is it all that opec decision, not just this meeting, but the next year and two years? >> i will call johns hopkins. question a nuclear power. some industry people would contend that the prospect of smr, small modular reactor could give a positive signal is to the industry because of it be cheaper, shorter instruction times, et cetera appeared none

of these have been licensed so far. curious how did you treat that issue in going forward? >> in europe, we have today a significant amount opposite of poland, germany, france, u.k. but we cannot expect to in the next 10 years it will bring a major contribution to that supply. having said that, if it starts to work very hard and if it gets rid of the dogmatic barriers we have in front of us, not to make use, it it may well help us at least two the european production and as such could he an important factor in improving

the competitors of europe. this will not be enough to cause the gap between europe and the united states, but it can definitely be helpful in terms of narrowing the gap and also put forward the gas security of europe. nuclear energy in china is definitely one of the most important push that china past and his energy history when we look at our numbers. china is making a lot of efforts on efficiency, i'm renewables. but the nuclear numbers are very coming very impressive, which means half of the growth in the global nuclear capacity will come only from china. this reminds me that china between the mid-1980s and 1990s in terms of time brought

close to half a billion people people -- [inaudible] but there is a big collective action. at the same level, it will be very important for reducing the share of call in the chinese power. it will be very good for reducing co2 emissions and it will be an important nuclear power in terms of nuclear capacity, china will overtake the united states as number one nuclear power. so ss, i think the chinese emerges as a major nuclear power producer in redefining a nuclear landscape into the other countries do not change their policies. the other question what do we

expect from the next opec meeting is a question that i will not be able to comment. but i can sell you the following. shale oil from the united states, the dollar extremely important developments in the hydrocarbon sector come in revolution in nature and provide a lot of comfort for many people as such they are very coming very for change. however, i would highlight that we will forget that even these few success stories, we will still need middle east oil in the future. i think we should therefore view the current investment issues in middle east from that angle. the big numbers we are seeing

today, also tomorrow and this is very important to put in a. fmr is our impertinence give in the growing appetite of many emerging countries who cannot finance the nuclear power plants, but we need to see the visibility from one country to another. but a man so play an important role in the emerging countries for the finances limited, and the natural resources. >> let's take a couple more questions. one marks ground. one deck they are, one over here. yeah, nina pardoner, strategy international. just reacting to something you just said, how do you square

that will issue you with the degrees centigrade target? i don't see how you can square that all. >> okay, question over here. [inaudible] >> because your microphone was anon, a question about gas prices in asia. >> how certain are you or confident are you that co2 is the most important -- how confident are you the other gaseous pollutants are contributing to global warming?

>> as you describe, and they do emit more emissions -- this is true. if you put them -- if you put it in a context how much of an issue and that co2, the differences really, really very limited. i will tell you the numbers. an hour for, we expected it to increase about three per day. if you missed them this will come from average commercial oil

somewhere else. the difference of additional co2 is equal to not even one day of emissions at china the entire year. very small additional co2 emissions. yes, there is an increase they are, but is very, very small. and if you want to see if playable for energy security or something else, then we have to find a way to combat the nations of carbon captures to efficiency and renewables to other technologies. i didn't say that it will not be a crisis, both should expect

that it would be u.s. prices everywhere. it is a downward pressure if it comes there, but we shouldn't also forget the building and therefore it is fixed income is $70. it will be very much fire for a wealthy have in the united states today. but the usps is definitely to provide some flexibility in the markets in asia. it would also bring downward drescher under the prices. methane is another gas and there are many others. coc talking about the energy

sector. co2 is one of the most important task is to be delivered in math and and is the reason more of the emissions coming from the united sector. by further methane, there are many that plot device have to reduce them and it is easier to fix to be honest with you through some technical regulatory measures. >> okay. well, i think we've come to the end of our time. i want to think fatih birol for being here. now, given your description of retirement and the power generation site here, we know there is no risk of the retiring anytime soon. so we will hope to see you again here sometime soon in the very near future.

thank you for the ex-lover that you bring to the broader energy discussion. i want to thank andy hudson on our team for putting together his today's event. please join me in thanking fatih. [applause] [inaudible conversations] ..

>> and will tend to volunteer when we know we need to. we tend to do that kind of thing. we tend to seth rogen take responsibility when times are hard. i will tell you right now i think this is that moment in america. we just look around and we instinctively know we have to change the concept of citizenship. if we go to many people in america we think of the vote and pay taxes, they did their job as a citizen. that is not what citizenship is. a citizen is no more than a covenant between the people who decide they to be a nation ship in the people who have the responsibility to win for each other. that is what citizens are. they are jointly bound to take care of each other. so the concept of citizenship instead of being small and being a sap either of entitlement or

limited responsibilities really as expansive as what you are and what you are about and why you do or don't do what you do. i think citizenship in america has eroded for lots of reasons, but it has eroded to the point where we need to stop and look at the real problem. we can look at partisanship and politics. they can look at economic inequality. we can look at the polarization of different parts of our society. but if we really look at the problem and we want to fix that instead of going after each individual thing and if we want to take a big step, it is going to take a big idea.

>> as much as we have accomplished in 36 years and i don't want to look back at that so much as to look forward to the next couple of months. in the next couple of months there is a couple things i would like to do. one is to get my defense authorization bill passed. this is an annual affair, a major effort involving large amounts of staff. i also finished up some work on the subcommittee on investigations, looking at some gimmicks, which are used to avoid taxes. >> i've been a member of congress for 34 years. you finally get the period as i was a manager for a baseball or football team and i had 34 and one i would be in the hall of fame. and really it didn't bother me

to get beat because i wasn't just that i'm going, but i had 18 cochairmen who were chairman of the 18 candidates in my district that were supporting me and wanted me to run. and i did. >> brian michael jenkins says that the 11120 americans and 2000 europeans have tried to join fighting in the area. a panel of middle east experts

