we're still asking where are th jobs. we need ckto get americans backc work. can't get americans back to work if you keep on islands or mountains and mountains and mountains of debt. regulations. but that's a fight for another day.ther d. income-based payment systems we didn't touch in our bill. there's some interesting proposals we want to look it. right now with this bill we're just going to determine who's going to set interest rates.t, politicians here or the market. so here' washington should be in charge of setting interest rates for student loans. washington should be in the business of creating c confusion and uncertainty for student loan borrowers. and washington cannot agree to long-term solution that was are the bestan interest of the afree students and taxpayers, i think we need otot keep working to that. it's pointed out that the senate will act. well, for many of us in this body that's not a lot of news. but july 1 is still july 1 and

there's an incentive over there and i believe1 the senate must take take action and i look forward to working with them to achieve the long-term solution that i ie think that we all need to see. it's pointed out that we have a variable rate, and the president has a variable rate but then hid fixes. yo graduate if you're at a low interest environment you can thh consolidate those loans and fix them for the duration, however longer taking to pay off those o loans. with a high interest rate you may not want to do that together claimed you've already got a fixed rate.we belie we we believe we can work together. the only way we can continue tol work together to solve this is to pass this legislation. pass it today. i urge my colleagues to reject the failed status quo and

embrace a responsible long-term solution on behalf of students, families and hard-working american taxpayers. taayers. i urge my colleagues support smart solutions for students act and the yield back the balance th >> all time for debate is expired. previous question ordered on the bill, questions on encroachment and third reading of the bill. those in favor say i go. thos of the post said.d read the ayes have itin. third reading. bill >> a bill to amend the higher 15 education act of 1965 toh establish interest rates for new loans made on or after july 1, 2013. >> for all purposes, the gentleman from arizona speechreo recognition. at the d >> mr. speaker? ge the ntbills because i am. >> the clerk will report the motion.ifies. >> missed some of arizona, pick me on education and thehe workforce with instructions to r report the same back to the house forth with with the following amendment.

redesignate section three as as secti sectionon four, insert after section two the following new tion section. section three, protecting students from the teaser interest rates that led to higherhi long-term costs to nothing in this act so be construed construed to come one come off as a student or parent borrowere to be charged a teaser interest rate that entices the borrower with an initially low interest rate that subsequently skyrockets dramatically rate on a loa federal student loan forn the student.n increa two, authorized an increase in d the total cost of post secondary education for students. three, authorized also advertising -- >> mr. speaker?loan -- spent the clerk will suspend. >> i reserve a point of order. >> point of order is reserved. i the clerk will continue spent authorized false advertising that hides the true cost of any federal student loan to student- or a parent borrower including

possible interest rate increases from year to year.e total the total amount of interest that a borrower may owe on such loan and a number of years thatm a borrower may takaye to be that such loans or, for, limit the authority of the secretary of education to include in any disclosure related to interest rates that a secretary is provie required to provide to a bor borrower for a loan made under part b of the higher education act of 1965, 20 usc, 10878, or at prior to the disbursement of such loan. an explanation that thete of int applicable rate of interest tore the loan is a vital interest rate and how such a bearable rate may affect the borrowers total cost of attending an institution of higher education or, b, estimations on the total amount of interest payments that -- [inaudible]>> i a >> there is no objection.e the clerk will suspend.

pursuant to the rule, the gentleman from arizona is recognized fsuor five minutes ia support of promotion. >> thank you, mr. speaker. i yield myself as much time as : may consume.r. this is a final amendment to the bill and will not kill it or send it back to committee. backe i oppose h.r. 1911, while it'sso bad enough for student loanan interest rates are set to double on july 1, this bill actually makes interest loan rates even worse for our students. rates t by allying interest rates to rise america on th e loans, thim bill steal some students and forces them to pay for congress as a debt that's absolutely unacceptable. the higher interest rates in this bill will force graduates who are just beginning to plan their lives. estited estimated added $1200 each yearr to the government over five years. that's in addition to what they are already expecting to pay. e

and not only that, the interest rate is not guaranteed so they even p can't even plan for this badla news. b when you buy a car you know what your interest rate will be for the life of the loan.ofre gradue future graduates who are starting a family, looking for work, and helping to contribute to our communities, thesesame graduates should at least have the same reassurance about their investment in their hard work ay they would have when buying aits car.top it is congresses duty to stopm student loan interest rates fro increasing by july 1, and it ise outrageous that we would force students to pay for the debt s'at congress has created. foros hard-working students shouldn't have to pay for congresses a mistake.goy two weeks ago i shared the story of one of my students at arizona state university, he and his thro college to pay for school and put food on the table for their for th kids. he also took out student loans in order to make it.

he has said he and his wife thah won't pay for decades to come. will pay students f of mine will make abt $30,000 a year when entering thn workforce they can't afford to pay down congresses debt ineir addition to taking care of their families. when he asked me to tellngress t congress not to make matters worse for families like his, anh then congress responds with thid so-called solution, we have fail failed him and his family.recomt my motion to recommit would helm students. my amendment includes a truth in sk rates. teaser rates start but within skyrocket without warning andanf costs thousands of dollars more for students in the future.nt ar this amendment also requires the government to tell students ther true cost of their loans,eir including the amount of their nterest payments.allows sdents this amendment allows students to plan for the future.r, i mr. speaker, i yield to the

gentleman from california, calir coratula >> i want to congratulate theng gentlewoman for offering this motion to recommit. i think she goes right to the heart of tt the matter, and thas the uncertainty that is being presented by the legislation ong the floorislati today. other other members tried to do with this issue of uncertainty. t mr. peck from nevada try to deal with this by making, by providing an incentive for thosd students who borrowed money and able were able to pay for years on a steady payments to give ance incentive to continue to dont at. that. mr. rice the succulent sought tr have a lower rate. lower ra isnt this lower rate is an chiseled in granite. this isn't the market ra rate. republ this is a choice the republican members of the committee choose these rates. he thought in this time couldn't have a't w lower rate begin, bu. rules committee turned that out. president obama's plan wasurnedt offered and they turned. that. so now we're stuck and that's'sw whye we need this motion to to recommit. to do as the gentlewoman from arizona has said, to protect thi

students from the escalation of their interest rates go tofrom t protect the students fromhe the escalation of the cost of college. these are families of students. companies and colleges create t calculated to try to show students what it will cost over this four years.f this legislation takes all of that certainty out for families. have a set money aside, how they those money. callators those calculators don't workrat. with his agreeable rate.e can go this variable rate can go on and on and on. that's the problem here. choic this is a big choice for most families. i appreciate for some families it's not ideal. they've got enough money.ere i m from where i live my families me come people around to mybig choe neighbors, this is a big choice to make a t commitment, to finae the education of your children and that's what this motion too recommit, the gentlewoman from arizona so afford to truth in students, for amer

truth inic lending for america's families and to get rid of thewl rates that which is punished them and crushed them into the future as they graduate fromm college and they seek to participate in the americanpate economy in a career of their choice, and the talent that wea needed as a nation and i want to thank the gentlewoman so very the much spare time is expired.sp gentlemen fromntle minnesota, so maintains point of order? >> mr. speaker, i would like to withdraw my poinult of order sp gentleman withdraw this point o order.n the gentleman isop recognized. t thank you, mr. speaker. ge we are trying to get the long-term solution on how student loan interest rates are set.ar se i believe the process for that, past the underlying legislation or, talk to her senater colleagues, get them to act soa that we canso come together and come to long-term solution. the gentlelady's motion puts s washington's quarterback inqu tn

middle of setting student loan it's it's the wrong thing to do.urgeu i urge my colleagues to vote no on the motion and vote yes on the underlying bill and i yield back. >> the national oceanic and atmospheric administration is predicting an above normal and possibly extreme act of 2013 hurricane season. this briefing is 45 minutes. >> good afternoon and welcome to the noaa center for weather and climate tradition as you've had a chance to look around, you can see how new and beautiful this building is. we've been here since august of last year. this is the operations area for us, the weather prediction center and other national centers, and it's from this area basically, it's one of the nerve centers for the entire national

weather service. and, obviously, these forecasts played a critical role all year long including hurricane season. and while i'm going to leave it to others to talk about the actual prediction for the upcoming hurricane season, i want to give it a few words about some exciting developments which are happening right now. at the front end of a series of supercomputer upgrades that will begin this summer. with a more powerful operational computer we expect to run more detailed models that will help us produce even more accurate forecasts of hurricanes and extreme events throughout the year. the improved weather forecast will also help us provide people with the information vital to building a weather ready nation. with us today, ma sitting in the front row is joseph nimmich, acting associate administrator

for the office of response and recovery. as he associated administered, he is responsible for directing fema's response, recovery and logistic direction is -- directives as was the office of federal disaster coordination. also with us today, to give us the 2013 hurricane season outlook is doctor kathryn sullivan who's the acting undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and the acting noaa administered. dr. sullivan played noaa, the agency response from washington nation's climate weather oceans, fisheries and coast. dr. sullivan is a distinguished scientist as well as a former astronaut and the first american woman to walk in space. so here with the 2013 hurricane season, please help me welcome dr. sullivan. [applause] >> thank you. as he said he spent many years making this kind of reality, 13

of them, by council have and really it's a wonderful tribute to you, fabulous and powerful new center, but really quite attribute. emblematic, also i think of the dedication of noaa's weather forecasting and climate experts, the people who work here day in and day out, affecting lives and life as a people across our entire nation. our hearts first of all go out, take a moment to the people in the community in oklahoma who, as we joined here today to talk about hurricanes are still recovering from monday's devastating tornadoes. the "60 minutes" lead time was two minutes longer than the average performs but it's also testament to the dedicated staff and the talents of noaa special netherworld of service. in 1990 just for comparison the average warning time was just five minutes. come a long way in a short time. i would also like to thank wayne higgins, the acting director was

also with us here today. he is the jumping elites the world-class scientific effort that is destined in this house. and fun i would like recognition for doctor gerry bill, hurricane forecaster as the center. this is the handiwork of gerry and his team that will be talking about today. so the purpose of today is of course to present the 2013 atlantic hurricane season outlook and everyone here is eager to the facts and the figures, but i really want to emphasize and i would direct like to ask each and everyone of you to emphasize with your audiences that the news today really is not about percentages and rankings. the important news today for all of us is about preparedness, that now is the time to think ahead about the hurricane season that is coming, to make your plans at famine level, community level, your corporate level. now is the time to pay attention to preparedness. not to some few statistics.

but the statistics do matter and so on to the outlook. for the six-month hurricane season which will start june 1, noaa predicts an above normal and possibly an extremely active hurricane season. with a range of 13-20 named storms, the top ones at least 39 miles per hour. of those 13-20, we predict a seven-11 will become hurricanes having top winds of at least 74 miles per hour. and of those hurricanes we predict that three to six would become major hurricanes ranked categories three, four, and five, having 111 miles an hour wind or quit. these ranges reflect quite a lot of activities and they are centered well above the seasonal averages. i would note that the range for named storms is slightly larger than in the past, and that's simply because there is some

uncertainty about whether the activity that will occur in this coming season will be a smaller number of longer lived storms or larger number of shorter lived storms. these conditions favoring an active to highly active season come about because of a confluence of combination of climate factors each of which and al all of which together stg influence atlantic hurricane activity. these factors include a continuation of the climate pattern that has been responsible for the ongoing area of activity in the atlantic that began in 1995. warmer than average seasonal temperatures across the tropical atlantic ocean and the caribbean sea. and new normal, your average temperatures in the tropical pacific ocean which tells us that el niño future, economic that suppresses hurricane activity is not expected to develop this hurricane season. these factors combined, produce

lower wind shear, decrease wind shear, lower air pressure and a set of wind patterns that are very conducive to hurricane formation. in addition to many climate models including noaa's most sophisticated model on which meant special loans just to develop his hurricane outlook. many climate models also predict an active season. with superstorm sandy fresh in the mind and another active forecast, we encourage families and businesses in states along the coast -- gulf and atlantic state to take time now to make or refresh their hurricane preparedness plan. last year to remind you we had for landfalling storms. hurricane isaac and the gulf coast, sandy in the mid-atlantic region, and tropical storms in northern florida. the damage from every one of these storms reached well beyond coastline. as we often see, strong winds,

torrential rain, flooding and tornadoes can threaten areas far inland from storms first point of landfall. so the bottom line is, become weather ready now, prepare for this hurricane season starting today. that's really what noaa's weather service is all about. yes, we predict storms ahead of time and yes, we observe and tracked in real-time, but really what we're working to do is help people prepare in advance for the likely impact. but before entering this from our forecasters work around the clock to provide the best possible information to all of our partners, emergency matters -- managers and broadcast need all just a like and directors, you, the public. this helps everybody prepare to be ready to respond to each storm. we also prepared to respond after a storm. for example, three stage regional navigational managers to ports that are likely to be affected along the coastline to

enable rapid -- hurricane sandy demonstrated again tremendous values that noaa brings to the american society. the entire agency mobilized to help the public prepare for, respond to, anti-dig in rapid recovery before, during, and after sandy. the storm which was forecastle invents shows importance of a robust weather forecasting and infrastructure. there's some improvements to the infrastructure for this hurricane season but also like to highlight. improvements are forecast models. louis mentioned the subcommittee -- computer that will come online and allow us to upgrade a forecasting model. you're familiar with a piii hurricane hunter airplanes that fly through storms as they are progressing.

