promoted for his brav foinnut rah er later he became president of moscow universty. d gno s at marint the story, the history of fighting actually, starting from the babylonian cla abletan g uggp, evptsswt them, printed books, large but very interesting collectio ten go mnk.

e t nout s ed into writing for people whose thought -- the most important the i r eeons this is wt we try to tell them. that the human hand left its thok f boncaof this tign et00 o manuscpts of thousands of years old, to the books before macr andoks you can see r thste cvli >> for more information on

oktv's recent visit to jefferson city, missouri, and in ma oth cits vited o c-.oocntit n booktv next, dambisa moyo talk about the impact of china's effortsto control basic resources, which ssys s huussev te maar tor llg inri mis.t ou5 >> good evening. no ezink tyby g oight the director of unity programs at the world affairs council. chinese firm, many that are state owned are ging glob, se h'turha the ha cdi,

stgrsad ceg eiar. china has become one of the top investors in africa, south america, and eastern europe. the top our - foegn wiaiidunofa urohe line, what does china's razor resources mean for the rest of the world? for 60 years the world affairs eem neseats worked to inspi ugogwthtah dete methcrig committee members and organizations, and through public programs lke this one tonigh our programs are made possible throughoip wolittak oiht sut. r d kothnur reerfor the promotional support, and they include the greater seattl chinese chamber of cmmerce, the

university of washington's afn stieog ahe s olpubl affrs d tluitsi ied alic ud ram dot l or wahala audience than the one that is here tonight, we're going to be tweeting this event. the hash tag willbi u'ntito n uense h ilgue and discussion are critical to develop a better understanding of the world. and i invite you to pticipate in the conversation. we will be doing open to a for ghevanw haen arll asgaoa re mcrope. dsoe ds laifpr oie down your question and pastor volunteered to sk for you. moderating tonight's q&a with pofessoro ination ben 0201hewst

ctfhery jackson school of international studies. prior o joining the university of wahington, he taught at sweet briar college and at the chofhsodpnt utah re he dsetlre oe n iepm. ctwsbriia, a chinese dance, grew up in attended school in new dehi, and then finished high school in mexico city before movi to the soly inaaltes to attendclege. wih auitrti o pamb as an international economist focuses on the macro economy and global affairs. she is the author of "the new york times" bssell "dea d,dw hr betr justiteeslest today, yesterday. yesterday i believe. in 2009, she ws amed by "time"

magazine as e h0mo nftieoin is ul ulshinte nctmom zianhel street journal." she completed a ph.d in economics at oxford university penalty masters degree from harvard university. please join me in welcmig damba mo to esappe] i'ottelihed of moyowac. but in any case 's a pleasure be acinse,algh ths lu fin ld buanoucft and

to the host world affairs council. really appreciate the opportunity to be back ere and for the opportunity to be able to speak to u about w thcaooe,whigin mmie cit i originally had not planned to use slides because i think that bucty retre of deliberateissue. solith thikpr fstnduse t ha tres. so i hope you'll enjoy. i also hope you will be engaged enough and interested enough to push back and ask questions during q&a. in terms of wt i would li to do thiseei,iwuke o inhrar cu rs l i g p bi ie iving you a global snapshot of where demand ansupply of the resources land, air plant in paricul, teneanmne, twenedsat

ininincen cot heb demand are. and site layout and focus on what china specific demand press go d-to,ngea om agarh maro d ur all ebt into more specific china, china picture. t br? spa it oimlkg og is. i guess i classify this in two areas. i will spend time specifically detailin this china's three-prd oao sof moooval suth l haes of neocolonialism, labor and

environmental issues tat china is often accused of, use of prisoners and se. rt tvd con wiikreht a t iiman. inas oyu noy ha an opportunity to talk more about what's going on around the world. 'mgoitost f o nde, gl nd ic. e h ets t ctth r d global demand. the first one as you can see from this slide is a global population. the world's population roughly exedt ety llpe otelne yon l rte urha i have in front of you that a lot of thademand pressure will be coming from the emerging markets. today almost 90% of thewor 12 ftepatlin

ngdepe economies. i want o state very clearly up front that thispio thas b th or cxta actually many sociologists and demographers believe that it will not be seen again after we plateau out at round 10 billion i ve isuoe.l 10. yl lg il i t i e think is a sociologist with some democratic leanings but his statement was as fllows. the extraordinaryroliferation of the humanciennai inisca ects, appears as a unique episode in the growth of the species, since

its origin. it has no paralle inreio s aagde esi nm itms ihulk that a comparable expansion will occur again in the future, as the president trend has run its course. think, eitere, ts66cawhe'oyu aru f umce e15 nd90 the population of the world was 3 billion. we are now at seven. as i mentioned it would be going toine and possibly 10b1 iman ustwh isns tr sey aspect, key factors driving demand this global wealth. so not only ar we getting bua lomoreeoplare population, miwa e maaratl

clby0,chju around the corner. so it really, really is important to look at how those people who would like to liv th ol lketv, tt lig, tdmn ess be felt on the global resource supply. as y can see from the slides presente here, a lot of that demand pessurefom wethwi lrel fth wi alla europe, also have large increases in the middle class. de, ndssis key aect f waatnen icla have a very large systematic program to urbanized rapidly.

