>> author evan osnos was recognized for his non-fiction work "age of ambition: chasing fortune, truth, and faith in the new china" and earlier this year he discussed the book on q&a.

>> this week on q&a our guest is journalist and author who discusses his new book, "age of ambition: chasing fortune, truth, and faith in the new chin china". >> host: evan osnos in your new book, under the acknowledgments, you start out by saying none of my grand parents lived to see the book but they are responsible for its conception. tell us more. >> well, my grandparents on my father's side came from poland and my mother's father was a diplomat sent to hungary and kicked out accused of being a

spy but he wasn't. but the experience of being ejected from poland and hungry founded a backdrop for the life under authority. it wasn't explicit parts of the conversation but i was interested in what it felt like to live in a country in which there were constraints on what you could care about and what your values were like and when there was a moment in my life where you could do that china fascinated me. >> host: when you went there in there in 1996 could you speak chinese? >> guest: i was starting to speak it. if anyone told you how hard it would be no one would undertake it. but i was a year in and took four years before moving. i was just starting then.

>> host: i will ask you a question in english and want you to answer in chinese. >> host: you would say in chinese [speaking foreign language] and that means this book is about ambition and literally the wild heart. that is the term used in chinese to describe ambition. wild hard was not even possible. if you were accused of being ambitious or wild hearted it was a death sentence. it meant you put yourself before the group. for chinese history, that was totally not possible under the

c confucious and the other period. it was changing in a deep way and people were talking about themselves when there. not in a self glamoring way but a self-protective way. even the term in chinese for myself was transforming. people were getting comfortable using it. we talk about generation being this period in which we focused on ourselves too much. it was a revolution and conception of what it meant to be a person. people talked about us, the group, the family, the clan, the village and back before beginni

beginning and that started my eight year investigation of china. >> host: you married in the middle of all of this. how did you meet your wife? >> guest: i bet her in beijing. she went to china for a year, met me, stayed for six years and we came home together. >> host: does she speak chinese? >> guest: she does. she learned it working in a foreign environment. she was the manager for a dancing company and all day long she was surrounded by the speaking members and she has a natural understanding of how people talk day to day rather than learning it in the classroom which is more formal. >> host: what difference does it make in trying to write the book

and working for the new yorker once you spoke the language? >> guest: i could not have done the work i did we did at the new yorker if i did want speak the language in the sense that what makes the story and this book is the texture and minor strokes of conversation. the little choices that people make when they use an expression for instance or chose an idiom. the fascination i have with this concept of the wild heart, that would be in accessible to me if i had not studied chinese. studying mandrin is part of this process. and when i go with an interviewer i know the person is going to be speaking technical or a dialect or it gives me a cushion and i can speak about

what is on the wall behind them and what their emotional experience is like. it buys you time also. this is a great secret of working with a translator. >> host: so i would go both ways. >> guest: i went on a tour of europe with chinese tourist and the idea came from an editor at the new york. he said i heard the chinese people are going to europe and i thought maybe i will go through the tour and sign up and see the world through their eyes. there were 39 chinese tourist and me and from the get-go they were incrediblely welcoming. and i would like to imagine we would be just as welcoming.

i spent the whole trip eating chinese food in europe and nay were speaking in chinese and the mandrin and the ability to conver sate with them was the only way the story became possible. >> host: what did you learn about them being on the trip? had you been to the european places yourself? >> guest: i had. i was born in london and we visited europe. most of them were leaving asia for the first time. one guy was outside of asia and he was the font of the information they dependented on. and then there was a guide. he was much more of a guide in an american context. he was a story figure and authority figure and he told us

to sink roinize our watches because we were not going to miss anything in europe. when we think of china we think of a being a muscular figure making its way in the world and it feels brave and strong in ways that we don't in this moment. but the truth was dollthere was great sense of self-consciousness and vulnerability. and we go to chinese restaurants and i thought why would we go to franz france and italy and eat this food. but there is a deep insecurity that goes with venturing out into the world and that applies with the why china conducts itsself and that is it hasn't

taken the body of a super hero. they looked at things in europe and were not impressed. they looked at downtown milan and said why is their graffiti or why are they on strike because they want to work less? fundamentally what they were impressed by and brought home was the power of the western education system. the power of creative thinking. and i think that, more than anything else, is the thing that appeals to chinese people in the west. it isn't our physical infrastructure or our wealth. it is that we have this cultural in which people are able to pursue ideas in a way they have

not figured out how to do. >> you write about china stand up in your book. what is the story behind this video? >> guest: it was a video on the chinese equivalent of youtube. it emerged in 2008. you might remember the olympic torch was making its way around the world and people used it as an opportunity to express china's handling of tibet and human rights and things like that. it stirred a nationalist response and this video that came out on the web, in a way it is like a manifesto for that argument. this very proud and defensive response to the world's criticism of china. it was the most poplar video in

china second only to a tv blooper of a news anchor doing something stupid. it was cleary an attempt to express an idea i didn't recognize. i had pin in china for three years and this idea was becoming more powerful in china's life. it was a response to criticism from the west and i said i have to figure out who made the video. >> host: who made it? >> guest: i had an image of who i thought it would be. it would be someone who was angry, isolated from the west, and was probably living in the parent's basement totally unaware of what it means to be an american or feels like to be in the west. and a chinese friend helped me

