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tv   Key Capitol Hill Hearings  CSPAN  November 13, 2015 12:00am-10:01am EST

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partners with armored bulldozers ended put it to break down the defense's around the key city of for body. as they speak they have a calibrated effort to retake the city. . .
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>> and on countering its message of division and hate using all of the media available to do so. and we are also providing additional assistance for the security capabilities of jordan and lebanon. these efforts are paying off. not long ago they controlled more than half of the 500-mile long border with turkey and today it has a great of only
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about 15% and we have a plan with partners to pry open and secure the rest which we will. we are striving to put center of operations and we have hit some of the key energy facilities including the omar oilfield in which there was both revenue and fuel and we have made them change the way that they move and operates. and all of that and more is part of a strategy to continue building on what has worked and to apply pressure against them with as much intensity as possible for as long as it takes. at the same time we know full well that the struggle is not
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taking place in a political vacuum and that is why we are working to promote a fully sovereign occlusive inclusive iraq and able to protect all of its citizens. but the truth is that nothing can do more to bolster the fight against terrorists than they probably supported diplomatic process and they begin to escalate the conflict and to give the theory and people a choice not between monsieur max and daesh but the status quo. and something with those across the political spectrum have a voice. and that is why another war element of our strategy in syria is diplomatic and renewed political addition, broader
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oriented than previously attempted comment isolate terrorists and set syria on the path to peace. this possibility with the was the focus of meetings in vienna at the end of last month. meetings that for the first time brought together all of the key international interested parties for the very same people. and guess what, they came out with a product and the session produced a communiqué. countries that don't always agree on much like saudi arabia and iran, but those that do agree that daesh is evil and that the war in syria must be brought to an acceptable end as soon as possible. more importantly they agreed to support the territorial integrity and pluralistic character. we agreed, all of us that daesh and other groups have to be defeated. we agreed that all of us, that
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the serious state institutions should remain intact so that we don't have the implosion of we saw in iraq. we saw and we all agree upon that the rights of all syrians, regardless of ethnicity have to be protected in whatever comes out. all of us agreed that access for humanitarian relief has to be assured throughout the country and that will be one of the tactics that we talk about on saturday. we agreed to replace for refugees in the and the countries that host them and we agreed, although, that the u.n. should convene members of the syrian government and the syrian opposition to develop a plan along the lines of the 2012 communiqué, leading to an incredible nonsectarian government followed by a new constitution and by free and fair transparent and accountable elections run under the
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supervision of the united nations to the highest standards of elections anywhere in the world. we agree upon this, all of us, and we agreed to explore the possibility of a nationwide cease-fire to be initiated in parallel with this renewed political process. now, obviously, such a cease-fire does not include daesh. because our effort to defeat them in the effort of partners to defeat them will continue until we prevail. in fact it is precisely why we can, marshaling the support of the entire international community against a single common enemy. so the syrian people will be the validator's of this. our own special envoy has also
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been in constant communication with syrian represent this. so this is not about imposing anything on anyone. we are trying to come together as a stakeholders framework and the syrians will be the first to tell you that they need help from the international community to get their and what they need is a consensus that will free us from the stranglehold of extremist and i have no desire to prolong the war and they understand that the compromise will be of wired.
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so who in the world truly believe that it's possible? .after months upon months of indiscriminate violence of torture and bloodshed and 40 years of dictatorship. asking the opposition to trust us to accept our leadership is simply not a reasonable request. it is literally therefore a nonstarter. even if we wanted to, my friends, even if you made it the worst deal with the devil and said that that is what we have to do to try to make this process go forward, i have news for you. it will not stop. because there are those invested in what has happened with what has been done to them who see assad is the critical component
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of the transition. because without a real transition no matter how much we want it, the fighting is going to continue and the war is never going to end. at this point i ignored that we are still working through and the question has not been settled and we had knowledge that. we believe through this organic process that defining the future of syria, we believe that we can find the road ahead and that this is not a defeat, and this has made the position and syrian people very clear. so even while divided on this issue, the united states and russia and other countries have decided wisely not to let that disagreement present us from trying to build on the common ground that we have established with a legitimate process.
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the goal is to develop a timetable for action based on these steps and the participation of a broad range of syrian parties including men and women and the kind of political transition that will empower the center against the extremes. so i cannot say this afternoon that we are on the threshold of a comprehensi agreement and there remains a lot of work to be done. the walls of mistrust within syria and the region and the international community are thick and high. but those walls will never be breached unless we make a concerted and creative effort to cement them. the meeting at the end of october shows that the agreed basis for action is much whiterr and wider than ever proceeds. and that includes equally clear
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that assad lacks the ability to ignite or wipe away the crimes of war and govern a country and end wars. so we must find an alternative. that logic is compelling and it provides the basic unified principles for our efforts going forward. so find a way, i will return on friday will. france, germany, rants, iraq, and saudi arabia, turkey, uae, the united kingdom and the united nations. >> i pray that we will be able to find a sensible way forward.
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america's message the aegis that we all have a responsibility not to dig in our heels but to take the next step forward so that the bleeding can stop in the building can begin with so that the habits of civilization can once again take hold in this region were civilization itself was born. there are moments when managing world affairs is all you know and the elements required for progress simply do not exist. but time and turbulence can generate new possibilities. we do not know for sure whether the bright possibilities have yet come together in connection with syria. we do not know for certain whether the kind of political transition that we seek in the country can be achieved. we do not know for certain how long it will take before we can say that daesh has been defeated. but we do know for certain that we have an obligation to
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ourselves and above all to serious next-generation to test those possibilities to the fullest and even more not to accept no for an answer. we have a responsibility to do everything we can to fulfill the high aspirations enshrined in the very name of this institution and we have a duty for peace. thank you very much. [applause] [applause] >> thank you. [applause] >> please remain in your seats until the official party departs. [applause] [inaudible conversations] >> coming up on c-span2, the
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federalist society looks at the supreme court after 10 years under chief justice john roberts. then a white house medal of honor ceremony for retired army captain and efforts to prevent military suicides. >> the lexington institute josé foreman and transform on procurement starting at noon eastern on c-span3. >> the energy secretary will preview the upcoming climate summit later this month. friday at the carnegie endowment started at 2:30 p.m. eastern here on c-span2. ♪ >> please give your attention. >> my fellow americans, tonight
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our country faces a grave danger. we are faced by the possibility that at midnight. [inaudible] >> in 1952, the united states was involved in a military conflict with north korea and a dispute between the steel industry in the unit had come to a head. >> the korean war was a hot war and they needed munition tanks for jeeps and all of those things that you needed in the second world war as well. so if they went on an industrywide strike, that was going to be a problem because it's a basis of the things that the army needs to fight. >> to avoid a disruption of steel production, harry truman
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seize control of the mouse and as a result they strike was called off and production continued. however the companies lead in ohio disagreed with the action and took the lawsuit all the way to the supreme court. we will examine how the court ruled in the case and the impact on presidential powers. joining our discussion is a professor at the university of north carolina law school and author of the power of the president and the forgotten president, and william howell and author of the wartime president, power without persuasion and co-author of when dangers gather, that is coming up on the next landmark cases by the 9:00 p.m. eastern on c-span, c-span3 and c-span radio.
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for background on each case, order your copy of the landmark cases companion book which is available for $8.95 plus shipping at c-span.org/landmark cases. >> next, the court is discussed in a separate sheet justice john robert took the home. this is 90 minutes. [inaudible conversations] >> good afternoon, everyone. we are about to get started. the microphone is apparently on. welcome to all be watching on c-span and those of you watching the live stream. rachel graham is my name, for those of you that are not familiar, we are a membership organization of lawyers and lost events that provides a forum for debate on law and legal
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policies. for many of us in the room, this is the organization that brought to our law schools perspectives. [inaudible] and that includes litigation group and the practice grew bigger about here. we have 15 practice groups divided by subject matter and they were responsible for a large portion of the programming hosted by the organization throughout the year. for those of you that could be interested in getting more involved, i would make a pitch for you to get involved in one of the practice groups. if you're interested you can come to find me afterwards if you can find tim was at the front table on the fellow society staff and runs the practice groups. i've been asked reminding you that certain conferences are being live streamed on the blog
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of the federalist society so that if you cannot be here for the whole thing you don't have to miss out entirely. with akamai would like to talk about our topic today, i'm delighted with the panel that we put together and i'm looking forward to this discussion. the panel is better pointer but today on the first decade of the roberts court come from diverse perspectives, we have a journalist, academic, practitioner, former senate staffer as well. thank you for being here. for now we turn it over to our moderator for the ninth circuit. thank you. [applause] >> thank you, rachel, for that introduction. the 10 years that the chief justice has led the court have seen decisions that have affected aspects of our culture and religious and political lives, the panel today is going to discuss the deal not only with the chief justice, but also
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the nomination process and what effect he has had on the other justices and whether it should be called the roberts court or perhaps the kennedy court order some people could say that justice alito chords. in some cases we could call of the court of reversal. because the supreme court has reversed the ninth circuit in 78% of appeals that it has had. [laughter] [applause] >> to paraphrase a former solicitor general, it has been suggested that one could open this is a petition to review a judgment of the court of appeals for the ninth circuit and there
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are other reasons also been enough about the ninth circuit. the panelists are going to discuss the important decisions that are seen as consistent with the jewish philosophy of the roberts court. we have a distinguished analyst and the panels will then exchange questions from the audience. first we have steven duffield, a graduate of the university of chicago law school. stephen is the vice president for policy at crossroads gps and president of endgame strategies in washington. he worked on the senate republican policy committee during the judge roberts
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nomination. publishing a book in 2007 entitled supreme conflict, the inside story of the struggle for control of the united states supreme court. and mike has argued numerous cases before the supreme court. mike is going to discuss some of the hot button issues that have come up during chief justice
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roberts tenure including the affordable care act and the formative action that is affirmative action. then we have professor michael paulsen at the university of st. thomas school of law and minnesota and he has written extensively on interpretation. he has 2 degrees from yale and he will offer some thoughts on the direction that the supreme court might take during the next presidential administration. and so with that, let's begin with our first panelist. >> thank you. i am honored to be a part of the panel today. >> i am honored to have been a
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part of this in 2003 and 2006. and the republican threats to illuminate this and the infamous gang of 14, partial settlement, the nomination of john roberts and the sobering experience for other nominations are concerned. and that includes how john roberts was viewed from the perspective of senators that confront him, obviously i don't speak for any senator but these are my impressions. so let's go back to the summer 2005. the most important thing to understand is that there was a great deal of concern that any supreme court nominee would be blocked by a filibuster.
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nominees to conservative senators themselves could not support. in other words we feared disaster. as a consequence, senate and administration staff spent months working on how to plan a supreme court nomination. and i'm sure everyone will cause judge roberts analogy is calling balls and strikes. the first time i heard that was a few months before sitting in bill's conference room, a fellow republican counselor share the analogy in almost precisely the same language that the judge could later use. and so if you don't like the analogy, i know many do not, just do what you would like to
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do, just blame congress. [laughter] now, keep in mind there were real consequences would framing, it meant that there was far less attention given to understanding the nuances of john roberts precise philosophy and instead we were working on how to shape the debate to prevent the filibusters. so let's go back to that timeline. the gang of 14 agreement is reached in may and justice o'connor announced the resignation or retirement, rather, in july. the president nominates john roberts soon after. from the outset one thing was clear. and judge roberts excited many senators because he reminded them of what he wished they could do themselves. brilliant, someone that was smooth and cool under pressure
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and the phenomenal communicator. and they wish that they could be more like him. at the same time view at the time had replaced him with justice thomas or justice alito. judge roberts was considered an improvement over justice o'connor, a very good choice for o'connor. until after eight weeks of waiting, the nomination hearings occurred another brussels and the kennedys caucus room. eighteen senators made opening statements in many leaned forward and gave a statement of his own. he made his first public appearance and have promised not to be an agenda. there is a beautiful language about his childhood in the
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fields of indiana and there is this possibility. he was formidable and the fight if there ever was going to be one was over that day. the next two days of question-and-answer or by most republican senators. judge roberts gave doctrines that proved mastery of the law and showed relatively little in the way of specific judicial philosophy that is also rather drive. at the hearings a few months later, joe biden climbed around and spoke 26 and a half of his 30 minutes before you asked the question and we kept track. i have to say that we learned that his favorite movies were, as we know, doctor zhivago and north by northwest. and characteristically judge
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roberts response was a bit shaky. and he said that i have my experience. i'd like them to start by saying that he is confirmed. and i would like them to say that i was a good judge. and we would do private meetings with the senator and they would say, that guy is good, people were impressed.
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and he said that he said i will protect the integrity of the important work to ensure that it safeguards those liberties that make this land. and so the concern for the quarter. and you don't go through the
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judicial decisional process. and you go back to try to rationalize them and that is not the way the system is supposed to work. and embracing this elephant in the room, these words are somewhat interesting given. and he said i think when you folks legislate, you expect it is not too put in their own words. but to implement your views of what you are accomplishing in
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the statue. and then he says i think that there is meaning in legislation and the job of the judges to do as good as possible to get the right answer. this was not pursued by senators of either party. no agenda, no politics, limited goal of judging. so i thank you. [applause]
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>> i'm going to just ask to think back 10 years because president bush had really been a historic opportunity in the way that his father had done and even president reagan. [inaudible] and many victims that we need to get into and obviously some of
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the justices were not as conservative. as the people had hoped. there's a frustrating term assigned to this. i was really polite. when we had no philosophy. others really change when the guy is on the court and perhaps didn't have that strong situation to begin with. and failed to provide in many cases the key votes that would have started to turn the court back in a more conservative direction and this is the most
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egregiously characterize figured. >> you know, including the narrative, he is justice scalia is intellectual understudy. and it is in the papers and you can see thomas taking these positions and then justice scalia joining justice thomas and it's funny when i talk about
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this in speeches depending on the audience especially on the west coast, i start to talk about justice thomas and i start to tell the stories and it's almost personal. no one wants to hear it. and it's something that i think is outrageous and so -- here is
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george bush with his historic opportunity. which became obvious when justice o'connor shocked everyone by announcing that she was stepping down before the chief justice. so he had to get it right in the than the light on, i think, some very smart people. and it's kind of like we've come full circle, 10 years ago i was -- and i've argued with a lot of you in this room including on this panel, 10 years ago about whether he was going to be this judicial conservative and i was convinced that he was. and so i remember others were not. i remember members of the press, vividly in the pressroom, reporters were saying that he is not that conservative areas and
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the memos came out and they were kind of snarky. and i called a member and said see, i told you so. [laughter] and, you know, he walks through as stephen accounted but who was he? we are still talking about some of his decision. they are hard to figure. i think we will get into more of the details. it's fascinating when you think
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about how he would ruin obamacare and same-sex marriage. but those decisions would be completely complementary and not at all inconsistent because courts should not take out dispute but take a backseat to legislature and he would say that this is perfectly consistent with his testimony. the other thing about it if you look at it in 2003 when he was confirmed to the dc circuit, he had a very interesting exchange about whether he was a constructionist and some were concerned what was here. and what's he going to be part of the principles. he would not engage at all.
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and so at the time that is a very savvy answer. and so he defies them in many ways. and i think the other nomination that president bush made, we are going to talk about the roberts court more broadly than that includes how often justice kennedy will ask an attorney what is your answer to the
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questions and that includes how they will affect this on the court, because we all know when we saw justice thomas on the chords, solid vote.
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and so that is a snapshot that is being developed. and so this court is going to change. then the next president's first term will be in their 80s. and these are conservative justices and if a democrat wins the white house, the courts and its membership is really
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something that can be in flux. [applause] >> yes, i will pick up on that note. the first point to be made is that it's a misnomer in the other court and really the chief justice is just one of nine votes if he joined eight liberal justices he would have a different legacy than if he joined a conservative justice. and to pick up on the judge's remark. really i think it's more accurate to say that prior to 2005 it was kennedy and o'connor court in last 10 years, it has been largely the kennedy court because he more than any other justice is going to dictate the direction of the law. and i'm worried it could he come
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the kennedy roberts court. the jurisprudence tends to bleed into other areas and we will have some very rough sledding and it's too early to tell on that. and it's not john roberts placing him and that includes the suburban republican state legislature and you've got some continuity and principle of the law and that has affected some of the various areas that i would like to chat about briefly here today. the first things i would like to talk about is substance and kind of a jurisprudential approach to judging and how chief justice
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roberts difference. so i would say that starting with the good stuff because i am internal optimist, we have made some baby steps in the return to the rule of law and obviously if the election goes wrong then none of that will matter and we will descend into a hellish existence from lunch we will never emerge. but for right now, you know, and i would like to talk about some of ways in which we have made progress will generally it has been a big development and again i'm going to touch on each of these very lately, citizens
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united was a brilliant decision in restoring individual liberty and enhancing the marketplace of ideas. generally they took a libertarian approach and commercial speech and the decision that was in vermont and they reinforce basic principles of free speech and that includes governing the marketplace of ideas.
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and i will come back to that. basically if he has a libertarian approach to the first amendment, that is where the court is going to go. we had a step backwards last term which is probably the worst term since the 1970s. they have a very restricted opinion about the rights of doctors to solicit campaign contributions you can hopefully write that off as an anomaly that the judges are different so we are not really going to apply the first amendment to them. but the motive analysis is under inclusive analysis which is a dramatic departure and anyone takes it seriously, which i hope they won't, could undercut some first amendment protections. and the other aspect is religion
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and again i have very good marks in the terms of where the court has gone on. in terms of enhancing religious liberty to this day, justice scalia wrote the controversial opinion that essentially it said that unless they single out religion for differential treatment, they can oppose any kind of neutral thing even as religious practice. so that area to the statute which restores the protections and said you cannot burn the practice of religion, there we saw was notably last year to terms ago in the hobby lobby where they indicated there rights of religious employers to resist other mandates that were in the affordable care act.
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we saw a similar development which is actually a departure where they said even neutral regulations you cannot infringe upon the autonomy of religious institutions. so they departed that this would be okay as long as it was generally applied. we saw some baby steps and you can mention god and things like that in public forums at least if you have a strong history of doing so and i think that the real issue is that the court has not yet confronted and i think that will be the litmus test and it has not confirmed and so therefore should be that it does not violate the establishment clause if you give religious organizations to a neutral situation.
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i have a strong degree of confidence that there will be five votes for that if it comes up and the next has definitely been a mixed bag which is of course racial equality. i thought that the biggest change we would see when justice alito replace justice o'connor was in regards to racial preferences. justice o'connor said that we will take a vacation. and you can discriminate against all you want.
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and so we are dramatically revisiting what the justice did in the michigan case and that includes state raised discrimination. one relative to this actually has some educational value is. since there is a complete absence to support that notion, as long as they demand its improved as opposed to slogans and i think that they could go a long way towards restoring the neutrality of the supreme court
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waited nine months to issue a four-page opinion that literally said nothing except when we take another look at this. and this time i think it will be interesting to see if they actually were to store this to the equal protection in office. in the statutory round there has been good decisions in voting rights act. , and that includes the fair housing act which prohibits fair housing discrimination which was a real surprise to me because at least in employment and voting area, justice kennedy's name to understand and adopt the position that the effect is another word for racial quota. and we shouldn't say don't take account of race into statutes
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that say that you must and sort out the government benefits on a racially proportionate aces. but last year in the title eight case, he said don't turn this into a quota but about a week later issued regulations would turn it into a quota. so that will tell you about as much effect as the justice has there. the court's decision this year will tell you a lot about how they are going to handle racial issues going forward both in terms of the statutory and nonstatutory context and i think that the final big step forward in terms of jurisprudence and adhering to the rule of law was recognizing the second amendment actually does protect individual rights to own firearms.
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the actual practical effect of that opinion, i think we don't know yet because they have never taken a case to sort through the kinds of gun regulations that are out there and the kind of scrutiny that they have given to it but it was clearly a huge win in the closely divided court and that was probably the best thing that this court has done. obviously last year's decision with the same-sex marriage case was about as lawless as you could be, the provision that the justice imposed so that you can not deny life or liberty or property without due process of law, which means people of the same sex must be able to marry. he supported this analysis with a platitude that i think came from hallmark greeting cards.
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and so it really didn't pretend to be what we are usually accustomed to in terms of overwriting the democratic choices and the traditions. and so the one that i obviously have distinct prejudice on this, i think the lawlessness over the last 10 years was the case that i argued and in many ways it was really worse than the first decision which it upheld the affordable care act because as stephen was pointing out you could attribute that to a normal conservative -- that this was referring to congress and they didn't want to strike down when mark social legislation but there was really no excuse in terms of interpreting the
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statute. the plain language of the statute and having six members of the court say it doesn't mean state but federal, it was reminiscent with what they were doing under cases like whether or where they said was meant south and easement west. i thought the one thing that we accomplished was to interpret this so that we have some meaning to the text. there is the argument that we shouldn't defer to policy choices and these are the policy choices of the legislature from four years ago and there was really no excuse other than a policy preference to change with the law meant to be the opposite of what it meant.