this year the doppler radar data from those aircraft will be transmitted in real time back here to the national centers to help forecasters better analyze and assess rapidly evolving storm conditions. we estimate that the injection of this data in real-time in hurricane model may improve results by 10-15%. and, finally, the national weather service has also made changes that will allow tropical storm and hurricane watching to remain in effect and to continue to be issued in cases where storms like sandy that meteorologically shifted in hurricane but in terms of human impact that we need to pay attention to. we have adjusted our procedures to keep it clear to emergency partners and to the general public, give our forecasters the flexibility that they need to provide the continued and clear will of or casting information. to talk more about the really

central topic of today, preparedness, i welcome to the stage themis joseph nimmich. -- fema's joseph nimmich. >> dr. sullivan, thank you very much for including us in today's hurricane forecast. as you indicated and we at fema no, we have a very close and probably one of the most important relationships between two government agencies is the ability to project potential crisis and the preparation and response and recovery from that crisis. it is about preparedness and it is about knowing what to do before the event occurs. we need to caution ourselves that the improved projections don't give us a sense of complacency that we don't prepare or that we think we have time to prepare that we may not. the atlantic hurricane season is just about to start. the season at home and from the

first of june to the end of november, but it's not uncommon to have a hurricane before or after those dates. hurricane sandy was at the very end of the hurricane season, and yet was one of the most devastating storms we've seen. you need to begin to repair now, preparation includes manufactured for including able to have the resources to sustain you and your family for 72 hours. that's the expected time that you can rely on emergency responders to be able to get to you with additional capabilities, additional commodities. 72 hours of food, water and shelter. you need to have an evacuation plan, and you need to be ready to implement that evacuation plan. the number one deaths that occur in terms of hurricanes occurs from not evacuating. whether it's an evacuation on the shoreline or inland flooding, not evacuating is where we lose most people.

you need to have a communications plan with your family. the speed and the opportunity of emergency may occur while your family is separated. there will be lack of communication. you need to understand how to text because texting is far more efficient, and often more capable than verbal communications, cell phone communication. you need to know what you're going to to evacuate two and that everyone knows what you plan is. no different than a fire evacuation plan from the house. you need an evacuation plan in case of a storm. unita friends and relatives or you can contact to be the focal point for your when you're in an evacuation. and you need to teach your family all of these elements. i just came back from oklahoma and walked to the definite -- the devastation of a global. one of the things, the recurring themes was this happened in 1999. how can it happen again here to

this intensity? the ability to have another stand in the same location a year later exists. this is a very dangerous hurricane season and if you're not prepared and you don't listen to the warnings and the evacuations, you are likely to be a statistic, one the statistics we don't care to have, or you're going to be depend on other people or you may find that you're unable to sustain yourself come and it wasn't the storm that caused your death but your inability to be prepared. we at fema work very hard to be able to support the states and local responders. in oklahoma it was the local responders who were there first. they will always be your first line of defense. but the capacity and the capability quickly dwindles and fema is prepared to come behind as we did in oklahoma with search and rescue teams, with resources and then to get survivors back on their feet into shelter with food and some ability to have housing while

they rebuild their lives. dr. sullivan again, want to thank you for your message of preparedness and thank you for the excellent work that the weather service does. you save lives probably more lives than anyone else in oklahoma with the weather predictions that you get. people were able to respond. it's a community that knows how to respond and while we deeply mourn the loss of seven children, there were far more children in that school that knew where to go and to how to protect themselves while they had minor injuries, they survived for another day. thank you very much. >> thank you. so now we're going to move to the q&a portion of the news conference. we will take questions from the room. and angie, operator, angie? >> thank you spent if you could start queuing up reporter questions on the phones. i will let you know when we are

ready. >> if you'd like to ask a question over the phone line, please press star one under touch tone phone. record your name at the prompting. >> questions? if you would, please come if you take your name and affiliation. >> associated press. actually a two-parter. dr. sullivan or gerry, first, usually you get a single number instead of a range. is it possible to take the ranges and now each of them down to single numbers? if not, why? and second, are there any factors, it seems like all the factors are on, you know, the push, you know, i'v [inaudible].

basically the worst, all the factors you one way or is there something that answers it all? >> it were meaningful and scientifically found to be a number instead of a rant we would have given you a number instead of a range. >> we've always indicate a range of activity. noaa has never issued a seasonal outlook that was not a range. spent on doctor gerry bell, i'm the lead seasonal forecaster for noaa. i've been involved in these hurricane outlooks since inception of 1990. it turns out the reason that we always get a likely range of activity is actually what the climate system tells us. when you're looking back combinations and different strengths of the climate factors that control the activity, those things really don't lend themselves to a specific number but rather a likely range. that's what we always indicate

in our outlook. this year, regarding the factors for the hurricane season, there are no mitigating, there are no mitigating factors that we can see that would suppress the activity. el niño is a tropical pacific climate phenomenon that is known to suppress the activity. el niño is not expected to develop this year. so in total the climate factors that we have in the computer models all point to a very active hurricane season. >> next question. >> [inaudible] >> i'm hoping you talk about the real-time data. you mentioned the first year, and is one in a day to it before and how will it work now? what kind of things to expect from its? >> don't go too far, gerry, you

can weigh in on this, too. the data stream that is of great interest out of that, details off the radar. if you mow -- there's a statement that produce correct the back off the tail and that contains a whether on a quite like doctor rader you see on television. it stands vertically. so as the aircraft goes through the storm you're getting passed through the storm the church and greater detail the dynamic structure of the storm. that effort is conducted by a hurricane research division which is one of the branches of the office of oceanic and atmospheric research so that's been the group that is developing a technique for many years. validating the data and running it essentially alongside a mouse to make sure that it is putting out the way we expected to. why don't you complete the chain from there?

>> so, what's different this year is within experiment in with doppler radar in our models for several years. this is a for sure we're actually going to be able to with imitation of the new hurricane model in late july, early august. we will be including that data stream as part of the model and without that that beijing is making a major contradiction to the intensity forecast that doctor fulham -- dr. sullivan already reference. this will be the first year we used that. >> enabled by the step up in the model. >> exactly. >> alone. i'm with the weather channel.

how do you plan to communicate these changes to the public? like all to my new data coming in that maybe was in line with enough, how do you plan to communicate that to the public? >> we plan basically communicate to the public in the same ways we have been, modified by what we learn out of both sandy and irene. we conduct the service assessment following every named storm and any weather event frankly that produces loss of life or significant property damage. we also look at technically was there any technical flaws or actively prevent we debate in the forecast enterprise itself. also the relationship and communicate should change from our forecast, the walls of this building when other values. value comes from getting into the public accessible and then the public understanding and pressurinappreciate the meaningf insufficiently and that they

respond as was stated so we did learn some lessons but i highlighted one of them. hour shift as sandy went far enough north that it was no longer technically erotically no longer a -- that was a nor'easter. but that shift in language and shift in and to shifting and responsibilities within the weather service cost some disruption. i think it mainly caused some confusion find the to our broadcast partners. we get a lot of discussion with our emergency and broadcast partners before making that the change. we didn't just decide it ourselves. and the decision we made at the time and those discussion to be the soundest best one that would produce the least confusion. but looking back it did produce some confusion in certain quarters so we've taken those lessons and procedural change i mentioned. let's keep calling it a hurricane. the meteorologists will take issue with that, that's fine. we want the public to know, things like that.

we have a number, we also work close with a number of social science research partners across the entire city where the front, and a major step up in this effort can be traced back to the 2011-12 tornado outbreaks. look at every segment of the warning change from the salad our radar to the emergency managers rod casting to citizens. this dig deeper and understand the social science aspect, what kind of language, what kind of phrasing, what kind of alternative challenges through social media, for example, might provide to someone, we get these can any of us would get this alert in the middle of a busy day and danger signal have to fight with the normalcy to shake us up to take some unusual action. and maybe some high state action. i'm leaving work and going to get my kids but in the middle of it i've got a meeting with

bosses but everyone has to weigh those factors. but it is a short window time, so what kind of language and confirming to tell people, accelerate their arriving at a safe decision. [inaudible] you are describing a very busy season. with the budget cuts looming, how do you plan to handle the scheduling needs of all these offices to make sure there's the manpower to handle these loves? >> we put forward a plan that congress is reviewing now that does what we are confident is there is a -- the best we can find, way too bland the financial obligations that congress has laid upon us with this reality. the weather service is the best known of noaa functions. that must continue 24 cylinder is not the only. there are satellite operators that provide the data to the weather service for example, and there are others. so in those areas where have you

looked regard at how we do the shift management and how we spread out across the dwindling number of months in the fiscal year. we look agency wife had a plan that actually lowered the impact on the weather service from what it would have been down to a four-day furlough impact. we believe that is manageable with some difficulty. we've got some flexibility if we need to use it in the event of a severe storm, we will be prepared to use that flexibly. switch on getting to work through these difficult budget times. rest assured everyone at noaa and my secretary of commerce fully understand and we completely support it come the importance of this mission of protecting lives and properties for americans and we will carry it out to the very best of our ability spent one more question in the room and then to going to the phones.

[inaudible] >> mine is very quick. just one of our stations in the mid-atlantic region, i'm just here, these predictions come is there a section of the country that you are focusing on? i know you are not -- if there's an area say the mid-atlantic region, afforded an, are there certain areas of the atlantic region that you think are more vulnerable this hurricane season or is that something that just can't be done? >> that, frankly, cannot be do done. and what our forecast can do is tell us the probability of severe events that could affect anywhere on our atlantic and gulf coast. you asked a vulnerability question. so anybody could be hit in the atlantic are gulf coast. there's another set of factors to consider about the

volatility, what kind of protection do they have in place, how is their natural shoreline defense and barriers? on preparedness measures today ready to go in terms of securing public infrastructure and so forth. so we can tell you your weather risk of scosh are is going to be high and made extreme high with respect hurricanes this you. if you live anywhere along the atlantic or gulf coast that's the message and you today. we can't give you a state and to our county answer or zip code and you. if you live along those shorelines, this is your warning. this is your announcement. and then look int at your famil, look at you community because that's the question about how vulnerable and i if such a risk arrives on my doorstep. >> please state your affiliation. you may ask your question. thank you i'm sorry.