i put this chart up here jus to illuteyo onorna afoe oe giwr alghre aot ties in china that have 1 million plus citizens living there, the united states only has nine cities like that. theror ney on te acerwell s mh whr reme i in legos or many other cities in asia. the world expects by 202f llnebas,us 2 ioogtnmer 3lip 5li of pressures on commodities are enormous as people expect to have indoor plumbing, mobile phones, better buildings. prtsop hlinult baeapef n interotht it

soetrquy . so give him a massive driver in terms of where we see pressures for esources. so i've ta out puonwt vetedu el eaan ut nion esatehkdi temsi just take a look at what's happening on supply. speak i mentioned earlier that there are four categies of ly rsse cdi dempth t atein. leln, rg i lmeuickly go through some of the key aspects that characterize the supply of these diffent assessment global perspective ndereut whisuintao mee o ud es we only 11% of 1.4 bit of that land is arable.

on h wn w o ke gedther amt elasanabd in ut lnals and plants also need to thrive and exist on arable land. and more thanhat, as you know, dosstoi ot barable land that we arile aluin able land. we take for granted. we're not living on deserts. so the aunt of arable land as we start to see the population continue to rise, inicly baleess o replin ser he a ad. water is a key challenge forhe next decade. just two monthsgo euned yoot ae,ou i e tathe t o e esterste

world, some the biggest wars to come and the world over the next several decades will be around water. i will talk more about conflic buffit osy e nde rse od, hr 25a nouhelthvh origins in commodities but we expect that there will be many more because of the fresh water shortage. to put it into context, 70% o wo,of e a te welsh ftat r atayabis uaru ou t just drinking and substance, but also just sanitation. lesshan 1%. waiso dcuf ss'si napn therno sit easily accessible. water massivemassive problem and big shortage is expected. evodlkouegigouloiern

act ounkutlk t cy issues, as they pertain, as they pertain to commodities shortages, but if w acesers ubout it, he emerging erueeias nd co icheatsaid. get access to water for a couple of hours a day. and a lot of the political dynamics in those countries have iven much more bywaterwhere wobehegeoo aly ae juutint this, whereas in the united states u-turn on a tap, you would never diae an ate10to be no wae r pe tons wal escout ot n a ality that can be used to water pressure is a very g

deal in the years to come. as i mtion, energy and stern countries also a big al. strlldere gynt alvn man 15s, iers of the 1950s. with all the information we have about the world, butreater integration that has occurred, the nabily of ew li ofdoes 0 d tinatas of igsri into research for this book. finally, minerals, people do was to lunchtime talk aout inerals that therayimpr e at ure daheisopus le po,the amount of minerals in terms of copper, whether it is iron, steel, it's actually use in our da-to-day comforts, what they call we moifltac hsr.

esoues mps hato to much more difficult terrain to get access to these resources, and more than that,they have to go to a political volatile region ofthewata upf esshou i ma poa mi adti cefrm diagram, 1950s where the blue bars are is where we last saw massive discoveries of energy, fossil you n s sgo oads siicy.d doe y anai, shj adthis massive discovery. one of my favorites is the oil fids off of pursue. but the fct tat is where talk inrylot t wo ae i thavowut s i on ilmy favorite because they were big announcements today than

100 billion barrels of oil just a couple years go, and the price of o al wendown su nrzl miid it t technology we have today, where not able to cess it. the estimates of that is it could cost ove $5 bilono ac oteni evyenmr ped acents. we don't seem to really appreciate that. i find it shocking that oil is only about $100 abare n yepee us t n cal peurorisje it ,vr sii, si, it is a very challenging business also. i made the point earlier about difficty of getting mineral sour. isrtt s sc p. ha ttcesus

ppfr the existing or easy places, called low-hanging fruit. will have go to more politically unstablelaces such th i e upyas g it a ppin iil weselmor from the casino had to go to mo difficult political environments but also the terrain and the depths of the earth do people have to go to to access te sosabenge alin gotisslh helif co a thins getting poorer but t's not high qualy stuff, difficult to get really good qualy. i menion the nub o coanas efrat ofinhog go into the areas. so i've given you a very, very

tragic story. lots and lotsf dend. figsc leghl atthobpc d t' po not talking specifically china and what it is tht is behind the story of their race for resources. abiliha ionfor lela o hn about 300 million new people live like us. so standards that we have grown accustomed to hear. sort of good news if you patwie ri f. vetewllha r k population of a billion and for people who by the way are trying to live better and better life in demanding increasin net ss eos. whis gng in china is

someing that will continue. wealthmany do in this room 18 hiniaehe thatbc in esunso e thad feike ta st hree hunches of economic development. we are eing economic growth. we are seeing alth improvements, significant in the couny. nostnaas emngld atl pure edutisle lkabwe, yo n hoin atcular with the improvements in life that is going to demand increased amounts of resources. just abo a finr pont wiilmwthppl orsf oen a ftdin china. the worst estimates i'm seeing our staff in the 7.5% gdp growth. as cee h ors utme,t

