>> if america is to be a great nation, this dream come true. >> let freedom ring from the alleghenies of pennsylvania and the snowcapped rockies of colorado. let freedom ring from the coast of california. let freedom ring from georgia. let freedom ring from lookout mountain of tennessee. let freedom ring throughout long-held mississippi. >> let freedom ring.

let freedom ring from every state and city. [cheers] [applause] >> he will be able to stand up with all of god's children. black and white and protestant and jewish and all together. [children chanting] [applause] >> i, barack obama, do solemnly

swear. >> this weekend presidential inauguration as president obama begins his second term. the official swearing-in ceremony at the right house shortly before noon eastern. it begins with a look back at the president's inaugural address in 2009. other inaugural festivities including the capital luncheon in the parade will start at and be covered on monday on c-span. join the conversation on facebook and facebook.com/c-span and on twitter. >> next, scientific and government health officials discussed the economic impact of drought. researchers say that climate change will affect the magnitude and severity of future droughts.

this is one hour. >> we now have had two very international events, one international and domestic. we are now going to move to a time that moves somewhat more slow, the issue of drought. we had a situation where we begin about one fifth of the situation of drought. by september, three fifths of the united states was in a situation of drought. from crops failed. estimates of crops insurance range from $30 billion up to

$40 billion. the prices went up. consumers impacted not just in the united states, but around the world. in 2011 we had a horrific drought in florida. and many of you who are watching were watching the news coverage were watching impact particularly on newborns and children and could not have been more moved profoundly by what he saw. these are the innocent and most deserving victims. at the same time, we had another drought situation. the impact was significantly less for good reason. we have a research scientist with us from the u.s. geological

survey. when he spoke, use one of the most amazing and inspirational that we had heard. second we have -- forgive me for my family -- he is part of the united nations convention. a huge issue. and globally, this is one of the big ones. and requires a lot of attention. and we have climate change

review by the university of nebraska at lincoln. finally, one of my favorite people who has worked along side for many years, veronica johnson. veronica is a news person for nbc. there was a time when the news people are more likely not to have the background. she is of a new generation of meteorologists who not only have great credentials but a study of science on an ongoing basis. she is a phenomenal scientist.

onhak you. >> this session we really want to get you thinking. let me talk about journalists that we have today. >> okay, that's a pretty good number. we want to get everyone thinking about droughts in this discussion. you think that we can have a mega-drought? we saw how bad 2012 was in areas of the midwest and parts of the country. what about policy? do you think that we are doing enough? and what about the impact of drought on social marginalization? as we go forth, we are going to be taking some kick off

questions and you will notice that there are some index cards underneath your chair. if you can periodically throughout the session, right on some of the questions that you have and some will be collecting them we will get those questions answered in a timely a fashion as possible. how are these things related to water scarcity? >> thank you very much for having us here. from the standpoint of the definitions -- [inaudible]

when we speak about aridity, it is really how much moisture evaporators into the atmosphere. rain might fall that it disappears very quickly over the long-term there is an interesting component i would like to add a map context. it is a relatively contextually based issue. what i mean is that it's very much determined by human action

and expectation and how much we withdraw and it is a trade-off between supply and demand. when we put drought on arab land, that is fine from the standpoint of doing that during the dry season. what you produce is a surprise in the system. >> this next question relates to africa. africa is the most drought stricken and vulnerable region of the world. what are the factors that make it so vulnerable? speak a little bit about that. and also its impacts as well. yes, it's true that africa is

the most drought stricken region of the world. seven out of the 10 areas in africa have been affected by drought. it depends on the system and in africa, most of the agriculture, it is affected by droughts. [inaudible] in africa, you have of this is used in africa. it can appear in thailand and

you have very difficult contexts and unfortunately, this was compounded by government breakdown. so unfortunately again, when drought is predicted and you have a breakdown, nothing is done. >> thank you. >> i think most people would agree that climate change is real and we know that it's happening. we have seen it, we have seen its effect. how will climate change affect the drought impact and with that, creasing aridity and droughts. >> well, it's just that when you have rising temperatures, you have rising rates of aridity and

that is the first way to explain it. it affects not just the magnitude of drought, but severity and also its duration. when you have warmer temperatures come you, you get less snowfall. with less snowfall you get moderated throughout the year, you get more snow melting off very quickly and you don't have any remaining for each higher layer in the summer. there there is a magnification of the process. so you have as the sun heats the

atmosphere around the equator, you get circulation cells that become -- they are rising warm air that condense all the moisture out of it and that becomes falling dry or cool air or defending your over broader regions and perhaps further tools towards the poles. those are things that are being predicted for climate change modeling. so it becomes more intense. where we get cold descending air is where we have a lot of desert in the world. those deserts could change in their position.

