unfortunately. >> that is the book i'm going to read. >> for more information on this and other summer reading lists, visit booktv.org.

and is speculated to be buying up a record quantities of gold. with a limit of a. resources on the line what does china's race for resources mean for the rest of the world? for sixty years the -- engagement in greater seattle through programs with teachers and students, through bringing delegates to meet with local community members and organization and public programs like this one tonight. our programs are made possible for sponsorships and community partnerships and we would like to thank tonight's sponsor microsoft for the sport. greater seattle chinese chamber of commerce.

the university of washington african's study program, and seattle university's asian studies and global african studies programs. as we do with all of our events in order to reach a larger audience than the one that's here tonight, we're going to be tweeting this event from seattle. the hashtag miyowac. it if you're on twitter, follow join, ask questions, engage. we believe that the dialogue and discussion are critical to developing a better understanding of the world. and i invite you to participate in the conversation. we will be doing open q and a for tonight's event and we have volunteers who will be passing around wireless microphone. we have note cards available if you prefer to write.name your question. moderating tonight's q and a will be professor of international studies and history at the university of washington. between 2002 and 2010, he was

the director of the henry m. jackson school of international studies. prior to joining the university of washington, he taught at college and university of utah where he was chair of the history department and subsequently, directors of the ashane studies program. dr. young was born in india, of chinese parents, grew up and attended school in new deli and finished high school in mexico city before move together united states. truly an international citizens joining us tonight. with that of a quick introduction of the speaker. she is an international economist. she is the author of "the new york times" best seller dead a. why it is not working and how there is a better way for africa. she also just let me know that her new book is just hit the best seller list yesterday, i believe. in 2009, missouri ya was named

by time magazine as one of the most influential people in the world. she's regularly published in the "financial times," the economist magazine and the "the wall street journal." she excluded an ph.d. please join me in welcoming dambisa moyo to the stage. [applause] >> thank you. hello, good evening. i'm not sure i like the moyowac. maybe they dropped the is wack. in any case, it's a pleasure to be in seattle. it's a first time of many, many visits here it is absolutely freezing cold. so i'm a disappointed about

that. thank you to the host and world affairs counsel and microsoft. we appreciate the opportunity to be back here and speak to you about what i think is the most important issue that we will be facing in the decades to come. which is commodity scarcity. i originally had not plan to use slides because i think that it can sort of belabor the issue. in retrospect i'm thinking about it. i have slides that i think are fantastic and illustrate a lot what the story is. i hope you will indulge me and engage enough and push back and ask questions during the question and answer. in terms what i'd like to do this evening, i would like to basically break the discussion into three parts. first of all, i'm going spent a bit of time of global snapshot of demand and supply.

water, energy, and minerals are when we discussion what china is doing it is set in the context of where global demand and supply pressures are. secondly, i would focus specifically on what china's specific demand and supply pressures are. again, i think that will be a good lead in to sort of going from the aggregate or the macroworld picture into a more specific china picture. [inaudible] is that better? okay. and then finally, i'd like to spent a bit of time talk about ongoing issues. i guess i classify this into two areas. i will spend time specifically detailing china's three-pronged approach to securing resources around the world and then i will spend a little bit of time talking about some of the more controversial issues things like the chargers of near clonism

labor, and environmental issue china is accused of. use of prisoners and soing on to sort of motivate the discussion where i think there might be misinformation. i hope you enjoy the eventing and i hope question have a opportunity learn more about what's going on around the world. so i'm going to start off on the demand side. the global demand picture. there are three key aspects of key factors that are driving global demand. the first one as you can see in from the slide here is a global population. the worlded population roughly about 7 billion today is expected to skyrocket to 11 billion by 2050. you can see from the pictures you can see a lot of the demand pressure will be coming from the emerging markets. today, almost 90% of the world's population lives in the emerging

world and that trend will continue with only roughly 12% of the world's population living in developed economies. i want to state very clearly up front that this population growth is isn't actual an aberration. it's something that has not been seen in historical context and actually many psychologist and demographers will not believe it will be seen again after we plateau out around 20 billion people. i like the quote within it's by a psychologist. i don't know when f you call them psychologist. but his statement was as follows. the extraordinary proliferation of the human specie sis cannot fail to be recognized. in historical perspectives, it appears as a unique episode in

the growth of the species since the origin. it has no power though in previous history or prehistory for the speed and mag a attitude of expansion of numbers. and it seems highly unlikely that comparable expansion will occur in the future after the present trend has run the course. i think this reintegrating it was from 1966 what we're dealing with now is a unique set of circumstances. in the 1950s and '60s the population of the world was 3 billion. we're now at 7. as i mention we'll be going to 9 and 10 gi 20 1urbgs. unique circumstances this is why it's important to understand what it means for the world. the second key aspect key factor driving demand is global wealthy. not only are we getting larger in terms of population a lot more people are becoming

