and randolph came up with this in 1967, and1967, and it is essentially a ten year plan to eradicate poverty. it is hilarious. full employment and living wage and access to housing, things that you hear presidential candidates say today, and they said this and 67. i was talking about this plan. and can mcgill interrupted enter up to me and said comeau we have been doing justification work we uncovered the 100 year plan to remake the los angeles neighborhood. the hundred year plan. this corporationthis corporation has a 100 year plan to re- envision what los angeles will look like. but the idea is not sufficient. we must have a vision.

how dohow do we think about a statewide agenda that addresses this vision we have with anti- blackness, white supremacy no longer prevalent issues, but in the meantime and in between time you some real things that makes people's lives better and save people's lives. grab some water. so i kindi kind of have three different ideas and ways to think about that. number one is defensiveness. and we have seen a consolidation of power on the right,, legislation that we have to combat in be defensive around. secondly, reforms, incremental reforms moving us in the right direction. this consolidates corporate power and power on the right. how do we make sure there are forms we make are moving toward our vision of the world that we want to see.

lastly, how we think about transformation, pass and introduce and frame the work we are doing in a way that is transformative and grasps at the root of the problem we are seeing in facing. so in terms of defensiveness, thinking about how we combat what has happened, therehappened, there are four main areas. fighting the facts against preemption laws. across the country. there is so much stuff they cannot do. and we have seen this most recently in terms of education, georgia, and other states trying to wrestle control of schools out of local municipalities into state government in order to further privatization agenda, in terms of wages command we just saw in detroit they are trying to pass wage ordinances and have been stopped by preemption at the state level. how we think about and

combat this move toward state control that limits the ability of municipalities and communities to control the police in education system. secondly, limiting the voting municipalities to profit off of people. we have seen legislation pass in missouri and other places that gets to this. it is not okay that the budget comes from ticketing and the most vulnerable people in the community. what can we do as a state to check the aggressive predatory powers of local police departments and governments. stop the profiteering. and illinois has read the went to have led the way around banning private prisons. allowing them to call family members and children and stop the profiteering. the ability, this is how we choose to punish people is

not a private issue. that sounds a lot like slavery. and then lastly which is important and so how do we in a meaningful way bring some of that back. in addition to being defensively have to be careful. how do we make sure we passed is not re- in force the status quo? the two main areas, body cameras and community policing the cello putting quotes the whole time. so two sorts of departments

have no relations. a lot of staples in california and new york around test programs of body cameras. why don'twhy don't you film all of this. and that is not sufficient. it's an investment that increases police budgets without any accountability. thinking about body cameras and those type or reforms reforms in a way that is not just pay police departments more not to mention the corporate actors who are bringing millions of dollars. and to give them even more money is problematic. taking intentionally and critically about the ways that we are passing is reforms may consolidate

power of the folks who have been injuring. if you want to talk about that, and i would love to we should get a drink because as we move toward this we are creating a state in which surveillance is former policing. community policing is a phrase and then idea they were not mental health experts and did not want to do that job. justify the expansion of police duties and budgets.

as to his.safety is not justified by cages being careful about where we tread. it's not easy for you. and lots of houses.

anti-black, anti-poland, but how do we even in sight of that difficult space be thinking transform really? and i have a list about some of the things that we can do, but also being in spaces and then conversations with folks on the ground because people are thinking and incredibly creative ways. and people who are most impacted by violence and state violence have ideas about how to solve and get out of this situation that are incredibly valuable. number one is the end of cash sale. it is may prosecutors the judge and the jury with no accountability mechanisms whatsoever, and that should scare us. the unchecked power of prosecutors across the country.

we were all complicit in that creation. whatever intentions were are not, we have to be cognizant of the reality that all of us did a push on tough crime that really allowed for the creation of a prison state that was on both sides of the aisle. but we saw were literally tens of thousands of the laws being passed. and so this ranges at the state, local, and federal level. saggy pants, loitering, which is picking a public space. it is illegal for you to be

in public space. we saw tens of thousands of knew laws, and they may behavior that was not criminal criminal. things that were criminal and 85 should be criminal. they should not land you in the case. how do we create and support institutions it is not just about reducing it to misdemeanors because they will run your credit land you in jail and a part of the same system. how do we take entire swaths of behavior that are not dangerous that makes folks uncomfortable. and secondly, thinking about decriminalization with

reparations which makes people uncomfortable. you can call it reinvestment, whatever language makes you happy inside. but the idea is we extract the extract literally millions of dollars from communities, destroyed families. this has led to the destruction of communities across the country command we can track which communities. and so moving aside decriminalizing things like marijuana call the profit from nasa go back to the folks we have extracted it from, right? and that can be done fairly easily, but engaging in that process and having accountability -- for instance, and wisconsin please save the hundred $70 million annually if we decriminalize marijuana. what did the do for restorative justice, housing thinking about ways to ensure at the state level that money is refunded back to communities. the last 30 years mass incarceration has had incredible consequences and

