the 1994 election. how different a candidate is he today? >> caller: totally different. he said he was to the left of kennedy on gay rights, was totally pro-choice, was an inexcellent who didn't support reagan-bush, voted for a democrat for president in 1992, and he's totally transformed himself. it's a little like i was listening to the previous caller said i'm worried about obama taking us towards a european socialist model, and romney says that all the time and puts money into the european banks. ..

or pave the way for your side really emphasizing them? >> what's happening in the primaries now will amplify those charges, and by the way, wealth is not a disqualify year. franklin roosevelt was wealthy, the kennedys were very wealthy, people fought to that if they cared about ordinary middle class working families. what's happened to romney, and this is by the way the

accommodation of rick perry and new gingrich have make him look like a poster boy for a fairness in america so i think we will hear more of this between now and november. as the mackall for all the numbers that came out today from the congressional budget office about their deficit projections, this year is shaping up how important is the deficit do you think going to be to most voters? >> if we have to ask walter mondale because if the economy starts improving, and i think the real sign that it is improving, the stock market clearly thinks it is, we've had the best january since 1979 and in that happens you are left are doing the deficit is too big. that is monreal's argument from 1984. voters just don't care about much. i think the pressure here is whether by november or september and october people feel we are moving in the right direction. if they do, i think obama is going to be very good shape.

>> even more so than last year social media being employed by the campaign, how important you think is going to be in making the case to voters? >> i think it is overwhelmingly important. so much now starts on media. you can't run it without social media constantly commenting on it. individuals can do their own comments on twitter. it's a powerful tool. i remember in 1984i used to go downstairs during the campaign and look at what people were saying as they set a precedent to the amount of money in the primary but what they were saying in terms of suggesting what he should do they have a lot of good ideas. but in those days was much less feedback. we would come light years ahead in the last these years and i think social media is going to be very powerful. >> democratic strategist, long time involved in this process as governor mitt romney looks

forward to the fall campaign and his comments focusing on barack obama and his challenge to him and to hear from shrum how the campaign might shake up. thanks for talking with us. >> we agreed to take a buckles and we hear that newt gingrich will be in front of supporters and two minutes and his headquarters in orlando, the scene is and will delaware and supports governor romney. you are on. hello, are you there? >> let's move to camp springs maryland. sean, you are on the air. >> hello, susan. i would like to thank you for your coverage tonight. i am tired of romney and i just listened to his speech. if he thinks he's going to bring the blue collar republicans backing to his corner i don't think it is going to happen. i will never vote for mitt romney. i would rather see obama destroy the country for the next four years and for the vote for

romney. alana tire of the elites like and culture and chris christie and the rest of them telling me who to vote for. i'm tired of holding on those and voting for somebody that i don't think is a conservative. john mccain didn't do it as soon as they when they are going to beat up on one leg they do every one else. >> let me jump in at that point because it is time for new gingrich to come forward to talk to the supporters after his second place finish in florida. colin who is a statewide supporter an organizer, former congressman is now talking to the crowd. let's listen. >> then he created gopac and we trained local candidates that came along to serve the local government seats and the state legislatures to get ready to become congressmen. and then i was in the house elected republican leadership with him. i was the vice chairman of the

republican commerce. one of the republican leaders during the presidency of push 41. and i remember coming and i can tell you for a fact i was on the campaign trail in 1994 when we took the house back. i didn't go quite as many as newt gingrich that almost as many, 90 congressional districts that here coming and i know for a fact that we would not have taken the majority of the u.s. house in 1994 if it were not for newt gingrich. [applause] we wouldn't have had the contract with america without him. we wouldn't have cut welfare reform or a balanced budget for four years in a row. we wouldn't be where we are today as a party without this man. and i can tell you what a pity if he is the type of guy who knows how to shake it up and that is what we need in washington right now. we need a conservative who's going to shake it up. [applause] he is the lesson to become messenger and the leader who believes in reducing the size of the federal government and "the wall street journal" said has the oldest tax plan.

the ronald reagan economic conservative he wants to lower your rate to 15% from give you that option and eliminate the tax on capital gains altogether that we and the ronald reagan era know we forget this economy moving again and he understands what president obama is doing right now to our national security and military forces cannot sustain itself because he understands the model of the peace for strength. last but not least i will tell you something else as the guy that took the obamacare will sit and filed a i'm proud it's going to the supreme court. i know he's the one candidate in the race that can to get to obama on the health care issue and we can get obamacare appealed under his leadership. [applause] so it is a pleasure tonight. whatever else you think the campaign is going on and on this is a fair campaign. the conservative base voted tonight. you look at the exit polls tomorrow and see that and the reason we are so passionate about new gingrich and why they will be so passionate about him

and there is a anno, and alabama and mississippi and michigan and minnesota and so on is because of the reason i know that new gingrich has the knowledge, the leadership skills and the fishing to be a great president of the united states and it is my pleasure tonight to give you the next president of the united states, newt gingrich. [applause] ♪

♪ >> thank you very, very much. i want to start by thanking the attorney general who has been a great statewide leader and has done so much to help us in has been tremendous the reels i want to thank the major who cochaired statewide and really helped us put this together with remarkably short time and so we are very grateful to all of you. i also want to introduce my daughter, cathy and her husband who live to the skin and i am proud of cathie because she did a whole series of spanish-language media over the last couple of weeks helping us in the miami area and reaching out across all of the hispanic

community. and my daughter, jackie and her husband, jimmy who are here. [applause] jackie has been doing speeches and television radio and as many of you know, she's and jimmy are the mother and father of my two major debate coaches. so it's great to have them here. i want to thank floridians. we talked about this and everybody here has been so positive in every part of the state we just thank all of you for the hospital the and the kindness. we thank the well over half a million floridians who voted for us and i think florida did something very important coming on top of south carolina. it is now clear that this will be a two-person race between the conservative leader, new gingrich and the massachusetts moderate.

[applause] the voters of florida really made that clear. now you will notice the number of votes are holding the baseline about 46 states to go. [cheering] we did this in part for the elite media because, you know, the same people who said i was dead in june and july and said i was gone after i look, we see them totally quiet the mind of the south carolina now they're asking what's he going to do, what's he going to do? i want to reassure them tonight we are going to contest every place and we are going to win and we will be in tampa as the nominee in august. [cheering] now, you might ask am the face

of this how can that be true? and i will give you the answer. it was stated at a historical moment in 1963 in dedicating our first national military cemetery by the president of the united states abraham lincoln who said we have government of the people , by the people, for the people coming and we are going to have people power defeat money power in the next six months. [cheering] and you say how are we going to do that? the same way that we came back in june and july and by december we are ahead in the gallup poll by tall for 13 points with no money. it turned out that if you have ideas and you have solutions and your positive and you can communicate a better future and you have a history of actually

doing something in the past that the combination begins to reach people. let me talk briefly about what this is going to be about. this is the most important election of your lifetime. [cheering] if barack obama gets reelected it will be a disaster for the united states of america. make no bones about it if he can have a record this bad, on employment in this bad, deficits this bad, policies this bad, gasoline prices this high and still get reelected, you can't imagine how pravachol he will be in his second term. so designing and putting together a people's campaign, not a republican campaign, not an establishment campaign, not a wall street funded campaign, a people's campaign and saying to america in every background and every ethnic group and every

community we have a better future for you and your family. it's the future of jobs and the future of lower gasoline prices. it's the future of a balanced budget and a smaller washington and more power back on to you and your families and your neighborhood. this is the future we ask you to join us in the imposing of the establishment in washington and imposing it on both parties. [applause] let's talk briefly about the power of ideas. i was very honored to be able to help with the other capital defense. at that point the senate and house candidates can together with governor reagan and david broder wrote about in the "washington post" it's a courageous decision by ronald reagan because he didn't have to run as part of a team. and he did something nobody had done before.

and we won of the six u.s. senate seats by the combined margin of 75,000 votes and picked up 33 house seats. in 1994 building on that experience we had three senator 50 candidates to come and be part of a contract with america to stand on the capitol steps. we offer a positive program and we had the largest one party increase in american history in an off-year, 9 million additional americans voted for a positive vision and we kept our word and every item in the contract was voted on in the first 93 days. [applause] there is a core question both in the primaries and the general election, a simple question to the if you are comfortable with the way america is decaying, then you don't have to change much. we can just manage the decay.

