. . [applause]

thank you very much. you are indeed very, very kind. it is really a distinct pleasure to be able to introduce our speaker today, hawaii think will provide the very interesting presentation entitled looking at iran the rise and fall of iran in public opinion. not only will he discuss american opinion that he will also discuss the changing of opinion about iran in the arab and the muslim world where the polls show a precipitous decline in support. dr. james zogby as the president of the arab-american institute and is managing director of zogby research services with predictions of american presidential elections. they gained a lot of notoriety and attention for their

predictions in the 1996 where the final poll came within one-tenth of the actual results. they've also achieved spectacular accuracy predicting other presidential collections. now, i want to say i think it's a real honor to be invited to speak at the economic club but how many people can say my younger brother also spoke at the dee-tal-ya economic club. and his brother who i mentioned earlier was here in the fall i believe in the timber and spoke before us. so i'm very happy to have both of you here. but they've been very successful with presidential elections but i think what is particularly significant here is that they have been very successful in conducting polls and measuring opinions outside of the united

states which is in part what i'm going to talk about today. in 2001 the election of ariel sharon, the 2000 mexican election of felipe calderon in 2006, and they've conducted numerous polls in the arab countries. so, i suppose we will hear john or james zogby quoting yogi berra who said something like predictions are very difficult especially those involving the future. they seem to have a good knack at predicting the future. and i know it is through very hard work that they can get their. 1993 vice president al gore appointed dr. zogby to lead builders for peace following the signing of the israeli-palestinian peace accord. through the private sector committee he promoted business investment by arab citizens in the west bank and gaza.

dr. zogby has also been active in politics. he served on the exit of committee of the democratic national committee and co-chairs at the resolutions committee and the ethical council. dr. zogby was born into the cut new york, born and raised that you cut a few north and the son of lebanese catholic immigrants. and i believe hearing him speak to the students he is very proud of his background. he received his bachelor's degree in economics and went on to earn a doctorate in islamic studies from templeton university. a lecturer and scholar on middle east issues, the u.s. air of regulations and arab-american history, he has authored numerous books as well as washington watch, a weekly column on u.s. politics that is published in the air of and south asian countries. from 1993 to 2011 he hosted the award winning a viewpoint with

james zogby. a live program and abu dhabi. he has received numerous awards and distinctions and on every doctorates in the u.s. and arab countries including ones from his own, modern. his most recent ebook is called looking at iran. so ladies and gentlemen, please join me in getting a warm welcome to the speaker dr. james zogby. [applause] thank you very much for the introduction. i began with a bit of clarification about the biography. john is the pollster in american politics. and i think one of the best. is he who actually established brand here and has done presidential polling that has made the brand in house

recognize the house is. i had a great opportunity beginning in 2001 to take the polling to the middle east and in the last couple of years we started the research services to focus on pulling across the middle east. and in this recent book building on the work that john has done. i wanted to say something about a lesson that i learned early on in this work. reveals truth, hard truth, sometimes truths you don't want to hear or know about. you may like them or you may dislike them. but john found in the polling is when he had democrats up they loved him and republicans said he's the worst and when he had republicans up and down, the republicans loved them and democrats thought he was the worst. don't shoot the messenger. pay attention to what the

messenger is saying because it actually makes a difference. in october of 2003, we told iraq, the first time anyone had since the war. we found that the results were not pretty. they were not happy with us or the military or what they saw that they would want. they are on meet the press and cheney is on talking about a reputable poll done by zogby. he said they pulled him and they found they love us. they want us to stay. it's working and they want to be just like us. i wrote an article and i got the head line -- didn't make it up, called bin that like cheney. i argued in the peace it is one

thing to force intelligence before you go into the war but it's an entirely different thing when you are in the middle and you have your sons and daughters at risk and you get information that says this isn't working and you turn a blind eye to it and not only that but you pretend it is saying something that it's not. public opinion matters. sometimes it matters as a matter of life and death. so this issue of iran is critical and it's important that we understand. we have polled in the iran one of the elections that we called, we were closer than the iranian news agency in calling about one. we have pulled on how iranians look at arabs but this was a study that we did on how they look at iran. not that it might be decisive in shaping policy but a lot to factor into thinking about how we talk about iran, understand the role in the region and