>> caller: given that there is no mitigating factors for storms, storm production i guess, is of any kind of indication that the season may start earlier than normal over come you know, might be front loaded or are you still looking for the normal kind of pattern in august, september october and november? >> the science doesn't let us give the kind of precision about probabilities, definite probability of starting early or later. it does not contradict the general pattern of the propensity in the much indicated. let me invite gerry bell to answer that. >> noaa seasonal outlook for for entire hurricane season from june through november. for this year and historically the bulk of hurricane activity, about 90% or more of hurricane activity, typically occurs

during august, september and october. we do have some years where conditions are especially conducive forget a lot of tropical storms and hurricanes during june and july. but right now the climate patterns that we expect from this hurricane are just evolving and we really can't parse out as dr. sullivan said activity in any couple of months, the exact activity. thank you, thank you. >> [inaudible] >> caller: a couple questions -- spent could you speak up a? >> caller: can you hear me speak with yes trying to a couple questions. long-term era of hurricane activity -- i know you said it started in 95.

do you foresee an end to that at some point? >> this is kathy sullivan. the primary pattern that set up the active phase typically runs 25-40 years and this one was established to set up by about 1995, so outward from there. >> caller: and had a couple more questions. >> let's do one more. there are other folks waiting for questions. >> caller: did you slightly changed the uncertainty there at the hurricane center? did you make a little closer, a little thinner, is that true? >> standby, doyle. >> we will have to get back to you on that question. we will call you after the news conference. >> we will follow of off-line on that. >> you may ask your question. >> caller: thank you very

much. i'm with you "christian science monitor." i wonder if you could talk all of it, the 10-15% improving your expecting between the supercomputer and the new radar data but is there some -- that you're likely to see sort of the greatest instrument improvement in the overall number for maybe a given period outcome ahead of the storm's arrival? i wonder if you could sort of dig into that 10-15% a little more. >> this is louis uccellini again. what we are saying in the 10-50% range has been the intensity forecast. so with the inclusion of the wind fields and having the vertical distribution of wins that the doppler data will give us we are expecting that the hurricane intensity spinning up and actually the debaathification that occurs will be predicted with more

accuracy with this. >> caller: thank you. >> please state your affiliation became ask your question treachery yes, thank you. i'm from computerworld. can you tell us what the problem is with the satellite, and if that satellite remains out of service for a period of time what impact will this have, if any, on forecasting? >> this is kathy sullivan. we do not have a root cause, ultimate determination yet of what goes off-line the editors have been a problem with the star tracker which caused the satellite to lose its position host capability. we have activated our support team sound like. it's taking data now. we are using those data and developing products from them now. fairly lengthy process as you activate the satellite, satellite like this to recover

the navigation is the phrase that's used, to get that squeezed them precise enough that you've got very precisely do you locate them very precisely locate of the images that you're taking. and there's one mode of operation for the satellites that's very helpful to forecasters in events like we had this week in oklahoma called rabbit skin beginning at that precise navigation were established before you can go to rapid scan. so it is up and running, taking imagery and data now. we are deriving products from now. where something on the order, still some hours away of having the navigation tightened down to where we'll have rapid scan. but the satellite primary satellite team is now taking its attention back to 13 dig into the engine and data with boeing, the company that produced the satellite, and drive down the root cause of what happened. we had an anomaly someone to go with those 13 that took it

off-line completely for a number of hours. .. >> is benign, and so we have this window of time to work on both diagnosing the problem and considering whether we need to reposition 14. >> we're going to take a question from the room. >> hello -- [inaudible] from the associated press. my question is, actually, for the fema administrator. in talking of the message has

certainly been preparedness and get ready and get a plan, but the flip side of preparedness is it only goes so far if you don't have somewhere to go, or you don't have a means of getting out of where you need to get out of. so what would you recommend, and what is fema's sort of take on people who may not have the resources to evacuate, and what are the plans for this active storm season? is. >> it's part of the national preparedness program, fema works with all the state and local communities to look at evacuation plans to identify portions of the community that have disabilities, nursing homes, those areas that require more time to be able to execute an evacuation. so we work through the planning process ahead of time with all of those local and state partners in order to be able to have an an executeable plan. do we can't to work with them to

try to identify new and better ways of doing it? we have learned a lot in new york with high-rise elderly populations, disabled populations what we're now implementing in other cities with high-rise populations. so it is about planning both at the individual level, but also at the community, and it's the local and state level. it really is a community event. >> a question on oklahoma. you mentioned that the forecasting was a huge help, but also having the students know exactly where to go and what to do. there had been some questions about the tornado readiness of some of the buildings and not just the homes, but the public buildings, and then fema looking into that in ways they can help make improvements. >> fema has a mitigation program that after a disaster through certain legislation you can provide resources to the state. the actual ability to determine what is the best investment of that money resides at the state and local level.

so oklahoma has had about $57 million worth of resources for safe rooms. over 1100 private and public safe rooms were developed with that money, but the state prioritizes. and, clearly, that will be an effort after this. and before i get in trouble with my public affairs officer, at the end of my comments, i did not notify you that if you're looking for information on how to be prepared, ready.gov is where you need to go. and espanol -- [speaking spanish] >> i would just add on your comment about were the buildings strong enough, the definition of an ef-5 tornado -- yeah. no structure can withstand that. >> angie, we're going to take another call. >> thank you. travis rueson, praise state your affiliation and you may ask your question. >> in houston, abc down here.

wanted to see if you could comment on some of the operational changes at the national hurricane center this year, specifically extending the tropical weather outlook from two days to five days and the changes with storm surge products. >> yeah. the extension of -- it's louie again, national weather service. so the extension of the products is something that we're working towards both from a experimental perspective and operational. some -- i would like to get back to you on some of the specific changes. in terms of the lengths, we also have the five days and seven-day experimental work that's still ongoing. the storm surge itself, we are working, we're still on the tail end of, um, looking at improving these products. we're running a number of

experiments, and we're ready to go operational with these hopefully by next season. having stated that, we are as part of this communication process making efforts to be able to better communicate the risks associated with these storm surges in individual basin areas, harbor areas and up and down the east to coast and along the gulf coast. so a lot of work is going into this area. we're not quite there yet in terms of a big rollout in these dynamic surge predictions until we're about a year away from that. >> and i would just -- this is kathy sullivan, i would just add to that for clarity's sake, this effort is a combination of national weather service personnel at the national hurricane center, but very critically and by numbers greater, noaa national ocean service. people at our coastal services center that fly -- that run the

service networks that let us process exact heights and run these wash and surge models that we lay over those topographic models. >> we're going to take a question from the room. >> seth morganstern, again, from ap. it's been since 2005 since the u.s. has had a landfalling major hurricane, never gone this long before between landfall major hurricanes. how likely is it that somewhere in the is going to get a major landfall this year? is there any reason why we've gone through this unusual time period even though we've had, you know, high numbers of storms in and a final one is any odds on the fact that you may have to be going to, go past numbers and get into the greek alphabet this year? if you're hitting 20, you're hitting 21 named storms, do you think it's likely you're going to start to be using greek

letters? >> well, we're not going to give you odds on landfalling hurricanings. we're giving you the probabilities and ranges that we can produce scientifically and have a sound basis to them, so we'll leave it at that. why have we not had a major, you know, a category three, four, five, why have we not had cat three, four, five make landfall since katrina? you know, mother nature may know that answer, but science does not know that answer. we'll let jerry take a shot at that -- [laughter] jerry may know the answer, i don't know the answer. >> sure. there's a set of conditions that allow for hurricanes to form, a very specific set. there's also a specific set of wind patterns that allows them to make landfall. over the last three years, we've had an upper level trough, or an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere, that has been

keeping a lot of storms out at sea. so 1910, '11 and '12, a lot of the storms remained well at sea. >> [inaudible] >> sorry, 2010, '11 and '12. in contrast, in 2003, '4 and '5, we had high pressure over the eastern united states, and that pattern tends to bring these hurricanes further west, and then the gulf coast and the east coast see more hurricanes. predicting those specific patterns at these lead times is really not possible. our seasonal outlook is not a hurricane landfall forecast, it's for the strength of the season as a whole, and that's because largely where a hurricane strikes, how strong it is and things like that really depend on the weather patterns that are in place at the time the hurricane's approaching. and that's where the national hurricane center's expertise comes in in tracking, monitoring

and predicting these individual storms. >> how much is this connected to unusual patterns -- [inaudible] >> could you repeat the question? >> how long is this pattern -- >> if you condense it to the unusual jet stream patterns that we've seen. >> yes. the weather over the eastern u.s., those low pressure and high pressure areas that i were talking about are linked to the jet stream, yes. >> we have one last -- >> so he told you what determined it, i will still argue he didn't tell you why it's been that way. [laughter] other than the planet oscillates the way the planet wants toes late. >> -- the way the planet wants toes late. >> question in the room. >> [inaudible] >> noaa is very involved. global warming, climate change

is an extremely important issue facing our time. and many branches of noaa are really heavily involved in better understanding many different impacts from global warming, affecting weather, possibly affecting weather is simply one of them. more of what's been done over the last few years regarding hurricanes is to really assess some of the global climate models that are run specificically for, to address co2 issues and try and better understand how much or how little global warming may be impacting hurricanes relative to some of these other major climate patterns that's in place this year and that's been increased activity since 1995. so we're interested in understanding all of these different climate factors and, ultimately, their interplay. >> but there's not any changed models. >> no. and as far as the climate models that predict hurricane activity, there have been no changes. >> [inaudible] >> we're going to have a

question from the phone. angie? >> thank you. mark -- [inaudible] your line is open. please state your affiliation. >> thank you. it's mark -- [inaudible] with nova.com, "the times-picayune". i'm interested in hearing the answer to the question about storm surge mapping. are you guys going to roll out the new maps for local areas this year? >> so, mark, this is kathy sullivan. those are not going to go operational this year. if you're talking about storm surge, inundation mapping concurrent with landfalling hurricane events, you can look at noaa's digital coast web site. we have interactive, interactive digital elevation maps of a number of coastal zones that includes a sea level rise

viewer, a slider scale that you can adjust and examine as a function of varying climate model projections, again, taken from the best models globally how much sea level -- what rising level of sea level would inundate which areas in a specific geography around you, but they will not be operational products for this hurricane season. >> is there a reason for that? the hurricane season said earlier this year that they expected to be able to do that this year. >> we're -- there is, basically, manpower and computing resources to get lined up to be able to do that on the full shift schedule of an active hurricane season. so we will continue in the mode that we have worked in the last few years of working the national ocean service, national hurricane center product streams together and linking them, so we will have some of that information out if we do have a landfalling storm. but to go operational with them in noaa parlance invokes a very specific set of conditions and capabilities and capacities that

we're heading towards in due course, and we hope to be at next year. >> one last question from the phone. >> thank you. [inaudible] please state your affiliation, you may ask your question. >> yeah, willie -- [inaudible] with national gee graphic. geographic. was wondering if you could maybe clarify the information you gave at the start of this about the warm sea surface temperatures. you said that they are above average. i was wondering if, are they well above average? i was wondering if we could get a little bit of clarification on exactly how warm those waters are. >> this is dr. jerry pell. >> right now the average ocean temperatures across the atlantic are about eight-tenths of a degreefahrenheit above average. it might not sound like a lot, but that's quite a bit. to produce an active season like we expect this year, it's really just a lot more than than the ocean temperatures.

there's an entire set of air and wind pressure patterns that come together to produce an active season. we've been seeing that entire set of conditions since 19995 because it's very strongly controlled by climate patterns. that's what allows us to predict these conditions and allow us to say, for instance, this year that we expect an active or extremely active hurricane season. so we look at the entire picture, both the ocean and atmosphere, in order to best assess what to expect this season. >> i think that was our last question. we're going to wrap up the news conference. thank you to our speakers for participating today, and thank you for having follow-up questions. feel free to contact me by e-mail or phone. my e-mail is hover lean.o'leary at noaa.gov, and cell phone is 202-578-5257. thank you. >> thank you. that will conclude today's conference. thank you for your

participation. you may now disconnect from the audio portion. [inaudible conversations] >> live coverage now of a discussion on iran's upcoming presidential election. ahead of next month's election, the two leading candidates have been disqualified. former state department official john became letter will -- limbert will comment this morning. he was among the captives in the iranian hostage crisis. the event is being hosted by the project on middle east democracy. >> good morning. i'd like to welcome everyone and thank you all for coming. my name's steve mcier inny, very excited today to have this event focusing on iran. iran is one of the countries in

the middle east that attracts the most attention in washington both by u.s. policymakers, by the united states congress and by the media. there's always lots of debate and discussion about iran. however, despite all of the discussion about iran, there's actually extremely little examination here in washington of internal dynamics inside iran. you know, the tension toward iran is almost singularly focused on iran's nuclear program, the threat of that program and efforts through policies to combat that program. we're excited now to have, you know, a good opportunity to kind of turn the attention toward what's happening inside iran. our organization, we strongly believe that the internal dynamics in countries in the middle east is extremely important not only for those of us that are committed to support for democracy and human rights, but if you wish to understand

kind of the trajectory of the country more broadly and wish to have sort of coherent policy toward the country, you know, that internal dynamics perhaps splits within the government, the state of the opposition, etc., are extremely important. we've seen this quite dramatically, we've seen the impact of internal dynamics changing countries across the middle east in the past couple years, in countries such as egypt, tunisia, libya -- [inaudible] before these uprisings erupted in -- gnawed -- gnawed gnawed tiff. >> just three weeks from today we'll see iran's first presidential election since that one in 2009. we think that these elections

can be important moments even in countries in which the elections are deeply flawed. iran's elections are far from free and fair, but nonetheless, they can be extremely important. i remember egypt's election in november and december 2010 which was its most blatantly fraudulent election in decades and perhaps ever, and i think in hindsight that that election and kind of the public reaction to it is seen by many as being important, kind of the last important moment that helped set the stage in egypt for the revolution that erupted there just a couple of months later. so we thought that now three weeks ahead of this election is sort of an opportune moment to try to draw attention, to encourage debate and discussion here in washington about what's happening inside iran. and, you know, we would hope that this will not be just now during this kind of next few

weeks and not just during the election, but we hope to also try to sustain that attention. and we hope that try to return some of the debates in washington beyond just iran's nuclear program and talk of sanctions and sort of try to infuse, you know, the sort of fascinating political scene in iran into some of the debates and discussion here including around u.s. policy. before i introduce our speakers and turn it over, i'd just like to mention briefly, you know, this is, in this event is part of sort of a broader effort by our organization to focus a little bit more attention on iran. we have copies outside of a couple of publications that i draw your attention to. we recently published earlier this month a policy brief entitled "reform politics and iran's june presidential election."