it has been most families. every single year i'm sure you sit and committees to think of our money goes. but we have seen is a huge increase in spending for instance,instance, between 1987 and 2013 it was 135 percent increase. and a 6 percent increase in spending on higher education. invested so much money and incarcerating and caging people. right? in this country there are ten states who presently

spend more. andand across the country that we are seeing increases in incarceration spending. and not only is this a bad idea moneywise so that we for instance no that a 10 percent increase in real ranges results in a 14 percent decrease in crime rate over ten years. we factually know that aa 9 percent increase in graduation rates was often a 10 percent decrease in criminal arrests. we have data that tells us that if you invest in jobs and education you will have lower crime rates which is not policing. increasing police presence. it is a good idea. we have to think about budgets in this section of who we care about. a budget or the major investment is judgment. here

sayingjudgment. here saying something plane. it is time to take a serious look and realign them to reflect our values. now incarceration. and so it is time to be bold as time as individuals to the board about where our money is going and priorities are. >> last but not least we have rochon robinson who is the executive director nation of change. membership from a little over a thousand over a million.

a leading force in holding government and corporations accountable and advancing visionary solutions. for the past four years he has greatly expanded the scope and impact of the organization and has continued to build a member drivena member driven movement around the issues that matter most to black communities. under his leadership and state innovation exchange color change developed and led a national campaign against alec i guess i don't have to explain.explain. but watching the american legislative exchange council. after exposing involvement in passing discriminatory voter id laws amaze posing alec for harmful stand your ground laws, color oflaws, color change pushed over 90 corporations to end their financial support.

as a result he disbanded the public safety and elections task force. the committee responsible for drafting out for loss. he is a leader and social rights and he is appearing in many news stories. he was also named for the past five years, i believe, to the rue 100, a list of influential african-americans under 45, and he is the proud recipient of the at: advocate award and the transforming america award as well as just last week the community change champion award from the center for community change. with. with that, please join me in welcoming rochon robinson. [applause]

>> at 5-foot three, i know that i must stand. how is everyone doing? great. i want to talk a little bit. it is so great to be on the panel with you, too, asyou, too, as well, and i want to talk about how we get there. the policy solutions are visionary and transformative , but we are living in the states and the communities that we live in right now. the work that dante is talking about and the uplifting of young people's voices and there visions for our democracy and economy are what we need, butneed, but how we get there. i want to talk a little bit about movement building, little bit about what we need to do together, little bit about the inside again in the outsideand the outside gain which is something that often times we do not do as well as we should. first, color of changes

founded in the aftermath of hurricane katrina. ten years ago, this moment of deep disappointment, pain, frustration, anger that so many americans had that the failure of government, to be accountable to the most vulnerable communities, to be accountable to black folks, and folks watched as people were literally left to die and the government did nothing, and in the aftermath of that our founders sent out a single e-mail and said join us in this effort told government institutions accountable. we have grown through campaigns like holding fox news in our media accountable and forcing glenn back off the air.

they could not sell advertising. many organizations that the campaign would not have been successful without, the organizations that are doing deep research and organizing for years, organizations standing outside of the offices protesting. we said, you know what, alex is 98% of its money from corporations who every single day come to black folks to buy our products or use our services. we told the corporations that you cannot come for black folks money by day and try to take away our vote or make us unsafe by night. [applause]

and we mobilize our membership, stood with other online and civil rights organizations. i see my friend from p triple c and other organizations listed with us and mobilize their members corporation after corporation dropped domino after domino. still around and doing attic but webut we were able to create a framework for who he is. no longer are they the shady behind the scenes organization. america has a better understanding of what they are what they do, and it was because of the power of every day people's voices the stood up and pushback while you all were in the state houses standing up and pushing back as part of the outside and inside game as necessary to win. and we stood up to fight for an open internet against some folks that were maybe in this room were part of

runs they were often times in, but we stood up to fight for an open internet because it's not just about the issues that we fight for but our ability to get them to the door, our ability to have clear roads that make our voices powerful in our economy and democracy they will be critical to us fighting the david and goliath fights of the future protecting an open internet was not about assigning online or signing petitions, but our very ability to be heard and counted invisible regardless of whether we are privileged are vulnerable comeau majority comeau minority come in favor come out of favor with whoever may be in power. and so, at color of change we are working to distribute the organizing work that we are doing. wedoing. we launched a platform that is urging our members to start more campaigns. many of you may hear from members to petitions and campaigns in different ways. i apologize in advance, but hope you will thank me later. you will hear from members standing up and fighting on

a wide range of issues, some of which will be symbolic, but necessary for the structural improvement of our lives. symbolic because we will be urging you all to remove confederate symbols from streets the fact that property of the schools in california i'm only saying is confusing to be ironic. that is part of the work of on wrapping new people. helping people understand why race matters, the important work to move -- building movements that are powerful to push overline the powers the goals that you all want. when folks come to me and say we want to get more black folks involved in our issue.

