tv Booknotes CSPAN July 19, 2014 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT
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you go in but you never have to ask for permission to serve or permission to lead. i think it's a really powerful example of the leadership question that's necessary is that leadership needs to be earned and you don't have to ask for permission to do it. it's not like a general who is given four stars and you have to listen to them. it's a profound example of really how many people realize that service is something, leadership is something that has to be earned with permission. that's the thing that i really
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struggle with an work on everyday. it's not an easy thing. it sounds obvious and clear but it's a tough thing to do. that is what i see that some of those traits that i read about in the book. maybe one more question. e. >> do we have a growth economy right now? younger generation creating jobs but what about economies that are shrinking and where our paternity's art is abundant least up in this neck of the woods the tech industry and opportunities aren't abundant for everyone. you go to races where opportunities aren't as about it and the purposes and higher on the hierarchy is surviving. >> what happens is the opposite. overall the u.s. right now is not an growth. people rotating their jobs and so much freelance work going on
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and it's interesting a lot of these folks who are out of work are actually going to find things to do that may not pay as well but they are starting to become more in touch with themselves and doing things that are more purposeful for them. they realize realized the rat race around money is there not a race that is available and they prioritize on purpose and find out what they are doing. i have found that some of the most depressed economies in the country often the most purpose happening and it does conflict a little bit. looking at maslow hierarchy you don't have purpose until you have these basic needs met that i think we are finding a lot of cases people are making purpose an incredible party and more propriety when things are unstable because they need that stability. i still struggle with how to reconcile those two things that i see so much purpose and often the most impoverished areas and this goes to your point.
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as i have moved up in my career meg and more money and stature i've had less and less purpose. i was at a d.c. event earlier and they were talking about how a lot of ceos and founders made their money and they become fishermen are they going to open a small business. the reality is they stop having purpose as a ceo with all that success. no research is preeminent but i would almost bet that purpose and income are inversely correlated. for me the first job i had out of college for the ones who were the richest and purpose because i had authentic relationships with people. i was doing actual actual work where i could see the results. i was encoding and doing design. i could immediately see the results whereas now's a ceo you don't see the results that way. it's all cerebral and it doesn't have that same relationship. i think it's really interesting and research is five or 10 years old. we are really at sort of the early days of the radical change
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in what we understand about work and about our lives around purpose. when the internet became commercialized we are going to see radical transformation. i think we can predict some of those changes but a lot of them we can't. i'm excited to play a small role in helping to accelerate the changes that are the most positive for us as human beings. with that, i think it took so much courage to run an independent bookstore in creative place for community come together to bring in purpose and help support authors that -- so thank you. [applause] 60 years. 60 years next year. that's just phenomenal. thank you all and i will be available to sign books up in front and thank you for having the courage to work in a purpose priorities. [applause]
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but first here is steve forbes discussing solutions to health care and poverty. [applause] >> ladies and gentlemen the author how capitalism will save us to discuss with harris rosen how capitalism today is saving us, steve forbes. [applause] >> thank you very much and thank you harris for coming to share what should be someday conventional wisdom instead of superior wisdom. that's a wonderful thing about free markets. it takes things that are rare and makes them commonplace where they are allowed to work. if you look around this country one of the two most troubled areas education and health care. where's the government most involved? education and health care. ask yourself why we have a health care crisis in this country collects is not the overall quality of health care
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and medical care in this country. overall it's the best in the world by far. we have the greatest longevity in the world by far when you look at the real numbers and not the fake ones the state has put out there. and a conventional answer is well, we have a health care crisis and a medical care crisis because people like me baby boomers are getting older and they want more medical care. prices keep going up in the system becomes unaffordable. we have to ask ourselves the basic question, why is demand for health care considered a crisis and a growing demand for as demand for anything else in the economy is considered a huge benefit? people want more apps and writers will be glad to help you. people want more hotel facilities. harris and others should be glad to help me out. we want more manufactures in detroit and elsewhere glad to be out so why does health care semacode disaster rather than a great opportunity.