wealthier. we will have an additional 3 billion new people in the world's middle class by 2030 which is just around the corner. it's really, really important to look at how those people who would like to live like us in the room in the sense they would like to achieve western standards of living how those demand pleasures will be felt on the global resource supply. as you can sew from the slide presented here, a lot of demand pressure from wealth will be largely felt from the growing middle classes in places like asia and africa. you can see places like eastern europe will have large increases in the middle class. the third key aspect of demand pressure is urban eye dedication. decision. and i lot people be aware that the chinese in particular have embarked on a large somatic program to urban ike more

rapidly. i put the chart up here to -- rest of the emerging world. you can see from the chart that there are almost 100 cities in china that have 1 million plus citizens living there, the united states only has nine cities like that. europe only 18. the emerging world more generally is going to be the police station where we'll see urban decision whether in mexico city, or many of the cities in asia. the world expects by 2030 to have three billion new urban identities excuse me 2 billion more moving the number from 3 billion to 5 billion people living in urban areas. the pressure on commodities are enormous as they expect to have indoor plumbing, mobile phones, better building. also in terms of agricultural as we know people who live in urban areas expect to have clean oning

water but quality food. a massive driver in terms where we see pressures for resources. so i've talked about the population growth. i've talked about wealth increase and urban decision. these are the three key drivers of the demand side let's take a look on what's happening on supply. i mentioned earlier that there are four categories of supply across the commodity index. water, air, energy and minerals. let me for a few moments quickly go true some of the key aspects that characterize the supply of these different assets from a global perspective. land, there are about 13 billion hectors of land which is e equivalent about 16 times the size of the united states. however, only 11 percent of a 1.4 billion of that land is

arable and in that sense, you can grow food. one of the things we tend to take for granted is that we are not only fighting for land among ourselves as human beings animal and plants need to thrive and exist on the land. and more than that, as you know, a lot of arable land that we do have access to is not being used to grow crops. what do i mean by that? a lot of the urban areas that are actually built on land. we're not living on the deserts. as we start to see the population continue to rise, the amount of land significantly, will be basically see pressures of more people living on smaller patches of arable land. water, is a key challenge for the next decade. just two months ago, the united states department of intelligence and give you the quotes later, announced in a report that the fear that some of the biggest water wars in the

world -- some of the biggest wars wars in to come will be around water. ly talk more about conflict but suffice to say as we spend here or sit here today there 25 wars that are raging around the world that have the o begins in commodities. we expect there will be more because of the fresh water shortage. to put it into context 70% of the world earth is watr. however, less than 1% of that water is actually available or is of the quality for us to use for not just drinking and substance but also just for sanitation. less than 1%. as you can imagine, a lot of that water is difficult to access it's in mountain caps and difficult places such as rivers that we are not easily assessable. so water massive problem and big shortages expected. energy if you live in western countries, this is sort of the

big hook. everybody talks about energy prices when they reach $4 a gallon. we talk about policy issues, as they pertain to commodities shortages but if you think about it if it goes to the emerging war water is a bigger issue than energy. there are polices across africa water is rationed. you have access to water for a couple of hours a day and a lot of the political dynamics are driven much by water versus energy which would be the bigger hook in the place rick the united states. just to put a finer point on this, where as in the united states, you turn on a tap, you would never expect there to be no water or dirty water coming out ever your tap. in many plays in the world that is the case. people turn it on and it doesn't come out or it isn't clean.

water pressure and energy a big deal. just to underscore the energy point, we are living today on energy fines that were made in the 1950s discovery of the 1950s. with all the information we have about the world the greater intergracious that occurred the ability of new technologies we are living off discovers from the 1950s. for me, that was one of the biggest surprise they found and encountered in doing research for the book. finally, minerals people don't spend a lot of time talking about them. they impact pretty much every aspect of our life today, computers, mobile phones, the amount of. minerals in terms of copper, iron, steal, that is actually used in the day-to-day connell forts what they call white goods

is norms. hour, it's becoming more and more difficult to access the resources. companies having are to go to terrains to get access to the resource and more than that they have to go to more political volatile regions of the world. i have a couple of slides to show you what i mean president of energy point, i made it minutes ago, you can see from the diagram there the 18950s where the blue bars are is where we saw massive discovers of fossil fuels. as we go toward 2050 it's plummeted. it's worth facing here, you hear every now and then people say we have the miss massive discovery. one of the favorites favorites is the oil field off of brazil. we talk to people in the industry, a lot of oil finds are not known. they have known about them the difficulties being able to access them. i say the one in brazil is the favorite because it was big announcements.

they found 100 billion barrels of oil a couple of years ago and the price of oil went down. people thought we would be supplied. that oil supply is under two miles of salt and we've the technology we have today, we're not able to access it. the estimates of that it could cost over $500 billion to get access to the oil. you can imagine how difficult it is. i should point out that every year numerous people die in accessing the resources. we don't seem to appreciate that. i find it shocking that oil is about $100 a barrel. it's not expensive to us. given the capital expenditures and the number of people who die it's very expensive business. and it is a very challenging business also. i made the point earlier about the difficulty of getting mineral resources, this chart here is just underscore that point. you can see that over to time we expect that's going to be harder