if you think that is a terrible thing to do to your children and grand children, it is a terrible thing to do in your country and if you are prepared to do what it takes to make sure that we change direction not just the presidency, but the congress, the bureaucracy, the judges, the policies so that the entire system gets on the right track so that america can give our children and grandchildren a more prosperous safe and better future this is how big the gap is to reach folks over here in both parties who are quite comfortable managing the decay. i am running the decision, our sun and will join us on the decision because we believe it is cheating our grandchildren to not insist on fundamental basic change in washington even if the establishment doesn't like it. [applause]

[cheering] in the next few days we are going to develop the equivalent of the contract from 1994 except this is going to be a personal one between the and you. because i'm asking you to make me president and therefore i have a personal, it's going to come in two parts. part one is conditional and requires your help. part to i can do if i win the election without having to condition it. part one, only works if you help me and we run 18 campaign which means by the way we have to replace bill nelson with a conservative. [applause] if you help us in addition to winning the presidency we elect a republican senate and republican house i will ask them on january 3rd to stay in office

and i will ask them to immediately pass the repeal of obamacare. [applause] i will ask them to immediately pass the repeal of the dodd-frank bill which is killing housing, killing a small-business and killing independent banks. [applause] and i will ask them to pass the repeal of sarbanes oxley which is crippling american businesses. there is no net profits. [applause] and my goal is to have all three bills sitting their waiting so the minute i am sworn than i can sign all three and we are off to a pretty good opening morning. [applause] those three premises or conditional.

we have to win by a big enough margin to manage it and increase our strength in the house. help me do that and i will do those three. let me tell you some things and we will put this together in a way you will be able to see in writing with my signature and hold me accountable. there are a series of executive orders like an issue that the congress can't stop as long as they are within the law. the very first executive order will abolish all of the white house tsars of that moment. [applause] we will issue immediately an executive order on the same day that all of this is going to happen about two hours after the inaugural address. no point in hanging out and having fun. before we get to go to the various ball that might we are going to have a work period. this is going to be working presidency. it may not get in as much as

obama but i will get in a lot more job creation. [applause] and i will tell you up front and not to compete with obama and because i'm not running for entertainer in chief, i'm running for president. [applause] and i would say to him now mr. president, you cannot send your way past a disaster in your presidency we will immediately i took down my teleprompter. i said to my staff earlier and having to win this because of a staff failure. [laughter] so, we are going to sign on that day the authorization for the immediate deployment of the keystone pipeline as of that day. [applause]

my message to the people of canada is don't cut a deal with the chinese come help is on the way by january you were going to build the right pipeline to the right place. [applause] to i will give you a couple more we will put together a package. you are going to see this is what a serious conservative president is like who is bold and is prepared to change washington despite the screams of the establishment of both parties. so a couple more steps. you will on that day sign an executive order that will instruct the state department that day to open the embassy in jerusalem and recognize israel. [applause] [chanting "newt"]

i will give two more examples given italy will sign reinstating ronald reagan mexico city policy no u.s. money will go anywhere in the world to pay for abortion, period. [cheering] and finally, many of you may have noticed that the obama administration has declared war on the catholic church and other religious institutions to the i want you to know that on the very first day, i will sign an executive order repealing every antireligious act in the obama administration as of that moment [applause] the reason i'm comfortable telling you all of this is i have been studying what america needs to do since the fall of

1958 when my dad was stationed in europe in the army. i have been working on what we need to do. as the congressman and speaker of the house and the private sector, i believe it is possible to get this country back on track. my commitment is to unleash the spirit of the american people to find new and innovative and positive things to do them seven days a week to do them relentlessly to do them without stop and make sure we've fundamentally dhaka and america back on the right track, and i pledge to each and every one of you personally if he will reach out across the country if you will use facebook and youtube and trotter and phone calls and even visits tell friends in the other 46 states there's a chance to nominate a conservative who knows what he's doing who knows he has done that before and has the courage and determination to get it done. i promise you.

my life, fortune and my secret honor this is about america. thank you, good luck and god bless you. [applause] ♪

in orlando florida after his second place showing in a florida gop primary. and it was a solid win for the governor of the 14-point between mitt romney at 47% of most of those counted now 92% reporting and new gingrich trailing at 32%. about ten more and it's in our program tonight. we are going to take telephone calls to review telephones set up for the candidates and the gop primary process. you can also send us a tweet or post comments on facebook and we will mix the was and as well. one of our viewers on twitter about the signs use all at the rally 46 states to go. our reviewer says 46 states to go only he was too disorganized

to get on the ballot so it's really 44. and in fact new gingrich is not on the primary ballot in misery and in the state of virginia. and also on the twitter, connie mack since this note to the coverage elisions to governor mitt romney and its florida team. they run an exceptional campaign and now it is time to unseat the liberal bill nelson. let's go to the calls. this is a ron paul supporter in riverside california. you are on the air. >> caller: hello, susan and everyone out there. the fact that he is for the pipeline partly by the coke brothers shows he really doesn't give a hoot about the environment because we are on the verge of going over the limit on our environment as it is, and ron paul he is seeking diplomatic captives as far as dealing with iran instead of going in and starting something, and i think that his backers

should hang in there because i don't understand why the evangelical is for him because peace and brotherly love and to an occasion where as the other ones aren't, mitt romney, his number one to cover a company that had people dying of asbestos and she got george bush to make the law we took the claims 20 cents on the dollar, so i really don't think any of them -- the best one for me is ron paul. thank you very much. >> host: thank you for calling. debbie wasserman schultz the congresswoman is the chair of the democratic national committee and she's put a statement out about the results in her home state. she writes mitt romney's victory comes as no surprise, his opponent is by running $13,000 -- excuse me, 13,000 adds. to the new gingrich 200. bombing the airwaves with the ads and the campaign spent more

on the negative ads than john mccain did during his entire presidential run be made in the wasserman schultz saying he was successful lobbying his way to victory but passing every contest it becomes weaker with the general elections claims and independent voters should he make it that far. that is because he's made it clear he will say anything to take any position on any given day and before any given audience and will distort any fact that his or her opponent's record to win. that is the former congresswoman and the chair of the democratic national committee. mitt romney shilling for a 47% and new gingrich, 32 and trailing far behind, rick santorum and ron paul and it's on to the nevada caucuses. we will be learning more about them and the candidate strategies might be and that state for the saturday context. next is a call from st. louis. this is donna who supports governor mitt romney. go ahead.

>> i have to point. first of all, a couple of these things that happened when he was speaker now has passed and the laws that govern the banks since the great depression were taken off the books and the result was the 2008 meltdown. second, of all of the republicans running, mitt romney is the only one who's actually done anything for the working middle class that's providing an affordable health care plan for massachusetts and with that a successful middle class the whole system falls apart like a house of cards because you need a middle class. it's pay-as-you-go for the social security and a long list of everything in this country. if you don't have a successful middle class it all falls apart. he's the only one that has done one thing for the middle class. thank you. >> thank you. next up is rall bin who is also a supporter of governor mitt romney in tampa florida.

how busy were the polls today? did you vote today or vote early? >> i chose to vote today. >> host: what was the polling place like? >> caller: okay kuhl well, i chose to vote today and i found it very interesting that speaker newt gingrich had already had the sign read acknowledging defeat. 47 states to go. i also appreciated the twitter post that i saw. it's really 44 states to go. i think it is time to coalesce around who the obvious winner is going to be. governor romney has already won more popular votes the other candidate since florida. i've been a supporter of governor romney since 2008, and i made a member of the county executive committee at the republican party. governor mitt romney with his

business and understanding of what it takes to grow business in the united states understands that the government is not the solution. the private sector is the solution. it's the job of the government to just create the plating field and then get out of the way. a lot of respect goes to new gingrich. he's a lot of important things tonight and i think that we need to pay attention to what him and rick santorum have to say, the very quality people. people that we want to keep in the party, but it's really time for them to take a look at what the governor did in 2008. he saw where he was out and he could have ryan for the end, divided the party and created to make the eventual obama steamroller if he will effect instead of a good possibility.

unless you want to have the same type of outcome -- >> host: at that point thanks for your comment from tampa florida and jennifer is up next also a supporter of governor romney calling from mazar arizona. you are on the air. >> caller: thank you, florida. we will keep it going here in february. i want to say i agree with the person that sent in that letter about how gingrich wasn't even on the ballot in its own state. if he can organize to get on balance how can he organized run our country. i have another thing to say. when bald was on he talked about how he makes this money. you know, susan, there was never anything said, and john kerry ran in 2004 he paid 14.1 income tax. he had the yacht he is not over

and put in a different cities we wouldn't have to pay $880,000 of tax. they never ask about that. i don't remember them asking about his homes or john at words and all of their money into their homes. isn't it funny how everybody goes after mitt romney? it took mitt romney 25 years to make that money. i mean i think some of these football players and basketball players, actresses and actors, they make that, too but isn't it amazing that shrum is pushing that? it's time for the republicans to shove it back down their throat. why didn't the media, susan come could talk about john kerry paying 13.1 of income tax? that's all he paid. and i think -- i think new gingrich you just wait it's not over yet. wait until the first wives club gets involved. they are not going to let her be the first lady. we would never have that in our life and we don't want that stain on the republican party.

