then you had to u.n. security council resolutions that one specifically focused on ransom payments and the other in the context of foreign fighter terrace not paying ransom to terrorists. that is a very significant declaration of adherence to a no ransom policy. ..

as committed to this policy as certainly we are and i would note the british are and have long adhered to in practice. >> i'm afraid that's all the time we have. >> thank you so much.

i am just calling to tell you how much i enjoy the q-and-a at 5:00 on sunday on the west coast everything stops. i turn off my phone and get my cup of coffee and it's the most enjoyable hour on television. >> i enjoyed listening to him and the comments that were done today. he was accurate and he was on point. he wasn't using his own personal innuendo and i greatly enjoyed it and i hope you have more guests like that i aop works right on target this morning. >> i'm calling to say that like many people c-span is wonderful but to the criticisms i almost

have none. the reason i almost have none is i think you do a term in this job of showing just about every side of every thing in the way people look at things in dc and elsewhere. i take my hat off to you. thank you very much. >> call (202)626-7400, e-mail comments@c-span.org or c-span hash tag comment area to join the conversation, like us on facebook and follow us on twitter. >> christopher murphy the chair of the subcommittee on european affairs as the outlines of the trip to the balkans the senator speaks about the importance of u.s. engagement in the region as well as russia's influence, tensions and an appointment by the johns hopkins school of advanced international studies. it's about an hour.

>> the school of advanced international studies we are honored today to host a senator chris murphy the united states senator for connecticut as a keynote speaker here. senator murphy returned from a visit to the balkans where he exhibited exhibited cosa bochum of serbia, croatia, albania and montenegro. today he will share his impressions of the business with us and by the united states needs to reengage in this important region. his remarks come at a critical time for the balkans with a

breakup of yugoslavia. at the same time countries like serbia and albania hope to broaden the reach of all scope by seeking membership in the european union and the added before an interest such as russia and money and the flow of the foreign fighters from the balkans to the middle east into the region whose strategic importance in the geopolitical position is in flux. as a member of the foreign relations committee and past member of the house foreign affairs committee senator murphy knows all of these issues very well. senator murphy served in the u.s. house of representatives

eight years in the connecticut general assembly. finally i would like to thank the center for transatlantic relations and with that i would like to return the floor to the senator. [applause] thank you very much. for hosting me here today thank you for joining us here today and i know that washington's focus in four days away it's wonderful to see such a nice turnout here to talk about a subject i know the center as an institution spent an enormous amount of time thinking about

not just the course of the last 20 years but leading the conversation leaving the conversation on how we reinvest in the balkans over the course of the last year or so. the scottish football player once said that some people think football is a matter of life and death. he said i assure you it is much more important than that. i saw this firsthand during my trip recently october 21 i landed in belgrade serbia my travels as is the chairman of the foreign relations committee would bring me to kosovo, albania and croatia. within a few hours of landing in belgrade i was handed to the train from the screen from my trip as a soccer match between the serbian and albanian

national team but provocateurs piloted a small drug during the first half was a flag portraying a map of the fictional state unify and in the balkans. in the atmosphere they were allowing some journalists into the stadiums and they were shouting and the drone was the last straw among the spectators that turned into who live in. the game was called off and was isolated. paymasters were postponed and reminded of two things, first

football is sometimes more important than life and death. congress was consumed with the question of the balkans. war had broken out from allegations of genocide and mass atrocities were allowed through the community. america today with passion over the response and ultimately president clinton dispatched the troops that were still there to this day. september 11 turned the nation to other parts of the world. the involvement and interest was received consistently year after year over the course of the last decade so today i want to argue that the balkans merit our

continued attention. we are right to be much more focused today on the conflicts in the middle east. we are right as a nation to turn our attention to the emerging power in the theater. but my argument today is going to be simple but there are still some relatively low costs higher reward interventions we can make in the balkans to but the window of influence may be a narrow one. we shouldn't simply take for granted that the ethnic religious and political peace this has largely held within the region since the conflict of the 1990s as permanent and the flag at a soccer game could

result into prime prime minister is postponing a diplomatic meeting tells you all you need to know about the nature of this fragile peace in the region. he was warning that this incident was going to greatly sit back ethnic reconciliation efforts. i urged similar concerns when i took a trip to albania leader in the week. to be sure of the major breakthroughs the major breakthroughs have been achieved. who could've guessed that they would be on the path to normalize the relationships and ultimately recognize the existence and goes about and despite the fact that it's been put off, do visit to serbia is still a momentous event whenever it occurs. still the memories of the war are fresh and the potential flashpoints are everywhere. as the nation's attention turns

to the fight against iraq and syria we should pay attention to the growing numbers of the foreign fighters who are being recruited in the balkans. until recently there has been no tradition of him is gone next extremist in places and even today the mosques are an outlier of exceptions to the rule. they are serious about their religion but they are secular states and cultures and people define themselves by their ethnicity than by their religion. that's money from the terrorist funders has begun to creep in and evidence suggests that over 200 young men from kosovo above and have been recruited into the ranks. this happens in part because of the rate of unemployment of poverty among younger people. most than putting kosovo upwards of 50% of young men are without

jobs. this disconnection leads the region right for the recruiters that promise money that had a view of any alternatives to provide for their families and isis is developing a safe haven for these men with reports that they are somewhere inside or near the harbor of writing in the balkans. maybe they recognize this. i think her for the enforcement actions in the recruiters with u.s. assistance is getting better at finding an arrest of the bad actors and this will make a difference going forward. the third reason is probably the most important and relevant that

