and made it worse than it actually was. the other cool kids are to speak was a georgetown set a. my old employer mrs. graham. back in the day they really did have some power. at the dinner parties and heads of the cia and the state department would get together and 1950 after nixon won the u.s. senate race committee invited mix, be invited next into dinner to kind of check them out to see who was this new guy. they also introduced him as russell nixon. the ambassador said i will not break bread with this man and he walked out. you can imagine how mr. and mrs. nixon, how richard and pat nixon felt this couple can do

sophisticated people to be treated like that and adjust left a bad taste and it got worse after he was elected president. nixon sent henry kissinger to be his ambassador to this world to mrs. graham and to the georgetown crowd and kissinger did great. charming and funny but pretty soon he was making jokes about the president pretty much on a weekly basis joking about the fearless leader and talking about the drinking habits. of course this bothered fixing, how could it not be he tried to be philosophical about it. he said he's insecure comedian needs this kind of support. and he would tease kissinger and when he was leaving for the evening he would take there goes henry off to talk to his georgetown friends were the "washington post." but of course it will give him and he couldn't help he wanted to get even with kissinger and

the georgetown crowd and that resentment was building. and the famous white house tapes interestingly he installed those tapes and the reason he put them in was to have a record so that he could read that kissinger's version because he was going around saying macs and is a hawk and i'm a reasonable guy, nixon is the crazy person. there was something to that but it wasn't the whole truth by any means and nixon wanted to record on things like going to china. that wasn't kissinger's idea it was nixon. in fact, when they told kissinger that nixon wanted a ticket to china his response in 1969 was fat chance. now the tapes are terrible. a lot of you have heard excerpts of them. you know why, nixon said terrible things, he made remarks were racist things, but i listen

to a lot of the tapes, hundreds of hours of these tapes and my strong impression is that a lot of this was posturing on nixon's part. it's this kind of awful thing that isn't unusual for the period and certain type of mail that has has to showed a show what a man he is by swearing a lot and the swearing actually was no more than say the "washington post" where i worked. [laughter] but there was an arrogance and yet it contrasts with his coolness at other times. nixon could be very cool and he was good with world leaders because he didn't make small taxes he didn't even try. he talked about interest and not ideology. he got right down to business.

he was a fairly cool hand in those circumstances. in his office with all the men haldeman and ehrlichman, he could get wound up and say a lot of bad stuff but there's a kind of quality obj knew how to square. [laughter] mixing there was something kind of think about it and there's another side to nixon late at night he would take his legal yellow pad and he would go to the sitting room and make notes to himself and those notes he would describe the man he wanted to be and he would use words like joyful and serene and inspiring and competent, all words that we don't really associate with which her nixon but this is the person he wished to be. he didn't do it once or twice, he did it all the time and he inspired to be somebody that he couldn't really be. it would last for a while and

then he would lash out. again the tapes missed things. nixon was substantive. if you listen to the tapes, he had a level of knowledge and expertise particularly on foreign policy that is deep. nixon was always saying they hate intellectuals. he said i don't like intellectuals there's something feminine about them. i would rather talk to an athlete. he was a terrible athlete but a great intellectual. i asked at the library to show me the private library and he would read heavily into the political theory, philosophers, political biography, everything that churchill ever wrote underlining and making the notes in the margin and he did he'd read more than the normal president because he didn't want to talk to people. he was always going on about harvard, none of them into

cabinet. well of course he hired a lot of harvard guys including the two top aides henry kissinger was a professor and daniel patrick moynihan was a harvard professor. so, he would give these crazy workers, you know, cut the cia. the staff knew to ignore a lot of those orders. but he was just venting and blowing off steam. but not always. pentagon papers leaked. you remember this it's not even mentioned in the pentagon papers it's about the kennedy johnson administration that he gets himself all wound up partly for legitimate reasons he doesn't like this one because they are conducting secret diplomacy and nixon is afraid it's going to leak out that he gets himself all wound up and he wants the fbi to come in and spying on

ellsberg. they want the fbi to dig some dirt on ellsberg. she editor hoover partly because of this shrewd politician that he is can see the wind is changing they are starting to be lawsuits about the illegal tapping and the court, the supreme court, the law is starting to change. hoover has been running this whole empire all these years. i think i'm going to get out of this business because we are all going to get caught read what that meant is that since the fbi wouldn't do any more nixon went in the house and he created the plumbers as an in-house operation. and that all sounds terribly sinister but the one thing about the plumbers is the day were clumsy. they were bad at it. ..

very tender and moving from the early years. both of them started drinking too much. they really stop talking to each other and a guy named frank

gannon who wrote nixon's memoirs and was around then set it down or they would not talk about the main thing. they would talk about anything but the main thing but at night they would pass a note to each other and leave notes like that of tolstoy. always avoiding the main topic to try to be polite with each other as their world collapsed. when nixon decided to resign he didn't tell pat. he told rosemary woods the secretary to tell pat. that's how distant he was at the end and of course he got the famous getting on his knees with kissinger and asking kissinger to pray with him on the last night. that's a true story. kissinger came back to his office. he was still kind of undone by this and started telling about this on the phone ring and it

was richard nixon on the phone asking kissinger not to tell anybody because he was so embarrassed. kissinger put his aid on an extension and it was in the "washington post" in two days. nixon when he left office almost died of phlebitis. a nurse was literally slapping is facing wake-up richard, wake up that he came back and he came back. he would have these dinners for all the journalists. he would have dinners and michael kremer of the times came to his townhouse and was glad to be asked with chinese dinner and all that and had to make a phonecall so used nixon's study and he found nixon had not only without his talking points for the dinner but his small talk as well, the bad jokes, the whole thing. he was always prepared and nixon did repair his marriage. he did.

when pat died there are photographs of nixon and he is undone. he is not just crying he is sobbing and falling. he is inconsolable. he may have had in halderman's words a weird marriage. she stood with him and she backed them up and you really missed her when she died and within a couple of years he himself was dead. nixon could never admit really that he did wrong. he sort of did with david frost and nixon said i gave him the sword and they stuck it in an he said of course i would have done the same but he never admitted he had done anything immoral. and one thing about nixon was he had this kind of lack of self-awareness. not until the very end of his presidency literally his last words as he is about, talking

with staff at the white house about to get on a helicopter to fly into exile he says to his staff always remember others may hate you but those that hate you don't win unless you hate them and then you destroy yourself. too late. [laughter] did that just occurred to him? that's the whole story right there in one sentence. thus the whole story of nixon's self-destruction and demise. the night before that nixon was talking to us other than law eddie cox and the books are in the library and nixon said this is just a tube play out. this caught my attention and i looked at nixon school papers which are preserved in the nixon library to see if nixon himself had written a paper on julius seas are buddy totally lift --

missed the boat. it was all lost on him. interestingly nixon's brother ed grandma millhouse had warned them. she was a quaker and she said us is going to get into trouble. it was a lesson lost on nixon. he just couldn't get it. it's like next and had a sense of destiny. he thought it was destined to be a great man and even though he was shy and lonely he was going to be that great man. leonard garment was a lawyer in new york, somewhat of an odd couple. leonard garment was a new york jazz position a jewish guy who put for the kennedys and yet he and nixon were good pals. they went down to florida together to give a speech and

they were supposed to spend the night in a new housing development and nixon had political instincts. the owners of this new development for were going to use nixon sum up to promote their development and he was going to be using some uncomfortable voice. they got in their limousine and drove 40 miles to the house of an old nixon patriot of big money guy. they got to nixon's fancy estate in florida. it was all holed up and it was dark. there were dates in a wall around it so nixon said okay leonard over the wall we go. they threw the briefcases or climbed over the wall and went to the pool house and found a couple of beds and nixon was a chronic insomniac, the guy just never slept, started talking to garment about his hopes and fears and it was like summer camp.