>> host: we are going to stop there, jennifer from massa arizona and the last word for the viewer calls tonight. let's take a look at the delicate count and how it stands for the delegate primary contest in florida but romney now with 87, new gingrich at 26, rick santorum, 15, ron paul, for coming and as you can see 1144 needed to secure the gop nomination at the convention this summer. there are a list of upcoming primaries and caucuses which include nevada which is saturday and 28 delegates of the state is proportional. arizona allegis had a caller from there. it's 29. super tuesday will be 447 delegates and texas, 155 california come 72 so there are big contests, and weeks ahead the delegate count continues and

the planet is to secure that space as the nominee let's look specifically at some of the issues coming up in the caucuses in nevada on the line with us this janet demon who is a political reporter for the loss biggest times. well, give us a sense of what it's been like on the ground right now. we know two of the candidates in florida's contest chose to be in a bad night, ron paul and rick santorum. what are the gop voters hearing from the candidates at this point in time just a few days of? >> this is about the first time that the voters have had a chance to hear from the candidates directly nevada hasn't gotten a lot of attention for the campaign ahead of us and stole our covet in the nation's context. now that florida is over we are going to see an onslaught of the candidates. rick santorum and ron paul aron loss vegas.

newt gingrich will arrive at northern nevada in reno in the middle of the night and have some events appear. mitt romney has already scheduled wednesday as well. so, you know, nevada voters we see a lot of the same issues we saw in florida. the housing crisis here on top of the nation and the foreclosures and the unemployment rate is the highest in the nation. talking about jobs, the economy and what to do on the nation's radioactive waste. so i think the nevada voters furze is the context for eager to hear what the candidates have to say on those issues. >> host: along with being one of the to list the the two hardest hit state of housing meltdown in 2008, nevada has been the place where the tea party has been very prominent. how does -- how strong is the tea party going into the caucuses this weekend? >> i spent some time today reporting that issue and the tea party has been so lost.

any kind of organizer concerted influence on the process i think as we see across the nation and other states they are split to rethink mitt romney spent a lot of time organizing nevada. he won four years ago and ron paul was the only other candidate to really compete. and so they are in this boat i think of looking for the alternative, the conservative alternative they would say to mitt romney so they are split between new gingrich who they don't have a lot of national affinity with pity he represents the stubble and and and some of the more moderate or liberal positions to credit the tea party activists and with rick santorum who has had trouble getting some traction here, they did 80 party that's kind of split as has never been a very cohesive or well organized group. they didn't turn out in very strong numbers to protest government spending in 2009 and

are a very visible demonstration of the event demonstrated very much power the polls. >> as we close out here can you explain briefly to the viewing audience how the caucuses work in your state, who can vote and when do they happen? and how popular are they, how many people expect to participate? >> it's been a struggle for the party right here because the county cut its county republican party is responsible for conducting the caucasus most of the will start between eight in the morning and then. the chairwoman at this point expected about 70,000 but she dialed back down to about 40,000. we expect to see the results for most of the states to win about 5 p.m. pacific time. the link on that is that clark county the largest county in nevada is holding a separate evening caucus so that those who

observed orthodox jews on this religious observance can participate in the caucus and in the evening caucus, so we will see if the result from the state's largest county until well after 5 p.m. pacific time. >> the last time mitt romney cony to be here ron paul is brokering for a second place finish and the nevado caucus helped john and his organization there. >> he spent a lot of time making sure his volunteers are engaged. we saw the very devoted following and she and mitt romney organized the seat, new gingrich was hoping to ride the wave of momentum that carried them out of south carolina, florida showing has been doubly dissipated that moment. he's already proven to have a bit of a disorganized presence in nevada with some events scheduled he was supposed to meet with the governor. that meeting was cancelled. so i think ron paul is in a very strong position to give mitt

romney the room for his money. i don't know that i would predict that ron paul will come out on top but he should have a pretty strong second place showing. islamic politics for the less vigorous son in the the biggest city with the caucuses next up in the gop coming up this saturday. thank you for giving us a background for the viewers across the country. >> thank you. islamic as we close out the coverage tonight, let's take one last look at the results and the floor of the gop contest mitt romney of 47%, new gingrich coming in at 32%. then the next two candidates in line, rick santorum 13% and from paul finishing fourth with 7%. tomorrow morning we will continue the conversation about the campaign and the guests include congressman tim ryan, south carolina senator jim demint, the tea party will be with us tomorrow morning as well as the indian rhodes it starts at 7 a.m. eastern time

washington journal here on c-span. thanks so much for being with us on primary night. >> we are making a stand selling stuff and moving it around, and ups drivers are dropping things off everywhere. [applause] that is the economy i want to redefine president of the united states i will stop all of the regulations. i will make sure that any of those that killed jobs will be eliminated and i get america back to work again. [applause] >> if you will see the economy start to recover. the minute people realize that obama is gone -- [applause] that's how decisive the changes going to be and how rapid the changes going to be. >> all the candidates as they meet with voters.

>> [inaudible conversations] >> and use the web site to view recent video from the campaign trail and read the latest postings from the candidates, political reporters and other viewers from the social media sites at c-span.org/campaign 2012. estimate u.s. intelligence officials testified today about the terrorist group al qaeda is in decline globally the heads of u.s. intelligence agencies testified earlier before a senate panel about u.s. security threats. topics include al qaeda, cybersecurity, and iran's nuclear program. we will hear from the director

of national intelligence, james clapper, the head of the cia, david petraeus, and fbi director robert mueller. the senate select committee of intelligence is chaired by the california senator dianne feinstein. this is two and a half hours. >> the senate select committee on intelligence meets today in an open session for the annual worldwide for hearings. this hearing provides the intelligence community with an opportunity to present to the nation its views of the threats and challenges we face. and for the committee to ask questions of our intelligence leaders and public. today is also an opportunity to take stock of what has happened in the last year and what we can expect for 2012. before looking ahead i want to congratulate the leaders of the

intelligence community before us today and the tens of thousands of civilians and military intelligence professionals they represent. through their efforts, 2011 was the year of numerous major intelligence successes including first and foremost, the obligation that located and killed osama bin laden. this past year also saw the removal of the top terrorist leaders, plots and recruiters including amar al-awlaki in yemen, al qaeda's linchpin in pakistan, and numerous others resulting in the disruption of the pacific terrorist plots and casting into the survey al qaeda's senior leadership. closer to home, since our hearing last year there were at least 20 individuals addressed

in the united states on terrorism related charges in 17 different investigations, which stopped them from carrying out or assisting attacks on the homeland. in the interest of time, i will put a list that describes each of these arrests in the record. arrests like these are the product of coordination between the fbi, the agency, the department, and a security and status and local law enforcement units throughout the country. also, in 2011, the drug enforcement administration, the dea, the federal bureau of investigation, the fbi and the central intelligence agency, the cia and others combined to identify and work and the rating and the plot to kill the saudi ambassador to the united states.

