Skip to main content

tv   Key Capitol Hill Hearings  CSPAN  November 24, 2015 12:00am-8:01pm EST

12:00 am
by a similar version but then to be here in the united states. but tuesday that competition in the marketplace with multiple injuries into that molecule. two or three or four that is
12:01 am
likely to have been over the next few years. but at most of these can expire between now and as a decade. . .
12:02 am
12:03 am
8quadrillion, and down at the bottom is emergency visits. we still have 4 million emergency room visits. in some cases if you have less use of antibiotics, fewer prescriptions, better but you have a lot more prescriptions. this is what we expect in the us marketplace between now and 2020. and the important thing is, and as i get older my eyes get a little bit weaker, and i, and i cannot read the screen -- read the screen here. we are expecting the growth rate to slow down. we expect the compound
12:04 am
between five and 8 percent between now and the end of the decade. it will slow down. at list price we will be looking at a market of 560 to 590 billion dollars, 34 percent increase over 2014 and we expect spending to stay about the same. let me leave you with some closing thoughts. i go a little late on this one, but i have two minutes to go through the slot. the new hepatitis c drugs are cures. the innovation are major
12:05 am
drivers of the trend, so we will see more patients treated. so the payer focus, and stevefocus, and steve miller will talk about this this afternoon is that hepatitis c gets out for the reasons i mentioned. the pd one orphan drugs, although i have not heard discussions. think for a minute, as the secretary said, 3 million patients treated with hepatitis d in the united states. the prices of these products came out around 100,000 and are now around the $50,000 range. , but $50,000 for 3 million patients is a hundred $50 billion. pts j 9 up to 100 billion.
12:06 am
td one is undetermined, but they are the next new thing, and orphancommand orphan drugs are often in excess of 200 million apiece. and to think for a minute if we developed the 1st successful alzheimer's or dementia treatment how many people have alzheimer's or dementia in the united states and how much that would cost. we will have this big challenge so that the innovation is there and we have the ability to treat more patients but trying to come up with the money. the more the prices will come down. and the application, the fda said they had 14 million patient cases of therapy.
12:07 am
the appropriate patient population is to make sure that you are getting the right drug and patient population and i think that they will be very clean -- keen on controlling that. we have seen that in hepatitis d and will see more in the future. my last thought was more appropriate use of medicines that will save money in the marketplace. with that, thank you very much for your kind attention. [applause] >> good morning. great to follow doug and aa pleasure to be with all of you on this important topic. healthcare, particularly for prescription drugs. critical for all americans and i appreciate the bringing together of diversity points. and i want to give a quick thanks. and i wish to pick up where
12:08 am
doug left off and going to a bigger picture around the trends and issues around value. they might be taken to address the challenge of achieving these goals of the same time. and talk about the options different issues for different types that you get from a pharmacy versus intravenous that are typically delivered by -- by a physician. and a few minutes at the end
12:09 am
and incorporating reforms into overall healthcare payment reform. i want to start out they're have been diabetes, hiv. when ilo was in medical training we cannot do anything. now that has transformed. genetic disorders and other diseases the previously were much more fatal. answer, mortality death
12:10 am
rates as inclined by 20 percent. i mentioned hiv. 80 percent in the last 20 years and this is just the front end of changes that are coming. they are targeted therapies that fall into the specialty class because of high prices that are expected because of potential impacts which gets to a why this discussion is so important. several components, the impact on avoided healthcare cost which i have heard about already. enabling people to get back to work mentioned this
12:11 am
morning that the pharmaceutical industry brings with it but the most important thing to emphasize is the impact on the last., longer and better lives for americans. there have been some evidence to suggest significant downstream cost savings. ten to 20 percent would be off that. many -- nonetheless,
12:12 am
nonetheless, they are overall a pretty good deal. eighteen to 20,000, aa technical term that could capture the notion of cost-effectiveness. that. that said, a lot of drugs show very different estimates and there has been a wide estimate. the value of the drugs. there is a nice report on the one hand it is hard to capture all of these dimensions. patients that have different preferences cost issues and health outcome issues. on the other hand there is a
12:13 am
lot of evidence that the value today varies tremendously. 200,000, 500,000 or more. and with that framing there is so much attention to the cost of prescription drugs we have had this bump in recent years.
12:14 am
overall national health expenditures a slowdown in prescription drugs. the overall slowdown and then the big push up recently. this breaks out the experience with prescription drug growth. thethe last couple of years have been a particularly tough time for medicaid programs.
12:15 am
private health insurance growth has been particularly slow but overall spending trends are moderating for medicaid programs the growth rates expected to be higher than they have been in the past. and this means the prescription drugs are contributing more to overall health care spending, and there is some upward trend. according to the national health estimates prescription drugs have remained 10 percent of overall spending. much of the nonretail use of drugs, those administered in hospitals and other places, not in retail settings which could get the number to 13 or 14 percent and i highlight a point, if you
12:16 am
really want to address overall health care spending it is important to look at not only the direct cost but the impact on other parts of the healthcare system command i will come back to that as well. also out of pocket has been a significant issue for growing number of americans, and the overall context, it has been a significant part, but not the only story. again, highlighting the importance of speaking about drugs. that said come out of pocket spending is higher for patients with many kind of disorders. higher than out-of-pocket spending for hospital care, professional service care and other components of healthcare which suggests that there may be ways of addressing the costs by taking on how to bring down overall costs in the context
12:17 am
of prescription drug use. so with that as a way of framing of the bigger cost and value issues i want to turn to the policy options. how much to emphasize access now versus incentives how long should it be. also medical or government price association. the best price for
12:18 am
negotiation. pharmaceutical benefit managers, selective formularies and utilization reviews but may have impact on access. allowing more unrestricted pricing which many people talk about being part of a competitive market but most of these are paid by a 3rd party insurance plan which is why they are taking steps of limiting utilization. and that is why we have this debate, this balance.
12:19 am
they are taking to try to make the process more predictable that is unquestionably having an impact on drug development, and some cases substantially reducing the cost of drug development but it is important to keep in mind the cost of rejection is not related to the price and the value of the drug. that is why many efforts to look at a value of around cost-effectiveness and other systems i talk about are focusing on the actual price versus what the drug is doing. there is another type of policy reform proposal, the ones that promote access and
12:20 am
innovation. policy reforms strengthen the incentive for developing valuable treatment and at the same time encouraging high prices that don't look like a value and thus lead to unnecessary spending on pharmaceuticals, and you will here more later today as well. the role of government versus the private sector. so i want to talk about these efforts because they are different. on the one hand, the time to throw the type of drugs included and medicare type t and some of the big cost control efforts, the high-value involving
12:21 am
pharmacy benefit managers, tiered benefits, lower cost or more valuable drugs. in this area the proposals that have been put forward encourage innovation and spending. this is something that the fda not as part of the explicit policy has had a role in. others that were in development at the same time potentially accelerating both at the time the new treatment is available and bringing down brands. there have also been proposals for more accountabilities for
12:22 am
insurers. for example -- in the medicare program today, close to half of the spending is in the catastrophic part of the drug benefit, more use of higher-priced drugs that can have a very big impact. most are paid for by the government through additional costs with medicare covering 80 percent of the cost. a different model might put more on the insurers. manufacturers may have more accountability, and as we will talk about as well in broader effort to reform.
12:23 am
another type of drug use that involves intravenous, drugs that are generally administered, a lot of cancer drugs that come into play, a different type of pricing system that does not involve pvm and formulary management about whether medicare has a system where its payments to the drugs, organization is based upon the average sales price of the drug similar systems are used other third-party payers or if it is a
12:24 am
contributor. in terms of reform here some people suggested shifting toward those that have been used toward oral drugs. maybe as more alternatives come forward this could be a more viable option and there are proposals as you will here today, available to certain purchasers of drugs, medicare has had consideration they could get the same payment and once
12:25 am
again as alternatives which have their drawback shift to value -based payment. the 3rd category involves a generic bio similar drugs which are typically much lower. you heard from drug -- doug. the billions of dollars in savings that typically lead to 80 or 90 percent more price decline and i want to highlight the importance. it is not just bio similars, but the availability of drugs in the same class has led to significant price decline as well. you heard from doug about the increase in generic dispensing and even though
12:26 am
brand-name drugs make up a small part and now a smaller part of the total expenditures, prescription heading to over 90 percent of the total account for an increasingly important part. some issues involved here are that practice does not always match theory. high profile cases in the news are not for knew brand-name drugs by drugs that represent molecules that have been on the market for a long time and where the prices, high prices seem to persist with generic drug shortages or companies being able to wave prices and not
12:27 am
see a competitive response. further policy development involves finding ways to make the generic drug market work better. between generic drug user fees and other challenges, even small molecule drugs they are coming. there are policy issues on how it will impact formulary pricing. more significant, and many involve part b drugs there will be challenges around how to price those.
12:28 am
i want to and with comments about where things are headed next talking a lot about the alternative between higher prices versus more access and innovation versus availability and value -based payment. prior evidence. cost-effectiveness threshold set by government. to support these kinds of approaches, payment based on results and value -based inferences.
12:29 am
we are beginning to see that they have prices and formulary tears, value -based insurance pram, something like no co-pay for drugs that have the highest value that bring down the most. and then those doing less well. it is not quite the same thing as what we have now with specialty tears. in terms of getting to these approaches steps like risk adjustment are important. more payment into the insurance plan. take steps that make those jobs more available to high-risk patients. we have measures that can be observed in a timely way for
12:30 am
drugs like coronary artery disease, diabetes, hypertension, hiv, but in many other conditions we do not have these type of measures easily available. better outcome measures can help. also what is needed is better evidence. lots of other factors influence outcome. collaborative efforts to get through the healthcare system are important. in moving to knew payment models there are regulatory issues that would have to be addressed. they could be triggered by drugs that are highly valuable versus indications that are less highly valuable getting in the way. finally, ii would like to
12:31 am
end by highlighting the importance of including drugs and broader payment reform. a high level goal and a bipartisan goal and has been reflective, alternative payment models for physicians and other healthcare providers that they work with, many of whom right now could put more accountability on healthcare providers for using high-value laws effectively, clinical pathways, episode -based payment models where physicians are involved in care and could have to take on more accountability for using drugs efficiently, the accountable care organization and it is
12:32 am
important to think about the ways in which drug manufacturers might care based upon results of care, accountability for care. and this is an important feature of moving toward more personalized medicine. this will increasingly very based upon things that healthcare providers working with drug manufacturers can do, using the drug effectively with other treatments. there is not one intrinsic value. would it not be nice if some of the efforts around drug sales and other promotions or better aligned with getting the best outcomes at the lowest cost per patients , especially those who can benefit the most.
12:33 am
this might give way to the current sale 1st strategy, one that could work for you until you fail the others 1st. again, obstacles since our current systems are based upon the fee for service approach rather than this pay for value as part of an overall healthcare system approach. breaking down the separation between part d pricing and impacts on amd healthcare costs and incorporate and enabling the incorporation of drug price systems, a look at home medicaid best price and other. you will here more later today. these are not easy problems to solve but are absolutely critical command i am
12:34 am
confident we can do better than we can today. thank you for the opportunity. >> thank you. we have a $400 biopharmaceutical today. so a lot of growth. inherent in that, specialty drugs accounting for 35 percent of sales. oncology, have see, cps canine. generics, that is slowing down the issue and is
12:35 am
constituting 9 percent sales growth annually. what we have ahead of us is amazing and impressive. 7,000 rare diseases. a member of active substances. similar. and as you said powerfully we are getting value in terms of avoided health cost and expenditures. both of you reference cost-saving potential whether it is getting patients to adhere more to the drugs they ought to be taking, evidence -based treatment, correct use of drugs which you mentioned,
12:36 am
lots of other management tools as well as policy options. we can look at approaches. we can look at opportunities for putting part c more and to immigration -- integration of other payments. and achieve a lot of the value. when i was a new pharmacist
12:37 am
that human insulin came out at around $20 a vile. how could people possibly afford this. today it's over $250. so my question to you is, how either one of your organizations measured aside from the value that we have captured generics, the cost and trend in the new innovation what is the impact of the pure increase in the brands on the market and what more have we been paying as a country because of that issue. >> we have looked at policies that could help
12:38 am
make the generic market potentially work more efficiently. the whole point is it should be easy to come in if drugs are being priced above that cost of manufacturing and provide a lower-priced alternative. in generics, not the bulk of small molecule generics, that does not seem to be happening and is something that the fda seems to be looking into. the manufacturing and other requirements, ways to streamline the processes through manufacturing regulation but encouraging more competition. i identified a different kind of problem than that of
12:39 am
how to address the cause and provide access for knew specialty effective target securities. >> give us a quick sense of the price figures. >> i don't knowi don't know of an answer off the top of my head. a lot of things happen. the pbm, in a better position. the backlog at the fda is higher than it has ever been >> approval. >> higher and longer than it has ever been. not even taking a big blob at the backlog. >> the production is fractions of the sent.
12:40 am
it is a serious issue. >> 200 billion or more associated with nonappearance.
12:41 am
>> i'm afraid we will have time for one more question. >> george peter. the us does not have a fair arbiter. the national health service in the uk. >> that is a topic that will, later today. non- rebate prices and the actual prices.
12:42 am
one of the things is building that in there have been a number of efforts to characterize r-value. the drug payments that account for coverage with development and hopefully we can develop more of that.
12:43 am
using the value determinations in corporate sector approaches. >> as if we are having this meeting ten years from now a lot of this would be a moot. submerging around the world. that will lead to a much more value -based system. in the next ten years if you can demonstrate outcome you will have no income. >> the big question is how quickly and effectively we can get from there to where we are now. >> thank you.
12:44 am
you have zero down to the ground level and the challenges that we will face. we will take a quick break reconvening. you know where to find your escort. [applause] [inaudible conversations]
12:45 am
>> we will focus on addressing patient access. all of today's faculty biographies are available.
12:46 am
right here next to me is heather block, consumer advocate and patient. next to her is ceo of the national health council, beyond good is with us, associate director for public depend -- public opinion and survey research. drug editor from consumer reports -- excuse me, consumer union. chief policy officer. each of these folks will tell us a little bit of their perspective. we will begin with you.
12:47 am
>> i have to begin with a shout out to the staff. have not been in the building in decades. under very different circumstances. everyone's story is unique and huge but boring and frightening to everyone else. was in my 40s and living in afghanistan they're is
12:48 am
enough medical know how that i do not need to explain further. i have to dip into savings each month. i am outliving my prognosis. putting the majority through right now. my top issues are as follows , transparency. buried in price from 47 to 9800 per month, lot $270,000 in medical bills. i have no idea what the actual cost is. number to the under 65
12:49 am
disabled population they have the right to turn me down and refuse me or offer me ridiculously expensive premiums for 20 percent coverage.
12:50 am
just for the one drug. the aca regulated. so this remains a problem. as cancer care progresses. tries are increasingly stacked. i have grown to despise this term. chosen to do away with the most comprehensive medigap plan. is most of my savings enough
12:51 am
and that is my day to day existence. i could be any of you. >> thank you very much. >> i wish to commend heather it is but it is all about. i also want to thank the secretary for convening this meeting with all of the stakeholders. organize to have organization is controlled. we have all stakeholders in membership.
12:52 am
we work to achieve solutions to complex situations that are patient centered but involve all stakeholders, and this is the only approach where we can address this issue. over the course of the last several decades we have done research on people with chronic disease and what they tell us routinely is they make money off of the development of treatments but also understand that it drives innovation and better care. more recently research has shifted on how plans are
12:53 am
structured. increasingly what we are finding is they are going into insurance products that have taken one was one of the most great benefits they find they hit their maximum out-of-pocket cost before they get there 1st medication which can for many people amount 20 percent of annual income. it discriminates against people with chronic condition. and people with chronic conditions are getting angry.
12:54 am
finding a solution will not be easy but as we heard, and it starts by identifying value and looking at value from the perspective of people with chronic disease. we cannot simply address the cost of one item without looking at the entire healthcare ecosystem. a hugely important part but we must look at the entire ecosystem and decide what is value and how we will promote value and we cannot define value without patient perspective which leads me to the fact that we continually conflate consumers and patients. while we are part of the same community we are on
12:55 am
opposite ends of the spectrum. they go in and use it as needed for an acute care incident. they go home as if nothing happened. when diagnosed with the disease were have a child who will wither and die before there 18th birthday you have an entirely different perspective on what value and innovation is. the public opinion context.
12:56 am
stems from the question we asked in april more than ten different topics but what we found was that making sure high-cost drugs were available and affordable, this ranks number one across parties. this should be a priority. the other thing was government action. again, to items came above a number of other issues
12:57 am
related to consumer protections, and we just re- asked this question and found similar results. this stems from the polls until we followed up with a number polls to see how. what we found is that drug costs are unreasonable but at the same time most say they are having an easy time affording them. still, they have a difficult
12:58 am
time affording drugs which is more of a problem for people in poor health. people taking three or four or more drugs i have type a teacher for. then report that it is not personally an issue because the issue resonates well with the public and is one of the key ways that the public interacts. nearly everyone can say they have taken a prescription drug in their lifetime. with pharmacies or care providers, much larger than when they are going to an office where those sorts of things and see the cost of the drug.
12:59 am
even if you are not paying much because you have insurance. one other thing is, it is important to keep in mind that these drugs impact a relatively small area of the public. and my last point, in general the public does not have the best view, but most like the product and have improved lives and make american lives better. ..
1:00 am
1:01 am
>> >> other people didn't realize they should have shopped around. we're going to talk about high price specialty medications but talking about more mundane drugs because our polls have shown if they cannot afford medications able to dangerous think there will not of the zero medication are taken as directed or switch without asking that
1:02 am
because of high medication cost sometimes they skip doctor visits, procedures or test. that could lead to a worse health outcome. and with that in mind i an editor of a program called best buy drugs we have comparative effectiveness research looking at how effective the day are. is a live just compared against a placebo. those that were effective and affordable.
1:03 am
and part of this effort and what is that best way to save for it? these are work around solutions it is important to hear. using your insurance may not be the best deal. emotionally numb one every to scanlon drug test across the country you can get usually $10 more a three month supply.
1:04 am
those that have to pay the entire cost of their pocket may be the of formulas have changed so insurance as we don't cover it arabia has been dropped or high deductibles or a spike of a price so try to negotiate with your pharmacist. we had secret shoppers call hundreds of farmers these across the country.
1:05 am
one was that a supermarket in des moines iowa we rolled 75 the shopper said we're not using insurance so they came back and said $21. if you find yourself in the saturation shop around the same drug this theme string and same as the. can vary dramatically. we called around raleigh north carolina bill to you that nobody pays these
1:06 am
prices that is not exactly true. recalled independent pharmacies then that we called costco. they're telling us nearly $190 a they offered at 43. three actually agree on a lot of these issues. but to bring more stability to the marketplace as the been changed every 30 or 60 days. they want to see how well they work and how much they cost. a akio. [applause]
1:07 am
>> thank you for holding this meeting. i know families that break out into a cold sweat. as we have heard in his panel with those special the drugs that cost are exorbitant. with a specially drugs $53,000 the average price of a specialty drug. the median income is about $52,000 a look at social
1:08 am
security or medicare beneficiaries it is only 23. twice the cost of the average specialty drug. 3-1/2 times for one drug. that is a lot. so most of our beneficiaries and though they're taking three more drugs based on the number of prescriptions they have to fill to be exorbitant. and consumers don't pay full price in one way or another they're all paying for these drugs the skin in the game
1:09 am
can sometimes break your budget and those that are coming on to market at $16,000 per year we calculate how much people have to pay out of pocket it could be $3,000 per year that is from one drug to take every year and importantly if you aren't personally taking one you will pay for it to through higher premiums and other ways it affects the system in 2016 the average price has moved 13% and it will
1:10 am
make every betty's premiums go up that is a lot of money we will all pay for one drug. known is not simply consumers complaining. we have heard about people not taking the drugs in recent studies found those that have not fill the prescription and while we talk about medical innovation to fully support treatments or major conditions it is meaningless if nobody can afford it. and we will talk about access and ways to control cost. many insurance companies or
1:11 am
medicaid programs for them to get the treatments that they need in many times you have to have well liver biopsy to qualify. but in others there are other barriers to think not only about access and affordability together. other countries are doing it if we look at the cost of drugs and united states many times 10 times are 100 times the cost of $60,000 of the united kingdom $900 and egypt they should not bear the full cost in richet use
1:12 am
the tools then we have to add additional tools to make sure that drugs are affordable and all patients have access. [applause] >> so what we have heard is affordability is issue number one. we have heard the number one or number two issue about the high cost if you want the government to do something about it. and pricing is a particular issue having a single drug that is not understanding with the variation is coming from as they go to get drugs
1:13 am
they have been on for quite some time. and then the ship as the consequence so we hear about the various plan designs whether medicare with the catastrophic cost or what is left of the doughnut hole. with disabled americans and we heard the affordable care act plans are issued but from voting by costa by deductibles protected that the maximum amount of pocket level and also have separate
1:14 am
deductibles better hitting a lot of people and there are consequences not always in the best interest whether it is not fulfilling prescriptions or getting other forms of care that you mention and there are some tips can avoid taken by shopping around i love the notion of haggling make your act a bizarre. there are other approaches as well their policy approaches. as they are particular issues especially.
1:15 am
with the policy discussion and let's start with the patchwork those two are medicare and disabled to go from place to place to attack the issues on a state-by-state level but what do you think? what about a patient who has seen since with that inevitability that consumers have skin in the game and not your liver. >> it is time for national legislation.
1:16 am
it was raised as an issue when it was being discussed and developed but never have been -- have been. so they left the state's destitute. i into them writing a bill that i copied from several states i got my information from kaiser by the way. they cannot expect every person under 65 is disabled ted to figure are how to draft the bill. but the other issues gave a six month window of your
1:17 am
medical - - medicare eligible they you could not be underwritten. >> now to abolish that plan. >> i am buying into a plan that is going away there will not selling any more. there's your people on the plan by premiums will skyrocket. that i will no longer be able to afford that and it's not sustainable. and for those of us that under 65 and are disabled.
1:18 am
>> en the way that minimizes the pain that aarp has been working for many years and now more than ever in the you are offering advice on that score so let's start with you. >> everything is giving a sit-down with my father-in-law to get his description to see with his plan is. you may have been the cheapest plan last year but
1:19 am
what are the drugs your taking rainout. sova to check between different pharmacies is important and talking to your doctor to make your but there are benefits that nature rather revocation what i was trying to address was the interline drugs so it'd -- a bit is the treatment for the of condition to really have that negotiating power.
1:20 am
>> one of the biggest those that assume by the employer plans that get into a rhythm that you don't really looking at your formularies to underscore this time of year double check your plans and be mindful of high a deductible plans. with those that have a chronic condition to start a family to turn into a health
1:21 am
care consumer. >> as we heard from nearly a panel that may be one way to address the there are some plans the move in that direction for very valuable drugs. if you have to take them on a regular basis. there is a lot of that in the market today. what is your assessment? how do consumers of to stimulate that market? >> first is coming from the consumer's standpoint. at the pharmacy counter for
1:22 am
something you take all the time. as they sign up for affordable health care many more are covered in coming into the pharmacy go they're beginning to be educated there are some rage and consumer frustration to spur better plans to be focused on compliance instead of chasing bottom-line. >> as the kaiser tracking poll did you drill down any
1:23 am
further? today understand to keep those policies? >> we have passed more specifically how policy makers may take and in general the public is largely supportive and then to negotiate from those prices within to import the drugs from canada. the their choosing a higher cost drug.
1:24 am
in general to be supportive of these options it is still relatively early with the of differentiation as day, with their objections as those policies are developed to coalesce around one option or the other. what about the national health council?
1:25 am
where do they rate these various alternatives but cost is not the primary issue with those that have chronic conditions that don't like the fact that they pay so much out of pocket to see the doctors and specialists to access their care there is a lot of agreement it is it working. now to recognize to compel plans to keep high cost individuals out of their plans we have not made the
1:26 am
rules agreed new arena that is what part of needs to be looked at with the affordable care act. but they try to provide really good benefits but there is opportunities in is a critically important issue. they will often tell you the allied the price very few understand what the price was. they don't have that information what they mean is there want access to that drug. the other point to go back to your comment and access
1:27 am
is a huge issue in the marketplace especially of a lower economic status. to channel one of my board members with the 21st century roundtable. so the vast majority of people with chronic conditions once a treatment that they have to get better. so now where science moves to a place and we have never seen before.
1:28 am
and how we make them affordable is also a priority for the we have to look at the entire health care ecosystem how do we pay for innovation and make data accessible to all? >> that takes us back those and will continue your survival. and as vast majority of cancer treatments going for river targeted their peas peas, high price tag attached assure the. we all have this desire that will extend lives and have them be affordable.
1:29 am
>> first of all, i am not on targeted there be but i wish i was the look at it that we have to have access to every single drug those that will keep us alive. i am okay not having that personally. to see that the field moves forward their balancing affordability with access there has to be some give on the access side. so in order to make treatment more affordable. >> you think most patient groups are there?
1:30 am
>> this is the second time i have met her in from the patient's perspective that is so we're looking at that. with the $220 billion of low value service. but people with chronic conditions what they want is access for them. so they have to move away as treating people of average but we have to look and how we do treatments for 20% the drive cost for the 70%. to build day system that is different to say i will spend the time with you to
1:31 am
understand what is going on with the goals and aspirations for crow to help them catch the right option for the right person less care and research that shows cost to improve outcome. of the same stage of disease progression that one person wants to richer the other ones to eliminate that impacts his life he may not get the one that is right for you. of the personal circumstances see you often
1:32 am
see less care you can have an opportunity to save money. so how we in mind the incentives i am all for incentivizing the plans in to develop a high value treatment to do this great project in chicago that pay doctors to spend 120 minutes that our high cost of their coordinated and to have much better outcomes. but we do and that creates
1:33 am
high innovation and we have to recognize we have to make it affordable because there are tens of millions of people that are dying. >> coming back to the question of what should be done for all of this with the approaches with the role of competition and then to see with the hepatitis c drug. with the value based payment
1:34 am
and you mentioned in the obligatory perches. if you ask a r.p. membership would is a meaningful set of reproaches? >> they're frustrated they don't have the capacity i think dr. burwell is a smart cookie with a great team behind her and that is a powerful way to negotiate the she is forbidden to do
1:35 am
so. i think we need transparency as people deserve the right to know and how much was paid by a taxpayers to develop that drug arbor shirley with no information consumers don't have all the information they need. we should make that transparent to see the value of additional use of one drug over another. i also think there is whole list put out of policy recommendations that they can play an important role of a we are paying the price
1:36 am
>> we're opening this up to questions so review introduce yourself that would be terrific. terrific. >> adv
1:37 am
>> >> to support these issues is not fair or surprising as
1:38 am
the tool for their business but i gave that is what the union has been focused on. >> with pricing around the rebates most are not even aware to wind up with these strange anomalies with that medicare part b plan and the different drugs could be a different level so it is very complex so there are
1:39 am
still pavement's above those catastrophic amounts so that amount of protection even with the medicare marketplace can vary greatly in. >> two quick thoughts this discriminating against those with chronic conditions of socio-economic status. we have to recognize that and the plans put into place to compete on value so to help them solve the problem they are in in order to eliminate. i support spreading out the out-of-pocket cost month to month that the end of the day it will create pressure for other mechanisms.
1:40 am
we have to work with the plan to figure how they compete on value rather than excluding patients. >> in the case of california with a good drug copays there is some concern it doesn't get the larger pricing issues. >> it depends on how much they can afford but really it is an issue that we have to get the cost of the drug czar shared throughout the whole system.
1:41 am
>> i represent 118 oncologist with the high cost of cancer drugs. and then i am busy doing research this is what makes me fight so why do we need to reinvent the wheel? but medicare vestibule to negotiate. [applause] >> that was a hugely important article you ask
1:42 am
the fundamental question what is the value of the individual drugs what happens to the patients and their families that do everything to pay for them that is the conversation we need to have so thank you for doing an your co-authors. but there is something we have vast about over time for quite some time now. >> with america is health insurance plans you and as mentioned me out of pocket maximum without protection it did not exist before and
1:43 am
you mentioned also regarding coinsurance with that socio-economic status. we have the of brief out that does the simple math before you are one of the 50 percent of poverty or ruled in the silver plan then has the price tag of $95,000 that pays less than 1% of the cost of the drug so i have to ask what is the problem of cost sharing? if you truly believe in their not sufficient then is
1:44 am
that the most efficient policy? because higher income people could buy a platinum is a much different cost. >> i agree with much of what you said that by putting it in the context of an analysis of the marketplace to open up a woman in the district of columbia who has are dizzies and retrograde arthritis eligible for cost subsidies to also be eligible for out-of-pocket cost she would pay almost 20% of annual income over
1:45 am
the course of the year and depending on the plan she selected it could be in the first two months of the plan so those cost sharing mechanism is now working as effectively and if she had hepatitis c the insurance company would have picked up a substantial part of that. they are acting completely rational but what we need to do is to alleviate the pressures so they can provide affordable coverage that is not impacted that allows you to compete on value. we had to cheat medical officers nominate themselves
1:46 am
because they want to work with us on these issues and i want to work with you on these issues as well. >> with a proposal of the cost sharing subsidies given that the majority of americans still do like the affordable care act and we know plenty out there want to kill the entire law what is your sense how they respond to that? >> well we see public opinion it is pretty divided overall but we do find the public likes the different provisions of the lot. -- of a lot.
1:47 am
-- bill like the individual mandates but they do like the pieces that are in it. >> it seems like it is one more band-aid to put the caps on your not dealing with the issue is a band-aid if we increase subsidies session to read it to the root of the day problem? i feel like i am part of the problem by creating a band-aid maybe we need to say that will not help figure out. so the drug that i am paying $91 a month how much of that went to develop it has been around it was doubling the dosage but how much did that
1:48 am
actually cost? with those sloan-kettering additives so much higher. >> the minimum is four times higher. is anybody from astrazeneca in the audience? [laughter] >> [inaudible]
1:49 am
cement we're having microphone problems but would he said is that this was addressing the transparency on the pricing side for drugs. >> [inaudible]
1:50 am
1:51 am
still dash is dead important issue. for what we haven't a myriad of the health care system. wilson is being done? >> the broader point we do waste a lot of money and impose costs on consumers because of that. if we would take some of that back we could potentially afford to spend money on these innovative treatments that is in the pipeline. having had your members
1:52 am
approach at question? >> we have to look at the entire health ecosystem but it is all intertwined and a keen dash cost represents many people from getting care. what is the impact on the family budget? there is no impact because they never see the specialist may have to let the entire system and then it is high value products and high touched delivery designs to help with complex
1:53 am
chronic conditions that are falling through the? simply looking at each issue bin isolation and all the estimates are $220 billion in waste the vast majority is on 30 percent of the population to provide care that is not aligned with personal circumstances with huge opportunities to drive high value intervention in oslo to drive the cost down. looked at the package. >> suppose you are named to
1:54 am
renew a task force on biopharmaceutical. to the president our policy makers with a limited amount of time with those twitter recommendations with is the number one recommendation in you would make? >> access. >> with information for consumers with the comparative of the effectiveness studies to
1:55 am
have appropriate treatment to make sure the data is released to have a clearer picture of what is going on. >> this is the behest of the other evidence based practiced centers or a network dedicated to these issues to make sure everything comes out. >> that the public really does see this as a priority for those that need the high a cost drugs are available
1:56 am
and i would reiterate the point from earlier with deductibles. >> due balance appropriate access with preferences and the comparative effectiveness research at bedtime their driving patients and to consumers
1:57 am
for those to make informed decisions is a different environment. >> what the panel has said earlier so i represent middle-class now low income recipients and it is a struggle and not talking that would be no co pay to the private oncology office
1:58 am
and therefore not any of my state. so again i could be any of you. >> back includes the of morning session. as a reminder you're not to move throughout the building on your own if you want to purchase lunch on the top floor please go get an escort there also options outside into the left we will resume promptly at 1245. thank you to the panel.
1:59 am
>> i hope you enjoy your break we will move on to the next presentation we have the acting administrator for medicare and medicaid services. to be responsible for cost cutting policy for the marketplace programs including health coverage to combat health care fraud with the delivery of health care to improve outcomes. [applause] >> thank you for being here
2:00 am
today. i hope you enjoyed it so far this morning. it is great to see leaders from beijing groups health plans and providers and manufacturers here to come together for the same opportunity to insure americans have been maintain access to life changing and lifesaving treatments. . .nal" continues
2:01 am
2:02 am
2:03 am
2:04 am
2:05 am
2:06 am
2:07 am
2:08 am
2:09 am
2:10 am
2:11 am
2:12 am
2:13 am
2:14 am
2:15 am
2:16 am
2:17 am
2:18 am
2:19 am
2:20 am
2:21 am
2:22 am
2:23 am
2:24 am
2:25 am
2:26 am
2:27 am
2:28 am
2:29 am
2:30 am
2:31 am
2:32 am
2:33 am
2:34 am
2:35 am
2:36 am
2:37 am
2:38 am
2:39 am
2:40 am
2:41 am
2:42 am
2:43 am
2:44 am
2:45 am
2:46 am
2:47 am
2:48 am
2:49 am
2:50 am
2:51 am
2:52 am
2:53 am
2:54 am
2:55 am
2:56 am
2:57 am
2:58 am
2:59 am
3:00 am
3:01 am
3:02 am
3:03 am
3:04 am
3:05 am
3:06 am
3:07 am
3:08 am
3:09 am
3:10 am
3:11 am
3:12 am
3:13 am
3:14 am
3:15 am
3:16 am
3:17 am
3:18 am
3:19 am
3:20 am
3:21 am
3:22 am
3:23 am
3:24 am
3:25 am
3:26 am
3:27 am
-- tucker is the technology editor for defense one enjoins us to discuss the debate over digital encryption technologies and what happens when those tools fall into the wrong hands. bring us up to speed on what we terrorist the paris attacks and how they communicated before the attacks
3:28 am
and what this end to end encryption technology is part of how they communicated. guest: no evidence has surfaced to suggest that end to end user encryption was a part of the terrorist attack in paris. immediately after the attacks, there were many people in the national security community who went to the airwaves and publicly used it as an opportunity to talk about what they saw as the dangers of and to end user encryption for law enforcement and intelligence. so far, it seems that the failures of law enforcement and intelligence were linked to interagency disputes, the ability of the french to communicate with the moroccans and other law enforcement agencies and the terrorists were s, short message communication. they used text messages. encryption, the evidence suggests that despite an
3:29 am
explosion of hoopla in the hours immediately following these events, it was not a tool used by these attackers. host: let's explain what and to and encryption is. guest: the sounds fancy but it is simple. sound mass to ensure that when you as a device owner send a message to someone, only the intended recipient can read that message. you have a public key and a private key. share and key you create a message and send it to someone else. they verified and they use a key to open it you can make sure that the intended recipient is the person that opened it. when we talk about that, we are talking about a system that is mathematically certain to ensure that only the intended recipients can leave that message.
3:30 am
there's a big debate now -- sinceover the last september of 2014 but before that even, big technology companies have come out and said this is something we would like to roll out to more and more consumers. we think this ability is very important for them. it's a key component of privacy. what it does is if law like apple,goes to for example, who says they want system haver next -- the standard. there is a variety of different services that are springing up to offer this thing. if law enforcement goes to one of them even with a warrant and says we want to be able to look and intercept this particular communication between these people, the company can say we are physically unable to give that to you. there is no way we can even comply with this warrant.
3:31 am
debate is that you've got the technology companies saying this is essential to make sure your passwords and data stays safe. that will cut down on cyber hacking and keep incidents of cybercrime down, cyber fraud down. it's essential for a more hygienic internet and you have various law enforcement types and you have the british prime minister who has called for a ban on some of these encryption services. in the united states, law enforcement has taken a more moderate approach. the director of the fbi has called very publicly for some means of law enforcement to get in and intercept those communications even if there is something like encryption. host: this is the key to the back door? guest: bright. -- right. host: this changed the debate on the sunday shows yesterday.
3:32 am
[video clip] darkllowing up on these spaces -- is there any evidence that encryption was used? have you seen any evidence? i think there are strong indicators that they did. that is precisely why nothing was picked up. there were some mornings about a general plot underway with nothing specific. these guys were talking to each other on their iphones. in my judgment, they were talking in the dark space. that's how they pulled it off with out detection and that's the challenge and homeland. we know that they are talking to people in paris and belgium but also in the united states. we have caught to medications were they talked to people in new york and d.c. and frankly everywhere. host: we are asking our viewers to join in this discussion.
3:33 am
if you have questions or comments, these are the numbers -- chairman maccoll was talking about the sophistication of isis. what we know about that? just did acomment common confusion as to what encryption really is. we know they were using cell phones. they come with sim cards. criminals in the united states and elsewhere for decades have used very cheap, disposable cell phones to communicate and it's not something that is magical and has nothing to do with end user encryption. there is a lot of evidence outside these attacks that isis or members of isis -- we are talking tens of thousands of fighters in syria, iraq and
3:34 am
elsewhere. there could be as many as 46,000-90,000 twitter accounts. there is evidence that suggests some of those people using corruption to communicate. it's not directly part of these is attacks but it's something they do. centers an isis help that people who support the -- andnd getting contact get in contact and learn how to use different cyber security tools with better encryption. time, it's important to keep in mind that these are tools we all use. to enable much better communication. it enables much safer communication and keeps data from going missing. there is a question of whether compromisinguld be
3:35 am
or building defects into tools that offer a lot to the public in terms of better cyber security and in terms of better data integrity in order to facilitate certain law enforcement operations. that is the question we will be asking. technologyker is editor for defense one we are getting your thoughts and questions and we will start with ryan from george on our line for independents. caller: good morning. like to know if you can tell me if nsa has the ability to crack aes? host: what are we talking about? guest: i don't want to get it wrong.
3:36 am
if it was something that was part of the snowden disclosures, i have not seen that. iwould come back to you if have a better idea of what that is but i have not seen anybody saying that is something that. -- that they do. making communications more secure is a tool people use. are you still there? host: i think we lost him. guest: i will google that after the show. centreville, virginia, line for democrats. caller: this is a general question. we have a lot of equipment we left over there. they are using it in the war and am not sure why they cannot find some other agency or even some of these young people who are super technical to be able to shut some of that stuff down.
3:37 am
they have the wagon thing and they can tell you there's 6 million cars that have a defect. why we are not trying to do something different with that or trying to take their money away financially through technology. i don't get that. it seems like low hanging fruit. i will take your answer off the air if you have one. guest: it's a good question and i think there is a lot of people who are in the pentagon thinking about going forward in building new equipment and selling kill switches so you can have better control that how they are used. efforts to part of better arm our allies great you cannot retroactively install a chill switch on a piece of equipment you do not possess. that's basically impossible. we are talking about pieces of
3:38 am
equipment that the united states government game to iraqi security forces that have fallen into the hands of isis and things like that. in terms of radio and communication equipment, this is something we designed. i don't know how much of that stuff they have but we know they have heavy arms and things like that in terms of radio communication. we designed this so it was secure. back to a piece of machinery you are not physically in control of and install something on it that will at you in -- that will let you in. on pieces of agreement going forward, this is something they are talking about. how does d christian work? if we are talking about building in keys for decryption, how do you make sure the keys don't fall into the wrong hands? guest: what some in the united states government would like is a set of private keys that allow them to access all of the
3:39 am
different communications that would happen on any devices or through any services they are looking at. you into it allows that particular piece of can occasion. it works hand-in-hand with the public key which is something everyone has. the private he is only supposed to be in possession of the user, the person that is in physical contact with the device. what many law enforcement want is for their only to be certain and thenf private keys they can have them in a file or something that they can use them to presumably with a warrant, they would use this capability only with a warrant, to intercept those medications. this is the thing that -- intercept of those communications.
