okay go ahead.

it doesn't have a clear lever and political mandates. the principal leader of the organization, the main political figure in result is the former president, founding member, a founding member of the wilson center, another program i laid there.

the president has resisted calls by members of his party for impeachment of president dilma rousseff, thing that impeachment is not philosophical thing. enough to cause. the causes are described in the constitution of brazil. he i think finally was able yesterday to unify the discourse a little bit by calling -- the governor of são paulo and has abandoned this idea to try to call for new elections after obtaining the cancellation of the action which was a kind of not a viable opposition from the start. there was nothing particularly wrong with the way the president was elected. thit should not be pursued.

but president cardoso after the rallies that took place on sunday, had about 800,000 people in the streets. they were smaller, the rallies, than previous ones. it did not create new momentum for impeachment or anything of the sort that they were informed. they kept pressure on. there was enormous support for the judge and for the prosecutors. for the first time that little pockets of -- [inaudible] a new thing in brazil. it's really meaningful because the president was at one point the most popular kid in brazil's history, highly respected. president cardoso issued a very

important statement on monday. i will translate it and i will read it to you. the most significant part of the demonstrations such as the one that took place yesterday is the persistence of the popular sentiment that the government already legal is illegitimate. it is lacking a moral base that has been eroded by the shenanigans of -- [inaudible] similar to the method for of the prisoner, even though our president can personally protect herself, she suffers -- by the misdeeds after patron and continuously loses the ability to govern. at this point coalition behind closed doors is only increasing

the negative reaction of citizens and does not return the legitimacy to the government -- collusion. that is, and acceptance of its right to command to lead. this is an important reference that i just mentioned to you. if the president is unable to make gesture of greatness, which would be either to resign from office or to frankly admit that she made mistakes and offer bets to be taken for national recovery, we will witness the growing district regulation of the government and congress, taking it from the scandal. that is until a leader with moral strength, and here he mentions -- the man who led the campaign to win democracy

following the military dictatorship, constitution and. [inaudible] you think you are president, but you know longer are. and this counts -- comes from president cardoso, and expertly or which has so far refrained and recommended people from his party from insisting on impeachment of a president that so far has not been accused of committing any impeachable offense. but i think it's a very important element of this discussion, and i wanted you to leave with this. we will have this statement, was

obviously distributed widely in brazil, and we will continue to focus on this discussion. there is a problem in brazil that although the crisis to the people is economic, it's a deep political crisis of a system that is slowly unraveling, but it's unraveling i think in a way that can be productive. you are not going to see a rupture in brazil. brazil will not cease being democratic. the objective of all the we form has to be economic stability, sustainable growth. i would say that will not happen if brazil does revised some of the tenets of our system. one of them i don't think investors confidence in brazil

will return if we don't start to open up our economy, and also we don't use the lessons to conclude corporate governance in brazil. i think those are the changes we have. i think people are ugly or fat and there are people doing good work in brazil and all those areas, including businessmen, including research organizations, et cetera. >> thank you. peter, productive unraveling, anything new? >> let me just say we learned a lot. but i just add one thing to this. what i think you have in brazil is huge uncertainty, unpredictability. almost anything you here today

is sort of in discussion. there is no sure path out of this crisis. there's no sure path out of the corruption. there's no sure path, and so i think that sort of any prediction is going to be sort of shifted. what's in the news this morning we don't know because we are sitting here. so i just want to sort of be, there's so many things. first, the approval ratings of the president are now between eight and 10%, which is extraordinarily low as we know. there is no indication that that's going to change anytime soon. when you have a president that's at that low level of approval, sort of the foundations of government are very, very shaky.

