tv Book TV CSPAN July 15, 2012 12:15am-1:30am EDT
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light books that many times people read that they are all very substantive and when you read a book like a biography of walter cronkite or lyndon so tri o es women who have done so much, i think it does enrich every one of us. so i am kay bailey hutchison ad that is great summer reading. vi krg.a leinfmati hi >> now more booktv. richard sandor argues well exotic financial products a played a large role in the 2008 economic collapse, there are bet etuctdues the power of isabanr, minutes. >> thank you, thank you for that introduction in thank you offer coming. defending derivatives is not easy tese days. of bubble in security whose
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mogemean dered fmth ecathe rsancial crisis since the great depression and the president spoke recently about how speculators buying and selling futures and oil, and other form of derivative are to blame for the skyrocketing gas prices. politicians love to blame uls pe mee prs g not -- and not realizing the profits. the spanish dictator francisco franco allegedly executed speculators blaming em for high food prices. this bloody stragy worked well in the short-run. thrig t directbutitt investment and famine ensued when a drought came. this is one of the few good stories many of the few, one of the few many good tories and "good derivatives" with doctors and are who we are here to talkon. ebo,hich is on sale here at the back table, which i commend to you all is part
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memoir part users manual, part financial innovation should be required reading for anyone interested in not only te rethe ry ohir howe cnseaet gl wng poverty to water shortages. doctors and/or became interested in these markets when he was an economics professoatbereley t960' wonfand r her her -- enforcer, so i sometimes stay awake at night thinking what my version of that would be but i think i will start being a profesr. his hobbbuying and selling mmodytusl o ch economist for the chicago-based exchange which turned into a very distinguished career. the characteristic of our guest is that when he sees a problem, he asksthe following estion and that is hnke
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whr s rising interest rates, disrupting the supply of plywood uncertain grain prices, carbon emissions contributing to climate change, his instinct is always to ask can a market solve this problem? heped velop ran lpdrtiy reduce emissions causing acid rain and more rectly was incredibly successful at reducing u.s. carbon emissions equal to an ouroduced by the se of calin my view is a lot of times heroes are completely unknown to us. people like mark zuckerberg in the headlines for people like dr. sandor operate in largely im oeww eu but have aprfou vea m ig t odhi atrion to our society in the next hour or so and the lord cener
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sometimes so that you can answer questions. dr. sandor i want to start -- we did this one timeboren mrewad o, ddito me, well you know i really don't know what or if it is our. it was a good introduction but i thought we would start there before we go to what a good derivative is. what is a derivati? >> ive a na stnt whose value is determined by another financial instrument, so it is derived from. so for example, wheat fures e vas andtpc veomth price of wheat is. treasury bonds futures and options are derivatives. the actual trevor -- treasury bonds themselves are just a financialnsen hefius word i
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meant it to describe those things traded on organized exchanges for future delivery or for optional liverbaseon nheu lingu. i have in my head a farmer, there's a great picture of you in the book on a tractor somewhere in iowa or nebraska. i have in my head a farmer o inkso hielf,'mm ieouecit i e re doknf go be able to recover the amount that was necessary to plan m field and beat my family, so if prices fall dramatically i will be in bad shape. i don't really ca bout mk th. atltf so they enter into a contract, maybe there is a baker standing on the other side of the contract andhey want to lock in the pce of flour someti
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in the future and thathose two will meet somewhere in chicago ths re oes etrk e uc are not really delivered, are they? >> well in 99% of the time they are not delivered. what i would think about calling them is a form of price innchaue price of the crop at harvest six months from now than the insurance policy is worth, just when you buy insurance for a inncw yavn' nd a e o ely us a way of ensuring that the level or the prices that exist in the future are honest and fair prices. so you areghtitis he ite trinur
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for the farmer, for the baker, and its price insurance to the airlines like southwest and by jet fuel. it is price inurancef yb asahca odwh oe producer side, buyers and sellers of the market wks in that way. >> he it's interesting you mention insurance because i can insure my car, oua has,anlen that. and hopefully that will make the difference in the outcome the vatican. people in the audience cannot -- thhaenn urn my us wi teired a so-called insurable interest. i had to have a stake in the thing. is thewner of the car and back a bit on my own life, but two
