number one, the midterms have come and gone and the clock has started taking on the 2016 race. there will never again be an electoral map and more importantly an electorate as favorable to the public -- republican party as 2014 and 2016 the demographics will come home to roost for republicans. if they continue on this trajectory i think they will have elected the last republican president for the foreseeable future. latino voters priorities must be reflected in republican policy positions.

number two, for the democrats, lean into not taking our community for granted the visible failure to use failure to stand with our community proved costly. they need to embrace latinos policies and priorities. number three, to the president, the election is over. act bold to bring relief to the millions facing deportation and family separation. every modern president has used this authority the hispanic community has waited too long and expect you to fill your promise. i am optimistic. we're headed into an election cycle where our community will have the power to decide who will be the next president of united states. we take their responsibilities seriously and we are very confident

that our community will act in the best interest of our country. thank you. [applause] >> now we will open in 4q and a. raise your hand. if you're watching on the lives stream there is a submit button to click on to know who the year a major question is asked and will also include our other panelist why don't we wait for the microphone so people can hear your question. >> craig and janet what is

the chances the president loses his spine and does not go forward with executive action? >> i don't know what they talk about the president needing a spine. [laughter] >> you go first senate you go first. [laughter] >> okay. i believe the president will act and i believe he has a strong foundation on which to act with legal authority has is the case has been made to there. but in the end the president understands in order to get a permanent solution with a legislative outcome. but i actually think the best way to get the legislative outcome is for the president to put a

marker down to let the republicans respond if they don't like what the president does because he thinks it is in the best interest of the country to move forward then with their majority they can now act and this issue is so important that action to take the administrative step will spur a permanent solution and accelerate a permanent solution and that is good for the country. so i believe the president will act it is in the best interest of the country and in our interest to get a permanent solution what better way to spur this bipartisan spirit and to give a chance to respond to let the republicans say we just disagree because if they do let them put their

best foot forward on immigration reform and see what they will do then we will get a great conversation and negotiation and hopefully an outcome for the presidency. >> sometimes it is asti one comprehensive immigration reform or executive action? but all of us believes deeply that the solution is a a legislative package of comprehensive immigration reform whether done in pieces or as of package to pass the senate but the key for us is the 11 million undocumented immigrants to live and work in america. does it include that war is a bunch of steps?

here is how i hear republicans with this issue. the nice ones a border security forced thether say no amnesty. both excuses not to deal with the 11 million. when the question becomes a lot of us were arrested people did hunger strikes were comprehensive immigration reform. having said that the fact is i don't believe for one minute the republicans will do anything and immigration reform. they just rejected and blocked the best opportunity in a generation to get it done on their terms with political credit before they were to their rights because of the scary roles coming from central america than the fear mongering with ebola. the party that lurches to

the right to demagogue the issue and block reform now will work with barack obama to give him a victory on his way out of town is ridiculous. so when i am asked as an advocate of comprehensive immigration reform over 30 years what should the president do my answer is he should take steps within his legal authority to protect as many people as possible as steppingstones feted says sequenced approach i wish they would have acted but here is the deal. republicans know if obama acts it will define the to parties for a generation. by reducing the struggle so

hard how to stop them? with design for democrats to be democrats to fight for people to be proud and not be afraid of a fight. i guess i feel strongly about this issue. [laughter] [applause] [speaking spanish]

[speaking spanish] still lead cal could the results of last night the interpreted as a mandate he should act this way? >> the bigger point is he needs to act in the best interest of the country. as you have heard passionately from frank they had the best chance to act earlier this year but his action does not prohibit in my view meet that test them out. that does not stop them from coming forward with a better response or reform if that is in the best interest of the country.

so they could have their legislative response to see that kind of thing gauge read happened before the president ends his term. that does not stop them from acting and if anything incentivizes to help us to exhilarate the debate of the engagement and negotiation in a bipartisan way. >> we will get some results then switch topics. >> in 2012 the thing that drove latino turnout and democratic share is it is extremely clear from all pulls that drove the latino share was the enthusiasm for

enacting the daca so there has been a decrease. so they should interpret the of losses and we have done this and previous years and it has worked so it is clear for demand in action. for the successive election cycles, give us your view on what needs to have been. >> first of all, the key for the affirmation and you provided for a latino

victory also with nclr. but i do know is our latino community is ready to understand the importance of the latino vote. the election of 2016 starts today. our community has indicated we're constantly voting for issues rather than political parties i believe the vote taken yesterday cents a very clear message we want action on issues that matter to our community with the economy, a health care and i

believe the fact it has lost the leadership victories in elections have consequences to have the responsibility to govern and to provide for the community for the issues that we have. i disagree with some of the comments i have heard from some of the media saying their vote was a vote to punish the administration. i hope it is not. in my opinion for immigration reform equal pay for women for minimum wage increases those of the issues the community once i believe the republican party has a great opportunity one

more time now they have the majority when we come for for our community? the vote yesterday was more out of frustration than a mandate for our community. [speaking spanish] [speaking spanish]

[speaking spanish]

>> dash we will take a question from online. >> the election results represent the community? >> the way that they've looked at this in many ways with 2014 a lot of the work we have been doing we have bet on digital radio in six different states they provide the margin of victory but every time had restarted this in 2012 so it comes out a stronger as a community.

but it is the habit of voting. it is a habit. more latinos voted and 2014 and 2010 that will continue especially once we start seeing some of relatively small population i stars carolina and wisconsin not only like colorado that has double digits but other states we will see more influence on state elections and all the way down the ballot. so that the latino population at large becoming a factor the and the key to the castle to transfer to the midterms is really with the latino community so that is the key maker.

>> questions from the media in the room? >> with executive action may have details he merging with the administration is considering maybe five or tenures gutierrez said tenures this morning with deferred action does that fall short what people are looking for from the president? >> yes. [laughter] >> those of us daca there was a tremendous success with helping real people and as a political movement, it

was based on the dream act that was defeated in a close vote in the lame-duck session 2010. with this was passed a bipartisan basis would be a good template was bipartisan support with very clear criteria who qualifies for legal status. the administration should be well aware vico's smollett bit as much grief from republicans evict those big if it goes big deal will get more blood from the latino community then if they go smalls of the wedding courage them to go big and bold by the end of the year to approve as many people as possible. >> another question from sunlight streams.