an update on iran that we send out every friday afternoon, and we'll be sending one of those out later today. so i encourage you if you're interested in signing up for either of these, you can do so outside. i'd like, now, to introduce our outstanding panel of speakers -- [audio difficulty] what we might expect in the next few weeks. just earlier this week we saw the guardian council approve eight candidates from the nearly 700 that had registered to run in this election. until just 24 hours before election day. our first speaker this morning will be a journallest, commentator and translator who's worked on iran for a long time. she reported out of iran for nearly 20 years including for eight years for "the new york times." she was based there from 2001

until just a few weeks after iran's last presidential election in 2009. when she was forced to leave the country because of government threats against her for her reporting. she's continued since then to follow iran closely. she's currently a fellow at the bellford center at harvard. our second speaker will be miriam, co-director of a project at the collaborative for civic education. she's been a longtime, outspoken activist and advocate for women's rights, for internet freedom and civil liberties internationally. she has worked for freedomhouse on their middle east programs, she's also worked for the national -- [inaudible] and international rescue community, and pastor john limbert, he is currently distinguished professor of international -- [inaudible] at the u.s. naval academy where he has served since retiring from the u.s. foreign service

where he headed numerous postings including as the deputy assistant secretary of state which is his most recent posting during the -- [inaudible] [audio difficulty] islamic republic of -- [inaudible] and as an instructor at she razz university. so with that, i'll turn it over to get us started. [audio difficulty] because the last presidential election was in 2009, the majority of people believe that it was rigged. as you all remember, millions of people poured out on the streets and protested the results.

and the demonstrations carried on for about six months. people didn't give up easily. and then we have the 2009 parliamentary elections which was, again, state managed from start to finish. so the main question is whether this election on june 14th matters at all. i would say, yes, it is important because elections no matter whether they are rigged or not are important opportunities to gauge the state, to see where the political parties are moving. the weaknesses and the struggles of the system are on full display. the risks within the establishment and whoever gets elected, even if they belong to the same camp, will set the tone for domestic and foreign policy. so i think it is important to watch carefully and see what happens. and as you probably know, until last week the majority of people thought that it would be a very tight race among khamenei

loyalists because in 2012 parliamentary elections they were the only ones who were allowed to run in the elections. they were the only ones who survived the vetting by the guardian council. well, last friday the surprise came when rafsanjani and the rejection was predictable. but rafsanjani, when he entered the race, there was a huge excitement that was palpable on the social networking sites, and people we spoke to in the country. a lot of people thought that he would survive the vetting. how is it possible that this man who has been instrumental in elevating the supreme leader to his position, who has written the constitution that has given so much power to him, the man who has ran in various elections and has been elected to public office with popular vote can be

rejected? but again, the surprise came on monday when he was disqualified. both he and msah -- masraie. it was palpable on social networking web sites, even pages that were not political at all. i spoke to a lot of people on the ground, and one of the newspapers also referred to it as society going back into a coma. which was very interesting. but again, there was a lot of analysis coming out that rejecting rafsanjani is like rejecting the entire islamic republic, it's even rejecting the legitimacy of khamenei's rule. there had been assumptions that if khamenei -- if rafsanjani entered the race, he would have the power, he is the heavyweight guy who is capable of challenging khamenei, and there were rumors that he had said he

will be able to fix the constitution that he had written himself and given so much power to khamenei. so we have two scenarios now. one of the scenarios is that khamenei would come out a couple of days before the election just the way he did right before the presidential election in 2012 and with a decree call on the guardian council to allow both mashaie and rafsanjani to run in the elections. i personally allow if he allows rafsanjani to run, he will definitely allow mashaie to run too. they can pretend it was a democratic election, it was a free and fair election, people came out and none of them got recollected. that way they would be embarrassing both of them, and the name of the candidate who khamenei prefers will eventually

come out of the boxes. it would be a good humiliation for rafsanjani as well. the other scenario is that he wouldn't do that because the regime has not been hiding its coercive face anymore since 2009, that they would go ahead with these eight candidates. the eight candidates right now, four of them are prominent khamenei loyalists, one of them is a former head of the revolutionary guard who has practically run in every presidential election in the recent years, and he has come last. and it's clear that he doesn't have a chance. three of them are reformist figures, but not very well known figures. it's highly unlikely that they would be able to mobilize people, the large middle class, upper class, the ones who have historically voted for the reform movement.

or hashemi is known as the nuclear negotiator. most of the positions he has held have been ceremonial positions. he doesn't have a great following and doesn't have a very well known political standing among the reformists. the other two have served as mysters, one was a minister under rafsanjani. a lot of people, a lot of young voters don't even remember them. and they don't have big followings. and with the majority of reformist leaders, activists, journalists, students being in prison, the sort of engine that mobilized people in 2009, 2005 and other previous elections to come out and vote for these figures seems not to be there. and in 2009 -- [inaudible]

did not stir people's excitement for the election until a few weeks before the election day when the reformist camp through its hat behind mousavi. he had served as khomeini's prime minister. a lot of people remembered him as the man who had introduced rationing coupons into people's daily lives. he didn't have any support among the majority of people until the reformists with their experience of mobilizing people having done a lot of campaigns entered the race and suddenly, honestly overnight, people poured out on the streets and became supporters of mousavi. and we all know that most of these leaders are in prison now. even much more junior people, journalists, activists who were on leave from prison were called back into, to go back. a lot of web sites have been

blocked. one web site which had been approved by the guardian council has been filtered. internet has come to a crawl. so people do not have even the communication tools to organize and throw the support behind any of these reformist candidates. the assumption is that the two candidates loyal to khamenei, jalilil and -- [inaudible] are the ones who might get elected and, of course, khamenei probably prefers them. jalili is a bit of a surprise because it was rumored for a long time that -- [inaudible] was the next president. his coming to the race has, again, created this rumor that perhaps khamenei is shifting his attention from thing -- from one to jalili for the same reason he shifted in 2005. it appeared that ahmadinejad's

opponent was more of a strong character in 2005. he tried to present this image of a modern technocrat of himself in 2005, and then suddenly khamenei was disillusioned with him. he went after ahmadinejad who doesn't have roots in the revolution, who doesn't have any political base among people. and it's the same case with jalili. jalili is a war veteran, war disabled. he was appointed, again, to serve as the nuclear negotiator. he has held a very hard line line since his candidacy last week. he has given a couple of interviews to foreign media. he has said that if he gets elected as president, he's going to continue the same nuclear policy. he has even gone as far as denying that the sanctions have had any effects on people's economic situation which is, of course, not how people on the ground are feeling.

employment rates are high, inflation is high. and the economic issues is paramount on the minds to have the majority of voters. on the contrary, the other has roots in the islamic system. he was around when khomeini was alive. he was close both to khomeini and to rafsanjani. he served as rafsanjani's prime minister, and he was very much responsible for rapprochement with the west after khomeini died. so he's known more of a man who favors negotiation, and if we want to compare the two men as the man who's -- which one is going to be better for the country in terms of setting the tone for both domestic and foreign policy, velayati will perhaps follow a more compromising path than jalili.

what i've said so far is not very promising, but i want to add that iran has been the country of unpredictability. '97, nobody thought -- [inaudible] would get elected. i remember everybody was saying we're going to vote for him, but the other is going to get elected. but somehow probably the only free and fair elections were held in '97. we had eight years of reform movement which created discourse for reform -- this course for reform. that tammy did create space for reforms, even for the conversation we have right now. and again in 2009, the uprising, the massive protests, nobody predicted them. nobody saw them coming. even though they did not change anything on the ground, they did change a lot of things for people -- [inaudible]

[audio difficulty] if you go to khamenei's web site, he is very honest about his thoughts, about what he wants to happen. he has a link to the qualifications of the next president very much like a job posting. and there he has said that he wants the next president to be a competent manager. he wants him to carry out the economic plans, the 20-year economic plan that his office has approved, and he wants him to be firm in the face of international pressure. and he uses this, these exact words, that he doesn't want him to get scared in the face of pressure and leave the scene. so i think that is very telling.

thank you. >> okay. thanks very much. mary? >> okay. i wanted to thank -- [inaudible] for inviting me to speak. i'm very happy to see that there's an iran initiative as part of the broader regional initiative for promotion of democracy and human rights, and i'm honored to be on in this panel with ambassador limbert who i have a lot of respect for. i was asked to speak about civil society and the human rights situation and the prospects for reform in iran. and i want to begin a little bit by talking about in this word with, reform. because in english we use reform fairly loosely in the region and globally when talking about human rights struggles,

democracy struggles, transitions to democracy and human rights. in iran in particular, those who speak farsi know that reform is a very loaded word. it comes with a specific history and a specific era. the reform era -- [speaking in native tongue] is the hatami period which nazila spoke about towards the end. and the reformists are the -- [speaking in native tongue] and they're a very specific group of people if a broad spectrum of political actors. and the people, largely speaking, and the opposition -- broadly speaking -- who are for a democratic transition, who are for a government that respects the will of the people and respects their human rights and civil liberties and is an open market economy open to the world, not isolated, that big spectrum of people and that big

spectrum of the opposition includes the reformists but is not made up entirely of reformists. there is, in fact, a very strong and substantive distinction and conflict between the reformists and others in the opposition who are very much opposed to them and see the reformist era as an era of lost hopes and mistakes. yes, an opening, an election that was quite different than those that preceded it, but not free and fair, and hatami was certainly, for those ideas opposed to the idea of reform from within the system, government-let reform be, are deeply disillusioned with the reformists. not just the regime, the reformists. so i think this is very important to keep in mind when we're talking about iranian politics and presidential elections, because the people we call reformists continue to shift. when we lose, when we lose

hatami, we look for somebody else to call a reformist. now we say rafsanjani's the reformist. then we see him, then we see -- [inaudible] we keep going, we keep getting pushed back into what is called reformists because of the regime, because of khamenei's advances into this sphere of what is considered reform. and you saw this on the streets of tehran with the slogans -- not just tehran, all over iran in 2009 -- the people's slogans were quite revealing of this rift between what had happened earlier in the late '90s and early 2000s under hatami and what the people were asking for. many of the people who came out in the streets in 2009 who had not votes for knew san i have. -- mousavi. they were people who wanted full blown democracy, a full transition to a different type of government that respects the rule of law, that respects human rights, that has the separation of powers that, you know, where

the government is accountable to the people and not to god. so this is all as background to what we see before us today with these eight vetted candidates. it's disillusionment on top of disillusionment on top of disillusionment. it's not that the people had these massive hopes in rafsanjani, it's anytime they have hopes in anyone or anything, those hopes are crushed. it's a totalitarian system that gets more totalitarian by the day. totalitarian systems, by their nature, are not reformable from within. it's not, it's not that it's impossible to move from totalitarianism to democracy. many countries have done it. but they haven't done it because the government or candidates or because of intraregime politics. once, you know, massive example that we have from the 20th century is the soviet union.

gorbachev -- and keep in mind, iran does not have a gorbachev anywhere in the political spectrum, okay? but gorbachev tried in the best possible manner that a politician, a communist party leader could possibly try to reform the system. he was very deliberate about wanting to keep communism in the commune -- and the the communist party alive. all of the efforts he did both domestically and with the united states and the west were intended to keep the soviet union together. in the end, he couldn't do it. iran doesn't have anyone resembling a gorbachev, anyone that's acceptable to khamenei. he understands that dynamic very well, and he understands very well the dynamic of the shah that came before him. he knows that the shah lost power when he started to back down a bit, when he started to back down a bit. so khamenei is, you know, his fist so tight around every single possible opening in that

country, and he knows that if he loosens up even a little bit, the whole thing is going to unravel. somebody like rafsanjani who is, you know, many years responsible for not just reconstruction and all the sort of the nice things that we like to now talk about in the press about him being a moderate and open to the west and pro, you know, free trade and all that, he was leading the killing machine, you know? he was responsible when in mix nose the opposition, the kurdish opposition leaders were -- [inaudible] [audio difficulty] actors to talk about. we don't talk about -- [inaudible] as a possible political actor on the iranian political scene. we don't talk about the people who spent the last seven birthdays in prison.