3rfmu wr. inir hse economy continues to powerhouse along you can expect that economic growth will translate into more weal and, therefore, greater resource demnd. ainomreicn hagoon here. consumption is a very interesting piece of the story here. esaledthtilly ischn's vent esh nsuti atnsioar ad 30-35%. into united states, consumption share of gdp is around 70%. you can arguebtosr to ouin tet. ch oo inuh gh e rn in china has very

deliver plans to increase that number, maybe as much as 50%. dr iweriomc going to ba key coer durables. there are a significant number of cs now that are made i bminafm fes l organization. remember i said urbanition was pe cmnoth ba. s025 omre s t ow what it is in terms of china but as mioned earlier the chinese government has very, very sysematic plan to move people into urnae'sieo eoes

idein lke ucn tnslk reouatthre cad any particular area. you can see that the expectati by 2025 is a billion people in china will be living in cities. thilvoilov igti icmeond mms laoout 10 to 12 million people. in china that's not even a real city, if i may say that. you have 23 cities tatvmin le l atga v ic feve derdeon he onm i don't want to belabor the organization point but also very interesting is some data thate have on sensitivity of urniio cooditm si h aecthd nsit t urbanization. and by that i mean if you hve

one unit of urbanization, how do coithe ieysingpo easu cr,ca l, fr all of these resources, sensitivity i china is much higher. and by that i mea the more urbanizationn china, the more mahatv oe ertes t e ion e ce ld usey really just emphasize the point i just made. more demand for air conditions, refrigerators and washing chin as you moe urb ars, heo ihn s itteini hwh bee ted t ls d i a oil. but don't forget culture products also become a big factor. you can see you that china, the red circle around it, as its per de aerars use itdoesn untest o

t cer hnitcm dd mprts uapct oeand more chinese become wealthy, you will see an increase in the demand for better quality foods such a meat productsandthatag pagcaant eur oou. thabapod mend ed d o on, i give a number detailed examples in the book, but the interesting thing about this i the our hidden costs of water as well. reesinnamoofduc unit fef dienemleofw much water is required to have two fried eggs ithe morning, or to have a glass of milk. and i think it's those hidden arroinf bokwl ewhen people itrpd uo fnd e reg. h tmaic, an'vne u population onto wealth and we've got to urbanization. spend a couple missed out talk

about the supply side in china. and th demand pressure th stuer a anf outen e otiswouldn't have written the book. [laughter] so china -- let's start ith fruit.odreyipr e t bstonnt i s oys s gnpor the food consumed her, and as you can see, i like any other food, so rn, whe or ua,o e g tnere topohead. you can see re, this is the percentage of world consumption and world producti. there's a massive gap, 7 worlcnumonhea uc l st i aema r

ro aoo fow to create jobs, soybeans and come is a big proction, the tho a bhtes a big roduc nq oe sifo uhe n . bm ch this a very big opportunity for them to keep importing, and they do. ..

boowy'oio buhspior ath edr h nhi i r,sere known that a lot of rivers are polluted, and there simp is not enough water toupport the an tap t, st o per capita income basis consumes nine times that of china, and you can see here the picture not louc onor a meoe prtitot t ecs slyex me, the projections of demand that china has over the next several decades. unsurprisingly, at is similar picture in copper. pkedoppebecain mompnterth yoane here versus mine

supply, not enough copper for china. china very ry assygo dre rns sse ama,os africa, zambia, my own country have been very big targets for china's foray intohe resource markets. so as promed i'd like talk ong iest isis pread thh sl that we're drawing on data that's publicly available. juav meoeblis gng on,e magdotou ly d, ce tend th otn international body that deals with only commodities. and to me i fi this quite surprising. havherl te

tr wveenn nss os he noauln, but there's nobody, not one internatiol body, focusing on what i consider to be the big issue which is commodities, our sps. rvas susi, hed a taran a li--s a conflicts. just in the book a list, a couple of listshat show a number of the wars that are goinon rht nune d,eof c inntnd tso icreroou rd itilih department of intelligence in the united states has talked already about some of the expected water wars in the years to come, but bd ive fati aid onar, pbl tells you how boring ri life is.

