ryl attkisson on her experiences reporting on the obama administration. new year's day american history tv on c-span3 juanita abernathy on the role of women in the civil rights movement. benjamin carp on the link between alcohol and politics in prerevolutionary new york city. at 8:00 p.m. cartoonist, patrick oliphant draws 10 presidential caricatures as and they discuss some of the most memorable qualities. new year's day on c-span networks. for our complete schedule go to c-span.org. next on booktv, senator john mccain recounts america's armed conflicts through the use of "13 soldiers quod. joseph plum martin, revolutionary in war. michael mansoor a navy seal in iraq and many others.

senator mccain speaks at the national press club in washington d.c. for the about 45 minutes. >> senator john mccain, you know all about him. just going to tell you just a little bit. served in the u.s. navy from 1954 to 1981. he was elected to the u.s. house of representatives from arizona in 1982. and the senate in 1986. he was the republican presidential candidate in 2008. he is now serving his fifth term in the senate. and myron belkind over here is our 107th president of the national press club. he has had a 42-year career with the associated press and he has covered many world leaders. myron received his ba in 1961 from ohio state university and an ms with high honors in '62

from columbia university graduate school of journalism where he won a pulitzer traveling fellowship. when he retired in 2004 myron joined the national press club and was asked to assume leadership of the international correspondents committee. he worked to expand the club's international activities and also attract more members from the international media international organizations and diplomatic missions in washington d.c. also, in that year he began his second career as a professorial instructor at george washington university. as far as the rest of it i will leave this up to mr. myron belkind and you can tell by his impressive journalistic background he will do a great job with senator mccain and

ask some very pertinent questions about the book. then we will talk to you all later for the q&a. so gentlemen it is all yours. >> thank you jan. >> thank you. [applause] >> senator mccain, i'm truly honored to welcome you on this veterans day. >> thank you myron. >> in my capacity as jan said as the club's 107th president of the national press club. >> at least you are president of something. >> right. [laughter] my classmate at columbia, pat buchanan made a similar remark. i'm also honored to welcome you as a member of the national press club's american legion post 20. your book published today and i also want to acknowledge mark salter, your coauthor and friend. mark, can you stand and be acknowledged for a moment.

there he is in the back. [applause] senator mccain, your book, published today appropriately on veterans day, profiles 13 soldiers from 13 wars, from the revolutionary war to iraq. among all of the millions who served in the military how did you select those 13 to be the subjects representing each war? what criteria did you use? how did you do it? >> well thank you myron and could i just say thank you to the press club for hosting this event and, by the way after i lost running for president i slept like a baby. sleep two hours wake up and cry. sleep two hours wake up and cry. i'm very happy to be here with you and i'm especially honored to not only have my coauthor and really the hardest working of our partnership mark salter

here. we've been together for many years but also mary rhodes and her daughter samantha are here who we write about her experience in the gulf war. mary i'm honored you're here and thank you for your service to our country especially on mother's day. would you stand up. [applause] thank you mary. and, myron you've really put your finger on one of the hardest parts because we tried to portray different values and virtues that different individual have in different conflicts and different times and to try to put them into the context to some degree in the conflict in which they fought. for example joseph plum martin, is our first subject. 15 years old. joined the connecticut militia. got out and then went back in

the army, the continental army. nearly starved to death. wrote many years later a biography of his experiences that is remarkable. these soldiers went without eating for days. they were subject to all kind of private visions much less, what at that time was the best professional army in word, the brittish army. and a couple of times things were so bad they almost mutinied. then he wrote about later on. do you know he waited 30 years before he got a pension? so he was much his times and our last one is mike mansoor, who was a seal, a navy seal, a highly trained highly cape ab, highly motivated to the point where he sacrificed his life to save the lives of his fellow

seal members. the distance between those two is really quite remarkable and of course then we have monica lynn brown who was a medic in the afghan conflict and when you read her story of how she not only her courage but her capabilities. in our civil war 20% of the casualties of anybody who was wounded actually lived. now thanks to what we do now, 90% of those who are wounded are saved. when you read of the training, capabilities the equipment that medics carry on with them, they carry everything but a weapon. and she an ied went off. she rushed n one of the reasons why we talk about her because it should really dispense with any arguments about whether women are capable of engaging in, fighting in combat or not. i think i think the argument

should be over. young women today i believe are entirely capable to serve. [applause] so i guess i'm sorry for giving awe long answer, but that is one of the difficult parts because you want to try to portray people in the context of their times and their particular virtues that they displayed and in a way that was, a couple of our people are scoundrels. they're not, some of these are not the most model citizens to say the least but at their moment in time they performed and that's really what we're trying to say here. >> thank you. specifically among the 13 as senator mccain acknowledged a few minutes ago we are truly honored to have with us today sergeant mary rhodes, who served in the persian gulf as army reservist in the 14th quartermaster detachment from western pennsylvania. i know it might be hard to say

this in front of her but it might actually be easy. why did you choose her to be the subject of the one soldier profiled from the persian gulf war? >> well part of this context is that you know, we used to have very large standing army and that, that standing army which is all volunteer has gotten smaller and smaller. so we now rely enormously on our guard and reserve. and our guard and reserve today well years ago i'll be honest with you, they were kind of, especially the guard, they were kind of people if there was a fire or, a flood or something they were called out and direct traffic and that kind of thing. today our guard and reservists do everything our combat, our regular military, army, marine, air force and navy do and better in some respects, i would think you would agree mary, flying c-130s around as our