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the other issue, and again this is where the chief justice is probably departing more starkly from the rule of law which upheld the constitutionality of the affordable care act and i'm trying not to take either of these decisions personally, but for those who think he doesn't like me so he only departs when i am available and maybe that will give us some solace for future cases. [laughter] and the other areas have been less dramatic in terms of their departure is. we have seen a lot of arguments where the court is essentially establishing a code for states in the death penalty and life without parole or they are dictating to elect her representatives and how they need to treat relatively young or mentally challenged murderers and establish the kind of code
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with any serious argument that the punishment being inflicted is cruel or unusual. and again, it's not terribly unpredictable in terms of consequences but was really a naked assault on the text of the constitution as in the arizona redistricting case where they said legislature didn't mean this, this was two days after this decision came down, that includes the string to send and how they proved again that it is an irony free zone. [inaudible] [laughter]
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so those are the big pictures and i think that the biggest difference between the chief justice and the conservative members of the court is an emphasis on incrementalism when he wants to take his debt by the time and he has done that in a variety of contexts where he took a small step and came back to it. the shelby county decision striking down section number five. not a lot they cast great doubt on the constitutionality commanding agency in public unions from people who do not belong to the union on first amendment grounds and now they have a case that talks about whether or not you should overturn on this period some say
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this is preferable to the justice scalia like approach. clearly some said that the black schools were not equal to the white schools during brown versus education, separate and unequal but struck down because they did not satisfy this standard. the problem with that incrementalism is that it reflects keeping in place a foundational premise which is contrary to the structure of the constitution which cannot be for the coparent development good of the law or much less the institutional integrity of the court and that is what the last one is that i'm going to make picking up on stevens point. .. court in my
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mind any time you hear a judge talk about the court as opposed to the law should send a warning signal because if you are worried about the integrity of the porch then just do what in a neutral way in a neutral manner if you start changing your view of the law or to modify your view because you're worried about public perception of a court bacchanal the invite the notion you're not interpreting the text of legal materials in the interview but a scale that favors one party or policy view over another. the by definition and decreases the integrity because it just reduces to another legislative body where decisions are made
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rather than neutral principles but is always a worrisome sign this is too early to you to know which way chief justice roberts jurisprudence would develop generally it is favorable there are a couple of exceptions and if we lose the next election or not matter at all. thank you. [applause] >> i am honored to be here this has been an existence since 1982 that i discovered they were creating this is you should not exactly a founding father but maybe if founding nephew second generation of. [laughter] i will build on a law of what has been said but i
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will move beyond that to think of the future of the roberts court. the title i have been given my remarks is a question though worry there is not a test. what's conservative about the roberts court? i agreed the idea marking the beginning of periods or epics is distorting in some ways but it is a convenient marker to look at the personnel changes and ask a question has the court really become ideologically more conservative? my answer is no. not very much not much of the ideological change since 2005 when john roberts was first sworn in. but three solid
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conservatives of rehnquist and scalia a solid block of four liberals and by the time of the 2005 then you had to swing justices o'connor and kennedy i call them a weathervane because they swing with the cultural wind with conservative instincts but not a principled coherent portrait -- a loss of these then you have the substitutions and a layout maya nine upcard then you have generally mainstream consistently conservative replacing and
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other mainstream consistently conservative that switches from roberts to request -- rehnquist and the material may change in some sense that is though little unfair it is like a double switch they came in at the same time he was supposed to command for o'connor that we have an episode from october 2005 where bush was flirting with the different nominee the then justice alito was put forward that this material because it does substitute a solid judicial conservative for a liquid or gaseous because o'connor was of a principled solid conservative. so that would change as you move from the swing justice
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and that makes a difference where kennedy would have voted with conservatives there are some issues you means conservative some with o'connor said you substitute one vote for either kennedy would be with the conservative anyway. that is basically the list michael did so could i will ballpoint but the changes have been few and far between and interspersed between a law of importance defeats for the constitution so these are mostly cases where kennedy with the light -- lean right to one in
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chin's campaign finance which was a first amendment disaster to ruth citizens united which is a triumph that is the single most notable change that is attributable to justice alito the boat abortion the partial birth abortion ban and upheld into those seven a federal ban on partial birth abortion it is baby steps. the court is moving in the right direction but it is hard to see. religious freedom there has been an important change the unanimous supreme court decision which right think undermines the premises of the employment division of the smith case will become important in the future and
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sam alito o opinion in the hobby lobby case five / four was extremely important in the interpretation with religious freedom against government regulation. and mixed results on the enumerated powers i am one of the heretics that think it was rightly decided decided s not my policy preferences but it is my interpretation. [laughter] >> we will talk about that but even in defeat there is a conservative victory that the court did adopt to put meaningful limits with the
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dramatic new restriction of the scope of government spending power to coerce states with executive power the regulatory group that i think is huge for separation of powers it says the president cannot rewrite was the congress to effectuate desired policies outcome is the scalia opinion it is brilliant and important it is a sleeper victory. this is the litigation group but there have been meaningful changes of territorial jurisdiction to
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have a practical impact in the federal courts is victories are few and far between dramatic liberal results some of the most awful cases the war prisoner case from the bush administration absolutely indefensible and precursors to the same-sex marriage case of windsor in 2013. the four democratic appointees of the supreme court when kennedy joins him it is not the roberts corporation the kennedy court so i will conclude with lessons from the next conservative president flew cares about the constitution to look for word to the next
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10 years of the roberts court and on inauguration day there will be three justices in their eighties and one in their late seventies and the opportunity for some meaningful changes in all likelihood. ideology matters judicial philosophy matters to have substantial power what the philosophy is to that property makes a huge difference to the country in the future of the nation and thconstitution sometimes literally a matter of life and death do you support - - point to the supreme court we ended up with david souter in 1980 if you had edith jones then roe v. wade is overruled by a vote of
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six / three because the weather vane will swing the other way. did you have a conception to save millions of lives it does make a huge difference if you succeed to confirm and it makes a huge difference whether you have justice sotomayor or recessions or justice kagan or cavanaugh. ideology matters in the objection will come this sometimes you cannot know in the vance sometimes it is considered not proper to ask were not politics but my
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answers are yes you can know that in advance fairly reliable it is necessary and proper to ask for course you can know how they will be as justices on the supreme court i don't think it is bragging or a special skill but give me 10 minutes i will tell you how they are likely to be on the supreme court i will not have everything right but they will not disappoint well settled expectations to put its foreign debt questions to a then you can tell in advance the difference between scalia and justice souter. it is proper to ask these questions sometimes to look at judicial independence with the constitution is of function of salary guarantee of life tenure that should
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be the assurance of this additional autonomy. beside the gives the explicit political confirmation m process as part of the separation of powers and checks and balances to become the obligation of the senate to be the proper view of constitutional interpretation with all the powers at their disposal. into favor the most extreme version of the litmus test just give me one question to ask in individual justice with the maximum amount of information i talk about roe v wade if they can make
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president and star a decisive is where the debris of relationship of judicial power and it is entirely appropriate to push these questions for word and should be obligatory. i will leave it there so we have some time but they give for your attention. [inaudible conversations] mcdevitt. [applause] [applause] >> with a period of questions and answers i appointed myself to start. we have the two cases and the interpretation what is not attacks on monday is a tax on tuesday when you
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include the word federal in the second case there is another case where the legislature includes the enactment now is contextualism dead and the justice roberts give any indication? >> i don't think he did i have the transcript you get some hint it decide to go backwards to look big issue find yourself looking backwards but has a went through it thinking back and remember that being teed up
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with no discussion what that would look like but then you have a the conversation of history but extended to which you would focus it would mean something different, no. we have no discussion that i could find like the first a see a case. they are not teed up because i think the hearings are taking place in a certain moment of time so now there's a law of discussion of key though. or the more recent cases to be discussed at the same time people think of that in a narrow sort of way in
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terms of those. i noted is dead but they don't seem inclined to be with those doctrines of the interpretation with that format so that consequence is that they're not elaborated upon very much to sit there to have a simple view that is simple and straightforward about policy preferences to explain the contours of how you get there.
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with the senate judiciary committee they have touched a job than there is the normal institutional part of the nominee people are interested to know they are conservative but they will not engage in a hostile cross-examination and john roberts and alito would run circles around anyone after a superb performance budget justice alito enveloped the committee in the warmest bath of boredom. [laughter] that was everyone.
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[laughter] so the notion that the democratic senator like joe biden. [laughter] would figure his jurisprudence is unrealistic. >> because think about how john roberts answer the question. that it is subject to the principles of star a decisiveness that they heard different -- different things but what they heard is different things.
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>> and to go by north by northwest this is a funny moment that senator schumer was completely frustrated with the current u.s. attorneys from new york to plan now a careful cross-examination and there was some back-and-forth of
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the caribbean to the question he said i am happy to answer the question then said north by northwest. he was angry as was his counsel. because they really tried really hard to figure out how to pin him down and get enough information about his judicial philosophy to how to rule on the case. they thought they had him. and he slipped right by then he made a joke out of it. but it was not a joke for senator schumer or the other side there were very frustrated. >> i am not sure the senate confirmation hearings are
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the best evidence to throw out traditional ideology you do that in one-on-one conversations with people who understand these issues in the right questions to be asking and looking for. my critique is the way the republicans administration tests seemingly failed to put a direct simple straightforward questions. >> they figure that out in the interviews they live. [laughter] the reagan administration judicial screening. yes it begins to be overturned. good. have some coffee. [laughter] nobody would say it is correct you gt there different ways but i thank you need a track record with the justice department or the state attorney general or on the bench justice souter was a completely
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self-inflicted wound. i'll think it is the hard to teach them how to but the crucible of the white house interview process. >> think of justice alito he has never written a wrong opinion and his confirmation hearing he was the big fight nominated on halloween anybody said it is scary and an american track there is the track record and opinions and on and on and his performance was so masterful. and you cannot have scripted it any better when his wife started to cry it was like
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they were ready undergoing to beat him and they could never strike never. by the way he did not read one word of their briefing books they prepared so the lesson that i think if you get that nominee confirmed his track record picasso thinking of the nominee robert bork was there with nectar red gum at the time. [laughter] >> we still have the senate in 86 to have gotten through so little quirks like that.
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>> we have to close at 145 punctually so if you have questions please stand up and go to the microphone please identify yourself and the person to answer the question. >> every real property attorney from idaho. generally is the specific you think the decision of possibility drives the results but the larger question does the roberts court move into a position it uses the bill of rights as a shield to give a carve out to say no. you can do that there is no power like the affordable
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care act in particular. >> great question if saudia lobby affects the outcome with the mandate cases. i hope so to keep the government for doing
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otherwise would it needs to do. >> justice alito recently spoke to a gathering in he mentioned his distress in the free speech cases of course, he was the one dissent and he mentioned the video case. would you like to see a distinction between self expression and free speech? do you think he will be influential with the other members of the court and what controversy might be decided differently?
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>> i think that justice alito narrow interpretation of freedom of speech does raychem the allied air with the court it is it's something he does often but in that aspect a pro freedom of speech position more than anyone on the court and is in a reliable place for freedom of expression is to send in the crashes and legal society was a powerful defense of freedom of expression and expressive association that is one of the important losses during the roberts court era that will be overturned in the future.
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>> i think he is less libertarian where the streak -- the speech does not strike as speech with justice alito like to step on puppies heads. . .
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i'll say this, the senate has very little information on specifics. there are a handle a members that may have information. my short answer is i have no idea. >> scalia did not appreciate it.
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i don't know he would've taken it. in his defense, but no. what's interesting i think, another interesting question is everything has to line up. getting struck by lightning, getting nominated to the court. it depends on whether the democrats or republicans control the senate. to me, if he had stepped down, when we all thought he was going to, and really he should have, would john roberts have been the menominee? if rehnquist had gone first
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question? , my guest would've been no. when the president saw him performing as he did and it was rehnquist on the eve of his hearing passing away, it had been contested. it was easy easy for the president to move roberts into that spot paving the way for that legal powerhouse harriet miers, which no one is mentoring her name so i have to throw it out there. i think the court would look quite different had rehnquist step down. >> you gotta do it woman, let's throw harriet out there for a couple weeks. high-stakes poker but i have to give you credit. >> so in his dissent and over felt, they criticize the new york case more than ten times. that's a case that more and more
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conservative legal scholars seem willing to embrace. my question for the panel is what world you think that case will play the next appointee should a republican win the election. >> you said lochner quest mark. >> i'd say zero. i just don't see anybody on the court, including justice thomas going toward a notion of substantive due process that gives it the same kind of protection to economic rights as been given to abortion and that sort of thing because they think in my view that lockley was wrongly decided and economic regulationsñi, in today's sociey is really, really stupid that the constitution doesn't deprive states of federal governance of the ability to enact really stupid economic regulation. >> okay last question and to the rear of the microphone.
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>> some of you talked about citizens united. what is your sense of this in cases like mccutchen, free enterprise club, citizens united, who, who is the swing vote? >> who's the last one to come on board? >> i think you need to take those individually. we all know there was a famous dispute between justice scalia and justice roberts about the wisconsin right to life. again scalia takes the approach that you need to destroy the village to save it. chief justice takes the approach to keep the structure there that but make sure it doesn't mean anything. i'm sort of on the scalia side of that debate. if there's a fundamentally incompatible with first amendment rights than it should be cleaned up not through this
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incremental stuff your question, chief justice roberts was reluctant to take the steps that they ultimately took as quickly as justice coolio wanted him to but eventually he came around to it. it's really interesting, if the solicitor general had not given the completely truthful answer that yes this means you couldn't publish a book criticizing hillary clinton, the corporation couldn't do it, we may have had a different result. that's what led to rethinking that argument. i strongly suspect justice roberts is the one putting the brakes on that. he probably wanted to write a
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more narrow scope in citizens united. to restore the first amendment to what a naturally meant, i think he went alon
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♪ ladies and gentleman of president of the mistakes along with the medal of honor recipient. ♪ ♪ >> almighty god we hear your words how can repay though board for his goodness today we remember your good news
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with the sacrifice of all soldiers heal our hearts from the tears of their grieving families to be with us as we bader the actions of their hero's. we give thanks for their sacred calling to serve and protect and defend our nation and we of life. made this heroic and virtuous soldier be an example for future generations me his life serve as a beacon for a young men and women who run from the sound of the guns for the sake of humanity and the pacific of the nation they have come to love. if your name we pray. a bad -- amen. please be seated.
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good morning. three years ago captain florent groberg was recovering from his wounds as a consequence of the actions we honor today. he woke up in the hospital bed in a haze he was unsure about he was in germany. someone with ed -- was at his bedside talking to him. he thought it was the lead seger from the heavy metal band korn. [laughter] he thought what is going on? am i hallucinating? but he wasn't it was real. so today i want to assure you covet florent groberg you are actually in the white house period those
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cameras are on i am not the lead singer from korn. [laughter] but we are here to give you the highest military distinction of the medal of honor. we but three years ago on one of my regular visits to walter reed and he was one of them. the lakes the chicago bears a highlight camera the way. [laughter] and i had a chance to meet his parents who could not be more gracious and charming to get a sense where flo gets his character from. i also want to welcome flo girlfriend who apparently he had to help paint an
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apartment the other day so there is a chore list going on. [laughter] to believe members in all of our distinguished guests me honor this american veteran whose story like so many speaks not only of gallantry of the battlefield but as a teen you -- to major flo discovered he had a gift. he could run. fast. he would leave the competition in the dust in one of the best and state and ran track and cross-country at the numbers to maryland. his college coach called him
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a consummate teammate somehow we always found a little extra when he was running on the relay with the team. as one said he could go a little more than everybody else could. day after day and month after month he pushed myself in you that every run every stretch and interval could shave a second of his time. and then we find out a few seconds makes all the difference. training and teamwork but made him a great runner also makes him a great soldier in the army he would hit the books and pay attention and field exercises because he knew he had to be prepared. the deploy to afghanistan twice.
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first as a platoon leader than a couple years later when he was picked to head up a security detail. but this day three years ago leading a group of soldiers to a meeting with local afghans. a journey that has been made many times before they would walk on foot to including passage over a narrow bridge. they passed pedestrians and cars and bicycles and children but then they began to approach the bridge a pair of motorcycles sped toward them from the other side. the afghan troops shouted for the biker tucson and they did and they ran away but then flo notice someone to his left walking backwards.
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he spun around and that is when flo sprinted toward him and pushed him away from the formation and as he did you notice the object under his clothing, a bomb. and at that moment he grabbed him by the best and kept pushing him away all those years of trading in the classroom and on the field all came together in those few seconds to have the instinct and the courage to do what was needed. one of his comrades joined him they shoved him again and again and pushed him so hard he fell to his chest and the bomb detonated. flo was thrown 20 feet and
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was knocked unconscious his eardrum was blown out. and pleading badly he knew he would be a sitting duck said he had his pistol out and dragging his wounded by the about that claim before american heroes that flo wants us to remember today. the 24 year-old that lawyers downtime or india their soldier that wanted to talk. and command sergeant major he was a role model because he cared more about people than himself. a popular air force leader seminole we seem to run into
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a friend wherever he went. and finally a foreign service officer to read just volunteered for a second to work through ruth to the united states from egypt and reveled in everything american these four men believed in america and gave their lives to our country. but their families bear that sacrifice most of all. i would like those three goldstar families to please stand although one family could not be with us today. [applause]
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today we honor to die because of his actions of the catastrophe by pushing the bomber away from the formation it took away but that explosion caused a second today before was in place had both gone off bluenose how many could have
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been killed. those are the allies he helped to say. the brigadier-general, a sergeant who was awarded a silver star for confronting the attacker. also the bronze star for pulling flo from the road in specialist, that it will help to save flo leg and private first-class and sergeant who also served with distinction that day. please stand and except your thanks of a grateful nation. [applause]
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at walter reed flo began his next mission to recover. he heads a bit under damage almost half of the calf muscle was blown off the leg that got him around the track that moved so swiftly that had been through hell and back banks to 33 surgeries' and some of the finest medical treatment a person can ask for he kept the leg procopius not running but he is doing a law of cross that i would not challenge him to cross it. putting some turf and a
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roving machine and stair climbers. today's key is medically retired but like so many of the other veterans he continues to serve that is what our veterans do their highly skilled and dynamic leaders always looking for the next chapter of service to america. four flo a civilian job with the department of defense to help take care of our troops to keep the military strong every day he is serving he will wear a bracelet on his wrist as he is today that bears the names of his brothers in arms who gave their lives that day. the truth is he says that was the worst day of his life as is the stark reality behind these medal of honor
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ceremony is called the courage that inspires us these actions were demanded by some of the most dreadful components of for. that is why we honor heroes like him because of their worst day he managed to summon his very best. not being afraid but performing in a selfless fashion. he showed his trading and to put it all on the wide for his teammates that is an american may can all be grateful for that is why we
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honor capt. florent groberg today god bless all who serve when given their lives to our country we are free because of them may god bless their families and continue to bless the united states of america with heroes such as this. >> the president of the united states of america by act of congress march 3rd march 3rd, 1863 awards the medal of honor to captain florent groberg distinguishing himself by an active gallantry to go above and beyond the call of duty
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fourth infantry division against an armed enemy on august 8, 2012. on that date consisting of several leaders to battalion commanders a sergeant major and a national army brigade commander as they approached the compound he approached the individual approach to the information he noticed the individuals clothing putting itself in front of the commander he rushed forward using his body to push away from the formation. he ordered another member of the detail to help remove the suspect regret this time captain florent groberg confirmed the suicide best
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they physically pushed the suicide bomber away from the formation. upon falling he detonated outside of the perimeter killing four members and wounding others the blast from the first suicide bomb went previously unnoticed is the reactions bush the first with the formation to minimize the impact of the formation saving the lives of his comrades and senior leaders. capt. florent groberg heroism and selflessness keep pace with the highest tradition of military service and has great credit upon himself to the brigade team of the united states army.
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[applause]
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>> let us pray. made example on all the soldiers remembered today served to inspire us to defeat the enemies of the acts of virtue to give us the courage of what is good to help those who suffer. maybe bring honor to those who perished so others may live in peace. grant your blessings to be with us always. amen. >> that concludes the formal portion of the ceremony you may take some pictures with the outstanding team members as well as the goldstar families that are here
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today. that his words this battle honors them. and on veterans day that is appropriate. thanks to all of our service members who are here today and i hope you enjoy the outstanding reception. i hear the food is pretty good here. [applause] [inaudible conversations]
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♪ c-span for campaign
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2016, taking you to the road to the white house on tv, the radio and c-span.org. >> next, look at efforts to prevent suicide among service members. joe donnelly of indiana joined veterans advocates and the
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foundation for suicide prevention. it's about one hour. >> good morning everybody. thank you all for attending this briefing sponsored by senator joe donnelly this morning. along with the american foundation for suicide prevention, the nation's nation's leading nonprofit dedicated to preventing suicide through education, advocacy, and research. it is my my pleasure today to introduce three distinguished panelists that are going to talk about the military suicide prevention prevention in our country it is the goal to reduce suicide 20 set 25% by 2025. in order to. in order to do this we have to address issues around suicide prevention that flag our communities.
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currently 22 22 veterans died by suicide every day. veterans comprise an estimated 20% of suicides in this country every year. on the panel today we have yochi dreazen, the author of the invisible front, love and loss and in this era of war. he is the editor for news and form policy where he runs and oversees a team of reporter. his book was picked as one of the most notable books of 2014 and one of amazon's best books of 2014. yochi dreazen has made several trips to afghanistan and has been an total of four years on the ground in the two countries. he mostly did frontline combat. he has reported for more than 20 countries including pakistan, russia, china, israel, japan,
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turkey, morocco and saudi arabia. bill rauch is the political director and supports the development of the annual policy agenda. these and advocacy campaign through trusted relationships with veteran relations and government agencies. bill is a former army major who served 17 months in iraq and has experience working with veterans and veterans issues from his work on several major political campaigns and serves as team red white and blue for his local community in alexandria virginia. he has appeared on nbc nightly news, c-span's "washington journal" and msnbc coverage of memorial day 2015. last we have mark graham. he is the senior director at
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rutgers call center and director of that's for warriors. general graham has lost two sons in two different battles. one to suicide and another to an ied in iraq. mark currently heads the call center and is the director for vets for warriors which provides veterans with 247 confidential stigma free peer support by veterans to activate duty, national guard and reserve servicemen. also to veterans, retirees, and their families and caregivers. we think you all for coming today. now i would like to introduce senator donnelly who as a senator from indiana introduced his first piece of legislation, when he came to the senate, he has been awarded the action award from the foundation of
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suicide prevention as a champion of veteran and military mental health and suicide prevention. senator. >> thank you all for being here. to our panel, panel, thank you so much. we really appreciate it and to john and trevor, thank you. i guess the best way to start off would be to talk about the incredible dedication and hard work of all of our men and women who serve. of the love and devotion of the people of this country, for all of them. i want to tell you a little bit about a national guard unit in my home state. when our national guard was serving, they were in iraq in 2008. it was extraordinarily difficult circumstances and when they talk to each other, other, they said we have each other's back.
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that's what we do. we have each other's back. it was a group that was in a truck. one was a driver one was the look out who made sure everybody was safe and one was a navigator. they were all working together. for a year they had each other's lives in each other's hands. it was the most intense effort you can imagine. they came home to evansville and the streets were lined with people cheering when our national guard group got home. and they did. they began to live their lives back home in indiana and from 2011 - 2015, four of the members of that national guard group have taken their lives. it is heartbreaking that it has to and.
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that is what these wonderful people are trying to do. 2014, has my first piece of legislation as a senator, we were able to pass the suicide prevention act. what it did, jake was a a wonderful young man who served in iraq and afghanistan. his family and he helped provide coats and other things to the kids in afghanistan when it got cold. but jake had an unbelievable choice as he had to make and that's what our military have to do. incredibly difficult choices, life or death, one side or other. he came back home on r&r and when he got back home he took his life. he also told his dad before he went on it to her, he said dad i just don't feel right. something doesn't feel like it's working. it's not just those in combat as you all know.
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it's people back home as well. with the stresses of finance and family trying to balance the national guard and a career and a family and the financial stressors. we want to make sure we are there for them. with the prevention acted is provide an annual mental health assessment for each and every service member, active duty, guard, reserve. then provided privacy protection so there was a chance for them to be able to seek this help and be able to do it with privacy. this past year were hoping pass today, god willing, is a care package that says okay we've been able to provide an annual health assessment, now we need to find the providers to do it. so what this does is for private providers in evansville and all
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over the country they can go to places like the military research institute and get the training needed so that when a servicemember comes in or a guard member or reserve member, they know this person understands the special challenges they face. they get a certification with an online registry so that our vets and service members can go online and save this person gets it. i can talk to them and feel comfortable. then the department of defense folks take additional training in suicide risk recognition. so they can start to understand and we also are trying to add additional physician assistant so we have more frontline providers to help our men and women. our cardmembers, think of this,
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when they finish up they can't go to military treatment facilities. they can't go to va. they don't often know about other services that are out there. oftentimes they feel like they are by themselves. there is a transition that takes place when you go from one to the other. we find ourselves with challenges as well. what that means, so you're in dod you're in that system, you're struggling and so they give you prescriptions to help take care of yourself. you become a veteran and they completely change what you're on because of xyz not being covered by va.