trace it back, it wasn't hard to do, but there was no name, and he traced it back to a guy at a university and i got in touch saying can i come see you and he had sure. and before i left i said i am going to see this guy who made this angry video, if you don't hear from me for a couple days, ring the bell. the first thing he did when i arrived was pay for my taxi fair. he was a graduate student studying western philosophy. he was dressed like me. he was studying the work of esoteric and he said you are familiar and i said natural all-americans are familiar. >> host: were you? >> guest: no, i had to go back

and wikipedia it. he spoke german, english, studying ancient greek, and latin and he was deeply literate. his room was this personal library with everything from the koran to modern economic theory but he wasn't affectinate toward the west. it heightened the sense in which ways china was being drawn in. and that became for him a whole generation of talented successful people and a dominate fact of their reading of the world which is china only goes too far. >> reporter: the two names that stood out? we will show some of it. we broke it into three actually.

house education and workforce committee people, do you have any sense how many people in china have seen this? >> guest: millions. by the time i was interested in it it was up to millions. it is still on the web today and remains a taxed dock: a manifesto for the community calling themselves the angry youth. they are a stripe of chinese society that is angry for all kind of reason but the thing that draws them together is they are proud of what china is and frustrated their own lives are limited. >> i want to suggest to the audience that they watch this and read quickly. i wrote down what was said on there but the script is below. did you figure out the music? >> guest: it has surging strings

and it is this great thing and i said where did you find this and he had i typed into the internet moving music or emotional music in chinese and it pointed him to the artist. this was the soundtrack thooto the movie called "1492" >> host: didn't he do chariots of fire as well? >> guest: yeah, that is what we know him as. >> host: let's watch a few minutes and we will come back and talk about it. [video playing]

>> you go back to the beginning and you see chairman mao and then the words emperilism will

never destroy us. do they think that still? >> guest: fundamentally they do. they don't talk about it much. but they do feel in a deep way that the west will probably never allow china to achieve its full super power status without putting up a fight. and that has become a key element of the way that not just ordinary chinese people but chinese leaders see this moment in their rise in the world. that is a very anxious moment. they see an inevitability that way were one of the greatest nations in the world and they see when you look back over the two thousand years whenever a

country tries to emerge from against the united states there is conflict. they talk about the trap and the identifying of athens and sparta being the two dominant territoryies of the time and they ended up in conflict that lasted 30 years and ruined both of them. so the chinese recognize the threat of this moment. and that concept of china's antagonism encounters from the rest of the world is an important part of the education system over the last 25 years. that wasn't an accident. and the socialism was into rear-view mirror and the square

uprising in 1989 which we are marking the 25th anniversary this spring. that was a recognition the political idea of socialism wasn't going to satisfy people. they needed to pull people together and after the square fall and the failure to mobilize the failure to inspire people and those two things were economic prosperity and nationalism which was the ability to wrap people around the flag. patrioism. we they grow up in ways told the western countries have sought to keep china down. and in the 1920's china was carved up like a melon to

describe the way they tried to control the land. and they talk about a century of humilitation and they talk about how china weathered this. that is the dominant fact of what it means to think about chinese history. they spend energy on focusing on china from being humillated against. >> host: let's watch more of the china stand up video.

>> host: let's start with de last part on the dalai lama. tibet has 3-4 million people. >> guest: it is a vast territory. >> reporter: how many billion in china?

>> guest: 1.4 billion. >> host: why so much fuss over the country? >> guest: they call it atonomos region. tibet and the hong chinese have a different reading of how tibet is chinese. and importantly there is a debate which is is there a way to have a more robust tibetan life inside the borders. they want to worship more frequently and have fewer hahn

chinese moving into the tibetan areas. we hear about this in the west because the chinese do believe if they lost tibet and somehow it was able to achieve independence that would lead to similar secessionist movements elsewhere. china has 56 ethnicity and if they allowed themselves their integrity to be compromised they would lose everything and they blame the dalai lama most of all. >> host: why do we americans, and not everybody, but so much fuss over the dalai lama. >> guest: he say an accidental

person in history. he never left asia until his mid-30s. think about that. he lived very much the life of his predecessor and the predecessor before that. but he realized at a certain point if he did not turn the tibetan cause or allow himself to be the face of something people would emotionally connect with -- tibetans are not the only people when claim to have greater independence on a borer. americans have invested mystical

influences on tibet. but he has been a spokes person for tibet that i don't think people would have predicted. he was chosen as a toddler to have this role. his great friend was pope john paul ii and in some ways the way the role the pope played against the soviet empire is the role the dalai lama plays. >> host: how much financial support keeping him going comes from america? >> guest: we don't know. the conspiracy theory in china, there is all kinds, he is a fake and cia operative and the truth is probably simpler than that.

he has been effective at putting himself into the a conversation in the west that tibet wouldn't naturally occupy. he has written dozens of books ranging from tibetan documents and even to neuro science and he is poplar to all kinds of people. host the beginning of the video said we provide for them by low cost commodity in china but our people have a rough time. >> guest: they are talking about the goods china sends abroad around the world. and he is self-conscious about the english he put on the video because it was tough, raw and he was doing it in a rush and he sent it out and it was a hit

before he could fix that. we would not have the life we enjoy if we didn't have low-cost work in china but the standard of living in china is 1/6 of the living in the west. and people realize we work hard, we are participating in the global economy and play by the rules in some cases, but we are not enjoying the quality of life in the west. what i think it is interesting is for most of chinese history people had no idea what life was like outside. this gets back from the tour of europe. chinese people can sit on a village and have an accurate standing of what it feels like to live in washington, d.c. and

get an image of that. >> host: one more clip from the movie and we will move to other stuff stuff stuff:

>> host: thanks to all of the western media, their behavior had educated a whole generation of young chinese. >> guest: what they were responding to was there has been a series of clips they found on western television which people made mistakes. they identified a protest in napal as being a protest in tibet and they would say these are nupoly police officers. the reason this matters and they fixated on it is because they found evidence of an embedded antipathy toward chin sona. this was about getting into great schools, jobs and successful young professors. and they had discovered their

image of china, this country that had given them all of this opportunity wasn't the image they had abroad. we folked on political culture, abuses of human rights, and failure of rule of law and in that difference and discovery and disappointment was enormous energy released that at moment. so when they say they thanked the organizations, i know a lot of the young people go online and jump the wall and get outside of the filters the chinese government put on the internet and rely and take tried in their curiosity to fair out the information. but when they went online and found that some of the depictions of china were not accurate in their minds, that was in a sense humiliating because it said the western news

organizations we put our faith in and allowed ourselves to believe in didn't live up to our expectations. so i think the nationalist uprising and there will be more, there will be moments when the chinese public rise up to oppose what they see as the west's mistreatment of china and we need to expect that. one thing that is key is so many of the young people who talk about nationalism and stand up in defense of the communist part oh or china. they are doing this because it is the available vocab for them. you are allowed to go out into the street and say down with japan for its crimes or down with the united states for its restraint of china's rise. but you cannot go out in the street and say i am frustrated because i cannot get the job i

thought i would have when i paid for this expensive college education and i am frustrated that i cannot by a house or i am frustrated by environmental pollution. >> host: check the numbers and the latest number i could find is as many as 200,000 chinese students in the united states. explain that. they have ccensors on the internet but they have the largest number of students here. why do they do that? >> guest: there is a recognition they cannot afford to cut themselves off on the divdened for people that go abroad.

whau when you open the window, mosquitos can fly in is a quote they say and he is willing to accept the idea they may pick up ideas like appeal for democracy but the reality is complicated. i have gotten to know a number of young chinese students who go over seas and when they are overseas they are more patriotic and defensive. you can imagine why you feel out of sorts and here people talking about china saying it is my responsibility to stand up for it. that is part of it. >> host: we found these chinese students talk about the united states and the democracy. see what you think. >> it might not suit china. maybe china will evolve.

>> i think the most whitty and tricky thing about the european government is they put personal liberty at its rein. >> is it cute. the americans picture american soldier on the street in iraq as saving iraqi people from hell. and i think whenever there is a dictatorship as someone calls it the united states thinks it is their job to save those people. and they have not realized that a democracy is an absolute value in the united states but it might not be that absolute in other countries. >> host: how much do the young people want democracy and do they know what it is. >> guest: the word itself is toxic because it has been

identified as a threat to the gains the chinese people have made over the course of the generation. so if you ask people what they think of the democracy you will get very few saying they think that is a terrific idea for china. but the ideas we consider to be especisential to an open societe in demand. rule of law. the ability to go in and pursue an issue in court. this didn't matter 40 years ago with people had no property. they bought a house, they bought a car, if someone is able to abuse their own power in order to take that away, that inspired in people an urgent respect for the institutions that the help you. you heard we want rule of law. it has been decoupled from the specific democratic objective as we think of as so intrinsic to our culture.

but the other thing they think of is justice. if you ask people in china if they think the system delivers justice and you ask the young people in the video i think you would have -- there would be a long pause because what they know is there is not justice right now for vast numbers of people. this is why we see unrest on the chinese streets. the numbers are remarkable. the chinese today contend with 180,000 acts of civil unrest acts a day. and people are not doing that because it is a convenient solution. in fact, it is dangerous to take to the streets. they are doing it because they have deep grieveiances about how it is that the system is going to protect what they acquired. chinese people have worked hard over the last 40 years, and the years before that, as they

figure out what they need in the society to protect themselves. the first answer isn't democracy, we need a court system, accountability system to maintain supervision on the leadership so that people with low and mid level party officials are not able to take advantage. >> host: over at the museum here, some time back, there was an exhibit with him and a movie we will show you a little bit of. do you know the creatocreator? >> guest: i do. he is an artist that does sculpture and video and spent time as a portrait painter on the streets of new york. his background is important. he is the son of china's most

famous poet who was beloved by the party and cast out and sent to internal exile in the reaches of the country where he was sent to clean toilets. he grew up in an environment and saw clearly what happened when you put yourself on the ending end of the political target in china. >> host: you can see his strong feelings in this and i will ask you about it. >> there are moments and periods that allow a voice to change the way people think. >> they call him holy eye online or eye god. >> it is like venus. the degioiaed -- god of love. >> they consider him a god.

>> guest: that is a dangerous description in china. they have the power to stop the dictatorship. >> the governor can change china. >> among all of the chinese artist i know he is probably the only one who deep down really cares about this country and what happens to it. the americans -- >> the communication to make people believe in the ideas. >> host: what did you see there? you were in it.