guard does, reservist who is are ready and trained to go. mary was a reservist. she heard the call, she answered the call and of course was saw a very tragic event which frankly she thinks about every day, every single day and yet here an ordinary citizen. pennsylvania ordinary life. she went to a far off lan and cradled her dear friend after they were killed by a scud attack. one of the things we were trying to point out is that we now have a lot of citizen soldiers who respond to the call and to me, mary epitomized that part of our society. and by the way our vietnam veterans, were not well-treated when they came home. that is just a fact. the po whichs were probably -- p.o.w.'s as you recall were only

ones treated as heroes. i'm so pleased the honor we bestow on our men and women who are serving. it is most uplifting probably one of the happiest days we have for me is the honor given to these young men and women who are serving and who have served. [applause] >> as you just alluded to a few minutes ago, and as you write in that chapter about the persian gulf war the persian gulf war occasioned the largest single deployment of women to a combat zone in american military history. 13 of them would be killed as you point out. my question is, when you graduated from the u.s. naval academy in 1958, did you ever envision that women would in your lifetime play such an active role including in combat, in the u.s. military?

and did you initially favor that development and do you feel there is any need to have any restrictions, even today placed on the way women serve in the u.s. military? >> in answer to your question, no, and no. when i graduated i obviously did not have that although, you know in world war ii there was a much greater service than women are given credit for in world war ii. whether it be rosy the riveter or whether it is womens army corps. we call them different names including in the nursing corps. so i i don't think women ever got the credit they did for their service in world war ii but now, look, there are certain standards we expect everybody to meet male, female gender neutral, they meet those

standards, they serve and i have run into some really, really capable professional women that have risen to positions of command. our number two member of the united states navy, second vice chief of naval operations is a woman. i'm very proud of that. and they command squardrons and they command ships and so i think the argument is over to be honest with you. i think it's done. and it should be done. i meep, but there was a time in our history where women had a different role in our society and now thank god they have, as far as i can tell, an equal role in our society so they should have the equal opportunity to serve. >> turning to vietnam where you flew combat missions over north vietnam until you were shot down in october 1967, captured by the

north vietnamese and held as a prisoner of war until 1973. i know many persons and i have spoken with them, who say if someone else was the author of "13 soldiers" you would be the serviceman selected to be profiled as a the soldier representing vietnam. for your book you chose the pilot known as wild weasels leo thorsness. a recipient of the medal of honor. at times you shared a big cell with him and dozens of other p.o.w.'s. give us a perspective the valor which you write throughout your book why was leo th-orsness so special? >> he was a special friend, but what he received the congressional medal of honor before of what happened on a combat mission weeks before he shot down and became a prisoner. my friend, i try to make this as

short as possible but still the most heavily defended airspace in history was the airspace over north vietnam. there were literally tens of thousands of anti-aircraft guns. there were thousands of surface-to-air missile emplacements and they also had mig aircraft at various bases that would come out on occasion. they didn't come out all the time because they couldn't really match up to ours but they were there a constant threat too and unfortunately we watched those sams being off-loaded from a russian freighter, taken off and taken up by truck and put in in place. we were not allowed to strike them. then they were later fired at us. don't ask me to explain. >> you say in your book 50 years later those restrictions still hurt. >> still makes me mad because we lost so many good men to those surface-to-air missiles which we

probably, some of them anyway we could have destroyed before they ever got to their emplacement. by the way the surface-to-air missile sites we have very strong evidence were run by russians, not by vietnamese. and pilots in the migs we also found out were most likely russians but so in order to counter these very significant threat of the surface-to-air missiles they had this group called wild weasels. they would go in early and try to track and attack the surface-to-air missile sites in the area where the main attacks were going to come in. they came in before the main body came in and they stayed until afterwards. as long as story this long story short as possible, he came in with his wing men. his wing man was shot down and we had ways of rescuing pilots. we could send in propeller driven planes to secure the area

so helicopters could come in and pick them up. he spent his time trying to protect the area where the plane went down. had to go refuel. came back, attacked by migs. shot down two migs. was circled some more. had more missiles fired at him. went back for another refueling. then came back again. remember he could have gone, left the first time. they were shot at. they surface-to-air missiles fired at them. they kept circling over where the two pilots had gone down from the previous shoot-down. one of the pilots, aircraft, the guy got lost and so they had to go and guide him back to the tanker. he had no fuel left. and to make a long story short he glided in to the base and in thailand and soon as the wheels touched down on the runway, the engine stopped because he was out of fuel. one of these incredible stories of aviation skills and hero

itch. and -- heroism, and valor. he was doing that because of the loss o his fridnd to t t lpisriend on t ground. so it was aomnaon o bravery,omtment,ove, all ofhohat make up teeal denition o the wo vor en i'm sry tell y th a f weeks ler leo was otow aen up i t same cellit him myears lar whenhe vtnamesuts al tether b i tl you he aonrfanndemns inspirati to me. >seto-- [alause] wt to crn to cpterou and theiv war wn your subject is oliver wdell hoes j who re fm firs litent to ctains a as

memberf t 2h massacseet vuner co come be serving on sshusettsupreme court u.s. pre ur justice fr 30 years, from 1902 to 12. i thoug o o the mostong paag in your book, when you wrote of aemial day address holz dived- holmes differedn 188 he recalleda of hallen frnd in the civil war ho rerredo all those that fought i tt war hhe men were transfoedy war and byuffering and loss that attended t transformio he callet,uote ourre go fortune uque, that i our yth o hrts were touched withire. given t uso learn a the