second, and that's why, let me just say that some predictability to say i think that brazil and the president particularly is breathing easier today than they were before the demonstrations. and a lot has happened in the past couple of weeks that does suggest a slightly easier path for her, but things could change very, very quickly. the economy really does remain in terrible shape. everyday the news are that the recession is going to last longer than it has been predicted yesterday. that the austerity program sort of put in place by one of the most respected economists in brazil, respected across the political spectrum, is really not working very well. he called for a reduction in the

fiscal deficit of 1.5%. it's slightly to be about zero now. so just the shaking of the economy, the uncertainty there creates enormous political uncertainty. and investors and business people are all sort of waiting and watching and trying to figure out how do you react to this. the scandals, which i haven't mentioned yet, the corruption, is going to keep spreading, spilling over, spilling over into other countries of latin america. it's not only affecting petrobras but other big huge government agencies involved. and remember, you to browse was 10% of the brazilian economy -- petrobras. execute. that's like a state of california going into a sort of

totally scandalous situation. this is a huge, huge company. there's nothing like it in the united states as part of the company. then you have electoral bronze and have a dozen others that are -- and it's not only a public sector corruption scandal. it's a private, this is a public-private partnership and your the major construction companies, multibillion-dollar construction companies involved and that's only one sector. there are other sectors that are probably involved in will be discovered. so in other words, all insane, not that it can be solved and the don't want to sound overly pessimistic because the reason to sort of see some glimmer of life but i think the emphasis at this point has to be on unpredictability. the other problem that i have

with what we've heard and i'm going to sort of skipped over a lot here is whether this is an institutional crisis or a governance only political crisis. well, you know, you have three branches of government in brazil like you have three branches in the united states, very similar in some ways. and two of those branches are in a bit of chaos now, a bit of uncertainty. turmoil may be the better word. the executive branch, obviously the president with low approval ratings, other members of the executive branch, other senior officials have been involved in this scandal, previous scandals. remember, petrobras is a state run oil company. it's not high officials running that. so you have a real institutional

crisis i would say in the presidency. secondly, the legislative branch which is sort of seen and viewed by most, the scandals work because it's corrupt. the legislative branch. and there, too, you sort of see divisions, 27, 20, 29 parties in congress, the largest single party control let's say maybe 15% of the seats in the lower house. so you need coalitions and it have to be crafted, and how are they crafted, by jobs, by sort of bribery, or by sort of earmarks to the local constituencies of different -- so you to branches that really are sorted in crisis.

the judicial is working like no one had expected it. it was five or six years ago you talked about the judicial system being dysfunctional. in part it's working though. let me say i think that it's working because the other two branches are parallel. in other words, in most other cases in brazil where you've had this kind of problem, presidency, the executive branch could sort of keep a lid on it. or the legislature could keep a lid on it. now you don't have that. in fact, coupled with that i don't want to leave that out, assorted street demonstrations which have also made it harder to put a cap on that. let me add if i think there's

one i would say, not one, but the positive note and let me in a little bit on a positive note, is that i think there is more of a consensus on what has to be done in brazil. regardless of who is in the position. once the fight over, whether to impeach or not to impeach, is sort of more or less settles down, the economic program, wildly unpopular in brazil and probably one of the causes of the marches is, in fact, probably a well-crafted, well thought through program supported by business leaders, most of the political establishment. so you have that. and she is putting their weight behind what is left. secondly, the fact what others

have said, the judicial system is showing its ability to move forward, and the legislative and executive branch are not interfering. think of the other crisis that paulo bitchen, with the exception of chile, the prosecution of crimes this thing stopped. not being investigated. the judicial system is working and that something, and the legislative and executive are letting it work. and finally, in other words, everybody is screaming about the transport had to establish relations with the united states. she made an early trip to the united states, didn't accomplish a whole lot, establish a little more open channels. doesn't mean a lot within the

brazil crisis now but it might mean going forward quite a bit. also talking the opening the economy as you suggested, talking a sort of the need for reforming. in other words, there's a lot of very positive language got a lot of different politicians could support at all this. in other words, there can be a consensus output if it comes together. the one thing i was a little, i wish fernando would have been a little firmer in this last statement though, paulo. in other words, to say this is not the time for impeachment unless there is some room activity discovered. but he didn't say that. in fact, he talked about her either re-signing or apologizing, and i have not, couldn't, can't think of, maybe this audience will think of a

leader that gets up and says i've made all these mistakes for the past four years, is a list of the mistakes i've made, and now i want you to support me in the future. and think of one that survived any kind of apology like that. like i say, i think when fernando comes out stronger in the party which has been divided on this issue comes out stronger, that would be a very good sign to look for. michael asked for signs. that would be the best sign. >> great. thank you, peter. a lot of issues. i have a number of questions but i'm going to forego that because we have about 40 minutes and i look aroun around this room andy see a lot of people who have been following brazil and i'm sure have a lot of questions, feel free to also make comments. you don't have to disguise them as questions. just make a comment. tell us what you think, react, and we'll start with larry.