nixon went on and on about his parents and their desire to accomplish things in the world than being gauged in the world then he said if he didn't do this, if he didn't get back into public life somewhere between being vice president losing the governor's race in 62 and is didn't get back into public life he would be mentally gone and two years he just had to be in public life. he said i will do anything to get back to public life. except see a shrink. of course he was seeing a shrink he didn't see them often but he did see a shrink. it's typical of nixon's contradictions. i kept asking next the question how self-aware was nixon. do you think nixon was self-aware and most people said no.

every once in a while he took a little peek at himself. i asked jim schlessinger who had been the cia director and schlessinger said no and schlessinger looked out the window and said who is? it's a fair question particularly for famous powerful men. if you think about yourself too much it's hard to get out of bed and save the world if you are worrying about who you are really. so that blind or what those blinkers on his characteristic of powerful men but nixon had it worse than most and yet, and yet i can prove this but i'm convinced the nixon at some level knew that he was locked into this terrible struggle. think of those writing those notes later tonight about wanting to be a better person wanting to be joyful. he couldn't pull it off but he wanted to be that person i knew he was locked in a struggle with darkness. he lost that struggle but it's a

great tragedy and a great story and one of the great stories of our time and you can read it. thank you. [applause] happy to take questions. >> i'm a veteran and i lost four people in nam after he was elected at the end the last four under johnson. do you think he really did his best to get us out of vietnam and an orderly fashion or did they drag it out for re-election sake? >> this is a very fair question and a huge scholarly debate. there is a theory and there's a lot of evidence to prove that nixon and kissinger were cynical. it goes like this, that if we pull out our free pull out too fast saigon will fall.

we will be blamed for it and i want when the 1972 election and there is evidence that they talk that way but there's also a lot of evidence running the other way that nixon would get mad and he would urge the military to try harder and he would have these spasms of violence, the bombing of 1972. he did a little of that in 1969 the christmas bombings of the evidences contradict you about whether he wanted to win or not. takes larger question, why did we get the hello out in 1969? at the same deal in 1973 that we could have gotten in 1969. i don't actually buy that. nixon was hung up on this idea of giving president chu of vietnam some breathing room. if you pull out right away the north vietnamese were in negotiations. chu has got to go and only in

the fall of 72 after he bombed them heavily and bonds the harbors saying chu and stay. it may be cynical but they figure it would fall eventually anyway. nixon wanted to win some breathing room for the soviet meets government. he did and it was only 22 months before they fell. war was bitter and academics are going to fight over this for a long time because the evidence is contradictory. bobby kennedy said i will just get out of vietnam. i don't think he would have been i don't think he could have. you have 550,000 men there come a don't just get on a plane and fly home so there are a lot of arguments on this whole subject that i don't think nixon was out out -- i think the war was that

it was a hello of a problem. when i read about it i struggled in my own mind to think how could this have been different and how could they have done it smarter and better? cambodia was a mistake but it was a hello of a problem. he inherited a war with half a million men but the fierce enemy who weren't going to give up no matter what and uncertain ally. ask president obama about how hard it is to deal with an uncertain ally. >> acuvue the charges by hitchens that henry and next included when peace talks were about to happen in 68 with johnson and they colluded? >> it's a little complicated so bear with me for one second. in 1968 nixon is running against humphrey and do not sober of 1968 president johnson decides to go for peace talks in paris

and there's a lot of evidence that nixon played foul here that he had an emissary the so-called dragon lady to go to the south vietnamese and say don't take this, wait until i get elected and you will get a better deal out of me. johnson national security agency fbi were listening on the phone and can't nixon planning. private citizens are supposed to make foreign policy but beyond that johnson said look this is treason. johnson did not expose nixon for a couple of reasons. one is he didn't want to expose his wiretaps but also there will wasn't that visual nonaggression pact between i won't leakey your dirt if you don't like mine. both sides collect dirt on each

other but mutually-assured destruction. that's one reason why but the counterargument was chu didn't need any persuading. he wasn't going to go to paris anyway. he knew it was better to wait for nixon so that is the nixon defense. it's not a great defense but it didn't make any difference because chu wasn't going to go to paris anyway. >> thank you for coming. quick question you talk a lot about nixon and kissinger and i'm curious whether anti-semitism and give her fine throughout his life in a particular incident or events that caused that and also did you find any issues when he spoke to goal the meir and things of that issue? >> nixing gets on this thing

about the number of jewish and the bureau of labor statistics and it's just awful. that's not the only time. nixon had a knee-jerk anti-semitism not typical of his generation or of other presidents. roosevelt and truman use bad words but his was worse. always with nixon was complicated he goes nixon loved gold the meir and she loved him. in 1973 kissinger and nixon are playing at a little bit queue. the nixon administration wants egypt to make some gains against israel because they think it will be a better piece that will come out of it but actually the war goes badly for israel in the first few days. nixon realizes that bureaucratic

state and defense are dragging their feet and nixon says send every plane. i would don't want to hear this. we are going to save israel and they do and they were cheering in the streets as those american planes flew in with those supplies. i was nixon overcoming his bureaucracy including kissinger who was resisting this. nixon was a hero to goal the meir. it's hard to reconcile these things. he was liberal on a lot of issues. president eisenhower's point man , he was actually friendly with martin with a cane when the democrats were ignoring you have to see through that

filter but i think nixon himself , these little things. at a time of terrible racism he insists on taking up lack member of his fraternity at whittier. everyone else was against it. nixon spoke out against it. he was a quaker. it's hard to fit these pieces together. that is what made nixon so fun to write about. it ain't simple. >> latino population shift between nixon and eisenhower? >> talk about complicated. [laughter] president eisenhower or appreciated what a good vice president nixon was a nixon was a good vice president. he was responsible. when eisenhower had his heart attack he step down in a very measured way but eisenhower

didn't like nixon. eisenhower's son john told me when i wrote about eisenhower he said my father gave himself in order to like nixon. [laughter] the famous checkers speech comes about because candidate dwight general eisenhower's wanting to dump nixon from the ticket over a fake scandal. nixon has to go on national tv to save himself. extremely lonely and eisenhower traced to dump him again in 1976. nixon is up in the hospital was psychosomatic illness over this ended in a press conference dwight eisenhower is asked by a reporter tell us something that vice president nixon did to help your administration and eisenhower answered if you give me a week i will think of something. and yet, and yet nixon's

daughter married ike's grandson. nixon gave ike's eulogy and it was a very tender eulogy, you know. another character of the time that has been caricatured as alexander hague. what is your view on him and hasn't changed much when you do the research? >> he is a tricky guy. his own aid chuck wardell said to me that hague is pathologically ambitious. he was a brave soldier but a great political soldier more than anything else. he was constantly being vaulted over the other generals and he played a lot of double games. he was kissinger's chief aide but would sell out kissinger when he was with nixon and sell out next and when he was with kissinger. he could play all sides of the street. there was some question about

whether hague was really loyal to nixon preview may recall when when -- and ehrlichman were fired in 1973 hague comes as the chief of staff and for the last 15 months there some evidence of hague being not entirely loyal to nixon in this period. i don't really know the extent of it because i think hague was playing a lot of games, keeping his options open but hague is a guy you would like to work or you but he was brilliant, smart, tough, great at shelving the paper which you wouldn't trust. [inaudible] >> the issue was how was nixon behaving before and there was a whole theory, not sure it's true but there's a body of evidence that suggests that. >> thank you for coming.