outset life is profoundnd passnate thing. at was oliver wde holmes, jr. what say sat jn mccn ho warraformed yourif and how te expiences etm spe yourif thereafter incdi as united at sat sce98 >>ell, cld i say cple of wordsbout olive weelhoes erwas the regimenth ty caedhearvard regimen gruasf hva b also some gmaspki immigras were aut in thisegen geernd they fought aome ofhe bodst encnters theiv war. casualty rateser vy hd. he was wnd inheec wnd ithec and you can image whathat would ve en like. d as h was msi the baleelhis father whoas a faus autr those days,

oler wde hmer. walkedhe battlefie srcng fo s son an bied th he was dead. and then caught up with him larn. rerkable sry and h coinued ight i these baleand they tokncdiy ghaslties. yo know, my frien w look ck at allhe cflicts the it states haseen iold in a theloie ofll was ouwn civil war. brotr ainst broer family against faly relyemkablehe you tnk ou thearnageh mav been nessary in order figu out what kd of aatn wereeally goingo beut i boy,tas a huge terrie st oler wenll holmesaldt th bchersri that pai a soe was really remarkable man an he wasoreverhanged.

he leftor hvards idealiicruding you mn and realities oar transform m io aeast but he never forgnd he ge secs as morial days a he h all o his d as a jurist h would in h lunchoork i an amnitionox t remin hse ofhe wt he a h cra hadndgone. in answer to yr queion it hardo answer what tt expericeid to me f me. first of allhe oious. en you snd five 1/ years in caivity you cherishreom ca igiow mh i appreciateve d of freed and tha hasot dimisd in y ynhe my yrs sse bu also ias bss t srv

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pes how youo i. i think umility is a very important asctorll f us whetr it be mb vetans. >> can dto mor >> i was toldheas question but that theasqution but i thk e senator has the prerogative say that we wl have two ore. >> this is theix book artingit the frs phase of my fath's. is tre nt bok coming >> arc and i he ben lki. mo ot cdit i'd like to say goeso s hard rk. w thinngbo maybe somethg retospect at we might tak out presidtial campais and me ofthe

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nit ig wt night wt o est the firsmutu. [alae] and to you senator mccain it is an honor to have you here tonight. we will always remember that her and say of 2014 with senator john mccain. thank you so much and i know that you are gng to stay to sign bks. we can't thank you engh. [applause]

i guess in february of 81 the rst serious challenge i had as the w majoity leader ofhe rst republican leader sin

bi of california, that the first challenge i hdwas when we hveo had to vote on the de limit inrease andassume that went okay. i don't blieve that you are going to win this. weot tem together and we talked and arried out and it was clear we we going to lose th thing. we all left te office and as we out i said i have a big proble i don' think i can getheto voteor this debt imit increase. soe came back and, jesse helms, and they were all gather ther. they said you areot going to te for this debt lmit

increase. he said i understand that. ani want you to know i never voted for a debt lmit inease. i'm going to do it and if s are you. howard bakerwas 88-years-od when he diedhis year. you can e the rest of that intervi at eit stern on c-span the enter first paycheck and internatnastudies holding a panel discussion on the future viability d noc competitiveness of coal as aengy resource in the u.s. and around theorld. this is 90 minutes. >> good afternoon, ladies an gentlemen. i'm from the brookings institution where am a senior

fellow in the energyecurity initiative. it'salways nice to come back to csi -- csis. it's like returning home to former colagues. so ithink csis ver much fo inviting me here to moderate this exciting panel. we have a stellar lineuptoday. we are going to hear from the office of gas coal and electrity in te markets division of he iea one of the mot fluential forecasters and technology. we have an old frienand also former brookings colleague shoichi itoh of the japanese government come and we have

mr. samuel tumiwa of te velopment bank and one of the agency's exacting thecol market since i think ost forecasts predict we look out the next 25 or 30 years that asia will probably be not the leading oup market for the use of cal certainly the most important. >> the format today is we are trying to get each speaker try to limi their embarks to roughly 20 minutes so tat we have a good piece te at the end for questions. we will try to ferment the discussion before turning over the floor. a few might be how to lok ten 15, 20 years out how toreceive particularly in the asn wer mark competing again also

e resource of great importae and intert mainly liquefied natural gas. think the market will once again have to be cometitive with nucle ergy or is it ing to be one of those resources that we allowto weather on the vine with tragic consequences in the ability to meet the clima change goals think it would be useful if could get some insight into how far along the ph towards commercialization around the worlnot just in the unit states but we heard an excellent presentation about how ar away is the technology in some other maets. and are there oppornities for usinthe convential techlo to replacethe older generation of technologies that most of usare using.