a 27-year-old guy who speaks more eloquently and has a lot more thinking behind, behind him than any of these presidential candidates by far. and he's in prison. not just that, the guardian has put out a very extensive, well done database of political prisoners in iran. it's over 2500 people. over 2500 people in iran are in prison -- [inaudible] what's most necessary now, i think, for u.s. policy is to recognize that khamenei and company are not interested in the national interests. they're not interested in the revolution. they're not interested in islam or morality or the 20-year economic plan or the development of the country or nationalism or responding to u.s. and israeli imperialism or any of that. [inaudible] influence in the region. they're interested in staying in power. they feel more threatened than

ever because of the combination of an extremely dissatisfied population, an extreme economic and security pressures from the international community. and they just want to stay in power. and by staying in power, i don't even mean that they want the islamic republic to stay in power. they just want personally to stay in power and die before they get, the people get them. they've seen, they've seen what happened to gaffe calfty, they've seen what happened to saddam hussein. they don't want that for themselves. that's the main, driving motivation behind khamenei's political decision making. i think -- did i talk ten minutes? >> another minute or two, if you like. >> okay. um, one of the policy takeaways, i think, from my per peck you have, from this position -- perspective, from this position is that in nuclear negotiations with iran, it's imperative to not leave out the human rights

issues. the islamic republic wants very much for the nuclear agenda to stay dissociated from the human rights agenda. the it's a cat and mouse game -- it's a cat and mouse game. so long as they continue to talk nuclear with the west, they can obfuscate, they can keep all of this domestic stuff hidden. the west has a responsibility each and every time it approaches the islamic republic -- and hopefully to khamenei directly, personally -- hold him accountable for all of his actions that are a threat to the iranian people and to the region and the world. and those things are not just nuclear. so just as, um, and i'm going the mention reagan, although i'm not a republican. just as reagan held the soviet union accountable not just for its nuclear advancements and its encroachments in eastern europe,

reagan held through the helsinki process and other policy and negotiation tactics gorbachev and the entire soviet regime responsible for its treatment of dissidents, we need to do the same thing. we need to not let them off the hook. if we let them off the hook, particularly at important times like this around elections, then they're going to get away with it. during the green movement when people were out on the streets chanting barack hussein obama, barack obama, you're either with us, or you're with them. you're either with us, the people, or with them, the regime. barack obama sat back, he sat back for days. in the end when he came out to talk, he said we're not going to intervene in iranian politics. it doesn't matter to us if mousavi wins or if ahmadinejad wins, it doesn't matter anyways, that was the biggest intervention that a u.s. president could have made in the domestic affairs of iran at that

moment. so we have to be careful what we say, we have to be on the side of the people. >> thanks very much. ambassador limbert. >> thank you very much. i've -- listening to these two excellent presentations, i'm reminded a couple of nights ago there was a very interesting piece on public television about the retrospective on ronald reagan, and there was a long piece of it dealing with iran contra. and whether you agree with what they said or whether you think that it was accurate, it's a good object lesson in what can happen when we tie ourselves in knots over iran. and it seems to be -- that seems to be the effect of iran on this town for some reason. and i'm not sure, i'm not sure why. but the most important things about the elections you've heard

from nazil a&m ariam. these are iran-centered views. i'm going to give a more american-centered view by necessity. but my first, the first premise that i have is in this town it may be hard to accept, i mean, with our obsession with iran. you can go -- thank you for coming out on a friday before a long weekend, but i've often noted you could spend your life in this town going to iran events here at brookings, at aei, at the wilson center. but in this town obsessed with iran, it may be hard to accept this, but the presidential election there is an iranian event. it's not about us.

if we attempt to make it about us once again as we did in the '80s, we're going to, we're going to mislead ourselves, and we're going to tie ourselves in knots of bad assumptions and misguided decision, misdivided decisions. so -- misguided decisions. so what would be my advice to my good friends and colleagues in the government about the election? first, don't let the islamic republic make the election about us. it isn't about us. second, shut up about it. don't say anything. if you must say something, say as little as possible. now, i don't have to say the

obvious, but i will. and that is that the election has one major beneficial effect for, if this town, for the u.s. government. and that is simply that ahmadinejad will no longer be president of iran. [laughter] and as long as he was, um, i don't say this -- this is not a personal, this is not a personal attack or a personal insult, but the reality was, and i saw this from my inside my brief and somewhat unsuccessful tenure in the department of state dealing with iranian affairs, as long as he was, his statements on the holocaust, his statements about israel, his statements about homosexuals and other matters made him toxic. and too toxic for any american

official to deal with. his love of the outrageous and the divisive made him a liability, i mean, even for his own countrymen who attacked him. whatever came from him or anyone connected to him in this town was highly suspicious and and dangerous and was just considered unacceptable by nature. so what, if anything, should we do? well, first of all, if the, if the iranian election is good enough -- and what do i mean by good enough? well, my criteria should be about as good, if it's about as good as the 2000 american presidential election, that would be about my standard of acceptability.

if it's about, if it's good enough, then our president should send a note of congratulations to the winner. and, of course, in that mote he has to -- in that note he has to choose his platitudes carefully. he should avoid, for example, phrases like odious regime or change your behavior or we look forward to your ending support for terrorism. probably not helpful. platitudes are definitely can the order of the day here -- are definitely the order of the day here. now, i've always been optimistic that the united states and iran will someday break its estrangement, an estrangement that's gone on for 34 years and in my view, at least, has not done anyone any good. but this break is unlikely to happen as the result of this or

any other iranian presidential election. i mean, there was no break even after mohamed that tammy's surprising and overwhelming victory in 1997 even though the two sides did start to change the way they spoke to each other, and they began to talk about dialogue, and today began to talk about -- they began to talk about road maps and these kinds of things. but in the end, the estrange estrangement -- really unique in our diplomatic history -- continued. so what would break in this, what would make a difference? i would say it will come with the weakening or the maybe disappearance of the senior clerical elite that has heldpowy

power in iran since 1979. a group of originally about 25 senior clerics. now, age has taken -- time has taken its toll on this group. my friend, good friend who's here at carnegie, says that this group's average age now is deceased. [laughter] but there are still, some of them are still here, and they're still important. many have departed, but -- and one has actually taken on the unlikely role of outsider. but the few that remain, and the names are familiar -- jazdi, khamenei himself and, of course, one known around tehran known as -- [inaudible] [speaking in native tongue]

[laughter] they continue to wield considerable power. and so far have shown very little inclination to change either the foreign be or domestic policies that have kept them in their palaces for 34 years. real change and change that matters, will matter to us will come not when one figurehead replaces another figurehead. it will come when the men's club, this old men's club that has dominated power, dominated offices for 34 years, finally loses its grip and allows a creative, dynamic, well-educated population finally to express itself. thank you.

>> okay. thanks very much to all of you. before i open up the floor to questions from the audience, i'd like to follow up with a couple of questions myself. to begin with, there was a couple mentions of the outgoing president, ahmadinejad. and i'd be interested in hearing thoughts, you know, there have been a lot of, you know, ambassador limbert, you just mentioned sort of the damage that he's often seen as done inside iran. there's been a lot of discussion of sort of rifts between the supreme leader and the clerics and ahmadinejad. i'd be interested in hearing kind of any thoughts on whether he's likely to try to play any role in the next three weeks, if he's likely to make public statements that may, you know, influence the course of the election as it's coming. i would also be interest inside hearing -- interested in hearing thoughts on the impact of

developments elsewhere in the region primarily in the arab world on what's happening now in iran. you know, since rapp's last presidential -- iran's last presidential election in 2009, we have seen these dramatic uprisings that have had, you know, intense consequences across the arab world, i'd be interest inside hearing kind of thoughts on the impact of the changes in the arab world, on both the perceptions of the iranian people of their own government and regime and at the time of this election as well as kind of government, the regime's thinking about this election. so i'd be -- ambassador limbert, maybe we could start with you and maybe hear thoughts from the three of you on those points. >> okay. i will be very -- i will be very, i will be very brief, and i'd be very interested in hearing from our colleague, from my colleagues. but in the case of president

ahmadinejad, it's hard to see what he can do because his favored, his favored candidate isn't running so far. i mean, if he backs in. and a lot of, a lot of his appeal was based on some personal items that affect him. i mean, his very flamboyant, perhaps his program in boy minneapolis, his -- program in boy minneapolis, his populism, his incorruptibility which is a big issue in iranian politics, has been for a very long time, and the fact that he is not, he is not a cleric. and i think he pretty effectively tapped into the sort of anti-clerical strain. not anti-religious strain, but anti-clerical strain in iranian political culture. very effectively. and if you see most of the --

[inaudible] candidates coming out are not, are not clerics. everyone knows it and attempts to pretend otherwise, are seen concern -- i mean, seen through immediately. in the interest of brevity, i would cite only a slogan which i am told was very current in tehran after the failure of the green movement uprisings in 2009 and the success of the arab spring particularly in tunisia. i believe the slow garntion if i'm right -- tunisia, was -- [speaking in native tongue] means tunisia could, iran could not. and the lessons are that, you know, the lessons are there.

whatever the, you know, whatever the outcome, the quality of the outcome in the arab spring, the fact of the matter is that some, at least some of the arab countries have done, have overthrown entrenched, unelected, corrupt systems that the iranians have so far not been able to do. >> thanks. >> it's true, it's true that the iranian people marley in 2009 -- particularly in 2009 were unsuccessful in ousting their oppressors and transitioning to democracy. but it's also true that there were four million people on the streets of tehran, and no other arab city even came close to that, including cairo. the different political systems, the iranian regime is far more sophisticated in its repression than any other government in the middle east, and the fact that these other regimes in the arab

world -- egypt, tunisia, particularly egypt and tunisia -- were aligned with the united states certainly helped very much in terms of the people power ability to rise up against them. they were just far weaker regimes. as far as people -- iran watchers who are very close to iranian civil society, you know, what the mubarak and ben ali reaction to what was happening on the streets was like, you know, it was childish compared to what that khamenei managed t. khamenei's repression is far more sophisticated also in that he watches tiananmen square, he watched what the shah did, he watched the unraveling of the to soviet empire, and he knew that if he got too repressive and to

violent in an overt way, things would backfire on him. not that he wasn't prepared to do that. anybody watching visually the streets, particularly after the bullets knew that he was more than willing to kill to stay in power. but he didn't need to because the machine of repression is far more sophisticated. the sham trials were very stalinesque. one point on the incorruptibility of ahmadinejad, i have to disagree. i mean, just because somebody wears the same shirt every day doesn't mean that he's incorruptible. we've seen populist leaders time and again who look like they're from the people and are very, you know, salt of the earth, down to earth people, but during ahmadinejad's time, his primary constituency has accumulated enormous wealth. these guys have been filling their pockets more than any other time during the islamic republic.

and one i dynamic to keep in mid that might be interesting in terms of prospects for democratic change is during the hatami era, the price of oil was $15 a gallon. and the supreme leader may, in fact, i believe, was seeing hatami and reform efforts as a way to both appease the west and keep people somewhat satiated, satisfied at home. the -- khamenei can't afford to do that anymore, but also it helps a lot that the price of oil is much higher and, you know, the ole rev knew -- oil revenues have just been e enormous, and the corruption has exceeded anybody's expectations and primarily because of ahmadinejad. >> thanks. nazila? is. >> i'm going to start with the ahmadinejad factor. he has said that he's not going to give up. he has threatened that he has access to a lot of state files

through his intelligence ministry, and he's going to, he's going to be a player. i mean, that might be like the only flicker of hope that he might try to be a game changer. but as ambassador limbert said and as mariam said, i highly doubt that he can do much. and i think that's why khamenei prefers jalili over velayati because jalili unlike ahmadinejad, doesn't have a support base, and whenever he wants to get rid of them, he can easily get rid of them. ahmadinejad doesn't even have a base among members of the revolutionary guard who have benefited from the oil revenue and from many of his decisions. i mean, he is the one who has empowered them practically. but if he decides to, like, mobilize people behind him on the streets, i highly think he can -- there would be, like, even several thousand people who would demonstrate in his favor.

