agree he's making some moves based on some anger out there he's tapping into. the republican base and democratic base are just really night and day. the republican base is incredibly divided, they are upset with what they see with their own party, they are divided on issues, there divided on policy, there's no cause he's in there. on the democratic side, they're united on all of the major issues, foreign policy is still a little bit of a place where they will divide. but not much else. despite all of the attention to hillary clinton, it remains in the high 80s. she does better among liberal democrats across the board than bernie sanders. >> every republican wishes they had hillary clinton in their primary.

>> were dividing a vote among 17 candidates. so there's a reason's it spread out. it's different when you have two candidates and that's what the democrats have right now. >> from lincoln chafee, that's why i couldn't remember his name, used to be republican. >> there should be an opening there for anti- hillary because she is. >> it let me move to the media thing. >> hit hillary's a strong candidate but i cringe a little bit when when the i've had the same thing in 2007.

this blackeye with a muslim name came out nowhere cup fire. if i was hillary, that i'm not working for her this summer, i would be very anxious about this and i think they are, because the democratic primary voters are restless. you know this, how often is it that the person who is the established front runner for the democratic primary and up being the nominee? it doesn't happen very often. democrats don't like. >> al gore did become the nominee, al. >> i would say

that fight. i think it would help energize the base, i love the primary sample site. >> should we sign you up right now is joe biden's poster? >> ..

>> he is very experienced in reality shows and he comes up with the -- not the speech, it is usually one sentence on a particular subject and it gets to something the american people are concerned about. he knows how to do it. the media love it.

they have to, you know, you are in the business of the 24 hours a day, 365 days has to be filled with msomething, i watched him o something and he was funny. he cuts through like no body. i think it a combination of both. honing how long it last i don't know. >> i think he's treating media like a salt shaker and empties you out and shakes you all over the place. he does it and it works. we have never seen it before so there is that novelity thing. >> we spent most of the time talking about trump. >> we get to really get into trump and his past policies or who he is or what he has done. >> he speaks on one thing not necessarily a republican issue

which is trade. that is the one thing he has been consistent on. it is the one consistent thing. >> that doesn't -- >> that is not a republican party issue. >> he breaks so many rules. if you remember there was an ad that john kerry, we had him on a sailboat and he would go back and forth ice surfing. i brought it but we can't play it. it showed how many times he flip flopped. it is a common attack, always works and it doesn't now. >> we have to go back it is not working among republican primary voters but it is working among not the flip-flopping ad but what he has done in terms of the issues he has brought up and the controversial issues he loves to sit in.

and latino voters and female voters are a big problem. >> you know the war chest that the major candidates in both parties have we haven't started laying that out. they haven't gone with that yet. i think they will focus -- what is on top. >> let's talk about the ma manipulation of a new meaning. ronald reagan was totally under the radar in the late '70s doing commentaries. ross perot showed the idea you can campaign on television. he was the first to pull it off being at 35% in the polls low and behold. you can argue obama was the first one to understand the

power of social media 1.50. and other candidates learned from it at the time. you look in 1992, bill clinton starting doing arseno after he saw as it worked for perot. my question is when are the other candidates going -- is there something to learn from trump's success? i think there is but paul? >> they are trying. they are attacking him with great regularity. if they don't play on his turf they are being ignored. i don't think it will cut him down. >> you talked about how effective him he is on social media. i look at him as on the record all of there time. john mccain on steroids. the beauty of trump and i would say to the clinton people, anybody call and complain, he is

on the record loall of the time. shouldn't other politicians learn from this? >> i do but it goes back to my initial point of it is the kardashian's tactic now which does say there is no publicity that is bad publicity. kim kardashian does these outrageous things on the cover of the magazines. >> making a sex type? >> but you see the ted cruz's and the scott walker's and they are beginning to sort of align with others and go further out there on some of these issues. you have all of these republicans talking about building a big wall. okay. great. but they are following the line.