look at middle east conflict, the isis threat to the u.s.a. by westerns are joining isis. [inaudible conversations] >> okay, good afternoon, everyone. hope you're having a good day. i direct print center for middle east public policy or as they call it here, cnet. our center focus on middle east from across the rand corporation. we focus on the pricing socio- economic challenges facing the region. today the region is at a critical juncture. the panel you are about to hear from are going to be discussing the really complex challenges that were facing in the region. but i wanted to note that our center here at rand, we also focus on longer-term solutions to some of the underlying issues generating so much of the violence today. that is why we focus on issues like education for syrian

refugee children, which is one of the greatest displacement crises in the globe today. we focus on the critical question of youth unemployment in regions like the middle east. in our view, if we don't tackle these kinds of long-term challenges, we are going to continue to see the cycle of violence that generates threats rather than opportunities from this region. so it is my pleasure to introduce these distinguished panelists behind me and they are going to be expanding on some of these challenges, but i hope also finding opportunities as well. we'll see. i can't really attest to their expertise and knowledge in contribution to land on a regular basis. i work with them all frequently. maturin is karen elliott house, former publisher of "the wall street journal," former vice president at dow jones & co. come a recipient of the 1984 pulitzer prize in international reporting further coverage on the middle east.

and she is also the author of a very well noted book on saudi arabia, people pass religion, falklands and future, which i believe is outside the doors here. she currently serves as chair of the board of trustees. next to karen and brian michael jenkins, senior adviser and should the president of rand and who is considered to be the father of terrorism studies. all of these panels have a long record of publications, said they will promote books outside as well. ambassador james dobbins is a senior fellow and distinguished chair of diplomacy and security at the rand corporation. he most recently served as director of the rand international security and defense policy center. last but not least, we have sat jones, who now direct international security and defense policy center at the rand corporation. he served as a representative to the commander u.s. special operations command to the assistant secretary of defense for special operations.

so please, let's all welcome them to the board. [applause] >> thank you, thalia. excuse me. i feel like i am turning my back on all of you they are. we are in a time in my 30 years, 30 plus years at least of going to the middle east where i think there are more activations, chaos and depression than i can ever remember. we will try to focus on some opportunities. i hope my colleagues will have sown. it is really an honor to be to get to moderate this panel. i guess hrc here, but i would say this even if i weren't because i am a consumer of their product. these are really three of the best experts in america on this

topic. all of these divisions that are so actually listed in the little blurb on ms. arab persian sunni shia arab-israeli autocratic dictators versus demand for liberalism or fundamentalism, one or both, are not new. i mean, arab persian is older than islam. sunni shia is as old as the early days of his on. and even the jewish arab dispute is hardly news. so i would like to start by asking each of you to briefly say of days -- why is this set of what i would regard on some level as old issues such a toxic brew now. what has made a so divisive and

toxic? all of the elements have been there. >> there is a fundamental change in what we are seeing now and on some of the structures that were established centuries ago and during the week of world war i are coming apart and these artificial borders dissolve as some of these governments as autocratic governments have been removed. but we are seeing particularly in iraq and syria is we are seeking in a sense this same veneer of control that existed having been whipped off and all the things, to say this again. so we are seeing our country. the thing that makes it so

different for the united states is at one time these conflicts were seen for this country as distant conflicts. in the shadow of 9/11, they are somehow seen as having the ability to directly impact concerns about the fears that they might impact directly here in the united states has been certainly do as a justification. so things are coming apart. so it is not just fair. it affects us in a very, very direct way because there is no difference now between a frontline and a homefront. >> well, first of all i say it is kind of important to put what is going on in the little bit of respect. we've had a people's continuously since the end of

the second world war. in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, it was east asia in turmoil. half a dozen was going on, 100,000 american soldiers killed in two of those words. you had much larger numbers of civilian casualties and refugees than anything in the middle east today. in the 1980s, it was mostly latin america and africa appeared again, more than 24 is going on. you had more casualties number of refugees than anything we are seeing today. you've also had more terrorism. american planes are getting hijacked every few weeks for a while. americans were the held hostage and murdered in the middle east. american soldiers were being killed in several countries. american ambassadors were being killed in several countries. in the 1990s, it became the violence. we violence. we have four different international intervention is going on in the balkans in a 10 year period and the civil war in

bosnia was just a contentious in amalia and syria today. so what is different is nowadays the middle east. it's not asia, not africa, latin america, all of those places are relatively quiet. it is now the middle east. that is one difference. a second difference is the middle east is that i'm usually homogeneous life. you have a single dominant at the city, almost all areas. you have a single dominant language that almost all speak arabic. you have a single dominate religion and they were all part of a single country less than 100 years ago. instead of having half a dozen somewhat autonomous conflicts going on with a certain amount of contagion among them, you have what appears to be an upheaval and an entire civilization.

the conflict is much more cross-border, much more intense. it has several conflicting strands, the one you mentioned and so, that is one thing that makes it different. the second thing is the immediacy and intensity and volume as the media content. so americans would be killed and as journal brutal as a fashion in the 1980s. one poor man in a wheelchair was pushed overboard when a whole entire ship was hijacked. but there were videos that day. and if there had been videos, there were only three tv channels and none of them would have broadcast it. so those pictures never would've thought now. no one would've seen it. if you're reading this story, it doesn't have quite the immediacy of seeing mr. foley actually been beheaded in almost real time. so i think that also gives it a bit of immediacy. and of course 9/11 as a background also has indicated

they is much more brio and apparently more threatening for americans, although i would argue levels of terrorism are not as bad as they were in the night in 80s and the dangers are necessarily greater than those we saw. >> i would like to have a discussion on the threat level as soon as that gets through. >> he will undoubtably correct me. [laughter] >> i would probably say two issues are of interest and may be new and one is. brian alluded to earlier. we are seeing unprecedented levels of westerners travel to the middle east, particularly from europe to go fight in both syria and to a greater degree over the last several months in iraq. so there is a connection. when you add a dimension of social media, twitter, myspace,