we are having about the new order but to put it bluntly that u.s. pulls back in the region and russia is on the doorstep ready to take our place. i returned more worried about the influence in the region and what that might mean for our interest. don't misunderstand what i'm about to say. i'm not making a cold war argument where any position occupied by russia is automatically the loss for us in fact i said over and over again in the region that we don't view geopolitics in the same way that russia does. they should be able to have a relationship with russia and the united states and europe and be careful not to play the same zero-sum game that russia makes

in the region but i do believe that we will be better off with a secure non- corrupt governments in the region and i'm skeptical such would be flooded where putin's legacy if he is able to win more influence in the region. you can feel the growing influence in the city. drive around and you will see billboard after billboard with the flags together in an embrace with a small barely visible logo they had organized a military parade to coincide and as a deafening sound of the fighter jet to be rehearsing the one seemed alarmed by this extraordinary display of the military power they will almost

universally tell you that they would assign. this is natural considering the russian military support for the independence dating back to the fight against the ottomans and extending today when a friendship and alliance with russia reminds them that they have the unique relationship to lean on end times. the relationship is the means to flex its muscle in the region. russia is looking for ways to extend its influence is here via dalia for syria and increased dependence in the entire region and russian energy and even more dangerous this talk they seek to expand the military partnership locating the troops somewhere in

serbia. serbia for the time being believed the relationship in the u.s. and europe on one hand and russia on the other hand and there is no denying that they truly do want an economic future with europe. he wouldn't have helped to support and implement normalize and the relationships with closer though if he didn't think that it was required but in other areas he cited the requests to join in the sanctions over its invasion of ukraine. serbia should be able to have it both ways and have the relationship with russia and the european union but i left belgrade seeing some alarming parallels with ukraine. these are apples and oranges, but they sought to have it both

ways. but in the long process of the application into the negotiation of the european union it left russia with plenty of time to use a panoply two who are then back into the russian orbit. they aren't getting a full envoy anytime soon and this week's time to needs time to increase the leverage over belgrade and force it to choose europe and the united states. that choice resulted in chaos and we shouldn't let it happen again. in montenegro the ties are not as strong but the intentions are no less than in serbia and we have a good ally today. russia sees this gap and hasn't given up trying to fill the

role. russia would like nothing more than a proxy in the middle of the arm. it is an open secret putin has made several multibillion dollars to cite another. base. so far there isn't any interested but that's kind of money that kind of money for the struggling country is hard to keep passing up over and over and russia is finding other ways like serbia they are funneling lots of money to buy the media outlets and becoming major landholders like visiting a major american luxury developer in the resort town. there's so much that as you drive along the road many of them that you will see our russian and they show show there is a decreasing enthusiasm for montenegro to join even while the majority of the parliament

supports them. a disturbingly it is hard to turn a blind eye to the russian money and influence so what can happen if it allows the presence to the balkan states there is a chance at second political tensions could boil over and could incentivize the radicalization of certain elements leading to more foreign fighters coming back to places like roosevelt and they could see them as the next front in their expansion. america has significant advantages and assets with two draw most importantly we are generally very well thought of.

they proved the image of the postwar era but we have low-cost cards to play. all with both europe and the united states we don't need to convince the leaders to what next to us we just have to execute select me leave you with a few recommendations for how they can be best in the balkans. seeking to maintain influence over serbia today belgrade needs to know that the united states is leaning into the bilateral relationship, not out of it. if a high-level visit from the administration would be an important value in the relationship and that would be a relatively easy to do with this proportional benefit to the minor cost of the other steps are not hard either as russia

has more money in serbia into the united it is withdrawing its index funds the efforts to improve democratic institutions and the rule of law to the major cuts in the past few years we should reverse the cuts and restore the money and let them know they are going to be a partner for years to come into the eye that states can play a larger role in helping serbia on the path. in the recession process and the recession process we can't afford to sit on the sidelines. they joined the united turned the united states into a major international crisis. i'm not saying that they are keyed up for that same kind of moment but as a friend of both brussels and belgrade they can play an active role than we have in helping to keep been helping

to keep the process moving along constructively. second ibb that they should offer membership to montenegro as soon as possible. they are trying to muddy the water as soon as possible and we shouldn't just assume that montenegro will continue the offers if nato continues to spur. the reason to keep them out of the alliance doesn't hold water anymore. guess the country has a long way to go for it comes to the rule of law and freedom of the press. in a modern democracy takes time and it's worth asking the question whether they will get there faster as part of their umbrella or putin. finally we shouldn't fear upsetting russia over the invitation to montenegro and we should hear the opposite. the aggression are worse in the open door policy that we are simply encouraging russia to continue to engage.