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the answer is we don't have free markets and health care. so third party. the patient is not the customer and when that happens you get crazy things and because we have grown up with the system i don't realize how weird it is. if you you go do a doctor clinic or hospital and ask in advance what it costs you are going to get a very strange look. it means one of two things either you are uninsured or you are a lunatic. why would he want to know the price collects what's it to you? can you imagine going to lunch today in ordering a fancy bottle of wine and saying i don't care what it cost. let medicare sort the thing out. [laughter] so the system goes haywire. you take something even more basic than health care which is food. no food, no nothing. pilgrim took over agriculture because people had problems getting food they would be no obesity. they tried it in russia and china and it did not work very well. even though we have governmental
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involvement agriculture is allowed to produce the food and private companies processed the food. grocery stores and hotels convenience store supermarkets everyone is cells that could. if you have problems you have anything from food stamps to food banks to deal with it. we will turn what looks like a hopeless liability into the greatest wealth industry ever because health care is the most personal thing ever. and you see the beginnings of it. for example flu shots once upon a time if he wanted a flu shot yet to make an appointment the doctor and go to the office and get the flu shot. now you can get them everywhere. go to a gas station, fill her up give me a flu shot into the windshield. you see walking and the s&l square. walmart would do it if regulators allow them. the delivery of health care has been ossified one-size-fits-all instead of entrepreneurs figuring out how to do a better
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and we are on the house -- cusp of fantastic breakers from medical devices the other day saw one no bigger than a cell phone. put your fingers under it lines go up and down doing your ekg. it takes a matter of seconds. you are okay or you have a problem. that kind of technology is coming more and more. we had a cover story on cancer so free markets have been allowed to work. always turn scarcity into abundance. i mention cell phones. 30 years ago as big as a shoebox. 30 minute battery life costs $3995. today they -- there are 7.5 billion around the world almost giveaways depending verizon or at&t or what program you might have. i guarantee 30 years ago the government got involved saying everyone will have access -- al gore everyone will have access to cell phones that would be as big as a shoebox and cost $9995
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they would be a pillar in in a greedy cell phone makers. the key thing is in this whole health care debate is how in the world do we get the patient charge again lex there are a multitude ways to do it and there's no one-size-fits-all. i guarantee you as we break these barriers down we will. now what we have before and not the single-payer system but the key thing is as i mentioned earlier just don't get sick for the next three or four years until we sort this thing out unless you work for harris. but the key thing is habitation in charge. have the patient be the real customer and we will get the miracle of free markets which is turning scarcity into abundance not allocating resources but creating resources in ways people couldn't have imagined before. don't say health care is different. every industry come come every services different starting with food.
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we were creating this program are health care costs decline from $2700 per covered life to $750. why? because we focused laser light onto things, wellness and prevention. that's not rocket science. if you take good care of yourself, if you take good care of your loved ones provide them with all of the things that they need to stay healthy, they will
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stay out of the hospital. we do have hospitalist to work with us us in the hospital and as soon as our folks are ready to leave a leave and we do have our own home care division. we believe that a hospital is one of the worst places to be if you are sick. [laughter] [applause] and so we have created this entity we refer to as rosen care and the benefits are actually extraordinary. our associates, if you are single you pay $750 a year for health care. no deductible. if you were in the hospital you pay $1500 maximum. we did ... and your salary at $25 a week until you have paid that back. so it's $750 and then $1500. if you have a family it could be three, four, seven, nine, 10
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fixed at $2500 for the family per year coverage and $2500 for hospital care. that's what you pay. i pay the balance. interesting situation. we had a preemie born two years ago. she weighed in a little over a pound and a half. she was in the hospital for six months. she is perfectly well now, about three years old. the bill, $1,200,000. what did mom and dad pay? they paid $500. [applause] people wonder how can we afford to do something like back? well, how can you not afford to pay -- take good care of your associates. we love them dearly. if i close my eyes and i dream about health care for the united states of america i don't dream about obamacare.