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people in china inwo people in bu datprtst th m lif tdeen agt n've to be a farmer or a baker. it can be people in china or people in eure betting on the price of if we. why do we tolerate ttinof reer d'tem hat much different than betting on whether i will have another is going to win the belmont stakes. >> i thi those of us in the business as econts or aconftw different terms and hopefully the students and faculty in the audience will bear with me for a second. one of them is gambling. in gambling, there is no risk unl yobuil cck l buth casino. in futures markets, there is an
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existing risk. soybeans go up or down whether or not there ia futures market. the question is, who bears e sk wse he et process? so, the farmer may in fact want to -- his crop when he plants it. the miller, she ay want to buy the lead when she is goin use e ds d, between the buyer and seller, they have different time horizons and the speculative stands in the middle to bridge the ap, the timing gapthat cutwwhur s uyand when a seller wants to sell. sometimes it's smultaneously but mostly in between. you ne somebody to bridge that gap so tht adwe
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e r telist fair. what i mean by that is, think about a market like any other product. you want as ny buyers and as many seller said that you reduce the gthewhan re p ahewe mofwolio able to know that there is competition when we are trying to buy something and that there are many sellers and concurrently or if you are a se, w a nye y a eteri whether that is true for washing machines or automobiles or any other product, competition and the role of the merchant or speculor o is inetn, buanl f a ita economic function and helps the consumers and the
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producers to get better prices. so that seems right to me. af au wena here but what you think it explains given what you you've described you have described is an essential function for lubricating capitalist markets? would you think explains the centurieold hostilities towards thosepe? thacs petind ilewe condemned in england and going back as far as the 13th and 14th century the market insiders were people who couldn'te rted. thadei miv and information. they weren't producing things that were economic a valuable. i use the pretty woman scenio iny clses.
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th e ty women, richard gere's character, the prostitute with a heart of gold convinces them that he should build things. wh do you thinkexpainshat nts- role of speculators and middlemen? >> i thi partially because the field is arcane. everybody in the audience here knows who's -- who henry ford s. hea household name. the product lives. it's tangible, it's real. i think somebody a lot more important and anybody who has hearoflu ci. wt he godfather. and he didn't sleep with the fishes, but i would say to you,
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this exemplifies one of the problems with derivatives. lucaiocll cd fa o accounting. so what gave birth to the industrial revolution? something like a limited liabity corporation and who invented that, whonvented accoting. na temavbr aotd the public. they tend to be wholesale and not retail. so people don't know what they are. a lotof people in this audience probably know wh a paris fa as ou ghhemy business and has out dated technology. but nobody really understands what a cmo is, acl oh, and mbs. these products don't have denitiveant
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ey eellt nt they tend to be wholesale and not retail, and i think there is a better job that could be done by those of us in th academ wod,epssh government, explain the role of finance. and i think a perfect example is, last anybody think it is somethg you should not be concerd with, let's take a look at japan tates r k et c to 40,000. it's now at 12,000. i think it has been 23 years since their bubble was burst. weeczeonopini a the know that they didn't develop a financial economy, that their banking system was flawed. but you don't notic it until
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after a crisis. faie and members of the business communities that are here, the role of the financial economy is very important and falitates the production and distribution of rea procts dsce anybody imagine the country working without a checking account, without commercial banks and the process is arcan so we don't pay enough attention to it. double entry bookkeeping and such and i want to ask you about rhetoric and words. when i read your book, it is i think kind of a statement about ere luhes rtvain oth lo pe t dende kind of behind
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the curtain, the gears in the machinery of how capitalism functions. and i wanted to ask you about sort of the political rhetoric toda ca bourjois, bourjois virtues bourjois's dignity and the centralclaim in her book was asked the question about northern europe specifically, the coitions in holland retind is that there was a real profound change in the language that was used about merchants, about innotors, about middlemen and they have forgiven acertain priviled pitioiset at pe oc a e ort us u them looks up to them and there was a parallel of this in the late 1970s or the 1980s when deng xiaoping said to get rich is boring.
