of -- i'll stop rambling. >> meet us at the table. we'll answer anymore questions so you to share -- [inaudible] the information. it's believed the book table is in the back somewhere? >> yep. >> register at the front for your purchase copy of the book. let hear one more time for the contributors this evening. [applause] >> if you have any questions or like any contributors to sign a copy of the book they'll be at the signing table against the wall here. thank you for coming out this evening. [applause] [inaudible conversations] you're watching booktv

nonfiction authors and books every weekend on c-span2. here is a a lock at books being published this week.

>> host: introduce you to somebody on the bus with us. this is the u.s. poet. what is it a u.s. poet lawyer rate? what do they do? >> guest: the job is simple.

bring poetry to a wider audience across the country. the only official duties i have are to open the literary season at the library of congress in the fall by giving a reading. a closing lecture in may to end the literary season, and to choose the two poets or the one poet in some years, who is to receive the foip. and introduce that poet for reading at the library. it >> host: do you gate salary? >> guest: there is a siphon that comes with it. it's not funded by the american public. i think there's an endowment that does that. it >> host: what is the scholarship that you refer to? >> guest: the fellowship. it just recognizes an american poet who is doing extraordinary work. >> host: how do you become the u.s. poet? are you a poet? >> guest: well, you have to be a poet first. [laughter] so if you're thinking about it. start writing some poems. but they are chosen by dr. james billington library of congress.

he's given the duty by congress. congress enacted the law that made or -- i suppose maybe it's not law. but the position in 1986. it used to be the consult faint in protoi are for many years. in 1986 it changed to the different title. >> host: what is your position with the state of mississippi? >> guest: i'm the poet of the state of mississippi. >> host: who chooses that and >> guest: the outgoing governor selected my. >> host: is it a term position? >> guest: it is. in mississippi it used to be a lifetime position. with my term, the previous poet died and they decided to make it a termed position. and is now four years in mississippi. >> host: question characterize authors like taylor branch as a novelist or historian. can you characterize poets the

same way? >> guest: well, there are plenty of poets who write in other areas. you might also call me a non-fiction writer. i have a book of non-fiction. but i'm thinking about something my southern predecessor said historical sense shouldn't be seen as contract i are. if poetry is a littlend that we make. history is the big myth that we live. in our living constantly remaining. so for me that suggests that there are lot of links between the different. even though we may call someone a poet or a novelist. i feel that i'm someone who for whom the historical sense always animates the work that i do. >> host: where did grow up? >> guest: mississippi and georgia. >> host: why and when did you

start writing poetry? >> guest: i wrote poems pretty early on. my father might say even sooner than i will tell you, but when i was in the third grade, my earliest memory of writing poems happened then. i was writing in a class and i had a teacher who with the librarian in my school found a little collection of the poems i written and put them in the school library. ghois how many collections have you published? >> guest: four collections of poetry. >> host: they all came out in 2012 is >> guest: that's right. >> are they related moments? go they happen to be your latest poems? >> guest: moi poems are related in that way. i tend to work on a kind of project. they all circle around particular historical question. i pose for myself. they very connected. i think in about robert frost's

idea about the 25th poem. even though there's a whole collection of individual poems, the book itself becomes the 25th poem. the whole. the unified whole of all the things. >> host: what is the theme? >> guest: well, it's -- my father is poet. it's a book dedicated to my father. i think it in many ways as an l intimate conversation held in public place between me and my father. it's about the history of ideas of racial difference across time and space. things i think we still contend with many n our discourse in everyday lives. my interracial family. >> host: pulitzer prize family? >> guest: -- you're in 2007 you won the pulitzer. >> yes. >> host: how was poetry taught across schools? is it still taught in schools?