so, without further ado let us turn to the speaker and we will stt with laszlo varro f some opening remarks. >> ladies andenemen, e launch othe otlook onay afternoon and esday morning the first thing i did was ju on the plane and i'm very gld for the pefect timing. i should emhasize that ths outlook we look at is what is happening in the real-life industry and the#going to show you ur widh of the beinning so this is clearly an unsuainable path and that shows thatthecurrent number

sufficient for te cost of t stabilization and beondthose. but having said this i so have toay the headline number ich 2.1 average growth for e consumion this is the longst number we ever came wh in the busines for 15years was almost half of the growth. buit isn't out of the gameat all it ive much driven by a robustgeneration so i is a dimension of fueand the most important use. a very robust investment in fact one third of the tal was built

on 2005. so think tha it will continue in chi so there will a gowth in the region bt we see a dline in both europe and the unitd staes. inheascouplef months, the climate greementhad a lot of discussion about the ssibility so we look at it very carefully. ceainly, the notion tt china isupseto ignore the problem compltely out of uch. china s doing very large inveme into the low carbon soces. the invetment is to roughly

$150 million of coal not bing burned in the power ants by the enof thedecade. most ofthis avoied the attentn of the western media. china [inaudible] there's still lot to be done. another big investment is the largesinvestor b far 150 million noteing bned in the coal-fired power plants. the 27 nuclear power plants in th infrastrcture is another $1 mlion of col. this leads o nuclearaving a bigger impct on the united states. the notion that cna has a baseline and doesn't do anythi as completelyalse.

also china is blding new plts a aigger rate then theyedt. so every yr they clodown the coal-fir power plants and this is i the high fficiency power plants and thegrowth o the average is aother 0 million of coal. if you d together l of these instnts, the investment into the more efcient low carbon urs o covrh growth of 3.1% so if the fir 3.1% is covered by the loal resources the wouldn't ned of this generation at all. nounder the normal cnditions, china high here than that.

it is 5.5%. the key person to keep imind is that china has a slghtly vigoro st in the united states. but it has aomplicated infrastructure. it is twice as high nd the electric system. but thchinese when chinese been factoring sector consum fiveimes more than the amican industry. so the big question th demand for the chinese been factoring products. there e also large investment in china tt hold increase the demand. the mt important is the natural gas production which is very ce from the laloint of view and the tual gas to the american iies, but it's a

competitivdister from the point of view because it has wer solutio. t iss a vry ignificantly less. they are $250 billn of al ojted by the end of the deca. and also, hinas now the largest markefor the environmt on the margin. [inaudible they lor thnet eficiency of the plant and by the end of the dede of the estimate will be burned to clean cl. another thing to look at cha is ireing natural gas very bustly. the chinese government also has

a target of modern environmental controls by the end of the decade. we have absolutely no doubt there's a very robust investment in cleaning up. these plants over 6,000 more than the production. so in europe and the united states natural gas -- in china it will actually be more important than the natural gas itself. and we shouldn't forget that china has an incredibly imbalanced economic stock traded as reliant on the activities. since the past 14 years, the industry was built around the stock. and today the two infrastructures presume more coal in china than in the entire

united states. it runs on the coal-fired electricity and that is more activity than in germany. so, if you need in china is the large investment in the low carbon energy combined with a significant change in the infrastructure cost lowdown in manufacturing production and also rebalancing of the chinese economy. the investments alone are not sufficient for the people in china but that rebalancing manufacturing could potentially. at the same time the conversion is not going to stop even at the current. it is robustly competitive to the sources. the good news is in the chinese

industry the chinese government -- it might not be today but they are waiting for that day to come. around southeast asia it in a much earlier stage with a bit of simplification it was in 1990. in that 20 years it is just beginning and in india it is just beginning and yet tom. if you want to electrify those companies to the medium level which i defined the united states would do higher. but if you wanted to occupy that to the level of malaysia, you would miss 15 times from the natural gas or you would need six times so 15000.

is. that isn't going to happen. it is very difficult to put together a scenario in southeast asia that has the proper coal. when we look at the all hands on deck effort they really put our imagination on board in the nuclear power. it is in india and southeast asia is actually increasing quite significantly. a quite substantial proportion of that new investment in southeast asia and india is not so critical.

if you build all of the coal-fired power plants under construction you would see more carbon dioxide. there is a massive improvements to be made. but i should emphasize that the reason why the developing countries invest so critical it is a high-temperature and high-pressure that puts a strain so you need the high quality for the manufacturing. there are half a dozen companies in the can properly.

and many of the south asian countries there is no guarantee. so you need access to technology and finance and build up the human capabilities. cross into the united states we see it is very outspoken. so what is the u.s. coal. the first thing to understand is the new investment fund with [inaudible] it was in the early '90s that was more liberalized. but as is the investment in the

coal-fired power plants under the market conditions there is a tendency to move to the gas plants and in fact 75% are in the states and it's probably not a coincidence. the rather similar marginal cost this is our estimation from the cost of the regulations on power generation. now even if the administration had the agency that wasn't on the investment in the united states because it is the capital corp. lands and it is the competition to win private investment. the impact of the regulation is

much smaller than the impact of cheap gas and this is the difference between the u.s. gas prices and the united states would be in the business of importing the energy and the impact on our estimation with the impact of the regulations. i should also emphasize that the new revolutions are not something unique. in fact the united states is catching up with other regions. the regulations are pretty much in line with the new regulations there have been a number that require in our view it will be enforced in a very slow manner.

so you could regard them as something that is part of a basic package. a very short-lived generation and 2002 to 2013 it was very short and that was rarely due to the changing price of the caching. the last also be of a large-scale deployment which constrains the operations and it does mean that it started to

decline decline at this time irreversibly. and indeed there were new investments in the power plants but this is not a reaction to the german nuclear payout because they have an investment leadtime. so this is the schedule of the power plants coming on line in germany. and this is the final decision. the final decision for the plans to place between 2005 and 2007 was irreversible and under construction at the time when they were decided is 2007 is the start. from the point of view of the final energy industry anything before the crisis is like egypt.