therefore how we would be a. when you get into policy decisions about iran and its nuclear program, one would think that it's in exclusively concerned ignored completely the arab and muslim attitude especially those of iran's immediate neighbors across the water. it is known that several arab governments have a problem with the islamic republic in tehran. but what if the public opinion over the last decade we have polled on this issue regional attitude towards iran and its policies have been an issue that we have explored now going back ten years culminated in 2012 with this big study we polled 20,000 people in 20 countries, 17 and up and turkey, azerbaijan and pakistan. and that results are in the book looking at iran. it's available on amazon indian ebook form but i have copies for sale here but if you want to go

on and on and get the e-book form, i would appreciate it, my brother would appreciate it and my family will appreciate it and i think that you will learn something from it. i want to talk a little about the results today and the attitude towards iran, its people and its nuclear program in particular. there's been some dramatic changes on what we find out. we also find out that drivers behind the changes, for example when we pulled on the nuclear program and attitudes towards iran and the broad policy in the region in 2006 iran was in the world and the favorable ratings were in the 75% positive range. saudi arabia for example gave an 85% positive rate. six years later the tables have completely turned.

now iran's favorable ratings have dropped to an average of about 20, 25% and in saudi arabia is 15%. for those that argue that it's purely sectarian as the driver, understanding 2006 when 85% are having a positive reading when you are asking them to name the most important and respected leaders off from their own country, and in ranking order they give you as a top of mind they give you mahmoud ahmadinejad and brochard al-assad, the three decidedly non-sunni leaders, it is not a sectarian issue. some other dynamic was at work. what emerges from the study is that the results back then and the results now or not so much about iran itself. instead they appear to be a reaction to the arab public

opinion and its fury at the u.s., the policies that seem to deny them the control over their region and their lives canned in particular back in 2006 the israeli policy is in lebanon and palestine and u.s. policy in iraq. this was the period in 2006 that lebanon had been devastated, gaza has been attacked and the u.s. war was at its absolute low point. and so a country like iran that stood up to the mechem nations of the west was viewed as somewhat heroic. what changed is that the u.s. lowered its profile in the region. and what has also changed is the green movement in iran, which change public perceptions about the irony in government and its claim to stand for popular resistance and to stand against

the machinations of the west and what changed as well or perceptions about the policies in the broader region. what also is a factor and this is something we are going to look at is a worrisome sectarian divide that has opened up in several countries that has many factors, not just one. what's interesting in the polls though is that both sunni and shia muslims and all the countries say that they think that iran is a factor that is driving the sectarian division but there are other issues as well. clearly the role of the terrorist groups in iraq that targeted the shia muslims, the role of the denial of rights of the shia muslims in the arab gulf countries clearly the rhetoric against the community and vice versa coming from some

in iran has a role in deepening the divide but so too to the policies and that is what we were looking at. for example, we will see when we look at, the numbers that iran's policy in iraq is considered a huge factor in driving down here on's favorable ratings. what the new back in 2000 for the first time that we were on this question who is the winner in iraq? guess who comes out the winner, iran. in 2006 it was even higher and in 2008 was even higher and in 2012 they clearly think that iran was the big winner because iraq was defeated, saddam hussein was the biggest nemesis to iran was defeated and is now emboldened in the broader region. but it goes beyond that though. they see the role in what came which something here in the u.s. is a matter of saudi propaganda that the public opinion seems to think that iran is involved.

whether it is or not the perception, this is what my mom used to tell me all the time. i wasn't doing anything. she said it doesn't matter people think you are doing something take a look at what you are doing. so it doesn't matter if it is real they say that it is real and the nail in the coffin and the public opinion is syria. the country's the has surveyed believe the role in iraq is now decidedly negative in their judgment of iran. so there was a gap at some point in the public opinion and the arab leadership. the leadership oppose iran and supported iran and the gap has now been he raced. that is something that whether one likes it or not as i said that the messaging come you have to pay attention to that because the matters.