to get resources such as copper from the existing or easy places the low-hanging fruit. you have to go more political places. the accidents in chill lie. the copper mine many chailly. we'll see more of that. you have to go to more difficult political environments and the terrain and the depths of of the earth people have to go to is more challenging. a few other things which i have on the side. the quality of the copper and other minerals is getting poorer. it's not high quality stuff. difficult to get really good quality. i mentioned earlier the number of discovers going down. agree yo political risk fewer and fewer people going to the industry of mining. choosing to go into other areas. so i've given you a very, very

tragic story. lots and lots of demand. not enough supplies. sup pry is scarce. it's depleting. finite. that is the global picture. i'd like to spend a bit of time talking about specifically china and what it is behind the story of the race for resources. again, let's start with china's demand story. 4 billion people. about 300 million of people live like us. the standard we've grown accustom to here. the goods news is that population will be tampering off. the pressures on demonty could be abiding. they will have a large stock of population. who are trying to live better and better lives demanding increasing and better access to resources. so the demand picture coming again from population growth

which is still growing in china is still something that will continue. wealth, many people in the room will be aware that back in the 1820s china and india was the largest country of gdp around the world. they made a few policy mistakes cooing them 300 years of economic problems. they see wealth improvements significant any country. not china but across the emerging world. it puts pressure we talk about it it already in talking about wealth, but you can see how china in particular with the improvements in livelihood is going to demand increases amount of resources. just to put a finer point on it, gdp growth, the worse estimates i'm seeing now people will be familiar with the story of sort of a softening a soft landing in china the worst estimates i'm seeing is 7.5% gdp growth.

that number will come down over time. it is lower in the 2030 in the interim as the chinese economy continues to power house along. you can expect that economic growth will translate into more wealth and greater resource demand. just again, some more indication of what's going on here. consumption is a very interesting piece of story here. traditionally china's economy has focused on investment especially lead by the deposit. chinese share consumption private consumption share of gdp around 30 to 35%. in the united states consumption of gdp is around 70 percent. you can could argue both of those are too far out into the extremes. the u.s. consuming too much. china not enough. the government in china has

deliberate plans to increase that number. maybe as much as 50% and that is going to be a key driver in powering domestic demand for greater domestic goods such as washing machines and computers mobile phones, cars and so on. there are significant number of cars now that are made in china from other international companies like bmw we expect thereby more demand from the local economy in and across china. urbannuation i said it was a big driver. we would have 3 billion more people coming in to the urban areas by 2025. here's a slide where it shows you in terms of china. chinese government has a somatic plan to move people to the urban

areas. it's easier to stride resource goods things like education, things like health care, to population that is more localize in a particular area. you can see that the expectations by 2025 is billion people in china will be living in cities. they will have over 8 cities that will over 10 million people. i come from disam bee ya the population there is about 10 to 12 million people. in china, that's not even a real city, if i may say that. you have 23 cities that have 5 million people plus. that's a significant drop on resources. very, very deliberated decision by the government. i want to really belabor the urbannuation point the sensitivity of urbannuation to commodity demand. you can see the right-hand china what specific sensitivity is to

that. by that, i mean if you have one unit of urban how do the commodities respond. for pretty much every single commodity whether so i bean, cotton, sugar, coal, gas, oil, all of the resources the sensitivity in china is higher. the more urban decision you have in china the more demand you have for the difficult resource -- different resources. i won't spend too much time on the next couple of slides. they are emphasizing the point. more demand for refrigerators, et. cetera, the one quite interesting is this one here. i'm talking about metals and minerals and oil. don't forget agricultural items become a big they or it. you can see here that china, that little red circle around it, at the per-capita-income, it does not demand anywhere near as much of the united states in the

top right-hand corner when it comes to demand for meat productses. you can expect more as chinese become wealthy you will see an increase in the demand for better quality foods such as meat products and that's once again, put a significant amount of pressure on resources. the thing about meat products, and wheat and bread and so on, i give a number of details exacted in the book the interesting thing about them. they are hidden cost of water as well. to produce units l ever beef requires an huge amount of water. in the book, i have many different camps of how water is required to have two fried eggs in the morning or have a glass of milk. it's hayden cost which i hope when people will reading through the book will be surprised and also find interesting. that's the demand picture, again, we have gone through population, wealth, and urban. we'll spend a couple of minutes

talking about the supply side in china. can the demand pressures i outlined for china specifically can they be met by supply and of course the answer is no. otherwise i wouldn't are written the book. [laughter] china's supply constraints. let's start with food. hierarchy of needs. food incredibly important. one of the biggest constraints in china is so soybeans. it is a big input for the food consumed there. as you can see, unlike any other food, corn, wheat, or sugar, soybeans is one thing that the chinese are not able to produce adequately to support the demand. you see here this is percentage of world consumption and world production, it is a massive gap demanding 28% of the world's consumption they're producing only 5%. this is good news for the united

states in case obama and romney are looking how to create jobs. soybeans is a big production. united states is a big producer and is brazil. the book talk aboutings the consequences for decisions in the u.s., but more generally you can see that for china it is a very big opportunity for them to keep importing and they do. water massive problem in china. you can see china's falling below the world average in terms of water units. this is actually lead to some very aggressive action by china. one of the big stories has tended to hit the newspaper wires quite a bit is a china's been rerooted a whole river out of india. and there have been public announcements by both the prime minister and india and the prime minister of china about how

they're going to work together. the desperation for and the need for fresh water in china is very clear, and it's very well known that a lot of rivers are polluted, and there's not enough water to support the population and this graph i think tells this quite clearly. oil demand, the united states on per-capita-income basis consumes 9 times that of china. and you can see here, the picture is not looking better for china as time goes on. simply not enough domestic protection to meet the projections of supply, the projection of demand that china has over the next several decades. not surprisingly a similar picture in copper. i picked copper because it is the one most important mineral china does not have but needs. not enough copper for china.