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va covers fg age. so something you've begun to feel comfortable with and is working for you, it completely changes per we have to make this seamless. we have to to make the handoff seamless and we have to recognize, been a nation at war for such a long time and in many ways, young people like our cardmembers come home and there's a complete disconnect. there's a disconnect to the community that loves them so much, to the world that used to be a part of but before they went and when they served, they see things and deal with things that completely change their lives. the incredible dependence of knowing other people count on you for their entire life. they're under incredible stress every day in our panel knows much better than i do. then you come home and it's just different. we want to be there to help but
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we not only want to be there to help, help, we have an obligation to be there to help. to make sure that if someone has a question there is someone there to provide an answer, that they feel comfortable that there is no stigma. that if they're there feeling sideways, they know who they can call. they have the opportunity to talk to somebody. that's our job. that's what we need to do. we lost over 400 young men and women lashed year in the military. we want to get this number to zero. trevor and john, thank thank you. to our panelist, think you so much. thank you for your sons who have served and all your family has sacrificed we are incredibly grateful for your help trying to
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provide answers. thank you very much [applause]. >> thank you again senator donnelly for your comments and your true leadership in the united states senate to prevent suicide among our veterans, military personnel and provide support to their families. next i would like to introduce yochi dreazen. >> good morning it's a pleasure to be with you on this rainy day. setting aside journalistic activity for a moment, your activity on this is wonderful to see sen. i wish you were not so often standing by yourself on an issue that matters as much as this one does. i just want to talk briefly about the issue in framing a little bit and turn it over to my friend mark. in 2009, i began to hear from friends who came back that they
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would look in the mirror and not recognize himself. these are military friends i met over the years in iraq and afghanistan. you could see it in the eyes of their wife or their husband that they were scared. they could see in the eyes of their children that they were scared. they felt ugly and disfigured by what they had seen or what they had done. they knew they had changed but they didn't know how or why or how to change it. some of them over facebook or e-mail or phone began to say they are thinking of killing them self. they just didn't want to live in the way they were living. they didn't want to keep feeling what they were feeling. a couple of those i knew did kill themselves and this was shattering on a personal level. setting aside anything john journalistic, these were guys i've known. these were guys guys who made it back physically unhurt for the most part but they came back with something inside of them. with the diagnosis they didn't know how to deal with. there was no support structure. as flawed as the active duty structure is, there is exists.
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the reserves has nothing. they came back to a civilian world that it was more disconnected than it's ever been. they came back in enormous numbers. in 2009, up until 2009, military suicide rate had been steadily rising. the military response was we have a problem but you civilians have just as bad of a problem. that was literally true. if you look at demographic in the civilian world, men between the age of 18 and 25 which is generally demographic of the military, they were rising at the same rate. the numbers were roughly the same. 2009 was a horrifyingly important year. that was the first year where the military suicide rate rate exceeded the civilian rate and it's just kept going. 2009 is when the rate pulled ahead and kept going higher and higher and higher.
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there had been reluctance at the higher level of the military took knowledge what they were seeing which is an epidemic. by 2009, that didn't happen anymore. they had no way of refuting what they were seeing in the numbers were so startling and horrifying. knowing as many people who did were struggling, i began to ask the pentagon whether there were people i should get to know. people who were trying to fight this in a creative and energetic way. people had acknowledge the problem early and were dedicated to solving it. i kept hearing the name mark graham again and again and again. they would tell the story of him and his wife carol. i will let him talk about it, but it was hard for me to believe frankly because you don't meet generals who have lost children. you don't meet people that have served their country as long as
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people like he has pi went to fort carson to find out what he was trying to do and what you covered. right before he got there there was a unit with a nickname of lethal warriors that had killed 11 people. soldiers in and around the base. this had really never been seen before. this was new and horrifying he got there and have the darkness of suicide in the darkness of homicide. these are things he devoted himself to fighting while he was there. part of the cause that he was trying to fight and what he had seenis stigma. what is that? how does it manifest itself.
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it manifests itself in a soldier who came back wanting to kill himself and putting black paint on a white wall. thankfully he got the help you needed and was taken to a hospital and survived and is still life today. the military response was he defaced government property so we will charge him. this is a mother of a son who almost killed himself and called and said if i come and repaint the wall let my son go. they said sure. so she came and repainted the wall. they looked at the nicely painted wall and they charged him anyway. this is were talking about, the callousness and the in the cruelty. were talking about soldiers and
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marine feeling that if they go seek help, their careers will end. they will be mocked by the people around them and seen as cowards. they will be seen as people who don't want to serve anymore. people who came back and are scared. not the people who have anything legitimate, any struggle they will struggle to fight against. there's one case i wrote about in the book in which a kernel felt the soldier was underperforming and tried to kick them out and said he's overweight in showing up late for formation. there's something off about him. he's getting into fights with other people. they tried to kick them out. mark looked at the same case and said his record before he was deployed is perfect. what's different. he has ptsd and he needs help, not to be kicked out. he saved the career of that young soldier.
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people in the military and look at the military from the outside, it is extremely rare for a general to reach down into his brigade and say to a kernel, you're wrong and reverse the decision. it's not popular. i spoke to the colonel and he's a very good man. one of the problems with this issue is that there are not only no silver bullets but very rarely is a black and white. very rarely is there a villain or hero. most often it's in the gray. this kernel had a point. i need to deploy the best soldiers that i have in the soldier is not one of them. he's not one of them because he needs help. gives you a sense of the complexity of what it is that the military is fighting against. we like to look the military from the outside and say it's its own world that were not a part of. the military has made a gigantic
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mistake by consolidating itself in places where the average civilian would never go. if you live in a coastal city, washington being the exception, you may never see anybody who serves except for in the airport. you probably don't know anybody who serves. you probably have zero association. it's not its own world. they protect our country and what comes from one impacts the other. from the moment it was created till 2010, more people died in car crashes than illness. that was the case quite literally from when the first model t rolled off the assembly line. in 2010, that changed. that was the year that the civilian suicide rate, the number of people killing themselves exceeded the number dying car crashes. if you think about that for a
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moment, all of us watching local news read the horrible stories of a crash on highway x killed so many people. but when you're seeing that, that same day, more people total, americans are killing themselves then are dying in this car crash. that is a staggering thing. i want to close with that because we owed the military more than saying thank you for your service. we know the military more than trying to understand that it is the military that reflects us. we know the military there it knowledge that we are the country that understands what it is going through and that we understand what those who serve are going through whether their guard or reserve or active duty, it doesn't matter. if they wear or have worn the uniform, we are either are fighting or have fought in wars, afghanistan as we know is not ending. we thought it was but it's not.
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even when these wars and, the number of ptsd will not end. number of cases that manifest themselves for decades after a person has served will not end. we'd like to believe, i think in those in the military who are still fighting it, they know better. there is a hope out there that when the guns of war fall silent, the suicide rate rate will drop or slow. that's just not true. ptsd can go on for decades. they can be fine for decades and then 30 years from now something happens and they take their own life. now we are seeing suicide rates among men in their 50s skyrocket. some of these men have lost a job and are figuring they will never work in a assembly again. i want to close with that.
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i should point out that when we discovered we were having a baby boy and we spoke to our parents, my first call was to mark and his wife. as you listen to them, keep that in mind. they're not only speaking about or for the military, they are speaking for our country [applause]. >> senator donnelly, thank you for your leadership and the legislation you proposed and we hope many more will support us. we thank you for what you're doing each and every day. as he said, he's family. we've we've spent a lot of time
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with him and he's writing the book. of course my good friend bill as well. today's the marine corps birthday so happy birthday to the marine corps i'm an army guy so i will say tomorrow is veterans day and we all just want to thank our great american veterans and their family and caregivers for all they continue to do for our nation each and every day. who do you call when you're home alone at night and you're afraid, you're isolated, you don't know what to do or who to turn to. you don't know who to call. i run a program at wreckers called that's for warriors. it's an that's the number for warriors. it's 24 hours a day seven days a week, veteran answers the phone within 30 seconds of the phone
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ringing. they're trained in a program called reciprocal peer support. it set up where veterans answer a call in their support on-site 24 hours a day. no matter where you are and if you're active member, family member caregiver reserves, reserves, no matter what you can call the number and ominously or confidentially. we don't tell if you tell us your name or where you live. you can call and talk to a veteran who gets it and understands what you're going through. twenty-four hours a day. who do you call question on who they call in the middle of the night? i wish my son kevin had a phone number to call. our son kevin died at his own hand. he took his own life by gun in 2003. he was getting ready to go to the army advance camp and finished his third year of rotc. he was a straight a student, a
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premed student was going to be an army doctor. he took his own life. he was struggling with depression. he didn't even tell his brother or sister he was struggling. there was huge stigma. he was on medication and came off his medication. i will never forget only found out later that one of the kids was using his computer and he walked out and said who's on this. it was kevin and he was embarrassed. he felt it was a character flaw. this isn't just a simple stigma. this is a deadly stigma. we can change. people say how going to change #america can do anything if we put our minds to it. our research and our resources behind it. our son jeff had graduated from the university of kentucky. he was killed in iraq ten months later. they were best friends as well as brothers.
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>> >> to connect you to somebody they connect you to local resources there are organizations out there everybody is guarding their rice bowl and all the soy sauce. we want people to know we have a 24 hour days seven days ago week call center you are never alone we connected to local resources with whatever you need and i'll give you a couple of examples a veteran in a motel recently struggling
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because we don't do crisis calls we had a veteran called recently after a long conversation they talked to this veteran to help convince them and they decided they were right he locked the gun in the trunk of a car then contacted the police he came and took him to the emergency room where they admitted in. and the said collins' back when he is safe. guess what the police officer was a veteran. he got a. another is a grandmother recalled worried about her grandson has she got a note
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on facebook and finally started to make connections they got him help of course, he said grandma don't do that again. [laughter] but the matter the challenge they are there. the follow-up as long as it takes they called us and is to reduce clinton knows somebody will call me back. they need a safety net there in transitions we higher over 46 veterans so we hire and train them to do this
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great work around the clock. prevention is key. to be the safety net with their transition out of the military with the normal drill status for there are so many times they can fall through the? in the want to be there for them. and wish my son had before he took his own life i believe that our nation each and every day we're here to help and not judge we are here to help and not judge we will help them work
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through it together that feels like getting hit with a fire hose what is the toughest thing you are going through today? up can we help you today? let's do it together and one better in that time army navy air force marine or caregiver at a time is how we solve this thank you again. for your great friendship by love your brother and things to all the veterans for your service this is the land of the free because of the brave don't wait. call. you are not alone.
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[applause] >> thanks to mark specifically i know lark because we graduated at west point together and we were stationed with those places nobody would go to bed now want to go back and they said he would either marry her or go to jail and we are really glad he is part of the family now. we also want to think senator donnelly and the staff aide you so much for everything you do to change
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the culture and the stigma to promote community and awareness like you do. and two friends on the panel we talk about this often and in fact, industrialized this is one of the few times we have spoken on the same panel which is what probably gravitate toward this but i want to tell a couple of stories with a number one priority is combating suicide in this country in the first tory is related to a point that this is a problem for our country not just the military purpose of speaking of the recipients from iraq and afghanistan and most recipient medal of honor was involved in an
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attack and afghanistan were a friend of mine died and it started to think about that last night i was thinking of him as the most recent friend i have had to has died and asked who was the first person? although scott died in a training accident and of the key was the first. and the first person in my class who died was a cadet who died by suicide before the war started and was home on christmas leave and did not come back we didn't know how to talk about it he is not on the web site if you look at the list of the names of the fallen soldiers talks about community and culture the culture is such
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we don't talk about mental health or suicide but one of the amazing things as an army veteran that i love about the legislation in the senator has sponsored and i believe will make a huge impact in the culture of the military is the annual checkup every young son who is to and has been to the dentist twice. both painful this is both times. committed is indebted he will go every year so what does that have to do with mental health? everything because in this country the ada to get a checkup once your for your mental well this is foreign to most people so when you looked at in that context
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because it another component was april 2007 i was in iraq might commander said you have a phone call. i was with my battle buddied it was my father to tell me my oldest sister had died by suicide and had taken her life. never served a day in her life. how did this happen in? i didn't see the signs it did not know them but to go back to the culture peace no one in my family was prepared no one in my community was aware what those signs were we talk
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about that the highlights the point that is a challenge for the entire nation and country so i talk about culture and community it truly does impact all of us a usually ask folks to participate so ask yourself how many of you know, someone that has died by suicide? ask yourself that question. so why wouldn't we take action or more active in our community? because it is the situation to talk about policy agenda it is powerful we have worked tirelessly in with partners on the hill looking
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at that policy component to leverage community and that is what it is all about so we are proud to support the marines is important to talk about this today but he could not receive the help that he needed and i think of those under not as driven or is motivated to have a more difficult time trying to get over those barriers and and i feel very privileged i have a the v.a. to go to another barriers to entry are different for each sector but i also think of
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my sister and others the reservists who don't have the access and go back into the small towns and they feel all alone in a very different way than they did on active duty it was uniquely different because i was already in the exact same community i laughed and that i had the same neighbors with that lack of community so tomorrow is veterans day we're proud to have events across the country to come together and tomorrow is veterans day but
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every day we should be striving to build community to change the culture if you have read the book read the book is phenomenal. educate yourself and get active in your community this affects the entire country just like senator don ho just like in alexandria new jersey ask yourself what can you do personally? we all those one that has been touched by this and there is something we can do about it. the key to be an amazing partner into my friends for sharing their story. [applause]
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>> i cannot thank you know for being here today as you talk about this subject at this point i would like to turn it over to the audience briefly for questions. >> [inaudible] that bill did a few things first and foremost, passed by this congress to address mental-health and is named after klay hunt user did
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iraq and afghanistan and. is provided incentive for officials to go to the v.a.. 34 the thousand dollars of student debt to help them recruit mental health professionals there is a shortage across the country and this affects all of us. another thing it did was mandate freeing of many programs said v.a. had into one location to find out where the resources are even with the assessment that there are so many efforts out there one of the challenges we had had we know what is working well or not a strike to look at
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things also we have called on congress to have a public hearing working with the v.a. and their mental health professionals to make sure they have the tools they need to implement and we're confident over a three-year period we will find ways to improve the services to replicate and learn from across the board. >> one thing president obama did for all of american history only those you died in service but it was not for those by suicides and he was the first president to
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sit down with those who died at their own hand but they will look to the families who lost one with that same level of grief because that letter said your son served with honor and recognize that as a country. >> i believe that was 2009 was there anything else you want congress to do to address? >> i think to build on the
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success there were some things that were not included we talk about access to care and currently i am enrolled at the v.a. as a five-year combat eligibility requirement add but we know many individuals to experience trauma in the challenges that they had that even older men start to see the uptick of challenges doesn't happen three years after you come back so the recommendation is to extend that at 15 years. absolutely that is something that can be done to be a champion for the community at large has a package distaff has been working on that is very bold will we
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think is as the old policy that not only addresses the dod side but also the v.a. side but there is the culture peace as well. having the president sent a letter what a shift of culture. each congressperson has the ability to do something to be leaders of change to use the right language i didn't know about the right language to tell my sister died they can speak intelligently and share their stories but a good policy would impact the culture and community aspect. >> the newspapers to report that we would be honored but
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we're not notified. that is the hardest part for us. is the suicide rate from operation in desert storm and operation freedom is it similar to the vietnam or korea? it sounds that we hear more about it. >> it is a great question the date data was not attract as closely so the feeling is that it is worse so what we think of as ptsd as there were different phrases so post civil war so
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you have that phrase in that number ended world war ii half a million troops discharge shoes psychiatric disorders such to fight as the greatest generation how forcible because they could not do any more baby they were shellshocked but ptsd he emerged from vietnam. those studied the issue believe there are a couple of reasons but the multiple the plebiscites without question and a majority of those who have killed themselves have not deployed but still the units where they had so what they hear from the people next to them this is what we faced they are absorbing behavior's and
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also a prescription drug use is extraordinarily high it is too high in the civilian in the military world again. the military and its billions to control the amount tops it is like world war i. there are 58 men at that base of 53 taking prescription drugs they're taking multiples like six or nine. they come back then they go cold turkey where suicidal thoughts skyrocket and a change like that can lead to suicide.
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it isn't something that happened in previous wars a lot of research is going to babette and of think we have any sense of how big of a problem is. >> things for coming today to joyous for this important conversation. i have to think of our partners from the american foundation of suicide prevention volunteers across this country and of all communities to prevent suicide with partners like iraq and afghanistan journalists and authors to speak up and out that have a
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very on the love of that this point with your wife your daughter in the important work that you do every day and have done to prevent suicide in the bill said earlier resonated with me that every day is veterans day we're doing work every day to prevent suicide among our nation's veterans and military personnel like the senator is, the white house, congress and capitol hill be will get the job done and prevent suicide. thank you for coming out and have of wonderful day and a great veteran's day tomorrows. [applause] the
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runoff. >> good evening, i am beth courtney. thank you for joining us. we have a 40 year tradition of contributing to the democratic process and we continue that through the debate and other public forums. we welcome the entire audience this evening. thank you. >> i am berry erwin, president of the council for better louisiana and thank you for joining us. our debate features candidates in the runoff for louisiana governor. first state representative john
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bel edwards and state senator david vitter. thank you for joining us. >> kelly spires is one of the questioners and jeremy is here from editor and publish of lawpolitics.com. >> tonight we will dive into issues and topics of great importance to the citizens of louisiana. a drawing was held earlier to determine the order of questions and closing statements. the format is to encourage a dialogue between the candidates. >> we will talk about the governoring style of the candidates, element and second educati education, the budget and taxes, workforce development, health care, infrastructure, and issues related to each candidate's campaign. our panelist provide background on a topic and pose a question to start the conversation. then candidates will have a turn to ask each other questions. the panelist ask follow-up
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questions to insure clarity and responsiveness in the answers. >> we will begin with exploring the governoring styles of the candidat candidates. kelly starts it off. >> one of the two of you will be the next ceo of the state. what experience have you had in executive management? mr. vitter? >> i managed my senate office for several years and if you talk to folks who interact on a number of issues, particularly louisiana residents, they will say it is a responsive center office. i am hands-on. that is my style and different than jindel who has been said to be aloof. hundreds of thousands have my personal cellphone number.
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i am completely accessible and get into the weeds of important issues. i have great staff to help me. i help direct them. but i get in the weeds and lead them. again, the proof is in the pudding and i think in that, i built a solidht pbte -- a solid background to get it right. >> second air born division. that is an ex executive position
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as commander. when we go to the field and train that number grows to 250. ittee requiring me to call n the meetings and issue the agenda whether it was the military and veteran's special committee in the house of representatives, which i reserected that committee. i worked with veterans from strengthening homes to making sure cemeteries were open and para officers were in place and the veterans could access the services they were entitled to. >> mr. vitter you will ask mr. edwards a question and mr.
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edwards you have a minute to respond and mr. vitter gets a 30 second review. the topic is governing style. >> john bel, you talk about shared sacrifice given the enormous challenges we face as a state. but when i look at your concrete record, and others look, i don't see the shared sacrifice from yourself and other insiders. i see something different. after coming into office, you voted for yourself getting 123% pay raise. you noted for yourself to get a per diem increase. you opposed a bill to mandate governments and illegal gifts. you expressed opposition to the
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concept of term limits. this really does go to governing style. what real sacrifice will you ask of political insiders and politicians? not just hard working taxpayers who have to pay more and more for government. >> senator vitter, you have been lying sideways to the public. you make $40,000 more a year now than when you got elected to the senate. that is more than i make -- you make more per month than i make into year. so i am not taking a back-seat to you on any of the issues you raised. in fact, i voted for every single bill in the first ethics reform special session we had in 2008. so shared sacrifice, absolutely, there is shared sacrifice. i have led my example. i am very proud of the work i have done in the legislature on a whole range of issues.
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and you know, you asked so many different things there rather than one question. but i will tell you as it relates to term limits, i believe that there are term limits already. every office has a certain term whether it is four or six years. and the voters are able to decide if you stay in the office or not. they are able, when they want to, to turn someone out of office. and i think you will experience that pretty soon. >> well, again, i think this illustrates big differences between us in terms of philosophy about governing. i have always fought against the political establishment because quite frankly i think the political establishment is way too isolated from normal voters. they don't understand normal voters every day lives. that is why i fought automatic pay raises, that is why i never joined the congressional retirement system and will never get a penny. that is why i fought the
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obamacare exemption and don't get that subsidy. and led the fight to establish term limits in louisiana. i believe in that concept and think we need to return to citizen legislatures not politics as a profession. >> thank you, mr. vitter. now mr. edwards, it is your turn to pose a question. >> david, in the past 16 years you only passed five of 566 bills you authored. you have been called the most corrupt member of congress and been named the least effective member of both parties and don't show up to work. the best indicator of what someone does tomorrow is what they did yesterday. and you show you are more concerned with helping your friends than being accountable to voters and taxpayers. how is it you don't represent a third bobby jindel term? >> you are completely
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misrepresenting my record. you talk about bills you introduced that passed. you have to look at things i fought for and worked with others on on a bipartisan bases or was a prime author on that did pass. that record of bipartisan accomplishment i will put next to anybody certainly including yours. a water resources bill i co-wrote with barbara boxer of california is important for coastal measures. fixing the flood insurance crisis, i helped lead that effort, yes with others on a bipartisan bases. coastal restoration i have been involved in that and making huge progress made in the last several years to fund the work we need to do. hurricane recovery. i worked non-stop with our delegation, with others, to pull us out of the dark time in terms
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of recovery from katrina and rita. i have a full record of bipartisan accomplishment. >> your rebuttal. >> 5-565 bills does speak for itself. you have been named the least effective members of congress. you have one of the worst att d attendance record of all hundred members in the united states state senate and you said you endorse bobby three times. i like him and respect his leadership and agree with all of this political values is your record. >> follow-up questions, reporters. >> i would like to bring it back to the state legislature and how you will interact with lawmakers. would you all have a plan to testify in front of committees or would you not? >> i would as i said a few minutes ago.
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i am a very hands-on person. i would be interacting with individual legislatures as i do now. most have my personal cell and i interact with them constantly. i would be on the floor or off the floor in committees. that is a different governing style we have seen in the last several years. i exhibited that governor style in the u.s. senate with real effectiveness. >> mr. edwards, would you like to continue? >> i will testify i lead from the front. i lead by example. i will testify in support of the bills i am proposing to the legislature. i will meet with the leadership, and rank and file members of the legislature in the house and senate. i will tell you i have not had a meeting with bobby jindel in many months. >> we need to move on to the next topic. >> k-12 education. jeremy, you have the question.
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>> we have seen significant reforms and changes over the last 20 years including school accountability measures for teachers and students, growth in the recovery school districts, charter schools, and this is in addition to vouchers and school choice mechanisms. aside from common core, could you pick a couple you would keep or strengthen or get rid of from the list i just went through. mr. edwards? >> i will support charter schools. when charter schools help the perishes and the perishes are in need of help. however, i believe in local control of education. i believe that local taxpayers and voters and parents ought to be able to hold their school board members accountable for how dollars are spent and children are educated. if a district has an a or b better grade, i believe they should have the final decision of a new charter school opening in that district or not. if the letter grade is a c, d,
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or f, i think it is probably appropriate for the board to have the opportunity to review and perhaps reverse the denial of that charter application. i also have no plans to end the voucher system. it was unconstitutional when it was passed. i voted against it for that reason and the supreme court held it was unconstitutional. i will not end it but i will confirm to its stated purpose which is to give parents of kids trapped in failing schools a choice. >> jeremy, this is a huge issue where john bel and i have different records. on all of the reform efforts i have been an active leader for charter and voucher scholarships. choice empowers parents particularly from poor families. accountability, i have been in support of that.
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john bel's record is consistent in the opposite direction against charters. he would limit those opportunities as we just admitted voting against the voucher scholarship proposal when it first came up. voting consistently against accou accountability over and over again because fundamentally he has been doing the work and charting the course of the teacher's union not parents, not empowering parents who need it the most. >> thank you, mr. edwards. it is now your opportunity to pose a question to mr. vitter on the education topic. >> just like bobby jindel, you were for common core before being against it. you were a strong supporter and then against it in a fundrais g fundraisinging letter, then for it again, and you now flip-flopped again and want people to believe you are against it.