there is something to be said and i think this generation is going to be working. there is something going on and again that pop culture america that is in love with reality television those tactics are working in politics. i don't think you can ignore and you will have to master it. i think if you will be successful you will master what trump is doing. i just think you are going to. >> i don't think -- the secret to donald is annoying. he is always flamboyant. what you see now is what i would say with donald in business and so forth. he has the personality. i don't know i haven't talked to him since he started running for president of i will run for president, if i don't make it i will have a new reality show. i am not sure he gets up in the morning saying i want to be

pre president of the united states. the other candidates, both parties, they really want to be president. maybe donald is looking at the numbers and saying maybe i can be president and you know take it further but i think that is the difference. he has the personality if he goes up the to microphone he is good. >> this is where campaigns truing l -- struggleal because you have to understand strengths and wea weakness. some are great on camera and some are terrible on camera and you have other people talk for them. not everybody can do that and people that don't do it well it is obvious when they fall on their face. ultimately, though, i think the issue that frank brought up is it is about authenticity.

bernie sanders has that gray hair and he is surrounded by 20-something and you would think he would have a older audience given his age cohuert. but he is the real deal. >> i talked to people that are trump supporters. some are there to send the collective middle finger to washington. they know what he is and they don't care. he is what frank said he is flamboyant. let's try to play out the scenario. five months until caucus day. i am not asking you to say who is going dto be the nominee and we will open it up to you. one microphone here and one in

the center. line up and we will do rapid fire and i am hoping everybody has a question. i will do little questions for everybody here before we go to you guys. paul, who are the plausible nominees now most likely that will be the most likely republican nominees and how do you see it shake out? does trump make it to march 1st? >> i think he does and i think i can prove it. i brought the statistics from four years ago and i inserted trump's number and just real quick you can see his 25 pkt % w hampshire, iowa and florida puts him in the game right away that is maybe an unfair way to look at it but he is in the game with delegates and momentum. but you have other great

candidates. you have kasich, bush with a ton of money, carly who is exciting people. it is not over by any means. >> those are your plausible pne nominees? >> i think with carly being the outlier of that group but i think you have to watch kasich and jeb bush because he has a ton of dough but he hasn't been able to make it work. >> anyone you want to add to the list? >> this is the way, in my position, i think what you will see is i think donald will be there, i agree with you on that. but i think what is going to affect it more than anything else is who starts falling off on the bottom. when the money is not there the rumors are governor perry and you will start loosing people at the bottom. the interesting thing to watch

is where that support is going to go. but with regard to march 1, i agree and i think donald will be there. >> let me ask you this question and then we will open it up. will we have a nominee by the time of the cleveland convention? paul on the republican side? >> by the time we get to the convention, it is hypothetically possible. >> 10%? 20%? what do you think? >> something where the nominee doesn't have enough delegates. >> i think you could get that way. the middle part of the republican process doesn't have winner take all. that means if i get 30% of the vote i get 30% of the delegates. multiple people can win if there is enough of that it can play out. a lot of statistical pundant

don't thing it will play out. >> i was at the 1971976 convent where we had that. i should say unfortunately butch biker passed away and he was the then governor reagan and if he won the nomination he would have been the vice president but i don't think we know. i think we will have a nominee. -- i think we will know. >> cornel, different question on the democratic side. give me the size of the political earthquake if hillary clinton loses iowa or new hampshire to bernie sanders? they are trying to say they can lose iowa or new hampshire and be okay but i don't know if they understand the earthquake that would cause if that happens.