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that one stamentoveseo to tnko k et hha. what we thought was good is now no longer good. we are allowed to unleash an go and pursue these different objectives. what do you think of this thesis about kind of the rhericut sine and abuhepl u rinyrka d maf naal dialogue today about main capital in the news, the 1% better in the news and businessmen are not held in the highest eseem? what do you make of that? >> i do think it's a lot of or thyoeg and 1605 when the dutch east india company was formed in a limited liability corporation was invented, people uderood sp fth far east, the partnership was not a good form
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of business. people wanted to have transferable ownership and limited liability, s- [inaudible] excuse me. they understood that there was a neednd consumers wand si nsp, edt re fod, that the stock exchange at the time and the limited liability company where ownership could be transferred, all was of great greate. thinom eonomy, there is always a victim and speculation is a charged word unto itself. i think that wehave a lot of
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an yaihoi out in the book, franco haddad -- st killed the speculators and that will solve the problem. we set up astw r a ecor 'snaer bam eiv sto where there may be things that we don't necessarily approve of with income exaggerations or people getting paid when they don't perform, theoilsem nyptis, th don't want to be accused of it, so you get the public sector and the there c easily focus attention on this demn. riakisirt whatotivates venture capitalists and this is not a
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defense if bain are not in defense of pain but just look at at the united states in the last 40 years. oieeoughly in 33 years, we created 66 million new jobs. i don't know who would imagine thatfo66il, llwe from -- with new companies. alternatively, minus 3 million from the fortune top 500 coans. ynomoswe bl and 86. sorry for this micropne. coietoma
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nythsmcoie t their capital from venture capitalists. and that is the me phenomena and taught that i think we missed. the people in t venture gos e e oe finance the e,ic a there because the steve jobs doesn't want to take the financial risk. he is willing to take the product design risk that he wants want somebody else to take the financial rsk e atos t lee t money, but would you want a society that encourages iphone and google and mri dealt cawe eniod ne sies cgfr a to be very careful because somebody is a risk-taker
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is a risk-taker taking the risk aw froron in most instances to perform a really valuable function? is really funny because the loa in an uncomfortableeing globe in the west, and get their risktakers in china are celebrat. the risktakers in india are celebred. thrisktakers and brazil e br. ita ire are lauded. vietnam wants to encourage more risktakers. indonesia wants more risktakers. they are all buildingnew exchges d th areryinto deloe n os u t tn world
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with declining economies, real high unemployment rates, suffering middle classes, are rning agaitar,he uns ld growing, building their economies, providing jobs are celebrating the risktakers. the bric countries like it and the western countries n't d inic s st m and it's easy to blame the professional people who assume risk and that becomes something to be criticized during tou times. >> i just want to back before wewitc gearst b onin th difference between speculation and these kinds of markets. the commodities futures trading commission or the cftc which is the primary regulator r commodities and derivatives
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recently denied the application inxgertrg thatetoen lil vas hi would be a contract that said, if barack obama wins the presidency in november of 2012, is conact would ay dolr h n'wheh raay twe all can start selling these contracts. some people might do it just because it's fun to bet on the presidency. it might give you an incentiv to collect nformation and be fo ahereer le miha who wins the presidency could have a profound impact on their businesses. president obama has vowed to move forward with his versio of health care form. vern romy hasaide wod pe coy big hospital i might say the outcome of the election
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might have a big impact to on my business and t cft said we are not going to all this market does we can get speculation. do you think th de e igh ? >>o ss inere aiin u t want to put a price on like teorism, you know and peopleave talked about the futures markets. >> darpa got in trouble famously for the artic ri it aatndn t s heva sector said, slow down guys. i mean you know there are certain things like who are elected and terrorist events -- >> are you worri about nition or cmmoficaon at r on? >> crnha people get biases and they become self-fulfilling prophecies. maybe i can bd on terrorism and
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i lyryabthkds hithshd remain or sank like our leadership and things like that, so i don't worry about manipulation and things like that. d whispperete seulin prophecy. alternatively, that is so very different th the kinds of things that wehear today. you know, we talk about thes -i on >>hat do you mean by a good derivative? >> what is a good derivativ what is a good derivative? it is really something that provides a rich transf function and it aowsor rihatd ant totns have too somebody who is a professional risk-taker or to
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somebody who also wants to take a modest risk so the farmer. tht hnga good drivave. rive e tat hedges interests. what they share inommon is they are trading on the regulated markets. they are transparent. theyrovi ahrfe tianst importantly, they provide open prices that spurs enrepreneurs for people to change their behavior. sont, ou doingat lookat and anything in either, could decide to plant corn because it's got a better future price than soybeans does. an individualthat ses he ice ofcaet mg ,
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tvenenwa energy and now i know that windmills produce this much less carbon emissions, then i know the valuof what are renewable onrot.ts tef so we have good derivative spurring inventors, having people change planting decisions, manufacturing decions, and then w hve wt i wucaadrt o le gyo an example of something like that. and one in which which it wasn't transparent and one tat was incorrtly priced. if you look grcen0 it cost 27 basis points to buy price insurance against the default on their debt.
