turkey particularly in the media and i mean really astounding cases of repression of the media as well as political opponents, particularly within the kurdish dominated h. e. p. -- hdp so this was a systematic strategy as blaise has preferred to buy erdogan of manufactured chaos, manufactured instability, violence and intimidation to essentially to scare the turkish people into revisiting the results of june 7, and returning the akp tube monopoly power because if they didn't basically it was as much a threat as a promise that things could get very -- much much worse and faced with a situation in which

stability was the question inside of turkey, i think their only choice was to return to akp to power. they felt the majority of the voters felt that was their only option was a strong akp government. and it was a miraculous result when you think about what he did his strategy was clearly, he had to whip up some level of national hysteria and went back nationalist voters and he got them hp to back the akp. at the same time he needed to depress the hdp vote and the kurdish vote and take so many voters away and he succeeded spectacularly on both accounts. mhp loss 40 seats and i'm assuming most of them went to akp and hdp lost more than a million voters i think who were overwhelmingly kurdish voters such as think about what he did.

one at the same time he won over millions of anti-kurdish right-wing nationalists and won over close to a million conservative kurdish boats. that's quite an extraordinary feat to be able to thread that needle, but he did it and again i think it underscores his mastery of turkish politics. what does it mean from here? i agree with my colleagues, i think it's bad news. i think the erdogan will see this as a vindication, as a mandate to continue doing what he's doing that this policy worked and that in fact whatever narrow window of opportunity exists on june 7 to begin dialing back the trajectory towards the door. -ism in turkey erdogan made sure

over the last five months that he was going to slam it shut and my guess the next four years until the voters go to the polls again he's going to make sure it's nailed shut and democracy and her wisdom and human rights and freedom of the press my gas are all going to suffer tremendously. i think he will push this notion of an imperial presidency whether the turkish people want it or not. i think he will figure out a way to get it and if it means dominated not just 70% of the media in turkey as he does now if it requires him dominated 90% or 100% i think that's what he will do. and if he needs 13 other parliamentarians outside of the akp to be able to go to a constitutional referendum on an executive presidency i think with the political winds at his back, with all of the powers of

the state in his command including all the coercive powers and all the incentives that the state can potentially provide to these parliamentarians, i think 13 seats is not a high hurdle or a big obstacle for him to work on over the course of next year in order to get that referendum. the peace process with the kurds , again i'm not sure but the fact is that pushing the peace process i think he will look back and say it cost me votes. it cost me both greater costs may nationalist votes. i think this election underscores how important a right-wing nationalist constituency is to his ability to consolidate power. i think that is a lesson he will take and reaching out to the kurds looking like i was pursuing a settlement hurt me. in fact over the last five months increased tensions,

increased conflict, increased violence with the kurds, that got me november 1. that's the path to go. maybe not full-scale war. the cost of that politically economically in terms of how far investors look at turkey that could be not a place he wants to go but the thought of low-level tensions, continued simmering conflict, my guess is that is what we are likely to see, a continuation. in syria, we will see but i think this attitude on the kurdish question this increased sense of being able to play the nationalist card of seeing kurdish aspirations as a threat and even a mortal threat to turkey's territorial integrity, i think that could spill over onto the syrian front and particularly the kurdish question inside of syria. i think the fact that

increasingly it looks like u.s. strategy is growingly dependent on the syrian kurdish y. p.j. the militia there which isn't that closely aligned with the pkk inside of turkey, the u.s. is really holding on tuesday will y. p.j. as an integral ability to fight isis on the ground including being able to put pressure on it's capital in raqqa which must be one of the main lines of our operations there. secretary carter has recently said in testimony i think that clearly and the turks have said that is a major major problem for them. even perhaps a red line, the notion of abutting u.s. ypj alliance on their border is something that they have said they cannot tolerate. up to now we have seen isolated incidents of some artillery, some airstrikes by turkey on ypj

positions across the border but i think that's something to watch and no doubt hopefully this weekend and early next week and when the person doesn't talk to erdogan trying to reach some better understanding about where we are headed on syria is going to be very important including what they are going to do or not do with the way pg. the way pg has the tip of the spear fighting isis then what is the answer? who else is going to do it? what is turkey going to do? it's certainly not the answer that turkey has had so far which is essentially to empower the non-isis radical jihad is across the border. that's no answer for the u.s. government. that's not a serious alternative to what we are trying to do on the ground against isis and now there's this question of what skin is turkey willing to put in the game?

subtle hints or not-so-subtle hints that they will give very serious that they have a coalition that they can work with. they don't put sonogram. are they prepared to go in and put boots on the ground in a police state sewn inside of syria? we will see you. that's a question worth pursuing but i don't think it's going to be an easy discussion and there are real potential landmines between us and the turks now over serious. i'm not at all sure that this election makes it any easier to resolve. in some ways it may make it even tougher because of where erdogan and the turkish military is on the question right now of the kurds. believe me there are -- there is no doubt a lot of turks that are fighting inside of syria with a ypj in the turks have said if there are u.s. weapons to go to sub tan that end up inside turkey being used against turkish security forces that

will be a real diplomatic crisis between united the united states and turkey. there are a lot of things moving now that could point us in that kind of direction. i think that's something we will very much want to head off. i would finally say stepping back to the larger picture here for me is that i don't know how narrow the window was but i do think it was a window that was opened after june 7. in which turkey may have had a chance to actually begin to put the brakes on this in juggernaut of erdogan hurtling towards a more authoritarian future for turkey. i think we probably will look back in retrospect and see this election on november 1 as a real hinge point for the country where did face a chance to go and perhaps two different directions. there may have been an off ramp

for them off of the superhighway of erdogan towards putinism with the nasty islamist twists to it. i think they thought about it. they thought about it a second time. they may have changed their mind and didn't take that exit and now it's in their rearview mirror and may have ended up in the express lane to some form of turkish putinism. and getting back to that exit from this very bad trajectory is going to be very very difficult and erdogan is going to make it very difficult if not impossible to have that kind of exit ramp and 2019. i think that will be a singular strategic purpose of his, to make sure that he doesn't have to go through the kind of experience he went through june the seventh ever, ever again.

so on that cheery note. >> thank you. thanks to all for a substantive discussion. i refrained my comments to use the time that we have left for questions from the audience. we will start here with dan. >> daniel, m. professor here at sites. i would like to hear a little bit more about countervailing forces. you mentioned the courts but we have heard little about the military as a potential countervailing force of the business community. the opposition political party. democracy doesn't happen because people are nice to each other. there is some sort of force that works against it.

if you could please keep answers short so we could have more questions coming. who wants to start? >> there are countervailing forces but i don't think they are powerful enough. you mentioned the military. they are a speculate about what the military is thinking. i think it's clear that erdogan wants the military on his side. and the military is an opaque institution but i think as much as we can see into it, they strongly support the idea of going after the pkk. they see the pkk is a greater threat than is isis and they see way pg -- ypj and pkk is more or

less the same. i think they feel this way enough that maybe it's not even completely clear who was driving the policy more but i think erdogan and that military are probably more or less in lockstep on this. i think there are other issues where they can put the brakes on and they have but the brakes on but i don't think it's about domestic politics. its foreign-policy. there was a rumor about two months ago that turkey was about to send land forces into syria. it's wrongly opposed by the turkish public. every poll has shown that. according to all reports and that's all we have to go by, the military said we are not going to do it. i think the military never lost total power in turkey and i'm

not sure. i may be in the minority on this. obviously with all the officers that were arrested, they were hurt badly. they certainly lost their ability to affect domestic politics, but they have in certain ways retain their autonomy and when it comes to the use of them they are decisive. they are not going to -- and our system the military might say mr. president this is a difficult operation. i'm not sure we can do that if the president says do it our guys will salute. i don't think in turkey the military has ever been like that even in its lowest moment. by the way the military has resisted in other ways too. the military system is still in advance. they control their own educational system. there was an effort and was

publicly announced by the government at one point that they wanted graduates of these state-sponsored parochial schools that svante mentioned, to be eligible for acceptance into military academies. there was a big fight that they would be eligible for regular universities. the military said no. so it's not 100% to nothing but when it comes to domestic politics i don't really see. that did business community maybe doesn't like erdogan so much that they are are a lot of people this so-called anatolian tigers who are significant factor. they are very much supportive of them. >> any comments? >> i would say one -- what

countervailing forces there are are -- if they even want to be. it's not clear if they want to be involved but if they would have wouldn't be democratically. the big businesses that allen mentioned a lot of the lead in turkey are deciding to leave to aid rather than continuing to live under the erdogan system where their liberties are going to be forsaken. among the kurds one of the stories that hasn't really been discussed is the radicalization of the kurdish youth in some of these towns where there is lots of fighting between security forces and kurdish youth. they were not members of the atk train to the congo mountains. there are local views have been radicalized by what was going on.

again that's not a very democratic process. the one place that might be able to say that there is countervailing force emerging is the person that allen mentioned, the coleader of the sub 10 -- ypj. erdogan his frame much limited by the politics of this his party even though he aspires to be a national party. on one hand he is a danger, perceived as a danger to erdogan and now he's perceived as a danger to pkk. i think one of the things i learned when i was in turkey recently as so many people want him dead than if he were to be assassinated i would even know who to suspect. >> thank you.

first of all i would like to commend this panel and the position of the bbc for providing such an accurate assessment about what's happening in turkey so thank you for maintaining that position. it's a juror resource. one rumor following the g20 that they might actually see immediate aftermath. i guess my question is directed to john hannah. and i wish ambassador edelman were still here. from that perspective the decision-makers in the room we are going to be dividing the presidents, it's nice that we are talking about erdogan took the brakes off and this is a dangerous regime. is anybody going to bias the president saying we shouldn't mess with these guys or who are we doing business with? erdogan has the united states

and europe over a barrel with a lot of things. he has managed to pull a lot of levers and the plastic politics. is it the case that is going to be able to do this at the international level? is anybody going to say dan this is not acceptable? >> i think it's a good question by the way he is one of our great diplomats on turkey. ambassador homes that does a lot and i would say no, my guess is not. i think there is a sort of sobering reality that hit the obama administration about what they are dealing with in turkey which actually took a very long time for people in this town to realize. or we had to study back in 2002, 2003 to understand what we were dealing with. i think it was an awful lot of wishful thinking about where

erdogan in the akp would take turkey and i think we are learning that now that we have developed strategies to do what we could to put backstops in support of turkish democracy and freedom of the press and the rule of law and all the things we care about. i think at the end of the day in the long-term it's vital for having a serious stable partner and a nato country. but i think allen is right at the end of the day especially now in the context that we are dealing with in the middle east today where there seems to be something of a regional melt down underway which this president has in fact launched a war against this terrorist organization and which we are getting some modicum of support now from the turkish government. i think he has manipulated that quite successfully. i have no doubt the decision to

grant us access to those bases was very much tied and that the service of his own domestic agenda with an eye toward what he wanted to do vis-à-vis the pkk and to buy some level of u.s. acquiescence and silence. in the same way i have almost no doubt that what happened all of a sudden after several years of this conflict is a rush of people i've turkey into europe creating this kind of crisis on europe's doorstep was so used to say no accident comrade. i do believe there was some level of manipulation there that erdogan does have his hands on the tap so to speak with regard to this refugee crisis. very much understands it's using this as leverage now in his dealings with both europe and