>> guest: well with, you know, i don't know. i don't know how much students are getting in school. if i teach a freshman seminar at emery university. my students have verying degrees -- varying degrees of experience of poetry from their high school. some took creative writing as well as the study of poetry of literature in their classes. some haven't had much at all. i think it does vary. depending on what school you go to. >> host: you are a memoir coming out. >> guest: i have one i'm writing. >> host: and? [laughter] >> guest: i have one i'm writing. [laughter] thank you for reminding me. [laughter] the u.s.a. poet -- thank you for joining us at the national book festival on the c-span bus.

i tasted a bit of racial segregation and racial discrimination and i didn't like it. ask my mother, my father, my grandparents, my grandparents. i said why? they said that's the way it is. don't get in trouble! don't get in the way. but in is the 55, i was in the tenth grade, 15 years old, i heard of rosa parks. i heard the voice of martin luther king, jr. on the radio. and the words of dr. king inspired me to find a way to get in the way. in 1956, my brothers and sisters and some of my first cousins we went down to the public library in a little town in alabama trying to get library cards. trying to check some books out. and we were told by the librarian that the libraries

were for white only and not for colors. but on july 5th, 1998, i went back to the library in alabama for a book signing of my book and hundreds of blacks and whites showed up. and they gave me a library card. [applause] ..

me have the unimpeded view. think you as always for your interest and also to the heritage tradition for hosting me so i can talk about issues that i talk about in the privacy of might of this note can share with the broader audience.

but we'll talk about the extra know then the internal but the question of russia in where it is heading logically in geopolitically and demographically with something i spent a lot of time looking at professionally and personally that i am the child the culture in my blood in the language in my head so i spent quite a bit of time in russia so it allows you to get a different sense. i am struck historically decades or in recent years we look at rus russia very large on the world stage. then you understand why we do that.

said amir putin has had quite a strong arm but actually that is of the wrong word that we are more than willing to except a deal while with the military action against syria and by the way it is very useful for the obama administration because it enshrines the syrian regime. that they may no longer be in power before it is not a question now because we need him in power to provide access to chemical weapons. not only that but for the russians the ancillary benefits accrue because since 1971 the home port for the mediterranean flotilla

so preserving the stability is huge for the russian federation but the benefits still remain to be seen. from damascus ec president putin jet off to tehran where he talks about russian cooperation and the potential reactivation of the sale of the nuclear missiles to the iranian regime something that was tabled in moscow. so not a great progress but all of this is symptomatic of something that we sense when we look at u.s. foreign policy in the middle east is not very strategic in not very assertive there has been in a effort of the strategic advantage so it

projects a country on the march but if you look at what is happening within russia itself it is fairly clear that perception is wrong. internally it is a transformation that when it sets in in every bit as big as the collapse of the soviet union. this of people is the product of three trends that will leverage now been contradictory in a very dramatic way. russia is dying demographically speaking. if you are not a demographer good for you. [laughter] not exciting profession but

2.one is the magic number during the life span of a woman during the fertility life span she shed create one child to replace herself in one for her husband and another for natural disasters and a population that sits at the replenishment rate it remain stable over time the united states is pretty much their. we could talk about the driver's of the population but a bunch of countries certainly in europe are well below replenishment rates and russia is near the bottom. according to the u.s. statistics is that 1.six and that means every generation is constructed and what this looks like in practice if you read russian statistics

that as a result of natural death in to immigration from the russian federation is constricting almost half a million people every year. vladimir putin december 2012 when he was giving one of his presidential campaign speeches talks about the fact the fact that if this is not ameliorated by 2016 the entire population 142.9 million will shrink down 25% at 107 million people. that is a massive construction of the human capital russia has currently and can access into the future. the first is that i'd like the united states never

experienced a peace dividend at the end of the cold war. was cultural and cultural infrastructure what this looks like in practice is life expectancy today is the same as madagascar are. age 60 females is 73. the same as saudi arabia. but both members are a decade and a half lower than the governments in europe in the united states. part of the reason is as a function of to the 1990's it is spending more me money on the people. that and a second reason why the demographics are taking is you see a wholesale collapse of the russian

family. soviet families stuck together not necessarily because they all liked each other we all know we have members we would be happy to export but because they have no choice in there was the extended family network kept together by political and economic circumstances. today is exactly the opposite. it has the highest divorce rates in the world. 60% interest in the first during the first decade so that means long-term families and as a result the product of long-term families is increasingly a endangered species see you have a family with one child and not four or five or six

that is needed to replenish. also a way of bint culture of abortion there that is useful to stress on a number of levels. if you are students of the cold war you know, that a bunch -- abortion was the only means of contraception and was used widespread with female health and fertility. you have seen trendlines that suggest there has been more awareness with authorities on the fact and also some investment but it is not all that much better but today in russia sent officials suggest the rate of abortion is 1.2 million annually equivalent at 300 per hour.

