thank you, mr. sherman. thank you to the panel for being here. i'm having a hard time figuring out what the united states got out of this. i mean, you know, we got the iranians got a lot. they basically got a right to enrich uraniums. we have allies that are begging us in three, two, one agreement to be able to enrich uranium. we say no allies but enemies we give them the right as a reward for doing it the wrong way. i mean, i guess i'm really having a hard time figuring out anything the united states gave besides being able, i guess for the next year to go in front of the american people and say we won something. it will only be proven wrong by history. this, to me, is like the equivalent of a police officer pulling somebody over for the dui and the person saying mr. officer, i'll be happy to

pull over. you have to let me have the key in the car and the engine running and i'm not getting out. and the officer saying that's a good deal for me. that sounds like a fair deal. i'm having a hard time with that. i also, you know, think back to what happened in north korea, and i remember the agreement that was hailed as, you know, the peace in our time of the korean nuclear agreement in north korea they were going to not have a nuclear weapon, and in fact i remember reading some of the editorial papers that basically said it was a huge victory against the war hawks and for the people that said diplomacy can never work. and a year later, north korea has nuclear weapons and that's something we're dealing with today. that, i think, as a regime that is threatening as they are are probably less than the iranians got nuclear weapons. ..

>>:the trigger on receiving stations into early icy leads to unsuccess so would you have an example or a counter example maybe police pitcher early has helped or to discuss the apparel.

>> i will talk about the sanctions question. why they greeted told of a trigger too early on sanctions. i run a group that the gauges that kind of pressure but it doesn't always work. actually this committee of congress showed they were working in the context of ivory and that the economy was going to the red so and unfortunately i believe it was between four and six months too early. i would argue that the sanctions of the rand levy were the most effective but there is no secret sanctions, diplomacy and serious foreign policy would engage with all of them but now they were just about to have the great fundamental impact. >> in essence will get the

1980 shows the investigator to punches the bad guy one last time but then he gets up. >> the road runner comes to mind. >> it sounds like what you were reading off my sheet. [laughter] but with north korea i want 2.0 how these villiers' damage credibility worldwide i was discussing iran with some intelligence analysts tuned gave my pessimistic views the and one of the canadian said the u.s. administration said they will not allow lybrand to get nuclear weapons but before i could say anything one said that is what they said about north korea. these are our friends.

>> via administration never said fallujah could never be taken over when they left. my time is expired but the last two real quick? >> with my north korean counterparts i asked what is next? they said don't worry. plutonium is our weapon. now we know what happens especially with firebrand. >> we will have you hold that since -- that thought to be fair to everyone. >> mr. pickens is recognize. >> to go back to the election that brought rinaldi into office there were six candidates.

he ran against the of policies that had isolation the policy that created sanctions and he won the election. rouhani could not have one without the supreme leader willing it. you don't get 60 percent of the vote with a runoff. he got 50 .6% of the vote that tells us either the supreme leader is trying to bamboozle the united states to believe iran is committed to reform or that the supreme leader is allowing rouhani an opportunity to negotiate a deal but the question is we don't know if it is the deal we can live

with for the international community can live with. there are three generations of nuclear proliferation in iran. the first was a glorified national science project iran had 164 centrifuge that is the machinery that spins the of uranium at supersonic speed to produce weapons-grade fuel. today i rand has 19,000 centrifuges with the multibillion-dollar atomic infrastructure to give them breakout capability that means iran can now produce weapons-grade material before we can detect it and act against it that is in fundamental conflict with the objective of the united states that iran will not

get nuclear weapons or the containment once they get it. so is the objective or prevention baby lost and in addition to 19,000 centrifuges they also constructed their first heavy water reactor for plutonium and other bomb fuel there would not be this discussion and iran was not be at the table unless we imposed sanctions that is the only thing they respond to if we take that off the table you take away the leverage assuming rouhani is sincere he ran the nuclear program for 10 years prior to his election as president the only leverage we have. remember the iran-iraq war? they were at war eight years basically a standoff. nobody won. called greedy said to call a