those are the ways that we talk a little bit about modeling and i'd like to get back to modeling. maybe some of you have questions about drought modeling as well. for the professor of the school of natural resources, one thing we haven't talked about is preparedness. the united states, as i mentioned, the 2012 the nation's midsection of the midwest experienced severe drought over the last decade. all the regions of the country have been affected. many of you live in washington dc and as you see, we just haven't had much of a winter or a snowfall. it's been too long. historically what has been this country's approach to drought management? what is our current level of preparedness? do you feel there will be a severe drought that will happen in 2013? >> first of all, how many are

aware that we are still in a drought? well, that's good. building awareness is really a key factor in trying to address this issue. historically the way we have dealt with this in the united states is through crisis management. it is amazing that drought, even though it takes a long time to develop, it sneaks up on people. it is commonly referred to as a phenomenon. it's hard to know when the drought began the difficult to know when it ends. in terms of our current level of preparedness, one way to express this would be on a scale of one to 10, where are we? well, inc. in the united states, we might be about a five. we have a long way to go. we've made a lot of progress, the program that roger directs

was noaa and is an important step forward. are we going to have to deal with the this with longer duration or severity of future? >> let's talk a little bit about what you think makes this plan

upfront? if there are no great drought models out there, then how can we tackle this and be more proactive? >> there are a number of things that we need to do. we certainly need to invest in research that is going to improve the lead time for forecast. as i said previously, to take a long time to develop. it is important to have lead times of six months or more in terms of forecast. if you know that there is a high probability in the region and drought will develop, hopefully there will be preparedness plans in place in government actions that are going to move us towards putting in place the mitigation measures, the measures that are going to reduce impacts. there are some states in the united states that have gone to great lengths and have invested a lot of resources and preparedness planning. those models are transferable to other states that are more

reactive in nature. we certainly need to continue to work to improve early warning systems, as i mentioned before. as a combination of long lead times and early warning systems, which are very comprehensive, the one thing about drought is that it is important with rainfall and temperature an important and important to know what's happening in the entire water supply system. we need to know the status of groundwater and stream and snowpack in all of those things that feed into what will be defined as a severe drought. >> what would help make it better. >> one of things would be monitoring of the remote areas of this country as well as other parts of the world. so the we have an idea if you

only get 8 inches of rainfall per year and you lose two more inches because of increasing temperatures, those are places where we are likely to see places change quickly. i also believe that drought is a field where we need more research. [inaudible] unfortunately nothing has been

done to the drought leading to famine and a crisis. we have issues of drought where early action has provided food and not contracts. a thousand dollars per person. [inaudible] it has been very hard to provide them food. in some nations in africa, there are issues even in kenya. i think more needs to be done for preparedness and for early

action. unfortunately, the question is why isn't that the early morning formation, i think it is because the drought is not a charismatic type of disaster. it has little impact and we are experiencing more frequent droughts and taking action on early warning. because we are concerned about taking action. it is something that many don't like. and i think that one might say, why should we act early?

we put all this together and we have some reasons why early warning is not the same as early action. >> thank you. this issue crosses everything you're going to hear. why is it that information about the future is not the thing that makes us act? this is very critical. things that they are planning to -- not all areas of the world are projected to become trite -- then we are asking about our capabilities of dealing with these mechanisms.