but if you listen to russian doctors they will tell you that that network of publicly reported abortions is the tip of the icebergs and the number could be twice that because of private clinics or off the books are not recorded. that means russians are a boarding fees equivalent of the 2 percent of the life population killing off the demographic growth in the process. on top of that what russian experts call an epidemic of hiv/aids suggest to unpack unpack, aids came to the russian federation because of the way the soviet union kayhan functionally later in historic terms but when it hit, it hit with a

vengeance. today something 1% of the russian federation is estimated to be hiv-positive and this is perpetuated and expanded by russia's own culture of druggies. it is important to stress talking about u.n. statistics but they could be said to be the most impartial for every country around the world according to the un statistics russian consumption alone accounts for more than one-fifth of heroin use worldwide and cents deductibles of a primary transfer of the hiv virus this is organically linked to the problems russia is experiencing with hiv/aids if it accounts for one-fifth or more of all heroin consumed notice the

trend line more than one-third of the injectable drug users are hiv-positive. then you understand why russian experts themselves talk about hiv/aids in the cause of the epidemic to have a very hard time to get their hands around. the fourth trend that compounds all of this that the russian population in a very real sense from the dismal conditions are forcing russians and as a result the emigration from russia right now rivals the out migration use of one century ago when the bolsheviks to power.

more than 2 million russians are estimated to have left in the last days of 1999. one at a five lives abroad and 40% pitcher in the ages of 18 in 35 are actively contemplating departure. this is catastrophic because it is a window into this thinking of the population at large these are devastating because it is a population that has lost hope in its future in no longer trust the government to be used to rid of its needs. this does not mean there are not hopeful signs. then also over the last eight months they have had the uptick of fertility. it has been positive moderately but you have that the russian government has decided to declare victory

saying the crisis is over. nonsense. if you talk to demographers over the long term they will say that these sorts of spikes our normal over a long-term trend line but all the things i talk about about, they suggest the spiral goes down word because there is no serious official effort to counteract all the symptoms the rather ec is the effort to expand things that make russians feel good. 60300 effort to to expand infrastructure that could mean anything you wanted to be. so the russian government has turned that into

military modernization. the term infrastructure when they talk about expansion of industry. that is great but this is not long-term investment of the health care system, education, social network common medical records to allow russians to rebound sustainably from the trendline. it is useful to unpacked what that decline means and why it is happening in why it is important. the second is to focus on one aspect that trend line is that it is transforming. when compared it to the trend lines laid out they don't abort as a matter of

convenience, they don't drink generally, they don't divorce or leased much less with a larger number of children per family unit and as a result while the russian population at large is declining the percentage of muslims within the russian population is expanding so the back of the envelope estimates that officials give you that muslims make up 21 million of the population but according to their own estimates by the end of the decade one out of five russians will be muslim and by the middle of the century , you will be rapidly approaching parity every other russian will be a muslim that has geopolitical implications but nonetheless russia is transforming.

united states is transforming it is not a bailout bond dash bad trend but that minority has had a glass ceiling. you have a population not well integrated into the russian state. you have seen it aid and abet the rise of a corrosive far right group that is supported by the kremlin to promote like walking together a and a trend line toward protectionism in economic terms that is simply turning a blind eye. of the results is that having been deprived of economic opportunity turf of russian policy maker that their muslim but they are not russian part of the internal abroad that we need to manage but not integrate.