this is lead china to go to very, very aggressively different regions around the world across south america, africa places like congo, my own home country have been very big targets for china's foray into the resource markets. so as comments, i'd like to talk about some of the ongoing issues. this is the picture as it stands today. you can see probably as it goes to the slides that we're drawing on a lot of data that's publicly availability. however, even though we all pretty much know there's rumbling going on we have too many people demanding too much stuff and not supplies. it's scarce depleting supplies. there's not an international body that deals only with commodities. and to me, i find it very quite surprising. ..

absolutely fascinating let me share with you a few of them right now. a few years ago china's 2006 bought a mountain in peru. bought the mineral right nots mountain. it's half the right of mount eve rays and they paid $3 billion for it. in brazil, the chinese have engaged in swaps, beef and chicken swaps they pay money to brazil in the form of loans and

in return they get access to beef and chicken. right next door in canada, there's been a big discussion about the new deal that's been struck with china and canada called laptops. surprising to many people in the room, the chinese are supplying canada with laptops and in return getting pork. russia they have 25-year-old swaps for oil with russia. they give you loans for cassic stan to support the nuclear programs. my personal favorite is the infrastructure investment that china has made in africa. the distance from cape to cairo which is the north and south most point of the continent. it's about 9,000 miles. that whole distance is tart. it has fantastic road. it takes you about five weeks to drive. you go through fifteen countries. as you go from one to the next

there are big signs, again use gift from the china. i of course, i hope knob, i hope they have missed on the fact it is basically the trade. the chinese will invest in the economy, in return they are expecting to get access of the resources. china is basically in every country or many countries around the world as part as their campaign. the second aspect of the chinese campaign is the zero cost of capital. the chinese government is heavily involved in the state capitalism. they have a basically no price control this is market participates view it. we in -- maybe the chinese walk

in and say we're going to pay $500. the reason they're paying more for the assets because they are yiewt tillty function. the need for the resources is so much more significant than simply a return on the investment or simply for profit. nay need to supply food to their population otherwise they will have a political problem. and because of that, the traditional models that we use when we think about unveiling copper mines or oil well i believe are faulty, of course it happens. the fact that china has a lot of money. they have saved now over 3-d trillion. strong buying power. in the book i talk about some cautionary remarks from south korean ministers telling their own companies not bother competing with the chinese if they hear the chinese are trying to get access to certain

resources they shouldn't bother. one of the big -- africa is a big interesting place to gain resources. the third aspected of china's resource campaign is become -- it is a price center on the buying side. so we know what a monopolies is would be example of a large company a supermarket that is based in iowa, let's say. that's supermarket can set the price of what the demand ..

and wants to deal deals with corrupt leader on the ground. i think it is a very interesting point that is very incorrect and you read a lot in the western press that china's foray into the emerging markets is a nuclear campaign. i disagree with that a lot. related to that, you hear that people say, well, places in africa people don't like the chinese. the chinese are taking advantage of africans. i would refer to you refer you to a study that was conducted by the research substitute an american institution in 2007 went to africa ten countries in africa, it is in the book. and a bunch of countries and asked the africans what do you think about the chinese. do you like them? do you hate them? are they better or worse than the americans. and by a wide margin 97% the

africans said we like the chinese. they improve livelihoods and we think they are better than the americans. i think that is really important an important message to get out. i do also believe that the relationship with the chinese dynamic one. if you go places like india, you go to places like africa, the general sentiment is pretty positive about the chiebz being there. grow to places that are more develop. the united states where we see a significant investment united states government it laced with skepticism and a lot more concern. i do think that the relationship of the dynamic brazil is a good example a few decades ago the relationship between china and brazil is amicable. if you read the literature. as brazil has become wealth year. that relationship is dynamic and many aspects but i think it's misplaced to say that people are

abused -- labor ratios one of the big discussion use hear is no africans are being employed. we talk about africa in particular. it's where you hear the stories. in the book, i won't go into it here. i have a number of projects, chinese projects where official statistics from the government and different and international agencies such as the "new york times" "the guardian," human rights watch. the data that comes from the different organizations and that claim that africans are not being employed and employing chinese workers simply unfounded. you can have a look at the ratios there pretty much all the projects surveys. many more africans employed than the chinese. again, one of the stories become an old wives tail that is

