muslims. i call those people islamists. they say the whole time what their intention is to re-create the old islamic caliphate the old muslim empire to go beyond that and to conquer britain, to conquer america. they are very explicit and to impose sharia, the rule of the islamic law upon anywhere that muslims lived. those are islamists in some of them are violent in some of them equip themselves with the weapons of war and terrorism. some of them are not violent but believe that they can conquer the west there a kind of cultural creep if you like, a kind of the cultural takeover. we should also be extremely worried by them. they are all islamists. some of them are violent and some of them are not violent. on the other hand there'll

several muslims were not islamists and we must keep them in our mind. there's difference between those that interpret their religion that threaten us and those that prescribed to islam that are muslims who are themselves threatened by these islamists and we must keep those two things i think in our minds at the same time and that is what i've tried to do. when i wrote my book that was about what i perceived of the case which was the way in which to my great horror and fear the british ruling class was giving in to islamism to this attempt to takeover, this attempt to undermine britain and the encroachment of islamic values in britain and the british for a variety of reasons was basically saying let's go along with this. that is why i have written londonistan but i was extremely

careful to acknowledge that there are many muslims who find this equally frightening and whirring and have nothing to do with it. next peter doherty a prize-winning immunologists and chairman of the immunology department at saint st. jude's talks about the history of pandemics and discusses examples of current ones including sars, h1n1 and hiv. this is about one hour and 15. [applause] >> thank you. i am in portland wearing a tie. it's kind of a surprise to be here launching two books. how did i come to be writing two

books? the book on pandemics, this one i was asked to write by oxford university press and it appealed to me that i was wondering whether i was quite the right person to do it. pandemic infections are an enormous topic and it could've been written by an epidemiologist someone who studies infection. my particular interest is in the nature of infectious disease, how we deal with infectious disease and how our immune response deals with infectious disease and how disease causes the damage that can lead to and outcome. i am kind of the disease and death guy. that really turns me on. i thought about it and i thought whoever writes it look on this it would need very different depending on their particular background so the this is my

band of the book and it's kind of an unusual book. it's a question-and-answer book because it's part of a series called what everyone needs to know in that series has titles like food for the world and so forth, what everyone needs to know. the catholic church, what everyone needs to know. i have lot that one and i haven't read it yet but i feel like i need to try to find out. and this is "pandemics" sub live and it's really an experience to write a question-and-answer book. i'm a scientist and being a scientist, tiberi collegial activity. we do research. someone like me works with a lot of young people and i work with smart young people and for the last 20 years we have written largely on influence of because influenza is our main pandemic threat the main one that we know about. if you do research and you work with young people and then you were writing up the papers and

doing the experience there's a constant back-and-forth between you and the people in the lab and you are working on the manuscript and asking questions and so forth. on the other handwriting a book like this "pandemics" book is a totally different experience and of course writers go on at length. the lock yourself away in a room and you don't talk to anybody and you just write. that is bad enough but if you think about it locking yourself away in a room inventing questions and inventing the answer can't it's a very strange experience but it's fun. it was fun to write and is hopefully a very clear exposition. when a scientist like me writes a book one of the things we absolutely have to do -- i know from talking to my literary friends that as soon as they encounter a piece of

technical jargon that's the end of the book. they don't read any further so i had to try -- you have to try to seduce people in dealing with some of this. it's a very complex topic and so fortunately writing for publishing house like oxford university press to your editors are all literary types. they are not scientists so if you can get stuff past them you can get it across to pretty much anybody because they are very accustomed to making people write clearly and write easily. i had to do a lot more work than i expected. i thought this would be an easy book to write. as i went into it i actually found there were a lot of things i didn't know all that much about that i thought i knew about them. that is often an experience we all have. we think we know things and when we go to write we know how much our knowledge is superficial.

i had a lot of help. i'm a lab type guy. i like a lot of help from people who deal with infectious disease out there in the community in developing countries particularly because that is where a lot of these issues are likely to first arrive. so kind of in and shooting book to write and an interesting to write a question-and-answer book i will tell you more about it later. the other is halpert sports health threats to our world is a different type of book and it was a book that i read for my own interest. i am in my 70's now. i have been a very focused dedicated loop laboratory researcher but one of the things that happened to us as we get older we tend to back off a little in a obsessive compulsive bit which is typical of scientists and we began to smell the roses.