along the lines and the rules that it traditionally has and we should increase the partnership of existing nato allies in the region. they will give you one specific example on how we can do this. in croatia a dependable ally of the united states still rely on russian hardware particularly the helicopters and the military. they want to move away from the talkers in the talkers and and start biting blackhawks but they need u.s. help and the help of the united states to help them locate at least a few so they can save some money and begin the transition could have. if we do this, if we have the will to do this we could find a way. finally a simple idea for the region to buy at large favor the connection to america and exchange programs in great demand in the countries are merrily because of their

inability to access the waiver program. i met with a group of students for so enthusiastic about america that they were practically appendages of our embassy. if we were to take the resources to make a commitment to the double exchange programs for the students to come to the united states in the programs like the open world over the next five years it would make make an indoor best difference having a small vocal group of the u.s. voices that can speak from first-hand experience so i would argue that these are relatively low impact and low-cost steps the united states can take in short order to reassert our presence and priority in the balkans. if the region that the congress and the state department used to know very well that it causes us

to lose too much focus and as the site grew into different regions appropriately, they are becoming transfixed as the next project. it's a difficult region to understand, but i think that in the end that is the reason they choose not to focus there any longer. we left the meeting with the serbian foreign minister best advice i have for someone trying to comprehend the bullpen's is don't. it's worth our time and attention. we put too much blood and treasure in the region to turn away now but it out and wonderful people. strong connections here in the united states not the least of which in my state in connecticut and at the good news is that today as we sit here now a little more u.s. effort in the balkans will go and awful long

way. thank you for having me here today. >> my name is dan hamilton and i directed the relations at johns hopkins. we have colleagues hear from the other universities so i want to welcome them as well. senator, thank you so much for joining us. as sad, we've been working a lot over many years and many of my colleagues and also the government doing that. we have to do a little oversized. of course we have a book on the balkans that was done a wire like oh. i think that the title is imported at least for the context of what the senator said as unfinished business. there is a temptation to retrench and look at obviously

huge challenges elsewhere and i think the senator provided a good list of practical things to do but to start off a conversation, senator you said it's a lot of dynamics in variables but maybe it's still the united states itself. so even what you say are the low-cost initiatives i wonder if you could reflect on what the real appetite is in the united states either in the administration or congress to provide the type of support that you were asking for and at the type of focus and energy, time and when there are so many other challenges how do we do this one of your suggestions on the membership was directly involved

so it's not just about the state department and administration, it's about what is the new and do you think that we are reengaged in the way that you are suggesting. >> i don't want to overplay my argument. we are appropriately focused on other parts of the world whether it be the middle east or asia and the way that we have organized the state department requires our great assistant secretary of state to focus the attention on the crisis in ukraine over the course of the last year she made a very well received up to the balkan region several months ago and the question had been in the state department some difficulties in acquiring enough oxygen in

ukraine and in the balkans. i think that there is growing interest in at least the senate because we are starting to think about the lessons are. i don't want to draw a direct parallel because it is as nefarious as it may be is in some states north but a small investment with places like serbia and montenegro can go a long way so i think there's going to be growing interest as we reconvened in the senate to think about how we avoid another crisis like ukraine and there is no doubt that putin is feeling frisky or than ever when it comes to the countries on his

periphery and there's plenty of evidence there is plenty of evidence to suggest that we have some designs when it comes to the countries in the balkans so i think this gives the territory to make this argument to the colleagues that now is the time to do something necessary to prevent another crisis from occurring. >> we are quite engaged on the issues and i have colleagues working on this all the time. one of my colleagues just came back and had a piece in the huffington post but quite of few join in the conversation and. this is a terrifically well-done presentation and i agree with

everything you said so i would like to take it a little bit further. we can walk and chew gum at the same time and you are right this isn't a zero-sum thing we can concentrate on the middle east or central asia or china and is still have a lot of capital both physical and financial left over for the balkans. i think you're a canary was superb you couldn't get every country that you didn't get and i would like to put in a plug for including both of those countries in the agenda that you put forth. we are obviously very heavily invested in bosnia and we were the country that put an end to the horrible combinations combination civil war and foreign intervention from 1992 to 95.

we still have a lot of street credibility in the country be vetoed or not even in some of the serbian areas of the country and i think that we meet at the headlines from the election of weekend a half ago which the headline quote on quote of nationalist being reelected there was a lot of reform and i would hope the embassy could reengage on constitutional reform. macedonia is the key because they are getting their ties to russia. i think that we have to help them succeed. second, macedonia. if we could get the issue settled both sides by greeks and macedonians have not been as

tactful it is any social issue but it is eminently solvable and macedonia past all the qualifications with flying colors and there are people that say how can we have the one country i think that its logic but the fact is that it would be immediately the number round of two. it's not nearly as much as they should be in the ongoing problems and they could spill over. so rather than ask a question because the presentation is so fantastic i would like to put in the blog for why we are doing it

extended the act for those countries. >> i am in wholehearted agreement. the only thing worse than the round of one is another round of zero we are slowly shutting the open door that make it difficult to extend the membership got we need to make it clear to everyone on the region and to our adversaries the same rules still apply. in macedonia it strikes me that we take for granted the progress that was being made and that progress is largely stopped and started to receive. that's what i worry about in the region at large.