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in spite of the fact, in spite ta ecefed y yeom8 he present. so they had a 50% chance of defaulting and it was costing one quarter of 1% to ensure it. now that is aec yu ind against katrina, they charged to low rates, but the fact is the insurance company is paid ff in katrina. they didn't run from it. t, greece, there were no margins, the prices were transparent, as in fact greece fell deer and deperinto lems pe wout ian
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had enough of a financial guarantee to make any sense. so the bad ones are those that are not transparent and the are not ntrally cleared. there iso finciauan thm, tarne the dark as opposed to a transparent market. >> yeah i think it bears repeating what you said, that there are two really adjusting thgs there i thoht. one is the idea that people who are paicipants in r c t sialro aprice in the derivatives market like a farmer. and they don't have to imagine the value of soybeans or what they could use for or what the end-users are going to do with thsoybeans whether ey will make ndtriaprodtseat aleye noatmth should i plant soybeans, tobacco or we to look at the prices in those prices in a sime way to invade all of the value of that
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particular commodity to the farmer. as oosedto trying toier om rifra va is.ndt the other thing that i think was interesting is just this idea that prices will change activity, so the d adage the beurr lwics low prices is prices. in the prices are high they spurring investment and oil wells all of a sudden makes sense when prices are high and then there should be more production thatcomes anpe i ktse ies. >>hi here's another corollary here which i think is very important and i want to go back to the metaphor that we were talking about earlier, and then maybe talk a little bit tet a w t rl ien40
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years so maybe the students here might be able to figure out what might be interesting careers and a little bit about how you for market our response tends o be one of regulateor dweao athar cd om of line. the professor was great because he could conjure up an image in four or five strokes. >> economy one. >>cono ofl at alisn ou five and seven. mozart could do the same thing with musical notes. the constitution and its founders had great economies of kn as america's -- even the federal reserve is only 50 pages. even the commodity futures trading commission ct was ly
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150a -f, h mp to regulate a commercial bank, is over 2000 pages. it is longer then the new testent, the kan a tld am esthtrryo peculiarly that the great legends religions of the world can run on moral presence and less ords than a current regulatory reform bill? econy of e,d nsn't have that is really very important. i don't see -- i'm off to snghai saturday and we are going to talk abousome of the exchanges outthere that emonntr nc futures. they have tremendous interest in the financial futures.
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the chinese are interested in expandin th are also intested in exndinonbantal wag.itob the united states is said, get rid of it, we have no adjusting climate change. yet china will have seven separate markets in the next year or two. india willhaveth. ilihaon reek the korean parliament by a margin of 98% approved a market-based solution to global warming and two weeks vim tea trial balloon for cap-and-trade and yet we don't look at those things. and it's very very disconcerting to see that happening.