truce was like drinking poison from the chalice. then the united states went to iraq and did in three weeks what iran could not do in eight years is what they stopped doing? enriching uranium. we have been through this. the united states gets played by the leaders of iraq that pushes away when they do well and when they are challenged the same with i get it -- to afghanistan and iran we need to be very careful before we begin to provide relief from sanctions because the iranian economy is a mess it dropped six percentage points last year data even have the capacity to refine the wheel that they produce for so many other countries

europe stopped buying oriole in china continues to we continue but it is deeply discounted which further hurt iran. there 90 million the faster during year under the age of 30 and they are sick and tired of the repressive regimes because social media, twitter, internet, th ey see how the rest of the world is living. the tools of social media not only use for aspirational purposes but high the effectively for organizational purposes. court -- iran is but a suppression not like new york city but los angeles, a spread out but the regime is good to keep people down. think we need to be very careful. i would doubt logger soared just ask for a brief comment

>> thank you. maybe they could comment. >> high-yield. >> gentleman just a couple of quotations that bear repeating over and over 80'' if we offer the complete picture it could lead us to the un security council but not doing it would be a violation of the resolution to refer them to the security council for not implementing the resolution. the next one from when president rouhani said the geneva deal has the surrender of big powers before the great nation of fire rand and in that context it seems republicans democrats are people that don't care can see what is

happening those that genuinely support this come out of academia with some hope for a better solution not based in reality. the first question would go to mr. albright is seems you are in favor of the deal but is it about non-proliferation? is that what we try to get to it is your opinion to get us to non-proliferation as quick as you can? >> their goal is to make sure iran does not get nuclear weapons but it is the comprehensive solution. >> but agreed don't trust them and we have no reason to have our trust so the three year study recently published by the pentagon that intelligence agencies are not fully equipped to detect nuclear weapons are you familiar?

have you ever been to iran? >> no. i have not. i have studied it a lot. >> card to find. >> remember in every and the intelligence community has done very well to expose many secret sites. >> there is not a lot of margin for error so do you think that agreement can be adequately terrified? >> it is limited steps and i think many things are not included and in order to verify those there has to be their vacation in terms of the intelligence community any efforts to approve their ability is good. >> did you already say earlier this month iran has already been non responsive?

>> you asked if it can be done and i think it can be. >> everything in the world as possible? >> if iran is not cooperating that is the early test. >> but again working within the context in my mind especially with israel no margin for error. >> i have been to israel. there is plenty of room. >> you are not there now. >> obviously not. [laughter] >> ambassador wallace have we already moved from prevention? >> i hope not but it is looking that way. >> do we know how bad is measured? >> with the expertise of this panel absent countries

that one had to present fully cooperate there is no such thing as verification that works here delude yourselves in the context of our rand additional protocol not to speak for my colleagues but asset 100% cooperation and verification = that. >> so back to containment or prevention we have been told we will prevent. we will prevent. we will prevent. have we moved to containment ? >> if we made this deal 15 years ago locked in at the early stage i would say we are containing but now it looks like we are containing >> when did we get to contained in your opinion? maybe 2008, 2009.

it was a gradual process. >> if we kept the sanctions present if we got containment then if the sanctions would have continued could we get back to prevention? >> if we had this sanctions that we had now or back then i think so. now i think it is too late. >> mr. snyder? >> i want to thank the witnesses for being here today. also for what you do every did the day goes by that i am not reading from sources. said joint plan of action is an agreement fraught with danger. some are known some unknown but the point is taken the real test of these

negotiations is not the joint plan of action but the comprehensive agreement ending iran's nuclear ambitions and to roll back and dismantle the nuclear programs. consider the joint plan of action not be allowed to extend beyond the parameters we must block any and all pathways not just plutonium with the iranian rearrangement long dash uranium enrichment but with those the comprehensive deal can only be reached over the uncertainty of the military capability are addressed and that is crucial. mr. albright you wrapped up your written testimony and adequate comprehensive

solution depends of the united states and its allies making clear what is required this is a pivotal moment. as we talk about passing a resolution in the house within nuclear prevention act, i am worried if we're not quite fair the question will be don't do more sanctions now because we are close i am worried if we're almost there but not quite it will be we must wait now and i of further worried as we sit here today if we can clearly in transparently indicate the sanctions that will follow the orders of magnitude back in november