but there's a database which has data of the water wars going faatbee oesdt' esnib lnle wrs sagi esi the middle east, places in africa for example, wher theughts around water are more significant. bee ll fm ntti of w ws t lyleis l mmo wom i'm afraid, if we can't -- we don't do something about it. which is exactly what this says. inig cilm be- this is th edtaeby 2 er nt arat ors gome ilures to manage them are likely to lead to social disruptions, pressures on national and local leaders a, pontially, pitical tyf, tellb

co bse ol for terrorist organizations. so this is the picture, but not much is being done about it to the best of my understanding. chaspt w ili toureses i you don't mind, i'll spend a few ments just explaining what i think these three key aspects are. the first one is ts iea frinxi lo tn nd c in dregis around the world that have traditionally been the developed wod, places like the united states and europe have kind of deat.sest ha ppatat my t rnsl l riso aca ern peeryear pockets of people who are young. in if -- in africa 60% of e

ace leas 7ofr euln re theebshed te, they need investment, and this is rlly, really important be because this is exactly what china can offer. prinest,prinviding trade, i's piungoand rnsentry y ogeff s reses iik do if you don't mind, just give you a few examples. there's a whole list of examples in the book, and it's absolutely fascinating. but let me sha with you a f hem ghtw. bounn peru, bought the mineral rights to the mountain. it's half the height of mount everest, and they paid $3 inzi thecheav chn s,ey y m

an rney getaccess to beef and chicken. right next door in canada there's been a big dssn st benna aad t hn 'slerkfopt thoohehinese are supplying canada with labtops, and in return -- laptops and in return getting po. russia, they hve ear s sut rleprms d my personal favorite is an infrastructure investment china has made in africa. the difference from cape to iro,hisic t of cne i aee meiserewrk cor whole distance is tarred. it will take you about five weeks to drive.

you go throh 15 counies,d no -pelyot policymakers, i hope they're not missed on the fact that this is basically the trade. exin getcc the tarest in the sos. tainsoss,an guesses? it's australia. china is, basically, in every country many, many countries around the world as prt rmp. sespofh mp i tid er bee cheoment is so heavily involved through state capitalism, they have basically no price control, or at least this is how market partipan wou vie i hocu o wrnod in tthof gsoucodsh

el so we estimate that the value of this podium maybe is $100. and maybe the chinese would walk in and say, ll, we'r going to pay00 i lleashein e he i thneorse resources is so much more significant than simply a return on investment or simply for profit. they need to supply food to eirpuonthsey epoca pem beeha u itlelha w tboal a copper mine or an oil well, i believe, are kind of faulty. of course it helps, the fact that china has a lot of money. they have sav lif, $tronf ig rve t poy av ngyi in book i talk about, um, some cautionary remarks from south korean ministers telling their own coanie not to bother coeting thhe

in aryi tccohe rtreceey ldbo. d th b o mpglahe the competition is really heated up a lot is in africa because today africa has the most ll so cma wna 10 ale ,rin interesting place to gain resoces. the third aspect of china's resource campaign is she's beco a nnousst atce ser ngde la compa, a supermarket that is based in iowa, let's say. that supermarket can set the price of whao caalrmho l owe ngelei e ys th o rmt,so tfo the

supermarket can say i'm only willing to pay you 30 cents. so china, in that sense, has become a nonop fis ppndl heke milsrenaas m ueanhe min ii des prices of these resources. so you can imagin and think about how transformational china's aivit. cawetag t coitsh b f a is uthat they're able to influence the price of a resource. um, so that is also quite a significant, significant part. ofstng ie. s i f tsnsu e this issue meaning commodity scarcity and resources -- is an issue where there's not enough information that is true. anthito lot oinat

woininsoth ryy ou pem and i'd liketo just go through a few examples ofome of the things that you hear about around the world, um, in paular around cin ce rrc fi o and chs alry t on sovereign risk and to take over these different regions. and in the book i talk about this quite a bit because as a political construct and plac l aa, k t ptain omel mac a chisotfr os utme folal gain they have absolutely no interest in finding out what's going on politically in these counies, all they carebout is the ecicagen. beotof criticism on the other side that china's not --

doesn't care enough about the political infrastructure, and they're willing to do deals with corrupteaders on the ound d inisaeve veinecha d reot picly terehat ina' foray into the emging markets is a neocolonial campaign. i disagree wh that a lot. te tohaouarat af pe tli t es ch eakan africans i would refer to you, refer you to a study that was conducted by the pew research institute, an ictituon,in7 ntaf nt aa, tine ok sel, ghana, ethiopia, a bunch of countries and asked the africans, what do you think about the chinese? do you like them? do you hate them? artheyetteorors an wgitag ou7 ri

the ovche. livehoods, and by the way, we think they're better than the americans. and i think that is rlly important, an important message get out. reon wthinise yo t esiaf, e general senment is pretty posive about the chinese being there. you go to places that are mo developed, the united stes whh received significant invementrom in , ou ,sh rg lr u isalre lth epsm a lor coern. i do think the relationship with the chinese is dynamic. brazil is a good example. a few decades ago the relaonship between china azas eic iu mofrre az u mealr, aot relatiship is dynamic in many different aspects, but i think