we have reservoir systems, irrigation systems and when the drought began to become more severe and we find ourselves with an impact. so what does it take? dictate the use of this event to engage the public and leadership at the same time. but as analysts have said, it is a collaborative research to put this into practice on an ongoing basis. last thing to put out a research project when somebody comes back three years later and says, you had a drought, which is usually

how it operates. so has to be much more active in terms of collaborative framework between research and management. that being said, we also know the things we should be doing. the very same things that we ask people to do during a drought or what we asked them to do before a drought. why is that critical to know? well, drought is not like other natural disasters. it could be a season or multiple years and the cumulative risk is very similar -- the thing that is deceptive. we think we know what's happening. there's an old saying where it talks about uncertainty being

probably don't know, but what you believe about the past and what your which are capabilities that might not apply to the future. >> how many of you here think that the media, whether print or broadcast, does enough to communicate when we are still in a drought? let's see a show of hands. >> okay, clearly that is part of the link that we need to all communicate better and i would argue that would be state agencies as well. this question goes to west texas. it will be entering into its third year of severe drought. little has been done to prepare for long-term drought. what should be done to address

this type of situation? >> well, this is not only an issue of west texas, it is an issue for most of the country. in regards to the drought issue, drought affects every part of this country and there is a tendency to think that drought is a western issue. but we have seen that it has become very severe in places on the east coast, the southeast, south central and so forth. it's not just a western issue. in the case of west texas and regions throughout the country, it is very important that states put in place proactive risk reduction plan to deal with droughts. this means a cascade from the state level down to the local

level so that local communities are also putting in place contingency plans or water shortage plans. my philosophy, however, is that a lot of this has to begin at the national level. the federal government and the agencies of the federal government that are so responsible for monitoring and management and responding to emergencies and etc. -- they must follow this risk reduction approach when it comes to drought. currently we deal with this is crisis management and we are talking about relief that increases vulnerability in the long-term, because it promotes dependence on government rather than self-reliance. so we need to find ways to instill that process in this area. i think it begins with drought

policies. .. and then, the next year it just went right back to drought conditions again. it's an area where water shortages were common to begin with, but the drought mitigation plans are typical of many drought mitigation plans actually, that you bring in water to the areas that are being impacted then have reduced

water supply, that you bring in some put mental hay for livestock because that is a big part of the economy here. and what has happened over the years is essentially there is only so much hay and water you can haul. pretty soon people had to do something with their livestock and they were in such poor condition that by the time they realized that over 30,000 cattle died. allotted times drought mitigation plans will decline for two or three years so we have to think about the way we plan for droughts in what we do. >> there are two more questions right there. this one i want to go to roger. do you think that we will be seeing mega-droughts taking place in more parts of the country and then we are going to hit back on a policy question. >> the answer to that is most

likely, but the reason why it is most likely because it happened in the past. during the years 900 to 12 or 1300 we had extended periods of drought in the colorado basin, anywhere from 60 to 100 years in the record. when we have an increasing temperature it does not necessarily cause a drought, but it exacerbates the conditions related to drought for the reasons i mentioned related to aridity. during 2004, 2005, the winter we had 100% snowpack in the colorado basin. the runoff was 70% expected as it was springtime was so one. this was the warmest year on record and the warmest spring on record. they only hear in which we have seen as large an area of the

nation covered in moderate to severe drought for more than three months was 1934. not even during the 1950s was that the case and it was a decade. from the standpoint of increasing the severity of drought i think increasing temperatures will definitely have an impact. from the standpoint of whether or not these types of droughts and events have occurred in the past, they have. and the result the laws of chance simply tell us that they will happen again. >> before we get to that polly quest -- policy question this goes with what we addressed and margaret your case study and this is a question from ellen. the question is are you a aware of any case studies where particular communities actually did take a proactive approach toward drought management, and

where it worked and where we could take a look at that case study and apply it elsewhere? margaret? >> i guess i would have to go back to historic times, because as i mentioned before i work in the navajo communities and so i know a lot about the way people cope through a drought before reservation lands were established. and one of the things that people did was they were more aware of how the ecosystem operated and would move according to what the current conditions work, they would move their livestock so they were more flexible and the permitting system and the types of things we have in place now as far as land and where a person lives have essentially put their ears in the way, so that people

cannot use the old systems that they use to cope with drought. so there are instances in native american culture before colonialization where we know people coped with drought. there were times when they actually didn't make it through drought such the on the saucy famine in the southwest but even those people have lived through many many droughts for hundreds of years before they had problems during that mega-drought. >> i think don has a response here. >> well in terms of the current situation, you can look at the state of colorado for example. the state of colorado is doing quite an effort at the moment to revise its state drought plan. one of the questions we normally get from states that are looking

either to develop a drought plan or to revise their current drought plan is can you tell me a few states that i can look to as models in terms of the type of drought contingency planning they have been doing that we can try to adapt to our situation. if you go to the drought drought mitigation centers web site, you can click on all of the states and you can find out who is in charge charge and what their task forces and so on. so there are models out there. an interesting case study however is the drought mitigation center, myself and some of my staff and several other colleagues, worked with the state of georgia to develop a drought plan earlier in this century so around 2000, 2,000,002 and so forth, in response to recurring drought. a very detailed drought mitigation plan was put together for the state of georgia.