the file capability was completely devastated and also to compare the long-term projections from 2007 are revised so germany and spain disappeared. they have low marginal costs but there is no chance with the exception of poland and other east european countries i don't think that we will see a final decision in europe ever again so this is the last of a dying breed. and for the first time ever if the market projection and so far we've done only by carbon capture and storage is coming back from the grave into the

reelection is taking place in the next five years it is good to be 0.2% so that is a long way to go. with that i'm happy to pause the floor. >> thank you very much for the very interesting and somewhat sobering projection in particular anybody looking for more use in europe. we will go to you next. >> i'm honored to be invited back to this event. [inaudible]

today i would like to elaborate the importance of the context not only from economics but political standpoint. people tend to have negative power just because we are talking about what to do against climate change and we have to maximize our efforts to protect. many people tend to be

[inaudible] [inaudible] and in the area to find herself without any bit of doubt or pollution. they tend to be coal-fired power plants and air pollution.

[inaudible] we have this future with coal. let me ask you for some on the advanced technology [inaudible] that is the question. what will we -- [inaudible]

first, the practice projected the increasing consumption. however, we have to be careful how to use coal because we are also concerned about what to do with the generations and each time they have different economic backgrounds. the way that you consume coal must be economically sustainable.

if we cannot use coal in the most effective way of kind of political impact likely encounter? they are also predicted to increase especially in asia after the economic growth has shifted towards the asia-pacific it's both in asia and beyond. once again it will increase its

share by 40% to the growth in the next few decades. and again there will be the pieces of coal consumption. while cody increasing plan also projects to increase the coal consumption. if the oil and gas producing

countries but it's going so fast to use oil and gas for the consumption's and meanwhile they are trying for the domestic economy. [inaudible] they are trying to make their own: meanwhile increasing gas.

this changes the future scale of the self-sufficiency of energy in the region and in the world. unless the carbon consumption enough to increase the be careful for this point of completion over oil and gas in the region. once again, we have to look at

how coal has been used. [inaudible] there is the efficiency for the domestic plant and at the same time china is very proactively trying to export to the other developing countries. [inaudible] here i have the pictures on the

growth rate of the curve due to the technology evolutions. the nuclear service etc. even with the domestic picture we still need few sizable scale. but if [inaudible]

with china india we need to consume due to the consideration the demand for the natural gas is bound to increase. it may cause an impact in the region.

[inaudible] in that part of the world and of the chinese have demand for everything. they had lots and still be imposing call. [inaudible] it would be the impact on the future trade especially oil and

gas would be something we need to be concerned about. the question of the crisis which is actually escalating in the world's history trying to figure out how they have the dependence and we have to calm down. how many actions do they have? if the united states has the

natural gas and japan as a nation is expressing [inaudible] future constraint over there is they need to make the changing mix into the meaning of the nuclear but it takes time.

but it's especially about increasing. but the scale is one of the solutions. i would also like to raise a question about the interim linkage between the future. as i have repeated them it was on gas and oil.

it cannot be effectively used. it would have a major impact on the future of the oil and gas. then countries like china india and speeding up and deploying the nuclear reactors. and for many developing countries in asia and africa it's quite affordable to pay for higher prices for oil and gas. they may think it's more attractive to introduce a nuclear power plant if they

provide upfront costs. now for example china is trying to hurry up the nuclear technologies. we have to be clear about the decision of the nuclear technologies and when we are wondering what's going to happen as a result chief gas prices are being able to push of coal and nuclear but if we just keep our eyes open we should have a different set of pictures to

keep the gas prices in the states [inaudible] nuclear technologies. let me wrap up my presentation. first we have to keep our eyes open wide. every single piece of the global reality -- it may increase the uncertainties.

there are other kinds and last is the question of the earlier security and we have to. thank you very much for your attention. >> thank you. [applause] as usual when you get to the end of one of your presentations there is always a very provocative thoughts to think about. thank you. thank you for the opportunity to participate in this panel.

i'm always intimidated when i speak with such people because they are energy experts. i'm the representative so my job is good government relationships with treasury and the state department and the department of foreign affairs in canada. but when i first started my career i started as an investment officer at annihilator was coordinating the efforts to decrease funding in the energy and energy efficiency so every time i get an opportunity to speak i do the background research and i keep my technical mix going. both today i have some incredible data and i thought i would talk about energy security in asia, the energy security challenges in asia and i'm going to take it from a book just published shortly distributed

called asia's energy challenges, key issues and policy options. .. and its that we did a study if years ago that said if asia continues to grow at its current rate of economic growth by 2050 asia's gdp will be more than half of the global gdp.

and, in fact, per capita income will be about $40,800 per person which is what the per capita income of europe and north america. this is a premise where we start a lot of or economic work and a premise by which we start a lot of policy dialogue that we hold with our developing member countries. there's a lot of assumptions, a lot of premises and a lot of the assumptions and the assumptions are based on whether asia will meet those six points that are on the right side of the slides there. whether we can address any inequality in the region individual inequality whether as you can overcome the middle income trap. asia is a region in the world with the least natural resources. has the least amount of arable land for growing. it has the least amount of fresh water of all the five regions of the world. and how asia addresses of these. it is probably the least amount of natural resources of energy.