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you have put your personal interest ahead of the common interest and when the political winds change so do you. just like bobby jindel you put personal ambition over what is best for students and teachers. on this issue, why should louisiana parents trust you today? >> you are talking about common core first of all. it is you who said at the press club, with the respect to the common core standards you were okay with the sarntands. in the advocate you said in 2014 quote the standards are fine close quote. you said there is no conspiracy about common core and this is not a federal takeover of education. you said that about common core. not me. i have a specific plan to get us out of common core and the park test. it has been part of my plan in the race. it is all at davidvitter.com and
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part of my detailed plan on the challenges we face. >> senator, i have been voting against common core since brought to the legislature in 2014. that is my record. 2014 and in 2015. i did make statements such that the standards themselves are not a communist conspiracy but i never said the standards should be adopted without being vetted by parents and educators and made the changes where necessary. that is my record from the beginning. i have been against common core. my voting record is hundred percent consistent on that. i have never flip-flopped. you flip-flopped and flip-flopped again. >> mr. vitter, it is your turn to ask a question on k-12 education. >> i want to go back to the choice in education because i think it is premier civil right issue of time. whether every child in louisiana has the right to a great
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education. as discussed before, you were in favor of limiting the opportunity to establish charter schools and you would not allow it unless an entire system is drf. that would cut out 6800 students in lafayette perish for example who are in d or f schools from being able to enjoy new charter schools. state-wide that is 170,000 kids who are in d or f schools. >> your question? >> you are limiting those charter opportunities. what do you say to those poor families who are not going to get the full charter opportunities because of your specific legislation? >> first of all, when it comes to voucher, i voted against this because it was unconstitutional. my oath of office means something to me. when it says you will support the constitution of the united states and the laws of the state of louisiana i take it
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seriously. my decision was affirmed by the supreme court. money stolen from the local school districts had to be returned so the students could receive the services they were entitled. i believe in local control of education. when a school district is performing well it ought to be in control of the decision of a new charter school opening. otherwise, the creation of a charter school diverts funding away from the programs that made that school district successfully to begin with. i believe that is the right thing to do. because if parent and leaders don't have the ability to hold them accountability it is only a matter of time until they stop authorizing new taxes. >> there are failing schools in the districts you are talking
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about. you will limit and trap the students without more choices and voucher scholarships would give them. the record is the record. you can try to talk a good game but on education you have fought all of these reforms every step of the way. you fought the voucher scholarships. you tried to limit charters. you co-authored at least four different bills to curtail charter schools. certainly accountability. you have not consistently opposed common core but you have opposed accountability and that is what you are trying to point to in terms of supposed opposition of common more. >> thank you. we are out of time on this topic but we go to the next one with kelly and posed to mr. vitter >> louisiana has been dealing with significant budget cuts. the legislature raised more than $700 million in new revenue yet another huge shortfall looms. given where we stand today, do
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we solve the problem by shrinking state government or should we better match revenue with spending? >> kelly, quite frankly we need to do both. i have a balanced approach on both sides of the equation. i laid out the approach months ago in our detailed plan on our website at davidvitter.com. the first thing i would do is call a special legislation session focused on this. i would start on the spending side and have reforms to undedicate most areas of the budget so we can roll up the sleeves and cut the spending in those areas we cannot afford or are wasteful and off limits. that is why higher-ed has cuts that are not porportioniate. and we need to get rid of certain exemptions and credits
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that don't produce for the economy or taxpayers. i think as opposed to john bel i would have a balanced approach that looks at both sides of the equation. >> mr. edwards? >> kelly, we have to do both. you look for new ways to create efficiency and deliver state services with a cost savings. you have to expand the flexibility to allocate cuts across a broader spectrum of the budget so you are not focusing on higher education and health care. you do that by looking at the statutory dedications. but also the constitutional dedications. but those are harder and take longer because you have to get two 3rds vote in the legislature and approvaled by the voters themselves. we will september federal dollars back into the louisiana as well. when they help meet obligations to the people and save us we will do that with the medicaid
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expansi expansion. we will focus on growing the economy and not incentivising the government where there is no growth. the biggest thing is reduce or eliminate tax gave aways that cost too much or don't return. we can create savings to reallocate to high rer priority items >> you may ask the question on budget and tax. >> john bel talks about a balanced approach but his record is different. it is another area where we have completely different records which suggest would lead in different directions. this past year in the legislative session you voted for $2.1 billion in taxes. you have a plan on your website you are touting that is a $1.5
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billion tax increase on the 165,000 families involved. you have never specifically authored a single piece of legislation to undedicate any area of the budget. you have never authored a singleal piece of legislation to cut in those areas. that is not a balanced record. why should voters believe you in saying that you are going to take a balanced approach when the concreate record is very, very different. it is all taxes -- concrete -- >> the voters shouldn't believe you and the ridiculous question you asked with figures you made up. my record is clear. i did vote for the things i talked about. reducing tax give aways that cost too much and don't produce enough return on investment to create savings that we then reallocate to higher priorities like saving lsu, like making
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sure the safety net hospital system stayed open, making sure the medical school in sheave port had the money to continue to operate. those were the hard choices we had to make. i did vote for those measures because they were the right thing to do and consistent with what i said i will continue to do as our governor. we will not stay in this ditch we are in under jindel. we will roll up the sleeves and pull ourselves out and finance our priorities. that is my commitment. >> i asked about a balanced approach and what is on the saving and reform of government side. you talked about a tax measure: getting rid of an exemption. >> your record is all taxes, no budget reform, and no savings.
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that is the record. you have not authored a single bill to undedicate any part of the budget. if i can missing, name the bill. you have not authored a single bill to go into the areas and cut the budget. you have never proposed or led in that effort. but you voted for $2.1 billion in taxes this year and you are proposing more. >> your pledge to out of state interest cause you to repeatedly to vote to send our jobs overseas. jobs of louisiana residents and americans. bobby caused the state's dodge budget to employed. you have been unfaithful to use taxpayers and why should they believe you changed? >> i have taken no pledge to glover nor quest in dealing with challenges in the state budget
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and laid out a truly balanced approach in terms of doing that. you refer to bobby jindel constantly but the fact of the matter is i have on several occasions publically fought, butted heads, and disagreed with bobby on things. his use of one-time money to plug the budget hole, you voted a lot for that, but i opposed him in 2012. i led the charge to stop abusive legacy lutawsuits. i dragged him kicking and screaming to propose and pass that reform. in contrast when have you every publically disagreed strongly with your party leader barack obama? when did you stand up at the 2012 national democratic convention and say he is wrong
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on this? he is wrong on obamacare or gay marriage or anything else? it has never happened in any public way. >> mr. edwards? >> you are wrong. you signed the glover anti-tax reform. you said you have not signed it but you lied. you signed the pledge in washington, d.c. and in fact, i have stood up against the president with respect to the moratorium. i voted for a resolution calling on him to direct the secretary of interior to take that moratorium down. just the other day, i stood up and opposed the decision not to go forward with the keystone pipeline because that is the wrong decision for our country and our state. it would create jobs, allow for energy independence and if you believe sitting here tonight that the president poses the biggest threat to our future in louisiana, you need to stay in wash and deal with that. >> time is over for this topic,
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we need to move on. >> we can continue that conversation because in the next topic we are talking about and that is workforce development. jeremy, your question. >> we have been told there is an industrial boom coming for qualified workers particularly in the technology field. in southwest louisiana there is a need of 35,000 jobs over the next five years. me century link in monroe is trying to bring in engineers and technical workers to fill jobs but are finding it difficult. can you give two or three examples of what you will do to address the need over the next four years? >> this is critically important -- and one generation's time we are going from a time when 25% of people needed education beyond high school to get a good job and now
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that number is two thirds of the people. you have to invest in higher education, four year university and community and technical colleges. the straight of louisiana has cut state support for higher education more than any other state in the nation over the last eight years and raised tuition on its kids more than any other state in the nation in the same time period. that is the perfect recipe for disaster. we have to do better and align the workforce needs with job creation opportunities out there so that kids are getting the education that allows them to have the certified skills and training necessary to land the jobs. we have to do it around the state. you were talking about century ling in monroe. since the end of the session in 2010, job creation is positive but when you get to alexandria
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and north to is zero. a key to address this is invest in the higher education around the state. >> jeremy, i have a lot of proposals on my website. our mari skare -- maritime sector it very important. i proposed structural reform so we would on ports, maritime and have leaders built into led and dot to help me do that. a subcabinet focused on growing those jobs. secondly, we need to be more effective in terms of addressing the burden of litigation. we need litigation reform because we are hurting because of abusive lawsuits led by trial
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lawyers, who by the way are funding vitter's campaign. i laid out reforms for this like texas did in the 1990's and that was a major factor leading to their very robust economy. there are other detail proposals in the plan. >> mr. edwards, question for mr. vitter. >> david, you have consistently voted against job training against louisiana's veterans many who are seeking employment after their dedication and service. what kind of plan is it if you not dedicate your time to this? >> i have a strong record in terms of supporting our veterans. it starts with individual cases. helping them get the proper treatment and benefits they need. i spend a lot of time personally, along with my great staff, helping veterans on those issues with great results. talk to the veterans who have interacted with my office. talk to them and ask them how
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they feel about my representation of them. we are getting community-based clinics >> the question is about job training. >> job training at the va. i sponsored legislation as the chair of the small business community to put increased fluence through the va specifically for veterans as they make the transition from war time to work. i helped lead that effort. >> david, your record is you voted against the gi's educational bill for veterans moving it from $1100 to $1500 in 2008. in 2012 you voted no on the veteran's job core act that
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would have invested 1 billion in veterans. you voted no on the national defense appropriation act to help prepare members of the armed forces for civilian employment. your record is horrible. it is your turn mr. vitter. >> economic development and workforce development is critical. you are trying to portray this myth that you are a conservative or moderate. you are in the middle. you are going to unite and you have a mainstream record. but if you look at the record it is different. leading pro-business groups and economic development groups give you a low score. national federation of independent business, 23% rating. the top economic development group in the state, louisiana association of business and
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industry, 25% lifetime rating. that is lower than mitch and mary landry and bill jefferson. that is the bottom 10% of shh legislature. why should voters think that is a pro-economic, workforce development record, that will grow jobs and the economy? >> theluti louisiana associatio businesses gave 90 legislatures f grades and i was one because it didn't like the way we supported the universities, hospitals and people of louisiana. i will tell you the louisiana association of business and industry is headed by someone who is a very strong supporter and former executive council and chief of staff to bobby jindel. today they endorsed you because they want a third jindel term except they would like to have it on steroids. when it comes to voting records,
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i don't intend to give anybody a hundred percent except for my wife. >> again, john bel, you try to portray yourself as a conservative. the record is the report -- record and it suggests something different. i am not talking about this year giving these f's this year. i am talking about a lifetime rating of 25%. i am talking about comparing that life time rating to mitch landrieu and they all score higher. i am talking about the fact you are in the bottom 10% in terms of ratings about jobs and economic development. that is not conservative or moderate or anything of the like. >> time to move on to another topic and kelly will talk about health care. >> yes, in the realm of education, similary our state
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has seen changes in the way public health care is delivered. would you keep the policies we have now and work out the issues we face or go into different direction all together? mr. vitter? >> you mentioned a few things. the public-private partnerships are a good reform but need work. i specifically have been proactive leading the charge to improve the pub linebacker partnership in louisiana. i support log chip and thing it is important and needs to be in the mix. medicaid expans is a huge issue in this area. we have strong differences on that. john bel would immediately lunge into the medicaid expansion under obamacare and barack obama's terms. i would only consider it under louisiana's terms.
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kentucky's cost soared beyond anything they projected. kentucky's cost are double what they projected. they are facing a budget crisis and just elected a new republican governor largely on that issue. those are the differences. >> i support the move for the public-private partnerships and we have to make it work. the state owes the federal government $190 million because of the plan being illegal to draw down dollars we were not entitled to. we have to strengthen that.
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we went to a manage care plan administered by five insurance companies. we are going to expand the medical program when i am governor. it is the louisiana plan we already reformed it. they would have saved $52 million this year alone. that is how it was scored. 30 states have done it. 13 with republican governors. this isn't right versus left. this is right versus wrong and i will do it as governor. >> the biggest issue around health care is obamacare. the core of obamacare and medicaid expansion. john bel, you have supported all of that including the core m mandates of obamacare. hb-429, clear vote. and that fundamental mandate is what through 98,000 louisiana residents off the health care plans they had and wanted to
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keep. obamacare said no, we are not allowing that. we know better and that is not good enough. that fundamental mandate led to increased in cost. folks are getting their premiums now and they are soaring. what do you say to middle class louisiana families who got thrown off a plan they wanted to keep and face the soaring premiums >> i say the affordable care act came from congress and that is where you sit. we are not voting in louisiana on mandates for obamacare. you are making that up. if you are worried about health insurance premiums going up you should support medicaid expansion. every family with private insurance is paying $1,000 a year extra to pay for the private care and because the hospitals are not getting compensated they are building it into the contracts and that results in higher premiums. we are paying the taxes to the federal government and not accepting them back so that
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250,000 of the worker poor get the benefit of health care coverage with our tax dollars that are instead going to other states that did that we are paying more in terms of private insurance. that is a disaster for this state. we need to do better by our people. we need to bring those dollars home. we need to save the tax dollars in the process. it is just the right thing to do. it is called putting louisiana first and i know that is foreign, david, but we need to do that. >> the record is the record. it is all at lagovernorfacts.com in case you want to look. very specific vote in 2014. hb-429. it was a vote by you and you sided with the president. that is siding with the people of louisiana. that is what through 98,000 louisiana residents off the
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health care they wanted to keep. they used a model i am proposing. they didn't say we will do it under our terms. they negotiated their own terms. you have a chance to pose a question. >> while in congress, you voteded to end medicare for 70,000 louisiana seniors. that has no place in government. the seniors deserve to know whether you plan to balance our budget on their backs as well. how can you justify ending one of the most successful insurance programs in history and ask the seniors to pay more. >> john bel, you know i am for medicaid and have voted to end it as you know it. you know that is the case. this attack is exactly what we hear from the national democrats. i hear this from harry reid over and over on the senate floor. i hear it from barack obama over and over. i never said i want to end made
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care as we know it. i never voted that way. one of several reasons i voted against obamacare is it stole from medicare. it stole $750 billion to create a new entightment and weakened medicare. that is why record on medicare. -- entitlement -- i am proud of my record. you are spreading the old fears and lies of national democrats. we hear it all of the time from harry reid, barack obama and all of the rest. >> you hear it all of the time because it is your record in. in 2013 and 2014 you voted budgets that would turn medicare into voucher system and increased the cost on seniors and made them pay the difference. that is your record. that is the paul ryan budget you have supported. the people of louisiana need to
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know that you will treat them better. they deserve better retirement plans and need a governor who will not budget the balance on their back. >> if we are moving from one thorny topic to another one and that is the state's infrastructure; roads, highways, ports and everything questioned. jeremy? >> i am sure you know what number i am going to say which is $12 billion. the back log of projects in louisiana. there is not enough to address the larger problem. how would you generate more money or is it time to concede this is too big of an issue to deal with? how do we break the tradition?
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>> until you fix the trust fund, it is premature to ask the people of louisiana to pay more whether that is a toll or additional gasoline tax. up to $60 million has been leaving the transportation trust fund not paying for roads and bridges but going to the state police. that is wrong and not the expectation of the taxpayers when they paid the gas taxpayer. i will get the trust fund under control in the first year. i will wean the state police out of the trust fund and that is $60 million. i am increase by 25% the amount of the capital bill and that is an additional $75 million per year. as soon as we do that, we will double the investment in the port priority program from 20
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million to 40 million overnight. that is the right thing to do. once we clean it up and see we don't have enough revenue to go forward and maintain the system we have in terms of highways then and only then will we consider tol tolls or other revenue measures. >> we cannot ask the hard working citizens of louisiana to put more money in the bucket whether there are gaping holes at the bottom of the bucket. that is the situation now and john bell voted for that situation. that is the situation now. last year only 11 cents of every dollar of revenue associated with the state transportation trust fund went to roads and bridges. went to concrete and asphalt. that is ridiculous. i have a detailed plan to change that. it is all at davidvitter.com. i have a second plan to lead an effort among chambers, business
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groups, and leading legislatures to develop a high priority building program. high priority projects in key areas of the state to spur economic development linked to new revenue, tied to that. go to the voters and citizens and say this is what we will build in a finite amount of time. if you support it we will not spend the money any other way. it would go to voters and citizens to earn their approval. >> a question on infrastructure, mr. vitter. >> david, you have been rated the least effective member of congress, the fifth highest absence rate among 554 peers and nowhere does it show in any other area than transportation. you have not helped finish i-49 or back up the projects jeremy asked us about. you even worked against securing
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loan forgiveness after hurricane katrina for local governments. >> why don't you talk to local leaders and officials about my record. you will hear a different story. >> no, i didn't. >> i have been a leader on i-49 including as a high ranking republican on that committee. we have brought significant money to virtually finish i-49 north and to start i-49 south in a major way. through that work on that committee i have helped turn louisiana from a donor state. we were spending more money through federal gas tax to the federal government than we received back whether i went to congress it was about 93 cents on the dollar. we are no longer a donor state. we are getting more back than we send to the federal government because of the reforms and the work i did with others. and there are lots of specific
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projects. la-1, i-49, many critical projects around louisiana, relief in baton rouge and greater new orleans that have benefited as a result. we need to go farther and i am working on a federal highway bill. >> david, the fact of the matter is you have been ineffective in the senate and worked against the local government in louisiana when they sought loan forgiveness after hurricane rita and katrina. >> i secured the loan forgi forgiveness. >> i get my information from the local people who lead the municipalities and perishes. >> mr. vitter, you can continue the conversation with the question. >> john bel is misrepresenting the record. i helped secure the loan forgiveness.
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talk to the leaders who received it in key perishes. but john bel, you are always talking about fighting the former governor, in fact, there have been eight budgets you voted for and supported five of them. on this critical issue of infrastructure they were horrendous and stole from the transportation trust fund. you voted for 5-8 budgets. hundreds of millions and voted for the very budget i was referring to under which only 11 cents of every dollar of that revenue goes to roads and bridges and steel and concrete. why should voters believe as governor you will do something different? lagovernorfacts.com. that is your record. >> i have voted for five budgets and that means i voted more budgets than the vast majority
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of my colleagues. the reason it is different is because i am going to be the governor. i am going to set the priorities. if you don't vote for the budget you don't pass a budget and nothing gets funded. but as governor, i will be able to control the process and make sure with that line item veto we will do the things i am talking about. just the most recent years we voted for revenue to take it clear that the state police can get out of the transportation trust fund. that is going to happen in the first year. zero dollars are going to be aappropriated to the police. that is my commitment to the people of louisiana. we have the revenue in place to make sure that happens. i did support that revenue because i want to be in a position to make sure that we can restore faith and confidence to the people of louisiana in the trust fund.
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>> again, john bel, there is an enormous gap between your rhetoric and the vote. you talk about battling bobby jindel but supported 5-8 of his budgets. you voted for the state fund and it was rated over and over, hundreds of millions, and you voted for the budget under which 11 cents of every dollar, only 11 cents goes to transportation, and everything else is rated. that is the record. your red -- rhetoric is different. >> gentlemen, we have come to the last topic of the evening. time constraints say let's each do 30 second response on the first question. i give it to the reporters. >> gentlemen, both of you in recent forums have discussed
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trackers following you and your family with video camera and the media in louisiana is writing about private investigators. have you and your campaign hired professionals to carry out the such behavior? if so, have they done anything you regret? >> it is the reality of campaigns i have lived with for years. i have lived with the trackers for many years and they associated with every campaign. we have not directly hired them. but others in support of my campai campaign. it is a free country. in terms of negative campaigns. there is nobody who has been the target of more negative campaigning than me. there are eight different
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entities attacking me. three in the primary, three of their assoc aceationsation -- association. >> the short answer is no. senator vitter spent $156,000 on private investigation and lied saying the money was spent on legal fees. he said it is free country and he is sending private investigators to spy on the sheriff. louisiana doesn't need more scandal. i urge everybody to go to www.ltv.com and watch the cferee given. >> a question for mr. edwards. >> john bel, follow up on this. you never hired the parts but the state democratic party does
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it on your behalf. you say you don't do negative campaigning but you have the most vicious negative ad up that veterans have been offended by and asked you to take at a down. you have nothing to do with the trial lawyer pac that has been running negative campaigns in the millions of dollars for months. isn't that disingenuine? you are not living by the honor code. you are living by the lawyers' code trying to parse words. >> mr. vitter, a question. >> nors -- my campaign has not played for a tracker or private investigator. i have not seen any footage of you anywhere from a tracker.
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i understand you don't like it. it hits you where you live. >> i am not talking about me saying anything. you have missing out on your deals in congress in order to engage extra curriculum activities. >> >> you said the trial lawyers were working for jay garden. now it is benefiting you to say they are working for me. >> let's each one of you who have had a chance to ask a question we are almost to the closing comments. why don't you get 30 seconds and
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you get 30 seconds. 30 seconds, vitter. >> again, john bel, you are being dis-in genuine to suggest the trial lawyers are not doing your dirty work. you are living by on honor code of technicality. >> i am not suggesting anything. i am not looking at video foot null from you. have haven't hired a private investigator to go after you. the last part of the honor code is i will not tolerate those who do. you are a liar. and a cheater >> what have you said -- >> i don't tolerate that. >> if you don't agree with tlar behavior why are you tolerating and benefiting from their
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behavior? what we will do now is go to closing remarks. we are just about out of time for the hour debate. we thank you for your candid and energetic commentary. we will go to the closing remarks. >> this is certainly an important election. we have two candidates for governor. john bel edwards and myself who could not offer more starkly different voting records and political philosophy and therefore directions in which we would lead the state. it is pretty clear that john bel edwards wants to talk about anything but the future. he wants to talk about anything about those records and philosophies and where we would lead the state. that is because his campaign is built on a myth that he is some sort of conservative and we
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don't differ much on the issues when we absolutely do. so, i humbly ask for your vote and support and ask you look on the key issues and how we differ on job creation. his ranking is at the bottom of the barrel. on education my support of charter and accountability and reforms and john bel has the opposite record supporting the teachers's unions not parents, families and children. >> thank you. mr. edwards? >> i want to thank the veterans. we are on the eve of veteran's day and i want to thank them for the service of the country. when i decided to serve the country nobody asked if was a democrat or republican. which candidate is best able to lead the state right now after eight years of miserable failed
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poliauolicie policies? leadership to bring the people together, performance agreement, and tackle the biggest problems and challenges and provide real opportunity for our children in louisiana. that is my record in the legislature as a leader. i will fight against anyone of any party when they do harm to use. and i will find along the side of anyone of any party when they want to do our state good. ...
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at dhs inspector general in 2013, cbp monitors report, states that initial estimates of deployed rpms showed an average useful life expectancy of 10 years. what we hear repeatedly from our port members is the lack of clarity in funding and in administering the rp rpm progra.