i have got more interested in what's going on around me. the other factor is, because i'm trying to -- and i'm the first set to win a nobel prize i was hearing all sorts of interesting stories. if you go to medical school which was in my life for the last 40 years talking to middle middle -- medical researchers you do you hear interesting stuff but if you go to the schools they have totally different stories and a lot of the stories are unfamiliar. they started to get very interesting stories about birds. these stories -- i would sort of talk to people and talk to friends who are interested in infectious disease and they wouldn't know anything about the bird aspect and then i would talk to other friends and they didn't know anything about the disease aspect so i thought, going to put this together? there was another loud ovation for writing the book and that is i wasted after writing the two books that are worth mentioned earlier i wasted 80 months

trying to write a novel and it turned out to be the worst novel ever written. my climate change murder mystery was -- out of the bottom drawer. i had the experience that sometimes one has and signs that everything i try to do to fix ft made it worse. it was the classical example. you start with you think might be a piece of gold and you quickly slowly and progressively turn it into lead. that is this book. writing a bird walk is getting back into writing. this book was published last year in australia and was published under the title sentinel chickens that tell us about our health and the world. on the cover it had it too can holding a key. the publishers have taken in the

tightest states an sentinel chickens as a title and they hated the cover but they liked the book so it's got this new meme. i was very pleased and they told me. it would going to have an english al on the cover and when i see the book it's got a pigeon on the cover. [laughter] the english owl is a pigeon. i think it's quite a nice cover and i quite like the title. it's a bit pretentious. i don't know why they didn't like sentinel chickens. what is a sentinel chicken? flocks of words halfway around the countryside to monitor the spread of viruses that transmit viruses to birds and then they multiply the birds and mosquitoes feed on the birds and sometimes they are transmitted to us. there are several chickens

around the united states little flocks of them and the public health authorities put them out there and then if they are bitten by a virus like west nile virus it doesn't kill the chicken. the chicken recovers and makes antibodies and you can tell it's had west nile. we use in australia similar types of viruses and it's a well-known technique. i don't know why our american publisher does not like sentinel chickens. i thought it was a pretty good title. maybe it could've been chickens sentinels which means calgary soldiers which is totally unsuitable. i'm not sure. that is where it stands. the pandemic's book the pandemics book deals a lot with tuberculosis and the big threats that are out there. and also the chickens book has

three chapters on implants of because in both cases the influenza viruses maintain a in nature as diseases of water birds and the bird book tells the story of how that -- we didn't know this before the late 1960s. it was put together by two friends of mine. these viruses are maintained in true water birds. why is that? influence of viruses and birds grow essentially in the intestinal tract relatively asymptomatic but the virus survives well in are and it infects just about all species of water birds and impacts many species of mammals as well. the influence of viruses is in whales and seals and leopards and now we have just found one in bats. there are 16 different types of these things and birds were as only three --

and having a virus that survives well in water that affects different species of water birds is a fantastic way to maintain nature because even though the virus changes and they change a lot these viruses as we know because we have to keep developindevelopin g vaccines against the standard strains of influenza and we have to get a new vaccine. even if it changes in a bird species and becomes highly fair lands which happened with h1n1 bird flu of 1995 -- birds of different species they are as different as we are between each other as we are from pigs or horses settled a virus would when the h1n1 virus mutated it killed jesus. it killed swans and killed flamingos but it did not kill ducks and the ducks carried the virus across into western europe and north africa were it's still

going actually and north africa. the bird flu was a big scare for us of course and we went through this whole exercise. it's an extremely virulent virus that which was killing 60% of the people it infected. it started to spread between us rather than from birds to us. fortunately that hasn't been happening though it still infects the occasional person and the story of why that is in the bird flu book and some of it's in the pandemics book but in much more detail in the bird out. the reason the bird flu virus hasn't spread between us we are not totally sure. we do know -- mammalian cells and the people who have died from the bird flu got a big dose of the virus. the classical case is a little

farmer in indonesia or southeast asia and this virus hasn't moved out of eurasia and africa. it's never crossed into the americas. they realized the authorities are going to come along and kill it out so they decide they're going to distribute the chickens around the family so they can be at least get a meal out of them so they get the bird to the sun for instance the sun for instance and the stuff sit down his shirt petals off on his bicycle and gets an enormous dose of virus up of his nose indicates deep into the lung and it becomes lethal. it hasn't materialized. we are worried at the moment about a virus called h. 109 which is in china and it's been coming out of live bird markets and infecting humans and it's killing 20% of the humans it has infected. we are very much on top of it and don't think it will be a

problem but who can tell. we don't normally get the flu from birds. we get it from other people. they jump occasionally from birds and other species of to us. we transmit the virus and the virus flies but it flies with us. if you have someone on the airplane with the influence of virus the problem with the flu is that you can be infected and pushing out a lot of virus. early on he don't feel sick so you are very infectious that you feel good enough to take the trip you are supposed to take for a vacation. this virus doesn't go through the air system on the plane but it can infect people two or three rows away. the main thing though is people that are infected go to new cities and infect the people they are and that is how the flu gets around. these viruses come out of the