makes it easier to stay on the path to end the nuclear ambitions. or congress passes a resolution that says this is what we intend to do to end a comprehensive solution solution, why is that not a good strategy? >> i think it is it is important to lay all the criteria of the minimum conditions need to me they doubt it would be very useful and certainly clarify fame's to iran to make sure the of ministration understands what those are because in the heat of the moment i think congress has

an important role to hope it will work out today out basic conditions the senate started that in the recent legislation introduced. i hope it is done because iran is doing its it is doing it publicly. >> remember what we talk about that we will not do business with you and close our pocketbook. we are not invading them just to say we don't like the policy we will close the pocketbook somehow that is turned into warmongering. i don't know about you but if somebody does something i don't like i don't want to do business with them we should not do business with iran. is as a controversial? we cannot allow them to

enter the state to say we are more -- were wandering because we don't want to open the pocketbook. >> i agree but in a different way. it is important to say the clear-cut message because no one will be dismantled while building the reactor. but having said that, . >> i will interrupt you yet again i am disciplined with the time because we will be voting. now to my florida colleague. >> i appreciate your last comment when people say moving toward with the sanctions says stat

tantamount to is not susceptible the president said he thought the chances of the deals exceeding was 5050 i was alarmed by that here is the guy who was supposed to believe in what they're doing and still thinks it is a coin toss but to understand the nature of this regime we bay never be able to have an agreement that works but why would you go easy? this seems to apply more pressure to show them we're serious maybe they could reevaluate if it is in their interest. it was benjamin earlier but these military sites but we would be able to monitor what goes on there. >> you are right accent cooperation i would give my time to all lee because he was cut off a couple times

but talking about the bipartisan committee have said what they should be no i respectfully implore you all to say what is your redlined on heavy water reactor and enrichment itt was about to refer to that but i had the privilege to testify before you all many times but just to go on the record with the president to what is your redline by thank you to do that now you need to ask all these. >> it is also about the international community to have the chinese fully behind it without them the sanctions call. >> so in terms of what our

bread lines are is seems the united nations always said i really could not gingrich now it says it tea and so i think the rare blind for congress should be bill in richmond that should be the only way to have a somewhat degree of certainty to have something prevent from happening but what is odd is nobody is talking about terrorism in i rantoul and i worry they are ave been state-sponsored terrorism going back to the embassy over to beirut, our service members in iraq. how is it we act like that terrorism aspect does not

exist? it seems to be a short coming on this agreement. >> i have worked on many agreements. the area is roped off that is the tradition with the does not mean that if what is unsettled in congress will have to face that condition. the administration the eventually will have to answer how it will deal with that but traditionally i don't want to say done in isolation but as they cut out is up to oversight to decide if that is enough. >> i just wonder if that model is applicable to a regime like this a baby if

those other nuclear powers if we had negotiations with countries like north korea that ended up backfiring so i appreciate that i have concerns. what would you recommend? this is the cat's out of the banks of what should we do if somebody is concerned with this regime? uc we cannot provide that? what should our response the? >> so what is down the road? we had a string of failures pakistan, north korea, we look at saudi arabia, even turkey shows an interest. >> thank you. seven fet for holding this hearing. i am usually optimistic but

i am not at all as i continue to think this interim deal was a terrible mistake i hope that i am wrong by taking was a mistake i think the notion this is a tidy the easing of the sanction is wrong and take it is the opposite the easing of the section will allow their economy to blossom it is a terrible mistake in tough to put the genie back in the bottle in one thing i am fearful of six months will turn into bloodier than ask for more time than it will slide more and more problematic the all we have to do is listen to the radiance themselves and what they said the leaders said they have no intention to come into compliance with

international obligations i don't think they have any intention but to read the transcript quickly the post as cnn. >> i ran will absolutely retain its enrichment. >> it is our national pride nuclear technology is indigenous recently we've managed to secure very considerable prowess with regard to the centrifuge we will let except any limitation. >> so there will be no destruction of centrifuge? >> no. not at all for i think they have made it very clear interestingly they say they asked later if it is for nuclear weapons? >> no. of course, not for a

