line. >> host: shadow mountain is your publisher? >> guest: they will be representing the and they're the ones my son went to and said i have an idea and they jumped on it they thought it was a terrific idea. i think rinaldi a big success. >> host: the best recipe? >> guest: it is not my favorite but it is my favorite to cut kids mitt favorite dinner but this is a fleet and potatoes cook books. meatloaf is his favorite food. he is not cnc that he is meat and potatoes with homemade rolls and sweet potatoes so this is a basic

cookbook for home cooking and not a fancy cookbook that i was taken in my kitchen it was mitt birthday we celebrated rather late but i do remember the first chance i had to get the family together to be off the trail for a day or to the first thing i did was get ready to cook his favorite dinner. >> host: the romney family table, salt fall 2013. thank you for being on booktv

[applause] thank you very much. thank you for coming to this book defense. it is truly a pleasure to welcome my colleagues and friends at irritated we met when he was that dia and i was at cia blunter than either one of us would want to limit but many experts in washington discuss military issues and they talk about generalizations about the status and the capabilities of the north korean military with conventional force. but to have any real expertise or military analysis but bruce bechtol is the exception is background as the u.s. marines gave him knowledge of disposition in mission and as the intelligence officer and senior analyst at northeast asia he really

worked north korea military issues as i would argue only as the intelligence analyst could put one of the few outside the community who knows whether the accord is armored, but hillary or mechanized or what the capabilities of the long-range abilities and in recent years it has been the analytic truisms we did not need to wake of the conventional forces but only needed to focus about the nuclear issue and the long-range missile issue a and analysts and experts were very decisive of the caricature and though little guy who is all we had to worry about. public a voice in the

wilderness he was warning that we had to take their military capabilities in particular asymmetric, we could not take us for granted but had to focus on that but the unfortunate and tragic act of war in 2010 served as a deadly reminder that we had to focus to maintain defense against a wide spectrum of north korea conventional military track the six through eight weeks of threats that we experienced particularly military movements in specific threats against south korean targets shows that that threat remains. the title of the book is a. [laughter] negative "the last days of kim jong-il" fifth of the giveaway to much of the book

if i see the last-- were very similar to the first days of kim jong-un and not much has changed.but as he takee is no less belligerent more dangerous than his father or grandfather so some of the questions he poses are what kind of threat is a north korean military opposed to the region? why has it stepped of violent provocation and how is the feeling with non stay actors that do terrorism affect their stability? if you know, bruce come he is very soft spoken and he is very hesitant to let you know, if he disagrees with your analysis. so please join me to welcome bruce bechtol. [applause] >> as bruce said we have

been friends for a very long time and i have a great deal of respect for his analysis. in fact,, i can tell you that his analysis of a new missile division in north korea is sexually quoted in my book which is an analysis prepared here at heritage. thank you for having me here today and allow me to get my research out there i am most grateful to you for that. my book is dedicated to my wife a and daughter and if you don't know me personally to had a quadruple heart bypass in october then my wife and daughter push me to finish the book period yeah, yeah of the living room and into the office. it is dedicated to them and next-to-last i'd like to

think the state university where i came here from which was the fourth year in a row making predestines best only one of three of the public universities is in texas to be named so and we are proud with what we give our students also figure for coming to hear both real and not consider my ranting but i am happy to talk about north korea alex forger your answer your questions when i'm done and i have a cold. you have my apologies but why i wrote the book i started when kim jong-il was still alive. about would year before he dies there is a great bit of discussion of what it means for us is that in sure many of you read those pieces but perhaps because his death is

a reason almost no literature has been published that specifically discusses the impact his last years had it will have on the future of north korea. the objective of the book "the last days of kim jong-il" has all the coverage of foreign and domestic policies have a multi faceted thread to the national security of united states to maintain the power of the regime whereas my friend calls it, the kfr1 steadier leader so the book analyzes how the final years of the regime exacerbated the threats that north korea has and continues to pose to the region in the nation states but the way i approach this is i take if you key issues that remain

important today but before i get into those 72-point out something what we're watching kim jong-un due today are the past 80 months is a script written before him before he was taken over probably drafted by his father. we're not seeing anything surprising i am sure you agree with me on that. says the key things in my mind bruce talked about it briefly the evil the military threat. have a whole chapter that talks about how that threat evolves in the capabilities they maintain that they improved a and the next chapter eyes try actual

operations and spend the whole chapter on the northern limits and their strategy where they take the conventional capabilities did attack the south and largely it is domestic but i also have a chapter how north korea and nuclear capabilities seibald during the last years of kim jong-il. some of your political scientist this chapter does not focus hardly at all of the politics of the north korean nuclear program but instead focuses on which is number three and have? how will boris korea attacked us if they decide? what do they have right now? when will it be ready? and most importantly how will the u.s. alliance challenged a nuclear attack?