swine flu was probably in australia before we ever isolated it in the united states and that went around the globe in a matter of months. the flu virus in the u.s. will go around the whole country in six weeks and transmits very readily. the west nile virus on the other hand came into the u.s. in 1999 which was killing birds in new york city causing occasional cases of fatal encephalitis brain disease in humans and is maintained in a bird mosquito life cycle with us being occasionally the victim. that's virus rather than getting around the united states in six weeks as influence it does and a respiratory infection the bird mosquito lifestyle took four years to get from new york to the west coast. so a much slower transmission then the influence of virus.

there are various stories. the west nile virus is of course not likely to be pandemic because pandemic means global and they are limited by the distribution of mosquitoes. one of the things to define the book on pandemics is what actually is a pandemic and they are not that many definitions out there really. there is a sort of confusion. the world health organization which is the organization of disease pandemic infections has the definition for influenza which depends on the spread trained the different regions ordered different w.h.o. regions. the world health organization has a divided up into regions that are not geographic. when you get an influence of virus it starts to spread within one region quite widely and they call that a level 5 pandemic.

when we get is spreading between two different regions we call it a level 6 pandemic so when it was announced in 2009 the swine flu was a level 6 pandemic everyone became terrified because they thought this was some terrible disease which is going to kill us all off and we all think of the 18 -- 1989 pandemic where 50 to 1 million people died but the definition to the world health organization is the definition of spread. it's not a definition of severities of the confusion in the public mind about what pandemic stands for and it really needs to be put straight. we need to have a descriptor that talks about severity as well as the spread. the swine flu the pandemic of 2000 mind went around the world very fast. it was a virus that came through pigs and the american pigs got together with a eurasian virus and the eurasian virus got to

mexico and there was a on a picnic holiday that was infected or whatever but what happens is the genetic veteri was in six different it's and if the cell gets infected with two different flu viruses you can get a completely new virus out. the virus part of which was the same as the 1918 virus because the humans -- relatively stable and pigs that virus by bringing to the viruses together we have a virus that is reince factious in humans. you're calling it a pandemic but it wasn't that bad. people over 50 who were born before 1950 had antibodies that protected them against it because it was a similar virus before 1950. the elderly who normally suffer the most from influenza were not infected.

it was very bad and affected a number of trade in women. a number of young people had to be brought through the crisis on the lung machines and also it was very bad and some indigenous communities in australia and the united states and cost a bad outbreak in india. what is a severe pandemic in one type of culture is not nearly so bad in others and of course the populations that are the most vulnerable are those in the poor countries with poor nutrition and so forth. there is quite a bit of about influenza because the biggest pandemic we circling know about. of course there are enormous amounts of hideous viruses out there. this is a bat virus that comes out of nowhere and we didn't know until 2002 that actually

fruit bats are maintaining a whole spectrum of viruses. we learned that when science came along. before that we knew the rabies viruses were carried by vampire bats in south america for example and we knew in some places elsewhere that closely related virus contracted as the result of a bat bite. then suddenly stars comes along and gives us an enormous shock because it's a respiratory pathogen. it's not influenza. they worked it out in three months what it actually was and it was a world health influenza. it turns out if and when it was was a virus that came out of bats and it went into civic cats a little animal in southern china in being used for food that comes out of the forest areas and it infected humans in the life animal markets.

it spread very quickly and spread to hong kong and spread to singapore and spread to toronto. they were the main areas infected. the only area infected out of asia was actually toronto and still it killed it 800 people. normally in the united states 25 to 40,000 people die every year of influenza. this killed 800 people in total. this was a new infection and because it was not identified initially and because people were dying horribly and particularly people in hospitals were dying, there was a great deal of fear. in the end it cost $50 billion in economic loss due to people not traveling in people not using hotels and buying stuff. it was a major economic problem and that is really what alerted the world to the fact that respiratory infections can be extremely dangerous.