>> if she were to lose iowa and new hampshire it certainly puts a lot of wind behind sanders but this is problematic. iowa and new hampshire are really big deals and obama's win in 2008 primary season was a big go when he won iowa and lost in new hampshire. but this is bernie's problem and they get this. after you get passed the first couple of states, and this is what obama put the nomination away, most people don't think about it but this is when he put the nomination away. in south carolina, for a while we were competing with hillary for minority vote big time and for a while she was ahead. it it wasn't iowa that was huge saying he won iowa so black

people were willing to vote for him. that is bullshit. white people in iowa said he was okay so they voted. he worked very hard. when south carolina happened, we broke down the gates and it was flood gates. and hillary was competing anymore. what happens when you cannot compete with the african-american votes? you cannot win alabama, louisiana, georgia, virginia. so you go to the heart of the south, the bible belt of the south, and where we ran the clock and truth of the matter is when we ran the clock through the south the nomination was over. >> she could not get you. >> i guess going back to -- dwht is the level of panic if she

loses one of the two? does sanders get an opening? >> i am going to get in so much trouble but i think if she loses in new hampshire and iowa, which i don't think she will do, i think you will see a strong case of biden to get in the race. >> that is what will happen? >> can't win the general so -- >> i think you will have people pushing biden in the race. >> amy, you get to do both. tell me how does this play itself out and does it end in cleveland or not? >> i would put rubio in that category. he is under the radar but well liked among a broad coalition of republican voters. his getting out there and presenting himself and i think unlike many of the other

candidates when he is a very good retail and strong on camera and natural candidate. so i think i would add to that. for as much as we love a brokered convention, a title college, those things never happen, but we can also hope. but we will see. and what was the other thing? the iowa and new hampshire? i like that theory about biden coming in. that sounds like a lot of fun. but i agree. if you look at the fcc primaries again, these are certain states, where i would be concerned if i was a hillary campaign is when you start to see numbers among african-americans and latinos and hillary start to drop. that is when there is problems. loosing white, liberal men is not as much of a problem as loosing -- they are all in new

hampshire is -- and iowa. >> i would three throw in ted cruz and by stock in him winning in iowa right now. >> i would by stock in kasich right now. >> let's go to questions. tell us where you are from originally. >> i am andrew from cape cod, massachusetts and i want to thank you for being with us tonight. it makes the first week of class exciting. >> excellent. >> you guys are stuck with monday, wednesday, friday 8 a.m. classes, right? >> we are looking down the road and outlying how everything is going to come together and we have alluded to the war chest.

i just want to ask do we think the war chest is going to be as affective as it has been to a candidate like donald trump whose personality seems to be so big that it could deflect the money to whoever is dishing it out and how is that going to change the playing field for someone trying to rise to the top like marco rubio. >> money matters a lot and becomes less affective in a multi candidate race. bush is going after trump on tv and they try to use money to destroy kasich and rubio. i am of the theory money matters less today than it did four years ago. where were you on this? >> the one new point in this campaign is the super pacs that each candidate has a big stash of money they cannot control and

symboll somebody else is spending it on their behalf. that is the new wild card. it isn't the candidate. but the candidate's friend running this. >> it is aan amazing thing goin on. once upon a time in this country, republican or democrat, as a campaign, you want to control the message. we were very, very disciplined about that in the obama campaign. we didn't want anyone out there defining our message and telling our story. truth of the matter now is you will have people not connect today the campaign not connected to the campaign defining a large loss. and you have really and again i am going in on this not as a democrat but an american. you have millionaires out there

in the desert and then they could define terms of the debate in a way that ordinary people don't. i am a consultant. i benefit from lots of money being in the process. but if i think as a regular american you benefit from all of this money. >> just a little bit. it depends where the money is being spent. when i was head of the party, and involved in the reagan races, the party we call the wla blocking and tackling is going out and identifying voters and registering them to vote and get them to the polls. president obama used this to do it. the social media. if that money that is out there with the super pacs, i agree, there is only so much you can do on television today. most people your age don't even watch tv anymore skwhand when yo

it is on your computer or ipad or other vehicle. if that money is being used for blocking and tackling and identifying it be very effective. >> is it problematic that as a party man, is it probematic that so much of the functions that once upon a time the parties did -- >> i said for a long time there were pieces of legislation because of it destroyed realistically the two broadest base organizations in the country, republican and democratic party, where you had a left, right and center in both parties. and the limitations to being able to spend hard money on things destroyed and changed the make up of the parties. >> let me guide this. john mccain and john kerry did