would you be willing to speak a little bit about nixon's campaign contributions and then particular allegations about his involvement with. >> i know there's a theory about that on not an expert on this is all but i don't think there's any proof of it. however nixon sold chips for $250,000 a pop. he's not a worse present to sell ambassadorship but he did in the more grotesque fashion that i was taught in to a guy named john rose who was working on the committee to reelect the president and he recalled a phonecall from stevie whitney who is a rich playboy he wanted to find ambassadorship to spain and pete flanagan was on the phone saying i don't think so, barbados maybe. [laughter] >> would the top place about

nixon's southern strategy and is still effective? >> the key thing, southern strategy as you know, we forget this but the south, the american south was solidly radack for the democratic party up until the 60s and then split and it became republican. that was partly because the democrats endorse civil rights and lbj civil rights acts. think about this for a second. i'm here to talk about nixon not lbj but how great it was for democrats to give away their natural base to the south for a principle at nixon played on this of course because he wanted to call the south and he used a lot of language. with nixon it was always important and john mitchell who was attorney general said watch what we do, not what we say because while nixon was doing

all of this rhetoric was quietly desegregating public schools in the south. in 1970 the public schools in the south were still segregated incredibly. only about 10% of black kids went to integrated schools when nixon came into office or because of what nixon did within a couple of years 80% were. he totally transform that and it was classic nixon the way they did that. he said i want to do this under the radar screen that they committed these committees in each state of everything from black militants they brought these committees up to washington. george shultz ran all of this. nixon was good at hiring people. george shultz was a nixon hired they would bring these guys in. they would take them to the state department and give them a good meal and come in and say we are going to enforce the law which was to segregation and the nixon took some of them into the

oval office and he would say this is the oval office, the swear the tough decisions get made. now you have to make your decision. every single one of those state commissions said okay agreed to disaggregate. the numbers don't lie. the schools, almost all desegregated in that period three the president paid no attention to them. they were paying attention to the rhetoric and the southern strategy and the rhetoric could be pretty bad. they weren't watching what nixon was actually doing. classic nixon watch what we do and not what we say. some strategies obviously work for the republican party but nixon, not excusing him, nixon knew how to play on fear. that was one thing that nixon was really good at was playing on people's fears. their hope sometimes but their fears and he did that in the southern strategy. excuse me, there is a mic here.

>> following up i have heard it said, i agree looking back at a lot of the domestic policy was rather enlightened but i have heard it said that nixon didn't give a dam about domestic policy , only foreign policy and whatever was accomplished was by some of his staff some of who were quite illustrious. today he said that, don't give a dam about domestic policy and what they are doing in peoria but he didn't mean it. he hired as his chief to mystic adviser daniel patrick moynihan aide kennedy democrat who came up with a radical idea for reforming welfare. he was about 20 years at. didn't pass but nixon took it ready for. he was guaranteed minimum income. it would get rid of all the bureaucrats and nixon hated bureaucrats but it was a radical idea and i was actually a pretty

good idea. nixon was very engaged with it. nixon's record makes him look like what we today would call a liberal. he created the epa. why did he create the epa? parter was political expediency. senator muskie, ed muskie of maine was a big environment list and it looked like muskie was going to be the democratic candidate in 1972 so nixon who loved to -- outflank them messed with muskie by proposing and adopting governmental protection agency. it worked. was nixon sincere about that? kind of. you know he did care about conservation. he gave mixed signals on it but he said if i could choose between business and the environment i'm going to choose business. he would say those kinds of

things that he would tell his young aide who is making these rules, he would say when we make these rules don't talk to that of the commerce department. you just do it and i will take care of stand. typical nixon pitting one made against another doing it by secrecy but actually doing a lot and nixon's record on environment not just the epa was pretty good. now typically nixon refused to invite muskie to the signing ceremony and inactive typical pettiness that the record stands for itself. they did a lot on the environment. they created osha and expanded social security from the elderly to the disabled and they spent way more on the art than his predecessor. get rid of the draft, introduced a national health care plan that teddy kennedy stopped on his deathbed regretted having stopped. he said i'm sorry we stop nixon

[inaudible] alger hiss and so on. it was the most i've ever seen in my life. i am not an expert. actually i found it very un-american because he was very cynical about it. everything that he did i've never seen in politics. at that time he was the most cynical man i've ever seen. he was conducting the hearings. he didn't allow any defense or rebuttal of any kind. he had such control environment are looking at this at the same time.

he was cynical although not as cynical as he appears to be. he was a show off and that was defense. he was a shy guy putting up this kind of awkward defensive setting and he sounded insincere but look nixon was genuine about his patriotism and public service. one of the ironies is that mixing through watergate did a lot to diminish the public's faith in government service. this would break his heart because nixon believed in service in serving the country. and yet he did a lot and that is

one of the strategies. thank you. >> can you discuss the impact on the court i recently heard a speaker at the historical society and a paper saying that at one point, they were going to nominate one of the first women members of chivas' as candidate and that it was all political expediency. >> they were serious about wanting a woman on the court. but they did have - there was a candidate, the male-dominated wretch rose you could imagine what the committee was like in

1970. nixon backed off fairly quickly but it's significant that he ran up the flagpole and thought about it and he joked when they said no. he said that there would be hell to pay. and he was quite about that. nixon was ahead of his time on the women's rights generally. he set out and got a very - he set out to hire good women in their early days and they did more. it he was ahead of the curve on that. he was difficult to pretty good father and very close to his daughter's hoover tender within.

now, you know, i don't want to go too far down the road because of this richard nixon, but you do have to take the whole man and there were pieces of him to did try to do the right thing on this. >> as far as whether there was any reliable information about being involved in corruption i thought some of the more recently released tapes there was a clear indication that the conversations were between nixon and perhaps his lawyer when he was president about the release of jimmy from jail and it was a way are in effect they got money for political use with an agreement that he wouldn't be able to run for the position of the union.