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it has become a real hindrance and how we protect our ports. we are fast coming to the end of the first generation of rpms life expectancy. ports such as tail but, jacksonville, long beach, new york, new jersey, mobile of all reported comes to discussions with the regional cbp officers found ongoing responsibility related to rpms. a recent example is the port of jacksonville where cbp requested that jacksonville is in financial responsibility for the rpm technology sustainment, hardware, software, and conductivity. this is a significant -- this is significant given the complex and critical nature of these federally owned and currently maintained systems. other ports are reporting similar disruptions in the rpm program. there's too much at stake for ports and cbp officers to have
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to engage in policy and funding negotiations. congress and the administration must set a clear path on the rpm program. rpm detection is a federally mandated program. cbp should request adequate federal funding to purchase, install and maintain all rpm equipment at ports throughout the united states. if this is not feasible, and the department of homeland security should consider the creation of a standalone priority within the port security grant program titled radiation, detection, portal monitors or expand upon the core capability allow ports request security grant funding in support of the purchase and installation of radiation detection portals. regarding the forced to go to grant program, many port authorities have utilized the port security grant program to
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secure radiological and nuclear detection equipment. personal edition detection devices the first responders were on the belt, isotope identifiers that are used to identify -- unsophisticated accpac detection device are some of the items required for the grant program. these items proposal to cbp's effort but also enhance law enforcement role in the coast guard small vessel radney detection program that i would urge congress to restore the funding to its original level and maintain the port security grant program as a standalone homeland security grant program. additionally, we encourage that whenever possible the grants go directly to the ports so that our security facilities will have the necessary resources to fully implement their security programs. in conclusion, we must provide
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law enforcement agencies such as the cbp and our port security directors with all the tools and resources necessary to succeed. i appreciate the opportunity to testify here today and i look forward to answering any questions that you might have. thank you. >> the final witness is director of the center for resilience studies with northeastern university. you are recognize, doctor flynn. >> come on back user to back to back boston accents here now coming at you. i've been at this for about 30 years first as a coast guard officer, retired, napoleon northeastern university where with the support of the macarthur foundation i am look at the growing risk of managing the threat to global supply chains by the risk of radioactive material as well as weapons of mass destruction. i'm honored to be here today. it's my assessment the threat of a dirty bomb fuels poor remains the court and present danger.
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simply stated, current u.s. efforts are not up to the task of preventing a determined advocate of exploiting the global supply system and setting off a dirty bomb in a u.s. port. if a dirty bomb was set off would not be so much of a weapon of mass destruction as would be of one of mass destruction. there would be three immediate consequence associated with this attack. for it would be local deaths and injuries associate with a blast. second, it would begin our mental damage and extreme high cleanup cost. as dr. potter was laying out, we don't have standards for coping with the aftermath. third that would be what i call the morning after problem. that is, since there would be no way of determining where the compromise that led to the incident happened within to secure the system, we would have to outcomes. one, the entire supply chain, although transportation nodes would be presumed to be potential at the risk of potential follow-on attacks. further it would call into question all the support
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initiatives that the first panel talked about today. on march 20, 2006, nearly a decade ago, this is mike 29th time talking of these issues before congress since 9/11, i outlined this in your that has been for by my own research as well as insights by gary gilbert osha but that is a good committee of hudson for holdings. i include in the test went before the senate from the subcommittee on investigations the following senator. a container of athletic footwear from a namebrand company is loaded out of the manufacture plant in indonesia. the container doors are shut and the mechanical seal is put into the doors padlocks. these designer sneakers are destined to retail stores in malls across america. the container and seal numbers are recorded, and local truck driver sympathetic to al-qaeda picks up the container. on the way to the port he turns into an alleyway and backs up the truck at a nondescript warehouse where smoking offered
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prizes one of the door hinges to open the container so they can gain access. summon the sneakers were removed and in the places they load a dirty bomb wrapped in lead shielding which will defeat the radiation portal monitoring and in every facet the door. the driver takes the container to the port where it is loaded on a ship containing the three other containers to a voyage. the container stretch between interagency ship typically carry 12 to 1500 containers to hong kong. is loaded on a super container ship that carries 5000 to 8000 containers. the containers is offloaded in vancouver, british columbia, then loaded truck on to pacific rocard where it is shipped to chicago. because of dirty bomb issue of the lead to radiation portal is deployed along the border do not detected. when it reaches its distribution center in chicago, a triggering device sets the bomb off. this sunday remains as realistic
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today as it was in 2006. it exploits a long-standing vulnerability that still remains unaddressed. the ability of smugglers to target a containerized shipment while visiting transport by a local truck from the factory to a logistics center where it originates, from a local truck to the factory to the port where it is loaded aboard a vessel. once the truck leaves the factory, there are few controls in place for preventing shipment from being diverted before it arrives in port. particularly if the drive has been recruited, bribed or intimidated into cooperating with the terrorist group. the container doors are typically secure with a number of seal that we purchase involving for about $1.50. even if the bolt seal is left in place com, the door hinges can e removed or the thin metal skin can be breached so they can put the bomb in the box. i speculated the hypothetical
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terrorist group would purposely target a container from a known shipper. i did this for two reasons. you can count on the fact it is unlikely that cbp will subject the container to any physical security as originated from a well-established company. we have heard about the risk management system and if it has no past record of smuggling, there's virtually no chance it will take anybody's radar screen as a container to be checked. such a shipment would begin to be low risk and identified for overseas portable inspection or section in vancouver when it is offloaded to u.s. bound train. by exploiting the container from a known shipper, a terrorist group can be confident they can generate the maximum amount of fear that all containers previously viewed as low risk not be judged as potentially high risk. and by the inevitable sensational media coverage, governors, mayors and american people would place no faith in existing, the entire risk minute
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regime erected since 9/11 that i want to emphasize that this is why potentially a thoughtful anniversary would put a dirty bomb in a box versus in a small boat. it's because the goal is not to get the bomb into the tiny. it is to disrupt the global supply chain system by how we would respond in the aftermath. what we would see is that if we are spooked, there's a bomb in the box, arthur of the bombs in boxes, we would basically freeze the system to sort it out. not just one foreclosure but certainly almost all foreclosures. we can check the boxes until their offloaded by the oil you can check them is that their offloaded. overseas you can't just basically freeze the system. you are stuck with you cannot say new ships into the us, if it's backed up, can't receive new boxes from trains and trucks. essential with intent to two weeks the entire system goes into gridlock. the impact of that is disruption
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of our global commerce on a huge scale. so what would we do? the real threat is essentially not an attack, is not so much the attack as significant as not likely to be. the risk of mass destruction to international commerce that would follow such an attack. the two steps i outlined in my testimony. u.s. government needs to ship its instances to one to focus a primer on u.s.-bound cargo to one that advances the overall supply system at large. there's a rationale for doing this but everybody signed up to prevent the proliferation of weapons and materials around the planet, specifically all countries are signed on to the entity resolution 1540, requires that nation take action to detect outbound shipments, illicit nuclear radiological materials. we have the international rationale. let's get on with this at a global scale. secondly, the u.s. government needs to focus on the
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participation of private industry that owns and operates the port terminals and transportation conveyances that would supply chains. to have the ration of to do this. it's primarily a public sector responsibility to work this but the private sector has a critical role to play. the foiled october 2010 bomb plot in printer cartridges make the case being aftermath was on the air cargo industry working with u.s. and european authorities to significant step up to scrutiny of air cargo. and maritime transportation system in short is a highly concentrated system with a few large port terminal operators and ocean courage responsible for handling the vast majority of global cargo. with support, discovered the potential take on a leadership role for deploy the technologies and tools on a global scale by providing a near real-time
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visibility and accountability for location of all cargo. what they would need is these recovered the associate cost three fee-for-service requirement that is borne by importers and exporters. the estimated cost ranges from three to $5 billion. given that there's millions of containers moving through we're talking about 10 to $15 for box cost largely to do this or less than disputed surcharge i had from flying to this hearing today. in conclusion, the risk of an accident exploding at the exploiting the supply system remains clear and present. the destruction is such potential, such an attack would generate those will be on the local port, ripple through the entire transportation system and be disastrous for global trade. mistakes for the united states national security, economic security could not be higher. recent urgent need to holster and build upon the many post-9/11 initiative which aims to bring, and encompasses a good
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and maritime transportation system. in the individual the networks require trust to operate and we've got to work on ensuring we can survive that trust in the event of a dirty bomb going off in port. thanks so much. >> thank you, doctor. thanks to my colleagues are stick and rudder are stick and rudder, and ask a quick question and pass it off for a foot else can get a question in before everybody has to leave. i guess the question is this. if you're going to have a nuclear weapon coming commentary or not, it's going to be shielded and if it's not i would, i would recommend to our enemies that they shield of wes selby easier to see. i would think smart people would shield it. can you still see it? >> good question that i cover that all of it in my testimony. bombs are not eaily shielded from inspection by neutrons. as i said if you keep a neutrons
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fast enough, that aside of energy, they are not effected by absorbers. neutrons can go through a whole ship without hardly slowing down. the tricky part is what are called moderators, things that reduce the energy of the neutrons. if a bomb was back in a bunch of moderate of the two, carbon or something like that, they can slow neutrons, enough of it could finally slow the neutrons down to where not enough of them would penetrate into the court to give you a good nuclear signature. it's not a precise number but a foot or so of carbon outside the device may be could affect a sort of slowing down. but there are two things that you have to consider.
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one is that by the time you have a few feet of carbon on either side of the device, block the container that it's in, and that in itself would be a signal that someone had tried to do this. it's not easy. it's not an easy thing to do. the other thing is, it's a technical point but when neutrons bounce off a moderator by carbon, they produce the spectrum, dance of energy that pop out that are easily detectable. the spacing of the energy vans are good indicator of what kind of moderator the person is using to try to beat you, at the number of those bands tell you how thick the moderator is. so that's the game that they would play. is not an easy game for the adversary. that's all i can do. >> there's a company called
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decision sciences that is able to since nuclear stuff inside really thick lead. but you've got to be in the system. you can't walk around and scan stuff. it's got to be within a simply one of those drive-through systems to do this but it takes more than just a drive through. it takes a couple of seconds. >> if i may quickly, neutrons like to go through anything. they particularly like to go through steel and lead and stuff like that. so the order shielding which is very effective for dirty bombs and even uranium, in its natural state, as it's just emanating gather raised, all of those things -- gamma rays -- which are effective otherwise are not very effective against the approach i'm using here with neutrons. somebody has to really, really go out of their way with a thought to try to knock the
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signal down. >> but these hand-held detectors wouldn't send something if it was in carbon or lead. it would take an actual scanning system to do that, right? the handheld cb be detectors will not be fixed up if it's in a key eu? >> no, sir. the trick with neutron detection of any kind is that you put a signal in, which is their magnifier signal and then the neutrons come out. and so you are stimulating very gently the fissile material to produce a signal that would not be there in the case of if he didn't stimulate it spent the only way is through one of these drive-through systems, meaning none of this is going to happen by handheld device if someone is holding walking around or a belt device. all of this only comes even the best we can do through like a drive-through scanning system, right?
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where you can spread it with neutrons and then have that red, right? >> that's right. there's no free lunch. udaap to produce the measurements, but the fact is that the neutrons are not very hard to produce. the trick is knowing that you do both put them where you want them and collect them in a smart way. >> i'm going to you because i'm out of time. >> apparently the bottom line of your test when is that a compact neutron inspection can't work. we are not presently deployed those, is that correct? >> no, sir. as i say, we kind of went off on a tangent that was not very productive. it's only been, sitting around scratching my head for a long time, it sort of gave me the idea, as my old professor always used a dummy, the hardest thing about doing something is
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unlearning what you thought it'd we are going to do this right along because were out of time. dr. potter, you seem to think that domestic steps need to be taken. cesium chloride specifically? >> there was a national academy study was done some years ago now pointing out the difficult, they need to protect chloride sources that the united states, yes. >> so we drew our attention to that issue. and presumably we will avoid dealing with that problem. which is not a good solution. and, finally, doctor wallace, it comes down to money, doesn't it, or mr. lawless. whwho's going to pay for the detectors the kind mr. canavan is talking about, or domestically, cesium chloride? how much money do need to put
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the detectors and maintained in? >> that's a difficult question to answer. i would suggest that the government-funded these research projects like these drive-through portals that we would see that could detect neurons and gamma rays at the same time. we are invested working to develop a state-of-the-art detection system. in the port of boston. but there's definitely money needed to fund these programs. it has to be clarity to undertake the systems. they are federally mandated systems, and the port believe the federal government should be paying cbp to fund these projects. >> dr. flynn's went about 10 to $15 on his content. i'm sure you have an opinion on that. >> yes. >> all right. i would just go back to where i
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started, we make choices around you and we're looking to spend $3.5 billion for a missile defense system for the east coast to do with the iran nuclear weapons which presumably are not going to be available for some decades. thank you, mr. chairman. i yield. >> thank the gentleman. ms. hahn is recognized. >> thank you. dr. flynn, thank you for being here today. i have followed your work and read a lot of what you have written as again i represent the port of los angeles and i'm always very concerned that as you said, the containers security initiative scans less than 1% of u.s.-bound cargo. do you believe that scanning at the point of origin is effective, 100% effective, or
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should we be investing more in that scanning at our domestic courts? >> this is an issue so high we should look at dealing with this across the board. relative to we spoke, this ranks right up there. i think given a consequence we laid out. i spent a good bit of time in the port of l.a. and long beach and you get the sense of scale about what's going on. but the problem would be in this dirty bomb scenario where if we spread office around how would you work in the port, as well as of course -- when you leave the terminal, we like to ideally have that when people drive in the terminal educated for just u.s. you have to do for everything and that's what does counter proliferation value to doing
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this because most of the stuff it worried about proliferation is not going to the united states, it's going to rent. to the extent that the national security affairs trying to get visibility into what moves through the intermodal transportation should be keep your so let's be clear right now with the numbers, 2013 the numbers of cbp inspections overseas into thin 50 porcher was one of 3000 defeated by the by 365 days and 50 port we're talking five containers per report per day of being examined overseas under that system. it's five at a. if you've been to places like singapore or shanghai or others, it may be up a little bit. the current approaches are going to identify the risk and pop the box and take it to a government inspection facility if you bake it into the operation of the terminal you collect this in real-time. it doesn't mean you to look at images every time. what you do is get those and you
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to risk based approach to it much of a much greater degree of confidence about deterring this risk but also ultimately finding things when they go wrong and intercepted the worst case, even isolating the incident afterwards so you don't shut down the whole system. so it's just so much of it can be done, should be done, that is not being done. >> i appreciate the warning. and as you commented, what you also did in the first panel, was the threat to global economy is significant, particularly something happened at long beach and los angeles that we know what the impact would have on not just our national economy of the global economy. i was going to ask one more, dr. canavan. i think the biggest issue that everyone tells me while we can't have 100% scanning is that in some way that would impede, slow down commerce, and we just can't afford that.
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i do have a bill that would provide grants to two ports in this country that would voluntarily decide to government 100% scanning with the technology that we have available just to i sort of want to prove to everybody wrong actually we can do this and not impede commerce in a way that would really impact the economy. but is there technology of that that you spoke about, which one of those technologies could work, and also not impede commerce? >> well, there's sort of, there's one technology i talk about that's interrogation with neutrons. i think he would fill the requirements of you are sort of setting down there. i always kind of like, have these heavy cranes that move things around. i would like to put my little source on one leg of the thing
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at the detector on the other. while it's moving around, plenty of time. it does inspection in seconds or milliseconds and is very fast. the other thing i also like is the think i mentioned briefly is mount the little source of detector on the balkans of the ship and then put sort of one per canister so that you could keep track of what happens to the canister the whole time it out at sea. so i think sure, you could do that, but i have improved it. i've tried to tell you, i think the physics is okay. >> thank you very much. >> ms. brownley is recognized. >> thank you, mr. chairman. dr. flynn, your points and your testimony i think were well taken that not an attack just on u.s. soil but an attack on trade and interrupting goods movement
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in our country. and i'm just wondering if you have, you know, very specific recommendations for how individual ports and the businesses within those ports can really prepare for or prepare for a contingency plan in the event that we did have an attack. and also specific recommendations for how governmental agencies and what they should be doing for contingency as well. >> i really applaud the question and the focus, because unless we assume that this is a zero chance that this will happen, that we will have a nuclear event, we should have a plan. that's something we can do. it's not a huge cost issue. if the heavy coordination issue and a collaboration issue. the court challenge to that isolate it in my testimony, this is a global system sort of running on steroids. if you disrupted at any point
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come a cascade across the system so there's a lot of choreography. right now the u.s. government has no plan to deal with this beyond u.s. borders. there is a global strategy the president put out, i think the world then this strategy. it's four and a half pages. it basically says we should have a plan but they is executed on that -- but then no one is executed on the. clearly is raising the awareness about what this event would look like and then mechanics about how do we deal with the immediacy of the dirty bomb, what's safe? this is something a community can't sal because the u.s. government has to set what standards are for standard. the coordination is heavily between the industry that runs the system and the port authorities and local authorities and the government authorities who managed the system. there we have very limited visibility about how it works. what makes this i think a unique
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and challenging issue for critical infrastructure is that 90% plus is internationally held, not u.s. old. went to coordinate therefore with those key players. this is a concert interest. there are roughly five terminal operators that move about 80% of all the goods and attorney. you don't have to go to 180 nations to you go to five companies. that are basically 20 ocean carriers that matter. you can work with 20 ceos. with a look at this as a government-to-government issue when it really isn't international private system that would have to the capability. in our financial meltdown of 2008 with central bankers who could manage the morning after. it was messy but we have a system. we have no such system for managing a major disruptive event. that transcends anything the agency tha do we do this morninf
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their jobs to do. that is a higher order national security and economic security issue for us to wrestle with. >> and you had mentioned we should be listening to industry and businesses clearly in terms of what they believe are the right am what's the right direction and the right plans for contingency. duty of any idea what they i guess would suggest? in the earlier testimony they said if we had an incident we would just come industry would just respond, and that would be the contingency plan. >> i have talked to the ceos of the largest terminal operators. if there's a plan they willing to engage on the plants. it's a business continuity issue. if there's a cost recovery mechanism for deploying, they willing to do that. i had to colleagues looking at two choices than the one we have right now where we would select a box out of the container and send it to get inspected, a very
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small percentage. or one where you stand all of them. .com operator said it easier for me to scan them all. so in some places it turns out doing more is easier. the economics worked better. and in other places you are probably not going to have that same level of buy-in and the uw's that approach. it would not be a one size fits all but we have a conversation with indicia, it comes out a lot different. and here it's an engineering problem. it's an operational problem with syntactical complexities but it's not insolvable. we should not be throwing our hands up in the air and say let's just hope it should never happen. shame on us if it does happen. >> thank you very much and i will yield back, mr. chairman. >> thank the gentlelady. we have run out of members. by the way this is not a bad showing for the day. it usually is just me and john
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sitting here. thank you very much for what you all do for the country and for industry, and thanks for being here. with that the hearing is adjourned. [inaudible conversations] >> today the federal suicide on civil rights, criminal justice and police relations with the community to that's live at 12:15 p.m. eastern on c-span2. >> energy secretary ernest linnaeus will preview the upcoming climate summit being held in paris later this month. starting at 2:30 p.m. eastern here on c-span2. c-span drove to the white house coverage continues today live from orlando at the republican party of florida is sunshine summit. the two-day event brings together presidential candidates along with florida's state and
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federal elected officials. this morning at 10:30 a.m. the line up includes florida senator our caribbean, texas senator ted cruz, south carolina senator lindsey graham, former arkansas governor mike huckabee, former florida governor jeb bush, donald trump and ben carson you can live on saturday morning starting at 10 eastern more from the republican sunshine summit with former pennsylvania senator rick santorum, louisiana governor bob agenda, kentucky senator rand paul, new jersey governor chris christie, ohio governor john kasich and carly fiorina. stay with c-span for campaign 2016, taking you on the road to the white house on tv, on the radio and c-span.org. >> elections in turkey were held on november 1 and the ruling akp party restored its majority in parliament. next, discussion of election
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results, the future the country, relations with the u.s. and what it means for the fight against i suspect the bipartisan policy center and johns hopkins school of advanced international studies hosted this 90 minute event. >> [inaudible conversations] >> ladies and gentlemen, my name is mamuka tsereteli. i am regional director at the caucasus institute are welcome to johns hopkins university's school of advanced international studies, central asia caucasus institute. we are here today to discuss joint project of central asia
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caucasus institute at bipartisan policy center on turkeys -- turkey transform, the origins and radicalization on akp party. bpc, bipartisa bipartisan polic, published this report shortly before the november 1 election and report is available at bipartisanpolicy.org as well as online. copies available online. they are also copies outside. i also wanted to mention that central asia caucasus institute has been publishing, i know the turkey analyst, biweekly now we have weekly. is available also www.turkey analyst.org. one organizational statement that we have next forum caucasus
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institute on november 1 18th of that is dedicated to environmental issues, that affect the country of georgia. i will start very brief introduction by saying that there's no need probably to talk to much about turkey for very important critical regions stretch between central asia to middle east. turkeys important for security, military, political, economic, energy traffic and other perspectives so it is important strategic country and what is happening in turkey is important for turkey itself odyssey but also for its neighbors, for the united states having interest in the area as well. that explains public interest towards important elections in turkey. held in early november but we all know the results of the election. turkish president or the one at
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his party weekend parliamentary majority -- erdogan in a landslide victory. and actually the results outperformed oedipal and surprised u.n. very seasoned analyst. they've given erdogan justice and is developing party, akp party, mandate to govern. the national manifested itself on november 1 in favor of stability. that was the statement of president erdogan after the elections. our forum today is focused on the meaning of this election for turkey short-term and long-term perspective and what it means also for other actors all around the world. we have a very distinguished panel, speakers include our first speaker is ambassador eric edelman who is ideally suited for tonight's task because he was positioned in bipartisan policy center as co-chair of
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turkey task force at bpc and testing which color at the sais. he hold a ph.d from yale injudicious ambassador to turkey in 2002-2000 but as with understood defense for policy between 2005-2009. he will be followed by two authors of the study, one is our director for central asia caucasus institute, doctor svante cornell, expert in turkey world in general and people to be decreed from the middle east technical university. the other is blaise misztal, director of foreign policy at bipartisan policy center. we are also fortunate to commentators today who are not drug involved in the report but who are members of the bipartisan policy center's turkey task force. this is alan makovsky, longtime
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turkey observer who served in the state department in intelligence and research from 93-94 cofounded the turkey research program and later served as top middle east adviser on house foreign affairs committee. finally, last but not least is john hannah, senior counsel at the foundation for defense of democracies. john has a long career in government, state department as well as deputy national security advisor and later the initial sacred adviser. without further delay, ambassador. >> well, thank you and let me just say at the outset of course i delete just love it after six -- i have delete just a little after six but i would feel worse about that were it not for the fact if i were not sitting on a panel with a group of people with whom i've worked on on this
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and other subjects for many, many years but i know the audience will be well served, probably better served in my absence. let me start actually with a couple of comments about the report and why we decided at the task force that i co-chair with the bipartisan policy center write the report, and then make a few comments about what it might say about turkey's prospects postelection. a couple of years ago we did a report which looked at the ideological origins of turkish foreign policy. and this was in the context of a foreign policy that has begun under them prime minister, or foreign minister, now prime minister that turkey should have no problem with its neighbors and that should be the model of
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turkish foreign policy, zero problems with neighbors. and that policy had overtime more into a policy which turkey seem to have many problems with all of its neighbors, and a particular seemed to develop a foreign policy that was more marked by sectarian allegiances in the neighboring region that it was by the initial injunction to avoid problems with neighbors. and in the course of preparing a that report, i think it occurred to several of us that it might also be useful to look into the ideological origins of what appeared to be driving a greater trend toward authoritarian behavior in president erdogan and in the government of akp in turkey. does it seem to us that so much of turkish foreign policy
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behavior could not really be explained without reference to what was going on domestically in turkish society. and the turkish policy. so we undertook to write this report, which i think i committed to everybody. i think it's quite illuminating. i think we were able to have a panel a week or so ago before the election in turkey with some very distinguished commentators, professor michael reynolds of princeton and the former economist correspondent in turkey who i think both agreed that this paper has a lot to tell people, including people who know a lot about turkey, about from whence springs some of what we see in turkeys current political circumstances, the changes we see going on in
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the immediate environment, changes we see going on in education policy, et cetera. the paper i think serves as a useful backdrop to the election, and as was mentioned a minute ago, i don't think very many observers saw this election result coming in effect between the june election and the november election, the akp party gained about 5 million votes. it went from about 40% of the share of the vote to about 49.4%. turkey has a tradition of free and fair elections, and it's hard to imagine, although there was some vote stealing in the municipal election a year or so ago that appears to have been more significant than usual, it's hard to imagine that 5 million votes were stolen in this election.