youtube, facebook, a connection that we can make two homes in the united states that have encouraged people from denver, from florida to go fight in this area. the case of abu saleh is a very interesting one. there is a kid north of miami radicalize is here in the united states in florida, goes over to fight with the al qaeda affiliate in syria, comes back to the united states for six months. no one in the u.s. law-enforcement system realized that he'd gone to fight with al qaeda affiliate. the decision to blow themselves up. thankfully he does that there've rather than here because he saves for six months, returns and himself up. that connection with the unprecedented numbers makes this a think different. the second issue bailey with the islamic status iraq and i'll show more in the labonte, isis

or isil, whatever acronym used, an interesting situation where nonstate actor has made a pretty serious did and take over pretty important part of one of the larger states in the middle east, rack. we have seen elements with hezbollah and lebanon in a major d.c. i think that is something we haven't seen much of in the last couple of decades. so you put those two together and you get a very volatile situation with westerners coming to fight. >> can you try to explain to all of us what makes the islamic state or al qaeda, what makes a mental list of two philosophy appealing to young americans for young arabs? what is it that makes you want

to be a jihadi quiet >> well, i will start. i am sure jim and brian i think it's out there. i will make a page on your recent publication. ryan has a publication on america and other european fighters who have gone particularly to syria, which hits on some of these. >> i think you need some sheet music to die. [laughter] i am sitting on a panel for the new fbi direct care with among others bruce hoffman. one of the things we looked at going around a field office is what has inspired people to go over. but there are a couple of things. this really dates for a more analytical grand style project. in the absence of that, there are a couple of things that

appear to be motivating. one is taking territory appears to have inspired some individuals that isis, the videos of what looks like a success on the battlefield has drawn some individuals, particularly since june to go fight with the group that appears to be waning and a group that if i was on cnn a couple of nights ago to comment on this video that came out two or three days ago, what is interesting is it with clips of people on fox, cnn, msnbc of the americans, former generals, former intelligence officers, state department diplomats commenting that isis is gaining ground. they took the cliffs come to use them in a propaganda video and pushed them out. so they have been using our own words to make that case to iran population. the really interesting is that social media.

so that argument, that domino argument appears to be one reason. some of these people that i've gone over to fight also have been clearly looking for something. they claim to come from -- some of them come from broken households. sun has dropped out. i wouldn't call most of these individuals that have gone on particularly well educated. we can say that with the leadership structure. but there are things they are being drawn to and make them want to be part of a group that appears to be important as well. so i wouldn't point at least from the data i have looked at to any one factor, but several happening over there and in their own minds appear to be drawing them to go. >> it is interesting that it is so attractive. i was just in saudi arabia and i went to see an e-mail on that i talked to over half a dozen

years and his 18-year-old son is begging to go to syria and he told him no, you shouldn't go. not that you can't go. he said i don't want to be elected arab government dictating. so he encouraged him not to go because he said you don't know enough about islam to do the proper thing in those circumstances you are going to be and had to do the wrong thing as bad for your salvation, shall we say. but he says a lot of young men in his mosque were asking for them and seeking his approval and encouragement to go into religious lady i lived with, her son had our geek on and she is happy about it. what is your sense why it is attractive?

and is the same for the americans as were arabs? >> no, i don't think so. when you look at the people who have either gone to previous tab to them again then, afghanistan, somalia or elsewhere, and you get very diverse motives. certainly, if you talk to them or listen to what they say, expressioexpressio ns of faith or of prayer. certainly the ideology of al qaeda, the individual duty to take up armed struggle against islam is under assault and battery is an important ingredient. there are also unspoken, but these other motives than five touchdown. the desire for adventure to do something meaningful, to participate in and at the

struggle. personal crisis is a big part of those, particularly for the united states. a very individual decision. a young man in florida that seth talked about in one of his comments come he basically said his life in florida. >> that is a group you >> that makes it harder to defuse. >> it is difficult for us. in the united states, there is no accidents of volunteers. the numbers are very, very small. publicly identified since 9/11, we have had approximately 120 americans that have gone or tried to go overseas join jihadists friends abroad. we know there are somewhere beyond that around 100 or more

have gone to syria. the is not an american muslim population of approximately 3 million. and so, we are talking about a very tiny turnout. despite the efforts of al qaeda and isil it through very slick internet campaigns and social media to attract. they are simply -- hang on. they are not selling a lot of cars. they are just not. the decisions are very individual, not community support. bad mayors is that those who will go, some will acquire competence as a result of their experience. it will be even more

radicalized. some will be disillusioned and determined to continue their campaign. >> can you talk about the issues started to talk about what is the threat of isis to the u.s.? is it a big threat? is that a longer-term threat, and immediate threat to the homeland or just a threat to our close friend in the middle east? >> no, i think it is a threat to the united states ultimately, although it is a threat to the other things as well. what distinguishes days isis is that it claims to be and to some degree is already a state. it takes a it takes and hold territory, something al qaeda tried to do. now, if you talk about the ability of terrorist groups to organize themselves to strike at

great distance, they can organize themselves and operate in highly unfriendly environments with very effective governments like germany or canada or even the united states. but they have a great era of difficulty in doing so and limited capability as a result. i have a slightly easier time in state funds from a to them, but also very incompetent. so young men would be an example or pakistan where they may be under pressure but it's not much because the state is incompetent. they can pose a greater threat to long-distance targets. they have an even greater ability to operate in areas that have no government at all like somalia for much of the last 10 years. the biggest threat is when they operate and they actually have the active assistance of a local government. that has only occurred once in modern history and that was in

afghanistan before 2001 and that is where the threat to planning and the operational control of 9/11 occurred. to see another state emerge in the middle east, which becomes a large platform for terrorists with larger aspirations clearly tends to replicate what we have spent a decade preventing in afghanistan and the dust creates the possibility of threats of that dimension again. so i think denying isis and similar groupings the capacity to take and hold territory is important. >> but what is the goal right now? is a taking and holding more territory and knocking off the saudi regime? yesterday they called on the saudi's to overthrow the royal

family and were coming to makkah. in their priority list, where do we rank? >> i would say in answer to that question, the groups they indicate, the priorities are areas that would tend to be areas from about iraq into syria, potentially parts of lebanon and jordan. and israel and palestine. though how well they would he received by even sunni groups there is an open question. but it is at least a regional issue. their name actually highlight the areas they are most interested in. at the same time, what has been interesting with isis as they have adopted a strategy recent days that is more similar to the way al qaeda has operated over the past 10 years and even

outside of the area as they are primarily operating in. they have reached out to jihadist groups and other places and some of them through encouragement have pledged loyalty. we saw that within the last week. but she hottest group in the sinai has been fighting against the egyptians and israelis to pledge loyalty. we have since had three members of libya around. one group now has pledge loyalty. south asia -- it is interesting in pakistan we have seen support from groups like the pakistan taliban to isis. support means pledges of support rather than willingness to bring in fighters. there is also a willingness to expand their networks in a broader area than just the one that they are fighting. just briefly, where does the u.s.a.? i think in general, you look at the levels of violence primarily focusing on local machines.