the united states and the west. if they want to have any hope in solving this crisis, not to mention the broader crisis in syria, is difficult to partners turkey has been the hope of getting a settlement without turkey somehow involved are slim to none and this crisis gets much worse if that requires you to lower your voice and look away if from the moment regarding basically the dismantlement of the turkish democracy and turkish rule of law, so be it. these guys are out of office another 15 months anyway and it will be somebody else's problem to deal with. for them i think they will say listen we need to do with them under these difficult regional issues and they can manage the nature of internal turkish politics. unfortunately, think it will

come back to bite us at some point. >> turkey's strategic import has has -- importance is always covered a multitude of sin and i don't think, that's no different now. we need turkey for the war against isis. as long as we feel they are not going to change but i did want to qualify a little bit for comments that have been made that the administration has been saying anything. i think they have actually, i've been surprised to be honest with some of the strong statements if you go back and look at press briefings. they have been very tough on turkey, on freedom of expression , and also following the election, the u.s. government did not congratulate

akp. it's very unusual in a landslide like this. we said we are waiting for the official vote which always comes out of turkey every 10 days, 10 days after the election. but we won't speculate on the result. we are the only ones in the world who wouldn't speculate on but the results were. that was a clear message that we were very unhappy about the human rights situation and the fact that the campaign had taken place under situation of great opposition. i think we have to be fair to the u.s. government. >> this has been an excellent panel. i wanted to ask ambassador edelman a question. he is gone so i will pitch this

this -- pitch this to the whole panel. you mentioned turkey has many cleavages and if you set aside religion and recall the akp came to power on the promise of economic governance the economy is slowing. what is the long-term or near-term implications of this for erdogan and the atp? >> do we have an economist around the panel? i think for a long time other institutions have less of a turkey has the most at risk emerging economy and you have seen overlong period of time tensions within the turkish government where erdogan was more interested in populous moves in did like the independence of the central bank and wanted to lower interest

rates. there was a resistance from the professionals, people in government like -- who is back in some capacity. we will see what happens but it seems to me the more erdogan capitalizes on this position of power that's not good news for the management of the economy and moreover right now the way the consolidation of power the crony capitalist type of economy that erdogan is building from 2010 to today is really off the rails compared to what it used to be. i don't see that changing. if anything it's likely to get worse which means the conditions for real economic downturn in turkey are certainly there. there needs to be a trigger of some form, and are internal or trigger. another election could then that trigger and i think they spread

that propaganda which has also helped them with the election. the question is what would happen if there was an economic downturn? many people in turkey say the only way we can get rid of erdogan is find economic crisis. i don't think it would actually work that way. think would hasten the system menu but push back any very repressive way. >> hi everybody. i'm a senior fellow for the stability institute. a couple of you have touched upon this but i want to go back and look from the eyes of the voters in turkey. try to understand why they gave erdogan a majority, a resounding majority. was it off because they

remembered the good times between the guess who was between 2003 and 2007 when things were going well. the turkish economy was growing. what was the common people the anatolian tigers i guess i could say, why would they vote for the party and propel it to the majority? >> i could start and they think there is an assumption that democracy matters to a lot of voters. it may at some point but i don't think it's necessarily the main concern. a colleague of ours spoke after the terrible mine tragedy in turkey. he noticed that the akp swept the local election. he actually went there not some 100 doors and asked people who

they would vote for and why. they all said they would vote for the akp. he said why did you than they said look i have a mortgage on my house. i have a mortgage on my car and have a mortgage on my washing machine. it goes back to bill's question question -- it's those levels we are talking about which means people are very fearful of instability. then if you look at the studies like a recent interview by non-turkish social scientist talked about what position as a lector at? then you have what you call if you will the lower middle class. ..

>> >> europe very much made a

bargain they would look either way with the turkey with the democratic violations at the scene of turkey doing more to keep the refugees in turkey. and also with some social cost you have what are mostly syrians coming into the communities of southern turkey so there is a cost but it is run the europeans are willing to bear to keep turkey. >> this brings us to the end of this interesting discussion. it is important for the neighborhood of turkey as well.

with that economic growth engine and what happens in turkey so we will be watching to discuss what happens in turkey the next couple of years to reduce the pay and asking questions [inaudible conversations]

>> we have a justice system not held according to what

we would be considered modern lot. not yet in place and there were no lawyers at the time. the core river is the extremely unruly place so to prosecute witchcraft. >> the interesting part of the accusations is that wealthy merchants bessie captives were accused to be witches. all the victims are female we do have five male victims so in addition there was so

much misunderstanding that is important to dispel. posal.

this is 40 minutes [cheers and applause] thank you very much.y righover can be and i are delighted ta to be here with the you today. please stand up so they can see you. now it's been a few years since i've been a at liberty that we talk about liberty all the time

since that's what it represents, liberty and freedom from the snares of the world and the right kind of teaching and the right kind of values for the young paper that -- people and viewers achieve vital part of the future of the nation. but you know, i do want to acknowledge today as veterans day because i feel that we don't do enough for our veterans when you consider what they did for us. i think about world war ii, and i think about those soldiers invading the beach at normandy being molded down by machine gun fire, 100 bodies laying in the sand, a thousand bodies laying in the sun.

with a frightened? yes. but did they turn back quickly stepped back over the bodies of the colleagues and overwhelmed the access. knowing in many cases they would never see their loved ones. why would they do such a thing? not for themselves but for you and me so that we can be free. so everybody that is a veteran can they stand up please. [applause]

it's a sacrifice and something we begin to think about in our lives because there is nothing that is free, and particularly the concept of freedom. we should be so delighted that we live in america. is there a better place to live than america. i've been to 57 countries and some of them are beautiful places that are always delighted to get back here because there's something special about the nation that we live in. have you ever noticed that there

is an american way, there is an american dream? there is no french dream. there is no canadian dream. [laughter] there really is only an american dream and what that means is that there is something special and something extremely unique about the nation that we live in and the values that went in to making this nation what it is and some people say there's nothing exceptional about america is just the same as everybody else. it's not true. even for hundreds of years people did things the same way. within 200 years of the advent of america men were walking on

the moon it's most successful the nation has ever known and we are delighted to be here. i wanted to be a doctor. but the problem was i wasn't that great of a student. everybody called me tommy. that was my nickname and i believe that i didn't think i

was very smart. and i remembered once we were having an argument in the schoolyard about who is the dumbest kid in the class. it wasn't a big argument because they all agreed it was me but then someone extended to who is the dumbest person in the world and i said wait a minute, there are billions of people in the world, and the upcoming q. are the dumbest one. but i did admire the smart kids and i couldn't even imagine how they could know so much that there was one person who didn't think that i was done and that was my mother. she always thought that there was something there. she would always say you were much too smart. and she just didn't know what to do and she prayed and asked god

for wisdom to know what to do to get her sons to understand the importance of intellectual development. and you know what, god gave her the wisdom at least in her opinion. my brother and i didn't think it was wise at all. turning off the tv, what kind of wisdom is that taking us read two books a piece for the public library and submits to the book report which she couldn't read that we didn't know that and she would put a checkmark in highlights and undermines and people always say to me why did you do it? your mother was always working. she wouldn't have known whether you read the books or not. and back in those days you have to do what your parents told you. there was no social psychologist saying let them express themselves. [laughter]

and as i read those books, incredible things began to happen. i began to realize particularly as i read about people of accomplishment but the person that has the most to do it is you. it's not somebody else. it's not the environment, and that was incredibly empowering to me. and i stopped listening to all the people around me who talked about what could be done. and i start thinking about what could be done and what a difference it made in my life, and fast forward to medical school i said wow i needed. i finally got their. my only dream was to be a doctor. i skipped right over firemen and

policemen, and there was finally a medical school it was going to be great. and i was sent to see my counselor and he looked at my record and said you seem like a very intelligent young man. i bet there's a lot of things you could do outside of medicine he says he were not cut out to be a doctor. i was devastated. i went back to my apartment and i said lord i always thought you wanted me to be a doctor but it's not looking very good here. >> and i started praying for wisdom and i started thinking

about what was happening with me and i was going to a lot of classes that i wasn't really learning anything from the classes and i thought the thing that really teaches you a lot is reading. so i'm not recommending this to anybody but maybe the executive decision to skip the lectures and spend the time reading and the rest of medical school bus easy after that and the point being that everybody learns in a different way. i personally don't learn anything from the lectures, but i learned a lot from reading. [applause]

there are other people who learned a great deal and that's how they learn. other people from discussions, some people learn from repetition, some people are very visual. one of the other things i discovered is that it's very visual semi-made flashcards. i had literally thousands of flash cards. always had a bunch in my pocket. in my second year in medical school i was living with my brother who was in the school of engineering. he even knew all the bacteria because i would have these cards are talking about it. so you find out what works for you and that is an incredibly important part of what you do and what we do as a society because god has endowed us with these amazing brains and we are

made in the image of god. and i get a lot of grief out there. people say how can you be a scientist and believe that god created the earth. obviously we developed from biochemicals. and people that don't know that you're a moron. i don't criticize them. i say can you tell me how something came from nothing and of course they can't. okay, no problem. i say i'm just going to give you something. and now you're going to tell me there's a big there is a big thing and it comes into perfect order so that we can predict several years when a comment is

coming that kind of precision. and they say well yeah and i say but don't you also believe that things move towards a state of disorganization? yes. how does that work and they say we don't understand everything. while i am not sure you understand anything. [laughter] but i say i'm not going to be critical of you, not the problem because you are entitled to believe what the bbc that it requires a lot more faith than what i believe. but everybody believe what you want to believe. isn't that part of the problem in the society today? people want to force their beliefs on everybody else.

i tv that the constitution gives everybody the same rights but it doesn't give anybody extra rights and that's where the problem comes in. [applause] and if we can begin to understand that the ideas we can make real progress because that would mean that people whether they believe the same or not could actually sit down and engage in the conversation and put the reasons that the belief on the table because when you you live in a pluralistic society it is absolutely crucial that we are now to do that and it's also very vital that we

begin to think about each other and begin to think about those who come behind us. when i look out there and i see all these young people and i think back to thomas jefferson who said that it is immoral to pass the data onto the next generation, and when i think about what my generation is passing on to you guys if you can bring thomas jefferson here today to let him see what's going on, he would immediately strike out. he wouldn't be able to believe the kind of death that we are moving with. 18 plus trillion dollars of national debt backs to beat coke. think about that if you try to pay that off with $10 million a day it would take you over 5,000 years and we are putting that on your back. but that's the good news because

it's actually much worse than that. the gap, the fiscal gap which is the enough of money the government does going forward with medicare, medicaid, social security, all the government agencies and programs we owe them for data versus the taxes and other revenue sources of course those numbers would be identical because you are not responsible to bringing it up to today's dollars if it's over $200 trillion. we can sustain that level of debt is because we can print money where there is a currency of the world. a position that generally goes with the number one economy which we have been in since the