>> guest: over the course of last six years, he has become the face of a certain kind of erascible energy in china which is this belief that people individually deserve the chance to define what they think is cool and matters and politically important. in practical terms, in 2008, his life changed substantially. he had an intense relationship with the government hired to be an architect on the bird's nest stadium for the olympics. and in the course of the process, we concluded something was wrong about the way china was going about its production of the olympics and believed it was becoming an advertisement

for the government and he was describing the internal troubles and justice wasn't delivered in a way he thought was meaningful. over the course of the next few years his relationship detearated to the point he was arrest. he was held on what they called tax charges. but the government was clear to the state-run media as being out of step with the mainstream and they put himself a part from the people and ahead of the people and they accused him of things they did during the cultural revolution. people in the chinese middle class looked at him saying he is nothing like us because he spokee english and comes from

this background and he is able to speak his mind because he knows no one will harm him. there was another pocket. he was a creature of the internet and spend all day and all day online. probably 11 hours a day sitting on the internet highest -- he told me. and in his message about individual dignity they found something powerful. he did a project that was remarkable and got a lot of attention in europe and the united states was he commissioned the creation of 200 million of these tiny ceramic

figures. he would had about two thousand when i met him. i said what are you doing with them? and he said i have no idea but each one was painted differently. it is like the tera cotta warriors with each having a different face. you have the people looking the same when you look at them from far away but each one is different and worthy of respect. and this became this iconic image in chain sonia -- china -- and people started saying send me a seed or spraypainting them around china. so he was a threat, you could say to the government, not because he would undermine the

chinese government but the fact is what he represented, which was a personal electricity and power of the individual mind was very unsettling and for that reason he had to be curtailed. >> host: i want to ask you to be short about this because there is too many. you have all kind of characters and we mentioned a couple. who is michael? >> michael probably taught me more about china more than anyone else. michael was the name he chose for himself. he is the son of a coal minor and worked as a security guard on the edge of the english learning camp. he worked as a security gad because he could not go to the camp to learn english himicism.

he was desperate. high no longer wouldnanted to b son of the coal minor. language was about self creation and it took over his life and almost became a religion. china has no state religion or single dominant faith. it has the opportunity for people to chose what matters and for him english was everything. he would wake up in the middle of the night and read english and practice in front of the mirer. -- mirror -- he said just because i was born to a poor family, and why should i be like everybody else? and that was a rejection of

conformity. it was this idea that just simply by the fact of being who he was that he had a right to strive. to be ambitious as reflected in the title. >> host: who was the street sweeper? >> guest: that is someone i met at the tail end of china and was a revelation for me. in the neighborhood i lived in -- >> host: what did they call the neighborhood? >> guest: hoo-tong. it was called the ally of national studies and it was a grand term for this little tiny one-way street. it was called that because it was in the heart of this historical area meaning the history of philosophy and idea and next to the lama temple and

the confucious temple. >> host: didn't you say there was music all day long? >> ho >> guest: it is a 700 year old pavilion. it was silent when we moved in. it was like living back up against the edge of a great cathedral. and one day out of nowhere a speaker crackled to life inside the temple and they were resighting confusion lines from the classic. the great old confucian philosophy and it played again and then after hour after that.

i thought it might be a festival but it became an all-day afire fair. the government realized they were in need of a state philosophy and something they could hold on to. there was no organized religion in any way, well there is, but for the sake of discussion, they didn't see itself as a society like that anymore but they had they have a great tradition. so confucius was revived and the temp was active and tour groups were going through and being taught how it pray. >> reporter: did you work in the house all of the time? >> i did. i had to get used to this sound of the confucian philosophy and

i asked my neighbor once, we were chatting about it, and he had do you hear it in your house. and he said it is driving me nuts. he run as scrap yard. and he said you know, you should go complain about it. and i said why me? and he said you are a foreigner so they will listen to you. >> host: going bangladesh -- back to the street sweeper. >> >> guest: all day long they would go along and sweep up the streets. one day i cause standing out the talking the dpi who runs the scrap regard and one of the sweepers came up to us and said you have see on the face of that rock is the face of the emperor. and we said what?

and he spoke with a strong proventional accident and john said come back if you lunch to speak proper dialect. and i talked to the sweeper and they said people don't respect me thinking i have no education or culture but i am a poet and super king of couplets. if you go online you will find information about me. i run a forum about modern chinese poetry. i went online, looked them up and he was different. he was in his late '50s, and wore an outside that set him a part from others. but he had an entire inner life that wads impossible.

he had found people all over china. people in far away places who had take an interest and found inspiring things. some of it was great and some was wonderful and thrilling. it was terrific to imagine this person who had no idea how to identify with the community had found that for himself and created a world for himself and that was was one thof depining facts in the book and that is the internet awakened people the sense of ambition that kwlouk go out and define watt you want to be. >> host: who is lin e food? >> guest: he started his life as

l jung and he started in taiwan and they were at war and had been since the loosing side fled to tie taiwan. he was a starr in the taiwan army and posted this sensitive point which was an island chose to the china's island. americ americans would have recognized it because it was the light house of the free world. at this point when he got there, they were not fighting. he said i need to go to mainland china if i am going to make an

imprint. and even making contact with china was illegal at this point. so the idea you can imagine a future in china was a radical idea. and he said if i am going it make something from the world, i need fooget to china and he deflected the army and swam tattered cover book store mainland. it was dangerous he would be caught on sight ortroid as trailer if they chose to. >> host: how many times did you speak with him? >> guest: i have spoke with him several times. he changed his maim once getting here but now he is the chief economist of the world bank. he, for me, his life was a

metaphor and said i am changing everything. he left his wife and children behind in taiwan but they did reuni reunite. he went to the university of chicago, the heart land of free throw marketing thinks. he move up to the ranks but could never get up to the top because people wondered if he was a spy because he made this ad deflective to the mainland. long story shot, he became the most ardent spokesperson for the county. >> host: this is just the scene of the trainck that happened. you write about the train wreck and just remind the oddance what it looked like.

