governments or countries don't have friends. they have interests. we will support the government and we will do it because it suits our policy. it helps us. we want to continue. ..

v. iraq ease i think one that as well. they don't like iran. maybe they would like to move in and help clean some of this up but i don't think that works for either side and i think they want to see if they are to help balance it. we will remind the government that sanctions on iran is still not allowed. although that 29 billion is like kleenex. it's nothing. but nevertheless the policy on serious supporting asad is not good. as we have the hydrocarbon law between baghdad and kurdistan this will move to maybe the next level over the territories, whatever. i think that is an important thing to do. but we cannot tell them what to do. we cannot have a favorite

candidate and we cannot push for that. he publicly is not doing that either. although privately i think that we have all learned he has mentioned to people that he would like to see an alternative working on that he was told by an official. i pulled but i don't know if it is true or not. i would also remind them that we support the territorial and political integrity of the united iraq. this is not the time to start waving the flag. we are going to do what you don't want to do. those are areas where we can and should be speaking our mind and saying what we stand for. what could go wrong? i think the war gets worse.

there is no sign of better but if there is a serious defeat of the forces come if not only are they operating in the areas they are around baghdad and they've blocked major roads. if that cannot be stopped, turned around, and if they cannot be defeated i won't even say even a native one would hope, then the government in baghdad whoever it is has a really bad problem. i would also say what do you mean you're not going to vote? remember 2005 you didn't participate in the constitution, you didn't vote for the first parliament and guess what, you were not there. you were not at the table and you were not heard. not a good idea thank you very

much. >> thank you to the panelists. i will correct a few questions to each of you individually. the person i don't address is welcome to chime in after the person has addressed answers. very quickly for the audience the national unity government everyone is included in gets a piece. everyone has a ministry and the majority government there is people in the government and those that are out. as i've told people, iraq's national unity government for us to picture something akin to the tea party and order people having to work three cabinet departments in the united states in our government picture what

that would look like and how the government might work. that is what the national unity government brings you. you mentioned the very real possibility of the sectarian majority government probably to have been pushing the third out. do you see any possibility for an inclusive majority government giving that we have multiple parties now running with each, could you see the party that gets the preponderance of vote finding them to be a partner and then pulling in separately. >> that is a great question. the door is open and you can make deals in different directions.

iraq does need a political opposition because it hasn't had a political opposition sends 2003. the risk taking that approach is you won't necessarily have a political opposition will have a sectarian opposition so even if one scenario is that the minister would get the majority of the seat and he's able to work with the deputy paymaster and his group because at this point all of the groups are aligned with other groups and that might look across the government and across the sectarian political majority government. i am not certain that it will be

fueled this way by the other iraq ease in the political groups or the other institutions because they have performed better than the other groups and it will be risky to disenfranchise based on the political deals. if it does happen and they are not to be leaving the representatives they have to be part of a discussion and find a way to convince maybe we are not a part of the government this time, but we -- that is based on our agreement that there are other ways in which we can fulfill because the paymaster has always been able to find allies to work with in the province.

but the representatives are not necessarily strongly supported. of course the risky scenario will be completely sectarian government. they are pushing away. so it will depend on the results. that is a great deal of the shape. >> very good. i do too for the record. at the very end you said that they are breaking up, not going to happen get every six months we have a map of the stand. give us a brief version of why

not. >> there are a lot of people who talk about 1916 and now with the opportunity to write history and in fact the ethnic groups and religious groups to have their own territory. i don't think that is what this game is all about. the sunni arabs talk a lot about all they want and that they are marginalized and some might even talk about we look to our turkish and sunni brothers and a lot of the tribes are sunni and bigger in saudi arabia and iraq and syria and jordan. and one hears rumors from time

to time that they are plotting against it by those tribes and leaders who were very much involved in supporting the insurgencies in 2006 and 2007. in other words the ones that supported the al qaeda groups and then decided that it wasn't in their interest and fought against them and they are now back fighting with or supporting al qaeda. i may be plotting. i have trouble believing that would again much credibility among anybody else. in my own view it is about leverage but if you want to have leverage and you were a minority you have to have some kind of power. you can do something to either harm the state. you would have some kind of a weapon in the figure so you better be paid attention to.

there have been at least arguing going on between the government and the sunni leaders. i don't know what happened. maybe somebody else does. but i think still mostly it is about leverage but you have to be able to bargain for the position of strength which the sunnis do not have but i think that is still supporting iraq and i think that the nationalism is strong among the arabs, shiite and sunni. i think that most iraqis do not talk about the alternatives or the first identification and everything else second. i think the danger of being too close identified with the ambitions bothers a lot of the iraqis on both sides. i think that -- i don't know that one hears is much talk about independence accept that i

think that a lot of the kurds also see that this is a very dangerous time. they are fighting against each other in traditional fashion. in northern iraq they are fighting against each other for power and control and they don't seem to be interested in either one of these groups so i don't think it is a good time for them to talk about it. so i guess what i am saying is for better or for worse iraq will survive but despite all of these difficulties, iraq is making progress and is the second-largest producer of legal and there is movement on the oily hydrocarbon with the kurds. let's hope that it goes to the next level. but there is room for some kind of something which is a little bit more encouraging than the gloom and doom that we have

talked about. >> i do agree every six months [inaudible] it does hold people together. so you have a lot of different communities. that still has an appeal to the iraqis and the same tangible incentives are there for the major incentives is the fact of the oil revenue is the most likely to seek independence any time soon. even if they want to go that route, they have to work for years to go because at the moment it is completely dependent. they are completely dependent on baghdad for the revenue.

they have a revenue stream and as a result you have to work with baghdad and for the other areas for the separate regions the calls are concerning and they do not materialize to an independent region and the necessity for national reconciliation to the country because you don't want those to be much more dominant at some point in the future that would be easily materialized, and so you have the right government and everybody else and the stakeholders have to work on the national reconciliation it will be knocked in the interest of iraq to have any group event per preceding the marginalization,

not feeling fairly treated by the state as you have in iraq at the moment. one last point with these just so we can give the audience and the viewers an idea about these that they not only emanate from the provinces into the majority of the population or iraq and kurdistan but in some places they emanate from basra as well but they feel unjustly treated by the federal government because that most of the revenue of the revenue comes from basra but if you look at the state of affairs it is not in good shape so it is not always about the sectarians. sometimes economic reasons also play a role. >> nobody mentioned the other minorities. they are literally between iraq and a hard place concentrated in

that area of the disputed territory and i thought it was interesting it will undercut the demand for the territory and might help the government to defuse the issue that would be an interesting development because they would be winners and. >> i'm going to be unfair to the panelists and do they speed around if you can answer in about 30 seconds. the other panelists are not invited to comment on this question. can you talk about the effect of low turnout among the sunnis and if it is in portland do you think it would be different based on the suppression of the vote and kind of a voluntary boycott? >> i have 30 seconds? >> you do. >> the threat is serious.

