on our way out the manager or the man i assume to be the manager rushes up to me and says i want to apologize on behalf of the restaurant for the malfunction of our soap dispenser. [laughter] i explained again it wasn't the soap dispensers fault and he handed me his card and said be that as of may i want you to know that if you need a shirt dry cleaned or replaced it please get in touch with us and we will reimburse you and at that point i thought i should point out its soap, i think it's going to come out. [laughter] and then really showing it's true manners they said and it keels. [laughter] ..

this would happen over and over again. what was going on was the restauranteur would be calling colleagues from around the neighborhood saying if all you have today is a picture and you want to see him in the flesh he is here right now. that's exactly what was going on. they would exchange notes on what music i was overheard say i like. i'm a big your claim. i don't think there's ever been more bjork played in a restaurant. been during my tenure as restauranteur. >> is this true, the great scene in the godfather when they go to the italian restaurant up in the bronx and michael has begun, is it true you have gone into the men's room and i'll and called your own home phone messaging to

write the review into your own telephone? >> the way i would take notes, it wasn't so much besides taking notes avoided wanted to the table but more not interrupt the rhythms, i would get a walk outside or pretend to have a cigarette or walked into the men's room. i thought rather than dictate into a tape recorder i will call my own voicemail. that we have had a couple glasses of wine, went home and want to go to bed i could wake up the next one, just taking dictation from myself. [laughter] >> thanks. alessandra, i want to ask you a little bit about the long view of the art history of television today. you have written about these shows can house of cards. you called it utterly joyless. it's a series of joyless. does anyone here watching ray donovan? the utter despair, the remorseless this, madman is an extended psychotherapy session.

50, 100 years from now what are people going to think about life in america in our times? that this is what we were entertained by. >> it's so sweet you think there will be anyone left in 50 years. [laughter] >> it is a snapshot of our times. look at girls, orange is the new black. there is this sort of almost, sort of a quality to these shows which is so, just so downtrodden in town. >> two thoughts. one, you are watching, you are all agents come your watching cable, premium television can. a lot of americans are watching theithe cheerful television abot people being killed for good reason. ncis and all that stuff. to argue america's. we were talking but doing a piece about how can i like the walking dead. but to me it is a dystopia that

is a happy cheerful dystopia because yes the world is ruined and has been taken over by zombies but all the few survivors all the same class and they're all in it together where as frank was putting out in the dystopic movies like divergents or -- >> snow piercer. >> not only has the world come to end but there's a big class difference, like the 1% versus -- there's only 2% left but there's a distinction between the elite and the pull buoy. i was trying to get what could possibly make television so cheerful and movies so cynical really. i realize of course movies is an industry that is threatened and insecure and there's nothing more can you want to blame someone but you just can't blame the end of the earth.

you want to blame tse people are ruining my existence was tv is ever extended even though the world has come to an end it's great because there's more tv. >> also if it's a tv series people have to come back. if it's a movie you got them in, you depress them utterly, but you have the money. if you are a series want them to come back next week. i'm not going to get it verbatim i think when my favorite leadership wrote was her review of "the walking dead." she said the best thing about "the walking dead" is a they don't drive. [laughter] >> it's true, zombies don't drive. >> i'm a curious if you think tv in general is sort of smarting up for dumbing down. on the one hand, we were done of reality television which we think of as the lowest common denominator. the other and when these are complicated dramas, even if you compare them to 20 years ago or

1000 times more sophisticated and the move a lot quicker. i'm curious just on the whole, if you think television has gotten smarter last two or three decades or has he gotten -- >> it's interesting. there's more smart tv but also wore down the tv. basically. >> total distribution of. >> so i suspect that it actually hasn't changed that much. the ratio. there was good tv back in the '60s and '70s, and there was a lot of terrible tv. that wasn't very much of it. now we have so much of it. and i don't know. it would be an interesting exercise to see if you could do sort of a quality quantity ratio. mr. bayh data over there can answer. it would be interesting to find

out. the great thing about netflix is you're not just watching american tv. you are watching tv from all over the world. i keep urging readers to watch spiral in which is a french crime show that is great. and the british discovered and put on netflix. but everybody is watching swedish tv and danish tv. world, our world is getting narrow but some people are going to places i can narrow it down and that's pretty exciting. >> once a show you watched that you wanted to people you watched? >> god, there's so many. >> give us the top five. >> i'm embarrassed to admit to my watch a lot of centcom's. i love me detailing and those kind of things but i'm not ashamed of that. i'm ashamed of the fact i can turn dr. phil and be glued to it. [laughter] i'm embarrassed that i can

watch, wendy williams, right? were talked but wendy williams. i can't turn that stuff off. so yeah, there's a lot to be ashamed of actually. but luckily i get paid to do so it's really my job to watch bad tv for you. >> let me ask you a question, talk the getting started. let me ask a college question which if you go back to college, the undergrads again, 18, 19, 20 years old, what would you study? >> wow. >> history. >> and why. why would you choose the major see which is no? >> because i was an english major, but you're always going to read. i wish i challenge myself more and taken geography and history and political science. social sciences. i missed an opportunity there that i hope other people who go

to college will -- i didn't take advantage of taking things i didn't already know. i have a lot to redo. i should go back to school. what would you do? >> i was also an english major. i think history is a good answer. may be philosophy. my broader answer would be the farther you get away from college the more you appreciate what a unique juncture of life it is. and that it is often your last opportunity, free of some economic concerns or economic concerns quite as depressing and responsibility i think you have later. to really rummage around ideas and really challenges up and stretch in directions you would normally stretch in. to take chances because you have a net and to you and doesn't think tom keatinge said famously in one of her essays, you still have all the time in the world to make up for your mistakes. you don't have that later on. i think i would just be, i would've been or i would be much more adventurous about everything in college than it

was because with the benefit of hindsight i realize that it is a juncture that cannot be replicated later in life. >> you wrote a column back in september, here it is, i know you're writing a book, frank, about colleges. this column demanding more from college which you talk about the need to be more inclusive, more expansiveness. the real concern seems to be a withdrawal from activity in politics and getting involved in citizen campaigns. so what will the impact be on our democracy? >> the impact will be profound. if you are not using college to fill in the gaps of your information, to learn the history of your own country in the world, you are not going to be suited as well as you should be to participate in specific life of the country where decisions. i had to be concerned right now,

i feel like the noise, the volume of the noise and this is what my book is about surrounding college admissions and the incredible race to get into the most elite schools. i think that's taking up so much oxygen and it's so forming people's psychology that we are in danger of raising a generation of kids who are focused entirely on getting into things, i'm crossing this threshold and not on experiencing or making the most of what's on the other side of that line. that's my biggest concern about what we're doing to kids today in of our conversation about college. [applause] >> a market for my book. >> when do you plan the book to be published? >> it will be published on march 17 i think. >> so you're pretty done with it. >> it is done. >> why come with 800 channels and the thousand cable outlets, there's a little success for

anything educational beyond the obvious public television? why is there no market to support it in this fragmented space i guess the moog -- open courses. >> i know that believe it or not greg teaches greek at harvard and his site cries of mig-23. if you ask a summit before taking online dating of the people to grade it. spent the people are online rather than watching -- >> everyone is online now. people, education, the simpsons is very educational. people, okay, coming to one little story? i have a daughter who's in college but when she was little we were with my nephew and we're talking about the war and -- came up.