1870s and we've been in competition with china but we still have the title. with china like to be the reserve currency, would you like to be able to print money we bet they would with the international investment bank. we have a little time to get our house in order. that's not a lot of time because the financial situation is very precarious. what happened on wall wall street would be a walk in the park compared to what will happen. fiscal responsibility is our duty and we can fix these kinds of things. it is possible to get our economy rolling again. we have the most powerful economic engine the world has

ever known in this country. nothing anywhere close to it. we declared independence in 1766 in less and less than 100 years but the number one economic power. because we have the right kind of atmosphere that encouraged innovation and entrepreneurial risk-taking and capital investment and all the things that fuel the rapid rise. they will fuel a rapid recovery if we are willing to look at them and stop doing silly stuff. you think of -- [applause] you think of an employer mandate that here's the situation where

people used to be so proud when they started the business. that was the very backbone. we put something in there to stop the small business from growing and then we wonder why jobs aren't coming. and that's why this is so important for people to actually understand what's going on in this country if you listen to the news last week use a lot of people rejoicing that the unemployment rate is down to 5%. but if you know anything about economics you know that you can

make that money anything you want it to be based on who you include and how you exclude and that the numbers the labor force number is the labor force but a sufficient rate which is at its lowest level since 38 years and that's why the founders of the nation said that our freedom and our system is based upon a well-informed and educated populace and if they ever become anything other than that, the nature of the country will change. the people will not inform the other was politicians. and they go off in the completely wrong direction listening to all kinds of propaganda and inculcating that into their methods of thinking

independent becomes easy for them to swallow things. they don't really understand the financial situation of the country and somebody comes along and says free college for everybody. what a wonderful person. and they have no idea that it's the distraction of the nation. [applause] i could talk about the economy for a long time. but let me just say before we start the q-and-a, this nation is an incredibly special place because when you look at the founding document the declaration of independence, it talks about a certain

inalienable rights given to us by our creator also known as god. [applause] and anything that's rare for some kind of an idiot. the nations survival is the pinnacle nation in the world i believe is rooted in our value systems, values and principles that made us into a great nation

and the question is are we going to stand up for the values and principles or will we allow ourselves to be intimidated by the secular progressives. they don't care whether you agree with them or not as long as you sit down and keep your mouth shut. and i think that the secret to the prosperity of this nation is we must be willing to stand up for what we believe in. thank you. [applause]

if you would submit a few questions and just grateful for you giving us the time. the moral ground in this country has been shifting dramatically in the last few years. none more via standard issues like marriage. what about where tradition holds values like marriage seem to be the minority. you can use the bully both very effective ways to once again level the playing field. you know, the first amendment is incredibly important. it talks about freedom of religion, not freedom from religion that freedom of

religion, and we have got to encourage all the branches of the government to work effectively with checks and balances. what we have seen recently is the legislative branch which is the branch that represents the people as more or less acting like the peanut gallery which means that the executive branch and the judicial branch are overstepping their boundaries and we are going to have to have a president who's willing to work with the legislative branch to put things back. we need legislation to protect the religious freedoms of people who believe that marriage is between one man and one woman. [applause]

you've proposed the idea of a flat tax eveu've proposed the ia flat tax even likening it to tithing as refers to proportional giving. could you elaborate a little bit more about the flat tax? >> the reason i liken it to tithing is i believe god is the fairest individual and if he thought it was fair i think it must be pretty fair. basically you make $10 billion, you pay a billion. you make $10 you pay one and get the same rights and privileges, hard to be more fair than that and get rid of all the deductions and all the loopholes everybody has been proportionate now. my proposal takes into consideration poverty and at the poverty level you get a rebate but we don't change the system

because the minute you change a system and allow just one crack at it everybody starts moving towards that crack and then every geek pretty soon you have another and wind up with a 7500 page tax code and that's what we don't want. some people say that it's not fair because the guy that's putting a billion still got 9 billion left. we need to take more of his money. that's called socialism. [applause] and then the guy that guy that's putting 1 dollar only had ten some people say that's not fair because he can't afford to put in a dollar. of course he can't afford to put put in a dollar. he can afford to drive on public roads and sent his kids to public school and i can tell you having come from the bottom percentile, i can tell you that people down there also have have

pride and they want to carry their own weight. they don't want somebody patting them on the head. [applause] and then the people see the mortgage to action would have so much more money in their pocket they would be easily a particular mortgage and some say there would be charitable deductions and it will dry out. what they don't realize is there are lots of churches in america before 1913 when the federal income tax went in place and those people have more money in their pockets, they will actually put more money in when the tide comes by. [applause] >> this is one of the main things the students wanted to know and it's interesting that you asked the lord for wisdom and you were saying that in your time with us a few minutes ago obviously a lot of students believe you have a lot of wisdom

to dispense. students want to know if you could get a college student one piece of advice if you could go back to when you were in college and you could go back and say i wish somebody had come in front of me and had undressed me or said this one piece of wisdom to me, what advice would you give? my advice would be proverbs three, five and six. it says trusting the trust in the lord with all your heart, lead both to your own understanding in all your ways acknowledge him and he will direct your path. [applause] i have clung to that for all kinds of adversity in my life.

i cling to it now. many want to bring me down because i represent something that they can't stand. but the fact of the matter is romans chapter eight if god is before you can be against you. [applause] if it's a nobel peace prize winner that comes our way it's always the same question. how can we specifically be praying for you and i want you to know it's not just a cliché spiritual thing we say out loud.

our students really do commit to pray for you and your family. we know this is an incredibly busy time and so how can we be specifically praying for you when we see you on tv and think there is the carson family and the team. why did i get involved in the world of politics? people say the successful -- why did you get involved in politics and i ask myself that, too. but when i got the call to be the keynote speaker. i said what are you up to.

i kept writing things down and i said no that's not it. right up until five for the prayer breakfast when i awakened that morning it was so clear i was supposed to say. and obviously resonated with millions of people and then people started clamoring for me to run for president which i thought was pretty absurd. and i said why would i even be thinking about something like that i'm going to retire and relax with my wife and have fun. but, i said just ignore this chatter out there that will tie down. but it didn't die down. it kept building and building.

and all the political professionals with the carson ran for president, are you kidding me, that's ridiculous. he's not connected to any of the money. he doesn't know anything. he's never been elected to public office. it's impossible. don't even think about it. and i said i'm glad to hear that but it kept going. and i finally said you know this was not on my bucket list but if you truly want me to do this, old bins say it's impossible but nothing is impossible for use with you open the door i will walk through them. [applause]

and he began opening the doors and we were able to put together an incredible team including one is yours alone, dean parker. and in terms of the money they said that's impossible. can't raise that much money. well, interestingly enough, we now have over 900,000 donations from average americans which they never anticipated that we, the people to fund the campaign. they always thought they had to be the billionaires and special interest groups. but the way that it was actually designed is that it should be be the people coming into this designed for citizens, statesman and not career politicians trade and itv that people are beginning to understand that. [applause]

so i am hopeful that the people will pray for courage, stamina, protection for me and my family and for the eyes of the nation to be open to what's going on because the problems that we have in this nation are not republican problems were democrat problems. they are problems that affect all of us and we have to recognize that one of the goals of those that want to fundamentally change the nation is to pull the nation apart. and they've created the perceptions that there is a war on women that every time there

is any conflict between people with two races there is a race for. but there's income or the age for, religious war that the democrats hit republicans republicans, the republicans hate democrats and you keep people at each other's throats. and then we forget what's truly important. what's truly important is our unity. and we have a lot more that unites us than the things that divide us and we must remember this is the united states of america. [applause] >> my wife and i got to be at the prayer breakfast this morning. you are leading were leading

worship at that breakfast and i remember the one thing that everyone at our table continued to agree upon was that you were a man of courage speaking some hard truth even if people in the room that don't necessarily agree with you with the president sitting right next to you at the same time there seemed to be more of a spirit of unity and really the one thing i think we all really about eight about you is your humility and the way you carry yourself so thank you for that. let's all just stand together and pray for doctor carson and his wife and his team and his family. father, thank you lord for a man who understands that leadership begins at the feet of jesus. thank you, father, for this person that you've called out

for such a time as this to be a voice of reason. we pray for stamina for him and his family we pray for margin this season and for courage. we thank you for all of those things bring the very things he wants to see in this country. they bring unity. thank you that we are the united states of america and even though we might not agree on secondary issues that we can come together and recognize the nation if you've been called to do together what we could never do alone and we do look for a leader. if this is the leader that he was called for us we pray that it would be clear to people and we pray against in the pray against confusion and division and we pray that they would be crystal clarity on how to serve your kingdom% of the great citizens of the nation, whoever

that leader is. i think you for the team that you've assembled to meet with doctor carson and we pray for them and give them wisdom and discernment. it's a very busy season. allow him to also be a witness and testimony with the very peers he has running alongside of him. we are grateful for this time that you have given us. we sit under your authority and we pray this in your name. amen. can we put our hands together for doctor carson? [applause] >> there will

>> all persons having business in front of the supreme court give their attention. >> tonight to our country faces a grave danger. with a first possibility first directing the secretary of commerce to take possession and to keep them operating. >> in 1952 the beded states was involved with north korea in a conflict in the steel union had come to a head. >> korean war was hot they needed tanks and jeeps munitions. all those from the second world war i as well.

that was going to be a real problem is tonight to a boy a disruption crucial to the military president truman seized control and as a result of a pending strike was called off in steel production and continued all the fuel companies disagreed with the action into the lawsuit all the way to the supreme court for the we will examine how the with dash with the impact on presidential power. author of the forgotten president's and also for the diversity of chicago called the wartime president.

coming up on the next landmark cases monday at 10:00 p.m. eastern. for background and each case order your copy of the companion book available $8.95 plus shipping at c-span.org d 20 minutes. >> thanks everybody for coming out on this veterans day 2015. welcome to atlantic bottling company. i'm president of atlantic bottling company honored to host everybody here. we are a small family owned company starting to get the business down. we've been in the business for about 106 years now.