it's really misplace today say people are-- mac t disiyoarfhe rica are being employed. especially i'm talking about africa in particular because this is where you hear a lot of these stories. in the book, a i won't go rougit he, av a er pct es ojh oia atcs terts t drefrican countries, but also from government chinese, verified by chinese resources and also from international agencies such as "the nework tes," t dihugh w, e eahameom e er oizns and the claim that africans are not being employed and that they're employing chinese workers simply unfounded. ra t fre mal look at the afnsplhain m , n,es ses

be o w' tale that is detrimental to chinese invement in africa and across the world is really not true. um, next pnts nd iss,otbilaou inor ca-y biho you think there'd be lots of evidence to show that this is the case. we've searched and searched and could not find a shred of this. reon wthhe ttth n'n cro woid piclyt straightfoard, for sure. but the case or the claim that there is a systematic or widespread campaign to use prisoners to an viensit i khaer a lf oprohe sh pe viotst of the chinese, but of any investor, domestic or international, wherever they are around the world. but with i think tt the

s omell oegeryat dangt cse investment into these regions, but also for the global approach that is needed for us to solve wel acg slyty shortas th tjuay aoion e,ntur w around unilateral versus multilateral approach. as i've gone through for you already, the chinese approach is very multilateral, a isal sio oumegrl le wnehe vent nhe te, hee e ait problem, so we need the chinese to come in. and that relationship of symbiosis where the chinese loanon iurey, they give money, imanso o eo che d i ama

fashion around the world, including here in the united states. they've given money, they've lent money, and they've h wh ie coerthe st impoan oced enmeg t bveas happened. um, i think it does work because these countries do need this invement it's not wit rk. 'rlkab dti exadin, e n t things i talk about in the book is really to encourage policymakers in these countries to be quite focused, um,to safe the money ththey're -- to frhehetoag esosh m wesecoiekewa iryl. 'sy rtth countries in these emerging markets do the same because there is no love lt, i believe, if a mine no longer produces copper. i don't thk the chise will ng nd, ay

oundtiveg e es , jooste lterpph the chinese with that of the unilateral approach which i would argue has been the case particularly forlaces like the united states, the u.s. camign nd wse ursusen nt unerm hea ertion for itself. that kind of, um, those tes of incursions, i believe, in the long term dot serve us as a glal cnity. es psh ns evti h e' picobin a rg-pcioy, abos o adds an additional $10 to a barrel. so it's very significant for world coumption and for the price of these resesan int'ob n tt so leoab wo oe way forward, u

there's a tendency, i believe, to talk about demand vsus supply policies as sio ,soy n'li a te - cu teli ve ofrtf run room because it's very difficult to try and convince ople whoive in the emerging world that they should cut back on their consumptio rrc coptta stti xe t atofne o thouik t policies especially with environmental concerns, buthey're very, very difficult to implement in a place where you have a large to sfiprenlipulatioivi t lgnd apiaandeolicies on paper, e think they're very -- i think they're very, very difficult to implement. we consume on -- we, the wod --ons mon els o d

un ss hege umvy dit nsmiars l y. it's even been difficult to implement policies here in the united states where there's much more information and much more savvy, many more optns a gyoi f re a poesrei va rdli tou b able to do that in the emerging world where people are only jus seeing significant improvements in their lives. um, ithinkupplside polics mmo we r lyeoesld gs morchgy ventchoinme &d innovation as ways to increase supply of different resources. it could be things like, um, impred ornced itm chnddiabes tac ohope that the united states would be a big leader in that space.

unfortunately, they have not been. or things like new and different tenologies,ourg umhitst kiasoma b u.omrgboth depend but going back to the environmental concerns i believe that the challenges to that type of, to fracking and some of the way that it isdone u tsde r sigano tth ans ly g prid a reprieve for energy prices. and then i put down here military spending. 2010 data, the united states spends about$7 biom, marpengouhe rl i tarun neen mar by far. you know, the other countries, japan, china are second, very distant second. onof trolsthok tauan aclymorsnk

diedt fraction of that military spending into more resource innovation,um,ot only would you have less wars recenkoulde he veea tghau of'din a oe solutions, um, to desalinatio and so o that could actually plthproble iheir ummgo toit t esamnd iss att fr the chinese environmental minister that came out last year. the depletion, deterioration and exhaustion of resources and the riion the eirnt veom souttck mywha i ballsa commodity prices are going up, we have a long, long way before we actually get to a place where

is at'heais focused onth iee. iehaou taw i tury from in the urgency of this, the fact that the intelligence shrti tsifs alreadyorecng thel ic m bee ommitie to survive. so thank you very much for your attention, i look forward to your comments and questions. thank you. [applause]