that really convinced various governments to take it very seriously. also convinced are the people in power that is not just the poor that get infected and even they can be infected. that was one of the reasons why they took the h1n1 bird flu so seriously. in contagion at the same situation. you have of virus that infects a pig. the pig is then butchered by a chef. the chef shakes hands with gwyneth paltrow who then even though she is not feeling very well takes it back to the u.s.. she stops off a bit in chicago where she has something of a liaison and then she goes back to family in minneapolis. this virus is worse than any virus we have ever seen. anyone who even opens the car door gets infected, dies and

infects lots of other people. it's most hideous fires in the world. it's well-made and it's made by steven soderbergh and the actual control of the science is by a very good virus disease medic at columbia university. there are a few things that are unrealistic like the fact that they are killing hundreds -- hundreds of people are dying and dying horribly and very quickly. and they seem to have three people working on the problem. that's a big point it might pandemic's book. what is really important is we maintained the stature of our public health services because they are extraordinarily important in taking -- one of the things we can all do as citizens particularly in the

last word democracy is so strong as to make sure that they public health system is fully maintained. they are the sorts of things that can be knocked off by -- and people don't even notice until something goes wrong and it's a real problem. we see the top of the head taken off and it's not for real of course because it's a plastic dummy or something. i think she is the worlds most beautiful beautiful woman which means she is not dead but it's kind of entertaining for people who art interested in disease and death. anyway infectious disease, of course when the west nile virus came to the united states it almost knocked out the magpie which is the state bird there. we had a bad outbreak last year which really kind of surprising because it was a very dry years but what happening --

because it was dry out the birds were came in together in the same water sources in the mosquito was transmitting it to and relatively resistant to the dry conditions and the mosquitoes were breeding in the sewers in the cities. we had a bad human embryo -- outbreak and when you get these viruses in it does impact the whole area and west nile at the turn of the 20th century and united states it would go up as far as the sir liar -- sir lawrence waterway so it really did go up the east coast. these insect borne viruses and beleria we keep that day by spraying and of course that was ramped up with this kind of incursion. the other mosquito story is about the birds and hawaii. it turns out that the wild species and the bird species that were in for why he sayeth the turn of of the 18 and 19

century about half of those are gone and they have been largely wiped out by avian malaria. this is not a disease that transmits to us. it's only a disease of words and it seems that the malaria parasite was probably there at the turn of the century but had probably been there a long time. what happened was the mosquito is introduced and transmitted it very readily. there is an account by a missionary who lives in the hawaiian islands from 1820 or something like that. it brought water bottles of sure and emptied them out and then he says the paradise that was hawaii came to an end. of course they made no connection between mosquitoes and disease. in fact we didn't even understand of infectious disease at that stage until louis pasteur comes along in the mid-19th century and shows the

principles of infectious disease. that story is actually in the bird look. so also ronald ross who is the guy who studied birds. ross was a british medical doctor working in the british indian central service. the influence of india was queen victoria or whatever so ross got interested in malaria and he was studying malaria in some of the coastal cities where there were a lot of malaria cases. the bug was multiplying in the mosquitoes and then he got transferred to a town where there was very little malaria. what did he do? he realized he knew that words also had their own malaria strains so he actually studied the disease in birds and worked out malaria in birds.

that won him the nobel prize. he won the nobel prize in 1995. if you read -- you can go back and read the nobel and the biographical details being provided. you have to write a lecture and you have to do a biographical sketch and you can read ross is in its very dangerous thing. ..

>> some about birds in and how they enforce the us but others how birds tell us so much about cancer. there is a little bird the virus discovered so with a medical doctor found he could transmit these after the ground up a tumor was filtered. all the tissues to come out and he transmitted it to. nobody took much interest

they just thought it was a bird thing but then another came along in the 1930's he isolated a couple of irises -- viruses. then people were interested because they realize these mammals were transmitting the and there were a whole lot discovered in mice so people were sold on the idea of viruses going to cancer but peyton rous got the nobel prize 50 years after the discovery and and then the virus is used with the

enzyme that copies genetic material. and knowing about that also tells us of a tremendous amount because that is what happens. then another couple of scientists use that a virus for those genes that are transformed for a number of cancers. one is the bad cancer and with the birds monitoring the world i have been very engaged by climate science and climate change but it is a false debate because we know what is happening but as a biologist a don't really have any true expertise in the type of science that informs the

climate change discussion because that has been the realm with the oceanographers in the glaciologist in all these people astrophysicist who really tell us about the science of climate change. but climatologists look at the readout of what is happening with climate change. we have a lot of people in the marine science community looking at what is happening with penguins and calcified organists -- organisms as another aspect is the co2 growing there is calcification see you have decreased calcium problem already on the washington coast with real problems of oysters because the water is too acid. we're getting those readouts but if you look at those it

is really what is happening with birds. because whispered they are not only everywhere, very large numbers of people because we have the birdwatching community we have the christmas count and the bird project in people who are extremely interested i thought if i will buy about environmental degradation in a fight going to write about climate change, and then birds are the species to look at because we see them all the time and we can see what is happening. in general the birds continue to move away from the equator or those subsets

will become more dominant. it can also become smaller which says it doubles in the climate will tend to be smaller. and then the other thing is i had not really connected how to put this together there is many -- money available for ornithology because they want this for ever but there is no real money for the studies of birds. the way this is done the scientist to get together with diverting organization then polish and the volunteers to accumulate the data set that is so important to an understand what is happening.