and so these are the assumptions can we will not can you do that because we will not be talked about the economics today. we're going to talk about energy security. but these are the assumptions that are being made. look at our flagship study over the last few year -- few years shows it pretty quick that in the last few years the average 6% growth in the region at a forecast of growth for the rest of 2014 and 2015 going into 6.2 6.4 for asia and going forward with assumptions i think shows asia's growth will continue at its current rate and in fact some of the issues we talked about energy security will come true. this is at the same time with the rest of the world is doing in economic growth and i want

we forecasted is in the excellent growth for the u.s. and will underpin a lot of the growth coming from asia strengthening the u.s. economy. aggregated a lot of the data we been talking about today. if asia was going to meet its economic goals, becoming figure% of global economy by 2015 this is the energy needs for us to continue to meet our economic growth rates. currently we use 44% of the global energy and it will continue by 2035 will be needing about 66%. these are on a business as usual scenarios. also if you look at the self-sufficiency index. i know it's going to guard we don't we see there's only three countries self-sufficient energy. kazakhstan and per night.

nobodyeverybody else will be energy importers. liquidity and yet china are sorted just above the medal indonesia, the big countries bangladesh is way down at the bottom. big countries with a lot of population. this is with energy demand is going to come. idea and we talked about energy resources in the region. we look at reserves in gold look at the reserves in conventional gas and technically recoverable oil and natural gas and we see asia doesn't have a lot of this. so how is asia going to address these shortages to ensure energy security for economic growth. i think this is a slightly similar to yours on the energy demand for asia, in asia. most will continue to come from cold moving forward. interesting number, i'm not sure why, is why we noble is not more of the percentage. again, i'm thinking it's because it's going to come from this is

based on business as usual scenario so perhaps future policy regulations and incentives will have greater impact on renewables. also on oil imports the oil imports for the region are expected to triple by 2035. again how is asia going to manage this. i'm flying through the slides because a lot of this has been done i want to spend more time on the policy options. fossil fuels demand, so this is what electricity where electricity and issue comes from. a lot of so comes from coal. in fact, it's going to continue to grow and cold will continue to be a large part in asia. along with the points that were made earlier. i'm switching to infrastructure because the investment needs in the region are big. not only do we need energy but

asia needs a lot of infrastructure. some of you were here yesterday. a very interesting session on asia's infrastructure. i attended a conference aced on report that was done just released a month ago on asia's infrastructure. we did her own study in 2009 to look at asia's infrastructure needs. we can see oecd infrastructure scoring, 5.4 out of six. and what the rest of asia is. a lot of investment needs to make a nation and essence a we can start -- the reason i bring this up is because this is an opportunity for asia ma policymakers, the investments we make no will be in place for the next 30 40 50 years and the energy side that's very, very important and i will bring that up a little bit later. because of his gap we look at the shortages. talked about electrification and south asia southeast asia 809 people still do not have access to electricity in the region.

1.2 billion people still use traditional forms for cooking. although i'm told it tastes much better than cooking with gas. i questioned the number on internet access. 80% of asians do not have access to internet. i don't know, i think it's awesome that but those are the numbers i've gathered. asia's financial months, a lot of financing requirements come especially in electricity sector transport. i bring this up because we're a bank if we do a lot of financing. because we do a lot of financing, we, the world bank and africa, we have an interesting table that will affect some of the decisions that would make. now i'd like to spend more time on the three pillars that we think, and our policy discussions are how asia can get to energy security. the first point here is energy

pricing, right? the subsidies that are going to various forms of energy need to be -- what's the word i'm looking for? need to be -- the word -- rationalized okay? you can subsidize but we must understand what we are subsidizing. we must understand what you can afford to provide those subsidies. indonesia is an example. i'm from indonesia. the previous president cut the subsidies to the energy sector by 50% of the current president has cut 30% of the remainder, and says he will continue to do that. that frees up a lot of fiscal space to invest in education and health care, transportation and other things. these are the same conversations we're having in india, in laos come in vietnam, across the border, across the board in asia and this is an important part

because into we get to real pricing of energy, right, we put the bicycles out there, we will not get to energy efficiency. because energy efficiency as we can see from the numbers that were given by -- should i talk in this one? okay. and as the numbers that were given earlier i really like the number 42% of energy goes to energy efficiency savings. so to get to energy efficiency savings we need to get the price correct. we had a large energy efficiency program, targeted seven countries, india, china, indonesia, vietnam bangladesh -- i can't remember all but it's still very hard for us to help and to get investments in energy efficiency. it makes a lot of financial sense with utilities, with

industry, but because of price distortions and electricity comes it's hard to get those. number one on the list is to work on subsidies and address those. the second part is emissions -- co2 taxation. either cap-and-trade system or taxation of co2. again advocating the price is correct on this. i believe that perhaps taxation is much better than the cap-and-trade system. the cap-and-trade system has been tried in europe, has been tried with cdm but i think taxation is perhaps another way to do that will send their signals to the market on what can be done with energy. and then we talk about sort of the second part is sort of for aspirational in the dialogue we're having with the countries. we are talking about smart cities and talking about urban