i told my nephew was in high school, you know what that is, right? he said, no. his girlfriend who was smart and she said -- so i turned to him was in middle school and she said do you know? wasn't that in 1930 when the nazis went through the quarter and broke all the windows? i said, is that from the princess diaries? she said yes. so people are learning things from things you wouldn't expect. i wish there were more, but it's amazing how much, how sophisticated cartoons are, how sophisticate and even the cultural references that are there. it's not deep learning but it is exposing kids to stuff that they otherwise might not know. >> because of your expertise in terms of watching me to come watching television, or frank, your expertise out in the culinary world, that when this

part of your career is over that you may go to the other side and you would be a consultant to restaurant group, or you would be, they would fly out to hollywood and you would become come to take the of the role and to become the expert consultant? it seems like everyone was in washington, d.c. goes out of power and is already taken up by a consulting group. is there life after that i'm? >> there is but it shouldn't be that revolving door kind of thing but i do think, i wish in politics that there was a year or two where you couldn't be a lobbyist immediately. and, frankly, there is a pauline kale example, this famous them credit. and warren beatty persuade her to come up to hollywood and work in movies. of course, she was terrible because she was a critic. she wasn't a film maker.

i'm not sure i have great advice to give even if anybody wanted it. it's a different field, but i root for good television certainly, but no, i don't think that's it. i think i'm going to be -- >> okay. i'm going to ask our guest a couple of quick questions. let's see how we do on these. call it the lightning rod. -- lightning round. ready? i love this one. >> it feels like a pop quiz. >> you are flying on virgin or flying on jetblue out to lax. you know there's no real food on the flight. what is your airport food drill? you have a six hour, seven hour flight to the coast. you are at jfk in the so-called foodcourt. >> i just have a couple of cliff bars on me. almost every port has cliff bars. in terms of the protein, carbohydrate ratio the better than a lot of other stuff. if you're going to be really hungry i just want to state that hunger all of it, a cliff bar.

and they chocolate peanut butter want to be specific. >> alessandra, what are you going to buy speakers i'm going to the drink at the airport last night. >> the drink you get the what are you going to take on the flight that you find at the airport? >> i hope some kind of sandwich. is that wrong the? a cliff bar sounds better. >> tell us who you report to. hoosier editor? who controls on those which were doing next? frank? >> oddly enough, one of the wrinkles, privileges, is no windows what i'm doing next. it's one of the only jobs at a paper where your editor usually doesn't know what you're writing until it lands, and till it lands moments before it has to be online or whatever. in the public sphere. so we're different come in these particular jobs come we are given an exhilarating and

absolutely hellish amount of freedom. >> alessandra? >> likewise but less so. i have an editor and we discuss has to be reviewed and, and she's very helpful. it's nice to have an editor. i don't envy you. we should do this, are you sure you want to do that? >> tell me, let's start with a tv show in recent memory that you feel has had the greatest impact on catalyzing change, what is on the air is impacting reality in america. >> i can't think of a better example some just going to say law and order sbu which i watched religiously but i think a special it started i think it was just a period where in your people were used to the idea of sex crimes and i can think put

out in the country it was not as well. i'm not saying it's the most, i do what's the impactful, it's not nested this is the to the most social impact. we can talk about modern family, all in the family off the top of my head i would say "law and order svu" change the a lot of americans understood what a sex crime is. >> and it's very entertaining. >> i will go back a little further and give a fairly clichéd answer but i don't think it's a bad one which is the cosby show. they be that some of my because there's a new biography of bill cosby out but it certainly represented something in our kind of sluggish march towards a better race relations. >> if they called into the editorial office or to ask you, you need to take a six-month leave, what would be a dream post for you right now? what would you like to spend six

months but still reporting in? >> paris. great story. every president is having a sex scandal and there's the scary nationalist movement that is going and give every possible so you could possibly want, plus sex scandal, so yes, paris. [laughter] >> me? i have kind of fall in love in recent years with portugal. so maybe there. >> okay. we talked about tv from the past. so what you most memorable television show from your childhood that you just remember 8:00 on whatever it was sunday night or -- what was your favorite childhood spent i was not allowed to watch television. so when my parents would go out and witty spanish babysitter and we were little we were allowed to watch one thing, which was professional wrestling. that was -- [laughter] and i loved it.

so that's my fondest because that was the first time i realized, my parents are out of town, or whatever. how cool is this? we were very small at the time. >> all my children. [laughter] i have not watched a soap in a gazillion years. it's like an talk about a different human being but i don't even remember who i was but i bonded with my mother by watching all my children. and i was so addicted to it that when i was in college there were courses towards my major that i failed to take and till senior because they're scheduled at 1 p.m. and they conflicted with all my children. off mike. >> i will ask this to frank first but i'll as andrew also. i know you flight around a lot. best restaurants in the united states, besides manhattan come and besides new york city. best restaurants in the u.s. >> that's tough. i think l.a. the truth is our strength in

numbers. a city's restaurants in often reflects its customer base and so the size of the segments but i also think l.a. is underrated restaurant city. i prefer eating in l.a. compared to san fran. >> eating with frank. the best that i've had was when we did the tour of southern -- was said changes that were not national chains? >> i did a cross-country road trip where i just tried -- i ate nothing but fast food from dawn to midnight and i tried to hit all of the fast food chains that were on the regional. so i had a co-conspirator at three different friends each did a segment of the trip. if i remember correctly my friend carrie went to new york to a land with me. and then i pick you up at the airport and house and went from atlanta to dallas with me. in my friend barbara met me in gaza and went down to l.a. i was the only one eating fast food for the whole week and

everyone else got a taste of it. >> alessandra, your first know. just come you are at your past summer, you our toes in the sand, two weeks reading, what would you read this summer? >> what would every? >> the book you read that you just kept turning the pages. >> i'm not going to tell because it's going to separate interest. but i've read the best book i've ever read. read. >> yes et cetera people who wanted. >> it's in french and hasn't been translated. it's a wonderful novel which will come out soon and it's set in world war i and its wonderf wonderful. >> the ministry french book. frank, the book when you two weeks off the summer and what did you crawl up reading? >> is a true of the comic novels by geithner said most of his career in screenwriting named joe. he wrote a lot of fraser, wrote a lot of another show i'm forgetting now. the novels are called putting on the ritz, blue have been, and my lucky star.

they all sit in other broadway or hollywood and their satires, and they're unbelievably hysterically funny. i have no idea why they weren't enormous, enormous bestsellers. >> in all your travels, moscow, you were both enrollment. would you say is your one most inspirational moment in front of an artwork, artistic inspiration in? >> does vodka count? [laughter] >> vodka? [laughter] an absolute model spend what work of art? what painting or sculpture? >> i was going to say a whole if you do. moscow is, if you never been exposed to eastern churches you have no idea what it looks like inside so that was to me just mind blowing. >> there's a bernini sculpture in a church in rome that few

people visit. it is the most crazily sexual thing you've ever seen that masquerades as a religion. [laughter] >> i think it's actually in -- >> coronado chapel in -- >> it's on the edge of the center. i always tell tourists to go to it. you can also look at it and you're not stand by 10 other people looking at it, which is great. >> that's a great choice. my last question is, of all the writing, all the articles you've published, what was a few the greatest, most gratifying experience? the feedback in the letters and people were thanking you because you wrote that column. >> there was no feedback and no one thanked me, but i was very proud of the piece i did in russia right when the chechen

war started when we were able to sneak into the morgue where russians were kept, where you realize how savage the russian army still is. they have hundreds of bodies of dead soldiers laid out on the ground for days, and families without the, and just take out and bury them themselves. you felt like nothing has changed since 1930. again, not that many people register a rumor feeling like, i'm glad i did that. >> frank? >> i wrote a column about a year and half ago about my relationship with my sibling or i just thought of getting something for it personal and heartfelt and maybe narrow, and it -- [inaudible] during the entire year so many of the people felt that the particular things about their siblings have been trying to discredit it was one of those most we thought you were blessed to make a connection.