it's a lot of fun. we are glad to be in atlantic. it's my pleasure to introduce a couple veterans today and and play with the premise that i didn't recognize my father a pilot in world war ii. [applause] and it's also my honor to welcome the middle of one of their is going to introduce governor bush. so thank you. >> he is a minnesota farm kid and then a year in the course and i went to jail. six year as a prisoner of war and later came home got involved in politics and ran against george mcgovern for the senate and campaign harder than anybody else for me was bush number one

could he was the chairman of the time and was very gracious. when asked if i would support and i said that i will because there is a loyalty but also he's so close we lived in saint augustine florida. how was governor bush when you were here it goes from he's pretty good to use the best one you've ever had is that he has a record of fixing things and doing things. his father was a fighter pilot and he is evidence of his more more and for the more veteran basis, 33 i think it is and he's the only governor i know of that anytime a person was killed in the current war he would personally contact the family. i'm proud to be here supporting him. [applause]

thank you, colonel. he said he believes and nepotism. [laughter] this is a great backdrop for the townhall meeting i appreciate you coming out on a national holiday first and foremost i want to ask all of us to show our appreciation not just for mr. tyler and the kernel the medal of honor recipient, pretty phenomenal but for all the veterans are here today i think we need to give them a round of applause. [applause] i appreciate all of you. i'm running for president because i believe contrary to some that we are on the verge of greatness again. in fact i think in america today there are two competing sets of

pessimism. one on the left suggests that we need to manage the liabilities and get in line and accept the fact we can't grow the economy at a rate any more than we used to release to accept the fact month you were going to live in poverty. life isn't fair. we have to accept the fact the declining income for the middle class and on our side we have a similar pessimism that the end is near and i think for our country to succeed and for the party to win when we have to offer a compelling alternative which suggests is a vision of how we could improve things and fix our tax code and shift power away from washington and fix the mindnumbing regulations that make it harder and harder for people to rise up, recognize we are all getting older together and our demography is changing because of it. that's a blessing but the fact

is we have to change the social contract to preserve and protect for those who have it now and assure that it exists going forward. all of these require leadership, the kind of leadership i got to show when i was governor and the state in florida. of florida. i believe we are on the verge of greatness but it's time to start fixing problems and covers the message i try to get last night in that debate and that's the message i wake up each and every day thinking about. it's possible that we fix these things it's not the most difficult thing our country has gone through and 56 washington, d.c.. i believe we should have a balanced budget amendment to force the conversation of government living within its means. please clap. [applause] i think we need to make sure that when elected officials finished their service they don't bother back and start

walking. there should be a six-year ban. there should be full to school sure it's not that they do bad things but because people don't see it because there's no transparency they think the worst and they don't have confidence in elected officials are serving they think that they are the masters and in many cases sadly that's the case. i think that people when they show up off to work. i don't understand why that is such a complex thing. [applause] we had an interview today with a detroit talk show host and he said why the heck did you not be considered for the nfl job cuts what they think is the best in the world and i said i loved being considered for this is the third -- it was my eighth year on the job but i have nine more months to go. it didn't even cross my mind i would leave early. i put my hand on the bible when i was governor in the state of florida to uphold the law and the anatomy that meant to me that it was from the beginning to the end.

i had a countdown clock. ever see one of those clicks it starts backwards by seconds. anytime i watch for the officer walked through the officer was like i better get going so the last four years of my time from the beginning all the way back to zero dot 12:00 on the first tuesday in january of 2007 it always reminded me that this was about service. people in government should serve rather than dictate and so i did each and every day and it was the greatest experience of my life and to remind you you can move the needle. it's a sign of strength not weakness to be able to serve people. i just published a book called reply all and it's a book about my e-mails and i described my service through the e-mails. people who don't let me have it. some people were not too happy about the governor but i gave up

my e-mail out my e-mail address and probably have half a million e-mails between receiving and giving. e-mails like a lady that sent me an e-mail from delray beach she said they have a raccoon in my attic were you going to do about it. [laughter] i didn't know that was the job description of the governors of the next morning i called up the city manager of the town and i sent mrs. jones, whatever her name was on just sent send me an e-mail. she said she has a raccoon in raccoon interact. what are you going to do about it. and by noon, the raccoon was out. [laughter] but on a serious note i also learned there is a lot of hardship going on. i will never forget an e-mail i got from a woman that was upset that the child support arrangements but the court had made for her to receive support for her child because her former husband had left the very first month he was supposed to pay you to do it and i got another one and another one and another one and the result was i created

inside the department of revenue a service if you will. a woman whose job it was to fight to make sure children got the support that they deserved and then i realized the whole system didn't work and the net result was we apply technology and change how changed how we went about things and changed the law and increased child support payments by 90%. that is my servant does. they may say i'm the big dog in the room just to get out of the way i will talk you into talk but i think you have to first listened to people and then learn from their challenges and when you learn from their challenges, you apply the things that you know how to do to fix things and i do not that related to education in the child welfare across the board. florida is better off. don't you want a president with a servants heart pics veterans administration? [applause] think about it.

this is an organization of 330,000 employees. it's the largest healthcare system in the world. a bonus management. thousands of people about bonuses for taking people off waiting lists. the assumption was by getting off the waiting list is meant that they got care. the simple fact was they got off the waiting list and they didn't get care and better inside. and millions of dollars went out in the form of bonuses. up until now. three people have been fired. should i be a president i can promise you this. you fiercely support veterans that are supportive of a far better set of services than they

are getting now. you challenge the orthodoxy inside an organization that is protecting their own interests. you make sure that you fight as hard as you can and you can change things i promised you. no promise you. no more building apostles in the va system that started out as 300 million not as $1.9 billion without the appropriations to finish the building. it was the right to choose. if they want to see his or her private doctor why shouldn't they have that right? i talked to veterans all across the country, and sometimes it works. it's so convoluted only in washington does it create all these big readers that cost a lot more and make it harder to get the care that they've earned through service to country. one of the ways we can provide support for the veterans right away is to not degrade the

military anymore. we are not funding the government and the training and the ability to keep them safe. we need the greatest force fighting down to man. if you want to keep the peace and make sure you don't go to war to make then make sure you have military superiority in today is that risk. i pledge to you that i will fix that. [applause] we need a foreign-policy that suggests our friends should know we have their backs at around the world the united states has pulled back. our enemies no longer fear us

and the net result is that we have an uncertain world. could you have ever imagined a caliphate? i didn't know what the term meant literally a year ago. a caliphate the size of indiana garnering energy each and every day because of our inaction. recruiting americans to go fight their fight in the caliphate that is in iraq also recruiting americans to do harm to us here. thousands and thousands of internet exchanges trying to recruit people that had a have a delusional view of the great country of ours. if we are serious about creating growth for people to be looked at in the middle class to get away for the first time we also have to recognize that we need a secure road and safe world. american leadership is not a force for bad things have been. american leadership done the right way creates peace and security into the next president is going to have to rebuild the alliances that have been

tattered at the seams. name a country where the relationship is better today than the day that barack obama was sworn into office. as usual, iowa shows once again they have lots of confirming voters. cuba and iran effectively. ..

>> >> and allow the $2 trillion of cash to come back to our country that will create hundreds of thousands of jobs in this country that we see rising and tom. it is possible to do this. there is the ability to forge consensus across party lines that benefits everybody. and jonathan love to is serving they told us if they

get the tax cut the combined income totals x amount in receive a $2,300 tax break. the middle class on average received it thousand dollars. that doesn't sound like much for the big thinkers of washington d.c. you can do a lot. you can provide bills you would do what you want to do but doo-doos your decision to use the term reagan loved. i love this. they would set up a business there are more businesses closing than starting. in a never before fact that it exists but to simplify the code where washington is not the place where you get your special deal to higher a lobbyist to simplify the

code people set up businesses to restore the entrepreneurial spirit. i know we can do this because i did in florida leading the nation in job growth seven out of 80 years to cut taxes very major to take on the special interest holding people back. 1.3 million jobs were created during those eight years. disposable income away debris $1,300 but hillary clinton gives that the letter and a. she said that openly. he deserves an a for the economic policy. really?

one out of five children is on food stamps in this country today. businesses are closing at a faster rate than they are starting. that may we is the best she can do she is greeted of the curve but that it is an effort. -- is an f. rather than thinking it is a horrible thing to lower energy cost to have lower utility bills betted washington did is it deep disappointment high sustained economic growth requires leadership and a totally different approach to make things happen. those that it with -- the things you're the most

extraordinary country on the face of europe because you're think back bader history on this veterans day. the sacrifice our families have made in the greatest generation and what they did to protect our freedoms with the era of abundance. that's america. in this country needs leaders across the board that love this country with their heart and soul and fight to restore the things that will allow everybody to believe in the american dream and just with the spirit and the joy in the energy to draw people toward the cause. i know for sure america is not that again in line type of country do we were told touched a country get mine in real take care of your type of country we do extraordinary things and you're free to decide how we want to pursue our own dreams.

leading our allies -- the bigger lives of purpose to inspire others mir the bottom up country that is a little chaotic from time to time. we don't like to get in line. i want to restore that america. that has a spirit and a dynamic belief will be brighter than what we have today. if you believe that is the america we can recreate that i hope you'll join my cause. a whole you are involved in the caucus is. i hear it is a beautiful time to go out at night on figure refers. [laughter] i promise i will not let you down. thank you very much. [applause]

>> the country is where it is when you take office. we are where we are. with syria, iran, issues with illegals that we actually have to make a plan for. how do do this by yourself hoodie bring in to get this accomplished? >> whenever we have i looked at it as an opportunity because if you start with the promise -- with the promise it is hard to imagine how you fix it. looking at secretary clinton

when she was asked who her enemies are like all my fantasy the ball team is doing, she said the nra was an enemy then she said i guess the republicans are really my enemy. half of the country. have you solve problems of that type of mentality? person foremost don't assume people disagree have bad motives they might just be wrong if you have to persuade them but you do that respectfully and civility. that is not a sign of weakness. great things happen when you restore trust. the president needs to lead to change the culture in washington focusing on solutions rather a been pushing people down. i am so sick and tired of hearing about how great our

president is and how stupid the people that disagree with him are. that they are in cahoots with death to america crowd. that type of culture of both sides has to stop. second common men and women that have talent and life experience, diversity because that is important. my experience as governor we have a diverse set of principles with great background. ben and women of different backgrounds you have a better answer to a challenge with different views and perspectives for crowhop where political hacks and academics put people that have a subject matter expertise and then tell them

the strategy and the vision to give them the power to have their back there is a problem then it is somebody else's fault office of personnel management is packed their of the dog ate my homework nobody except responsibility lois lerner does herself with the irs nobody still has said that is wrong. my dad i will fix that. we have problems i was governor of california -- florida a child is lost it was heartbreaking my first impulse was on to say that is the investigative workers problem but to say when a child is lost it is my responsibility i am governor. i did not personally lose this child is under my watch so we major that never happened again.

is a much broader question the other thing i would say is you are president you are in the white house it is a pretty good to live you want to bring people together so the story i tell is of republican senator invited by the white house to have dinner with the president said he goes up the elevator to the second floor and that aid says senator you are the first republican he has had dinner with in the residence since he has had present when dash and he's been president of this is the fifth year. think about that first woman president congratulations and you try to get something done you don't thank you could convince that person

how do we forge consensus? what can i do to make it easier in the lincoln memorial the washington monument you're in this incredible place you don't think people of goodwill could find common ground? to do for years this country has been an existence we have had dysfunction than? with get back to where it worked. we were designed to be efficient or orderly but there was always a belief you could forge consensus. first and foremost,.