>> that would be one instance. nixon took money as all presidents do particularly in a time for questionable things. lyndon johnson did that, bobby kennedy wasn't above doing this kind of thing so it is shady and reprehensible but it wasn't unique to. >> my question is about the reproach that with china. i haven't read the book yet, i will admit that. the review in "the wall street journal" said you tended to minimize the reproach went.

my understanding is the reproach went was conducted. because of the soviets feared that the chinese could open up once every 500 miles on a 20,000 front the two countries share a. i would like for you to comment on your views on the doctrine. >> nixon did this under the radar for a long time. there was a private conversation we need to include china.

nobody paid any attention to it. he had a number of motives. you can't forever excluded the chinese. >> they were anxious about the chinese and the chinese were anxious and mixing loved love this pudding one side against the other and he played that and kissinger deserve credit. >> this was the linkage they were going to link all these things together ultimately to

get the lead on the north vietnamese government that the main patrons lean on them to take a deal with a. it took some guts and some vision to do it. despite all the facts. >> is the only president to be driven from office.

it doesn't mean he didn't do some great things as well. he did in perfect things us was really terrible things. he was a shy with national tickets lee fdr did that.

he was vice president of twice. i will make this last question. i'm interested about the timing and doing the biography is a. why is this a good time for the nixon biography and is there sort of an optical time? >> it's always a good time. [laughter] [applause]

i made a good run at it. there was an incredible amount of the question. almost all of the tapes have been released. he knew it was on the tapes and he spent millions of dollars trying to stop them from being released. almost all of them took 700 hours including a lot of the classified stuff. almost all of the documents are. so in terms of documents you can't really get into his head between. the record is rich enough but there will be new interpretations. >> thank you. [applause]

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host: joining us is julie appleby who is the senior correspondent for "kaiser health news." the to talk to us about affordable care act, and particularly -- in particular the cadillac tax. first of all tell us about the difference between "kaiser health news" and the kaiser health organization. we are not part of kaiser permanente. we are an independent branch which is a research organization. we are entirely independent. we write stories about policy. this story is starting to come into the news because congress returns next week. there is some topic congress might do something about this impending tax. first of all tell us what would this text do and why was it implemented, why was it part of the affordable care act? guest: it is called the cadillac

tax because it is aimed at these expensive health plans that have generous benefits. how does it work? under the provision there will be a 40% excise tax on any health benefit that costs more than $10,200 a year for an individual worker, or $27,500 for a family plan. remember, this is only on job-based insurance, that you get for your job. if you got an employer that is offering a family plan that costs $30,000 year, the tax on that plan, starting in 2018, , which is a tax on the amount above that threshold. that sounds a lot of money. , it is.t in perspective the average cost of a family health plan on offered by an employer right now is about $70,000 year. so the threshold is higher, but some plant can cost more. kaiser family

foundation put out a report on how that is going to affect employees, employers, looking at the chart of the percent of employers who offer health plan benefits with plans that would 5%eed the limit with a premium growth, in 2018 expected of employers would exceed that limit part -- that limit. . in 2023, 30% and in 2028 42%. what does that mean in the long run for the longevity of employer-provided health care? guest: it depends. congress gave employers about eight years. they know it was coming. it did not again until 2018 although a lot of law kicked in last year. it gave time to try to adjust their policies. the way they do that is different. remember, most employers still offer plans that do not hit that threshold, and if they do there are ways they can try to reduce the cost, what they are spending on health benefits.

one way to do that is to raise deductibles. generally that lowers the premium. that has been going on even before this law, that has been a trend. employers have been shifting more costs to workers. it is one thing employers can do. the other thing is that this is not just taste on the cost -- based on the cost of the insurance benefit. a lot of employers offer flexible spending accounts. you put dollars and and you going by glasses at the end of the year, or whenever is not necessarily covered by your insurance. they could be affected because they go into this total, health savings accounts also. all of these things added together are what reach that total. some folks say that employers are going to ratchet back some of those benefits. host: is it possible though that those benefits go away but the bottom line on one's paycheck would get higher? guest: that is a theory.

that the money that is spent on your benefits is money you are not getting on your paycheck. however that is not always how it works out. we will have to see what happens, if somebody suddenly dollars00 or 5000 deductible in their health plan that did not see before will they see this in their wages? we don't know. host: we want to bring our listeners and viewers into the conversation. we're breaking up our phone lines a little bit differently for this conversation. if you are enrolled via the affordable care act, use (202) 748-8000. if you are enrolled in a private insurance program, (202) 748-8001. and for all others (202) 748-8002. a headline here says cadillac tax -- this from u.s. news & world report -- a portion of obamacare both parties hate.

unions and employers are in board -- onboard board with repealing the cadillac tax. couple of house has a bills pending. at the senate, there is a talk about putting in a repeal of the tax. there are a lot of people who are opposed to this tax on both sides of the aisle. democrats and republicans have concerns about this tax. the democrats and the republicans have different reasons for those concerns, but the text of democrats is problematic because -- tax for democrats is problematic because labor unions are not happy with it. many labor unions have said they have negotiated lower wages in exchange for better benefits. they are worried that these more generous health funds may be ratcheted back. the democrats would like to make them happy. at the same time one of the reasons congress put this in the raiser anda revenue

a way to slow health care costs going forward. if you take it out, where is the $87 billion over a decade, where is that going to come from? there is no tax on it, so that $87 billion would come. guest: so for the republicans it is a little bit more problematic because many republicans want to repeal the entire affordable care act. the question is then, do you repeal one piece of it, and unpopular piece of it, and with that then we can the momentum towards repealing the entire thing? and according to the washington post, 26% of employers could face cadillac tax on health insurance. we hear from bill in tyler, texas, who has private insurance. welcome. caller: good morning. my question is, i am on social security disability. i am qualified for and i do have medicare. i am paying roughly $100 a month for that.

i have got private insurance from my wife's -- my question is, why doesn't the rates and premiums for your private insurance go down once you have medicare? it seems to me that is medicare covers approximately 80% of the bill, the private insurance company is getting the leftovers. why doesn't the premium go down in costa? that's my question right -- that's my question. guest: that's a very good question. i think that depends on if your medicare is primary or secondary. generally rates are set in a regional area based on the cost in that area, the labor cost, negotiations that they have made with insurers, with hospitals and with doctors in that system, and to some extent raised on the age of the person who is enrolling. remember, under the affordable

care act, things change a little bit. they can no longer charge you more if you have a previous health condition, that type of thing. they can only base it on your age as a couple of other factors. that is the difference. but again, without knowing all the details i can't give you an exact answer. host: in maryland, also with private insurance, olap --ola. caller: thank you for taking my call. just in reference with attack -- with the tax, what the company ok, weg to do is go should cut in some way somehow health care costs, and it is not going to go to everyone. you is next question for around the fact that if someone decides to go out and buy insurance and is it for -- is as

rich as they could be, -- guest: so this is just for job-based insurance. it is what your employer offers you. and economist and others say that the reason that they want islook at high cost plans because they feel that it encourages wasteful spending. if you have got a plan with all these bells and whistles that covers all kinds of things with very little on the workers -- cost-sharing on the workers part, it encourages more use of the health care system, in their minds, and this might drive up health care costs over time. in theory this would show -- slow rising health care costs if the plants were less generous and people had to spend a little bit more of their own money for health care. in theory this gets people to think twice about whether they actually need something. that is one of the reasons why this was put into law.

again, this just affects job-based insurance. it does not affect the policies that are sold through the federal and state marketplaces to people who buy their own insurance because they do not get it through their jobs. host: you said it is going to affect people who have health spending account, hsa's or fsa's. could there be an issue with people planning for next year, 2016 or 2017, deciding in advance that they do not want to put money in their because that is money that they will get taxed on in 2018? guest: remember, the tax on this is only on the insurer or the employer. it is not going to be directly on you, the worker. that what you might see happening as may be some employers are going to say you know what, our tax plan is really close to this limit, and if people put money in an fsa that could bump is over. employers might ratchet down the amount you are allowed to put in. right now you're allowed to put in up to $2500. that is pre-taxed.