3:40 am
people are upset about fundamentally weakening this incredible capability. backdoors into these systems come into this method of communication, then you render it almost meaningless. there was a fascinating exchange last february between the head of the information security chief. michael rogers took objection to the idea that we should call them back doors. he says it sounds creepy. we are looking at capability that would allow was in the keep the premise of an christian intact. encryption intact. on behalf of the technology community, it has also specific interest in this case. they want to be able to sell services into places like china. that's going to be hard to do
3:41 am
who feelumers in china the united states government has a backdoor into their communications. it's not just a philosophical perspective about the purity of encryption. they also have a business interest in making sure they can sell into that market and ensure perfect privacy for foreign consumers. host: you talk about objections from the technology community and there are members of congress registering their objections -- rand paul was on television yesterday. [video clip] many in the intelligence committee are saying if we only had the bulk phone collection program back. what they are not telling you is we still have the phone collection program in the united states, all fun records are being collected all the time. we still had the attack. they have bulk collection in france and surveillance of their citizens at thousand full
3:42 am
greater than what we have with little privacy protection and they still did not know anything about this. i would argue that you can keep giving up liberty but in the end, i don't think we will be safer. we may have lost to we are as a people in the process. i will fight to make your that doesn't happen. host: we are talking about this debate over and to end encryption, digital technologies that are out there and the debate in the wake of the paris attacks. fletcher, north carolina, line for independents. i'm concerned with the way the news media leaks out , any technical information are ways we have found out about attacks. they leak it out and a lot of these people are just simple loan wolves. byy know enough just
3:43 am
watching the news what to do and what not to do. i think the government and the media should separate a little bit and give our security people a little more room to do their work without having to notify everybody about how we find people. host: that's part of the debate. is, there is a question as to exactly how much information in today's environment you can keep secret even if you are in government. in many ways, i think the snowden disclosures are key example. whether you think edward snowden is a hero or a traitor or maybe a hero that committed treason, it does not matter. he thing is for sure is that is the most famous systems administrator whoever lives and he was a common human being. he was a third party contractor and the government was overwhelmed by the amount of data it had as part of this program and several other programs so they went to a third-party to help them manage the load.
3:44 am
edward snowden had incredible access because the government was desperate for some means to find people, find companies, that could help them with all of this stuff and he took that information and went to different journalists. he would've gone to other journalists. brings into question the ability for governments to keep secrets anymore. folks inlk to government, they say it is becoming harder all the time. we create that through everything we do. when you collect data, in order to use it, you have to reveal it a little bit. this is fundamental to the way we live now. imagine thatble to you can find some tactic the government can use to intercept communications of something that might the controversial and imagine it's not useful and collect data that will not get out. the records suggest that is
3:45 am
impossible. terroristsould-be don't just use reports in the open news media to figure out what's safe for them to comedic it with. the islamic state regularly tutorials for their followers to let them know which applications out there are safe. here is a charge from open what "the wall street journal." unsafe apps inhe the moderately safe and the safest. guest: earlier this week, the u.s. army revealed they have a tech support center. isise made fun of it, having a tech support center. you him actually call them if
3:46 am
you are supporting member and talk to them about different tools you can use to hide to hide communications and allow safer communications and use information technology that is beneficial to the islamic state. this is something that is key to how they operate. this is something we know. program in dual terms of how they reach out to people. if got public channels in public communication and public propaganda to disseminate people and make them curious and then they have private indications with individuals they used to nurture would-be recruits into isis. this is something that's fundamentally different from the way al qaeda was operating even though this method comes from al qaeda in iraq method of recruitment. it eventually became 90% of isis.
3:47 am
when youhe idea that talk to them, you listen to them and you hear what they have to say and they applied it to everybody you interact with on the web. there was a fantastic piece in "the new york times" that talked about a young lady in rural united states that was having daily conversations with representatives from isis over a variety of different channels including private ones. isolated ineeling her rural community, she could reach out to ices and have a conversation with them. this is key to the way they operate. frombasically invisible the aspect of ices can medications we perceive on the news and in the media. host: staten island, new york, line for democrats, good morning. caller: thank you for c-span. in case i get cut off, i want to balancetucker if he can
3:48 am
what he is saying that sms was used. have indications they used the dark wet. does nobody understand that every time there's a terror attack, we had the legal structure in this country wanting to pull up everything like after the terrible attacks of 9/11 and they shove it down our throats. i'm reminded of the testimony of herman goering. he said people can always be brought along to do the bidding of the leaders. they are the people that make the decisions. . just tell the people they are being attacked and they are in danger and announce the peacemakers relax of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. this was his testimony 1946 and it seems we are always
3:49 am
counterbalanced with this information that we have a dangerous situation we need to give of our liberties and there are supremely people of a higher at shallot who can take care of things -- of a higher echelon who can take care of things. we need to be quiet but don't be too meddlesome. publicly, nothing is been revealed that shows and arruption -- encryption was direct part of the paris terrorist attacks. having said that, there was one who was ayoung woman, cousin of the mastermind and the french authorities had a warrant to tap her phone. poors revealed today that communication between french and moroccan authorities led to some
3:50 am
signals on that being messed. the encryption was not part of it however, if that person decided to encrypt their phone messages, it would have been difficult for law enforcement to have those phone calls. we are dealing with very monday and intelligence failures across -- according to news reports. in terms of the broader question if we are giving up more liberty , the illusion of more security, this is something that many people feel. it's hard to say how much trust people have in a government surveillance structure that claims to protect them from things it has not been able to reveal. they cannot talk specifics about when or how it's needed to use those tactics. when you look at the u.s. government and things that have
3:51 am
been revealed, they were forthcoming about a lot of capabilities they developed. there are number of different rulings that suggest that some capabilities they have developed were illegal. the obama administration has said the bulk collection of metadata is not something it is in favor of human though that may or may not be the case. there has been a reversal. said they clapper has made changes in terms of transparency and that's a type of acknowledgment that the government was perhaps overreaching its capabilities in some of its activities and now it is stepping back. it could be a response to public outrage but it is a tacit acknowledgment that we acknowledge that perhaps we were too aggressive in some of these things. the public is asking how many tools you get to do with zero accountability? the cia director john
3:52 am
brennan had a statement last week -- we are taking your calls this morning as we discussed that topic in this debate in the wake of the paris attacks 10 days ago. fort lauderdale, florida, line for independents. caller: good morning and thank you for taking my call. make an observation that every time these terrorists succeed, we tend to lose some of their freedoms. i blame this on lawyers and the administration.
3:53 am
it seems like they are not attacking the enemy. they are trying to make them feel better or they are trying to understand them. meanwhile, we lose more freedom. this is just atrocious. remember that 9/11 happened because the attorney general lawyers did not want to kill osama bin laden when we wanted to. that's all i have to say. rand paul is concerned about losing liberties. here is another tweet -- salt lake city, utah, line for democrats, good morning. i have been watching c-span since it began. i think it was 1989.
3:54 am
i have learned more than i can ever tell you from watching your station. i am very grateful for it. the specific comment i would like to make is i feel like we need to use isis tactics and fighting them. we need to fight fire with fire. specifically, the message they use, we need to throw it right back at them. that's all i have to say. they worry me very much. mostis one of the frightening things i've ever heard of since hitler. thank you. host: thank you for watching for so long. we actually go back to 1979. we want to talk about the ability of isis to communicate. president obama said they have a
3:55 am
good online twitter message. twitter was created in the united states out of sms. the idea behind it was that you could communicate with a whole bunch of people at once with a text message. bizinteresting that stone, one of the founders of twitter, was asked what interest you have in the revolution in moldova. ofs an interesting example that it's incredible to use and is making a lot of money and is going beyond the intent of its creators. them the president called terrorists with social media. guest: the united states is limited in its capacity to
3:56 am
counter the isis message on twitter and other social media directly. there is a state department campaign through a terrorism center that is an anti-propaganda center that has about a staff of 65 and 25 are again,ed to the think turn away campaign to use social media to counter the isis message. five of those people were from the pentagon. sis can have a i variety of different communications with people, as many as 46,000 pro-ices twitter accounts at any given time. report,g to a brookings that was 2014 and the numbers may be different now. twitter is trying to take a stronger stance. 2014, you had 46,000 pro-- isis twitter accounts compared
3:57 am
to 25 people with a state department and five of those are with the pentagon. the numbers don't match up even remotely. if you are with the state department come you cannot get into a twitter argument with any jihadist sympathizer on twitter. the costs are enormous and the benefits are small. you will make the u.s. government look bad if you lose. have two conversations between lots of different people and have specific one-on-one conversation so they get to do with this service, things the united states cannot do. there are ideas that have been proposed for improving our ability to counter some of that social media messaging, specifically going to different marketing firms that are good at this sort of thing and contracting with them to create counter isis content for social media and reach out and have
3:58 am
conversations about isis that reveals more about them. time, this is not to say that twitter is not trying to get a handle on this. they enforce terms of service. some people at twitter's sake don't tweet videos of beheadings. if you do this, your account will be suspended. there is some indication that it is working. twitter will suspend very popular accounts that are related to isis and then they will reemerge elsewhere and people within the media center at isis will redirect people to those areas you go to an account with 100,000 followers and live audience with 40,000 followers. there is no single account on twitter that has 40,000
3:59 am
followers. mind that thep in way that isis uses social media, we hate hearing about it but it's an important aspect of intelligence collection. in june, one lieutenant general talked about a particular content that was created by syria.theyh isis in post a picture of themselves in front of a particular local headquarters. the air force was able to take that and match that with a location and initiate a strike on that target within 22 hours. we don't have boots on the ground in syria. a couple of weeks ago, the united states said we will expand our on the ground operation 250 special operations forces guys. we don't have eyes there in the same way we would in a place where we have a huge infantry presence.
4:00 am
the stuff some of that ices creates and puts into social media to understand what they are doing and where and how in order to have a very tactical effect on the ground. host: we will take as many calls as we can. of can check out the work patrick tucker at defense one.com. next up is cleveland, georgia, line for independents. caller: good morning. at the risk of being a wet blanket, i think this thing is a double-edged sword. we have a fair amount of war criminals in our country. we are not going to ever bring them to account so putting their information on the screen and whatnot, might be a check or balance with some of the stuff going on. there is no chance in hell we will get them in court.
4:01 am
start thinkingll clearer before they go acting stupid around here. when he something to change. have a good morning. host: anything you want to follow up with? when peopleow that from the united states go to syria, they become part of an fbi watch list. the fbi is reassuring the public they have a handle on this. the comings and goings say something about you and this is an important law enforcement tool. debate about the specificity of her medications is that we volunteer location data that is totally legal and public and can speak to how the vast majority of us are. it is useful for law enforcement. look at how this debate
4:02 am
will change, i think the specificities of whether it's able to break encryption will fall by the wayside as we begin to understand how to use all the other data we create in a way and is constitutional creates a broader spectrum of probability that is useful for law enforcement. i am being optimistic and i look at the potential of a data in the next two years and i see that is something that will making defective technology into something that people don't notice. host: bayshore, new york is next on our independent line. is isis atd morning, real thing question mark it boggles my mind that people can be allowed to walk around.
4:03 am
i got a file for a permit to open a business in this country. if i don't do that, they will throw me in jail. i have to listen to people talk about federal people watching them. there was a gun shop, a shooting range in my negative the woods years ago. these towel heads were shooting automatic weapons. host: we will just move on. we will stick to a productive conversation talking about technology and the ices use of technology. john is up next from farmingdale, new york, line for democrats. caller: good morning. is i see fear mongering going on. the media is pushing fear mongering. this is the united states of america and the land of the free and home of the brave.
4:04 am
the organization is being funded. where would get they get the equipment? so whyry is funding them do we find out who was funding them and take care of business? it blows my mind and it's heartbreaking. people say we don't want let the terrorists win. they are winning because everyone is in a panic and everyone is scared and locked down. they will watch communications? they are winning. --e one more thing to add the police presence -- if a person is willing to die with a suicide belt, to see a police officer standing there with an automatic weapon, the person has no fear, they will do it anyway. a firearm is not going to determine them. host: the first part of the
4:05 am
question is to follow the money. how is technology being used to better follow the money? guest: we understand a lot about the ices finances i --sis finances. it's pretty limited but you can follow it easily. most of their resources come from black market oil sales which is an active area of investigation and something we can follow. to --is some question as that will be a pretty consistent and stable source of funding for them. another source of funding that has dried up is robbing banks in places they took over. if you run out of money. the most recent issue of their online magazine has some call to raise funds. there is a question whether they are having financial difficulty.
4:06 am
raising money through private is something where they are employing a lot of tactics. that is definitely a source of active investigation there is question as to how effective the isis online money raising has been lately. at the same time, they are very well-funded and without directly targeting oil and logistics which we have begun to do, it d theme hard to de-fun because they are sitting on huge and active oilfields. host: nelson is online for independent in miami, florida. morning, i would technology, do
4:07 am
you know who is selling the weapons to isis? wars are made of two things, funding and military who sold to them. have you reach that place where you can find that out? host: the center for conflict armament research center -- is one. a organization that is run out of scott -- scotland yard that is used to track arms of the floor around the world. things coming out of eastern europe are difficult to track. of hoarseness in terms of weapons moving in and out. we know a lot of the stuff was left behind by the united states for the iraqi security forces. there is some questions as to whether or not they are beginning to run out of equipment. efforts to write
4:08 am
down serial numbers of different arms and see with a show on the battlefield, you are basically asking a very small handful of people to do an incredibly difficult forensic intelligence job that is very dangerous. this is something we could absolutely wrap up with better funding. it is a huge problem. the previous caller question about suicide belt and how to -- those -- how to fort thwart those. one of the interesting things i run about the last couple of weeks was a new system developed by the joint improvised explosive threat agency. using a combination of infrared and radiation scanning, it can actually see a suicide belt as far away as 100 meters. we talk about how we will have an effect on a situation by mass surveillance for limited
4:09 am
-- or limited surveillance or airstrikes, we are leaving aside the fact that we are creating everyday technology that keeps us safer in a way that does not make headlines. host: is that something that works through buildings? does it necessarily have to be eye to eye?i -- guest: there is aching ability that is emerging -- there is a capability that is emerging that they could implement. you can actually see the different materials. with enough funding, this becomes something like a game changer. every day, researchers around the world are creating things that could make us safer but we don't hear about them. if you are worried about this stuff, there is a lot of reason to be helpful. host: question from twitter.
4:10 am
the group of anonymous has pledged to interfere with isis' ability to communicate. can they break communication? guest: anonymous is an online collective of individuals that are unified around a broad agenda against what they see as corporate abuses and also asinst what they see overreaching government surveillance. , andare all over the world they have various levels of expertise. right now, their efforts against isis have been limited primarily sitesrming isis related with traffic to knock those sites off-line and limiting their ability to disseminate propaganda. there is also evidence they were able to release private and personal information related to some people that are affiliated
4:11 am
with isis. that is something called doxing. it is a volunteer army. they are going to be somewhat limited, but there is some controversy as to whether or not this is the sort of thing we should be encouraging. operate -- it's an enormous collective of different people. that yelp -- the legality of some of the activities of some people associated with the group is questionable depending on where you are talking about. broadly different people that otherwise have nothing in common are working together to solve a very complex problem that is isis. it is rare that you would see iran, russia, anonymous, the u.s., all responding to a single problem.
4:12 am
host:
4:13 am
4:14 am
4:15 am
4:16 am
>> ladies and gentlemen, staff, i guess, i am glad to see all of you here this afternoon. i am provost for northern virginia community college alexandria campus, and it is my pleasure of all things to welcome you here this afternoon to a town hall with secretary of treasury.
4:17 am
one of the great assets for alexandria campus is the location inside the capitol beltway and the proximity to washington dc. because of that location we have had the good fortune to be the host for a number of dignitaries state, federal, and international who have held forums to talk about matters of interest to the general public. today's activities and the townhall is one such event. in order to move us to that particular.the president of northern virginia community college who will introduce our speaker and outline the program. >> thank you, sir. >> good afternoon.
4:18 am
honored to have a special guest a very distinguished public service career and prior to becoming our 76 secretary of treasury as chief of staff for the white house, director of omb and even as higher education with new york university. your here among friends and we are excited to have you and is here today to talk with our students about proposed changes in our students often have opinions and questions come as you will find out. excited to share thoughts and ask questions. thank you for being in northern virginia community college. >> well, thanks. >> thank you very much. thanks to all of you for being here today. let me start to explain why i am here over the last few
4:19 am
years we have been working on modernizing currency. really are currency and bills. pensively for security reasons but not just the $10 bill. the whole family. ultimately everything but the $1 bill.
4:20 am
this could be an opportunity to start a conversation in the country about what we should put on our currency if we want to reflect on an important topic. the topic that we chose was democracy. now, it happens that when this next bill is unveiled formally in the year 2020. that is the 100th anniversary of women's suffrage, getting the right to vote. as we looked at this and ii was briefed on this probably two or three years ago for the 1st time i learned it was 100 years ago that we had a woman,, over 100 years ago, last time we had a woman on our currency was washington on the other side of george washington. and the two things that we decided as we went through this redesign was in addition to security which will always come 1st we
4:21 am
want this new family of bills to represent the idea of democracy and putting the image of a woman ona woman on our currency for the 1st time in over 100 years to reflect on the contribution that women have made to building our democracy and the history of our country. and there has been a lot of discussion. only announce this undertaking website and social media responses of one kind or another range from handwritten letters and everything in between. i am hoping i can use the next period of time for me to hear from you to get your ideas about what it is that is important in terms of the images, themes and if you
4:22 am
have ideas in terms of what line you would like to see on our currency i would like to get your ideas on that as well. this is an exciting project. our moneyproject. our money is more than just something we do business with. our money is actually the back part of the global economy. when you go to institutions what they most recognize is the us dollar. and it is a reflection of who we are which is why it is so important that we get this right, listen and think hard and we have been in between everything else we have been doing over the past two years working hard on this over the last six months unhappy to answer
4:23 am
questions if you have them. show of hands. >> don't be shy. >> i think economics and tell my students before you do anything collect the data. the decision. >> well, there is a committee it works a lot of issues. i will give the exact components. it has to do with how much it is used, how often it is counterfeited, how difficult the design is or features on
4:24 am
the bill are: that is the trigger event on the next bill to be redesigned. over time we redesign all bills. it is not necessarily the bill that was the oldest to be designed because if you look at the hundred dollar bill or $20 bill they have more security features. it is a complicated set of factors that are examined, and it is examined by technical experts who spend their entire careers working on making sure currency is safe and secure. >> the redesign. over and above the cost of the redesign how much money will it cost to change? >> i am not sure that i can
4:25 am
break out what the cost of the changes because anytime you put a new piece of currency and circulation the whole system has to be built up for that purpose. the most expensive part of producing our currency is putting the security features on. without aa doubt the most expensive part will be the r&d and the production of security features that range from things you can see the things that you cannot see. you can feel the printing, the intaglio printing. that was enough to make it hard to counterfeit. we now have things in the paper on the surface, some of them that have a high tech components of them. and that is where the real expenses. the actual images and engraving that is not going to add materially to the cost.
4:26 am
the security features are quite expensive, we need to do that. increasingly incorporating security features in the place where currency is something that people can just count on being very difficult to counterfeit. >> if we are talking about the $10 bill does it mean removing alexander hamilton from it are putting some other feature on the other side? >> we have not said exactly what the final design will be. from the momentfrom the moment we made the announcement that we were undertaking this project, we will continue to honor alexander hamilton some something that has been important from the beginning of the project is that the man with the single largest contribution, building our economic system and in many ways our system of government will continue to be honored and currency.
4:27 am
the idea of having the image of a woman on our currency is something that is more than just a kind of passing interest. it has to do with recognizing that women have played a part in building this country hopefully that will come out of this review giving us the ability to tell more stories. and as i say will start with the $10 bill and then there will be additional things to come on other denominations as they come out.
4:28 am
i would say that this is an opportunity here about what kinds of images people in this room think would tell the story of democracy, and who will work on the best way to incorporate that on the front end other side of the bill. >> why do you know that i use coin? >> i feel like durability, and lasts longer than paper. >> we have dollar coins in circulation, and they have turned out not to be as popular with people as paper currency. so the attempts to reuse more coins is something that over time probably will catch on but has not caught on yet.
4:29 am
the thing that i found interesting as we have gone through the analysis behind how much currency we need in an economy that is increasingly relying on online purchases and swiping cards, the interesting thing i learned and i think is why this is not just a decision for today would probably a long-term decision, even though the amount of transactions being done without currency has grown rapidly over the economy is growing more rapidly, and the amount of currency in circulation is growing even though there are other ways that people are transacting business. there is more money in circulation now with the advent of online purchasing and the extensive use of credit cards and debit cards
4:30 am
, and it means that paper currency will be with us for a long time. theythey kinds of issues that we are grappling with as we talk about designing currency, i think, are going to be, you know, still something that we see on our currency ten, 20, 30 years from now. so it is why it is so important to us as we make a decision to here ideas that come from the broad public and people like you. >> i have more general questions. what do you think is the most important issue facing our global monetary system today? >> i think that the, if you look at the global economy,
4:31 am
what their global economy needs more of his demand, it needs more total activity. and in the aftermath of the recession we have used an awful lot of policy levers in the united states, fiscal policy, monitor policy, rewritten our financial regulatory laws, that structural reform, and the united states is not outperforming other economies. what i tell counterparts around the world is you need to use all of the leverage. you cannot rely extensively on anyone. that is the challenge that i see kind of singularly. there is an awful lot. >> i like the idea of using the $10 bill to express the idea of democracy.
4:32 am
alexander hamilton, pretty much incompatible. he was opposed to democracy. what about the $10 bill now? what about putting the image on one side and highlighting the fact that they were there as well so that you could have them in the forefront? the continental congress of the declaration of independence, thomas jefferson, equality on one side and writes on the other? >> we are looking, a lot of suggestions that relate to suffrage. and you have certainly picked off some of the individuals who played a key role in that. thomas jefferson is already on the $2 bill, so he has
4:33 am
his own piece of currency. but those are interesting ideas. thank you. >> a question about bit coin. it seemed like for a while people were getting excited about digital currency. maybe in the future, having a more globalized type of currency. >> if you look at the history of payment systems they usually come about through changes that seem disruptive or a littlea little bit kind of off of the beaten path at the beginning. you know, even money was introduced at a time when people were using things of
4:34 am
value and money was an abstract representation. so we must be open-minded about what innovation looks like because no 1100 years ago could have imagined a system that would be independent upon things like electronic transfers and credit cards and debit cards as we have today. i am not sure what the innovations that will drive the transaction flows in the future. one of the things about bit coin, different than a lot of other payment systems we have is it is designed to be anonymous. things that are designed to be anonymous have attributes that are not dissimilar from cash economies. hard to follow the flow. sometimes it is easier to use cash for illicit purposes and things that would go through a formal
4:35 am
banking system. so the treasury as we look at things like bit coin, how to overlay all of the things that we do to make sure that if there are things that are illegal for illicit going on with cash or currency we have the ability to look into the system in the same way. it is challenging because it is a different medium, but those are the kinds of questions. the preferred payments into the future to be worked out through the marketplace of individual choice which has made a lot of decisions over the last hundred years that have produced a range of ways to ease commerce, make it both more convenient and cheaper to do business, and i suspect if we were meeting here 20 years from today there would be things that
4:36 am
not even bit coin is looking at.at. someone over there had a hand up a minute ago. >> i would like to see a woman representing this country. >> that is an interesting idea. there is always a challenge between very recognizable images that tell stories that are well known and those symbolic a larger groups. it is an interesting suggestion. thank you. >> overall employment. i want to know how they are deciding.
4:37 am
is it nationwide? >> the leadtime for designing currency as long. we will be making a decision in the coming weeks on the basic shape of the design. i am looking forward to announcing at some point quite soon where we end up in terms of the design of the currency. there has been a long process to turn that into something coming off of the printing presses and going into circulation command you need -- >> a form that can be mass-produced and that is why there is a bit of a gap between the initial decision, the unveiling of the piece of currency itself and the mass production of it. the schedule is one for
4:38 am
those of us who are impatient and make decisions and implement them you have to get accustomed, but to go back to the 1st purpose of the redesign it makes a lot of sense because the piece that takes the most time is designing and producing this features. >> there has been a recent movement lately to abolish the use of opinion circulation and there was a peace talking about that same issue. there is nothing that you can make it out of. happening during your tender -- tenure. >> the value of the penny has gotten smaller and
4:39 am
smaller. the question of when and how is something we are looking at. it has been under review for quite a long time. so it is a question that we do have to ask because you have to make sure that the currency reflects with the needs of commerce are in the value of the currency. >> have you thought about putting multiple women on the -- >> we have thought about it, and one of the options is,
4:40 am
like, likely have different corridors you could have different images on different versions of the $2 bill, $5 bill, $10 bill. it is something that people either really like a really hate and it is something that some people think is confusing, not being able to easily recognize paper currency. ..
4:41 am
to carry images on our currency which is why using the bill to tell more of the story, which i think is the way even before you get to the question of having multiple bills, to reflect a depth and breadth of our history and in this case who has contributed to democracy. but we haven't made a final decision but is certainly a possibility. yes, in the back. >> i think if we have to did -- you would consider her devoting
4:42 am
all of her life to the college. [inaudible] >> thank you. >> two parts. is there a shortlist being considered on the 10-dollar bill and is the first female secretary of treasure being considered on that list? >> you know, there are a lot of names that have come up both within our internal review and public comment. i will say there is a lot of the same names keep getting recommended many many times in different places so while it's not a shortlist there are some
4:43 am
names that it got more attention than others. and we are still looking at a range of options. there are questions about what part of our history you want to tell and it's why is i say we are looking at ways to have a larger view of how many stories we can put on our currency to capture more of the richness of our history. so the answer to your question is there are still quite a few names of possible candidates. >> are you seriously considering jack kennedy or harriet tubman?
4:44 am
>> i'm not going to comment on specific people we are considering. again i can say that there have been a lot of people who have spoken in particular harriet tubman as a potential person to be on our currency. as she's certainly not the only one we have heard a lot of support for. the idea from my perspective it should be a compelling story where through the life work of the person, it shows an independent contribution to building the ideal and reality of democracy in our country and there are quite of few names that meet that definition. the fact that it's been over 100 years since a woman has been on our currency doesn't mean there
4:45 am
aren't a lot of candidates. >> i'm sure abigail adams may have come up many times but my real question is -- can they be alive or do they have to have passed? >> that is actually one restriction. underlie you can't put the image of a living person on our currency so the statutory framework that we work in is the dollar bill is set. congress said it's going to stay the way it is and you can't put the image of a living person on our currency. when we said that the theme of democracy was going to be there broad criteria for inclusion and when we said we were going to use the image of a woman, that kind of defined the universe and
4:46 am
that isn't limited to just one or two people. that is why we have gone through this process. the question of what period of our history is something that we have heard a lot of comments on. some people have said we should go back to the founding era. they said you should come to a more modern period to reflect the ongoing contribution in history and obviously in between depending on how you measure it. >> people ask questions about the changes that people have wanted in currency for a long time like getting rid of the penny or going to a higher point
4:47 am
of nominations and things like that. oftentimes it's easier in society at -- societal level to get young people to make change. when you're dealing with currency is there a behavior you would like to see younger people take on that stubborn older people are less inclined to do. >> one of the things, this is isn't exactly currency but i think to use a phrase cyber hygiene is something that we need to just be much better at. because of the amount of business we do, both commercial business but also personal business through the internet puts a burden on each of us to take precautions to make sure that we are being careful with
4:48 am
how we log on, whether we use the safety precautions that actually can do a lot to reduce the risk of somebody either hacking into or stealing your information. and, given the nature of technology, those issues have become more are found, not less profound overtime because of proliferation in cyberspace will only grow. on the currency issue, a few minutes ago ago i addressed the bitcoin question which is kind of where currency and cyberspace have met and that does present challenges in terms of just making sure that there is appropriate ability to track
4:49 am
transactions that might not be appropriate or legal, but you now on a personal level, i think all of us value our privacy and we certainly don't want anybody getting access to our financial accounts. we each have the responsibility to take the precautions we can and i suspect young people are probably better at that than others, but the rest of us are going to have to catch up. >> someone who has not asked. >> on the role of counterfeiting in our current climate around the world that's obviously a national issue. if you could talk about the role
4:50 am
that in terms of what's going on right now the threats from foreign governments or terrorist organizations? >> counterfeiting is one kind of the threat of funding either illicit activity or a terrorist organization but legal cash can be used for that purpose as well. that's why our ability, if you try to take a lot of cash out of the bank it sends up an alert and there's a record of that and it's appropriately noted by the bank and bank regulators. you know, the question about being able to see transactions through electronic means raises the same kind of issue. you don't want to see money transferred to terrorist organizations anonymously. on the other hand you don't want
4:51 am
to have your privacy violated in the process. i think our bank secrecy act protections would strike that balance in the current system where i don't think any of us feel particularly violated with the idea that you take it to the bank to bank notices. one of the risks in the modern world and i talked to my directional colleagues about this, there's a growing recognition tens of thousands or millions of dollars to acquire the means to do a fair amount of harm. weapons are not a bad expensive on the international market, so one of the things that i talked talk to my colleagues about around the world is how do you get visibility into those kinds of transactions and it's not easy.
4:52 am
it's not easy but is not just a question of counterfeiting. it's why we need to have appropriate levels of information exchanged by national authorities and appropriate visibility into financial transactions. but when the amount of money are relatively small to acquire a weapon, you just make the ability to stop the flow of money that much harder. we have a whole unit of treasury department that works on terrorism and threat financing and it's probably the most sophisticated unit of that kind in the world. and the events over the last couple of weeks just underscore how important it is to get even better at it. in the back.
4:53 am
>> sacajawea was on a coin. >> is that the cecily climbed? >> paper currency. susan b. anthony is on the dollar coin but on paper money the last image was martha washington in the 19th century. in the back over there. >> i have dealt with a lot of counterfeit money in retail and i know with a 100-dollar bills there have been marks that you can look at to basically tell if it's counterfeit but on the 10-dollar bill there is on the mark so is that going to be the
4:54 am
same markets? >> i can't tell you what the security features will be but you just put your finger on why the 10-dollar bill is next. has less security features in the 10,000 -- 10-dollar bill. and in terms of the number of transactions and the number of bills and the number of exposures to counterfeiting their next bill we need to work on is the 10-dollar bill. the 100-dollar bill is our highest technology bill and it has the whole different feel to it. i don't feel that many of them myself. i have more 10-dollar bills. >> you are in good company. >> i'm just curious on where does most of the counterfeit
4:55 am
currency come from? is it mostly small individual players or are there large organization counterfeiting on a large-scale? >> i'm not going to get too specific about where the counterfeiting goes on but it's not just domestic, it's international and some of it is pretty sophisticated. i think if you are doing it on a small scale it would be harder to have it look authentic. there are some pretty sophisticated actors out there which is why we keep trying to stay a step ahead of them. we put features on that they may not understand. we put features on that are hard to produce. someone asked about the cost. it's more expensive and if you just had a printing press that was putting ink of paper is a lot cheaper than putting in no
4:56 am
holograms and ribbons and threads and electronic things so if you think of the technology that it takes to make our money safe as an r&d project that's closer to write than if you think about a letterpress. modern money is really a combination of renting and technology and there are very sophisticated counterfeiters around the world. you have to try to stay a step ahead of them. the gentleman in the middle, right over there. >> you speak of democracy but wouldn't it be better to put in the public array of options? >> we have actually opened this process to the public more than
4:57 am
any decision of currency ever has been open before. you have to have some parameters for discussion in order to get information that you can make a decision with. some of the suggestions we have gotten would suggest that it covers most american history in a lot of people's minds. to me, what democracy means is the right we all have to have a voice in the right we all have to participate in government and the right we all have to live in a country where our laws are made by elected officials and that covers a pretty broad span of american history. there are a lot of people and there are a lot of symbols. in addition to images of people are our currency has traditionally reflected symbols as well so freedom was the theme for the last round of currency.
4:58 am
images like the liberty bell were represented on our currency. it's not just about the face of one person. it's about images, scenes, documents, physical things, symbols and we have gotten literally thousands, over 1.5 million responses and numbers of suggestions that cover all of the possible images and names that one could think of. ultimately you have to make a decision for each piece of currency, for what image, what person, what scene, what group of people and that's the process we are completing over these next coming weeks. >> one last plug.
4:59 am
>> what's the best way for us to -- before the weeks are over? >> you can write us at the new 10 at treasury.gov and that is one way. there is also a web site where you can logon and social media. we have gotten ideas through all of the media and every night it take, notebook that has a section in it where -- i wouldn't say everything. i couldn't read over 1 million individual entries but by the representation that reflects everything that we have been getting in, so this is an open process and we are looking forward to hearing from you and i look forward to having this conversation continue until we make a decision and even after.
5:00 am
thank you very much. [applause] i want to thank our nova students and faculty for taking your time to give your contributions and thoughts and ideas in particular they want to thank our secretary of treasury for giving your time to be here at northern virginia committed to college. we are proud that you are today and thank you for being with us. if you look give him a chance to exit when we will exit afterwards. thank you secretary again.
5:01 am
5:02 am
5:03 am
5:04 am
5:05 am
5:06 am
5:07 am
5:08 am
5:09 am
5:10 am
5:11 am
5:12 am
5:13 am
5:14 am
5:15 am
5:16 am
5:17 am
5:18 am
5:19 am
5:20 am
5:21 am
5:22 am
5:23 am
5:24 am
5:25 am
5:26 am
5:27 am
5:28 am
5:29 am
5:30 am
5:31 am
5:32 am
5:33 am
5:34 am
5:35 am
5:36 am
5:37 am
5:38 am
5:39 am
5:40 am
5:41 am
5:42 am
5:43 am
5:44 am
5:45 am
5:46 am
5:47 am
5:48 am
5:49 am
5:50 am
5:51 am
5:52 am
5:53 am
5:54 am
5:55 am
5:56 am
5:57 am
5:58 am
5:59 am
6:00 am
6:01 am
6:02 am
6:03 am
6:04 am
6:05 am
6:06 am
6:07 am
6:08 am
6:09 am
6:10 am
6:11 am
6:12 am
6:13 am
6:14 am
6:15 am
6:16 am
6:17 am
6:18 am
6:19 am
6:20 am
6:21 am
6:22 am
6:23 am
6:24 am
6:25 am
6:26 am
6:27 am
6:28 am
6:29 am
6:30 am
6:31 am
6:32 am
. . . . . .
6:33 am
6:34 am
6:35 am
6:36 am
6:37 am
6:38 am
6:39 am
6:40 am
6:41 am
6:42 am
rue been uik
6:43 am
6:44 am
6:45 am
6:46 am
6:47 am
6:48 am
6:49 am
6:50 am
6:51 am
6:52 am
6:53 am
6:54 am
6:55 am
6:56 am
6:57 am
6:58 am
6:59 am
7:00 am
>> and i'll tell you, if people read that, you would know everything the general public needs to know about climate. i would know more than 95% of the people. if that's nod good enough the world society put out a 30-page written at 12th grade level. so there's -- it's not like oh, my god. i have to be michael man. no. there's literally the probably the amount of time that, you know, you would sort of spend on two commutes you would read enough to have a working knowledge of climate.
7:01 am
that's all. i'm not trying to like troll people to get master's degrees in science or something like that. what can you do? our kind of choices were you can have a really nice house that was 6 or 7 miles away from the university or drive away or we could have a smaller older house within walking to my office, and that's what we chose, we've upgraded the windows, we found a couple of pieces which was the pennsylvania rural style of architecture. there was no insilation.
7:02 am
they seem to be grumpy about that. we may not do that, you know. but there are things you can do when you buy your next car, you know, think about the gas mileage. i'm not saying that you have to have a bicycle and get rid of whatever. if you're working on a farm, you probably need a pickup. that's fair. if all you're doing is taking your kids to the hockey game and soccer game and you're in jacksonville, florida where it never snows, maybe you don't need a pickup or suv. so just, you know, this is not live in a cave and live a haired
7:03 am
shirt. we as americans, we all -- we waste about a third of our energy, a third of our food, a third of our water, roughly. so, you know, i just try to think of, okay, what little things can i do that sort of knock that down. am i perfect? no way, i would be the last person to say i'm perfect but we work on that. it's kind of for my science friends. we don't do a good job of monitoring the earth to understand in a consistent sort of time system's way. the m is monitoring. that's just supporting nasa and noa and the a is advocacy. and the way i look at this is whenever you, and i use the
7:04 am
broad, you, have an opportunity to engage with elected officials really at any level from federal on down, i mean, my question is sir or ma'am, what are you doing to stabilize the climate. so that's not do you support revenue neutral carbon tax. it's like dating 1 -- 101. even if you don't get a thoughtful answer, what you get is some where in that back of that politician's brain, a constituent cared enough to ask about this. congress probably won't lead on this issue but they will follow the voters because they want to get reelected. right now, i hate to say it, right now this issue doesn't really register. there's a few people really
7:05 am
committed. there's a few people think it's a b, you know what. it's like washing the dish pan washed around. it's really thin. it really dpeendz. -- friends. >> we need to have enough advocacy so that they feel he or she feels like i'm not going to get fired by the voters if i stick my hand up and say, you know, we need to look at this thing. in 2010 he said, you know, he can quote the bible, he said, you know, maybe these guys aren't crazy. maybe they're not crazy, maybe we should at least figure out what it is they're saying and
7:06 am
basically the voters, you know, gave them a blindfold and a cigarette and they shot him in the next primary. now he's a climate hero that's out of a job or at least out of congress. all the other people on the senate -- on the right, on the republican said, i don't want to be bob, that wasn't any fun. we are the ones who are ultimately provide that advocacy. we know this is super super important in the long-term. but it's super super super , sut to give congress enough cover so that they can take those oaths and not get fired by the lek --
7:07 am
electorate. yes, ma'am. >> hi, i was just wondering what governmental policy you would like to see from the united states. [laughter] >> well, the first thing to know is i probably wouldn't get elected as dogcatcher, so it's not going to matter what that is. i would at least explore and i don't do -- i don't do the detail policy so i probably should not even say anything, but i will. you know, i would explore some of the ideas that places or organizations like citizens climate lobby has, the so-called neutral carbon tax and if you really construct it so that it's revenue neutral, can you convince folks that think already that our government is too big or certainly should not
7:08 am
be bigger, that that money, in fact, goes back to people who need help with energy but at the same time probably remove sub said -- subsidies for fossil fuels and coal and you price, you know, have some sort of fair price for the kind of damage that the carbon pollution is doing. we are sort of being dumping the trash. you see the movies and people dumping the trash out their doorstep. that's kind of what we've been doing. so we haven't been picking up the trash for 150 years. a little factoid every man, wam and child in america generates about 120 pounds of carbon
7:09 am
dioxide pollution. that's the kind of number. that's a lot. now, we can't see or touch it, we don't really see it that way but it's a lot and -- and it does -- it has been harming the ecosystems and, again, why do i care about ecosystems because somebody brought it up. if the bad goes away, it's bad, if it's people that go away, that's not quite as bad unless you are a person. that's real harm to the things that sustain us, fresh water, the ability to have productive agricultural, the ability to have our cities and centers of commerces in places that we know
7:10 am
aren't going to get flooded out by the ocean. all those things. i'm actually writing something right now. hopefully it'll be published next week, you know, we are paying a carbon tax today. those $14.6 million in levies, $60 billion for sandy, that's kind of a carbon tax that we are paying today. the question is are we going to pay a carbon tax that we vote on or are we just going to keep paying carbon taxes after bad things happen and it's after the fact and we know we are going to do it. we are not going to talk away from new york city, we are not going to walk away from los angeles or napa, california, new orleans or miami. we are going to pay, we are going to pay. we can either decide how we are going to pay or we can just be told how to pay after the fact, but i would start with that. it may not be the best policy
7:11 am
and but i would start the discussion with that. >> sir, my question is to reducing fossil fuel consumption. my question is do we have a viable alternative because other than using fossil fuel we use it for plastics and so many other things. is there a way we can have a viable alternative? >> let me see, do i have the slide in this deck -- it'll be in the next one. what, i think, we look at is a couple of things. a lot of the renewables are starting to become competitive just on price. now, again, how much of that is
7:12 am
susidies and it's hard to disentangle all of that. by themselves are being closed. i would -- this gets back to your question, ma'am, if i were king for a day, which i will never be, but if you look at how the u.s. over the last 50 or 60 years and we all have a problem and we all say we have a problem, we tend to invest our research and development pretty heavily to try to fix that problem. so there is a graph, i'm afraid i don't have it in this deck, but maintained by the american association advancement of science, it's the nondefense research and development, i know it sounds geeky and all that kind of stuff, what it is, it's kind of color coded by what it is. you can see to the year or day when president kennedy said we are going to go to the moon and you watch the u.s. investment go like this and then go like this. you can see in 1973 oil shock
7:13 am
that believe it or not we've got -- we put a lot more money into investing in energy but then it all kind of went away. so we have a lot of rhetoric in the president's second term. we have the congress who hasn't bought into this by and large, when you look at the money, when you look at the budgets on research and development we really haven't done much. we've done a little but nothing that sort of aligns to what this country has done in the past when we say we've got a problem and we need to fix something. and i think that's going to be another way to drive the costs down and we've seen this time and time again. you know, if you invest heavily by in large, you can drive these costs down and you can get probably solutions that we're not even thinking of. the military has done this time and time again. we all know the stories. gps, the internet. all that kind of stuff.