because russia muslims since the trend to wine and as a result ucb increase of the russian muslim minority increase of the radicals. what i mean by this? we know that our general view of the rise of radical islam in russia begins and ends with discussion of chechnya. they have a grinding and bloody war of attrition against islamic radicals going on two decades the russian government says they had succeeded than the trend line shows the war is far from being over but increasingly that problem migrates from the periphery into the heartland for quick couple of years ago i was in the republic capital city

there is a busy through st. and literally you can stand there in the middle of the street and you can see the islamic university the state approved and state-funded and lionize institution of religious studies there is a big show going out there in 2008 to roof praise the facility and for teaching nation compliance is the moderate strain of islam that is subservient to living in harmony with the russian state as a whole. if you literally turn around something called the moscow largest radical mosque in the region paid for by saudi dollars and pakistan dollars and you have russian officials that will tell you that we have no idea how to

deal with this because it is the challenge the insurgent challenge to the status quo and it is not just peaceful. last summer to of the highest religious authorities in the republic for targeted with assassination attempts one was successful. the deputy of the entire region was killed in a car bomb. you see the growing signs of the insurgents of radical strains of islam beginning to make its way from the periphery into the russian heartland where was forced to deploy security services to quell domestic address for the first time since the fall of the soviet union.

this is something to watch in particular because the north caucasus of russia is increasingly on the radar and we're not that far away from the olympics in russia and concerned over the reid -- security of the environment yet every sign suggests in addition to it becoming a very expensive boondoggle there is a serious security concerns because it says it has contained in localized in chechnya but it is not contained but in fact, it is resilient and spreading elsewhere. that is the second trendline. the third is that in a very real sense going to sound alarmist but the chinese are coming for the russians.

i say this because one-third of russia geographically is in asia. they have the pivot long before the obamacare administration concerned about doing commerce with asian states but also territorial disputes with countries like japan or south korea but increasingly that area that cumulatively is 4 million square miles comedy enormous is baron and russians are leaving the population has declined by 20 percent over the last two decades. the reason is simple with my parents live there they were told they could urquhart not live every given permits to work in one city but not the other so the populations were stock if you wanted to

move there was a political process to go through and as a result there were people working in industries where they would not necessarily stay if given a choice. with the collapse of the restraints of peace and migration people and leaving warmer climates in greener pastures but they are leaving. as a result the territory now has a little over 25 million people that translates out six russians per square mile. so tom clancy was wrong remember in the '90s he wrote a book about the future conflict between russia and china but if you ask anybody in the russian government if this is a reality you get the answer

that i got it will never have been because when the people's liberation army comes they will not find russians. there is no people. but if there is no people there is no work force that is likened to the energy superpower the bread basket of the federation and the human investment that the chinese government makes in the region towards what the russian government has done places that are far closer to beijing and moscow in a very real sense treated as the political backwater are transforming it into the wings themselves as asian in

chinese that is a massive problem for russia because not only is not able to pick it economically it is where real territorial conflict can rise soon so this is a territory that the russian government and the government of china have tumbled over. demarcated by a treaty of it typical friendship but the russian association tried to make it not have the sunset date and the chinese negotiators said we will make the treaty last 20 years siddig is 80 years from now.

why? because looking for word the chinese understood said demographic picture military different. we may want to reclaim the lost land and as a result you see a shift of the human capital already in the far east that has dire implications for russia as an energy superpower were globally and in economic powerhouse in asia. those are the three macro trendline that i talk about but the point that i make is by themselves each is the imaging deeply to the russian state with the power and political capital to turn things around but all three is catastrophic because what you see out of the government is increasingly a state that is hard pressed to deal with

even one dynamically alone three. putin state that his followers have built over the last half a dozen years is built for here and now not long term. said what he does abroad and i thank you remember that song if you have problems abroad -- a whole new go abroad think of his grandstanding not only a reflection of strength but also internal weakness. the state he has built simply has not dealt with the trend in a serious fashion because it is not wired that way. they would talk about it be managed democracy it is a