then you can use that money for certain medical related expenses. host: does that $2500 include what the company would provide? guest: generally workers just put money into the account. sometimes employers pop in a little bit of money to help them plate -- pay their deductible. what employers may be doing now is looking ahead to 2018 and saying maybe we need to ratchet back some of those things. and david in florida with private insurance. go ahead. caller: good morning. my first question is why aren't they indexing that dollar amount for the cadillac tax? that would be the first question. onlyecond one is, there is so much room to increase deductibles and out-of-pocket maximum because in the affordable health care act it says you cannot pay a deductible past this amount, i think it is the00 and change for out-of-pocket, as the deductible can only go up so much.

at some point we are going to run out of room to do plan to design changes, and that cadillac tax look again no matter what, because it is a space to offset the cadillac tax in the upcoming years. i would be curious, why aren't they indexing this is what happens when we run out of design options? guest: that is one of the concerns. that is why you see in some of these surveys like the kaiser family foundation did and others have done, over time this tax is going to hit more and more plans offered through employers, because the indexing is going to grow more slowly than the cost of these plants, the cost of medical inflation in general. and because, as david mentioned, there's only so much you can do to slow premium growth. this is one of the things you can do, but it is only one of them and they can only go so far. and folks are running into more and more difficulty with some of these high deductibles, as david mentioned. the out-of-pocket max amount that you can pay every year for

an individual plan, is, as he mentioned, $6,600 year. it is closer to $30,000 for a family, which is a lot of money. host: also a headline here in forbes, as obamacare cadillac looms, employers costs. the taxes that originally written as a way to help fund subsidize benefits to the uninsured under the law. starting in 2018, employers pay a 40% tax on cost of health plans that are above $10,200 per individual and $27,500 for family coverage. nearly half of large u.s. employers have at least one health plan they offer to their workers that is considered a cadillac plan that will trigger the special exit -- excise tax if the impacted companies don't find a way to curb health costs. the only way to minimize or

delay the cadillac tax is to slow the growth of the total premium, that's his cfo of national business group on health. guest: premium growth in the employer market has been fairly slow over the past few years. it has gone up more slowly than historically. some people like to take credit with that with the affordable care act. some people say it is really not made up much of a difference. there are a lot of factors, one of which is the economy is still kind of slow. people are spending as much on health care as they would in the past. growth has been fairly slow. on the other markets we have been talking about, the one theirfolks go out and buy own coverage, that has always been a volatile market. when you buy your own insurance, year by year, rates could go all kinds of different ways. what we have seen last year was about an average of 8% increase for coverage. we are starting to see some of the numbers coming in for next year's rates, and it is all over the place. it is going to vary state-by-state, it is going to

vary within the state. i saw some figures the other day, california on average said that they had a 4% increase for next year, which is fairly low historically. florida had nine and a half percent, which is a little higher, that again, historically it has buried. it will vary even within states and within plans, and what many experts say is it that you have a plan that you are now buying on the individual market, and you like it, you should look and see what it is going to cost next year when the rates come out early this fall. it may go up, it may not. there may be other less-expensive plans. the message is, shop around. is typically the shopping season for health care, right? both private market and for employers, you get your option to change your plan. guest: many employers to open enrollment in the fall. that is coming up. and in the marketplace where people buy their own insurance they are going to open in november. november 1 people will start shopping and seeing what the cost is going to be.

you need to pick a plan before the end of january. host: we are on the affordable care act, in particular the cadillac tax. if you are000 enrolled in the affordable care act. (202) 748-8001 if you have private insurance. and for all others, (202) 748-8002. carol is enrolled in obamacare, burnsville, north carolina. good morning. caller: yes. since the beginning of the year it does not pay anything. it pays little or nothing on , is absolutely pays nothing on other medical. i was just wondering if this is because of obamacare. i called our representative here in north carolina and she sent ,e a bunch of forms to fill out which is that they want to take a look at your particular situation.

when you question what is going on they say well, you signed up for this plan are in like we're going to sit here and read about inalf inch book on humana order to know all of the little things that they are not going to pay or the fact that they just are paying nothing, which they pay very little before obamacare, now they pay practically nothing. it is just a waste of taxpayer this that they pay humana money every month when we do know it -- when we get no advantage whatsoever. come november we are going to be shopping around to find something different. i was just wondering if she could explain what is going on here with this. host: thank you carol. guest: they do so much for the

call. i think what carol is talking about is that many of these plants have detectable that you have to meet before coverage kicks in. this has been one of the criticisms, not only of plants on the individual market, but plans.ingly employer carol is exactly right in saying that she is going to shop around, and she can look on the healthcare.gov website and try to get a side-by-side comparison of. plans. what the health care act did you is it broke plans down into gold and platinum levels so you can a little bit more easily compare different insurance companies side-by-side that are going to have similar benefits. you really need to look not only at the premium amount, the amount you pay every month, and how much do you have to pay each year before your deductible is met.

what is covered outside the deductible? do you get a couple of different doctor visits? do you get anything? what do you get before you have to pay them. double? oft is something that all those experts say, is that you really need to shop around during open enrollment and compare a number of different plans and not only look at the premium cost. but what are the deductible? host: here are some of what people are saying on twitter. eight tweet from jeff who says whether a direct or indirect tax, the employee will still be negatively affected. and someone else says, the cadillac tax is nothing more than a way to reduce health care. if one wants premium coverage they should be able to have it. and a question, why not just cap the amount of employer provided benefits that are tax exempt, rather than create a separate tax rate? this is what this does attempt to do. it is a big deal because it is the first time that job-based

benefits have been taxed or it currently health benefits you get for your job are not subject to income or payroll taxes. encourages employers to offer more generous benefits than they normally would. it also encourages them to offer these benefits because it is a right off. it is not a cost. the question is, if you taxes benefits, what is to happen to employer-based coverage? a number of republicans have said -- they want to do something about the tax status of insurance, beget is -- because it is the single largest tax exclusion in the federal budget. there have been proposals to cap in some way the tax nature of health benefits. host: and what is the biggest way, what is the biggest revenue driver for the affordable care act? where is the money coming from now? guest: there are a lot of different taxes and fees in the

health care laws. one of the things they did was ratchet asked the rate of growth on medicare plans to get them to be more in line with what we pay thatraditional medicare, was one big way. there are some taxes on insurance, taxes on tanning beds, taxes on a number of different things. this is one of them. it is $87 billion which is a lot of money, but it is just one of different ways that they are bringing in revenue to pay for the cost of health care, including the subsidies for those who buy their own insurance. host: and we go to bruce who has his own private insurance. hello. caller: hi, how are you doing? host: fine. you know i think this will issue would be more clear to people if they understood that this is simply social engineering, and what we are going to do is going to take the revenue from people who are responsible and take care of themselves and take care of people who are irresponsible. you have to come to the point

where you finally say that the social engineering and the actuary tables are the two things that generate this thing. on a lighter note, julie, i enjoyed your statement when you the government taxes the cadillac tax to discourage wasteful spending. i don't think they would be qualified to discourage wasteful spending. host: ok. any commentary? he is talking a lot about how to raise our set. again it is based a lot on the experience of the groups. they look at the employer, they look at the demographics of their workforce, and rates are set in various different ways. host: and from green bay wisconsin, sandy, good morning. caller: good morning. julie talked earlier about the plans discourage use of health care by people on cadillac plans. has anything been done about people who are on public assistance, people who essentially pay nothing? what efforts are made or have