it matters now help people will be a pity to understand that i want to give you a for instance, might work here in the states. i call this the fair factor. i was jesse jackson's deputy candian member. a member moving up and doing some things that were quite interesting and opening up new african-american leadership in politics. then all of a sudden, he had come in and had made an outrageous comment. he'd make an outrageous comment and immediately he would get the predictable groups saying he must be this and what ever and jackson was in a bind because they wanted him to denounce the senators what, the people in the press would and he would say i'm not return against my community and get into a fight but why is farrakhan doing this. at one point, ron walters, who at the time had an african-american studies at

howard university and went on to the university of maryland and passed away a few years ago and was referred to as leaving it analysts of black policies. i actually think he was the leading analyst of american politics. but he was typecast and was unfortunate because he never got the recognition he deserved. but i said what is going on here? he said the reverend understands the gap that exists between black and white perception and he is the measure from black america to white america. so he knows if he is outrageous and people attack him there will be a tendency to support him because now he is being beleaguered by the very people that are being viewed as the people who are oppressing. he knew, he would make these outrageous comments and would be attacked and then come into town with a single word of advertising and draw 20,000

people to the rally because people are rallying around the attacked brother. it's much the same in the arab world. when saddam hussein was making bold and outrageous comments, he was praying on the alienation and frustration and the anger of people who feel the their history is out of control and the caribbean beleaguered by the west and they have no ability to shape their destiny. so here he is standing and defending him. james baker understood that. in 1991, he spoke before the congressional testimony that said why don't we do this and that and james baker said understand what saddam hussein is doing is preying on the air of alienation we have to recognize that and work to win the public opinion over. baker understood it and george bush unfortunately never did.

so what happened is when israel attacked gaza, wendi attacked lebanon, when the u.s. committed its outrage in iraq we lost the public opinion, and we had this little guy in tehran becoming the new hero of the arab masses saying to them your governments are doing nothing. i am the one standing up against the west. so in 2006 the numbers were up, the numbers rose has the ear of alienation and frustration grew and as the ability or the willingness of their own at leaders to challenge the west became obvious, they went down and it went up and botcharov was not went up. they became the resistance that was fighting for the arab honor in the period that was viewed after abu ghraib. it's tough. we don't want to remember.

we forget. we don't want to think about what war meant all those years or with the continued situation of the palestinians or of lebanon be leader after all these years and continually under threat it was occupied for 20 years. we don't want to think about that. but the arab world does. it is their history out of control. and so, when iran was riding high, the arab world turned to ret. president obama has had many failures admittedly. many areas of things he tried to do, couldn't close guantanamo. said they wouldn't want to. couldn't do a number of things that they lower the profile. the very thing he gets criticized for in the republican party in here generally is the leading from behind concept that

the reverend spoke of. but you know in the focus groups we did after the polling we asked them with the best thing about america was right now and they said leading from behind. they like the leader that respect and could see about in front that is confident enough to not have to take the lead for whatever reason decides i'm not going to be bellicose, i'm not going to be you are with me or against me or the wanted dead or alive cowboy mind set. that is the point interestingly enough. so america lowers its profile. iran is now seem more vividly through its own behavior rather than through the lens when iran is viewed through the lens of the american behavior, it wins. when iran is viewed through the lens of its own behavior, it loses. there is another factor and we will look at that and i met and that is the role of turkey.

if they were still looking for a hero in 2006, the president of turkey, the prime minister of turkey rather goes to a session davos where he sat with the president of israel. israel had just finished a devastating gaza and the prime minister challenge the president of israel, got so angry that he storch off the stage in a very dramatic gesture and people said in the west what is he doing? what he was doing is building up the points in the arab world. he was standing up for honor. that is how they viewed him and turkey's numbers went way up at the same time iran was beginning to dip shortly after that. i will strow you this live in a minute kuran's members have gone this way and turkey has gone out

we since 2006. , there are some policy implications to all this and i will close on that. the u.s. has experienced a slight improvement in its ratings that is true and they are viewed more positively today in the region in terms of the contribution to stability. it isn't viewed as a wild card that you don't know what they are going to do next. but we are in a dangerous era because arab and muslim public opinion are in great influx. sensitivities' remain high and interestingly enough the region is more volatile than it has ever been and precisely because new governments that have come into the office after arab spurring and old governments that remain in office are now

sensitive to these voices. when i wrote my book i said they meant to america. what is clear right now is there is a lesson in the current situation. first there is a lesson from iran. they need to understand the current isolation. it needs to understand that it is positioned precarious and cannot overplay its hand. in the passed its defiant and aggressive behavior, wants support from an appreciative regional audience now it is seen as threatening and unsettling. at the same time there is a lesson for the governments in the region. they have to address the domestic concerns and develop policies that rain and extremist groups that are fueling the