>> both of you have moved our audiences i want to ask you some questions, all right? we will take some questions, and the house lights up a little bit and we're going to ask you to go to these two microphones. you can come up if you want to ask the question and will just get this going, flowing as quickly as we can. try to make you question short and to the point okay? not all at once but here comes a lady i am assume you're coming to the mic. anyone here? anyone here? do we have a question? oh, here is a brave -- >> we have defectors. [laughter] >> i told you this will be the most curious audience in new england. thank you, ma'am go ahead. >> i wrote this because i thought i was supposed to hand it to someone. but i'm going to ask franken you say you have no editor at the op-ed. what about those incredible columns that you write on

sunday? do you have an editor for those? >> i'm sorry, i kind of ms. volk. we have editors. the presumption for opinion columnist is part because writing opinions and people want to respect the. the. dissension is there will be a lot of editing. someone does get the column and make sure you haven't said something so clumsily that no one knows what you mean, that you haven't violated standards of the times, that sort of thing. in a case of sunday columns i tell the my idea that they have done because my column is illustrated but no one ever says you should write this, you must read this come you cannot rate this. in that sense we were on our o own. >> ms. stanley, under broadcast television on the monday section of the times when they ask favor to most important things in under broadcast television ncis is invariably number one, or in the case of football games, and maybe number two.

and it was also just named the most watched series in world at the 54th annual television conference. why is it then that we never see ncis, which you mentioned, or its stars as any winners or even nominees? >> -- emmy winners. spent because hollywood is a very mean and jealous place. i think ncis is extremely successful and to have a form of networks, and i get sucked into it myself, hating myself but i do. i don't think you can talk about great artistic merit even though that's not always what they're about a think as a people aspire to but it was something that is surprising. if you have a form of that's work that well and actors who have been so practiced, it's hard to say this is a great moment. i think that's what it is.

it's just too damn successful in its broadcast. >> thank you both. >> let's go to this mike over here. there's a brave lady. >> i would love to hear your comments on the future of journalism. >> those will be brief. [laughter] >> do you want to take that one? >> me to? yeah, you. the blonde. [laughter] >> i think there is the future. it may not be print but people always want to know things and they will eventually figure out a way to pay for it. so i'm not that worried. i think it's going to be a very hard profession to get into adecco recommended for people who can't afford it basically. ..

there are elements of journalistic information gathering that are in serious jeopardy and that worries me. >> okay. yes, sir, ma'am? >> yes. for i guess the very beginning "the new york times" has been owned by the sulzberger family. "the washington post" for most of its existence was owned by

the graham family. it has recently been sold to the ceo of amazon. i wonder what kind of comments you would make about the new ownership of the post. >> thank you. it is too soon to know what the new ownership of the post is going to mean but right now, and one of our colleagues, david carr, wrote a column about this the other day, right now "the washington post" journalism is looking pretty good but it is way too soon to tell you what it means down the line. the jeff bezos era could be a great one with new owner and someone with deeper pockets and more money to fund excellent journalism should he choose to do that. it could turn out very well. we don't know what the owner's priorities are yet. >> i would add cautionary note, new appointment, new executive editor, fred ryan, who has no real back frowned in journalism. he is essentially a fixer, a

really sophisticated one but he was, he helped "politico," he wasn't a journalist for "politico," he helped "politico" establish itself. so you wonder, at some level will be a fixer for bezos? question you have to ask yourself, why that guy? unless his real skills are what you're after with the newspaper. >> okay. we have a question here from a young lady i recognize from the "today" show and from the food network. >> hi, frank. hello, alessandra. i'm sissy biggers, local girl. i'm a local girl and it was so funny when frank mentioned "all my children," i don't know if you're aware of this, you're in pine valley right now. pine valley, exteriors for pine valley were done -- >> is erica kane here. >> ruth joe are in the other

room waiting for you. the. all my children, the exteriors were done in southport, connecticut. you really have to have a food question for frank or something really relevant for al less sandra. then you said, "all my children." i will go local. we're here in pine valley, fairfield, connecticut, truth be told a lot of people don't go to new york from here, from the fairfield train station or from southport. if you're going to go into manhattan with your family for an even, and you will get off at grand central, frank, where are we going to go for dinner within walking distance and have an easy trip back to the train? because, everybody is always asked me, where am i supposed to could in midtown where i can have a real experience. >> it's impossible to answer in the sense like it depend on your budget. >> your priorities, what sorts of ethnic cuisines you're

willing to eat. >> pine valley. >> coming from pine valley. >> one answer is very universal answer. there is a restaurant on 39th street, fifth and sixth. famous chinese restaurant in manhattan. it serves szechwan food. it is extraordinarily. walkable from grand central and you have enough money to get ice cream at terminal when you get back. >> alessandra where are we having cocktail. >> the wonderful bar in the grand central. >> the apartment. >> the campbell apartments. >> campbell's apartment. >> that will be on me. >> thank you very much, because pine valley will never be the same after your visit. so thank you very much. >> mike, want to jump in? >> sure. since it is getting late in the evening, we're living through the golden age in many ways of female comedians. when do you think we'll see a female comedian take over a late-night network show? who would you like to see who breaks that barrier?

>> i like shell see handler. -- chelsea handler. >> it may be just that women who are successful in comedy don't want that job. it is not just that, the world is not that sexist. anymore, in that particular field. i think a lot of times if you're successful comedian and have your own show, write your own show have your hours and family, what else, why do you want to do stand-up basically five nights a week and it is exhausting and the guys who do it, all do it because they grew up watching that guy. these girls are, they watched lucille ball, but they didn't sit there and say i want to be johnny carson. it is self-perpetuating thing. i would like to see someone do it but i don't think it has to be. >> you mentioned lucille ball, just to follow-up, when lucy and desi moved to the country they

moved to westport too. should know that. >> really. >> it is getting late. let me just say, to all of us, for everyone, we really appreciated you're being, we want to thank you all. thomas jefferson, we certainly talked about history tonight. jefferson remind us that where the press is free and every man and woman is able to read all is safe. i feel a lot safer that we have critics like frank bruni and alessandro stanley out there. i want to thank everyone for being here to our national audience on c-span. we want to say good night from fairfield university and please remember, in november, on a election day, to please vote. thank you all from fairfield university. thank you. [applause] >> very nice. ♪ >> you are so great.