and i hear it on everything from public financing to climate to every other issue that impacts our community every day. reaching people where they are and moving people up, but it is not just about but we say but what we do. having my policies behind the right words which goes to my clear point i want to make. in this age of media, this age of getting things to turned on social media, so often we mistake cultural presence for cultural power. the mistake presence or awareness of our issues and facts that they are out in the community or people talking about them by the fact that we have built the power to get them over the line, that we have built the energy and the passion and engagement of everyday people to ensure that people will move on the issue and we want them to move on the issue. and so whether it is

legislative change in the fact that so many of our issues, we can get them on the front page of the news but can't seem to get people to show up to meet with the representatives or better yet, we cannot get people to vote the right way we want them what to hold their elected officials accountable, to incentivize those in power to do the right thing and push them out when i do the wrong. whether it is our media environment and every single day we see the news stories and local news, we want to step back and unpeeled some of what we were seeing. we started doing studies and reports monitoring local news coverage. if elected new york, the new york local market, themarket, the 11:00 o'd 10:00 o'clock news is because in many places they set the standard for what happens across the country. and we monitor them 1st six months every night.

some poorç staff had to look at the local news every night and monitor and we went back and compare that coverage to nypd arrest records 40 to 50 percent of white crimes. they all underreported what crime. an array of coverage that was happening.

that was what you're talking about. a story that incentivizes and pushes us to believe whatthat we are being told on the front pages of our newspaper. we push this outthe saturn started campaigning. pushing the networks to do better. were not racist, but what you all are doing each side is this, and now we have to fix this or will be having conversations with your at the charges. and in the last peace, and this is an important piece in something that -- the amen choir peace.

and i believe i will have this in this room. we made so many mistakes are on corporate accountability. after 2010 so much of our work should have been focused on holding and pushing back corporations. corporate accountability not only as a structural issue but a symbol is uniting not just across movements for black lives, but we see it showing up in other communities around the country, other oppressed communities on the right and left that have seen how corporations have moved and our lives what oppressed

people, not just black people but immigrants and women and gay and lesbian, bisexual and transgender people and native people when comeau we are went -- we all win. leveraging symbolic victories and i work remains and continues, but i want to thank all of you for standing up and helping us understand better. and we will continue to be an outside force agitating, pushing, and driving forward the issues on the inside. [applause]

>> it will open it up for q&a. transformative policy changes. ..

>> >> end of militarization of campus police. looking hard a and a deep. >> with in the budget fight

in that focus in this is not a one issue problem with the manifestation across the board whether a platform that it gets to that. >> and also say tuesday consent to search for a special prosecutor's but if this movement moment of people standing up to talk clearly about police accountability that is what provides power and more opportunities.

>> spirit the voting rights act started off as the omnibus bill and got down to a voting rights bill but it went to congress and to the country from voting to the economic justice. even if you just pass one it is important. >> we want to hear from you so to answer all the questions to hear from them then to have another round. >> introduce yourself briefly spirit die of a

state representative from new hampshire a and in the state of new hampshire up this time a lot of the presidential candidates coming. one of the issues that has come up, i wonder how out - - how you as leaders address it. with black youth unemployment as 55%. >> also from new hampshire i am in my 70's i remember many years ago there is as much frustration as i hear today. the black panther movement came on and there is mixed opinions should they be here again?

>> i am from the great states of florida. that is not to be carbon copy on many issues. [laughter] and a proud of the already and. i know you talked about decriminalization policy but can you talk about the impact of policies like foster care, on-line access to informational made to their reentry policy prayer very stocked legislation how have you look to those other policy areas affected impact our brown and black

communities and how we can come together especially in florida not obey does black lives matter and so i do brown lives. i think people hear the words black lives matter but they don't hear the message of what that means. so if that is written in the editorial to come back from my it -- not maturities that the white lives matters into. that is true how we say that especially in the south pole was to make better policies as long as three show it is a big umbrella. >> good afternoon i am here with my a good buddy the

cochairs of the lead to no legislative caucus working with our black caucus to move ahead the legislation through the state with criminal-justice we passed a huge package of community and refund trust reform this past session we know there is a lot of work that needs to be done bayou touched on was essential to you curtail the power of of prosecutors. they are a part of this the of legislation dealing with judges say of the debtor's prison. summit would be great to hear your thoughts out weekend package that but i think if our colleagues would see if they was repeated seoul's.