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but that being said t it would e very hard to characterize this election as a fair election. it's hard to characterize it as a fair election both because of the atmosphere of violence and intimidation under which the election campaign took place. i have in mind the burning and looting of over 200 officers of the htp, the kurdish party in turkey. i have in mind the demonstration by thuggish elements of, supporting the akp party against mainstream media outlets. and, of course, just days before the election the takeover of the media offices with the use of tear gas and arrests of journalists, are hardly the kind of environment in which a fair election can take place. and that's not to mention the
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high level of violence in the southeast, almost as hot as what we used to see back in the 1980s, makes it very difficult to imagine a fair election being held in the southeast where a very large number of the countries kurdish voters reside. so in light of that what do we find ourselves facing? now although this victory as i said was not foreseen by others, that must've been about 30 or 40 polls taken between june and november 1. not one predicted this outcome. i think i saw in people with something like 47% for akp, and that was very much an outlier. what it tells you is even with this very large victory, the prime minister and the president have received 49% of the vote.
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and indicates i think that turkey remains a very, very deeply divided society. and what that requires in my view, to move turkey forward, to be the kind of society that we would like to see it be, the kind of democratic pluralistic partner for the united states that we need it to be in the middle east, that the government would approach the task of governing in a spirit of reconciliation, of political differences and emphasis on peaceful reconciliation of differences and a concern for pluralism and tolerance in turkish society rather than the overheated rhetoric over the last couple of years. indeed i think that's what prime minister davutoglu perhaps would see given some comments he's
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made after the election but i'm fearful that's not the result we are likely to see. one i think the findings of the two papers of which i referred is that president erdogan unfortunate passing view of democracy, having won an election as he won and his opponents lost and now he gets to govern in whatever way he sees fit. and i think that is likely to carry turkey further in the direction of greater polarization, increase violence, and perhaps worse. and less that trend is arrested. i hope i'm wrong. i would be delighted to be proven wrong, but i'm afraid that given what we've seen over the last few years it's hard to imagine him approaching this in any other way.
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i think that makes it incumbent upon the united states to make clear in its interactions both privately and publicly with the government of turkey the importance we attach to freedom of expression, to the rule of law, to a fair regard for other opinions and turkish society, and for a spirit of tolerance to be a guiding force in the turkish government's policies, rather than the efforts to eliminate criticism, crackdown on the media, paint opponents with a very broad brush as terrorists, supporters of terrorists. and that's what i hope we will see from the u.s. government, although i'm not very sanguine about that either. i'm going to stop there. >> doctor cornell.
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>> thank you. thank you, ambassador edelman for your comments. i think my starting point if you will in a retrospective of where turkey is today compared to the promise of the akp stood for and represented about 15 years ago when they came out of the political scene. of course, the akp had broken from the islamist movement of which it had been a part, embraced membership in the eu, or the idea of membership in the eu, embraced democracy and a promised to break the semi-authoritarian system in turkey introduced a true liberal democracy. and especially in the post-9/11 period when there was a close for the moderate muslims around the world, what could be better than what the atp promised to be? of course what we see today is that turkey, president erdogan
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is a new turkey project is very far from what they were saying then, what the western observers of what turkish liberals believed when they provided support, endorsement of the akp. ambassador edelman to do some of the details of it we saw just before entering -- before and during this election. i would add win 100 people or more are killed by a suicide bomber at a demonstration in the capital of the city we see please respond by shooting tear gas and water cannons at the dead and injured and hindering in practice the first response from coming to the scene. this is something very different from what we expected. what we are seeing with this new turkey, the new turkey project of president erdogan and prime minister davutoglu is we go into quite some detail the report is twin processes if you will chronologically. first the deepening of authoritarianism and coupled with that secret process of
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accelerated islamization. i think my colleague will think more about the authoritarian governments of this system, but i would say it's very often noted that the turkey that existed for the akp wasn't ideal. that wasn't semi-authoritarian system as well and that's a fair point. on that note however i think it's not the love of authoritarianism by the nature of authoritarianism that made the first. the old system that existed in turkey was built not on individual persons but on institutions. it was rather predictable. there was a structure to the system that existed, and to a considerable degree to was built on laws. you can disagree with those laws and to think most people in the west did disagree with some of the system but it was enshrined in the constitution with national security council, of course, anti-terror laws and everything else. what we are see seeing now is a different type of the return system that is centered around
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one individual. and that makes it much more volatile, nixon much more unstable because even with 317 seats in the parliament, president erdogan is not a position to achieve the system that actually had said is already de facto in existence in turkey and the one we should change the constitution to reflect. these governing in a way that is completely different from what the constitutional system of turkey is mandating. i think the institutionalization of power may be the most dangerous facet of what's going on in turkey today. in the study would also go into some detail about what for a long time was the dog that didn't bark, namely many secularists were crying wolf about or so it seemed 10 or 15 days ago but didn't seem to happen. but especially after 2011 elections we see a clear change, and acceleration of these
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processes. two issues we particularly discuss our what is the education reform. there's been a massive reversal of the secularizing reforms of the education system in the late 1990s after the military intervention of 1997 with a great insertion of religious content into the regular school system in turkey, but in parallel without the rebuilding of it directly religious school system run very much under the supervision of the foundation is run by the erdogan family. in this process we see, for example, the transformation of regular schools into the religious schools against the wishes of the people who have the kids in those schools. we see an education system that tries to push people into the religious school from the regular school system. the second element of this is the role of the state director for religious affairs, which is
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an institution that existed from the early republican in order to control religion, and what's happened is that it was built for controlling religion and, in fact, is being used to propagate the mainstream sunni form of islam that is majoritarian version in turkey. probably 60-65% of turks belong to this school of islam but not the rest of the population. in a secular state you have a directorate of religious affairs that only promotes one form of religion, sunni islam and that is grown tremendously in size but also in public profile. it issues certificates for example, there's a 1-800 number you can call in turkey and ask if any of your finger planted it is in accordance with islamic principles and laws. whether lotteries are legal, whether celebrating the new year is legal, whether it was a paper so to speak is in conformity
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with islam are all issues that have weighed in on. that does not carry any legal weight and the turkish system but it has a strong form of authority in for man me over soy and i think that's very noteworthy. there's also been a massive expansion of iran courses under the akp and also -- koran courses. only available for children over the age of 12, any kind of limitations of age for the facility in which they can be held, training of teachers for these courses have been more or less dismantled which has changed very much the situation. and, finally, i think regarding, there was a chairman who is a neutral person whereas now we very poorly see the leadership is very much supportive of the policies of the government. there's also an increasing staffing of the organization by people belong to the religious
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order. anthere other facets of islamization. the attitude of the role of women in public life under the akp is one example. there's also the increasing role of crony capitalism that is seeking to move ownership of the economy and erdogan old words from the old elite to the new daily. as noted the policy, special with regard to syria but also places like libya where turkey is bound to be supportive of jihadi groups. now, in trying to understand why this is happening in turkey, very often we find that plaintiffs put it on the western alienation of turkey either the eu, germans, french alienated turkey or the use with the war in iraq in turkey when we see versions that focus on role of erdogan as a person by erdogan is basically a more and more unstable and if only it wasn't erdogan person was running
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turkey but someone else on the akp there for a while people like davutoglu, the prime minister or others, senior people in the party, if only it was somebody else from the movement rather than erdogan we wouldn't have this problem. in other words, all of these explanations that you will assume that the problem is not that our fundamental analysis nature of the akp was wrong but something went wrong along the way. what i think our study does is to basically see that this is fundamentally wrong. that all these explanations underestimate and ignored the ideological baggage at the akp which is very consistent with what you're seeing being played out in turkey presently. and that is that turkish islamism, the movement from which the akp game, is much more radical than what is generally acceptable. it is true and it's an important
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point that the tradition in turkey which is part of this movement has refrained turkey funding violate the it's always have respect for the state and asked not to take up arms against the state. but what we see is the ideas that are propagated by this movement are profoundly radical. very quickly there are three -- there are three routes to this movement, and one of these is the order which especially from the only 19th century onward brought alien inspiration much more orthodox in the position of turkish islam into turkey come into the turkish mainstream from arable land, from kurdish land. we should look at the order as a traditional inward looking spiritual order. it's a very orthodox sharia-based that is also extremely political. so that's the first route if you will. the ideological and
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intellectually. the other is turkish thinkers, islamist thinkers from the 1920s and '30s, if you look at what they believe and who they are if they were highly inspired by the european ideologies of the 1930s, particularly the fascist ideologies of the 1930s come and work passionate opponents of democracy, opponents of the west and very strong at this and much. the third element of the muslim brotherhood movement, the tradition were very influential from 1960s onward in the turkish islamic movement. to give you an example of how this comes together, the grand old man of turkish islam who died several years ago published present in the book of memoirs which roughly translates to my account, if you will. my struggle. -- "mein kampf."
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it is a diatribe not get the the failed in english but i think it should be a failure we might think of making it available in english, which i think the most important part is that it showed that the anti-semitic conspiracy thinking is not a marginal issue at the fringes of the movement. it's at the core of the belief system of the islamic movement in turkey. ..
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really that the akp never deed leave islamism behind intellectually. the changes or rebranding as we call it took place both among islamic intellectuals as well as among the politicians that founded the akp didn't really occur when the akp was created. started with the creation of virtue party in 1998 which preceded akp after the 1997 coup. when the akp came in to get rid of the old guard which was a block in the process of they're political ambitions. and occurred after the virtue party was closed down by the courts in 2001. in the paper we discuss in great detail how this process of rebranding was very technical in
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nature and it is important to note that erbok-en after the coup of 1997 embraced eu and embraced issue of applying the to the european courts for redress of the closing of the party. magically in his book published in 2014, there is nothing about it. nothing about the e.u. nothing about the democracy. if that never happened to the hardcore islamist ideologies of 1960s and '70s. in principle i think what you are left with the conclusion is that the rebranding of the akp never went to the core issue. that is it never went to the core issue that the islamist movement in turkey and people who are very much today remain the decisionmakers in the akp have a world view remains based on essentially delusional view that is based on a jewish world conspiracy there.
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is linear link between the consolidation of the akp and return to hard-core islamist ideas and values that were part of the islamist movement in turkey in the 1960s and 1970s. now looking at june election, we found that tie yep erdogan, was never rally and posters and depete of akp in june was idea of no, presidential system and authoritarian system with one man. you don't find erdogan in posters. they was party and not vehicle for one sing -- single individual. people vote for the party, and exact but not for the person of erdogan. that won't change the fact that
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erdogan try to change the presidential system. whether or not he succeeds in having constitutional booking for a system that in practice sis already existing, he will have at least four more years to deepen his i am mack -- impact on turkey make it more irreversibly more middle eastern country and more unstable country than it was when he took power. >> thank you. svante. blaise? >> thank you. alfred whitehead said the tradition of western philosophy consists of footnotes to plato. one of the reasons i studied philosophy to read plato and be done with it. most i will say will relate to dr. cornell's excellent presentation. hard to ignore what is happening in for the last 2 1/2 years without coming to the copclusion
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that is departure from democracy, beginning with the park protests in last days of may 2013 that were met with brutal police response followed by the december 17th investigations into the corruption and the way that the prosecutors who brought those charges were sort of dealt with and police force responsible for the investigations were dismissed. it has become clear that then prime minister, now president erdogan sort of really called the shots in turkey but the purpose of this paper was to examine the sort of nature of authoritarianism in turkey, ask where does it come from, what is it its nature, how is it structured and how it is being implemented and why it matters. i think on the first point as is
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svante presented, all the results? turkey is something that miraculously happened in 2013 or earlier date. not the result of some sort of break erdogan had. or just his purely personnal ambitions and not sort of partywide objectives as svante laid out. back to the khmer rouge tradition which is if you look at varyvarious party es he led in the with authoritarian structure and really controlling them. therefore it is not really surprising that that is what we're seeing manifesting in really, is the party that inhair inhair -- inheriter of that tradition which is the bak party. the argue we put forward the
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democratic moment in 2003 and when akp is first elected which earns laud from turkish intellectuals and lead that's this is a democratic party that will solve the democratic deficit turkey has been face something really the entree in some ways to the thor tehranism tehranism -- authoritarianism we see that. that the 1997 coupe that forced erdogan from power, that its predecessor to a coup, postmodern coup, didn't quite actually have a coup, being fresh in people's minds and akp's mind sought a way to stay in power without being meddled with. the first step was clearing the underbrush, clearing the threats to their rule which was primarily the military, which is what we see sort of in 2006, 7, 8, 9, with the sledgehammer case
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and allegations of coup plotting and terrorism with the military journalists supporting them. then you see basically the akp completely swing the pendulum the other way, become a mirror image. first they were sort of outsiders trying to clear away the established institutions of the state that might oppose them. then suddenly they become the institutions of the state and trying to clear away the social and economic institutions that might oppose them. so what you really see in turkey is authoritarianism on two levels. one is the deinstitutionalization that svante mentioned. concentration of power in erdogan's hands and attempts to do away with any checks and balances, separation of powers, rule of law, that is meant to shield the use of power. so you see tinkering or talking first in the 2010 constitutional reverend up did and in the last two years with laws that govern
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the hasek which is body that controls how judges and prosecutors are appointed. suddenly you see stacking of the courts essentially allowing erdogan to dictate who the judges are, and therefore how decisions are made. you see rule of law and separation of powers eroding which is the media regulatory body which leads to some of the invasions of media freedom that ambassador edelmen mentioned. second level of authoritarianism you see, elimination of possible sources of opposition, closing in of open sphere of civil society both in terms of media freedom. as we saw dramatically in the lead-up to the election, imprisonment of journalists, targeting of journalists, some of this doing done with government men's means or extra
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legal means with mobs showing up by newspapers led by government party mps, not in any official capacity and ransacking those offices. mobs showing up and ransacking offices of opposition political parties as was mentioned. you see the economic sphere which svante mentioned where you see sort of crony capitalism emerge, state contracts, government contracts, are seen as means of enriching supporters of the government and party through kickbacks enriching itself and pushing out from the economy and from access to wealth access owning media companies and mounting opposition to the government anyone who doesn't agree with it. you see systemic authoritarianism on multiple levels not just within the government but within civil society, media and economy. and the question of why this
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matters has been hinted at as svante said. it is about polarization and civility. turkey has several cross-cultural cleavages. we talk about akp and opposition as socially conservative or pious versus secularists or but it is much more than that turks versus kurds and all these cleavages are in play right now. worse than that, what you've seen between june and the november election they have really hardened in a way that appears difficult to reverse at this point. going into the june election there is a lot of optimism, specifically around the possibility that the hdp, kurdish party, might cross the 10% threshold for the first time. this would be a significant step forward for turkish society and also for a way to moderate the akp's power.
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also sense of possibility, sense of change immeant and or at least possible to the democratic process. among a lot of members of the opposition that sense of hope really evaporated by the time the november election came around because it seems apparent that president erdogan were will be to take the country to the brink of war, destablize the country in order for them to be able to make the argument they could bring stability back and therefore were the right choice. and the other reason this matters i feel often in washington, erdogan's antics are seen as electoral strategies. turkey now has had four elections in the last two years. so often very easy to say, they're just shutting down youtube and twitter because they need to do this before the election but of at election, don't worry everything will come back. oh, he is just cracking down on the kurds because he is doing
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this to gain votes before the election. but after the election, don't worry everything will change. first of all we haven't seen that on multiple times we've heard that this would happen. it hasn't. but secondly there is a sort of circular logic here where we say that we shouldn't worry about erdogan's authoritarian tendencies, soon as he gets victory he wants in the elections he won't need to resort to them. why would he want to win an election. as svante said to create presidential authoritarian system he is not shy talking about. effectively trying to persuade ourselves the authoritarianism he displays now will go away once he has power to be authoritarian for real which seems a little circular. paying attention to the ideology and objectives driving erdogan and the party are important to understand where the country will be going in the future. thanks. no alan. >> thanks.
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i guess much of what there is to say about the election and outlook has already been said. so i will do my best to make it interesting. i would -- >> and said by you. >> yeah. look, you know, for me, i have to say, i thinker dough juan was -- erdogan was on somewhat after losing streak even though always coming first in the elections, i think akp did worse than expected in local elections in 2014, in the presidential election he got just under 52% against really two, essentially nobodies. i don't want to say he was a nobody, emerged as a significant, political heavyweight in many ways but he was, you know, essentially unknown at the time of the
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presidential election. akp lost its majority in june. and i guess i would have to say, to me, this election was, showed erdogan somewhat recovering the midas touch in politics that he had had previously. it took some guts to roll the dice. maybe he didn't have much choice because he was frightened of not having a majority but, nobody expected a success and he did succeed. i think also in, i am not sure if it was svante or blaise alluded to this, i guess showed a little more flexibility than i expected.
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if you, surveys showed after the last election, that his, both his presence, his very shrill campaigning for akp and, his emphasis on a presidential system which remains not very popular in turkey. remains, overwhelming majority of turks oppose it, those two elements actually hurt akp in june. so what did he do? he, and for somebody, we tend to think of him such an ego tivity he wouldn't be able to do this, he largely kept himself out of the campaign in november. and you didn't hear much about the presidential system. showed actually to me surprising tactical flexibility.
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a lot of negative things are said about polls in turkey. there was a great those familiar with turkish politics, showed leaders of three losing parties sitting around grumbling how terrible the polls were and they missed it entirely? how can the pollsters say there? they all ought to resign. allows to the fact turkish party leaders never resign. there is something positive to say about it, ipso poll primarily do market research. they have done only thing closest to exit polls in turkey,
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which are done the day after the elections. they are the june 8th poll had over 20% of mhp voters saying if they had known how the election would turn out they would have voted or akp. listen, i don't know how good the poll is. i'm not here to vouch for it or advertise for it but erdogan's polls must have been showing something similar. on day one after june 7th, the pro-government papers were all saying the solution is a new election, likely a new election. that is before all the politicians said anything. he obviously believes the kind of results that came out of that ipsos poll. that already create ad base of voters for akp, which, i built
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on to his victory in november. he knew there was already a significant chunk of voters who were unhappy with a hung parliament. and were going to vote for him for the sake of a majority. now, i do see, like i think many commentators have said, this was a vote for stability and the ipsos poll, by the way it is only in turkish at this point. for those who have rudimentary knowledge of turkish, it is very easy to read. even i could read it. had some very interesting things in it, but i, look, i think, although the vote was for stability, i think what the turks are going to reap is a great deal of instability. i will tick off a lot of things that have already been said.
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it's clear that erdogan sees this vote as an affirmation of his policies. so i think we can expect that we will continue to push the presidential system. there has already been indications from his advisors that they intend to push along those lines. he is 13 votes short in parliament of having enough votes to pass a constitutional amendment that could be brought up for a referendum. but given some of the past cooperation between akp and nationalist mhp, it would not be shocked to see him cull those extra votes from mhp. and even though, should he get to a referendum, right now roughly 70% of turks say they,
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and this is, again from this recent poll, after the november election, say they favor a parliamentary system, but once the campaign for a referendum were involved, i mean who knows. what would happen because akp has many levers and erdogan is very influential. i think we'll see the presidential system, we're going to see a continuation of the war on the pkk. at any rate the pkk has, what i think is a blunder for the kurdish cause, has said that its temporary cease-fire is over. i likely to see a crackdown on the universities at least the golenis ones. new regulations passed shortly before the election gives the higher education council the
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right to take over universities. media, just, it's the worst era i can really remember and my memory goes back a long way on turkey. and just some of the recent things. just to highlight, they have been said already. kozai, police storming the building and taking tv stations off the air and newspapers were taken over. and the next day they flipped 180 degrees editorially. >> or 360 degrees as the prime minister would say. >> right. or maybe 360 degrees. but i think one of the most disturbing things, maybe there is some of you in the audience who can provie some context for this, i don't remember anything like this. there have been nearly 300 cases of journalists and others who have been indicted, arrested,
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fined for insulting the president. there were no such cases under goul the law is on the books. i don't ever it being invoked quite so often. i do remember senior officials in turkey filing liable suits including the president ozul many years ago. it is almost foolproof way of getting people to shut up. the crackdown on gulenis will continue. i want to emphasize one point with this election. as many of you in the audience know, december 17th, 2013, a corruption case was opened of many akp associated people t was followed by a series of leaks of
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recordings which seemed to implicate erdogan himself. much of subsequent turkish political history, i think we can say until november 1st, probably has been about the president trying to avoid those charges coming to him. some people would argue that is actually why he insisted on becoming president because it is much harder to get to a president. takes basically 3/4 vote for impeachment. otherwise he is basically beyond the law. some argued that is why he need ad majority government. even a coalition government, it might have been difficult for any non-akp party, not to vote in favor of pursuing these corruption charges. now he is insulated from those charges. and i think that story is pretty much over.
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so i think there will be some very tough times ahead. not to mention that the economy has been struggling. i will just, couple of things about the united states. is there some silver lining, well, you know, i'm trying to be objective, perhaps, from the u.s. point of view, the fact that we've been using incirlik with an agreement with was, an interim government but, was an akp-dominated government since late july. i guess this likely assures we'll be able to continue to use incirlik and three other bases in turkey in the fight against isis. perhaps if chp had been part of the government i don't think there would be interruption but chp, elements of chp has its own
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cut about syria and united states. maybe there would have been some complications. now there will not. when we fight a war, winning that war tends to dominate all aspects of our policy and that's understandable. i think that is going to be the dominant element in our policy, in our turkey policy in the days ahead but i would echo what ambassador edelman said, it is extremely important that we continue to focus on freedom deficits and particularly on the repression of freedom of expression. in turkey. i think to continue because the state department, i would have to say despite our strategic needs in turkey, has made some important statements. we're going to have to keep that out front. i think the first test of how we're going to balance that, are
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important test will come this weekend. president obama will be in turkey for the g20 sim mitt in italia. at the previous g20 summit he seemed to try to evade prime minister erdogan with whom he once had a close relationship but since 2013 has not. it is very difficult to evade your host. it will be very interesting to see how the president balances appreciation for the fact that we're able to use turk irk bases in the -- turkish bases in the fight against isil with a deep concern about the lack of freedom and declining freedom in turkey. i'll leave it at that. >> thank you. john? >> okay. thank you. i'll try and be quick because i know we would like time for questions. >> which i wasn't.