you can talk about the progress that has been made between serbia and kosovo in the stable government as an optimistic view of the region but as europe starts to get less enthusiastic about extending the membership and the specter of another chills and ambitions to invest in the process as nato sends mixed signals about whether we are expanding, then the imperative for the continued reform starts to wane. the reality is that the euro atlantic and the trans-atlantic future is what drove a lot of the countries to get serious about the democratic reforms. as an overarching theme one of the reasons that it has an offer to montenegro is somee but then the alliance has to show that there is still an ability to join because the perfect

example of that. they have to figure out a way to be more creative in terms of using europe for the leaders from much more attached to the games they get out of the sacrifices that they would have to make to join europe but they still love to play them in a different way than they are doing today. >> is one of the preeminent experts in the balkans and stands with us today. i wonder if you can anticipate right here. >> if i can stop for a moment. >> senator, one of the things that has to be done before we

can truly say that he finished his two completely normalized relationships between kosovo and serbia. that means for me recognition and diplomatic relations. europe and the united states tend to think that that should be put off and i'm wondering what your view is. should this be put off or should we say what's true to belgrade in particular that without this you are not going to make the progress that you want to make. >> i don't think that it gets any easier as the time passes so it's an easy thing to push down the road but if there is a belief that this will be easier

i'm not sure that's the case. i was very impressed with the dialogue and the general acceptance of the direction that the normalization is going to take and so every meeting that we had there was very little resistance to the movement that was needed going forward and the similarly there is an easy excuse right now to explain the lack of progress on implementing the agreement which is the lack of a government and when i was there i chose not to meet with any of the political leadership and i sent a pretty strong message that if kosovo isn't serious about putting together a coalition government banned it is starting to harm its relationship with its friends and its delegations curtailing

their visits as far as i did because of the political uncertainty but i was generally impressed with the way that people talked about the dialogue and the inevitability that i sensed but it likely won't get any easier if people perceive this to be the new normal. >> we can open up now for more questions and comments. if you can't say who you are that would be useful. yes, sir.

>> i would like to thank the senator for his engagement in the region. i think it is useful to have two remarks and the question one is regarding. i am not sure that it works that well but there are some potential differences. at the same time they have engaged the recession ended the country that is open. they stated that the roundtables that it's the fact that at this engagement from some other places like brussels or washington might lead to some

development. you are aware but the thing is we are fully committed in the meetings and what we were doing a rehab some progress and my question is what is your feeling both here and here on the alternative if there is some sort of a need for more engagement so what is your feeling about the engagement. did you get the chance to

discuss the investment? >> i think that it is a good fight and the focus cannot only be because it isn't as certain as the timetable. there is a willingness in brussels but it's going to take a while to get from here to there so that means we have to get a stronger bilateral relationship and so we talked to very specifically about the ways they can engage in belgrade. there is a major debate happening and there is a company that we think can provide a very substantial answer and hopefully we will be able to engage in having that connection.

our policy cannot simply be to tell countries like serbia we have got to provide some alternatives and we have that ability as a country to figure it out how to put ourselves on a path to energy independence by developing our own resources we can deliver that kind of technological assistance to our friends so i tried to make it clear how important this is and i wish they would make the case even stronger. i feel very strongly about it about the importance of moving it along the process in accordance with the eu but the united states and europe need to tell them what the alternatives are into that means robustly

moving in another pipeline project that will have branches available in the energy resources and potential tracking the united states needs to be more of an active player and again i think i said this a couple times but your comment makes it worth repeating i really don't want to overplay this paralleled by making. in part by criticism is of the way that the eu has handled many of these processes and i think that the european union has been existing in a world where previous to the last several years to which there is no alternative as russia seeks to create stronger relationships so they have to be smarter and a

bit more flexible in the way that it approaches peace processes so that's not necessarily that it's not necessarily that there is an insincerity i'm sure they are dedicated to the european path but that has to be a reasonable pathway that recognizes the differences in the countries that pursue it >> the energy point is quite critical. you are proposing a number of ways to reorganize or approach and support. the united states could also be a major energy actor in europe but that would require egg and action here to allow that to happen and i wonder what your sense of the different kind of legislation or changing procedures to the u.s. would be engaged.

>> this is a fascinating moment in the united states today we have these new aspects which is largely accrue to the benefit of the american economy robust deposits of natural gas and oil that has been part of the story by the u.s. economy is growing in the last quarter after three and a half% while all of our friends in the world look with envy and i don't think the united states should view our energy resources. we have had scant discussions or debates in the congress about how to simply leave the policies with national security policies. how do we at least hope our friends is not setting aside the

question how to punish our enemies were adversaries the reality is that right now if we were to move ahead in the export of natural gas it's not likely that it would end up on the european shores. croatia has been talking for a long time about a facility that could provide a pathway to the balkans but it would be onto europe. why doesn't the united states talk about that and whether it's appropriate to have a policy now that once an export approves send it into the international market. is there an ability to target the resources to some parts of the world but have little other options without going down the road that has a tool to

influence our relations i think there is a middle ground but it's fairly remarkable that the united states in congress isn't having this discussion especially when it's a place that could be united. they separate republicans and democrats when it comes to energy policy but we generally are attracted to the idea of using these resources to at least help some of our friends that requires changing the law to allow for the export of oil but i think if we are going to send a message that you can't build this without withstanding the conflict zone in ukraine did we have to be open to some alternatives.