[laughter] -- pee themselves. [laughter] >> keeping this g rated. [laughter] >> so i will take the first to. with the response of the black youth unemployment is the idea of something you did in new york rewritten as a campaign safety beyond policing that was an attempt to intervene around the budgetary decision making in new york city.

the budget is over 100 million to be spent on 1,000 new cops so what would you do in addition to the current police officers out there. the largest military and the world. so we asked the of question would you do with $100 million and how do better use that money to provide jobs to provide housing? said budget's determine propriety and are deciding to reflect our values. once you have every configuration and in order

to provide this stage, is used to have actual adequate health care. and how to put power behind a the way that we can incorporate reinvestment. the black panthers are in an organization but not a movement of what we see with the last 50 years took the black panther were pushing up against is the reality that there still impacted by police brutality or impacted they haven't just change but

devolved say you see a real reflection of this over decades. >> i am a broken record that surely between incarceration the eqality jobs so in that way it is important but to be tough on crime then produce more jobs locally did is the key component to

increase during bin communities across the country. i don't have a solution and beyond that though we should talk about it that way. so we just did an analysis of 10 state budget is looking at how much money is spent with child care or any of those things had rethink this is an experience and how do we support folks in communities? and whether or not it is passed the hivites and elevates away from incarceration. i will talk to the

prosecutors but that criminalization is said huge piece of that. so that discretion in inside is very powerful. into canada go to new jail for more than three years on this charge for proper the one of the major problems will surfy seen 20 years for almost nothing. that is the threat to put you in a cage for almost 20 years people would do with anything to get out. the maximum is a powerful idea. event the substitute for

militancy for those that might include guns they revolutionary party in a meeting in fallaway but if that includes access to housing that is all things that concept to be portrayed as one thing but that agenda is one that we go back to quite a bit. the black panthers lays out the platform that we would get behind. >> i don't have much to add except it is about what we incentivizes when we push

for legislation in the system project through when we think about prosecutors in cases where to be involved with potential misconduct out we're fair and open and just with district attorneys and prosecutors do not do the right thing somehow we have a system that is open and fair to incentivize the right things? to second everything my:panelist has said how we hire a special investigators with the woman that was found hanging in does jail cell we had mobilized

hundreds of thousands of members to the justice of parliament to go back and forth but to hear the conversations from of members of all the problems in this county their part of a larger narrative about collusion and though lack of incentive to do the right thing. the conflict of interest that occurs inside the criminal justice system that the investigation is not binding. what the investigator has found the first part of a three part series the next two pieces will come out soon but it is what we hear read much more factual details it and it popped

into a corrupt system that has baal if they can hire a defense with incentivizes the share in his sketches were taking with the under the table this is the only democracy to zaph this type of system so we're not sitting inside a process the past to change for what was laid out but at the micro level a woman with given a $5,000 bail the family had to figure out how to get that. a gain in her jail cell but at this story level at the macro level we see how this

system absolutely incentivizes this with corporate power and that is the work of the surveillance industry they pushed these policies in states around the country because as the movement happened no more prisons what happens if they're getting money from surveillance and that is the new frontier we cannot simply be fooled for all the way is the system will incentivized of wrongdoing.

>> he keeps having me on these moments but where it has been privatized we see the politics to push forward >> there is also the police department even in chicago those that are policing communities in chicago as well so that is to be paid close attention to. >> we will do is speed ground. >> said this proportionality of africa and the cavemen is truly immoral it has done

work with racial impact and i have tried very hard in arkansas unsuccessfully but what are your thoughts and whether something could be very helpful to shine a light to refuse he this does away and to have information it's as we will never racial impact statement so well least we will be informed of the impact we would have a that we don't intend to have >> that is also a fiscal impact. thank you so much.

>> i am for minnesota mining is about a strategy. i came from the outside to the inside the first time they see an activist to see a corollary with no idea of a legislature works to make that a mutually beneficial relationship instead of adversarial. >> to be concise.

>> i think it is about leadership to take it upon themselves that is the goal to bring legislators and activist together and to find discrete things to work on in the beginning to figure our homage the rubber band will stretch or break because it is about people understanding their role to break down so much sand to be clear there will be times the force can do so to the extent to have the groups all lined up the day of play

to get people in their room to see one another. >> in the york city that two ways is through existing bills one that includes statements to say you just want to know. so it is then important step. addresses the idea is to know the impact is the important first step. the week to push that to inform pope said relationships are important.

to based in policy agenda is the involved way. this is the key to all of that. submit that bad relationship is not just another greedy opportunity with the activists. >> with the sheer impact in relationship. in bin tv what it means you.