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sorry. >> ambassador edelman will be here for a few minutes and people can is him some questions i would just underscore what alan said, as much as i don't like it, i think election really did highlight erdogan's total mastery over turkish politics. whatever people thought about june 7th, that was going to be the dagger to the heart that began to put an end to the erdogan's absolute reign over turkish politics, you know, in the aftermath of what happened on november 1st, i think we have to say at most a stumble. and that he, you know, remains a giant. his ability to manipulate, to intimidate, to threaten, persuade, to inspire, to demagogue the turkish public to
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serve his own political ends is without parallel in the turkish system. that was certainly the case. it was an amazing five-month period to have gone from the stinging rebuke on june 7th, to everybody has said to this stunning victory on november 1st. that nobody, none of the experts and certainly not the pollsters predicted this resounding, overwhelming victory by the akp again and its return to majority, majority rule and, all the more of an earthquake because it was so unexpected and unpredicted, except perhaps for president erdogan himself. as alan said, he was the one who from the start said, nope, we're going to scuttle these coalition talks. we're going to go to new
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elections. it was he who took advantage of the assassination of those two policemen in july, seized on the provocation, to basically end the peace process, declare it dead and we watched more or less full-scale conflict in turkey southeast against the pkk and as my colleagues have said, it was he who decided that he was going to double down on crushing all forms of dissent inside of turkey, particularly in the media. and just, i mean really astounding cases of repression. of the media, as well of a political opponent, particularly within the kurdish-dominated hdp. so this was a systemic strategy, as blaise referred to by erdogan
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of manufactured chaos, of manufactured instability, violence and intimidation, to essentially scare the turkish people revisiting the results of june 7th. and returning the akp to monopoly power because if they didn't, it was as much a threat and a promise that things could get much, much worse and faced with a situation which stability was the question, inside of turkey, i think, their only choice was to return the akp to power. at least they felt, the majority of the voters felt that was their only option was a strong akp government. it was a, a miraculous result, when you think about what he did. the strategy was clearly, he had to whip up some level of national hysteria and win back nationalist voters that got in
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the mhp to back the akp. at same time they needed to repress the hdp vote that kurdish vote that taken some voters away from him. he succeeded spectacularly on that account. hdp lost 40 seats. and hdp lost more than a million voters overwhelmingly kurdish voters. think about what he did. won at the same time, he won over millions of anti-kurdish, right-wring nationalists and, won over close to a million conservative kurdish votes that is quite an extraordinary feat to be able to thread that needle. but he did it. and again i think it underscores his mastery of turkish politics.
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what does it meet on here out? i agree with my colleagues, it is bad news. that erdogan will see this as vindication, as a mandate to continue doing what he is doing. that this policy worked. whatever narrow opportunity existed on june the 7th, to begin dialing back the trajectory towards authoritarianism in turkey, erdogan made sure over these last five months he would slam it shut. my guess over the next four years, until voters go to the polls again he will make sure it is nailed, nailed shot and democracy and pluralism and human rights and freedom of the press my guess are all going to suffer tremendously. i think he will push this notion of an imperial presidency, whether the, whether the turkish people want it or not. i think el figure out a way to get it. if it means dominating not just
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70% of the media in turkey as it does now, if it takes dominating 90% of it or 100% of it, that's what i think he will do. if he needs 13 other parliamentarians outside of akp to go to constitutional referendum on executive presidency, i think with the political wind at his back, with all of the powers of the state in his command, including all the coercive powers but all incentives thdt the state can potentially he provide to these parliamentarians, i think 13 seats is not a very high hurdle or big obstacle for him to work on over the course of the next year in order to get that referendum. the peace process with the kurds, again, i'm not sure but the fact is that pushing the
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peace process i think he will look back and say, that cost me votes, that cost me nationalist votes. think think election underscored for him how important that right-wing nationalist constituency is to his ability to consolidate power. i think that is the lesson he will take, reaching out to the kurds, looking like i was pursuing a settlement that hurt me. in fact last five months, increased tensions, increased conflict, increased violence with the kurds, that got me november 1st. that is the path to go. maybe not full-scale war. cost of that politically, economically, in terms of the how investors look at turkey, that could be a place he doesn't want to go but thought of low-level tensions, continued simmering conflict, my guess is that's what we're likely to see, a continuation of. in syria, we will see, but i think this attitude on the
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kurdish question, this increased sense of playing, being able to play the nationalist card, seeing kurdish aspirations as a threat, even a mortal threat to turkey's territorial integrity i think that could spill over on to the syrian front and particularly the kurdish question inside of, inside of syria. i think the fact that increasingly it looks like u.s. strategy is growingly dependent on the syrian-kurdish movement, ypg, militia there, which is closely aligned within the pkk inside of turkey, the u.s. is holding on to the ypg as an integral part of its ability to fight this war against isis on the ground including and being able to put pressure on its capital in raqqa, which must be one of the main lines much our operations there as secretary
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carter had recently said in testimony. i think that clearly, and the turks have said, that is a major, major problem for them, even perhaps a red line. the notion of a budding u.s.-ypg military alliance on their border is something they said that they can not tolerate. up to now all we've seen is isolated incidents of some artillery, some airstrikes by turkey on ypg positions across the border. but i think that's something to watch. no doubt, hopefully this weekend and earlier this week when the president does talk to erdogan my guess trying to reach some kind of better understanding about where we're headed on syria is going to be very important including on what we're going to do or not do with the ypg. and if not the ypg, as kind of a tip of the spear fighting isis then what's turkey's answer?
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who else is going to do it? what's turkey going to do? certainly not the answer turkey has had so far which is essentially the empower non-isis radical jihadists across the bored e that is no answer for the u.s. government i don't think. that is not a serious alternative to what we're trying to do on the ground against isis and now there is the question what skin is turkey willing to be put in the game? there is subtle hints, maybe not so subtle hints they will get serious if they have a coalition they can work with. they would even put boots on the ground? are they prepared to go in and put boots on the ground and police a safe zone inside of syria? we'll see. that's a question worth pursuing but i don't think it will be an easy discussion. and there are real potential landmines between us and the turks now over syria. i'm not at sure that election makes this any easier to
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resolve. in some ways it may make them tougher where erdogan and turkish military is on the question right now of the kurds. and believe me, there are a lot of, there is no doubt a lot of turks, pkk people, fighting inside of syria with the ypg. and the turks have said, if there are u.s. weapons that go to the ypg that end up inside of turkey being used against turkish security forces that will be a diplomatic crisis between the united states and turkey. if there are a lot of things moving now that could point us in that kind of direction. and i think that's something we'll very much want to head off. i finally say that, you know, stepping back, the larger picture here for me, i don't know how narrow the window was, but i think there was a window opened after june 7th, in which turkey may, had a chance
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to actually begin to put the brakes on this juggernaut of erdogan hurdling more authoritarian future for turkey. i think we probably will look back in retrospect see this election on november 1st as a real hicge point for the country where it did face faceed a chance to go into two different directions and there may have been a off-ramp of erdogan's superhighway, with this nasty islamist twist to it. think they thought about it. they thought about it a second time. may have changed their mind and didn't take that exit. and now it is in the rear view mirror and they may have ended up in the express lane to some form of turkish putinnism. getting back to that exit from
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this very bad trajectory i think will be very, very difficult and erdogan will make it very difficult if not impossible to have that kind of exit ramp in 2019. i think that will be singular strategic purpose of his, to make sure he doesn't have to go through the kind of experience he went through june the 7th, ever, ever again. so, on that cheery note let me turn it back. >> thank you. [inaudible] no thanks to all for very substantive discussion. i think i will refrain from my commentary. i like to use time we have left for questions from the audience. start here with dan. >> daniel, a professor here at sais. i would like to hear more about
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counter veiling forces. as you mentioned the courts, media have been mentioned. heard very little about the military as potential countervailing force, the business community, the opposition political parties. i mean, the democracy just doesn't happen because people are nice to each other. there is some sort of force that works against the autocracy. >> if you could please keep answers as well short, so we could have more questions coming. who wants to start? alan? >> start? >> go. >> the mic is yours. >> okay. i think there are countervailing forces but i don't think they're powerful enough. you mentioned military. everyone in turkey, i wonder why always speculates about what the military is thinking. i think it's clear erdogan wants
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the military on his side. and the military is an opaque institution. but i think as much as we can see into it, they strongly support the idea of going after the pkk. they see the pkk a greater threat than is isis. and they see ypg and pkk more or less the same. and, i think they feel this way enough, maybe it is not even completely clear who is driving the policy more but i think erdogan and the military are probably more or less in lockstep on this. i think there are other issues where they can put the brakes on and they have put the brakes on but i don't think it is about domestic politics where they're involved. there was a rumor about two
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months ago that turkey was about to send land forces into syria. this is strongly opposed by the turkish public. every poll has shown that. according to all reports and that's all we have to go by the military said we're not going to do it. i think the military never lost total power in turkey. an i'm not sure, maybe somewhat minority on this obviously with all the officers that were arrested, they were hurt badly. they certainly lost their ability to affect domestic politics. but, they have in certain ways retained their autonomy and i think when it comes to the use of them, they are decisive. they're not going to, you know, in our system the military might say, mr. president, this is a difficult operation you're asking. i'm not sure we can do it but if
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the president says do it, our guys will salute. i don't think in turkey the military has ever been like that. even at its lowest moment. by the way the military, has resisted in other ways too. the military educational system is still intact. they control their own educational system. there was an effort, it was even publicly announced by the government at one point they wanted graduates of the mom hat ib schools, these sort of state-sponsored parochial schools that svante mentioned to be accepted as military academies. there was a big fight that they would be eligible for regular universities, they won that. military said no, they won that bottle. so it is not 100% to nothing, but when it comes to domestic
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politics, i don't really see -- yeah, business community, the big business community maybe doesn't like erdogan so much but there's a, a lot of people, so-called anatolian tigers who are a significant factor, very much support i've of him so. >> did you have some comments. >> sure, i think, i would say what countervailing forces there are, aren't looking to democratic means to be countervailing forces. if they even want to be, alan discussed the military. it's not clear they really want to be involved but if they would it wouldn't be democratically. the big businesses that alan mentioned, a lot of them, a lot of the elite in turkey, decide to leave turkey rather than live under erdogan system where they will be oppressed or their liberties will be for saken. among the kurds, one of the stories that hasn't been
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discussed is radicalization happening within kurdish youth. some of these towns and other places where there are lots of fighting between security forces and kurdish youths, they were not pkk fighters. they were not members of the pkk that were trained in the kon dust. l mountains. their local youth were radicalized what was going on and taking up arms to defend their cities. again, that is not very democratic process. one place we might be able to say there is countervailing force emerging is the person, alan mentioned, the leader, coleader of the hdp. who has emerged only other charismatic persona on turkey's political scene who might be able to rival erdogan but dare i say he is very much limited by the politics of his party, even though it aspires to be a national party and he faces two dangers. on one hand he is danger, perceived as a danger to erdogan
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and perceived as to erdogan and pkk. some people want him dead, that so many people i wouldn't know who to suspect. exactly. >> institute of turkey from georgetown university. i would like to commend this panel and the position of the pbc, consistent accurate assessment for what is happening in turkey. thank you for maintaining that position. it's a true resource in this town. one rumor following g20, suggested they might actually seize the papers in the immediate aftermath. 70, to 80% friendly media to erdogan is to watch out for. i guess my question directed at john hannah, i guess, i wish
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ambassador edelman is still here. from the perspective of the decisionmakers in the room who will be advising the president, it is nice talking about erdogan has the brakes off and this is dangerous regime headed and hurdling or whatever, is anybody going to advise the president we shouldn't do business with these guys or who are we doing business with? erdogan has the united states and europe over a barrel over a lot of things. he managed to pull a lot of levers in domestic politics and managed the unthinkable. is it the case that he is also going to do this at international level? is anybody really going to say to him, this is not acceptable? >> i think it's a good question. by the way you're sitting next to one of our great diplomats on turkey, ambassador holmes who knows a lot. forgotten a lot more about turkey than i know. i would say no, my guess is not. i think there is a, sort of
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sobering reality that even hit the obama administration what about they are dealing with in turkey which actually took a very long time for people in this town i think to realize. i wish they had had this study or we had the study back in 2002 to understand what we were dealing with. there was awful lot of wishful thinking about where erdogan and akp were likely to take turkey and i think we're rueing that now, that we hadn't been able to act earlier and develop the kinds of strategies to do what we could to put some backstops in support of turkish democracy and freedom of the press and the rule of law and all the things that we care about. and i think the end of the day in our long term vital for having a serious stable partner in a nato country, but i think alan is right at the end of the day, especially now in the
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context that we're dealing with in the middle east today, where there seems to be something of a regional meltdown underway which this president has in fact launch ad war against this terrorist organization which we're getting some modicum of support now from this turkish government and he think he has manipulated this quite successfully. this decision to grant us access to the bases in incirlik was very much tied to his, and at the service of his own domestic agenda, with an eye toward what he wanted to do on november 1st and what he wanted to do vis-a-vis the pkk and devise some level of u.s. acquiescence and silence in that. in the same way i have almost no doubt that what happened, all of a sudden after several years of this conflict, this rush of
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people out of turkey into europe, creating this kind of crisis on europe's doorstep, was, as they used to say no accident, comrade. i do believe there was probably some level of manipulation there that erdogan does have his hands on the tap, so to speak with regard to this refugee crisis and very much understands and is using this as leverage now in his dealings with both europe and the united states and the west. that if they want want any help solving this crisis, not to mention the broader crisis in syria, the difficult partner as turkey has been, the hopes of a settlement without turkey involved are slim to none and this crisis gets much worse, if that requires you to he lower your voice and look away for the moment, regarding basically the
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dismantlement turkish democracy and law so be it they will be out of office 15 months and somebody else's problem. we need to deal with them on difficult regional issues and this war that we're leading and we can manage the problematic nature of internal turkish politics. unfortunately, i think it is unfortunate because i think it will come back to bite us at some point. >> yes. turkey strategic importance has always covered a multitude of sins and i don't think -- that's no different now. we need turkey for the war against isis, as long as we feel that's probably not going to change. but i did just want to qualify a little bit the idea, the comments that have been made at the administration isn't saying anything. i think they have actually, i
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have been surprised to be honest with some of the strong statements, if you go back and look, at state department noon press briefings, they have been very tough on turkey on fred dom of expression. and, also, following the election. we did not, we, the u.s. government did not congratulate akp. very unusual, in a landslide like this. they said we're waiting for official vote which always comes out in turkey 10 days, eight days, 10 day as of the election. said, we won't speculate on results. we're only ones in the world who wouldn't speculate on what the results were. that was a clear message, that we were very unhappy about the human rights situation. the fact that the campaign had taken place under, situation of
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great restrictions on the opposition. so, you know, just to be fair, to the u.s. government on this. >> bill? >> thank you. this has been an excellent panel. i'm bill diehl, retired foreign service officer. i wanted to ask ambassador edelman a question but he is gone. i will pitch this to the whole panel here, shed some light on it. you mentioned that turkey is a society with many cleavages in it. and if you set aside the religion and recall that the akp came to power on, kind of a promise of economic betterment and good governance, the economy has been slowing, what is the long-term or, near term implications of this for erdogan and the aqp? >> svante, do you want to take it? >> do we have a columnist here
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on the panel? i think this, for a long time imf and other institutions classified turkey at most at risk emerging economy along with brazil. you've seen loafer a long period of time tensions within the turkish government where erdogan was more interested in populist moves, didn't like independence of the central bank, for example. wanted to lower interest rates, stuff like that, and there was a resistance from the professionals, people in the government, like ali ba b.j. on who is back in some capacity. we'll see what happens. seems to me, more erdogan capitalizes on this position of power that is not good news for the management of the economy. and moreover, right now, with consolidation of power i think the crony capitalist type of economy that erdogan is building, from 2010 to today
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really gone off the rails compared to what it used to be. and i don't see that changing. it is like, if anything, it is likely to get worse. which means that the conditions for a real economic downturn in turkey are certainly there. there needs to be a trigger of some form, internal or external trigger. another, another election lost by the aq could have been that kind of trigger and they spread that kind ever propaganda which if you will helped them with electoral victory. the question what would happen if there was a economic downturn? many people in turkey say only way to get rid of erdogan is by economic crisis. i don't think this that would work that way. i think he would push back in very authoritarian way against any form of dissent. >> question there. >> hi, everybody. i'm a senior research fellow for
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a non-profit called stability institute. and i, i know, i guess a couple of you had touched upon this, but i do want to go back to look from the eyes of the voters in turkey. try to understand why they gave the ak party and erdogan a majority, resounding majority? i know part of it was stability, but was it they remember good times between 2003 and 2007 when things were going well, turkish economy was growing. what is common people, an tollian, tigers i would say, why would they vote for the akp party and propel it to majority? >> i could start. i think there is an assumption
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that democracy matters to a lot of voters. it may at some point but i don't think it necessarily the main concern. acould league of our spoke a few months ago, after the terrible mine tragedy in turkey he noticed that the akp swept the local election. went there, knocked on 100 doors, asked people who did you vote for and why in they all said we voted for akp this was earlier election and nevertheless. why did you. look i have mortgage on my house. i have mortgage on my car and mortgage on my washing machine and itch credit card debt. goes back to bill's question as well, indebtedness level are u.s., pre-2008 crisis, those kind of levels we're talking about. which means people are really very fearful of this type of instability. and then if you look at sociological studies like in a
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recent interview, reknowned turkish social scientist talked about, what's the composition of the electorate? well, middle class is maybe 20%. then you have what he called the lower middle classes which are at least 40% of the vote. so these people, you know, you can do the math. what is their priority? and pocketbook issues will understandably have a much higher level of priority than issues of, you know, abstract issues of even the presidential system versus freedom of courts and so on. i think that's where you have to look for the reason. . .
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europe under angela merkel made the bargain they're going to look the other way on turkey's sort of democratic violations, if you will come in exchange for turkey doing more to keep the refugees in turkey. turkey has done so at tremendous cost, 8 billion over the last four years. and also with some social cost, you have water mostly sunni syrians coming into the communities in southern turkey.
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so there's a cost to there. but i think it's one of the europeans are willing to bear and are going to try to get turkey to keep bearing. >> i think that brings us to the end of this very interesting discussion. i think what happens in turkey is very important for u.s. interest. it's important for the neighborhood of turkey as well. turkey was kind of, economic growth engine for some the neighboring countries for years, and what happens in turkey impacts lots of neighboring countries as well, particularly our region, caucasus of central asia. hopefully we'll have a chance to bring all back to discuss what happened in turkey next couple of years. and with that i would like to thank the audience for being here this evening, participating come asking questions. we will see you all, at least some of you, for our next forum november 18. thank you.
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[applause] [inaudible conversations] >> motivating youth civic engagement and clinical action is a subject of the discussion today at the center for american progress. you can see it live starting at 10 a.m. eastern on c-span2. today the federalist society on civil rights, criminal justice, and please relations with the community. that's life at 12:15 p.m. eastern on c-span2. c-span drug to the white house coverage continues today live from orlando at the republican
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party of florida is sunshine summit. the two-day event brings together presidential candidates along with florida's state and federal elected officials. this morning at 10:30 a.m. eastern the line up includes florida senator marco rubio, texas senator ted cruz, south carolina senator lindsey graham, former arkansas governor mike huckabee, former florida governor jeb bush, donald trump and ben carson. and live on saturday morning at 10 eastern, more from the republican sunshine summit with former pennsylvania senator rick santorum, louisiana governor bobby jindal, kentucky senator rand paul, new jersey governor chris christie, all our governor john kasich, and carly fiorina your stay with c-span for campaign 2016, taking you on the road to the white house on tv, on the radio, and c-span.org.
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>> will and baker says, well, i want to be a congressman. i think you're just using this as a stepping stone to the senate. george h. w. bush says no, no. i'm not using this as a stepping stone. i want to be president. this is 1965. he is 41, he has yet to win a race except to be the harris county chairman. but he had a sense of destiny. >> saturday night at 10 p.m. on c-span2's booktv, conversation between coach a prize-winning box for transport and former president george w. bush about the life of the president of father george herbert walker bush. also on saturday it's the louisiana book festival in baton rouge with nonfiction author presentations.
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>> i really was convinced that no one could pick up on the fact that i was sweaty, i was perspiring, you know, furtive and moving around in an agitated way. i mean, i totally thought no one you speak is interviewed by jim mcdermott from washington state. booktv, television for serious readers. >> next a discussion about the history, motivations and strategies of isis. this hour-long program is hosted by the international institute for strategic studies. >> all right. welcome to iiss or an in depth conversation on isis.
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we are here primarily to avoid any confusion about isis and iiss. i've actually been asked about that from time to time. we have two notable guests to mark the occasion. one, joby warrick, just published a fascinating book on the rise of isis. he's a journalist from the "washington post" who joined the national staff in 1996. he has covered national security intelligence in the middle east and rewrites about the environment. where he won the pulitzer prize years ago. his previous best selling book, the triple agent, which will ask them about shortly i think helped inspire this book. that indicates how closely i read it because it's not in, i
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think it's in the introduction or acknowledgments. second we have nelly lahoud who is an associate professor at the department of social sciences at west point, a senior associate at the combating terrorism center at west point. and more importantly, she will be joining us as a senior research fellow at iiss next month i believe. and i'm told to warn you her views in no way reflect anything about the military or the army. so we're going to have a discussion here for about 20 minutes, and then i will turn it over to the audience for q&a. and this discussion will be on the record and recorded.
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so first i'll ask joby, your book fascinatingly focus on a number of individuals, especially the story of abu assad was a card and his -- zipcar get his release from prison, history in northern iraq and ultimately his demise in iraq. but it also tells us the story of a number of key figures who tried to find him and the story of how he led the insurgency in iraq. i'm wondering if you did this, but this approach for purely narrative reasons as a
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journalist or if you feel that the rise of isis is with a story about individuals and their own contingencies? in other words, the isis have been prevented if zarqawi was still in a jordanian prison? or if the u.s. held onto him when he was initially arrested? >> aqi thanks again to iiss for hosting this event and for being such a great resource to meet and to journalist as well as policymakers and members of public over the years. and thank nelly and ben. add to your congratulations for this workstation for having the foresight to clump the eyes and the ss together. david albright comes to mind, is also isis and now has a particular problem of having to explain their not the other isis.
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they call himself a good isis now but good luck trying to find if you google isis these days. you will not get anywhere close to screw. good going on the. csh is the starting point for me i am as a journalist and a storyteller. i became faster with zarqawi when you still active in iraq and more after he went away because it became clear to me that his importance as a terrorist leader was under recognize. what he was able to quit was quite unique and humans into space in iraq where al-qaeda was operating. he built an organization as an outsider that became a huge challenge, problem force in trying to pacify the country. he did it deliberately even though in many ways is probably the most and least suited or least qualified person to lead a terrorist movement. here's a guy who never finished high school. he had been arrested for petty crimes as a kid, went off to fight jihad, didn't you
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particularly well, mrs. chance to fight the russians because he got there too late within through a series of circumstances he innovates unique ideas, ways to wage jihad that al-qaeda rejected as being too brutal, too harsh i get such a powerful following, an interesting core group that he formed around himself that he became this really powerful and very strategic force in iraq. there was an important story i think it needs to be told and broken down and understood and become so much more important in the isis context because i argue in the book that without zarqawi there is the isis because he was the innovator of most of the things we see with isis, everything from this focus on building the caliphate. this is not an al-qaeda idea, not completely unoriginal idea but something he decided in iraq had to be done in a short-term proposition. building the caliphate as a field of dreams come declared, it will happen. his successors at the more
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overtly than he did but he was like but that sos 2005-2006. he was the innovator of this idea of through sheer brutality achieving your objectives. he didn't want to be liked by other muslims like bin laden and al-qaeda wanted to be. you want to be feared and respected anyone could make things happen. he innovate the idea rating young men in orange jump shoots before came and cutting their heads off in 2004 with an american hostage nick berg. it's in a four-story and what we need to understand if we want to understand i suspect the other thing that's important to me is the fact i argued start how we would not have existed without a series of really incredible missteps including our own government as we go to the detail about that, talk about as the morning goes on. i just want to try to help, not just people in our world being
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saturate what does that help understand all these points that most of us are fully with about all came together in an extraordinary way with some exploded outside assistance degrade first of all zarqawi, this monster that was formed in 2004 essentially and then the movement that called him. >> nelly, usually social sciences don't like to focus on individuals. in your mind what were the main circumstances that led to the rise of isis? i mean, ideological reaction to the u.s. invasion, opponents to the authoritarian regimes? >> first, thank you for inviting me to the policy of this event and to be needing joby am also looking forward to be joining
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soon. if i may say something about joby spoke, and from his book at the beginning, -- junkies book. one of the things is this bombing was carried out initially by our zarqawi's group, to try to target adult cinema. the whidbey bomber was too engrossed in the film that is watching that he forgot about the mission he was supposed to carry out any damaged nobody but his actual, he lost his legs in the process. so the book did something similar, some assorted because i started reading it while i was on the train. to work. on that day there was a mechanical difficulties on the train, and apparently we needed to change trains and everybody left the train at 70.