sectarian discontent and alienation in their own countries. this is creating fertile ground not only for extremists but for your non-to exploit. the situation in laufman is right for exploitation. it's not that they created it, it is right for explication when the majority community is denied rights. and other countries as well have to pay attention to the situation. and in the extremist groups going further to fuel this sectarian animosity. israel has to be reined them. it's remained a serious problem. a serious problem that cuts to the quick. the palestinian situation today will not be quiescent forever. should the palestinian situation explode with violence and repression and the u.s. should again side with israel as

expected, it would inflame regional passions and open the door that iran has closed on itself. it's also important to recognize in this situation that new governments in these countries are less able to control angry protests than they were in the past. president mubarak was able to squash everything that came down the road, the new governments in the road cannot do that before. so they are more sensitive to the public opinion because they have to be sensitive to the public opinion because they are more vulnerable. the u.s. has a lesson to learn and that is there are benefits accrued from the lower profile and an effort to work with allies from leading from behind. should the u.s. change course and resume a belligerent posture or take one supported unilateral military action against iran this would only serve to refocus the region's attention away from

iran and back on the west. that is something that america doesn't need. finally for all parties, the threats and suggestions of military action on absolutely wrong headed. this applies to the u.s. and israel and iran. the only exacerbate the tensions and play into the hands of those that have repeatedly demonstrated the ability to turn threats or an actual attack should it come to that in the increased support for iran. let's take a look at some of the numbers. i want to show you the slides your house we go forward. we polled annually from 2006 to 2011 you can see the steady job everywhere. in lebanon the numbers are higher because the sectarian divide and because of other factors that i will talk them out in just a net.

in 2012 the numbers climbed up a bit for iran and one of the reasons why, and i will show you this on this slide and also turkey one of the reasons why is because the sectarian issue. in saudi arabia the numbers went up because the population of saudi arabia got stronger support while the sunni population remained -. positive for , the role in iraq remained only in lebanon and iraq is it viewed positively almost everywhere else negatively. a note about lebanon, it is a fascinating country in this regard. while the rest of the regencies iran through the lens of its behavior elsewhere in a lebanon they see it still through the lens of 2006. in focus groups we did we ask the questions over again i was

convinced that first i said we have to do it again and we did it again and again and then we did focus groups. after 2006 the only country that stood by was iran and they didn't just invest in the south, the invested in the whole country and america did nothing for us. countries promised us money that they didn't deliver. in lebanon there's a deep division on the issue of syria, a deep division on hezbollah and deep division on the election of the next government. there's no division on iran. they get a pass in lebanon right now and it's just fascinating. iraq obviously is in a different situation because it is a majority population that iran has worked hard to cultivate and help overcome some of the wounds of the iraq war. for a country that claimed to be the defender of the resistance and the popular will and of the popular muslim whatever

whatever, the green movement took the toll. again iran gets a pass in lebanon and iraq and interestingly in yemen which has a large population and iran has been heavily involved in the country and it gets a pass in the revolutionary algeria and libya but in all of the other countries it gets decidedly negative ratings. their role in what ray nagin, lebanon not a word of criticism, iraq very little criticism and every other country got . turkey's favorable rating is again the sectarian issue look at the numbers coming from 2002 to where they are today. in 2011 labor at the peak. but look at 2012 you have the sectarian divide what you have is the issue of the population turning against turkey and

therefore driving the numbers down. does iran have nuclear ambitions? the purples 2006. that's what people said back then. does it want to produce a nuclear weapon? very low. in 2012 it has increased. do you support sanctions against iran to stop its nuclear program? in all of those countries with the exception you have the majority saying yes. look at the numbers back then only turkey was high back in 2006. but if you ask about military support for military action the numbers remain low. they've increased somewhat but still low. majority and the country's say no military strike and in the other countries we didn't pull in both years the numbers are even higher opposed and here is that worry him the little worrisome sectarian divide that's opened up.