[applause] basin last question in response i that this was a great conversation talk to them in the hallway. my wishes we can continue this note -- movement. thank you. been to a knowledge how powerful that is. think about how powerful that could be to go back into our state to be in

connect to idea is. so again to ruth in heros of mine. thank you again. [applause]

they the elections until after a speaker has then selected the favored right

now is peter mccarthy there will nominate m. with the secret ballot on thursday exactly three weeks from the date all 435 members of congress will come to the floor of the house to hold a live roll-call vote for the next speaker is suing dow leader mccarthy is chosen chosen, he will have vacated the majority leader position at such time members could follow for a new majority leader and then the majority whip is open creating another reelection in so there are concerns for not accounting for the fact that it isn't the same as actually electing him on the floor also concerns if he

can get the votes necessary on the florida to become speaker in the first place. there is a lot of moving parts. does that make sense? [laughter] tell us about the candidates that are set to speak for those republican caucuses and why the process? >> the presumptive favorite for the speaker of the house is being challenged by the rank-and-file republicans and daniel webster because he talks about process and collaboration man and that member of the class said he is of fresh face not spill by capitol hill.

but the new wrinkle is the candidacy of jason j betts to take on a higher profile and now he would be challenging mccarthy as well. his argument is mccarthy cannot get the necessary votes on the house floor that they're too many conservatives that don't want to vote for him. said he is trying to put him for read as the alternative to be a conservative alternative to mr. mccarthy and that is the case. >> with the of process to make their selection tell us about the house election for a speaker. what does that look like?

>> that is a b.c. at the start of every new congress. all the members on the floor the curtain call every buddy's name individually they stand to announce their pick for speaker. traditionally they will speak in favor of the nominee who comes out so if they nominated boehner that that is you were expected to vote for. of the minority party votes for their leader to be speaker and in their case that is nancy pelosi. nine everybody votes for the nominee we saw that in january with two dozen republicans some were

punished for it to be seen retribution so you will see some of that. and mr. mccarthy has the neck of defections to get the threshold of to madrid 18 votes the house will vote in but keep floating on a second and if third live show and tell somebody gets 218 to be speaker of the house. >> the navy for he ends his time in congress and following it all add up will be bright thing about it. fall over. thank you. 10-20

years. [inaudible conversations] >> good morning. we're all in invigorated by the redskins' winning so we well gather data. we are here to do talk about russia. as we're beginning of thebout discussion to t think about what is more inherent with the of russian national security character we're trying not to immediately not tn put the attention on president putin i am sure foc

many of your questions ints. the second half of the event will focus on currentff and events. but the project that we undertook stars to get the some russtion well with those choices be and how does that influence the way russia would make its choice? to divide that away from putin it is hard at this juncture given and the degree the kgb operative has come to dominate russian national security on political space and you know, he is the author -- the co-author of the subject many of you have already seen this with a new and expanded edition that came

out after to the of ukraine crisis this is one of manyundere books also a paramountudgment is economist and one of the best books he ever wrote in my judgment was the price of a pass to and understand the andacy of the militaristic economy he has written many of their great books of the years as well and a career foreign service officer working on and the ukraine d before he became to his brookings and in the same is spirit this is about neck steps u.s. rashad arms o control.rked in the

and also reflecting the previous work also u.s. a lot ambassador to the ukraine touroe focus his attention on the crisis of central europe also the next book that would be on ukraine itself in the spirit of show and tell level plug my book shamelessly that has the russia baltic state not that ths i am predicting we have tond mor fight such a thing i am more worried about it that i would have been a couple years ago but today's eventwhat at least as a starting point on the notion of the psyche can and t what extent can we defined paradigms' to

explain them into russianate ma history and politics and to infu discern which spate it could be headed or how we mayinflue exercise that influence iom almost done with his introduction i will hand of lower over to my co-author that cannot of the notionto think 10 years down the road st as he takes his leave fromcade the political stage if it hasn't happened by bin but of what there is already possibility he may try but there is a really separate question if the russian population is wit them to what extent could ago in a different direction clo so before turning over to clef and then to give his r

own take where russia could be headed but the five main philosophies or paradigms' our concepts we think russia it may consider getting outpolicy with the issue of what drives russian foreign policy and national security thinking? we had eight concepts with fi three that were likely the first one will sound very unlikely so think beyond and pretend but the first is theg t pro western russia isn't all warm and fuzzy knocking on the door to join but going

back to the field that wehe had in the yeltsin years russiad venusian that we call as minimalist russia to mind its own business in the national security realm to focus on economic development obviously with its climate that may becomeer thboutonducive to agriculture t with the basicevel economic character could decide to emphasize economic development so we describeteresn this as a minimalist russia of e but the third concept and the centerpiece of theout it. article that we call the reagan russia of course, we invoke the notion of ronald reagan but we've been a rash

said that is patriotic and the defense industry to spur broader economic growth and does not use of military lot. from our point of view he won the cold war about firing a shot so to the extent pro-military this may or may not be from we imagine that is of reagin gorbachev era one is ready to lash out the other onehat will excite -- exercise as much as possible. the last two concepts may

invoke more the way he is to these days. cliff thank you for being here today and this is how we get into the discussion as well. and canal over to my good friend. it is good to see such a big group for those who i have not seen in a while. also thank you to steve for taking his time it is viable for us so i especially want to thank mike for this project with our joint work, and