>> i have to question. >> make it a two-part one question. [laughter] >> social security is always a dip into and health care for the country i believe everybody should have insurance moneys to be gone about a different way. it's been a great questions. those are two questions. if you're interested in the full details jab 2016 is the place to go. we have comprehensive plans i am a policy wonk or a murderer but even the power of ideas you have to be courageous to express your views to defend them even if they are controversial and the subjects are controversial remember paul ryan proposing medicare reform he had some real

looked like him pushing gramm off the cliff? but to your point is already bankrupt we have already borrowed the money. it will be a bankrupt in every way in short order and when that happens it will be double digits for everybody so doing nothing which is the proposal will create major cutbacks i have laid out a reform we raise the retirement age to 70 in the early at 65 then to get progressively one month for every year just as ronald reagan did with tip o'neill but if we raise that benefit level for social security

beneficiaries then right now the minimum benefit level so we create a safety net that is higher for everybody then suppress the benefits for those others than changing the calculation on the beginning benefits for those in the next generation that will make social security solvent. >> a lot of people today are over the retirement age and working. people like to work to keep them active and a lot of people have to work. they have to. the plan i have suggested says if you are about the retirement age you are

working you have to pay the employee portion of the payroll tax which is 6% so instead of continuing to pay into the trust fund that is a group you keep in your own pocket social security was never designed is the system it was supplemental which means we need to get back to private savings as part of this as well. i was in new hampshire last week the gentleman asked about social security he was about 86 or 87 and the sweetest guy in the world and i said when did you retire? he said i don't remember. that about three a month -- three minutes later he said i remember now. 62. [laughter] then he describes something that is important i was a

bad boy witches say regional high the supermarket chain. they had had great 401k he worked there 13 or 40 more years of we need to provide incentives for private savings as well if you ask a small-business person to set up the 401k you have to hire a lawyer and accountant allow secure committing a crime. you cannot prove that they're together so the cost is extraordinary if you are a small business that wants to provide assistance to you cannot afford that contribution than why not provide direct support to those who are working for you? but they could give you a savings of for that is tax deductible obamacare is a

job killer and it is way too complicated giving way to much power to washington d.c. other than that it is great. [laughter] the pre-existing condition could be restored a loving human adults to be under a plan was popular but otherwise it should be you replace with no premium mandates catastrophic coverage where the states decide the editions my plan would save for obamacare subsidies there would be brought back in a defined contribution type of way because of inflation not the growth that we're having now

so the federal government would save hundreds of billions of dollars to allow states to have low-cost alternatives with the focus on catastrophic coverage it is the unlikely event it is not going to your monthly doctor visit or dentist that is prepay to interact with your hair up health care professional insurance needs to be insurance and consumer is being more engaged allowing for health savings accounts with the insurance to make healthy lifestyle decisions the premium dollars you save go into an account to be saved when you do get sick.

because the new economy may be shared you would be surprised to is driving these days they could have three jobs totally customized the insurance system is not designed for them and technology should be a cost drive down not up drugs and medical devices across the board in most places without government involvement think of all the things we have that now cost one-tenth of that with a better quality technology harnessed the right way rollout was to live healthier with wireless technology to tell us when the blood sugar is too high

or the means by which would never the problem is is that the queue to level to send a text message to your doctor or nurse or a spouse but the government makes them harder for that to be harnessed in a way to create dramatic improvement of health care outcomes. >> isf this generation far murkier in cass county. i visited before regarding trade with china. in 2005 congress created the birth of the ethanol industry which is rfs and the weak dollar meant good strong trade with china. iowa is agriculture and the

number one corn soybean states would is critically important to counties and communities and the economy we continue things on a good strong course. whole industry has responded the last 10 years to that demand fell whole infrastructure is built upon that demand whether land value or equipment or land rentals or business is expanding in tallis like atlantic and now we are very worried because the rfs is under scrutiny in under criticism and with the strong dollar our trade is diminishing and we have been hit on both fronts in the whole infrastructure is built into this to rand. i of this generation could

weather a few storms but my son is a sixth generation. >> he is bigger than you by the way. [laughter] >> adoptive for about three minutes. he is a pretty a good kid he actually shaved after harvest this morning. what is george vice to him? he is on the cusp of investing in agriculture he just joined the business so when assured vice envision for iowa agriculture because that affects almost everyone in this river other business or racial restorer downtown iowa is agriculture. >> i appreciate the comment and question.

>> vs hopi support me that is my first advice with corn or soybeans is seeded number one and number two in a united states if prices are up we are third if they are down right now we're second. that is the scale of florida agriculture and i dealt with their risk-taking elements with the hurricanes and tropical storms that greening issue that is wiping out the citrus industry and i think i have an appreciation for the business side is in the heritage cited is a way to protect your culture i know this because i saw firsthand as governor. second to one way to sustain any sector but in particular is ready -- agriculture change the regulatory system

able in search of a problem brinkley there is no problem. this is a rule decided never probably have a huge impact on your business but it defines the federal government's involvement of any federal bader body they could read their drainage ditch that it was never intended. those kinds of rules whether department of labour or epa or the clean power act will have a devastating effect on anybody that needs to produce power we need to be peeled or revamp and shift those back to communities that understand old or agriculture or manufacturing washington is not designed

to do this so re-elect someone that has the skills to dramatically change how we create rules around society go to jeb 26t the proposals on regulation of the most comprehensive and complex that they think would of these the animal spirit of our country but third you need a president that fights for free trade and fair trade for sure but this on the debate states that somehow we will battle the physical walls but protectionist walls you know, the first group to get hurt is agriculture that is the easiest thing to counter. one month ago governor branstad told the dutch ideas had come to the country in an incredible way

to save their by the equivalent of one year's production of soybeans in iowa. that we will have that volume in a 15% premium over the price of one month ago is extraordinary. despite the currency flows as they grow into the middle class will be a market that will create enormous opportunities so you need a president that tears down the barrier to fight for sure to make sure the trade agreements are enforced but not in a way that jeopardize is the economy the very first part of what you said is the part that i am sympathetic with that rules

were established that created billions of dollars of investment and it takes time for that to be fully amortized. a long way the elevators have or the cost but ultimately we have a sugar industry in florida is a huge i never believed in the sugar subsidy per quart of believe it is appropriate to pick winners and losers me to have food security for sure with a minimum commitment but picking winners and losers by protecting one group because they have more clout is not the way america works so ultimately the subsidies are

versions of protections that should be phased out with the recognition you have made commitments as relates to millions of dollars with market access just as it has gone up over the state you can get to the point that ethanol can be competitive as long issue have market access. i do believe these things have to be phased out over a period of time. >>. >> to stop something happening like in a denver hospital? >> congress came up with a good idea. just to think this is america how can this happen?

this is what you expect in argentina. not our country. the solution the best solution is what the army corps of engineers to the construction to get the veterans administration act of the business you clearly don't know what they're doing. with a procurement reform information technology reform to have the army corps to have the subject expertise to give veterans choices to give them a card to broadened powers to see their own doctors and focus on centers of excellence because given the challenges that exist a generation has a different challenge there are two big challenges one is that there are women veterans.

and ptsd that is a lot of challenges and the long-term disabled but then have centers of excellence to allow veterans to have more choices you kill lower cost to really improve outcome. >> on immigration if you advocated with other candidates you have to learn and -- english for pay a fine that is a general statement nobody goes into details. how much money do we talk about?

who pays for these people to learn english? what happens if there is the time limit? >> if i actually wrote a book about this called the immigration and wars. you to probably get at $1.99 on amazon. [laughter] it is not a best seller sold even at that. we detail a full plan to pay a fine something that needs to be collected in the hundreds, not thousands of dollars. most immigrants want to learn english to a band's themselves. they would pay for it. not commit crimes is a deportable offense. and to pay taxes no federal government assistance.

over the extended period of time you earn legal status l.i. she to stay in the country but not gain citizenship with the pragmatic approach if we do nothing we perpetuate it he could have done in the first and second year and nancy pelosi was speaker to use it as a political issue in our guys are reluctant because he cannot be trusted on border security so now the

courts have held that it is constitutional and the law allows the president to have discretion which doesn't allow to say it doesn't come close to that so the courts will overrule him but we need to you get to the point where we solve this problem to make it a positive right now would is a drain on the resources we could create an economic strategy saudia arabia's of doing nothing and of think that works is just as a practical you will violate civil liberties it overwhelms the accords is sounds good on one level.

but i've been the problem solving business i am not talking about how bad things are but i say let's fix these complex things and get on with life. right now we're totally stuck as a nation and i think i can fix it. thanks for the question and for being here. [applause]

[inaudible conversations] >> ladies and gentlemen,. welcome to johns hopkins school for advanced

international studies. we are here today to discuss the great - - a joint project of the policy center as turkey transformed a the origins and the is solmization of the akp party. publishing this report shortly before the november 1st election and it is available on-line. the studies are available on-line there also copies outside her gore want to mention the institute has been publishing also another

statement said is dedicated to environmental issues but i will start with the brief introduction by saying there is no need to talk to mention of bay critical region between central asia and the maturity and. it is important for political and other prospective so it is important of what is happening for turkey itself and also for its neighbors and the united states having interests in that area as

well. we all know the results of the election the president regained parliamentary majority and the results even surprised a seasoned analyst. and the akp is mandated to govern. in favor of stability after the elections it is the oldest on the meeting of the election and what it means for actors all around. we have a distinguished panel of our first speaker

is ideally suited because he holds positions at the policy center. and a distinguished scholar for studies. as well as state undersecretary of defense for 2005 and 2009. one is for the institute. and holds his b.a. degree from university. there is director for foreign policy at the bipartisan policy center. we are fortunate to have to

commentators who are members of the bipartisan policy center task force. a long time turkey observer finally the last but not least senior counsel also the state department of national security advisor to vice president cheney. >> thank-you and let me say at the outset i have to leave a little bit after 6:00. because i have another commitment but i would feel

worse about that if not for the fact i am sitting on a panel with a group of people with whom i have worked on with this for many years. i know the audience will be well served or better served in my absence. monday star with a couple of comments of the report that caused us to write the report and then make a few comments about turkey's prospects post-election. a couple of years ago we did a report that looked at the ideological origins of turkish foreign policy and this is in the context of a form policy that had begun

to enter the prime minister to have no problems and that policy over time had more to into a policy where turkey seem to have problems with all the neighbors and has developed a form policy that was marked by the allegiances of the neighboring region and the initial in junction of problems with neighbors and to prepare that report it occurred to several of us it might be useful to look into the ideological origins of what appears to be driving a greater trent toward authoritarian behavior of

the akp in turkey because because of turkish and foreign policy behavior could not be explained without reference domestically in turkish society so we undertook to write this report it is quite to eliminating a week ago before the election with some of distinguished commentators who i think both agree this as a lot to tell people including those who know a lot about turkey

what we see of the current political circumstance the changes we see going on in the media and in education policy. the paper serves as a useful backdrop to the election and as was mentioned a minute ago i don't think very many observers saw this coming between the june election in the november election to gain about 5 million votes. it went to 40% of the share to about 49 .4%. turkey has a tradition of free and fair elections and it is hard to imagine although there were some

votes it was more significant than usual is hard to imagine 5 million votes were stolen but that being said it is hard to characterize this election as spare. because of the atmosphere of violence and intimidation under which the election campaign took place. i have in mind to the burning of over 200 offices of the kurdish party and the demonstrations by those thuggish elements from the mainstream media outlets and days before the election the

media offices use of tear gas. is hard the the environment that a fair election can take place. not to mention that high a level of violence from what we would see in the 1980's that makes it very difficult to imagine a fair election being held in the southeast. where a large number reside. is in light of that where to find ourselves facing? although this victory was not perceived by others there must have been 30-year 40 polls taken between june and in november and not one predicted this outcome. the highest of any poll was 47% that was an allied air among the poll's. it tells you even without

large victory the prime minister and the president had received 49 percent of the vote and that indicates turkey is a deeply divided society. and what that requires to roof turkey for word to be the society of that democratic pluralistic partner that we need to be in vendee of the spirit of reconciliation of differences with the emphasis of peaceful reconciliation and a concern for pluralism and tolerance rather than the overheated rhetoric over the last

couple of years. that is what the prime minister by qc but i am fearful that is not the result very likely to see. those papers to which i have referred have been won the election and his opponents lost he could govern in any way he sees fit. edits likely to carry turkey further of greater polarization or perhaps worse unless the trend is arrested.