the observations that are done also people volunteering in the summer so you take for kinins and cannonballs you fire them off over the birds then you can weigh them in record them that you can put tracking devices by satellite and kept its -- many very drinkable migration patterns. the number of free birds globally are down by 50 percent into this is all over. with their habitat degradation in australia we are extremely worried along the china sea is industrializing in doing the same thing we did to fill in the marshland and turn into a factory and a golf course

and we have birds that come down from the arctic almost the antarctic in the various uses for breeding and food and so forth and we're extremely concerned what will happen with those. also the little red not going from the sea to breed in the canadian arctic but when it gets there it is in the summer but it stops in delaware to refuel with crabbing now mr. to use the horseshoe crab as bait so the density of crab cakes in the bay dropped dramatically so did the number of these little birds. it is a practical example how you do one thing and modify the ecological system with larger consequences with other species.

another story is what is happening with the vultures in india. 90% in india have been gone that you would get pitchers there's usually a blend of cultures he think doesn't really matter? they are not lovable or a nice bird but they are important because with their culture they let the cattle die and they leave little use it for anything because it is sacred. they use them when they are live for milk so it is not that they're not part of the economy so why are the

soldiers dying? it is a strange situation because when they open of the vultures they found instead of the usual color you see inside the dead animal they were totally white because they were voted with uric acid crystals. they had doubt -- urea is soluble in it is crystallize that is why bird droppings are white because it drops out uric acid. if you were bombed by the bird it just does not have a bladder. was happening is there ever been totally destroyed so they thought it could be a virus to isolate.

and some people from oregon all kinds of people they isolated some viruses but it was not a virus. what has changed with respect to the cattle? with the vultures do is they're the cleanup service for india. they clean up the dead cow prove pan take up a the soft tissue just like the bald eagle -- all the goals and the bears do here. if he goes to whom washington after the seven have died the cleanup is done as the eagle in the bear we think it as the symbol through rolled up through the middle ages of the eagle even the nazis had ego we have legal but actually it is a cemetery worker.

-- sanitary worker. they do wonderful job. they thought maybe something is being done to the cattle and they found when the cattle got sore joints the of that would treat them with a drug a perfectly good drug in us but in birds it is totally toxic to the vulture. and other birds. what was happening a cow that was treated would die in the vultures would strip it in one dead cow loaded with this drug could kill 900 vultures and that is what was happening. trying to get anything done in india is not easy but

because now there are the dead cattle and will vultures' then the number of dogs increased, while dogs in for a time with the initial years they had 50,000 excess rabies death then they started to sterilize the dogs and the vaccine so they brought that problem down. the other consequence was when they die they dismember the corpse implanted on a stone table to be stripped by vultures. friends of mine said to be waiting for a bus then the human hand would drop. said they were reading their own cultures. it was worked out and i

heard this story in south africa at a veterinary college that is where they worked out the diseases of africa. and those that were helping mcveigh gave it to the african vultures in they reproduced with a very simple experiment and it just shows how they come together. another topic is the effect of the condor almost wiped out damaged, with water birds at least in the wet areas it is a and because when people go duck hunting they shoot the duck very little of the lead shot hits the bird and if you did of course, you would not have

any bird left. 70,000 tons of lead is put on american fields every year and birds pick up stones to grind them in their gizzards and then they pick up the lead shot and it kills them so led a shot and sinkers have actually been banned for some time and the ducks unlimited organization to make this happen with an organization to do something that most birders to not think is great and to keep the population numbers up.

one the bird is wonderfully different from us. but to be interested in birds very much about animal production we all want to go out and grapple with cows and now the girls to do it they grapple with the cows and the horses. so we did not have much interest but we are really into it a goose can fly over mount everest with no problem at all but of course, we cannot climate unless we are exceptionally fit with oxygen in the physiology that we talk about actually the doctor on the hillary expedition then decca of american medical

expedition so nobody claims of wrist fit or not without some brain damage. so then you worry but your brain function. even for humans to climate the most important thing is is to naturally hyperventilate when they are asleep can climb much higher than those who don't. the bird has a different type of long. if flows through hours comes then and it mixes so we always have a mixture of inspire an expired darr. but the bird breeds the fresh air in so some comes straight into the loan so bypasses going to the couple's stereo air sacs. when the bird breeds out if