>> at least a couple the people were engaged during they get out and vote drive they were registering latinos but other people had bigger concerns is the smaller democratic support what happened between the democratic support and what they were hearing? and can you review if you think in some races they gained latino voters? >> i will answer those with a colorado example. for us, the result that showed 45 percent of latinos did not know senator udall

position on immigration is that a fault of the of voters or the campaign and the candidate? a lot of questions to be raised with this and no question for us as a latino community who cares about civic engagement will have to register more voters to make sure they're educated as they go to the polls but the campaigns have a responsibility. if they're not doing their part to educate the key voting constituencies, that is a failure on the candidates part more than anything else. there is a lot of responsibilities to be taken out there but what do the campaigns do and what does a

candidate due to engage the latino voting bloc in that state? >> that campaign manager with the afl-cio is a multi issue group that does a lot of can this scene would like to get your take what you're hearing from the latino voters. >> yes. but before i continue thanks for the information it is important so how we move forward in this country and also for all the excellent work as we will move for word for what they provide to the latino community. i just got back from miami working with the groups there and today was a tough day for those that were

their working. they worked very hard but people like myself perhaps over 30 years maybe a little more than that. [laughter] but it is not an easy fight it is long. like said deportations it is tough but that does not stop us because the only way out is to continue fighting. we have learned this fight depend on legislation we have to continue moving forward. the message of the most likely voters they want to see those they had elected cycle after cycle.

so with as a latino community they don't just do this as one candidate but they give our attention into the issues. people are informed about the different steps countries have taken with the issues they care about. and they were expressing fat. we think say understand that we need to do more to reach out and we also need to ask the candidates and those political parties they have to do a lot more for the community. so with that the afl-cio has

immigration as the important issue of the issue of equality and human rights and workers' rights. we will continue pushing immigration reform. we know not until we get legislation we will get there but executive action might have been we have said this for almost a year and a half and we will continue. the election will only reduce the position to continue work on this. not just because it is important to our members and workers but it is the right thing to do. but we know we have to continue pushing and we will not elect somebody because they have a better -- a

lecture or a relationship that those that will fight for the issues that we care about the message to the white house is we need you to act but every single door that i visit in florida first-generation sekhmet generation and the young voters say we allow parents to live in this country we all want the threat just because they go to work and that is out of latino defines. thank you. >> in colorado you had a huge operation out there. what do you hear? is that the final mobilizing issue? not that important?

>> basically immigration is one of the most important issues of the latino community we knocked on 70,000 doors and made 150,000 phone calls to the community. but i want to get back to the question what happened to what we would hear at the doors and what they did on election day. i agree. our job is to get people to the polls. i think we have done that. who wins the election? that is part of the responsibility of the elected officials so why should we vote for them or not? talking about colorado quite frankly mr. udall did not embrace our community and tell it was late in the game people said i will vote for senator udall because he is better than the other guy

but not because he understood the issues. i believe we need to look at the latino community vote we're part of the society and democracy and our participation has grown in bigger numbers so those elected officials if you want to vote for yourselves the then to talk to us. >> he does a lot of poor gone a lot of issues to motivate participation there is interesting news. could you help us out?

but they don't have the hotline that we were running monday and tuesday that we will receive from the call centers across the nation to provide information to you but keynoters and into have issues but they like to me that happy voice and to have historic gains. with the first latinos' secretary of state and california and with members of congress pretty of the gains with to latino governors that were

reelected so the way we see it is the higher-ups' though latinos can go and the chain of better for our community. when we start to see the numbers the voters that turned out we are encouraged by the fact they are elected to the office. . . they have not posted

anything anywhere, so i was curious to get your view on that. >> we have not seen them. the cholera exit polls are masked, at least they were as i when i left the hotel to come here. are they available now? and if not, can the journalists in the room please call edison research and find out why? >> this is an important point. there are a large number of latinos in colorado. they should be allowed to report those results out, and the fact that they have not reported sub group results for a state as important as cal ronald suggests that perhaps they don't have confidence in the results because they do not jibe with other things they have seen. their is a lot of polling discussion about colorado. we were weighing in on that in terms of methodology. we hope that they can learn from their mistakes, but as we pointed out in texas, we know that there are major inconsistency.

>> what do you see -- city leaders out there who to latinos not to vote in elections? does that help or hurt immigration reform and latinos. >> i have a feeling we will have consensus on this. [laughter] >> you wanted? >> well, i share the optimism that there is a new generation of candidates and officeholders to be merged out of this midterm election, but those of you who would tell you not to use your voice, not to vote are dead wrong, and i have negative feelings about the midterm elections because i feel as if our community, by not using his voice, has delegated the authority for our future to our group of people who clearly do not have our best interests at heart. and so by not voting, we have representatives now -- and i wish i was as optimistic as janet on this

issue, who i question whether they will take the action necessary to help us with the defining civil rights and human rights issue of our time, and i think that it is right to expect that this president will act boldly through executive action on immigration reform, but i do not think that you can lose sight of who your friends are and who your enemies are . [speaking in native tongue] and sell, by not voting -- >> know who you are. >> that's right. you know have a circle of friends elected to congress, elected to the senate who they're is a high likelihood do not have your best interest at heart, and that is the result of not voting for your own issues. for your own candid it's.