and just please tell us who you are, wait for the microphone and try to be as concise, succinct as you can. larry, you will set the example i'm sure. >> washington diplomat. during dilma's recent trip to the united states which peter you alluded to, she met with president obama into various ceos in new york and in the silicon valley and consensus at least there was that it was a german a successful trip to catch up -- patch of previous differences. despite her extremely low approval ratings, what is this, what are the implications on our bilateral relations? specifically for brazil's efforts to attract u.s. investment. >> thanks. why don't we take some others? i will start with margaret. >> margaret hayes, i'm an adjunct professor at georgetown right now.

you've talked about the economic crisis, but you haven't mentioned that this economic crisis really is generated because brazil didn't take advantage of the commodity income to diversify, to invest in in people and so forth. what kind of discussions, if any, are going on within the business community as an economist and so forth as to what specific structural changes need to be pursued in order, not to go through the same thing all over again? >> great. yes, here. we will get to more and then go back to the panel. >> washington correspondent. kind of a follow-up of the first

question. much has been said about the risks of dilma going down. i would like to ask what are the risks of dilma staying in power? for brazil, for her. to use american expression, what are the risks of having a lame duck president for the rest of the readers? and specifically, the way the american government are specifically the american government, lame-duck president, can do business with this government? thank you did the one final comment. >> gretchen smallwood executive intelligence review, and i have to as usual bring in a broader reality. in terms of -- >> you're welcome.

>> reality is very frightening right now. "the daily telegraph" of london yesterday that headline which i think is useful in what we're discussing as a so-called are still crisis, which is doomsday clock for global crash strikes one minute to midnight as central banks lose control. i would add to that and we've added to that, that we are one minute to midnight, global confrontation of the united states with russia and china, and that in today's world would be certainly nuclear. deliver discussing much more, well, that's the context of which were discussing brazil. in one way i would like to know if anybody has given consideration to a backlash, i know there are sectors, national sectors if you want to call in brazil, and i think this would be more in the industrial military, the defense sector of

that, who views it does. when apple was elected, that was -- with a nuclear submarine project is gone after. as you said this is every major brazilian private company to do this brazil that is being gone after. there are people who view this as a color revolution coming from foreign interest which i think is something to be considered. that's a pretty strong thing, particularly given that brazil's brick allies as russia and china in particular identified cultural revolution as strategic methods of doing regular water. that's it. a comment on the backlash. that's it. >> thank you very much. we'll go back to the panel and

have other questions. [inaudible] >> with respect to the economic debate, i think there are two main issues being discussed, almost, i wouldn't call it military defenses, what needs to be done there and think there's a growing understanding that the formula that worked in the past doesn't work anymore and we are reaching a moment, a crucial moment that changes need to be implemented. i think to keep issues are, what is fiscal, that the current imbalance brazil is facing, we talk about fiscal austerity, the restructuring of called ice cream, whatever you want to go to make it seem nicer, that it's more structural than many things. the original sin is 1980 constitution, where it basically, it created a huge

entitlements and mandatory spending. in fact, there is a study on a well-known economist in brazil that was published recently, got a lot of traction because it's showing what's going on now, just the mismanagement of economy of the last couple of years. it's more a structural factor that if nothing is done in terms of reforming constitution, reforming pensions, labor, et cetera, that brazil needs to call new transaction task every four years which that transaction tax expired in 2007 generated 50 billion, 60 billion a year. every four years just to get the finances in order. overall there is a sense that the structure of entitlements and mandatory spending needs to be addressed. and there's no politician with a

mandate to do it yet, and i think that's going to be a challenge not only for this government but for whoever takes over and the next couple of governments. and the second issue is actually improving relationship with the private sector in brazil we always like to compare brazil with italy, what happened with italy in the 1990s, the last two or three years, sometimes they say when they did in? they say it still hasn't ended. this was the 1990s. if that basic is a corruption scandal that escalate and reached different economic sectors and the political system in italy your the political parties vanished. it led to -- in brazil we don't think we face that risk or at the same time italy was going through, joining the euro, the common currency. we don't have that in brazil.