in 2,005 they didn't embrace a political process wholeheartedly as iraq and shia and that led to increasing violence in those areas and provide opportunities for other groups to come in. athis time around they are engaged in a very vigorous campaign. some cases in broad daylight distributing leaflets to people they participate in their electoral process so this would be the major driver in a participation. there is always a possibility because iraq in general has had many electoral processes that some people may not be interested but it would be the most damaging and most serious.

he talked about how the postelection maneuvering will be certainly dictated in watching him and baghdad and i think that you gave a kind of short rest to tehran. perhaps you want to talk about the affect on the other states i don't think they will have a major influence. they would have to engage and the question is how much can iran afford to get involved in iraq considering how involved it is in serious and how it's watching what's happening in afghanistan as well. i would say that the domestic factors are the most significa

significant. >> with that we will turn to our audience. >> can you touch a little bit more on the predictor? >> of the trajectory? we would start with the eight-year war which a lot of people haven't forgotten and some days the iranians like to remember that iraq should pay them reparations and by the way we don't like the borderline. and that oil field is really ours. i think that the iranians forget. they forget that they have much more to care for and they start talking about these things and of course it just gets the iraq he is going as well. but yes, iran had a real opportunity, open border, 900-mile border, nothing to prevent the flow of traffic. we have something like i've seen

so many different numbers on the millions com, not just to visito the holy cities from all four of them, especially, bu that they e to do business, to trade. traffithe traffic is up. that is a major industry. but for all of these reasons the presence is there and you hear more persian spoken in many streets and the money is accepted as a point of the rea realm. they are providing gas and do control the flow of water especially in southern iraq which they shown from time to time but they have a lot of power and i'm not even talking about their presence in the country back and forth knowing that the most important although he may not be there in the present is the head of the force

and the irg c.. he was a major figure in iran and he is now responsible for the war in serious of course. but he is a powerful figure, and he has influence with the sunni and the shia. so there is no clean line ethically or sectarian. there's all kind of elements, but they were able to penetrate a lot of organizations. remember they trained the brigade that came to the police. it involved the security and a lot of different ways that are hard to remove but i think it is a matter of time. i would say this for a long time now that their influence was at its greatest point. it's going to take a long time to separate that out more.

that iraq is always going to have to think about what they want and what they could do. they are not in a position to deny and most is mandatory for anybody that wants to go up the political ladder is not the financial as well. >> anything to add? >> the relations are much more dynamic and complex than iran. because that is what you would hear in the media. it doesn't work this way. they know they have to work with the government because as they described they are very involved in the efforts on the different levels. at the end of the day looking at

the past elections it is the result and another words they give the mandate to the political group and they would be much more dominant. they will always have a role and others will have a role, but the election results would be. >> the >> my understanding is they tend to be a little bit more cooperative than other countries in the middle east. my first question is do you see that being the case to work together in a better way and how

public are they? >> i've got.com absolutely. >> it is a very vibrant society. some of them do work on awareness in the process and how it works and what we need to do and you also with any other sector in the country you have a lot of competition between the groups and some of that becomes counterproductive to educating the public and raising the electoral process. the society as much as it is trying it has received a lot of

training but still the culture is restricted by the fact that you have to work with the government and you can be easily by the government and that is a negative outcome. the positive outcome is that all of the political parties are resource and they know they have to work with the society and therefore they train their own groups and so everyone will create its own society groups and you will see those cases happening. >> going back to that we don't see a lot of that. we don't get a lot of information. but they are doing more than anyone else to bring the civil society groups together regardless of their background

and one of the things he's done by making the parliament so powerless and the groups are a lot of traditional religious or tribal opposition is more difficult for example for women, women who want to be in parliament and politics and want to run and have a role but they face difficulty which goes beyond. they are a major part of the society. and i think that again, we need to pay more attention to those things as well. >> they are trying to get leverage.

you seem to be implying that under the bill it's probably not a very serious. why do you think that an [inaudible] >> there were two misconceptions. when i talked about the leverage in the remarks that i addressed they were to especially describe the era arab sunnis and i'm not pessimistic about that i think i said i was optimistic that the recent deals where baghdad has agreed to allow them to export

the sale of 100,000 barrels a day which they have by the way sitting in storage tags because they are playing a game and they are encouraging them because they want the money from the transit sales and connections with baghdad even though they hate to say how he feels about maliki. if you are turkey and have a choice between the kurds or baghdad, and your going to choose i would guess baghdad because there is more to be gained by justin kurdish oil but in the whole country and the investment and reconstruction and money to be made. so leverage is important for anybody that doesn't have or want to have some kind of influence over the power.

they think they have that and can use it to play off against baghdad. the problem is that syria has changed everything. he can no longer claim. he wasn't the head of the kurds. there is the ambitious for unity. i think i'm taking a very serious blow because he didn't factor in how his relationship with turkey woul will take you n anathema to support. but if they were anti-turkish that's where their interest lies so if you want their issues are more divided now that they have been included.