to follow the economist for tradition to be listed as the primary author but to me he was much of the brains behind this he has been here for a long time and we have done a few things together but it is so long time this for was refreshing because i think sometimes is described as an issue on everything but not really on russia book that turned out to be incredibly refreshing. so with those issues most notably on the budget and actual capacity looking at the problem of the country fro but he can step back theny,

expert may have to have fundamental questions that history and the culture and geography but also the capa constraintsbi to look at they w military budget of the comes united states or natoe of you countries. the that is what characterizes the weea have done for those of you that read the short article to always keep in mind realities the matter what is happening today the matter what president putin we hp to is most importantio. ow keep those in mind. d we eliminate preeminent up to five but that is the one

he mentioned is the option it just means that to create a very large military force that you boast about them and parade them around theabt. that is not really what it is about to expand your dimens power it has a strong domestic connection about thisving private and patriotism. and that is on of thep a

potential outcome is. and that would be likely isem ae somewhat more aggressive. wihe is jhere five and six on a thuse scale you don't want to the wa to runit is like austria to one that would revive the soviet union. russia so we talk about it is most15-2 likely the rest of the ig to future down the road will end up somewhere in the middle because the forces of realism with that consensus

with upsurge downs ofe rgan volatility to move in that .irection the paper itselfdetail is telegraphic so it is in there but the other finalists that we have come to that has a lot of weapons is but not that we use themst frequently but this is theonsida minimalist russia driven more reconsideration therema are limits for what you can spend so if you think that

is the name of the game you concentrate on that then toal justify that and pitches to the black back off from that coble activism the carriage of military strength depends on the strength of your e economy. could be a mixture of the two the reason no one tocus on i focus on this option is thatte n maybe it is not known there is a debate in russia that e is vigorous among the elites that which the of minimalist russia is quite strong the the dozen translate i don't

think the pure minimalist is a variant that was says by a having adequate security that it needs then backed off the maneuvering a geopolitical to develop the by economy. ishe a group by the technocrats and though elit.al with the most active by business elites this is the not a utopian vision they doe not ignore the political reality think of the rus reaganev version of to political realities with att

domeic lism and national pride also with domestic stuff realities because you build pro up the big military to for maintain that social or industr political peace is the morehas.o important reason about keeping good jobs in the heartland. t but but also attuned to thecall political reality.on't quen t they call themselves my into't t aunt they do not call for the need for russia to defend itself but they areo beht threatened but we have to gettig

concentrate to get our own house in order. their goal always be tempering be more extreme version but it is important mon a huze. is the pattern rather thanafter 100th years ago put the prime

minister at the time that person would is referred to as one of his hero's.ministe wro he let the -- wrote a letter commander in chief of the russian army and to go those in low and though lessons from the war and a i college student and second great power with them its instead they concentrates

but there were a divisor is get close run dash advisers close if we don't their own system in order but it has a breathing space notion thatars. we have this period in which we need called to anothe concentrate on our newlm

recoize give the state 20 years of called a home and abroad in the will not recognize russia. this is the notion of athe strategic retreat. too on the people could end it is part of the camel -- the company's but even dolmens cit one dash but he wanted a way

year in the breathing space the documents in hishim. manifesto even with peoplet with influence on him who espouse this view but today but believe the of voice we could name some names the has long term research ship for the finance minister for those who are concentrated on this. was but just to make thet may country's point they issuedd thw a report that said it may be a good thing we got booted becae from said teeeight. -- the g8 if forces us to realize you're not in the prix league -- the leaguebelong.

weat i have been relegatedlo to where russia belongs. is a wake-up call. and of all people in mid to of death they did big manifesto a couple weeks ago that attracted a lot of commons he is in social media but we have to assume that putin must have sanctioned what he wrote but the scenarios are erive and well that alllittle pp options are open and that is why i hohipe this will paper is day and the airline.

obviously track current defense spending for word 15 fo years at which planning on acco. our side how we respond militarily takes this intoin. account just like the ballhandy game. the game isn't over but we have a handy way to think about these issues i will ask you to fill in this the minimalist and russia the besieged russian and reaganev russia. if you had to rate the odds doin based on anime putin or the

lfseed states but what you see within russia itself isimpli itn too soon? >> the story is the interaction it is minimalist russia put this into budgetary terms that clearly budgetary terms that clearly puts into the second tier ofpowe thers u.n.. we spend more than 81 per together. that is a muscular russia. but the minimalist russiaas

being but obviously we would focus and. but how incredibly well prepared but the is interesting thing is but

this is that persian. but putin will do it in a more aggressive way but it is still a different man to conquer the soviet union.age ard said those around him with that on triage they're very much concerned about his role in the global economy don'e the gate can cut itself off ese mo to go after these hard-line defense but i would suggest tili that the economic realities to be in the reaganev

tambourine each other sayr call don't give a pure minimalist version but with that pure publicly driven approach then is how vague when didover t the neck community. >> thank you for playing this game with us but also of h feelow free to play out your own view of russia's future. >> first of all, your article does a good job to lay out that spectrum of security paradigms' over the next 15 or 20 years for it is important to look beyond putin if he is years to a