cult of personality built around putin and his close circle of followers kept in place by sweetheart contracts it is not lawlessness but that it is attracting the investment better required to turn the trendline around that is required the dismantling of that will not happen. the russian government is caught in a cul-de-sac of its own political making. but what it could mean looking into the future we're not talking about trendlines over the next couple years at what you see at of russia today ruby what

you get but they will have a poll on how russia behaves so now you can expect them to enhance the imperial impulses. we know that it still has this real sense to covet territories that were part of the soviet union stripped away as a result that vladimir putin himself talked about the collapse of the soviet union be the largest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. this ideological leanings is likely to be given a shot in the arm by the loss of land elsewhere as russia loses periphery it expands in territorial terms at least to be reinforced if not

unquenchable. in what you see sooner it is very likely with the rise of the strain of elsewhere you will see a widening of a conflict of the state that they cannot control. not one chechnya but many this sounds like the overstatement if you do not watch the emergence of the chechen conflict the maturation overtime has taken on a conflict of far larger conflict originally envisioned in the trendline the you see in the russian heartland has the potential to do so. in to the third trendline

that as fresh shad contorts internally and will press westford there will be heightened tensions with europe. that is one way to say that americans see russia at face value. so on the world stage with a geopolitical to with his relationship with iran we tended to assume russia is rising in order to make progress with a world affairs but when i say is that may not be so simple but the real challenge for the united states in 20

years 30 years cannot be for russia's strength but from their weakness and that should inform serious policy thinking about russia and our approach because we knew the reset of relations that obama has tried to do with moscow over four years is not as healthy as it could be today. we know the reset has been a failure and the white house is beginning to think about what comes next. in where russia is headed that is to figure out the policy. think deal. i will stop there. [applause] >> we will take questions please state your name and

affiliation as a courtesy to our guest and i will take the prerogative of reading what of the questions we've received of might i will change it a little bit could the u.s. effectively support positive transformation of russia without creating the perception of interference and only aggravates the feeling to target liberty issues of that country? >> that is a great question and to go on a slight ancient for a second white russia is a one cooperative of middle east policy for example, spending two 1/2 years supporting the regime is because it has see this movie before. remember one decade ago russia witnessed the revolution from elsewhere and it was testified that

then and is now that those trendlines will take hold because here is said did dirty little secret because putin is not that popular the random poll the ice hockey about in the spring and suggested that of those respondents that participated in the vote for the presidential election in russia, only 34 percent said they would vote for vladimir putin in a demographic society that is catastrophic even authoritarian which is why what you have seen has ben a deepening of of the anti-democratic is how to invest of democratic institutions are infrastructure without seen as meddling in internal affairs with the national

democratic institute were to be kicked out of the country. but that is the reason why the obama administration spends so little time taking about it because we can work on strategic nuclear reduction or counterterrorism but i think the most fruitful conversation you can have moving for word is a discussion of economic opportunity for the russian minorities because russia and the united states with a number of issues have a tremendous amount of commonality and they are wired so we can start a tactical dialogue to migrate into a larger conversation

about not using blunt force with the discrepancy of the muslim knight minority but it is not an easy conversation to have. >> i am intern here but my question is about the opposition within russia and how much of the influence they would have going into the future? >> it is a good question. the state of democratic opposition is the thing that you tend to watch sporadically as it is put on charges then released but it is not sustained attention but i would point out some

trendlines profoundly negative as slightly positive that vladimir putin understands very much because of his popularity ratings there is a problem if there is a sustained liberal opposition said he has tried to widen the conversation said he is known as the united russia that is under a series of very public black guys those that have been caught with property in the united states above a year and beyond based on the paycheck the defense minister that engage potentially based on the personal vendetta this is all tarnished united russia brand so what he has done is putin has widened to that conversation talking and acting to create the

russian national front it is of political organizations that is intended to be the umbrella to feed ideas into russia is to rehabilitate to show it is more transparent and accountable and to push it to the outskirts because if everybody is part of the national front and you are not that means you are a crackpot but there are hopeful signs this will not be the case. mayoral elections suggest this dominance of united russia is a transient a fair