7:14 am
but we are not going to do that at 2 or 300 million a year. we're just not going to get there. go ahead. time for the bonus rounds here. >> so i found it interesting that we were talking about how climate change creates conflicts globally, when it is a global fen only no, -- phenomena, an ie that affects everyone on earth, i think it's kind of hard for me to say, but i'm thinking there should be a synergistic and we get everybody reduced by a little bit and those are all great, i feel like this is such a global crisis that we need to be talking to other countries as well. so what kind of policies should we be or stands should we be
7:15 am
taking. i know we have global conferences in change but those are rather ineffective. i don't know if you have any other suggestions or how can rereally unit countries to fight to fight this issue? >> yeah, i mean, you're absolutely right. when you oh take a look at where the carbon pollution is coming from, in the u.s. is now number two, we are not even the single largest country. now per capita we are the single largest country, overall china has surpassed us. this is something, you know, we talked about evidence, this is a belief, i don't have much evidence but america can lead the world in many, many things, and the world in large cases does still look to american leadership, so yeah, i was talking about, you know, whether we invest tall way down to small-scale actions and getting out and supporting congress, we look like we have a unified
7:16 am
position for the outside world. they're serious now. that, i think, then puts our negotiators and our senior politicians in a much, much stronger and we are serious. if you want to set, you know, big hairy gold, how, let's say year 2110, power an average of what a european has today but how do you go figure out and it's not building of noncarbon is how you store the energy.
7:17 am
i think it start at home can credibility because otherwise it's talk, talk, but you guys aren't doing anything. but once you have that, i mean, i would use american leadership and maybe that sounds corny or not but i do believe that america can still lead but we have to have credibility to do that and tell everybody else that they should be fixing this problem. how are we doing? okay. any -- one last question? any last questions? sir. >> i appreciated nathan fox's question because that brings us back that i wanted to ask a couple of minutes ago. that is it seems to me that climate change is a scientific problem, political problem, economic problem, to me it's also a moral problem. it's a moral problem for the
7:18 am
following reason, if boston or miami or houston faced rising sea level, we have the technology and the money to respond, just as my adopted country of the netherlands but i was not fearing for my life. a number of countries around the world that are going to be severely threatened, i think, by rising sea levels have neither the technology, nor the money to resist, bangladesh, so one piece i would appreciate your comment on would be the moral dimension of climate change. >> yeah, it's a wonderful comment there and the reason i put this slide up is i think we've seen and i believe with good news very intentionally is -- is we have seen in the last couple of years more and more
7:19 am
different groups from their perspective including the moral perspective. so i have something -- i work with this group called catholic climate covenant. a layperson but superguy that runs this. pope had comeout. i was in a panel with a couple of bishops talking about that. i would do the science security thing. this is what the pope means here. it's a moral issue if you're a follower of catholic teachings. same thick -- thing with evangelicals. i'm doing a panel with some jewish organizations in philadelphia here in about two months. so what -- what i've seen and that moral component or religious component. let's say that's at 12:00 o'clock, you could sort of go around.
7:20 am
the insurance guys for insurance reasons are doing it, another moral component. it's kind of a cookie symbol i use by the divestment of fossil fuels from universities, you know, harvard did that. the president of harvard, in my personal opinion was condecending. they're going to keep pushing on that. i talk about the security aspect fine, you don't believe all my dat e. go watch chasing ice. it's pretty impressive. i do have my polar bear, we have to know the price, we've got to know this. i think it's very useful to have
7:21 am
all of these coming, talking to their stakeholders with credibility but we're all coming to the same answer of we have to deal with this, short-term we are going to have to adapt, long-term we have to get ourselves off carbon because otherwise the consequences, i mean, i think i was saying at lunch, the earth will be fine by the ecosystems may not make it, but we will make it. okay. -- is that it? all right. thank you very much. i appreciate it. thank you. [applause] >> french president françois hollande visits the u.s. today. he'll meet with president obama at the white house to discuss the recent terrorist attacks and the strategy for combating isis. the two are expected to hold a joint news conference after their meeting in the oval. you can watch it live.
7:22 am
in the afternoon we will have comments republican govern chris christie, that's part of our road to the white house coverage and we'll be live at 12:30 eastern here on c-span2. >> you'll find the candidates, speeches and debates and most importantly your questions. we will take the coverage into classrooms across the country with student cam contest. follow c-span student cam contest and road to the the white house coverage 2016 on tv, radio and online at c-span.org. ♪
7:23 am
>> last week the health and human services department hosted a forum on innovation within the pharmaceutical industry. [applause] >> good morning, everyone, welcome to this very important department of health and human services and pharmaceutical forum. today we really is a unique and important opportunity for shake holders to discuss the many opportunities as well as challenges that we face with respect to prescription drugs and stakeholders we all do, in fact, have stake in this discussion, as patients today or the caregivers of patients, we know that we want today and
7:24 am
tomorrow effective treatments for our loved ones. we know that we want a dynamic and innovative biopharmaceutical sector to create jobs, and as taxpayers as well as people covered by health insurance, we know we want the costs to be affordable and sustainable. all of these perspectives and more will be represented today. before we get started, i have just a few housekeeping items to cover. first of all, we do expect a full room today with every seat taken up by a human being, not by a briefcase or backpack, so, please, everybody move to the center of the room if you can. fill in each seats and make rooms for otherwise would be left stand standing. thank you for doing that. next, even though the commercials at southwest
7:25 am
airlines they tell you you are free to move about the country, you're unfortunately not free to move around this building today. please if you need the restrooms or need to get to the cafeteria and ask for an escort from one of the hhs personnel that have volunteered to provide companionship as need being. as a reminder, mute telephones, recordingson. now i have the great pleasure of welcoming our first speaker. the the the honorable sylvia burwell. welcome. [applause]
7:26 am
>> thank you for facilitating our discussion. i also want to thank everyone for joining us today. the consumers, health care professionals, manufacturers, government representatives that are joined us today. it's a very diverse group of stakeholders and each crucial of what a complex conversation we are going to have today. as we look at prescription drugs, we can see both possibilityies and challenges. we have opportunity to find new medicines, therapies and tours. we have the chance to help prevent many more. we can contribute to innovation in our economy, at the same time, when medical technology advances we must con front certain issues of access,
7:27 am
quality and affordability, hepatitis c, for example, affects around 3 million people in the u.s. and claims more lives than aids. new drugs have revolutionized treatments and improved our cure rates. treatments, however, can cost more than a $100,000 and that's an issue for both patients in the organizations and governments that serve them. since more than three out of four infected adults are baby boomers, it has cost one of the main cost drivers of medicaid program. recognizing that we need both access and affordability, we recently issued a notice to all 50 states medicaid directors to remind them of their obligation to cover these treatments based on medical evidence as well as the tools they have to manage. we also sent letters to drug manufacturers requesting information on pricing
7:28 am
arrangements and inside on how we can encourage the same ability in terms of pricing and increasing access to these drugs. new medical breakthroughs can change lives but we must make sure they're available to those who need them. for the sake of patients, healthcare system and economy we must simultaneously support innovation, access and affordability. today we know that too many americans struggle to avoid the medications they need. a recent survey showed that almost a quarter of americans have skipped filling a prescription over the last year. cost for medicines are up and that's even for pronounced in specialty drugs. in fact, about 65% of spending on new drugs over the last two years was for specialty drugs. also recently seen price increasing for drugs that are not new.
7:29 am
nationwide spending on specialty drugs was 87 billion and that's roughly 25% of the total drug spending, that's also a little more than 3% of national health spending. but it's been estimated that it could quadruple by 2020 reaching about $400 billion, that would be more than 90% of national health spending. this issue has ram -- ramifications. when patients can better manage their chronic conditions like diabetes and high blood pressure we can see admission in hospital admissions and we can see the benefit, the drug industry is a
7:30 am
dynamic engine for our economy and helps create jobs. i hear concerns about rising drug costs as i travel across the countryiv from state officials, ceos, providers and, of course, patients and families, many wonder if it's possible to have innovation and affordability. it's a complex problem and we know that the solution won't be simple but it is a problem that we can solve. and i know that none of us accept that we must choose between innovation and a healthcare system that can provide access to affordable medicines that can heal us and improve our lives. many of you have heard me say that i believe we have a historic opportunity to transform our healthcare system to one that delivers better care, smarter spending and healthier people. i believe that the same
7:31 am
principles cane guide us here d same fundamental approaches can be put to work on this set of issues. in the last five years the goals of access, affordability and quality have guided our efforts to reduce the number of unsured in america and we've made strides. estimated 17.6 million fewer americans are uninsured. with preventive care at no extra cost, we raised the quality of coverage for everyone. we are continuing to transform our healthcare system into one that delivers quality over quantity and puts the patient at the center of their care. we excerpted and implemented successful efforts for new payment models, we are changing incentives, improving how health care is delivered and using
7:32 am
information in better ways. througg h fda we are looking to find better ways to expedite and improve our review process. we are working with many of you in this room to find ways to deliver better care, spend healthcare dollars more wisely and power and engage consumers and patients as they take control of their health. as we work to strike the balance between innovation and keeping drugs accessible and affordable, we must lead the principles of putting the consumer at the center guide our thinking and i hope that principle will guide the thinking on today's discussion. the title of today's forum actually tells an ambitious story how our nation can lead in pharmaceutical innovation and deliver access to high-quality
7:33 am
affordable health care. our first panel how we foster innovation while providing smarter spending. next, we will be discussing access and conferreddability. -- and affordability. how can we make sure that patients have access to the drugs that they need? next we will talk about what's working in best practices. we want to hear about new value and outcome purchase strategies and best approaches and we want to think about ways that that can be implemented in both medicaid and medicare. we want to hear your thoughts on how to increase access to information and improve transparency and promote strategy that is incorporate value and outcome based models.
7:34 am
we believe that patients manufacturers provideers insurers all share a common goal. we can find common ground. were here today to listen and to learn and we are happy to have each of your voices in this discussion, with all of us engaged in this conversation, we can come together to find a solution that meets the needs of our wide and diverse community. we believe in a bright future and the possibilities to improve lives are endless, we believe that though this problem is complex, we know that action will be needed from all of us here today, and we know that we
7:35 am
can find solutions. we won't agree on everything but if we come together, we are going to move forward. together we can find a path that doesn't ask us to choose between innovation and affordability because our citizens deserve both of those. i look forward to this conversation and thank you all so much for joining us today. [applause] >> thank you so much secretary burwell and thank you for laying out the path that we will be exploring today as we discuss the benefits to patients, innovation and the issues around affordability,ef specialty drug, of courses and patients and consumers at the center of all of this. the program today is being web cast and the question and answer period that follows the presentations also will be web cast. after each panel we will have an
7:36 am
opportunity indeed for that question and answer session, we ask that you come to the microphone here in the center aisle to ask your question and even though we all have tendency to either ask questions or give short speeches today we would like you to, in effect, ask your questions in a succinct way. i will introduce panels more briefly, their full biographies in the website. drivers of costs and impact on those costs on the various stakeholders and the need to find a balance between innovation and smarter spending initiatives. to set that very important table
7:37 am
we are joined by two leading voices in this entire area. first we will hear from doug long. after doug speaks we will hear from mark mcclellam. mark is all of you will know has a long list of credentials but pertinence is the fact that he served as administrator among many other responsibilities during tenure. he also was former commissioner of the food and drug administration. doug is going to start with a look at the current environment and what we might expect in the
7:38 am
coming years from a comps perspective. so doug, welcome. [applause] >> thank you, susan. it's a pleasure and honor to be here. it's been a long here. i think it's number 85 that took me to ten different countries including belgium and france last month. what i want to do is level-set where we are today and we are going to be talking about the balance between innovation and smarter spending. first of all, since 2014, the u.s. market has been back to double-digit pharmaceutical growth. what i want to say is that we do this on invoice price and invoice price that we do not net out the rebates. so we are back to double-digit
7:39 am
growth. i've been looking at this market since 1989 and i would say that there have been three cycles that we have been in. we had double-digit growth from late 90's to 2003, the blockbuster era when lipitor came to the market and all of those. some people said in 1999 when we entered the next millennium that we would see pharmaceutical growth forever. that didn't happened because the generic wave happened. it started when prozac went off that. it's been a tremendous impact in terms of savings in the market. now, the cycle we are in now started off as the biological cycle and now i call it the specialty cycle and specially is 35% of the spending, some people
7:40 am
predict it'll be 50% of the spending in year 2020. when you look at this double-digit growth, in 2012 the market actually went down, that was the year lipitor went off patent and so forth. $35 billion of pharmaceutical value went generic. the next year was a modest year of 3.5 increase andle then we hd 2014. in 2014 the story was hepatitis c. if you recall it was introduced to the market in december of 2013 and one year's time it became the largest specialty and general product overall. and the story of hepatitis c is a, it's at cure and b it's the number of people that you're
7:41 am
able to treat now and a number of people treated today is six times more than it was five years ago. so we had the double-digit growth a and if you looked at lt year's 12.5% growth. you net -- if you looked at price contribution to this growth, this was 3.1 points of that 12 and a half percent. it is coming from utilize -- utilization, traditional pharmaceutical products products are growing at 8% rate. the net effect is 13%. we expect this trend to continue and a little later on tell you what particular areas that you should be watching out for. so i remember i said the generic era year 2000 to up in the day,
7:42 am
generics of - all the growth in the marketplace are contributing 9% of the market growth whereas in 2011 it was 40%. and we had some years in the previous decade is that that was 90% of the growth came from generics, all of this has turned around by innovation. we can't forget the contribution generics have made because of a study we make each year, recently revealed that we had saved by the availability of low-cost generic drugs. it's going to go a little higher, then we will stabilize. a summary of where wir today, we are now growing at 12.3% and we now have a marketplace that is
7:43 am
more than $400 billion for the first time and hepatitis c, diabetes, oncology are the primary, prescription growth is 1.2% of the year, substantial reduction from last year, the primary effect isub the hidrocon which cut thech market by 30%. and 75% of the new brand spending is on specialty. you can't look at the market here and around the world without talking about specialty. next year we expect to go off. this is what is driving spending growth. you can see hepatitis is at the
7:44 am
top followed by diabetes, oncology, multiple sclorosis, if you look close at the slide and i assume that you get copies of this later, you can see what the significant impacts are in each of these things and we break it down by new brands, what's growing on with protected brands, what's going on with the generics and secretary specifically looked at hepatitis c growth is because of innovation. innovation braus -- brought us first cure in 96% of the patients will be cured within eight to 12 weeks. this is revolutionary, diabetes is combination of innovation and what's going on in protected
7:45 am
brands, oncology has impact on a loss of exclusivity. in oncology, the difference today verses years ago it's a chronic disease than death sentence. when you look at new brand spending is the biggest impact is hepatitis c. ifin you just filed the chart yu see the impact of new brand spending in years going back to 2010 and you see that those numbers average 6.7 billion and went to $10 billion and jumped up to $25 billion with new brand spending and innovation in 2014 and through june of 15 in the last 12 months over $30 billion. you see the biggest chunk of that w is hepatitis c. and you also have orphan disease
7:46 am
drugs that are growing, also autoimmune and so support. when you look at the specialty market, characteristics are very different than traditional marketplace, you see the contrast from the left side of the chart andeu the right side f the chart. the first thing that you'll see on specialty is the value of innovation specialty, so the biggest reason why specialty growth is growing the way it is today is because innovation in the marketplace. andit the best example of that s the hepatitis c category. so if you file that category just fors a moment is that that category has been progressing for a long period of time. the previous generation of products came to the marketplace and they got a patient -- increase in patient population, but then all of a sudden they
7:47 am
came to a halt because people were waiting for the next new thing, which was the next new generation of hepatitis c products. it's no longer on the market because the newer generation, less side effects and you look at lost of exclusivity. and the role that you'll see playing be more biosimilars. generics have definitely impacted that trend through time. that trend is is lessoning. these are the top 10 categories of that spend pharmaceutical dollars on and they represent
7:48 am
56.5% of tall spending of what we spend on farm pharmaceutical. and just another note, just to keep in mind, is that pharmaceuticals are 10-12% of what we spend on health care. 88% we spend elsewhere. this is one of the better values. if we look at diabetes, followed by oncology, autoimmune, mental health, pain, hiv, regulators and many of these are specialty categories, those are the ones that have increases. if you look at the increase on hepatitis c, that's 144% increase from the previous 12 months and most of the other ones in the range of 20 were 30%. now, just some notes when you look at the slide, diabetes category is up because there's more diabetic patients all of the time. there's more innovation in that
7:49 am
category, but there will be similar lower costs alternatives coming in that category within the next two years. oncology we have to look at pd1's, pd1's, they work with the immune system to help treat the cancer. so that category will go up. autoimmune, respiratory, advair, lost exclues i have in may of this year. pain, i just want to make a point about the last one which is lipid regulators, you see here is a $13.5 billion category. it once was a 25 billion-dollar category when all the products had patent protection.
7:50 am
generics have saved in access of $15 billion or so in the next few years and next year that category will be some $10 billion. the challenge will be is what we now have as pcsk9 which are cholesterol drugs. cvs said that if these drugs will add $100 billion to healthcare spending in the united states. if we were spending 125 billion, we had the risk that we could spend up to $100 billion on that. that's why appropriate use is going to be very important. these are some going up and going down. that is a function of nexium losing its patent. let's look at leading categories of growth. you want to look at the far right-hand side. these are the categories that are growing the most.
7:51 am
viral hepatitis, this is 12 months ending september 15. i can tell you that when we looked at 12 months ending june of 15, that number was in the 9 billion-dollar range so it looks as though that we may have started to peek in terms of the explosive growth in hepatitis. you look at number seven, these are the new what we call sglt, you see a lot of advertising on those, most of these things as you see on the list are specialty products all growing more than a billion dollars and add number 11 and 12. we have 12 categories in excess of $12 billion. the challenge is the generic conversion subtract $7 billion in spending and new brand is up over $30 billion. so that's -- presents a significant challenge to the
7:52 am
payers including the government and t medicare and medicaid and commercial insurance. now let's move to approvals and this looks at fda approvals from 2005 to 2014, and note that 2014 we have the most approvals than we had in the previous decade. 50 of these. and of those 50, 26% -- or 26 of them were specialty drugs and that meant 52% of all the approvals were spernlty -- specialty. if you look back in the years of 2005 to '14, the last five years has been 57% of the approvals. so more approvals are coming on specialty than on traditional pharmaceutical products. another way to look at that in the late stage pipeline, phase
7:53 am
one and phase two and three, there's 3,622 products that have been filed and the other significance is 779 of them are orphan drugs. so rare disease drugs have been pronounced in the last years. that's 250 products and administration is 30% of who ors and when you look at 55% of injection that goes hand-in-hand with specialty drugs. but still very pronounced. so we expect thatst the next fie years will be very pronounced in terms of -- of approval of new active substances, following indications. there's a lot more to come in the pipeline and the fda has
7:54 am
been productive in approving these products. , now, we just published a report that looked at the global look of medicines and i'm going the share a couple with you and if you need to get a hold of it, please contact me. here is what our notion is of what we are going to look at in terms of disease treatment. and the new medications will be specially in biologics. hepatitis c, autoimmune, heart disease and orphan disease and others by 2020. cancer treatment, oncology with 225 medicines expect to be
7:55 am
introduced within the next five years. technology will enable changes in treatment protocols, engagement and accountability and patient provider interaction . 470 drugs will be available to treat orphan diseases. there's 7,000 rare diseases, so we only scratched the surface on this and these have been revolutionary for people who have hunting disease, cystic c. one thing i did not mention earlier is that when you look at 35% of the united states, is
7:56 am
that only represents 1-2% of the prescriptions. 1-2% of the prescriptions is leading to 25% of specialty spent. so here is and i lust traición of the progress that we made worldwide in terms of -- in terms of innovation. the right-hand side shows which ones are going to be biologics and which ones traditional bioligics and specially small molecules. most of the growth is on specialty side. 91% of will be targeted versus
7:57 am
radiation, 33% of these will have biomarkers, we are moving in the direction that you'll be able to make sure that cancer drug is going to work on the person before you give it to them and even in cancer it's 33% in 2020, rare disease cancer drugs, for very specific specific-rare-types of cancer. this will show you the treatment pattern of what we've seen and expect from 2011 to 2020. you see the growing and the blue is growing as well, so the function is we are now treating six times more hepatitis c patients in the united states from what we are doing six years ago.
7:58 am
now i have a couple of other thoughts, is that one of the things that we are in the era of is biosimilars. the first one was launched last month in september, actually in september is a biosimilar version. just this week as the fda accepted a biosimilar application. the marketplace in the united states has finally started. it's been well established since 2007 in europe and finally started here in the united states and where you really see the price competition in the marketplace and yo su have multiple entries into that molecule, two or three or four and that's likely to happen in the next few years, why did i show this chart, because most of the biologics that we are familiar with their patent has
7:59 am
expired. at the same time the small molecule generic drought start to happen, just one note, it costs 1 million to 2 million to bring molecule generic to the marketplace where it costs 100 million to 200 million. that's going to be a very different dynamic. the secretary talked about avoidable costs, this is a tuid that we did in 2012 that said that we could save $213 billion per year if we did the six things on the right-hand side. the first thing is medication nod adherence. it's still a big problem in the united states. that accounts for half of the number. delayed evidence-based treatment, followed by antibiotic misuse, mismanaged
8:00 am
polypharmacy, senior citizens taking five different drugs by different doctors, you take fewer if they're reconciled. of the $213 billion there's $140 billion of that money is saved in hospitals, because what happens if you take a pharmaceutical or take one inappropriately, generally those people end up in hospitals. $140 billion and we could save as many as 10 million hospitalizations a year if we did that. the next big is outpatient visit, 75 billion. 45 billion or 78 million outpatient visits and then you see down at the bottom is emergency room visits, we still have 4 million emergency room visits and that's $6 billion. now what you see in prescriptions is that in some
8:01 am
cases if you have less use to antibiotics that's fewer prescriptions. now going forward in spending growth, between now and 2020, and the important thing is -- and as i get older my eyes get weaker and i can't read the screen here. .. we are expecting the growth rate to slow down. we expect the compound between five and 8 percent between now and the end of the decade. it will slow down.
8:02 am
at list price we will be looking at a market of 560 to 590 billion dollars, 34 percent increase over 2014 and we expect spending to stay about the same. let me leave you with some closing thoughts. i go a little late on this one, but i have two minutes to go through the slot. the new hepatitis c drugs are cures. the innovation are major drivers of the trend, so we will see more patients treated.
8:03 am
so the payer focus, and stevefocus, and steve miller will talk about this this afternoon is that hepatitis c gets out for the reasons i mentioned. the pd one orphan drugs, although i have not heard discussions. think for a minute, as the secretary said, 3 million patients treated with hepatitis d in the united states. the prices of these products came out around 100,000 and are now around the $50,000 range. , but $50,000 for 3 million patients is a hundred $50 billion. pts j 9 up to 100 billion. td one is undetermined, but they are the next new thing, and orphancommand orphan drugs are often in excess of
8:04 am
200 million apiece. and to think for a minute if we developed the 1st successful alzheimer's or dementia treatment how many people have alzheimer's or dementia in the united states and how much that would cost. we will have this big challenge so that the innovation is there and we have the ability to treat more patients but trying to come up with the money. the more the prices will come down. and the application, the fda said they had 14 million patient cases of therapy. the appropriate patient population is to make sure that you are getting the
8:05 am
right drug and patient population and i think that they will be very clean -- keen on controlling that. we have seen that in hepatitis d and will see more in the future. my last thought was more appropriate use of medicines that will save money in the marketplace. with that, thank you very te foryour k [applause] >> good morning. it's great to follow doug and a pleasure to be with all of you on this very important topic of getting innovation, better health access and affordability in the health care, particularly for prescription drugs. it's critical for all americans and i appreciate hhs bringing together such diverse viewpoints and undertake a very thoughtful approach to this very significant issue. also want to give a quick thanks to the commonwealth fund for their support for our work is closely related areas of what i'm going to talk about today. and that is about to pick up where doug left off and go to a bigger picture around some of
8:06 am
the trends in spending, issues around valley and some of the policy steps that may be taken to address the challenge of achieving all of these goals at the same time. i'm going to talk about health outcome in spending trends trying to frame up some of the comments that doug just made and then talk about some of the options of announcing access versus innovation or secretary burwell also highlighted are the approaches that could potentially improve access and improve innovation at the same time. want to highlight along the way there are different issues for different types of drugs, oral drugs that you get through a pharmacy versus intravenous drugs that are typically delivered by a physician in a medical office or hospital, and the role of generics and while some workers as doug noted. and spend a few minutes at the in highlighting some of the sessions you would about this afternoon around value-based
8:07 am
drug payment reforms and incorporating reforms affecting drug pricing into overall health care payment reforms, a big trend in this country right now. i want to start out with this point about one side of valley. there has been undoubtedly tremendous impact of pharmaceutical innovation with a lot more to come. as you heard about from doug. lots of diseases have been transformed, diabetes, hiv. i remember when i was in medical training and we couldn't do anything for an hiv patient in trying to make them comfortable. now that has transformed thanks to pharmaceutical progress. hepatitis c we talked a lot about already. coronary artery disease, many genetic disorders and other diseases that were much more likely to be fatal or much more impactful on the affecting patients health. cancer modality death rates in our by pushing have declined by 20% over the last two decades.
8:08 am
no small part due to drugs. hiv with mortality rate declined of 80% in the last 20 years and hepatitis c mortality and morbidity will be declining as well. this is just the front end of changes that are coming. as you heard from doug there are over 7000 drugs in development. most of these are first in class, targeted therapies to fall into the special the class because of their high prices that are expected because of its potential impacts on health. that gets to why this discussion of value of pharmaceutical is so important. there are several components. one is the impact on avoiding health care costs are i've heard about that today. second arson impacts on nonmedical costs, things like enabling people to get back to work or be more productive in their job. secretary burwell also mentioned this morning that the
8:09 am
pharmaceutical industry rings with a high level of r&d spending at a lot of economic growth with high quality jobs in the industry. i think the most important thing to emphasize about drugs and about other medical technologies is their impact on this last point, longer and better lives for americans. so taking have to see drugs, there's been some estimates that suggest some significant downstream cost savings but according to many of these studies that's not the full bow to of the treatment. by some estimates only about 10-20% the up front treatment cost would be offset even five years out and even 20 years out. not all of the price is offset. nonetheless, many of the studies of the cost effectiveness of these drugs have shown their over all a pretty good deal, route 18, $20,000 per quality life years.
8:10 am
that said, a lot of drugs show very different estimates and their has been a lot of emphasis in recent months and years on developing better ways to characterize the value of these new drugs especially the high cost specialty drugs, a number of groups involved in cancer care have come up with framework. there's a nice report by peter neumann in the journal this week about the different approaches and some the challenges in them. on the one hand, it's very hard to capture all of these dimensions in a way that makes sense for patients that have different preferences about how they want to trade off safety issues and cost issues and health outcome issues. on the other hand, there is a lot of evidence that the value of the drugs on the market today very tremendously with some drugs, some specialty drugs and some indications worth on the
8:11 am
order of $2000 per quality adjusted life, a very good value to others that $200,000, $500,000 or more. ever methods lead to different answers, challenging estimates to calculate but no question a lot of variation out there in the context of what has been some really valuable contributions to improving health. and with that framing, no wonder there's so much attention to the cost of prescription drugs and rising costs. we are seeing a shift in prescription drugs towards more person class of drugs. you heard earlier specialty drugs are approaching over 40%, headed towards 50% or more of spending. and we have had this bump in recent years of spending growth, which is probably hard to read but the vertical bar, or the annual spending growth rate for
8:12 am
prescription drugs, the line going up through the 2014 is the trends in over all national health expenditures. you can see that phase that doug mentioned earlier followed by a slowdown in prescription drug spending growth contributing to the overall slowdown in health care spending growth, and then a big push up recently due to such things as trends with hepatitis c drugs. that growth is expected to be moderated in the next few years as doug highlighted in detail. this is a chart that breaks out of the experience with prescription drug growth by different players. you can see the last couple of years have been a particularly tough time for spending growth for medicaid programs. i can related to hep c and specialty drug trends. private health insurance growth has been particularly slow but looking forward while the overall spending and trends are
8:13 am
moderating particularly for medicaid programs, the growth rates are expected to be higher than they have been in the past. this does mean, you would think is looking for prescription drugs are contributing more to overall health care spending, and there's an upward trend expected in that. according to the national health expenditure estimates, prescription drugs have remained around 10% of overall spending. this doesn't include much of a nonretail use of drugs. this is drugs administered in hospitals and other places. not at retail settings. that could get the number up to 13 or 14%. i want to highlight a point that doug may this will that if you really want to address overall health care spending it's important to look at not only the direct cost of drugs, the effective use of drugs or other parts of health care system. i will come back to that as
8:14 am
well. ut of pocket has been a significant issue for growing number of americans, and the overall context, it has been a significant part, but not the only story. again, highlighting the importance of speaking about drugs. that said come out of pocket spending is higher for patients with many kind of disorders. higher than out-of-pocket spending for hospital care, professional service care and other components of healthcare which suggests that there may be ways of addressing the costs by taking on how to bring down overall costs in the context of prescription drug use. so with that as a way of
8:15 am
framing of the bigger cost and value issues i want to turn to the policy options. how much to emphasize access now versus incentives how long should it be. also medical or government price association. the best price for negotiation.
8:16 am
pharmaceutical benefit managers, selective formularies and utilization reviews but may have impact on access. allowing more unstricted in contrast would be a lot more unrestricted pricing which many people talk about being part of a competitive market, free market pricing. but keep in mind that most of these prices are paid by a third party insurance plan. that's why they are taking steps for utilization review and other ways of limiting utilization since the price is not actually something that is paid out of pocket by the consumer. that's why we have this debate. it's a balance between how do you balance access versus innovation. a further point that has been raised to some of steps that fda industry and academic groups, nih are taking to try to make this process for developing drugs more predictable and
8:17 am
efficient, that can be supported by things like investment in precision medicine and better data systems that protect much more accurately which patients are going to respond. that is unquestionably have an impact on drug development. in some cases a substantial reduce the cost and time and uncertainty of drug development. it's important to keep in mind that the cost of production are not directly related to the price and the value of a drug. those costs are sunk at the time a drug comes to market. that's why many efforts to look at valley around cost effectiveness and other systems i talked about are really focusing on the actual price versus what drug is doing in terms of impact and outcomes for patients. there's another type of policy reform proposal that secretary also emphasized and those the ones to promote both access and innovation. how can you do both? those will be policy reforms
8:18 am
that strengthened the incentive for developing valuable treatments, that focus more support on those treatments, at the same time discourage high prices that don't reflec reflece and to lead to excess and cases where value is low or negative. and thus lead to unnecessary spending on pharmaceuticals. you're going to more about these kinds of proposals later today as well. also about the role of government versus the private sector in undertaking these kind of efforts. so i want to talk about some of these efforts in the context of specific types of drugs because they are different. on the one hand, oral self-administered drugs, the drugs include a prescription drug benefit in programs like medicare part d, generally obtained through pharmacies and some of the big cost control efforts, efforts to target the youth to high-value indications involved pharmacy benefit managers. benefits with some of the lower
8:19 am
cost and more about the drugs on the lower tiers. in this area some of the proposals that have been put forward that could potentially both encourage innovation and reduced spending growth are getting more competing drugs to the market faster. this is something fda perhaps not as part of the policy has had a role in. for example, the hepatitis c drug has been a big part of this cost discussion in the last few years were all approved under a new breakthrough designation pathway, for the fta that brought those of drugs to market faster. not just the first one that others were in developing at the same time, accelerate both the kind of treatment, a new treatment be available and competing branch to bring down prices and competition would be available as well. or have been proposals for more accountability for insurers to encourage them to take further steps to keep costs down. for example, in the medicare program today close to half of
8:20 am
the spending is in the catastrophic part of the drug benefit now. that's up and a reflection of the trend toward more use of higher price specially drugs that can have a very big impact. most of the costs in that range are paid for by the government, through help with those additional costs with medicare covering 80% of the cost in the catastrophic range. a different model may be putting more of that accountability on the insurers. also i'm going to talk more in a few minutes about models in which manufactures may have more accountability for the payments associated with the drugs and outcomes as well come and we will talk about as well during the course of the day including drug payment and broader efforts to reform health care payment. another type of drug use
8:21 am
involved intravenous or physician administered drugs, these are drugs are generally administered in a physician office or the hospital. this is where a lot of the specialty cancer drugs come into play. this is a different kind of pricing system that generally does not involve pbm's and formulary management just prescribe oral drugs. rather medicare as a this position where it's payment for the drugs for the organizations, the hospital, the doctor mentioned the drug is based on the average sales price. it's intend to reflect the price actually paid by providers. similar systems are used by many private insurers as well. they use the asp for their price negotiation and questions raised about whether setting a price like that that would be paid for by medicare and other third party payers it was the best way to encourage high-value or if it's contribute to some of those big variations that have been
8:22 am
highlighted in the valley of many part d drugs. in terms of reforms, some people suggest that shifting toward the same kind of pbm or forward-based approaches that have been used for oral drugs. this is turnout so far, far to be pretty difficult to implement but maybe as more alternatives come forward and intravenous drugs like the bio similars adult was describing, this could be more viable option. they are are also been proposals around pricing changes and whether later today about the program which is a version of that price available to certain purchasers of drugs. medicare has had consideration of the least cost alternative policy were drugs in medicare being similar to do the same thing and then once again as alternatives to those approaches which all have the drawback
8:23 am
shift to value-based payments or links to broader payment reform models. the third category of drug pricing and drug use and falls a generic bio similar drugs. these price are typically much lower. you heard from doug that billions of dollars in savings could have occurred as a result of generic drugs are coming available typically lead to 80, 90% or more price declines for the brand name drug also want to highlight the importance of similar brand drugs being available. this is not just biosimilars but over the last decade the availability of drug, drugs in the same class has also led to significant price declines as well. you heard from doug about the decline, about the increase in generic dispensing, projected to go even higher. and even though brand name drugs
8:24 am
make up a small part, now a small part of the total expenditures, generic drug prescriptions heading to over 90% of the total will account for an increasing important part of over all drug spending as well. some of the issues involved here are this practice does not always match the figure some recent high profile cases in the news about big increases in prices refer not do brand name drugs but drugs that represent, that event on the market for a long time, characterized as brand to generic import prices, high prices seem to persist with either a result of generic drug shortages or a result of companies being able to raise prices, and not see a competitive response. so in another important area for further development involves
8:25 am
finding ways to make the generic drugs market work better. fda has tried to take some steps to address this, but between generic drug user fees and some other challenges in getting products to market, even small molecule drugs especially at the market is not that they, like for some hiv specialty products, it may be hard for others to come in. to are probably some steps to be taken to address that. finally, on biosimilars, as doug said they are coming, they're still a lot of quality issues to work through a round naming, substitution, how they will actually impact pricing. i think it will be more significant than many people suggest, and then since many of these biosimilars involved are be drugs, they're going to be some challenges around how to -- they get separate codes which will have an impact on how they affect pricing and overall spending. i want to end with just a few comments about where things are headed next i think in terms of
8:26 am
payment for drug. talked a lot about some of the alternatives between higher prices versus more access to higher prices versus more access and innovation versus availability. want to highlight for value-based payment you anymore today about approaches based on prior evidence such as indication specific pricing. people like peter bock have proposed this approach. cost-effectiveness threshold could be set by government but their many approaches and the private sector based on some of the emerging methods, better evidence on drug treatments through support these kinds of approaches. payments based on patient results, so that's outcome based pricing. and value-based insurance. right now we are beginning to see this. most of the drug plans have prices and formulary tiers based on the cost of the drug a value-based insurance plan like
8:27 am
the one that premier new jersey isn't limited would have something like no co-pays for drugs that have the highest value, the most cost effective, maybe to bring down overall costs the most. and higher co-pays per drugs that do less well in terms of outcome impact for the drug spending and on a. that's not quite the same thing. that's what we have now with specialty tear tiers that are bd just on the cost of the drug. in terms of getting to these approaches, steps like risk the judgment are really important making sure that patients who have higher needs get more payment into the insurance plan. so this helps the insurer take steps to make those drugs more available to high-risk patients, better measures of outcomes on board. we have some measures that can be observed in a timely way for drugs like for coronary artery disease, diabetes, hypertension, hepatitis c, hiv, things like
8:28 am
viral loads. but in many other conditions we don't have these kind of outcome measures easily available for many cancers, there were degenerative disease for example. but that outcome measures could help are also what is needed is better evidence on the impact of drugs on outcomes. lots of other factors besides the drugs themselves influence outcomes. this is why steps like development and other collaborative efforts to get to a learning health care system are really important. and in view of these new payment models there are some new regulatory issues that would have to be addressed. for example, that medicaid best price approach i mentioned could potentially be triggered by drugs daughter highly valuable versus drugs for indications are less highly valuable getting in the way of adopting the new kind of payment model. and, finally, of which is like to end by having the importance of including drugs in broader payment reform. alternative payment models are a
8:29 am
high level goal for the department of health and human services and cms. also a bipartisan poll that's been reflected in recent physician payment reform legislation, macro to move to we payment models for physicians and for the other health care providers that they work with. many of these models right now could put more accountability on health care providers for using high-value drugs effectively. things like medical pathways based on measures of the evidence in support of a particular drug use, episode-based payment bundles where physicians involved in care, the hospitals involving care could have to take on more accountability for using drugs efficiently. person based bundles such as an accountable care organization. it's important to think of ways in which a drug manufacturers may also share in this kind of
8:30 am
accountability for financial risk based on results of care, based on accountability for care. .. of moving toward more personalized medicine. this will increasingly very based upon things that healthcare providers working with drug manufacturers can do, using the drug effectively with other treatments. there is not one intrinsic value. would it not be nice if some of the efforts around drug sales and other promotions or better aligned with getting the best outcomes at the lowest cost per patients , especially those who can benefit the most. this might give way to the current sale 1st strategy,
8:31 am
one that could work for you >> a lot of potential for value creation there but again, a lot of obstacles since our current payment system for drugs is based on fee for service approach rather than pay for value as part of the overall heal approach. this would be steps by breaking down the sparration and impact between part d pricing and impacts on amd healthcare costs and incorporate and enabling the incorporation of drug price systems, a look at home medicaid best price and other. you will here more later today >> these are not easy problems to solve and i'm confident that we can do better than we are doing today in terms of improving both access and innovation per prescription drugs. thank you very much for the
8:32 am
opportunity to join me. [applause] >> we have a 400 billion-dollar biopharmaceutical market today on a way to 600 billion-dollar. a lot of impact of specialty drugs for those accounting about 35% of sales, as you said. some of the new oncology drugs that have c drugs, psa9, cholesterol, etc. generic drugs, that's slowing down the impact of that as you said, doug, and with that constituting now about 9% of sales growth annually. as you described, both of you,
8:33 am
what we have ahead of us in the pipeline is amazing and impressive. 7,000 rare diseases with drug targets now. a number of active substances. biosimilars. and as you said, very powerfully, mark, we are getting a lotai of value out of these drugs in terms of avoided health costs, expenditures, etc. both of you referenced the cost savings whether it's getting patients to adhere or having more evidence-based treatment or coverage with evidence development. you mentioned correct use of antibiotics as wellf as you sai,
8:34 am
mark, quality options. we can look at some opportunities for as you said, putting part d more into integration of other payment. so there's lots of potential here to capture some savings and, yet, also achieve a lot of the value and care. so with that, let's open it up to some questions from all of you, again, if you would keep the questions succinct. >> good morning, my name is aileen, i'm a pharmacist for 35 years and you both talked about the value of generics and competition, in particular treating diabetes, so when i was a new pharmacists, came out at $20 ana hour, i thought, how
8:35 am
could people possibly afford this over the beef pork, today that insulin is over $250, so my question so you is have either one of your organizations measured aside from the value thatr we captured in generics, aside from the costs and trends in the new innovations, what is the impact of just the pure increase on the market and what more are we paying because of thatpa issue? >> mark, you did mention that briefly. >> that may be something more in doug's area. we have looked at policy that help make the generic market potentially work more efficiently, and the whole point of generic drugs is that there should be easy for additional
8:36 am
manufacturers that come in if the drugs are being priced abovt the cost the manufacturing and provide lower cost alternative. again, in some cases, generics, that doesn't seem top happening. that's an issue that fda is looking into with respect to things like the user fees charge for bringing generic drug to market, manufacturing and other requirements, waysth to streamle processes through better manufacturing regulations and encouraging more competition in brand and generics. that's sort of a different problem than the challenge of how toob address the costs and provide access for some of the new t specialty very effective that are coming along.