the sub six regime in syria and the iraqi regime. that is where most of the energy is directed. there does appear to be an interest in inspiring others outside of those areas to conduct attacks including europe and potentially the u.s. i would say the focus of the effort right now without a doubt is their own region. >> let me just clarify. the taliban never had any intentions. the taliban had no extra asking ambitions whatsoever, but they were willing to host groups that did and facilitate their and facilitate the operation and it's hard to believe that isis would do the same whatever its own intentions if they were able to take and hold whatever it is. >> the idea of the islamic state, not just how many square miles, the idea of the islamic state has excited islam as

around the world. it is galvanized the world. we are now in the process in their campaign against it. that is going to have consequences. and to the extent that we ultimately -- i have to take remedial gears here -- to the extent that we become an impediment to the achievement of their goals and even the survival of that enterprise is going to have an effect on their strategic calculations. both as an organization as well as individual jihadist who were there that may be scattered and motivated by ideas of vengeance as well as other groups that are not there. so we are beginning with the excellence of this for a long

time. when the jihadist comeback year, they will most likely be arrested and identified. but there is a bigger problem in europe, sort of a fascinating problem. europe has somewhere in the neighborhood of about 2000 people that have gone primarily from france to germany, belgium that has gone off to fight syria and iraq. some of them are going back and forth. the polling data indicates in some of these countries an extraordinary level of support for the islamic state. >> in the european -- among the muslims. i am talking about extraordinary levels of support. in many cases they are coming there from marginalized communities and mrs. seemed quite differently. when these jihadi's comeback to

these communities in europe that are already emboldened by the creation of the islamic state to create in a sense any islamic states come in neighborhoods where they are going to enforce sharia, then that becomes the catalyst for a confrontation not only what the government, but the other phenomenon going on in europe and that is the rise of alternative right-wing database of political grouping. a europe has not just a terrorist problem -- >> so what is not a domestic top of now can become -- >> , societal problem. that is the point. >> i think it is very important to underscore what brian just said about the excitement. a lot of certain they saudi's, the arabs in general i think theo about the islamic state.

the idea that a democracy movement didn't work in many of them are still unhappy with their governments and this is kind of a new way to get out we cannot just send freedom that we can get the kind of idyllic society we had in the profits time if we can just get the islamic state. i don't think it would be such an idea like this idea, but it clearly does seem to excite people in a way that i had a lot of americans don't understand. so why should we be doing about this? leave aside the bombing now. what should we do to protect ourselves? is it good enough to contain is, which is probably the maximum if the bombing can do that.

or do you have to do more? >> well, this is just at the heart -- >> if you contain it, but ultimately it, will ultimately weather it, but ultimately whether because of not succeeding? >> this is the harder debate. the arab campaign is beginning to succeed integrating some of the capabilities of the forces from the islamic state whether or not an air campaign by itself can destroy, ultimately defeat and destroy, where it can defeat is another question. some people say that we have -- we have to do more. this gets to the argument of on the ground where we have to accelerate. or we have to find them we have to persuade the tribes in iraq and turn against al qaeda. i am not sure how much of a senate areas on the part of the

sunnis in iraq. there is some resistance now, but you know, i am just not sure that how much of a strength of feeling there is on the part of the sunni tribe to take on the islamic state, especially on behalf of our government, although the government has changed, it is still not an inclusive government. it is still that she attained. >> we think being stuck towards the view that the iraqis can't defeat them, so we need to get the turks and the turks won't do it unless we go after assad. are we getting sacked ieper and deeper and back to the original question, what should we do, jim? >> i think that they will eventually be driven out. they may go underground, that they will lose control because

they are a minority of the sunni population, which is a minority of the iraqi population. and so, the kurds and the shiite between now and with whatever marginal hope they get from the sunnis will eventually retake that territory with our assistance. and i don't think they you have to put american infantry on the ground. there are boots on the ground. there will be advisors in some of them may get killed. that is a different level of engagement. the real question is serious. this group emerged out of syria. many of them are iraqis, but essentially a merchant of syria. it is dysuria civil war that is the hotbed of which much of this violent is coming and the situation there is much more complicated because the sunnis are a majority there, not a

minority. the government represents a small ethnic minority. that conflict is complicated by a great deal of international involvement on both sides of the russians and the iranians on one side. i think the one -- >> we are doing both. we are bombing in syria. we are arming what we called for actions in eventually to overthrow assad, but not now. these regional contradictions eventually burn themselves out. the question is how much damage they do and the quicker you can accelerate that, the better. the one factor that may change this dynamic is if we succeed in getting an agreement with the

rent on their nuclear deal, we will find in iraq our interests are rarely coincident and we can begin not just operating in parallel lines about communicating with each other, which would make our assistance to the iraqis much more effect to and perhaps eventually be able to broker some kind of peace agreement in syria, which would require also operational pressure. that is ultimately what will happen. the question is how many people get killed and how many poor people get radicalized. >> just one more answer and then we'll go to your questions, but i think it is fair to say if there is an iranian deal of the form under discussion, while that may have the e-zine that you suggest, it is also going to outrage our sunni arab friends,