it is on the screen right now. when did this happen? and why did you write about this? >> is the summer of 2011, is when the train wreck happenit a important moment. china has built more high-speed rail than the rest of the world combined and continues to pend an enormous network across the country. for years they were viewed as backward and triballing on a chinize train is not someone you want to do. ,000 they built this triumph and were proud of it. in the summer of 2011, two trains collided and we are seeing one of them, in pact, part of the train fell off of an overpass near the city of wind

joe in eastern china. it became a simple for the frustration of many people in ch china. in order to buy a ticket you have to have money. people were proud, one of the young women wrote in the text before a friend and said i feel like i am flying home we are moving so fast. and when this train, these two trained collided, it became a grand symbol of

>> >> he was a walking manifestation. they called him a great leap leo because he had such ideas of what was possible. >> we are out of time there is so much we have not talked about. the name of the book is a judge in addition. you are in washington now. how long to expect to stay here with "the new yorker"? in it we will be here a few years because it takes awhile to find your way around.

>> we're out of time. >> thank you brian.

[inaudible conversations]

>> 8q everybody for joining us today. i am very pleased to see you here. >> the key for sponsoring this briefing end today we are here at a very important time for the united states, for europe with the of p5 plus one countries as well as iran. after 25 years venomous said mitchell of the hostility and the threat of war and threat of not a constraint constraint, we are sitting at the cusp of a potential nuclear deal it as we seek foreign minister's letter gathered in vienna to

hopefully hammer out what will be a final nuclear agreement between iran and p5 plus one to ensure it does not develop nuclear weapons and with 6 inches under crippling karan's economy. as we go into this pivotal weekend for what may or may not be announced, there are several important dynamics to what a deal may entail. not all of these are discussed as much as they should be. there is the congressional dynamic, but as well as the forces inside iran. how will that play out? then there is the regional dynamics what does the

nuclear agreement made for the middle east for those challenges that confront united states as well as iran? how will this impact those challenges? and finally the economic component. it is not talked about very much what will of the deal and reentry into energy market what does that mean for the united states economy? >> we know our rea benefits from a sanction relief there is significant benefits for the economies of to discuss these issues we have the best experts to talk about these issues. we have the president of the

council and author of two books and he will be discussing the political element. next had suzanne and she has been involved many years now and engaged directly with their radian side and she is part of the initiative from the new america foundation and recently authored a piece of our foreign policy discussing with the region looks like one year after. an article that got a lot of attention in the hope to expand on those topics today. then rehabed david hale a chicago-based economist from

the economics and recently wrote discussing potential economic benefits of the deal how i ran three entry into international energy markets be the equivalent of $400 billion tax cut for when they could benefit from an action. so first of all, give it to david to talk about the benefits. >> those economic sanctions that is suffering from weak have major consequences. iran could probably increase

help but -- output by widely barrels a day at a time and then to generate a $400 billion tax cut japan, india, western europe even though we produce a lot more we could still import because our demand is so great. for every $10 decline can boost global growth. this is time of deficits with the major budget problems for the other oil-producing countries have problems with those

geopolitical consequences the russia right now get 60 percent of its exports of oil and gas. 45% of tax receipts from oil set would be a major fiscal shot -- shock when it declined $85 of beryl the finance ministers said publicly we cannot afford to increase spending if oil prices keep declining. it would put the russian economy into a bad recession. with prices fell when it is $40 a barrel to $48 a barrel

at the time of the global financial crisis. curley ready a fiscal deficit of 18 percent gdp but that number could move in this venezuelan bank would have to fund the government at that point to save the risk of oil subsidies now right now with 2.$2 billion to build low-cost rail to cuba, nicaragua and other countries of the west indies if we have the price scale all programs would be at risk the third great benefit would be the iranian economy itself. it has 80 million people the ppp adjusted gdp is 1.2

trillion dollars. iran it actually has large resources with huge oil reserves so that output going back a 2.2 million barrels a tivoli's alito a three-year 4 million barrels over the next five years. even the copper reserves with the largest iron ore reserves. and of course, in a factory industry. that i could see western investment for business across the board but also has a capitalization of 100 and $50 billion.