8:37 am
>> can you give us a quick change>> that's been due to phenomena. >> i don't know the answer off of the top of my head. ting pbm's, we are probably in better position than that than we are on that. >> approval of those. >> higher than it's ever been. >> right. >> improving but we have not taken a big whack at that. >> we know in particular there's a feeling, incremental cost of production and yet it's a thousand dollars and up. it's a sr. serious issue.
8:38 am
were you read the slide that there are 200 billion or more in drug costs associated with optimal prescribing, what i didn't see there was prevention benefits particularly in hiv early treatment, i wondered if the numbers factored when you determined what can reach in terms of avoid of a cost. we are in those numbers, but not oncology and not autoimmune and other specialty drugs. it is a big issue in terms of noncompliance and those other six things that if we are serious about it, it's a good way to save a lot of money. >> i'm afraid we are going to have time for one more question. we will try to pick up the questions in the next session, if we could.
8:39 am
>> value-based solutions were part of the solutions that mark just brought up. i wanted to know how we could overcome the barriers for an organization as part a of the question and part b that value requires the actual price cost payment, et cetera, and what is the role of price transparency to determine the real value of a transparent value. >> as you're pointing out, there's a difference between nonrebait prices and the actual prices and that difference may be increasing a bit over time. one of the things that i think the movement towards more value-base payment for treatments could accomplish is building that in and allowing
8:40 am
more donald -- data on it. >> that doesn't mean that's the only way to do it. in the u.s. there have been a number of efforts in the private sector under way to try to better characterize value and the data, the so-called is held by providers that are becoming more accountable for the overall costs themselves. maybe features in our drug payments that account for coverage with development, hopefully we can accelerate more of that underlying evidence. there's a lot -- just because the government doesn't do it, it doesn't mean it can't be done. i used an example of a pbm to
8:41 am
set different tiers and that certainly can be incorporated in the private-sector approach as well. >> i will just sayse if we are having the meeting ten years from now a lot of this will be a moot point. so how do these products work in the real world and that would lead to a much more value-base system. i woulild characterize that in e next ten years from now, if you can't demonstrate outcomes, you have no income or the other way to look at it, outcomes equals income. >> the big question is hownc quickly and effectively can we get to there where we are now in terms of capturing the evidence and using it effectively and strategically. >> thanks to both of you. you've not only given a 30-foot look and also zeroed down to the
8:42 am
ground level and have given us examples of the drugs we will see coming up and the challenges we will face to make this affordable. we are going to take a quick break now. reconvening for the first panel discussion at 10:30 a.m., if you need to bail yourself to the restroom, you need know where to find your escort. thank you, doug and mark for joining us. [applause] [inaudible conversations]
8:43 am
[inaudible conversations] >> as we said earlier, we are going to focus on addressing patient access and affordability of prescription drugs. our discussion is going to address challenges faced and the types of plan coverage that they have and how that affects their access as well as the types of clinical and financial information that would help increase access and incentivize value. for those of you who are joining us via the web cast, all of today's faculty biographies are
8:44 am
on the website. bianca dijulio is with us, society director at the kaiser family foundation. next to her is susan dentzer and at the end is debra bailey whitman from aarp. we asked these folks to tell us in their organization, from heather's case as experience as a patient and highlight the top challenge and the top opportunity both for individuals of patients and for policy as we work our way through these issues. so heather, we are going to begin with you, tell us a little bit about your story and give us a sense of how you see the opportunities and the challenges. >> sure torques begin with a
8:45 am
shoutout to hhs staff, i started my career here in graduate school many years ago. i haven't been in this building in decades. it's still the same. kind of interesting to be back here under very different coi because of susan mentioned i'm representing myself. i may be the only person in the room representing themselves which is a lot easier on the one hand and on the other harder. suffice to say, i had a false negative mammogram. no history, was in my 40's living in afghanistan working for the un. fortunately i was on cobra. i have now stage 4 cancer. i think there's enough medical that i don't need to explain what that prognosis means.
8:46 am
the key is i live on disability and i have to dip into savings each month. the u.s. taxpayer and the u.s. government is footing the majority of my drug costs through medicare right now, yet, i still face financial and security and eventually bankruptcies if i live that long. my top issue is number one transparency. the drug that i am on has 4700 to 970000 for the same drug. i have $270,000 in medical bills just in the last three years from one drug. that was build -- i have no idea what the actual cost is. i haven't been able to figure that out. number two, the under 65 disabled population is under a patch work of state regulation and legislation. i had to work with my state legislature and pass my own bill
8:47 am
to get coverage. i could not afford to pay the 20% copay yet the insurers in my state had the right to turn me down or refuse me or offered me ridiculously expensive premiums, $3,000 a month for one quote and that's 20% coverage. the bill past and it's no longer the case in my state, yet each case is different and a huge issue for cancer patients such as dc and virginia. my third issue is there's no out-of-pocket maximum. as we heard in presentation, many are in part b as are mine. if it's expected the day comes that i could no longer support coverage, i would be paying the copay, $2,000 a month just for the one drug, not my doctor's
8:48 am
cat scans or anything else. fda did regulate out out of poc. this remains a problem for medicare recipients. number four as cancer care progresses, i'm glad to see that there's a lot of of drugs in the pipeline, maybe they can keep me a little longer. lastly, skin in the game, i have grown to despise this term, congress has chosen to do away with plan, as they feel it may encourage unnecessary treatment and so on. i always wanted to ask about skin in the game, part of my lifer enough, is most of my savings enough and why must i worry about financial as much as i worry about cancer. that's my day-to-day existence. i'm a middle-class american that happened to get cancer.
8:49 am
i could be any of you. thank you. >> thank you very much, heather. [applause] >> marc. >> thank you, susan, as a patient advocate i want to commend heather, it's what it's all about when you're a patient advocacy so tremendous work there. i also want to thank the secretary for convening this meeting with all the stakeholders which is the council way. our organization is controlled in terms of co by the patients organizations. we have all stakeholders and membership, that includes providers, payers and the bio pharmaceutical sector, device sector and soon the generics association. we work to achieve solutions but involve all stakeholders so that
8:50 am
we can truly make solutions work and this is the only approach where we can address this issue. i wanted to talk to you about three specific issues in my own comments. first is, over the course of the last several decades we've done research on people with chronic disease and their family caregivers, what they tell us routinely is hay hate the fact that there are industries both insurance companies and the biopharmaceutical sector that make money off of the development of treatments or providing care to them, but they also understand that it drives innovation for the development of new treatment and for better care. more recently our research has shifted and the tone has begun to focus on how plans are structured and increasingly what we are finding with people with chronic conditions is they're going into insurance products
8:51 am
that have taken what was one of the greatest benefits in the affordable care act, the maximum out-of-pocket costs. if many people with chronic conditions, they find that they hit hair maximum out-of-pocket costs sometimes before they get to see specialists. that can for many people amount 20% of their annual income. it's an effective bar and discriminates against people with chronic conditions that are low-social-economic status. people are getting angry about that. the second point i want to make, finding a solution to this will not be easy. as we heard from the previous speakers, it start by
8:52 am
identifying value and looking at value from the perspective of people with chronic disease. we cannot simply address the cost of one item without looking at the entire health care ecosystem. medicines are hugely important part for all people in the system but we have to look at the entire ecosystem and collectively decide what is value and how are we going to promote value and we certainly cannot define value without the patient perspective, and that leads me to my third and final point, and that is is this, we continually inflate consumers and patient, we are part of the same stake holder community, we are on opposite ends of the spectrum. consumers go into the healthcare system, they use it as needed, typically for an acute care
8:53 am
incident. they go home to their families, jobs as if nothing happened. when you're diagnosed for a disease for which there's no effective treatment or one that's deadly or have a child who will whither and die before 18th birthday, you have an entirely different perspective on what value is and what innovation is. we have to include that perspective with all the other perspectives when we work through complicated issues. thank you. >> thank you, marc. bianca. >> thank you for hhs for having me here. i'm happy to be here. so kaiser recent polling on prescription drugs and prescription drug pricing really
8:54 am
stems from a question that we asked back in april and we asked about more than ten different health policy issues and whether they should be a priority for the congress and president moving forward. this is ten different topics, more than ten different topics coveraging a range of issues and policy. what we found that making sure that high-cost drugs were available with people with chronic conditions and affordable to those who need them. this ranked number one. ranked number one across parties. most americans were saying that this should be a priority for the president and congress moving forward. the other thing that ranked second was government access to lower prescription drug prices, again, these two items that were relate today prescription drugs came above a number of other health policy issues related to the aca and consumer protections like network protections or
8:55 am
increased transparency in health plans and that sort of thing. we just re-asked the question in our october tracking poll and we found similar results. most of what we are going to be talking about today stems from the polls done in april that drugs were coming up on the publics' priority. so what we found is that roughly three quarters of the population thinks that costs are unreasonable, but at the same time most say -- most who are taking drugs say that are having an easy time affording them. many of them have insurance that help protect them of some of the costs. and this is more of a problem for people with lower incomes or people who are in poor health or
8:56 am
those who are taking multiple drugs, so people who are taking three or four or more drugs are more likely to say that they're having a harder time affording their drugs. so i think one of the reasons that such a large share of the public can view the costs is unreasonable but then report, you know, that it's not personally an issue for them is really because the issue resinates very well with the public. it's one of the key ways that the public interacts with the healthcare system. nearly inch can say that they have taken a prescription drug in their lifetime. it's much larger than just, you know, when they're going to an office visit or those sorts of things. they see the cost of the drug on their bottle often times, so when you go to the farmy you can -- pharmacy you can see the price. one other thing that i want to
8:57 am
put out there. the high-share prescription drugs that's coming from those drugs, it's important to keep in mind that these drugs impact a relatively small share of the public and so what i'm talking about today is poll that we have done with the public at large and not particularly those who are with high prices. just in general, the public doesn't have the best view of the pharmaceutical industry. most really do like the products and think that the drugs that the companies are making have improved lives and make american lives better. i will leave it there for now and look forward to talking more. >> lisa. >> thank you. i am excited to be here representing consumers in the marketplace. consumer reports is an unbiased
8:58 am
organization whose mission to impower consumers in the marketplace. that's the entire context of my discussions today will be about what consumers experience when they're at the pharmacy counter specifically. kaiser's poll is fantastic and we have a separate poll of what people have experienced in the last year with their prescriptions. i want to share a few points about that because i think it's germane to this topic. we asked a nationally representative survey of american what they were experiencing in the last 12 months. they told us 30% of people told us, one out of three people who regularly take a prescription drug told us that they had seen their costs at the counter spike unexpectedly. what was interesting about that is that the average price that people paid extra than what they intended was $39. that doesn't sound like a lot
8:59 am
for me or you but people on fixed income, that could be pretty substantial. one out of ten people told us that their prices spiked by $100 or more which is outrageous. some people went ahead and filled the prescriptions and other people didn't realized that they should have shopped around. that's one of the reasons i want to talk about too. we are going to talk a lot about high-price specialty medications. consumer reports is focused on what americans take and their ability to afford them. because our polls have shown year after year that if people can't afford medications, they will do pretty dangerous things. they won't fill prescriptions like the way they are supposed to, they may not take medication as directed, they might split pills without asking doctors or farms -- pharmacists. because of high costs, they
9:00 am
scheduled doctor visits, they skipped prescriptions or tests. all of these things lead to potential worst health outcomes. and with that in mind, i want to say that i'm an editor of a program called best-buy drugs and what we have done in the last years is core through comparative effectiveness research and some of you may not be a health professional in the audience but that's when a drug is used against each other and see how safe and effective are compared with other agents. ..
9:01 am
it's usually both the change -- bulk of chain drugstores. you can get a prescription for about $10 for three month supply of which is fantastic. a lot of people don't realize that. the second piece of advice, for people who find they may have to
9:02 am
pay the entire cost other medication out of the pocket and there's a lot of reasons that can happen. it could be they are formularies have changed, the insurance is either not covering the drug at a high enough rate, could be the drug has been dropped. they may have high deductible insurance plans. also could be they've experienced an overnight what feels like an overnight spike in the price because the manufacturers taken advantage of a loophole that they found and drug abuse in have gone through the roof astronomically. if the consumer finds this situation is happening to them, you might not believe this but we tell people you may want to try negotiating with your pharmacist. you can negotiate for the price of drugs if you're paying out of pocket. we had secret shoppers call hundreds of pharmacists around the country pricing out a market basket of five drugs. one pharmacy was at a supermarket in des moines, iowa.
9:03 am
we called and asked what surprised for generic drug. they first told us it was $75. our secret shopper said i'm not going to use my insurance so can you give me a better price? the pharmacist came back and said how about $21? which is pretty good. great, thank you. the third point is, if you find yourself in this situation shop around because like heather pointed out, drug prices for the same drug, same strength even within the same zip code can vary dramatically. another good example is we priced out our secret shoppers generic symbol for. some of the larger chains give us a price of $220 for $190. they will take nobody pays these prices. that's sometimes true but not exactly true. then we called a couple
9:04 am
independent pharmacies, but the price and then we called cosco. instead thank you and $20, cosco offered it to us at $43 which is phenomenal. we were very happy. you are a couple of marketplace the gaps that we see. we agree on a lot of these issues. out of pocket maximum's would go a long way toward helping sort of bring more stability to the marketplace in addition to formularies that are more stable instead of being changed every 30 days, every 90 days. and more transparency. we want to see a much, how well they work, how safe they are and how much they cost. so thank you for having me. [applause] >> debra? >> thank you to secretary burwell and hhs for holding this important meeting. i'm here on behalf of 37 million aarp members and their families
9:05 am
who break out into a cold sweat every time they go to the counter to pay their drug costs. the cost of drugs as many of you have heard on this panel, many of you know from your own visit to the pharmacy, are going up and up and up. particularly the specialty drugs that are coming to market that you've heard about in the first panel. the costs are exorbitant. today we released a report by aarp that shows the average price in 2013 specialty drugs was over $53,000. $53,000 for the average price of a special -- specialty drug. let me put that into context. than beating income in the u.s. for household is just over $52,000. if we look at our members, social security, our medicare beneficiaries, we look at their median income is only 23, so
9:06 am
twice the cost of their annual income for the average especially good. if we look at just a social security check, i would like to point out that about $15,000 on average, that's three and a half times for one drug. now, that's a lot by any measure. but more importantly most of our beneficiaries and those of our older members are not just taking one drug. two-thirds of older americans are actually taking three or more drugs. when you multiply the cost of the drug by the number of prescriptions they have to fill, prices can be exorbitant. some will say that consumers don't pay the full price of the drug. but they do in one way or another. all consumers are paying for these drugs. importantly as you heard from heather, the skin in the game of copayment sometimes can break
9:07 am
your budget or even if we look at the new psc canines coming on onto market at about $15,000 a year, again, roughly equal to the average social secure check, and we calculate how much people are going to have to pay out of pocket, can be about $3000 in a year, a third of their social security checks. that's from one drug that they'll have to take every year. and importantly even if the people, if you personally are not taking a psck9s drug, you'll be paying for it through higher premiums and other ways that it affects the system. we know that in just 2016 the average price for part d plans are up 13%. and recent estimate said these psck9s will make everybody's premiums go up by over $124. that's a lot of money that we
9:08 am
will all be paying for one drug. now, it's not simply consumers complaining about the cost that they have. we heard a lot about people not taking the drugs that needed it. a recent study found that about 35% of voters have not filled the prescription because they couldn't afford to. while today's conversation is on medical innovation, and we fully support new treatments for chronic conditions, for major conditions, medical innovation is meaningless if nobody can afford it. importantly also we are going to talk about access and ways to control costs. i do want to also raise that as an issue. many insurance companies, many medicaid -- medicaid programs are pretty very high bars for people to get the treatment that they need.
9:09 am
some medicaid programs you have to have a liver biopsy in order to qualify to get certain drugs. in others there are other barriers. so we need to think not only about access and affordability together. finally, i just want to say that there ways to address cost. other countries are doing it far better than we are. if you look at the cost of drugs in the united states, many times they are 10 times, 100 times the cost of the people pay. a drug cost $84,000 in the united states, about $60,000 in the united kingdom, and $900 in egypt. the united states taxpayer should not bear the full cost of innovation and we should use the tools that we have and add additional tools in order to make sure that drugs are affordable at the all patients
9:10 am
have access to the need care a plus but. >> thank you very much. and thanks to all of you. so what we've heard really is affordability is issue number one for american consumers and patients. we heard that its number one or number two issue on the kaiser tracking polls. number one concern about the high cost, number two, we want the government to do something about it. we've heard that pricing is a particular issue that will take us around pricing. you mentioned, heather, having a single drug you're taking varies by a price that is twofold difference and just not understanding where that variation comes from. we've heard about the price spikes that increasingly patients are encountering. lisa, you said as they go to get drugs at the event of for quite sometime and see this rather large cost increases.
9:11 am
or receive the premiums in part d plans shooting of a 13% this year as a consequence. we have heard about this difficulty that varies plan designed poses for people, whether it's medicare, heather, and you said a catastrophic costs or even what's left of the donut hole if we get to the catastrophic costs, represents a real burden particularly on disabled americans who are not qualified for medicare as is true in your case. we heard from country, from the affordable care act funds the qualified health plans are as you put it front loading these a drug cost oath by virtue of high deductibles in these plans, people may be protected at the maximum out of pocket level but they hit these high drug costs right away and we know about the plans not only have high deductibles, they have separate deductibles on the medical side as well as the drug side that is
9:12 am
eating a lot of people. referred there are consequences to all of these things are not always in the best interest of the health of consumers, whether it's as you said, lisa, not filling prescriptions, skipping medications, skipping other forms of care, et cetera. yet you mentioned that are some tips and offered a few of those for consumers so they can avoid taking those draconian steps by way of shopping around the i love the notion of haggling like you're at a bazaar with your pharmacist. i'm sure you all try that over the weekend with your own pharmacist. but there are other approaches as well and social policy approaches that you mentioned some of those we may want to take into consideration. as all of you said these are particular issues for low income and elderly americans especially. especially elderly americans, many of whom want multiple chronic conditions and be a multiple drug. let's go back to some of the policy discussions that you all
9:13 am
have been various ways started to wade into. and heather let's start with you. dimension the patchwork of state and federal regulations that particularly affect people who are on medicare and disabled, and how that hurt people from place to place. it's not really going to be workable to attack these issues on a state-by-state level necessarily, but what do you think? what would be a policy agenda from the perspective as a patient who has seen this and who sees the issue, the inevitability that consumers are going to some skin in the game but we want to minimize the skin in the game beyond as you said your liver. >> what i see is it's time for some national regulation or legislation even. instead of, which was raised as an issue from what i understand when aca was being discussed and
9:14 am
developed by whatever happened to it was just too difficult an issue, talk of it getting in the weeds, so the left about to the states to execute. each state executes a deadly. i don't think there any two states that are a life. i ended up writing a bill that i copied from several states which bmay what i got my information from kaiser originally so i could start calling health insurers in different states to find out. but i can expect every person that's under 65 and disabled is going to have, feel good enough, number one, and secondly have the wherewithal to figure how to draft a bill and get it passed. now, of course, -- substitute state here. the other issue is of course that's all changed the law on health drafted a six-month window set when he became eligible you could not be medically underwritten. they did not ask you about your disease. what happens then with a quick
9:15 am
selling certain medigap plans of congress has now abolishing plan tough? i don't know what happens to people like me because we are not thought of and i know i would in the weeds here, so bear with me. i'm buying into a plan that's going away, they would not be selling anymore. that's fewer and fewer people in that plan. my premiums are going to skyrocket so there will come a time were i can no longer afford to buy that anti-back than 20% of the drug cost which could be as of right and other about $9800 a month. you begin to see it's not sustainable. none of it is. until we start look at some national framework and include those of us that are under 65 and disabled, i believe it's going to, you continue seeing a steady rise of bankruptcy from people like me. >> i want to ask you all about tips for consumers around
9:16 am
shopping around for health plans that will cover their drugs in a way that minimizes the pain, the out of pocket pain. aarp has been working for many years to assist consumers in choosing among part d plans which obviously is going to be necessary for consumers to do now more than ever as the premiums go up there and lisa, presumably to are offering some advise on that as well for people not just in part d but in health plans general. deb, let's start with you. >> you 'tis the season. >> every thanksgiving i sit down with my father in law, if that is the prescriptions and typing to see what the best plan is. because plan cost of change year to year in commitment and the cheapest plan last year and then going back and searching what other torture taking right now, what is the pharmacy using is really with important for consumers.
9:17 am
checking between different pharmacies is also really important. talking to your doctor about the number of drugs that you were on as well to make sure in many people have multiple doctors, multiple prescriptions. there are benefits within part d to make sure that we're on the right set of medications. to are things that consumers can do to a degree. again what i was trying to address in some of the larger structural cause of it underlying drug. shoppers can shop so much but if someone is taking a very expensive cancer drug that is the treatment for their condition, or it is not a part d drug, it is a part d drug with a really have no negotiating power. all of that falls away. >> i would add to that, one of the biggest mistakes that a consumer can make during the season is not taking any action.
9:18 am
unfortunately, a large portion of people assume the plan will remain the same and remain the same emphasi at this is to clici feel like employer plans where you get into a rhythm, you sign up every year, and you don't really look at the changing formularies. so the first, i really would underscore that consumers always at this time of year doublecheck the planet, doublecheck the cover the things they still, you needed to cover. the other thing in so doing is be very mindful of high deductible plans. a lot of employers have moved to these plans. that can be good in certain circumstances but for people who have a chronic condition or have a plan to surgery coming up or maybe start a family, these plans may not be the best for their needs if at all possible. it really does unfortunately turned into its the health care consumer. the shopping and the comparing is pretty critical. >> as we heard from the earlier
9:19 am
panel, a value-based insurance design might be one way that we can address affordability. as we heard there are some plans now that have moved in that direction and eliminated co-pays for very soluble drugs. for example, diabetes medications, if you have taken on a regular basis, cholesterol medications, et cetera. there's not a lot that out in the market today. what is your assessment and how could that market be stimulated and how can consumers help stimulate that market? >> the first thing would be really coming from the consumer standpoint, not having a co-pay is fantastic. it removes the barrier as a potential surprise as dan at the pharmacy counter being hit with a very high drug bill that you did not expect for something you take all that time. consumers as we've gone through many more consumers signing up
9:20 am
for a for health care act plan, many more people are covered and are coming into the pharmacy space. consumers will begin to be educated about come and i said like educated in quotes, they start to experience some of these strange issues of not having the kind of coverage of them hoping and not being covered as well as they had intended. i don't know if i can answer your question directly. what i can hope that consumers, outrage and frustration, and i think that's part what some of us are here to represent may be able to spur better plan designed and more consumer friendly plan designed that is focused on compliance and high value instead of just chasing bottom lines. >> i want to go to you and your points that in the kaiser tracking poll, people expressed the desire to see more government regulation of drug prices. did you drill down any further than that? do people really understand what they would like the government to do?
9:21 am
do they have policy been mined or do they just come is this an impulse we want somebody to do something? >> i think more of the latter at least in this point in the debate. we have asked more specifically about different approaches that policymakers may take to lower the price of prescription drugs. in general the public is largely supportive of these different approaches. some the things asked about were drug companies releasing information on how they set the prices, allowing medicare to directly negotiate for drug pricing, limiting the amount the drug companies can charge for high cost of drugs. importing drugs from canada. and then also we asked about reference pricing, encouraging people to try lower cost drugs. in general, eight of 10 in the public are in favor of these options. still has to their supportive of
9:22 am
it as the reference pricing option. so at this point it's still relatively early i think as this discussion is happening at least in this go around of the discussion. it's possible that they would be more differentiation in terms of what the public would prefer policymakers to do as the proposals are honed, as opponents come out with their objections, to whatever the proposals might be. and then just as the messages are developed or the policies are developed, the public might end up coalescing all a bit more about one option or the other. right now we see broad support for helping, help with this issue. >> marc, what about the membership of the national health council, your patient advocacy organization? where do they rate these of various alternatives or are they really at a consensus at this point on what might be done? >> the arctic issues we are
9:23 am
conflating here. let me address that question. i want to go back to point about us all agreeing on the cost of drugs being the primary issue because that's not the number one issue in the patient community. with respect to people with chronic conditions what they will tell you is don't like the fact that they're paying so much out of pocket to get their drugs but also see their doctors come to see the, to access their care. i think what you're hearing is there's a lot of agreement that plan design is not working. especially for people with high cost of treatment. i also want to recognize we have greater a set of incentives that compel plans to compete on trying to keep high-cost individuals out of their plan. we have not made the rules of the road granular in of so that plants can compete on value. i think that is part of what needs to be looked at the is a
9:24 am
lot of opportunity. if you look what happened to the co-ops in the affordable care act, a lot of them are going out of business because he tried to provide really good benefits but the risk the judgment -- adjustment didn't work. this opportunity to realign policies of access can be made affordable and we can have plans compete on value. that's a critically important issue. when we speak with patients they will often tell you that the cost is number one, and they don't like the price of the drug. very few actually understood what the price of the drug was that went to the plan but they got it. they don't have that information. what they really mean is i want access to the drug. those are two very different elements. the other point i want to me, going back to your earlier comment, for those people who have treatment, access is a huge issue in the marketplace and in most insurance products now.
9:25 am
especially if you're of a lower socioeconomic status. and even if you're just middle income. project to recognize, go to channel one of my board members, margaret was ahead this is the 21st century roundtable, we have between seven and 9000 diseases, only 500 have effective treatments. so the vast majority of people with chronic conditions, they want the treatment, or the what the treatment that they have to get better. that's the number one priority. for a lot of them they would love to have an expensive option. we are not at the point where science is moving to a place where we are developing a treatment that we've never seen before. it was pointed out before we have the first specialty product that is secure. there's huge opportunities come and for people with chronic condition that is a priority. how we make them affordable is also a priority.
9:26 am
but we have to look at the entire health care ecosystem and figure out as a society, are we going to pay for new innovation, and how are we going to make that accessible to all, not just the wealthy? >> that takes us right back to you, heather, because as you said quite powerfully the hope that our new drugs coming out that will continue your survival to enable your survival. as we heard from doug long earlier, the vast majority of cancer treatments going forward are going to be these targeted therapies, they will have high price of tags attached to them almost assuredly. how do we balance this desire, we all share it, for innovative, value driven drugs that will extend the lives but also have been the affordable? >> you are asking me that? >> you are here. >> right.
9:27 am
first of all on the other targeted therapy. i wish i was. i look forward to hopefully being around to be on 11 day but i do understand the balance that's needed and to look at it as i'm not sure that every drug, don'that we have have access to every single drug. this is from a patient perspective. unadjuvanted have access to every single drug out there, which is what americans seem to love. we want the drugs that will keep us alive two more weeks. i'm okay with not having a personally. that's my personal opinion. i want to see that the field moves forward and that if we are balancing affordability with access, that we have to have some give on the access the site. i'm willing to give that up in order to make treatment more affordable. that's from my personal perspective. >> do you think most patient groups are there on that point? >> this is the first time i've met heather and i really enjoyed listening to you speak. for the patient perspective
9:28 am
would issues were looking at is exactly that. the presenters order to they said there's $220 billion in low value or no value service. in some cases services that increase costs by creating other complications. for people with chronic conditions we often say they want access to everything. the reality is they don't want access to everything. what they want is access for what works for them. that requires us to move away from just treating people as the average, nobody is the average. most people have multiple chronic conditions. we have to look at how we drive treatments for that 20% that drives 70% of the cost or that 5% that drive 40-50% of the cost and build a system that is different. we need to be able to look at those people and say, we are going to spend the time with you to understand what is going on in your personal life. what are your goals and aspirations? they would look at the clinical
9:29 am
options available and we help them match the right options for the right person. that often means less care, less invasive care, enters great research that shows that you reduce costs and to improve outcomes. in fact, when you look at individuals, take two individuals with parkinson's. they are at the same stage of disease progression. they are both working. one person wants to ensure that nobody knows they have parkinson's. the other person wants to eliminate the tremors that are keeping him away and impacting his life with his spouse. those are two entirely different options and it requires two different treatments. our current system will give you the average age and may not get the one that is right for you. when you a line of the treatment with a personal circumstances and the goals of the individual, you'll often see less care. it's often better care and an opportunity to save money. so looking at how we get added
9:30 am
value in the system and how we align incentives to drive value, and i'm all for incentivizing plans to do this. and i am all for incentivizing biopharmaceutical companies to develop high-value treatments. we have to look at how we balance that. cmmi is doing this great project in chicago where there actually paying doctors to spend 90 or one in 20 minutes with high touch patients out of high-cost and align their care and coordinate it and eliminate the unnecessary waste. what they're finding is the of reducing costs and they're getting much better outcomes. we don't all need that, but for that five or 20% of the population that is driving the cost, we do. that creates real for high innovation that is going to have some cost per i think we have to recognize ther there's going toe
9:31 am
some cost. we have to make it affordable and we have to make sure it happens. because there are tens of millions of people in this country that are dying as a result of their diseases, and they want new and better treatments. >> want to come back to the question of what patient consumers, aarp members, et cetera, think should be done about all of this. deb, you mentioned a couple of approaches and, of course, on the first then we heard about a number more. we heard for example, about the role of competition, having drugs approved as rapidly as possible so that are competitive drugs in a particular class will help drive the price down. we have seen that phenomenon play out in the appetite is cedric. we heard about the whole approach of value-based payments involving and will have a whole panel discussion on that later this afternoon. deb come you mentioned somewhere regulatory approaches that other
9:32 am
countries undertake, particularly around reference pricing. give us a further sense. if you ask the aarp membership, they are not all policy experts but we take that as a stipulation, but what do people think as a meaningful set of approaches? >> i figured from the kaiser study, it's kind of throw the book at this problem. they are frustrated that they don't have the capacity of individuals to negotiate. so i think secretary burwell is a really smart cookie. she's got a great team behind him and behind that it is all of the medicare beneficiaries, although medicaid beneficiaries, schip. and i should be a powerful way to negotiate. but she is forbidden to do so. overcoming deprivation is one way. i think we need transparency on how prices are even developed.
9:33 am
people deserve the right to know how a drug is costed, how much was paid by taxpayers in research to develop better right now prices are set arbitrarily with no information. consumers don't have all the information they need even on comparative effectiveness. so we should make that transparency so you can see the value of traditional use of one drug over another drug, and understand the trade-offs for yourself but i also think, there's a whole list that market put out earlier today of different policy recommendations. all of these things together template a really important role. but right now we're doing very few of them in this country and we are paying the price. >> right. we do what you want to get opened us up to questions from those of you in the audience. we will try to get to a few more than were able to get to last
9:34 am
dime. again it would introduce yourself by name and affiliation and make her question to say, that would be terrific. >> we advocate for people living with hiv and hepatitis. really appreciate this panel to focus on the patient. i'd like to focus on the plan design. what we've been seeing for the same drug, some insurance companies are charging patients may be $15, $50, $100 co-pay but for the same drug other insurance companies are asking patients to pay 50% coinsurance, which we talked to some of these drugs could be a lot of money. would also say this in medicare as well. i guess i'm looking for the advice of the people who represent patients on this panel. what can we do? i know some states are putting co-pay max for patients.
9:35 am
we also it would be great if hhs would enforce nondiscrimination provisions of the affordable care act. take some actions against these plans. thank you. >> we talked a little bit about that. lisa, you want to expand on what may be done there as we continue to educate people about the need to shop around? >> the plan design that you described is come has been a key concern of my colleagues at the consumer union. advocates of the consumer union side have been very focused on this issue, particularly out of pocket limits. as we mentioned earlier and also sort of nondiscriminatory plan design. and enforcement are hhs needs to do. the only thing i can really say is supporting both of these issues. this is not fair. it's not surprising. many plans, you use a different rebate mechanisms as a tool for their business formulas. i think that's part of the
9:36 am
reason you see such, each plan design may treat that drug differently based on their own goals. i think both of those things are definitely the consumers union has been focused on. [inaudible] -- not around pricing but around these rebates. >> from a consumer standpoint, the consumer would not know or even understand or even most consumers are not aware that a rebate structure exist and that's why you end up with these strange anomalies like what you described. >> a lot of people don't understand -- part d plan which can make a huge difference in the amount they have to cost share and that the different drugs may be on different tiers. so it is very complex, and even with catastrophic caps, even in part d there's still payments about those catastrophic caps for some of these specialty
9:37 am
drugs. the amount of protection that individuals and consumers have in the private market and even in the medicare marketplace can vary greatly based on each drug. >> two quick thoughts. one, your absolute right. it is fundamentally discriminating against people with chronic conditions, particularly those of low socioeconomic status. i think we have to recognize that. i think we have to recognize that the plans have been put into place with rules that are not granular enough for them to compete on value. we have to work with the plans to help them solve the problem that they are in, in order to eliminate these issues. i completely support starting out the cost of out of pocket cost across months, putting caps on out of pocket costs. at the end of the day it's good to great pressure to great of the mechanism that get at this. we've got to be a way to work with the plans to figure out how we can set the rules of the road so that they can compete on
9:38 am
value, rather than on excluding high-cost patients. >> i do want to quickly come back to this, what karl said, particularly in the case of california. we have a $200 cap now on drug copayments. there's some concern that that will take the pressure off doing anything about the fundamental pricing of drugs, possibly protect consumers but it doesn't get of the larger pricing issues. deb speak with i think they are both key issue. the issue for the consumer how much they can afford but the underlying price of drugs which is what i was trying to make, extensive points today are really an issue that we have to get because even if the individuals co-pay is capped, the cost of those drugs are sure to drugs throughout the whole system. they may save on a co-pay but they will see their part d premiums across the entire population increase over time. we have to get at prices.
9:39 am
>> i'm an oncologist at the mayo clinic. i represent the 118 oncologists who wrote and article in the mayo clinic protesting the high cost of cancer drugs. very often i feel like very discouraged and want to give up the fight because i'm busy doing research. except when i see patients like you, heather, that this is what makes the fight to and i think we really need to ask the question, why do we need to reinvent the wheel? almost all western countries allow appreciation of prices around value. there are systems in place to we don't have to do that. the first thing we need is metaclass able to negotiate price. [applause] -- medicare able to negotiate price. >> i think i was a hugely important article that you and your company on thursday because you ask the fundamental question, what is the value of these individual drugs? and you also told the stories of
9:40 am
what happens to patients and their families who do everything to pay for those drugs are i think that's a conversation that we widely me down and wait to get the issue of prices on the table, and the issue of value. i think you and your co-authors for doing that. >> just at what the public things about that issue. i will reiterate there is broad support for medicare negotiating drug pricing. it is something we've asked about overtime and there has been broad support for that for quite some time now. >> dana during from america's health insurance plans. an excellent discussion focused on price and access, the important question for marc. you mentioned the out of pocket macs in the affordable care act. very important consumer protection that didn't exist before 2014. you mentioned also the problems with regard to coinsurance,
9:41 am
particularly those furlough socioeconomics status. but i think you left out the cost-sharing production subsidy which is also an important part of the statute. we have an issue brief out that we have on a website today that does the simple math. so if you're at one of her -- 150% of poverty and receiving a subsidy involved in a silver plan, we look at a drug for hepatitis c which has a price tag of about $95,000, that person would low socioeconomic status is paying less than 1% of the cost of the drug. the health plan is paying over 99%. so i have to ask you, what's the problem? is the cost-sharing or as deb says, the price? if you truly believe that the cost-sharing production subsidies are not sufficient, then isn't the appropriate policy the most efficient policy to increase the cost-sharing production subsidies?
9:42 am
because higher income people can buy platinum or gold plan which has a much lower out of pocket cost. >> so i agree with much of what you said, but i would put in this context. so we did an analysis when the marketplaces opened up, and one of the very specific examples we did was a woman and the district of columbia who had heart disease and she had rheumatoid arthritis. she was working above minimum wage full-time, eligible for cost subsidies for her premium, if you got got to the right silver plan which is very challenging for a lot of people because they don't understand that, but if she got to the right silver plan she was also eligible for subsidies in or out of pocket cost. for that individual she was going to pay almost 20% of her annual income in out of pocket costs over the course of the year. and depending on the plan she selected, it might be in the
9:43 am
first two months of the plan. i completely agree. i think the cost-sharing mechanisms are not working as effectively as we would like. i also agree with you that if she had hepatitis c and was receiving the drug, the insurance company would have picked up a substantial part of that cost. i'm not here to say that the plans are doing anything wrong or what i said earlier i completely stand by this, that plans are acting completely rationally within the rules of the game. what i think we need to do is work with you to alleviate some of the pressures that are on the plans so that they can provide affordable coverage, that is not impacted by social economic status and that really allows you to compete on value. i know about the plans want to do that. we had to chief medical officers -- chief medical officers nominate themselves to be on our ward because they want to work with us on these issues and i want to work with you on these issues as well.
9:44 am
>> let me quickly ask bands proposal that the cost-sharing subsidies be increased in the affordable care act to plans. given that the majority of americans still don't like the affordable care act. the kaiser polls show that and, of course, we know plenty of people out there want to kill the entire law. how would that kind of thing fly? what is your sense of american consumers would respond to that at this point? >> while we receive will depend on the law is pretty divided over all, obviously that varies greatly depend on whether you're a democrat or republican, but we do find that the public likes the different provisions of the law. when you break it down in asking about subsidies, about the medicaid expansion, about preventive care, different provisions of the law, majorities do like what is in the law.
9:45 am
they don't like the individual mandates, that's the one exception we find always when we ask. the public is divided on the law overall if you do like it better. >> i do want to say it's kind of seeming obvious it's one more baby. i heard it once, if we just keep putting these caps on and we're not deal with the issue. it's just another bank if we keep subsidies. so shouldn't we get to what the root of the problem is? before which is, i feel like i've been part of the problem by creating babies. maybe we need to back up and say that's a good help us figure out how much these drugs cause. i want to know as a consumer if the drugs i'm on now that the 98 i don't a month, how much of it is because of the r&d that went to develop and innovate. the drug is the around the drug is been around for a double the dosage and got more effective. i want to understand how much does it cost?