growth and you know the urban the rate of urbanization in asia has been phenomenal but it's taken asia less than 100 years around 100 years to get, to be more than 60% urbanized. it to north america about one and 50 years. it to europe about 200 years in urbanized. so the problem of urbanization and the problem of needing the challenges of urbanization is not the asians are not trying to do something about. it's just happening so fast they are not able to go. but if we can do this better, if a -- is asia can urbanized better and play better, a lot of the energy use, savings for energy can come from better plan and urbanization. also on the transport sector, right, doctor economic growth of asia and growth in per capita income. if today vehicle ownership in asia is about 300 vehicles per thousand people, in north america vehicle ownership is

about 700 800 vehicles per thousand people. if asia goes to a higher per capita income, there would be huge growth. so how we meet the energy needs for vehicle use? we are talking asian to the bank with the government and with other institutions about a model of ovoid shift and improve. avoid the need to travel in the first place. smarter cities. shift from private transportation to public this petition and that's a difficult thing in asia because we're talking about behavior. diversity do when you make money you buy a motorcycle. you more -- to make more money, take the bus. my staff take my bicycles and they take the bus but i take my car. well, if we start talking about bus pass rapid transit and special bus lanes. the reason to you is to get people out of cars into buses. to do that you need buses that

are air-conditioned, hub and spoke systems to get these people to move. but to do that you have two president lee than the normal buses. people who are already taken public transportation, that's not your target audience. your target audience are these people who are you want to move away from the cars and super buses. that doesn't jive well with politicians because there to about inequality. the comfortable buses will be much more expensive to poor people are going to feel like you're not taking care of them. so it's a beautiful change we have to address and it's a long-term behavioral change and something that we're working on with our developing member countries. another thought is to switch because of abundant and efficient gas, i like it when -- he always said gas abundant and clean gas. with abundant and clean gas perhaps in asia we can rethink it and not just use gas to

create steam, to create generation it's been transferred over 100 columbus and use to cook water in the severity of her structure in the is is such a that is what you do the perhaps asia is now so developed that you can't encourage better gas distribution and use gas as the primary fuel for cooking and perhaps even for appliances. that's a thought we are exploring and we're looking at investing a lot more in gas distribution. the second part of the three-legged stool is environmental sustainability. i like also the deputy secretaries topic. he called his plan the role of coal and all the above strategy. and i think asia, it has to be all of the above. there is no panacea.

it really has to be all of the above and investments in renewables, wind, solar, geothermal. geothermal is an important resource has been really overlooking indonesia. very underdeveloped and something that really could be done. there's a lot of that. there's wind and facilities and the wind is viable in the philippines. begin human behavior. it's taken 10 years to pass the renewable energy act. it's taken them another five years to do the tariffs. again political action, human behavior affects its i think there's a lot of opportunities where asia can do better. i call this more efficient use of coal. when i was in charge of the program. i got hammered, i used to get hammered all the time but greenpeace people. we financed a lot of coal they

say. it's changed, but the use to hammer us all the time and they said you can't use clean coal because you just whitewashing the problem. there's no such thing as clean coal. coal is dirty. in the peace treaty we decided whenever we talk about clean coal responds got more efficient use of coal. when is a more efficient use of coal i mean ccs and i mean we have some funding from the global ccs institute and we've been working in india and china vietnam and in addition to look at potential for ccs, for ccs on the geology for ccs. we have also been working very hard for the last three or four years to develop a regulatory structure of ccs. a lot of times in asia by new technology gets about but it's delayed because the regulations. we are working in these countries to get the right infrastructure in place so that when ccs is available and commercially viable, that

they've made a tour structures we were there at the inauguration. our team met with the deputies of sector. we brought in a delegation from china to look at the power plant, and again just like it's being a demonstration project in the u.s. in north america it's also a demonstration project for asia. so there's a lot we can do in the greater use of clean energy and more efficient use of energy. another thing where we can do a lot of efficiency is developing an integrated regional market. central asia was integrated once upon a time kazakhstan would sell its gas to europe and use hydropower from uzbekistan. i think. and in someone's and in the winter months uzbekistan can use the gas and electricity from kazakhstan. the same in the mac on the countries we have into connections in laos and thailand and cambodia, vietnam we get

efficiencies from their and the system, are we financed a lot of that in central asia. were also financing malaysia and indonesia. so we are looking at interconnection in the great. in south asia we've been trying to do that but it's much more difficult because south asian country are not connected to build connected to india but it's very difficult to bangladesh has been wanting to buy power for a long time. with interconnections is the problematic. if we can get a regional structure on this that will be very very efficient way to use the natural resources that are indigenous. and, finally because we are an organization focus on reduction of poverty we cannot forget call access issue. you brought up the issue of electrification. for energy we cannot talk about it and you still talk about access to energy for the poor. the first point is the

governmentsgovernment all have energy to access to energy programs but if you look at the countries that still don't have access to electricity, india, indonesia 50/50% elected by. i've had conversations with indonesian government officials, i say to them apparently your government is elected without providing access to electricity. so until it becomes an important part of the political agenda, it's never going to happen in indonesia. if that doesn't happen, how do we do it? and our work we've been trying to get a lot more of the private sector involved, vendors and to get them to invest in solar charging systems many grids micro grids. that's a very important part of the equation. we cannot forget about access in asia. so those are the three pillars i wanted to highlight to keep in mind sort of the importance of the human side of behavior, the human side of equality making

and decision-making. thank you very much. [applause] >> thank you samuel. i'd like to just make a few points and then will try to get it to the floor rather than ask extensive questions of the panelists. the one area as one well as work and a lot of asian countries for many years on various world bank and asian development, projects i think we've not had enough discussion of is the whole institutional makeup of the to many asian countries where there is simply no respect for the rule of law so you can talk about greater involvement by the private sector but the private sector has to be assured that once they invest the rules of the game won't change. even where with financial assistance from donor agencies we set a regulatory regimes.