>> wait for the microphone, please >> i'm a member of the parliament of mexico and visited the dc as a fulbright scholar. at the beginning i would like to complement the senator that covered everything and as it was said earlier i would like to just briefly mention a few aspects in the developing democracy that has been of remarkable departments and there i would certainly enlist the partnership with the embassy and the presence in supporting the government added the authorities to implement the complex

sensitive power-sharing arrangement and for that reason they focus as a part to continue and perhaps become even more stronger. then it is certainly the support that we as political partners have received by those in strengthening the democracies in the quality of our parliamentary notions of parliamentarian as i'm rather than making sure that we have a functioning dialogue the senator pointed to at the moment and i'm sure that there would be another hour or more of discussions not to mention it

has been extremely polarized along the ethnic and religious lines. >> these are good examples you should be an advocate to make a difference. >> the senator mentioned that the u.s. has to engage itself on serbia so by trying to draw an analogy i would ask whether the senator would see a possibility of the engagement for instance in drawing the framework of the enabling macedonia to start the negotiations on the membership

which is a model that has been promoted and supported by the government so what you see there is a possibility for that's similar to both negotiating memberships and overcoming. >> i think that we have to make that coordination with our allies you still have to figure that out before you get into any final agreement. but you are making a powerful argument for why they continue to be involved. that usaid has made progress in the relatively small amount of money that we are sending in the country through the usaid and the embassy goes a long way.

we need to protect the interest and we watched the state department lose that fight on an annual basis. the balkans is a great advertisement for why we need to so the line on the state department because that is what allows them to continue. in my state i had a population with a lot of friends back home who are frustrated about the lack of process and integration.

this is something that comes up very often in my conversation. >> i'm a university professor and i've read your fascinating books and your lecture was also excellent and coming back to the alternatives that you mentioned on the promising information as part of the company have you heard any alternative?

>> this is a national energy company that is effectively done jointly by the hungarian entity and controlled now by this entity there is a long-running dispute between the major ownership entities and it's been expressed in the willingness to desire to show an interest in selling and you are right that the issue is the creation and i'll structure of the alternatives but nothing more than to get their hands on the major distribution network.

i mentioned in the e-mail i wrote about my trip that i did hear from the prime investor that there was no appetite for selling the portion of this company at a recent solicitation of offers i don't really they put. they put an offer on the table so i think they are distracted by others but the u.s. does need to play an active role in helping to define this alternative. it may be that an alternative needs a form of international financing from the eu or the united states and the amount of money that is at stake is a large one i've been encouraging

in the state department and encouraging them to play a more active role. there's a process there is a process of mediation between croatia and hungary over the dispute of this entity so far we haven't heard back on the selection of a mediator and there isn't any reason why you couldn't double track right now i fear that they view this as binary in the sense that they would rather pursue an investor rather than pursue this arbitration and i think that we feel that both could happen at the same time.

>> i promise to get you out on time so i want to thank the senator for joining us on this great team and thanks to our team as well for putting this together. otherwise thank you all for coming and we look forward to seeing you again. please join me in thanking senator murphy. [applause] ..

>> >> and to wish him and his

family well. it was a nice conversation and i hope he does well with his continued service for the commonwealth of virginia and the country. this was a hard-fought race and i am proud of the campaign we have run and i loved every minute of it. [applause] maybe not this one so much. [laughter] we ran the issue driven policy focused campaign with a specific proposal to create jobs with take-home pay to lift people out of poverty and reduce energy prices. we started 29 points down and run up said more than

two / one and in the end of shift of 9,000 votes could have changed the outcome of this election. and if i believe there was any conceivable way to find a viable path to wind through a recounting would fight as hard now as i had for the past 10 months for our policies and principles. but iran because i love our country and our commonwealth it is wrong to go through every count were in my head and heart i know it changes the outcome is not possible

>> we are ready to start. welcome to a very timely seminar. thanks for all of the people who can put this together with the great deal of taste considering the topic and the health challenges we have to create responses from ebola to terrorism and of course, i think it is extraordinarily timely event and we have a super panel here. but we are blessed with a

panel that has a lot of military and government for medical experience are all kinds of experience that you need to do talk about this topic along with the international legal device and that kind of thing. somebody told me one time if you want a good idea rita book and that is very timely this was the book written in 13 years ago and the title is terrorism and medical responses for policy implications. i think that says it all. >> thanks for your kind words. since you mentioned the book

i would call your attention to an extraordinary book of the general and we have the information that we provided to you if you read the book you know, what it is all about. and actually we have to learn the lesson is what worked and what didn't work and then general made many contributions for many years. before we move on to our speakers, with some of my duties first of all, thanks to the co-sponsors of this event at the potomac institute with the chairman

unfortunately is not here today but with some of our colleagues, catherine? you are in the back and a few other members and my colleague for many years of the institute. and i do have to mention that colleagues that are not here that work with us for a long time the center for national security law particular vague the professor turner. my colleague edward brenner who died and we worked several years ago so let me

first the first panel i will make some remarks before they speak. you will see is impressive bio. from the u.s. senate and so on. also from the potomac institute with a very rich background you can see that.