9:46 am
my costs are likely off of your actual. much higher. the minimum i paid is four times higher than actual on the average spent what is the drug? >> should i really say it was is anybody from astrazeneca in the audience of? [laughter] its -- soundtrack. >> thank you for that question. [inaudible] [inaudible]
9:47 am
>> so since we're having some microphone problems, there's a considerable amount of transparency on the health plan side. i think this point would lead addressing more of a lack of transparency on the pricing side for drugs. [inaudible] >> i will restate your question if we need to. >> i have worked for the foundation. >> this is alan. [inaudible]
9:48 am
[inaudible] [inaudible] [inaudible]
9:49 am
>> we're talking about 10% of the total spend, and for special to get it is a smaller percentage so it is an important issue. on have of the patients we serve them struggle with the myriad of calls that are at health care system, not just drug, there's a lot of support for patients for their drugs in that marketplace, what else is being done and look out across the cost spectrum? >> of course the broader point is that we do waste a lot of money elsewhere in the health care system, and we also impose costs on consumers because of that. if we were to gain some of that money back we could potentially afford to spend money on some of these very innovative treatments that are in the pipeline as we heard earlier. marc, how do you members approach that larger question? >> that's one of the points i tried to make at the beginning. i think you are correct. we have to look at the entire
9:50 am
health ecosystem. we tend to think of the innovation ecosystem as separate and in the delivery system is something else. the reality is it's all intertwined. implementation perspective it's vacuum that could cost that ultimately prevents many people from actually getting care -- cumulative. one of the questions we talk about is what is impact on the family budget? for a lot of people in the lower socioeconomic status there is the impact because they never feel that first prescription. they never see that specialist. that is not acceptable. we have to look at the entire system and then define what value is and then go and create incentives and levers to drive value. but in many cases that's going the high value products they may be high-value surgical intervention. it may be delivery designs would you really help those people with complex chronic conditions who are falling through the cracks, not getting the services they need.
9:51 am
if we simply look at each issue in isolation, we are leaving a lot out the opportunity on the table. and i go back to something i said earlier. all the estimates are there $220 billion in waste. the vast majority of that is spent on the 30% of the population, a population we represent, chronic disease and disabilities, by providing content that is completely unaligned with her personal circumstances and their goals and aspirations. there's huge opportunities to drive waste down if we think about this. there are huge opportunities to drive high-value intervention and also opportunity to drive costs down. we have to look at it as a package. >> each of you, let us suppose for a moment, has been named to a newly created patient and family task force on biopharmaceuticals. you each get to make one important recommendation to the
9:52 am
president, to policymakers, to the u.s. congress. you have a limited amount of time. let's call it twitter length recommendation to about 140 characters or slightly more. deb, start with you. what is the number one recommendation you would make in that situation? >> both price and access to innovative treatments. >> and specifically how? i will give you a second. >> secretary lew negotiation, price transparent, more value information of both consumers and mayors. >> lisa. >> i would say more focus on comparative effectiveness study. we've been very clear understanding of how well these medications work against comparative other appropriate treatments. and in that make sure that all the data is actually released so
9:53 am
that we can see a more clear picture of what's going on. >> and presumably i will give you a second tweet. that's the standard out search research institute, the one the plans and others are undertaken. who else has to be in that? >> it's got to be art, other practice it is, past the a large well funded network dedicated to these issues, and very clear in their communications when they do come out and make sure everything is there. >> just about the publicly doesn't see this as a priority, and particularly making sure that people who need high cost of drugs, that they're unavailable to those people. they think it's a tired even if they personally are not facing some of the cost burdens themselves. i would reiterate the point earlier that prescription drugs are one piece of that health care costs basel. we've seen it in our polling
9:54 am
with similar shared things that deductibles and premiums are burdens for the muzzle. >> not just on the drug site. marc? >> drive innovation, balance appropriate access that is aligned with patient goals and preferences and personal circumstances. and i would emphasize a point i don't think has been stressed your we have to fund our biomedical research enterprise at nih. our regular toward science at fda, our comparative effectiveness research, our patient centered outcomes research, here we are at a point in time where we are driving patients into consumers. they are now looking at the world in a very different way. technology is disrupting it. we need information so that people can make informed decisions and take the treatments that are correct for them. that is a very different
9:55 am
environment that we are shifting to. >> and heather, last word to you've spent i think i will just tell that something one of the panel said earlier. innovation is meaningless if nobody can afford it. so think about it. i can come up represent middle-class. i'm not represented low income recipients. i represent and if you that's work for the company. i spent a quick and easy. i did not have my platinum federal employee and don't have the platinum health care. it's a struggle. it's really a struggle to pay for these treatments and to stay on top of everything that's happened i'm not talking medical innovation i'm talking about plan changes that i found out that my trigger would only be covered, no co-pay if i went to a, i circumvented which are private oncology office, not a cancer center will into my treatment and there were not any in my state. none, zero. submit my co-pay jumped from zero to 300 a month.
9:56 am
those are the kinds of things that you constantly try to stay in front of when you're a patient. and again i could be any of you. >> right. well, that concludes our morning session. we were going to take a one hour break now for lunch it as a reminder you are not permitted to move around the building on your own. if you do want to purchase lunch in the cafeteria on the top floor, please go to the registration table to find an escort. as you know the number of express lunch options located by the federal center southwest station which is outside into the left. we are going to we can probably add 1245 you. join me for civil and thinking this whole panel and wishing heather all the best in your treatment. thank you. [applause] >> congress is currently in recess for the thanksgiving holiday. both chambers return november 30 with 2 major items on the agenda. the first time a bill to fund
9:57 am
highway and mass transit projects beyond december 4. and we from that date congress most stack onto measure to avoid a potential strike at the you can fall the house live on c-span and the senate live here on c-span2. >> c-span is the best access to congress with live coverage of the house on c-span innocent on c-span2. over thanksgiving watch our conversation with six freshmen members of congress thursday at 10 a.m. eastern.
9:58 am
>> john hinckley of course was the person who shot president reagan and president reagan was not wearing a bulletproof vest that day. it was a short trip in the white house. john hinckley was stalking jimmy carter before this. >> sunday, author of the book assassinations, threats and the american presidency talks about various assassination attempts and physical threats made against presidents and presidential candidates throughout american history spent there's been 16 presence of this assassination threats although not directly since ronald reagan but 16 presidents.
9:59 am
i also cover three presidential candidates i talk about huey long who in 1935 was assassinated. and to talk about robert keiner did in 1968 he was assassinated, and george wallace who was shot and paralyzed for life in 1972. so i cover candidates as well as presidents. and it's a long list. >> sunday night at eight eastern and pacific on c-span's q&a. >> and out data security and technology policy specialist from the department of homeland security and justice along with representatives of amazon and google talk about what information is being collected about you online and have it is being used. town hall seattle hosted this event. >> good evening. as you just heard my name is ira rubinstein or is my pleasure to welcome you to tonight's town hall event.
10:00 am
the topic of tonight's discussion is how technology impacts civil liberties. the topic that tackle in my own work at nyu law school and in my role as a member of the board of directors. our most basic civil liberties our freedom of thought. that is the freedom to explore come investigate, longer, read about and talk about and write about new ideas. including ideas that are unpopular or controversial. ..
10:01 am
>> in light of these and other new technologies, we clearly need open public discourse on how technology impacts our daily lives and our civil hinters. i'd like to -- civil liberties. i'd like to thank town hall seattle, it's a model i'd love to see in more cities across america. the center for democracy and technology is a perfect partner in this endeavor. cdt, in my completely unbiased opinion as a board member -- [laughter] is the leading nonprofit advocacy organization translating our democratic values. you'll get a chance to hear from cdt's president, and what impresses me is her ability to find workable solutions in the highly partisan and often combative policy landscape of washington d.c.
10:02 am
nita and cdt recognize that discourse must include citizens, the government and the business sector. before i introduce your moderator for tonight and turn the program over to our incredibly distinguished group of panelists, i want to address one issue i believe is among the most important as we consider the impact of technology on our core civil liberties, and that is the issue of voter privacy. it is now common place for political campaigns to assemble and maintain extraordinarily detaileds doiers on -- dossiers on every political voter. not surprisingly, some of this information is derived from voter registration records, but campaigns also buy millions of personal data, and campaign web sites and social media channels use cookies and other tracking methods to profileç their supporters. did you know that in the last
10:03 am
presidential election both campaigns hired marketing firms to help them match cookie pools? in order to identify the most persuadable voters and send them targeted ads any way they might show up, on the web, or that the obama technical team developed a social outreach to program known as targeted sharing that matched political data with facebook profiles so that supporters could persuade their friends to volt for obama. many americans might be shocked to learn how candidates target them without their knowledge or consent. in my own work, i've raised two fundamental questions about these campaign practices. first is profifing and microtargetting of american voters invade their personal private. second, how do these new practices affect democracy. many political observers note
10:04 am
that privacy understood as a legally protected zone in which individuals can think their own thoughts, have their own secrets, live their own lives ask and reveal only what they want to to the outside world is vital to the working of the democratic process. so what happens to democracy when campaigns routinely invade the zone by subjecting voters to a form of political surveillance in which their beliefs and preferences are monitored and tracked. this is one of many profound questions we need to address in thinking about the implications of new technologies from those fundamental civil liberties. i can name other troubling issues we should also consider ranging from discriminatory credit insurance and hiring practices premised on the surreptitious collection of data and the use of data analytics to so-called predictive policing. minority report police departments now identify and stop suspects based less on
10:05 am
specific information and observation, about individual conduct at a particular time and place and more on algorithms that reveal patearns of an immeant -- patterns of an imminent or future be conduct. but i will lee it to tonight's panel to take this discussion forward. it is my pleasure to introduce jenny during kin and also ask the panel to come up and be seated while i complete the introductions. a washington native and a graduate of gw law school served as the united states attorney for the western district of washington from october 2009 through september 2014. in this role, jenny was the chief federal law enforcement officer for western washington, responsible for civil litigation and criminal prosecutions as well as coordination of area's federal investigative agencies. she shared work groups charged with crafting national policies
10:06 am
and investigative strategies for cyber crime, intellectual property enforcement and consumer privacy. her leadership for the doj on these fronts include testifying before congress on national cyber issues. since leaving this post, jenny has continued to practice law as a partner in the washington, d.c. office of quinn emanuel. please join me in welcoming jenny durkin. [applause] >> thank you very much. and thank you, ira, for the great introduction but mostly for your leadership in this space. you have a true leader nationally on many of these issues, and we're not going to be tracking you all night. [laughter] just most of the night. what a great pleasure it is to be at town hall, i think this is one of the best forums for people to come together and talk about what matters to them, and i couldn't be more honored to have been asked to moderate this forum on one of the most critical issues we face as a
10:07 am
society. i think the intersection of technology in all parts of our lives is going to raise fundamental questions about what role privacy plays in our lives and what is important to protect. and i can't think of a better panel to do this with. to my immediate right is ryan callo. ryan is a professor at the university of washington law school. he comes by way of stanford and is probably one of the leading people in the areas of privacy but also in robotics. and in just an exceptional thought thinker. when i was u.s. attorney and i wanted to turn to who the people i looked to this academia to figure out some of those complicated questions, i would regularly have ryan on my speed dial so, ryan, thank you for being here. [applause] and we are really lucky to have raquel russell. she was one of the critical people in president obama's
10:08 am
domestic policy shop really focusing on urban issue. when i had the good fortune to travel back and forth between seattle and d.c. at doj, whenever there was an issue related to one of these, people would say, you know, there's this woman in the white house who could really help you. she's now at zillow, and we are really fortunate to have her, because she really can look at the policy implications around these issues. [applause] >> and the woman who we could spend a lot of time introducing, nuala o'connor, has accomplished so much, and be you would think she's got to be 80. [laughter] she has, she has really crafted -- she's now president and ceo of cdt and has really taken it to the next natural iteration to be a real thought leader in one of those places where all people can sit at the table and decide what's the right policy initiatives to undertake in these areas. she's got great experience at one of our great companies here,
10:09 am
amazon, and worked at ge, and she took her experience from that sector and applied it -- worked with, also, the department of homeland security, so she has seen the range of issues. cdt really is one of those places that when we needed -- i was on a number of interagency panels in washington x we were trying to decide how do we broker some of these tough issues in terms of what technology should have for the government to intercept and the like, no one could even talk to each other on these issues, and cdt plays a critical role in letting people broker some of these things but having a real vision on the importance of technology so, nuala, thank you for being here. [applause] so we're going to, hopefully, this will be kind of a conversation style, but we're going to kick it off, i'm going to be asking different questions, bouncing back and forth. we're going to reserve some time at the end to take questions from the audience. we know it's warm here tonight,
10:10 am
thank you for being here, and we really hope it'll be a fun things. it's not jeopardy, i don't get to have the music, but we will do, first, a lightning round. so i'm going to ask each of the panelists to name what they think is the most exciting new technology and then also to say whether they think the biggest threat to privacy is coming from government or from private enterprise. so, ryan, let's start with what's the most exciting new technology. >> well, you wouldn't be surprised to hear that i think robotics is the next exciting technology. [laughter] just briefly my reason for that. if you think about the current technology of our time, the internet, right? and you think about how the internet came to be so dominant, think of its history. there was the arpi net which was a u.s. military initiative that ended up funding the initial internet, and then it was a public/private partnership with
10:11 am
and so forth. and now that very same group of people have moved over from aarpa to darpa and are investing heavily in robot you cans. i think a lot of companies do agree with me right now. >> raquel, how about you? >> i don't know if i could pick a specific technology, but one that i'm fascinated by is just the quick advancement of social media generally. i mean, facebook feels like it just started, you know, a year ago, a link of an eye, and now we have snapchat and periscope and just the way the newer generations are using these social media platforms to connect, i think, is a fascinating thing. and it's happening so quickly, it's kind of hard to keep track of. >> nuala. >> so at cdt, we're interested in technology in your daily life, i'm going to pick an actual device. as a single working mother with three young children, my hands are full. i wanted to set a timer for
10:12 am
something i was cooking, and i thought you know what i really mean? i really need my amazon echo. thank you very much. and i should just say in my completely unbiased opinion, i have a little bias having worked on the project when i was there. but it's the the colonel of your star trek computer for your health. that is our vision. my vision for technology is a positive one that we will move towards the world of equality and integration and tolerance, fueled and supported by technology that supports democratic values, but in a more literal level, i love this device. it's a great home manager, it can tell me anything, it talks to me. at least there's someone at home who will listen to me now -- [laughter] never happened before, right? so i'm a big fan, and i commend to you the privacy policies. i had a little something to do with this as well. >> that's great. i will say i think the thing that has changed my life most recently is the starbucks app
10:13 am
where you can order it and just pick it up. it's critical to survival. [laughter] what -- i'm going to skip, i said i'd talk about the government versus -- but let's first talk, nuala, what is many your mind the biggest single thing -- and this is lightning round, so you get to do more later -- what has the biggest potential to erode our privacy withoutous knowing snit. >> you mean any technology, device? it's the creeping presumption that all of your data should be easily accessible by your government, state, local, federal. the sense, again, i've worked on in this issue of the tingal self, that one -- digital self, that one has boundaries. you and your institutions, religious, educational, governmental. and i believe we have gone too far in the balance of power between the self and the state. and so my biggest concern -- and, yes, we have real concerns about governments and companies,
10:14 am
and we can talk all about them, but i believe this eroding of the sense of a clear boundary around my digital self in relationship to my government is very concerning to me. and if you look at the history, again, of list making, of governments kind of knowing who you are and what you are and what you're thinking, i need to have a safe and secret space. and that includes my space online where i am free to think and associate and express myself without assuming that that will all end up in the hands of the government. >> raquel, what do you think? >> so i'm going to piggyback on that a little bit and just tweak it some. for me, i think, it kind of ties back to my first response around social media is the culture shift that's happening of what is okay to be shared and what is not okay to be shared, you know? everyone's baseline of privacy is constantly shifting, and it's shifting at a very high rate at this point. and to to me, i think -- and so to me, i think as that baseline
10:15 am
shifts, will policy be able to keep up with that cultural shift. >> ryan? >> mine's much more pedestrian. i actually think that facial recognition changes everything. i mean, i don't know if you guys noticed, but i took a flash photo of you, and i apologize for that, and i'm going to tweet it later and say here we are at the town hall. now facebook has technology that can recognize your face even if it's obscured, suddenly now whether it's the corporation or government can scour the entire internet and also private databases and just find you, find you where you are even if you yourself did not upload anything, even if you took pains to obscure your face. i think that's a real sea change, and i think facial recognition is a big, big deal. that's something cdt's worked on quite a lot. >> that's great. great segway to the last question of the lightning round. we talk about, and i think it's important about the surrender of
10:16 am
self to government and what's that balance. i was on a panel once with brad smith when i was still united states attorney, and i said look, brad, you just want us to have to buy it from you. so what's the bigger threat really to personal privacy? is it the information that government is collecting, or is the information that every device you collect which gets aggregated the larger threat right now? ryan, i'm going to start with you. >> i think that the classic arguments for why government's the bigger threat are two. one is that the government has a monopoly on violence, right? no matter what facebook might do to you, turns out they can't really throw you in jail, and they certainly can't kill you. and so the question, you know -- but i wonder if that's, at the end of the day, really not disingenuous, but is it a full enough answer, right? corporations can make decisions that affect your life in increment always, and so it's
10:17 am
conceivable. the second argument is at least governments has a sort of mercurial sort of mixed incentive, not totally sure how they're going to do things is and maybe things differently in a new regime. i actually personally don't know be which is the greatest threat. >> well, i will say selfishly as someone who was a government employee for over ten years and with the data breach that just recently happened for many government employees, i would have to say the government. it's really scary to think, they have so much information on me personally given the jobs that i had and the information i had to provide in order to get those jobs. and, you know, for all those government employees whose information was stolen, i mean, that's a scary thing. >> nuala? >> so i'm going to share my age at 85 and say i've been privacy
10:18 am
officer at two major companies, and the answer without a doubt to me is the federal government. but let me tell you why, and i think you're right, ryan. we've all talked about it for a long time. i was doing some deeper thinking knowing you were going to ask this question earlier today, and the flip pant answer i always give is, well, because the government can put you in jail as ryan points out. and assets and access to services, etc. and that your recourse in voting against a government activity on data or privacy is to vote with your feet and change countries which to me seems like a very draconian response to that sort of thing. your answer in voting against a particular company practice is to not do business that company. but there's another answer as well which i hadn't thought of before, and that is company -- and good companies are doing hard work on this issue, lots of companies are not, and the answer to that is there's a government backstop. so when there's an outlier or
10:19 am
misbehavior by a company, there is the ftc in this country, there are the state attorney generals. 21 class actions and an ftc investigation for a data merger that actually never happened, so i'm pretty confident that we have good enforcement in this country, and i certainly know better than the rest of the world. so there's company and market forces and customer distrust or, you know, concern, but then there's government backstops and legal action that can be taken to protest a company, a behavior. but again, i really do go to the deprivation of rights and liberties. that is not to say to minimize, you're absolutely right, ryan, the opportunity for hidden decision making and the opportunities cost and lost by a consumer not knowing about data that is presented to them is very real, and those are some of the issues we're working on at cdt. >> just add something by way of support. another thing you have to remember is companies can make
10:20 am
promises to you about your privacy. they're not going to do x, y and z, right? and if they do x, y and z that they said they wouldn't, the federal trade commission or someone else can come in and enforce that. if that, however, is we're not going to give your information to the government which some companies say, like, we're going to push back, if they don't do that, right? if they don't full be pill that promise, the -- fulfill that promise, the government's not going to police against it. >> of course. >> they're going to be like i guess we're going to give it to the doj. the ftc is not going to enforce against itself. so that's just adding a little bit -- >> and just to build on that, you can see we're going to be in violent agreement all night long, i'm very sorry about that, we should mix it up, and we probably will. but the opportunity for an individual, again, to correct that wrong or to complain about that, it's very, very hard to make that case to the government, as you point out,
10:21 am
when they've got the data, and it's not known and not transparent. i also was a victim of the opm breach as many of us were, but that is, to me, the compelling issue in the space is the one of government data collection because it impacts both your relationship directly to the government and your relationship directly to the companies. and it's the bleeding or the blurring of the line, the potential lack of clarity or lack of boundaries between private sector data sets that were collected mostly with your knowledge. and that would be a big theme, i would say, in our direct to company advocacy is transparency, accountability, data minimization, knowing what you're collecting and is it relevant to your relationship with the company. but it's the blurring of the lines that really erodes trust in not only the government, but the companies as well. and so that issue of government data collection erodes the whole ecosystem of the internet and trust in my ability -- again, not only to transact with companies, but to speak my mind. >> you know, i'm going to moderate and jump in a little bit. [laughter] >> bring it.
10:22 am
>> you know, i think when i was u.s. attorney, you know, so for five years i was the chief federal law enforcement officer and, obviously, government used its powers it could to collect information in the criminal setting. i really believe that the generation coming up is being, is different, as raquel says, from my generation in a number of ways and for a number of reasons. but i think that they are being conditioned from every angle to not care about privacy. be and to think privacy doesn't matter. and i actually think that that is due mostly to the monetization of the lack of privacy. and that's where i think maybe it's not the actual collection of privacy, although we'll talk about that later, that i think there are a lot of dangers, but it's the constant mantra of privacy doesn't matter. and, you know, we're going to talk about in a little bit, but i think if you -- everyone sitting on this panel knows people don't read the privacy policies before they click "i
10:23 am
agree." it's not transparent. and so i think that educated person, you know, it's from the days of right, you know, in the '50s when there were contracts of adhesion and they changed it, you know, you can't have the small print. i think we're going to see an evolution of that as well. government has to be circumscribed. it's part of who we are, i think we always have to fight that battle. but i think we also have to keep an eye on what is private industry doing, what can they do and what should they do. so we've talked a lot about interconnectedness. you know, you drive up to a toll booth, you've got your automatic pass, you drive across thexd 520 bridge, it automatically sends something, then it automatically sends to your bank. everything is connected. it is more difficult to do things today, to not leave a digital trace. and so segway is, you know, do consumers really understand what information is being collected about them? nuala. >> no. and i never want to be the voice on any panel that says, you
10:24 am
know, the consumer is not knowledgeable or whatever. i think it's almost hard to keep up with the level of technological advancement. but i am, i am more hopeful. i'm still, despite what i've seen both in government and the private sector, i'm still the most hopeful voice on this panel, i believe, for a number of reasons. i believe there are great people both in the government and the private sector who are trying to get this right. i believe there are good companies that when simply sparking the dialogue about customer expectation and customer trust are doing the right thing, trying to get this right. having written more policies than anybody in this room, i am the mark twain or the faulkner, i don't know what author of privacy policy that no one's ever read, that's no longer the way. but this is not to say that privacy is dead or the fair information practice principles or the tenets in this country and others are dead. i'm going to go back to my
10:25 am
amazon echo example because i'm so proud of it, again, having worked on it -- [laughter] can you tell? i can't name it. it's the only -- [inaudible] nevertheless, i want to call it, anyway, something inappropriate fori] this audience, right? i want to have it a name like my personal assistant. anyway, but that device has privacy protections not only built into the hardware and software of the programming, but literally in the device. it lights up when it's listening. it circles when it's actively listening and collecting data. there are other ways to signify, i'm very much into kind of the nonverbal cues. look at the airport signs that say baggage. i was just pointing this out to my 5-year-old as i left the washington, d.c. airport yet. he can't quite realize yet. the same rules apply in the connected rule, we can no longer rely on 14-page privacy policies stuck in the back of a web site
10:26 am
or those papers that you get from your bank in the mail once a year? does anybody read those? nobody does, i don't even read them. having visual cues embedded in the device, these are exciting opportunities. and let me just pause and say we need to talk about the age thing because i do not agree with conventional wisdom that young people today don't care about privacy. >> so i'm going to jump on that and say i completely agree with that last statement you made. i think that people and consumers do know the data that is being, you know, that they're giving up. i mean, how can you not when you're on gmail, you get targeted advertising based on an e-mail you sent, like, four hours ago. you know there's data being collected and used. maybe we don't know the extent of it as the average consumer, but i think we do know. i think for many consumers, especially the younger generations including myself, you know, we weigh the pros and cons and the ease that technology brings to my life outweighs the fact that, like,
10:27 am
you're collecting some data on me. and that's just the facts. that's the facts for myself and for many of my friends and my peers, is that the ease, you know, those technologies bring completely outweigh the fact that -- i'm not 100% convinced, nor have i ever done any kind of due diligence to make sure all that information i'm going to turbotax is going to be safe, but i'd rather do that than fill it out by paper and pen, so i do. >> ryan, what do you think? >> i mean, i get beat up a lot on the question of whether notice work withs, like privacy disclosures. so i wrote a paper a few years ago that's called against notice skepticism in privacy and elsewhere -- >> that's the short version of the title. [laughter] >> that's the short version of the title. there's a colon -- [laughter] and i argue that we should be doing more of what nuala said, more of what i call visceral notice where it's built into the very product like, apparently,
10:28 am
it is in echo. i think there's a lot of opportunity for that. i also think there's a lot of opportunity to have a privacy disclosure for the more sophisticated entity that is actually very full. so for the cdts, for the ftc, for the journalists and then have more visceral motives for -- so i think we should be kind of tracking, true track notice. and but i will say at the end of the day, and i hope we talk about this more, it's really about asymmetry. you know, it's about the fact that the company knows an unbelievable amount about you, and you don't know hardly anything really about them. and, in fact, there's not only information asymmetry, but there's an asymmetry about the asymmetry. that is to say they know that they know a lot more than you, and you can't even begin to scope how much more they know about you, right? and that asymmetry matters. and i want to talk more about that. but i'm similarly sort of
10:29 am
hopeful about the potential of smart design to convey information. >> and how much do we leave to market and how much do we step in and have laws? i mean, i think that's always a balanced tension, but at what point should consumers have some absolute right to know, for example, what has been collected, what's been aggregated to be able to look at it and to be able to edit it? what do you think, ryan? >> well, i mean, you know, i certainly agree with commissioner brill at the federal trade commission that consumers should have much more access and understanding to their information in the hands of data brokers. and i totally commend you to her speeches about the reclaim your name initiative. and she's sort of using a mixture of her position as a regulator with a megaphone but also sort of hinting at the idea that if we don't get these kinds
10:30 am
of ability to access and correct your data, that perhaps at some point the federal trade commission will come along and do something about it. in other words, you know, a lot of i think competition around privacy happens against a backdrop of the threat of regulation. so it's very difficult to say precisely what the effective regulation is because it's both the actual acts of regulation, you know, the people get slapped on the wrist, and it's also the possibility of that and the backdrop of that and the people who have regulatory authority who in turn have soft power because of that regulatory authority. that didn't at all answer your question, but i'm glad i said it. [laughter] >> we're here to talk, not answer questions. >> so i do think there needs to be checks and balances. i don't know that we can rely solely on government. i think that -- and i think nuala and jenny would agree with me here. government does not move as fast as technology, and so if we rely
10:31 am
on government to create policies in order to protect our privacy, especially in the technology space, i just don't see how that works and that jibes. the technology is constantly changing, and i just don't see how policy's going to keep up with that to the full degree. i don't know that we can rely wholly on policy and government in order to protect our privacy. i'm a believer, and maybe it's the idealist in me, that, you know, education is key in this, right? and i think that we may educate consumers on the privacy, the data that is being collected on them and consider the privacy infringements, and they may choose to be like, that's okay. and i think that to some degree the market will have to play that role in it. i mean, i think there's going to be some checks and balances there. i don't think that every -- i don't think that all consumers are going to be as concerned with some of the, you know, the conversation that we're having
10:32 am
today and the issues that we're talking about today, but i do think that education to the consumers is going to be really important. >> so education can -- just to understand you correctly, so education can keep up with technology but law can't? >> i mean, i don't see how government can. i'm not sure anything can keep up with technology. i'm only six months into working in the technology sector, but to say things move as lightning speed compared to how things work in the government is an understatement, you know what i mean? be i just don't know how government i loan and -- alone and policies alone can keep up with the pace of technology. >> i think education of the consumer by the companies deploying new technologies, the new concept i'm working through is the idea of corporate social responsibility, and corporate social responsibility in the digital world means the responsible use of data, the responsible use of information as part of the transaction with the customer. and i saw this again in the dark ages before any of you were born, apparently --
10:33 am
[laughter] in the early, early, before the first dot.com -- >> it was single click. >> exactly. will[laughter] there was, like, a style of mow denials when -- modems when i first started. people who had gotten themselves into serious hot water on cookies. again, it didn't happen because the offline data was on punchcards and there was really no way to match them, but i know you all get what a cookie is and what this tracking looks like and that it's really fairly benign because you're trying to serve people as about tennis be shoes when they were on the "sports illustrated" site. but this freaks people out. like, candidly, my professional legal opinion is there's fear and loathing in the technology. and if you want to be the promoter and the promulgator of a new technology, you have to not only think about how to use it responsibly, but also how to help educate the consumer so that they can make intelligent choices and informed choices
10:34 am
about what they're doing. so i think you're right. this is not to argue for only self-regulation and education. i can make all those arguments all day long. there's absolutely a need for the ftc and the attorneys general. and then i would argue and i've come full circle on the kind of federal privacy law in this country, and that's because the marketw3 is not just this count. the market is global, right? so a multi-national of any country doing business on the internet, we need to be thoughtful about where we are in the ecosystem of privacy and data protection, and we are not even on the playing field. we are considered the great unwashed on how we treat individual customer, you know, and consumer and individual data. and i have given -- i was just telling this story recently and was laughed at -- i gave the speech at the international commissioners' conference, you know, 15 years ago going through all the u.s. privacy laws, and there are a lot. there are a lot of u.s. privacy laws. the fair credit reporting act
10:35 am
and graham leech bliley and the protection act, and if you go through each one, it takes you a long time especially if you're speaking slowly for a multi-national audience. that didn't go over well with the europeans who had one law, and it's a lot easier to explain. if you want to be on the playing field with international consumers, when confronted with this ridiculous byzantine, you know, attorneys general versus one law and one regulator they can go to to complain, you kind of see the elegance in that. i'm not here to say the europeans have it right because i think there's lots and lots of flaws, but the latin americans have a phrase which is, essentially, maybe yachts data. -- habeas data. i really like that. the data's part of me. i choose to engage freely with company, so they have some rights in that data. i used to use it -- forgive me, i used to use it before i even worked there which was you have
10:36 am
to give them the address so they can deliver the book. that's part of the deal, right? it's profoundly impossible to consummate that deal unless i tell you where i live so you can deliver the book. so some data has to be transacted, but it's still my address. i retain rights in that data. and i like that construct far better than u.s. property rights, that it's something i sell or trade or barter or even, you know, the very, very draconian kind of regulatory structure around european human rights law which gets to a lot of principles, less enforcement. but it's still not mine. itthis is mine. it's part of me. >> but i think you're right, i mean, if you look at the areas where we've tried to legislate around technology, it's -- by the time we get it enacted, it's already obsolete. but aren't there so many fundamental principles, i go back, my first entree into the privacy realm was about 19 years ago when i made the mistake of ordering a pizza and they said, what's your phone number i said you don't need to call me, just
10:37 am
bring me a pizza. [laughter] and they refused to deliver the pizza unless i gave my phone number. so i was complaining to a friend of mine who happened to be the state's attorney general at the time, and he said, great, you're in charge of my new consumer privacy task force. and we had meetings from the financial industry, from the tech industry that was barely burgeoning at that time. we thought we had everyone's agreement on the legislation, there was two parts of it. one was consumer privacy, and it was a strict opt-in. you can't collect the information unless they opt in and agree to it, and you can only collect the information they really need for that transaction, and you can only use it for that transaction, then you have to be done with it. and the second part of it was the first identity theft legislation in the country. so we dropped the bill which is what they call it when you introduce it in olympia. literally that day, 85 new business lobbyists registered,
10:38 am
it was amazing, and they killed the consumer pryce part of -- privacy part of it. i can say quite happily we did become the national model for identity theft, but it showed me even then everyone understood there was a way to monetize this data and to take it and aggregate it in ways people didn't understand. so are there fundamental principles that people should be able to say i will give you my address, but i only want you to use that address to send me the book. you can't use it for anything else. what do you think, ryan? >> well, yeah. i hear this argument, you might imagine, which is the idea that law can't keep up with technology. and i sort of take the point. i mean, for example, by the time the federal be aviation administration approved a drone for testing delivery by amazon, right? by the time they actually got the application, realize it and said yes to it, amazon had already moved on to a new technology, and it was useless
10:39 am
to them, and they had to apply again. on the other hand, if you think about the laws that the federal trade commission enforces, what they say is that you can't be unfair or deceptive. and guess what? that matters in 1982, it matters in 2015. it's what we call a standard instead of a rule. and so i guess i don't totally understand why the government couldn't be more responsive. i think that one issue that i will immediately concede is that the government by and large does not have adequate technical expeer tease, right? -- expertise, right? and i think that's something speaking of violent agreement around, all around. and i think the federal trade commission, for example, is trying to address that by hiring very good technologists. in fact, they just hired someone from my lab to work in the technology job there. so that's a big problem, not having adequate understanding.
10:40 am
i'm sure you encountered that, i'm sure each of you encountered that, right? but i don't know that the law intrinsically can can't keep up in some deep sense. we have ways of just, you know, can the fourth amendment keep up? you know? >> i mean, i think a general standard can keep up. but, i mean, there is an intricacy to talking privacy policies, and those are the things i'm not sure government can keep up with. i think we can create a general standard, but to say something, you know, should be fair and just, what does that mean? i mean, the devil's in the details. so that's where the concern is. but that is not to say that there should not be policies and government doesn't have a role to play. i think they absolutely do, i just don't think we can rely wholly on the government just given the fact of how slow the government sometimes works. >> fair enough. >> that's right. nuala, you wanted to jump in on that. >> well, i've said recently in a speech that i despair of this congress, for example, so that's probably where i come out. it's not that it couldn't be
10:41 am
done, it's that it's moving at glacial speed. i think we are thinking about this at cdt a lot, you know, a clean sheet of paper in this country looks like, it would be very short, and it would be high level principles. once you create a particular standard around the technology or a security standard or whatever, you create a chilling effect, and you also create a target for the hackers to shoot at when you say this is what we're all going to do. then suddenly you really chilled innovation. but i think the high level standards, and ftc act is the right place to point at, of fairness, of fair dealing and then maybe with some more granularity around best practices and information principles that good companies, frankly, are largely already doing would be a very short, a very short bill, and we would have all the same challenges you experienced, jenny, of weaving new all of the many constituencies that clearly care about data. >> i -- just very quickly, i mean, right now as it happens
10:42 am
the federal communications commission is trying to decide how it's going to regulate privacy. and it has a long history of having these technology-specific, lumbering kinds of rules that are exceedingly slow. so as it drags certain kinds of -- i don't want to get too technical, the fcc has an opportunity to write privacy rules, essentially, for internet service providers. and they have a menu of options. and one of them will be this very technically-specific thing that will become outdated or the other will be this approach of looking to broader standards. and there's a real choice that government has, and sometimes it makes the wrong choice. >> and i was struck by something that ira said in the introduction, how important freedom of thought is and thinking about technologies now, you know, where does the person who is, you know, whether you're the teen who's curious about
10:43 am
sexually-transmitted diseases or a person who's struggling with alcohol or drug abuse, where do they go without being tracked and without leaving a record? maybe it goes back to that intersection between government and private companies, but, you know, try right now be researching something anonymously. >> they go to firefox. [laughter] >> but, i mean, seriously, what do we do for those -- i mean f, if you go now, even with mozilla, there's going to be tracking of searches. on the one hand, it was very transparent of facebook to give everyone's history and google to say, hey, you want to sign up to see all your searches? but on the other hand, people have been using the do you wanter a lot like a library. i want to find out about x, i want to think about x. is so in the search, never knowing that someone was maintaining that forever. how does that -- what should we do about the ability to have that anonymity and provide to
10:44 am
make sure that there's that ability of free come of thought? -- freedom of thought? he was no thoughts -- [laughter] >> this is not a perfect answer, it's barely an answer at all, but i do think that the level of expectation is changing. i expect to be tracked. i expect someone to be collecting that data. what i don't -- but what i also expect is that they're not going to use it against me, that they're not going to abuse that power. and so i expect them to monetize it so that, you know, there's an ad that comes up about something that i just googled, and it comes up the next time i open up by laptop and i open up, you know, clone which is what i use, but like whatever you use, you know? i expect that. but i just expect it not to be used against me and to be abused. so i do think that that level of expectation is changing, and i
10:45 am
think to some degree it's generational, but i don't think it's completely generational. i have friends who won't get on gmail because of the example i used earlier, a friend who won't even -- or most grocery stores give you those cards where you can save some money, she forbids to get one because they're tracking what she's buying, you know? she's the same age as me. and she has made that choice, and i've made a different choice, right? so i don't know how you have that kind of anonymity in the information age. i don't know how you do that. >> it doesn't hurt us as a society, because i can tell you one case where someone came to me, and they were concerned about a particular governmental misconduct. and they wanted to report it, but they wanted to remain a whistleblower, anonymous. and they literally could not find a route to do it. is that, does that hurt us as a society? >> well, so there are tools.
10:46 am
i mean, in all seriousness, there are many mozilla tools and others, and people despair of the fact that they're not widely accepted. the interfaces are clunky, and they're really hard to use. so they haven't taken off, and it does reflect somewhat their own lack of kind of good ui, but also that there's not a widespread desire, right? these are percentages on either extreme who say i don't care about -- anybody be knowing or i don't want anybody to know. and i think that's -- [inaudible] somewhere in the middle. but i thought raquel's answer was perfect and beautiful. it was i'm less concerned about the collection, which i'm still hard over on the collection side as well, but i don't want it to be used against me. that is a beautiful and incredibly important sentiment that it is not just the data, it is also the decision. and again our project at cdt is looking at the unintended
10:47 am
disparate impact in data collection and a variety of spaces that, again, even well intentioned, you know, engineers and product designers might not, you know, might not stress test or should be stress testing new technologies, new devices for the unintended or hidden disparate impact that may, you know, may simply be not something they were thinking about when designing, may not be a value proposition they were considering. but having those values of equality, of democracy, of equal impact embedded in the design stage are the way to get this right. and i get to quote the great jeff bezos, the time to build those values in is now. many people in this space say, oh, it's too late, there's so much data out there. no, no, no. we're still in the early, early days of getting this right, but the decisions we make now will last for decades, for centuries. and so we really need to do the hard work around fairness and around equality, around
10:48 am
embedding democrat values in the embedded internet. >> yeah. and i think that, you know, that's great. we were talking earlier ab some of the -- about some of the, you know, very concrete way is because so much information has been aggregated, when you log on, they can pretty much tell who you are, what you've bought, what kind of car, and the reverse is reverse marketing. trying to give you a mortgage cheaper. built into those algorithms could be basically, you know, digital red lining, you know? and what kind of steps do you think we can take to prevent against that? >> i mean, i think that, speaking of the million dollar question, that's so hard because it doesn't intend to be intentional in the way that, you know, we think of intentional. i mean, i cannot imagine that folks are out to red line on purpose, you know, the way that we once did. so, but -- >> it's happening still.
10:49 am
[laughter] >> let me say it a slightly different way. can you imagine that the folks at google or facebook would be sitting there thinking to themselves on purpose that they want to deny opportunities to people on the basis of their color or their race and things like that? i don't think they're intentionally doing it. >> they sell the data. >> data brokers. >> maybe some people do it intentionally, yeah. look -- yes, right? and it's something that i think about and write about all the time. but i guess what i'm trying to say is that so much of the mischief going to be, is going to be unintentional. i really -- it's interesting you guys have a different intuition, because i would like to sell it that way. [laughter] you know what i mean? but i don't think it can be be. >> raquel, what do you think? >> i just think, i mean, i go back to the housing crisis and predatory lending that was happening, and i don't know how much of that was, how much data and technology was being used
10:50 am
for the predatory lending that happened in this country especially around communities of color, i don't know, but i can say if they had that technology, would they use it? sure, because they were doing it. and -- >> fair enough. gosh, that's further than i would go. because i think it's already a problem -- >> yeah. like i don't know that they were using technology or data to do that, but they were doing it intentionally, so if they had technology at their hands that would allow them to do it since they were doing that intentionally -- >> i take it back then, honestly. [laughter] from my perspective, look, from my perspective it's like, you know, companies do crappy things in order to make money, right? so, for example, why is it that almost any major business that you call you don't talk to a person anymore, you just talk to some automation. they know you don't like that, you know? it just saves them money. why did banks have a class action against them where what was happening was people were making purchases on their debit card, and the bank was holding back those purchases so it could make sure to trigger as many
10:51 am
possible overdraft fees as it could. so it was putting them in the correct order -- why does everything cost 9.99? [laughter] companies are always tracking to extract as much rent, to use the economic terminology you might think, right? and when they're armed with an immense amount of information about you, they're going to leverage that information. it's actually precisely what you said which is that people who are doing bad things are now going to be doing bad things with lots of data, right? i guess i'm, my -- i've always thought it's bad enough that these things are going to fall in what is known as constitutional ladies rate impact. the -- law disparate impact. the fact that it does is enough to look at that and say this is not what society should tolerate. but it's interesting that many of believe that some folks are doing it on purpose. and maybe that's right. i should say maybe that's right.