>> i would just add it and she's absolutely correct good relationships are more important on a whole host of issues than the relations and the beauty is if alternately you choose baghdad it's not like the oriole in kurdistan is going to stand the ground you can have your cake and eat it too if they were to independently ultimately they are going to have to acquiesce to export in baghdad. and so turkey is in a win-win situation. either way whether it goes with baghdad it is going to get eventually the short-term or long-term resources. >> my question what is the outcome [inaudible]

>> we are going to quote you on this later. who wants to start? she just came back from baghdad. >> the most optimistic? i like my second scenario. they are going to win the majority. and i think that they will support whoever, whichever one looks like they are in a stronger position. but he has made so many enemies i could see that he would not survive the second round in which the coalition selects the prime minister and there are others who i think would be

acceptable. he has angered so many people he has worked whether it is for his own self-interest we are going to go through another term there is no end in sight what the end-stage really is. does he see himself perpetuating his rule he has a propensity to want to require power that make him look that way. anybody that did what he did in weakening the parliament and taking the court under control and getting rid of the independent commission to monitor elections and a lot of other things a good dissection of the military to have when did we last see all of that? maybe this is not a good idea maybe we need to vote for

someone else while we have the opportunity to do so so i would say that i like my scenario that maliki does not get a vote. it is a possibility, but i don't know and i don't think the united states is going to make any part we are not going to weigh in on that it is dangerous for the candidate for our own interests. >> it is viewed by many as an ideal scenario and not necessarily with the complete change in office but at the minimum restricting the cover of the prime minister because he had come somebody did the power to the level that raises the

questions and what does it mean for the country. that is what the iraqis are thinking but that is the government formation and i would say we will close that bridge once we get to it because my ideal scenario i don't use the word optimistic at all but the favorite scenario is free and fair election day and not a good turnout but other iraq is but in particular the iraq he sunnis and less stabilization because you can't actually have that and they are instigated by in some cases the militia or even to state actors. but you have to have those

conditions if you want any scenario to work out. otherwise, you won't be able to have an optimistic scenario at all. popular ticket items on the province has initiated the creation that there won't be. given that it is kind of stuck between the issuing of certain degrees and the board of commissioners and the resignation do you think there are proper mechanisms to ensure

that elections and are there mechanisms for the resolution should there be any allegations of what can be considered. [inaudible] we haven't mentioned one of the strongest influences of should we vote for who should we vote for. he only wants actually recommended voting for the chance of a candidate to my knowledge candidate encourage voting without for the shia bloc in the first election but i think most of them tend to support voting and the process

and i think that is a strong incentive for many iraqis to do this and i think that they well. i think the other thing is that the security is going to be so tight. what has happened in previous elections is that in three days or four or five under the traffic is virtually shuts down. you must be in your home area to vote, but there's not going to be a lot of trailing around. so to give an opportunity for the terrorist groups who will try to do something one has to assume that that might help to ensure better security. the only cleric that has to do something political is how it is not permitted to vote for what the non- shia candidate that is listening. i don't think that is going to have much weight in iraq. in terms of the process itself,

the commission is in charge of elections and has always done a good job. it is in a very tough position and different political players want to influence the decisions. one of the necessary steps especially for the voting day when people go out and vote is that every political group will have representatives at the voting stations and so all the groups are watching each other and they get a tally from the station and that will be important. the scenario is similar to 2010 when it announced into the feminist or maliki -- as soon as it is announced he will go on tv and he disputed that there is no and he said that we expected many more seats than we received and therefore the process is there and we demand a recount.

at this time in the feminist or maliki -- prime minister maliki says to the #hearing they might have heard some members in baghdad as well tha that of thei parliament is 328 seats. the expectation by his group is that they will get 70 to 110. 110 i have been looking for 80 years now. i would be very surprised if they get 100 because it is a very high number but that is the expectation. the same scenario that happened years ago would present itself in which the prime minister would dispute the results and when that happened last time the u.s. forces were in iraq and they were able to play a role. at this time aside to know when the world is going to stop it to

change the vote by anybody. >> i will weigh in. we have a tradition in iraq into the metric that i like to use for this prior to the 2009 basra was almost totally controlled by the party. in the 2009, the deal went down to three seats, something like that and the state of the law won the outright majority in basra. in 2013, the state of the law lost its majorit majority and ia part of the become about upset everyone else and everyone else banned anyone but the state of the law coalition which ended up with the teams and a different name from i forget the name of the party down there but it is a derivative party having the governorship in basra.

so they expect their votes will be counted fairly and that it te would actually be uprising in iraq were the election not to be free and fair. now a lot of asterix on the numbers. there's lots of things that go on and that's always something to watch very carefully who is being disqualified and why and what has been the justification and does the qualification of the candidate have any relationship to the statements that have been made by the head of his party's likely. not only relative to the government but to the people that control the application commission. this is one of the few places where the ruling coalition is not necessarily in charge of what is going on. and then of course as we discuss what goes on in the post election formation can also get

squarely. >> following the election is there a delay with being able to implement the government and who will be the key player influencing the negotiations and the first government to dispute that negotiation. >> i were to point out it's about ten months to form the government. i don't think that any outside -- i don't think that anyone could have speeded the process that were moved around at all. that was all iraq. it depends on the strength of the opposition, but nobody

counted on him being able to manipulate the court and what a coalition means. he changed the meaning of that in his favor. he caught people by surprise. >> this time it is very likely to go. this time it could take a similar period of time. they will be. he has been despite his attempt to appear neutral parties say that he still supports us and that might benefit them so he will be very influential and the supreme court will also be ready because the law itself will be

conducted easily and if any group decides to appeal it it might be considered no but at this point nobody has decided to do that on the negotiations to group received what it wanted. each group received what it was negotiated for but after the supreme court is influenced by the minister they will play a role and we mentioned in the previous example with the prime minister receiving a majority of the seat but that still doesn't matter. other countries won't matter that this is an iraqi process and at some point they might say, a. or b. that will take place but it is a process.

>> let me get the last question from the embassy of iraq. since the questions were asked to make one point and comment on it. [inaudible] >> maybe they didn't want me to. of these scenarios -- i think that if we were to predict how it is going to unfold once we have the result it has to do with a major word that needs to

be emphasized more, trust. that is what happens in iraq. we have two ways to break the cycle. it means everybody is involved in the nobody is accountable and now one way to do it is to not get involved on the involvement of the political majority is basically to have the quality election or what they are trying to give when it creates the political blocs that has been shaped by all groups and the constraint on that is that the

no one wants to join another group because they will not get the support and the vote and their constituency. >> so what do we have here? people get their vote and join whomever they want. they will not be mad at them. but then also another constraint on that in other words three parties together is because from history we have seen in the past people across the aisle. the most obvious of them may be unknown joined and they want the

seats and they had 91 seats. they had a share of parliamentary committees, etc.. they came and many of them are prominent and they said okay give us a couple of minutes. so they ended up not getting any in the cabinet and that is the reason why it is no more. but we came as secular. the same thing with the sunnis. they are seen as footnotes because it is not -- he has to

first recognize the others and he cannot go and get two or three individuals who as the two ministers and the minister of youth and every other ministry is taken by another group in the coalition. so at the end of the day they can work in another group and they will come second into the kurds will come third. they wouldn't have the majority enough to make the government. they would have had to have some questions where in my safer? in my safer to go with five or