>> you know, i would just say, look, for us -- i mean, i can only speak for them. but we are a nonpartisan organization. we have said all along, we just want to grow the vote of our community. we wanted to be educated voters. at the end of the day they make that choice. for us it is not about supporting one party or the other but the best candid it's to have taken the best position on the issues of importance to the latino community. and for us that will continue to be your goal, and i think that if you look at the demographics and the future of this country, it is going to be important, it needs to be and is imperative for that to be an important part of any candidate running for national office and as we see the electoral map change in 2016 it is going to be an important opportunity for both democrats and

republicans to respond. >> i have to say this, i'm sorry. we have been working hard to get the latino community to yield political power. i think it is irresponsible to advise our community otherwise. there are already groups out there trying to stop us from voting by passing laws that are making it harder for us to participate, making laws that make it harder for us to go out and vote because, i mean, we don't get -- i just believe it is not in our best interest. the only way that we are going to be able to change this immigration issue is by having people that actually can do that, and that is only legislatively. if you do not elect people that can make those decisions, i think it is a disservice to our community and those of us who have been working. without political power we

are not going to gain immigration reform, and we are sick and tired of waiting and waiting. i can tell you that this year i have seen a lot of backup recipients and friends working hard to get the vote out. one of those said to me, when i got my backup car able to work, my mama look at me and says, son, i would like to have one of those cars in my hands. you know what, brother, he worked very hard to get the vote out because he wanted his car and once his mom to have one. >> yes, i think -- i don't know. i think one of the concerns i would have here is that it is a false choice. the false choice is you

either don't vote or vote for candidates were not taking care of your needs. their is a third choice, and the third choice is primary politics. that is that if you have candid it's running in the political party normally favor who is not taking your interest to heart, then primary them. you may not win, but simply the fear tends to make politicians do the right thing, and that is a good thing. latinos are not alone. there are other groups in the nation and in the dc environment you are struggling to give the party in which they are a majority participant to pay attention to them. coalesce, recruit candidates to run against incumbents. i mean, you can do that and move the party in your direction. so i agree with everything that folks say, absolutely, when it comes down to which, you have got to vote, but you have to vote more than

just the general election, when there is an opportunity to hold even politicians that climb to the underside accountable. >> excellent. >> any other questions in the room? do we have anybody? go-ahead. >> cnn exit polls had colorado latinos comprising 14 percent of the electorate, which is the same number of latino eligible voters. how accurate do you think this is? >> you know, the exit poll estimates of the election are just estimates, guesses. they, you know, do take into account the census data, they do take into account whether they are seeing more or less of different subgroups, but those are often revised. what gets posted on election night might look very different two weeks from now when the final votes are in. as our estimate parameters, not the actual exact number. we will have to wait for precinct level data.

the best thing you can do is look at precinct level data, how many votes were cast, did they come from majority latino communities are not. but we do not put a lot of stock in to those estimates. you really need to back them up with real data. >> we will bring this to a close. again, i want to go down the line. if you want to say one final , before we close, please do. if you want to pass, that is fine to put let's start with yanira merino. >> i think we will be saying the same thing. we need to get out there, continue to vote, make sure that we use the power of our vote to ensure that both parties know that we are watching them and that we wanted to take action on the issues that are affecting our community, primarily immigration reform. >> thank you. it -- [speaking in native tongue] >> i said earlier, every election have consequences.

i believe the republican party now has no excuse for to act in the best interest of our community and the country. if they do not like how the immigration reform is, the need to put forward some information, some work that we can do. secondly, and finally, i expect and hope that the president acts as quickly as possible because we expected for our community. >> i just want to make sure that i clarified that, you know, there is an opportunity here for both parties to engage the latino community and latino voters. and in my opening remarks somehow it was interpreted that latinos would never vote for republicans. i want to clarify the fact is that their policies have to reflect latino priorities is going into the future we're going to see the opportunity for them to grow constituency of latino

voters, and i think for us it is important to note that both parties have that opportunity, and they need to take it vantage of it. i especially want to reiterate how important it is for our community to understand that while we are going to have a unique role, i think, in the next presidential election, it is true that we have to understand our own power and the power of our politics and make sure that we are voting in each and every election because we can make a difference at every level. >> thank you. gary segura. >> with respect to the executive action question, there are two reasons presidents do things. one is whether or not it is good policy and the second is whether or not it is good politics. it is a joy when good policy and politics happen to overlap, and i think the president of the united states would be well served to remember the positive affects and negative effects

and actually do what the policy suggests and what the politics suggest is in the best interest of his administration and take aggressive executive action. >> thank you. matt barreto. >> i will leave you with one story i think is particularly relevant to highlight an hour election eve findings relating to latino policies and priorities, and that is that contrast across latino elections for someone like dick durbin who got the highest of any candidate we recorded yesterday, 81, 82 percent of the latino vote, someone who has been tirelessly fighting for the dream act, comprehensive immigration reform, health care expansion, other issues important to the latino community. brian sandoval did awful, have not established himself yet, but he invested money into english language

lerner's into the public-school system in nevada, signed eight driver's permit card and started to do some out reached. so latinos will reward you for that effort. this is a state where latinos voted 90 percent for harry reid in 2010 to come back four years later and provide 47 sent for sandoval. and there was a variation across all of the candid it's. you will be able to understand the vote. >> henry munoz. again, thank you for sponsoring this event as well as for being a leader in this effort on the election eve polling. henry. >> we need to leave ourselves. -- we need to lead ourselves this is a brown a shoot. those of you who would take away our voice, take away your vote, we need to say no this is a moment in our history where we need to realize we live in a country that is not fair, just, or

equal, and we need to harness our own power, not be afraid of it, and express it. >> thank you. randy borntrager. >> thank you. great work. you know, i think seascape sclerotic listen to tales you must be ashamed teeth -- you must be ashamed. we need to use votes to change the folks that are there. the vote in 2016 has that power. that think it is at the republicans barrel. >> terrific. last but certainly not least , yanira merino. >> this was important for that latinos, everybody. it is a clear message for our community. we will be with those who are voting consistently on issues important to us. a message to all of us who

are elected that they were elected and now have to act and act responsible and responsive to the community but is also a call for those already in office, for those who made promises. we are watching. we act accordingly to how we see people on issues that we care. a message for the white house, this is important. anyone who has dreams to be in the white house will have to listen to our community, work with us, and deliver on promises made to west. >> all right. thanks to all of our speakers. things to all of you joining us. thanks to all of you joining us on c-span, and that closes the event. thank you. [applause] [inaudible conversations]

>> tomorrow analysis of tuesday's midterm elections. pollsters and politicians will break down the winners and losers and look at what it means for the political agenda in congress. you can watch our live all day coverage here on c-span2 and online at c-span.org. >> here are just a few of the comments we recently received from our viewers. >> calling to comment on a debate i saw regarding the declaration of war and the war powers act.