most of his supporters are people in the rural areas who got handouts, loans. and, in fact, according to government figures, these people have moved up from lower class up toward middle class. there is a very small minority of very poor people whose economic situation um proved mostly -- improved mostly because of the oil money. but i highly doubt ahmadinejad would be able to be major player in the elections. and to go back to the question regarding the success of the revolutions in egypt and tunisia, i was very surprised that immediately after the fall of mubarak iranians started comparing the revolution in egypt with the 1979 revolution. i mean, first, i thought they were being jealous, they were being envious. because, i mean, after all the

egyptians did in less than a month what the iranians couldn't do after six months. and the number of iranians were greater. iranians were the ones who came up with all the sophisticated social networking tools that egyptians said they used it. but, i mean, that discourse continued even to this day. like when the islamic brotherhood came to power, they started writing that they were predicting this. it's very much like the process after the iranian revolution partly because the islamists were more organized. and so they had the ability to hijack the revolution. and as mariam said, i totally agree. i think the situation so different. one to have telling examples -- one of the most telling examples was that during the protest there was a cartoon that came out, and it showed ahmadinejad calling mubarak with khamenei's photo over his head, and ahmadinejad was telling mubarak how many times did i tell you, you need to create your own

besiege force? [laughter] there are many major differences. like iran had the oil money. the islamic republic does not need to get loans from the united states. so it has the money to buy equipment, to create its own force, the besiege and the revolutionary guards which are benefiting hugely from the status quo. they don't want to see any change. they'll go out of their way to suppress any kind of pro-democracy protest. in addition to that, there are no alternatives to the islamic republic. iranians remember what happened in 1979. they remember the bloodshed afterward, they remember the war x. it's not that they like the islamic republic, but they are very much afraid of any kind of institutional breakdown, especially as long as they don't see another alternative. i mean, mousavi was the man that they thought could bring some little change, and they are

happy to see some grassroots, slow change rather than a big institutional change, probably instability, violence and then going through what they did 35 years ago. >> okay. thanks very much. at this point i'd like to open up the floor to questions from the audience. we have microphones, they'll come around. if you could, please, wait for the microphone, and if you could, please, just briefly state your name and affiliation before getting to your question. so we'll start right here in the front. >> good morning, alan -- [inaudible] with mei and dentons. my question is what's the significance of the elections for the nuclear negotiations, particularly if jalili or velayati is the winner as i think, nazila, that you suggested. thanks. >> which -- and i see a lot of

hands. we'll take a few questions together here, and then we'll take answers before we come back. >> i'm ali -- [inaudible] thank you so much for shedding light on such an opaque and difficult-to-understand political system. my question is regarding in the wake of rafsanjani's rejection by the guardian council what your reading is on the supreme leader and his group's power. one reading could be that they were so frightened by rafsanjani and his group and they're weaker and that's the reason they got rid of him, or the other reading could be that the supreme leader and perhaps the revolutionary guard around them just feel so strong that they just don't really care anymore about legitimacy or keeping other factions within the fold. thank you. >> thanks. and right behind you. >> thomas -- [inaudible] with the elliot school, grad student there. i was going to ask what role you think the iranian government's

threat perception of the u.s. may or may not contribute to its human rights abuses. in other words, you know, seeing a u.s. billionaire behind every coffer reform in democracy, etc. >> okay. okay, thanks. we'll take answers from these three questions, and then we'll come back to the audience. start, nazila? if you want to address, maybe if you could start with the second question on, um, the -- your reading of the supreme leader and the group around him and their power kind of in the wake of what we've seen the last few weeks. so maybe if you could start there. >> i think the supreme leader has learned his lessons. from the 1997 presidential election. i mean, he allowed the elections to be a little bit free. he let it go, and then suddenly

he lost control for eight years, and he had to constantly confront politicians who wanted to open up the system, and he felt very, very threatened by it. so i think since then he has learned that he's going to try to be in control. rafsanjani was definitely going to pose a serious threat. i mean, he would have challenged the legitimacy of after san january gnu's rule. when you think about it, this guy has not stood for any popular elections in the past 35 years. the council that is rejecting the candidates is appointed by him. none of them have stood for any, in any elections. and rafsanjani himself has stood for several elections. he has lost in some, he has been elected as president at least twice, and most recently he was the top vote getter for the council of experts. so i don't think the supreme leader is going to allow anyone

to enter the race or at any other point to oppose any serious threat. regarding the nuclear policy, unfortunately, i think the iranian leadership, the supreme leader, is not going to compromise. i mean, he is not in a position to even start a dialogue over compromising with iran. you have to just go to his web site and look at his comments about the nuclear program. i think he is adamant to stay in the history and in the minds of iranian people as the leader who brought the country a nuclear capability. i mean, perhaps that would erase every other thing about him. unless, i don't know, things really change. the only thing that i think might force him to change is a very lucrative proposal. and i think this is where diplomacy can work.

unfortunately, in the recent talks in the negotiations that started just a few months ago, there has been no proposal that would give iranians a face-saving path. they have to be offered a good proposal so that they would be able to come out and tell the iranian people, okay, see? we won. and they have things to offer society and tell them, okay, this is what we have achieved, this is how much uranium we have enriched, and so we have this much stockpile, and now we have defeated the enemy which is the term khamenei constantly use in his speeches. that is the only thing that might force khamenei to change his position. otherwise would the revolutionary guards around him, with other hard liners who do not have any standing in the islamic republic have no way of putting pressure on khamenei. he's not going to back down. be um, i think iranians are

responded to pressure over human rights violation, and i think that's where, as mariam said, the west, the international community can put more pressure on iran. as the you said, the number of people who are in prison is astonishing, and the way these presidential elections are coming out and the statement just recently was really scary, very alarming. i mean, in 2005 he tried to present himself as this modern technocrat. i remember his aides were meeting with us with the foreign media. they were asking us not to mention that he had been one of the signatories of the letter to hatami in '97, sorry, in '99 when demonstrators were out on the streets, and he and several other commanders wrote letters saying if he didn't get the protesters off the streets, they would intervene themselves, and then the bloodshed would be his responsibility. they didn't want to mention that way.

they quantitied to change his image -- they wanted to change his image. and now he's coming out boasting that he was on the streets personally, '99, 2003, 2009 clubbing people, and he gave the order to open fire on demonstrators. i mean, he can't be blacklisted, and this is the best opportunity to make an example of him. for the rest of the revolutionary guard's commanders. it's very clear that his intended audience is not iranian voters. he is addressing khamenei and telling him that i'm there, i'm going to stand up for your rule. >> thanks. mariam, if you could continue with this kind of, your comments on in reaction to the question about the perception of the threats to the united states and the impacts of this on human rights abuses in iran. >> okay, sure. i couldn't agree more with nazila about that it's highly effective and important morally and strategically for the united states and the west to put the pressure on the united -- on the

iranian regime as far as human rights goes. it's always been effective. the regime has always backed down on particular political prisoners or particular freedoms once they see outside pressure. the idea that there's a bogeyman, an american bogeyman behind demand, behind aspirations for democracy is actually something that the regime has used time and again against its people. so whether or not there's any american backing for the aspirations of the iranian people for democracy, the united states -- the iranian regime has constantly accused human rights act visits -- activists, human rights defenders, journalists, intellectuals, artists, musicians, ordinary people of being american spies. ..

>> under the bush administration people working right now in the state department talk about how under the bush administration it was the white house making those mistakes and it was the white house that a press release and the fact he needs to be released. he was released because of that pressure. but now we have this sort of backing off if we stay silent, it'll be better. if we stay silent, somehow things will go in the right way. it doesn't happen that way. time and again with other countries we've seen the same thing. dictators don't like it when leaders of free countries called about what they're doing. what's more, much more important is that i'm not saying this, ma the people from inside our

singer. their primary slogan was a barack hussein obama, you're either with them or with us. and in other ways, we have a letter on a website. using the same thing. constantly calling on leaders from the free world to express their solidarity with the human rights defenders come with the activist, with the dissidents, the artists, musicians. it's not like they are just one or two people in prison. you're a filmmaker come to go to prison. you're an artist, you go to prison. your university professor, you go to prison. these people are going to present the in the united states doesn't speak out for them, who will we speak out for? where are our values? >> thanks. if you can be -- begin with a question on the impact of outcome therefore nuclear negotiation. negotiation. >> okay, first of all i was noticing one thing here, it says in the head out, it said 7456

lawyers, iranian lawyers sent a letter to the guardian council calling for disqualification of president rafsanjani and mr. mashaie. i don't know anyone who is opposed by that many lawyers can't be all that bad i suppose. [laughter] okay, the nuclear, the nuclear issue. i have a somewhat different position, different, i certainly agree with what nazila said, this election is not going to change the position, nor is it going, i don't it's going to create an opening. my own view which was not widely accepted within the administration when i was there was that after 10 rounds of nuclear negotiations, this particular issue for all kinds of reasons, although it may be important, it may just right now be too hard to do.

that both, it has become for both sides to laden perhaps, too laden with testosterone. both sides have painted themselves into rhetorical corners. the concessions that we want the iranians cannot give. what the iranians want we cannot do, we cannot give. and we, maybe it's time to put, perhaps but the issue aside not to forget bout it, not that it's important, but to look for other areas where the sides can discover it's possible to say yes and the sky will not fall. and then if we can find other areas such as afghanistan, such as narcotics, persian gulf, persian gulf security, whatever else it is, then perhaps you can

come back to the nuclear negotiations. if we keep thinking that, i don't see the selection during that period on the human rights issue i couldn't agree more that you don't have, silence is certainly not the way to go. on the other hand, like everything else, what you say you have to be smart about what you say. you have to be careful about what you say. because you have, you can feed the islamic republic's propaganda machine which says that our human rights campaign is nothing more than what they call a soft overthrow campaign, soft overthrow campaign, and i would point as an example to the outrageous incident around town, most of you are someone with it, of any gay, -- mek, and how this very strange organization has drawn support from high level,

from senior i should say retired, former american officials who address, for example, madam president, and it is these people as though they were some kind of democrat agree. well, frankly, i think most people in this room know what they are. if you like jonestown, they would just be your cup of tea. in fact being detested by most iranians, but point is that i'm considered statements, people maybe with good intentions think they are supporting human rights and iran and think they are supporting a beseiged intelligentsia, which both of the other speakers refer to, and criticizing a government that seems to declare war against its

bloggers, against its women rights activist, against these people, you know, ill considered statements do not help. and supporting a group like, supporting a group like that, frankly, is not helpful. >> is islam is republic propaganda machine doesn't need anything. it's got a constant supply of food from within the regime. whatever the united states government does, they will continue with their propaganda machine. it's not as though by saying the next things on our human rights we're going to help them to not have sham files are not torture people are not raped women in prison or not allow women to go out and dress the way they want, or not in prison the entire leadership or not called homosexual come execute homosexuals, are really the entire iranian nation is something. it's not even, you can even call it issue-based repression but it's the entire country. the united states by not speaking out, you know,

ambassador lempert is taking specific things that are but demands like support for the mek, which the administration does not support the mek, and scaring the immigration -- did administration doing things. particularly because of these kind of arguments that the obama administration has stayed away from doing the right thing. i just, again and i said before, people are calling for this. the human right activists are calling for this. really anyone i can think of was prominent in iran who's willing to be that courageous is calling for the united states and the governments of free countries to say, look, it's us that should matter. it's not the nuclear issue alone. it is us that should matter and you have abandoned us. >> i think we'r we are in violet agreement over this. >> we are. [laughter] spent i think is just a violent disagreement about it, i do.

>> we'll come back to the audience. start in the back. >> so, thank you all very, very interesting presentations and viewpoints. this morning i think john kerry came out and actually said that the guardian council has stepped in the way of the path of democracy in iran and to steer all of your viewpoints on that particular statement, was that helpful or not? about your point, the human race to finish an activist in iran that are in prison. totally agree with you, those are the ones that want the international community to do more, the us to do more. the problem is there not a position of power. they're not even remotely i in a position of power and it's really the reformists that could play that role if they are not calling for the u.s. to do anything. so i'm wondering whether, if the reformists the establishment that's closer to power, we be more willing to speak to the international community?

if you would change your perspective and say the u.s. is doing more, thank you. >> just next to her. >> thank you. i know you've touched upon this here and there briefly, but outside the dynamics of the supreme leadership and the presidency, there's an issue of irgc, "the guardian's." and the fact that i think perhaps the supreme leader is beholden to them and their power and the fact that as was mentioned, coming out with a completely different image try to appeal a sec, i want to hear your thoughts about the impact that is going to have on the election and how candidates are trying to appeal to a particular cobol and their a la cart backers. thank you.