with a mount a nuclear attack and the of the chapter are the nine states actors like to write a chapter on that? it supports the nine state actors take up is in the kim jong-il regime and i keep hearing people say that north korea should not be put back on the list of nations because they don't support terrorism which is not true. so in this chapter i lay out the evidence for you to see if i hope you enjoy reading that. but tied into this throughout the book including the end is the north korea succession progress and the chance of success so to analyze these factors we will be able to

understand how kim jong-il government was able to function and attempt to guarantee its success and existence to the process. everything that is happening right now has been happening since summer of 2011 because the groundwork laid a of the planning for current defense purpose of the analysis goes to the first half to help us understand the reasons for what are happening now but more important the committee will give us evidence to predict what will happen in the next two or five years. in fact, that is what my book sets out to accomplish. so please allow me to be brief but the three key

questions that i seek to answer today and in my book is how did his last years effect what happened after his death? how stable is a right now? how did this start? why did i pick 2009? one happened 2008? kim jong-il had a straight -- a stroke if he was out of it in tel jay dreary or february but at the time he also suffered from high blood pressure, diabetes pressure, diabetes, kidney problems but in that he was okay. [laughter] despites all of this he could not begin the succession progress until 2009. he had a stroke and realized he had to start the succession and it was

obvious to everybody including north korea that kim jong-il, was not to support. what did he do? there is a guy you will see in the press a lot, how did they try to affect the military during their regime? with the things that bruce mentioned was the asymmetric capabilities of what most people would consider it conventional but long-range artillery and to ballistic missiles with special operations forces. we saw a lot of trading with the increase of special operations forces but in 2006 the vitarelli converted a bunch of standard divisions and turkey are to

three and armor out. that is in example of north korea realizing with a half to do to make the military more people but but for the high-intensity, we saw that. and we saw the metamorphosis in december when they successfully launched a three stage ballistic missile platform. anyone who tells you differently that isn't true they have a platform. but the cyberwarfare capabilities so if anybody has tape on their glasses

and then with the warfare attack with a south korean business, government, and my good friend and his web site was attacked. very interesting stuff for go artillery upgrades to it a lot of people were held hostage by the artillery. guess what? fate are looking at all of soul to the area south of it but spending continued to be focused on military capabilities. a lot of people assess that north korea spends more then 30 percent.

it you can imagine that it is about 2.8%. just unbelievable. if they say throughout the book the new leadership but by the way if you're wondering how they supported this is all the money? i will talk about that in a few minutes. >> that was the military but what were his traces for a successor? why did he pick this guy who is three years younger than my son and with every geopolitical shenanigans possible in northeast asia asia, why did he do that? everybody knows about his

first son who was trying to get into tokyo disney with a fake passport and as a joke i wish it could of been a fly on the wall there. yes it was of medium. [laughter] he has a lot of street cried in his own father back in north korea and going all over places like europe in switzerland and hong kong. the second son according to the japanese chef the second was to girly, his words to be a leader in north korea for fear they tried for it didn't go wealth. he is not much older than kim jong-un but things did not work out with him said he was left with one son and

it was kim jong-un 29 years old, in 2009 he became successor is when he formally began and served by in that play in? >> and then but with this spring of 2011 and help to build up the military or have maintained it so it would pose a threat to south korea so what you do with the capabilities come to the four? >> by 2009 when we saw this stuff. >> watching a slap

imperialists in calling them wherever they called them but in but november 2010 resaw the event -- artillery shelling so they built up suspicious o'keefe abilities then kikuyu's them. but the north koreans actually developed to sell to iran because of the smallest that operates well in shallow and muddy waters and the tree in the northern limit line it is a special operations force so it is a marine. but most people we have

military guys here in the audience would acknowledge self korea artillery is as good as america's and a lot of it is digitally reproduced so why is the old soviet artillery able to attack the south korean island but they cannot even strike back as quickly as they want because they pleiad ridiculously for this and they could overwhelm by putting artillery right across the floor all the way will tell you that ain't going to happen again. the south koreans are ready for those attacks now which is interesting about this but the succession process and a few months after this happened both were exhibited to said genius of someone in the military but someone who