religious point of view of the great an eminent leader announces the state of fabrication it is forbidden it should tell you we don't want to build the ball but everything they have done is to build the bomb does anyone believe what they have been doing so far is for peaceful purposes? anyone? nobody? >> can i add one thing because that interview was very important rouhani also said he wants 20,000 megawatts of nuclear power for iran to provide the fuel i did some quick math that is to a million centrifuges not 90,000 so

that issue an idea. >> i appreciate that. we eased up on sanctions right when they were starting to work we should have put the real question to you want an economy or a nuclear weapons program? ty ending down was the right way to go now easing up will be the opposite and so much harder to get the ninth back on track. i know you do this every day ambassador. >> i have a quick start this shows the oil production happening now on a daily basis and presumably going up the green in nine shows were it would go down as a main trending out the next

time the administration says it is only $67 billion tasks of the question $27 billion just with the oil sales although not even the auto sector this is a powerful indication what it is about. >> anyone else? it is not the $6 billion but the economy has confidence that is the problem here that the world had confidence they've would be lifted now we will be very hard to impose sanctions. >> maybe i never optimist but to send a signal that the sanctions will be fully enforced and strengthened. >> eight you very much.

i will be the disciplinary and cutting it down to four minutes. i apologize civic can you cut it down on the next person? [laughter] >> day remember november 4, 1979? the day that they took hostages at our embassy. they held them 444 days. that will be the 35th anniversary of the hostage taking they have been exporting terrorism 35 years what it is the u.s. getting for this? what do we get out of this we are told we are warmongers because we want to strengthen those sanctions to make them come

to the table and they are about to do that. to you think 35 years is a long time? >> is the easiest. >> is 444 days a long time? is. do you agree with the comments the first three quarters of this game do you agree? >> he is knotted bidding to nothing -- admitted to nothing. [laughter] we have not taken their hostages it is not by violence if we make them toe the line then we cannot be accused of being violent or

zero crescive by their own words they want to wipe american in israel of the face of the map have we threaten to wipe them off the face of the back? to have any family living in israel now? mr. wallace you said when a to% cooperation is needed should we give them 444 days? >> i am very skeptical. >> he said we should lay out minimum conditions earlier. i cannot pronounce your ninth name your not having a good track record on a red line would you permit

military actions? >> no. it has been articulated by president obama to be prevented from a nuclear weapon. >> they know how serious we are still make the threats of military strikes has to be credible and it has to reestablish that credibility >> we don't have a lot of credibility. >> we didn't have a lot of vested interest. >> to follow-up we don't want to come back in 12 months to say we were almost there is no more sessions. to any of you think iran will be serious or will we have four bombs over 12

months would you want to live in israel right now? >> i employed. >> we will miss you. [laughter] would you live over there? >> we are done. you had the full five minutes. >> take you for bringing this panel this is a very complicated issue but i think we all agree iran should not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons but you think they already have one. you think they should add has been about but it is too late the rest of you think they don't have a nuclear weapon or are not sure. >> but they have the

capability within two or three months to break out. >> i think everybody agrees the interim agreement should not be the long term agreement. >> absolutely. >> but her logic tells me with a give-and-take situation dave would eventually blocked all sanctions lifted? >> they already have that. it is far greater than what meets the eye of their economy is coming back very strongly to lift other sanctions but we have to send a message that more sanctions are coming to stop that growth that is the key thing this committee can participate in. >> do they expect further relief? we applauded expect them to go further to give up something further in the interim agreement to get

further relief. >> the current agreement says when we finally get done there will not be any restrictions at all and treated like any other non-nuclear party that means they are scot-free at that point. >> not exactly i would expect embargo what military it again even if this work as outlined by a deal that is extremely restrictive of the conditions dealing with concerns their past weapon the station in for structure is under verification they have show cooperation. when the sanctions would come off they would have had to reach many conditions so is not at all like the interim deal. >> do you advocate any type of military action?