>> both the house and senate return today after a week-long break. both chambers start work at 2:00 p.m. eastern. the house will consider a number of bills today including one that would require the department of homeland security to include electromagnetic pulse events in the national planning scenarios. votes in the house scheduled for 6:30 p.m. following votes, members of the congressional black caucus will make floor speeches about the ferguson grand jury decision live on c-span. senate members will give general speeches until 5:30 and cast procedural votes for ambassadors to argentina and hungary with final votes possible tomorrow morning. congress has until december 11th to fund the federal government before a government shutdown. live coverage on c-span2. >> the chief economist at the international energy agency says energy security is a top global

issue. he also talked about the agency's report on oil and nuclear power, improving access to modern energy services and some of the trend in the industry. the center for strategic and international studies hosted this event last week. >> good morning. hi, my name is sarah ladislaw director of the energy and national security program here for the center for strategic and international studies. we're pleased to have all of you in the room and folks joining us on the web for one of our favorite events of the year. we have fatih birroll from the interhags energy agency. lead author on the world energy outlook, a publication we know all of you have come to count on as a source of insights and analysis on some of the key energy trend facing the energy sector and some ongoing

political and these days geopolitical issues we're discussing on a day-to-day basis. we're very pleased to have fat tee here. -- fatih. i don't know know how long we've been hosting. one of our consistently very popular events. we're pleased to have all of you here. shocking to have many of you here on a thanksgiving week such as this, this is a true testament to the work fatih and his team put together. we'll have him give his presentation of world energy outlook. focus on nuclear energy and special report that y'all put out in october? october, on sub-saharan africa. also just, insights on sort of policy direction, impacts on climate change, oil markets and things we've come to appreciate about the work that fatih's team puts together in each of these reports.

we'll have a bit of a presentation. we'll have discussion with all of you, looking forward to it. join me in welcoming fatih birol. [applause] >> so, thank you very much, sarah, and very good morning to you, ladies and gentlemen. it is always a great pleasure to come back to csis. csis is one of our favorite events and i can assure csis is one of our most favorite venues to present our outlook. we're always very happy to have this warm welcome from sarah, frank, and others. now today i would like to take you through our last 2014 that

we published two weeks ago and i will first try to take you through what is the context we're in and don't try to give a look at the future and after the presentation as sarah mentioned we'll be very happy to get your questions, comments, suggestions. i should also thank, there are many colleagues here who gave a hand to our work. i see here and i have my colleagues here and brent and ali helping us. frank gave a very booed contribution. thank you very much to all of them. now where are we today? first of all the current calm in the energy markets we believe

should not match the challenges we have in front of us. we believe energy security is set to move high up on the international policy agenda very soon, higher than it is today. we see oil prices coming to $80 in terms of the brent prices. lots of oil in the markets. someplaces plenty, demand is weak but the what is happening in the middle east may have major implications as i will try to highlight in a minute for the oil markets sometime soon. in terms of gas markets, we are seeing the same this time in europe. especially we see the gas

security is a permanent and serious issue and putting these two things together, looking at the countries today, we see some tensions such as iraq other countries, libya, russia, ukraine, our first question, despite the slowdown in prices, prices coming down, despite the less tension visible today, oil and gas security will be crucial for the international policy agenda in the next years to come. the second point, which is stressed point in our system is about the climate change. we have mixed signals, we are getting mixed signals about climate change. of course one very good news, and i will talk about it in a minute, u.s.-china joint commitment in terms of reducing

reducing -- following european's leaders having 40% reduction on the commitment. this of course is a good one but when we look at the numbers our report shows last year co2 emissions increased again 2.6% which puts the world perfectly in line with the temperature increase about 3.6 degrees celsius. which would have devastating implications for all of us and of this growth, 60% of growth came from one country last year, which is china. second, really important issue that we highlight every year and we follow very closely and provide policy recommendations is the fossil fuel subsidies for

the consumers. in many countries consumers at the pump station, electricity bill and so so on, pay artificiy low prices, extremely cheap prices, much, much cheaper than their economic value and may leave many of these countries, russia, caspian countries, asia, china, india, indonesia. what does this mean to put a subsidy to make the coal, oil, gas prices much cheap every than what they are, what the governments are saying? the governments are saying to the their consumers, to their citizens, please do dirt to -- i will pay you more money. this is more or less the translation. giving money to make things much cheaper than they are. please don't worry, use energy.

don't worry about efficiency, use it as much as you can. these are the messages given to by the governments to their citizens. with some of the recommendations and recommendations of others, some countries are taking lower oil prices as the opportunity to phase out those subsidies, such as one in indonesia. now there is a measure reform process in indonesia and some other countries but this measure is in trouble. third, i think it is good news is about on the efficiency front there are colleagues much more experienced than me work in the governments, they all knew, tell us, that efficiency is a concept, as a statement, came out in almost every government's programs, leaders, speeches. the models, presentations like

this, so on, for many, many years but for the first time we are seeing significant impact of efficiency policies on trends, on numbers, concrete effect in terms of slowing down the energy demand in the countries in the areas where those policies are introduced. this is -- i will give examples on that. one number i believe is a very interesting number, today in the world three out of four new cars sold are subject to fuel efficiency standards. that is new. it is very good. in japan, europe, followed by the u.s., especially obama administration putting new standards and then, follow by a china and now in india.

of. nowing we are going to see two stress points on climate change and energy security. they are very important points and complex. lots of interwoven aspects there. the question is, this change to are they going to be changed by the government policies as few of them in that direction or the change will be driven by the events themselves? and we do believe the first one may very well be better. so, looking at the future, in the future, we see a change about the contribution of different countries in the global energy demand. when you look at the last 10 years global energy demand increased by 30% in 10 years.

it is a big increase but half of that growth came from one country which is china. and in oecd countries, u.s., japan, european countries put together, their energy demand was more or less flat. we expect this to be flat for the next years to come. there is upward pressure with the economic growth but also strong downward pressure on efficiency gains. so more or less flat. the news is, at least for me, is that we expect china to slow down and this is, ladies and gentlemen, has an effect on everything, oil, coal, investments, co2 and everything, it will have measured effects. why is china slowing down? there are three reasons.

one, i imagine the efficiency policies, if there is one country i have to pick up and say, this country has very ambitious policies plus more importantly implements them and wants the results is china by far. second reason is the chinese economy is slowing down and changes the nature, moving from a heavy industry based economy to a slowly but surely a lighter economy. this is the second reason why we see a slowdown in the energy demand. and third, chinese population it is coming to a peak sometime soon and then it will decline, aging process, following the example of japan. it is all of these three reasons we expect the dragon will slow down with all its implications

on the energy markets and climate change. but, there is a new driver now of the global energy demand which is india plus east asia and the middle east countries. they are the engine of the global energy demand growth. are already seeing in the last two or three years, the numbers are changing while china, looking last two years, china's energy demand growth slow down considerably and others are growing very stronger. now something on the costs which is major issue in europe, in japan and other countries, are we going to lose our competitiveness vis-a-vis the united states? because of the cost of energy. and our answer is most likely

yes with the current policies in place, with the current policies in place most likely yes. what we have done, we look at the of arage -- average, cost of energy, and consumer pays in different countries, household, industry, what do they pay for energy, in the past and the future how does it change in different countries, the cost of energy to the economy, to the consumers. when i look at 2008, there was only some difference between europe and japan and the united states in favor of the u.s., and after the shale revolution, why we see the cost of energy for, decline in the united states, it increased almost everywhere else. which puts the united states in

a very advantageous position. the question is, what is in the future? what we expect is, it will still be significant gap in terms of cost of energy in the u.s. versus japan and europe but more importantly, perhaps much more importantly, we expect chinese cost of energy will be higher than even that of the united states. this is mainly as a result of china declining to reduce in the share of dirty but cheap coal and replacing it with other fuels. this is of course, an issue which is, a good news for the united states. we hold a strong position

vis-a-vis, almost all other major players here and therefore something to take note of. of course these trends may change as it is of efficiency policies, if you use energy more efficiently, we can lower the cost of energy down. now, an issue about oil markets. something that we feel we need to put the things in perspective after the shale revolution in the united states. the, many colleagues, many commentators, many of us think is a result of the shale oil revolution in the united states now and the price are going down, then the situation looks much, much better and more comfortable for many years to