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i don't dream about you can keep your doctor, you can keep your health insurance. that's not true. employers pay a fine of $2000. the dollars. average costs were covered life right now is $9300. if you have 1000 employees and there's a differential of the 2000 penalty or $7300 that $70 million. if you have a fiduciary responsibility to generate as much cash flow as you can for your company you not because you are evil or you don't want to take care of your associates but because you have an obligation to your shareholders. so when he said that he knew he was lying and how sad it is but are legitimate cost per covered life is about $4500. next from freedom fest is peter schiff on his book "the real crash" america's coming bankruptcy, how to save yourself and your country. ♪
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>> good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. peter schiff has a cd in your program. he has spoken at freedom fest many many times and you are here to listen to him, not me so i will be very brief. it's a very great pleasure for me to work with peter at euro pacific capital and i say it's a great pleasure for three main reasons. one, peter has the ability to see through the smoke and mirrors of government propaganda, of government cooked statistics and the supportive media of the establishment. so seeing through this smoke and mirrors peter gets it up what's really happening in the world in my opinion.
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secondly, peter has that great ability to articulate very complex issues and a simple word so that people can really understand them. and he also has the courage to tell the truth. in today's world telling the truth does take courage. now peter not only sees what's going on in my opinion but he offers real solutions both for you and me as investors and survivors and also for our country. so ladies and gentlemen it's a great pleasure and privilege for me to introduce to you the chief executive officer of euro pacific capital and great
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speaker mr. peter schiff. [applause] ♪ >> thanks everybody for coming. thanks john for introducing me. hopefully i can make up for my presentation. i'm losing some of my voice. i was out a little late here in las vegas. i'm not as young as i used to be. when i first started coming to freedom fest i was at the first one and it has really blossomed into a great event despite the fact that i think every year i come here we have less freedom which is an unfortunate situation. but also i think what i like to talk about is what we can do to try to preserve what freedom we have left with respect to our financial assets, our portfolios. i think many americans are going to find that not only are they
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losing their liberties, they are going to lose a lot of their wealth, especially if that wealth consists of u.s. dollar denominated debt instruments whether the treasury or municipal bonds, corporate bonds and even a real assets, u.s. stocks, u.s. real estate, are going to lose a significant real value. nominal value is harder to know what's going to happen to the nominal price of any given outset that it really i think is immaterial. what matters is the purchasing power that they assets convey. the reason i say i don't know the nominal is i don't know how much money janet yellen is going to rant. i believe it's going to be a lot. i believe it's going to be a record. i think she is going to eclipse the money printing of burning he
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and greenspan combined. so the best thing is for investors to be cognizant of what's going to happen and to make sure that your financial assets are invested in the appropriate manner to come through this. and i think even more importantly than maybe even preserving the wealth for yourself and for your family, but i do believe if we are going to try to be active personally in helping to repair, rebuild the country, helping to make sure that after this crisis that is coming, and i'm going to get to that, that it will be much worse in just about every respect than 2008.