too often there's no real regulatory enforcement. too often when the regulator does make a decision that a new law may say he or she has a right to me, when they go to cut off somebody's dog for nonpayment, they can even be met by guns at the gate of a factory. i've had that happen to me personally. rather intimidating. we have endemic corruption in things like people bribing meter readers to have falsified their bills or other things, holding down electricity usage. we have fiscal realities confronted by most asian utilities, too many people don't pay their bills or in fast-growing cities, where new addresses are popping up every day, bills don't get to where they are supposed to go. we have the classic case of come as i mentioned, nonpayment of

bills. and interestingly when you really do some of these studies, the nonpayment of bills is usually not the little guy or the small homeowner. it's a big industrial list. it's the army, the navy. oftentimes the ministry of finance. and it really is a major issue that a think asia has to come to grips with if they are really going to see serious reform. i'm glad samuel particularly but so that you touched on the question of energy access, but i think the critical question is how do we bring the literally hundreds of millions of people without even access to one light bulb, or probably several hundred more people who have limited access to energy, how to get them up to a modicum of a reasonable amount of energy to improve their standard of living, at the same time to that in the context of ensuring that we aren't just exacerbating the climate change problem because of fuel usage, particularly of fossil fuels is going up?

one of the big problems also about reform, particularly in the coal sector is the whole issue of employment. and india it's often the case that the major coal producing states are often in political, when congress is a lease in power for many years, are in political opposition to the congress party when it rules in delhi. so any reforms of the coal sector that are seen as hostile immediately becomes -- there are tens of millions of people throughout asia that work in the coal sector or the logistic sector to move goal. and as you talk about reforming coal, i think you need to keep up with the realities of how you deal with this. i think we have the impact on looking at our discussion on coal. the impact of what happens if omg path -- prices continue to double? do they undercut coal? and if so what does that mean for enhanced omg demand which

right now looks pretty good. but is that going to last? the whole question of eliminating subsidies is important but it's important how you eliminate subsidies because there is the danger that you limit subsidies and use the money perhaps legitimately so to build the infrastructure or something, you'd actually increased energy consumption rather than reduce it. clearly reducing subsidence in securing the rights pricing signal a system is extremely important to promote efficiency but it's not as simple as some of the analysis often suggests. now, with that rant come we can now turn to the audience for questions to the panelists. the floor is open. please identify yourself and wait for the mic please. >> i'm bob hirschi, on the console. what can be done to raise money

for these things in the private sector, especially by holding meetings online and getting some transparency? >> i think we talked about this previously. the consultative process that needs to take place through all this is the largest and is an important part of it. i think the input, the discussion on how we might do this. one very recent example indonesia as they cut its subsidy of fuel is direct payment to the poorest of the poor. how to get direct payments to the poorest of the poor? the world bank has been piloting a program of direct payments with the caveat that the children of these people

continued to get health checks come at the children of these will continue to go to school. and if we can get an electronic system that goes in we have identification, electronic identification, the kids go to school, they get checkups at twice you, all the musicians there's a direct payment from the government as a subsidy. and so we're working on those programs. i don't have specific knowledge on how they're doing it but this is something that we're moving more and more towards on the electronic side. >> johns hopkins university. question for laszlo. as we think about gas with go, especially unconventional gas is there a rapid decline rate in unconventional gas summer tour we've heard about unconventional oil that would suggest maybe the new gas resources won't last as long?

>> there is -- [inaudible] of local gas but this has been known with the north america spring suspension of due -- in order -- if you stop building production will fall very very rapidly. now, at the same time i do say that outside, outside north america, the only country that noncommercial gas has an even money chance is a china. even in the case and if there's a huge -- [inaudible] in china because china so far has only -- in the entire country. in the united states 100 shore gas value. so the understanding in china is

comparable to the united states 50 years ago. nobody knows but in china visible people, a very bullish scenario. we did that. for india if i combine the population density, a land-use problems -- that's a big issue in india roads. the water issue and so on. you have to really, really -- [inaudible] same goes in indonesia. the best resources are in regions of swamps, jungles very very difficult infrastructure access problems. in europe -- i have to say that

if china could have a meaningful impact on coal, but even in china -- for the rest of the world i don't see having a really big impact. >> thanks. i'm an independent consultant. sam, you mentioned subsidies, and way back law long ago in september 2009 the g20 meeting in pittsburgh there was an agreement to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. could you comment on that? and maybe also link it back to u.s. government schizophrenic, or amnesia and it is the right word. anyone else can comment on that, too. >> yet. i think, i've been following

this also goes subsidy come at the g20 as the imf to leave the worker look at subsidies in fuel and fuel subsidies and they were i think for a year or two a lot of consultant running around looking at the fuel subsidies and where they were. and that the time i was in manila and they would come by it with you doing on fuel subsidies, this and that. my view is that the fuel subsidy issue hasn't moved as an international issue and perhaps those of you in the sort of think tank and you can add more to this. i don't think it's moved as much as sort of the g20 has wanted. it's all got to do with local sort of politics, local will. i think the indonesian i tried indonesia because i am indonesian come has been one of the few where they have taken a large chunks of the subsidy out. anybody else can add on that that would be very