been made to discourage their youth can -- usage of the health care system and that wasteful spending? guest: we are looking at job-based spending here. many employer plans, for co-pay, have this large for using emergency room's. that is what way to discourage folks from using emergency room's when they don't need to. there is some movement in the public sector as well to discourage people from using high cost care. that is one thing they're looking at going forward, what are the ways we can reduce bending and healthcare.gov the reasons we are looking at these very expensive benefit plans as the thought that people overuse health care if they are fully covered. that is why this particular cadillac tax, looking at job-based insurance, is looking at these more expensive plants. these plants are always more expensive because they have a lot of bells and whistles. becauseir marks pensive perhaps the workforce they are

covering is older and sicker, or perhaps it is a high risk occupation. her are some exceptions, there are some adjustments for that. if you have a lot of over 55 retirees there is a little bit of adjustment for this cadillac tax rate if you have a high risk profession, there is an adjustment for these employers. that is the kind of thing that might be looked at going forward if congress does attempt to make some tweaks or changes to this particular tax. host: next up we go to joe in annapolis, also buys private insurance. good morning. caller: good morning. thanks for this program. program thatother c-span had on the affordable care act, and the comments were of two flavors. some people called in and said it was the greatest thing in the world. they were able to quit their they got insurance for 80 bucks a month and it was wonderful. other people came in and said they did not like paying for other people's insurance. i am one of those people. not only do we have to pay for other people's insurance, there

is another tax that is little spoken of and perhaps little-known. it is a tax that affects people in certain tax categories on their capital gains. happen,what is going to is that the taxes are going to become so onerous that it is not going to be worth it. and i am not sure if the kaiser foundation is left-wing or right wing, maybe your guest will comment on that, that it seems to me that president obama and the have enacted this legislation are basically punishing the employer and employee combination that has calld to have what they wasteful spending, but which is really health care. here is the contrast. somebody wants a lot of health care and they want to pay for it with their own labor, and obama is punishing that, all the while taking money from the present

and giving it to people who don't or can't work and to illegal immigrants. there is a study, i hope your guest will,, it said the obama administration was not even checking the citizenship status of applicants for obamacare on the website. this type ofa said insurance would not go to illegal immigrants, but it is in fact going to illegal immigrant. i hope your guest will adjust that issue. guest: he made a lot of points there. first of all, i work for a news organization so we are neither left nor right wing. secondly, citizenship status is checked when people are signing up to get subsidies under the health care law. you have to be a citizen, for the most part. money does not go to undocumented immigrants. he does make a point though. there are winners and losers with this law. the winners generally tended to be folks who under the old

system could not get coverage for one reason or another, or were lower income and cannot afford it. they be they had a health condition and could not get the coverage. there are now covered. they're getting subsidies. about 80% of people who are purchasing coverage are getting some kind of government help, some kind of subsidy to help them purchase. they are happier. the folks were less happy our folks, perhaps like joe, who purchase insurance and maybe have seen an increase in their rates because the insurers are now covering more people who were not covered before, perhaps a higher cost. so folks who before had a low-cost plan because they had a really good adaptable or they were younger and healthier, they have seen their rates go up. there are winners and losers. we are going to keep hearing about that. we are going to keep hearing about these kind of problems. host: politico had an article about the political fallout from this looming cadillac tax, the problem -- the headline says

cadillac tax could wreck popular medical accounts. they say that tax alone could dramatically alter the political equation surrounding obamacare, eventually blindsiding the class voters who may be only vaguely aware of the cadillac tax which won't take effect until 2018. they write already it has become democratic the presidential primaries with senator bernie sanders vowing to jump attacks the tax and hillary clinton saying she is open to changes. republicans meanwhile invoke the tax is one of the many reasons to repeal the entire afford will care act. a nevada senator says that obamacare continues to overpromise and under deliver. he is working on legislation to address the issue. this tax, he said, is devastating to over 33 million americans annually who rely on fsas and hsas. tell us a little bit about the potential to repeal. again, we have got a

couple of bills pending. there is a lot of movement and discussion about hey, we've got to repeal the cadillac tax rate but again, it runs up against a couple of factors. take on anyngress of these things? publicans want to repeal the entire law. if they just pull out one piece of it what will happen to that momentum? as it what we are hearing though, you're starting to hear some proposals from the candidates about repealing and replacing. repealing is a little bit of an easier message, that replacing is a nuanced message. both senator walker and senator rubio have introduced proposals that are replacement proposals. walker has produced more details, i will probably tell a little bit more about walker's proposal, but both replaced health care law with tax credits to purchase health insurance. they allow people to buy insurance across state lines, increased the amounts people could put in health savings

accounts. those are some similarities. both are concerned that there are too many regulations and too many rules, and too much structure in the affordable care act. they would remove some of the rules governing insurance now. but as far as buying coverage, walker's plan would give these tax credits so people could buy their own coverage. but unlike the current law which is based on income, his would be based on age. it would be a flat amount. children would get $900. older adults would get up to $3000, with a tax credit to help them by insurance. again, based on age, not income. so a self-employed millionaire would get the same amount as someone who is a part-time clerk. they would use that to then purchase coverage. those amounts are less than what insurance costs. it would be another way to get people to buy their own insurance from coverage. they have rolled out a lot of these plans. host: what is the average subsidy under the affordable

care act? guest: it is around $3100 year, maybe more. fran who is on the affordable care act, she is in jacksonville, florida. caller: good morning. i would like to say that there are pros and cons to everything, and that includes the affordable care act. i went five years without insurance after i was displaced from my job and could not afford it. i had a before -- pre-existing condition, i'm diabetic, but i paid out-of-pocket to see my doctor. i had to pay for my medication and mammograms and all. then last year i enrolled in the affordable care act, my coverage and started on march 1, and then in may i was diagnosed with breast cancer. i guess you know the affordable care act saved my life. subsidy, and28

then i paid like $329 of my own. it was a good plan. $1300 deductible. wanted to of course i keep that, but i got a memo that that plan has been retired and they showed me what my options were. there weren't many options. if you're in florida, because you know our governor he is not into the affordable care act, i stayed with florida plan. at only plan that suited me was the platinum plan. i had to go from a gold to a platinum. $529it is costing me instead of $329 that i was paying last year, but you know, i had to take it because i need -- well, and i

fortunately, in january i will be 65 so i will transition into medicare. i had to bite the bullet. i had to sacrifice. i think that $529 a month. the real problem to me with the affordable care act is the cost of the insurance itself. regardless of whether you are getting care or not, the insurance company is getting their money. the money they are getting is the money that i would have paid with my -- the company i was displaced with. $897 insurance was like ,or me just to be in their plan which is something i definitely could not have paid. that is still the cost of the insurance now, it is just a of the subsidy of the

$328, taking some of that off of me so that i can week by -- squeak by and pay for insurance. something needs to be done about the actual cost of insurance. host: thank you for sharing your story. guest: fran hits it right on the head. that is one of the biggest challenges facing this law and employer coverage going forward, controlling costs. is getting more and more expensive. costs are going up. the lake fran are facing and increasediums deductibles. she did the right thing. she shopped around. she got subsidies -- coverage. folks who get subsidies are still expected to pay between of theiro and 9% income towards the cost of covered and it is very expensive. next up from tacoma washington, he is also in the affordable care act.