>> hi. i am from search for common ground at ambassador limbert, you mentioned that it would be very good news that ahmadinejad will not be president and in particular this will be good news for the u.s. and i was wondering what your thoughts are on, if jalili were to become president, because i know he has not generally been a great negotiator with the u.s. in terms of the nuclear issue. >> one last question here in the front and then we'll come back to the next round. >> thank you. i am teaching university. coming back to the question that ambassador limbert raised, anything should we do, you know, united states do.

my answer is that don't do anything like 1953, because the government that is currently in power in iran is the result of 1953 cia coup in iraq -- iran. according to the cancer group, -- famous authors, american authors that are supporting the iranian struggle. and marry him, according to your statement, that you are talking to the leader of the free will world to recognize the genuine democracy in iran, the leader of the free world look at the middle east. who are their friends like saudi arabia? kuwait? jordan? these are the friends of the leaders of the free world. do they support the movement in

bahrain of the democracy movement in bahrain? no. they support -- [inaudible]. my question for mariam is what really genuine opposition in iran should be dependent, should be dependent the united states of money from the cia or, you know, ngo, you know, think tanks like that, or should on their own feet? nazila, you mentioned twice in his speech on you brought the question of democratic election in iran. in the first scenario that you put, if khamenei comes and says rafsanjani okay, they're elected, this becomes a democratic election. or the election was a democratic election, the constitution of iran says, first of all, that

candidates, president, you know, the candidates, first of all should be men, right? 50% of the people are women, they don't have rights to participate. second, it should be martyrdom. third, it should be shia. fourth, it should be -- for the should be supported by the guardian. where is the democratic movement calling this election? is completely sham. >> thank you. we will take a brief responses from the panelists and the moon come back for a last round of questions. ambassador limbert? >> a couple things. you asked about -- i haven't seen it. i haven't seen it, and i'm going to do, i didn't write it. i plead not guilty of that, but i haven't seen it so i will do

my usual, my former state department cop out and say i can't comment on something i didn't see. i mean, the kind of, the temptation to sort of get into the details of other countries in electoral processes is one i think we should resist. and we should return to general principles, which is supporting democracy, affording the right of iranians like everyone else to be treated decently by their government. recently, a senior government official referred to, public refer to the regime there as odious. whatever we think, whatever, you know, maybe she speaking for what many of us think, that choose our words carefully, choose our words carefully. finally, about the difference with mr. jalili, would we, with

negotiations go any better, whether be more progress? i'm really not talking issues of substance in terms of the contrast with president ahmadinejad. it was his style, his outrageous statements, the kinds of things he made that made within, the affect that had here in washington, within our own bureaucracy, was that common people could not consider anything coming either from him personally or from any part, anyone or others connected with him. he was simply too considered, consider too toxic, too difficult, and no political figure, no leader could deal with that. would another president, for

example, change the position? probably not. would there be any issue to meet? no. i know mr. jalili has, since his 2009 meeting with then undersecretary bill burns in geneva, he has consistently refused to meet one on one with the american delegations in the p5+1 meetings. my view is that, that's a mistake. it's shortsighted on their part but the last i heard, people, the islamic republic was not seeking my advice on that particular question. >> marion, if you could address the question to you. >> yes, thank you for the question. if we're going to take democracy seriously and provide democracy seriously and staying on principle, then when a country has an election, it's the time

to talk. you can't say we are for democracy and not talk about free and fair elections. how else are you going to promote democracy? not that it is just that but at least one of elections talked about how up so they corrupt they are. 10 days ago we are in toronto for a conference at the foreign ministry, canadian foreign ministry put together with the school at the university of toronto and the canadian foreign minister and canadian defense ministers gave rousing speeches to a group of iranian dissiden dissidents. and the entire time all i could think was, this is absolutely wonderful. this is so incredibly powerful, useful, effective. is only other countries, primarily the united states could join, it could make all the difference. and the canadian government should not be ahead of the

united states government on these matters. the french government shouldn't be ahead of us on what to do about mali and libya. this is the united states of america, we are supposed to leave the issue when it comes to issues of freedom and democracy. >> nazila don't give anything to add? >> i'm just going to answer the last question. well, about everything, about iran. our terms are relative. when is a democratic election in 97, i meant that these people's votes were counted. you know after that, the votes seem to become even the ballots were rigged. and again regarding khamenei's intervention before this coming election, as if he would pretend that democratic elections are held, and they were allowed to run. i want to go back to the question about the revolutionary guard, and i think that's what i agree with ambassador limbert. i think the revolutionary guard has taken the place of the

founding fathers of the revolution. and that's where khamenei has been very well after he was appointed as supreme leader because he was a junior clerk, because he was a ranking one. he was reluctant to work with the senior clerics who were close to how many. that was when he, for example, got rid of -- as head of the judiciary and brought in others it was a mid-ranking cleric. and since then we see that he is gradually pushed the cleric aside, influential clerics, i very much sideline now, and read more and more revolutionary guard, especially upstart one such as ahmadinejad who are becoming more powerful people. and i think that's how he is calculating. he can easily remove them without being challenged by a big support group.

>> thanks. where time for a couple more questions. up here in the front, please. >> colin winston, my question is primarily for mariam memarsadeghi but anyone else can answer it. to talk to human rights in iran. but is anything the u.s. can do other than talk? anything the u.s. can actually do on the legislative agenda, beyond just condemning the problem? >> we will take another question or two quickly. just right behind him. >> i have more comment rather than question. question. >> just keep your comments brief. >> my first comment about ambassador limbert mentioned,. [inaudible] khamenei and revolution occurred. khamenei well fire all of them. guardian and counsel or assembly

expert, they are sure, united by khamenei. but ahmadinejad as well. khamenei exactly what ahmadinejad -- do not like. that's why khamenei mention, the whatsoever presidency, it means. [inaudible] on israel, on america. but other than to not have these advantages, means not of a khamenei. it is a kind of shame. ahmadinejad time is up with because even his candidates, the only candidate to talk about the difference is the relationship between israel and iran -- [inaudible] and i think when we talk about the u.s., it is not just about

the u.s. summit to iranian's, but common interest. it is basically u.s. to get from the iranian regime that they pursue common interests, mutual interest. iranian bonds -- [inaudible] managed i -- by the rules but on the other side, there needs be established middle but even if they do not suffer their vows, it is the baseline to put all power, iranian demand decide whether organized international against iran based on some tablet the iranian government extreme pressure to give -- not to decide it. this is fine about not just aborting specific candidate. excuse me. and in general if you do not want to talk about election probably come if you do not want

specific issues, like if you want to tell people that, find. like rafsanjani. rafsanjani -- [inaudible] was killed, assassinated by regime in europe and european government. it can't happen again, same regime. and the timing is not -- the timing goes back. [inaudible] >> sir? [inaudible] >> and we do not know what's going to happen if they get nuclear bomb. >> thank you. take one last question right here. >> question for mariam. i know have -- don't you think that, you would get separate report from human rights would actually add restrictions in the

country for the civil society? have about 2400 people in jail now, but more support for human rights, don't you they would add restrictions and add pressure on the iranian's? especially now that we have sanctions also. my second question is, don't you think that it would complicate nuclear negotiations and iran, which, you know, don't you think after the nuclear talks maybe there's opportunity to talk about iran's human rights? thank you. >> thanks. merion, would you want to begin with that and also the crush of whether there's anything the u.s. can do to support human rights beyond just talking about them? in the final, just briefly. >> thank you. these questions are very related, the first question here is what can the united states government do more specifically beyond talk, which is fantastic. and the flipside of it is don't

you think that it's better not to do much, and that kit they can also harm the nuclear negotiations. that is exactly the line of thought that the regime wants people to think, that if you bring to human rights issues to the table then you're not going to get anything on the nuclear front. we are not getting anything on the nuclear front. it's been how many years of his cat and mouse game? they have not considered on anything. all the analysis here in unison is that they're not going to give us anything in the near future either. so from whatever perspective you look at it, the prospects of the these nuclear negotiators aren't very good, and so again, with other repressive regimes the same arguments have been made, that if you push an human rights you're not going to get on the security issues, you're not going to get on whatever, trade. it's never worked. it's never been true. in an essay while he was imprisoned wrote that our

biggest enemies, strategically, intellectually, are the people who live in the west, who live in freedom and tried to convince their government time and again not to speak out on human rights issue. those people are bigger enemy than the people here at home who repress us. because the people here at home who repress us they know the truth. they know they are repressing us and another if the western powers put pressure on them, they won't do it as much. but the goodhearted people who live in the west and think that if those governments to put pressure on these governments, and some a magically things will improve, they are the bigger problem. what can the united states do more specifically in terms of legislation? some of the stuff the united states congress has ar redone hs proven extreme ineffective and that's holding individuals personally accountable. individuals that we know are responsible for torture, individual been are responsible for assassination. individuals that we know are

responsible for crackdowns and assassinations also abroad. hold them responsible. hold people responsible who are filtering the internet, who are in charge of the prisons are get down to the present level. get and even to the interrogator level. so use names, names, names, names and shame as much as possible. try to convene. i know with this administration is going to be almost impossible. there's only three years left but the u.s. congress can, with parliaments of other free countries, and dean assembly's of free nations, parliaments of free nations who support a democratic iran. the canadians in the canadian parliament, the canadian prime minister israel willing to do such a thing, and i think that the french government could do it. we have partners that can assist in an assembly of free nations in support of a free iran. i could say more, but --

>> thanks. ambassador limbert, quickly. we'll have a couple minutes left. >> very quickly. i actually agree in terms of the relation between human rights and the complication. there's a wonderful same, they say there is no color beyond black. i mean, the nuclear negotiations by all, however you look at them are not going anywhere. we talked about that. we talked about that earlier. know, the human rights issue is one, we are obliged by our own values to work on. how we do it obviously that's a good, that's a very good question from our friend here. it's a very good question. i don't have a good answer. i would say we do it in a smart way. we do it in a careful way that

we not do more damage to our friends, our iranian friends and relatives who come to reiterate the point, deserve much better than they have. >> and john cromartie any final words? >> -- and john cromartie any final words of? >> i am half canadian, have been doing such a great job and one example of that that may be can be followed is the everest awa award, since they've issued to arrest warrant, a lot of lawyers have said that there are not that many judges within the iranian judiciary who are willing to hand down jail terms are even harsher sentences for activism. there are only five or six of them who are in that circle were handed down those kinds of sentences. so make more cases like that, and it's a perfect one oh.

>> thanks very much. it's been a very rich, interesting discussion but we hope to continue this discussion and try to continue to examine this very difficult issue of how to be supportive of democracy inside iran. thanks very much all of you for coming. please join me in thanking our panelists. [applause] >> thanks so much. [inaudible conversations] >> more live coverage coming up in about 30 minutes from now with a discussion about online privacy issues. the congressional internet caucus advisory committee is hosting a panel with speakers including peter spire, a former

adviser to the clinton and bush administration on online privacy concern. and the former executive director of technology and e-commerce for the u.s. chamber of commerce. panelists are expected to examine whether a do not track law is needed to protect users and consumers. that's why the afternoon eastern here on c-span2. elsewhere in washington today, air force secretary michael donnelly and air force chief of staff general mark wells holding a briefing at the pentagon to address current and future u.s. air force operations. that briefing going on live now, can be seen on c-span and c-span.org. and the president this more and delivering the commencement address for the u.s. naval academy. he spoke of the academy back in 2009 and is the sixth president has spoken twice. in total, 16 presidents have addressed the graduating classes at the academy. you can see the president's remarks in our video library at c-span.org.

president obama traveling to oklahoma on sunday to take part in a memorial service for the victims of monday's tornadoes in the state to in the state to get into live coverage of sunday's events on the c-span networks. and we sent a c-span camera to moore, oklahoma, to capture some of the sites of the aftermath of the tornado. here's a look. [background sounds]