a plot so unusual and amateur that many initially doubted that the iran most responsible. well, let me state for the record i have no such doubt. finally, the intelligence community supported countless united states national security and foreign policy actions including the war in afghanistan, the drawdown in iraq, the nato mission in libya that removed the dictator, the implementation of sanctions on iran over its nuclear program, the interdictions of weapons of mass destruction shipments and many others. despite the success, the threats to the nation remains serious, and in many ways more difficult to understand and even address than in the years passed. the intelligence community statement for the record, which is posted on the committee website and will be summarized

by director clapper describes these threats at length. let me address just a few points. terrorism to read we are all familiar with the continuing threats posed by al qaeda affiliate's in yemen and somalia. aqap and al-shabaab as well as that from al qaeda and iraq, aqi and all three of which inspired to conduct attacks outside of their borders. i want to mention with special emphasis the threat posed by the al qaeda affiliate in north africa which calls itself al qaeda in the land of the islamic monrad, or aqim. for the past few years, aqim has been and after threat when discussing the terrorist threat. this may be about to change. recent public records played out that aqim of which is traditionally operated in the parts of algeria and moly is

well positioned to exploit instability and pockets of extremism in libya and nigeria and to create new safe havens. the report also raised concerns about the tens of millions of dollars aqim has received from ransom payments for hostages and other illicit activities. i believe the intelligence community needs to move now to be prepared to address this possible growing threat. then there is iran and north korea. while the overall terrorist threat may be down, the threat from the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction from iran and north korea is growing. on january 9, iran announced that it started enriching uranium at its plan near the city. according to the reports, iran is enriching uranium to 20 per

cent both. iaea inspectors arrived in iran over the weekend, and i believe they must and should have complete access to all nuclear facilities. and i ask that the mix of findings public on a regular basis so the world will clearly understand what is happening there. according to most time lines i've heard, 2012 will be a critical year for convincing were preventing iran's development of a nuclear weapon. in north korea there is now a 28-year-old dictator ruling over the country's cache of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles which should concern us deeply. recently this committee received an update from the intelligence community on the threat north korea poses and was quite sobering. i won't go into any details

because they are classified. but i strongly believe this will need to be an area where the intelligence community continues to focus its resources and attention. i think we all know the threat from cyber and the need to pass some of legislation in this regard. and we know that the intrusions could be enormous. take down the dam, take on our electric grid, and the united states companies have cost untold billions of dollars annually. china and russia have been named as aggressive and persistent cyber seats. in afghanistan the surge of the forces has begun and produce meaningful games. that said i think we are all very concerned about what will happen in 2014 when we reduce our trip commitment and

president karzai's term is up. frankly i don't see a viable strategy for continuing level of security and stability that we are building after 2014. and i'm also concerned by what appears to be a disparity between the discussion in afghanistan in director clipper's statement for the record and the description in the december 2011. the director statements most to the connotes modest improvements in the challenges that remain. i am unable to describe this as it remains a classified document news reports of the nie described it as a sobering and dysart and include phrases like my year and still meet. so i would like to ask the witnesses how they assessed how

stable a afghanistan will be in 2012 as well as 2014 and beyond. i also want to note that last week i met with the afghan minister of counternarcotics, and i was very impressed. i believe he is making good progress in afghanistan and we should be positioned to become supportive of his efforts to replicate the food is known in other provinces to help farmers grow alternative crops instead of the heroin poppy. of course pakistan remains a huge problem, and i would very much appreciate your views on pakistan's willingness to be a partner in our efforts against

terrorists and in afghanistan as well as whether the civilian government can survive in light of other political controversies. there are a couple of things i want to add, and i'm not sure that this is a good place, but i'm going to do it any way. in this morning's edition of "the los angeles times," there was an article asserting that the cia director david petraeus has been inaccessible and guarded in his interactions with congress and with the intelligence committee in particular since being sworn in that last september. as far as i am concerned, nothing could be further from the truth and i believe the ranking member, the vice chairman, would agree. i spoke to the reporter last friday and made it very clear to him this has not been my experience or to the best of my knowledge the members of this committee. if it had then i would have heard. the director petraeus has

appeared before us every month since becoming director and the vice-chairman and i have had several phone calls and other meetings with him. he has upheld his obligation to keep the committee fully and currently informed and all eight regret some people felt the need to engage in anonymous complaints. i also like to say that once again this committee has been put in a difficult position of trying to avoid any mention of classified matters when various parts of the executive branch may be doing some of the offset. i ask members to be careful in their questions and statements and to remember that public discussion of some intelligence programs and assets can lead to them being compromised. on the particular issue of the drone strikes i will only say i was cleared to say in our joint hearing before the house

intelligence committee last september and there is no issue that receives more attention and oversight from this committee than the united states counterterrorism efforts going on along the afghanistan pakistan border. these efforts are extremely precise and carefully executed and are the most effective tools we have. noncombatant casualties are kept to an absolute minimum. so now, if i may, mr. vice chairman, i want you to know it's been a great pleasure to work with you and i also want the public to know that together your site and our side have been able to pass three intelligence authorization bills by unanimous consent in both houses, and it's just been a great pleasure for me to work with you and if you have some comments if you make them now and then i will introduce the speakers.

>> very good. thanks, madame chair and let me echo the same sentiment you with respect to our working relationship. it's been pretty seamless both at the personal level at the top as well as with our staff, and i think you for the way that you have integrated me into the vice chairmanship over the past year and i look forward to continuing to work in a very closely with you and also i like your california wine by the week. [laughter] and i join the chairwoman in a welcoming our guest today and this is certainly the brain trust of the intelligence community. and there's an awful lot of experience here. there is also an awful lot of talent at the table but i will comment more on the brave men and women that work for you. the great job that they've done, the committee holds most all of our meetings in closed sessions of this annual for here is one of the on the opportunities we have to discuss in public the

threats that face our nation. it's also one of the few opportunities to get to extend our public thanks to the men and women of the intelligence community. those are the hard work of the folks that work for each of you, 2011 was a great year for the intelligence community. the year when we finally saw the realization of a decade of work to ensure that osama bin laden and anwar al-awlaki will never again threaten this nation. i'm glad to say that we will no longer have an annual threat hearing where someone asks the question where is osama bin laden. laskier's successes were no small achievement. that resulted from transformation and improvement in every oic agency. in particular, i am impressed by the work being done by the cia counterterrorism operators and analysts working together to take down terrorists and their network. we have heard from these officers and countless briefings

core al qaeda is essentially on the ropes as long as we continue to sustain pressure on the group. the director clapper, this same sentiment is expressed in your written statement for the record for the hearing. i know i am not alone on this panel, and believing that we must continue whatever level of pressure it takes to degrade the core al qaeda once and for all. as we are seeing in my back the gains that took a decade to achieve can erode quickly if we do not do what it takes to protect them. i also hope that we are learning from other lessons from iraq. i was dismayed by the administration's decision to hand over the custody of hezbollah operatives to iraq last year. it's too late now to prevent what i believed would result in the ultimate release of a terrorist who killed five american soldiers in iraq, but it is not too late to make sure that the same thing does not happen with 100 tataris still in

detention in afghanistan. i hope our witnesses to discuss the rangers likely threats posed by these detainees and the role of the community and providing intelligence and support of planning for any handover of the facilities to afghans. and i understand that this is going to be a challenge because the administration still lacks a long-term detention policy. but we just cannot keep letting the lead to dangerous detainee's go free. this brings me to my last point. press reports as outlined the administration's's plans to treat prisoners detained at guantanamo bay to the taliban as a confidence-building measure. appears from these reports that in exchange for transferring detainee's have been determined to be too dangerous to transfer by the administration's guantanamo taskforce we get little to nothing in return.

apparently the taliban will have to stop fighting our troops and won't even have to stop bombing of them with the ied. i've also heard nothing that suggests that the assessments on the threat posed by these detainees have changed. i want to state publicly as strongly as i can that we should not transfer fees detainee's from guantanamo. moreover, i believe the community should declassify the intelligence assessment of these detainees so that we can have a full and open debate without the wisdom of this transfer before it takes place. let me conclude with two other comments. first of all with respect to the l.a. times article, madam chair, i did not see that this morning, but i want to again state in an unequivocal fashion that director petraeus has done an outstanding job and in service to our country in many

capacities as his service in the military would indicate, and during the time he's been in the director of the cia you are right to the he has stayed in constant communication with of the two of us and i know with our colleagues on the house side and has been readily available to come to the committee on both a formal and informal basis as well as being available on any time for us to have a conversation with and then surprised that there would be any question about that. and as we all know we have the utmost confidence in his leadership along with the leadership of the entire community, and there has been again a seamless transition from the director to the director petraeus and we are very confident of his leadership. ..