>> no. it would take a full-scale war i don't think the u.s. is any such position that is why there is nothing we can do if we could take military actions it would not happen for a long. >> is easier to be the monday morning quarterback but it is what is. would you recommend we do next given the situation? >> six months of the adoption of this country should make clear they will face the most robust sanctions if history going down to nearly zero the auto industry could not vote should the economy will not exist that is the message to said for them to dial back the nuclear program that is the requirement for the final deal.

>> i don't believe the sanctions will be nearly that effective. the russians already said they will borderers with id they have options the indians and the chinese will help them by about optimistic. >> it is important to articulate what it would look like. >> faq. -- thank you. >> embassador wallace i appreciate what you said about sanctions. i believe in them to but my background i was in military we always have the nato scenarios the threat was

always the soviet union for nuclear war. after the wall came down now it has changed completely with what is going on with north korea and iran. it your opinion how close i think we all agreed they will get the bomb. would they use it? or is it just a threat? >> one of the greatest dangers of is the incredible sectarian section with the nuclear arms race in the region will take the most polished tile region to make it more nuclear paula title. if it were me as a peter of one of those countries the

ayatollah and others have said they would use these weapons before you should take them at their word. >> their reaction of other countries to go with that scenario of the nuclear bomb, a saudi arabia, iraq states persia, iranian the animosity between them. do you foresee the other countries to do exactly what iran did just because of what happened? and the suggestions which countries would acquire the bob? >> it is clear other regions play along bill sectarian lines saudi arabia.

united arab emirates emirates, turkey, egypt. >> as many as six? >> all of them. >> does the panel share that opinion. >> i don't think it is quite so high but i would point out with north korea the problem is brodeur the of the middle east. >> and with that nuclear attack from a mathematical standpoint that is very scary there would be some kind of defect one that was limited during the cold war. >> frankly i am already concerned about pakistan. it looks at various points it may break into some

islamist sectarian fighting and who knows who would end up it shows why it is so important to prevent iran from getting nuclear weapons >> i agree. trust and verify it shows how naive we are in the consequences are eager of this. i hope this body here it seems to be one of the few who addresses this will continue to fight for that action. >> boats have started we have two more members who will ask questions. i did not cut anybody off. >> my colleague just referred to david kay -- naivety to support the interim agreement supported

by a number of the players trying to get iran might be wisdom. we don't know yet. were you involved at i e -- i ae8 or at the those experiences with iran? >> yes indeed visiting a number of times 20 or 30 times. >> is your impression that iran is helping it to look at nuclear weapons in the interim agreement such as the one successfully agreement is a stall tactic until they reach their ultimate goal? >> i think there is one war scenario that not just with

this safeguard obligation but may not be in the spirit for that community to handle. >> were you surprised based on your knowledge you experience they agreed to the interim agreement? >> no. i was not surprised because i have seen them following this deal and agreed on something. but now we need to break the pattern. >> ambassador wallace you talk about the complete shutdown of their economy but certainly it has hurt i am old enough to remember sanctions with those with a

spotty record. sometimes they work well sometimes they don't. it is not clear to me it is to a foreign policy but they are a tool aaron darr looks like it has had a desired effect. i assume with the best of intentions we take the foot off the pedal to ease back on sanctions and that would be a counter productive development lento pc their performance and willingness to finalize agreement. >> i think that is right above my concern is not just the foot off the gas but the economy is flourishing we measure their currency, stock market, but

it is booby it no real rollback was for the economic boom to the economy and my concern is we could certainly get the oil dash and if you hundred thousand barrels a and we should try. >> but until recently all reports i saw were they were having trouble moving their oil on the international market. >> favor at 161,000 barrels per day now it is 1.2 million barrels entire. >> but is that because of the car about its with the agreement? >> if it is if capt. plays their production of oil sale would go 334,000 barrels right now it is a trajectory 1.2 plus that was hidden in

anticipation and it be but a huge economic windfall. >> big deal. as an ex senate staffer. >> not something i bring attention to. >> inside joke. [laughter] >> via to wrap it up. >> we will get to its. says that last conversation if iran will take a back up but mr. wallace pointed out they have an economy doing well there is more incentive but can we get more time that is the concern is the sense that i will look back frankly we did not get anything from the us long