and our next panelist is the professor from south asia with the un and so forth you do have a program in front of you and i would like to make a few remarks is the obligation to put some context for discussion. before that i would like to mention we dedicate the

seminar first of all, in the memory of the victim's of violence manmade or mother nature. but now those that have died because of ebola or those that were victimized by terrorism throughout the world. as we speak we have to do keep in mind when dealing with the challenge that is very serious with implications we certainly have two's think about the victim's. also a specific segment of the society, are

particularly targeted by terrorism for example, those that tries to bring us the information in with that islamic state of james solely. so a dedication to woo the victims and we also have to celebrate of those whose serve to protect our societies and in this case the medical community with the responders of the law enforcement people the military government and society in general. second, if i may we try to pull together a seminar that

has two major challenges. in other words, . i have a few slides. but has made no reface two major challenges of natural disasters and man-made disasters from earthquakes to the deadly business of ebola. and second, a man-made all the way from the economic collapse. obviously we have to deal

with both of them to understand what are some of the major challenges we have to deal with. if i may, we have to make the connection with the historical experiences with tour three times. trying to live with technology i don't know. nothing israel under the sun except technology. right? i amusing the uh the wrong thing. [laughter] with that publication with the challenges in africa was published yesterday to

provide with copies living with ebola as well as the terrorism challenges. if for example, we look all the way back and it is very clear what happens to society's with the victimization but it is interesting to look for their reactions and though most to blame for these disasters that are natural as well as man-made and then look what shakespeare said to point the finger who is guilty of the disasters. but the best answer was provided by know when he

built the arc. because he basically sent the message that should be a thing critical with policy and he said there is no room for the laser in decisions. government has to move and society has to move in order to deal with the challenges. honestly we can look back at the middle ages. but the middle ages is not just a chapter in history. we find in the contemporary struggle that some extremist try to push an idea.

in other words, for example, with the crisis in war there were communications the two were poisoning those in gaza to feel -- killed more and more people. but if we look back at the responses coming this is the one picture from the middle ages affecting themselves from the black plague and basically you can see the cloth which is the real cost. with a sponge with vinegar.

event the professor and i remember we were together at the conference in the result of the turkish republic by the way celebrated the anniversary of the turkish republic. but coming up with this particular statement of the nation's lettuce seems to me for us to follow with the humanity that we cannot be detached from reality to look at that situation. so today we will deal with the virus and the threat of

ebola and what we have learned from history there are two emotions that drive people one is fear. but obviously we see what happens with very few cases in the united states and the west and it did generate a great deal of fear. because we did not anticipate that there were many, many cases from malaria and so on.

so let's get ebola specifically and what are some of the challenges we will face in the coming months and years. finally we will discuss the security issue that deals with terrorism now with isis i suggest we look at others as well for example, like hezbollah and also we mark this month in october the 31st the anniversary of the attack of the french forces in lebanon. in behalf to look as belote as well because we find they're very much engaged as we know with syria according to all kinds of reports to

upgrade its capacity probably 100,000 records set and in the case of a third lebanon war we will see obviously that kind. but now in addition to looking at others in their religion and the next one of courses in the al qaeda group. that not only of chitin central that we will -- al qaeda central we will discuss it to get an update as well.

and boko haram and so on and then obviously it is upgraded what is happening now in the region and elsewhere with the emergence of the group in the region also dealing with the homeless issue is particularly now we find we witnessed the attack on the egyptian army in the cyanide with the loss and other external groups. and clearly in order to develop security it must

construct a buffer zone between sinai and got and israel. no doubt that we have to pay close attention to stability in egypt which is the most important country. the islamic state that we will discuss in some details and what is interesting of that islamic state that they can somehow recruit volunteers all over the world. for example, from to be shed today according to reports there are about 3,000 volunteers despite the fact

tunisia approved it is somehow developed the elections that we know about for the islamic state. it is very well known but i would like to mention the also women and children. we know the islamic state controls territories in the concern is it has a grand plan strategy. and obviously we have to be concerned about it. and in regard to the role of terrorism.

deere going to discuss the humanitarian crisis as we go into some details that we know if you take syria with those refugees if you take into account the refugees from the various countries from the middle east. in the same thing we will discuss it. so basically water refacing in terms of security? we must discuss not only ebola but also nuclear

challenges. and then of course, to strike a balance of the human rights and civil liberties. so with that you can come up and speak. >> i appreciate it. >> sure. >> ladies and gentlemen, and the people on the panel is a privilege to be here today. i reminded of of'' by plato only the death has seen the end of four but it seems that in terrorism also. with the topic of ebola it represents what i think is an interesting point in time

that gave historical reference to the black plague because it highlights some points i will make later about the risks that we face in the 21st century or future plagues that will be enabled by climate change change, globalization in vega urbanization. but i will talk about that later. but i would like to highlight we enter into this circumstance with a great humanitarian crisis in national security crisis of western africa after a fair bit of work has been done with how prepared this and health security it is my intent for what has been done with a fault lines from

a policy perspective for the current administration or the next president or the new congress that begins in january. the current ebola crisis as the vulnerability of the health care system that basically walked through the emergency room door in dallas that was sent out to throw the warning sent messages that the cdc said it was more than possible that ebola victims could walk into your emergency room or hospital. but you could argue this is hype but i would argue something different that there is a very cool fear in the american public that predates the events that happened here in october.

i have a historical example back to 1946. you may not realize through retort to we had to manhattan project conducted one is to develop a nuclear bomb dr. oppenheimer but one gentleman his namesake the sound familiar with a multimillion-dollar pharmaceutical name was named after him but he was the american oppenheimer. but quite frankly during the civil years of world war ii they could never create a functional biological weapon said they intended to use for japan or germany to use those against us. to make that point there is a point about the role of

intelligence. in 1943 when the president was warned of the possibility of biological warfare the u.s. intelligence committee told him germany had a biological weapons program and japan did not. we found out it was the exact opposite. as you can relate to a more recent example for the intelligence community has a bad 100 percent right but note it is the case then and now if we rely on intelligence we may be disappointed natalie terrorism but also a disease itself. but in 1946 there was a report about the efforts to develop biological weapons. one of the few cases with the unclassified released to the public and pulled from

all the scholz. why? because it scared the jesus out of the american public to create a firestorm and you can recount that if you go through the archives of "newsweek" and "time" magazine when they were printed on paper to evaluate not only the scientific debate but if your info you could have agents that were invisible, totally alien to our sense is to kill you in rapid fashion. everybody has been sick in their life to a current reference to the illness as it is. few people had ebola but if you recall the hot zone there is a compelling case we should fear such an organism.