especially my dear friends in saudi arabia. go ahead, seth. >> i just want to add two things. i do think we need to continue to ask not just what should we do, but what are the interests here? do we really have interests? i would say the connection between the west and westerners going in iraq and syria in particular make this important to us. these are countries if their names don't get identified and put on no-fly lists, for example, that to reduce the waiver program can come to the united states. these are countries where we had a visa waiver laws allowing them to come. part of the issue is i think if we don't do anything in this area continues to attract westerners, the small numbers brian is talking about other

americans, but larger numbers of europeans, i do think this presents a problem particularly when we have a contingent in. that is plotting attacks in europe and the united states. i don't think we can afford to just stay out of this. we run into the same problem we had with afghanistan in the 2001. you can expect standout makes you more secure. i think then the issue is what do you do. one issue i would say we don't want to do and i would strongly urge staying away for a is the introduction of combat -- conventional combat forces in this area. as we saw both after 2003 in iraq in particular, levels of radicalization will play a large-scale american forces moving in. i would strongly stay away. we have a presence on the ground. our clandestine intelligence and special operations unit.

i think this is where we do a very poor job of combating menace. this really is, like all of their faith in, all four of us up here, this is in part a struggle of ideas. we do a very bad job of pushing back. one of the things that is interesting in the early 2000 saudi state effectively with defectors from al qaeda in the arabian peninsula is give the defectors a foreign to speak about their time in al qaeda. tv interviews. we do have people. i know this because i know their names and i know their locations. we have people that have gone to syria and come back to the united states and are completely disillusioned. they believe that they were sold a bill of goods. this is a bad used-car salesmen do you do go over and fight with jihadist. but they found they didn't like. that stuff is not coming out yet. >> why don't the tv networks --

>> i don't think the law-enforcement agencies have been willing to identify those people. >> why don't those people go volunteer? are they afraid to? >> that's a good question. they may be afraid. but it sounds out a counter message that all of the propaganda we are hearing on the news is not reality. >> questions. >> hi, nancy nova grad yet i have a question for trans and and anyone else about the rise of radical islam in southeast asia. he started to talk about it. we were just in cambodia where i heard references to the presence of islamic fundamentalism. of course it exists in

indonesia. that is part 1. part 2 is what we have been reading about the repression of muslims in the them are and in china. bill that creates a kind of radicalism? >> great questions. you know, it is interesting. in some rand in the work we have done over the past couple of months, we look at the numbers -- levels of jihadist activity. between 2010 and 2013, there was a 50% increase in the number of said two groups. most of us tend to be the middle east, not southeast asia. there is a double lane of jihadist fighters at a rest of lane and the number of attacks by these groups. most of that is happening in north africa and the levant and

iraq. south asia has seen strings back and forth over the past several years. philippines, for example, groups like abu sayyaf have been weekend because the philippine offers. one of the things i want to highlight, people here may have forgotten. the u.s. has been involved in a very significant struggle in the philippines since 9/11. it is primarily a special operations forces and intelligence units not conventional. you don't see the newspapers. it has decimated the jihadist groups in the philippines. it estimated abu sayyaf. the estimated groups which have now turned on other jihadist groups and philippines. so that area right now, we have seen a slavery by a vote area of

pakistan and india were ivan although we hear he has created an additional affiliate, but i would say across that region, there are concerns about the growth of jihadist groups. i would say across the board, the levels are still lower than what we are seen in the middle east and north africa and probably south asia as well. and jim is in a better position than i am along these lines. the decisions about what the uss in 2016 and after in south asia, in afghanistan have a lot of implications about the activity by 1720, 1718 and 2019. that has an impact in other areas. bangladesh, cambodia and other countries along those. i don't know if brian had any

more. >> just talking recently to some officials. they again underscore the fact that the islamic state idea does have poll. it does again have a week in sentiment at the end to nations that they had ready much under control. keep in mind when there was an original wave of activity in and in the that was both a crackdown and an attempt to deal with it through other means. the group that was responsible for much of this, but the initials ji. and a ji ultimately backed away from thailand, but the term they used was an interesting one. they disengaged. and it has a contingent quality about that.

>> meaning you could reengage. >> you could reengage. it is not turning off, ending, finishing, anything like that. it has an ephemeral quality to it. >> can i ask you, jim, do someone else want to ask a question? sorry, go ahead. i will get back to a ram later. >> jonathan want for a school. regarding radicalization and in european countries, what you see is the possible solutions and what is the appetite of governors to handle this in a decisive way? >> europeans have a much greater -- when you say europeans, that is a huge generalization. there are large populations, immigrant-based populations in a handful of countries.

germany, primarily from turkish workers, france, primarily from north africa, united kingdom, primarily from south asia. ..

>> >> to prevent it going abroad to pick up passports to make it a crime others take a position we must welcome these people back and monitor them and rehabilitate back into society. that is typical european. [laughter] >> that was the saudi way to deal with them put them in prison then rehabilitate. then a wife and a car and a house happily ever after.

>> and kind i'd like ebola that appeared in the last three months to the general public i was wondering where they all come from. were they working with al qaeda? are they always working with isil is the day the ones that came up with the islamic state in what about the jihad groups? >> this is not so much was not there before but it is overrunning buyback otherwise it is just another insurgent group in syria.

it is when the iraqi army collapsed. what was surprising is the collapse of the iraqi army not the assistance of isis. >> can you address the relationship between al qaeda? >>. >> this is a good question. this is a brief history of this group. and in 2002 he became affiliated to pledge to this organization to al qaeda they changed their name to al qaeda in a racket became an affiliate's december 2004.