the constitution to step and 20e and thenbecome prime minister he will assume the presidency at 20 or 2024 at the latest budget in terms of these various models at in af least ates likely as the person who comes in after the live more like putin bay and mchale gorbachev 2.zero and they have done a good job to rule them out and i will talk briefly then offer some comments on the implications and constraintsbatg there is the debate by the accused the phrase sober realism.w of ameri i hope you areca right to in ter because msthat is the best to,

deal with the adenosine's it's r requires a change of thinking at the top asin the iei mr. putin declares russia's future to focus on economicsee-. is.home to decide to build a competitive free market reining ones not sure how likely that is. >> those of the american interest if you look where russia is now it is a russia that is driven but also havem the domestic influence we're on the world stage and that

has a big domestic aspect it is the large sense of a it these notthe orange revolution days were not manifestations of local populations these are allse wer planned instigated by theia and california to target atthat nari russia if anybody goes after than that was under tosays midwest if you look at what mr. putin says he appears to be the effect he says it's so much.

in then began the campaign domestically. that is what we have to deal with now.ussia th mr. putin but also conventional forces asat is the kind then isn't just nuclear forces but toationt talkhe about perot we have toera

think about russia in aopolitical terms in a different way from four years ago because we see russian now asserting itself using military force that most did not think thehat elections would do but having said that it is important to recognize there r a of a kick concerns of all,n what russia can do.f first of all, can it sustain a the exhilaratedt level over the last six or seven years? head to do have her impact

to why native reform but with an industrial base one s the most especially now just walking enough floor and in some cases they just

a couple of examples they would unveil there fifthbut generation in fighter the equivalent of the f-22 mont ago sore than 10 years now but to say they will reduce it in the next five or six years that does not suggest it is working in a way that the russians want to or can afford but the limitations on high-tech look at the interaction in since syria did seems they are dropping bombs but in.

the west cays virtually everything the air force strops sometimes they get ane wrong target sograte hiech sometimes there is limitations to integrate high-tech into the forces but also with the demographics the number ofssiano you ians returned half of 2006 that is the definition of a big army.ipts, pele who get 50% of the unlisted people get one-year training that they're out to. would most consider a level of constri performance when year is in the army and the other constraint is do the into d russiansif make mistakes? we may

not that it is a support for nepotism now it is a bigger we have with syria. these constraints don't mean they don't have to worry about russia but in terms of adjustments with their own policy we can be smart with sety.egic nuclear forces that will be the foundation for russia's security if they have to cut back on spending able modernize that security force.nd mbers we don't have to worry about that because they're facing the bombers they should have so the replaced 17 years ago but in the 1990's they had no money to do that.

so russia will buy the thtercontinental ballistic missiles that sounds like a, large number but that is exactly what they need so i don't worry so much but ifch boi we continue to observe the nobeing ons united states goes for word better now -- now planned out. the non strategic nuclear forces is also the issue of the volatility but i don't think that requires the united states m because wenstrac stve a different approach

but those sorts of assets we want to maintain. i would argue to deterring and assuring russia also the allies in the central europe icanbaltic states it is smart to bu mild up notently thd nitshing large but consistently it has those

termof assts of 150 troops with light infantry but looking at countries that is 15 times the size of russia.thar but now i think that whaton is does that mean for the current crisis? i've been some cooperation is possible but that challenge has been set up a lotf between u.s. and russian military the military forces

you will have some conversations so the russianyout militaryo aircraft so you i t broader be sure to avoid mistakes like that. i am skeptical about broader cooperation its gains that washington and moscow do not a p agree with the transition that is the obstacle with russia and on the one side and the united states and the lf wellean countries that i in my view it has to include the departure of assad in power. also we may not be fighting the same thing is in syria but just retraction the russians have said different

things but on wednesday and the federal council wases asked to rubber-stamp theirke use of force and they received their marching orders but the head of the administration said our goal is in the stage but then they said islamic states and extremist that is a really broad word. you ta if you take a peacefulcow and demonstration you can beday inok charged with extremism. the foreign minister made a comment event looks andterrorisa talks like a terrorist is aghtsa terrorist and subject to military action and. based on what we have seen the last six days they'reically not dropping any bombs on asuppr basis basically conducting

military activity designeds, to support the assad regime from the moderate opposition, is groups straight think russian policy if it looks and talks like judge terrorist and that will be a problem because there are very different objectives the bottom last thing specifically if it seems there is an option shouldat optm the united states and the west to impose a no-fly zone over syria? shoot down that would be very difficult not impossible to go into the no-fly zone you have to be prepared to shoot down any aircraft for the airdi

force is one thing but it could be something very different for a i have one question and then i have that then we both go straight to you. could we have one more clarifying comment? you reheard by dash you mili heard spending 150 billion too per year rather than po 50 billion those serve a the relatively extreme choices. rusp to talk about a muscularumber os russia to throw the terms that you to understand the haven situation but the specialms of