10:52 am
excuse me. >> but that question was phrased differently, so he wasn't prepared for it. i'll take part of the responsibility. >> it's your fault. [laughter] >> it's always the moderator's fault. but, you know, let's take it back a little bit more because i think we see already a huge digital divide between, in our country between those who have ready access to technology and those that don't. you know, what are some of those things that we can address and learn about the importance of privacy but at the same time make sure that there's an equal playing field there? what do you think about that, nuala? >> that is, i think, the fundamental question. we look at access to being online in other parts of the world as kind of the critical juncture. the reality is that's happening in our own country. i think you see a lot of advocacy in this space that is somewhat, frankly, con desensedding to the rest of the world. the reality is -- con desending,
10:53 am
so you're right, privacy seems hike a nice to have for people who don't have the actual physical or software tools to get to the devices and the information that they need. and i think that's the threshold question. and, you know, we talk about net neutrality, and other principles of open internet, but as a mom i'm also concerned about, you know, the fairness at the earliest possible ages. and reinforcing kind of discrimination by increasing that divide over time. and it has to start -- i mean, digital literacy has to start at the earliest, earliest ages. i would love to see not only more thought about computer science and coding and curriculum and access to hardware at the earliest stages across the country, but literacy both in how to behave online and, you know, be a good consumer of information and a discerning consumer.
10:54 am
but i really love the initiatives around coding and computer science as sciences in the curriculum many this cup. because, again, there's still a hierarchy of sciences that are considered adequate to be included in elementary and secondary curriculum in this country. and i think knowing and and understanding the code and being able to discern for ourselves whether there is disparate impact or whether we don't like the look of some particular algorithm or we want to know what's behind the curtain, those are skills kids 30 years from now are really going to need. >> i heard something really interesting, you know with, we all took biology in school, i dissected a frog and knew all along that i was never going to be a doctor, but i still had to do that, right? and kids nowadays need to learn how to -- they need to learn computer science. it's too much part of our day to day. and to the issue of equality
10:55 am
when it comes to internet access, you know, there is a lot of income inequality and a lot of inequality in this country, and i think we all know it. it is hard to get by in this country without being connected somehow to the internet. and many of us who are better off are extremely connected to the internet. like, i don't know what i would do if i left my phone at home. i would literally be lost, because i'm new to seattle. [laughter] so i would actually be lost. but the fact that, you know, there are children in homes who it's not that they just can't afford internet access, their homes are not hard wired. they literally cannot get internet access into their homes even if they can afford it. that shouldn't be in a country where the information age is king. period. >> the other thing i think we can say with pretty good confidence is technologies don't -- technologies are vetted as against the mainstream population. and it's very rare that
10:56 am
technology will be vetted as against a nonmainstream population. and so one of the things that my lab does, and this is at the direction of one of my co-pis, codirectors, is that we actually have created panels of people that are not nonmainstream in order to do analyses of various technologies that we look at. so, for instance, we will look at gender, we will look at disability, and the panels, one recent panel was on people who have had contact with the prison system. and so what we see is that the definition of technology, its utility, some of the other contours of it actually change dramatically. i can give you just one quick example of that which is that augmented reality, the idea that there'd be a layer of reality over what you see, we think of it as being -- i thought of it as being augmented, so more reality. i never thought of it being a problem if you were to maybe
10:57 am
shut off augmented reality like google glass or something like that when you were in a bathroom or a boardroom, right? but when we talk to people with disabilities, they were using augmented reality as a substitute for a sense that they didn't have. so it was deeply problematic to turn it off automatically in a boardroom or a bathroom. and that's an insight that we simply would not have realized had we not done that. that's another layer too, can we really vet our technology that way. >> and this gets to not only the pipeline at the early ages, but the pipeline issues in the technology industry about diversity on panels, diversity in the development stage. you see devices when they are created by perhaps nondiverse segments not actually literally working and serving customers. i mean, this is not a profound, aha moment. marketing in the 1960s in the united states realized consumers were largely women, and they started putting women on the team because they could speak better to the can customer.
10:58 am
this is the same principle. we didn't actually invent some of these issues. we may be better at creating them or hopefully solving them, but i think -- i hate to call out a particular device, but i think it was of course you plus that dillly -- occulus did not work. >> it made women nauseated. >> right. the viewfinder was set at a width that didn't work for almost any woman's eyes. that probably reflects the fact that there were no women on the design team. so i'm a big believer -- all sorts of studies. harvard business school has done the study all over, women on design teams for technology will better serve results. but diversity in the pipeline in creating the device, i think, we'll end up with better deviceses and hardware and software in the future. >> that's great. we're getting close to q and a time. two more lightning rounds at the
10:59 am
end, and then we'll take some questions from the audience. lightning round question. so the europeans, as nuala, has mentioned, e.u. has a very different approach to privacy, and including i don't know if people know there was a recent case from the court over there that people have the right to be forgotten. so they can write to google and is say i want you to take me off -- someone searches, i want to be out of the searches. and there's recently been a follow-up study saying that doesn't just apply to european, they can't a apply anywhere be at all. right to be forgotten, good thing? bad thing? realistic thing? forget about it thing? how would you call it in a lightning round? nuala. >> gosh, this is hard to be short on this one. [inaudible conversations]
11:00 am
>> i'll try to keep it -- [inaudible] i mean,ç i think it's a right. i thinkç this goes back to the point about the digital self. i think if it's about me choosing, it's my life to be forgotten or my right to say no and to be out there. i think that's -- that makes sense from a consumer perspective, and i think that makes sense from an individual perspective. realistic in the u.s.? you know, to me it seems -- it doesn't seem so realistic in the u.s. but, you know, there's a lot of policies and i think a lot of, a lot of policies that european countries that ve -- that we just don't. this is one of those where i think in the right circumstances with the right stars aligned, it's something that maybe we could do in the u.s., but it would take some serious star alignment, in by opinion. >> what do you think, ryan? >> well, i totally agree. i think it's interesting in principle, but it's in practice,
11:01 am
i think, probably going to be almost impossible. look, for two reasons. number one is it'll just run right smack into the first amendment a lot, you know what i mean? it's going to be a free speech problem. your ability to withdraw from the internet is also i my inability to talk about you in a certain way. and europe doesn't think about that quite as much. and then number two, i mean, we have an attorney here in the audience who worked for the internet archive, and there's something called the way back machine that allows you to go back and look at the version of the site from five years ago, from, whatever, six months ago. and guess what's going to be there? the same thing you took down.. >> that same picture? >> i just don't know how we do it. >> i don't know a lot about e.u. politics, but i know a lot about american politics, and the lobbying arm here, i don't know how you surmount that.
11:02 am
to your point that you made, jenny, about that first bill and all those lobbyists registering as you dropped the bill in olympia, that just seemed -- my idealism has left me now, and this is the cynicism in me -- i don't know how we would be able to surpass that. >> so based on the e6789 -- e.u./u.s. debate, it's not that simple. first of all, i'm going to surprise you with my answer. we have a right to be forgotten in the united states. the fair credit reporting act, my favorite privacy law, allows for the deletion of your record after seven years, ten years, whatever. we've decided as a society that you have a right to be forgiven your suns in the financial context -- your sins in the financial context. but you also have a right to be known accurately and correctly for some time on credit decisions based on foundations of equal access to credit regardless of race, ethnicity, origin, etc.
11:03 am
your arrest record, if you're arrested as a minor, you have that right to be forgotten. you've seen the eraser laws, etc., etc. so we've decided as a country that in specific cases public access to information in housing -- we haven't even gotten to that -- for fairness, for equality, for access to the market is essential to the social good. and in some place, cases it is okay to be erased. i'm very into the forgiveness thing. that's a very spiritual thing. >> kid i mention she's irish? >> irish catholic, so i get to bless you all. in europe the concept for the right to be forgotten has gone too far. the court holding if you sit and read it once it's translated from the original spanish is far more finished than how -- far more measured than how it's being implemented. people with access to money and lawyers are asking to have embarrassing stuff pulled down. and i would argue that if it's true about you and that it is something that happened to a public figure or in the public
11:04 am
sphere or whatever and it's relevant to thing good like most historical facts are, we shouldn't be able to rewrite history. that worries me from an accuracy standpoint, from an opportunity to be known. i agree we have some control over the digital self and we have a whole other conversation about revenge porn, there's actually an acronym now in the policy world about nonconsensual sexual materials, but about control of one's data and image. very, very important. but being able to just say i'm going to take that down because it was embarrassing and i'm really sorry i did it, the the first request to google was some former member of the u.k. parliament who had been caught in some financial scandal. i mean, that's important for the voters to know who they're going to reelect. so i would say, first of all, the dialogue and the debate is far more nuanced than either side gives the other side credit
11:05 am
or fur. but i have become, as i said, from my privacy origins, my year and a half at cdt has made me go far over to speech is what is under attack. speech of the individual, of women online in particular, of speech against the government. that is what is the greater thing that is under attack in the internet today, and i worry greatly about it. >> all right. we are going to take some questions from the audience. and we have a microphone over here, so everyone can hear it. so if you have questions, line up there, and we'll take them one at a time. and if you could -- if you feel like introducing yourself do, if not, don't worry about it. >> i'm -- [inaudible] and very interested in the freedom of speech or the inhibiting of flee.com of speech that a lack of privacy provides. recently i was clicking on some bernie sanders on facebook, some statements he was making, and and i was really interested in what i was reading, and the next thing i know i had a pop-up
11:06 am
invitation to the communist party. [laughter] and i thought to myself -- yeah. i thought, you know, i'm actually building a political profile, and i these to wake up to the fact that i am doing that, and i need to be either an active participant in that or back away and reassess it completely. so any comments you have about the inhibition to freedom of speech that i think is happening due to a lack of privacy. >> yeah. so, i mean, i think that's a very important question. and what i would say is that it's important to remember that there's a big difference between how you experience something and the potential that something will be used against you. and so in my own work i differentiate between the subjective kind of privacy harm and an objective one where by subjective i'm talking about the potential chilling effect. for instance, i think it's fair to say that being able to google things that are controversial about gender identity, about ve
11:07 am
ferrell in diseases, about anything, being able to to google things and get an answer is probably less chilling than having to go to a librarian or to your parents or asking one of your friends, you know? this point has been made recently in a brookings white paper where he talks about the fact that people are not good with these trade-offs. yeah, google has a record of the fact that you searched for these things, but you don't have to ask anybody, right? on the other hand, there is a prospect that unlike your friend who you go and ask the question to or librarian or the doctor, the company is in a position to leverage it and use it against you. and then there's sometimes where in using it against you or using it in a certain way you come to be aware suddenly that, subjectively aware of the fact that you're being tracked, and then you have both, both
11:08 am
subjective unease and the chilling and also the objective potentially material use against you. but i think it's useful to talk about the difference between feeling like you're being surveilled and then the consequences of that. sometimes the worst thing is where you don't feel like you're being surveilled at all, but then it turns out things are being denied to you. >> question over here. >> hi, my name's davidson. my question is about privacy in the commercial sector and an issue i don't think we touched on really which is about the advertising model. so it's one thing to have zillow or amazon collect day a about me -- data about me, but google and facebook and other social media sites are in the business of selling ads, so they're reselling that data, and i wonder what sorts of protections you think are necessary for guarding privacy of that kind of data? >> secondary use. i won't let the person on zillow have to answer that question. that would be wrong. nuala, i'll let you do that. >> i am so much more concerned
11:09 am
about content and the deprivation of access to opportunity. e think the advertising industry is certainly moving towards more transparency, more accountability and the ability to choose not to be a part of that ecosystem should you want that, but what worries me is the example 245 -- that we looked at recently was a job search site where people navigating to that site were shown sea level -- i think it was actually a seattle, a search for a seattle c suite jobs, and they were shown to 88% men and 12% women based on their surfing history. so it wasn't just the ad, it was actually the opportunity. and as ryan pointed out, the people surfing didn't even know that they weren't being shown something in the same category or at the same rate. and interestingly, nonpoised assumptions simply have come to this site from be let's be really gendered and, you know,
11:10 am
stereotypical, you know, "sports illustrated" site for men or a fashion site for women or something like that. and that, to me s the unintended disparate impact. the algorithm wasn't set up for that. it was set up to show people looking for this city and this level job across the board, but the output was based on kind of an advertising model of very disparate impact. so that worries me. again, it's not only data, but the decision being made about you and what you're not seeing. >> yeah. i probably would go a little bit further than that. i think there has to be some -- i think there's some fundamental principles. people have a right to know what data's being collected, how it's being used by the entities collecting it and who they're giving it to so they can make the decision whether they want to continue in that transaction or not. and i think if you give those three pieces and you really are able to do it, and right now the market be i don't believe gives people adequate information about that. there's a lot of arguments and
11:11 am
you hear, well, people vote with their clicks. i don't think the majority of people truly understand how -- what information's being collected, how it's being aggregated with other information. so i think it's a concern, but i think it's one that ultimately i think that we will not solve it through legislation and regulation. i think we're going to have to solve it through marketplace and companies being more thoughtful. this side. >> hi. i'm hans copell, and you may have just answered my question, because i was thinking of feasibility of something like your computer -- your credit report that you would be able to once a year find out what data has been collected from you and how it's been used, and then you would then -- i think companies would be embarrassed sometimes to admit what they were collecting which might cause them to back off. and people would then be aware of what was actually being done with everything that we did online. >> i think that's a good thing -- there's actually been talk at the federal level
11:12 am
through powers they already have of doing exactly that. anyone who's a data clerker would have to show -- collector would have to show individuals the information that they've collected so you could see if it's accurate, and if it's not accurate, make sure it's corrected and also know what's being collected on you. but that will only happen if the market demands it. so -- >> i'm glad tom brought up the subject of government and corporate blurring. when it comes to young people, to me, i'm a person nowadays -- [inaudible] and under 25 are the biggest consumers. and corporations now sell products in such an intriguing way that kids don't even consider the thought you're going to know about me, you're going to know everything about me. and i worry that they think folks under the age of 25 aren't interested in privacy. they're really not. they're too interested this products. and we have to make sure that people under the age of 25, especially teenagers, start
11:13 am
getting interested in data being collected on them. >> so i think it's an important point, and i don't want to -- [inaudible] that generation, you know? it's not just that, you know? and i am over 25. but i will say, i mean, often times as someone who has hired people and hired people who are in their mid 20s, i am fascinated at the things they think are okay to put on the internet, they choose to put on the internet. not data collected against them, but what they choose to put on the internet. and i do think -- and i don't think this is a technology issue or a danish shoe or a privacy issue. i think it's a young person issue. when i was young, i was the same way. technology and data wasn't where it is now, but young people don't have, they don't think about long-term consequences, period. and i think that's the case for every generation, all of us, you know, went through that moment
11:14 am
where we realized there are consequences to our actions and inactions. but i think that for this generation and generations to come, the problem is those consequences never leave because it's on internet, and it's always going to be there and always going to be able to be found. >> [inaudible] you don't even -- [inaudible] the government and corporations are very -- [inaudible] >> one trend that i worry about a lot is the trend from what we've been doing online up until about now, last few years, which is online preference marketing where the idea is that you see ads on the basis of what companies believe your preferences are, right? and so the idea is that you're matched. if you hiking -- like soccer, yu
11:15 am
see soccer ads. the way it seems to be headed is a little more in the direction this gentleman's alluding to which is something called persuasion profiling. it look at how persuadable you are and what the best technique to persuade you. let me quickly say, this isn't -- this is science, right? so one example in a study was it turns out that some people are really worried about what other people think, and they want, you know, something that's really popular. and so for those people you figure that out, and you say of the product our most popular item. but there are other people that could care less. because of some way that they grow up, they worry about scarcity. so the exact same product is advertised to that person by saying "while supplies last." ..
11:16 am
like you had the sense that they are not working with intent. they're creating algorithms rockets without thinking this will discriminate against this group of people or whatever. i think it's because of where education is a right now, we are in the art school, traditional
11:17 am
studio curriculum we don't consider the things that we're doing as far as ethical and social implications but we are producing things are at a very line like great craft and that's what's been happening in silicon value. arts centers pipelining to microsoft, all the studio-based curriculums are bringing designers into the tech world without any sort of bearings about what we're actually working on. we don't have a sense of what the crap is. with a fair amount of confidence this is happening to the engineering side of things. i did a two quarter long research thing about ethics in design education. i talked to a bunch of students, art students in san francisco and i talked to some people at berkeley. all of these people are doing engineering and design truly
11:18 am
don't care about ethics. i know that sounds kind of flippant but it's true. i don't know. so what do we do to get behind all of this? >> i don't think it's okay they don't care about ethics but i don't think it's their job to care about the ethics. because it means the company needs to hire someone who does. like the designer, the engineer, you have a job. develop, code, make sure the experience is great, it works. there needs to be someone at the company who is think about privacy and think about those moral issues. so i get your point with regards to the. i do think that, i don't think it's in a back into i think a company is not just, trust me, i'm not an engineer or a design designer and i work at a tech company. i think it's about hiring speed but she does have morals. >> and ethics.
11:19 am
and i would wait in on something like that at zillow. nuala did the same thing at amazon. it's not okay but i think that it doesn't mean that the company or the organization is off the hook because of the. >> i think those are good points you raised about. one is i've been talking to a lot of the educators particularly in silicon value and to think instilling a sense of should we with the camera is going to be a change has to be instilled in academia but it's also we talked about at dinner having it in the countries themselves interdisciplinary teams so the engineers are saying we've got this really neat widget we can do x, y and z. summit is like that's just kind of creepy. or should we do that? of making sure you have it in the development stage. using the same thing around security. technology would outstrip security and people were build all sorts of intelligence that
11:20 am
did not have security built-in and whipping a heavy price for it. >> i'm from chicago. i'm from the presidents neighborhood. i would kind of like to look at the big picture. i'm wondering how damned efficient all of the internet and so forth, even though i must admit it has helped me, i mean i could barely type when i got out of high school, it is made into a writer since i learned how to use it. i'm grateful for it. at the same time with all of the communications that is supposed to be giving us and all the marvelous central intelligence
11:21 am
and so-called intelligence, the hundreds of billions of dollars that we give to them, we still didn't know that the ussr was falling apart, that the berlin wall was coming down. we did not know how many tanks and strengths hussein had when we invaded iraq. we did not know how to get hold of bin laden, and we sent thousands of troops and hundreds, tens of billions of dollars for weeks to invade iraq again. and i'm wondering, tell me, how efficient is the internet with
11:22 am
all these marvelous intelligence agencies working in the government to give us the information we are supposed to know about so that we start making wrong decisions. please tell me. [laughter] spirit i think the answer is we can never rely on the technology if the humans are not good. and technology should never, sorry about your robots, we can't replace humans and were always, the bottom line is it's only as good as the people making the decisions. i think those are great points. >> we have time for one last, quick question. >> sorry, folks. you are the last one. >> i am curious in this conversation which i found very
11:23 am
interesting but i don't think the dangers were talked about. we are talking a lot about corporations, that they might use this information against us in some maybe surreal blackmail way but i don't think that's a real risk. i think there's a lot of risks with track and you can access to that data. like my family just got into the iphone steps and how it can count every step you're making. the idea that my iphone and everybody's i put in my family knows exactly where they are and whether they're moving or standing still seen something very serious and concerning. and additionally the idea of using google as a search engine. you are talking about that is better than talking to the library or to your parents in front of something. and isn't as harmful as it might seem but when you are ending up in court and the court case comes up whether family court or you've been accused of raping someone and now your entire
11:24 am
internet history is being scrutinized, or whether their psychological studies that are coming up to determine what ours are you searching this information or how may times did you search for the information? was a just and education and cory or an addiction or something? i think those are all -- to give any comments. >> first i apologize to people who would questions and didn't get an answer. i know some of us will stay around. i think it's a good question. we didn't get into the one of the questions we didn't get to his personal safety. if you are, particularly domestic violence victims or in one. it's hard to hide nowadays. very easy to find people. if we define then you can get the aerial surveillance of their house. you sometimes get the actual plans to the house online. you can get incredible amount of information about individuals and think we haven't quite
11:25 am
reached that point. is a very acute problem when i was in the u.s. attorney's office because we are potential terrorist threats against critical infrastructure. and yet because we are transparent society we have online access to all of the emergency exits and tunnels for all of the public buildings in seattle. there's always that balance there i think you're right that are built in things we will have to look at the individual cases. >> are you a law student? >> yes. >> we will give you an internship. internship. >> after the awful question. talk to emily. i think that as a privacy law nerd, i should tell you that there's this back and forth that happen early on in the days of privacy law literature between dan and one of most influential privacy scholars around and an equally interesting and really
11:26 am
amazing scholar by the name of ann barto. and barto reviewed this book i believe it was probably understand the privacy, she gave it a slightly negative review. and she said look, what are the dead bodies? your talk about the digital digl person, talk about this and that but what about people's lives? and i have to say that over the years working in this area i feel like we are seeing more and more dead bodies. some the bodies are dead by the own hand because something they did that was internet was filled a potential shared and so they killed themselves. other people are dead because of drone strikes another people are dead because of other reasons. information is power and sometimes our gets abused in violent ways. i appreciate your point very much and i just recommend that back and forth between ann and dan as a student of privacy law.
11:27 am
>> we're going to do one last thought. everyone gets to leave a thought. nuala? >> i am funded and still the optimist despite everything we talk about. we should be worried about the physical, the blurring of lines between online presence and a real-life presence and the risks that you're sharing and others assuring about you present. i am however, focus on the agency warfare, the supreme court is getting it right or i'm proud to say cdt was quoted but in analogizing in o'reilly case that your cell phone is the digital a quota of tracking of the locker room behind you with all your data and think that that is beyond the scope of law enforcement intrusion for a search in recognizing the tracking gps tracking and jones and others goes far beyond not just law-enforcement but social norms and what is there in what is right in the individual
11:28 am
relationship space but i think we'll try a lot of things and look at the wrong but we will get to the right answer and these are the rocky days when the platform is not let the we all are doing the right thing by engaging in a dialogue. >> i think that, final thought is any invention, any innovation can be used for good and it can be used for bad. and that we as a society have to make sure that we are not sleeping and innovation and attention is being used for bad. and that's the same with technology. and again i go back, i think the conversation around all the information and all the data being tracked and being aggregated, a level, the expectation is i do think us shifting in this country. and as it shifts i think that's okay. i honestly do but i think they're still the checks and balances of making sure that it's not going to be used
11:29 am
against you. the same way technology can be very efficient and to make sure don't get lost in seattle, my new home, can also be used against me in can be a power that is abused. we as a society just have to make sure that we are doing what we can as a democracy to stop that from happening. >> you know, on a hopeful note i think things have gone in many people's views too far and now there's beginning to be a reaction to a course correction. i think you see that andy supreme court's recent jurisprudence. there's a meaningful competition around privacy in the places you might expect like companies competing with one another to say that they are more private and even among federal agencies we're starting to see some competition and privacy so that different agencies are getting into the mix and pushing each other a little bit in terms of what things to pursue.
11:30 am
on one level i'm very hopeful but i think it's sad we have to get so far down the road before this reaction is finally starting to happen. >> i'm with nuala graphics optimistic outlook in this room that you people came on the city scene to talk about his shows administered at the end of the day i believe in our democracy that it is the people who will decide and can decide if they have the information. thank you for coming. [applause] [inaudible conversations] >> republican presidential candidate new jersey governor chris christie will outline steps to strengthen u.s. intelligence capabilities and
11:31 am
improve homeland security. he will be speaking at the council on foreign relations in washington. are wrote to the widest coverage begins live at 12:30 p.m. eastern on c-span2. retired admiral david titley is a formal navy expert in the field of climate, the arctic and national security. he speaks about the effects of climate change on security and public policy. westminster college in fulton, missouri, hosted this event. he begins by describing his experience as a navy navigator. >> what is that? what is that black thing with the numbers on it? it's a sextant. what do you use sextant for? i'm sorry? i thought i heard an answer. yes, navigation. it's for shooting stars.
11:32 am
so now maybe the professor to remember that i doubt if anyone else does. there was a time in this world we did not just pull this thing up a told you within 10 minutes of we were on the planet. and a special when you act out on that ship, that was my first ship, i got to the navigator which was like the coolest job in the navy because you got to tell the captain where to go. nobody else got to tell the captain where to go. but there was no gps. there was a satellite navigation. it was really hasn't changed much for hundreds of years. you shoot the stars and use a lot of landmarks and once you learn pretty quickly as navigator otherwise he would end up being a wal-mart greeter, is that you look at all the evidence, kind of look at everything, you don't log on or use any one particular thing 100% but you look at everything and then you use like kind of the gray matter, stuck in
11:33 am
between your ears and you say okay this is where we are and this is where we're going. politely tell you all that? because about 30 years after i had that really, really cool job of driving that destroyer around and being navigator during the cold war, the head of the navy asked me to start inform the navy's task force on climate change. it was basically i don't know if there's anything to do this climate thing or not but i got a bunch of people think this is a big deal, special in the arctic. i got another bunch of people that says this is all the worry about it, the other stuff you should do. three tony. you're supposed to be the oceanographer for the navy, u.s. both the smart on this weather stuff. go figure it out and let me know what we're supposed to do. those were my marching orders. i had about two weeks between the time i was told guess what, you're going to washington and doing this, to go up there to
11:34 am
the pentagon. what i use that time to do was to take a look at evidence. and as john mentioned, my background is actually as a meteorologist as meteorologist we know, special back when i started doing this stuff, god, over 40, we were just over 40 years ago. a long time ago. getting a three-day forecast right was nontrivial. and yes, i know the jokes are it's still nontrivial today. but it was really hard and duty of the computer models could be really wrong really quickly. and you are seeing variations of 20, 30 degrees interesting the computer models are kind of garbage after today's. i was like a lot of meteorologist in the '70s and '80s and even '90s. it's like look, how can you do anything? really, how can you do anything ask sal was about at any
11:35 am
particular local belief but for me cite one if you i was not convinced that we could really do this. so fast forward to 2009 and i was told this is going to be your job but tell me if there's something here. so what i just said is let's just put aside all my preconceived notions as best i can. i'm human so we all have biases but becaus the best i can let'st that aside and let's see what a saudi. here's just a few examples of some of the stuff that i looked at. if you look at the top left with air temperatures. this is globally averaged and i know these are little bit small brass but as we start from about 1880s by decade, just every 10 years. take look at the temperatures and it is up to about 2010. the arctic ice on the top right is how much ice is left in the late summer, right about now, within a week today is the minimum amount of ice you see in
11:36 am
the arctic ocean and that was that plot. you can see in the last 40 years out is coming down. but maybe you say maybe the temperature record is screwed up, maybe it's because we've been building cities, more people, it's not really reflecting what's really going on. you might've heard that, some people say that. so the left one is actually kind of interesting. in norfolk, virginia, right on the norfolk, on the coast of virginia and north carolina border just north of there is a neighborhood in norfolk called the hague. this is how many hours they are underwater per year. and begin the numbers are hard to see. to craft starts in like 1920 that a few hours. they had a few hours back then but you can see with that crap is going. what does that tell me? if the avalanche is going to another seas are going to. the cesar conde a. it on the right is actually a big insurance company called munich reinsurance and the only
11:37 am
deal in this is they want to stay in business. so a very big insurance company the way you stay in business is you've got to get the risk right because of the risk tells you how much you charge for the premiums. so they go figure out, and again the colors don't mean that much to us right now, but the red stuff, the red stuff is like earthquakes and volcanoes and tsunamis. i would argue released for that 50 years or so there's not much change. if you just look at the very bottom, the red stuff is pretty much flat. all the other stuff is weather and climate. that's coming up in business and how many dollars or whatever. this is like how many big events do we have to. so there's all my evidence. if i go back to being a navigator it's like well, the
11:38 am
evidence, sorry, the evidence to me said i really need to pay attention to this and that so we told the navy. the navy since that time, we're going to do this task force on climate change. that's kind of how it went. until i really look at this stuff, this was about a decade ago give or take, i kind of thought this is a political thing, this is of this, this is a that. but when you look at the evidence you said okay, this is real. i will talk to a couple slides here that kind of shows not only is this real but when you dig into the science, the science has been known for a long, long time to it's kind of weird in that regard. there hasn't been a big oh, my god, we figured out something different. we figured out the science back in the late 1800s, in the 19th century. we have been refined ever since but the basic science is still there. actually let me stop here.
11:39 am
any questions on the evidence and sort of how i approached that? any questions on was this all that it took? questions about the weather? anything on that? please use the mic so everybody can hear. >> i was just wondering, i was just curious, what defines -- >> the question is what is a catastrophe on that? i think for munich it was basically a magnitude of either the heat or the flooding. most of that is heat or flooding. on the volcanoes they are pretty easy to measure come and tsunamis and earthquakes, once you get above a certain magnitude. it was much more the magnitude of a threshold of a physical event as opposed to we had this huge earthquake but it was in
11:40 am
the middle of the place where nobody lives so, therefore, it doesn't counter they were just saying no, we discount everything. so that's kind of how they did it. >> thank you for being here, first of all. some people don't believe in climate change because there is no agnostic evidence, like we don't have the data from a the 1700s. so how do you reply to them? >> the question of is the really enough evidence, and it's kind of interesting. one of my colleagues at penn state as a professor, mike man, and actually do something called paleoclimate. he tried to go back before the temperature records and using things like corals, tree rings,
11:41 am
basically, let's see, he does a lot with the tree rings and a lot with the corals. you can to into the ice more than they can get you back about a half million years and you can look at things like macondo pollens get blown around the. so using all those kinds of records, edu-con to be careful and get to calibrate and understand just because you see something you like a greenland ice core with local or global. doing all the kind of hard science stuff, the details of the science allows us to extend these records back several thousand years. you may or may not have heard of something called the hockey stick. it basically shows that for the last thousand years that temperatures have been doing this, and then all of a sudden in the last 50 years they're going up like so. it gets this hockey stick shape to me. so yeah, when you sort of deal the next layer down from like
11:42 am
the modern-day record, you can use what they call a petty a record. that evidence is still consistent with a long period of the climate stability and now quite rapid change. john. >> win the navy asked you to form this task force on climate change and look into it, they were looking at this from the perspective of a national security concern that the navy might be involved in. i was wondering, were they thinking about climate change as something that would have an impact on how the navy operated, or were they thinking about it perhaps also about how climate change would exacerbate conflict in the world in many ways and, therefore, basic require the navy to act?
11:43 am
did they have an overarching sense that climate change could be a situation which exacerbated tensions between nations in many, many ways? what they think about it in a more local, tactical way that climate change could affect the way the navy operated in the arctic or something like that? >> that's a really interesting question. and i'll tell you back when i was asked to do this, because sort of the full story is i was running the navy is operational weather and ocean forecasting business. it's down in mississippi. minding my own business etiquette the call from the head of the navy, and my system, you get a lieutenant who is an assistant and she basically said, sir, recalling the chief of naval operations, like the head dude. and she's likewise this guy calling my boss? so you're thinking, what are you thinking? what would you be thinking of
11:44 am
all of a sudden my depression of the university is calling one of you guys? what did i do wrong, right? so that's the first thought. the second thought is i don't know exactly how it would work here but usually if it's the number one guy calling, that usually okay. if it's the number two guy like the deputy or the provost or somebody put executive vice president, they are usually the guys and gals of you to say you know, you're not doing so good, we're going to make a change. so the number one guy, this is okay. it was really, john, to your point, it was about the arctic. specifically a navy when asked me to go up, the wannabe deform basically an arctic task force. and what i did in those sort of two weeks that i had between going out and having to tell the navy what we're going to is i was able to show enough evidence to say says, see you know, yes
11:45 am
the arctic we need to look at because this is one of the nearest term big change of events going on. and it has potential, very significant ways the navy would operate. i called opening up a fifth ocean for the first time in hundreds the district last time we got a new potion it was because of columbus. but i also -- a new potion -- this is what just a harbinger of things to come. and that the arctic is really the leading edge of his climate issue which is going to affect the military. not just the u.s. navy put the military in many ways. i can see exactly how. there has been concurrently to me a think tank called cna. it is to the center for naval analysis but now they just known as cna. i'm not about to se say center r naval analysis anymore. i don't know why not. if something called the military advisory board, retired three in
11:46 am
four starts at about the same time i was going up to the pentagon taken out with a report, an independent report, he basically said that climate change is going to be what the term was a threat multiplier. so if any of you remember like the old basf commercials, remember, we don't make things, we make things better. climate change is kind of the opposite. we don't make sense but we make things worse. climate change takes an existing threat and makes it more challenging. we are seeing that. we saw play out in the arab spring. we are seeing you play it right now and syria and this whole story the other go through in the plenary session on linking this. and the link isn't anywhere near as simple as we had climate come a change, now have ices and now have a massive refugee issue in europe. but it's rather like a causal chain of events from one village
11:47 am
to another, leads to another. you can think of all those links in the chain and like if you break the link in the chain no longer really bad outcome. climate is just one of the links in the change. you could argue if we did have president assad, you wouldn't have had to do with some of the challenges ahead. they may not have tried to become self-sufficient in the 1970s which means everybody grow your own food. sounds really good but he don't have enough water, what happens with you use of all the groundwater. that's okay and to get a really bad drought which is what they had. now they have no groundwater and by the way, india iraq were nearly 1 million iraqis went into syria. so that was a big issue. now that you have the farmers the really can't go anything because they've used all the water and it is hotter and drier
11:48 am
and there's a pretty good climate a link to that but now there's no plan b or plan c. or plan b. they've gone into the cities and the whole place collapsed. begin its run by this guy is not. so you take all those things together and you end up with a really, really horrific situation in the middle east. climate is one of those contributing factors. and i say this because i kind of cringe when i see the headline climate change caused isis. but climate was one of the contributing factors. we've got a really bad drought in california, arguably the worst in hundreds of years but we don't have isis in california. yet. we don't have isis in california and that's because we have governance, safety nets. we have ways to mitigate this at least for now, whereas syria did not. so i hope that answers that,
11:49 am
john. we started off kind of near. i tried to broaden the scope of what our task force could look like, look out. i've kind of talked about some of these things. let me step it down to be a little bit more them i'm not going to talk about that one. i'll talk about this. this is a draft, i didn't have the colors on it and we all know on powerpoint if it's color it must be true. you guys are not science. conciseness so much of the telegraph, oh, yeah, this is great. this was a very simple, and i used a graph just like this to brief the heads of the world's navy in newport, rhode island, a couple falls ago. it really does have a whole lot of saying things like climate audit. it's because this is getting down to the don't cover the temperatures are rising by two degrees or three degrees, or
11:50 am
tell me, telling that ecosystem thing is changing. tell me what it means to the military spirit is is kind of, i will apologize, it's kind of in military use. if you look down the far left column, the arctic is changing. we mentioned that. the ice is coming out at an astounding rate. most people believe, and i'm in this camp, but probably sometime in the 2020s or the early 2030s we will start seeing several weeks this year in which that basically no sea ice in the arctic, which is an amazing trend that is happening literally in your lifetimes. even 10 or 15 years ago people thought that would take at least a century or a couple centuries to happen. and rather than taking sentries it's taking a few decades. it's happening much, much
11:51 am
faster. we can talk about all the implications that means to a navy. the bases and disaster relief a lot of people talk about, you see a big typhoon and the pacific. we send ships, the u.s. navy since ships and the army sends in troops and supplies. it's called humanitarian and disaster relief. it's a disaster relief. i have that in greeting. honestly western militaries, the japanese military, the chinese military is getting better at this. a lot of militaries can do this pretty easily. if you keep doing enough and enough you will get a capacity issue but it's pretty easy to do. the impact of bases is like rising sea level, drought, forest fires. those are coming up in sort of the longer-term. i sort of got the yellow kind of color on there. but at least for the bases it's
11:52 am
probably still a few decades out and do we really see the big effects. but the things that got in the yellow to orange, the arctic is changing very fast as i mentioned. and even just in the last year you now have russia that has certainly built up their capabilities but their intentions are frankly much harder to understand. there's a lot of very bellicose rhetoric coming out of russia. and how much of that is into consumption, how much of that is for doing other things, and how much of it is like a, we mean it lacks i'm of the view that you can't just discount this entirely because little pop quiz, what is the nation that just went and invaded a sovereign independent european nation? oh, yeah, that would be russia. so you can't just sort of like to ignore all this bombastic
11:53 am
rhetoric because they had invaded places recently. so the arctic is kind of a wild card. these security threats come to you strategic threats we talked about like arab spring, like syria, that is happening right now. any questions on this? [inaudible] >> so the question was has been made in anything in response to this analysis? the navy has a couple of things out, and now the department of defense, who of course the navy as a part of, has kind of, since i don't, as were taken over a lot of this. there's a fair amount of high level documentation. there are strategic plans, planning documents, roadmaps as far as what to do.
11:54 am
i would say on the disaster relief we've got that covered. the bases, their -- there shortly thank you to with the bases will do. as recapitalized infrastructure, healthy dose of either needs less fresh water. they can have its own power supply for it to be more resilient. you understand where the critical dependencies or. if it's in your the ocean, you are almost always liked part of a 10. it does you know good to like armor, i will call it armor up, put hard levies are bound basically workforce its content and all you're doing is shunting the water out of your base and into their kitchen to do not have a workforce. doubt in norfolk, virginia, there is a pilot project to try to put all the pieces of government, a federal, regional, local governments together that is being funded by the widest of
11:55 am
you how to get like, when addedu add it up there's like 3060 the agency. they've got to play nice together because they are all going to go to her physical shape of all sink or swim together and they of least realize that they can do their own independent solution. they are geostrategic risk i think is something that the department of defense needs to continue to really think about. there's good work on the bases and on infrastructure. i think they need to think, continue to think seriously about you strategic risks. those are the scariest ones. they will probably paradoxically look least like climate issues but they could have the biggest threats. one and two. >> you are talking about how funny is going to be a big issue for some of these small towns of what of our health department areas such as like new york,
11:56 am
houston, new orleans and the state of florida? what are the plans in place for those bigger areas? >> i understand st. louis is a nice place to live. it is going to be as we continue through the 21st century and certainly into the 22nd century, this is going to be a huge issue. so you select and assign to literature there's a lot of debate about how much sea level rise unaccredited to the year 2100. there's somethin something calle intergovernmental panel on climate change, ipcc, they are very conservative. they're talking about roughly two feet dish in there. of something called the national climate assessment. it said it's going to be some of between six inches and 70. it's like my responses my mother to tell me that. as we keep going the consensus is becoming more and more like
11:57 am
about three feet. but the thing which i think a lot of people are missing is the oceans are not going to stop milk and beer, or the ice is not going to start melting into your 2100. in fact he keeps accelerating. long-term i be dead by the time this is an issue. you ladies and gentlemen, who are students now, you will be at least by age or a little older when this is really becoming an issue. but your children, no kidding, i going to have a massive issue on this. you know how much money b woulde spent redoing the levees around new orleans after katrina? $14.6 billion. 14.6. do you know how much money we put into miami or new york or houston since then? basically nothing.