i'm afraid it is hard to see him approaching this in any other way. that makes it incumbent to make clear publicly and privately to attach freedom of expression to the rule of law for a fair regard of turkish opinions to be a guiding force of the turkish government's policies rather than the efforts to eliminate criticism and paints opponents with a broad brush as supporters of terrorists and that is what i hope to see all though i

am not sanguine about that either. >> the queue ambassador for your comments i take the starting point than the of retrospect that the akp stood for when they came out on the political scene. of course, that had broken from the islamist movement and embraced membership in the e.u. and democracy and promised to break the system that existed in turkey to produce a true liberal democracy. in the post of 11 period what could be better than

what the akp promised to be? and did what they have developed is the new turkey project with the western observers or the liberals believe in maybe entering for this election period with the capital of the city to shoot water cannons to hindering the first responders from coming to the scene. so space the with the new turnkey project is go into some detail chronological

the to deepen the authoritarianism in the process of exhilarated islam as asian. my colleagues will speak of the authoritarian elements but and it is a fair point. is not that level of authoritarian as of but that old system isn't on the individual persons but it was rather predictable into a considerable degree you can disagree with those laws and most did but it was in

china with the national security council and everything that existed but now a is a different type of system centered around one individual. that makes it much more unstable because even with 317 seats in the parliament he is not the position to achieve the system he has said is defacto to change the constitution and to reflect. he is governing in a way that is completely different from the one turkey is mandating. so the institution was asian -- institutional was asian but with that is solmization that most secularists are

calling but that did not seem to have been but after the 2011 elections we see clear change acceleration of the process. there has ben a massive reversal of the secular reforms of the system in the late 90's with a great assertion into the regular school system but with the rebuilding of a school run under the supervision of the foundation. and in this process we see the transformation of regular schools against the wishes of the people and greasy and education system that pushes people into the

system from the regular school system in turkey. the second element is the state directorate for religious affairs. end you can ask if there are many things are planning to do is an accordance with the

islamic laws. whether lotteries are legal or celebrating the new year or read a paper is in conformity are issues. that does not carry any legal weight but that is noteworthy. there is also a massive expansion of forces under the akp route they used to be available only for children under -- over the age of 12 but for those facilities the training of teachers to change the situation. but now we very clearly see how that was supportive of

the policies of the government. there is also an increasing stock of the organization to the role of women and the increasing role of cry me capitalism in and of course, as the ambassador has mentioned the policy like libya aware turkey is supportive of jihadi groups. to understand why this is happening very often alienated turkey to see them

focused the basically it is more and more unstable than somebody else from the akp but then rebut that have this problem. not that if the nature was wrong but something else was wrong all along the way. but the ideological bolick -- it is what it is consistent with your seeing played out consistent a.

that movement from which it came is much more radical and it is true and it is an important point the tradition in turkey refrains from being violent. but we see those ideas that are propagated very quickly the three routes to put this movement to bring alien inspiration with that turkish islam into the turkish mainstream without the in words but being spiritual order but it is

very extremely political. so that is first ideologically but the turkish the interest in the 1920's and '30's if you look at what they believe there were highly inspired by the european ideologies in the '30's particularly those first ideologies passionate opponents of the west. that third element of the tradition that was very influential from the sixties onward in the turkish islamic movement. . .

and that they needed the ottoman empire and in principle you come away with the understanding that not only is everything jewish bad that everything bad in the world is jewish.

it deeply colors the entire movement now course the akp was born out of a breach of this islamic movement and we found the study the akp never did leave islamism behind intellectually. the real changes or rebranding as we call it that took place among islamic intellectuals and politicians about a big akp didn't occur when the akp was created. it started with a creation of the party which preceded the akp created after 1997. where the akp gehman was derivative fair can in the old guard which was a block in the process of their political ambition and occurred after the party was closed down by the court.

we discussed in great detail how this process of rebranding was very technical in nature and is important to note he was actually after the coup of 1997 embrace the e.u. and embrace the issue of applying to the european court for redress against the closure of the party magically in this book published in 2014 there is nothing about the e.u. and nothing about democracy. as if it had never happened to the hard-core islamist ideologies of the 1960s and 70s. and in principle i think what you are left with, the conclusion is that the rebranding of the akp never went to the core issue. that is it never went to the core issue that the islamic movement in turkey and the people who very much are today remain the decision-makers in the akp had a worldview that

remained based on a delusional conspiratorial worldview. and therefore i think there is a linear link actually between the consolidation of the akp and a return to the hard-core islamist ideas and values that were part of the islamist movement in turkey in the 1960s and 1970s. looking at the june election we found that erdogan was everywhere in rallies, on posters and the defeat of the akp in june was in fact people saying no to the idea of a presidential system and off author -- authoritarian system but what you find in the november election you don't find erdogan at rallies. you don't find erdogan on posters. the akp try to present itself as a party and not as a vehicle for one single individual ambition and i think that's one of the reasons why the akp exists and was successful in this election. people voted for the party and

for civility but not for erdogan. that of course doesn't change the fact that erdogan will push the presidential system but i think with the conclusion to our study more importantly whether or not he succeeds in having constitutional backing for a system that in practice is lardy existing he will have at least four more years impact on turkey and make it irreversibly more middle eastern country but a more polarized an unstable country that it -- then it was when on egypt took power. >> thank you svante. >> thank you. alfred whitehead said the tradition of western philosophy consisted of footnotes to plato which is one of the reasons i decided to study philosophy. i could do plato and be done with it but in the same way what i have to say looking at footnotes to the presentations

it's hard to read about turkey today without seeing the word authoritarian pop pop up and it's hard to ignore what's been happening in turkey for the last an app years without coming to the conclusion that there is a departure from democracy beginning with the gassy park protest in may of 2013 that were met with a brutal police response followed by the december 17 investigations into corruption and the prosecutors who brought the charges and the police forces responsible were dismissed. it became clear that then prime minister and now president erdogan called the shots in turkey but the purpose of this paper was to examine the nature of authoritarianism more deeply and ask where does it come from what is its nature was a structure, how is being implemented and why it matters. i think on the first the

argument we make in the paper is all of the trends we are seeing in turkey today are not the more result of something that mark is what happened in 2013 and not the result of the break the erdogan had and also purely personal ambitions and not party wide objectives as svante laid out. the really trace the akp's ideology back to erdogan which is an authoritarian ideology. if you look at the structure of the various parties said erdogan lead over his political tenure they were authoritarian and structured with erdogan being the leader and therefore it's not surprising that is what we are seeing manifesting and as the party that is the inheritor of that tradition. there is a question of how has this, out and the argument that

we put forward is that the democratic movement that you see in 2002 and 2003 when the akp is first elected which actually earns auditions from western leaders that this is a democratic party that will maybe solve the democratic deficit is really actually the entrée in some ways to the authoritarianism that we see today. in order for the akp to stay in power to avoid a state that the predecessors had met and the coup that forced everyone from power attempts the predecessors predecessors -- though still being fresh in people's minds and the akp's mind they could stay in power without being meddle with. the first step towards that was clearing the underbrush and clearing the threads to the rule which is primarily the military

which is what we see in 2006, 2007 in 2008 with a sledgehammer case. the allegations of coup plotting terrorism with the military journalists. and you see basically the akp completely swing the pendulum and the other way and become a mirror image. first they were the outsiders trying to clear away the established institutions of the state that might oppose them and suddenly they become institutions of the state and they try to clear away the social and economic institutions that might oppose them so what you really see in turkey is this authoritarianism on two levels. one is the institutional -- the institutionalized -- deinstitutionalization that svante mention in the concentration of power and erdogan's hands and doing away with the checks and balances and separation of power, rule of law that is meant to shield the use of power so you see a tinkering

in the 2010 constitutional referendum and the last two years with the laws that govern the body that controls how it judges and prosecutors are pointed so suddenly you start stacking the courts essentially allowing erdogan to dig tape who the judges are and how decisions are made to abc rule of law separation of powers. the media regulatory body which leads to some of the invasions of media freedom that ambassador adelman mentioned in the second level of authoritarianism i see is really the elimination of possible sources of opposition and a closing and up civil society both in terms of media freedoms as we saw dramatically in the lead-up to the election and the imprisonment of journalists in and the targeting of journalists. some of this being done through the government means through

legal means but a lot of it being done extra legally with mob showing up in opposition, newspapers sometimes led by government entities and party mps but not in any sort of official capacity and ransacking those offices of mobs showing up and ransacking political parties offices. and you also see this in economics which svante briefly mentioned where you see a crony capitalism emerged where contracts are a means both of enriching supporters of the government as well as the parties enriching itself but also pushing up from the economy and access to wealth to being able to own media companies and mount opposition. anyone who doesn't agree so you really see a systematic authoritarianism on those levels

of the government but also within civil society, the media and the economy. the question of why this matters as svante said it's about stability. turkey has multiple crosscut cleavages. often we tend to talk about the akp as sort of the socially conservative for the pious or secularist or kamala's versus the pious but it's much more than that. you have the sunnis versus the dash and the turks versus the kurds. worse than that i think what you have seen between june and the november election is that they really hardened in a way that appears difficult to reverse at this point. going into the june election there's a lot of optimism specifically around the possibility that the akp in the kurdish card he might cross the threshold for the first time and

also always moderate making each power. the possibility of a sense of change and the democratic process. a lot of the members of the opposition that sense of hope evaporated by the time the november election came around. it seemed apparent that president erdogan were willing to take the country to the brink of war and destabilize the country to make the argument that they could wring stability back and it would be the right choice. the other reason this matters in washington erdogan's antics are seen as a electoral strategies. turkey has had four elections and last two years so it's often very easy to say they are just shutting down youtube and twitter because they need to do

this before the election but after the election don't worry everything will come back. he's just cracking down on the currency before the election but after the election don't worry everything will change. first of all we haven't seen that in the multiple times we have heard this would happen it hasn't but secondly there's a circular logic here where we say we shouldn't worry about erdogan's authoritarian smc gets what he wants but for the elections he won't resort to that. as svante said it's to create this authoritarian system that he's not shy talking about it more effectively trying to persuade ourselves that it torit. some is displaying now once -- will go away once he has the opportunity to display or authoritarianism which seems a little circular so paying attention to the ideology and objectives that are driving erdogan in the party understand

where the country will be going in the future. thanks. >> thanks. i guess much of what there is to say about the election and the outlook has been said so i will do my best to make it interesting. you know for me, i should say erdogan was on somewhat of a losing streak even though he was always coming in first in the elections. i think akp did worse than expected in the local elections in 2014 in the presidential election he got just under 52%. to essentially nobody's. he emerges a significant

political heavyweight in many ways but he was essentially unknown at the time of the presidential election. akp lost its majority in june. and i guess to me this election showed erdogan so much for the midas touch in politics that he had had previously. it took some guts to roll the dice. maybe he didn't have much choice because he was frightened of not having a majority, but nobody expected a success and he did succeed. i think also and i'm not sure if it was svante or blaise that

alluded to this i guess he showed a little bit more flexibility than i expected and survey show after the last election that both his presence, his very shrill campaigning for akp and his emphasis on a presidential system which remains not very popular. the overwhelming majority of turks oppose it. those two elements actually heard akp so what did he do? and you know for somebody we tend to think of them as such a test that he wouldn't be able to do this but it largely kept himself out of the campaign in november and you didn't hear much about the presidential system. so he showed actually to me surprising tactical flexibility.