something in '04 and 08 and were the candidates who won without spending the most money. romney outspent mccain and dean outspent kerry. how likely to see it this time? >> the super pacs have much more money than the candidates. you look at the time in new hampshire and iowa 70% is super pacs. the one thing i will say about super pacs to add on is beyond the fact they are controlling a message outside of the campaign but they cannot control the candidate. you can have all of the money in the world but if your candidate is not good it don't matter how much money you have. scott walker is a good example of this. if you are the scott walker super pac you are watching a candidate who is having a little trouble. there is not a darn thing the super pac can do to make up for

that deficit. >> i promise we will talk take five minutes for the next question. >> i am from pittsburgh, pennsylvania. i am reading the making of a president 1968 and what is shocking is how 1968 seems to look like today. race riots in the street, ongoing war on terror which like vietnam doesn't seem to be ending, a country with a lot of prosperity but no mobility for l lower income americans and we see establishment politics which is the laughing stock of the nation. so aside from the horse race, what is the outcome of 2016? >> i am with you on this. donald trump is george wallace in that he is tapping into

nativism. >> frank, going to you. >> people came up to me and asked the question and i looked at bernie sanders very much like mccarthy and remember he lost new hampshire. president johnson won new hampshire but the affect of running the race and the debate got johnson to step down saying he will not run for re-election. i think the question is really smart. that is what i am talking about, look at the last 20 years, what have the people in washington and the political parties given the american people? not very much. >> i want to make one point about this because i asked that question of peter heart who was renowned pollster who does the washington journal and he says '68 was about anger. this is much more about anxiety and there is a difference.

when you are angry, there is definitely a lot of anger in there. but the overall impression he is getting, and i see this, too, and i am curious what you are seeing, is a sense of frustration but what we want is someone to delay the fear rather than build up the fear? [applause] >> address the social unrest. >> by the way, i wasn't alive in '68 just for reference. the social unrest is really interesting because the black lives matter -- let's take the black lives matter which i think is something the progressives have to take seriously as well

as republicans because you have a co-hort of social media savvy, smart young people who are using that social media vehicle in a way that i would not imagine ten years ago because it is using it as a vehicle for the new civil rights movement and for organizing. and they are saying, you know, all lives matter but you will say black lives matter because we will not have our issues washed away. if you can talk about gender specific issues and hispanic issues and gay and lesbian issues then damn it you are going to talk about african-american issues. and when president obama steps off page, there is a narrative this is going to bubble up and flow in ways that have been held

back because obama has been on that stage. and it is going to be really interesting. they are talking about their independence. and it will be interesting -- by the way, obama won two majority elections. you have to go a long ways to find a democrat who won back-to-back majority elections. that part of his coalition is an important part of the coalition for progressives but they are incrose cre-- increasingly independently and i think democrats will struggle with the revolte against minority voters and if bernie sanders starts to answer it better than hillary there is your crack. >> the question is how much is this like '68 and interesting comparison saying it is the anger and anxiety and all of that. >> it is an interesting comparison. i think we are at a populus

moment in american politics. you had tremendous number of american young men dying in a foreign war scheie donand we do that. but i think it is volatile and unpredictable and why we have donald trump and to a lesser extent bernie sanders. you know he wants to get rid of the hedge fund guys and the tax lop lo loop hole but he is about building a fence. and that is about the nativism and economic population is combined against the bang of wall street. whatever it is. they also have those two things. and i think one of the questions for me is just like out of '68,

made permanent changes in american politics what is going to be this populus' legacy of trump or will jeb bush get up on his behind legs and really change the nature of the party? i think that is unlikely. >> let's go to next and i proplast it will be more lightning round. >> i am jack from chicago. my question is is there a

specific policy issue that will affect the election? >> policy? that is nuts. are you joking? let's go to the practicing on this. >> the right to life issue is a motivator. we see tax policy being talked about. but it is more personality now. >> to make this quick i agree. >> what will be the most debated issue in the fall campaign? >> middle class income. and that is a real issue and really important. >> immigration. i don't know it it will get in the fall but that is a real