11:58 am
so great, you know, katrina became the poster child for a little while. we dumped a ton of money into there. we've got a system whic which nn fact i was just doing some research on this a few weeks ago. in about two or three decades that levee system is not going to be big enough to deal with the sea level rise so they will ask for another 10 or 20 billion. you've got houston, tampa, miami, not to mention jacksonville and norfolk. sandy, that was 60 billion right there. so this is going to be that sea level one overtime is going to be the dominant issue over time, but it's going to take time to get there. near-term, the security threats in the arctic are probably going to dominate this issue. you're right. i mean, the sea level rise issue especially as we get into late
11:59 am
into the 21st century and the 22nd century, unless we get really serious about carbon mitigation, basically getting off carbon fuels like now, this is what's going to happen. and i tell people the ice doesn't caucus with the democrats or the republicans. it doesn't watch msnbc or fox or c-span. but the ice just melts. it doesn't care about our politics and it is just melting. that's going on. you had a question? >> so i was wondering if the united states has any particular special interests in the arctic besides security threats from russia? i don't know why we would be investing so much money in building boats or other things that could have taken capacity of ice when we do have the painting threats at home.
12:00 pm
>> the question is like so why should we care about the arctic? is that a fair paraphrase? giunta we've got a lot of other issues. i think up to now i would say you've accurately summarized u.s. policy in the arctic. we do some nice sites up there. we are recognized as a sidebar us in the arctic but we really haven't had any infrastructure. i don't know if any of you ladies or gentlemen have been up in the arctic. there's just so much up there. even today. the issues are going to be at the shipping routes really will be moving up there. not today, not tomorrow but it will be moving out there. the shipping routes as i'm sure everybody knows, there are the warehouse of the world. we don't have warehouses anymore. we've got a bunch of container ships. our economy shuts down if those ships and those shipping routes
12:01 pm
don't keep going. that will affect not only people in the ports but then everybody who makes stuff or wants to sell stuff, including farmers in the midwest. so the shipping routes are one. you can argue whether we should or should not be looking for more fossil fuels but if the policy is to continue to look for fossil fuels, the arctic is one of the places where there's still a lot. you could again i think makes them very writable arguments that the risks are extremely high in the arctic. the costs are high, but we're going to have to see. what are the alternatives? we need to get serious i would argue personally we need to get serious about that. or other minerals up there. we see a lot of tourism going up there. tourism is a big driver in economies that large. we see much increase in tourism going up there -- writ large.
12:02 pm
and the other part is its sovereign u.s. territory. i think he did mention the security is part of it but like we don't just say the coast guard is cut out of my so which is going to let florida go to anybody who wants to have it. we don't say that. why would they say the same thing to the arctic? here's a question. who is coming here tomorrow? secretary johnson, right? asking this question. why would you spend, all these billions of dollars to harden our borders and the lower 48 what is basically you have a clue what's going on up in alaska. anybody could walk into alaska, give themselves an airline ticket would be made up of driver's license and judith light alaska airlines and you in the u.s. boom, you know? it's like the imaginative wall. i just got around to.
12:03 pm
it is u.s. sovereign territory and we should treat it as such. it's not like that thing the president goes to a now we've all forgotten what he went. will so those are issues in the u.s. arctic. this picture i have served with some that came out of episode of star wars. it did not. this is an island. does anybody know what this is? it is to northeast greenland. it is norwegian kind of character is something called the treaty of svalsat and it basically says basically norwegian but anybody else who signed this treaty can be there as well. like the russians are there. we don't really define the treaty. it's a very ill defined who owns compromise control of the waters around it. the norwegians think they do. but they are not sure. so a couple things that there is really interesting. when his we've got a whole bunch
12:04 pm
of communications and electronic satellites that go around the earth like this called polar orbits. svalsat is so close to north pole you can control those tablets every single time he goes over the north pole and that's what these domes are. there's about 60 domes up on this plateau and they've got good workforce, internet. the internet works better there than it does at my house. and it is a place where you can really do space control. think of everything that runs off of space. this is up in the arctic. the other part for anybody, to get any international affairs students, a little scientists? we all know about nader. norway is a part of nato. with article v? you raised your hands i'm going to ask you. what is article v? okay, who else can tell me? what student can tell me what article v is?
12:05 pm
[inaudible] exactly. so it's an attack on one is an attack on all. i'm paraphrasing but that's basically it. you have this island up here not totally defined. the norwegians, valued number of nato really think it's desperate the russians have a settlement on your. and the russians go and poke at the norwegians pretty hard. in fact, their norwegians that that the deputy prime minister of russia who was under sanctions because of ukraine incident was on svalsat. how did they find out? through the media. so they were not really happy. do you think that that the premise of russia just accidentally ended up there? no bigger was a message. so the russians, this is what they do. they poke and they find weaknesses and to look for splits and seems in the alliance. so here's something going on in the arctic of increased human
12:06 pm
activity, strategic space and now it's kind of ground zero in the russia versus europe kind of pushing and shoving matches. everybody says the russians would not be that dumb, we wouldn't be that dumb, you know? s.o.b. all said before world war i. nobody would be that dumb to get into something like that, and we did. one thing i've learned in 32 years in the navy is never underestimate the power of people to make miscalculations. >> does this work speak was yes. >> i'm kind of diverting the conversation somewhere else now but knowing very well from your study everything from what i've heard, week 30 understand the direction to which our climate is having. i think it was yesterday when i heard a statement that was made and it says that if insects were to die tomorrow, life on earth
12:07 pm
would cease to exist within several years. if humans would die tomorrow, life on earth would a flourish in several years. so my question to you is how do we as human beings, can we reverse our climate or camera only slow down what seems to be the inevitable? thank you, and thank you for coming. >> it's a great question and the answer is, yes, we can if we want to. if we decide we have the will. i mean, that's the great question. will we have the will? sometimes we have seen people action are collectively pretty smart and we did some pretty smart things. but, unfortunately, we also have seen where people sometimes are collectively not so smart. i wrote an op-ed in science last summer. i called it ghosts of the past
12:08 pm
and i related our lack of action on climate change to the european powers got themselves into world war i which everybody said couldn't happen at all this. but was a tremendous amount of hubris and ignoring the risks and we ended up with an awful situation. but i'll talk about, i brought this light up because it gets to my, okay, what can we do? the first thing we know it want to go viral on the internet what do you need? cute cats. i don't have any cute cats come on somebody to have acute llama. the other use the llma. the first is learn. the basics. there's something that the american association of investment for science put out called what we know about climate. what we know. it's like 16 page and it's got about the figures into. it's written a as a think the
12:09 pm
grade 11 or grade 12 level. if people read that you would know everything the general public needs to know about climate change. you would know more than 95% of the people. the national academies and the world's as i put out a 30 page that is written about at the 12th grade level and now you're up to the 99 percentile of knowledge. it's not like i've got to be micromanaged. no. there's literally probably the amount of time that you sort of spent on to commute. you can read in a double working out a sufficient citizens working knowledge of climate. i'm not trying to troll for people to get masters degree at penn state in climate science. the second l is basically local action. and local action, what can you do. i would just give a little story. we move from washington, d.c. to penn state. got a budget like everybody else
12:10 pm
does when you go buy a house. our choices will get a really big, nice house that was about six or seven miles away from the university. i drive everyday. why we could have a smaller, somewhat older house that it was within walking distance of my office. that's what we chose. and being able to as time and finances have allowed, with upgraded to windows. we found a couple pieces that it was what i call the pennsylvania rural style of architecture which means there was no installation. so we put insulation and. that really helped. and we basically tried to build it so that it is energy-efficient. i don't know that i can get solar on the i think i would have do not in a persistent and they don't seem happy about that but then i would have much better saw it exposure. they seem to be grumpy about that. so it may not do that. but there are things you can do
12:11 pm
when you buy your next car. think about the gas mileage. i'm not saying that chuckie just have a bicycle and get rid of whatever. if you're working on a farm you probably need a pickup, okay, that's fair. but if all you're doing is taking your kids to the hockey game and a soccer game and you're in jacksonville, florida, where it never snows, maybe you don't need a pickup or a big suv. maybe you get something that gets 35 or 40 or 45 miles to the gallon. this is not live in a cave and wear a hair shirt or anything. but what can you do? there's a ton of stuff. in rough terms i think we as americans, we all, we waste about a third of our energy, a third of our food from a third of our water roughly. i just try to think of what little things can i do that sort of knock that down. and my perfect?
12:12 pm
no way. i would be the last person to say i am perfect. there's local action you can do. the m i realized as little geeky, form my site for and we did a very good job of monitoring the earth to understand any consistent sort of scientific times series way how things are change. if you don't know how things are changing it's hard to see how they're changing. so the m is monitoring and that's just supporting nasa and cannot intermissions because they get beat up by congress a lot. and then the a is advocacy. the way i look at this is whenever you come and to use the broad you, have an opportunity to engage with elected officials really at any level from the federal on down, my question is, sir or ma'am, what are you doing to stabilize the climate? so that's not do you support revenue neutral carbon tax, do you support cap-and-trade.
12:13 pm
it's like dating 101, don't ask a yes or no question. what you do is ask an open-ended question, you might get a thoughtful and sure that even if you did not get a thoughtful answer, what you get is somewhere in the back of that politician's brain its registered like you cared enough to ask about this. if enough of us do, then congress probably will not lead on this issue by taking the lead. they will follow the voters because they want to get reelected. right now, i hate to say it about right now this issue just doesn't really register that much. there's a few people committed, few people think it's all be, you know what. most of the rest of the people come it's like watching the dishpan sort of slosh around. is within. we need to have enough advocacy to say yes, this is important, especially in places where you have a politician who's like on
12:14 pm
the center or even better yet, center right so that they feel, he or she feels like i'm not going to get fired by the voters if i stick my hand up and say you know, maybe we need to look at this thing. there's a guy, a congressman in upstate south carolina and in 2010 he basically said you know, and he's hard-core conservative, he can quote the bible with the best of them, all that kind of stuff, and he said maybe these guys are not crazy, the science guys. maybe we should at least figure out what it is they are saying. and basically the voters gave him a blindfold and a cigarette and they shot him in the next primary. so now he's the climate hero but he's out a job, or at least out of congress. all the other people on the right of the republicans said i do want to be bob inglis. that wasn't any fun.
12:15 pm
i we are the ones who are going to ultimately provide the advocacy. we know intellectually this is super, super important for the long-term. if we ignore it today, tomorrow, okay, but it's super, super important but it's going to be for us ultimately in our system of government to give the congress enough top cover so that they can take those votes and not get fired by their electorates. so that's my way more than 2 cents worth but answers that. yes, ma'am. >> hi. i was just one what governmental policies you would first like to see from the united states?
12:16 pm
>> the first thing to note is i probably couldn't even get elected as dog catcher so it's not going to matter what that is. i would at least explore and i don't do the detailed policies i probably should like not see anything, but i will. i would explore some of the ideas that places or organizations like citizens climate lobby has with the so-called revenue neutral carbon tax. if you really constructed so that its revenue neutral, can you convince folks who think already that our government is either too big or serve should not be bigger, that that money in that goes back to maybe people who really do need help with her energy? but you at the same time basically probably remove subsidies for renewables, but at the same time remove subsidies for fossil fuels. there's big time subsidies for fossil fuel, for oil and for goal. and you price, have some sort of
12:17 pm
fair price for in fact the kind of damage that the carbon pollution is doing. so we sort of then dumping the trash. you select the monty python movies of medieval times or whatever, people just dumping the trash out their doorstep. that's kind of what we've been doing. we haven't been picking up the trash for 150 years. a little factoid. every man, woman and child in america every day generates about 120 pounds of carbon dioxide pollution. average it all out, that's the kind of number. that's a lot and we haven't done anything with the trash. we don't dispose of it. it's just out there. now they can't see it, we can't touch us we don't really see it that way. but it's a lot.
12:18 pm
it has been harming the ecosystem and again, why do care about the ecosystems? ultimately people depend on that somebody brought that up. if the bugs go away that's been. if it's just people that go away, maybe not quite so bad, and last year a person. there is real harm to the things that sustain us, freshwater, the ability to a productive agriculture, the ability to have our cities after centers of commerce in places when you are not going to get totally flooded out by the ocean. all those things. i'm actually writing something right now hope that it will be published next week that says we are paying a carbon tax today. those 14 points $6 billion in levies, that $60 billion for sandy, i mean, that's kind of a carbon tax that we are paying
12:19 pm
today. the question is are we going to pay a carbon tax every vote on our own which is going to keeping carbon taxes after bad things happen and this after the fact and we know we're going to do it. we're not going to walk away from new york city. we are not going to walk way from los angeles. we are not going to walk away from napa. we are going to pay. we are going to pay. we can either decide how we're going to pay or we can just be told how to pay after the fact. i would start with a. it may not be the best policy but i would start the discussi discussion. >> my question to you is he mentioned about reducing fossil fuel consumption or reducing co2 levels. my question is, do we have a
12:20 pm
viable alternative? other than using fossil fuels like oil consumption we also use it for plastics and so many other things. is there a way we can have a viable alternative? >> let me see, do i have that slide in this? it will be in the next one. what i think we look at on there is a couple things. one, despite what we've been doing a lot of the renewables are starting to become competitive just on price. now again how much of that is subsidy but then the fossil guys have subsidies and it's hard to disentangle all about. but certified themselves are getting close. maybe this gets back to your question, if i were king for a day, which i will never be, but if you look at how the u.s. over the last 50 or 60 years when we
12:21 pm
have a problem and we all say we have a problem, we tend to invest our research and develop it pretty heavily to try to fix that problem. so there is a graph and i'm afraid i just don't have it in this deck but it's maintained by the american association for investment of science and its a nondefense research and develop a. develop. i know this sounds really geeky and wonky and all that kind of stuff but what it is and it's kind of color-coded and you can see all those to the year, to the day when president kennedy said we're going to go to the moon. he watched the u.s. investment in space collect this and then go like this. you could see and the 1973 oil shock that, believe it or not, we put a lot more money into investing in energy but then it all kind of went away. so we have a lot of rhetoric in the president's second term. we have a congress who hasn't bought into this by and large. but when you look at the money,
12:22 pm
when you look at the budget on research and development, we really haven't done much. we've done a little but nothing that sort of alliance to what this country has done in the past when we say we've got a problem or we need to fix something. i think that's going to be another way to drive the cost down. we've seen this time and time again. if you invest heavily by and large you can try these costs down and you can get probably solutions that we are not even thinking of the the military has done this time and time again. gps, transistors, the internet, all that kind of stuff. but we are not going to do that at two or 380. we are just not going to get there. who else? go ahead. time for the bonus rounds. >> so i found it interesting that we talk but how climate change creates conflicts
12:23 pm
globally. when it is inherently a global phenomenon. an issue that affects everyone on earth. so i think it's kind of hard to say but i'm thinking that there should be more of a synergistic attitude toward climate change. it's great we can talk about policies, take under this country and get the public involved and reduce a little bit and the house kind of thing are all great but if you like this is such a global crisis that we need to be talking to other countries as well. what kind of policies or stand she would be taking? i don't have those global conferences on climate change but those are rather ineffective. i don't know if you have any other suggestions or how can we really unite countries to fight this issue? >> you're absolutely right. when you take a look at where the carbon pollution is coming from, and the u.s. is now number
12:24 pm
two pick we are not even the single largest country. per capita we are the single largest country but overall china has surpassed us. this is something, talk of evidence that this is -- who have as much evidence but it is a believe that america can still lead the world in many, many things. and the world at large cases is still work to american leadership. i was talking about whether we invest and all the way down to small-scale actions and giving out and support in congress. would in congress. with the click because of a position to the outside world, like they are serious now. that i think and then puts our negotiators at our senior politicians in and much, much stronger position to say okay, this is what we're doing and we're serious. when we share the technology?
12:25 pm
that's something we could do. if you want to set like a big harry goal, it's like how less about. 202100, 2110 would reassure non-carbon-based power to every single person on this planet at least like a little of what an average european has today. can you do that, can you not do that but not go the whole bunch of coal-fired think but it's not only the building of non-carbon. it's how do you store the energy can help you move the energy? those are things we could invest. so i think it starts at home with credibility this otherwise it's talk, talk, talk, but you guys are not doing anything. once you have that i would use american leadership and maybe this has quickly not but i do believe americans can still lead. we've got to have the credibility to do that. we can be the laggard until
12:26 pm
everybody else they should be fixing this problem. how are we doing? okay. one last question. any last questions? >> i appreciated me this question because that brings us back to something i was asked a number of minutes ago. and that is it seems to me that climate change is scientific problem, political problem, economic problem. and it's also a moral problem. it's a moral problem for the following reason. if boston or miami or houston face rising sea levels, we have the technology and the money to respond. this is my adopted country the naslund said technology that it might respond, white house and the netherlands was 18 feet below sea level but i was not
12:27 pm
fearing for my life. a number of countries around the world that are going to be severely threatened i think by rising sea levels have neither the technology with the money to resist. bangladesh and the maldives would be just two examples. so one piece i would appreciate your commenting upon would be the moral dimension of climate change. >> it's a wonderful comment. the reason i put this light of this i think we have seen, and i labeled it a good news very intentionally, is we have seen in the last couple of years more and more different groups, from their perspective, including a moral perspective, i work with this group called catholic the climate covenant. it's this guy named dan, a layperson, super guy who runs this. the pope had his encyclical, for
12:28 pm
osha to norfolk on a panel with a couple of bishops talking about that. i would do the science security thing and they would say okay, this is what the pope thinks and does what it's a moral issue if you're a follower of catholic teachings. same thing with the evangelicals. i'm doing a panel with some jewish organizations in philadelphia in about two months. so what i've seen, and a moral component a religious component, let's say that's 12:00 the even sort of go a round. the insurance guide for insurance reasons is doing it. another moral component, it's kind of a kooky simple ideas but the divestment of fossil fuels from universities. harvard do that. the president of harvard, my
12:29 pm
personal opinion, was pretty condescending to the people who started it. she said don't worry, children, we know what we're doing. fortunate the student said no, i don't think you do, man. and they're going to keep pushing of that. the health aspect. i talk about the second aspect. chasing ice, dramatic, if you don't live all my data, i watch chasing ice. it's pretty impressive. and yes, i do know my polar bear floating out on the ice because in all fairness environmental movement has been talking about this issue for decades. hank paulson, risky business. this is kind of thing we've got to know the price, we've got to know this. i think it's a very, very useful to have all of these coming talking to their stakeholders with credibility. las..
12:30 pm
and how to improve homeland security. first he will speak to the audience in conversation with "the wall street journal" just getting under way on c-span2. >> so far we have hosted marco rubio the senator from florida, jim webb former senator from
12:31 pm
virginia and most recently hillary clinton former secretary of state. today we are pleased and honored to host the governor of new jersey chris christie. governor christie was elected governor in 2009 and before that served as u.s. attorney attorney for the district of new jersey from 2002 to 2008. in today's conversation will be conducted by jerry the washington bureau chief of the washington bureau. he's held a job since 2002 and is the author of the weekly column in "the wall street journal" capital journal. the scenario first we will hear prepared remarks from governor christie and after which he will take off some questions from mr. sieg and after which questions from the members of the the council and foreign relations so with that let me welcome the governor to the podium, governor christie. a costco
12:32 pm
>> i appreciate the for him and appreciate the input from a number of members of the council but have been fortunate enough to receive in this campaign thus far. the united states faces problems today all around the world and they are worse now than they've been almost everywhere since 2008. i think the biggest problem, america's largest problem we face a fundamental and crippling lack of leadership. the american people feel that and they are angered as it comes from many different causes, the root of their anger is the sense that they feel in the lack of leadership in washington, d.c.. it reminds me very much of the late 1970s right here in 2015.
12:33 pm
if you look back then americans were angry and not happy as well. the weak economy and hostages of iran and the president who told us that it has to sell a. for american history or for the goals around the world. around the world president a fought for the american people first, for their protection and their interest first, not for the un crowd, not for the un editorial page but for the
12:34 pm
admiration and respect of the american people. they ridiculed him as a cowboy and blatantly said that they were starting a war and he would leave the world if he became president because of the nuclear annihilation. what happened was the leadership in the period of economic growth and history and the peace and stability of the world. that's what the strong leadership can do and that's what they did under ronald reagan and that's what it can do now. they gave me two great lessons about politics.
12:35 pm
he talks about how essential it was in leadership to tell me all the time the great leaders live much more than they speak. and i said why do you think that makes the most effective leaders because he said he wanted the followers. remember something come across a leader without followers is just someone out for a walk. it's true today as well. and i said i've said this publicly before and i will say it again. it will be marked by one phrase more than anything else often wrong but never in doubt.
12:36 pm
they won over the american people by listening to what their concerns were and what their interests were and what their fears were. and in the american interest. or anyone else or at home. the most recent has come up with syrian refugees now let me be clear about this, any policy that meant to be successful in the united states the most they must have the broad support of the american people. if it's not seen in the american interest is unlikely. three of their going overseas and criticizing folks here at home who have raised genuine concerns about the safety and security of america under this policy.
12:37 pm
for me i will be quite clear when the fbi director stands up and says that he cannot assure the american people that the refugees can be effectively dead in the conversation for a moment, we cannot allow ourselves at a time of great peril to put ourselves voluntarily at an even greater risk just because there are some folks believe that it will make the country look better here and around the world. i have a large muslim american population in the state i think it is the second-largest muslim american population in the state in the nation behind michigan. and what i will tell you is the muslim americans could nearly -- nearly as sensitive as some of the people in the opinions and places here in washington or the white house belief they are. they are muslim americans and they understand the safety and security of their families at risk just the way the safety and security of the catholics are at risk, protestants are at risk,
12:38 pm
buddhists are at risk when the homeland is not safe and secure. this is common sense. i know the fbi director. i worked with him as u.s. attorney in new jersey when he was u.s. attorney in manhattan. that is what passes for foreign policy when you are a u.s. attorney even with the southern district of new york. i knew him as my boss as the attorney general and i now know him as the fbi director. he is one of the fairest most competent and competent people in public service when he stands and says he cannot assure the mayor can unit can people the president should be a leader and listens, and listens to the professionals he's placed around them. when the fbi director says it is capable then we can revisit the policy the american people can support but instead with the president decided to do is try to belittle those that have a
12:39 pm
differing opinion. it's not good enough just to disagree your smaller, less. that is and what a leader does. the leader at times to persuade. the leader attempts to console and to bring people have different opinions in to find a common ground. a real leader doesn't stand up and belittle the leaders of states all across the country that he pretends to lead. i don't care any less about the widows and orphans of the more than the president president is coming off one bit less. but my focus is different than his. my focus is on the widows and the orphans in the united states. my focus is on those of september 11. they live with me everyday. they lived around the every day in the state and 14 years later
12:40 pm
for everyone in this country, but for me, it is a dalia occurrence to look into the eyes of the people who lost their husbands and wives, fathers and mothers, sisters and brothers, sons and daughters on september 11. their pain is no less today than i was 14 years ago. their loss is no less today than it was 14 years ago. and the goals and the intent of the president has to be first and foremost for the widows and orphans in american soil. first priority of the president of the united states and so, the president i believe has lost his focus in an attempt to justify the failed policy and maybe an attempt for those he's hoping to favor with around the world but he's lost focus and that's why
12:41 pm
he's lost the support and why the american people don't support this policy not only because it doesn't make common sense but because the focus of up first priorities should be. we can keep them safer as well and the president is going to want to keep his word that he gave over four years ago in this regard. we should have two try to set up safe zones to keep them safe inside syria. they want us to follow them into the abyss. it doesn't make sense to the american people there are other options to follow. the president are willing to follow them. it doesn't mean that those of us would that have a different opinion needs to sit down and keep quiet. i think it is more important that we stand up and be heard as
12:42 pm
much as it bothers the president he will have to continue to hear us even if he won't listen. you won't listen. and on the topic of listening, isis despite everything we've seen in the last 12 or 13 days the president and his administration continue to minimize the threat of isis. the president called them a group of killers who are good at social media. the secretary of state just yesterday said they are not 10 feet tall. this is reminiscent of the president's characterization not quite as long ago. i would be fascinated to see the president to paris and speak to the families who lost their loved ones 12, 13 days ago and told them isis is just a group
12:43 pm
of killers that are good at social media. it's fascinating to see the secretary of state go to the parisian families and tell them. this is just a transparent attempt to justify a field policy. the president should admits that he underestimated the nature of the threat, the severity of the threat and has come up with a strategy to be able to confront the greater threat often wrong, never in doubt. you can see through his comments not just on syria that isis this is a continuing theme of the administration and the foreign policy. continue to deny reality. it reminds me of the old country
12:44 pm
song. there's only so many times you can say that to the american people and have them believe it. there's only so many times you can see that as president say that as president of the united states and not continue to lose that ability and as a result, support. listen to the american people and their common sense. the threat is not minimal and the actions and the words that try to characterize it as minimal or not only naïve, but they are gravely dangerous. this is evil and, everyone come and we can never allow this to take hold in our country and we can never be willing to allow it to live among us. it is the antithesis of what it means to be an american to willingly participate in this. it's visited too many places and
12:45 pm
we can all go through the list of cities where isis has already struck. i don't know if they are 10 feet tall but they are looking pretty tall in those cities and i don't want them to look past all were anywhere near that talking to cities like new york or washington, chicago or los angeles, san francisco or minneapolis. i am a former prosecutor, a former prosecutor in the post-september 11 era. i was nominated by president bush. i was named to the job by the white house on september tenth, 2001. the next day wildlife did what she had done for 20 years, got up in the morning, left the house by 6 a.m., drove to the train station, took a train to
12:46 pm
the station, took a pass to the world trade center and walked to her office two blocks from the world trade center. this morning i took the day off and i've been named to a new job today before and decided to spend the day at home and take my children back and forth to school. we had three@eight, five and one. took them to school, came home and when i got from home the first building was on fire. i called my wife to ask her she was and she said it's no big deal some commuter plane flew into the building don't worry about if we it we are working not paying any attention to it coming near the fire engines outside of your taking care of it. the second plane hit the second building and she said to me they are evacuating us to the basement. i will call you back as soon as i can. five and a half hours later still hadn't heard from her. the buildings had come down. all types of stories turned out
12:47 pm
to be an accurate but we didn't didn't have the time about pipe bombs and explosions in lower manhattan, the people evacuating. i sat at home over and over again trying to call her but not finding her. and as a golf near the time i had to go pick up my children of school, our children of school. i started to think about these things. if i don't hear from her what am i going to tell the kids when they ask about mom because so many of the children at school and parents at work in lower manhattan and the school called and told them of the attack. they are going to ask about them on as their mom as soon as they got to the car. started to think about what kind of life is who is going to have without my best friend and would kind of single father was i going to these three young
12:48 pm
children? those thoughts were replicated over and over again, tens of thousands of times where i lived. five minutes before i left to pick up the kids the phone rang and it was mary and she was caked with dust and dirt in a bar further uptown where she finally found a pay phone to get in touch with me. the first call received at home is a neighborhood lady who mary had helped her husband find a job after he lost his job months earlier. the child she helped in a place called euro brokers on the 44th floor of the world trade center. she asked have you seen frank. did you hear from him or communicate with them and she
12:49 pm
hadn't. she said i'm sure he's just in a hospital somewhere and hasn't been able to get in touch with me at. we knew them in our hearts as we know now that there were no hospitals in and almost no survivors. we see her at church still have three sunday into the gym in the church is now named after her late husband. we were at the funeral. our oldest son's best friend, his father worked at fitzgerald and we know the results of that and now for 14 years since, we've watched a young man growing up and spent a lot of time at our house. every year since they spoke on his face that page on his father's birthday he puts his father's picture with one simple sentence underneath it, we will never forget you.
12:50 pm
i fear that this administration and many parts of the country have forgotten. i can't forget. i see it in the eyes of people in my state everyday. the loss is significant and it never goes away. the real leaders have to govern in the world it really is. and i wish the president would enter with us into that world. that's the world i've been trained to see through my personal x.. to the next seven years i spent as a prosecutor prosecuting planned acts of terror in my
12:51 pm
state but because we took the steps we need to. we would prevent future attacks from happening in the future deaths from occurring in future families from suffering the loss and the pain that i see right in my hometown to protect the american interest first and foremost if we don't take care of ourselves, no one else will. we don't need a global warrior to protect the business and academia. we need a strong america to protect the interest of the american people in a strong nation states around the world that will assure the world stability. this nation is our home. it's where our children are born, where our grandparents are
12:52 pm
buried in our homes and neighborhoods have to be safe and secure. they have to be in a place where families believe that we can reach our fullest potential and despite whatever the president says, do we feel that we today? do we feel we are as safe as we can or should be and do we feel that our government is acting in our interest and to provide the safety and security or do they have another agenda that they have placed in front of it? if the government is paid to be on our side, not working for other interests but to work work and our interest and today i don't believe that is the case. ronald reagan used to say we are the drivers of this government, not the other way around. national security is not a privilege, it's not an option.
12:53 pm
it's a fundamental right of the people of this country and we must never forget that. people forget that in all kinds of different aspects, today i think. some people think any treaty was negotiated by interest is something we have to sign onto. i say the proof is in the pudding. it has to be in the interest of the american people. some people believe that borders have become outdated and they don't believe in nation states. the belief in a post-american world. even an anti-american mindset. most of us just utterly reject that. we don't believe in our core that's true. we recoil from it to speak out against it. even when it becomes politically incorrect to do so. this means we have to stand up against those types of statements and feelings no matter how often they are expressed and no matter what publications.
12:54 pm
we have to put it in the interest of the average american on the front burner and their interest and concerns. i'm not one of i am not one of those pessimists believe that washington is beyond repair. if it is properly lead and run it will serve the interest of the american people. if i had the interest of being president people always have critics. that's fine. i've been through the fire over and over again and they managed by call lovingly and unruly state. there's nothing good is ever easy in new jersey. but you can walk through the fire and come out on the other side if you stick by your principles. always and political campaigns there's an emphasis you can be exciting and attractive and wonderful. it is untarnished.
12:55 pm
but it's untested. it's not necessarily reliable. it seems fabulous until the moment comes when you need experience. experience in the bureaucracy to experience these income adversaries, experience staring down unfair attacks from the media, experience from eating policies that will actually work let's look at what the legacy is in the experience that it's brought us record number of people in the workforce, record number of people on disability. obamacare more than double the international debt increased, not decreased the racial tensions in the country and in the foreign-policy it's been
12:56 pm
inconsistent and ineffective. think of some of the things the president told us in the past few years because the borders are more secure than they have ever been. we claim that after mubarak was on to the middle east would be a safe place. he said al qaeda was on the run and that isis just hours before the attacks in paris he said that isis was contained. all these things come every one of them turned out to be wrong. this is the problem. the new and experience allows you to see the world as we want to see it. as a fantasy, not the way the world really is. we can't afford to have another person behind the desk in the oval office to see it as he sees
12:57 pm
it. we can't afford to elect another president without the requisite experience and values that our founders enshrined in the declaration and constitution. one turn in the united states senate has proven to be woeful training for the oval office especially when most of the term was spent running away from big issues and running to words the presidency. we can't abandon protecting the borders because political heat gets too great. we cannot cast a vote that favored the national security and intelligence capabilities because it is fashionable to do so at a time of seeming safety. that isn't the type of leadership that america needs in a dark and dangerous world. i stood up last spring against the restrictions that were
12:58 pm
proposed for one very simple reason. because i know that the policy works. it's easy to theorize and debate in some subcommittee in the basement of the capitol when you've never been responsible for implementing those policies or making those decisions. when you've been given a response ability, it becomes a lot harder to get into the fashion of the day to the political movement of the moment decide if the presumed political adversaries when you think you may have in the future. i made these decisions. i used the patriot act. i have seen the indispensable role intelligence plays in preventing attacks on the american homeland. the congress and the president made a grave mistake not only in
12:59 pm
restricting the ability to do the work but also at the same time to demoralize the spirit and degrading to conduct of america's intelligence officers and law-enforcement officers. this has led to the definition of the effectiveness of the and its community and it has led to the loss of spirit and of the law-enforcement community and once again i agree for the fbi director who has said repeatedly that there is a wind blowing through law enforcement in this country is not only affects what happens on the street of ferguson or new york or los angeles or chicago, but it affects their ability to interdict the plans in conjunction with federal agents being put out by terrorist groups. morale is not divisible in law
1:00 pm
enforcement or the intelligence community. >> and the actions of the last year by this administration and some collaborators in congress of both parties has made our world less safe. when i have this had this argument with senator paul in the stage in august folks may be understood the argument eliminates after paris significantly more acute. the leader has to have the will come has to have the will to be capable of standing up in criticism that will come from all fronts. many policymakers in washington along with many leaders in the press has gotten into the lazy habits of assuming that any policy is popular to the american people must not have
1:01 pm
been totally thought through. cynic sure that the fbi can't effectively defend. if you express skepticism towards any type of trade agreement you are accused of wanting to shut down trade around the world. if you insist that we enforce the immigration law you are accused of nativism. an effective leader cannot be intimidated if what you believe in your heart and let come out of your mouth and you stand for. you can't lead by by having your finger up in the air seeing which way the wind is blowing. where that wind is blowing the wind is blowing insight of the united states or a prosecutor ocean towards the united states. so let me be clear, no one is
1:02 pm
advocating a return isolationism and protectionism the 1930s no significant group of americans want a policy like that and i don't either. but what they do want and what they are entitled to is thoughtful, prudent leadership is recognizing this country is our home and we decide to delete cookies or pleaders of constantly look out for our interests in the dangerous world. even if that means taking action that are not popular with certain portions of the opinion making society in this country. see, i think that in times like this, that is the truth that should be self-evident. those are the truths that form the foundation of how elite in this country. those are the self-evident truths of the american people and they must be in the government and the leaders.
1:03 pm
there are some that seem confused by the current political season. they don't know what to make of it. they say they can't figure out why the american people are expressing some of the concerns they are expressing. we need to listen and not try to rationalize. listen to their frustrations and their anger. it's based on the ineffectiveness of the policies they see, the ineffectiveness of the government that they see, the ineffectiveness of the government that they are paying for and the sense of the drift that they feel from the country and government whose leaders are unwilling to make a difficult decision to take the stance that needs to be taken whether they
1:04 pm
are popular for the moment or not. i understand what's happening here. i understand anger and frustration. but from new jersey, of course i understand anger and frustration we live for anger and frustration in new jersey. maybe that's why we understand the american peoples complete detachment from what happens here. they don't think anyone here is listening anymore. and there are two ways to react when they think people are not listening to you to keep quiet and go away or to yell even louder unfortunately we have both going on right now at the same time. we have scores of people detaching themselves in the
1:05 pm
political process in this country because they feel like they will never be heard to mutter how loud they yell that we have a group of people who do leave the hell with that, i'm going to yell louder and louder and louder. if i don't respond to this dynamic, our way of life will be buried by it. we need to listen and lead and not be polling every question that confronts us. let's ask in our hearts and we really stand for. the answer i believe has to be that we start putting forward policies both here and abroad that the american people and their interest as they see it first and if we do, then the possibility of uniting the
1:06 pm
country again regardless of the ideological differences and regardless of the religious and ethnic differences. we can unite the country that will not be united by someone actually talks. it has to be united by someone who listens first and gives voice to the people that they represent. that is the type of leadership that i propose for the country not only because it is good politics but much more importantly, is the only way to bring a spirit of country back to its senses that tomorrow will be much better than yesterday. if we do that than we have an opportunity to bring the country back together again. i would be happy to answer your questions. appreciate it. [applause]
1:07 pm
>> thank you governor christiana council members here and also those that are participating by teleconference in the country and around the world we heard from some of them later in the question and answer provided. i'm going to take advantage of my advantage position of moderator. then i will open up to questions from you all and some from people that are listening in. let me start with you coming you talk about the battling devices obviously. down the street this morning the president from grants was here presumably asking about ways to increase u.s. and french efforts against isis and to create a better international effort. in and the administration right now, what form would the be american participation in the effort to take? >> first off, we are inheriting
1:08 pm
the situation that has been allowed to get so far out of control that limits our options and that's the first concern. i would hope france and invokes article five. it seems that mrs. clinton won't use the term radical islamic terrorism because she thinks that somehow this would be insulting to the rest of the muslim world. i think it is clear fighting -- clarified. by definition then you're not going to warm up the rest of islam.
1:09 pm
i have appointed muslim americans and high-ranking positions in my administration and the judiciary these are good, faithful americans. confusion is only created select talk about what we need to go to war with because let's remember something they are trying to limit our freedoms. so of course the administration would work with the nato alliance to bring the full effect that we could have both diplomatically and militarily from the intelligence perspective to be able to do what we need to do to bring isis to a conclusion that feels a need to be honest with the american people but because of the situation we have inherited, but this is great to take a very long time time and it isn't green to be something that happens overnight, it just isn't. and i've heard some people say this.
1:10 pm
this is the way that it's going to look and that maybe true but i may be true but i think that certainly in terms of length of effort, and any leader we need to prepare the american people for the fact that this isn't whether it's handled diplomatically or just from impotence effort or combination of the three. does that mean the western troops on the ground and is there some concern that that's what isis once to draw the western response to validate the narrative that this is a crusader versus the true believers and that it's a trap essentially? >> the trap is always set. the fact that this has to be done carefully and that's why i think that working with nato isn't the only thing we need to do. we need to work with our allies and release this as well and quite frankly, they are
1:11 pm
suspicious of what american interests are in the middle east and what the motives truly are and when they count on us for friendship they look at what's happened with the iranian deal and with what's happened in the public interaction with israel. i don't think that this is a nato operation. i think you have to work hard to bring the arab allies as well to avoid the very trafficked isis is looking to set. >> and president putin? >> what does chris christie say? >> i think we could get there eventually. but you have to understand the limits of our patients. he's reaching the limits of our patience. >> but would you be partners in
1:12 pm
syria? >> his priorities are different and this is where some other candidates i think have a naïve thing about this. i don't think president putin had any interest in combating isis. it's to keep them there and to work with the iranians to do that and i don't think there is a real interest even after isis attacks on his own people. i think that they have limited capability and he's focusing that limited capability on his top theory to. >> sauced question before i turn it over the telephone that answer i would take from what you just said that you don't buy into the theory that what the u.s. and france in allies out to do right now is to accept the fact president assad would have to stay in office for anyone you longer to focus on the fight against isis.