director mueller, you and i had extensive conversations since you've been here longer than any of the rest of the members here about that issue and i just want to say that over the past decade, the stovepipes that we alluded to in that report have continued to fall and i

would have to say that today without question while we still have improvements to be made that the sharing of information between all of our agencies is at a superior level and, mr. olsen, i had the privilege of as you know visiting with your folks at ntc. it recently. it was impressive to see an improvement from the technology standpoint but just to see every member of the intelligence community sitting around a table virtually and discussing in realtime the issues that face the community from a ct standpoint is very impressive and i commend all of you for the great work you've done. it's not been easy and sometimes it's, i know very difficult to put aside some of the previous

relationships that might have existed but boy, have y'all ever done a good job breaking down those firewalls and really engaging with every member of the intelligence community to insure that we disrupt and interrupt terrorist activity around the world directed at america and americans as well as other countries and allies around the world. so i commend you from that respect. i thank you for being here today and i look forward to your testimony. thank you, madam chair. >> thank you very much, mr. vice chairman. now i'd like to introduce the distinguished panel before us. they are the director of national intelligence, james clapper, who will deliver an opening statement on behalf of the entire intelligence community. director of the central intelligence agency, david petraeus. the director of the defense intelligence agency, general robert burgess. director of the federal bureau of investigation, bob mueller.

director of the national counterterrorism center, matthew olsen. assistant secretary of state for intelligence and research philip goldberg. and undersecretary for tell defense intelligence and analysis at the department of homeland security, caryn wagner. thank you all very much for being here. we will now take your statement, director chambliss and then go into a period of questions. what did i say? >> chambliss. >> director clapper excuse me. and we will then go into 10 minute rounds based on the early bird rule. director clapper, welcome. >> well i take that as a complyment so, thank you. >> good. >> thank you chairman feinstein, vice chairman chambliss and distinguished members of the committee for inviting us to present the 2012 worldwide threat assessment. these remarks and our statement for the record reflect the collective insights of extraordinary

men and women of the united states intelligence community whom it is our privilege and who are to lead -- honor to lead. on their behalf i would thank you both for your acknowledgement and recognition that the great work these men and women do all over the world day in and day out. many cases at some hazard. i won't attempt to cover the full scope of worldwide threats in these brief oral remarks so i'd like to highlight just some of the issues we identified for the coming year. never has there been in my almost 49 year career in intelligence more complex and interdependent a ray of challenges than we face today. capabilities, technologies, know how, communications, and environmental forces aren't confined by borders and can trigger transnational disruptions with was astonishing speed as we have seen. never before has the intelligence community been called upon to master such complexity on some issues in

such a resource-constrained environment. we're rising to the challenge by continuing to integrate the intelligence community as you both alluded. taking advantage of new technologies, implementing new efficiencies and as always, simply working hard. but candidly maintaining the world's premier intelligence enterprise in the face of shrinking budgets will be difficult. we'll be accepting and managing risk more so than we've had to do in the last decade. we begin our threat assessment as we did last year with the global issues of terrorism and proliferation. intelligence community sees the next two or three years as a critical transition phase for the terrorist threat, particularly for al qaeda and like-minded groups. with osama bin laden's death the global jihadist movement lost its most iconic and inspirational leader. the new al qaeda commander is less charismatic and depth or capture of prominent al qaeda figures has shrunk the group's top

leadership layer. however even with its degraded capabilities and focus on smaller, simpler plots, al qaeda remain as threat. as long as we sustain the pressure on it, we judge that core al qaeda will be a largely symbolic importance to the global jihadist movement but regional affiliates as the ones you mentioned, and to a lesser extent small cells and individuals will drive the global jihad agenda. proliferation, that is, efforts to develop, acquire, or spread weapons of mass destruction is also a major, major global strategic threat. among nation states iran's tactical advances particularly in uranium enrichment strengthen our assessment that iran is well capable of producing enough highly-enriched uranium for a weapon if its political leaders, specifically the supreme leader himself choose to do so. north korea's export of ballistic missiles and associated materials to

several countries including iran and syria illustrate the reach of the north's proliferation activities. we don't expect kim junk un, north korea's new junk leader to change pyongyang's policy of exporting most of its weapons systems. i would note in this statement for the record we elevated our discussion of cyber threats to follow terrorism and proliferation. the cyberthreat is one of the most challenging once we face as you alluded. we perceive a cyber environment where emerging technologies are implemented before security responses can be put in place. among state actors we're particularly concerned about entities within china and russia conducting intrusions into u.s. computer networks and stealing u.s. data. and the growing world of nonstate actors are playing in cyberspace is a great example of the easy access to potentially disruptive and even lethal technology and know how by such groups.

two of our greatest strategic cyber challenges are first, definitive real time attribution of cyber attacks. knowing who carried out such attacks and where the perpetrators are located? second, managing the enormous developer inabilities in the it c supply chain for u.s. networks. briefly looking fee graphically around the world and in afghanistan during the last year the taliban lost some ground but that was mainly in places where the international security assistance forces or isaf are concentrated. in taliban senior leaders continue to enjoy safe haven in pakistan. isaf's efforts to partner with afghan national security forces are encouraging but corruption and governance challenges continue to threaten the afghan forces operational effectiveness. most provinces have established basic governance structures but they struggle to provide essential services. the isaf and the support of afghanistan's neighbors, notably and particularly

pakistan, will remain essential to sustain the gains that have been achieved. and although there is broad international political support for the afghan government there are doubts in many capitals particularly in europe how to fund afghanistan initiatives at 2014. in iraq violence and sporadic high-profile attacks continue. prime minister maliki recent aggressive moves against sunni political leaders have heightened political tensions but for now the sunnis continue to view the political process as the best venue to pursue change. elsewhere across the mid-east and north africa those pushing for change are confronting ruling elites. sectarian, ethnic and tribal divisions, lack of experience with democracy, stalled economic development, military and security force resistance, and regional power initiatives. these are fluid political environments that offer openings for extremists to participate much more

suitably in political life. states where authoritarian leaders have been toppled like tunisia, egypt and libya have to reconstruct their political systems through complex negotiations among competing factions. in syria regime intransigence and social divisions are prolonging internal struggles and could potentially turn domestic up heave develops into regional crises. in yemen all the though the political transition is underway the security situation continues to be marred by violence and fragmentation in the country is a real possibility. as the ancient roman historian once observed, the best day after a bad emperor is the first. after that i would add things get very problematic. the intelligence community is also paying close attention to the developments across the african continent throughout the western hemisphere, europe and across asia. too few issues are

self-contained. virtually every region has a bearing on our key concerns of terrorism, proliferation, cybersecurity and instability. and throughout the global wherever there are environmental stresses on water, food and natural resources as well as health threats economic crises and organized crime, we see ripple effect the around the world and impacts on u.s. interests. amidst these extraordinary challenges it is important to remind this distinguished body and the american people that all of our work the u.s. intelligence community strives to exemplify american values. we carry out our missions with respect for the rule of law and protection of civil liberties and private privacy. that pledge leads me to crucial recommendation on our highest legislative priority this year and requires the support of this committee and both houses of congress. the foreign intelligence surveillance act amendments act or faa, is set to expire at the end of this year. title 7 of fisa allows the

intelligence community to collect vital information about international terrorists and other important targets overseas. the law authorizes surveillance of non-u.s. persons located overseas who are foreign intelligence importance, meaning they have a connection to or information about threats such as terrorism or proliferation. it also provide for comprehensive oversight by all three branches of government to protect the privacy and civil liberties of u.s. persons. department of justice and my office conduct extensive oversight reviews of these activities and we report to congress on implementation and compliance twice a year. intelligence collection under fisa produces crucial intelligence that is vital to protect the nation against international terrorism and other threats. we're always considering whether there are changes that could be made to improve the law but our first priority is reauthorization of these authorities in their current form. we look forward to working with you to insure the speedy enactment of