concern. >> hi, i am anna, i had a question going back to where you started from, donald trump said something in the public debate that got caught off which was it is a broken system. he said that in response to show he dealt with bankruptcy in his own company. he said it is not abuse and said i useed the law to my own advantage and it is a broken system. he is the only republican and the only candidate besides sanders to mention the idea of a breck n system. is the unwillingness or inability of the republican party candidate to mimic trump's tactics in ability to understand social media campaigning or is it more so an unwillingness to abuse the system and in doing so acknowledge it as broken?

>> you know, that is a fantastic question. if you look at the field, on paper they all look like they are people running against the system, right? mark rubio, ted cruz, rand paul, they ran against the establishment and were going to do it differently. ted cruz was going to take it to washington and talks about doing that currently. you have governors that are not part of washington, right? that was the message. scott walker. everybody says i cannot do this but you can do it here. the system is broken. you don't have people who are standing up there saying yay status quo, yay establishment and i cannot wait do that and work within the system. they all ran saying the system is broken and that is why i ran a different kind of campaign. >> i meant the familiar financing system. >> oh, oh. >> you mean wall street?

>> a bit of bight -- both but mostly campaign finance. >> you hear druchonald trump ta about the corruptiveness of donations. if you go go to a sanders rally it is a huge part of his speech. >> the thing that is so interesting about donald trump is no body could have created in him in their worst nightmare of republican candidates. he is saying i am beholding to no one, money is corrupt, jeb bush is behold to the guys who gave him money. that is one of the other at t tributes. he doesn't take any money.

he is not going to make the campaign finance system his issue like bernie sanders is but he said america used to be great, it is now in the toilet and i am going it fix it and make it great again. >> have we had a successful candidate who didn't run against a broken washington? >> i don't remember anyone running for president that did run against washington. >> hillary clinton is running against washington and the system. >> obama broke through early on -- we talked about politics is not working. politics is broken. we tie that to hillary as part of that and based on the top of their pyramid messaging was her experience in the way we flipped it upside down. but the politics has been broken and you have to run against a broken policy. >> thank you. >> hi, i am sarah royal, and i

am from massachusetts and my question is about joe biden. if he does decide to get in the race what affect do you think he will have on the democratic side and do you think he can win? >> does anybody give joe biden the shot at winning the nomi nation? >> i do. >> make your case. >> the joe biden from eight years ago is not exactly the same joe biden. there is something to be said about his eight years standing beside obama and helping him fight the fights he has been through. i think he has gained a lot on that. i will say if in fact he can make the case that he is more u

authentical candidate there is sump hope there. she is by far the frontrunner but don't count him out. >> your poll that is in tomorrow's "washington post," but was an abc poll -- it was very interesting. it showed it builds on the poll that came out with 60% of people described one word as liar. and that showed that she is loosing support among mrn millennial and women. what you are talking about with black lives matter and i have always questioned whether or not blacks, hispanics and asians

were the key for the 2012 election whether they will turn out for hillary clinton. that is still the question. if there is a fracturing of those core voters, i am not saying it yet, just the beginning cracks. he is very well loved. there is a great deal of affection for him with the death of his son. i have done 19 presidential debates, general election debates and seven vice president debates and i will tell you is american people want like their president. and people like joe biden. >> i think he is a little low in the polls. >> i think his base is in the green room of washington.