forces is more than thetially ss $50 billion per year but ropean essentially it spins as much as a larger european nationtaryy and what they spend on their coe military the $150 billionhree st budget is the of muscular russian up clearly putting it into the number threel milite spot in terms of overall th military budget to endms of nucr either way it is tied for the cold metal the much more than any other country. but to be the great eurasian land power wanted to tie those together but going

back in the article may have peop comments there are two are spangerous russia was on theec spectrum in one is wheretf putin or the future of leader could conspire to the read the rusessian speakers are today. it could include parts of the central asian republic that is the dangerous russia whh if anybody i wants to go there.little pla for any soviet allies should be brought forward but if you worry about either of those that putin gives up mandate he will try to annex

to be russian historians. >> i don't think it is wise for new debt for russia but i worry of little bit the. i do population is 25%. i don't think it is high probability but four years gsin ago i would say a zero probability. determine that kt things it is basically to take steps to deter that when i reada model the article at the end ofat baso the day i do discount a greater russian model. 2008 when you looked at to occupied the territory

russia has this unique rightiane to defend ethnic russians with whenever there's citizenship "the daily show"e te said they should be a word about that but taking on those territories means the moscow they are not very russian economy past years subsidize them until they within monththusiastic about that but if you watch the case with the ukraine withingrey one month after russian special forces seized crimeae is that was the history and was confli intended to be the home port

in the year in the half of th onflict ended to recognizen foe with the 18 months of conflict for what they had instigated there but on tho economically that required subsidies so that economic argument is a big constraintthe. during soviet times with alld tn the pieces of the soviet empire. primary >> please wait for thet as wel microphone and identifyt up h yourself. >> a fascinating discussiont

for all three of you. the possibly what you have considered is ahat w realm of realistic options but given what we know and putin end ukraine and syriai wod by what you have identified identified, i wonder if the assignment had been but does meshed need to do to regain

whplace of similar stature and a 21st century world reagan you try to think about you i mention in the reaganevabout isr model whether or not i rush ahead is capable under any leadership given history and culture is there anyat it is tai likelihood instead of a more militaristic approach it has taken that it could have. said to when selfie have to

get off of the will and gaslm of economy, growth our economy the future is clearly in technology so we want to compete with the west end of realm of technology but this is a thought experiment would ie experiment, would it have been possible 10 years ago or is it possible now or 10, years from now for russia towiti say this is how we will do theoe it? not with a larger military were the model but to become a high-tech 21st century advanced manufacturing technology type of economy spirit back gets to the iart of what you have worked on. move

>> that is the utopian idea that russia could move to the forefront of technology but there are too many a fa thatoblems is just the fact of many t decades ofecon very, very distorted the economy. even with the best of policies to undo thosenges that physical changes to dealt that with this city's 7 million people or more that are not really viable as cities.evelopel we deal with regions that are underdeveloped or coal mining towns that have to ,000 pown because the demand is:for the steel plant or

town of 50,000 that employedce 10,000 at the mill but think of the million and a half for there were one dozen or more. abando my point i always made is tojus abandon the utopian idea anybody who talks in those terms except the fact youp have a long way to go even to get to the second levelng competitive area.o a that isn't is not a goaling worth aspiring for but it is recognizing pride in the country doesn't have to me culte you have the most anything but it could be your culture that could be separated from the of military with great

power aspects purpose is to have the goal is to become a anw great power that is fine then work for it to say toere the competition is but that is not happening in russia right now. of thi i just talked about the economic utopian idea that if they could leave them leap forward to the forefront and there is a political aspect. who will do this?, and a i hate to say at but the layperson that will reform the economy will be vladimir putin. because right now every force in russia at isrograde wh retrograde so if you have more democracy then you haveis h

more economic policy. so this is the dilemma said t that russia has.hi paperink about the political and economic realities that is the way we assume even with the russian leadershipsia irraonal.g he said about the constraints of big powerful military might isrectly pnted irrational.itude the russian economy and gdp is smaller only did the united states if you add percent nato or tie note -- china and triple it just a few percent of its potential rivals.nasty.

japan's of the one-tenth of it s theho united states in world war ii but you can concentrate we tried to shggest in the paper that although tiny but it happens and to have as many nuclear weapons as redo -- we do. but don't go overboard. >> say something about ukraine underlying potential as you see it. because you look long nurtured you were ambassador as part of the former soviet unionty to have manufacturing with scientific capacity that has turned into more

for russia.the diffence >> in terms of overcoming ace fr a legacy i think thes flaws difference is i do thinkkraine this leadership has supplies isn they have a model it is moving towards a of market economy with those defects of corruption can they move that? but it has an easier, une rea challenge it doesn't have the aspirations and to be a seee great or regional power. . . ukrainian elite.