ackgund sounds] >>m, cyoe,is e div rty ldfo a viv us. given all the ideas that dr. moyo has presented to us. and certnly ers at fhot :pp sooft tdgis dier [lauter] i hope that's not symbolic of wher dr. moyo has taken us. [laughter] but i'm sort of tkife naiv re ted for all your readers and all of your listeners everywhere. and to some extent there' a ininome ato hloomoo

etasstne t l because there are no punctuation marks there. there's sort of a finality to all of this. so where's the silver ling, anperhs ony at tiorcoteau i lo alou ts symbiotic relationship betweenhina and africa where you see,nlike most people who have written as wen ste seat hni.und ah llaiha you. thanks very much. um, well, first of all, it is a bee oud aboeople ge swept aay itof m s,h al a ti bee roi' an

optimist. i know that's hard to believe. in dead aid, the subtitle was -- what was the stitl oetth at gh af.itt wyfow f e who read the book, you will know that the first half was a critique of aid to africa, but the second half of the book gave you ahole st ospichiat t rlultod worindine sdoho t west was lost, subtitle was 50 years of economic folly and the stark choices ahead. again, it was a critique butt s h oth i s lyin w, i mare ali ong at bneon t y around. similarly with winner take all, the idea here is that, yo know, china -- we are playing a very serious game. you could argue iter s bsere ai

whtea for the world that china is doing what she's doing. my books are not meant to be hilighting many ofhe're inedonenceof i wtaheheo th um, there are delerate policy actions that occur by policymakers, and theyren bee rontdiman eqes the lens of unintended consequences was a key driver in me writing this third book, "winner take al. beuse, asfr receh tr w ryryntten w osts or the unintended

consequences of china's foray into my count would be. on theurface itooksery si, weeed e tre, ednvene ery. dnany eer t dt th rl bfr i aillion people, it's less than 2% of world trade even though africa ha got, as i mentioned earlier, the largest amount oftilled leg uc oe s sos he'sco, ldndn. ye'sll fraction of the world's trade. it's about 15, 16% of the world's population but less than 2%. uner o uoteionas, ist tiha ca'om anu'earo m enhi eng that there are clearly challenges,um, to china's approach. but, um, my conclusion t la tar wh rinar - wh

they're doing around resources. however, a better outcome would be if united stateswere more engaged, the unite states but nyercountrie wod re gen he aooat oao rrc taaym isio >> and, please, if you want to know about specifics and details, her books are available shwe on thlop tdoo yoav? haou oyhera y lk sstoin if you've been seeinganything. the pew research, as you were saying, was fm 2007. taam inoal ihe actually i taxi -- somaliaxi drivers about what was going on because they send their money back,

obviously,o support their families. and i thk what i heard, a i hed f a dop re ti ed st ekru ag rps kenya, which is there was this short-term -- [inaudible] basically in africa. the chinese were coming in, they weveg. t whspe th ust toui a l fryd prices, but what's happening now is is the bread basket of africa is disappearing because the chinese are growing crop e s, eop fis nfori. 'sngrarta a or ces d n actually, what i was experiencing was a lot of upset and concnboutor a loernsnc a d tk 'ssoin k a.

co, e overlay in china with the water issue, of course, as well as climate change, and 19 tlas e tsnow that hasfa ws engre in b st-, r as k, melting of the -- [inaudible] glaciers followed by a long-term drought. and the tetantebr teop pt, noorus tin t ou t downstream countries and hundreds of millions of other people in it- wor intnam, cambodia. g ri v le ecic n jbo tes. meyehe cse ineist to retain water up on their own plateau. they've built 10,000 dams to retain the water.

so it is enormously complex ihkke g atl c y k essure -- are coming much and much more prevalent, and it's quite concerning. i think your book's very timely, and i reallyppreciatwhat vee. o k veuc f oms. d alppat w ved. in tors in t t a couple of things that strike me. first of all, theroader point is that you are seeing that the relatory environment is manyfrntte ridly i tu ctuy l ats az u n asdsu nnot -- and zimbabwe's an example. you cannot actually own the land, you can own lease on the land. but thk tre aml whaclynkckoy t bue-ad

e, is ultimately the reason why we're so sensitive about the development of china is because we acct that there hasto itaanon r anventli vent ho b thizo heht unfortunately, for many, many decades african policy policymakers have been incentiv to do nothing and gomeold istee very clear. governments have a responsibility to provide public goods, things like education and health care infrastructure and naonalsecu. thit sese e the'bi elouex t gnms g ride those things. the second thing is government's supposed to regulate. they're suppose today police bad behavior, they're supposed t insurehategehavr

sh cr owh inn acte problem has been because of of of a flure of government to do their job in regulation. thhe gnmisppportan pie i ceizod bio 'rppcr linvmeha ur u d r thing. if you look across africa, there are serious vulnerabilities on these three things. on the first point, public goods are provided by te ecomic ci oavn itll uayaha usaid, bill gate, the chinese, the u.n. providing national security. well, then what is the role of the government? inikuln ed ita ft le b in crywiopng exrting them while people

in those countries are starving, that, to me, is failure of gornment. and, of course, issuesround do r t i -ting people inn oues n a pe, age mabo gnmen being incentivized to do the right thing. and i have written extensively. dead aid was really about that, the ct that the aid syst ifildu m vi iclu eaiy yoinoueeat contract as it exists in the united states. you have an implicit contract with your goverent. your government says to you, i'm for oses'mngou, and ire edio'mngoiv y oncu, go ivize you to get jobs and so on. if the government fails to deliver on that, you vote tm out so they get fired every four s yav act d th stift

inlae aa a r es around the world, the fact that the government does not rely on the taxpayer to stay in office is the problem. so the atebally ea sm it thaxr d t gnm tfour governments in africa very rationally spend their me courting and catering to the donors and have noime or interest for theaxr. uny, ts e cr iieasee a fantastic opportunity for african governments to become re accountable. they cannot go to italy now and say, oh,gosh, do you mind prm?here st tnt bwid ivmschina in order to give aid to africa.

it makes no sense whatsoever. so because the logic iseing taken,he sort of logt han th s t day hldas ths g cenbee trioo don't have money. i think there's a real opportunity for african governments to be held accountable. there is a way to go, but i do believth the chisete umd etiomng i rnhehe n errocrli, they're there because they need access to resources. and at sort of callous or very clear motivation means that african gornmes iso errye,rin e stp. inza in particular, there have been skirmishes with the chinese, but the population has ood up and said we absolutely are not going tolere th, d thha t-he

ant. ho sp so it's a long-winded way of saying there are significant problems and weaknesses in the public policy in these emerging maets. main because of tstal ntofemttgee ss athange amal rn agoha sp and as i said, brazil's a very good example of this. the relationship is dynamic and changing. african governments are gointo have to respond to their l puon lth e eri ouwhe t fis g so ohi t extent that governmentsave to be more active, i think you will see at change on the gund. ca,nvnmsuret bey nomya.ent' wiayss ibi itnef the classic difficult problems that an emerging market country is facing. what is more important, people

to survive, to bed? wh m ita e carvor st ncbo gm foods to the extent that people will die because we think gm is so bad? the sortf flippant comments in coagwhhe h a etin ud es t eonal er tyesko duheunof pollution. and they, you know, complained and said, listen, you were polluting as you became industrialized, why are you giving us grf? ok,kaok wed, of gal poiote is - nom cut back on our pollution dramatically, we'll promise to pollute only as much as you pollute. is g, go ptcore funmental s rrouat el n i nale

anu ypo ipye way -- powerpoints, by the way, i was praying you'd have some. two questions that i've been thinking about, a so i understand why thehewod st ll b ils ig ist leli b hh ethiopia. but i really do not understand why they gave $200 million to anmi ala y ounion to bu the ai [inaudible] so what are they trying to get apart from the african union? and my second question has to do with give us an example of how eyane 00 r pumanso lly f,u.ase ng tetin tn their exchange rate. even though they have a fixed exchange rate. so do you think at if they value their curncheul

thinat- thon nale th as nsne to a budget constraint? so if the exchange rate's changed, that's going to draw on the foreign resees. inoinhe t bee - nale >> in'mti t gnha'rnnt me l me answer you very quickly. on the first point, why would they give money to the au,ell, cun, isumfbacallb rns,ds of state representing their countries, and to me, it's a smooth passage when the chinese show good faith, good intentions sayi, he wereou f inin eaar op i c 'tsoy,onee atnetohm

ng that they're building a huge building in addis ababa, but, you know, it's a significant infrastructure dup er a . t a bce sy afnst o hs a ye a they flew all the african presidents to beijing, huge fanfar it was completely over the top. elntndyusntedirafs a ler ould guisaanut wee fo dhi ese are things that these countries do to, you know, make you feel much more sort of loved. he exchangrate, ihink yquon vid inwepeinne e in o ton state of mind that we operate in in western thought. that's not how they operate. syis is a staapitist

isle iof ies mas,h,yod,s big stimulus. how many people in china have bank accounts as a proportion of the country? it's a very small number. and so you cannot look athe thenis,inn i kfreki, ri t te beu ,ignificant knock-on effects of revaluing their currency on how much they'd be willing to pay forn asset. chine oa iserk that the yonoheeo a ieouet ca' bearan, ldt hestt pin money? they'll do anything possible to stave off political u certainty, and we have to -- unrbty, and we have to change th theseovenre taunta whwe.tanin exgee.ouhe owhe uin particular, people spend hours

criticizing the chinese, oh, they're cheating. even today mitt romney and president obama were in ohio, i thinheayis comment come up,oh, ir on resi wa ca crn p your own air mk on before trying to sustain others. [lauter] >>erps oas ques? vien'riniggt

gepaner a resource-strained world. the printing pres exboarding to china. dtcneczehee t a hs holing gold, silver, precious etals. do you think they're going to be sud in codro te se rcy t outhnkty' ng o eethtt do you think they going o keep the gdp deflaters under control er time. pgth eyme rln bween the gthe il douithbtw. china's monetary policy going

forward? >> once again, i love these questions. i'so glad ispentmeo toooino vew r i's alg ytisjua cotelissa western economy that runs with the very nkouyhgettarytols,ee' d ert long way to go. is there hope. are they acting to becom a rerve currentty istoele emtmsseomt erit l he cuci ylo reserves accumulated by not only by china, but brazil, they are increasing their amount of holdings not just intms sos e ptsa

land assets around the world. i think part of that, a large part of that, they don't want to rely on the imf,erte shafmalyrei d in s if you -- there is a decoupling in the emerging between the emerging anddevlopicmi th iannho ind.bts t us the remedy much more than relying on western economies particularly the dollar. don't think that is goingt useofncen ry son astuti ui to are the reserve uniter sei. china is off from that. to say they are movi in t

lejotinara [applause] there a book you'd like to see featuredon boktv? owerth annual book publishers convention inew york city at the center. ca.ooktv c-spansn miitnsof t ejdbilwss which is part of the penguin group. >> we are conseative political improfen go ng h a sn c s iogunun

. t' called american son. everybody who -- everybody who stttipoti-span is one of th om ba.wimgr foem to produce a senator who is 41 is a op of the country. it's mang. s nerooom s >>is when you have politicians you want to keep a book under wraps. the mdia is ready to get ad u t ep er wr >>weknaurlyha a in out. >> it's in the fall called a patriot history of the modern world from spanish-american war

ue the d w wi s istgcerve fes most academic, with when you may not agree with. mostrofessors have certa liberal bias er or rld to ad gsehtcba eehe i rod a conservative perspective on the history of america and the world. and the previous book was a big best seller. e.'re rill toav te nx blngoi blngnttomar. it was an accident of circumstance when i got out of college. it's been fascinating for more than twenty years because you're thanlning etinines ke ogeat re yu pral erve >>hiheadrs

of pl opinion. i think some of us are conservative, some our moderate. r excitementcmmentis ind n o t h itst pi d uswel reenaser rf th lng industry. >> one more book. former huckabee. >> i think it is the fourth bok with i. er ga chen fa a l nefly -- it's interesting with politicians times they do the best with books that have nothing to do poti. e c t hvve ab webtngwih set ep america. >> thank you very much. and now mre mfe

okiseith pl e literary history of the area. they provide about 18,000 jobs. iflyseaset ton8 hello, my name is mark. i'm the man here at linln university. we'd like to welcome you tothe special lecon athi the collection since we are an hbc historically college or university what we have in the collection is motly orntedowar e caer hrync d hor,dohaalo ot orks besides

african-american based literature. we so haveretty much a full run of tops that arecored by rar cns yt feeahry science, literature, all the way up through technology. we have it covered here. what we'll do. we'll have a run through of what kindfwatwe'h u coti m g aanast help me display the books that we have here. we have books from a to z sicay. hblryhah it's 1915 edition of that. we have a lot of basic books that any library would hve. idegejoveme ok

around and -- if you're familiar with the library of congress system, we're pretty inclusive as f as this goes. but main,likisd, riaman history and the black experience. ishhitofsee over herehisook, ttn 1883.tas it is one of the older books we have. wh's interesting about the history books on black americans in taanri teamer si g te elefheo so positive. and we have quite a bit of

lle,wgng o llonre whe cll the vault reading room. we'll continue on. llonrlyaste s o . sove everything from -- this is a first edition, it's been rebound, obviously within this is a first edition ogy.k g to ane'veu e this in our collection. we've also got quitea few books onaahinn. isonatkosse

thhe ohe spectrum. this is by a dutch doctor, and as te n6ou frtpngae it'sn so compliment. d't read anything after that. it wasn't very complimentary. you want to know what's beng said. this isroy n t is ni to show visitorses at the archives at the library.

bmis is a book about hrt is rn1866, the special thing about this book is that harriet made her mark on st o toh y vee page library. obviously she couldn't read or write. she left hermark, the sign of the cross. and wmpesristo eye st hri , h y ec uawheet a feature done in either media, newspaper, television, or magazis, his is what ae, ade' 'rouur past, our her

technology, our -- our heritage, and hiory. mbofth6a h i18, e he officers from the 62th colored infantry rchard baxter foster wrote letters t wiceisead wa r fr mndr also their former fellow slaves. d so foster wrote se letters inl llniite abouteinth whheagreed. he wrote, i can do well in missouri. i think i n see a day that we will live