there is a fear by the public and also a created fear from the popular movies of the subject and the media has not missed their chance to this printer advertising in today's world but it represents an interesting excess with a potential for terrorism of what we experienced around and levin. so i would just argue for the purposes of this panel that in some ways riley view that ebola crisis that could migrate into a different space should someone take advantage of the availability of a virus like ebola that could deliberately infect people. this is not news to you but

you need to understand that health care system of to date the trillion dollar activity the u.s. government currently spends $225 million that is one one-hundredth of 1% of what we annually spend with health care. you can imagine what we gain is evident when a single case walks through the door for any other disease of significance by smallpox but quite frankly it does not have a thread of prepared this weaved through it to ensure the health care system that we will develop over time that americans have access to is a system that is prepared to meet the

challenges of of the 21st century and the bullet is the poster child for the challenges ahead of us. the other thing to understand the money we spend on health prepared this is 3% of what people spend on potato chips. as of society we don't have a lot of significance or prayer or a put on the monetary side i need to convey there is a wealth of things that have been done from the mid-90s and the clinton administration that have legislative action and to the point where in some ways we have enough policy with the nafta legislation to do what we need to do that failed on execution to

do was establish like legislative statutes and i will give you some examples. first of all, president clinton recognized the concern about bio terrorism even though conventional press said it was about the synthetic fibers that someone comes up with but much like the einstein letter of the 1940's sent to president fdr clinton got a letter from a distinguished nova laureate who earlier that decade in 1982 did a study that indicated emerging diseases would be a significant consideration in the future. 1982 before the issues of

global climate change before globalization was realized the professors basically recognized we were on a converging path potentially with disaster with the possibility of emerging diseases of bio terrorism. and it was their work that basically initiated things and i agree believer in our system of government that at best to hope for imperfect incrementalism to lookit any issue of the united states history whether civil-rights our defense policy or public and medical preparedness that we make use steps forward and one step is back and then move forward again.

it is with that a series of legislative initiatives that basically have been after 9/11 one is the prepared this act of a bike to take credit for it actually senator richard burr from north carolina and ted kennedy championed that bill. the significance is used national-security to redefine the u.s. government's role to prepare for these events. interestingly enough to make reference to a project from the general in his career but we use that as a template not because the capabilities should be aligned along the access but

it did identify joint operations putting someone in charge of the command structure role of position was created in with a crisis at hand you don't hear much about that office but it was their function to do the necessary things to space u.s. government's efforts but not all the hhs but also the idea to space the state and local authorities or the soldiers of this activity. we can argue that was effective or not but i do hope as a result of ebola someone has the wisdom they

had in '80s to commission in of holloway report that we talked about with these proceedings. but why did things fail? because what they identified with the vision that they left over two decades went from a point in time with a tremendous failure of rescue but to celebrate the demise of osama bin baden that did not come overnight or because somebody said let's do it it took decades of commitment to do for essentials things that i argue today are the essential elements what we need to redress the current

people look crisis in any future one we may encounter one is to recruit the best people if you look at the record right now there is the brain drain and let the public health community people operating state and local levels to ensure that people abide by the quarantine to do the things that were the rest of the public to the diseases and knowledge in the medical community we don't necessarily trained or equipped them. the events in dallas approved there is no such fame as just-in-time prepare it is the idea to have a force at the ready to be trained and equipped yesterday i spent the entire day to co-chair a panel of the institute of medicine on

prepared this and spent the day what has transpired with ebola the herd from leaders from atlanta, nebraska, new york with their experience so far and what they really needed to do was to have the equipment at hand than they were well trained. not just-in-time training but to ensure we could meet the emissions of these are essential elements of the challenges we face right now in terms of preparing. you hear of the ad hoc teams department of defense the search through the gap filler spasm look forward to the events it does raise a question how much will

reinvest in this baser how much of a priority? after this ebola crisis realizes the next one is on the horizon. there are to policy issues sarah outstanding that need to be addressed then we will be at the end of my time with final thoughts. first of all, whether the lessons that we learned in the early 2000 period that could have been a lot worse? we know from that commission report because that perpetrator could take a signal of a lot of that anthrax to put into a ventilation shaft in the metro he would've killed several people who could have affected several thousand and this points out

an important issue of the conversion of what has happened to talk about moving overseas to harm security but in considering these events we always believed bio terrorism or biowarfare to conduct these attacks we create a situation the basically in fact, millions of people simultaneously to do with these the aerosol and infectious diseases. overtime if we prepare for natural events like ebola somehow you get the

improvement may be at a lower cost but that is a more likely scenario. like telling the army to use the football analogy with the redskins to say they will play a local high school team during practice when they play the cowboys. if you retired of a certain way that we will basically not prepare ourselves the worst-case scenario but also a reasonable case for terrorism trying to use these as what bins but as you can see in that ebola case to deal with the single