i was quite interested to watch the legal debate, and it also demonstrated some of the inaccuracies of the neocon proposition that in the beginning of any war the president as the ultimate hearsay of the country and the country's ability to go to war. >> i would like to commend c-span2 for airing the information from the writers on grief and the military. it was excellent information gave a level of interaction and dynamic and nuance. and the reality, for instance, that posttraumatic stress disorder can't climb

up and can be resolved if you continue to try various interventions. >> i think american history tv on c-span is one of the best programs. i wish we could do it more than once a week. >> and continued to let us know about the programs you are watching. call us, e-mail us, or you can send us etui to. join the c-span conversation, like us on facebook, follow us on twitter. c-span2, providing live coverage of the u.s. senate floor proceedings and keep public policy events. and every weekend book tv, now for 15 years the only television network devoted to nonfiction books and

authors. c-span2, created by that cable industry and brought to you as a public service. like us on facebook and follow us on twitter. >> global crude-oil prices have fallen 25% since june and currently stand at around $80 per barrel. the wilson center hosted a discussion about falling oil prices and the effect on russia, venezuela, nigeria, and the oil-producing countries in the middle east. this is an hour-and-a-half. [inaudible conversations] >> if everyone will take their seats we will go ahead and get started. we want to welcome you to the woodrow wilson center. i am a public policy scholar here associated with the global europe program. let me wish you one and all a happy halloween. for those of you that are

new, let me give you a little background about the center itself. as you may know, woodrow wilson was the only president who had a ph.d. going on to beat president of princeton, and the congress decided against another statute or monument and created what they call it living memorial to president wilson were what we are charged with here is to bring together both sides of his life, policy analyst, a very prominent political scientist and his academic era together with people who are making or influencing policy here and around the country increasingly around the world. our president and ceo, former congresswoman jane harman, has really hone our mission, and she emphasizes that we are the nation's key non-partisan policy forum where we tackle global issues, and we do it through

independent research. we will have over the course of the year 150 people that come here to do some kind of policy research and we do it with a set of programs that naturally cover the world. you will see some of that here today. this morning we are focusing on political and economic impact of low oil prices. if it were 1973 or 1979 we might be talking about oil shortage or some spike in oil prices. today being halloween, we might speculate that this halloween dracula drank the oil. instead of oil prices -- but instead of oil prices have been falling. yogi berra, the widely quoted philosopher who starred with the new york yankees, often warned us it is hard to make predictions, especially about the future. you could certainly say that is true about oil prices as well.

the current prices certainly are surprising. the american automobile association now reports that the average price of a gallon of gasoline across the entire united states is $3. that is a nice treat for a lot of american drivers. and those who actually dare to think about the future, and goldman sachs is among them, are predicting at lower oil prices that may persist into 2016. this morning we will ask what these lower prices mean for a number of key oil producers. and to explore that question we have assembled quite an array of experts. and let me introduce them briefly. it acted to end at the far end. raise your hand, if you would. a public policy scholar here who is working on energy. he was formerly the council for international strategy

at chevron and chairman of the eurasia foundation. he has recently come out with a second edition of his energy security volume that is now available in paperback, and i promised him i would urge you all to buy a copy if you want to be up today on energy questions. he brings a world of corporate experience, public service, research, and extensive academic background where he served in some key posts at brown university. we will call on doctor raymond gilpin to give us a sense of what oil prices might mean for nigeria. he is currently the academic dean of the africa center for strategic studies at the national defense university. he previously served as the director of the center for sustainable economics at the u.s. as to the peace, academic chair and research director at the central bank

to sierra leone, among other major posts. in his recent essay, economic drivers of conflict, tackling energy infrastructure, vulnerability in violence- prone regions. a doctorate from cambridge university. following dr. raymond gilpin we will turn to risa grais-targow. am i saying that correctly? [laughter] she leads the eurasia group coverage on the venezuela with an expertise that ranges from macroeconomic policy to oil and other kind of commodities prices. she burned to the subject an extensive background that includes positions with the institute for international finance, the u.s. treasury, the albright stone bridge group and the dow jones news wire. this is quite a collection of achievements. she has contributed to a

publication, npr, bbc, bloomberg, and a whole host of others. she holds a master's degree from the johns hopkins school of advanced international studies. william pomeranz is the deputy director of the institute here at the wilson center. he will explore the impact of lower oil prices on the russian federation. he has a very deep background on russia and russian studies, practiced law in moscow for several years where he advised on everything from export controls to the u.s. foreign corrupt practices law. of course, there are no reports of corruption in moscow, so this must have been a light practice. he also served as a program officer for russia, ukraine, and belarus. he directs the rule of law

program and has written on russian law and a number of respected journals and holds not only a law degree but a ph.d. in history from the university of london. david ottaway is currently a senior scholar at the wilson center where he is an active part of the center's middle east program. he worked for 35 years as a foreign correspondent for the washington post. many of you will have read his columns over the years. in addition to the middle east, he spent time in southern europe and africa and went on to focus on national security and related questions. he is a prize-winning journalist, twice listed as a finalist for the pulitzer prize. he also builds on a distinguished academic background that includes a ph.d. in history from cambridge university. his most recent book, "the king's minister". i am reading it myself now, and i highly recommend it.

last but not least, to my immediate left i am delighted to welcome to greg ip, who will serve as today's moderator. after following his career on radio and television, the "wall street journal" and more recently the economist, many of us got to know him during his recent stint as a public policy adviser at the wilson center. he will have a book based upon that research coming out i would guess in december or early 2015. keep tune. we will let you know when that is coming. absolutely rare ability to speak economics and english at the same time. his 2010 book, the little book of economics how the economy works in the real world was described by "usa today" as a must read and economic literacy. thank you all for coming. have a wonderful halloween, and i will turn you over to an earlier treaty.