favorable attitudes in every country except for yemen you have a deep division. it's also like that and to some degree they have less of the sectarian divide. but in other countries saudi arabia and bahrain for example it is clearly like red state blue state here in america on this issue and this one. but mitigates against this divide is the unity that exists in the countries on the culture. this is one question verses the persian culture verses arab contributions to civilizations, and iran obviously when we polled in iran they viewed their culture superior. in turkey the viewed and there's over the moon superior. in the of the arab world, there is a sense of the culture my

political support so even among the sunni and shia you get strong attitudes of the arab culture being superior. that's where i will stop and i will take any questions that you might have. thank you. [applause] >> we have received many questions, many good questions from our students and i'm going to try to summarize these together on the comics and -- topics and the upcoming election in iran in five weeks and what we see as likely happening there with that will but likely lead to some softening of iran and

some of the positions on nuclear and other issues. there is a comment about the many people seem to be saying that the candidates are emphasizing mismanagement of the economy by the government rather than seeing that as an effect of the sanctions. do we really need to worry about what they feel was an over emphasis on the issue. >> i have no idea. i don't think any of us do at this point in time because we don't know the candidates are going to look like. we have a sense of where the trends and tendencies are. there will be a moderate reformer probably. there will be a hard liner from the religious side and the current president wants a hardliner on of his allies to run. that being said i don't expect a

significant change in the irony in policy on these questions that affect the outside world. kuran's policy has been consistent from these days and in that sense of them seeking to play a more dominant role in the gulf region by any means necessary that's been a consistent feature of the iranian policy that isn't going to change. what will change is the caricature of the president of iran. the president mahmoud ahmadinejad has been an easy target for the west pity and i don't think we will get somebody like that. those that represent his tendency and even more hard line tendency are more civil appearance, more civil characters and they have a more distinguished way of presenting themselves that was precisely what made them attractive and popular as the mayor of tehran and his ability to mobilize the

popular support. i think that again the degree to which we make this issue us in israel verses iran is a huge mistake. it plays right into the hands of these attitudes in the country and don't do us any good at all. it's almost like asking for trouble. if someone doesn't like you or your best ally, making that you don't like them and you know that they don't like you, that isn't working. that is just reinforcing bad attitudes. the one reason is a more hands-off attitude towards iran right now keep the sanctions in place if you will. there's popular support for the sanctions. but their rhetoric and the threats simply don't pay. i tell them to cool their jets and leave it alone because of the end of the day i don't think

they threaten israel. i think for rhetoric threatens but iran doesn't pose a threat to israel just like i don't think they are going to do anything about iran. it's good for domestic politics. it's really good for president mahmoud ahmadinejad to say we are going to do this to israel. it's like the playground as far apart from each other making threats the have no ability on intention to accomplish because they know if they open it will open the gates of hell. i remember during the convention there were some of us that were proposing resolutions calling for a ban on first use nuclear weapons. they said there is the first or second use because you use it and five or six seconds later you're dead. it's almost like walking down the street and you come into the

dark alleys and george foreman is walking away and you say should i hit him first or wait? it doesn't matter you hit him first and your dead five seconds later. teacher trace. that is in the problem here but the problem is there is no use. i would say the best attitude towards iran's problem should have been ridiculed. it's okay. what are you going to do with it? are you going to feed your people with it? kuran's target has never been israel. the target has always been the public opinion. from the beginning and has been a challenge to the arab people your leaders don't represent islam, they don't represent the challenge that we do. we are the defiant ones, we are the leaders of the resistance komondors are weak. that has been the threat. when you introduce them into the picture it only plays right into their hands.

when we are looking at iran through the lens of the interest rather than the broad interests, we make a big mistake. i don't think there will be a fundamental change in iran but we shouldn't give provocation between now and then to give them a reason to elect a hard wind guy or make them the issue in that election. at the end of the day the one he called for his engagement. i think we've had a lukewarm engagement there ought to be not just a set down with iran that they need to be part of the regional discussions. there is no solution to iraq unless everybody sits around the table and work on it. there is no solution to syria unless everybody works on it. if we pose the serious solution as we are working with the turks and the countries and the saudis guess what we are leaving out the other side of the problem.