forces fresh air from the post your air sac through the long so the bird is always breathing fresh air where we have a mixture. also having that flow through long does not have to expand or contract, the actual structure is more rigid that means this cell layer were through the oxygen has to do is much thinner so the birth long as much more efficient than ours and is more like a dinosaur long. so it is fascinating to find that out but as i travel around i kept collecting them in cambridge raise the water the good bird stories? the friend of my work done the immune system he said you have to talk to mickey

is said she is really something. she took me to her college she is a fellow of the royal society and she is a bird psychologist also a ballerina and rights choreography. although in her richer years a very fine looking person but she tells me about the experiments a lot of people in the broader community think it is difficult and everybody can understand what she does so they fly these enormous distances and

avoid the winter wheat of those the got to give us some that come down to austria there often quite small birds but those who stay put in the cold of the northern winter have to find food. so she tells me a bird can hide to thousand pieces of food and then find them in the winter. think that is pretty impressive. the devil is very simple what she had she would get a cage to fill its full then another cage with a single bird.

it would be given a tray of couples and a tray of cnn food. -- say and and food. >> if there was a curtain put down the single bird was aware the other birds were there and if it would be seen if the curtain is down the bird with the food hides it in the sea and silently a thicker in is not down knowing it is overlooked hides the food in the couple's because if you retrieved it you have to make a noise. it is a fantastic demonstration house smart birds really are. so a lot of things in the book was people becoming

involved in science people who have no training are never think of taking a science course to be passionate and contributing to real science. but a lot of the time we try to tell people with we king get them to approach it from the bottom he accused of various organizations more and more people are using it because if you organize with some steady in to get the numbers with regular studies of course, they have the

christmas count than the july butterfly count so i think citizens sciences what you want to promote to get more people feeling that science is something that they understand and that is part of their life. >> talk about different infections. but i tell people read at a different level. so you read it seriously. with bio terrorism and infectious agents quite frankly they're rotten military weapons just like him thank -- and anthrax the problem is if you have a pandemic weapon how can you be sure it will not kill them off?

i'm not terribly worried about that. talk about those two major cases of by a terrorism but the real by a terrorist is from australia. the country was totally overrun that killed off most of the rabbits but then killed only 50%. someone brought it back to france so we don't like kravitz although some people do. [laughter] then they got another virus but little new zealand government decided they would not bring in that

virus so that is via terrorism but that wipes out 90 percent of the rabbits. we're not in danger as a species to be wiped out as the infectious pathogens but we have got awfully good at the science of new technology infinitely better prepared and able to diagnose and identify better now than we could 10 years ago. so all the viruses in south america the one that caused the outbreak use -- as some of the last year but they

don't spread by the tree roots and until that happens they changed the way they spread unless that happens so when we worked out we did not make a vaccine or a drug with good control for those that were highly infectious. it is very, very closely monitored. in science undoubtedly we would have had a global pandemic. there are different types of pandemic like the flu that is obvious also aids back in

the 1920's and '30's when somebody probably cut his hand while butchering a chip and it was very, very slow but been detected in 1991 than we know how it has progressed it is a continuing pandemic situation. its still killed large numbers of people each year including half a million kids. then pandemic is that fall under the radar. over the last year we had the neural virus that makes everyone six on the cruise ship laying is that it does not kill people although it

is very infectious said is a beneath the radar pandemic. you have heard enough of me. think i should stop and ask me some questions and if i am gonna need to revise it. thank you. [applause] see speeeleven wants you to come up to the microphone. if people just come up just ask any question that you want. >> one of the nice things about science is you communicate very well and that is very important. >> is not as a to get the

message across. >> who have mostly been talking about to be identified in the spread but pandemic after a while ago way. what are the mechanisms by which they do? otherwise acustar did to say we would be wiped out. what is the general idea? >> if you think of the rapid fire rest it is completely up to nature we select those that can survive so what would have happened we would have selected a species to survive. so really devastated the pacific islands it would be

great and i don't think we have the materials but if we had the genetic composition and then with influenza large people get infected so rethought let the 1980's influence of divers had gone away actually just became more mild and less damaging. but we did not isolate. that wasn't isolated until 1931 or 32. again from those working at the rockefeller lab in princeton. he was in an iowa farm boy. but then in 1933 the way they isolated is they try to

isolate influenza and in summer with the big medical research institute they said this anybody need ferrets? we have a few extra ferrets. they said we will take some so they dropped it from there sneezing colleagues in the ferrets would sneeze. then one guy was visiting in end he was shouting the fair it sneezed in the various means. [laughter] you better hope this neece is at least once but not only did they sneeze but they transmitted the virus back to the one researcher.