>> the floor is yours. >> thank you. i was here for two months earlier and i enjoyed meeting this dollars coming to events like this, and it is a pleasure to be back once again taking part in a great debate to. the decline in the price of oil, a few thoughts, preoccupying a lot of us to cover the global economy. we used to think of falling oil prices as an unadulterated positive. the picture has gotten complicated recently because the united states is not a major producer of oil. in some rich countries they are now so worried about inflation being too low that the decline in the price of oil is a mixed blessing. just this morning the bank of japan surprised the market by announcing a new quantitative easing monetary policy partly driven by concerns that the decline in the price of oil is making

it harder for japan to escape deflation. and finally, there are countries that are exporters of oil, and those will be that the focus of our discussions today, countries that rely heavily on the export of hydrocarbons. it will be a great concern to them economically and politically. we have a terrific said the panelists to discuss these implications. we will get started with jan kalicki on the far left who will talk for five minutes about the global overview of what is going on. >> thank you very much. it is a pleasure to be here. given the unique strengths we decided to pursue the focus on energy policy and launched last july a bimonthly regional and global energy series. the next one on the north american energy security renaissance which will be next thursday, november november 6th. i think it will be an interesting topic and

discussion from 10:30 a.m. until 12 noon. today's topic, low oil prices, is especially timely. if we maintain $80 per barrel or less there will likely be the equivalent of another economic stimulus. consumers and it will put additional pressure on producers. of course, prolonged low prices are a hypothesis that will certainly -- we have learned from history what goes down can also come up. and the long term on questions like oil prices. in helping this hypothesis, often oil prices go on for some time at least, a few words about revenue, growth, industry, and the potential opportunities. first, revenues. most oil producers have come to depend on oil prices of $100 per barrel or more. a price drop of 20-

20-25 percent will surely put them in a squeeze, and the issues will be flexibility, reserves, and the duration of the price drop. technocratic rulers. of course we know there is no corruption in places like russia, but there is this challenge, and we can't expect these rulers to do all that they can to presumes -- preserved themselves at the expense of the population. second, economic growth. as the imf reminds us, most of the world faces at best anemic growth and dampen demand, but china, the world's biggest energy consumer is not only adopting a large stimulus which will increase demand. a similar it stimulus is underway in the gulf states which are big consumers and

envy you, as we heard earlier. this increased demand will tend to drive oil prices up again in 12-18 months. third, the energy industry. this has generated overall 2 million more jobs in the u.s. in 2008. oil production has jumped 80%, much due to fracking shale, but if we go below $80 per barrel we will likely see a sharp slowdown of the shale business which depends upon high investment to drill more and more wells which have a high decline rate. finally, the opportunities. since the u.s. and other consumers are increasingly producers, the opportunities are mixed. personally, i would prefer to see a steady price stay in the $80 per barrel range

rather than the gyrations of the past. in a domestic context i favor a gas price floor as has been suggested in the past. say if we had at a floor of around 25-cent -- $3.25 per gallon with proceeds going into an energy trust, for a sample to upgrade air power transmission system in the u.s. back to the foreign context, later this month particularly the saudis are the only ones with 2-3000000-barrel capacity. i think this is an opportunity to discuss a price and which they have proposed in the past. the other general point i would make is that timing is critical. we need to move quickly to exert the leverage of high production and low prices. iran is a case in point. russia is a much harder nut to crack.

much more on their regional and country perspective, and i think that we should not assume that low oil prices are here to stay, but we can try to take a advantage of our current star position for our economy and foreign policy and that of our partners. thank you. >> thank you very much. we will hear from raymond gilpin. >> thank you very much. it is a pleasure to be here. africa has 54 oil countries. it would take me a while to go through all of them, so i will choose one, nigeria. nigeria is the world's tenth most important oil-producing in value terms, most people view of nigeria as a resource rich country. i see it more as a research driven country because you look at oil in nigeria per-capita and it does not even make the top 20.

resources driven because of oil revenues and oil investment drive not just the oil, but the nonmoral economy. what has been happening lately in terms of falling oil prices has a lot of implications domestically and with ramifications globally, but i will talk briefly about three issues. a first would be investment and the fiscal challenges and then the political, economic challenges. and from an investment perspective we all know that while nigeria has vast reserves, it has been awhile since they invested in the infrastructure. lagged significantly largely because of the cost. you will see a reluctance of investment to flow and to nigeria to do them much

needed upgrade to the infrastructure and also to have new exploration because a lot of the wells, particularly on land, our past peak. also in terms of trade we are seeing in 200846% of all nigerian exports came to the united states. and now it is probably tending toward a single digits. what that means is that there has to be significant rita version from the nigerian side, which in many cases would be more costly for nigeria has margins will be slimmer as declining oil prices and begins to hurt. fiscally what is alleged to be the application -- and here is where you see the narrative. domestic budgeting in

nigeria is a little complicated because nigeria has 78 a barrel currently, so the direct impact if it stays where it is is going to be in the immediate term. what it will hurt is the excess crude accounts and international reserves. over the last few years nigeria has been quite an impressive job of keeping its international reserves at about six months of import equivalent. if this continues it will be drawn down significantly. funds used to be at about 9 billion u.s. dollars, and now it is 3 billion dropping. what this means, pressure is being exerted on the currency. it has been the anchor for a

lot of nigeria's recent economic progress, including its leapfrog in south africa , the largest economy on the continent. political economy, roughly between 20,300,000 barrels of oil per day are lost in nigeria because of various shades of theft. and what that means is that, it is a lucrative business partly because the margins are so wide. with falling oil prices you start to wonder what is going to happen along the supply chain from the pumps to exports. are we going to see violence competition between groups? among actors? will we see the consolidation? in 2012 we did a study of illicit "extraction in three

-- illicit oil extraction in three communities. and what we noticed is that you have highly organized and politically connected groups that are responsible for this extraction. so with this reduction and elections next year and the fact that if you eyeball violence in nigeria oil-producing regions overtime and superimpose regional political events like elections, you notice spikes that correlate. are we going to see greater instability? competing for a decreasing share of the pie. we don't know, but it depends upon how the local

political economy reconfigure its. one more thing about the political economy question is that, while nigeria has made some improvement on the federal level, at the state and local, government level, you still have a lot of -- a lot more growing corruption at the local level because the oversight mechanisms are in place, and it is becoming as at the federal level. and as nigeria moves toward what everyone knows is going to be a very challenging election cycle, are we going to see in trauma and interstate conflict and violence? some 170 million nigerians on the planet, give or take a few. instability in nigeria would

not only impact the oil markets, over 3 billion barrels of oil per day but could cause regional instability, which could have international implications, as we are seeing in the northeast. and so from the investment side, the fiscal side, and the political economy side coming it is not the usual questions and the usual issues. it is a more complicated makes. and the confluence of this falling global oil prices and the pending elections in 2015 pose a pretty daunting challenge. >> thank you very much. next we will hear from risa grais-targow who will talk about venezuela.