they then went out out of drought and they came back in around 2005, 2006 and i was invited to come down and talk to a group at lunch, several hundred people, about the drought conditions in the state was experiencing. i asked for a show of hands, how many in the audience most of the people from the atlanta area were not aware that the stated of georgia had a drought plan and three hands went up. there is a case where they developed a drought plan but it was never implemented as it became wet. so it sat on the shelf until people were unaware. >> some people are unaware too the meteorological droughts in in the agricultural the agricultural droughts of the maaco oh we have gotten some rain and we have been doing okay for the last 30 days and we are fine when that is not the case. >> i think it's important going back to roger's definition to start with, droughts are the extended period of the efficiency of precipitation can

be exacerbated by high winds and high temperatures and low relative humidity and so forth. so it's this combination of intensity and duration but the real key is the fact that the intensity and duration over period of time begins to impact on the environment and on people and so that's when you get into agricultural drought, to hydrological drought and there's another type of drought sometimes referred to which is the socioeconomic drought which is kind of a supply and demand thing. so there gets to be a lot of confusion sometimes between what is and agricultural drought and a hydrologic drought. in the minds of the public but i would also say in the minds of some researchers and scientists. >> roger you you live right there in colorado. quite a few months out of the year so you are in a state with -- if you wanted to make a comment on that?

>> from the standpoint of the state of colorado, one of the things as other states as don has mentioned is the idea of linking the drought plan to the other planning mechanisms that are there. the links between the drought plan and the water resources plan in many cases are very tenuous. one of the few states that was trying to make a link between the long-term use of the aquifer and its drought plan that don and others help develop is -- as well. to speak in terms of where people actually try to put things into place up front to help reduce the future disaster risk, there are several cases from around the world. one that comes to mind right away as the country of bolivia which has put into place a water demand management strategy for its industry. from that standpoint, we have to ask how much does conservation really get us in terms of its? is it just personal virtue?

i coined that phrase. some of you might remember it. anyway, the idea though is where can those savings at her? we think it's 30 to 35% without reducing the quality of life. this is a major perception that don and others have pointed out for a long time, that the actions taken to stave off disaster risk did not necessarily have to negatively impact the quality of life as we do not fully understand the cost of inaction. so what we do instead is come back in an emergency management frame. the problem with that is if the background is changing in certain places are becoming more arid emergency management does not get you out of it. i can actually hurt the

catastrophic situation. >> i'm going to let this question go to luc. what about policy that maybe it's a little harder, policy and programs. this question is submitted by julie maxwell of the epa. how can policies and program support local environmental knowledge in adaptive capacities to respond to droughts? we need more policy in place. >> we need more policy. some of the policies are undermining the capacity so sometimes we need policy. let me give you an example of some of the committee's committees working in the saharan in southwest or east south of moradi. in the last two decades and a half from the late 80s some

committees have been improving and restoring the land. this movement which is a grassroots level movement has been coined as -- and it ended up restoring up to 5 million acres of land. as a matter fact, i think it was two years ago when those communities have been sufficient food security. so the difference is -- is contributing to those types of success stories. beyond that policy contributes to the knowledge sharing. one of the schemes of knowledge sharing is working in that region and those regions is farmer to farmer knowledge sharing, because farmers do

trust farmers and when you take a farmer that is successful and you bring him to a community where people are in need of the lessons they have learned of course we listen to him. on youtube you will see a very interesting documentary. the title might be misleading because it's about avoiding conditions. yakked, we need to be humble enough when we want to design policy to learn from what is working at the grassroots level. >> margaret, you mentioned a little bit about parts of the southwest that you have worked with. talk a little bit about monitoring it in early warnings. what about the management of land? what can be done differently to make better use of their brain that does fall?