it is so unscripted. >> that is right. >> elizabeth warren wanted to be on the ticket with him in that secret meeting. >> more about elizabeth warren than it was about joe biden >> i am marissa. we have been talking a lot about the domestic issues that are important to the campaign but my question pertains more to foreign policy. given the fact there is isis encroaching upon turkey and the recent iran deal with important in the future, which candidate do you think would have the greatest impact and be able to best handle the foreign policy issues? >> well it should be hillary clinton, the former secretary of state. but the interesting thing about foreign policy is at least until

donald trump came along foreign policy was the number one issue for republicans. it is unusual it would be at the top of the list for oo presidential election. the republicans don't have a good alternative. they say the obama foreign policy has been a disaster but they with the exception of lindsay grahm they don't have a well, thought out, clear alternative. and it is easy to say, you know, the world is on fire, obama can't fix it, but they will have to come up with a solution. i think being secretary of state counts for something. >> republicans are going to nominate someone hawkish and say whatever bush did i will do the opposite versus clinton who is more -- this will be the most

dramatic difference between the two candidates, no? >> i think on domestic policy there will be dramatic differences whether it is immigration or it could be changing through the course. hillary clinton hasn't done as many interviews as the other candidates. have you noticed that? >> we don't have a hundred percent clear issue where she is on the issues now. we know when she was as secretary of state and she said theoretically she supports the iran deal. we don't know what is going to happen with isis and syria. we know she has been hawkish in the past. so it may not be -- there may be

a way in which she is not -- she is obviously going to be divinidifrn from her republican opponent but may be further to the right than the president. >> i think there is a republican foreign policy in dealing with the issues that you have. it hasn't been fleshed out but it is peace restraint. you have peace in the world for having a strong nation who is respect respected, armed forces were nowhere where they could be. there should be a focus there. the individual issues are not fleshed out but i think that is the common core. >> let's know to the next question. >> i am kendric chang and i am from honolulu, hawaii, the same

place obama was born in. >> the republicans don't agree with you. >> what hospital? >> we are not sure you are supposed to be here. >> is hawaii a state? >> in the end the general election is decided by the electoral college, is the any chance it will expand in the future for more states to be competitive? >> i don't think so. >> do you think any new states will be added? >> not many. florida, ohio, you can go through the list and they are the pivotal ones. when are we going to see california? i don't think that will happen. >> i think we, the obama campaign, came in and quite frankly some of this was from dean but no one gives dean

credit for it -- >> dean does. >> on election night, we will not be sitting around waiting for results of one state to come in. and so i mean putting those states into play and putting money into the planning states like virginia and north carolina, you can back a couple years and we spent a lot of money. will georgia get more play? we did a couple polls in georgia. georgia is a state that is in place but it cost so much money you take away from other states. money is a problem with putting more states in place but i think you will see that the battleground -- if i am a republican, i think you have to bro broaden the battleground, if you think about loosing florida two times now. i don't know a lot of maps that get your guys to the white house, and it has guy

unfortunately, without florida. so you have to broaden the map. >> you have to add minnesota and michigan to the playing field. >> i think they would. but wouldn't you put wisconsin in the mix? >> sometimes it doesn't work to expand the map. >> the battleground changed over time. there was a time when iowa, new hampshire and nevada were not part of it. >> i would add arizona. >> i think hang health care and both presidential nominees will spend money -- hillary clinton -- in arizona. >> there wasn't a dollar spent by romney in 2012 in pennsylvania and i think that changes. >> i am from kansas. if trump runs as an independent, what steps do the gop take to

prevent that split from handing the election to the democrats? >> it is catastrophic. >> yeah. >> that is how you really feel. >> it is catastrophic if you split the party and he has the resource do is get on the ballot. it is extremely difficult to get on the ballot. we have to keep him in the party. and somebody has to beat him. >> are any of these pledges that states are asking to be on our ballot you have to pledge you will support the candidate is that legal? >> he said sure, signs the pledge and -- >> that is sorry looser laws >> what is their recourse in >> when bucannon who ran as a

republican, moved and there were sorry lawsuits. >> he could not get on the ballot in general election states. >> given the political environment why are we not seeing more independent candidates? somebody brought up '68. '68, '92, '16 feel similar scheie are not talking about others -- and we -- why? >> john anderson and ross perot and other candidates tried to make the third party work and it doesn't. it splits the vote. i think there is a great reluctance. >> you are talking about a billon to run for president. you are talking about a billion. >> that is a lot of money for a

billionaire e even. >> let's go to the next question. >> hi, i am matthew lee from florida. frank touched upon this lightly and i wanted more in depth analysis. assuming trump makes it through and he is one of the candidates where do you think the republican voters who didn't support him who will they flock to? if he doesn't make it and runs as an independent where does the average republican trump supporter go? back to the republican party or keep going and follow him? >> that is a good question and i am not sure. you see ted cruz, he is very trying to close it down, so he is hoping that if mr. donald trump doesn't succeed those votes go to him.