i want to say one thing. a lot of negative things have been said about the polls in turkey for good reason. there was actually a great cartoon that somebody sent me. i have to share with you. i think it will mean something to those of you who are familiar with turkish politics anyway. it shows the leaders of the three losing parties sitting around and grumbling about how terrible the polls were and how they missed it entirely and they are all saying yeah how can those pollsters stayed there? they all ought to resign. alluding to the fact that turkish party leaders virtually never resign. there is one poll that i think, i think something positive has to be said about it. i think they primarily do market research. they are the only ones who have done something close to exit

polling in turkey which are the polls right after, the day after the elections. they are the june 8 pole. it had over 20% of mh p. voters saying that if they had known how the election would turn out that they would have voted for it akp. and i think i don't know how good the poll list. i can't vouch for it. i'm not here to advertise for it at either erdogan -- erdogan pulls most of them showing something similar because on day one after june 7 the pro-government papers were all saying the solution is a new election. likely a new election. i was before any of and if the politicians had said anything so he obviously believes the kind of results that came out of that i think that already created the

base of voters for akp, which he built on to his victory in november. he knows there was already significant chunk of voters who were unhappy with a hung parliament and were going to vote for him for the sake of a majority. now, i do see it like i do many commentators have said this is was a vote for stability and if those polls which by the way is only in turkish at this point but for those of you who have forward and mentoring knowledge of turkey -- turkish it's pretty easy to read. even i could read it. i had some very interesting bings in it but look i think although the boat was for stability i think what the turks are going to reap is a great deal of instability and here i will just kick off a lot of

things that have already been said. it's clear that erdogan sees this vote as an affirmation of his policy so i think we can expect that he will continue to push the presidential system. there are party ben indications from his advisers that they intend to push along those lines in the now he is 13 votes short in parliament of having enough votes to pass a constitutional amendment that could be brought up for referendum but given some of the past cooperation between akp and the nationalist mhp i wouldn't be shocked to see him call those extra votes from mhp. and even though should take it

to a referendum right now roughly 70% of turks say, and this is again from this recent poll after the november election say they favor a parliamentary system but once the campaign for a referendum were involved, i mean who knows what would happen because akp has many levers and erdogan is very influential. i think we'll see the presidential system. we are going to see a continuation of the war on the pkk. at any rate the pkk has what i think as a plunder the kurdish cause. it says that it's temporary cease-fire is over. we are likely to see a crackdown on universities.

there are new regulations passed early before the election that gives the higher education council the right to take over universities. media, it's the worst era really that i can remember and my memory goes back a long way. and just some of the recent things. just to highlight and now they have been said already because the police storming the building and just taking the tv stations off the air and the newspapers were taking over and the next day they flipped 180 degrees editorially. >> were 360 degrees as the prime minister would say. i think one of the most disturbing things and maybe there are some in the audience who can provide some context, i don't remember anything like this. there are been nearly three of

the cases of journalists and others who have been indicted, arrested find for insulting the president. the laws on the books. i don't remember it ever being invoked quite so often. i do remember senior officials in turkey filing libel suits including president o. zell many years ago but it's an almost foolproof way of getting people to shut up. the cracked down will obviously continue and i just want to emphasize one point with this election. as many of you know in advance a corruption case was opened

against many akp associated people followed by a series of leaks of recordings which would implicate erdogan himself. much of subsequent turkish political history i think we can say until november 1 has probably been about the president trying to avoid those charges coming to him. some people would argue that's actually why he insisted on becoming president because it's much harder to get to a president. it takes three-quarters vote for impeachment, otherwise he is basically beyond the law. some would argue that's why he wanted to, why he needed a majority government because even a coalition government might have been difficult for any non-akp party not to vote in favor of pursuing these

corruption charges. now he's insulated from most charges and i think that story is pretty much over. so i think there is going to be some tough times ahead. not to mention the economy has been struggling. i will say a couple of things about the united states. is there some silver lining? well, you know i'm trying to be objective. perhaps from the u.s. point of view the fact that we have been using an agreement with what was an interim government that wasn't akp dominated government since late july. i guess this likely assures we will continue to use it in the fight against isis.

perhaps if chp had been part of the government there would have been any interruption but chp has its elements and chp has its own cut about syria in the united states. maybe there would have been some complications another walmart. when we fight a war winning that war tends to dominate all aspects of our policy and that's understandable. i think it's going to be the dominant element. in our turkey policy in the days ahead but i would echo what ambassador edelman said it's extremely important to continue to focus on the freedom deficit in particular and the repression of freedom of expression. in turkey. i say continue because i would say despite her sticky jeepneys in turkey we have made some

important statements. we are going to have to keep that out front and i think the first test of how we are going to balance that are important test will come this weekend. president obama will be in turkey for the g20 summit and i will tell you at the previous g20 summit he seemed to try to evade prime minister erdogan with whom he once had a close relationship since 2013 has not. it's very difficult to evade your host and i think it will be very interesting to see how the president balances. appreciation for the fact that we are able to use turkish bases in the fight against isil with a very deep concern about the lack of freedom and the declining freedom in turkey and i will leave it there.

>> thank you. >> okay, thank you. i will try and be quick because i know we want to leave time. maybe ambassador edelman will be here for a few minutes and maybe people can ask them some questions. i would just underscore what allen said. as much as i don't like it i think this really, this election really did highlight erdogan's erdogan's -- turkish politics. whatever people thought about june 7, that was going to be the dagger to the heart to put an end to the erdogan reign over turkish politics and the aftermath of what happened november 1 to think we have to say was at most a stumbled and he remains a giant in his ability to manipulate, to

intimidate, to threaten, to persuade, to inspire and demagogue the turkish public to serve his own political ends. i think it's without parallel in the turkish system and that certainly was the case with the amazing five-month period to have gone from that stinging rebuke in june to as everybody has said to the stunning victory on november 1. none of the experts and certainly not the pollsters predicted this resounding overwhelming victory by the akp and its return to majority rule. although more of an earthquake because it was so unexpected and unpredicted. except perhaps for president erdogan himself. as allen said he was the one that from the start said we are

going to scuttle these coalition talks. we are going to go to new elections. if he took advantage of the assassination of the two policemen in july, seized on a provocation and basically handed the peace park riot -- peace process and we launched full-scale -- against pkk and as my colleagues have said it was he who decided that he was going to double down on crushing all forms of dissent inside of turkey particularly in the media and i mean really astounding cases of repression of the media as well as political opponents, particularly within the kurdish dominated h. e. p. -- hdp so this was a systematic strategy

as blaise has preferred to buy erdogan of manufactured chaos, manufactured instability, violence and intimidation to essentially to scare the turkish people into revisiting the results of june 7, and returning the akp tube monopoly power because if they didn't basically it was as much a threat as a promise that things could get very -- much much worse and faced with a situation in which stability was the question inside of turkey, i think their only choice was to return to akp to power. they felt the majority of the voters felt that was their only option was a strong akp government. and it was a miraculous result when you think about what he did his strategy was clearly, he had

to whip up some level of national hysteria and went back nationalist voters and he got them hp to back the akp. at the same time he needed to depress the hdp vote and the kurdish vote and take so many voters away and he succeeded spectacularly on both accounts. mhp loss 40 seats and i'm assuming most of them went to akp and hdp lost more than a million voters i think who were overwhelmingly kurdish voters such as think about what he did. one at the same time he won over millions of anti-kurdish right-wing nationalists and won over close to a million conservative kurdish boats. that's quite an extraordinary feat to be able to thread that needle, but he did it and again

i think it underscores his mastery of turkish politics. what does it mean from here? i agree with my colleagues, i think it's bad news. i think the erdogan will see this as a vindication, as a mandate to continue doing what he's doing that this policy worked and that in fact whatever narrow window of opportunity exists on june 7 to begin dialing back the trajectory towards the door. -ism in turkey erdogan made sure over the last five months that he was going to slam it shut and my guess the next four years until the voters go to the polls again he's going to make sure it's nailed shut and democracy and her wisdom and human rights and freedom of the press my gas are all going to suffer tremendously. i think he will push this notion of an imperial presidency

whether the turkish people want it or not. i think he will figure out a way to get it and if it means dominated not just 70% of the media in turkey as he does now if it requires him dominated 90% or 100% i think that's what he will do. and if he needs 13 other parliamentarians outside of the akp to be able to go to a constitutional referendum on an executive presidency i think with the political winds at his back, with all of the powers of the state in his command including all the coercive powers and all the incentives that the state can potentially provide to these parliamentarians, i think 13 seats is not a high hurdle or a big obstacle for him to work on over the course of next year in order to get that referendum. the peace process with the kurds , again i'm not sure but

the fact is that pushing the peace process i think he will look back and say it cost me votes. it cost me both greater costs may nationalist votes. i think this election underscores how important a right-wing nationalist constituency is to his ability to consolidate power. i think that is a lesson he will take and reaching out to the kurds looking like i was pursuing a settlement hurt me. in fact over the last five months increased tensions, increased conflict, increased violence with the kurds, that got me november 1. that's the path to go. maybe not full-scale war. the cost of that politically economically in terms of how far investors look at turkey that could be not a place he wants to go but the thought of low-level tensions, continued simmering conflict, my guess is that is

what we are likely to see, a continuation. in syria, we will see but i think this attitude on the kurdish question this increased sense of being able to play the nationalist card of seeing kurdish aspirations as a threat and even a mortal threat to turkey's territorial integrity, i think that could spill over onto the syrian front and particularly the kurdish question inside of syria. i think the fact that increasingly it looks like u.s. strategy is growingly dependent on the syrian kurdish y. p.j. the militia there which isn't that closely aligned with the pkk inside of turkey, the u.s. is really holding on tuesday will y. p.j. as an integral ability to fight isis on the ground including being able to

put pressure on it's capital in raqqa which must be one of the main lines of our operations there. secretary carter has recently said in testimony i think that clearly and the turks have said that is a major major problem for them. even perhaps a red line, the notion of abutting u.s. ypj alliance on their border is something that they have said they cannot tolerate. up to now we have seen isolated incidents of some artillery, some airstrikes by turkey on ypj positions across the border but i think that's something to watch and no doubt hopefully this weekend and early next week and when the person doesn't talk to erdogan trying to reach some better understanding about where we are headed on syria is going to be very important including what they are going to do or not do with the way pg.