if you could talk a little bit more in specifics. 's been making better use of the rain that does fall? i guess one of the things that we can't control is how much rain we get. but we can control how we use the water that we have. again, again now i have probably more examples of how this has not worked and how it has. in some of the arid parts of arizona when the 1930s drought hit, people were having trouble again with livestock and what they did was they drove a -- drilled a number of shallow wells to pump water up to the surface and what coincided with that water pump age and the use of the water for livestock was a decreasing aridity of the area

because a sense of what it did was it took the very limited water resource and people didn't understand how limited it was. essentially pumping it up to the surface where it would evaporate away and be used up very quickly. so it took what limited water supplies and use them very quickly. other things we need to think about too though our what we use our water for. is it really the wisest use of our water for recreation or is it for drinking, or is it for swimming pools? so we have to start thinking about what our society wants and what we value. >> sounds like this kind of goes to the conservation part of it that we addressed as well and what is most important u.s. as we look at those communities that will be hit more and more by drought over the coming

years. i have a question regarding the national disaster recovery framework. before i put this question to you don wilhite let me see a show of hands in the audience. how many of you think that our country does an adequate job at addressing droughts? help any of you think we do a good job and how many of you think we do it great? lets at the low-end first. how many of you think that we do a fair job? how many of you think that we do a good job? and, great? again we have more to do. last fall the president activated the national disaster recovery framework throughout the united states.

mr. wilhite, what has happened since then? >> well, one of the key difficulties of government whether it's national government or state government in dealing with drought is coordination of the various agencies and so forth of that government on the drought issue, because they'll have different responsibilities. so the disaster recovery program was an attempt to coordinate the activities of the federal agencies to focus their efforts to make sure that i think all of the key issues were being addressed and i think this has been a very positive movement on the part of this administration. this is really the first time that i know of that this has happened. so i think you saw a vast improvement in terms of the delivery of response, sir versus in different programs, reduction in the amount of time that it took to designate areas as

eligible for disaster assistance. for example through the u.s. department of agriculture, so these were all positive steps. once again it's reactive. so we need to put in place more proactive measures that hopefully will cause us to look at what the impact of droughts are in advance and try to put in place risk reduction measures that will lessen those impacts when droughts occur. so the role for the federal or state agencies in the case of drought preparedness plans would tend to change. it would shift to a more provac if set of measures rather than just reactive. there is always the need for response and reaction because you can't anticipate everything but there are a lot of things based on the history of drought and its impacts that we can understand. >> don, you mentioned some areas

that states have been proactive in planning. those states that can serve as models as being good examples. what states have done well and have shown to be good models if you could recap that? >> okay. three of the key areas that the states need to address as part of their mitigation plan. one is monitoring early warning information system. and so quite a few states have really improved their monitoring of the water supply system. for a number of different reasons but one is to have a better handle on drought, where it's occurring and where is emerging and what are the concerns coming up in terms of regions of the state that are going to be affected. so you see a lot of examples

where early warning monitoring has been improved, trying to improve the information flow between different agencies of government with the federal government as well to make sure that this information is getting out to people. another key element of these drought plans which you have seen in arizona, new mexico has done some work in this area and colorado, nebraska, george and so forth, is in the area of vulnerability or risk assessment. is important to know what sectors and population groups in which parts of the state are most vulnerable to drought and you can determine this by looking at the impact of recent droughts. so you see where the impacts are occurring, what communities are most at risk with regards to the water supply and then you try to address those vulnerabilities. so that is another key point. went to identify those vulnerabilities, another component of, a third component

is putting into place proactive measures or actions that will actually lead to reduction in the impacts of those vulnerable areas with those vulnerable sectors and so forth. >> as we work our way back up i'm taking another question here from the audience, one of our cards. we often discuss the physical environment of factors that need to be monitored or modeled and planned against. margaret, what are the social human aspects and what do you feel are the most critical issues in this area? >> well, there are areas of the u.s. and other countries where there are very vulnerable populations because they are marginalized. you mentioned the segments of the population that are more marginalized are more vulnerable. part of this is because there is sponse, resources foror monitoring but also in general a lack of alternatives because of

economic constraints for instance. so, there are people who will continue to live a specific lifestyle because they are economically dependent on getting the return from that lifestyle agriculturally speaking. they are worried about eating tomorrow board -- more than they are worried about the drought three months from now. they are constrained about worrying about eating tomorrow and what is going to happen three months from now so their populations again there are are elderly people who have never been to school and they don't speak english. and they have no other place to go. they can't move to a different part of the country and take up a different kind of lifestyle. and so when it gets really dry