detriment tal to chinese. it is not true. next point is around prisoners. another big claim you hear, they're using prisoners. in a world of camera ready mobile phones. you would think there's a lot of evidence to show this is the case. we have searched and searched and could not find a shed of this. wheyly say is the relationship with the chinese in africa and across the world isn't particularly straight toward for sure. the case or the claim there is a somatic or wide spread campaign to use prisoners to abusive environment is not supported in the evidence. i think there is a lot of scope to improve the relationship, of course, we should -- not to the chinese of any investor domestic or international where they are around the world. i think that these types of name

calling and the sort of negative story that's sub describe to china is damaging not just for chinese investment in the regions but also for the global approach that is needed for us to solve the big commodity shortages we'll be facing shortly. let me say a few points on the point forward here. which it around unilateral versus multilateral approach. as i have gone through for you already, the chinese approach is very multilateral. and also symbiotic. if you go to emerging world, people say we need the investment, we need the trade otherwise we have a political problem. we need the chinese to come in. and that relationship of where the chinese invest money they give money loans and so on in return for the greater access the most important resource of the host companies is something that the chinese have done in an amazing fashion around the world.

including here in the united states. they have given money, lent money and had access to the most important resource in the united states which is -- ..

personally i don't believe in a lot that the demand supply policy haves a lot of sort of run room because it's very difficult to try and convince people who live in the emerging world they should cut back on the consumption of resources. demand policy are thicks like consumption taxes, putting taxes on the amount of energy or oil that you can use. they sound like great policies especially with environmental. there's difficult to implement in a place where you have a large population part of the population living very poor lives that would like to see significant improvements in the living standards. as much as i understand and appreciate demand side policy on paper, i think they are very difficult to implement. we consume on the 85 million barrels of oil a cay. the united states is the largest

consumer of oil. every day they consume 20 million barrels of oil a day. it's hard to implement policies in the united states where there's much more information and many more options around energy choices. so if you're not able to implement very aggressive demand policies here i find it hard to believe you can do it in the emerging world where they are seeing significant improvements in the live. i think supply side policies have much more wiggle room. supply side policies would be much more technology investment. and rd innovation as ways to increase supply of different resources. it could be things like improved or increased investment in things like for water which, by the way, china and saudi arabia leaders in the space -- i would hope that the united states would be a big leader unfortunately they have not been. or things like new and and

different technologies around energy solutions. in the united states it has been a big buzz word. people talking about the u.s. becoming energy independent. going back to the environmental i believe the challenges to the type of and some of the way that it is done the toxins and the risk of i think mean it's not going to provide a reprieve for energy prices. and i put down military spending. 2010 data the united states spends about $700 billion on military spending around the world. it is the largest amount of money spent on military by far. they have distance second. one of the proposals in the book is that because some of the wars around the world are actually

commodity wars. even if the united states diverted a fraction of the military sphending into more resource innovation ..

working and how they are in africa of. for those of you that read the book you will know that there was a critique of aids and the second half of the book gave a whole list of specific things the world could do to try to encourage african standards in the world. my second book subtitled the 50 years of economic folly and start to places that i had again was a critique but the second half of the book was really saying that here is a building that we have done to transport. with winner-take-all the idea here is china is playing a very serious damage could argue a zero sum game because there are quite a number of resources it's

really trying to articulate it china is doing what she's doing. my books are not meant to be deutsch and gloom, the highlighting many of the unintended consequences of actions of policy makers. i won't rehash the other two books, but it's very clear that there are a deliberate policy actions that occurred by policymakers and there are and can be negative consequences to get your question is very important because the whole of unintended consequences for the lens of unintended consequences was the key driver of me writing this effort book winner-take-all because as an african miff as a resource country i was very, very interested in what the costs or the unintended consequences of china story and

my country would be. on the surface it's very positive. we need the triet, we need the investment very desperately. i didn't see this earlier but africa has a billion people. it's less than 2% of world trade even though africa has got as i mentioned earlier the largest amount on the planet. it is a leading producer of many of the resources whether it is copper, gold, oil and so on, and yet it is a small fraction of the world's trade. it's about 15, 16% of the world's population but less than 2%, so my question was is it unilaterally or a completely that china is coming into africa and my comments this evening that there are clearly challenges to china's approach, but my conclusion is that on balance there are significant

benefits to be had for having the chinese do what they're doing a around resources. however, a better outcome would be if the united states would be more engaged, the united states and many other countries in the world were more engaged in a more cohesive and coordinated approach to the resource question. so i hope that is a take away from the discussion. >> if you want to know about specific details, her books are available right near the door. should we open the floor to questions? we have a mic. >> i was just wondering if you have seen anything, the research you said was from 2007, and i was in washington, d.c. and spend a lot of time talking with taxi drivers about what was going on.

i think what i heard -- and i read it kenya is there was a short term [inaudible] they were investing, but now it's coming back to bite them because what they saw is the variable rate and they got good prices, but what is happening now is africa is disappearing [inaudible] transported back to china. and so now actually what i was experiencing for short-term gain we now have a long-term consequence and that is something to think about.

and then the other piece in china on climate change [inaudible] so what is happening is there is going to be a short-term [inaudible] so i think that, you know, it's the water shortage this winter drive a three complexity but it's not just about water ..