legislation reauthorizing the fisa amendments act so there is no interrupgs in our ability to use these authorities to protect the american people. so i will end this brief statement where i began. the fiscal environment we face as a nation and in our intelligence community will require careful identification and management of the challenges of the ic focuses on and the risk that we must mutually assume. with that i thank you and the members of this committee for your dedication to the security of our nation, your support for our men and women of the intelligence community and for your attention today. as my colleagues and i look forward to your questions and our discussion. thank you. >> thank you very much, director clapper. we will begin with 10 minutes and early bird rule. as i mentioned in my opening statement i think 2012 is going to be a critical year for convincing or preventing iran from developing a nuclear weapon. in sunday's "new york times"

magazine israeli journalists ronan bergman wrote, i quote, after speaking with many senior israeli leaders and chiefs of the military and the intelligence, i have come to believe that israel will indeed strike iran in 2012. how, end quote. how do you assess that likelihood and the response from iran if that happens, that might be forthcoming? >> well, the, our hope is that the sanctions, particularly those which have been recently implemented, would have the effect of inducing a change in the iranian policy towards their apparent pursuit of a nuclear capability. obviously this is a very sensitive issue right now.

we're doing a lot with the israelis, working together with them. and of course for them this is, as they have characterized it, an existential threat but this is an area that we're very, very concerned about and would be pleased to, because of the sensitivities, would be pleased to discuss in greater detail in closed session. >> well the vice chairman and i have just met this past week with the director of mossad. so it is a classified meeting but we do know that. i, i think, and let me ask this of you, director petraeus. i think the world has to know what's happening. it is one of the reasons i believe that the iaea when they go in, well they're in pakistan now but when they go into fordau must make

transparent and public what they find there, what they see there. so that we know for sure what is happening. i think the world is entitled to that, particularly where you have a situation where one country views this as an existential threat. they believe it is their survival. they're determined not to let it happen. to really get the correct picture on what is happening, i think is important. do you have a view on this? >> i do, madam chairman. if i could up front, let me also echo director clapper's remarks about thanking you and the vice chairman for your kind words on the members 6 of the intelligence committee on the accomplishments of this past year, some of which obviously were of enormous significance and thanks to both of you as well for your comments on the agency efforts to keep the

committee fully and currently informed. we've worked very hard to be accessible to you. i have personally, my deputy, the staff, we think that the facts reflect that. we have worked hard also to shorten the time frame from event to notification when it comes to congressional notifications and we've also increased those over the last five months as well. i like you obviously met with with the head of mossad when he was here. that is part of an ongoing dialogue. it also included conversations that i've had with prime minister netanyahu and minister barak, the latter on almost monthly basis on nearly five months i've been on the job. i think it is very important to note as the article did in the "new york times" the growing concerns israel has and that the countries in the region have and indeed all of us have about the continued activities by iran along a path that could, if the decision is made as

director clapper noted in his opening statement, if the decision is made to pursue the construction of a nuclear device. as both of you noted, israel does see this possibility as a, as an existential threat to their country and i think it is very important to keep that perspective in mind as indeed analysis is carried out. as you noted the iaea inspectors are in iran right now. i believe their past report was a very accurate reflection of reality of the situation on the ground. i think that is the authoritative document when it comes to informing the public of all the countries in the world of the situation there. iran is supposedly, reportedly trying to be more open this particular time, perhaps trying to reassure countries as it feels the

increased bite of the new sanctions of the central bank of iran sanction and the reduction in the purchase of oil from some of its key customers and so i look forward, as do others obviously, to seeing what that public report will provide this time believing again that it will be again the authoritative open source document on the program that iran is pursuing in the nuclear field. >> thank you very much, general petraeus. too many, to me, pakistan is a very puzzling country. we know that thousands of pakistanis have been killed by terrorists and we suspect that what pakistan is doing is trying to essentially to use the vernacular, walk

both sides of the street. i think i and most of us believe that having a positive relationship with pakistan as a nuclear power, a significant nuclear power, is very important. the question i have is, how do you assess this relationship which certainly had its low in december? may or may not be improving, how do you assess it at this time? >> well, let me start and i'll ask director petraeus to add in. well clearly, as you allude, chairman feinstein, this is a challenging relationship but it's an important one for exactly the reason that you allude, that you mentioned which is pakistan is a nuclear power. pakistan and our interests are not always congruent. their existential threat continues to be india.

they have also paid a huge price because of the militants that they have had in their country and have suffered literally thousands of casualties in that context. so sometimes our interests converge and sometimes they differ but i would characterize the relationship, it's crucial that we have one and have a positive relationship even though we've gone through some trying times. >> well, again, relationships are very important but the relationship right now is also quite strained. the most recent cause of that of course is the 26 november border incident between isaf and pakistani forces. the pakistani parliament, there's a committee that is determining recommendations to make for the government for the way forward with the, in the relationship between the united states and pakistan. i think there's an awareness

there as well this is a critically important relationship. that there are areas of considerable mutual concern, mutual objectives while there are also those that as director clapper noted are ones in which there are diverging interests. the actives -- activities are complicated because of the difficulties in the domestic context there where there's a bit of tension between the supreme court, between the army chief and the isi director and the government, the president and the prime minister. that may be calming a bit. there have been signs of that in recent days. it's worth noting by the way that the former pakistani ambassador to the united states, ambassador haqqani was allowed to leave and he did arrive in u.a.e. this morning. nonetheless the situation, i think as our british colleagues might say is fraught and it is going to

take some time. it is going to take a lot of diplomacy engagement and so forth to move forward in a relationship that's important to both our countries. i should note as a general comment we believe the relationship between the intelligence services is generally still productive. there is certainly good communication going back and forth and there have been some important, again, pursuit of important mutual objectives between the two services. >> thank you both very much. mr. vice chairman? >> thanks, madam chair. director clapper, press reports, and i emphasize that, indicate that the united states is prepared to trade five taliban members currently detained at guantanamo as a confidenc confidence-building measure in negotiations with the taliban. now all five detainees that are named by the press were determined by the current administration to be, and i quote, too dangerous to

transfer, and are being held as enemy combatants. as farther of the -- part of the task force, did the intelligence community concur in the determinations that these five detainees were too dangerous to transfer and should be held as enemy combatants? >> i believe in the, the original assessments of which nctc director matt olsen was involved, that was the case. i should say though that this proposed, so-called trade, has actually not been decided yet. there's continued consultation with the congress. in fact there will be a session this afternoon with the senate leadership on this issue. and of course we are certainly mindful of provisions in the national defense authorization act and the requirement for, certifications and i believe

inherent in that is continued consultation with the congress on whether or not this would go forward. that said, that i think the history has been in, in almost every case where we've had hostilities at some point in time there are negotiations. i don't think anyone in the administration harbors any illusions about the potential here and of course part and parcel of of such a decision, if it were finally made, would be the actual determination of where these detainees might go and the conditions in which they would be controlled or surveiled. >> director olsen, as stated there, you did head the guantanamo review task force that made the determination that these five reportedly named individuals were too dangerous to transfer. have you changed your view with respect to these

detainees? >> mr. vice chairman, i've not been involved in any reviews more recently of these detainees as you point out. they were subject to the review we conducted in 2009 that determined that, i believe those were among the 48 who are deemed too dangerous to release and who could not be prosecuted but i've done no further review in my current capacity at nctc. >> so it's, what you're saying is the administration has not asked you for any update of your opinion relative to these individuals? >> that's correct. >> sir, i need to inject here though that in the inneragency deliberations, certainly the ic has been asked and we have provided assessments of the five that are in question. so that has been a part of the discussion. >> and has there been a change by the community from the categorizing of these individuals as too dangerous to transfer?

>> we haven't, no, sir, i don't believe, under normal circumstance, in other words, repatriation to their point of origin, their country of origin. this is a little different. this is a different condition in terms of the potential for negotiating some form of confidence-building measure with the taliban. this is very, very preliminary and again no final decision has been made. >> let me ask you and director petraeus who are very familiar with this, are you comfortable with transferring these individuals out of guantanamo? >> for me the key would be, where they would go, the intermediate country where they might be detained and degree which they would be surveiled and that would be the key determinant for me. >> director petraeus?