but at the same time we do have i think the same factors, the same features that make result politics dysfunctional. makes the cost of doing business in brazil high, high tax burden, interest rates, logistics. these are ironically the same factors that channel policymaking in brazil towards more modern ground. when you look at argentina, for example, the pendulum, the shift in policy from the neoliberal 1990s, 10 years later, brazil followed the same path but moderately come in the middle. part of it has to do with the fact these features of brazil's political system that a lot of them see dysfunctional and bad. actually work and some extent to moderate policy.

her coalition is to the right of her. so i'm throwing this big picture because if you think that while in the 1990s brazil followed the tenets of the washington -- 10 years later it went to the left, mild version of state capitalism can produce a neighbors, the pendulum is shifting back to not, but again brazil slow mover. we think that the challenge for the next government, even this government is showing signs, although albeit incoherently of going in the direction of opening up more. i agree with paulo, without that nothing can be done. i think historic when you finance measures in place in brazil, other ministries follow suit and start to see the fingerprints of the minister in other policies. top three player birds are fisc, fiscal, fiscal. he has made comments on trade, on opening up and i think that's

the direction to those are the two key issues on the fiscal and the relationship with the private sector. briefly on the use and i will let paulo and should the u.s. question, i think it does create, i think on the good side as i said in my previous answer, it does increase the importance of the u.s. for brazil's, any kind of plan to restructure brazil's economy, attract more investment even though brazil as part of the brick the coalition, that's not a zero-sum game. brazil is always been reluctant to disclose groups. even the they are non-alliant during the cold war so tell you what i would like to they are in closing themselves to these exclusive groups. i do think on one end you cratered essences for dilma, open up some talks with the us

on investments -- created -- that process is slow. it creates in the near-term and the question is how long does the near-term last, that will be very turbulent. does not a lot she can do although historically a lot of presidents have faced problems domestically, it tends to go outside because they face less restrictions to operate in foreign policy but dilma does not like foreign policy so i don't see her doing that. i wouldn't say, getting, this is an inflection point in brazil's policy let's get and political landscape for sure. body don't see, the question is how steep the curtis and a fast change will come. i think the risk who said becoming a lame duck, the shewolf underdeliver, that's likely to be the case. so there's not any major upside for brazil in the next few yea

years. >> if she becomes a lame duck, and probably she may already be one, you ask about how people see this from here in terms of the relationship. it's nothing new. there was a lame duck for a good part of history and the dialogue continued. i think to her credit, -- [inaudible] that was below the moment i think in diplomatic history. are still locked -- lost a lot of credibility and to think among the european nations there's also the sentiment that i think to the president, she did attempt the first effort was

-- [inaudible] and finally she came as a very sad moment in her president but i think the visit reduced the dialogue, we are back and we're talking, the channels are open. and it's not only come to think about the executive of brazil, talking about executive of attorney. there's a lot of cooperation going on in many different areas including important in the judiciary. there are brazilian prosecutors, and to washington all the time. and this is important. this is cooperation. people emphasized people to people cooperation. there's lots of that and it should continue. remember allah of the federal prosecutors, working are people that graduated from american law schools with masters degrees here. this is part of cooperation. my book, i'm obviously, you know

what i think about cooperation between result in united states. real cooperation, many for cooperation between the two largest democracies of the hemisphere. it's about rule of law. so think about that. i would not, what will come of this, well, the our efforts although the crisis seems overwhelming. people are not paralyzed. there is cooperation. the climate change conference in paris will take place and brazil will be there. and believe it or not, people are talking about that, tragically laid their position. this is kind of not in the news but it's happening. people are not completely paralyzed and lost in the middle of the crisis. let me say another thing about the question of, on the reform,

margaret. see what happens in the case. a crisis, they change the regulatory framework in order to explore the oil. now we have legislation already going on in congress to undo part of the regulatory framework and free them from the burden that was put on to begin every well. doesn't need to happen. that drove remains very good company in terms of its technical expertise and as the senator proposes this, he or someone else said if petrobras announces it is going to try that well, other companies, oil companies in the world will pay attention because petrobras is expected for its ability but it doesn't need to be there because there has to be a national content in terms of exploration.