6 feet because the print industry and that experience didn't work well for that. given the scenario of 2010 which is disgruntled about of a well maybe at the end of the day have to protest because that is much safer with any other group. [inaudible] >> we are now out of time. >> those are very good points

people would rise above those interests but i think that what you say only underscores the fact that iraq is far from the national reconciliation yet. it's good to see you first of all. the possibility of the 2010 scenario is what we know about iraq surprises are responsible to the 2010 elections and very few people expected that that would be former prime minister very few people expected at the prime minister to perform well in 2009 so i would consider the possibility that after the surprise in the post elections that is when the consistency

would come in to influence. and during the negotiations i would say that the big positive take away is a part of my closing statement that despite all of the violence that is taking place at least the elections are going to take place and that is a positive indication and it is only one step and another positive step for the violence to be contain contained. what we tell our clients i think is very applicable for certainly the government formation process to tell our clients your deal is not going to take the path you think it is going to take and it

is going to take at least twice as long as your most pessimistic case. for the invite and thank you very much for your interest in iraq it seems like only ten of us in town still follow it and we are thrilled to see you what you today. thank you very much. [applause] [inaudible] [inaudible conversations]

both the house and senate and a number of members what they are up to in their own districts.

jeb bush both of you want to know about him he's a longtime friend of mine. he is also my tenant. we saw him yesterday at lunch. >> did you see him yesterday? >> though, he lives in coral gables florida.

and i suspect that is part of what shapes his views, the fact it is an immigrant community, and a lot of times the debate can be about government statistics and how many people cross the border and how many children of undocumented, it can all be about faceless numbers. but when you live in an immigrant community and frankly when you watch a spanish tv you know these stories and you know that there's people coming there is mothers who, women who get raped by human smugglers when they are crossing the border. maybe they are taking a raft to the united states and leaving children behind him a nazi for a decade in the hope they can come here and find work and help

support those families and loved ones they left behind. have they broken the law lacks absolutely. i would tell you it's hard to argue when i tell you the circumstances, that it's not an act of love for those families. but i think that where he is and where he lives and the stories he knows shapes that perception. i don't think you have to read much when it comes to jeb because you know it surprising that he pretty much told us what he is thinking and where he's headed. he's a very disciplined guy and he's going to stick to his timeline when it comes to his own internal decision-making process he said what his criteria is. it needs to be okay with his family and by that i don't think it means the mother as much as it means.

what effect is it going to have on them? running for the president today means doing it as a family. it affects the entire family's life and the entire family privacy. he also said he wants to be able to do it joyfully. he wants to be able to offer a vision. he wants to be able to offer solutions. he said he's going to sit down and think about it over the summer think about it later this year and make a decision. i know him, he means what he says and he says what he means. he has the politics and the political piece. people who are trying to promote the sale of a book or maybe try again to get a gig on cable news which isn't bad. [laughter] get themselves on dancing with the stars, who knows trying to

find some relevancy. he is a very serious guy who is doing very well. he has a fulfilled life so i think it is about that vocation to surface and is it the right thing for the family and for the country? ..

patting itself on the back with

. >> welcome back. we will now proceed with our fifth panel, and i know we're all looking forward to hearing from them. >> thank you, chairman hersman. as a reminder you will need to push the button on the microphone and it will indicate if the mic is on. please bring your mic next close to be sure to turn it off when you're finished speaking. next panel will explore how cruise lines plan for emergencies, carry out evacuations and account for personnel following and emergency. as well as life-saving systems found on cruise ships to our panelists are mr. rai caluori, executive vice president, fleet operations of princess cruises. dr. daniel pavel, deputy head of

safety and risk, system engineering. mr. niels fraende, sales and engineering for viking life-saving. and captain hans hederstrom. >> mr. caluori. >> thank you. thank you very much, chairman hersman, vice chairman, thank you very much for the opportunity to present today. i think one of the lessons i've learned is that you never stop learning in this business. having sat in the audience for today's i've learned some incredible amount. i'm at a slight disadvantage from a lot of the other panelists who presented over the last two days because i don't have a marine or a technical background per se but ahead in the cruise industry for 30 years and started my great 30 years ago with princess, seven years at sea. what this does allow me to do with my team is ask those

fundamental questions that sometimes are not asked by the subject matter experts which conservative tried a lot of continuous improvement and change. my job today and i've been asked to present on our emergency response center facility. the components of response to major incidents are indeed myriad, and in addition to the functions of the emergency response center itself, there are of course many other response which you see listed here. but as i said today we're going to focus on emergency response center itself. princess cruises emergency response center, or erc for short, is a purpose response center fully equipped and ready to operate around the clock. this dedicated center provides a base of operations to the key response team supporting a ship and coordinates with the relevant extra response and rescue agencies.

this critical part of our overall emergency response is focused solely on the safety of those on board and any impact on the environment. and we very much believe in continuous improvement, and our current center is actually our sixth iteration, with each version having improved both in terms of ergonomic layout and the ability to better display information. most recently we have also added the capability to start the systems remotely so that the center is ready to operate as soon as a team walks through the door. we've also added the ability to be able to display a ships voyage data recorder, or ddr. in real-time and we're currently in the process of making it possible for the erc team to interrogate the ship of safety management and control system, including the tax system. for example, we would be able to

see whether a sprinkler deployed any particular cabin from the erc. without doubt, ma the most striking feature of the erc is the 21 by nine-foot video board that is used to display management is located in our boardroom, two floors away from the erc, and, in fact, i am not even allowed into the erc during

an inspection. we believe it's very important that the responding team is absolutely under no commercial pressure whatsoever industry to take response decisions purely on the basis of what is best for the ship and for the souls on board. one of the most important functions during an emergency is how we share information. we use virtual command center technology, i'm sure many of you are familiar with this tool. this tool enables us to see and use information simultaneously and allows for rapid dissemination. one of the reasons we're structured in the webinar is that it allows us to respond to both a major emergency and, indeed, a small event such as a group of passengers who may miss a ship due to late arriving flight. all using the same system. we simply activate only the response modules needed for that specific situation. what this does, it goes a long