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i mean it is going to be the worst economic period i think of states bar none including the great depression. he won't be as bad as the civil war or something like that but as far as an economic event, it's going to be bad. for investors, the majority of the investors, it's going to be very bad. but i think the only opportunity, you know the silver lining to that cloud is the opportunity to really get the country back into the right direction. >> the problem is all of these solutions to the problems that we have, and there are solutions, but they are not politically viable given the democratic state that we now unfortunately find ourselves living in. a lot of the safeguards that our founders put in place to protect
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us from democracy no longer exist and so unfortunately, economic policy is based on whatever the populace wants to support and unfortunately very few americans really even understand what needs to be done including a lot of members of congress. but people are not going to vote for the right thing. look at how many people are in favor of the minimum wage. that shows you the level of economic understanding even among experts, even among economists that are professors at our universities. no -- many have nobel prizes and they somehow believe the minimum wage is a good idea. so that is the level of understanding even among the brightest. how do you expect the average american voter who has been brainwashed and governing schools his entire life to understand anything. so they are not going to vote
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for real solutions. the politicians have no input this to try to deliver any kind of bad news to voters. they don't have any will to ask the voters to swallow any medicine that might carry the economy because it's going to taste bad. but i think a complete economic collapse which fortunately i think is coming, that might provide the motivation to finally do something. hope fully people in this room if you preserve your wealth will be able to be active in that movement, trying to get americans to understand that the source of the problems that they are going to be living through is not capitalism. it's not the free market. it's not greed or the evils of capitalism, unchecked capitalism. it's not because we didn't have enough government or we didn't have sufficient regulation to reign in the wild capitalists.
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the problems are all going to be and have been created by government and the things the government does supposedly to protect us. those are the very programs, the taxes, the regulations, the spending that is the source of the problem and we need people to be able to articulate that and work to motivate people to roll back all that government, to have a second american revolution. we reembrace all of the founding principles that we abandon over the years it's not going to be easy but it's going to be a lot easier to do with their people that have financial wealth and have the ability to fund candidates who have the right messages and organizations that are working towards those goals. we have passed out a bunch of index cards. if you don't have one let one of the brokers know. there are a a few brokers in the los angeles office of state
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capitol. we have six offices. make sure to fill one out so we have the ability to get ahold of you and talk about the strategies more individually. also if you get on my mailing list if you are not party on it put out newsletters, we put out a lot of information. i write, and john browne writes and we send e-mails of the commentaries that we write. also i talk if anybody listens to my daily radio show i'm doing a show now every weekday from 10:00 a.m. to noon or most weekdays unless i'm traveling or something. you can listen to shift radio.com. i also -- we have six offices. my asset management company which handles all of our separately managed accounts which we added four or five years ago so we are a
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broker-dealer and we are also an investment advisor. i recently moved my asset management company from california to puerto rico. a lot of people asked me about that and why did that. my marginal tax rate in california is better than 50%. my marginal tax rate in puerto rico as 4%. ford's a lot more than 50. if i will be at my booth if anybody has questions about that. i will be happy to talk to you. i haven't personally moved very yet. i know a lot of people who have. four of my employees that live there and they are managing our clients money just as effectively from san juan is they did new port beach. now we are not giving as much as the income to the government. we have to keep it. it's a very interesting place. and if you're really looking for freedom puerto rico is where you are going to find it. at least if you define freedom
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as the ability to keep what you are and because you can keep it. the capital gains tax is zero which is what the rate should be in a zero on dividends and on your earned income if you structure your business correctly you only obtain a 4% tax. that's it. no federal taxes at all just 4% to the government of the commonwealth of puerto rico. also we have some of my most recent book. how the economy grows and why it crashes. it's a great book. if you don't have the original art even if he do we have a few copies left. i'm doing a book signing at the later today. the bookstore here has my book, "the real crash" which is what i want to talk to about today. the real crash. people say what he talking about the rail crash? >> reason i wrote that book, "the real crash," it is because