in love to their own devices they will vote to elect somebody else i am not sure they want a specific person that somebody else this is something the kremlin is very cognizant it is not clear it can control or clamp down but that there are your earnings for pluralism beyond the contract created but it is not clear yet it will come to meaningful fruition. >>. >> has you know, one of the projects to revitalize russia's strength is to carve out control within the former soviet union but the idea is to allow russia to

reconstitute the market with the penetration in some way bet what do you think the juices of the success of the project that you caution about? >> it is interesting you rigid it is a hedge against china but i think it is if you look at what has happened with the strong army of the ukraine you have seen with the association agreement with the european union as a result penalized by the federation the century that eat ukrainian government was told if you choose europe don't choose my economic bloc there will be consequences like clipping down on trade as the raising of customs restrictions this is a

hedging strategy but does not alter the trajectory and among certain governments increases the push westward with the trend of realignment from moscow is not clear that russia's economy is as vibrant or dynamic as it needs to be if the deck was not stacked you this is a real problem with a bid yet that somebody may have massed in the last two weeks tide has product the equivalent of 5% of ukrainian territory this is a big deal because it suggests tied increasingly moving westward but also a challenge to russia because of it covets the ukraine which it does it's economically not just dealing but a more difficult

variable which is the intrusion of china. it is not clear if they can actually ameliorate the trends that i talk about. but over the long term this will be a difficult road. >> i am from israel. one is the short-term question about russia. in the iranian situation what you think is going on. the second question is long term that is the name of the game long term and what do

these troubling transformations going on in id russia need for china and its role? >> the iranian issue that is useful to unpack is when you think about russia it is useful to remember the government is a master to create a problem then present itself as a solution it initiated the sale of the anti-missile batteries to tehran now it is back on the table. it is a pattern because if you look at what russia is seeking that partnership is not across the board there is said very strong vocal minority that the islamic

republic is closer then even to israel within the capabilities that the gains if not careful could be directed to russia itself but the dominant line is cooperation of the ties in the fact there ray and had is the potential to exacerbate their radical islamic tendencies in the caucuses if it wants to sell you keep at bay and by good old fashioned america and if the west is bogged down to put out fires in the middle east is less likely in the zero her free to have legitimate concerns the encroachment of europe of nato into the united states which means the

rapprochement which i am skeptical but don't let 30 years of u.s. every in politics stop the. [laughter] but if you believe it is different this time you have to understand russia will use this id vintage because this paradigm if they follow way than i rand is no blonder an adversary in moves from being an asset to a liability. with regard to china over the long term this question is about internal dynamics it needs something on the order of 20 million jobs created every year to keep their rates stable why you see a massive export of capital into the russian far east so precious explosive growth despite the recession

suggests china needs to fuel the fire it as a result that looks for a new economic opportunity it is the low hanging fruit. >> i am with the heritage foundation. with that issue i suspect you have read the book the of the country that turns the ship around is georgia the patriarch was a blessing of the third child but could you tell us a state of the orthodox church? could this fixed the demographic situation? >> absolutely that is a good point something that is remarkable so he who is up

to date may be down tomorrow and then they disappear into academia for seven years then come back but what you notice is the macro trend line is the kremlin and the russian orthodox church to the point it has become if not across the board rubberstamp survey a powerful voice in support of the kremlin policy but this is not a demographic question the enshrinement of conservative ideas has translated by the church rather this translates into more babies? probably not it is not a mistake that putin has hit upon the alliance because he also serves on the trend line to understand how these things work but for him is

less of a demographic salvation and war of the allied. >> you mentioned earlier in the 1990's russia did not get the peace dividend at least in social services or infrastructure. during the same period there is a great deal of u.s. aid setting up to build a civil society. has there been any evidence the private institutions have stepped in to perform these social services? >> it is a good question id psi probably over estimated

slightly there was no peace dividend of course, the economy got better and there was some ancillary run off but per-capita ed gdp is better now says he cannot say there was no progress but that there was not sincere is serious systemic investments of the infrastructure that you talk about transparent elections in social services that is where the international community came in with a sustained investment track were also by the way in the strategic weapons the dividends from that we can talk about it but these are the two main tracks of the

u.s. interest of soviet russia. when you see the rollback of civil society a function of the kremlin sees these entities partially supported by the community as a threat so the approval that requires the political ngo that gave fighting its aid from the international community to register as a foreign agent shows to the russian government is more interested in march july 88 -- marginalizing the elements in exploiting them but they are saved as a threat.