at the current time for investors don't 0.1% of the stock market. the turkish stock market is 50 per cent foreign-owned if we end the sanctions with this stock market is a rush of the new boom made possible. in the fact that it tracks foreign investment straight in the hands of reformers of the hard-liners. the revolutionary guard does not want to deal as a make money smuggling their repeople go that. don't like the fact they have the pariah states that is why they voted for rodney as president their way to end this session is to open

of the economy to get the message of globalization after that it would reinforce the process. fake you very much. >> thanks to the congressman for helping us to organize this and also to the national iranian american council for your leadership for another meeting issues that matter to reid and americans. many thanks to all of you for joining us today what arguably is not only the biggest foreign policy challenge but the biggest foreign policy opportunities facing our country today. u.s. diplomats are in vienna working tirelessly to reach an agreement by november

november 24th but also avoid a war in the middle east. i've been asked to make brief remarks on the proliferation of benefits above prospective nuclear deal i think we should recognize the interim agreement the joint plan of action reached by a the p5 plus one group and iran in 2013 almost one year to the day has resulted in key and important progress for the counter proliferation goals. first-ever in has seized uranium enrichment at that level is easier to what denies and since the agreement went into effected has had enriched uranium over 5%.

it is eliminating the entire stockpile a 20% which is often noted because it could quickly be purified to the weapons-grade. has refrained from advancing of the construction and in the history of the nuclear nonproliferation effort -- a proliferation treaty. so is it the implementation of the agreement to verify the compliance with a compliance since the deal was implemented last january.

so it has stopped the development of the nuclear program and for a diplomatic solution. for a final agreement would retain all of the limitations of the iran nuclear program that i just described. but negotiations are ongoing the final elements are of a noted is hard to predict at this stage. but there is widespread agreement that they're general contours of the good deal would establish verifiable limits on iran's program that taken together would limit the size of the stockpiles and the number of centrifuge that iran could keep that this nomination would leave approximately one year away from producing

the enough highly enriched uranium for the bob. for research and development and modification to the heavy water reactor to make sure it is no longer capable for the plutonium necessary to make a nuclear weapon. into these counter proliferation benefits with the nuclear weapons and would result in another key benefit in the arms race also the global non-proliferation system the npt to the nuclear disarmament.

and the peaceful use of the nuclear energy to provide the a big boost in the lead up to that. and to disclose asian and hostilities with the ongoing nuclear talks with the p5 plus one context have provided the united states with the diplomats with those bilateral communications for the first time in over three decades. with that taboo is days ago and again when for diplomacy. it is finally tested in the initial results are promising. reaching a comprehensive deal could unlock a challenge for broader

discussions between both countries on issues were both have compelling common interests particularly in the middle east and south asia. if such a deal is reached and the iea ada should continue the way for washington to engage on to security prior days that they hold in common purpose of the first is the fight against the islamic state in syria and iraq and second is stabilizing their government in afghanistan poses a risk of explicitly stated in a nuclear deal must be completed before direct bilateral coordination on these issues can take place. but since 2014 between

washington and tehran with the p5 plus one nuclear talks iraqi government is acting as intermediary to facilitate communications we could expect these to assess -- discussions to direct the bilateral talks this could provide an opening for coordination and cooperation in bet with the fighting as isis. u.s. officials have already acknowledged that iran has influence to convince maliki to step down. this led to us in this transition. the leading united states to

be a better position to press the reagan to share more power this adult to approve a fragile situation in represented by the baghdad government's but vitiates. >> to play a constructive role for a situation to syria. it would be meaningless. washington could support iran's participation in the geneva three gathering at organized under the auspices of the united nations. within this context to press

iran to play a role in the humanitarian crisis particularly by a humanitarian access. is not clear at this point how far to run would go to bring about political settlements that indeed to the departure of a side. but once iran has a seat at the table it will be forced to show the cards rather quickly. with this plan is the cease-fire the formation of national unity government constitutional revision process with a new election that offers a good starting point for discussion. clearly there are strong

overlapping interest in afghanistan. and nuclear deal combined with the presence in afghanistan would set the stage and then under the president's with the full implementation to the strengthening of the institution. also the capable afghan security force with the effective strategy for narco trafficking. washington and should set as a high priority a developing coalition of countries to support afghanistan's

transition to a renewed leadership and then to insure the territorial integrity and economic growth of afghanistan. to support afghanistans transition makes a great deal of sense. those countries worked together with a transitional government following 9/11. i presented to areas there is a difficult and overlapping of security interest. however i want to of this size i am not suggesting fallaway a nuclear deal lot makers are suddenly going to

join hands touse saying. even with a nuclear deal profound differences will basis between iran and the united states. and it will likely support designated terrorist groups enabled the of proxy and the nuclear deal to heighten concern among the gulf states to feel more vulnerable to iranian pressure. all this makes it difficult for the united states to pursue a more strategic relationship. what i have outlined is a potential for the calculated engagement of specific key issues where washington holds compelling interest to a nuclear deal to open the way for cooperation for tactical objectives that

would serve to a dance u.s. security interests. so just to conclude to prevent a nuclear arms to iran to avoid a military confrontation is vitally important. i am happy that you organized this discussion because we need to take a bigger view and when redo it is clear to unlock the channel for a broader dialogue on issues where revolt, interest is also an enormous achievement. >> thanks to all of you give the room and all of you often c-span. one is the impact of the

potential deal on the politics as well as the civil-rights situation as well as the consequences and implications of the failure to get it deal. i thought the presentation is extremely important because it touches on that important aspect that has been completely overlooked of the economic implications. in july we released a report that calculated using the gravity bottle the cost of sanctions. lot of conversation how much it has cost the economy and also on the sanctions. the report shows united states has lost the trade 1305 and $175 billion very conservative estimates on