come, a view that we strongly disagree. for the following reason. first of all, between now and the next decades, global oil demand will increase 14 million barrels a day. a modest but healthy increase in oil demand. the question is, who is going to meet the demand growth? which countries? when we look at around there are four strong shoulders. u.s., canada, about sill and middle east. all other countries put together, north sea, russia, mexico, some increase here, some decrease here but total in sum they see a total production a bit of a decline. so how are we going to meet that demand growth? the united states, we expect oil

production mainly coming from shale will increase through 2020. increase which is very good news for the global markets. today the consumers in the world. all over the united states that the price of oil recently and now are kept in a level which is providing a comfort zone for consumers. very good news. but when we get to the deposits of the shale oil, we expect the growth will be significant but this is far from meeting entire global oil demand growth and we expect our policies from the eia, sometimes soon that growth will come to a plateau. from canada which also expect strong growth coming from oil

sands, even though there are challenges. we believe those challenges can be overcome. we may see growth coming from canada which makes important contribution and the third strong shoulder is brazil. strong offshore growth production, we expect significant growth coming from brazil. but there is a big gap, especially around 2020s, when the production growth from gas slows down, where will the oil come from and there is only one address, which is the middle east. if you know anything, if you think we forgot the middle east but know, this is the middle east and it is the very reason why we are very, very, among other things, worried about the current developments

in the middle east because of this growth in the middle east, half of it needs to come from one country, which is iraq. now you look at the size of the reserves, now you look at the ongoing plans and virginity of the fields, not only our view but view of many serious organizations working on that. and in iraq, of course, very easy geology, to produce and ship the oil. everything is okay. the only thing is, you have to invest every year, $15 billion to make that oil come to the markets. but today, in this administration, have the appetite to invest in middle east countries, to invest in middle east countries are close to zero and assuming that

the issue of the security issue today in iraq and asia will not be resolved tomorrow, will be with us for some time to come, this we believe is a major issue. if you want to see production growth in 2020s in the middle east, we have to invest today. it is not like electricity button. just push the button, lights come on. many oil colleagues know better than me. five or six years lead time for the project. if you are unable to invest now, how will we see the production growth reach badly-needed in 2020s unless there's a major economic problem which would push the demand down. so from that point of view, we are very, worryied and here the

united states security is not only problem for our own countries. because today a bit more than 50% of the middle east oil goes to asia and tomorrow it will be more than 90% of the middle east oil will go to asia. . .

>> very successful growth of u.s. l production, and at the same time big demands within the european economies, with chinese going down, japanese recession. but the question is -- [inaudible] process for a very, very long time. our answer is we don't think that it will be like this for a very, very long time, but there will be a downward pressure on the process in the next couple of years. and this downward pressure may well mean that many companies may give a second look at the expanding class with the lower

price lifts. and especially the countries or the -- [inaudible] which requires certain level of process can be more effective than others. we may well see in north america current price levels, especially if there's a downward pressure further on, may push the companies to look at their capital expenditures next year. there are already some signs from some major companies to cut the spending in 2015, and this may well continue. in brazil a big part of the investments are carried out as a result of the cash flows coming through, and if they go down as a result of lower prices, this

may well put an effect on their investment plans. so the first, the very first effect of the lower prices putting downward pressure on the investment plans. and second, if the prices stay at these levels today, while it gives breathing space for the consumers, the comfort zone is very good, but then the prices go down, we may see an upward pressure on the demand growth if the economy is in a normal trajectory. so going from 100s to 80s may well give upward pressure on the demand side. so putting these two things together, lower prices putting downward pressure on the investments and the production growth especially in the high

cost areas, second, putting upward pressure on the demand growth may well mean a lower price environment, perhaps more reliance on the middle east oil which once again makes our security concerns even much stronger coupled with the investment -- [inaudible] we are facing today. now a couple of words on natural gas. we see that the natural gas is growing strongly almost everywhere in the world, and sometime soon will overtake oil as the number one fuel in the global energy mix in two decades' time or so.

there's one exception, it doesn't grow which is europe. in europe. natural gas is in a winter sleep. we think natural gas consumption in europe will go back to 2010 levels only around 2030s, okay? so, therefore, there is a big gap there. so, and for europe while the european demand will stay more or less stable, european import needs will increase significantly as a result of the huge declines in the domestic gas production. and the question is while europe is now today is worried that

they are getting a big chunk of their gas from one single source with the growing import is what to do. and one of the options here in the medium and longer term is lng. we see that the lng trade is increasing substantially. today 50% of the gas that is made by pipeline, 50% by lng, and we think this will grow significantly in favor of lng mainly as a result of many lng projects are coming to completion sometime soon. and not only the amount of lng is increasing, providing flexibility to the markets from 300 to almost 600 bcm, but perhaps more importantly the countries which produce lng are

increasing. lots of lng providing flexibility, plus the number of countries are growing. we expect the u.s., canada, african countries, mozambique, australia, lots of energy connected to the markets. this will make the hands of the consumers stronger in terms of the options they get in front of them. if they use their cars cleverly. however, we do not believe that so much lng coming to the markets will bring the gas process down to, as many people hope, to the u.s. gas price -- [inaudible] between the u.s. and the rest of

europe or japan for two reasons. one, the capital cost of lng from lng companies here are going up and, second, shipping gas from point a to point b is a cost of business. so to bring the u.s. gas to europe costs about $6.50, $7 just to bring it here plus the price, about $4 is $11. so this is, growing lng is a very important trend, good news for consumers from a flexibility point of view, but the hope that the gas prices will go down is not a view that we subscribe. now, a few things on coal markets.

we see that the coal demand is slowing down with all its implications. now, we have seen the coal demand peaking in europe in the mid '90s, '80s, then the u.s. mid 2005, and now the most important thing is we see chinese coal demand -- [inaudible] this is extremely important. even if you don't have anything to do with coal in your life, it is important for you because you have to do something with gas. and this will affect coal/gas price competition worldwide. [inaudible] this will affect the investment in renewable trends. and this is what we are projecting, and i can tell you these are our projections.

until last two years, chinese coal demand increased 10% per year on average like automatic pilot. in the last two years, the growth rate, '12 and '13, was about 5% per year. you may say 10%, 5%, what's the difference, the difference is 10% versus 5% in one year is equal to all the asian countries, coal consumption put together. so thailand, india, all of them is equal to 5%. so this is very, very important trend. and this is mainly driven by local pollution concerns. but we expect india to move up in terms of coal consumption very strongly and soon will take

u.s. as second large -- overtake u.s. as second largest coal consumer, second after china, and as i said, we see coal slowing down and already the first signals of that. if the coal industry would like to see the trend going up still, the buttons to be pushed are on the technology front. how to use coal to -- [inaudible] to other technologies in a friendly way. but this will have implications for the market equilibrium in many aspects. now, connected to power sector -- [inaudible] one issue, many call it, many governments think that the demand growth is in oecd

countries are flat because of demand growth, so the industry sector is not such an important sector anymore because our demands slow down. this, again, an idea we don't agree with because in the oecd countries today the need for building new power plants are not coming from the fact that the demand is growing, but mainly the existing capacity is retiring. we have to replace them. today -- [inaudible] about 6,000 power plants entire world, and in the next two decades we see 40% of the existing capacity leave us, they will retire. power plants are like the human

beings, they produce power to a certain age and then retire. this is the destiny. so this is what happens. and then they are thrown out, power plants. [laughter] so here what happens is that in the oecd countries even though the demand growth is almost zero, we have to build a lot of power plants to replace the, especially the -- [inaudible] capacity. and what is the capacity coming from in the future? this will be mainly renewable energies as a result of government support. and this is subsidies. but half of the growth of the new capacity -- [inaudible] hydropower followed by wind and solar.