way in ensuring the use of familiarity with the entire system. inside the erc the responding team is comprised of specialists in the various areas of emergency response. as you can see from this list, i won't go through it all but the team is led by a team leader supported by a range of discipline. and on any one day this team could comprise, and these are all on princess staff, a retired coast guard captain, three or more men become a chief anita, a doctor, a registered nurse, a naval architect and several other qualified deck or engine officers. and, of course, on board the emergency response is managed by the captain from the bridge year looking at the facilities itself, the front video more specifically, the video wall is totally flexible in terms of display that can show multiple or a single image of almost any

electronic data. in normal operation we were display about 10 different inputs which is selected to be relevant to the incident and can be arranged in any location and size to get the optimum clarity. some of the more standard items we display, to give you a few examples, would be the eeoc. this gives up-to-the-minute information on the status of the response of the incident and any casualty information. this is shared with all of the key response varies throughout the company and can also be shared with outside agencies by providing them with a web link. the web eoc ship event board, shows the information entered by the web eoc operator on board the ship, and this is key, because it's tracking the incident specifically from the ship's perspective. web eoc as i mentioned links the

ship, the erc and all parts of the company response, all operators into the communications and their information where it is recorded and can be shared in real time and then, of course, posted, we can didn't interrogate the web eoc from lessons learned. all afc team members have action checklist which are completely of chronic, items can be attached to the into so objects such as photographs can be sent from the ship to the erc or indeed broadcast made by the captain to the passengers and crew can be shared with the teams ashore. navigational charts for the area can be displayed, also visible. toshiba is able to send conditions to the erc where they can be accessed by our naval architect and the ship advice of any requisite action. the erc can monitor the progress of passengers and can route run

reports in the same way as the ship. since this system is part of our access control system, it is also effective report as it knows which passengers are ashore and, therefore, removes them from the mustering requirement. weather informatiinformati on and input from the ships webcam can also be displayed. ships plan such as fire and damage stability plans are also available. and ownership tracking system which is called purple finder is often also displayed as it refreshes in short intervals and gives actor information on the ship's course of speed. during predeparture muster drills and in a real emergency muster, hand-held electronic scanners read each passengers cruise card to keep track of who is on the ship and, indeed, he was reported to their muster station so we can quickly identify any missing passengers.

this electronic mustering system records all passengers into the system as they arrived at their muster station or evacuate the ship. so the shoreside emergency response center can also track the progress of any emergency passenger movement. one question that always comes up is so often to be conducted drills. we aim to hold a major drill with a ship in our 17 ship fleet at least once a quarter. in addition we hold ongoing individual and group training for erc team members, ma and since the ships use web eoc as part of their weekly cruise drills we can monitor their performance and conduct regular web eoc drills with them. so the quick answer is that the erc issues for some type of drill or training every week. another question that we feel is what happens if all of the

electronic systems fail? building redundancy into our systems both a short and onboard is very important, a theme throughout this forum. and the erc is equipped in the case of a local emergency or power failure. are building has its own emergency generator so we can be independent of the city partner in addition the erc has a 30 minute uninterruptible power supply so that we can insurance systems will not be affected event of a city power outage. while the emergency generators come online. the erc is without doubt a hub of activity directly related to a ship. but shortly after the erc mobilizes, our customers response team also jumps into action to assist the customer service efforts. we call this the passenger unit. this includes many departments comprising customer relations,

logistics, air and hotel operations. each team has its own duties and procedures to best assist with any issues affecting passengers am including providing hotel accommodation and revise their schedules as required. the primary team carrying directly for passengers is a care team, the specially trained employers provide face-to-face human service response to affected passengers and their families. human service response is a practical needs-based approach to helping people who have experienced trauma. this team provides what is needed starting with the basics, food, shelter, information. to help someone who may not be at the time capable of self-care. the princess cruises care team is comprised of more than 400 trained members, but we can also rely on the carnival corporation grant to borrow care personnel when our numbers are not sufficient and/or when a location is closer to the incident in question. for example, we have used care

teams and incidents in europe as was carnival cruise lines teams to incidents in the caribbean. this team also has access to web eoc as was other comprehensive emergency tools. e. care is a toy used by the care team ground troops and for shipboard use to communicate new travel and hotel plans for passengers and crews. e-care also speaks to our reservation system which is called polar. if travel plans are passenger locations need to be changed, assistance connect. thanks to air booking tool and hotel assigned, we have the ability to mass rebooked air from an attack ship of passengers and crew, and place them in hotels before their flights. this is important to make sure we can make passengers as comfortable as possible and get them on as quickly as possible. just as in the erc this team conducted drills, meetings and

exercises designed to keep all emergency response organization team members up to speed and comfortable with all of these goals, procedures at all times. over all emergency response is a companywide process to ensure the best outcome for both passengers and crew in any situation. our emergency response center and care teams are important tools to make sure the system is always ready to provide the best care to our passengers and crew. in conclusion, the safety of our passengers and crew is indeed our top priority. we believe we are prepared and equipped to manage an incident both in terms of the immediate response coordinated by the erc and the subsequent impact and follow-up. we continue to lead on incidents inside and outside and shoot with due to continuous improvement in emergency response. and, finally, given the scale of the carnival corporation, we always have additional resources available through cross brand collaboration. thank you very much.

>> thank you very much for your presentation. our next presenter is dr. daniel pavel. >> thank you for the introduction. madam chair, board members, and thank you for the opportunity to be on this panel. -- >> could you pull the microphone just a bit closer? >> is that okay? my presentation will address preparedness of modern cruise vessels, and i will start with some definitions to get sound basis on the simulations i shall later. first of all, we have of course rules assigned on board a vessel. every space, a group of space is has at least two means of escape. there's requirement on lighting

and signing. we have assembly stations for locating and mastering all the persons on board in an emergency. these shelby in the vicinity of embarkation deck. the embarkation station, that is a station that is a deck where the lifeboats or life raft are boarded. for the embarkation we have different faces and different rules regarding that. firstly towards assembly station, that is the first phase. then we will muster the passenger and crew on the assembly station. for this we have a mandatory

guideline for all processes. this is not that mandatory. we heard this morning and yesterday already on, that's not mandatory for cruise vessels but it is on the way to mandatory for all passenger vessels. further on we have the embarkation process, a process from is in the station into the lifeboats and life raft, including launching. for this we have maximum 30 minutes time. then another item we have, the boarding of the lifeboat, including launching, has time of 10 minutes. for the embarkation simulation, the look on all these faces. we have by the imo guideline we have two different matters available, simple five and

advanced. advanced method, and i know for all new persons on cruise vessels this matter is applied to the guideline gives us for different simulation cases for day and night cases. for each day case, for each of these two cases, you have a case with escape routes available in case with reduced capability of the escape routes. we have to remember that these cases are benchmarking simulation cases, so they most probably will not be 100% the case in emergency, but these cases serve as good benchmarking

items. it was similar to the aviation industry where we have tests on new flights with the defined objects in the way of escape and definition of less like. -- less like. so how is the direction calculated? we saw that, we saw that equation yesterday, but now i may have a closer look. first of all, there's the travel time, that is t. a safety factor for covering unknown things and the safety factor for doing simulation of