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after my first game but came out crashproof, that book predicted the events of 2008 that we now refer to as the financial crisis of 2008. i wrote extensively in enough book about the housing bubble, why we had it, how government and the federal reserve had conspired to inflate it. how wall street went along for the ride. i wrote about how the housing market would collapse and that when it did it would be much worse than when the stock market bubble which was also a creature of government policy not the market, but i pointed out all the ways the housing market was so intertwined with the economy in the banking system read when the housing market collapse that would bring down the banks and will cause the bankruptcy of fannie mae and freddie mac and usher in the worst economic
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catastrophe since the great depression. i forecasted budget deficit will balloon to $4 trillion. we never had a deficit anywhere near that high. i said unemployment would be 10% and of course all this stuff happened. so people would say e you predicted it and he wrote this book crash proof and we have the crash and i have to tell people you know we haven't actually had the crash yet. that's not what my book was referring to. the title wasn't about that event. that event was part of my book but that event was more like the overture to the opera. so a lot of it still has to play out unfortunately. but when i wrote that book, what i laid out is my thesis for the economic collapse, i wrote okay so we are going to have the implosion of the housing market and if you want to see a good
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example of the type of foresight i have i spoke a lot about it at these freedom fest. go look at my mortgage banker's speech that i gave in 2006. it's on the internet. peter schiff mortgage bankers and interesting there were 3000 mortgage bankers in the audien audience. so these guys were at the heart of this crisis and during that presentation i spoke about a hedge fund that we had just started on prime mortgages and i explain how the market was going to implode and how much money could be made if you simply got into this fund and got short sub-prime. out of the 3000 people in attendance one called me up to open up an account. he was a very happy camper. i think he made a times are 10 times his money. i forgot how how much you made on that trade. these were people that were in the business. at least hedge yourself because
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most of you are going to be out of business very shortly so you might as well make a little money as your main job employers. but still they didn't want to prepare because people don't want to believe. but being forewarned his forearms. for the guy that got short sub-prime he was probably very glad that he came to that conference and heard me speak. you have got to do things. you can just listen to a talk. you have actually got to take action and do something in response to the warning that i'm giving. but i wrote enough book, i said as a result of this economic collapse as a result of the housing bubble and the unemployment and the collapsing real estate prices i said prices would drop 30 to 50% which at the time seemed impossible. nobody believed it could drop 1% let alone what i was saying.
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and i said in response to this, the government is going to try to stimulate the economy. they're going to pull out all the stops to briefly these bubbles. they are going to create a lot of money and try to get housing prices back up and try to get the stock market back up. they are going to try to get everybody borrowing and spending again and what i wrote is that was what was going to create the real crash. it was going to be the bursting of whatever bubble the government managed to briefly to get us out of that great recession. no the bus are proportionate to the bounds because the booms are where all the mistakes are made all the now investments as i refer to them so the bigger to to them the bigger the bus. this is the biggest boom of all. this is the biggest artificial boom ever created by the fed. they did it at a time where the
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economy was in the worst shape it's ever been. despite all the sunshine, you know all the rosy talk that you hear from economists, from wall street, from the president, the economy is not better. we haven't recovered from anything. we are the sickest we have ever been. we are just too drugged up on cheap money to understand the symptoms. but you know there are a lot of americans who are not, who feel the pain of this phony recovery. think about this. this is supposedly a recovery in the third cover is this bad imagine the recession. imagine how bad the next
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recession is going to be. look at where we are starting from. we are going into a recession if we are not already in one and we may well be. in fact i think we are if you would have a more accurate reporting of inflation with the government under-reported to such a degree that sometimes it's hard officially to get to the recession. the economic growth not there. they call it a jobless recovery. they are half right. it's jobless but it's not a recovery. that's why there are no jobs. people are leaving the labor force, earnings are collapsing. people are losing their full-time jobs and they're getting part-time jobs and people say hey this is great. we created 200,000 jobs. now, look beneath the numbers maybe we lost 500,000 full-time jobs and they got 700,000 part-time job so that's plus