and this is also significant amount of natural gas. so we see more and more an approach in many countries between renewables and natural gas. so the point is this retirement issue, especially in oecd countries, while it pose an important challenge in terms of finding the money, etc., it at the same time gives an opportunity be you want to give a new -- if you want to give a new shape to your power system. going from coal to gas or from gas to renewables -- [inaudible] whatever you want. we have now chance to mix the cards again in the oecd countries. and in every challenge, especially for europe is a major problem and perhaps in the u.s. as well, the --

[inaudible] of renewables are so strong that you do not have enough reliable power to support the renewable energyings. in europe in the next ten years, we need to build 100 gigawatts of uninterruptible power, an appetite for investment is close to zero now. and it's a major issues from a security supply point of view. so, therefore, to find the balance between renewable policies and the system that remains a challenge for europe and perhaps in other countries as well. now, renewables -- [inaudible] very strongly, and the good news is a big chunk of the renewables are coming from wind and solar

and hydropower, and the amount of subsidies we are paying them will soon come down. as a result of cost reductions. so this is definitely a very, very good development, that the cost of renewables in some cases are coming down on some wind and some solar technologies which is good from the economics point of view. but from a system reliability point of view, we still need a larger supply there. as sarah mentioned, every year we'll get all the fuels in general, but one fuel in particular. it can be one year oil, one year efficiency, one year coal, and this year we look at the nuclear power.

we see that many countries in the world are still interested in building nuclear power plants after fukushima. we expect the strong growth, and this growth will come mainly from oecd countries -- mainly, but not exclusively -- and they are driven by three factors. renewables, many countries believe it is good for energy security. second, it is reliable -- [inaudible] of electricity, and third, a very important tool to reduce carbon emissions. so as a result of these drivers -- security, economics and the --

[inaudible] we expect renewables will grow, but with the current policies we do not see a nuclear renaissance in sight. in europe we are seeing a big decline of nuclear capacity mainly as a result of retirement s as there is, because of the age -- [inaudible] because we build most of the nuclear power plants in europe 50, 60 years ago. and as a result of some governments such as germany, belgium and others, want to phase out their nuclear plants in a premature way. and, of course, with all respect to all the governments to choose this way or that way, i personally believe it is the governments' responsibility -- [inaudible] technology, they have to make

sure that -- [inaudible] with which technology is going to be compensated, built and what are the economic and security and climate change implications of this new plan. i think this is very important. in japan we expect slowly but surely we will see nuclear plants come in the -- [inaudible] after the fukushima incident. and there will be some new, a few new additions. but we will also see some retirements in japan as well. but in sum, we expect the japanese nuclear power plants will still play important role in the japanese, in nuclear -- in japanese energy future but will be less pronounced than

before fukushima. yes, we expect some net increase , there is six gigawatt plants under construction, especially those areas -- [inaudible] have a more regulated nature. india and russia, they are making significant amount of efforts to build nuclear power plants. both of them are building today, especially india. russia has huge plans. we are discounting their plans, taking it to feasibility filter. but, ladies and gentlemen, the biggest growth in terms of nuclear comes from one country only which is china. about 50% of the new nuclear capacity in the world will come from china.

and look at today. today we have 80 gigawatts of plants under construction. half is being constructed in china. so what are the implications of that? first one -- there are many, but i want to say two of them -- the first one is china is today developing its new, its own nuclear technology. and by building, constructing a lot of nuclear power plants, bringing the cost down, and we may well see china soon to be a serious competitor to western countries in terms of exporting the nuclear technology. today the main nuclear technology countries -- north

america, europe, japan, korea -- we may well see china with a new generation and lower costs may well be serious competitor there with all of its implications. second, today in the world 80% of the nuclear plants are in oecd countries, 20% in non-oecd countries. as a result of this picture in two decades of time, it will be 50% o to ecd -- oecd, 50% non-oecd countries of the nuclear power plants worldwide, and, of course, this has lots of implications in terms of climate change, in terms of energy security and all other issues.

for nuclear today we see two major challenges. one is the finance, the process, the other is the public concerns. and in terms of public concerns, we think governments who really seriously want to address the nuclear plant must listen the concerns of the people and try to address them. there are two of them we want to highlight. the first one is that we expect in the next two decades or so we will see as a result of natural and policy-related retirements, we will see 200 nuclear power plants are going to retire. and and up til now we have experienced worldwide retirements about ten nuclear power plants, more or less. decommissioned.

so how are we going to deal with these 200 nuclear power plants retiring, how are we going to decommission them, what to do? and in most of the countries we are not well prepared how to deal with them. and this is not only for the countries who want to proceed nuclear policy, but also the ones who want to say good-bye to the nuclear policy. what are we going to do with these 200 nuclear power plants? a serious challenge in front of us. the second one is about the waste. today as a result of generation of nuclear power in the last few decades, we have about 350,000 tons of nuclear west, and this will be doubled based on the projections i show to you coming from different countries.

and today when we look at the world, the attempts to store, dispose the nuclear waste is very, very limited. there are many temporary solutions, but a permanent solution -- [inaudible] efforts are not at the maximum what they have to be and, therefore, our goal is to, that there's a need for concerted, intelligent efforts to find a solution to the high-level waste once again within the international coalition framework. and we have enjoyed very much the proposal, the suggestion we get from mr. hamre e in that context. so before finishing an important issue, a critical issue which is

the climate change. now, energy sector, as we all know, is the main, responsible sector when it comes to climate change. why? more than two-thirds of the emissions causing climate change come from the energy sector. so we wanted to look where we are today in terms of climate change. because the scientists told us that in order to keep the world more or less like today, temperature increase should be maximum two degrees celsius which is, if i am not wrong, nine degrees fahrenheit, if i am not wrong. so we wanted to see where are we today with the --

[inaudible] mother nature told us, human beings, i give you a budget, an allocation of -- [inaudible] in the atmosphere which is 2,000 gig terrors. if you -- gigatons. if you do more than this, you just be ready to be in a different world. scientists agree two degrees to the world leaders a few years ago. when we look at where we are, as of today we human beings already consumed half of the budgets given to us. so with the allowance -- [inaudible] already used to the industrial revolution, most of it, by using a lot of coal, oil and gas putting a lot of carbon in the atmosphere.

and if we continue with our current policies, with the projections i show to you which takes into account the new policies put in place, we see that around 2040 we are completely exhausting the budget given to us. so then because the emissions in 2040 about 80% of the emissions in 2040 is already determined today. the investments we are making today. so we are looking into the future. so it means if we don't have a major change in energy investment plans, we may well say good-bye to the world -- [inaudible]

and in that context, to give a signal to the energy investments, clean energy investments and efficiency, i believe we have a historical chance which is the chance in paris next year, 2015 paris meeting. and before that meeting we have heard very encouraging news. first of all, european union made a statement as now a package reducing emissions by 40% in 2030. second, president obama and president xi jointly announced a commitment for both countries. and this is extremely important.