i don't know. i think they will split and i am not sure there is one place they will go. if he stays in the race it is down to the wire. he is going to be effective and i am not ready to declare he is not going to fizzle out down the road. he may but that is true of the other 16 and they will fizzle out. >> let's say he gets the nomination and the republicans do don't like him drift back to the nominee of the party. whether that happens this time i don't know. >> we saw it with the quote unquote bad nominees, tea party, whatever. most republicans come home. and democrats come home no matter how divisive. remember the pumas for the democrats back in in '08.

>> the question is will blacks hispanics and asians turn out in the same numbers and be as excited about hillary as they were obama and turn out out in record numbers. in florida and iowa, they were close races and it was demographic concentration using social media by the obama campaign that pulled them over the line. turnout is the big key. >> do any of you think clinton versus bush makes them create a high turn out environment?

what you see in 2010 is a 16 point turn outdifference. i don't care who your candidate is if you have 16-pooped differences in the prestincts you are lost. do you the difference between the base? 1 pooped # points. we got our tails kicked. we have to energize. look what happened in maryland, montgomery and turnout was lower than the city of balt mother.

if you cannot get a big turnout and voters don't make a bigger turnout democrats don't do well. >> you think the 2014 turnout is a predictor for 2016? >> if you have a turnout difference it is problematic. >> how are you doing? i am drew lawrence. >> two more questions. sorry about that. you and whoever is behind you it better be a good question to be the last one. so focus. >> my name is drew lawrence and i am from massachusetts and i work on social media and i tweet all of you so i will refresh my twitter. i think to me the biggest elephant in the room is that we are at an event called campaign 2016 and it is september 2nd,

2015. from what i understand the campaigns have been getting longer since president kennedy. i was wondering in your respective field this has affected the fields and what is the biggest affect on the political system in general? >> we love it. >> no, it has been no vacation. >> i think one of the attacks is that the commission on presidential debates is dealing with it right now. i think on election day 2012, 41% of the voters already voted. so the question is do we move the debates earlier? they traditionally have been in october. do we move them before people start voting online and by mail and so forth to impact? the conventions moved back. their goal was to shorten the campaigns and this is a four

year campaign. >> i would say, i think the effect is every debate in congress is now a political campaign. the biggest change in my 25 years, there used to be the odd year was the governing year, the was a governing year in washington, now we have a gov rng month, it is february of the odd month. and that is it. how facetious. >> i agree. >> if you politicize that that is why you are wondering why you can't do compromise. campaigns are aspirational so everything has to be aspirational and perfect and it good is the enemy of the perfect and that is why we see what we see on capitol hill.

>> gefb-- good evening, i am lo davis from new jersey. so my question is more for the med media, looking at what we talked about with the kardashians and the discourse is shifting from these defined ideas that people can believe in and latch on to to sort of border wall and things with twitter and social media schillings washings what is the role of social media in elections? is there an avenue for media to inform and shape the debate or is the rule indexing solely up to candidates? go

>> good question. >> i can back to donald trump. donald trump made the media -- it is funny, i hear this. we are on the way to being irrelevant or we are too relevant. i cannot figure out if we are a dying thing or have too much power. but i view it as a spread offense. and this is what trump perfected. but the whole idea of the spread offense is you just put up a five wide receivers and you will have a mismatch. stru trump is talking all of the time. gaps at 9 a.m., calls another at 9:30, your opponent is all over the place trying to tackle you on this issue and you went for the end zone on the other issues. my question is when are other candidates going to figure that out.