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200,000 but is that good news? know. it's not good news. it's bad news but they don't report all the details. they just report the headlines or they report the unemployment rate is down that they don't report why. all the people have left the workforce so the real economy is imploding. that is why congress popularity is at a record low. if you remember leading up to the great recession and they call it the great recession. this is the worst recession we have had since the great depression, it started in december of 2007. i was doing television interviews in december of 2007 and early 2008 saying that a recession is coming and everybody was saying way, it's not going to happen. we were already in one. i just read this article this morning. economists don't see a recessi recession. they have never seen a recessi
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recession. or the fed. the fed is not predicting a recession. they have never predicted a recession, ever. every recession has been a surprise in effect. every recession has been a surprise to economists. they don't even know a recession when it's there so it's very possible that we are already in mind that if we are not the sin will be. and look where we are. normally when a recession starts the fed has jacked interest rates back up so it can cut them. but we are about to start this recession and rates have not risen risen. they're still at zero and of course they never had to bring them out low. every other recession that we have had the fed has been able to get us out of it without resorting to 0%, even the housing bubble that we inflated that burst in 2008. the fed inflated that with one percentage interest rates and they were only 1% for a couple of years in the fed started raising them. we have had zero for five years
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and they have an even race them to a quarter of a%. why is that? if this recovery is really five years old why are we still on -- and not only do we have 0% rates the fed is printing all this money money monetizing a list government debt. they say the economy is in good shape. why are they doing that? it's like if you know the doctrine that doctor those you you aren't excellent health that you are hooked up to a ventilator and you are eating. tube. can i get out of bed. [inaudible question] , knows you have to keep all that stuff there but there's nothing wrong with you. you're in good shape. obviously the economy is sick. why are interest rates zero? >> cassettes the most we can afford. we have so much debt in this country the government has much more debt now than it did in 2008. corporations have far more debt
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than they did and americans have it. they have no home equity have no home-equity anymore so i so i think americans at least on paper before the financial crisis, americans had home equity to offset a lot of the data now that does have debt so people say oh americans have a lot less debt but they also have a a lot less well. americans are broke. the housing market has recovered. no, it hasn't. homeownership is at a generational low. people can afford to buy homes. meanwhile rates are rising rather rapidly, five or 10% a year. why are oil prices going up? because speculators and hedge funds private equity funds are taking all the cheap money from the fed and buying up properties. the same thing with stocks. why are stock prices going up? companies are borrowing money and buying back their shares. their interest expense is at
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record lows. everybody's interest expense. the u.s. government is spending less on interest, national debt than we spent when ronald reagan was president. even though the debt back then was a tiny fraction of what it is today. so what would happen if interest rates went up at this time? well there would be a complete implosion. if interest rates went back to normal, 5%, the government wouldn't be able to pay the interest on the bonds that it has sold. they would have to default. the national debt were 20 trillion comets going close to 18. that is just the tip of the iceberg. not counting the big budget items and unfunded liabilities. you hear about the student loans is 1.2 trillion in student loans. the government guarantees all that dead but it's not part of the national debt. even though the students are good for the money, these guys
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spend six years majoring in sociology borrow $100,000, $150,000. they are not going to pay those loans back but the government doesn't count that as part of the debt. if the national debt was $20 trillion in interest rates are 5% of what's 5% of $20 trillion? i $000 billion a year. right now the government is spending about a quarter of th that, $250 billion a year on interest. so where would the government get the extra $750 billion a year? every year. there's no place to get it. we don't have that money. all but dead a short term now so it rolls over. what would happen to the housing market if interest rates went up? the only reason that any american can afford a house is the money is so cheap. if interest rates go up the housing market will implode again especially as all these levered up hedge funds have to dump all their real estate.