dash this it was that they have anb fact. i want to get more technical. the three basic steps needed to produce a nuclear weapon. vision quality, warhead and produce a means to deliver the weapon. so what about its delivery that they did what type of mechanism is needed to target israel or the u.s.? >> the ballistic missile capability is robust but do they have the ability to put a warhead with that missile if they could do that? eventually they could spend it but i don't think we have nothing. not to get into a debate i

am sure you did last week but if we could get something. >> no. congress was stopped of freeze is worth something here and there were benefits to the deal. we could argue the value in terms of sanctions and we're all worried about the sanctions slipping board in the administration intended. >> no. i am worried about the nuclear iran. i will happily concede our points but we are looking to this then let's look at the overall pattern if you have an opinion that works i have an opinion that doesn't that the nuclear capability i am concerned about from the of projection and use to provide a warhead that could be provide against israel.

that is my question but if targeted what deterrent if any does israel have? >> it is in a bad situation that if they have sufficient yield so for israel truly it is as substantial threat and would argue we have to work harder to keep iran from getting nuclear weapons. >> it is not just a threat to them but to us we have assets in the region we cannot overlook. the think about israel and other members worked very hard with the partnership but we have to look at we cannot just neglect ourselves. i served in iraq we have military people there. >> you are right you served in iraq and most of that is the result of radian

meddling. one big absence was there graham's role in syria. many if not a vast majority of casualty's are all correct as a result of radium are just. we have not even touched of that par i don't take we have even mentioned cirio born time. >> i think that is an issue that needs to be discussed with the money that they have. >> thank you. now the florida contingent really is the best. [laughter] >> i appreciate your patience. mr. jones you said ipo iran will get nuclear weapons that is something i have talked about before of the panel as we had ambassador bolted here he said we cannot allow that the sanctions have been going on

since 1979 at different levels. starting off mild breezing big accounts that now to prevent oil from being sold since 1879 paillette from what i am hearing within one year if i interested this they will have five or six nuclear weapons despite our sanctions. i know they are well intended but they don't seem to have worked. what else can we do? we need to work together i assume with our allies to prevent iran from getting a nuclear weapon. number one, did you feel they will have the weapon regardless? >> regardless but not necessarily in the near term but think of pakistan and that developed in these in the late '80s but not intel

1998 that they tested. i think washington tends to be too myopic of the material. also with the sanctions sanctions, they have certainly hurt iran but it has not stopped but it shows how determined the iranians are to move forward and not give up. >> watch over the last 25 for 30 years the cat and mouse they are building, and know they are not if we prove they are then uc fu subterfuges to over 19,000. how do we prevent this? what is your idea to prevent them from getting a nuclear weapon? how do you do that? >> what the priority is now

is to make sure if it will except similar limitations it except verification requirements to allow an adequate job to be done so detection is guaranteed and time for a response. that is what needs to be done and a clock ticking it cannot be extended. >> ticking since 1979 working to prevent that but you said there are four or five bombs possibly to have that capacity within one year. we can watch them for another six months or six years but they will get one. i would like to focus what do we do looking for word how do we deal with it? >> we don't have to worry as

much now because of the joint plan of action. >> the earlier you said it would be about one year they would have four or five. >> it was a theoretical question. but the joint plan of action has bought as title page they will try in the next six months if it is extended or one year. that is in the vantage. >> looking back retrospectively how could we have handled this differently going forward? other the of sanctions? i think diplomacy is the big thing and prepare pakistan develop to bob's, bob's, india, north korea. we need to have a different policy in place when they do get what and how do we handle that? >> the focus needs to be

somewhere else with the military. eppley paul effort there of the it is a chain to improve the strength to improve one ring but the rest is not strong so find what was there what was going on with the will to use capabilities -- multi use capability. >> i agree. will they come clean or provide the information to convince people that is the case. that should be tested quickly. >> i appreciate your time. >> i finally let you finish a an answer. [laughter]

8q so much. excellent testaverde they queue to the members for waterfall questions they queued to the press corps covering this. we are adjourned. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations]