and know every platform and understand the features people are playing with so i go back and forth between the two. >> one more time, the site? >> publishers market place.com and the free ebook is cald w hnalngw der pli marketplace, and publishers luck. >thank you. >> you're watching an interview from book tv's recent trip to foormatiis bookpo expo america.com. >> on book tv next, we talk abou the impact of chi's reurs, says is geurssing even demand around the worldollowing the industrial revolution. this is an hour and 15 minutes.

>> good eni. vebooii >> >>ry is ake, i hope? not freezing. my name is alise cato and i'm the director of community cocirams at the world affrs inemsng global. they're purchasing commodities, investing resources and accessing foreign markets. china has become one of the top 'vestors in africa, south america, and eastern europe. up a record quantities of gold. with a limited amount of resources on the line, what does chinese's race for resources mean for the rest of the world? for 60 years the world affairs gl examining engage independent greater

seattle through programs with teachers and students, who are bringing delegates to meet with local community members and organizations and through public programs like this one tonight. o proams are made possible rough sponsoripsnd mmitpaneps w ulike tonht onr, mrosoft, for their support. we would also like to thank our copresenters for their promotional support, and they incle the greater seattle chinese chamber of commerce, the university of washington's african ses program and anveits ia studies and global african studies program. as we do with all of our events in order to reach a larger audience we're going to tweet thisvnt theastagl b s y're on twitter, follow, join, ask questions, engage. we believe the dialogue and discussion are critical to developing a better understanding of the world, and i invite you to participate in

the conversation. 'leoinor nit've h nt will be passing around a wireless microphone. we do also have note cards available if you prefer to write down your question and pass it to a volunteer to ask for you. modenghe qs .yog,fessor at the university of washington. between 2002nd 2010 he was the director of henry m. jackson ho,au tbol a the ivsi uas chair of the history crept and subsequently director of the asian studies program. seth young was born in india, of chinese parents, grew up and takenned school in new dehli and then finished high school in mexico city beforeovingo t unitte t aendolge tly an international citizen joining us tonight.

a quick introduction on the specker. focuses on the macro economy and global affairs. ti b sleeaaihe n y ay and how there's a better way for africa. she also just let me know that her new book just hit the bestseller list today, yesterday i believe in township, sheas med by timein one of 10 m ilutieoe he wld she is regularly published in the financial times, the economist magazine, and the wall street journal. she completed a ph.d in onomics at oxford yard and holds a masters degree from plngrdnirsy. pp

>> good evening. i'm not too sure i like the idea of moya welcome ac. the fact they dropped the -- in any c it's a pleasto be algheshe rime of men visits here it's absolutely freezing cold. so i'm a bit disappointed. thank you to michael and the hosts, world affairs council. real where appreciatthe opportunity to be back here an oorni topeak toou abt w isheost ansstil be facing in the decade to come, which is commodity scarcity. i originally had not planned to use slides because i think that it can belabor the issue but it illurates a lot of what the story is so i hope you indulge

me and will be engaged enough and interested enough to push back and ask questions during the q & a in w too tveni ouiko bically break the discussion into three parts. first of all i'm going to spend a bit ofime giving you a global snapshot of where demand ,ban inary of t resourcesand te erg minerals, so when we discuss what china is ing i is set in the context of where global demand and supply pressures on. then i would focus specifically on what china's specific suly aihail good lead-in to sort of going from the aggregate or the macro world picture to drilling down into more specific china picture.

>>nd then finally, i'd like to spend a bit of time talking about ongoing issues. i guess i'd classify this io two areas. i'll spend time specifilly detailingna ch t secingesrc around the world ask then i'll talk about the more controversial issues. things like the charges of neocolonialism and issues that china iscced of, use on a sort of vaisiohere i think there might be a lot of misinformation. i hope you enjoy the evening and iope we'll have an opportunity to speak more about what's going on around the world. 'moingort o ndide. the global demand picture. there are three key aspects or key three factors driving global demand.

the first one is the global population. the orld populatio rgh lio tayste ockeo 9 eoe on the planet by 20 50. you can see fromhe pictures i have in front of you that a lot of the demand pressure will be poti l imeinghe emerging world can that trend will continue with only roughly 12% of the world's population living in developed economies. >> i want to stateery clear and up fntthi laonro actually an aberration, something that has not been seen in historical context, and actually many sociologists and demographers believe it will not be seen nd0 ioopn tu an by 2100.