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i was too engrossed in the book that i could hit any of the announcements into one of the train conductors just stood over me and said, you really need to leave the train. automatic. >> -- [inaudible] spent by all means. for myself enjoying many of these stories and aspects that i have not read elsewhere. but i do want to commend joby on taking us back to the early period of i.s. or the protocols of the islamic state. because since june 2014 was proclaimed to be the caliphate we've had so many books that flood the markets and so many of them seemed to begin with outback daddy. plus analogies -- al-baghdadi. analogies to matter. but we found through zarqawi is
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a different brand of jihadism. i think for a very long time we have been accustomed to the jihadism that was dominated by al-qaeda's leadership, by the personalities of bin laden, perhaps by the personalities of show we say bourgeois jihadis. those people who actually chose it as a result of idealism, you know, they were the dangers of dreamers. but we saw a kind of jihadism that was really about ideals about sacrifice, they need to die for a cause and so on. and i think in zarqawi were saying a particular issue, we are seeing a different kind of -- sword on the bourgeois but they decided they wanted to be
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jihadis and we see some of those differences between al-qaeda's brand at least when the narrative side and between what we are seeing as the heirs of zarqawi today. so i think in that respect the book really fills an important gap. but i do want to say also that there were aspects of the book that i think it doesn't, we still have gaps in understanding the foundation of i.s. and i think there was a series gap in the book from 2006 to around 2011. so there's no bias here. i'm studying the statement and the leadership of what was called isi, the islamic state of
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iraq between 2006-2010, and i think al-baghdadi is probably the neglected one. i do think that there is something that has been underestimated about this period. particularly because he was when the president declared the state, the islamic state of iraq was under him. he was the one who proclaimed it. there's also another phase i would like to know also that more about in order for us to have a better appreciation of i.s. come which is the time i think when you nicely described him in your book about when zarqawi demoted himself. this is when he became part of the blogging. this is a very important time because we saw many groups and iraq -- mujahideen. who actually joined under the
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umbrella, and zarqawi's group was one of many. we something seriously divides. we so many of these groups even are some of these groups appealing to bin laden called on him what kind of disaster did you bring? why don't you associate yourself and jihad from these groups, from zarqawi? so this was a very important event. if there was one report i don't know whether it, i don't know about its authenticity of the report suggests that it was al-baghdadi it was actually the leader of the mujahideen. we are missing perhaps a story about al-baghdadi. when i read his statements and so on, he is, he provides almost if you like what he calls the beheading. so zarqawi did it, and when the
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and others checked on them they seem to have stopped this. we may say there was no state and, ostateand, of course, it wd so on, but the hierarchy and infrastructure of the state at least on paper and, of course, all these various suicide operations and various other operations that were mounted in iraq were also a time during this era. i wonder why these several years, i think counted about two and half pages in the book. >> it has that's your book. >> maybe. >> joby, i'd like to ask you about your time in jordan, a factor as i said before, probably what helped inspire this book. clear that you would remote places outside of the area --
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oman, including prison facilities. i wonder if you could talk a little bit about the people you met from the g.i. d., the jordanian intelligence directorate, the role in jordan's security establishment and how that contributed possibly or negatively to the rise -- possibly ornately to the rise of the ice is generally spent i think jordan and gid are essential characters in the story. zarqawi was a jordanian, and at the same time as i understand him, his real influence was jihadi was outside the country, was not part of the jordanian, didn't come out of the muslim
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brotherhood. he was influenced more by his experiences in afghanistan and then coming back to jordan years later and joint are starting to help start a cell that was quite radical and all ended up in prison for because of the lovely attended bombings that they never could quite pull off. he didn't have a single successful attack ever. the ones that failed most of those is the one that was just described by nelly. what comes out of this story is really jordan's role, interest into the containment of these groups. the recognized that had a serious problem. they saw as early as early '90s with these afghan fighters coming back to the country looking for things to do, being radicalized, and getting into trouble. so a pretty sophisticated containment operation began really at that time. it was pretty new. they had to do with various factions of palestinians before but this is sort of a homegrown
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terrorist problem that they were having. and quite brutal at times. there was a combination of two things the g.i. did do well. that extreme a good penetration which i think asia to do in a small country but have always been oppressed by the fact that they gid is pretty good grasp of everything that's going on or seems in the country and they control the potential troublemakers often through brutal means, particularly years ago in the '90s. the old gid headquarters has a horrible reputation in the local nickname used to be a fingernail factory. they have become a little bit more, it's a little less rough around the edges i think the race late but they do what they needed to including key point people in prison for quite a long period of time until there is a threat. the ideological partner to zarqawi in his prison days was a guy who is sort of a kuwaiti born palestinian who had sort of
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philosophy that started this movement in prison. and after he was released, zarqawi and all the cellmates were essentially released in general amnesty in 1999 after the death of king hussein but the drinking and felt him as a threat and they kept him in prison for the rest, you know, until after just a few months ago. they let him out whenever he was putting up messages, criticizing zarqawi for example, but they've been very effective at controlling some of these groups. they have a bigger problem than because it's not just jordanian population but huge number of outsiders. not just in refugee camps but all the major cities and small ones as well and that's coming also the problem of having isis really on two sides of the board in iraq and syria. their problems identified in the last couple of years.
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they are continuing complaint to me when i speak to them about how, not just a resource problem but just, they feel disadvantaged and shortchanged on every front. they're fighting for chums that is unique in the region and they are essential to keeping isis from progressing further added to fill than the support they need to. they come out as being both cassandra like in the book but also sort of a tragic element to what's happening in the country and how it has been acted upon by outside forces it the way disastrous economically. >> from your time in jordan do you pick up any blowback among the population about the treatment of prisoners? does it affect radicalization community? >> one mistake that was made, and i think the jordanians would acknowledge this, back in the '90s they kept the jihadists together and this became sort of
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a tactical decision because they had an overcrowded prison population and these hard-core guys were infecting the regulars, the ordinary criminals. they chose with them all together chose with them altogether after the ascension opens up with a scene of these 50 radicals all together in this jail that had been abandoned years before by the opened it to put these guys in the. it became kind of a jihadi university. there's all kinds of stories of torture and beatings and things like that, which obviously hard to get a true version of what happened in many cases but this essentially help drive these guys together and help create a more radical collection than existed before the. that becomes a problem that comes back to haunt the jordanians manyfold over years later. now as part of the gid effort, they're very good at not just penetration but good human
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intelligence come and talk to ordinary officers, i guess the equivalent of almost more fbi and cia, dealing with families of young men who were going into the jihadists camp and working with parents, siblings, and making many, many, and real-time street-level care and attention being paid to potential problems that were coming up i think that's what makes them remarkably, to look at the region, stable compared to many of their neighbors. >> nelly, can you, going back to isis today, can you help us situate them in the spectrum of islamist groups, and talk a little bit more about the difference with al-qaeda and al-nusra and how that evolved speak with sure. joby noted the one time mentor
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of apple zarqawi. -- abu zarqawi. normally i actually prefer to call them jihadi to the islamists are those that i consider to be, to the groups who use islam as part of their political agenda but they're willing to contest the shot conduct elections. they're part of the political process where as he hunted by those who actually reject the legitimacy of the political process altogether. so on the jihadi spectrum, i think we encounter the group that came to form isis or i.s. through the lens of the writings of the person who, or the ideologue, whose writings provided the foundation of that brand of sectarianism within jihadism.
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the jihadism of bin laden and al-qaeda before i says is actually a jihadism of pragmatism of sorts. one of his early books that became quite popular amongst his followers is the religion of abraham. and in it he really provides the seeds for that kind of the sectarianism that zarqawi would actually adopt and run with. now, he has since been said that zarqawi and others actually abuses writing but they didn't abuse them. you just go back and read his writings and you know that he's the one, but they didn't actually use them. not to get into too much technicalities about this, but the main difference, this is a difference that was very clear
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to bin laden and zarqawi went in that zarqawi back in 1999. they did not have anything to do with them because of differences to do with the concept or the notions. i do what you get too technical but these are the kind of, the social contract if you like of the jihadis or in this case the global contract. it's that notion with whom the want to associate in terms of believers. were asked al-qaeda and bin laden, -- whereas al-qaeda and bin laden they want to emphasize the vouchers of bringing people together. zarqawi was concerned about the people you need to disassociate, precisely because they did not share your beliefs and they didn't really, they reject the
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shiites in the way the odds rejected them and so on. and for those that actually emphasized that aspect, the disassociation on the basis of beliefs, they were disposed to resorting to something called -- it's when a muslim declares how muslims to be nonbelievers. mainstream muslims including bin laden and he wouldn't be dashed that even people like bin laden and zarqawi were very, very careful about that fear and they would not utilize it. mainstream muslims will tell you only god decides on what is inside the believers convention. because ultimately you can only decide to use against those of the that contention and only god knows it. whereas zarqawi and others thought it was a wanted to cleanse, if you like, and purify
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the faith from those beliefs that they disapproved of and they were not as puritanical. so this is where we see the roots of that say kerry and ideology emerging out of the writings, and zarqawi becomes the on the road advances it. we see others of his disciples. in one of the people who fight alongside zarqawi and he died in iraq, and they were furious with zarqawi. how dare you send him to the battlefield. this is a guy who was commenting and making, advancing statements
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short on issues to do with religious beliefs and so on and ideology. so from that respect we see a clear difference between the strategically oriented jihadis, those who wanted to use religion to advance an objective and those who are sectarian like zarqawi who is prepared to sacrifice strategic objectives in order to purify the faith. attention was always palpable, even in lawton and zarqawi knew right then and there when they met him but they were also, he says in fact later on, he says that they had refused to teach his books and their training camps and that's why zarqawi didn't want to join al-qaeda initially. that's according to others. but then later on everybody, bin laden and others were more
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pragmatic later on. they brought in someone when he became a valuable. it seems to me his issues, it's not that the regime only used to biggest also using the regime. but also abusing the jihadis provocative because it is prepared to revisit or say something about his disciples every time he wanted a lenient sentence from the jordanians establishment, and it seemed as if you look at the trajectory of his time in and out of prison, it's one where he was willing to make concessions and center after we see being released from prison. >> do want to add anything? okay. i will ask one more question to joby. you describe in depth in the
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book i think quite well about the military advance and develop an of these fusion cells under general mcchrystal that were highly mobile, included special forces together with intelligence analysis and resources as being the only way, the brakes are against the fight against the insurgency provoked by al-qaeda and iraq. with that in mind, do you see anything that we can learn from isis now? in other words, is the air war that's been going on for over a year sort of not winnable without that kind of action on the ground? and certainly special offers in
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syria are not enough, but do you see that trend heading in any direction because of general mcchrystal's success? or was that sort of apples and oranges? >> the united states eventually develop a pretty good operational strategy against zarqawi's movement that it took them three years to get it up and running, lots of trial and error, some real boneheaded mistakes early on. what essentially brought zarqawi's movements on as his was two things. one was the anbar awakening which coincided with improved tactics but the other part was this intelligence/special operations group that ran out of general mcchrystal's operation and what was successful about it was the fact they moved from doing, bombing at a distance or large troop operations to high tempo, intelligence capture and
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kill and then later killed capture with a greater emphasis on killing going after al-qaeda every single night. i've talked to a lot of these guys involved in the program, tough guys future glad they're on our side from essentially allowed, get up come have breakfast for dinner and didn't go out at night and they would hit safe houses three or four times a night night after night afteafter night. as soon as it as soon as it hit one house they would collect intelligence and use it immediately to buy the second target. it was high tempo never given the enemy time to or regather and they were effective in taking a second, third tier commanders and eventually killing zarqawi himself all coming out of this operation. a couple of problems translate that to the current situation. what a force with full control over iraq at the time and sense of control over the airspace, cooperative government with significant resources and just ability to run across the country doing what we wanted to do. the effect was a relative small
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groups did make a big difference ultimately in the defeat of al-qaeda and iraq and i remember sitting with intelligence folks in 2008 who were convinced that al-qaeda in iraq was finished, operationally they been defeated. that didn't happen. it became what we know as isis today. i think you see the movement of small groups of special operations professionals into the theater. i think there's some indication that would like, there's the hope to reprise that successful formula using local forces encouraging others with a flash and trainers and instructors who could help replicate a successful experiment. whether they can do that in a country like syria without full control over airspace and without that kind of intelligence network we have in iraq is a huge question and remains. >> nelly, no use in trying to
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answer to that. we have ample time for q&a. so please identify yourself and keep your questions as short as possible. the gentleman in the front. the microphone will come to you. >> thank you for your discussi discussion. i want to preface my question with a rather cynical observation. that if the current condition of u.s. political process, system of governance were in existence in 1941 we would be speaking japanese and german today. my question is this. since september 11, 2 administrations have made strategic errors the range from catastrophic to ludicrous. mr. bush failed to ask and answer the what next question. the obama administration draws red lines, spends half million dollars training five people and
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sends it to special forces. how do you account for that? on the problems too tough for is the political process such that it's very difficult to make rational strategic choices that are openly effective? >> that is a million dollar question. all i could offer on that is just, it's instructive to look at the example you just cited and see that the failures that happened again and again often because we did ask the question what comes next or because we did not have the strategic vision to see what was around the corner, i think in the case of the obama administration, they were suddenly thrust into middle of this arab spring movement that no one seemed to know what to do with. at good allies been threatened and eventually toppled, deciding it's better, project more america interest to side with the demonstrators even we were not sure what would happen next. i think we're pretty hopeful something good could come out of
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it. in almost every case it's been a disaster. how we could've gotten ahead of that, i don't know. it's a tough one. but whatever case. i remember talking to senior folks here, and also even in the region, convinced assad was going to fall. of course, will have a stable government in this critical place. and it just didn't make it happen and now we are in a situation where you can't see the end of this. even with the russians and iranians and americans and everyone there. where does this end? nobody can still answer that question. that's been a failure since the beginning. we don't know where it is gone and we can' can come up with ans about how to solve it. >> thank you. john craig from the center for american progress. joby, you said at the end that
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the embers of the zarqawi operation transition into isis. and i want to ask a question about why zarqawi. both ben and joby described the debaathification and the disbandment of the iraqi military as tragic mistakes. but, in fact, they were part of the neocon agenda. i don't think they were tragic mistakes. i think every deliberate policies that were pursued by the administration at the time. so what happened to the iraqis that were effected by it quits why was zarqawi, he's not even an iraqi come and where were all those devout this an iraqi military people while zarqawi was organizing? why didn't they have a role and why did we see only zarqawi and describe zarqawi as the opposition to the american
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occupation of? >> i think it's part of zarqawi's genius, weather was delivered or just opportunistic. but here is someone who believed long before the recession took place a few is going to have with the united states, he was destined to have a. he missed out on the chance to fight the soviets. the iraq war was going to happen is going to be there on the ground to help lead the resistance against a. but he brought this interesting mix of these radical jihadists, not islamist, but these jihadists what a vision for fighting a superpower, driving the into the out of iraq. it very quickly joined forces with the locals. so there was a mix of former baathists and suddenly unemployed military officers who didn't really share zarqawi's vision for how he wanted to run a society bus i strategic opportunity to join forces with its extremist element.
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professional iraqis, bureaucrats and military officers with these sort of fanatical jihadists, that was the combination that made zarqawi movement so powerful it is way behind isis today. you've got guys who were, i'm convinced come in the senior leadership of isis that don't particularly share some of the ideological and theological views of the guys like al baghdad to basra in which see the value of isis as a weapon for going after the shiite government in baghdad and reclaiming lost sunni glory. i think that's the innovation that they can with zarqawi and is what at the heart of what isis is today. but you're absolutely about the mistakes. we look at the them charitably s mistake that everyon everyone oe decision was quite deliberate and what i described in some detail in the book, this idea
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trying to create, to turn zarqawi at the time an unknown job time an unknown jobs figure in 2002-2003 into this poster child as connection between saddam hussein's government and al-qaeda which didn't exist. the cia was convinced of the time zarqawi had no connection to saddam hussein but colin powell ghost united nations and makes his case for the invasion and puts zarqawi's picture up on the screen before the u.n. security council to this is this horrible problem and that became part of the justification for the invasion. >> if i may add. in iraq prior to 2003 most people did it to be baathist whether they believe it or not. it was part of the quality of the ticket you need in order to get into university or to do things. so the debaathification had enormous defects in impact on those who really didn't like even saddam, but still had to be
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part of the baathist party. that's why the new regime post 2003 lost many talented better than part of the new government and are actually excluded will because they were just baathists. i do want to say that many of them actually ended up fighting and formed groups, and it was the natural thing for them to do, and fight alongside zarqawi and still he started to get to know him a little better. and once they started get to know him better, we find that there was enormous divide between zarqawi and with former baathists and others. in fact, it was obama's, one of his very first public statements he called on the baathists to join, and he appealed to the baathists to say that we call on
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you, particularly those were in the military. he called on them to join the islamic state of iraq, so long as they could have actually do some basic knowledge of some koranic verses and so on. and he's the one who did the outrage. reached out to the baathists, reached out to the kurds in his public statements spent just add to that. it is clear that enough of early outreach by zarqawi himself to accomplish some pretty amazing things are going. the first big attack in 2003 attributed to him were against the u.n. compound in baghdad, the jordanian embassy, against major shiite facilities, all using improvised bombs made from iraq aircraft munitions. so there was help from inside a lease in providing not just equipment but also the intelligence. here's a guy who gets in from outside the country, have an intelligence network pretty
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quickly to scout out locations, to coordinate attacks and have some really powerful, locally produced munitions with which to attack, all which points to the station and help from well-placed iraqis. >> this gentleman in front. >> this. -- [inaudible] for joby warrick. in the most leaders we've seen increasing islamic state activity in afghanistan and other areas outside the region. what evidence did you see of the basic iso, those in syria at
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iraq, are they providing just an example, or is there money can leadership, advisors? do you see any evidence of a greater link and could you just give an example of? >> that's a question that still remains to be full answered in my view. i've been convinced this both by inspiration and example. sometimes the community with their own propaganda that they speak to each other through their own facebook postings and tweets and things like that giving encouragement from the central organizations, some of his sibling organizations out around the region. it will be interesting to see what happens ultimately with downing of the russian put a couple weeks ago. if that doesn't turn out to be an isis of produced bomb, the big question will be was that something that is local isis affiliate in the sinai was able to put together a something abstract and somehow equipment,
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supplies, knowhow came from central isis in rocket? i don't know the answer to that but it will be telling to the extent to be central isis has command-and-control capability some of these organizations are i think right now you see beheadings in places like afghanistan just a couple of days ago, libya. there's a lot of that going going on, but i think would be crazy to rule out the possible some coordination, ideas and logistics. >> let's take three questions from the back. the gentleman right there. >> the prevailing opinion amongst the syrians and iraqis is that the united states is behind the islamic state. the u.s. treasury belatedly decided to look into how the islamic state obtained those hundreds of brand-new toyota
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pickups they used to take over in northern iraq. what do you suppose they're going to find? >> let's take a couple. >> james from the british embassy. it strikes me that when did it with an adversary or an enemy, the idea of giving them credibility is always a dangerous thing. actually calling them the islamic state or isis, we have been exactly that. have the past the point of no return and how they are branded and how that effectively gives an enemy on an adversary like this a credibility that they desire? >> my name is brooke. thank you for being here. i just want to ask you to talk a little bit about recruitment, jihad is recruitment, and how isis has influenced al-qaeda's
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ability to recruit jihadists and have the recruitment processes have changed as a result of the rise of isis. >> nelly, i'll ask you to start without question. in addition to the islamists-isis branding, talk about perhaps who in the islamic, or islamic world community has some credibility about condemning. and joby writes about the efforts to get various clerics to speak up against them, but how is that working? where that's going. i'll ask joby in general about the u.s.-iraqi contribution to the rise of isis, which i think
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stems more from the fact that they've taken over a lot of bases and equipment that are from the iraqi army. so let's start with you. >> sure. let me start with this question though, what we call them in the issue on credibility. i think one broad issue to do with the naming and using religion, i think when we analyze groups like i.s. and so on, it's really important to realize and understand when religion matters, how it matters, but more importantly when it does not matter. and this is unfortunately lacking in the analysis.
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because we see sometimes religion as being a medium for opposition, political participation or something completely different other than theological issues. and this is where i think theology and efforts to bring in the clerics and give us a three hour lecture on the islamic tradition and so what is really not going to appeal to the young person who is not motivated simply because a spiritual reasons, but because they really want to do something. this really talks about the recruitment part, borders on the recruitment part because here, you know, i think firstly we need some time to work out really what is behind that recruitment strategy and to understand the foreign fighter phenomenon. my colleagues are doing a broad study about foreign fighters complicated very, very large data set based on open-source a
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hopefully that will give us at some point some meaningful answers about why people join and so when. but roughly speaking, we are seeing, from my own perspective, we are seeing a different kind of people who are joining i.s. and here theology does not seem to be something that is critical because we are seeing many young people who are converting to join i.s. and i.s. is being, juno, islam is a ticket to becoming a jihadi, rather than jihad becoming a ticket to become muslim. this is very important and it cannot be stressed enough. but at the same time we can't really say, you know, what do we call them. it is not up to us. i think the groups, the islamic state, is best described by al-qaeda when it denounced it.
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they called it the group that calls itself the islamic state. in arabic it is -- which is the group of the state. in other words, it is not in and of itself the state. and i think this is a more accurate description. i am a little concerned, a little cynical about isis, isil. because they all contained in in the islamic state. i would rather call them the group that calls itself the islamic state. appropriate that it is the group, it is not a state in this sense it is not seeking a seat at the united nations, nor does it wanted nor is it going to have a seat on the united nations. so i think, you know, some of these things we need to acknowledge, how groups defined themselves. we can't just decide what they defined themselves because when we study then we need to acknowledge our part. but at the same time when he did
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stress the other aspect is the. >> before you leave the army, the new can create a new acronym that they are quite successful at. >> tell me about it. >> joby, final words smack just to wrap up. you can forgive people enrichment all kinds of conspiracy -- conspiracy theories, u.s. funded a fact in some way. i always amazed when i traveled the region how pervasive some of these conspiracy theories are, and there's a lot of people who are educated, people who really follow the news and they're convinced the isis desecration of iran. others are convinced the u.s. is backing isis instantly. i think the biggest argument is maybe the pickup truck argument, it's true it's remarkable a western equipment, in this case japanese trucks, but all of this left behind by american forces, contractors.
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where did all this toyota trucks come from? it turns out on this contractors, security contractors that ran the bases and did food preparation, all this logistical stuff for one in 50,000 american troops left all their equipment behind. soviet huge parking lot full of these vehicles and isis just liberated them and assign them to themselves. that's the least o of the problm because you whole divisions worth of humvees, arms, you name it. is probably without probably the best armed, best equipped terrorist organization the world has ever seen. it's funny because we worked so much as the country about giving arms to syrian rebel groups because god forbid is some of those would fall enhance of isis. but instead what they did was rated our own former bases in iraq and to the stuff for themselves. >> any other burning questions? last one.
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>> thank you for this discussion. i am alex and i'm working for the voice of america. i question refers to the actors and specifically to the foreign actors. .. >> i think ideologically that would be very, very difficult. unless, unless they're trying to

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