caller: thank you for taking my call. the previous caller pointed out exactly what is wrong with our health care here in america, the insurance companies. and also the states that did not make the affordable care act a part of their solution to health care. those governors who resisted buying into the system is causing havoc for those people. similar to fran with pre-existing conditions, because the insurance companies are playing games where, as she she had a plan that letter needs, but now those plans are not available in those states. i think the affordable care act is doing a great job. it is keeping all of these people that are not in any type

of health care from going to the most expensive health care, the emergency room. at least you can go to a doctor using an insurance plan. fran pointedlly, out the real problem with health care in america. host: thank you. since obamacare picked and, -- kicks in, what is the total number of enrolled? guest: about 10 or 11 million people signed up this year to buy their own coverage. just yesterday the cdc came out with new numbers on the uninsured. that rate has dropped. it is down to 9.2% in the first quarter of this year. that is down from 11% last year and down from 16% right when the health law began. so we see the uninsured numbers drop off. he made a couple of points. one of them is that the law does

insurance -- companies from ejecting individuals with pre-existing conditions. host: but she did have to raise up to a platinum plan? guest: she did. we don't know exactly the reasons for that. 82 doctors were on that plan. don't know exactly. she may have been able to stick with their plant but did not like some of the changes. nonetheless, she could switch to another plan whereas before the health care plan -- health care law she might have difficulty switching plant at all. and he also mentioned the role of the governors in the state legislators. he is talking about medicare there. the health-care law expanded medicaid which is the federal state program for low income folks to more people, basically to childless adults in most states. but the supreme court ruling in the states the option as to whether they wanted to enroll.

we have 29 states and the district of columbia that have extended medicaid. to, ite still not able states that they have not expanded, and that is what he was talking about. host: this is front page of the boston globe this morning. aalth care costs set -- setback in massachusetts. write that they drove up prices in massachusetts 4.8% a couple more calls here. henderson, kentucky, good morning to bob. caller: good morning. thanks for taking my call. first of all, i am for everyone having insurance regardless of whether it is a national plan or what it is. i am for everyone having insurance. ism 71 years old, my wife 57. we are on medicare and medicaid

advantage. these insurance companies are not always truthful. 65, she which he turned started calling around because we were paying i've hundred 75 a month for her insurance. every insurance company would give you a different price on the medicare advantage. finally she got one lady that was truthful with her, and the lowest she had got was like 270's something dollars a month with medicare advantage. this lady had a for $28 a month. i could not believe that. to get aecting her deal to next month for an enormous amount. but it works for her, and then the following year i got on it. right now we are paying $77 a month.

we pay co-pays for about everything we do. you go to the emergency room, that is a $65 co-pay. you get the procedure done, there is a co-pay on it. but you know, that is better than having to pay an enormous amount each month. these insurance companies, they are not truthful. they are always out to get you. you have got to hope and pray that you find an honest agent. is that the type of plan they have typically available across the country? guest: it is available across the country. when you sign-up there is generally a network of doctors and hospitals that you can go to, unlike conventional medicare. there is a network, you stay within the network. you pay as you go, whereas with .edicare you may

a lot of health care is local. negotiating with the hospitals and doctors is local. these are based on some of the locally or answers. bob's wife on the planet with $77 a month. here is job in franklin, georgia. good morning. caller: good morning. love the show. look here. you have tounder -- read the plan to understand what is in the plan before you vote on the plan. host: something to that effect. me about thisills plan, like the gentleman from maryland, i am 61 years old. off,y life i worked my but never have been unemployed one day. i'm working for people who haven't worked, our go to work, age never get to work.

i live in georgia, i can go to alabama and by my insurance. the politicians are in bed with each other. that is the bottom line. i will take your comments. thank you for your time. host: thank you. any final comments? guest: he mentioned going across the state to buy insurance, that is a common comments. i think we are going to hear more about this coming up as well. it is a perennial idea. the idea is that you might get more choice for insurers in a bunch of different states, and maybe you could find a lower price lan and buy it there. the difficulty is, let's say you live in new york and you want to buy a plan in alabama. how is that alabama insurer going to create a network of doctors in new york? that is a really big challenge. i think we will hear more from folks like that. is seniore appleby

correspondent for "kaiser health newsone we have gotten to know

well both professionally and personally. he is an extra in her individual who has managed to bring together wonderful events such as this one. please join me in welcoming mr. says no. >> thank you for that lovely introduction and for everything that you have done for the george washington university. [applause]. welcome to the jack martin auditorium at george washington university and the most important city of the world. we are going to hear some remarkable conversations about some truly remarkable thing this evening was truly remarkable people. this is our first event of the year and we are kicking

it off in style with an absolutely sold-out house which i am delighted to see. how many students are in the writing? i am more delighted to see. and with c-span which i'm even more delighted to see. so i am very delighted here this evening. we are presenting this program this morning in true collaborative spirit, with them college democrats, and gw college republicans. >> okay the school of media and public affairs as we have mentioned is a very dynamic place. we have a masters in strategic

here please raise your hand. i will call you out a moment. and we have a number of faculty. so thank you very much for being here all of you. we'll be celebrating this entire year with a series of special events and other things. highlighting the compliments of our highlighting, enriching the student experience and looking to the future. as we grow the next generation of leaders, in journalism, and

politics politics and in political communication and advocacy. as part of our silver anniversary we'll be having events, next week will be hosting one that will be quite fascinating which revolves around marriage equality and how those who set the agenda around marriage equality changed the national conversation in what really is a remarkable period of time. we'll have registration for that so please keep your eyes open for that information it will pop up on our website in the next few days. another exciting program we are launching to help students as part of our silver anniversary, we are announcing the career access network. this is going to do a number number of things for students, it will provide experience and learning for students it will provide funding for internships. as you know it's part of your

college experience the internship is so important to your college. secondly we will use the initiative to encourage networking events. finally we'll establish a mentoring program between our engaged alumni and our students. we set a goal of $250,000 to launch this, it is part of our overall campaign. this is what we are building for the future and we are very excited about it. if anyone wants to help us do this, we are interested in talking to you so find me or anybody here and we'll be delighted to have that conversation. i want to recognize a few people very briefly. our national council members the chair of the national council is here, as the premier advisory board.

so what we're highlighting here this evening to our extended community is the remarkable things they have done, incredible contributions they have made, and the wonderful thought and substance they bring to us into our students, our, our faculty and to this university through their lives. so i will now introduce the panel. all of whom are related to the school of media and public affairs. i i will call them out one at a time, if you know them you can applaud, if you don't know them you can applaud. paul wilson, [applause].

he participate at various levels in six presidential campaigns. any particular campaign? i think republican. next is cornell [applause]. you can see him on cnn and other television networks, he is is a premier strategist and national progressive politics which i take to mean is a democrat. >> depends on the day. >> he previously served. next, our school immediate and media affairs, frank.

frank is commission and cochair on congressional debates. in the 1980s he served as chairman of the republican party for six years. that's when i first met franklyn we are both teenagers, i was covering ronald reagan and he was explaining them. next, amy walters, national editor of the cook political report. [applause]. she provide analysis of issues, trends, events that shaped the political environment. she writes a column and is on nbc's meet the press. one other person who is on the air right now so she will join us later, i hope if if they don't go too long and that is a former fellow, marla.