>> i don't know if others can. he is a media creatures. that is where he lives. i am doing this story this week about and i have been asking people about the legacy of trump and someone said today he is going at a change the way campaigns run. i don't know who is going to be the next trump-like candidate. >> kayne west. >> yes, kayne west. >> he already announced for 2020. >> but you know the twitter wars he is running with jeb bush. you could make the argument he is laying a media trap that scott walker went into and maybe it was fatal. would we have talked about a wall on the northern border if it wasn't for donald trump? i don't think so. >> cornell, you brought it up first. how about the statement that trump will change the way campaigns run. >> i think it will. you have a lot of establishment

people shaking their head and wanting this to go away. but i think this is for better or worse a lot of the politics in the future will look like reality television than campaigns in the past. i don't know if that is a good thing or bad thing but you better master it. >> is there hope for changes? >> changes to what? to go back? >> to go to a time where we could discuss great ideas and details and how things will be accomplished. >> there will also be some obscure website where you can do that. >> by the way, the good old days were not so good. >> no, the good old gdays were not so good. you want to start thinking back. the question is will you use the tools for good or evil. i hate to be that black and

white. just move forward. >> we don't define in america how somebody should vote. we let you pick it on their hair or their issue position. so you are trying to constrict it to this is how you should decide it. it is pleuristic and let anyone decide it anyway they want. >> all right. well, thanks for the good question to end on. big thanks to -- >> not going to let you end quite yet. >> i want to ask you chuck, and everybody else, how many of you guys in this room are thinking about or considering going into the politics or political journali journalism or something related to the public sector? what piece of advice based on where we are going do you think

the reality show is changing? >>

>> 80% of campaign spending has been directed toward advertising. i would say learn how to shoot a commercial, learn how to do it well and if you do you can make a lot of money in politics.

that is rapidly changing. the big money makers and i am speaking of money because i know your generation, the big moneymakers in politics are increasingly going to be the people who figure out how to take what we have been doing on television and do it in the social media space. because the circle for money that is -- if money spending on campaigns the biggest circle would be on television advertising. but that is shrinking and moving. we spent a lot of money on social media space. if you figure out it, get good at it, you will bow working for a long time on future campaigns. >> i would say -- regardless of

your dream being in the electronic or print media, work on your writing. work on your writing. it is a lost art. i think those of you who can put down on a piece of paper, or ev on your laptop, in a sophisticated way you will get a leg up. >> got it. i was going to say that. >> no more than 127 characters. >> the other thing is don't get too distracted by all of the shine and it is fun covering a campaign but the best jab i had was coverering congress and i learned more than i could have sitting on a campaign bus travelling through the same

thing and hearing the same speeches over and over. i learned about what candidates really do, you get the on the ground exposure. it is not as glamorous and you don't get the exposure dryou do when you cover a campaign but you will understand politics and campaigns when people talk about information because you will have been steeped in it. it will make you much better as a political reporter. >> i agree with everything that has been said especially the writing and covering congress. the majority of people that cover presidential campaigns cover congress. there is something to be said for getting there. and the other thing about the media changing and i have no

idea what the direction will be but there is always going to be a need for great content. really well reported, well written content. i mean, that is never going to disappear. >> let me thank you all. let niasia ellme say, first, th conversation this evening, and i am not sure which was better, what you guys said or what you guys asked, but this is a demonstration of the power of the brains and the place and the institutions here. every single person, i cannot tell you how proud i am, that every person on this stage is affiliated with our school and you. and they are because they believe in you and the future. and that is a powerful and wonderful thing. and i thank you for that very, very much. i would like to ask you in the audience to join me in thanking

this panel and thank you for the talk. good luck in 2016. be safe and well. special thanks to chuck todd who raced over here. do me a favor, tweet, facebook post, instagram, tell your parents and everybody to watch "meet the press." we are all helping chuck lift his already terrific ratings even higher. thank you all.