for the iraqi government and what happened ens briefly at this point is the syrian insurgency's starts thus doesn't plan -- that sense the cells then start getting involved. but al qaeda in iraq once both syria and iraq. >> it is like a feud between the city gang. >> in -- there was an adjudicated dispute between individuals and syria and he comes down and says it should keep iraq with two

separate organizations. that we don't agree with this decision so they are kicked out. there is a funny john stuart episode. that al qaeda and iraq has become so bad and so difficult that is felt it was too bloody word to violent and how bad you have to be to kick you out of their organization? this is the origin of isis. it claims it has the whole region and there is tension over the past 10 months particularly in north africa competing for a range of the

jihad is groups so we have two competing major movements was led by al qaeda one led by isis to any american rain or army officer that has fought has fought against the predecessor organization. we know this group well. >> it is interesting how epidemiology comes into the realm. and the debate was should be tried to intervene before it becomes a pandemic before it is a problem here or we can

accord to ourselves that we can insulate ourselves? >> but in regard to isil is we tried to revise the waiver program identify before they come back and try to stamp this out it is a continuing problem. >> that is the good analogy. >> the american policy is to

withdraw all american combat forces from afghanistan in 2016. is that a good policy? >> no. [laughter] >> and i think it will be reviewed. from what happens in 2017 as the next president's decision and then by the end of 2016 with the emergence of teesixteen and the object lesson the cost of having left iraq prematurely. >> generally except it is the common wisdom.

>> and with the u.s. congress asking the president to reconsider that decision. and it is harder to say yes. and it is a harder time to decide tuesday. and it doesn't mean in large numbers but it may be too large. with only 9800 troops how much pressure the afghan armed forces are put under.

so whether that next level of 5500 at 2016 so the decision to leave entirely will be reviewed. >> what is the relationship of the neighborhood? but why would this settle into the extended long period of conflict in the environment? >> and we're focused on isis to a degree of the civil war and syria. with the shia conflict in the persian conflict.

and all the states that have occurred to with the conflict and so all these governments are constantly recalibrate in their policy depending on the top threat for the moment. but it is just a sign they are being jerks in several different directions at the same time. and that is why all the coalitions are temporary. and all of those collisions will tend to fade as they have some success.

the fault is to get the americans to do this if 300,000 iraqi soldiers are insufficient to contain a basis -- isis said the americans but one of the good things about the coalition is to get these people to step up closer to the plate. with turkey, jordan, and the emirates, with those combat aircraft around the area united states is leading the campaign.

we don't take on imperial missions. a young boy today a 13 this country has been at war his entire life. maybe it has not affected that young boy of the sea is the number of a military family but and when he finishes university to postgraduate school. he has a 13 year-old boy. so what our level of commitment to be to contest that would going on in some form or another that could well put us in a situation of open-ended warfare.

>> just to briefly pick up on one of the country's. it is in a very fragile position. but during the 2003 through 2006 were the primary front was through damascus and syria and then into iraq. that was the pipeline. and when syria begins to unplug it reverses. virtually every major jihadist is coming through turkey by land or air.

is is where we monitor those their flights but it is turkey. as an ally not the government but there is the decision to start striking against them this year the government we have a very serious problem on our hands. clearly their concerns the direction the country is going. >> the government? >> government. >> and he seems to believe somehow he will benefit, the creation of the islamic state and the revival of the ottoman empire.

and to stabilize it may not be sustainable. can we take one more question? no? okay. [laughter] we are finished. thank you for your attention [applause] [inaudible conversations]

>> i have been a member of congress 34 years if i was a manager for a baseball team i would be in the hall of fame. it does not bother me. it didn't bother me to get beat i had 18 co-chairman who were chairman of the candidates in my district that were supporting me. it is better judgment it is hard to years of elected and

also a to tell people you run 2 miles every morning and though 99 percent of the time. there is a difference of the 90 year-old people the dallas news was not for me. >> not all are built the same i bet people are wondering how you run 2 miles a day? >> and i was told one time we heard with to him'' everyday over the fence day after day and tell he is a full grovel. when you can still left him then you can run for congress. that is so i got in the race from the cattle business. >> there is no economic purpose served with

microsoft apple to shift rather narrows to p.r. to avoid paying taxes. with those intellectual properties to produce good stuff. i am not quarrelling with apple. that my quarrel is for this huge profits is the way they avoid paying taxes to shift that to themselves to their own shell corporations and tax havens such though those are the loopholes and we need the revenue from that in order to avoid another round of sequestration that is a mindless way to budget.

where middle of the ebola problem but because of this sequestration as that of budgeting with the cookie cutter approach not the teapartier or the libertarians but most of us want to end sequestration. >> i just watched your program question and answer

and i find it very offensive to put some beyond the air about knowing very little about the crown and history and is longxi misquoted the acheron and misquoted the life of muhammed. and i find it very offensive. in to seize this program i am completely shocked. it is a worse program i have seen on c-span in 20 years. >> the one to comment with

the author doorway issue has given the most complete and concise, articulated explanation of the muslim religion in the modern world that i have not heard of anion the religious scholar a 65 years. she should be commended for the speech. thank you very much c-span. crisis. washington 4 nall continues.

>> we're pleased to have back to the of washington table a former administrator of a national highway traffic safety administration a k a nhtsa. >> it is responsible for highway safety in united states is the leading organization is the of world responsible for reducing injuries and fatalities with traffic crashes and the economic impact from that as well. >> the biggest travel day of the year is today. how many will be on the roads? >> out of the thousands it varies every year but with the increase travel days is the increased crashes that increases injuries and fatalities so it is where

they're on the road to make sure people drive safely to be attentive, alert, so to be sure to be there safely. >> how does nhtsa interactive ministration? >> it is intermodal there is than the administration's administration's, there sfa a, rail, nhtsa is one of the chairs rotation modes trains, planes, automobiles. >>host: how much do we spend on infrastructure every year on the federal level? >> it is reauthorize the every six years usually. and between 50 or

$70 billion per year because of the authorization. but it to be funded by gas tax revenue which is a user fee. but the one good thing that nhtsa works on his fuel economy standards. the great thing is we're using less fuel every single year that is wonderful for greenhouse gases and dependence on oil but if you tax the user fee buys gasoline there is less revenue going into the highway trust fund that means we have less funds to do it so runs a deficit so one thing congress needs to do is address this issue so we can continue to build infrastructure.