>> very similar, vice chairman. in fact our analysts did provide assessments of the five and the risks presented by various scenarios by which they could be sent somewhere, not back to afghanistan or pakistan and then based on the various mitigating measures that could be implemented to insure that they can not return to militant activity. >> the intelligence community assesses, and director clapper, your statement for the record underscores that the taliban remains resilient and capable of challenging u.s. international goals in afghanistan. the community also assesses taliban senior leaders continue to enjoy safe havens in pakistan which enables them to provide strategic direction to the insurgency in afghanistan without fear for their safety. does the community assess that taliban reconciliation is likely to have a great

deal of success considering that the group is resilient, maintains the ability to challenge the united states and continues to enjoy sanctuary in pakistan and those time lines under which we plan to with draw u.s. forces from afghanistan? >> [inaudible]. >> your mic, please. >> our assessment is pretty much as you stated it, sir. the taliban remains a resilient, determined, adversary. that said, again i repeat that i don't think anyone harbors any illusions about it but i think the position is, to at least explore the potential for negotiating with them as a part of this overall resolution of the situation in afghanistan. >> want to be careful how i ask this and hopefully you

can respond in some way with respect to our relationship with pakistan. a safe havens that do exist have been pretty obvious and, well-documented publicly. how is our relationship with pakistan, at this point in time, allowing us to address those safe havens and the cross-border activity that's taking place there from a taliban standpoint? >> well this is obviously part of the dialogue that, and engagement that director petraeus and i have spoken of. and clearly this is a point of discussion with, with the pakistanis and they are certainly aware of our concerns but this is a case where historically sometimes our, a good example are mutual interests don't

always con vern. >> director petroleum, anything you want to add to that? >> again the record is obviously mixed. there is progress against some of the extremist elements in the border regions in particular that would include obviously al qaeda when you get, number, one, two and three are removed from the picture in a single year, needless to say that's a pretty significant accomplishment but it's beyond that it is important to note back in october of this past year, for example, four of the top 20 in a single week were either captured or killed. and again, some of this has obviously been undertaken together. there has been progress also by a pakistani partners against the elements that have threatened their very existence. we should remember that a little over 2 1/2 years ago it looked as of the tariq ipac stan any would march out of the swan valley and perhaps into the suburbs of

islamabad. they reversed that. they have fought very hard and taken significant casualties. in doing so they have gone after some of the elements allied with ttp in the federally administered tribal areas. on the other hand there is insufficient pressure on the haqqani network, on some of the other elements. again the allies of al qaeda such as the commander nazir group, inu and some others. needless to say the afghan taliban has not been pressured sufficiently in the sanctuaries that it enjoys in ba luge stan and other areas as well. >> general burgess you've been integrally involved in this issue relative to cross-border activity. anything you want to add in this? >> no, sir. in fact director petraeus laid the line out very well in terms of where things are progressing.

>> director mueller, a month ago the president signed the national defense authorization act and issue a signing statement in which he outlined his reservations about certain provisions. regarding section 1022 which mandates military detention for a limited type of non-u.s. citizen terrorist, the president stated that he would use his waiver authority for entire categories of cases and would design implementation procedures to provide maximum flexibility and clarity to our counterterrorism professionals. are you aware of any categories of terrorists for whom the president has used or intends to use his waiver authority and if so which oneses? and how do the intelligence and law enforcement communities implementing such 1022 of the >> let me state at outset i have reservations in two areas. our continued authority to investigate terrorism cases in united states.

that was resolved by the legislation. the other part was, what happened at the time of the arrest in the united states and the statute provides for the administration to develop a set of procedures that would be applicable to that particular situation. without getting into details i say with the justice department and the white house, they're in the process of drafting those procedures. i think it would be premature to talk about any specifics because it is still in the drafting stages. but my hope is that as we go through and develop these procedures that the remaining concerns that we have as to what happens at the time of arrest will be resolved. >> thank you for that and that comment. as you say we had extensive conversations between doj, the white house and congress on this issue as we went through that drafting and i would hope you would continue to dialogue with us.

with regard to regulations that are ultimately implemented. >> thank you. >> thank you, mr. vice chairman. senator wyden. >> thank you for you, madam chair and the vice-chair the way you put focus in this committee in a bipartisan way. i commend you to it and for all at the witness table i commend you for your outstanding service. it has been extraordinary year. might i start with you, director clapper, with iran. i have come to believe that iran's leaders are not going to give up their push for a nuclear weapons capability unless they believe it will cost them their hold on power. do you share that assessment? >> senator wyden that comports with the intelligence community assessment. if this decision is made to press on with a nuclear weapon and there are certain

things they have not done yet to event wait that, that would be based on a cost benefit analysis starting with the supreme leader's world view and the extent to which he thinks that would benefit the state of iran or conversely not benefit. so that's, i think, precisely where he is and it will be done on a cost benefit basis and we don't believe he has made that decision yet. >> what could convince them, in your view, that their hold on power is being undermined by their nuclear effort? >> well the, i think, you know, a restive population because of the economic extremist that is the country of iran is incurring, if you look at the plunging

value of the real, if you look at the two indicators i think are important, extremely high unemployment rate in iran, this i think could give rise to resentment and discontent among the populace and there is not to say there haven't been other examples of that elsewhere in the region. >> now on another subject, mr. director, you referenced a recent report that described how foreign spies, tick rarly -- particularly those in china and russia, are stealing our economic secrets. can you give us some sense of what types of secrets these entities in china and russia are most interested in stealing? >> well the report you referred to is an national counterintelligence executive report that was issued this fall which

called out russia and china for, particularly china, on their wholesale plundering i guess if you will of intellectual property. and of course they seem most interested in our technology. obviously if they can save themselves the time, expense of doing r&d on their own and just steal it from us, that works to their benefit. so to the extent they can penetrate unprotected industry networks which they have done unfortunately -- >> which industry networks, mr. director, do you think are most vulnerable? >> i think it's across the board. a lot of it is drift ren what they can get access to but i think it is pretty much carte blanche. obviously the more high-tech for them the better and so this is a serious, serious problem.

>> let me move to a third topic, mr. director. could the peaceful revolution in the arab world have happened if repress sieve governments in the -- repressive governments in the region had been successful in sensoring twitter, facebook, internet search engines and electronic communications? >> well in some cases they tried to do that. i am not sure the success of these upheavals if you will were completely dependent on social media. i think the basic problems, in this region, particularly economic, repression of political freedoms and all that, would have bubbled up anyway. i think the social media simply helped foment and amplify that resentment when people understood it was a large collective.

so, i think the social media certainly facilitated it but i don't think, without it, it would not have happened. of course some of the governments reacted to that by, their attempts to suppress such communications. >> i won't continue this. i want to ask something of mr. goldberg but i don't know how the word would have gotten out. i mean if you look, for example, at the way phones arep at thatted in the region and variety of other approaches i don't think the word would have enout. then i will ask you a question, mr. goldberg. there is a discussion now in the congress whether or not internet search engines should be involved in censorship approach in terms of dealing with intellectual property specifically. are you concerned that if that is done here this could be a precedent which could

make it harder for the state department to go forward, for example, with secretary clinton's internet freedom initiative? i've come to feel at a minimum it would be cited as a precedent, that if it is done here you could have repressive governments around the world say look what is going on in the united states. they're supposed to be the leader in terms of freedom. we'll pick up on it. are you concerned this could possibly be a precedent? >> i think we're always concerned with many conflicting strains when policy and legislation is being discussed about the internet and about how to solve various problems with the distribution of information as well as how to protect private property as it is going on in the congress at the moment. the secretary of state, secretary clinton, has made very clear that internet

freedom is a very important principle and the overriding principle as we approach all of these issues and i think when we consider whatever precedent is being set, whatever legislation is being considered, that that's the primary interests that we need to consider. we also need to consider though, and the administration has spoken about online piracy and how to deal with that very serious issue, and that this can be done within the, in a way that protects those freedoms but also that is going to not change the architecture of the internet. >> let me wrap up with you, director clapper. on an issue that i've asked about before at this open hearing. general petraeus knows about this. this is the question of use of force in a speech that was given by mr. coe, harold coe, the state department lawyer. let me note at the beginning

it is a matter of public record that the intelligence community sometimes takes direct action against terrorists and this direct action sometimes involves the use of lethal force. as you know director coe gave a speech outlining our policy with respect to various terrorist groups. he talked about detention. talked about the use of unmanned drones. and noted that under u.s. law, the use of force against terrorist groups is permitted by congressional authorization while under international law it is permitted by america's right to self-defense. but in spite of having asked about this on a number of occasions and general petraeus, you note that i too share the chair's view with respect to your working with us here in this committee and your being forth right i have not been able to get a answer to this specific question and i would like to know whether that speech that mr. coe

gave contained unstated exceptions for intelligence agencies? . .