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>> as we mentioned before, president obama traveling to the area on sunday for a tribute to the victims. you can check our website, c-span.org for schedule updates and our coverage plans for the president's trip. >> we are standing by to take you live shortly to a discussion about online privacy issues. the congressional internet caucus advisory committee is hosting the panel and will have before you live at 12 p.m. eastern. and killed in a discussion on rural america from this morning's "washington journal." >> host: each byte in this segment of the "washington journal" we look at america by the numbers and today we'll be taking a look at how rural america is changing. as we go through those numbers

this week we are joined by john cromartie of the department of agriculture's economic research service, and jim webster of communication. during this segment we want you to call in to give your thoughts on what you are seeing changing in your rural community, rural communities in your area and more importantly why you think those changes are happening. the phone lines, we're doing a bit different in this segment, eastern and central united states can call in at (202)585-3880. mountain and pacific, (202)585-3881. as we start, john cromartie, start us off with the definition of the agricultural department has on rural and urban just so we're all on the same page. >> guest: we'll use a general definition of rural that comes from the -- rural areas may be defined for different ways for different purposes so it's

helpful to service and point of people who study world economic plans and populations change, use nonmetropolitan counties for that purpose. the metropolitan counties shown in gray which are often referred to urban counties have cities of 50,000 or more at also counties that are tied to the cities of urban counties applied to those communities -- >> in gray on that met. the big cities at the county level. the orange counties are what we are starting today, looking at today. those are nonmetropolitan counties but we also call them rural counties. and they are the counties that fall outside these large city labor market areas. and you can see on this map that it's pretty extensive territory. it covers about 72% of u.s. land area, but it includes 15% of the

u.s. population. that's about 46 million people. >> host: so we have is a chart showing today but i want to show the chart from the 1970s, showing the changes in the rural and urban population, a lot fewer urban spaces in the country back then. can you talk about some the changes in numbers that you done over the years? >> guest: it's just interesting to consider just how much rural america has changed over the years and how it's been transformed by population trends. when you compare this map we're seeing it with the previous map, you can see that metropolitan growth, urban growth and especially suburban expansion have been very dramatic over the last 40 years. and what that means is that the character of rural areas, of small towns and rural areas around the country has really been changed, very dramatically.

so when we talk about rural it's not, it's constantly changing. the rural areas were, when we talk about today, are not the rural areas our grandparents knew. >> house of representatives the numbers show between 2010-2012 rural counties uphold the client and population for the first time. talk about some of the reasons why. >> guest: part of it was the axes of young people and money and rural areas in the '70s as these maps show. that the communities and opportunity and rural areas, job opportunities were insufficient to attract, indeed, the brightest young people. they tended to move which was at little different from what we saw, say, 30, 40 years ago when there was an exodus towards rural areas, some people tired from city life. that reversed in the last decade. >> host: when you're crunching these numbers do you go out in the field and try to find out

the why behind the numbers transferred we try to do some degree. we very much depend on census numbers to do the analysis and the economic research service really is trying to provide the national picture. but i work with a lot of demographers and rural sociologist throughout the country who have that sort of regional focus to find what's going on in specific areas and just i have done some really eye opening fieldwork in remote areas and talking with community leaders about why young people are leaving and who returns. >> host: as we talk about this, it's important to note that rural doesn't necessarily mean agriculture, correct? >> guest: that's right. so i think what makes a lot of these discussions so interesting is just how diverse rural areas are. they are diverse in many ways. you have large segments, sections of the country that are extremely remote and very sparsely populated give other rural areas that are very near

metropolitan areas but another way that rural counties are diverse is in terms of economic specialization. you have a lot of low counties -- rural counties in which employment and earnings are highly concentrated in one industry, for instance, the purple counties on this map in the west, and even the great lakes region and in new england are indicating where recreation activity is particularly important for the economy, for well being, and livelihoods in those areas. the green counties show where farming is particularly important. now, of course that's not showing where all farmland is, farming is throughout the country uzbek primary importance? >> guest: right. it's particularly important part of the employment and earnings in the county. the third side of the counties in east shown in brown, and that's where the economies in

those counties are particularly dependent on rural manufacturing. >> host: the brown. >> guest: the brown. >> host: we're taking your calls in this segment and we want to hear about the changes in rome communities. jim webster, staying on the subject of agriculture for a second, is agriculture leading its clout in america? we talked about the changes in economic activities in rural america. >> if one looks at what's going on in congress right now, the answer is clear know because they are still very generous farm program expenditures being authorized in the farm bill debate. what is happening though is passage of farm bills that have very little to do with rural economic growth. that map shows that you have, say 20% of the counties where agriculture is a major factor in rural areas, manufacturing and recreation are the drivers of most of the areas. so the rhetoric on the hill

today says this is a bill for rural americans but it's really a bill for just all part of rural america. >> host: jim webster is with agriculture negation. what is that? >> guest: we are a news service, a newsletter that covers agriculture policy and politics. it's every 16 pages, every wednesday but updated, daily update on our website, www.after polls.com. >> host: you worked on some these issues and rural america on capitol hill, correct transfer it was 40 years ago in 1973 that i started as a press secretary and legislative assistant agriculture for senator george mcgovern. went to the committee in the senate and was assistant secretary of the usda during the clinton -- carter administration. and i started a new letter in 1981 and i've been reporting on this sort of thing ever since. >> host: jim webster and john cromartie are here to answer your questions on the changing world of rural america. let's go to the phones.

edward is waiting from manchester, connecticut. good morning. >> caller: good morning. i thank you for the opportunity to speak with you. >> host: go ahead. >> caller: the service you provide the american people is worth more than you pay, as usual. >> host: want to hear about rural america? >> caller: this is a philosophy to start this conversation. everything that happens in the center of the earth affects the earth's surface. everything that happens in the center of our nation affects the surface or the rural changes in our nation. i think our representatives should go after the banks first so that they have the money they need to run the country properly. >> host: edward, do you think that would help rural america? do you think of rural america

needs congresses help right now? >> caller: yes, sir. they neither service every day, and in the future, too. but everything am if anyone understands how the food chain works, in nature, then they will be able to understand how decisions that are made in our house of representatives affect everyone's lives and their communities. >> host: edward from connecticut. jim webster, what about this piece from earlier this year, talking about agriculture secretary tom vilsack delivering what it described as a dire warning to the 51 million farmers, ranchers and other residents of inhabiting rural america before a farm group in washington last month? his message, rural americans are becoming less relevant in the country's increasingly urban landscape and unless they find a way to reverse the trend their

voice will continue to fall on deaf ears in washington and around the world. >> guest: i'm sure he was talking very sincerely about his belief that rural america is lacking, the numbers we talked about sort of air out the. what he doesn't say though is, offer anyway to ameliorate that. what kind of policy, structure she would be thinking about to take care of it? my sense is that the farm bill before congress right now, the most important thing for rural america is the food stamp program. because you have many counties that are persistently poor. and just from decade to decade to decade continue to be poor, income transfers such as food stamps are a very critical part of economic activity in those counties. >> host: john cromartie, what do we know about the wealth distribution in rural counties

and numbers of poor? >> guest: the poverty rate in rural america is a little higher than in urban america. we have seen a very sharp increase in world poverty and especially in job poverty since the recession. jim is right. you can map out poverty in rural counties and you can see that there are regions of the country in the south in the rio grande valley out west that have counties that are consistently poor. they have remained poor for several decades. >> host: tell us about your thoughts for the viewers on rural america, which are seeing in rural america in their view him and why you think is happening as we go through these numbers this morning with john cromartie of the department of agriculture and jim webster of agri-pulse communications, eastern central folks can call (202) 585-3880, mountain and

pacific (202)585-3881. interesting part of these numbers, rural counties as a whole declining in population for the first time in the time that you've been studying this. take us through this chart that explains that change. >> guest: the latest count as pets from the u.s. census show a number of surprising shifts. first and foremost that rural counties taken as a whole are declining in population for the first time. >> host: this is your line here? and it's the first time is declining? >> guest: yes. the circle on the graph shows the first period of decline. the grass is showing, goes back to 1976, and issuing how their areas are change in population but it's not population and size. it's how much rural counties change in a given year, comparing that to urban county. so if you follow the red line

back to the 1990s, you can see that there was a period that people call the rural rebound. quite a vigorous population growth and in migration in rural areas in the area centered on 1994. and again in may 2000 there was a period of escalating immigration, population growth to rural areas and that's, that has slowed down considerably with the onset of the housing market crisis and recession into we come to this period where we are actually showing overall population decline. there's always individual counties and, in fact, large regions of rural populations that have declined to areas of the corn belt, these high poverty counties. but the declines in the skins have always been offset by higher growth in other counties until now. >> host: twitter, i'm from the rust belt. most of my generation, genetics, had no choice, jobs.

had to flee rural areas for bigger cities to work. >> guest: i think that, if we get to the map we will see that, this emergence of population decline is really hitting the eastern half of the united states. world manufacturing counties are showing up as declining at this time. >> host: let's go to that map that you referred to. explain what we're seeing here. yeah, so population change occurs at the local to the. it has its impact of the local of and there's a great deal of diversity in county population change. this map is showing population changes just for those rural counties. the metropolitan areas are great for we're not seeing that. focusing on the role counties you can see that for the two-year period, the latest two-year period, a majority of counties are losing population but those are the counties in yellow.

on the other hand you have several, many counties that are showing rather rapid growth. those are the dark red counties. 2% or higher population may not sound a lot but for population growth that's pretty good. that's above the national average. this pattern that we see on this map is not the pattern that we are used to seeing a row america. for instance, the very rapid growth we are seeing in north dakota in eastern montana is new. those areas have a stroke within declining in population but with the expansion of the energy sector in those areas we have seen a lot of in migration and rapid growth. >> host: jim webster, talk about some of those areas that you've been looking at. >> guest: the growth areas i pay attention to is recreation counties, the ozarks, eastern shore, the outer banks, places like that. the declining areas though when you look at the yellow areas, it

seems like they are concentrated in agricultural areas in one sense where consolidation of farms, fewer farmers producing more and more. and in those manufacturing counties, whether globalization is the culprit or other things in terms of loss of jobs in manufacturing, one can argue that all day. but those are the areas that seem to be losing. >> host: a question on twitter. how much is factory farms impacted rural america? >> guest: i'm not sure what a factory farming is. there's a concentration in agriculture that's been going on as long as i've been around, and i've been around 75 years now. starting with, the founding in 1862 when we were chartered with making one blade of grass grow,

our two blades of grass grow where one grew before, we've been pushing this consolidation of inefficiency. what we have is many, much larger farms, many fewer farms producing more and more of the food and fiber. more reliable and a cheaper way. but it has had an effect on the population of those areas that were 50 years ago very heavily concentrated in agriculture. >> host: we're taking your thoughts on rural america, changes using in your committee. david is up next from houston, texas. david, you were on with jim webster and john cromartie. >> caller: i just really do not see how this nearly enough focus placed on the whole issue of overpopulation. our population pressures are affecting every environmental problem that we have. our population pressures are

affecting food. they're affecting farming bigger affecting the loss of ecosystem, of habitats, i think, to me it's absurd, it's amazing actually that there doesn't seem to be much of an acknowledgment of the. these guests, i'm glad that they're having this program, c-span is having this program, but i just don't hear enough concern, alarm bells being raised. because it's going to affect the total decline of our whole society but until we were not able to have people employed. we are going to have, i get to see how it's going to be reversed. >> guest: so that's a very interesting point that he makes. it certainly is the case met in environmental discussions, population pressure comes up in terms of population impact on global warming. or a climate change the and certainly in international

settings, population pressures, rapid population growth is a huge issue but it is interesting as the caller points out that that is not what we're talking about here. part of the reason that is is that industrial is countries, the u.s. and other industrialized countries are really not growing as fast as they used to. birthrates are way down. the change we get from natural change, which is -- is way lower than it used to be. and in recent years immigration has gone way down. so in the u.s. context you don't hear that much discussion about overpopulation anymore. we are not going quite as fast as we still. >> guest: the challenge with population is in developing countries, where the birthrate is continuing to be high, and the challenge been is how twee produce enough food and give access and ability of those people for enough food to

prevent the what, 809 people who are malnourished in the world today. >> host: we're getting your thoughts on rural america and why you think the changes are happening that you seen in your neighborhood. changes from ringgold georgia. tell us about what is going on in ringgold. >> caller: there's three things i see, three problems. the immigration common, not immigration. people that sneak in here, the illegals. they're doing the farm work because they don't charge as much. they are doing the work and all the american farm boys, the country was are having to go to town to work. the epa is hurting the farmers. and the third thing is that people in california, i'm an ex-truck driver and a farmer, to pick the people in california don't have enough water for the farmers so they are taking, they're giving the water to the cities and the cutting down on

water the farmers should be getting because the people in california say they can get produce from other countries. i don't mean grow it all in california even anymore house of representatives take these one at a time. illegal immigration and jobs. >> guest: this is being debated right now after the memorial day recess. they will finish the farm bill and go into a comprehensive immigration bill, which goes to a lot of these problems. question on epa hurting farmers. there's been some insensitivity in epa to agriculture, but at the same time one of the most important things for the recreation counties, -- >> you can see this segment at c-span.org. we go live now to the capital for discussion on online privacy issues and they do not track law hosted by the congressional internet caucus advisory committee.

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