this is changing as we speak, so it's not that the system is stuck there. finally, on this idea of the international context of this crisis. president lula said the other day in a speech at the crisis that's happening in brazil is really not dilma's fall. renew the international crisis in brazil with the government said in 2009 after the crisis that was a creation of this country? and that imploded for a while. the first was as far as we were concerned for brazil would be -- small way, would not affect brazil. that we were, alas country to go to recession and first to get out of the. remember that? therefore the argument that the

international crisis called the brazilian crisis is kind of weird. we had already declared that it didn't affect us. now it's back. president lula acid recently last week that the crisis is not dilma's baltic mutually at the center of the crisis, there is the united states. so sell it, go make speeches in brazil and sell it please. try to sell this idea that there is this enormous, big conspiracy that the crisis in brazil is something that wasn't generated somewhere else, and that the dam chinese and the damn russians and the damn americans are really after to take us down. >> what about the europeans speak with and the europeans, the worst ones. i don't think this thing, the

public in brazil is changing to i don't think it can sell the story. obviously, i can direct you to a few places in brazil where that story would be very well received, probably those rallies that they're going up tomorrow. i have some friends that truly believe that the origin of all evil in the world is outside of brazil. we are very good but don't do anything wrong there, and that's actually, it has been tried, people, president dilma said in her inaugural speech, i choose it as far as petrobras, we have to be aware of the external enemies of petrobras. did you see any repercussions of that? because i mentioned to you there was 400 plus people. they are all brazilians to participate in this killing,

assault. i think that theory may be if there's something between china, russia and the united states, then we, our problems are solved. we don't have to worry. >> peter, anything to add? >> the effect of the crisis on u.s. relations, i think it's terrible. in other words, brazil was becoming very, very afford internationally, very important regionally, very important economically on all three counts. for the united states is far less important today. brazil should learn one thing, that its international influence, its regional influence, it's important is due to what happens internally, not what it does external but. and that includes opening the external. but it seems to me that brazil issues going to take up less

time, interest and public and private in the united states. second, a question of what the economics is that i think we should also realize that this is economic problem, economic turmoil for brazil. are still is going to lose 2% of its gdp this year. it's going to lose perhaps .5%, 1% in 2016. remember, mexico lost -- in 2008-2009. that argentina lost almost 15% of its income in the crisis. this is not one of those deep, huge crises. this is a very difficult, sluggish period that is compounded by the fiscal crisis, by poor leadership. but it's not sort of a cataclysmic crisis your resume

has recovered from much worse in the past, and that's not going to be the big problem. they are going to get the economy back. the question is the government's issue. the risk of having dilma in power is just one of those big uncertainties. in other words, it's going to be hard for her to regain power. i think for both the transition to another government or keeping the sequel will be the extent to which the political leadership, whatever we mean by that, begins to come to some sort of consensus. there begins to be more of a sense that now is the time for all good men and women to come to the aid of the country, and some of these sort of conflicts,

over ambition, to begin to sort of say what's good for the future. and i think that that's -- >> dilma said that to the country speak with no. i said that this is what has to happen. fernando, whatever happens there, the leadership with the parties have to find some consensus to move out of this would be the best, whether it's a transition. and so far we haven't really seen that. >> we have time for a few more questions. we have a couple in the back. please be brief because time is limited. >> george washington university. i would just like to challenge this notion that there is all this uncertainty. i think there's a problem also with liquidity. we do know what is at the menu for governance decisions, or for the issue of the economy. and on that i agree with peter

that brazil has recovered really well, but the problem i think that brazil has right now is that the economy, the past 10, 15 years, big on commodities to what is that we are to expect first is the world economy to recover, particularly china. and expectation was that brazil would continue to boom if oil was at 100, so that's what petrobras was so powerful. but now that oil is down in the world demand for commodity is out there, what is the government doing in terms of changing economic model cracks that for me as part of puzzle. because otherwise the expectation and the uncertainty will say since we don't have a good economic recovery, we need a political solution for the. i think there is kind of mixing the problems there that really kind of, it's not very clear what his company we know what the fiscal problem is, but what