hawk will have to tell me and how to apply it to put you really think kim jong-il plants that? the thought would negative a final letter were sitting in the room but this is what i of talking about part of the propaganda indoctrination process that is what is needed to maintain. what else did kim jong-il due to lay the groundwork for his seven? i will also assert he kept up their nuclear program that we sought a test of february this year. in fact,, my guess is, in the assessment not a conclusion based on the fact

the every and visited the test, based on the fact that it was a smaller white terror weapon in an end to it was a smaller white terror weapon in an end to trying to make sure as no particles but it seems they have information that could do when we're the of their. that is my guess. mentioning year uranium, coal operation but during the final days to step up as it is now. the shares year radians paid hundreds of millions of dollars per year with

conventional weapons to and even for staff in a very important for the cash flow the real economy. and handed it is important 2.0 this program he failed to use sunscreen that is now carried on by his grandchildren. believe me the north korean sees it that way but it is part of the dynamic process but this by the great leader has a leader. with a habit brings us up-to-date with february and then i thought what we do with those capabilities and to talk about recent

initiatives so hopefully they will enjoy reading that chapter. there is more that kim jong-il did to said his son up in this is probably the most enjoyable chapter i really enjoyed it. they have proliferation to the state and nine state actors. we need state actors that also supports terrorism terrorism, iran, syria, i'd begin is very interesting we have not seen a lot ii'd begin is very interesting we have not seen a lot in the news. with just so you know, it surprise -- supplies a lot for the syrians and things such as a chemical weapons facility, artillery, a scud missiles, a lot of stuff.

but in the chapter that i like to take you from power and started to where they are today it originally started with the cold war with a number three was doing the bidding of the u.s.s.r.. in 1980 when they were cut off from the u.s. he took the networked in they could start using those to setup new networks of places they couldn't supply to ainge non stage actors. we will give you examples we have data to prove it. but now they support the tigers said is the best customer right before the army drove them into the sea. irate, counterfeiting,

obvio usly the every be a republican guard court and according to some sources but i could not verify even al qaeda back in 2007. so to include those side right now on sale period if i can give you just one example of that and not talking about hezbollah they buy a short but also directly and i can give samples of all three of those. they also trained the hezbollah guys about when a tree commanders met back to north korea after the war with the israeli defense forces in restraint by the recall and team is one of

the leaked arms of the special operations force and they would also build facilities like massive miles long underground cities amid difficult to get at them. important to note it goes on today under kim jong-un. why do they do this? ideology? despising the united states? >> is semidesert but these are highly profitable activities that support the military and that is what is really going on. these are the things that were stepped up to the and of the kim jong-il regime that we still see today. what about 2010? and 11 resaw him come out but how did he set up?

in 2010 he was appointed vice chair for the military commission and given positions of these securities services. the young general was surrounded by senior level people who shared his power base but at the same time younker members of the elite were rushed to keep positions but unfortunately they were no more experienced than kim jong-un and how does that work out? so what does the young general need to survive? by the way it is also the name of my wife so right before we move to texas people would be talking get

you. she says it don't understand but it was interesting. [laughter] but what the leader needs to survive in order to keep the country from imploding we must above power base jessica's father and grandfather to have the support of four key institutions party, military, security services in that byzantine thing which is called the inner family circle of kfr. this is not some type of weird nebulous but the sons and grandsons and a great-grandson is the of the people who came up and they're still there. they are the of the royalty and the nobles in the family that is running things away in the family works is not

hierarchical but it is him in the middle of the circle and they feed to him. since 1948, but not even the ready controls the entire institution but he was there it was kim jong-il and it is now kim jong-un the views of a capable leader, you have a problem. so what are his chances of survival since he is three years and under them my oldest daughter and has a bunch of negatives going against him. think, practical and to common-sense. kim jong-il had 20 years. when his son died 1984.

>> host: two is already headed the party in the marshall in the army. kim jong-un had net of these physicians when his father died but as my good friend whom i had lunch with today said something from about five years ago that kim jong-il is weaker than his father but how much weaker is the next on? that means how long the machine can survive. fact is an issue. what is the solution? currently we have a caretaker government. kim jong-il tracinda visors

helping the government as the face but as i said yesterday how much in charge is kim jong-un? i said those institutions and feed into him but even as an annuity is doing yet but we keep open. think about that. the nation of 22.5 million people is the way it is working rainout. no one man truly controls that government. that is a problem because that is more than we have spent if it has never operated this way before. that means the government at the pprk is at its most people there is no getting around it. since i have given you this depressing set of circumstances, what can we