>>host: how would you like congress to address this issue? >> they all have plus and minus is. you always want to tie fet accuser gasoline is logical but then you use less gas another way another way is to tax the miles traveled that this country shall because people have to be tracked and people are careful about privacy. there are other ways but those are the two logical intersections but it has to be a just one way or another. the eisenhower system is over six years the rest of the world has model'' we have done with highway safety and infrastructure. and frankly a lot of countries have surpassed us

but we have to address this. >>host: why does it take so long to build a highway? >> there is a number of issues with the environmental impact which is also something that is very important. also to make sure the materials will hold up, the design of the road to imports to the usage so we are a country that we also values safety. that just takes a lot of time to do it we cannot just take years to build a road way. and another mode the leadership is a program that calls every day counts to

limit the bureaucracy that time it takes to build a road. >>host: i don't know how long you have been in the washington area but we have been here 10 or 20 years and nothing has changed on i-95. [laughter] it has just gotten worse. what is the solution? >> it is multi variable that is another washington word. they're is a lot of reasons why it takes time to improve railroad but you cannot build your way out of traffic congestion to cannot keep making them wider and wider because what happens to make the roads better than people moved into the area than there are more people on the road it is a constant hamster wheel.

so we have to incentivize people to do different things to travel which is using public transit to get people to move closer to the gregarious. it is called livable communities. the further out the more congested the road gets but to further alleviate congestion we have to keep people off the roads. where people are doing it but if it is 30 lanes wide you will still get congestion overtime no doubt about it. >>host: our guest administrator of nhtsa 2010 through 2013.

one of the recent things is the recall of their bags. does nhtsa have authority to recall and prohibit these cars? >> yes. one of the primary missions of nhtsa is investigation and recall authority as the motor vehicle safety act passed in 1970 and amended several times. the issue is very difficult because in the united states to build the cars and to certify. but nhtsa job is to purchase vehicles that they comply

with the standards. even when you meet those standards the great thing about america's cars the average life of a car is a 11.four years. besides a standards and nhtsa job is to investigate when these problems arise and try to get them to volunteer. and nhtsa does have the authority to recall. >>host: is this a situation that you work with the japanese counterparts? >> is of a global system of automatic -- automotive manufacturing. with crashes and vehicle problems from all parts of

the world but yes the decisions that nhtsa makes is independent but in terms of investigation. >> let's take some calls. please gore heads. >> caller: tavis just worrying about the accountability building or rebuilding a average. where does that money go? who is accountable and how do they know when that money is collected it will be dispersed? gore is a contractor's? ltd. is a great question.

it is amazed to talk to you today. some hour federal so states have to contribute to the money that goes to building a road the accountability is on the part of the federal government to make sure it is spent properly. any be perpetuating waste fraud or abuse but with that ultimately it comes down to the road building function is done by a contractor and then to execute the job of building the road then from the state and the federal government that works hard to make sure it is done

properly. >>host: how much wear on highways is caused by corporate transportation? to big businesses help pay? >> that goes to the user fee. truck traffic is very hard on the roads it is harder than a passenger vehicle because of the weight and impact so those that use the road when and contribute which is what i mentioned earlier about the gas tax the for the drive the more impact to have on the road so the more you should pay but how to find the right user fee is difficult. bigger trucks and longer distances. >>host: how big is this the that the trucks have to

pay? >> it is three or $0.4 a gallon. in each state has a gas tax as well. there is a wide price because of the very same reasons. but in washington d.c. it is much more expensive and montana one of the reasons is the taxes here is because the federal and the district >> caller: good morning. thanks for taking my call. i have a comment. i am in the new york city area and i travel through the tunnel to go to news feed your jersey turnpike it seems at that highway is expanded very well.

but how does the toll system compliment or supplemented that gas tax for construction and projects nerving for murder in the future? >> a wonderful question. it is controversial in the way that there is more toll's possible but the one thing that ties to it has time goes on as value of money increases or decreases you will see over time the tolls go up. but that will vary because of the infrastructure of road building leadership or for other purposes but his

frustrating but i use that i 95 corridor of lot. but it probably has almost doubled. but it is frustrating. >>host: i saw an article on the opening of the average. but it was promised that the fees would go away in two years. >> the interesting thing about government and politics and taxes, once you have the steady stream of revenue you are dependent upon it is hard to get on dependent on its her cry remember that promise as well and it was broken

because of the upkeep of the bridge was more than anticipated and the other factors, while people were upset people had gotten used to it. but it was painful in the beginning but then people were angry a short period of time. it is unfortunate but it is the reality of politics in america. >> caller: i want to ask regarding trucks and taxes can you confirm that the diesel fuel taxes are significantly higher because it is designed to tax the trucks than how that discourages the adoption and of diesel fuel for passenger

vehicles because the fuel is so much more expensive? >> diesel fuel is more expensive with higher taxes because of the user fee connection. diesel engines are more powerful so therefore the notion of the user fee to hopes to correct that to make sure the truck traffic pays their fair share. and the differential is one aspect why americans have been slow to adopt diesel technology. another aspect is perception of diesel engines in america ought. if we are old enough to remember they used to spew out exhausted and smelled horrible and the engine

would run loud, if you go to a dealership, you will find it is a refined ride. actually they go much further than regular gasoline. one of the biggest issues that is probably holding it back and my suggestion is to take a look at the seoul. it is a great option. >>host: former administrator of nhtsa and now working where? >> a leading national law firm that works with the number of issues and policies with cities around the country. one of the things that i do is work on automotive policy with data security and privacy. an interesting aspect about

cars is they are getting smarter and safer. which means they are collecting information about diagnostics comment within the vehicle or the services. so the important aspect of future policy and safety to major automakers take care of people stayed as they are not sharing it but protecting it. i was fortunate to work on the with the global automakers is to work and privacy issues to make sure every auto company protects your data so we encourage people to make sure there is not inappropriate use collected from the card. >>host: if you happen to be traveling today and listening on c-span radio

and read like to dial in with a hands free device. [laughter] please do not dial and drive at the same time. don't to me that guy. if you are traveling let us know what it is like. you talked about the technical issues with cars. and they have become a technological the fis. is this a privacy issue as we see with the records and that nsa? >> i would say cars are equivalent with the devices we interact with and now it is combined.