1.25. and then we have a second component that is embarkation and launching. as i said before, less than 30 minutes. it is allowed to have an overlap of both processes of one-third of the embarkation launching time. so 10 minutes. for cruise vessels we have by the guidelines maximum time of 80 minutes. so what are the characteristics? if you look on the advanced matter, we simulate the country each individual on board and each person has its own walking speed and so on.

the movement of these individuals are simulated and we record it so you can check and assess the report in detail. the guideline gives us a set of many moments, 50 simulations, to get the variation of the result. normally we run more than 50, just to get some better basis of the results. i will show an example of the software, just an example of their, some other software on the market. but work all with the same basics. so as i said, the individuals,

create space and time. there's a freely definable rules for these people according to the escape plan of the vessel. the software tools have to be certified due to the process given in the guidelines. this video is showing us how this software gives -- no? could you please click on the video. okay. it shows, okay, the reality of the video but now it's skipped over and show how the simulation is doing it on the screen. this is an intermediate step at the end. the people are defined by dots

in this simulation, and you can follow every single person. perhaps we can run that another time, because it's a really -- just press on -- no. press again on the picture. okay. this shows that each individual person is simulated, and if you think on the cruise vessel there's 8000 people, that's massive of data and this will be assessed afterwards. okay. on this slide i have an example, and on the top right is a diagram shows the result of 500 simulations for one vessel. you can see the distribution of the results, and as defined in the guidelines, a significant

duration is the duration which is 95% of all the simulations. we get information about -- this is shown in this picture by one deck and then you can see that there are some areas where people will be during, will have a congestion. it's not showing individual people. it's showing areas where people are located during the application. in this case, 10%, the creature from the guidelines, 10% of the total time is there's a person in the red area. and if you do that in the design

space of vessels you can change things, but you can also see if you have an existing vessel, it is hard to change, design things to you can of course change the and operation of things are perhaps routes, but that's also not easy. finally, i would like to say a little bit on the further imo development. as we heard already yesterday and this morning, it is a process went on after the incident that these simulations should be mandatory for all passenger ships, and not only -- that will be most probably be, probably a sign within the next,

some of the next item of sessions. of course, there's a discussion how to differentiate the needs for new vessels and for existing vessels, that there is need to differ between both types because of the set items. further, there's need to distinguish different types of passenger vessels, because there are some vessels with specific -- i have listed some specific for cruise vessels here on this slide, and main item is that we have true a silly station which is more or less on all vessels. the difference is in the stations and the passenger a silly station's. we have routing of the cruise, perhaps main vertical zones. we have of course to talk about operation measures on board of the cruise ships which may be

different to ferries because of higher number of crewmembers. we should consider a counter flow and crossing flows due to these two different flows, passenger and crew, and we may think on the consideration of open deck areas which is at the moment not considered for taxi fares. thank you again to be in this panel. >> thank you, doctor paula. our next presenter is mr. fraende from vikings life-saving. mr. fraende? >> chairman and board members as well as stakeholders of the industry, thank you very much for the opportunity to represent the life-saving manufacturers on this forum. has my position at viking, i'm

responsible for our development programs on new systems and new risky means from passenger vessels of course, event also the engineering part of existing systems and the overall contact to the industries different stakeholders. in connection with marine evacuation systems, we as a manufacture of course are very much aware of that is in an incident that leads to a loss of the ship, might be the last resort for people to get in safe haven and out of harm's way. and, therefore, it is important that equipment like this works under all conditions. it is governed under regulatory three, what actually is required

equipment on board a ship. if you are looking at cruise vessels, as has been mentioned earlier over the last couple days, that is not directly mentioned but they are categorized as ships on international voyages, and if we look at what is mandatory to handle it go been on board these ships, then on the lifeboat capacity, you should have a 75% coverage of the full amount of passengers and crew on board the ship and you can cut 25% of the primary capacity with other element, meaning they would launch marine evacuation systems. all ships have a 25% over capacity. and that overcapacity is covered by life raft. being part of the marine evacuation systems or being logical life rafts. those 25% are as a sort of

redundancy in the evacuation scenario on board so, therefore, if for one or another reason the path of evacuation system should fail in the operation. the development drivers that we are seeing in the industry, that is a capacity required its. we've seen earlier today, presentations on that capacity and ship sizes have gone up dramatically over the last double of decades. and that, of course, put requirements also to the capacities that we have on the evacuation site. also the safety aspects of crew and launch are extremely important, and there's been an increased awareness both by operators but also by class and from the different states on how crewmembers are interacting with the evacuation systems in

connection with a giving evacuation. then also ship assigned of course there's this important. that is again driven a little bit by size, but you could literally say that in some incidents due to the high capacity, you are running out of ship side and that could then put requirements to you getting a high-capacity for ship side that we have available. looking at what is currently on the market or in the evacuation systems, since 2000 there's been a heavy increase in the marine evacuation systems primarily driven by the role that came into force after estonian and, therefore, of course it has affected a lot on the fish. and the last, it was also found a widespread usage in connection with cruise vessels and

currently the our over 2800 marine evacuation systems use worldwide on approximately 860 vessels. if we only a little bit on the development of the time, then one of the most significant developments have been from nes generation one to two has been a capacity. the first generation in evacuation system was characterized by the judge ago by a platform over into a life raft. and that had a lot of impact in connection with handling, primarily because they were used very small life raft in connection with the evacuation. just as i compared it to the complexity of those systems have, in typically handling integration within evacuation will be nifty to 100 handling steps in connection with the evacuation. when you're looking at a second generation systems, then they are characterized with a become