they were all looted but of think the ferret's got much attention after that. but with that in rare still going through that. i talk so much nobody has any questions? >> and observation i think the next nobel prize might be storytelling. [laughter] >> you will not be for literature. [laughter] one of the great tragedies is the part myth that we all came back to stockholm for

the 100th anniversary of the nobel prize in 2001 and the irish sought the help because i was the only other guy with the irish name. he is a wonderful man and he died very suddenly. >> that my question is that with the effects of climate change that is very obvious obvious, does that change the way the science prioritizes things? reduce the a big shift in the possibility that makes it ocher in correlation with climate change? >> is a bit of a wash. we don't know because i think yogi berra said it is a myth if it is about the future. something like that.

for instance we expect them to move further from the equator so rethink japanese encephalitis is hovering above australia but the reason we see these infections is we invade more and more into these habitats. and of course, we may get past the point we did have a controlled mosquito there are various other scientific programs also an organism that makes the mosquitos sterile. lot of research going on.

but i am not sure climate changes of matter. the population density i'm not sure about climate change. i think really to human beings when we get he stressed that does not have much air-conditioning we already see contamination of the offer in low-lying countries like bangladesh. in the effects on agricultural production with increased drought but a lot of this is hard so it will affect us as human beings but not necessarily by infectious disease. >> i wonder what you feel the role of social media will be in terms of disease

control? to stop by simply talking to those 500 chiefs what do you think? >> the sulfone has become enormously important in africa and i think you know, about that because everybody king get a cell phone. if you go to the middle east driving north to here is a bedouin on his campbell talking and his cell phone. in sales of satellite tv so a rethink of the cultures we're not incorporating that in our thinking. a lot of information gets around very, very quickly a and can go back the other way.

social media is said to ways ward with the decline of newspapers that has happened because of what might be losing investigative reporters. and the great stuff on the web has the craziest thing on earth if you look at vaccination you'll find the craziest of you can imagine. we wiped out to viruses from the planet. smallpox finished in the '80s and more recently we have eliminated a veterinary disease by clever vaccination strategy is. who, went to the agricultural organization. the next one is another

veterinary disease. they're very closely related to measles. they diverge about 1,000 years back and that is not very long considering 10,000 years come across the dizzily 1,000 year divergence. but people will not vaccinate their children but there tends to be vocal -- focal groups otherwise you get pretty good coverage but you can see why it is difficult if you ask a young mother who was never seen measles or a polio or months to take a perfectly normal child to the doctor to be

injected in maybe grumpy for a couple of days. the social media means if that child develops anything over the next six months it is a very difficult situation. so we could eliminate these with a very strong passion. also a very good biologist who wrote a nice and honest book to lay out all the evidence saying there is no correlation but a tremendous amount of work has been done. so it is a very weird situation. putting the fluoride in

water so here you have a liberal educated community subway's backing that. [laughter] >> how do you feel about the flu shot? >> i will take as many as i can get. [laughter] for the flu vaccine is not the greatest there is a lot of debate. we have much better vaccines that we have a situation that children must be with measles or mom's or rubella and that is important. but even the pediatricians have concerns particularly in europe there is a flu vaccine which may have been

involved in some neurological issues so even peter shins are wondering. i think we have some in the audience but many now believe we should go to the live vaccine it is not dangerous and not be injecting them with a lot of virus material. a situation in australia the year before last with the flu vaccine standard protocol until recently we have to get the mound very quickly so we rely on earlier test that is very limited. they used the vaccine made in the completely standard way because a lot of fever in the young kids that can cause convulsions at least

one child has permanent damage so that vaccine was withdrawn very quickly but there is a debate on which should be used but we do need better flu vaccines and happens very quickly. not only that we can make them a lot quicker in the face of the pandemic. celesta mitt was six minutes but then it had gone around the planet. >> talking about vaccines what about shingles. >> i have been meaning to get that. [laughter] volume of that age. >> i have not had it. >> you can get it at the drugstore?

i should get a. >> can you also talk about the chicken i was in india. >> interesting. some of the viruses have wonderful names. it means he who bends over because he is in such pain chicken guna was in africa but that suddenly only in humans and mosquitos also a star is to spread now malaysia, singapore, just off the estonian coast was too similar viruses in australia. you can get a very nasty chronic arthritic condition

people rarely die but it is very unpleasant but chicken guna people achene to make a vaccine. with species, like this virus, often they will sit in the botanical garden for years as a plant species then they will be everywhere. we don't know why. just like chicken guna has spread. others we are certain it was brought from africa in to america with the flagship also another one that has spread enormously since the second world war in those countries may be only about 40 countries now it is in most countries but how did they get around the world? one possibility is infected

travelers and then bid to buy a mosquito may be that is how west nile came to the united states. the virus, a discarded motor tires are disasters because they're filled with water then the mosquitos breed when tired manufacturers is very sensitive on that. so there has been in industry of scrap computers being sent to africa to be dismantled there is an industry to sell the scrap tire around the world we think maybe that is how they got around to have water in the scandal are vague. -- mosquito larva.