>> thanks, greg. and thanks to the wilson center for the invitation to be here today. as many as you know, the oil prices make or break for venezuela in particular when we think about countries in latin america and countries globally that are oil producers. oil represents 96% of venezuelan exports and critically oil export revenue is the main source of dollars for a country that is highly dependent upon basic imported goods, which has become even more important over the past several years has not oil sector activity has declined at the same time, economic distortions, policy distortions such as foreign-exchange control have contributed to us could scarcity which has had significant political ramifications. the president who assumed office in the spring of 2013 has seen his popularity fall steadily from 55% in april of 2013 to around 30% in

september. and respondents' lists goods scarcity resulting from lower levels of imports as their top concern along with inflation and security challenges. as some of you know, he came to office in a weak position having been named the successor, but he inherited an economy in desperate need of an adjustment following the pre-election spending spree in 2012. however, his own weakness has prevented him from undertaking any meaningful reform. incurring any additional political cost. we have not seen the fiscal adjustment that needed to take place, the foreign exchange adjustment, and any sort of revisiting of some of these problematic policies such as price and foreign exchange control. the policy where state-owned oil company continues to be

the government's main financing on social programs and has been unable to meet its own investment commitments. today what we have seen is hire oral prices have offset the production declines and eliminated the government urgency in addressing some of the issues in the rural sector. oil production has declined steadily over the last decade from about three and a half million barrels per day and in the late 1990's to a half million barrels per day currently. we have seen a stabilization and production but, again, at much lower levels than in the past. critically the government is continuing to fall short of production goals for the future. however, the government is now in a bit of an inflection point. the economy is rapidly deteriorating. set to contract by three or 4 percent this year.

inflation is in the low 60's and only going to rise. increasing good scarcity is obviously eating into the government level of support, and now worrell prices are letting even more political uncertainty. as usual we have seen today is some of the protests against the government the war erupted earlier this year have been limited to the opposition. so far we have not seen people protesting the difficult economic situation and with the military fully vested in his regime's survival, we have not seen any real material threat to the ability to maintain power. however, i would say that the oral price here is critical. and if the government does have much lower levels of export revenue with which to import basic goods, it could accelerate the risk of a

political crisis and be the kind of catalyst for the base to say enough is enough and take to the streets and really demand some sort of political change. i think we are still not quite there yet. right now venezuelas oil prices around $76 per barrel. i think they can manage with anything between 80, maybe even pushing down to 75. the average price for the year is still around 94. they still have some room to maneuver, and i do not see the political crisis as being just around the corner our review internally is oral prices will recover somewhat either late this year or or early next year, and so we could get into an equilibrium where the government is able to limp along with oil prices around 80, as i mentioned. however, if we are wrong

about our assumptions and we really do see a precipitous and sustained decline in oil prices, think that only accelerates the risk of the political crisis i was talking about and threatens the government's ability to continue to service its debt and meet its commercial debt service internally. i see this as a potential catalyst for a political crisis and even regime change. >> thank you very much. and we will hear from william pomeranz. >> the situation in russia is similar to those in nigeria and venezuela. things are not looking rosy in the short term. as for sure. the obvious consequence of the drop of oil is a loss of revenue. almost 50 percent of the russian budget comes from oil revenue, and that has obviously decreased. that means less money for a variety of programs put forward by president putin.

his increase in the military budget is threatened. he will not have as much money to fulfil his various promises that he made in terms of increasing social services during the 2012 presidential elections, and he will not have as much money for premium, which is already coming in at between ten and $15 billion growing. revenue is a problem which leads to increased demand and request on the substantial reserves that russia has. russia did in to this crisis with almost half a trillion dollars in the bank. the rainy day fund, but it is officially raining right now in russia, and the money is going out. indeed, over the last six months 13% -- 14% of these reserve funds have already been spent, and demand is only increasing. with increased pressure on the reserves it means they do not have as much money to help the currency.

the ruble has tumbled more than 20 percent since the beginning of this year. at various times the russian government has been spending up to $2 billion a day to support. that has not worked. today there was a substantial increase on interest rates, and we will have to see whether that stabilizes. essentially the lack of revenue and support has a knock on effect for inflation and the purchasing power of your average russian citizen. the second major problem is that the russian budget is already out of whack. envy minister of finance propose in its 2015 and 2017 budget two weeks ago and announced almost immediately that it was obsolete because it was based on the price of $100 per barrel of oil. he is now thinking of a 10 percent cut across the board which is a substantial cut in the russian budget, and unfortunately of russian

media has not prepared anyone for such cuts. that is lemming. the third problem that has been raised by some other panelists is the impact on the energy industry. again, in conjunction with the sanctions, the fall in the price of oil has had a devastating short-term impact on russia's energy producers. they were engaged in various joint ventures in the arctic which are now off the table because of u.s. sanctions. the oral companies in russia cannot get western financing, again not possible because of oil sanctions, the sanction as a result of the crimea crisis. so there is only one place to turn, the russian government. they have asked for $50 billion, which is a huge amount of money, almost 10 percent -- a significant amount of the available

reserves. again, there are other people lining up as well. oil companies and banks are making significant demands on the russian treasury. so, the drop in the price of oil has really begun to impinge on the russian government and its ability to carry out its various programs. the last point i want to mention is the broader political and social impact of these developments. obviously putin has not been swayed in the last six months by economic arguments he has proceeded to do what he wants to from a geostrategic standpoint and has not been concerned about the economic consequences. as a result, i think he has certain advantages going into this crisis, high popularity, no real political opposition, and help that maybe things will change and that the price will go back out. well, i think this is a