expect in the next two or five years? kim jong-un will need time to build a power base that he did not have with his father died like kim jong-il had but the key institutions are running different than there were in the past, the leader does not have the background or experience to make these judgment calls. >> if a real crisis occurs occurs, and not sold generated it could cause the government to employ of your x plug or fall into anarchy. with the negatives? when we talk about that. together stuff was not a negative? [laughter] some of the scenarios that i have seen talk about in the press i talk about this in the book as well with the military to i think is highly unlikely because of

the power of the securities which is one of the key institutions they rely on each other and in spite of their people and. if you are a general handy plan exercise there is a guy from the military state security department so how many people saw the hunt for red october? day remember there is a scene where sean connery us to kill the political officer before he can take over? if you're in north korea you have to kill to because they have to overlooking your shoulder area within the power structure of the the army the general political bureau has always been the most powerful or one of them because that is to the kim

family has always trusted. i don't think that is likely. to rethink this is unlikely because of the security services in their reviews watching everybody else. what about a civil war? this is possible if the military splinters' because of lack of control or if they start fighting each other it could just be kim jong-un to don't have that kit -- an adequate control of the military. but the scenario the figures most likely to happen is collapsing and this will happen if kim jong-un or someone does not consolidate power for north korea. we have not seen that yet. so this is something we will be watching i think all of us will. so what if it kim jong-un

consolidates his power? if he can it is possible the government will stabilize. instability is to occur it can only happen in this a model as kim jong-il and his father used kim jong-un cannot take a new script to say this is our run the country. it will not happen he can do it is not possible under this system. which is why we read this stuff from georgetown gave talks about the so-called economic reform that kim jong-un was talking about in the shooting -- initiating but in order to simply survive you must follow the same script and he cannot get off that script.

so following bad means brinkmanship and continued proliferation to the rogue states to elicit activities with massive purges in tripoli and we have seen all of that since kim jong-un took over in 2011. delete better part of that family circle, they want him to succeed because they know you have to have a guy from the kim family running the show but can he do it? that is a question that is not answered. what is my assessment? that kim jong-un has the 5052 ince and some of you will ask me why you save 50/50?

i say i don't know. [laughter] we're guessing. i think that is still up in the year. with the implosion or explosion or civil war are the more likely scenarios. just like washington in the prewar must plan accordingly collapsed most likely means it is unified by force under a liberal democracy. in my mind, i say this in a book but for them tuesday by fed controls the government it means the instability but i will stop there. [applause] >>.

>> the question that often comes up is to what degree denis kim jong-un call the shots? is simply following the script by his father? is he pursuing the policies he wants to or really against his better judgment having to do the provocations because of the hard-liners and the military security? >> that is an excellent question and i thank you know the answer already. people talk about the government of north korea like the prc. it is not you like him or you're 6 feet under.

if north korea took a softer stance it was because kim jong-il wanted it it was harder is because he wanted it did his generals suggest things to him? absolutely but you agree with the cheerleader or you ended up in camp 913. it is a little different now because it has to be under kim jong-un because the biggest problem is he does not know what he does not know and does not have the background or experience to make these judgments calls that the leader has to make an just doesn't have that experience or background to so i believe, they're not ordering him to do anything but he is taking a lot of advice to run the government

because i think right now they're trying to help kim jong-un make the decisions even though he can't yet and if the government stabilizes over the next five years, then things may go back to the way they were. we will have to see but right now his judgment is weak because of the lack of the power base if he just doesn't have the background or experience or the street cried. does that answer your question? >> there is a new report that came out but it''

sources in beijing that the chinese government has developed a plan for bringing down kim jong-un to replace it with the older brother who i think is in macau right now. and of the squeaky and make a judgment that with the kim family circle in your research did you pick reconaissance of how much of the inroads has the chinese-made into the death of tel but with the influence with his family

circle a lot of them to go to china with the luxury goods but they're more of exposed to the chinese to some degree more than the masses of the north koreans. >> that is a great point. by the way you're also in my notes in the book. but the chinese are said to be deep to get along well with him. and as you said there but the often officials were we could trust to go back and forth across the border. who perches luxury items in china? i don't think that means that i can see that has inroads into the governmental infrastructure of north korea.

i just have not seen that. that may have been more so as it is much less stable except during the stroke period. maybe they can make but they were very standoffish with the chinese although they both went to beijing to do things for the chinese. it will be interesting to see how kim jong-un and works with the chinese. . .