the whole unraveling in zimbabwe. you cannot on the lam but you can own the lease on the land. i think the fundamental question is as you expect my first book is ultimately a relationship, the reason why we are so

sensitive about the relationship in china particularly in africa is because we accept that there has to be an important and strong role of government. government has to be incentivize to do the right thing. unfortunately, for many any decades african natives have been in since device to do nothing it to abdicate the responsibility. i'd talk a little bit about this in my book and also my past books but government role to my mind is clear. the government has a responsibility provide public goods, education and health care, infrastructure and national security. think about the way live in the united states. health care is a bit of a contentious issue here i know but everything else you expect the government will provide those things. the second thing is government is supposed to regulate. you expect the government to regulate. they are supposed to police that behavior and ensure that illegal behavior is punished.

the whole essence around the financial crisis and why it has been a problem is because of the failure of government to do their job in regulation. and the third important pieces the government is supposed to incentivize good behavior. exposed to create a policy environment that encourages them to do the right thing. if you look across africa there are serious vulnerabilities in these three things. on the first , public goods are provided by the international agencies or have been traditionally so i'm usually very flippantly saying that you have usaid providing education and the bill gates foundation providing health care health care and the chinese providing infrastructure and the u.n. providing national security. than what is the role of the government? things like regulation are incredibly important. the fact that we are worried about the chinese coming to a country, growing crops and exporting them while people in

the country are starting. that to me is a failure of government and of course issues around incentives and getting people to do the right thing. it's not just about the average person and the average taxpayer but about the government teeing incentivize to do the right thing. i have written extensively about that, the fact that the action incentivize government to do the wrong thing. if you will and tells me quickly i will explain why that is the case. if you think about the contract as it exists in the united states. you have this implicit contract with your government. your government says to you i'm going to taxi and in return for those taxes, i'm going to give you public goods. i'm going to give you education and national security and incentivize you to get jobs and so on. if the government fails to deliver on that, you vote them out and they get fired every four years in an election. the sanctity of that contract is

critical for the democratic process to work. and a place like africa and many other places around the world, the fact that the government does not rely on this taxpayer state of office is a problem. so, the aid system basically creates a schism or splits and severs the relationship between a taxpayer in the government and therefore our government in africa very rationally spends their time catering to the donors and have no time or interest to the taxpayer. fortunately, every cloud has a single lining in the cliché actually works there but fortunately the financial crisis i believe has been fantastic opportunity for the african government to become more accountable. they cannot go to italy now and say oh -- would you mind -- the united states has its own problems and it makes no sense for the united states to continue borrowing maximum amounts of money from china in order to give aid to africa. it makes no sense whatsoever and

so because i think the logic has been taken, this sort of logic that has been the sort of standard in which the world is operating in the past 30 years, that is challenging the donors who don't have money. i think it's a real opportunity for the african government to be held accountable. there is a ways to go but i do believe the chinese system investing in these economies and expecting something in return. the chinese are not there for democracy or religion. they are there because they need access and that is a clot -- callus modification and it means that african governments in south america and everywhere going to have to step up and it's fantastic to be in africa and sandia in particular. the sandia's population is stood up and said they're not going to tolerate this and the government has to act in a way that i have never seen someone who was born

in sandia and seen the country over the past 45 years develop. it's a long ways away of saying there are significant problems and weaknesses in the public policy in these emerging markets. maybe because of a historical context of them getting a free pass. that is changing dramatically. the governments are going to have to respond and as i said or her cell is a good example of this. the relationship is dynamic and changing and the government will have to respond to their local populations. although they are worried about where the food is going and so on i think to the extent the government becomes more active and has to become more active i think you will see much more action on the ground. to your point about climate change very quickly, a very candid environmental issue are not my strength and not my big area. i will say it's a big problem, one of the classic difficult problems that an emerging market countries facing. what is more important, people

to survive? gm foods is a good example. what's more port and? do we want to feed people so they can survive are we still concerned about gm foods to the extent that people would die because we think gm is so bad? it is a flippant comment in the book and the chinese in copenhagen where they had a meeting with in the united states about the environmental concerns and they were asked to reduce their amount of pollution and they complained and said you are polluting and why are you giving us grief? there was a general consensus at the end of the meeting that the chinese said okay, okay we will reduce our pollution but we promise -- we will not promise to cut back on our pollution dramatically and we promise to pollute only as much as you pollute. there are some couric fundamental issues going on so a good point. sorry about that.

>> thank you for your conference. i have two questions that i'm thinking about. [inaudible] why did they give $2 million to the african union -- [inaudible] my second question has to do with can you give us an example of -- [inaudible] [inaudible]

[inaudible] >> i think i'm getting the signal that we are running out of time so let me answer very quickly. on the first , why would they give money to the e.u.? au is basically a member state and represents the member states. it is behind the curtain and behind the curtain is a number of heads of states representing their country and to me when the chinese show good faith, good intentions they say hey we are your friend and by the way in any case, i've don't personally see with the benefit is of building a huge building but you

can see it is a plus. but i do think a big nice shiny building for the african heads of state have meetings, that is not so bad in a few years ago they flew the presidents to beijing. a huge fanfare. it was completely over the top. they had imported giraffes and elephants. it was a bit insane but they wanted to give the welcome home field. i do think that these are things that these countries do to make you feel much more loved. on the exchange rate, i think your question is very valid. if china were operating in the frame of mind or the economic state of mind, that we operate in western thought, that is not how they operate.