you may have seen her on fox that's where she is right now. she brings incredible insight to what she does. i hope she will bring some here if they can get her up there. and now, our moderator moderator for this evening, was student at george washington university, amazing student of american politics and has become a great teacher of american politics, his moderator of meet the press, his political director of nbc news, he is the newest member of our national council. please give a warm welcome to chuck todd. [applause]. >> why he takes his seat i want to recognize others and think those to help put put the

evening together. we will turn over to talk to you. [applause]. >> , a freshman are in the building? that is fantastic. twenty-five years ago was obviously the founding of the school. 255 years ago was when i step foot on this campus, by the way this was a parking lot, next-door was the coolest thing i ever discovered which was tower records. we we still had to buy our records, all my student that belong to whoever the poor person who bankrupted tower records back in the day. i came here because i was hoping to experience, i hope to fulfill, i was hoping to have washington experience it. i think tw w does it better than any other school in the city, it is only school in the heart of the city, you feel it, the

political community and away you don't get at that school that is not on the metro in a river down by the street. nor the school that is near ours offices. there is nothing like gw. [applause]. all of my first jobs came just from being right here. let's get started with this crazy race. paul i will start with you. it's your party, what the hell is going on?

i'm sure you get this call all the time from friends and failing members and say what is going on. donald trump, what the hell is going on? >> it is changing, we used to had those a goal post and all the candidates would kick the ball to the goalposts, there are not in the goalpost anymore. whoever thought you could insult people, you insult people, you could switch positions, you could be a flip-flop or, and you could do anything you wanted to and you would rise in the pulse. we see donald trump breaking all the rules and so the question for the new freshman is why? how can you get away from that. we welcome you here by the way. the answer as to why you can wreck the roles is, he is doing something different. we call it agenda setting. he is telling the public how to make the decision about the presidency. he is not saying experience or anything like that, he he is saying make it on ideal maker. make it on someone who can negotiate better for this country. he is changing how we view the presidency. historically, when you change how i vote or group looks at the

candidates, it can change the election outcome. it doesn't look like it scientific but it works the same way. he is changing the agenda of how we pick a president. will he he make it? we don't know. he is in the game pretty strong. >> you are one of those gentlemen republican of the 80s, is this your republican party? what you you say when people ask you that? >> well i always say must be nonpartisan. some of the freshmen who are here, i had an opportunity to speak to on sunday night. when you say what the hell is going on? i think no one has done a better job of trying to describe what has been going on both political

parties, not just in the republican party primary, and i was peggy noonan in her article in the "washington journal" a few weeks ago. she said what has washington, the establishment given us over the last 20 years question she picked up candles, financial scandals, two on two on one rulers, and economic collapse, a tepid recovery, not even pretending anymore to control our own borders. a bunch of things that have frustrated so many americans, republicans, democrats, it independence that they are voting, at least regards to polling is an indication of their frustration of in-your-face democrats, republicans, voters. that's why you see people as

strong as they are. the american people are unsatisfied with the whole system. i don't think it's just that republican party i think it's also the democratic party. they have have lost trust in corporations, banks, it's an unhappy time in our country. i think this is what we are seeing a reflection of. of. how long this will continue israel question. host: paul you are an early contender with barack obama. it said one of the reasons obama got elected was a public was frustrated with washington want to shake things up. it's why he met first election, he got a lot of independent dents and republicans on the side. as side. is it just ten years of frustration is there and it's now born out even more so? >> i think being frustrated with washington is not anything new. you could make the argument that

there are frustration is certainly high. i meant to go a slightly different direction. and go a little further than paul. if you look at the american culture right now, what's meeting our culture right now? our culture is being eaten by reality television meatballs. those people who are driving that reality television are the same people who are making the kardashians rich beyond their belief. those are not separate americans, they are used. you. they are the american voters too. i actually love some of the

political student standpoint what donald trump is doing. he is doing something amazing. he is taking all these tactics, that have worked very well for him in reality television. guess guess what, they are also working really well in politics. one of the interesting things i've seen in the poll, from the iowa caucus couriers, only 41% of the caucus goers want a candidate with specific on the policy. so let's not be mistaken about what is going on in america are both culturally and how it is now gone on in our policies. i heard donald trump is fading, he's not going to last, and after this day in this day he will drop. he just keeps going up in the

polls. think about how this is going to impact elections, not just this year but years to come. if this is the trajectory now, i can tell you it's a horrible project to rebut a decade ago are parents, if this is the project area politics and donald trunk is brilliant and social media, his driving most of the conversations. think about your tools and the skills you will need to win in these campaigns. and to win and communicate and broadcast as well. i think he is changing the way politics are playing. >> the irony is he never senses on tweets. he has people to do this, they're huge.

i want you to pour the cold water on this. here we are september 2, september 2, 1991 same time,. i think that's really funny the four of you. september 1991 bill clinton hadn't even announced yet, september 1995 of 95 lamar alexander was the flavor at that moment, in 1999 at nine at this point time we're talking about steve forbes and all the money he was bringing to the race. 2003 a was three was howard dean, you get my point. are we over analyzing trump and sanders? >> let me start with trump and then i'll go to sanders. for trump there is something he

is doing, i agree with what people are saying, he it's different than what we have seen before. it's not that he's just able to set the agenda by playing by a different set up rule, it is fascinating to watch the candidates around him. it's like watching kids on the playground when one kid comes in and starts doing something differently and winning whatever game it is, kickball, whatever, all the kids who had been playing for a long time say, it's not fair. you're not playing by the rules. we had rules and you not play by them. >> that was july. >> i think jeb bush that that in july. >> so he has been a master of that, there's there's also things i've never seen before. i see the reason why cabinets are on the show is we have a feeling we can't go any further, i just don't remember, maybe you do, a time, a time when a candidate with 100% name recognition has a 75%

disapproval rating among people in his own party, where 66% of people in his own party set i will not party set i will not ever vote for you. you think okay he's pretty much done. everybody meets him adult like him, a few months later in iowa, those numbers literally flip. they go from 23, 60 said to total opposite. that's not supposed to happen. there is something unique about him. the question in my mind is how long does this last? is this something where it's been fun, interesting to watch it's been a group reality show for the summer but at the end of the day, voters are going to learn more about donald trump. he has been a master at being anything anybody wants him to be. if you look at his base of

support it's a very broad. broad. it's not just angry tea party people it's a mix of people. so he has done incredibly well. so that becomes a real question. can this hold on? there has not been 1 dollar spent yet in this race. there's been a little money here and there, up in new hampshire and iowa, but there is 200 to $400 million to sitting out there waiting to be engaged. has he changed the game so much that the rules were used to playing by, the 32nd ads, the opposition research, are they going to work? or that he has been pervious to this because he hasn't changed so much in.

very quickly about sanders, agree he's making some moves based on some anger out there he's tapping into. the republican base and democratic base are just really night and day. the republican base is incredibly divided, they are upset with what they see with their own party, they are divided on issues, there divided on policy, there's no cause he's in there. on the democratic side, they're united on all of the major issues, foreign policy is still a little bit of a place where they will divide. but not much else. despite all of the attention to hillary clinton, it remains in the high 80s. she does better among liberal democrats across the board than bernie sanders. >> every republican wishes they had hillary clinton in their primary.