the loss of export revenue. that number is likely a much higher with export revenue and it is a large amounts because that amounts to approximately 1 million lost job opportunities based on the government's calculations. i strongly encourage you to take a look. the consequences of the deal is very important at the end of the day it was never just about enrichment or a centrifuge. what this deal will do is define who will determine the policy of iran for the next decade to come? hard-liners which is of a deer died with his rhetoric

for moderates? this deal will determine their political future for the next decade or two to have significant implications on the region and also implications what happens inside of iraq. as a result they recognize they cannot open the world without entering -- assuring the human-rights. we have not seen any noticeable change it remains negative but if you listen to the human rights defenders on the ground they support said deal because it

reduces is animosity to give those internal actors push for more respect for human rights greater space to do with all they they can't do. nobody can do this for them but they need that extra space it is next to a costabile to have a successful campaign as well as greater respect for human rights under the circumstances as well as crippling sanctions and has caused so much damage they care far less about human-rights and more about the day to day ability to survive economics. they need this to make their case. beyond that it will open opportunities for long-term political change it and iran because if you have a

scenario where a companies have the ability to cut into iran imagine if 1994 united states did not impose sanctions and by 2009 you would have a starbucks or a mcdonald's it you would have been a busy and americans and american companies. du think his ability post fraudulent elections would be more or less? without any americans. the u.s. ability to have the impact on what happens post 2009 elections was close at

20 to give an opportunity to change that to move iran and the right direction. is very much depends how the deal collapses. it doesn't reach said deal then it is difficult to predict exactly which way it will go. how the deal collapses will determine who will get the blame. and into a very different consequences. the countries of p5 plus one divers and russia as china or europe put their signature on this agreement.

to the u.s. congress either sabotages directly or doesn't implement the obligations that has the effect to break the international consensus built by the obama administration said that is the fault is on the area inside and the community works close together without a certificate division to get an agreement in which they cannot split if you have a scenario that they all agree to a deal but the u.s. congress does not that it will shift to the blame of the west and the consequence is you will see the sanctions regime slowly but surely falling apart

because many countries reluctantly agreed to the sanctions and they have paid a heavy price for our image and our city from july the cost of sanctions to u.s. economy for the europeans has been more than twice between 2010 and 2012 the u.s. has lot of lot of -- lost a lot of revenue. if the deal is struck but then collapses as a result then you will see the sanctions regime collapsed in as the pretext of the constraints in iridescence to get relief without having

any constraints feet carefully because the biggest benefactor is the hard lighters because they don't want the constraint on the nuclear program. this would provide essential relief and i will stop there >> before we get into a follow-up it is beneficial to talk about this state of play today so talk of little bit of the gaps remaining and what we would expect if there will be of a deal on monday? >> the press is reporting will love all of the

enrichment to have the centrifuge of the one hand and the process and the timing of the sanctions to correspond to that. the third is the duration of the deal. is remarkable throughout the whole process their very few leaks about what is going to be discussed by the negotiators. that conveys the seriousness that the country's push it toward the effort. if we see an announcement by november 24 we could see something of a couple of days later and whether not it is the full deal or

another interim agreement or a partial deal to outline going forward all hope they could conclude the final comprehensive deal but realistically a partial deal at this stage that is the current restriction on the iran program which by the way to about two very limited sanctions relief is for the p5 plus one. i do not see a complete breakdown of these negotiations so we either get a big announcement next week or something partial. >> it seems every utterance is now examine to get clues

and the truth is there is a lot of speculation but it is a tightly controlled process but it does seem there is increased flexibility some of the areas where p5 plus one did not seem eager but some of those have broken down that shows indications of movement. to you agree with that? >> it means you go to the last possible minute but as we have heard the iranians have come up from that opening bid of 1500 to something around 4500. i'm sorry it is the opposite. that would be something. the iranians have come down

at 8,000. and apparently they have offered to deal with a resulting stockpile that would allow them to have more centrifuge so it is fluid with all negotiations. >> to save the atmosphere is cordial but constantly looking over their shoulders but it shows the reaction in backhaul clearly the president has issues when it comes to a convincing congress and which is the support without collapsing

and the iranians have as a mother problem that they will try to do everything they can because it is too costly if they are blamed the blood to be sure it is not a political win two major it is a political decision but for them to have it deal at all the distinctions relief there relatively quickly adds a benefit so the criticism from the hard-liners that people are sensing tangible benefits but to lift those sanctions is not something that they're willing to offer or may not be able to

offer and that shows how they can be a tremendous leverage they could turn into an obstacle if you don't have enough control in the swift manner as part of the negotiation this is where congress has moved away from a highly effective good cop bad cop this destructive. >> so talked-about oil dropping to 50 or $60 a barrel. you say some losers could be russia or venezuela. what is the impact on the regional players?

how does that impact isil that profits of of smuggling? >> isil does make money by smuggling. but saudi arabia and the gulf states have massive foreign exchange reserves but iraq relies on the international price exporting 2 million barrels right now so iraq could be vulnerable as well but there could be a lot of letters. the ap did you did and u.s. i could see gas lead prices going at 230 or 240 right now just under $3 but if we

did have a major shock recheck gasoline prices fall further and that would be politically appetizing. >> could you repeat that? >> gasoline prices could drop further if we drove the a global price down a $55 a barrel we already saw 115 it is now over 80. that is $30 it has taken about 60 or $0.70. now we are a bit below three so if we have a further drop that could drive the price down so it is said 330 or 340. >> that has reverberations.