and they are limited in their water resources, there's a great deal of hardship and a lot of impacts that take place. one, they have to go farther and father and pay more and more to get water. their livestock a lot of times don't make it that they are dependent on their livestock for food and sustenance and keeping the family going. so even when they see the conditions around them changing, they really don't have the resources to change with it. so even if there is a forecast saying next year is going to be dried, they really don't have the alternatives out there to change. that is how the certification process takes place, when people really don't have the alternative flexibility and the resources to do what they need to do to cope with the drought, so they keep doing the things they know are going to damage

the system and their future prospects but they have really no other alternative. >> it seems like we are going back to policy. roger? >> one of the things to keep in mind when we talk about waterman we should be monitoring and the people on this panel know quite a bit about that, when we asked the question what other types of indicators we should be monitoring of course economics comes to bear. we nook about hurricane sandy. does anyone have an estimate of what the drought of 2012 s. costa so far? the issue is within agriculture loaned the estimate from usd is almost $50 billion within agriculture loan. what ends up happening and don and others can tell you from work done at the center is when we ask where those impacts coming from? the agricultural impacts constituted about 25% of the

total number reported impacts that we have seen. water resources, energy, wildfire, and one of the things you heard in the last discussion and in this one, of the under appreciated aspect of the impact of drought. the loss of ecosystem services as a supporter and supply tourism recreation clean water and clear air. we do not have any sense of what the cost of those multiple impacts are. we know a bit about the insured impacts from agriculture, so therefore what needs to be considered? the indicator that margaret is saying about how people are economically impacted by this critically how they are socially impacted. if we are to put plans into place, we have to ask how do you know they are working? the indicators include the

development of peoples capacity to respond. not just the number of plans but what in the plans allows the inclusion of information? that is the kind of indicator, the combination of the physical system and the social and economic that also the capacity engaged for decision-making. that is three aspects that we are familiar with. john powell said in the late 1800's, if you're going to develop the colorado system you're going to overuse it. it. but do you know what? we are there. it's been more than 100 years and the system is provided the water for the need in which it was designed. those needs have changed. that is what we haven't realized. the other losses are in fact adding up to the cost. the benefits of recreation in late powell are now equal to the benefits of hydropower. so we have to keep in mind these

costs scale impacts but also a map onto the capabilities of people to respond. type of plan, the impacts we put in place like the grazing act of 1934 was the best thing. their there are histories of good intervention. the question is can we address them? >> we have three more minutes so what i would like to go is go down the panel and i would like for the rest of the panel to give a minute on what you feel is the best plan of attack them in the coming years to deal with this drought and drought mitigation and its impact on society. >> thank you. the impact is not only migration leading to conflict. you can see it in the sub-saharan and you can see it in northern kenya where drought is causing migration and

therefore more competition over resources. so the way to address it is you have just said it is too the capacity of the people to respond. to respond -- the should be and national drought policies of the national level with policies made available at the local level. they should be a commonly driven to ensure that they are capable whenever information is provided to them to respond. >> margaret? >> i think it would really help first of all to help increase the capacity for people to respond. is everybody it said, i think that is very key but also understanding what our vulnerabilities are and what the

limits are to the ecosystems that we are living and because many of them are resource limited such as the southwestern u.s.. yet that is an area that large is growing population that we have in the country. so there is a crossroads that we are approaching because we are not planning for the limitations of the resources that we have. >> well, one of the key elements i think in dealing with drought in the future. drought policy is something that is received quite a bit of attention in the past. but there hasn't been a lot of drought policy developing at the national level in countries throughout the world. so the very positive thing that is happening now which hopefully will bear fruit in the next few years is the world meteorological organization in combination with unc cd, luc's

organization and 15 other organizations including noaa and the united states have been working to plan a high-level meeting on national drought policy that is going to be held in geneva switzerland in mid-march of this year. and i've been working with that group to organize that particular meeting. the goal there is to provide a framework that national governments throughout the world can use to develop a national drought policy and adapted to their particulaparticula r needs. what we are trying to provide for a set of best practices that they can use an employee to reduce the impacts of future drought because the concern about drought in the future is highly related to the issue of climate change and what's going to happen to the frequencies and severities and duration of those events. >> like so many things in our world we really do need to on this issue built better