>> can you speak to the effects of global to his rotation like airplanes? >> they get to influenza around the world very quickly. fitted in interesting question because in the past we had all of these quarantine stations and we have none of them now. they are all gone. ellis island and so forth. so what happens if someone on the plane looks horrible and they are worried it will transmit to other people on the plane? they want to confine them so how do they do that? so they use the aircraft had having your to bring in portable toilets to confine people in a more sterile space they in the airport.

the chinese built very rapidly coming within one week separate tented hospitals and confined them in their. it is a rapid reaction of very important if you feel very sick on the plane to let people know because if there is a contagion and people spread fear that could be a real problem. it is an issue. we still don't understand one person took to toronto and a girl had a shopping trip ticket to singapore in

was not recognized initially sell people were put in critical care facilities in singapore has good medicine but they traced the initial infection then you could see 15 others. so some of these could spread to what it is going on. it is a great breakthrough once you understand you can put in place an appropriate measure. stannic i think we have time for one more question. >> we went to bangkok last january for the infectious disease conference my son funded the added delta

surveillance network but as a layperson to take away that i got after listening for one week is that that jersey's surveillance network has been instrumental tuesday about early the development of viruses that can help. can you comment on that that there are five or six around the world and is it correct they will play a vital wall in early catching viruses before they develop the nutation? >> it is tremendously important. also most of the influence the strains come out of asia and now china is doing vastly better. there were four centers around the world but to rapid diagnostics.

tokyo and amanda and now beijing as well. but what is a great events it is technological training but that influence a network going for a long time where this interaction is not concealing anything is tremendously important. >> thank you very much. [applause]

[inaudible conversations] >> warren would stage and in the middle hiller one dash year. this is a perfect backdrop for the campaign. not only did it show the human side cover the fact that they did not live in the mansion but a very normal house but most of the folks coming to see him speak, florence was a part of this message. she was a very visible part of this campaign and always near him on the front porch and gave interviews herself to women's magazines. she alternated between and being a savvy politician to being the home buddy, the wife, the caretaker of a candidate. she knew about politics worked.

>> i do very pleased to present to this audience of course, of five remarkable lives instead of writing letters it is more difficult to write a short been a long one. my booker short -- is short but tries to capture the sights, sounds, smells of 1937 and 1938 through the eyes of five women. caught up in court -- extraordinary circumstances. which were friends and colleagues at the hoover institution, a library and archives, hoover press' without which the book cannot be written there are too many here to sink them

individually so i've liked to thank you collectively. to the book itself, i have said this before but a good way to introduce a topic stalling is reported to have said the death of one person is a tragedy the death of 1 million is a statistic. those of us to study soviet russia falls into this trap. we think we can convince people of his evil by site in the millions that have died of the hundreds of thousands shocked a hint the myriad of men, women, children, who sat in his concentration camps. stalinist admirers from

today's russia it mitt that stalin may have done some bad things but if you look at it, in its totality today's dallin is one of the most admires figures in russia. my stories transport us and they tell us overwhelmingly the victims were ordinary people and confused when they had been singled out between perpetrator and victim i'd like hitler's germany the executioner became the executed telling us the wife and children of

the repressed could contaminate others and they would have to be isolated from society also. each part begins in installments office as he and the hedge funds finalize the degrees of repression as a filter down to the five families. in this presentation i leave stolid not that is free to read about when you buy the book but i'll introduce you to four of my five women. my women were not selected in any scientific fashion rather i with their hundreds more than hundreds of

unpublished memoirs until i found subjects to describe with enough detail after the gulag i did not want to write a story about women behind barbed wires but wanted to get to know each family to share their tragedy with my readers.

as directed to evelyn the book entitled weddings are discretionary. feels our necessary. . . . . so we wrote to four september 11

and they wrote that out of the context of the experience of all the funerals and wakes that i went to as mayor of the city of new york for police officers and firefighters and rescue workers and people who worked for the city and i never realized the importance of that lesson or the magnitude of it until after the horrible events of september 11. >> rosa parks and martin luther king jr. and inspired me to find a way. i was so inspired that in 1956 at the age of 16 with some of my brothers and sisters and cousins we went down to the public library in the little town of sure alabama trying to get a library cards trying to check out some books and we were told