for three reasons. one, numbers. u.s. plus china responsible for 45% of the emissions, plus europe 15%. altogether 60% of emissions. there is a political commitment at highest level. the countries which show responsible leadership at the internal level. 28 european countries plus united states plus china. this is in terms of numbers. second, this, i believe -- especially china and u.s. being a part of the game -- this will inject a very strong political momentum to the paris process. it will be more and more

difficult for the countries who are other significant emitters who will not, who will not be a part of the coalition of finding a solution. it's going to be very difficult for them -- [inaudible] not to be part of the countries who want to find a solution. and these countries are the 28 european countries, u.s. and china, the political momentum, number two. all these countries. number three, i believe the key issue here is china. in europe, and i believe in north america, in asia, many people who drag their feet to find a solution to climate change said, say and will say that we can do a lot of things to reduce emissions. but if china doesn't move, we cannot find a solution, so why

should we punish our economy if china, the largest emitter, doesn't move? and now china making such a commitment for the first time if you wish we can discuss this target, what it means, for me taking the argument from the hands of the people who drag their feet. to sum up, i am optimistic, cautiously optimistic about this -- [inaudible] and it may be well our last chance to give that signal to the clean energy investment so that we can be in line with the, our two biggest targets or at least we don't throw the two

biggest targets in the trash. currently, the clean energy investments for efficiency, for renewables, for nuclear and so on are about $400 billion. this -- in our -- [inaudible] scenario which finishes everything around 2040, the budget is closed, they are already increasing to us. but to be able to see to save the world, if i may say so, to save the planet, we need to increase the green energy investment four times greater than today. and this will not happen if there is not a serious signal coming to investors that they will be punished or they will be rewarded with their investments coming depending on the technology they choose. and -- [inaudible] may well be a part of that very

new wave or accelerating the clean energy investment trends. so, ladies and gentlemen, if i can finish up our words, i believe in terms of energy security there is a growing risk at present in a number of parts of the world that are very important strategically for the energy sector. iraq, libya, other middle east countries, russia, north africa, these are very crucial countries, provinces. and as such, the current lower oil prices should not disguise the challenges we have, and i

believe energy security will be a crucial issue in the next years to come. [inaudible] raises concerns about the investment flow in the region as a result of lack of security, lack of predictability. and if the investments do not come in a timely manner, we may well see the future p production -- [inaudible] is very, very big, and this may bring challenges for the oil markets. many countries believe nuclear energy can play an important role in terms of the energy security improving -- [inaudible] addressing climate change, but the public concerns remain a major issue together with financing and if the governments

take the nuclear expansion plans seriously. we are in the opinion that the success story in paris may well change the flow of investment for clean energy technologies, renewables, efficiency, nuclear power, switch from coal to gas. but to do that, we have to see an agreement, a major political political -- [inaudible] coming from paris. and as such, the recent china/u.s. deal following the european targets is a very welcome step. and finally, we at the iea, we believe that the market instruments are the best to address challenges for sure, but

looking at the complexity of these two major problems we are facing -- energy security, oil, gas, economics, defense, all of these things -- plus the climate change, so many things are involved, there is a need that these market policies are put in a framework by far-sighted government policies to steer us in a right direction. thank you and thank you very much for your attention. [applause] >> thank you for that wonderful and comprehensive -- well, there's probably a lot more than what you highlighted there, but certainly a lot of issues to talk about. we have about 20 minutes for conversation. i'm going to open up to the audience in just a moment, but i thought maybe i'd start with a

couple questions that i had. one is you were, you were pretty pessimistic about sort of the prospect for increasing investment in the middle east given sort of what you term as turmoil, right? but you were also pretty positive about investment in brazil which to some outside perspective could look kind of tumultuous as well. how much of your view on both of those countries is predicated on a security environment versus the sort of investment/commercial framework, governance architecture that both put on the table? because i could argue that for both of those regions those are really the crux of the issues that dissuade investment. >> thank you. for main reason why we are -- can i wouldn't say pessimistic, but we are questioning growth -- [inaudible] lack of investment not because of the economies, but because of the security issue here.

the current lack of security and the unpredictability of the middle east may well mean that some key investments are not carried out especially in iraq where we expect half of the growth to comeñi from, and whene talk with the iraqi colleagues today, we see thatñi the appetie for investment is almost close to zero. this is the reason why we are concerned. for brazil it's a different story. it's the story of the ability of petro gas to be able to raise the necessary funds. and as we highlighted in our report and also i tried to do it now, if the prices go to $80 and below, we may see that the brazil may be one of the regions

which will have the toughest challenges because their investments are basically financed through cash flows. and if they go down, they need to go and increase their debts which would be a major issue. of course, there's an important question mark about the production growth coming from -- [inaudible] >> maybe turning the page a little bit on sort of the issue of subsidies, an issue that i would give, you know, you all and the iae in general tremendous credit for actually quantifying a lot of how we talk about energy subsidies on both the fossil-based and renewable sides. you mentioned there was progress being made on sort of the subsidies issue. how can you -- can you characterize a little bit the sort of nature of that progress? because i think one of the ways you sort of talked about it was sending a signal about sort of using energy inefficiently or using sort of one kind of energy versus another.

for a lot of the countries where these subsidies exist, one of the real political challenges of getting them removed is they see them as sort of an access issue or equitability issue. are we becoming smarter about how we implement sanctions, and are you guys seeing evidence of that in your research? >> i think the subsidies -- >> [inaudible] >> exactly. subsidies are being questioned by many governments mainly because of the pressure on the budget. because governments are feeling this big pressure on their budget, and it is becoming each for the oil-producing countries becoming a major problem. in indonesia the main reason that they move ahead is because of the, because of the government budgets cannot afford any more, and there was a new government, freshly-elected

government strong confidence of the voters, and they took a very good step in that direction very much in line with our suggestions. in middle east many governments are taking steps especially in power generation. today in middle east we use two million barrels of oil to generate electricity. from economic point of view, this is not economic, i should say -- [laughter] this is something like that. you, to run your car, you -- [inaudible] so this is to run your car. it's not economic really at all. so, but the governments are seeing it, and they are, they are moving to gas especially and others. again in middle east, i say in middle east because half of those subsidies are in the

middle east countries, it is, for me, it is unbelievable that on one hand governments want to improve the renewable energies, market share, on the other hand they are putting subsidies for fossil fuels. this is, i mean, this is unbelievable because you push the renewables in order to have a better chance to compete in terms of prices. you -- [inaudible] to fossil fuels. and you have no chance. this is definitely not -- [inaudible] and you say we work on africa this year, and one of the reasons why people say we have subsidies for energy is to protect the poor. and our numbers show that out of this money, $550 billion, only 8% of the subsidies go to 20% lowest income groups, and metropolitan 90 percent of the subsidies go to medium and high income groups.

so it doesn't help the poor, it helps more the medium and higher income levels. so, therefore, we have some suggestions in the context for g20 how to realize this subsidy reforms and -- [inaudible] this year with the turkish g20 presidency to move the subsidy program further. >> okay. one final question from me, and then we'll open it up to the audience. and you know i can't get away without asking a climate change question. one of the interesting things, you know, for those of us who have read your report for, you know, years upon years and look at sort of the climate messages you've brought, i think one year it was sort of the door is almost closed, and then the next year it was, well, just avoid the lock-in. you basically said last chance for two degrees, is that how you're really characterizing paris and putting your long-term

forecasting hat on, what happens -- what needs to happen in paris to feel confident that we're on that path, and if we're not, what comes next? >> i mean, -- [inaudible] tomorrows in 20 years of oil, gas, coal, co2 trends are determined by today's investments. so there's a long time. the decision and the impact, there's a big time here. so the 2040 trends, 2040 co2 emissions are determined in today's investments. so if we are not able to get -- [inaudible] and get a new impetus to clean energy investments on this, as i said, on this is a major economic -- unless there is a major economic downturn, we have to say good-bye to the world.