is economic problem? if it, audie dependence will continue, for is their political will to change somebody's elements? >> behind you and then you. you have been very patient. >> thank you. i am with pan-american health world health organization, following on the already important part of cooperation i would like to mention that there is a sector in the executive branch has a very good program in place, and its working. and it's -- [inaudible] it is exactly the same to follow recommendations by the world bank -- were the biggest challenge for the unified system was sustaining expansion of basic health care. and this is being accomplished with more and more national,

from brazil, american doctors, but there is a perfect design to bring a sustainability by creating more -- american students, et cetera. so my point here is how do we protect something that is working, that is expanding access? we know, and we've learned from the crisis there is no escaping from building resilient health systems your and this program is helping to increase the resilience of the system that has been built 27 years and has continued to develop with it having a very good program in place now. >> thank you very much for the contribution. >> the financial times. one quick question. you talked a little bit about former president lula. what are his plans and

prospects? >> you do the plans you do the prospects. we will divide it up. [inaudible] this economic recession caused by petrobras and all the this nation and corruption, how will it affect other latin american countries? when you have a company which is the size of many latin american countries, one has to wonder. >> wait for the mic upon, plea please. >> i first became ever so expert when i was writing telegrams as a foreign service officer about the new constitution and a foregone brazil ever since, left the state department some years ago. going back to what was said about the constitutional structural fiscal imbalance, the

constitution, 15 constitution also creator a federal public prosecutors office on steroids creating the incredible autonomy and strength -- [inaudible] there's nothing in the executive branch could to stop it if you want to under the constitution. so my question is a structural one. you who are all experts on brazil, do you think, there is an argument that could be made that this strength of the federal prosecutors action is good for brazil in the long-term, actually is a strengthen factor for the consolidation and continuation of a good democracy. but, of course, it has created the current crisis.

if the executive branch were in charge of the prosecutors as an attractive none of this would've been revealed. because the executive branch would have shut it down. so i would like to know, and when they made the comparison to other latin american countries, thought like you to discuss whether or not this strong federal prosecutors office is infected or import a positive factor in brazil, or is it a factor that is harmful to the economy because of its effect on the private sector? >> thank you so much. michael. >> pbs online news hour. i realize one street protester being interviewed by an american journalist dustups before 100 billion loss people. this protester did tell the journalists it's time to bring back the military. how secure is --

>> 100% secure against military -- >> could wait for that response. i knew he would jump out of his chair without one. one final question. [speaking spanish] [laughter] spend[speaking spanish]

[speaking spanish] >> thank you very much. why don't we go back, peter, why don't you start and then we will go to paulo and finish up. >> oh, boy. get organized. >> you don't have to answer every question. >> on the commodities issue i think from what i'm beginning to your is that the commodity cycle was not so important in brazil as it's made out to be. that, in fact, the question was whether this is going to be a consumer led economy. it's got all the consumers into

huge debt. they were driving this, but the estimates of the world bank and imf and others are not commodities didn't quit play ase a role in brazil as a have any number of other countries. and it is going to be a change, i suspect it's not going to come from the government. it's going to come from sort of investors. the government has to do is let the invest, sort of make the environment more friendly. but i'm not sure that the commodities is the central feature. regarding whether prosecutors are plus or a minus, i think there's no doubt that they would be a plus if the rest of the system were working. that's for sure. so one has to say editor of one bric in place that is a better audit others are being reconsidered than it is to sort of have all of them working

badly together. so i would keep it basically applause that it's good to have this. certainly at this point say sort of the judge that is sorted out central of much of this is sort of a hero to the people on the streets, and probably would be elected president if it was an open election at this point. so obviously i think a lot of brazilians think it's a very good thing. on the health, you know, that's beyond, i agree, health is important. it's good to protect it. and paraguay, you know, small countries get treated carefully than bigger countries. you must know that by now. and nobody if they impeach the

president in brazil for reasons or without reasons, and finally the military i think, paulo is probably right, that there's little, the military isn't coming back anywhere in latin america that i can see, even in sort of honduras, the military was sort of able to take charge. parlous in brazil, not going to play a role in brazil. >> peter, can you comment on the question on the regional implications of this? >> is so uncertain what's going to happen in brazil, it's hard to. but it's clear, -- heavily invested throughout latin america including building a major construction project in cuba. and so if they were to go bankrupt, which is not impossible, if they were to sort