all about automatic and a lot more with redundancy built in. they are also not directly into the life raft so you're not getting contact so much within fiber. the price for the rest has also gone up and that is led to the handling steps in connection with the handling has gone down significantly and i think been reduced even though the capacity has gone up with approximately 60%. one of the main drivers between generation one and two were also the requirement for new test programs. that was driven by the director that came in force in the end of the '90s. that outlined a lot of different nist requirements with a focus especially on the functionalities. if we are looking at what actually is important in connection with evacuation

systems, then there are two key aspects. first, of course the functional safety. the last -- they should work under all conditions. that is more or less self-explanatory or. when you're looking at the aspects for technical reliability, reliable, has to be a reliable, then it has to be documented through tests and through ability. with stress test. and that is designed to lay out in the mas -- many as directed. there is the heavy weather see trial as one of the most important exercises to conclude. the equipment is tested under heavy sea conditions. that is 3.5 meters significant wave height as the minimum. and as a matter of fact,

there've been a few challenges we have is finding weather conditions that are bad enough to go out and actually test the equipment. but it's again self explanatory. the evacuation system should also worked under extreme weather conditions. then the equivalent also has lag time and that is document. for biking, the design less time of the system that is typically a proximate 20 years and that means the cruise vessel would typically see two updates through its lifetime, period. we have over the last two to three years experience on biking that all major cruise lines have put in into this on updating all the lifesaving appliances. and we have initiated together with a lot of the major cruise lines now renewable programs that have led to make sure the

government is going to an earlier retirement. if we are looking at the other aspects, the ease of use, functionality, handling steps has to be before the actual evacuation of has to be minimized to the minimum. also because it's important you can put focus on the evacuees instead of focusing on technical issues in connection with your evacuation systems. then comes the handling steps under the evacuation. and generally everything has to be situated in its design so the crewmembers have been peace in remembering how the functionality is. the second key aspect is the crew interface. there is no doubt that the human interface is one of the most important part in a successful evacuation. one of the first things is that

the crew has to have the comfort zone established by good and solid knowledge to know how the systems are working. and also to know that they can stand as good instructors for passengers who have to be a part of an evacuation any given situation. they also have to be brought into a situation through training where they trust the equipment under all circumstances. in connection with the training, -- important aspects. equipment training, that is by deployment on board the ship, other important elements because that is where the crew members have the chance of actually learning how to deal with the systems. the means of training, the actual equipment or training equipment on board the ships, it

is videos and animations and it is manuals, and it is test the crewmembers on different levels. and over the lates latent perioe have developed quite a few training programs also together with cruise lines where the crewmembers are tested on the internet and is certified for some given actions on board the ships. window looking at the next generation, then the aim is of course to raise the bar in safety. one of the goals that we would like to eliminate technical errors and would also like to eliminate human heirs to that extent but it is possible, knowing in fact that it is perhaps a little bit over what is achievable, but is a goal. when we're looking at the new generations, focus on automatic launch so that the systems commit launched automatically,

not just on the evacuation station but also from the bridge. to the extent that might be in servicing the redundancy and backup systems, meaning the systems secure automatically can also be backed up with an automatic launch system is the first system fails and then have the manual for the two systems actually. that is to avoid we're getting singapore's defenders in connection with the evacuation process that will put a major part of the evacuation capacity out of usage. also the evacuation flow has been important in connection to the new develop systems to secure the people easily can get in and away from the actual embarkation point on the evacuation system. with all aspects of the human interface if your steps in connection with the launch, no actual crew handling after the launch has taken place so that

the crew actually can focus on the control -- crowd control instead of focusing on the technical aspects. training programs, i said before thavisiting developed together h the cruise line to secure we actually are getting a spot on required training and makes it possible also important to shift to do follow-up training. in generally, you can say all stakeholders and industries sure the common interest and responsibility for creating a safe environment that see. we as suppliers definitely acknowledge that and we'll do our utmost to secure that also safe systems in the future. thank you. >> thank you very much for your presentation. our next presenter is captain hernan zini from royal caribbean international captain zini? >> thanks again, chairman

hersman, and vice chairman, members of the board for giving me the opportunity to talk a little bit about the mustering. basically with the introduction of large ships as we all secondly looking at ways to improve and enhance safety through technology. and to give it a bit of background on this topic, the traditional way we did the mustering, in many ships is by having a paper manifest basically at the smb stations. they are the latest with the station can roll call the names of our guests. basically update the list and that information will flow through the different lived up to the bridge that is typically managed by the director on board the ship, past onto the bridge. we realized there are other ways to do this more effectively and timely. this really gave the opportunity

to use technology. when we introduce the l.a. since class can you probably saw some of the militias we've been doing with the investigation society. we also spent time on technology for design. the lifeboats and also looking at new technologies. we have more than 1300 cameras on the larger ships. the use of the two screens from the bridge the captain can talk directly to the guest in be seen to pass information. we have the p.a. system inside the lifeboats that they can still can't get from the bridge before launching. just as important, means of electronic mustering. so this is something we started basically with the introduction of the oasis sure. the electronic mustering, the way it works is you have a pda devices which is a handheld

device. it's updated all the time. we have wi-fi on the ship they're basically they have access to the pda and the stations can check the arrival of the guests. there's something everybody carries with themselves all the time. we can swipe those cards and instantly account for the person showing at that station. typically, you must allow for check in both the persons of gas and crew out of their smb stations but also at a time aborting the survival craft. we can have a separate manifest to see how we are populating survival class. so it's two checkpoints.

one at assembly and one time at boarding. this gets updated on the bridge where you can see the smb station, the population. you can see the percentage completion. you can see it by stations. you can see these also by, able to manage information in different ways. you can see at one station point for whatever reason customer should be there and they -- timely decisions. we can also see attendance where we do our assembly drills before departure. we can see the percentage of attendance which is very high. just as well in common than if the other just decided for whatever reason not to take part of the drill. so this is just another screen that shows the percentage again. the pda basically mustering to me basically can see who is

assigned to stations, who is income who's out. you can also see in this case people have been checked on different station. so that somebody for some reason went to a radicalization, while the person is to showing in an unsigned muster station you can see on the system these persons have been checked in somewhere else on the ship. these were used making sure you have at all times idf was been checked. you can learn basically, through the same technology if someone has missed a car to commute ago to search for person and enter it manually. so we have redundancy to complete the mustering. this is basically mentioned. recently we've been changing the system and the company that allows us to go to next generation of mustering. some of the recent upgrades we are working with supplier, if a

guest is checking station and for some reason decides to wander around the ship because maybe they become separate from the family or a particular reason, and is checked at another station, once you check them in that station, the system counts a guest at the last checking point and takes away from whether checked previously. so by doing this, i would say we continue to find all the different centers that we can see, complexities to mustering through technology to better accountability and better visibility on where a just and where our crew are. it to me just decided to do one station, we can understand from there we might need to have a different route to get into other survival craft. we can plan in advance instead of waiting to react. we also have recently upgraded, a full disability of people that

are visiting bishops. if somebody is its import, -- [inaudible] so we have a place to also muster the visitors and have full accountability. you can see no with the new technology who is in port, who has been on the ship goes off the ship and clearly accounting for every single person whether it is a guest, visitor will basically be on assistance and we can account for each soul on board the ship while out port as well. with other benefits. we can basically tell who is at each tender. it's always good to know who has been a barking issue. that is in a national some the capabilities of the system.