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so s aplrul ti opposed to a tool that has been in existence since 1605 in the india company, ed f nosi 1967, worked for and just rate to 1970, worked for acid rain in 1990 and get our legislators don't think this is necessari a vaableool. itotauhee smoroea. the system is just broken. >> there were two things and let me unpack that. the first one which is about the growth of legislation, let's take tt fit and come back to the environmental hin sishau rpd e e this thing, the government, there is the business of government and
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it sells rules and loopholes. that is wt t sells. beaux-arts products and it'she mocsfussth seof 1rhest counts in the united states are suburbs of washington d.c. so it is the most successful business and the ople, the politicians and lobbyists and interest groups, they figuredhis t. it's an easy way to eey mo mplex they are the batter and then we can sell loopholes as a way to get arounthem. i'm surprised that your surprise you're surprised that this thing has grown. i agree with you idealistically, boy i would like a little bit of yoerldch people, the voters tolerate the people in washington writing rules and selling substance to people have money, seems natural that this would grow. >> iil lee it he
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wyanpocal scientist of this great university that i like to ca my own to decide why it's this way. but have been working on legislation for 40 years, starti ie seties. rknt t redefined the commodity as something intangible, which allows stock index futures, interest rate futures, enronmental features all to exist. bo s heiewh wa iwagt.c d wa to see senator herman talmadge who was head of the ag committee. i called him up as a professor and he got on th phone himself unanswered. i t k od r ese rk i e s on the tax treatment of features as instruments. i worked on the clean air act of
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1990. i have just never seen the system and i don't knwhy d aanoisai llveto ose. side held -- surprised how dramatically it is changed in the last decade and a kind of model. i am stunned. don'knowf studentsnow hereut tk t saying is very interesting because you may always surprised only surprised to know that washington d.c.'s matcher area just surpass silicon valley as thehhesper-pitancomin tisreang g a town that produces rules versus apple and iphones. i mean, i am just surprised it ba, thathe higest pe aasto d.c..
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higher than silicon valley. so i don't know why, but i don't thk it's good. >> so let's talk about the rot. keuthn it will be instructive as a segue to the environment about the sulfur dioxide markets and how that was, how that is created. i think uld be instructive to hear how you've create a market out of nothing and then we will lkutbod it 'tkew. >> good, let me talk a little bit about sulfur in the duyvil talk a little bit about the environment and then i can still share and talk with y where i think the next 40 years will g and where orti rtarec iin dience and i see the young faces, what should i be looking for as the next interest in the environmental problem?
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sulfur was buildg p bi le t8s d . t oubadot remember that. acid rain was something that michael douglas made movies about called black rain. people worried about it. it was goin to be fully athe rthet. itwa goi t totly obti and basically fuel plants and power plants in the midwest burned coal so sulfur was emitted into th atmosphere. it combinedi geto m 2 wht init clouds, it created an asset. when it rained, that acid defoliated trees, ruined the riversand ild thousand of peop becseluse bo came to me and it's
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interesting because i think it follows a very simple process, a seven stage process. you ave a structural change. hodo youfiguretatl th is vague structural transfmational -- and in this case it was the big buildup of acid rain is a problem. after you get a ranormiona t, iy t aniz the commodity and you have to get that. and in this case, sulfur was standardized by saying the amount of pounds of sulfur hat aradmiedas oe nt ooalt n so it was a tone of this so to. >> you can make it into a commodity. there are lots of different kinds of corn and we will define yellow corn numberwo is the
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genericpuct. d w e g t am olf per unit consumed or produce. so we make it into a commodity. then, we don't trade soybeans or corn or ond tre evidence of a soybean warehouse receipt or ac.o.r.n. warehouse receipt oromething of that nature. so you need evidence of ownership, and thaa crted thelean rtof 1990, where utilities were given the right to emit. that all comes out of professor of rumpled coast's work who as it iiothrinote the forward to r ai between two people could lead to an optimum and
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social solution. then after that, it gets traded afthear 1990,hpen and we participated, the environmental financial products as of the first registered trade, which we bought rightstias f e itbus w installing a device to reduce the omissions and we financed it. so it wasn't really a trade. it was a financing that we did. >> so ink this makes sense to me as relative ypern in isa ie rn s ave the right to emit 100 units of this commodity, which you have defined, i canemit 100 tons. so i have a piece of paper that says, this is 0 ts,rig
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remins t o stl some technology, improve my profit, whatever it is. i sequester carbon. i have this pap -- piece of paper and i come to you and i seem smarr to venuean i emon z.c you will pay me for it and that wave we can establish a market price. >> yeah, and it's really interesting because it may sound complex to you but let me bring itw cinns s, york, who was describing to the class 1 year mission toigur ot hw one fa ess iss ac c b eliminated. the teacher decided okay, everybody in this room could
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have the rights to chew gum in class for two hours a ay. if onetarsent thea thy could sell their chewing gum rights to another student and thereby they were incentivize. in thiscae,atdent ha l tdi ft tewn, they installed a technology, a better lunch and that stopped the craving for the gum. and each time the teacher were te numberf hos th thouhargot to a very very good solution. the kids really wanted to chew a lot and they were satisfied and the incentives were put into the hands of those students that could.