i have not done a study how effective but they are not seen as a partner but as a challenge such as a result the knives are out to. >> how low it does rushes you lead to improving mr. putin is known as a judo expert. >> he trains with the national judo team so my childhood was completed to. [laughter] but as a funny anecdotes that being the judo black belt is different in russia then if japan's early in his presidency bid to japan

there were a lot of pictures that made their way into the russian press of him getting flip to buy eight and 11 year-old japanese girl which i know that contributed to the downturn but that did not help. [laughter] but it is a good question in here the olympics become very important to the extent that government can show i don't know if the tally on the order of billions of dollars most expensive ever there's a lot of indications there is corruption the head of the olympic committee was replaced because it was not on schedule as much of a public image problem for the russians as security but both matter. russia has to provide when the world is watching a secure environment sadly of

very heavy-handed security tactics but they have a real problem on their hands the also they have to get the economic state up and running so with the world looks it does not look like a village. >> i am the north caucasus i was at the conference of george washington university and a statistic jumped out at me. plagiarism was as high as 70%. how can you tell if the u.s. official close to me with russian officials had you know, it is not part of the fake resonate? >> this is a real problem the ed devaluating of the educational integrity is a

symptom of that decline where there is a culture of corruption reid do understand it pervades the economic sectors but it does have an impact on the ancillary sectors and the fact it is acceptable and the university taverns -- turns a blind eye chose to what is acceptable but this is why i made a mention of it why statistics are so suspect because it is hard to discern who is doing good research particularly with 70% of the resonates are padded that is when i look to the un estimates as the mean estimates because they tend to aggregate that high a and fellow. i have seen statistics that are far more bleak but this is the midline of the

estimates should tell you everything you need to know about how bad the situation really is. >> i am curious about the territorial ambitions belarus the ukraine or the balkans? >> again this is a question of the eyes being bigger than the estimate with the military capability that they will go to war with everyone but the best way to describe it is a post modern empire even though there is not actual military influence southern russian strong arm tactics to prevent said the construction seeing this like that functionally keep them in rushes orbit without

a shot being fired should be worrisome but thatcherism is the law under the territorial been injuries remain the same the more it diminishes that the more it has success abroad the more the appetite is what for other skirmishes. i am not a prognosticator but i can tell you that in those places they are watching the trend line closely and the one variable is how the impulse is strengthened by eight mathematics. if you need to experience your population there is not that many places that you can go.

>> one final question. >> what is happening with selznick -- ethnic russian? are they moving back? in what role do they play if any? >> the kremlin would like them to and as a result they have done all sorts of things that they have created hassle free assumption of russian nationality in and get a passport it increases the of virtual because they are not in the russian federation or reproducing but the trend line is profoundly negative a great example is that the tail and the kremlin trumped up the project it was

intended as the hub for technology innovation from software to biotech as the new silicon valley there's a tremendous number of russians or people of russian extraction in they reached out to of course, this was not the sum total but there are two nobel laureates that were approached to come back to russia to bring the technology to set up shop in the insert was not no. it was held no. they understand that political culture means their intellectual property is not safe for st. that they will be very capricious

how would apportions a or takes proprietary products so as a result they're happy to seek economic fortune elsewhere that is a huge drain for russia because the more the government appears to be hot style to individual and to print your ship the less ability it has to compete on the world stage. that is why you see this mass migration of russians because those with the means to do so are the key for economic alternatives. . .