i'm going to read this bay sociologist. john durand but his statement was asollo: the beec a o of the prim features of modern world history. in historical perspective, it appears as a unique episode in the growth of the speci hi prestor the speed and magnitude of expansion of numbers, and it seems highly unlikely that a comparable expansion will occur in the future after theresent trend has runts course. i stathi ridat-- s bauhat are dealing with now is a very unique set of circumstances. in 1950s and 1960s the population of the world was

three billion. be ne, possi ty 20.nd going t vnimstaes,anshyo important to understand what this means for the world. the second key aspect or key factor driving demand is global wealth. so not only are we getting bu a lorer o pulion, congealt he estimates are that we will have an additional three billion new people in the world's middle class by 2030. which is just around the corner. so, it really, really is li u inhis rm, to nshey like to live like -- to achieve western standards or living -- how the demand pressures will be felt on the global resource supply. as you can see fm the slide dee omea w elt from the growing middle class in places like asia

and africa, but you can also see that places like eastern europe, who have large increases in the middle class. >>heeyec reur urbanization, and a lot of people will be aware that the chinese in particular have evolved from a large very systemic program to urnize more rapidly. hocaiziofortoll champion and the rest of the emerging world. you can see from the chart that although there are almost 100 cities in china that have 1 million plus citizens living ere, the uted states has onines le ro 1 geyin b t place where we'll see much more urbanizeddation, whether you're in mexico city in lagos, or many of the cities in asia. the world expects by 2030to

hailli nius -o iow urbanites, moving up to five billion people living in urban areas. the pressures on commodities are enormous haseople expect to ph and better building, clean rung water to the tap and better quality food. a massive driver in terms of whe weee pressures for resources. o,alkbo the i' about wealth increases and urbanization. these are the three key drives on demand side. let's look at supply. su t are four cegof interesting. airable land, water, energy, and

minerals and let me quickly go through the key aspects that are characterizeheeply of these erenas fmlo rpeiv nd are 13 billion heckors of lan, which is equivalent to 16 time the side of the united states. however, only 11% of our fot gion of that lap is we tend take for grande we're not only fighting for airable land but also animals and plants need to thrive and existnd more than that, as you kw, a lot the bl too h ce to nng to grow crops. what die mean by that? a lot of the urban areas are built on airable land and we take that governor friend. we're not living on deserts sohemount airleand

toncaly, will be -- will basically see pressures of more people living on smaller patches of airable land. water is a key challenge for the next dade. inig -ll aheni the quotes later -- announced in a report they fear that some of the biggest water wars in the world -- biggest warso come will be around water. busuice s t weutonic an h or sit here today, there are 25 wars raging around the world that have their ore gyps in commodies. we expect -- origins in commodities. we expectany more because of there wer srt %heor of at. however, less than 1% of that water is actually available or is of the quality for us to use

for -- not just drinking but also justor sanitation. asg, ot of. di t access. it's in mountain caps and difficult places such as rivers that are not so easily accessible. so water, massive, massive problem, and big shortages expected. if oue iesntes evybody talks about energy prices when they breach $4 a gallon. we'll talk about policy issues coityrt bat is perta to m bge iue t ey. erere places like india, places in africa, where wares remarks -- water is remarked. you have access a couple hours a iv m wwhhelitic tes edplyf

versus other sources of energy which would be the bigger hook in a place like the united states. just to put a finer point on this, whereas in the united states you turn on a tap, you woul never expect it to be no te or c o t. inyn t emerging world that is the case. people turn on taps and water doesn't come out or comes out an it's not of a quality that can be used. water pressure is very big deal in the years could come, and energy in the western countes also bea st rnderore gy pnt, we are living today on energy finds made in the 1950s. discoveries of the 1950s, with all the infortion we have about the world, the greater integration, that occurred, the we'rilivff thn diy t 1950s, and as for me i think that is one of the biggest surprises i found and encountered in doing

research for the book. final russian minerals, people don't really spend a lot o time rely impact our life, whether it's commuters, microphones, mobile phones, the amount of minerals in terms of copper, whether it's iron, steel, that actuall used in our ca wte gds economists, is enormous. however it's becoming more and more difficult to access resources. companies are having to g rough much more difficult terrain to get access to resources and they'aving to go t moroliclyol onsf a i heou s thoou what i mean. the energy point i made this point a minute ago. you can see from the diagram there, 1950s where the blue bars is where we last saw massive discoversf ene yo ceeards 2050, that

plummets. you do hear every now and then people say, gosh, just had this massive discovery. one of my favorites ihe oil fields off of brazil. the fact of t matter is toinhe ius l o tseil aot new about those. the difficulty isn'ting to access them. the one in brazil is my favorite because there were big nouncements, they found 100 biion barrs of oil a be peohougee ago andhece ing bed -- flooded with supply. that reply is under two miles of salt and even with the technology today we're not able to access it. the estimates is itould cost to t o. n etcc an iag hiflt i suldo point out that every year, numerous people die in accessing these resources and we don't seem to really appreciate that. i find it shocking that oil is

only about $a barre gi the capital expenditure and the number of people die, it's a very expensive business an challenging business also. i made the point abo the fficulty ofetng mer ther undor e nt chat over time we expect that it's goingo be much harder to get rources such as copper, from the existing or easy places, the low-hanging fruit. you have tgo tmor tillytae ach onesso, the accident in chile with the copper mine. those incidents we'll see a lot more of them because you have to go to more political environmentsnd the terrain and theepths of thearth pplegocces ecin meha. a fewther things which i have on the slide there.

the quality of the copper and other minerals is getting poorer. it's not high-quality stuff. quality.t to get really good ofisvea g d owge pital risks. estimates in cost and fewer and fewer people actually going into the industry of mining, choosing to go into other areas. ve s.ve veyoa ver no eh supply. suly is scarce, depleting, finite. at's the global picture. i'd like to now talk about andirry a fd --alk out lest with the demand story, billion three, billion four people are the population of cna. about 300 million of those people live like us. so the standards that we have grown accustomed to here. wi bg o s thedews, i

pressures on commodities will be abating. however, they will have a large stock of a population, a billion four people, who are trying to live better and better lives, acss resources. so the demand picture coming again from population growth, which is still growing in china, is still something that will continue. >> wealth. many people in thi room will be are thathe 10s, iia targest countries with the largest proportion of gdp. they made a few policy mistakes and cost them 300 years of economic development. we're seeing economic growth. we're seeing wealth improvements siificanin the coury th wilut p-- we talked about this already -- in talking about wealth, but you can see how china in particular,

with the. improvement in livelihood is go to demand t p fer omountsf resources p gwth-the-worst estimates i'm seeing now -- people will be familiar with this story of the softening, a soft landing in china. the first estimates are 7 to 7-1/2% gdp growth. nuer w d yanr tha ehe frastf the 23rd 23rd year, much lower. in the interim, as chinese economy continues to powerhouse long you can expect economic growth will transla into more wealth and greater resource demand. >> just in more indications of what's going on here. consumption is a very intesting piece of a story here. haoc ononally cna economy

specially led by the government. the chinese share consumption, private consumption's share of gdp is 30-35%. in the united states, consumption is a share of gdp is around0%. d y cueoth ere onto tres. s.s consuming too much. china is probably not consuming enough. the government in china has very delibate plans to increase that number. maybe to as much as 50%, and that is going to be a key dr toerg meican r greater domestic goods such as washing machines, durables, such as computers, mobile finds and cars. there are aignificant nber carsade inamth terniolpaese w, and we expect there will be much more demand from the local economy in and across china.

>> organization. remember, iai oanition sig d biionplom io the urban areas by 2025. well, here is a slide that shows you where that is in terms of china. as i mentioned earlier, the chinese government has a very, very specific and systemic plan to moveentohe uan ve ot'asie to provide resource goods, education, healthcare, to population that is more localized in a particular area. you can see that the expectations by 2025 is that a - ineingeople i chaio th'l have over eight cities with over ten million people. i come from zambia. they have 10-12 million people in china thas not a real city. 23 w monplpl ahas

very significant draw on resources, very, very deliberate decision by the government. >> i don't want tobe labor the organization point but also very intestinis data w have on itivef u commodity demand. so you can see on the right-han side what china specific sensitivity is to urbanization. and by that i mean, if you have one unitf urbanation, h do esomdieses fouc ery sgl commodity, whether it's soybeans, aluminum, coal, gas, oil, for all resources, the sensitivity in china is much higher and i mean the more urnitin pi t the resources. the next couple of slides just emphasizes t point i just

made wag ins tne for air qtentestis is here. i'm talking about minerals and oil but don't for going ricultural products become a big factor. cane,ot see here china per wre nhe ed ss and the top aren't corner when it comps to demand for meat products and you can expect as more and more chinese become wealthy, you will see an increase in the demand f better qualityoods suc atnde putting a sissant amount of pressure on our resources. the thingbout meat products and wheat and bread and so on, i give a number of examples in the book but they're hidden costs of water al,ec uce u bequi an inordinate amount of water.

in the book i have many different examples of how much water is required just to have two fried eggs in the morning or to have a glass milk and i i wch peeleore b w b surprised and find interesting. >> so that's the demand picture. again, we have gone through population, gone through wealth, and we've gone through urbanization, and we'll now talk abouthe pp sin chi. ou forhi just icly -- can they be met by supply and of course the answer is, no. otherwise i wouldn't have written the book. so, china -- let's startith od one of the biggest constraintses in china is soybeans. it is a big input for the food that is consumed there, uike any othe fd --orporation,

eaoyans inghinere n able to produce adequately to supporthe demands at home. you can see here, this is percentage of world consumption and world produion. roci 2utiassive gapan this is good news for the united states in case obama and mr. romney are looking for how to create jobs. soybeans and there's a big prodti --out is a big bilthokal ass nses o t decisions for you here in the u.s., but more generally, you can see that for china, this is a very big opportunity for them to keep importing and they do. maeemnhi u c s china's falling below the world average in terms of water units.

this is actually led to some very aggressive action by china. one of the big stories that has tended to hit the newspaper wires quite a t is thi speereho river out of india. and there have been some public announcements by both the prime prie ofndow india and t they'll work together but the need for fresh water in china is very clear and very well-known lot of rivers are polluted and not enough water to support the population. and this graphic tells that quitearly. il demands. the united states on the per capita ince basis consumes nine times that of china, and you can see here the picture is not looking much better for china as time goes on. prtio tesc

ojons of supply -- projections of demand that china has over the next several decades. unsurpringly, similar picture in copper, i picked copper because copper is tos portt milhach sothiee. ouan here, versus mine supply, not enough copper for china. this has led china to aggressively go to different reon aund tor ut aa,on ,y home country, has been very big targets for china's foray intohe resource markets. >> so, as promised i'd likeo lk about the ongoing issues. ishe ptu atas ase've gone through the slides we're drawing on a lot of data that is publicly available. however, even though we all

pretty much know that there's some rumblings goes on, we have too my people deman t mund deeting supplies. there is not an international body that deals only with commodities, and to me i find this quite surprising. we have the world trade organization that focuses on trade. we hhaongn ndocin vi the g-20 is focusing on banking regulation but there's nobody, not one international body, focusing on what i consider to be the big issue, which is commodities, our able to survive as a human species. surilyaso tfs conflicts. i'm not going to go through this list but in the book there's a list -- a couple oflies that show a number of the wars going on around the world. some of tm civil war whin ne tri t tre s resou

rders. as i mentioned earlier the department of intelligence in the united states has talked already about some of the expected wat wars in the years to come. buttonhat, i hav a faasai pba i llou how boring my life is but there's a database which has data of the water war going back a thousand years. and it's fcinating becau lot of the pces that are crulrafo wer ars she se regions, places like the middle east, places in africa, for example, where droughts around water are more significant. think that interestingecause you'll see fro the list here that acty aot ofheat otn r reflected on the list. so many more wars to come, i'm afraid, if we don't do something about it. which is exactly what this says. this is what i'm -- the

statement from theational intelligenceouncil for ed ste br2. shortages and government failures to manage them are likely to lead to social disruptions, pressure on national and local leaders and potentially political instability. i won't read the second one but it really tksbout h thi tyf he l wer e meseverage and could be used as a tool for terrorist organizations. so, this is the picture, but not much is being done about it to the bt of my understanding. exceptf you'rehina. chaas apt teeppach to securing resources, and if you don't mind, i'll spend a few moments explaining what i think these three aspects are. bendth aessne is this idea of is c t dfent gis around the world that

have traditionally been places that the rest of -- places leak the united states and europe has nore hree ny gilaceikea,utera, eastern europ, have very, very large pockets of people who are young. in africa, 60% of the population is under the age of 24. across the middle east, 70% of cosiknd0%ation undhe a e pulion under the age of 15 they need jobs and trade and investment and it's really important because this is exactly what china can offer. so china is proving trade, providing investments, providi hay mag off some of in their resources. what i'd like to do is give you a few examples. there's a whole list of exales inhe book and it's absolutely fascinating, but let me share

with you aew of them right w. rs china's 2006 bought a mountain in peru, bought the mineral rights to the mountain. it is half the height of mt. everest and they paid $3 billion for it in brazil, the ch swaps toso they pay money to brazil and in return get access to beef and chicken. right next door in canada, there's been a big discussion about a deal suck betwe a clepo surprising to maybe people in this room, the chinese are supplying canada with laptops and in return getting pork. russia, theyave 25 swaps for oil withussia. ivoa t kakhstan uranium to support their nuclear program and my personal

favorite is infrastructure investment china made in afric the distance from cape to cairo, which is the nth most point and south most int of the ntin is t tes t st y to at miles. that whole distance is tarred-has a fantastic road. takes five weeks to drive. you go to 15 countries and as you go through one country to geif f tountry, ntchf ur i h nobody -- special litsch not policymaker -- i hope they don't misunderstood this is the tde. chinese will invest in economies and they're expecting to get access toesrces. the larst ripnt ofei cttmt, ptiy in rrc is -- any guesses? australia. china is basically in every country or many,any countries around the world as part of theirampa

caai o zoine cost of capital. because the chinese government is so heavily involved in state capitalism, they have no price control. this is how market partipants would view it. wen -- who foc o the stince thihi tgh a discounted cash flow model. so we estimate that the value of the podium maybe its $100 and th chinese would walk in and say we're going t pay $500 for it. the reason why they're payo mu morhe aet ca ty' utility function. their need for these resources is so much more for profit. they need to supply food to their populion. otherwise they will have a political problem trs tsese of tt, t we think about valuing a copper mine or oil well, i believe are kind of faulty.

of course it helps the facthat china has a lot of money. they have saved now over an tignica inrers, ability to have strong buying power. in the bike talk about cautionary remarks from south korean ministers telling their own companies not to bother competing with the chinese. if they hear the chisere tryinget accs, t ldt erd f the big sort of compete can places where the competition is hot is in africa because africa has the mostntilled aab planned on the plane so comparedna w %ariable plan. the first aspect of china's resource campaign is that becomes a price-setter on the bung side. so,e knowhat --ete

the example of a large company, a supermarket, that is based in iowa, let's say. and that supermarke can set the price of what a commodi is ina tintelhethe farmers whoe mahi one supermarket and the supermarket can say i'm only willing to pay you 30-cents for a tomato so chinese has done that in particular, copper and coal are already viewe ne whe cmp s chnf as the margin of buyers drives the prices. so you can imagine and think about how transformational china's activits are becse we're talking about publicly traded mt w cpeti ou bend tns he have one buyer that is so he that they're able to influence the price of a resource. so that's also quite a

significant part. >> i'd lik to spend a lite bit of time talng about the outsins. f ttsissue where this issue meaning commodity scarcity and resources -- is an issuey there's not enough information. that is true. a lot of misinrmation, and tr to solve this very, very serious problem. i'd like to just go through a few examples and some of the things you'll hear about around theorld in particular around china's race for resources e fir o isro olia tdeat china is actually trying to take on sovereign risk and take over different regions and i talk about this in the book, and in africa, i think this is lelyised a wng. isotfra oross

south america for political gains. they have absolutely no interest in finding out what is going on politically inhese countries. all they care about is an ecomic theoetesoues int, athing, there's been a lot of criticism on the other side that china is not -- doesn't care enough about the litical infrastructure and they're willing to do deals with corrupt leaders on the ground, and i think this is a very, vy reg pnt tt incorrect-particularly in western press,y china's foray into the emerging markets is a neocolonial camp pain. i disagree with that aot. related to that you hear that peoponik tceli e cnereaking advantage of africans. i would refer you to a study conducted by theew research

institute, an america institution, in 200ento ca i ri- th i t book -- and a bunch of couries and asked the africans, what do you think about the chinese? do you le them? hate them? are the better or worse than the american? an by iould margin -- lkin aut9, t frneai we like the chinese. they're immoving our livelihoods and we think they're petitioner than the americans and i think that is an important message to get out. i do also believe that the relationshith the cses ynic o oue india, africa, general sentiment is positive about the chinese being there. you go to places that are more developed, the united states, which receives significant ininvolvement from the chinese thnt really moreend to laced with skepticism and a lot

more concern. i do think the relationship with the chinese is dynamic. brazil is a good example. a few decades ago their lationship wasmible. if youhe late. atios ch fuss was become wealthier, and so the relationship is dynamic and as many different aspects but it's really misplaced to say people are being abud and don't like thehinese being there. or k peced than that. >> lab you're ratios. hearing that no africansre employed. in the book -- i won't go through it here but i have a number of projects, c ojhe oic at f teovent of these different african countries countries and verified by chinese resoues and also from international agencies such as the new york times,he

gudi, hanrihtsch comm tifre organizations and the claim that africans are not being employed is simply unfounded. you can look at the rats there for all the projectsurveye che.rics pln th become all the wife's told that is very detrimental to chinese investment is not true. next opinion is arou thin pneea or cera ready mobile people app phone us -- mobile phones you would tick there would be pictures. we searched but could not find a shred of this. chesenan aossheith t oe'tsn particularly straightforward for sure but the case or the claim

that there is a systemic or widespad campaign to use prisoners, too abuse the environm i splnot ppte inhee. hi t a lco irohe ratnship of course we shod police behavior, not just of the chinese but of any investo domestic or international, wherever they are around the world. ...

will say we need investment and trade. we need the chinese to come in. that relationship of symbiosis d m,oand chinesenvestoney urn for the most important resource of these countries is something the chinese have done in amazing fashion around the world including in the united states. they have given money and went money and had access the most rrcf st w ihe consumer. the symbiosis that has occurred has been something i believe has happened. i believe it does work because countries do need these investme it is not without. aal aleng assets and resources that will noexist at infiniti.

one thing i talk about is we need to encourage policymakers to be quite focused to save the money ey areetng fm th che ma toues mo we have seen countries like norway do it very well. very important that emerging-market are the same because there's no love lost if the mine longer produces copper i don'thinkhe w harotoes in these places. just to contrast the chinese with the unilateral approach which i would argue has beethe , the united stat, the roeldo ro resoces such as iraq. classic example of unilateralism and the idea of every nation for itself. those type of incursions' in the long term don't serve us as a global commy. maoiicorxpsive.

every time you hear that there's a political problem in a large oil producing country, it costs an additional $10 a barrel. it is a very significant for world consumption and the pri eieay to solve the problem. a few last words. on the way forward, this tendency to talk aut man versus supply, personally the demand policies have a lot of sort of run room because it is ery difficult to try to convince people who live in the emerging world to cut bk on r surce de pie things like consumption taxes. putting taxes on energy or oil, sound like great policies

especially with environmental concerns the difficult to plement in a place where you puont diktoe part o see significant improvements in their living standards. as much as i understand and appreciate the policies on paper it is difficult to implement. rrof aayon thittas the largest consumer of oil. everyday it consumes twenty million barrels of oil day. it is a difficult to implement policy in the united states ere there is much more tiar ey ois.and many me if a not able to implement aggressive demand policies i find it hard to believe you could do that in the emerging world where people are only just seeing significant improvement in their li le- pie tholies would be things

like more technology investment and much more investment in innovation as ways to increase supply of different resources. it couldehingli irod orrenvtmtse desalination for water which china and saudi arabia are leaders in this space. i hope the united states -- fortunate they have not been ersolutions.new and andsed in the united states people talk about the u.s. becoming energy independent going back to the environmental concerns there the challenge to thatype of the yseen done. the toxins, there will be a reieve for energy prices.

tary spending. rn $700 billion around the world. largest amount of money -- japan and china a very distt nd of ppolsn thoo is because so many of the wars around the world, even if the united states diverted a fraction of military spending into more resours innovation not onl would youave e held but a lot of resources wouldn't have a reason to fight because we find a lot of solutionso desalatnan era osc in solving these problems.

hy am going to stop wii amoing s e riio t environment is a serious economic and social development. my view is this is basically saying commodity prices are going up. we have a long way before weet to pla wheheld i fod hisndhat wos . i hope that you take away from this the urgency ofhese issues and so many wars arnd the world and telgee unfostwa suggest we should prioritize this and commodities to survive. thank you for your attention. look forward to comments and questions. [applause]

[inaudiblconversations] [inaudible conversations] >>otedcaoull hr me? motivated we certainly should be for a very lively discussion. given all the ideas presented aerlyrea of food for thought here. sitting here at the edge of this

podium i hope that is not symbolic of where dr. moyo has rebook hit together and thinking of a kind of narrative you really created for all your readers and lieners everywhe. to some extent there a certain amount of bloom and doom going to winner-take-all. there are no punctuation marks. there's a sort of fidelity to all of ts. m that question more concrete you do this in your book a lot, talk about this symbiotic relationship between chinand africa wher you see unlike most people who have written abou t sje lf

positive he facts as well as why you should wake up and see what is happening. >> thank you very much. first of al pplgeswawif rd sub of my books they actually all are very positive. i am an optimist. i know that is hard to believe. ou this.itle was --k the subtitle was why it is not working and there's a better way for africa. for those of you who read the book, more than a critique -- u hosecond hf of the bookave inheldou do to improve africa's standing in the world. the subtitle was 50 years of

economic folly and stark choices ahead. that is a tie but in the send hf ofheoorely sa oiswh mistakes have been made and this is how we can turn it around. similarly with winner-take-all the idea here is we are playing a rious ge wuld ar-- aumr of resource china's resources, really trying to articulate what it needs for the world that china is doing which it is doing. my books are not meant to be doom and gloom hhl te cquences of action by policymakers. i won't rehash the other two books but it is very clear there are a deliberate policy actions n egivcoes by policymakershat

the question is important because the role of unintended consequences for the lens of unintended consequences was a key dvein writing this third b african -- resource rich country i was very interested in the costs for consequences of china woulde. si.eurfacet oks v wed tde and investment desperately. i didn't say this earlier but africa has a billion people. less than 2% of world trade. even though as i mentioned earlier it has the larst ouf arab lanonhe et ieangroce of many resources whether copper or bold, oil or silver and yet a small fraction of the world

trade. 16% of the world population but less than 2%. myueiois i i unilaterally a complete positive that china is coming into africa. you hed from my comments this evening that there are clearly challenges cha'apoach bu mco obace thar s benefits to be had for having the chinese do what they are doing around resources but a better outcome would be if the united states were more engagedith man r tr mend ohivancote approach to the resource question. i hope that is the take away from this discussion. >> you want to know specific details, her book are available sha open forp t st.

you have a mike? >> i enjoyed the signing of your book. i was wondering if you have been ingt d. dm7 d a lot of time talking -- what was going inkt oced development director reid, in kenya and --in africa e chin coming in but now -- [inaudible] -- the

breadbasket of africa bau thin gng- full african studies beingeld to china for the chise and so now actually what i was eieg, s-tm gaatth long-term consequences and that is something to think about and the other piece,he overlay in china is the borderss f atannd tth viy. what is happening is a short-term major kind of melting. huerdrgh [iib

o ihinkouno sag a complex piece, not just -- on the w cexndikeou i n the war. think it rapidly -- these issues are becoming much more prevalent. is quite concerning and i ally appreciate you h mments.fou i really do appreciate what you said. in terms of your first point there are couple things that strike me. first of all the broader point is we re seeing theat

u otand in brazil. you can get leasehold and in zimbabwe the hole unraveling around issues of bland sir you cannot loan the land. u can own a lease on the nde fn tongn w links back to my first book, ultimate be the relationship -- the reason we are sensitive about bseac t i p in china andfr strong role of government. there incentivized to the right thing. for many decades african policymakers are incentivized to do nothingat tir responsibilities. in my past books, government will to my mind is very clear,

things like education and healt care, infrastructure and national security. think abt thway ou liv i un ss. th care is a contentious issue, you expect the government will provide those things. government is supposed to regulate. e expect the government to regulate and police bad bevior and to in shtalehior sscef the problem around the financial crisis or y it didn't exacerbate is because of the failure of government to do theirobn regulatio for the thirpiece is ea policy environment that encourages us to do the right thing. if you look across africa there are serious vulnerabilities of these three things. on the first deck of public goods are provided by international agenciesr he

betritnay. usually very flippantly say you have education and bill gates providing health care, cnese providing infrastructure and the u.s. providing international security. what i theolof gse lare incredibly important. people are worried about the chinese coming into a country and growing crops and exploiting them when people are starving. that is the failure of government and of course issues arnd itis antt t ie countries just about the average person and average taxpayer but mainly about government being incentivized to do the right thing. vent d sm ntized g. i ein why that is the case. the democratic contract exists

in the united states and an implicit contracwith the government. the government said i t gyo the sweeter public good. i will give you international security and incentivize you to get jobs and so on. if the gernment fails to deliver on that you wrote them out and thet fid anou ael. thnc o tt critical for the democratic process to work. many other places around the wod government does not rely on the taxpayer to stay in e mal cat a schism or semblance of relationship between the taxpayer and the government. therefore our governments in africa very rationally spend thei time courting and catering to the donors and have no time orntt f xper

fortunately every cloud has a silver lining. fortunately the financial crisis is a fantastic opportunity for governments to become more accountable. they cannot go titaly now and sayou you mind sti out e edtes makes no sense for the united states to continue borrowing massive amounts in china to give aid to africa. makes no sense whatsoever and the logic is being ten,he c heen st da by which the world has operated the last 30 years, challenging traditional donors don't have money. a real opportunity for governments to beeld accountable. there is a way to go but bee c ste of investing in these economy is and expecting something in return, they are there because theyeed access to resources

vent smecandt of callous or everywhere are going to have to step up. it is fantastic to be in africa of. they have been skirmishs with the chinese but in the opulation, stood up and said we veev as somebody born in zambia and seen the country in the last 45 years develop. the long winded way of saying there are significant problems in public policy in tse tiscantt gngre. that is changing dramatically. government have to respond and as i said to make an example of this the violations of is dynamic and changing. theocal pulionsas to respo to ere fng and so

on, governments become more active, have to become more active than you will see more action on the ground. to your point about clate antoyn fiiasure m strength in my big area. i will say a big problem is one of the classic problems and emergingarket country is facing. what i more important? for pe t survive and fewhs ita wnt feed people so they can surviver are we so concerned that people will die? because gm is so bad. the sort of flippant comment in peennhe he cnese in meeting with the dene and the united states about environmental concerns and they were asked to reduce the amount of pollution and said you are polluting as he became

e consensus was the chinese said reduce our pollution but we will not promise to cut back on our pollution dramatically. we promise to. only as much a y pollut fundament iss is go on toiahe me. sorry about that. >> thank you -- tueio. understand -- in nigeria or vietnam i did not intend why $200 mil in e afca at the african union doesn't

own in link and investing another chance and my second question has to do withg n pl of $500 -- trying to get china to change their change rate. teingbleo go that high even though they have issues and budget changes. that is goio draw on the serves. >> i am getting the signal we are rning out of time, they give mon- aew i

member states. look behind the curtain, in number of government and heads of state representing countries and to me is a smooth passage when the chinesehow good faith and the intenti b sinwe veg in ethiopia in any case. i don't see whathe benefit is building a huge building in addis ababa. fruc b w ignica plut sld where the heads of state have meetings is not so bad and a few years ago they flew all the african presidents to beijing in huge fanfare. mplyr-thto mplyr they wanted to give you the welcome home feel. so i do think these are things

these countries do to make you feel sort of loved. quonvevalid. if china were operating in the frame of mind for the economic state of mind that we operate in in western thought that is not w oat id of exchange-rate, interest rates, all the markets, the big stimulus. how many people in china have bankccounts? a proportion of the count, very sll number syo ok athehise action. i understand your question. talking about europe you would be right that there would be significant defectand how much you woulbe willing -- the che oa i

lerythhina is going to crash with a hard landing. nsne tanwefficalcent are. my last point about the exchange rate. in the u.s. in particular people spend a lot of time criticizing the chinese. they are cheating. today mitt romney and president obama were in ohio a ird y ayhe u. ays incredibly unfair in foreign subsidies. put your own gas mask on before trying to suffoce others. n going to -- c-span is going to turn off. [talking over each other] >> didn't mean to offend.

anu yceen enon qua of information packed in. what really got my ticker going was gdp growth over time. atldaldp o tt, re and thinking because obviously we are in a monetary picy driven type of environment. the inflation environment will nsnerl huge impact in aesrce rtinio to china, they can print and control it but what do you have to say about these records golden globes and chinese citizens d they had a long historyf sndcimeta.