and so, if everybody is and sitting at the table please do the people are going to be paying into their own net advantage. that is what happened in iraq. we learned in lebanon there is no victory vanquished. you will not defeat the regime. and the opposition has to learn that. at the same time the regime has to learn that all of the brutality, all of their stupidity, all of their weapons will not defeat the opposition. at the end of the day there has to be a negotiated settlement. the u.s. and the russians have agreed to. agreeing is one thing. making it work is something else. the same goes for iran unless there is a regional security -- if we could talk to the soviet union in the heart of the cold war we could talk to the iranians. instead we have george bush going to -- going around the world giving speeches to the latter end of the iraq war

making iran into as it were the soviet union. the global threat to build their rhetoric and the language that only inflame the passions pitted and guess what? it made them bigger than they were. they can't do anything. but we made them so big we blew them up into stalin. we blew them up into hitler and he never was. they are not that big. we ought to sit down and talk with them and see how to solve this problem and they will put some tough demands up but guess what we can be tough in return but that is the way to solve the problem. >> that has given me to more questions before we need to close. there is a whole series on the nuclear development. generally where do you think this is headed and where is the headline? will it lead to israeli and/or

american involvement and of course comments about the last airstrikes and where does that lead? >> guest: they were misdirected and for israel to say that we mean no harm after killing 42 soldiers it didn't wash right. it's best for them to keep out of that right now but it is best for the u.s. to deliver on this u.s.-russian agreement to have a geneva conference aimed at not just solving the problem of creating a regional security framework that wouldn't go beyond syria. with regard to iran and its nuclear program, we came awfully

close during the midpoint in the first obama administration when turkey and brazil had gotten an agreement from here on that wasn't half bad. it blew up because they preempted the president's decision by passing a tough sanctions measure and it made it impossible for that to move forward. iran wants to have this program for bragging rights. they are never going to use it. since we committed to the atrocities of using them, no one has used them and no one will use them because there isn't just mutual deterrence, there is mutual destruction and no one is in this instance suicidal despite the fact we want to think they are irrational and suicidal, they are not. take away the bragging rights and ridicule is the better

solution. and you want it, what are you going to do with? are you going to feed your people, are you going to sit on that? the notion they would give them a dirty bomb there are dirty bonds available now if we want them from the terrorists want them they can get a handle almost anything they want to if they want to and anything can become a bomb so that issue is off the table. the issue is the threat iran poses is bragging rights across the water they want the bomb so they can say we've got it we are big. take that away by making them a year small. ridicule is better than flat. a reduced is your opposition much more effectively than the efforts you can't deliver on. at the same time one of the things i think is necessary is in the p5 plus one talks, they're ought to be the key five plus six. if we can talk to north korea and have all of north korea's neighbors involved in the

conversations because they are the ones most threatened, why is it europe, israel, russia, why is that the only factor when in fact the countries across the water are those that are most concerned about iran right now? bring them into the conversation. make them invest in in this conversation because it is in the interest of both sides of the water, not just one side. so there are some solutions that people have to be willing to i think step up and accept them and face some of the political consequences here that might come from taking tough decisions and doing it in a different way than we have until now the the way we've done it until now hasn't worked so a new way is probably important. >> okay. there is a lot of questions about the arab spring. what is your view and house iran managed to avoid the turmoil that the president and in the arab world or how did the avoid

the arab spurring? >> of the head of the iranian spurring and they dealt with it what crackdowns and devastated that movement and we saw that on a national television. was rather horrifying to see the degree to which that repression squashed the civil movement in the country. look, the arab world is going through the culture was times and it isn't pretty. revolutions never are. i wrote once if you look back at our own a revolution, it was not pretty. there were rebellions long after the initial victory was declared. there was the shays' rebellion and whiskey rebellion and a whole bunch of others and some repressions and some pretty undemocratic legislation was passed that made people shiver and shake over exercising some

of those guaranteed constitutional rights. i expect we are in a new era and it is going to be a difficult birth. but i am confident that the rules are changing and that the people are going to come out of this okay but it will take some time. the president said it best to years ago when he spoke of this department he said we didn't start it, we can't detect it, we can only help if we are needed and if we are wanted. and those were very wise words. john mccain who still doesn't get it, the president ought to be doing that in egypt and this. if we listen to that advice as if they actually want to hear from us, as if we can help right now the fact right now is we've still worn out some of our

welcome across the region, and if they are taking a more aggressive and assertive role pretending that iraq never happened and that we are still the shining city on the hill, which i long for us to be that know that we are not in the eyes of the world is wrongheaded policies. and so a little more humility pity it a little more grace and the offer to help if we can but not pretend we can beat the traffic cop directing everybody at what to do and how to do it. i think we can put some limits and say to the egyptian government you want to be a democracy you are going about it in the wrong way. we can be tough especially when we give aid we can be tough and should be tough with that but we are not going to get out of this by threats or bellicose behavior. we are going to get out of this by being very firm but very supportive when we can't and not