case of a natural reserve rain disease but the second issue is a fall the efforts of preparedness that somehow outside the domain of regular health care as an adjunct that is another major policy issue that they think is outstanding. mccaw's stock of these comments and let it be events that made challenging a matter what they were deliberate in origin with

three central factors talk about climate change and globalization if you get on up plane today to be in the united states the next day carrying a diseased or basically having 10 people purposely inoculated that could be infiltrated by commercial airliners. but ebola was not a problem in the past because it was in a remote village somewhere people would get sick and die but there was no access to modern transportation the outbreak was naturally contained. now there are better roads people living in large

environments with people living in the environment is someone gets sick in that environment with other conveniences of life that are not available to create a circumstance of where these could propagate but if anything went over my time but i hope i left you with a sense of the landscape that first is the m perfect incrementalism two decades of a dedicated effort for all medical infrastructure and we have many miles before we sleep or get a right it is not rocket science with the analogies that we have done in other areas there is a way to rapidly fix this problem is not entirely expensive but

it takes priority and relationship with a modification of resources to do so and to define the problem directly so that the challenges before us are more likely to be more frequent some things that is entirely different and we should have the wisdom and the fortitude before it happens because there is no just in time prepared this. [applause] >> general gray m prof in distinguished guest it is difficult to go after someone who i respect tremendously is an adviser

for many years in terms of policy issues. is liable specifically focus on the facts and ethical issues related to this disease. is in africa for a remote villages and a tropical rainforest cases were reported in the democratic republic of congo the republic of condo and for the first time to see cases in liberia and syria. betrayed 1870's six and 2012 to thousand 388 cases in 90 deaths were quoted to look at the numbers today that is amazing that is something we want to keep in perspective. another important thing is

how does ebola spread? fruit bats are a reservoir and a nonhuman primate such as the eighth in the monkeys are carriers that are transmitted to humans. look at human to human transmission they thought the start of the outbreak so far is of unknown. the first patient is affected by primates that has the spill over effect a person to person transmission leading to a large number of people being affected and primates were also affected and also they died during the outbreaks in considering the needs of

those primates they got infected but to spread in simple ways as we all have heard broken skin or mucous membranes or her eyes or nose or mouth of a sick person and it is not limited to saliva or sweats or pieces -- feces but also seen in. they can contaminate and transmits and also the food bath. research says the disease does not spread through air or buy food in africa is a result the handling of the

bush read there is no evidence that mosquito's are other insects can transmit ebola. they can no longer spread the virus is headed is found in semen up through three months and that is something to consider of their october october 29th as the as a year strain has infected over 30,000 people close to 5,000 deaths which brings the current case to about 36 percent. the other countries sierra leone and new guinea and liberia. nigeria had 20 cases and eight deaths that was declared ebola free october 19 senate all had one case then they were declared ebola free. just recently as a child had

died of people love to all districts of sierra leone have reported one case due to its proximity to guinea to be the next potential country that could get the disease are 500 health care workers that 50 percent have died which is a very high number because right now that general population is 36% the interestingly the case was 80% of that site year strain the last outbreak was 32 percent we're getting close to those percentages that we anticipate for this particular strain that we all know and october 6 of a nurse was taking care of two

missionaries to contracted the disease but no trace was found in her blood and spain will be declared ebola free after 42 days. we know about the cases in the united states and the problems and issues with prepared this and recognition it is something we need to look at very carefully and appreciate. there is in one case in new york right now diagnosed a vendor 23rd with of doctors about borders damages for tracking the people he was in contact with is done in new york there was another potential case did the work of a little child taken to hospital that tested negative and a case in

maryland on october 27th but it turned out that was not a positive case that the cdc and outlined plans to monitor travel there would be considered of our risk of infection so it would be seized low or no o rest to the population so these guidelines would open some the states as new york and new jersey the department of defense came up with this policy u.s. army's isolated one dozen soldiers at the base in italy including one

of the initial responses of the ebola outbreak in africa dozens more will be isolated in the coming days where the military has been building infrastructure we all know there are 3,000 troops on the ground to help with this particular problem. how do diagnose this particular disease? we did not have a new way but in response of the epidemic the fda issued the emergency use authorization for the chain reaction for ebola. then another emergency authorization for a new diagnostic test which can be

done on urine or blood with results in an hour. france is developing the ebola screens if which is developed by the french energy atomic commission to potentially diagnose a patient in about 15 minutes but with treatment there is no approved treatment available for the disease has been talk of complications the multiple therapeutics have been developed in the process to help work on this disease to those two particular vaccines one by glaxo smithkline and another by a canadian vaccine that is developed and a miss iowa. both with the test of all efficacy and safety in

humans that is done right now comes out okay then there should be a decent amount of supply and the first quarter of 2015 for populations within the united states for health care workers are first responders and africa. one of the other important factors to consider there are just not enough beds for the patients. . .

all of you heard that experts predicted that if appropriate measures are not taken, we can expect approximately 10,000 cases per week starting in thames in africa. well, let me say that in two of the countries that the outbreak is currently going on, we're seeing -- in terms of cases. so there's some hope that this potential outbreak can be nipped by january if appropriate measures are taken. as dr. cadillac had suggested, the world is making this up as we go, and we have become more comfortable with