we do also think, all the cruise lines through different ways we are thinking of technology is deathly one interest. when you use id of a different way of accountability. risks a lot of comments from the public side because also -- we understand before this gets to implement did in a way that tracks a guest, we have to do some predatory side behind us but initially what we see the full valley is for accounting crew and particularly also to assign, track our teams when they're fighting fires or we do drills for that. we know exactly where they are. the crew in general would be very good to catch for us to know how quickly the crew has gone to emergency stations and who is not adequately know. these are different technologies we are working with currently and we see they can offer for

the -- for the ability for us, to basically have better ways to account for every soul on board the ship given the information to the bridge anytime the man to make the right decisions. >> thank you very much. >> thank you very much, captain zini. chairman hersman, that concludes the presentation of this panel. >> please proceed with a technical panel questions. >> thank you. the chair for this panel is captain rob jones. >> thank you, gentlemen. mr. fraende, let's start off with you. the marine feedback systems that you install on board cruise ships, you did mention training. do you provide training every time you install? is the part of the contract with the cruise company? >> every time we install, yes,

it's part of the contract with the cruise company. the typical insult is also because, you could say it's first widely spread in the market for cruise lines over the last decade or then it has been in connection with new builds. and their the crew is trained on the shipyard by biking personnel and it is a requirement that 60% of the full capacity is actually deployed your so that you, in an actual full deployment we were testing the systems and also has an opportunity for going to the system and trying the whole handling of the system. the rest of the capacity it isn't as on the shipyard has to be tested in within the next 12 months. that way we are securing that also crewmembers that have gone on board the ship since the actual launch from the shipyard is getting that education that is required. >> thank you.

with this new technology and the application of it on these ships, do you see a time where the marine evacuation systems could actually overtake the number of lifeboats or the need for the lifeboats? >> yes, you could. there will be new development, no doubt about that, because if you look at innovation, innovation possibilities, then that would live in that area. but in connection with evacuation systems, you have to be very much aware of, doesn't -- they rely on the lifeboats and rely on the rescue board -- the rescue boat on board the ship. in order to achieve the replacement for the lifeboats is after our best development idea, deathly that you're getting proportion on the type of equipment as well. >> okay. thank you. just one clarification, on a

slight you showed combats a straight drop down beside a ship into one of those systems. does that slow the descent down? >> it slows the descent down. but you can say it relies on gravity to it guarantees you to get from point a to point b. but you are going to actually come depending on how long it is, between six to 12 segments that reduce your speed every time you pass the segment. and that way make it to a controlled descent that you getting out of it, securing that you also come out in a condition that you definitely want to be. >> okay, thank you. dr. pavel, the simulations and the speculations that you ran, how do you factor in, for lack of a better word, panic? if there was an emergency and smoke was filling the passageways, how do you account for that, other than just the regular exit through the

hallway? >> okay. from the guidelines that is not mentioned yet at the moment. you defecation, simulation with specific -- as i said, you block staircases or so. the smoke also in that area is not calculated in normal phase but if you step into, our system is designed worry of larger fire zones on board, then it is needed to do all the stuff that fire simulations, smoke come into action and so on. >> thank you. and on these calculations in your simulations brought in as a cruise ship company decide to build a new ship, is a brought in as an initial design? >> yet, that is bring in in early design stage.

that is mostly started when the yard has first dropped plant available. because you need to have input data. if you just have draft general arrangement, that doesn't help because you don't have any number of people rooting. so you need these basic information to start simulation. but the simulation is not the only thing you do. the yard also designs the roots according to code, and that is good starting point to design the routes. the simulation is mainly, mostly only a verification of this

starting point. >> all right, thank you. and one last question for you, sir. do your calculations, are they ever compared with actual personnel used in the same numbers? and how do they compare? >> yeah. i expected such a question. it is hard to compare that with him the full real test, because of the number of people. the algorithm used in the simulation models verified by universities in the smaller tests like walking speed in a corridor, on a stair and so on. >> thank you, sir. mr. caluori, you did say, this question ours comes up and i had to cross it out after you mentioned it, but you said once a quarter you do -- you do those

drills? >> yes. >> could you just walk me through one of those response drills? is everything at separate desks and a bell rings? just walk me through it. >> became very. we will agree on the timing of the full drill deployment of the erc. one thing we do is we will allow the ship to designate the incident because we want to be surprised. so we actually, ma even though there is a menu from which they can choose that we put together some years ago will allow the ship, the ship designated for the incident drill to choose the incident itself. so once the duty manager is called, and assume that we are in normal business hours, that would be within the office and, obviously, been timing to mobilize the erc is within a couple of minutes, out of business hours it would be a

maximum of 15 minutes. and then in that case we would mobilize it remotely using our web tool. we would mobilize the erc. all of the key members of the erc would deploy immediately to the room itself. there is a checklist of communications. i would be called, it's within my job to call the specific people to whom i report. we would convene in the boardroom. of respondents inside the room would then go through a series of checklists. there is one communicated with the ship. we would very much believe in limiting the amount of communication with the ship, so there's one single dedicated communiqué with the ship. we would also in federal alert external agencies as well. so, for example, in most of the drills quarterly drills we conduct we would work with coast guard and lloyds stability emergency response center, and flag space as well. so it's a for mobilization right

through to the conclusion of the incident. and i would add we would also involve the care team as well and mobilization of web eoc. >> about how long would one of these drills run? >> it can run all day. >> and one last question for you, sir. if you are operating, you can speak just to your company, unless you're aware of others, but if your vessels operating in remote regions, how do you ensure a quick response if there's no coast guard or navy assets? ..