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trading to do with global warminrtpe t i was challenged but like patty hearst, the stockholm syndme yorkpu a kidnapped then fall in love with the peoplwho kidnapped you. >> our students feel that way. auter] >> , iell in love was the environmental objectiv. i thouht as os to get companies to volunteer to reduce emissions. aho i was accustom to insted kiao pleasing
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futures, hedging, i was thrown out of every bank in new york. i should go back to berkeley. i am smoking mething. this isntsmn anything banks neededt do te r risk did not exist. that kind of abuse got news to advocating 80 is cetera not necessarily popular. so for these companies to take on a private contract wiout e rnme fo i thought there were ample reasons to do this. everybody said you cannot do
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challenges of the nine popular idea. doec oe aprnced i o b p pointed out historic h ontse ra the social problems could be desalt initially without the government. white house is existed mri's for-profit entities. evybodsaidt cono d with a group of companies that agreed to do this wth 700 tons 17% of the d
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as a risk taker if you don't fail lotta snue. as failure anda following cents, when the political winds change, the pre of carbon that they agreed to participate pretty much disappeared when the political winds changed. what motivated he luntrse -- volunteerism. good public-relations. companies sell altruism.
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u buy fair trade coffee, we do this voluntarily because we think there is a demand. also, they anticipate the government would pass a th-s tileradebldve astuno h l terth financial engineering. and say these other reductions that all have been because when they pass the and it w can lobbied to pr.ltore than what we need it a combination of all of them. first category foundin
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member wasaxter. thepoids and not worry of shifts ohof malaria and others? it was their responsibility. others did think it was coming. although it is a hard reach, they wanted to be a part of it. we had an expression with the chicago climate excange iyu o ah e ue onhe menu. [laughter] >> if you want to do with the problem you better be there otherwise you are the big ilit m
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thought it was the right thing to do. ford thought it was good for competitive reasons. it would exist in eurpe and they wld hve apply it and f they could er er mgan d then they could use those tools for france and germany with manufacturing plants. motorola, semiconductors, i am, until, they could act if the chips with the different acid that was not as potent with the same results and lower emissions and make profits. it was dien vre eo. healthvault there wanted to participate because of that reason.
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prant wswt go into an end desert to take the recreational shower. water is a scarceu ca costs. >> i have a little bit of owedgehat the wawate is aoc ie er pocsis ar buho m water they can take from the colorado river. we end of with a tragedy of a common problem. pocsbere tetr better way? >> another area there are
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to good an to do wl ey o radictory as the premier says. it is not a bad thing. financial incentives to achie social objectives are very worthwhile. >> another great story is helping indianfamilies amal mrolv wie young women to go to school retake it granted and because of the financial trading and prodts of methe gest.e s th exp.
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speculion of oil, food products, a lot of this to hurtf gro si. indonesia, a vietnam,for the students going oward it still a good business? or is the 30 years below-market over? nog w over thereat question. last few years at the same rate. the airline traffic 1970 only grew at to 5%. tomol3%i aee ed esi
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i do believe it is a good business with new we he o fid contracts of and ak -- ntellec oper so it is a good business if you'll be in the developing world if you are part of a new product and follow the developments whether madison water or energy with big oppounitieshntfsiabby believe in american exceptional loathsome and we have these crisis from college the japanese
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there are short-term requirements for poiticians pbcopoon if you are itr senator with the election cycle is not the same of the prability of the hurricane or more an earthquake. you enact in the best interest every s yrs. yu arornu have quarterly earnings. you may not be interested to invent something that takes eagsnoc prices?e investo
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harris basically eight imperfections in both marks because of short-term and long-term horizon sdre onlwopze. e ma sio e top s vem ts another way in the corporate world is to privatize. those wo don't have to do investors. ot ae i the implications but they are disappearing because of over egulation over
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