only of the government, i don't think that being supportive of the government of egypt is the smart thing to do. supportive of the people of egypt is the right thing to do in finding ways to move them forward is the policy that is the best for us to pursue right now. i said it's like connecticut. they make a circuit in connecticut and they go to broadway. if they work they go to hollywood. it to nisha was connecticut and egypt is broadway and syria was hollywood. it kind of work in connecticut but it's flopping on broadway and it's a disaster in hollywood it's not working but there has to be i think more of a sense of cooperation with arab leadership to find a way out of this mess. i think that to nisha is wendi fine and egypt is going to come out of this fine in long-haul broadway is going to work and take a decade to make it work.

syria i worry about that there is no victory possible. there's only a negotiated settlement that paves the way to the transitional government that does not see the sort of apocalypse where we blow everything up and comes out just fine. that is the infantile fantasy that led us into iraq and people still have this thing we will defeat the regime, he will collapse and we will then destroy them and will have a secular democracy. that isn't going to work. that isn't going to happen. what could happen is a slow steady path moving forward towards the transition and change and i think you all very much. [applause] i forgot to add aye to lebanese and i have a book to sell. [laughter] you can get them out front. that's one stereotype i go for.

it's out front but it's also available online on amazon. thank you very much. when i started to write this, there was one thing i wanted to accomplish. when you write a memoir and i have written many of them through my life, you sometimes come away asking yourself the question did i learn anything new about this public person? regrettably often i have read books and memoirs or autobiographies and i thought to myself i really didn't learn much i didn't already know from the news. i didn't want to write that kind of book. i wanted to write something different which at the end a

reader could come away and say to themselves i think i know her so what might world and intended to do is let you into my heart and soul. so in doing that i hoped to show you who are less but also a little bit of new and there was a purpose for doing that, and the purpose is captured in one part of my book. it's probably my favorite passage and so i read this to you because it summarizes one of the important reasons i read this book. it's on page 78 and it reads

when a young person even a gifted one grows up without proximate living examples of what she may aspire to become whether full-year, scientist, artist or a leader in in the realm hurdles remain abstract. such models as appear in books or on the news however inspiring more revered are ultimately too remote to be true, what'll one influential. but a role model in the flesh provides more than an inspiration. his or her very existence and confirmation of possibilities one might have every reason to doubt say yes, someone like me can do this.

so it was my hope that every child and frankly every adult that read this book at the end would say what i said during my confirmation, not my confirmation but my nomination speech, yes she is an ordinary person just like me and if that ordinary person can do it, so can i. [applause] that's what i try to do in the stories in this book, to tell you my experiences and my feelings. as i received them at the time and you will find me talking in the child of this little sonia

and then give you the reflections of the adult sonia. it wasn't easy to put myself back in time and tell you what i was feeling, but i did this for a purpose and that is to tell you what i have learned from those experiences in the process to have the hope that every single person in this room who has experienced even one of the difficulties that might face in life and those difficulties are as diverse as growing up in poverty, having a chronic disease and it's surprising how many people suffer from chronic disease and live their life never talking about it to being a child raised by a single

parent to facing discrimination and whether it is about my ethnicity or gender, or it's about my background, we each feel the sting of it in some way to simply being afraid which i think most people experience a bravado about we are okay. we can do this to the it's easy to say but hard to do. and so why talk about those things in as ordinary of a way as i can and as candid and open every way as i could. in order i hope to give people courage to rethink their own experiences. there was a second purpose to

this book because you see, the books that i loved are the books that i've read that make me think on different levels that deliver more than one message because there is a duty and read in books and discovering new things. you will learn about how what used books after my father's death to skate the unhappiness in my home and they became a rocket ship out of that on happiness. but that rocket ship that landed me in the universities of the world when i found science fiction to understand places that i thought i would never get to visit. i now gratefully have the wherewithal to do it, but i found india and africa and

places that i had heard about on a television but never imagined knowing and i learned about them through books. i hoped that every child in this audience and any child that hears me speaking understands that television is wonderful but words paint pictures in a way that nothing else can. what are you reading this summer? book tv wants to know. ♪

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and. >> outside of the system. you actually, it is so interesting to read i read about you departing congress but then a place to burn bridges that you could no longer the fill your responsibilities as a problem solver.