little bit different for putin. as part of his return to power he has made short work gone on his way to undermine all the intermediary institutions that could give him cover for this crisis, the parliament, the prime minister and so forth. as a result if, indeed, this crisis hits badly for russia, there are no intermediary institutions to abhor this crisis, and the finger of blame will eventually be pointed all the way up to putin, directly to a putin. his instincts most likely are to double down rather than compromise, but that will cause various problems for putin as well. the final point i will briefly mention is really the russian people. they're not ones to take to the street. they are patient, patriotic, and also are highly reliant on the stage for their salaries and pensions. so we have not as yet really seen a dramatic political

response to this drop in oil revenue, but nevertheless, this crisis, in many ways, is different from other crises. there is no enemy at the gates as in world war ii, and there is no broader ideological crisis, although putin tries to create one. this is a self-made crisis that has resulted in conjunction with his actions in crimea. and when you look at the legislation that putin has been passing, a law which would allow the russian government to compensate oligarchs who have villas in italy. this reflects the mentality of the ruling elite going into this crisis. and i think that they assume that they can rely upon the patients of the russian people. that is not necessarily inexhaustible. >> thank you very much. david.

>> we will talk about the petropower, as the title of today's session, and what saudi arabia appears to be up to as we head toward a meeting of the opec 12 on november 207th when the issue of whether opec will reduce its overall production and therefore put the price back up or not. the main accusation against saudi arabia is that it is really out to force down the prices, to protect itself against the oil shale revolution and maintain its own market share in the midst of a -- the saudis are well-positioned to take this battle on. they are long considered the swing producer in the world

because they have a capacity to produce 12 and a half million barrels per day. right now they are producing about nine and a half million barrels. so they can go up if there is a shortage somewhere, and they can go down very easily and there is another reason they are in good position to play a key role in this struggle over prices. and that is because it has huge reserves. it was already mentioned, $750 billion, a number -- the third largest after china and japan, and compared to aids -- the size of its budget which was about $228 billion this year, it has enough foreign reserves to cover all of the government spending if it

did not get 1 penny from oil for the next three years. most people think that the break-even point, the price it means in order to cover the budget is somewhere around $85 per barrel, but some estimates put it at 93 or $97 per barrel. it really depends upon the level of spending, which they are already degreasing after two or three years of very high increases to deal with social problems as a result of the arab springer. now, what we noticed in the last few months is a sharp change in this saudi attitude about what is an acceptable oil price. in may the oil minister was suggesting $100 was a fair price for everyone.

in june the price went up to $115. end of since then in august and september the saudis have suggested that $80 per barrel, which was already mentioned, is good for them. acceptable for opec. now, what is going on behind all of this? what is happening immediately today? what is going on? and what strikes me is, there is this enormous scramble among oil producers for its share of the chinese market, and china has started going around the world and buying oil at the lowest price that they can find. this is affecting sales to saudi arabia, imports from

saudi arabia. iran, its exports to china are down because the chinese are just going around the world and buying up while where they can find it. and to my amazement, columbia has become a major exporter of oil to china at a price well below what the saudis sell it to china for. and colombia's exports from the last six months have gone zooming, 60 percent more to china because they are selling oil for $94 to china and the saudis are selling for $102. so there is -- the termination of producers -- and is not just columbia.

iraq started this at the beginning of the year by offering discount prices, and kuwait followed. the saudis cut their oral prices october 1 bionic a dollar to everybody around the world. so this competition over price of world is about to come to a head with this meeting in opec. now, the saudis, what is the effective end? don't have too much time here to talk about iran and iraq. ..

>> >> to make exceptions because the economic situation is getting difficult. headed is one defect. with iraq is in real trouble but there are so many other factors other them the oil

price war that is going on it is hard to tell how much of the impact it will have. they have kurdistan in in the north exporting separately from the central government so they're losing income from that. but nobody knows if the islamic state will affect oil exports so far it has not. that is quite good. but if the fighting goes further south it could affect them substantially. so there are factors in the price war but the most interesting issue is how it will impact with the

negotiations. >> i would like to explore the implications of the price of oil and how does this affect of those that have been indulged did recently? and more globally if this strengthens our weakens the united states in the gulf. talking back in 1985. but it also affects the ukraine but it will have an impact over time and the agreement that was made yesterday that you could argue over natural-gas was the result of this economic

downturn in russia. this is the desperate need of hard currency deal the way to maintain butted for words that on to eastern europe. so there was pressure on russia to come to some agreement on gas a.m. that is in light of the ongoing energy crisis. in terms of how russia backs going forward the price will be one variable. with that ability to maintain sanctions and in that instance the you maintains the sanctions and will reconsider its march.

although again to recognize the upcoming election it goes on a lot of different directions but if they were weakened with european countries that are advocating for a lessening those sanctions so if there is the change to the sanctions policy who would have succeeded with the divided and conquered strategy, there is a lot of different variables. >> what about venezuela under chavez because it uses resources? how does that declined the price of oil influence the

projection in the neighborhood? >> greasy venezuela is starting to scale back the petro diplomacy program and other events in the region. with argentina and paraguay reseed the program where the government gets a whale at high a concession to countries in central america and the caribbean three california 20% reduction with the export members toward cuba that there down almost 40 percent of the last two years of lower oil prices just accelerates then heated to scale back these

programs have that has significant ramifications especially cuba but others like the dominican republic to make the nicaragua. it is an interesting opportunity to invest where venezuela has been dominant in the past. >> talk about the ongoing insurgency of boko haram. >> nigeria the recent forum we had a lot of talk about regional anchors on the continent with the peacekeeping perspective in the 1990's to the african countries this -- to be easier and better for nigeria to deploy a and a

lot of the financial burdens of the job of oil prices is sustained could be effected in nigeria could be that to do so. but it has a growing middle-class it important market for computer goods and services that nigerian banks syndicated across africa would undermine the ability of other countries. what does that mean in the south?