none of the sensors there is more code in irregular every day vehicle than in the airplane which is scary. privacy is the now issue. not in the future. so to have satellite radios or the internet connections that allows you to get information about a local restaurant, or you have something to make movie reservations. you have to make sure that the information does not get leaked or breach. also the people collecting do not use it inappropriately.

sold like you don't want to catch adds from competitors you don't want that to happen in. so you need to create the set of principles. >>host: at the same time what about the release of that information? if your car traveled to the 15 locations is that available to a law-enforcement or nsa? >> but they will not release any information without a court order. so it is not that it is where you our behalf to follow the same probable cause principles for any other search and seizure. but that is important they do have the protections.

nobody wants a car that is the second most endeared item to have information people could easily access. it is an important principle >>host: and native from atlanta undergraduate from northwestern law degree from harvard. west virginia go-ahead. >> caller: i was calling about the idea of the gas tax being a user fee. and people that drive should pay for the roads but but those are dependent on that road for the grocers to come

to the store so they benefit just as much as those people who drive. >> you are absolutely right. when we talk about the user fee part of the cost is that loaf of bread all the materials, the flour, this seasoning all have to be brought to the baker then ship it out and it has to be delivered to the distribution point and then it is delivered to the store that cost is built into everything that we buy. everything. you passalong kathy through the consumer product system. but the way to figure out is a actual vehicle impacting the road. but everybody benefits and we do pay for the eroded it

is good for someone to hear from lester j. knapp. i work for jay rockefeller summit is great to hear from a view. >>host: from twitter getting from philadelphia is $20 in tolls another says as i enter chicago there are tolls everywhere it cost my stepdaughter $12 a day to do get to work. >> caller: i have a question. the first question is how much is a barrel of oil? in fact, i would give you my follow-up. if gas is a certain amount of money than why is it the city's gas stations has a

different price for fuel? one mae's selling at $3.10 but down the road it maybe $2.99. what is the reasoning behind that? >> my area of expertise. one of the areas i have worked on as the staffer and administrator of nhtsa is fuel the economy standards and the cost benefit to improve fuel economy. it can be 60 or 70 or $80 a barrel. geopolitical issues, there is a variation and that directly impacts the cost but why do have differences of prices right next to you?

the interesting thing about fuel and pricing is you have to get enough money to buy your next gallon of fuel. so when gasoline stations they price not only for operations but also the future cost and that may vary because of the refinery the location of the delivery states. you could have gas stations strickland down the street or a gas station and peters that charges more. he may charge more because he needs to get the next load and it cost more from the refinery.

but some of it is profit-taking. if they can get that amount they will charge that amount >> caller: good morning. i just recently to a trip across the country to arizona. from of the missouri and drove into that snowstorm. there is not a truck driver on the road that would allow to have a driver's license because we were driving 25 or 30 miles an hour for over 100 miles and i guarantee the trucks never slowed down. there was at least 25 accidents in a 50-mile stretch because the semis refused to slow down.

in oklahoma city the next morning we started to your travel on route 40 into the panhandle of texas and every vehicle wreck on the side was caused by a semi driver it is a safety factor. the urging to get there in a hurry nobody's life is worth a dollar. >>guest: truck safety is a huge issue. in the united states wielders -- lose 33,000 people per year to traffic crashes. 33,000.

unfortunately working with traffic safety or those families this is so important it has its own safety issue they deal with a truck safety and they were very hard in conjunction to make sure they are inspected and doing the right thing but we see people every day that should do the right thing not speeding, not drunk and unfortunately people make mistakes or bad decisions and truck drivers do cheer but trucks have gone much safer because of their hard work of the state law enforcement across the country and it is very scary

rainy to be better that you don't see what you see on the road. >> are the standards for the acedia license strict? >> yes but that being said but then live that professional responsibility is another. people executed the spots perfectly then once the parents are not in the car you took a little freedom and that is human nature but we want to make sure we do follow our profession. >> caller: hello. i have a few comments.

man has taken a and got out of everything. >>host: we appreciate your comment and we will let that stand. by a couple of tweets what is nhtsa view of driverless vehicles and are there changers -- changes? >> fantastic question. was really the beginning in terms of people paying attention the agency is excited of the driverless vehicles because to reduce traffic crash is driver air.

90% there is an element of human error behind a the crash. so think of the lives make its state -- save in the futures though nhtsa is excited we have a long way to go and they try to figure out how these could be implemented how i operate properly and it is very exciting for out the research going on in the states of california the day is coming where we can have that drive up i-95. we are excited that as an agency.

>>host: but what would that take to implement? >> right now the vehicle's design by the manufacturers are not traditional like google. they presume no changes in infrastructure. with all the radar they can read the road because road conditions change. with a vehicle to vehicle communication you have cars it can send us safety signal to each other. david ran a red light do not approach. this is something nhtsa is working on hold the they will issue rules within two years so that is our infrastructure can help.

is it necessary? it is not but ciller to help support driverless vehicles but for urd driver convenience it is a wonderful opportunity. >>host: we will finish with this tweet we have a big trucker audience. >> contrary to the ohio caller i drove 120,000 miles 87 through 94 truckers were the best drivers on the road. >>host: to get different points of view. >> the exception is the bad driver we see great drivers on the road every day. >>host: former administrator of nhtsa we appreciate you coming over here and sharing tax.

>> happy thanksgiving. >> as much as we have accomplished in 36 years i want to look forward to the next couple months. one thing i would like to do is the defense authorization bill passed involving large amounts of staff also the permanent subcommittee on investigations into avoid taxes. >> i have been a member of congress 34 years. to get beat, if i was the baseball manager with the record of 34 i would be and

all the fame. it does not bother me. . .

. >> coming up tonight on c-span2 retired general stanley mcchrystal talks about national service and citizenship. next annual citizenship features business and educational leaders on activism and corporate social responsibility. retired general stanley mcchrystal receives the award award for national service. he speaks about volunteer, at the university school in washington this is