>> of course, . the price decline we have already had is increasing average income of $50 that is not a lot of money for someone who is wealthy but it will help to give the good christmas when people can spend this money. >> this is why they time their rights before black friday. [laughter] >> because we're on the hill one of the major considerations is congress' response where there is said deal some say the united states can impose sanctions and iran would not walk away is in such dire straits it

would remain at the table. what do you think? would it sit there and allow sanctions imposed whole to be imposed? >> i think it could lead to a collapse would be difficult for the iranian negotiators to continue their job when the boss is back home are suffering more seditious they will not stand for that they will feel compelled and clearly the easy thing to do is pullout of the negotiations but beyond that look at the upcoming budget with they have pledged in that does not included a sanction relief so they are proceeding with what they

call a persisted a cautery so for their economic planning they have not factor did what sink actions so that gives an idea what they're willing to do to get you the deal that they think is fair. as for congress keep in mind the rees said these negotiations have happened is because it has levirate -- leveraged sanctions and their other factors when they dropped the regime change language and the united states had some level of enrichment to be acceptable but make no doubt congress played an important role in that that at this point well there at such a

critical moment would simply a undermine the united states position and i just down see when we're so close with a good deal of what is close at hand. so now the thought to undercut the implements is not the time to think about this. >> to you have thoughts about the importance of congress? we know the sanctions cannot be lifted without an act of congress the president plans to use authority to temporarily suspend the sanction there is talk about if congress sends bills in

disapproval that that could have the psychological effect companies and banks unwilling for those trade sanctions to be forthcoming. what about the role of congress? >> it will depend how people perceive the sanctions using his own authority. but it may be hard for them to realize that price of gasoline is very popular. but if congress passed to enact this i do think said danger in then you get a

boom in the iranian trade and investment. and then with the trade opportunity. so there is pressure to end sanctions. to renegotiate an entry into the market if they have the lines of a good deal. but all measures of reciprocity of proportionality that means a

permanent concession for what it is reversible and has to be matched something that is equally permit. waivers that last only 90 days is fundamentally that has a risk to cause the iranians to only put on something at the table that is irreversible and attractive. based on what they were willing to put on the table there was of willingness to

be flexible to go far and that is part of the reason with something that we have seen acceptable on the american side. >> correct me if i am wrong but one of the components is the implementation of the additional protocol? that would require would that be something tied to reciprocal actions by united states congress? to voluntarily implement

stops because the deal falls apart. but that would require action by the parliament is similar to the political wind that is blowing their. >> now will open to audience questions raise your hand. we have a microphone. >> earlier this month obama ascent of a letter asking for formal coordination and against isis but that offer has been rebuffed as part of a separate negotiation it

does seem like it would be a great opportunity. >> as that letter then rebuffed? but what could potentially? >> that was my first point we don't know what was in the letter it was a private letter from obama to the supreme leader. even though certain reporters seem to think he knew what was in the letter i doubt he did. this is not news for years now iran and u.s. seven machine chain letters there was a phone call between obama and romney. -- i would not venture to guess what was in the letter

it would seem that obama would be so explicit into the supreme leader to offer coordination on isis especially to talk about things discreetly. but looking ahead that nuclear deal to have it implemented it is the first area where iran could start working with the u.s.. both the militaries are now operating in that area and it is the height the responsibility not to coordinate with each other. >> we don't know what is on the letter but it was not an

offer of working together and it opens up the opportunity for potential collaboration. we don't know what the response at this crucial moment in addition not be surprising but at this stage the willingness to trust the deal to take the risk to say yes, which is something the u.s. and iran have done with each other come it is easier to save note has come to a test so to signal the willingness to sending a letter had that calculation

to prove but now it is time for iran to also be serious. >> three or four letters sent what about on syria? but iran has not participated in the geneva conferences with the information in with that background and then including iran and the process? >> with that background noise with that will tie

lateral group and i can understand the political difficulties include the area and at that point but i do think most of come to the conclusion that a political settlement cannot be reached without participation and in some way but the geneva process is the right forum for the u.s. to be engaging on the subject and it could actually happen before the new deal is completed. but signals from iran on this issue, to put forward

the 4.plan and it closely matches will we have been hearing what they said about what needed to be done to reach us settlement. in there is a lot of overlap but that i read the main concern is the position as mr. aside their want to see a strategy that their concern that they conveyed to the united states that there is a big power vacuum what could replace it is worse this is right for a discussion and other key players.

>> with the onset of physis your of those here in the u.s. that the civil war has produced this but everyone says this demonstrates what it could mean for syria. dc garett is a complete difference from how it originated? >> there is a big difference how did averred your come about? both were maybe not caught off guard but did not see the destruction in that isis posed.

so to trace that origin from iraq the emergence of around colicky to put toward a government. but the attitude dispense of food did what to whom so i am hoping cooler heads will prevail with what a political settlement could look like.

. . if that larger hostility is significantly reduced as a result of the nuclear deal that is when you will see an opportunity for the common interest that way much heavier than the hostilities and provide the opportunity to utilize that. whether it's in iraq