this is what we are seeing. and to be, to be very frank, if we aren't able to get the paris agreement which is the one which could give a signal to all the countries, investors and others that climate change is a major issue when you make your business plans, if it doesn't go through, it can be -- [inaudible] to a ceiling to some type of allocation of responsibilities, then we better try to find out what are the ways to get used to a different planet. >> okay. okay, we're going to take some questions now. we've only got about 10, 15 minutes, so i'm going to group them in threes. please wait for the mic, identify yourself and put your question in the form of a question, please. we'll start right here. [inaudible conversations] >> blaine --

[inaudible] just a europe question about the price differential you mentioned and the competitiveness issue. is there a possibility that if europe increased its own shale gas production, that some of that competitiveness issue would be addressed? >> and then we'll go right here. right here. >> hi. -- [inaudible] china daily you. do you have any comments on china's nuclear energy plan, i mean especially the government announced last week to triple the nuclear power generating capacity by 2020 -- [inaudible] and the construction. thank you. >> do we have a question on this side? right over here. oh -- [inaudible] did you have one? jamie, go ahead. i lied. >> thanks so much for your comments. in the short term, this week is the opec meeting, and you are unique in that you have worked

for both opec and now at the iea. hoop do you think the u.s. shale boom -- how much do you think the u.s. shale boom is going to impact both this meeting, but also the next yore to two -- year to two years? >> okay, one more. >> will cole, johns hopkins. question on nuclear power. some industry people would contend that the prospects of smrs could give a very positive stimulus to the industry because they would be cheaper, shorter construction times, safety, etc. yet none of these have been licensed so far. i'm just curious, how did you treat that issue in your analysis going forward? >> the europe we have today is significant amount of shale gas deposits in poland, germany,

france, u.k., ukraine. but we cannot expect that in the next ten years it will be bring a major contribution to european gas supply. having said that, if we start to work very hard and if we get rid of the dogmatic barriers we have in front of us -- not to make use of shale gas -- it may well help us at least to complicate the decline in the european natural gas production and as such could be an important factor in improving the competitiveness of europe. this will not be enough to close the gap between europe and the united states, but it can definitely help in terms of narrowing that gap and also good for the gas security of europe. now, nuclear energy in china,

this is definitely one of the most important push that china has in its energy history when i look at our numbers. china's making a lot of efforts on efficiency on renewables, but when i look at the nuclear numbers, they are very, very impressive. which means half of the growth in the global nuclear capacity will come only from can china. this reminds me that at that scale china between mid 1980s and 1990s, in ten years of time, brought electricity to half a billion people. it was 500 million people didn't have access to electricity. but there was a big, collective action, and china -- [inaudible] at the same level, it will be very important for using the share of coal in the chinese

power gen mix, it will be very good for reducing the co2 emissions, and it will bring china as important nuclear power and in terms of nuclear capacity, china will overtake united states as number one nuclear power in the world. so as such, i think the chinese emerges as a major nuclear power producer -- [inaudible] nuclear landscape if other countries do not change their policies. the third question, yes, what do we expect from the next opec meeting a question that i will not be able to comment, but i can tell you the following: shale oil from united states, oil from canada, these are extremely important developments in the hydrocarbon sector of

revolutionary nature, and this provides a lot of comfort, this provides energy security zone for many people. as such, they are very, very important. however, i would highlight that we will -- [inaudible] forget that even these two success stories, we will still need middle east oil in the future. i think we should, therefore, view the current investment issues, current security issues in middle east from that angle. we shouldn't be blind which numbers we are seeing today. there's also tomorrow, and this is very important to put these in perspective. smr are important especially given the growing appetite of me merging countries who cannot finance nuclear power plants,

but we need to see the visibility and transparency from one country to another. but as we have highlighted in our report, they may well play important role in emerging countries where the finance is limited but the electricity demand is growing and very limited natural resources. >> okay. let's take a couple more questions. we've got time for one more quick round, so we've got one back there, we'll do one over here. >> yeah, nina gardener, strategy international. hi, fatih. just reacting to something you just said, how do you square the whole tar sands issue with the two degrees centigrade target? i don't see how you can square that up. >> okay. and then a question over here. >> [inaudible]

>> okay. just because i think your mic wasn't on, it was a question about gas price decline in asia. and one more right here. [inaudible] >> jeff -- [inaudible] how certain are you or confident are you that co2 is the most important, it's the most important, but how confident are you the other gas pollutants contribute to global warming? thank you. >> so oil sands are, as you describe tar sands, they do emit more emissions than conventional oil. this is true.

but if you put them, if you put it in a context how much additional co2 comes from oil sands vis-a-vis conventional oil, the difference is really, really very limited. i will tell you the numbers. in our report we expect that the oil sands would increase about three million barrels per day. okay? if we assume three million barrels per day wouldn't come from oil sands, but would come from -- [inaudible] these three million barrels per day, the difference of additional co2 oil sands unless it's conventional is equal to the not even one day of emissions of china in an entire year.

23 hours. very small additional co2 emissions growth. yes, there's an increase there, but it is very, very small if you put it in context. and if you want to see oil sands to play role for energy security or for something else, then we have to find a way to -- [inaudible] 23 hours of china's daily co2 emissions growth. it can be carbon capture, it can be efficiency, it can be renewables through other technologies. gas prices in asia, i didn't say that it will not be a downward pressure on the prices, but what i said is that we should expect that it will be the u.s. prices everywhere. there would be at least a downward pressure if it comes there, but we shouldn't also forget that the cost of capital of building a lng facilities are

going up. and, therefore, perhaps we will not see $16, clash 17, but we will see downward pressure, but it would with very much far from what we have in the united states today. but the gas will definitely have to provide some flexibility in the markets, in asia, it will also bring downward pressure on the prices. [inaudible] other co2, methane is other gas and there are many others, but co2 when we're talking about the energy sector, co2 is one of the most potent gas to get -- [inaudible] methane and is the reason, but more than two-thirds of the emissions of co2 comes from the energy sector. it is the very reason we look at co2. but other gases, methane, and

for methane there are -- [inaudible] belongs to us have to reduce them, and it is easier to fix. it is true some technical and -- [inaudible] measures. >> okay. well, i think we've come to the end of our time. i just wanted to thank fatih for being here. i know you've got to go to new york and continue the tour. but, you know, given your description of retirement and the power generation sector, we know there's no, no risk of you retiring anytime soon. [laughter] so we'll hope to see you again here sometime in the very near future. i want to thank you and your team for the excellent work that you bring to the broader energy discussion. i thank our team a for putting together today's event, and please join me in thanking fatih. [applause] [inaudible conversations]

[inaudible conversations] >> the senate about to gavel in, returning from a weeklong break. they'll be in general speeches until 5:30 when they'll cast procedural votes on nominations for u.s. ambassadors to argentina and hungary. confirmation of the nominees could come tomorrow morning. and on the other side of the capitol, the house is also

gaveling in now after a round of votes on land and water bills at 6:30, members of the congressional black caucus will be speaking from the floor about the grand jury decision in ferguson, missouri. live coverage of the house on c-span. the president pro tempore: the senate will come to order. the chaplain, dr. barry black, will lead the senate in prayer. the chaplain: let us pray. eternal master, you're too good to be true. repeatedly, throughout our history, you have been our anchor. continue to bring stability and unity to our lawmakers as they