it is difficult to say right now but a lot of people seem to believe there is a connection between the scale of order and those into nigeria its and the funding of the groups that perpetrate the violence. should receive the conflagration for a dwindling resources on the nigerian army to address a lot of these challenges the worst-case scenario of insecurity that we see to enabled the government and the partners to focus on that you it could go either

way. from u.s. policy perspective and it is important to understand the dynamics now with the influences from the spoilers to understand into makos needed adjustments that nigeria needs to make systemic talking about the situation in saudi arabia and iran but what about the price driven by a though larger revelry to stabilize the price? >> that is the good question. and in the mid-80s helped to sink the soviet union to

drive the price is way down. had actually been as much more to do with the rivalry of market share and the impact on russia was secondary as collateral damage as a reason for doing it but it has quieted impact of the soviet union. the with this incredible rivalry i think this study may be a concern for the position that has the ability to control the price maker or the price breaker.

and the determination to maintain up key hold in the oil market. with the competition, even from their own allies and iraq and kuwait. resawed this cahow opec struggle in '80s so it has more to do with saudi arabia and determined to with us china market so more marketshare that it does politics simic this is a secondary benefit.

>> but before i do that get your questions as read a. society of how the drop makes life harder and of course, with nigeria this is an event that made the united states stronger or weaker or other nuclear? >> this is a continuing challenge with the dismal agility of the political process and it is so focused on the threats that we face. but there is an opportunity to look at the energy diplomacy.

and then you cannot control a market like this. but to try to move things in that direction with energy pricing. if you have swings they benefit especially given the fact producers are consumers to look back to keep our eye of the ball. into 95 actually that is wonderful but i would be a much more reassured it is

beyond reach it is unconscionable after which they established the energy security trust which goes into badly needed infrastructure in the transmission lines. they are in terrible shape. we have all this footage but this is the time we have the a vintage to show leadership whether here in the united states or overseas. we have to get in the mine said to be proactive instead of reactive. >> now let's get some questions.

>> i am from the foreign service institute. with that continuing to deteriorate what do you mean by that? with the military coup? in the other question with the pullback loss so mentioned with the u.s. engaged in that part of the world. what part of that specifically? >> talk about a coordinated

military coup is difficult to foresee that the military is already in power and since they came into office have been increasing the role to help insure his survival. with transition scenarios that is why it has to come from the voter base. at which point to the military would not be going to buy the government's. but that also means there are different factious did of military. so thinking about that transition scenario there is a possibility where certain parts of the military side with the figures of the opposition.

but any transition scenario would probably be one that is messy if you think of any scenario. but one area alluded to with limited bandwidth right now with foreign policy but one area where the u.s. can work with member countries have been to move away from dependency they have cheaper oil coming from venezuela. in the environment where they think about cheaper alternatives like coal and gas at the u.s. companies especially those in the power sector can play a role to help these countries move and a different direction

that as crises some cooperation. >> my name is thomas. recently an interesting documentary has come up. and they claim the outcome is the resistance of the fuels to have been important impact on bio based fuels. have you see this documentary and what is your intent - - opinion? >> i am not a technical

expert certainly but i will tell you what i have heard the proposition it is the other industry that doesn't like the idea to have though warranties put to the test so i think that to the idea to have that requirement to use food for gas is absolutely absurd. we need food security as much as energy security. but everything we can do to

participate to make sure we don't get into trouble. >> ion nine expert but putin is a very outspoken opponent from fracking. with a strong environmental conscience. >> i am an independent investor. what is your opinion of the affect the lower prices might have to develop a relationship between russia and china? with the energy relationship >> obviously russia like other countries use it to

explore and has signed various arenas to increase delivery of oil and gas to china. it sees that as the market as part of a broader strategy. but the list in the short term is not finding new partners but in many ways since russian financing did increase of possibility that the crisis continues over a longer period of time than they have to consider the farm policy consequences to be so indebted to the chinese. >> but the chinese of course, do not feel required to except higher gas prices

so the russians have the competition as far as supply choose china is concerned. >> it was not quite as good of a deal. but to not talking about gas prices and we see this for a long time. good deal of the century that doesn't include the price.

>> but the question is with the unconventional? how long does it take for that industry really to be heard to and how well capitalized sarah day to ride out the prices? >> that is a good question. part of the answer is industry started developing but the independents started to move this. but as you can see to expand

the horizons but the capitalization is much higher. if you have a situation of the returns that are predicated at $80 plus you can see those that it is into another position are much more exposed. if there in the field for a very good reason. they need to make sure they're still active to raise certain extent. as we said before much of

this is private the based. with the $80 price point. >> with a lot of the african countries with the south-west africa in the great lakes region there is a lot of prospective going and most of these countries have already started to anticipate the gains that is all predicated from e85. what we have seen from a number of african countries that the small independents work than the government is left high and dry.

so you have the established old countries but then you have a lot of other countries and that is problematic. >> the speaker from nigeria? you made a reference to the drying up in the united states the fact the u.s. used to be the number one nation of exports. to use the a possible shift of downgraded political revisions as a result of the

major economic shift? both president bush, jr. and clinton before him had a great relation with the capacities. we have not seen nigeria with boko haram. >> that is a complex question. the reduction of the nigerian exports in the united states is a function of foreign policy not the

forum policy decision but that the bad thing the downside for nigeria is quality and the type that is exported is very close to this shale oil so there is a substitution effect taking place. but it does have however to diversify because it is not so easy to enter the market but it has diversified through the neighborhood. the u.s. nigerian relations may be hurt by this but i don't think so. there will be other things they could collaborate upon.

there is a hour africana initiative that is very important with the downstream issue. also the new approach to peacekeeping there are a number of public things that they could continue to local elaborate on. had nothing get is a reduction of the share of the exports is a foreign policy driver. >> i with united states of africa the first it took on the debt and a note that countries are facing problems and in this case

but it would be shredded. [laughter] >> what about right here? >> another venezuela question. to parts. how many quarters worth of debt service if prices stay in the '80s? the tickets to a crisis proportion will they cut more or domestic fuel subsidies? >> to assume they maintain those exports then to a cyclical adjustment they will have to devalue the next few months they can and service their debt in 2015 and