of run into a possibility of operating, unable to get any more government contracts which is probable, this is going to sort of effect projects in many countries and it is only one of eight or 10 construction companies. this is a big investment that brazil has in many other countries and it's why they were able to fund it because they were funding brazilian companies. it's been the construction companies that have been really most active in most other countries, held in infrastructure, et cetera. [inaudible] that port will be very advantage, advantages to american interest when it is ready, inspection of the united

states with a little bit of the test to work late, the chances to normalize relations with the country of cuba. they will remain there and give the failed, someone will buy those things. i would not be -- [inaudible] very controversial because it involves the cubans, to which i say if brazilian doctors are not going to go answer the people of brazil where we need service, i want cuban, russian, chinese, although doctors as long as they treat the people. and the problem now is that money is starting to go down. there has been reports now about some including a cuban doctor that became the poster boy of the whole program that has

received -- the our fiscal in nature, michael, about the military, don't think so lowly of the military in brazil. they are intelligent, sensible people. they are not interested in doing think anything other than serving the country. they are not interested in do the job that civilian should be doing which is to govern the country. they will not participate in a to come and to think that we should put that question to really to rest. there's not going to be a coup d'état in brazil. there's also a question on the prosecutors, i completely agree with peter. democracies change slowly. the other day i've been hearing more and more because this very unpopular president of the united states that seems to be doing, you know, making little bit different in terms of some initiatives, some agreement,

some things are happening in internally. big changes are made up of small changes. one small change happening in brazil, it's not last year that started. it started before. because there are people, believe it or not, in all branches of government in brazil trying to do good work. we are seeing the results. is it. i think the danger that people run in brazil, politicians went in brazil if they tried to do this proverbial pizza in brazil and to undo and to take authority away from the federal prosecutors office, to undermine the judge and other changes doing similar work. that i think is what could lead to an explosion. don't touch that, because that

is the i think it's almost, is achieving a level of sacredness in brazil. people are really, that's the part that people feel proud about. and i think it's going to continue to reform. on the other thing, i think the question, i like this, to think about the problem of the brazilian economy, a problem of competitiveness, of low expectation. brazil has been the largest copper producer in the world. do you know juan valdez? juan valdez is from venezuela. do you own an espresso? that's his. we are good at producing and abiding backs of 60 kilos of coffee, and because we are a commodity country, but we cannot sell the little -- i would love so much and adds value.

this is one example. when we put our minds to do those things, when we put our minds to do good things, we have -- [inaudible] we have the solutions. solutions are all in brazil, and needs more and more cooperation. it is a lot of cooperation. there's a program of cooperation between the air force and the institute of technology. you know that a better that all people here. we know what the problems are. they are difficult. i don't think brazil has an alternative. and i go to brazil and i look to young people in brazil, i don't think that they will accept solutions that will be the business as usual. the other day i read something, my dear friend brian winter, about brazil going back to the old ways.

i disagree with that because there are new ways. and, finally, i think president lula from the news that we see, he continues to be a very excellent politician, but he is under federal criminal investigations. davos news in brazil that dilma said was think about nominating president lula to be a minister of per capita it's not because she wanted to improve the quality of the specific ministry, the president would probably be very forceful in many ministries, but because that would give him total -- [inaudible] changing in case he was indicted he would be kind of protected from the prosecutor of the regular folk in brazil. i think the president thinks about that. i feel very sad and that a president as popular as president lula, now you see he's

a puppet in prison things. it's very sad because he was a transformative figure in brazil and now he's in a situation. i think resident lula, is he going to come back as president, et cetera? most of my friends, analysts out in brazil believe there's no chance of that happening. i would not go so far but i think the chances of that happening are very slim right now. because, you know, there's also something that happened in brazilian politics, biology. biology happens, and it continues to happen and it will have an impact. there is a new generation of politicians coming up. we didn't know, five years ago we did know who sergio was. now we know. there's also new blood, new politicians, people that are looking at the situation and

analyzing if they want to jump into the system. the political system in brazil is unraveling, completely dysfunctional. and but for our know, as peter said, there's a lot of uncertainty, but stay tuned and don't bet against brazil because -- >> final word. ..