the way pg has the tip of the spear fighting isis then what is the answer? who else is going to do it? what is turkey going to do? it's certainly not the answer that turkey has had so far which is essentially to empower the non-isis radical jihad is across the border. that's no answer for the u.s. government. that's not a serious alternative to what we are trying to do on the ground against isis and now there's this question of what skin is turkey willing to put in the game? subtle hints or not-so-subtle hints that they will give very serious that they have a coalition that they can work with. they don't put sonogram. are they prepared to go in and put boots on the ground in a police state sewn inside of syria? we will see you. that's a question worth pursuing but i don't think it's going to be an easy discussion and there are real potential landmines

between us and the turks now over serious. i'm not at all sure that this election makes it any easier to resolve. in some ways it may make it even tougher because of where erdogan and the turkish military is on the question right now of the kurds. believe me there are -- there is no doubt a lot of turks that are fighting inside of syria with a ypj in the turks have said if there are u.s. weapons to go to sub tan that end up inside turkey being used against turkish security forces that will be a real diplomatic crisis between united the united states and turkey. there are a lot of things moving now that could point us in that kind of direction. i think that's something we will very much want to head off. i would finally say stepping back to the larger picture here for me is that i don't know how narrow the window was but i do

think it was a window that was opened after june 7. in which turkey may have had a chance to actually begin to put the brakes on this in juggernaut of erdogan hurtling towards a more authoritarian future for turkey. i think we probably will look back in retrospect and see this election on november 1 as a real hinge point for the country where did face a chance to go and perhaps two different directions. there may have been an off ramp for them off of the superhighway of erdogan towards putinism with the nasty islamist twists to it. i think they thought about it. they thought about it a second time. they may have changed their mind and didn't take that exit and now it's in their rearview mirror and may have ended up in the express lane to some form of

turkish putinism. and getting back to that exit from this very bad trajectory is going to be very very difficult and erdogan is going to make it very difficult if not impossible to have that kind of exit ramp and 2019. i think that will be a singular strategic purpose of his, to make sure that he doesn't have to go through the kind of experience he went through june the seventh ever, ever again. so on that cheery note. >> thank you. thanks to all for a substantive discussion. i refrained my comments to use the time that we have left for questions from the audience. we will start here with dan.

>> daniel, m. professor here at sites. i would like to hear a little bit more about countervailing forces. you mentioned the courts but we have heard little about the military as a potential countervailing force of the business community. the opposition political party. democracy doesn't happen because people are nice to each other. there is some sort of force that works against it. if you could please keep answers short so we could have more questions coming. who wants to start? >> there are countervailing forces but i don't think they are powerful enough. you mentioned the military.

they are a speculate about what the military is thinking. i think it's clear that erdogan wants the military on his side. and the military is an opaque institution but i think as much as we can see into it, they strongly support the idea of going after the pkk. they see the pkk is a greater threat than is isis and they see way pg -- ypj and pkk is more or less the same. i think they feel this way enough that maybe it's not even completely clear who was driving the policy more but i think erdogan and that military are probably more or less in lockstep on this. i think there are other issues where they can put the brakes on and they have but the brakes on but i don't think it's about

domestic politics. its foreign-policy. there was a rumor about two months ago that turkey was about to send land forces into syria. it's wrongly opposed by the turkish public. every poll has shown that. according to all reports and that's all we have to go by, the military said we are not going to do it. i think the military never lost total power in turkey and i'm not sure. i may be in the minority on this. obviously with all the officers that were arrested, they were hurt badly. they certainly lost their ability to affect domestic politics, but they have in certain ways retain their autonomy and when it comes to the use of them they are decisive. they are not going to -- and our

system the military might say mr. president this is a difficult operation. i'm not sure we can do that if the president says do it our guys will salute. i don't think in turkey the military has ever been like that even in its lowest moment. by the way the military has resisted in other ways too. the military system is still in advance. they control their own educational system. there was an effort and was publicly announced by the government at one point that they wanted graduates of these state-sponsored parochial schools that svante mentioned, to be eligible for acceptance into military academies. there was a big fight that they would be eligible for regular universities. the military said no.

so it's not 100% to nothing but when it comes to domestic politics i don't really see. that did business community maybe doesn't like erdogan so much that they are are a lot of people this so-called anatolian tigers who are significant factor. they are very much supportive of them. >> any comments? >> i would say one -- what countervailing forces there are are -- if they even want to be. it's not clear if they want to be involved but if they would have wouldn't be democratically. the big businesses that allen mentioned a lot of the lead in turkey are deciding to leave to aid rather than continuing to

live under the erdogan system where their liberties are going to be forsaken. among the kurds one of the stories that hasn't really been discussed is the radicalization of the kurdish youth in some of these towns where there is lots of fighting between security forces and kurdish youth. they were not members of the atk train to the congo mountains. there are local views have been radicalized by what was going on. again that's not a very democratic process. the one place that might be able to say that there is countervailing force emerging is the person that allen mentioned, the coleader of the sub 10 -- ypj. erdogan his frame much limited

by the politics of this his party even though he aspires to be a national party. on one hand he is a danger, perceived as a danger to erdogan and now he's perceived as a danger to pkk. i think one of the things i learned when i was in turkey recently as so many people want him dead than if he were to be assassinated i would even know who to suspect. >> thank you. first of all i would like to commend this panel and the position of the bbc for providing such an accurate assessment about what's happening in turkey so thank you for maintaining that position. it's a juror resource. one rumor following the g20 that they might actually see immediate aftermath.

i guess my question is directed to john hannah. and i wish ambassador edelman were still here. from that perspective the decision-makers in the room we are going to be dividing the presidents, it's nice that we are talking about erdogan took the brakes off and this is a dangerous regime. is anybody going to bias the president saying we shouldn't mess with these guys or who are we doing business with? erdogan has the united states and europe over a barrel with a lot of things. he has managed to pull a lot of levers and the plastic politics. is it the case that is going to be able to do this at the international level? is anybody going to say dan this is not acceptable? >> i think it's a good question by the way he is one of our great diplomats on turkey. ambassador homes that does a lot

and i would say no, my guess is not. i think there is a sort of sobering reality that hit the obama administration about what they are dealing with in turkey which actually took a very long time for people in this town to realize. or we had to study back in 2002, 2003 to understand what we were dealing with. i think it was an awful lot of wishful thinking about where erdogan in the akp would take turkey and i think we are learning that now that we have developed strategies to do what we could to put backstops in support of turkish democracy and freedom of the press and the rule of law and all the things we care about. i think at the end of the day in the long-term it's vital for having a serious stable partner

and a nato country. but i think allen is right at the end of the day especially now in the context that we are dealing with in the middle east today where there seems to be something of a regional melt down underway which this president has in fact launched a war against this terrorist organization and which we are getting some modicum of support now from the turkish government. i think he has manipulated that quite successfully. i have no doubt the decision to grant us access to those bases was very much tied and that the service of his own domestic agenda with an eye toward what he wanted to do vis-à-vis the pkk and to buy some level of u.s. acquiescence and silence. in the same way i have almost no

doubt that what happened all of a sudden after several years of this conflict is a rush of people i've turkey into europe creating this kind of crisis on europe's doorstep was so used to say no accident comrade. i do believe there was some level of manipulation there that erdogan does have his hands on the tap so to speak with regard to this refugee crisis. very much understands it's using this as leverage now in his dealings with both europe and the united states and the west. if they want to have any hope in solving this crisis, not to mention the broader crisis in syria, is difficult to partners turkey has been the hope of getting a settlement without turkey somehow involved are slim to none and this crisis gets much worse if that requires you

to lower your voice and look away if from the moment regarding basically the dismantlement of the turkish democracy and turkish rule of law, so be it. these guys are out of office another 15 months anyway and it will be somebody else's problem to deal with. for them i think they will say listen we need to do with them under these difficult regional issues and they can manage the nature of internal turkish politics. unfortunately, think it will come back to bite us at some point. >> turkey's strategic import has has -- importance is always covered a multitude of sin and i don't think, that's no different now. we need turkey for the war against isis. as long as we feel they are not going to change but i did want to qualify a little bit for

comments that have been made that the administration has been saying anything. i think they have actually, i've been surprised to be honest with some of the strong statements if you go back and look at press briefings. they have been very tough on turkey, on freedom of expression , and also following the election, the u.s. government did not congratulate akp. it's very unusual in a landslide like this. we said we are waiting for the official vote which always comes out of turkey every 10 days, 10 days after the election. but we won't speculate on the result. we are the only ones in the world who wouldn't speculate on but the results were. that was a clear message that we were very unhappy about the

human rights situation and the fact that the campaign had taken place under situation of great opposition. i think we have to be fair to the u.s. government. >> this has been an excellent panel. i wanted to ask ambassador edelman a question. he is gone so i will pitch this this -- pitch this to the whole panel. you mentioned turkey has many cleavages and if you set aside religion and recall the akp came to power on the promise of economic governance the economy is slowing. what is the long-term or near-term implications of this for erdogan and the atp?

>> do we have an economist around the panel? i think for a long time other institutions have less of a turkey has the most at risk emerging economy and you have seen overlong period of time tensions within the turkish government where erdogan was more interested in populous moves in did like the independence of the central bank and wanted to lower interest rates. there was a resistance from the professionals, people in government like -- who is back in some capacity. we will see what happens but it seems to me the more erdogan capitalizes on this position of power that's not good news for the management of the economy and moreover right now the way

the consolidation of power the crony capitalist type of economy that erdogan is building from 2010 to today is really off the rails compared to what it used to be. i don't see that changing. if anything it's likely to get worse which means the conditions for real economic downturn in turkey are certainly there. there needs to be a trigger of some form, and are internal or trigger. another election could then that trigger and i think they spread that propaganda which has also helped them with the election. the question is what would happen if there was an economic downturn? many people in turkey say the only way we can get rid of erdogan is find economic crisis. i don't think it would actually work that way. think would hasten the system menu but push back any very repressive way.

>> hi everybody. i'm a senior fellow for the stability institute. a couple of you have touched upon this but i want to go back and look from the eyes of the voters in turkey. try to understand why they gave erdogan a majority, a resounding majority. was it off because they remembered the good times between the guess who was between 2003 and 2007 when things were going well. the turkish economy was growing. what was the common people the anatolian tigers i guess i could say, why would they vote for the party and propel it to the majority?

>> i could start and they think there is an assumption that democracy matters to a lot of voters. it may at some point but i don't think it's necessarily the main concern. a colleague of ours spoke after the terrible mine tragedy in turkey. he noticed that the akp swept the local election. he actually went there not some 100 doors and asked people who they would vote for and why. they all said they would vote for the akp. he said why did you than they said look i have a mortgage on my house. i have a mortgage on my car and have a mortgage on my washing machine. it goes back to bill's question question -- it's those levels we are talking about which means people are very fearful of

instability. then if you look at the studies like a recent interview by non-turkish social scientist talked about what position as a lector at? then you have what you call if you will the lower middle class. ..

>> >> europe very much made a bargain they would look either way with the turkey with the democratic violations at the scene of turkey doing more to keep the refugees in turkey. and also with some social

cost you have what are mostly syrians coming into the communities of southern turkey so there is a cost but it is run the europeans are willing to bear to keep turkey. >> this brings us to the end of this interesting discussion. it is important for the neighborhood of turkey as well. with that economic growth engine and what happens in turkey so we will be watching to discuss what happens in turkey the next couple of years to reduce

the pay and asking questions [inaudible conversations]

. . .