this whole idea of exchange in ensher street, last week all the markets, oh my goodness, how many people in china have bank accounts? a proportion of the country, very small number. so you cannot look at the chinese actions i think in outlines. i understand your question and i think if you are talking about europe you would be right that there would need significant -- who value their currency or how much they'd be willing to pay for an asset that i think the chinese approach is very different. and people are worried about whether china is going to crash and it would be a hard landing. why wouldn't the chinese just start -- money. they will do anything possible to stave off political uncertainty and we have to change our own minds and understand how the government is not constrained in the manner in which we are. about the exchange rate, i know the u.s. in particular,

criticizing the chinese. today mitt romney and president obama were in ohio and i heard that, come up the chinese are playing unfair. i'm sorry to say it is unfair in farm subsidies were africa as concern. put your own gas mask on before trying to save others. [laughing] -- [laughter] >> one last question? what happens -- c-span is going to turn off. >> hello. thank you for your excellent presentation. there was quite a bit of information packed and it was actually quantitative. the statement that got my ticker going was the ge growth, geelong picture there and thinking what would be the -- look like and obviously we we are in a

monetary policy driven type of environment. obviously with inflation, the environment we are in is going to have a huge impact as we are in a resource constrained world now so any nation with a printing press export inflation to china, yes, they are able to control about what do you have to say about the chinese citizen. they don't have accounts but they have a long history of holding gold and holding silver and precious metals. d. think at some point they will basically decouple from the dollar or the next reserve currency? do you think that they are going to be able to keep the gdp deflated under control overtime because you have that relationship between gdp growth and unemployment. if that gets out of control they're going to have political issues at home to deal with, so i mean what you think about china's monetary policy going

forward. >> once again i love these types of question because it kind of oldsters -- i'm so glad i spent time going to school point of view but the fact of the matter is that in the real world it's a completely different ballgame. everything you just said completely applies to a western economy that runs with very deep monetary, very deep monetary tools. people with bank accounts who changed into straight in the mortgage market and respond immediately. that is not china and in terms -- china has a long ways to go. is there hope or can they become a reserve currency to decouple or remove themselves from the vulnerabilities of relying on other countries? yes i would say that is true. if you look at reserves, by india and brazil the economies on the emerging markets they are increasing their amount of holdings, not just in terms of

reserves but in terms of the assets assess whether its gold assets or in terms of the assets around the world. i think part of that, large part of that is they don't want to rely on the imf or the u.n. for bailouts. so very significantly there is a shift away from that. i too think also there is sort of a decoupling or a schism emerging between the emerging and developing economies. we have heard of the britain banks. there is a swap that china is doing using the -- more than relying on western currency to give the dollar. i don't think that is going to happen in great extent very soon because this sort of financial infrastructure required to have currency, china is way off from

that but to say that it's safe that they are moving in that general direction i think is probably accurate. >> please join me in thanking dr. dambisa moyo. [applause] >> you are watching booktv on c-span2. 48 hours of nonfiction authors and books every weekend. >> one of the largest publishers in america is harpercollins and we are pleased to be joined here at bookexpo america by one of their senior editors. we want to introduce you to bill strachan who is an editor at harpercollins. what does that mean when you say you are an editor? >> it means that we acquire the book that the publishing house is going to publish and see them through her imprint to manuscript to print. you shepherd them through.

the authors advocate within the house in the sense and the houses abaca to the author so that is what we do. >> do you start with original ideas while? >> in some cases you do but in most cases i do only nonfiction, so it's a little different. it comes up with an idea and a proposal in the go from there. in the case of desperate sons, this was my idea. desperate sons as it looked about the sons of liberty which were pre-in revolutionary war group that were sort of our original occupiers. they decided that they were going to make life miserable for the british, because and they were going to go home. so it starts with the albany riots, 1765 and culminates in the tea party and then the revolution. >> who were some of the leaders of the desperate sons? >> well, paul revere. some of them became iconic, sam

adams, his or others, and some of them you have never heard of but the triumph i think of this book is that les standiford, the author, has a narrative tissue connecting to the events and going to the colonies and put it in nrda form. >> where did you get this idea? they read an article. what is the insurgency movement in iraq? they said somebody might look back at our history because we were the sons of liberty were american insurgents at the time. and i thought, has anybody done a book on this and nobody really has. it gets mentioned elsewhere but it hasn't sort of developed. we found a good historian in les who is a good historic. he is not an academic historian but he is a great writer and he set out to figure out who were these guys and what happened? that worked out nicely. >> what is another book you have been working on for the fall?