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this could be a bigger real estate collapse in the last time because when a homeowner was under water on his mortgage and you mortgage and needed the bank's permission to sell and a lot of times the banks had wanted to sell. they didn't want to foreclose the people to stay in their homes and they live there rent free. but when you have these private equity funds like blackstone when they decided they wanted to liquidate, take a 50% loss they will just low out of their properties. they don't need anyone's permission. a lot of these places are fake and anyway. so what's going to happen to the banks then. [inaudible question] was thanks that were too big to fail that were bailed out. now they are even bigger. so next time they will fail. remember the federal reserve is raising interest rates nobody can get bailed out. the only way that could be bailouts if the fed is easing. the fed has to be printing
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money. if the fed is raising interest rates and banks bailed nobody's there to bail them out. congress doesn't have the money. they have to get from the fed. if the fed is tightening they are taking money out of the banking system. so the banks fail and when the banks fail not only are the shareholders going to lose their money, not only are the bondholders going to lose their money but depositors will lose their money. so if we had an increase in interest rates, the banks would fail, the government would default on its debt. the whole economy would implode. that's why it isn't going to happen. that's why the federal reserve can talk all they want about raising interest rates in some unknown point in the future but they are never going to do it. i said this from the beginning. when the fed first did he read the first time they did and they said it was temporary. i said no it's not. they will do it again a sentence
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that ends. i said they will do it again and they did do it again. they had qe2. there are going to be more cute he's and rocky movies. it's never going to end. it just can't work. whenever the federal reserve does quantitative easing they worsen the problem they are trying to solve which means they need to do more. the more they do the more they have to do. the more drugs that they give to the economy the more drugs the economy needs to stay high. i said was like a monetary roach motel. once you start you can never ended. and every time the fed tried to ended in the past they had to come right back. they tried to take away the more pain, take away the heroin and they started to see the patients going into convulsions. we need more drugs as it if it was actually working. to think that the fed could stop this, that you could take away all of the artificial props to
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>> >> he does not want to limit that. he has to keep making excuses is why the plane can land and have been doing that for five years. now he turns over the held to janet yellen doesn't know any more about flying then he did. maybe less. but the example that i use use, this is a difficult trek. pulling the tablecloth out from under the table with his set of dishes. of the heart trick is to take said tablecloth and
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leaves the dishes. you can practice and it is possible but that is now with the fed has to do it has to yank the table out from under the cloth and leave the of cloth and dishes suspended in mid-air but for some reason everybody thinks that is what they can do nobody can figure this out or connect the dots we cannot afford higher interest rates we cannot afford to have the fed not in the bond market. how can refinance these massive deficits? the are of little bit lower now why? because the government is getting extra cash from fannie and freddie the money the fed is making now of the fannie and freddie they will have to give it back then some when the loans go into default they're also getting extra money because they keep finding that banks
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10 billion here or some there so that is money the government is getting back. metaphors we get some capital gains as people sell out social media stocks and of course, as we spend borrowed money is suspend sales so a lot of the revenue is a function of the phone the economy that the stimulus has helped to create but then it all goes away the tax revenue, fell whole thing would collapse which is why they will not do with but keep on talking when janet yellen for said or ben bernanke said i will raise interest rates but inflation is to i said no it will not happen if we ever get there they will move the goalposts and that is
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exactly what they did unemployment is 6.one. forget about raising rates and the cpi governments distorted version is up 2.1% year over year so we are above that goalpost also and not only have they not raise interest rates but will not commit to when maybe the end of next year or the year after that but the reason is they cannot raise them but what happens if they keep interest rates low forever? behalf to keep a low for ever what happens if you take drugs for ever? we'll happen is if you keep upping the dosage? the more of the government's drug the more it needs it builds up a tolerance so you need more and more but eventually if you keep taking the drug you will overdose and you will die.