the important work you do what me start by following on the ndaa one to think all of you for weighing in on the armed services committee and the senate at large. your concerns about the detainee provisions as they were proposed we had a spirited teammate in the floor of the senate for a number of days senator mccain was very involved us remember other senators. it's valuable and worthwhile debate and i think it was the senate at its best. i'm hopeful that the compromises that were put into the final product would work. i'm going to continue to monitor what's happening. i think the debate as to whether we ought to be prosecuting delivering justice through the military system versus the article 3 system is an important one. senator feinstein and i and others have joined to introduce the due process guarantee act,

and i think the heart of our concerns and the center of our mission is to insure americans will not be indefinitely detained. i want to thank everybody for the engagement and the passion they brought to that important debate. >> general clapper, if i could focus on a particular topic of commercial and a tree i was glad to see your comments at the csis last week that you are a big believer in the commercial imagery. you noted it has the benefit of being unclassified which is great for sharing among the war fighters all levels and with our coalition partners overseas as well as the nonmilitary. in light of those comments i've been concerned about what i've heard about the reduction in the fiscal year 13 for the enhanced commercial imaging program. i understand the white house has requested a requirement review for commercial imagery consistent with the new defense

strategy and that this preview may indicate the need for the shift away from the national technical means given that commercial providers can collect imagery resolutions that meet all of the military needs. so, here is my question to read to you believe that fiscal 13 enhanced view of budget will meet the needs for unclassified amedori? how will that affect the safety of the war fighters and our capacity to work with our allies? >> senator, as you diluted, a huge fever and commercial entry going back to when i served as the then director and later the and she a and the immediate aftermath of 9/11. and we used a lot of commercial imagery then and continues to be a great value for the reasons that you cited. it's unclassified and can be shared in collision context as well as in domestic disaster relief and the like.

that said, we are looking at some pretty steep budget cuts across the board in the intelligence community. and as a consequence, commercial entry will be considered in that look at where we may have to take reductions and we are not going to allow commercial and the tree is the only one. it's my view that not only can we satisfy the military requirements, but all the other nonmilitary requirements as well for commercial imagery of the contemplated level of funding. i think it's incumbent on the industry to perhaps come up with some innovations and business practices and this sort of thing that will help us as we look at a more constrained fiscal environment. >> i appreciate your attention to this matter and i know many of the other participants today on the panel depend on this kind

of imagery. my concern i think and you share this i hear you implying you cut too far you reduce the reach of the commercial sector and may lose skill sets and experts that have played an important role and you create a downward spiral that may reverse if it goes too far. >> this is a concern we have across-the-board not just in the commercial imagery industry but as we make reductions particularly in intelligence easily that is going to have some impact on the industrial base across the board. >> let me turn to the middle east and perhaps direct this question to general petraeus. please feel free to weigh in. syria. do you assess that the fall of the al asad regime is inevitable? or is it still in question? if the regime should fall how do you assess what it looks like

both near-term and long-term? and what are your thoughts on how hezbollah and iran would be affected should the regime fall? >> i personally believe it is a question of time but that's the issue. it could be a long time given the protracted factors here as the protraction of this of these demonstrations, the opposition continues to be fragmented, but i do not see how he can sustain his rule of syria. and of course post as odd would be the issue. there is the question about who would emerge in the situation. as far as iran and hezbollah,

what is transpiring in syria is of course a great concern to them. it's one of -- why they are both extending great effort in terms of resources and advice and this sort of thing to try to prop up the regime. >> i generally subscribe to that as well. the opposition is obviously showing a considerable amount of resilience and indeed is carrying out an increasing level of violence. the fact is damascus and now the two previously relatively safe cities, the two biggest are now seeing violence in the suburbs, the initiation of the offensive operations by the regime to try to push them out of the suburbs has met stiff resistance and i think it has shown in the house substantial the opposition to

the regime is and how it is in fact growing and how increasing areas are becoming beyond the reach of the regime security forces. post al asad, one would assume that there would be leadership from the sunni arab community of the country which is certainly the majority as opposed to the minority that is the core of the regime of the that then begs the question of what happens to these other elements to the minorities, christians and others, christian sectors as well. clearly the loss of syria as a logistics platform, a line of communications into lebanon to support hezbollah would be a substantial setback for iran and

its efforts to use hezbollah as a proxy and that is indeed why the revolutionary guard force is still engaged in trying to prop them up right now. >> let me turn to another country in the region. general petraeus, you know better than anyone how much we have invested in iraq, treasurer, reputation, and of course the lives of americans from all over the country. if you are to advise the policy makers were sitting here and in the senate and in the congress of large, what would you suggest we should be doing as iraq struggles to find a space path forward? >> well i think essentially continuing what we are in fact doing which is to engage the iraqi counterparts of the

various levels of away from the top to the diplomatic communities, intelligence and security services to work hard to help them resolve the ongoing political crisis, and there is no other word for that although it has perhaps helped diminish it somewhat and it now appears as the last 40 hours that the sunni block of the political leadership is going to return to the government albeit with still some hedging. supporting them as they grapple with the security challenges that have emerged over the course of the past two months or so where al qaeda and iraq has been a bit more active than it was for quite some period, helping them to develop further their security forces and their intelligence services to combat

the mutual enemy. we do not want to see the resurgence or the region a region of the al qaeda in iraq and a very much in the interest of both countries and indeed the region and the world to work together to combat it. >> thank you. thank you, madame chair. >> thank you range come center. senator snowe? >> thank you, madame chair and all of you for your contributions to the country. i want to follow on a couple of issues with respect to iran. obviously it's deeply troubling in terms of the direction that they are taking, and we predicate a lot obviously on the report was issued by the iaea and i know general petraeus indicated an authoritative document. they live in page eight of the report and number of activities that are relevant to the development of the nuclear explosive device including, you know, procuring the nuclear

related equipment and materials, developed in the past week with the acquisition nuclear weapon development information and documentation, work on the development of the indigenous design of the nuclear weapon including the component. i gather that we agree with the fact that iran hasn't made a decision to what lies at this point. director clapper do you agree on that? >> yes. but they are certainly moving on that path. but we don't believe they've actually made the decision to go ahead with the nuclear weapon. >> how will we decided that they have integrated all of these components in a decision to let the mize? at which point stila certainly -- >> what will be the red line? >> certainly the key indicator would be without going into the sensitive areas here but clearer

indicator would be in richmond of uranium to the 90% level would be a pretty good indicator of the seriousness. there are some other things they would need to do which i would rather not go to it in the open session that we would also look for coming and apart from whatever we could glean from across the community on an actual decision to go forward. islamic general petraeus, do you care to answer as well? >> i fully subscribe to that. again the components of the enrichment weaponization delivery and what we think would be evident if there is a decision enriched beyond the 20% that they are currently to the weapons grade would be significant and a telltale indicators.

there is no commercial use for that. arguably in fact not arguably, factually the amount of the 20% enriched uranium that they have exceeds any requirement for example for the research reactor for the foreseeable future so they are already concerns just with that. >> and the report said much of the work is dispersed among a number of locations, so would the inspectors be there for however many days, several days would they be able to discern or detect their ability to weapon is what state the are in? what do we hope to glean from that? >> as director petraeus has alluded to, the rule is extremely important here, and of course we do have to bear in mind that it is in a signatory to the treaty and the facilities that they are now operating are safeguarded meaning they are required to be inspected by