>> another book for the fall, biography of elma zoo walls waltz who was an admiral and chief of naval operations from 1774. he commanded the run water navy in vietnam and was promoted to be chief of naval operations. the most dynamic naval officer and a complete renegade. he was the man who really integrated the navy against the old guard. one of the most racist branches of the u.s. military and he integrated it and brought women and ended everything else. it is widely regarded as a great hero. and i think the triumph here, and actually it's interesting because the author larry berman first met the admiral when he was interviewing him for a c-span series on vietnam. he was influential in vietnam and had a falling out with nixon

and the likes of a god -- about this so when he retired, larry approached him about doing the biography and the papers were locked up for years but eventually they came out and sealed it and now we are coming out within in the fall and i think it's great. the sort of footnote is about a year from now one of the destroyers, the new model destroyers will be named after him and launch them. so it's fun. >> we have been talking with sublive one of the editors at harpercollins and another one of their editors is adam bellow. very briefly give us your career. >> i have been -- i'm strictly a nonfiction editor. i've been an editor for 25 years and what i am particularly noted for doing his publishing books by political conservatives. so i started out doing that 25 years ago with the free press and i've published books by, i'm not sure they are still current

but my first successful book was liberal education buys dinesh sousa. i've published books by david rock, charles murphy, jonah goldberg and i've been doing that for very long time. when i started out doing it nobody else was doing it. >> is that how you develop that niche? >> i like to be contrarian. i like to be the only person doing something but it turned into a successful business so now there are four imprints in maine -- mainstream publishing that puts a conservative books including the one i run for harpercollins which is called brideshead books. brides ibooks. >> what are some of the books he want to tell us about that are coming out this fall that you been working on? >> two that are coming out in the fall, the first one i was mentioned as a book by charles kessler called i am the change, barack obama and the crisis of -- as you can imagine this is a big political year so every conservative intellectual is capable of writing or publishing of brock has one in the works

and my list is, it's a serious one, intellectually serious. although because now the left in the right each have their own sphere of media discussions, it's very difficult to get a real controversy going. it was easier in the old days when there was one big media platform and everybody had to fight for. now we have our own. it has some benefit and that it has a -- in large to the market for books by conservative writers but it means we have to be smarter if we want liberals to read our books. charles kessler is one of the smartest guys i have known on the right and i have known him for 20 years. he is a professor at claremont college and the publisher and chief editor of the claremont review of looks which is the conservative answer to the pr review of books and this is a

book that stems from, grows out of an article that was published called the three ways of liberalism. i asked him if he would like to expanded into a book, to frame it as a study of iraq obama's intellectual roots as a liberal and one of the things that is notable about kessler's book is the high intellectual level and its scathing wit, is the fact that kessler takes obama's seriously as an intellectual, as a political thinker. this is as you can imagine an unusual conservative. most of them called barack obama names. kessler argues obama is misunderstood as a socialist. he isn't really. he is really in fact the air of three previous ways of political liberalism or progressivism. all of which are concentrated really and his mentality. there is the first wave launched by woodrow wilson and the second by franklin roosevelt and heard

by lyndon johnson and there is a fourth wave which is sort of a 60's era identity politics way. obama is trying to unify all of these somewhat conflicting philosophical premises and naturally he's having a hard time with it. so what i like about the book in particular is that kessler reads obama speeches and interviews his writings, his press conferences. it's based on what obama himself has said so it's a guide from the conservative point of view to what obama thinks. >> what else do you to have coming-out? >> another book we are excited about is called the -- constitution what the with the founder said in quite some matters. as most of us know there has been a long-standing debate in this country about how closely literally one should read the constitution. in the last couple of years

since the rise of the tea party this has become a political issue. it used to be something that was simply debated in law schools but now it's something that seemed to have real-world consequences as i would point to the fact that when nancy pelosi heard that the conservatives were challenging the constitutionality of the individual health care mandate, all she could say was, are you serious? she simply couldn't believe that anybody would take the constitution literally. this stems from a doctrine that has arisen in liberal law faculties called the living

he also is a columnist for a ricochet.com which is a conservative web site that publishes very smart and good writers. i expect adam friedman to have a good career. >> is this an idea he approached you about? >> many of these books are i would have to say are a product of a collaboration for an author will come with an idea. it is very difficult to have

ideas for writers and it's not like you are magazine editor or newspaper editor in the call somebody up and say i want 400 words on x i thursday and i'll pay you whatever. you want somebody to write a book you are giving them an idea they will have to live with for a couple of years. although many others like to suggest it turns out to be in practice not such a good idea. in this case adam friedman knew exactly what he wanted to do. >> finally mr. bellow, you mentioned at the beginning you would like to see -- you are a country and. do you come from a concert of background? >> that's an interesting question. it's a difficult question to answer. put it this way, my mother was a red diaper baby, raised as a communist in new york city. so to her i have -- and i grew up in -- so i'm very much a product of that era and one of the things i would observe is i have now published i would say three

generations of conservative writers. teach one is different. each generation is very much marked by the culture, by the temper of the culture in which they grew up so i have to say i'm a product of my time in that respect but i'm also the son of a well-known novelist, saul bellow, who had a sort of classic neoconservative trajectory. he started out as a trotskyist in the 1930s and like many jewish leftists, began to move to the right when communism was undeniable and because of his concern about the security of israel and then in general he had -- will say this he didn't take the 60's very well. and it was something that he thought of as an attempt to jettison 25 years of western civilization which he is an immigrant and non-native