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if you live by a quantitative easy you will die by quantitative easing it is the currency the dollar that collapses because for the government to keep this propped up to maintain the illusion they have to keep printing money. the fed has to keep printing money to buy at the bonds that everybody is selling. they're selling bonds to fund the deficit the water held by prime institutions by individuals are foreign central banks law all want out if the fed will print money indefinitely legislation will allow'' -- she rode away the value of the treasury's once people accept that that i will lose government pays to% per year
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i'm guaranteed to lose money once people realize that nobody will want to hold that no individuals or corporations or central banks. that means the fed to keep the sky rocketing prices down if the fed prints more money there is more inflation so the bonds are even riskier now people want to sell because inflation is higher. eventually you have destroyed the dollar but at some point the fed will have a decision it could still save the currency but it will probably lose a lot of value before it will even
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consider the unthinkable so maybe the dollar will lose 50 percent 70 percent of the value if it lost 70 percent in the 1970's and paul volcker did put and a stop to it but interest rates that 20 percent a and that stopped it. there were some steps to exchanges -- substantive changes not enough but to stop the bleeding not like he thought more than 20% interest rates would be fun. he knew it would be difficult but we obviously cannot survive it now we cannot even afford 5% i don't know if we can afford one%. but at some point when the
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dollar reduces the value that it will have to decide will we be germany or is zimbabwe or let the dollar go to use o? the only way to stop it is hit the brakes let interest rates skyrocket and sold down the portfolio of treasury ziv mortgage-backed securities to what buyers? massive debt liquidation and a huge implosion much bigger than any crisis from the floor because banks will fail and governments will default and a default on the promises to pay social security not the future recipient but currently the government will have to do that if it is worth less than what good is your social security check anyway? so that choice has to be made that day of reckoning
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is coming the fed is already in the box so world is waiting to raise interest rates and it will not happen in. because they can read while janet yellen says it is just noise but it will get noisier and the numbers will go higher. that box will be exposed and the world will figure it out made while we are hastening a road demise with all the foreign banks we artistic of the people we need to set up to but we don't even realize how all vulnerable we are. but what do you have to do about it? if the dollar will go down then duty to get off the ship. in told the old into a false
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sense the u.s. stock market went up the last couple of years of the idea what the fed did, it did not work. the only people who thought it worked are those who did not understand the disease in the first place those who did not know that it was coming those people did not know we had a housing public after it burst are the ones that told us up policies worked all the doctors who had no idea that patient was it in the federal reserve said everything is great and people pay attention the same people who said there was no problem everybody thinks jimmy allen was so smart. but she was not the only time she talked about the housing bubble was to dismiss it the only warning she mentioned this from other people and said they are wrong and she even said
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if i am wrong and housing prices go down and will not hurt the economy. that is what she said so who cares now? she obviously does not understand economics or money while she is the chairman of the federal reserve. [laughter] if she did she would be here. [applause] the dollar goes stale so the stock market goes up based on the of falls optimism and nothing has changed with the price of gold the stock market went down from 400 ounces of gold now it is like 10 / one?
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but now almost as 17,000 i take it goes down two / one it is a long-term market starting in 2000 so it is ongoing and did you go back to 2000 losing value to most commodities prices in many foreign currencies the dow is lower in 2014 and 2000. people think it is more valuable but it isn't and it will get a lot less valuable in the future. what are the investment strategies and water redoing? we are looking for the countries that are making the tough u.s. economic mistakes the fewest monetary mistakes and fiscal mistakes
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nobody does it perfectly unfortunately there are no economies that are getting it right it is just too is making the fewest mistakes? that is the best you can do in the world today but there are countries i believe that represent good opportunities. that is where reinvest. and we also look for value most stocks paid dividend yields five or eight or 9 percent so there's a real return to the shareholders for the singapore or the of hong kong dollars verses those that will not be inflated into oblivion. and more importantly when we buy companies we are cognizant of to the customers are. one of the problems with u.s. businesses is where are
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the americans getting the money to buy? when the credit stops the customers stop buying because they cannot afford to buy what they are buying now. when the dollar collapses people overlook this aspect. somebody else gets the purchasing power that we've used. with those factories that are producing stuff. and we by allies of the stuff but when the dollar goes down somebody will all
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bit as. i want to own companies whose customers will of the currency's that will kayhan value they have more buying power. it even the customers now don't have credit they have savings but americans have no savings and little savings we have a collapse of values and what what my customers to be americans but also live in the countries that have a sound monetary policy, more freedom and less government those countries are there. they're not as free as america used to be but more than america is.idyqzd,)÷z that is where you
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