1:13 pm
>> not everyone will focus on isis. they will focus on solidifying the position not just for the next few months but for the long-term. so you can't have an agreement with someone who was golden objective is completely different than yours and i don't think that we are at a point now where russia will maybe come round to a different point of view but i don't see that happening anytime soon, certainly not with the iranians either. so now, i think that the premise of the question is faulty so no i don't agree with that. >> let me ask i will start with you here's the deal. stand up, wait for the microphone and then tell us who you are and where you're from and ask the question and not make a statement. >> you can cut and if you want to. >> i am a wallflower. but we will see what we can do. >> i lived in livingston new
1:14 pm
jersey. >> as did i. >> on syria, who would you support in terms of the opposition, how would you make a coherent opposition to him that would be able to cite isis? and what do you make of the fact that our allies in saudi arabia and others have been concentrating most of the time in the last few months in bombing yemen and not isis? >> i will start at the end and then we go back up. i think they are spending their time on it for two reasons one is because they see at the moment as a greater threat to that and secondly, they do not think they can count on us and it would be a great reason to think they can't count on us. our policy is at best erratic. in terms of our interaction i think that if you spoke to the
1:15 pm
jordanians in addition to the saudis and egyptians, they would say the same thing. they don't really know what american policy is and they are afraid they are playing with iran if they don't know what that will mean for the long term interest in the region. and i think they believe that american resolve is only as good as the next one that comes out. and as long as that is the case, then why would they want to get in the lead with us when they are competing the parodies and interests? in the past two years or more to make this even more complete cave because i don't think that there is a coherent opposition at the moment and the problem is it's one of the great causes of
1:16 pm
isis through the way that he is conducted has conducted his politics with his own people and so, the president has now left us in a really difficult situation and it's what it always is. in the meantime, isis is getting stronger and their scope is not contained and the range is not contained and it's only going to get greater. i don't have an answer to to who you would put in charge but the answer is given how badly it is deteriorated in how all the presidents ignored festering problem it's left us with a situation that is at best too complex and problematic for the
1:17 pm
answer and one that is going to take a lot more time to figure out. but long-term, it doesn't help the problem. it creates other problems in the middle east as well. >> right here and then we will go back there. >> thank you. nelson cunningham. you spoke quite a bit about president ronald reagan but you didn't speak about the vice president, george h. w. bush, nor did you speak of about the most recent republican president george h. w. bush. i think that many of us can easily imagine that the arcs that you made today having been stated by president george h. w. bush that seems to come out of the same ideology. would you be a strong president would that give us the same foreign policy that he gave us ask >> i don't think that's the case. listen, concerning the fight on
1:18 pm
terrorism, yes. i think all the tools they need to have would be made available to us and that we have to make sure that we police those that use the tools. see the argument that we have this past spring and summer was that somehow the tools were inherently faulty. they are not. the tools are proven to be effective. there are always going to be folks operating in every sphere of life who are going to color outside of the lines. we see it every day. that doctors come about for years, accounts, that athletes. in every walk of life. it's tested and proven effective tools out because of allegations that somehow those tools could be used in a way that was unconstitutional. i still haven't seen the case
1:19 pm
made and it's usually when a case is needed to be by people that don't have the first idea what they're talking about. but the first idea about how to use the tools can't you hear about the data collection after the nsa you hear people talk about that and they extrapolated with someone reading your e-mails with your grandmother and listen on your phone calls from your life terry of course none of that was going on. but this administration had an agenda and it was to ratchet down and we did for the political opportunity to do it and call people into it. so, the issue is i would say that president george w. bush in combating terrorism and stopping attacks on american soil that record is pretty good. and as those people that participated as the united states attorney in the law enforcement side of that told one thing that happened on my watch model me that i would be ashamed of, something had been
1:20 pm
happened on my watch but i'm not proud of the interdict at least two significant plot of terrorism in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 using the tools that were available to us. if applauded the attack at fort dix either of which had the significant number of american lives. we need a president that understands this and how to do the tools. in a policy more broadly there's a number of ways that i would be different than president george w. bush. it might be most. i'm proud of the work that we did. there was a good old judge of two weeks ago.
1:21 pm
if you shut it down at that point how did you avoid that problem if you resurrected? spigots one federal trial judge he or she is welcomed in the opinion. >> there can be potentially depending upon the ultimate decision from a small tweaks or changes that could be made to address some of those. this was a wholesale abandonment. saying we are going to put this in the private sector. we are going to count on the phone companies and the data companies to keep this information and to make it successful to us immediately. i am a former federal prosecutor and when i subpoena the materials from verizon or at&t come it wasn't immediate or will this be. it's fantasy to think that the
1:22 pm
data would be nearly as effective if effective at all under the way that it's been a mandate. and let's face it it's going to prove to be in my opinion in the long run the intelligence failure. there are people from multiple countries in a synchronized attack that don't get together together and talk about 15 minutes before they put this thing together. that means it was intelligence version. on the part of the french intelligence and the european intelligence and american intelligence. and it's not a coincidence to me that this happened in the aftermath of restricting the programs and remember, also demoralizing the intelligence community that report came out in the senate democrats at the end of last year was a complete political instrument that did nothing more than to demoralize the intelligence officers all around the world and you cannot continue to do that and expect that those people are going to put themselves in harms way and
1:23 pm
do the dangerous dirty work that needs to be done to get this information as you continue to demoralize them and put them at risk and take the tools away from them at the same time. >> )-right-paren. >> george washington university. in addition to talking about terrorism, you've you also demoted to sue some -- to some concerns about trade. wondering if you have any concerns with a transpacific partnership and whether you see it as a geopolitical step to keep china pushing us out of influence in the pacific. >> it was negotiated by the barack obama administration. that is my specific concern. i haven't seen an agreement yet it that has been in the american interest. if so, i have great skepticism about this agreement. could i have skepticism about trade overall? know i won't trade agreement to be fair and the american people can support and i do think that the goal of having to expand the trade throughout the pacific
1:24 pm
especially in accomplishing with china is an important thing. but i wouldn't let this president negotiate to buy me a car because if he went into the car dealership to buy me a car his first word would be this is my friend chris. he's not leaving the show room today without a car to get [laughter] >> so let's negotiate price. [laughter] >> that's my concern. spec was returned to a question that came in [inaudible] it from new york. >> is up from bayer double -- >> to jihad and barbarism for the next generation of the territory under the islamic states of control and if so what would you do to ensure that they have access? who >> really, not really. i mean again but sounds like the
1:25 pm
world i wish it were then it is. i don't think they are interested in that. it's not accessible if you are asking what i use the american power to use it accessibly, no i wouldn't. >> right here and then back there. >> yes sir. >> governor come as president as president with changes what you seek to make in the current immigration policies? who >> a number. first going back to what i was saying on the remarks any chance the policy has to have the broad support of the american people? and the reason that in my view immigration reform has failed up to this point in the effort was
1:26 pm
made a summer or two ago but because the american people trust the government to actually do what they are going to save if they had a good reason. so i think the first thing we need to do is regain the trust of the american people into the way to do that is to enforce the laws we have now effectively and fairly. so we need to secure the border. that's only part of the issue and i can go through. i am not -- so that we can get this part out of the way, not a 2,000-mile wall guy. i don't think that makes sense having the privilege meeting a couple of times in the last 18 months. he he's paying for it. [laughter] even if it is really beautiful. if it has some efficacy to it on
1:27 pm
the border we need to use much more of our technology drones and stationary cameras and such so that it becomes expensive to be able to do it in moderation to activity. i would be and adding a lot more agents with our border patrol to try for those that are coming across the border in the public safety issue. but we have to remember, to back that the visa program is one of the biggest that the american people are upset about and that we invite people here for a period of time and then we don't keep track of them and they stay. listen, we are all went to be inviting people to the house for thanksgiving. it would be like if i woke up on saturday morning and i went upstairs to one of the guest rooms and they were still there. i invited them for thanksgiving, not for the weekend. [laughter] we have to find a way to make
1:28 pm
sure they don't stay. i got in a lot of trouble over this because i thought everybody in the media like i used english as a first language and so i said it's a federal express configure out how to track a package from the minute it leaves my doorstep and every step in between, we should be able to do something better with the visa program. now of course the wonderful folks say christy wants to try immigrants like packages and i went on cnn and they said you are talking about putting bar codes and chips in people when they come on the border? than the media complaints about the level of intelligence and the debate. it's really fascinating for me as a candidate. we need to go to a biometrics -- i don't want to put barcodes on people because we already have them. your fingerprints are your barcode and everyone has an individual one.
1:29 pm
and they should have to give that if you're over your visa you are over your visa status time that the mind that we say take the time to go home. if you deal with the southern border and you don't deal with the visa overstating the biometric system you are not going to be able to control that as well. >> you have to acknowledge unlike what some people think some people think it will work. sure people you are willing to enforce the law. i think one of the things people are most upset about this president you don't like the immigration law don't enforce
1:30 pm
it. you don't like the marijuana law in the country by the states have marijuana for recreational use. i don't get all that good for the enforce it. the wall we don't enforce today will be the law that we don't enforce today tomorrow if you don't like and then all of a sudden we have a real problem on our hands because he comes in word and not a way of life. i think if you wanted to words did it go towards fixing this problem you have to convince the american people before they give you greater latitude. none of which it would support right now because they don't believe that it's going to do but it's going to do. >> we we have time for one last question i just want to remind you that he before we do that but the conversation is on the record and i want to go further to back this time. [laughter] >> with all those cameras doing
1:31 pm
back there. >> thank you for the conversation. i wanted to follow up on the serious refugee question. former secretary chertoff said talking about biometrics and back to biometrics are run on the refugees and it's the most rigorous setting process we have. or you are you open to reconsidering the possibility of more refugees to be convinced it could be done safely and now condoleezza rice to former secretary of state said that presenting a bad signal when it could lead completed to the propaganda by blocking all refugees into the general said similar things. >> we have to review the different people. >> i know. none of them by the way you will notice of any responsibility today for ensuring the safety of the american people. >> so it is easy to theorize and
1:32 pm
be an academic about this. but they don't have any response ability. >> so, you know, when the fbi director told me he can do it, then i'll reconsider. but until then michael chertoff used to have my job as the u.s. attorney for new jersey and he said dhs secretary. but he has no response ability today for doing what needs to be done. >> and it's easy to say those things and people on television not to say them because it's the politically correct thing to say to them. that is the politically correct thing to say. believe me. i seem e-mails i've gotten and facebook posts and all the rest. the politically correct thing to say that the time not saying it because i have a responsibility. and by the way, the government has the response ability to let me do what i doing as governor and this administration doesn't
1:33 pm
inform governors when the police refugees on their state. most people don't understand. they say that's impossible. no actually it's happening. and the president when we were on the phone with him last week told the governors when that issue was raised he said we will try to do better. that's wonderfully assuring. if you were the governor of the state. the person that is responsible for the debate for the primary responsibility for telling us the law-enforcement capability at the federal level is the director of the fbi. the attorney general event has been relatively quiet about this. the director of the fbi spoke out before congress and said it cannot happen. they don't have the wherewithal in the databases at the moment.
1:34 pm
to me that is determinative. it's only not determined if you are your views are different. if your priority is to win a nobel peace prize and say okay that's your priority. what you want is the attack and a pat on the back from the world opinion shapers couldn't say otherwise. but if you're response ability to protect the lives of the american people that you represent, and you have the top law enforcement official in the country saying i can't have them it doesn't seem to me to be a hard decision. it only becomes hard when we decide to get all politically correct each other and send signals. what happens if one of these folks comes in and participate in the attack was kind of signals are we sending them? i guarantee there will be all kinds of people in this town that have the opinion to let folks in that will run for the
1:35 pm
hills. all of a sudden one of qualifiers that they wait a second. i said if this into and that and this and that and when you are in charge and have to be responsible, you don't have to run and you don't get to hide and you shouldn't run and hide now. it's my view because i have the response ability and i had response ability of law enforcement officers, too. when the fbi director told me that he can do this better and more effectively that changes the equation but up to this moment, we don't have that. we have a bunch of what used to be. i find the heavy role to play. go on television and say things and then when something goes the other way they go the other way because they don't have the responsibility to do it. i had a great deal of respect for all the people.
1:36 pm
[laughter] >> i have great respect for them, too. but they are not the ones that are responsible. and i'm telling you that's one of my biggest problems with the president. he is responsible. he should know better and should listen to the people he put in charge. i can't imagine he knows more than jim about this issue. i can't imagine a scenario other than which he understands and knows. so sometimes like i said in a speech even if it is contrary to what you want me to listen and i will tell you if something does happen where american lives are lost and the american public will and should be relentlessly unforgiving those responsible
1:37 pm
for having done the politically correct thing and not listen to the people that knew more than they do. >> thank you. it's been a pleasure to have you. plus christina [applause] [inaudible conversations] you can watch the remarks again on the website c-span.org "the new york times" writing about the governor's recent campaigning in new hampshire had line that it gives new life as
1:38 pm
he invokes fear. they write it's too early to tell how the terrorist attacks will ultimately reshape the topsy-turvy republican race but "the new york times" writes this much is clear as it brought sudden intensity, attention and focus to the one for candidacy of mr. christie for the first time the solid majority republican voters in the state that is new hampshire have a favorable group view of the governor according to the two poles. a remarkable turnaround from the depths of his unpopularity. that's from "the new york times" and on the c-span networks we have been asking all day whether you think the u.s. should join the anti-isis coalition with france and russia. a couple comments here the middle east should form a coalition to fight isis. james said yes the nation should in fact propose a resolution with russia for the security council on an immediate military force to be taken against. and there is more, they spoke.com and on that issue,
1:39 pm
they met with president obama today at the recent terrorist attacks in paris and the strategy for combating isis. but to just finished up a joint news conference at the white house and you can see that again tonight at eight eastern over on c-span. >> this thanksgiving weekend american history tv has four days of future programming beginning thursday at 4 p.m. eastern we will take you inside of the national world war ii museum in new orleans as we look back 70 years in the war and its legacy starting with the allied invasion of north africa through d-day the fall of the third reich and the war of the pacific curators and historians will share the experience of those that fought both fronts including african americans serving in the segregated military. friday night at eight road to the white house rewind it takes a look back at the presidential campaign of ronald reagan, bill clinton, george h. w. bush and michael dukakis then saturday afternoon, thomas, the president
1:40 pm
of the society of the honor guard on the history of the arlington national cemetery the war and the creation of the guard and the stories about some of the notable people who were buried at the cemetery. and sunday afternoon at four on the real america, the city's special report on the five-week battle with interviews from officers on the enlisted men and the combat casualty. american history tv all weekend and on holidays only on c-span three. next, jason the chair of the white house council on economic advisers talks about the economic indicators and other statistics the obama administration uses to track the overall health of the u.s. economy as well as the housing market played in the growing income and reducing economic inequality. he leads off this urban institute conference on housing.
1:41 pm
good morning, everybody. thank you all for being here. i am -- i feel a little bit like a proud parent when i come to these things. i want to say thank you to this amazing partner, but especially i want to say thank you to the extraordinary team that or or glory has assembled with the leadership of the policy center and by great researchers there has literally located at the debate about the housing finance issues and really bringing out the time at the moment when policymakers and regulators and others are thinking about hard questions and bringing the new analysis to bear and also helping to explain those issues to the broader public to the hill and policy makers and to the media and i just couldn't be more proud of what they've accomplished in a really short time. we are going to start the day
1:42 pm
hearing from probably nobody we could find to get a better picture of where housing fits into the larger economy than the chairman of the council of economic advisers. jason has held the position since 2013 which he took after serving the deputy director of the national economic council during president obama's first term at the nec. jason's policy range on bringing an economic lens to the extraordinary range of issues always astounds me. he works on fiscal and tax policy, health economics, social security, domestic and international trade and globalization issues and he brings to the conversations every single one of them sort of a grounding in the data and analyzes facts. despite the various academic
1:43 pm
credentials and public education degrees some people would say that his greatest claim to fame is having once been a college roommate of matt damon. [laughter] and i i'm also told a colleague of mine did some googling last night and told me if you happen to spend time in washington square park in the 1980s he might have seen him performing in a park in the master juggler of burning torches which is a talent i never knew you had before and i look forward to you demonstrating that. perhaps not here though i don't think my insurance covers that. jason has been described as the ultimate walk for the nation's capital. and in a row he's got evidence to bear and debate inside and outside the administration with a range of issues from the safety net for the effects of stimulus, the affordable care and much more. i know from jason's work but he brings -- he starts every conversation as we like to do here with the data into the
1:44 pm
evidence that he also brings an astute understanding of the policy context and the world of what's doable, something that sometimes the academics are less attuned to doing and he brings a constant reminder of the people that we are describing in this data into their lives which makes it particularly powerful. >> for, we cannot start this off better than greeting my good friend jason. ' check [applause] >> thank you for that great introduction. ..
1:45 pm
>> and so it's that aspect of housing in particular, land use regulation that i'm going to be talking about today. the backdrop of this is a cyclical recovery of housing has continued to be quite strong. residential investment is helping to lead gdp growth, going out 4.6% annual rate for the last two years. housing construction continues to rise comfortably above
1:46 pm
1 million units per year. house prices are up which have cut the number of households that are underwater in half, relative to just five years ago. the rising housing wealth has also played an important role in what's been one of the bright spots that's driven the us economy forward through a set of global headwinds which is consumer spending. financial and market reforms have improved the sustainability of the housing market, although we continue to see credit growing more slowly than we would like, especially for many underserved communities, and that's been a big focus and push of the administration that a happy to talk more about later. as we have seen this cyclical recovery, it's brought into relief some of the bigger challenges we have in terms of affordability, a topic that
1:47 pm
urban has led in the analysis of sending out the fresno county in this country that has affordable rentals for the lowest income citizens that it has. and the other structural issue and the one that's closer related to that i'm going to be talking about is excessive or unnecessary lynches were zoning restrictions which have reduced mobility and dynamism, slowing productivity growth and raising inequality. now, of course there's many benefits to land-use restrictions i should say at the outset. they consider legitimate purpose in terms of health or safety for the environment. but the growth of them has been excessive and has created what economists call economic rents excessive return to one factor of production above and beyond
1:48 pm
its cost and those economic rents in turn lead to the economic problems i talk about but also create an opportunity that if you can introduce more competition, reduce barriers, you can actually improve efficiency and growth while reducing inequality at the same time. that in some sense is the holy grail of what one is looking for in economic policy. and there are other areas like this i've talked about, for example, the rights of occupational licensing creating a barrier to people of getting jobs and moving between jobs. the discussion that i'm going to have with you is one that has been long history and goes back at least to life and death american cities published over 50 years ago. and one that economic research has increasingly filled in the picture. so i will start first with the
1:49 pm
backdrop to all of this outside of housing area which are it most affects. the first is the rise in inequality. in 1973 more than two-thirds of the income went to the bottom 90% of households. by now that's fallen to about 80% of the income going to the bottom 90% of households. at the same time that the pot has been distributed increasingly unequally it's actually grown more slowly. so productivity growth was growing at about 2.8% per year in the decades up to 1973, and in the decades since then productivity growth has slowed to 1.8% per year. and that overtime accumulates to a dramatic difference. at the same time he has seen a
1:50 pm
variety of measures that feminism of the economy decline. the rate at which -- dynamism -- in which people move to states and across states move between jobs, the rate that people change their industry or the occupation, businesses create or destroy jobs or new business are created, all of those have gone down steadily for many decades. we don't fully understand all of those trends in inequality, productivity, and and dynamism. but what i'm going to try to argue today is that land-use restriction and the growth of them have played a role in all of those here so let me talk first about the growth of land-use restrictions are we don't have detailed direct nationwide data on this question
1:51 pm
over long periods of time, but we have a range of observation, circumstantial evidence come and particular case studies, all of which tell a consistent story. and i'll start the story by looking at the difference between real construction costs and real house prices. and those group, you know, were roughly in tandem growing at about the same rate for several decades. and an even prior to the housing bubble, started a substantial divergence, and even after the bursting of the housing bubble, that divergence remains. within the last three years, housing prices, 56% above construction costs, that's 23 percentage points above the
1:52 pm
1990s gap. so that's one piece of evidence which is you can sell something for more than it costs to build it. the scarcity of land, either natural due to boundaries and natural features of the topography, or man-made entrance of zoning, playing a role. you also see if you look across a set of cities, this shows you how much higher your house prices are relative to your construction costs. you see places like anaheim, san francisco and los angeles have very high costs relative to how much it costs to build come and that the other in kansas city, detroit and milwaukee. this compares 1999 to 1989 and the fact that there are more dogs in the lower right and part of that graph come indicates there's more places that seem this ratio rise over this period
1:53 pm
of time -- dots. researchers have looked at these types of purchases have found that in the '50s and '60s the main thing driving house prices was construction costs, and since then land-use restriction have played an important role. when you look at particular places you see those. for example, and glaser and co-authors have looked at boston and carefully constructed measures of land-use restriction, observed been growing over time. you see it in places like new york with the rise of historic preservation districts. at a lot of this, at least some of this at least this potentially grounded in following much of the turmoil in the 1960s. you saw white flight to the suburbs and a set of zoning restrictions that consciously or unconsciously were attempting to
1:54 pm
reinforce and lock in the increased segregation that one saw in some dimensions. zoning, as everyone knows, reduces the supply of housing. when you have more land-use regulations you will have less construction. when you do things like increase lot size, you will have fewer permits. and this reduced construction is, drives up house prices, and the higher house prices, in turn, lead to more segregation which lead to a greater desire on the part of the people living in those communities to protect the values and to establish more land-use restrictions themselves. essentially you have, what is a cycle of rent seeking behavior
1:55 pm
that locking in peace sets of games. supply restrictions also in turn reduced affordability. and here we're looking at the wharton residential land-use regulatory steps out of places like boston that have a lot of constraints on the use of land have very low affordability. some of the cities i mentioned before like st. louis and kansas city are at the other end in terms of substantially more ability to build new houses and thus greater affordability. this affordability dispersion that we are seeing here is for a point in time in 2013. what's important to understand is that this affordability isn't
1:56 pm
distributed evenly across the country, but that overtime as well it appears to have grown. so land-use restrictions have grown more in some places than others. the dispersion and affordability has grown more in some places. than others. this trend towards greater land-use restriction is especially a concern right now, given some of the demographic and structural changes that are going on in the housing market. and you can see some of those changes in the next figure which shows that multifamily starts have no fully recovered and exceed the level that they were at prior to the housing bubble,
1:57 pm
while single-family starts are on the way up but haven't gotten back anywhere near their pre-crisis levels. there's been a range of research and debate around this set of questions with important contribution, including important contributions by the urban institute earlier this year in a report on homeownership and headship. but all of it finds a consistent trend that a range of cultural shifts of changing demographic structure are leading to a greater demand for multi-family housing, as well as the baby boom turns into the retirement boom, a greater demand for modifying houses for shared
1:58 pm
housing and then, of course, the famous millennials moving out of their basement and into rentals. all of this structural shift in the housing market runs right up against the land-use restriction that i've been discussing because those land use restrictions disproportionally apply to multifamily housing, to housing modifications, she shared living and to all of the types of things that we are already seeing more of an unlikely to see more of going for. and as a result those types of restrictions on supply could come when they come up against these other trend, even be more consequential going forward. so i want to talk now about why
1:59 pm
this matters for the economy. and watch as somebody who's focused, as the center indicated, covers the range of economic issues, -- sarah indicated, why the administration has made this an increasing focus of policy as well in terms of not just the specific goals of affordability and housing, but the broader goal of raising the incomes of middle-class families, of working families which depends on greater productivity, and reduce inequality. the most important economic observation is the place really matters, and conglomeration really matters. you can have cities like san francisco and boston that are
2:00 pm
really productive. and when people move to those cities, they can get higher wages for the same set of skills by virtue of living in a more productive city. and they can make the other people in those cities more productive as you get these conglomerations of skills, ideas, talent spilling over. into each other. as the result when you have that type of mobility that lets people go to those places, you can have greater productivity. you can see greater wage increases for the people that move to them, greater wage increase for the people that didn't because with less labor supply, supply demand can raise wages the places that were left behind. improved job matches, and
2:01 pm
ultimately competing away some of these rents in the economic sense of the term rents which of the extra money you get by erecting barriers to competition. all of these economic facts about the importance of conglomeration, the importance of mobility, the importance of place make, you know, evidence like what i'm showing you here, particularly scary. and this shows migration rates by distance. and you see both within counties and within states a very dramatic decline in people moving. and this decline is one that isn't easily explained away. it's something you see in a pretty broad-based wakeup not
2:02 pm
just driven by one particular group or one particular demographic change you see within demographic groups. so what this leads to is less of an ability for that sort of people to work out effectively for growth and for inequality. want to show you two papers which have tried to look at some of the consequences of this or some rice and you know, the first simulated the effect of 1% higher labor to nitpick something happens in your place that leads you to watch one more people. your economy strengthened, you innovative, something like that. did you compare the places include which have low housing regulations to the places in
2:03 pm
orange which have high housing regulation. which is used when labor demand goes up, the housing stock response in places with low regulations to a greater to create than it does in places with higher regulation. the house prices are of course the converse of that with a greater supply becomes lower prices. so the low regulation places see less of an increase in prices when they have an increasing labor demand. event ultimately all of the shows up in long-term employment, that if you're not pricing people out of the market you're able to attract more people to increase employment more. another recent paper looked at a similar type of economic question, but he looked at from the perspective of convergence. and in economic growth we
2:04 pm
generally expect that low income places will grow more quickly and they will catch up with high income places because they can take advantage of the differences in technology. they can to get finished of the fact that maybe they have less capital so they get more return to capital at the margin. this is something that you see across countries that are institutionally similar and historically have seen across states as well. well now let's look at this convergence toward. and in the '60s and '70s you saw a lot of convergence and you saw it across different types of states. and in general each year on average a lower income state would close 2% of the gap between it and a higher income state. land-use restrictions have grown, that convergence
2:05 pm
mechanism has continued for states that have less constrained supply, or last land-use restriction. but that convergence mechanism has broken down and even stopped for states with more constrained supply. because of that inability to move. this is something that can be quantitatively quite important for our over all economy. and in one recent paper, say, a more ready for done a lot to document the issues are talking about today, observed that from 1964-2009, the wage dispersion across cities increased by a factor of two.
2:06 pm
so remember we would expect that people can move freely you wouldn't see a lot of wage dispersion because people would move at that wage dispersion went into getting competed away. so that's another suggestion people can't move as freely as you would have in certain economic models. they did a counterfactual expert to look at what would've happened if from 1964-2009 workers and capital had moved so that wage dispersion had stayed at the same level that it was in 1964. and it had not increased over the period. and in that counterfactual experiment they found output would've been more than 10% higher in 2009 than it actually was. now, this whole bunch of details what could look at in this
2:07 pm
paper. it is very large employment effects relative to what one might have imagined, but if you shoot a sense of just how large these effects are. when i was taught about the productivity slowdown before, it was 2.8 to 1.8, so one percentage point slogan. it we're talking about something over a similar period of time that it is a meaningful magnitude relative to the over all that we're trying to explain. it's not just the level of output, but also mobility and opportunity. roger and his co-authors have document it even as inequality has risen, mobility hasn't. and that mobility varies enormously across counties.
2:08 pm
now, there's some arbitrage opportunities to fix in the counties with high mobility actually have affordable housing and relatively low rents and people could move to them and their fans, but many of the places with high mobility don't. they are much more expensive to live in, partly because the demand for living in partly because of artificial constraint on the supply of housing. so when you look at that geography of mobility and how much of that varies, getting people to be able to move across place is going to be an important part of the solution to increasing incomes and increasing incomes across a generation, and that something that this is getting away from. and it's getting away from it because zoning isn't distributed randomly across the country. it's actually correlate with
2:09 pm
those places that have higher inequality which are also the places that do have lower mobility. so you get that cycle of greater inequality, more constraints on mobility, and that in turn locking in inequality in the next generation. i've been focusing on a broad set of economic issues. land-use restrictions also have other impacts on the economy. there's a range of evidence that they lead to more dispersion in living which leads to more travel which leads to more climate emissions, and thus worsens our environment. there's evidence that they lead to more housing bubbles and more volatility and not just the housing market but as the result of that in the macro economy as
2:10 pm
well. and that they can also lead to the reduced provision of public goods being spread across the economy. so this has been an issue that we have been concerned about in the administration, and something the president is personally concerned about. it's something that treasury and others have been focused on. a lot of it, of course, plays out at the state and local level, and is appropriately within the policy per view of states and localities. it's not one major piece of federal legislation that will or should change everything that i've been talking about this
2:11 pm
morning. but what we think we can do is, first of all, help shine a spotlight on the issue, give more tools to help empower communities to make changes and make some policy changes that would help in that regard as well. so let me just briefly describe three of those. the first is this past summer hud finalized its affirmatively furthering fair housing rule. and what's exciting about this rule is that it will give communities the tools to in a much more granular way that i've done i in the few minutes i've been speaking with you this morning, document where these restrictions are, the consequences they have in
2:12 pm
communities and help create a better understanding, you know, of what they mean and what tools you have to deal with them. second, the administration would like to put money into helping to create incentives to solve this problem. and in our fy 2016 budget, the president proposed a $300 million initiative that would provide grants both as an incentive to local communities to encourage them to create, you know, more fluid, affordable opportunities for mobility as well as, you know, to help deal with some of the costs of making those transitions. and then the third effort that i wanted to highlight is that, you
2:13 pm
know, is that a bunch of this issue comes from the intersection of land-use restrictions and the structural changes that have led to more demand for multifamily housing. and so addressing some of the issues they multifamily market in particular are important in relieving some of these stresses. animal flick of the risk-sharing mortgage program, which is joint between hud and treasury, is designed to help unlock underserved communities as you've already seen the first transaction with new york city under that program, and we expect to see more. so i want to conclude with where i begin, which is housing is really important in its own right. it's the most important, it's a
2:14 pm
necessity for people. it's the most important asset that most households have. but it also has, you know, a broader effect on the overall economy. it has a broader cyclical effect and to place a disproportionate role in creating the recession that we just went through. and in the last two years, last several years, it's playing a disproportionate role in helping us get out of that recession, growing faster than the overall economy. but it also plays a broader structural role in the economy and it's something that, you know, we will be looking hard at a long with all the other things that are creating the economic rents, impeding competition, impeding mobility, impeding fluidly, impeding dynamism because we can't afford to leave any stone unturned in trying to improve the productivity of the
2:15 pm
economy and reduce inequality, expand opportunity and mobility. so thank you for your attention on this topic. [applause] >> and i'm happy to take any for a few questions. and there's a mic right next to you and if you could identify yourself. >> economic consultant. going back to your price, construction cost price chart, i'm wondering where the cost comes from and was captured in there? because certainly during the downturn, housing downturn, a lot of builders which argued that they were losing money. i would suggest they would making pretty good money and a lot of that, they are on very thin margins for making money.
2:16 pm
how does this chart address those issues? >> so first of all, it's a real, so it's adjusted for inflation. that's what it's flat, not going. it's going up at the same rate as everything else. second of all, the difference between the construction cost and the real house price isn't necessarily profit to the people building the houses. they had to acquire the land and if the land was more expensive to go to the types of land-use restriction, then the previous owner of the land got the difference between those two. so if you want to think about the returns to the construction industry are what you've been talking about, that isn't measured by the difference between the red and blue light. i don't think this story is inconsistent. and you also do see construction costs are increasing faster than inflation the last couple of years. not a lot faster. i personally don't come here supply constraints all the time
2:17 pm
for people in terms of labor. i don't see them so much in the data come in terms of the unemployed rates and the wages but, you know, maybe they aren't there a little bit. >> my name is jim gray. i happen to work at fhfa but i'm not asking a question in my work capacity. stump i won't answer in your work capacity than. [laughter] >> thanks. you talk about land registry as a monolithic i'm wondering and particular about some land registration. specifically designed to address affordability. could you differentiate between maybe land regulation that you see as more damaging and land regulation may be light in zoning that is not? >> i think that's a good point. if look at the $300 million grant program that i described that we proposed, that's not just reducing barriers but it also is designed to create an incentive and funding for measures like inclusionary zone.
2:18 pm
so i agree that this isn't just a matter of reducing barriers, or it's a matter of the taking active steps so that you can undo a lot of the trends that you've seen over many decades, and done right, land-use conflict a good rule. that's a good point and thank you for lighting it up speak back -- lighting it up. >> you were just mentioning that housing had a role in the recession which, of course, we all know. but that i think is after that that housing applicable in getting us out? i just want what you meant by that if you expand on that? >> sure. i just did a relatively simple point that you look at the last two years, housing is going at 4.2% a year, and everything else in gdp that is not housing is growing at about 2% a year.
2:19 pm
so housing is disproportionately bringing gdp growth up. that's something that we didn't see right away. normally would get you out of recession is a really steep rise in house and if look in the 1980s, for example, there was a rapid recovery as housing just grew. i can't remember but i think more than 10%. i could be wrong about that. you didn't see that this time because the recession was in part caused by huge bubble and wasn't a huge need to build houses in 2009 and 2010. as we worked off that excess, you've seen the growth rise, and i think there's still a lot of potential. we are building about 1.2 million houses a year now, it's more like 1.6 been consistent with our demography. but i think i will be one of the components of gdp that will drag the overall average up.
2:20 pm
>> yes, i'll hand her, national association of hispanic real estate professionals. going to figure chart on migration you stressed the importance of mobility. i wonder if you have that data available by race and ethnic and also the age of dissipation and perhaps regionally? >> that is a good question. few people have broken down these sorts of david and so the other mobility i referenced like reduced movement across occupations, across industries and a range of other ones have broken it down by a bright the demographic groups and intended to see similar trends. but i'm not sure this one was done by race and i haven't noticed that movement. [inaudible] >> right. it's a really interesting question. i'll look into it, thank you.
2:21 pm
[inaudible] >> just related to the same mobility data. one of the other hypotheses people have had for the lack of mobility has to deal with the rise of -- it in italy to disentangle the causation or at least which aspects are driving that? >> i was alluding to that when i said that these trends in mobility, i didn't not just these but the others that i've shown, our broad-based enough and you see them across a variety of demographic groups. so lost something like the rise of 200 couples may have contributed, can't explain the broad-based changes that we have been seeing. >> so i found this really interesting speech from an official in a democratic administration because of course there is the whole question about, well, this is all about quality of life and of land-use
2:22 pm
regulations are there because people, san francisco and boston are wonderful because they have the land use regulations. this is a little bit of an extension of jim's question. can you talk a little bit more about, i would talk about five acres on over to the kinds of regulation? >> i've lived in both san francisco and boston. i think they're completely wonderful, and i think that's the argument for everything i'm talking about that you, more people want to live there, that's terrific and we shouldn't be trying to get in the way of it. i guess i don't think it, i mean, i guess i don't, sure i agree about how surprising it is. i won't dispute the first point you made, but because we are very concerned about mobility, very concerned about opportunity, very concerned about affordable housing and,
2:23 pm
you know, this hits every one of those. to some degree, this is, you know, some of these are justified. some of these are choices communities can make. but when you're talking lot sizes or how tall you can build or things that just make it harder to setup and get permits and construct more, all of thee types of restrictions played a role in the phenomenon i'm talking about. >> i'm debbie goldberg with the national their housing allowance. i have two questions. and you tell us the name of the $300 million grant program you are talking about? i've been with the other things but not that one. the second is just living in the city where there's been a lot of multifamily construction so the
2:24 pm
supplies increased dramatically, but we've also seen that rents have gone up very dramatically at a note that it's even more extreme in some of the other cities you've been talking about, seems like a just supplied is not a debate mobility possible, particularly people who are not well established in their careers or along in their career paths or earning high incomes. i'm wondering if there is a rental side parallel to the point that jim was making? we all like jim's -- about rent controls in some form or other that ought to be a tool in the tool kit of municipalities that are trying to make sure people at different income levels can actually lived there. >> so those are great questions. the $300 million this proposal and the budget. it hasn't been enacted. if i told you the name of it right it would be enacted and still voucher because it has a great name benefit of going to mix it up. so i will get back to you. in terms of affordability come
2:25 pm
absolutely. this is one complaint focusing on one issue today. this is not the whole housing agenda, not the only thing you want to do on affordability. i talked about the supply-side. but demands that is an important part of the store to expand access to credit for homeowners is an important part of that. expanding affordable rentals is another part of the. so there's a broader set of housing agenda in terms of, i guess i don't want to wade into a bigger debate that you raised a the end of there. >> okay, great. well, thanks. thanks so much. have a terrific day. [applause] >> is that working? terrific. well, thank you, everybody for staying with us after lunch and we intend to make this lively so
2:26 pm
there's no one all the blood rushes to your tongues will nevertheless keep your minds over. thank you for being here and we have a really extraordinary panel. title and name rec insert a number of has already been described by faith, but i think it's important for us to note that we have a group of leaders here who represent both a great deal of knowledge about the workings of a set of firms who are central to the systems and the outcomes we can talk all day today, but also from the own rules in government and in public policy have really deep insight on how we make change and how the intersection between that policy sector and housing e housing issues that we've been talking about to come about. governor pawlenty as i'm sure many of you know was a very successful two-term governor of minnesota and since 2012 he's been leaving financial services
2:27 pm
roundtable which is an organization that represents a whole range of different kinds of companies in the financial services sector include entrance companies, banking, asset management, finance and credit card lending from. secretary dalton has been president of the housing policy council which is a division of the announcers of his roundtable and i think many of us know him from his tenure as secretary of the navy during the clinton administration but the sector was president of fannie mae and also had a federal housing finance board in the 1970s. dave stevens, is anybody in this room who -- he is everywhere. david stevens, president of the mortgage bankers association of america. his private private sector sorry, were complicit tours of duty at wells fargo, freddie mac, world savings, and he served as the fha commissioner which in my time in the office
2:28 pm
is a challenging task and he served in probably the most challenging times to have a hold that office that our country has faced. so we will have an extraordinary group. advancing our goal here is to try to lift up a little bit from the conversation that we were just having and put that into a larger policymaking context. so, governor, i'm going to start with you if i might. it's been seven years since the worst moment of the crash. and if you put yourself back to what you saw, what about today's environment is something that you would never have expected back then? what surprises you most about where we are today? >> well, thank you, trembling, for inviting us. it's delightful to be with you. thank you to faith and to others who are sponsoring this and to allow us to come and share a few thoughts. i'm really surprised about a number of things seven years
2:29 pm
removed from the crisis, one of which is we have two of the actors that were part of an arguably substantially contributed to the crisis, namely fannie and freddie, still in conservatorship with a congress that seems to be unwilling or unable to tackle the reforms necessary to put fannie and freddie in a better place. so what is obviously unsustainable. is unacceptable. it is in my view, ridiculous that we're seven years removed from the crisis and congress hasn't tackled this issue. be on that, a change in the wake of the crisis was so large. this is one of the worst economic crisis in history of the country, almost brought the economy and the country to its knees. of course, there was going to be a transformational muscular response and it should have been in congress enacted a big piece of legislation called not frantically thinking that was big and complicated doing lots of things fmu should note that it would be fully implement.
2:30 pm
so i want to close by saying is that its price be the slow pace of implementation of aspects of dodd-frank. >> i want to get us to come back to work and effort are today but i wanted to first ask the others, what surprises you the most? >> i think if we were to collapse what's occurred, i don't know how many of you remember that period of time back really the end of 2007, 2008 we're watching institution after institution simply collapse. and in 40 put in conservatorship. the home prices dropped 30% from peak. hundred thousand jobs in 6000 jobs a month we lost when president obama began his first term. and so much damage come and look what's come out of the. there's a lot of frustration and on various issues and how certain things have been implemented. ..
2:31 pm
most surprising outcome, we think back a few years ago. >> when we were at that moment after 2007, two assumptions were widely shared. the first was lending had gone
2:32 pm
completely out of control, from all sides of the political spectrum, and what to do, and fannie and freddie had speed, and broken apart, there was the consensus fannie and freddie had to change and when you look at today people are arguing, and -- is not so bad. did we earn the right lessons from those moments, were those expansions wrong? >> i thank the urban institute, having this and all you do, issues that are important to us and what you do generally, i also want to salute faith
2:33 pm
schwartz. she worked with us as though leader of help now and the help now lines assist in seven million people to avoid foreclosure and 80% of those are in their homes and doing well and i want to thank you for the six years, you went with that. with respect to the surprise question, and how deep the cavernous cavern though we were in, and hank paulson, secretary paulson came to one of our conferences, white as a sheet, came from meetings with chairman ben bernanke and others, we were
2:34 pm
near real, real depth, crisis, recession, depression, and what surprises me is resilience of the economy and the we have come back as strong as we have. in terms of our industry, i think the fact that we are coming back and parts of the country that are lagging i was pleased to see recently housing prices in san francisco were higher than they were, 7 miles east to las vegas that there is still 40% below their peak, there has clearly been -- getting the loans are made, the
2:35 pm
market is working and there is some imbalance but i am optimistic. >> you are looking like you're anxious to jump in. >> lessons we learned at the beginning and where those lessons right about tight credit? >> i remember i was a brand new federal housing commissioner in the job a few months, went to nba secondary conference in early 2010, and said on the stage the fact the government guarantees 95% which it was at the time, was created in this country as a sign of a 6 system, that was a phrase i use, got lecture word afterwards by my public affairs guys, but climbed on to it. i will reiterate the point. the good news is they have been there to quite frankly provide
2:36 pm
continuous flow of capital to the housing markets, without those programs the housing market will be nowhere. dead on arrival and beano the only private mortgages being created in this country are going to a very affluent said of americans other than the isolated programs some of which were talked about on stage earlier today. we have support structures in place but it is not the markets, ultimately the housing system has to have the support. it can't be dependent on government guarantees, that makes no sense over the long run. >> i want to spend one more minute looking backward in the discussion. what have we done right so far? to your point the housing market
2:37 pm
we talked about this morning, a lot of people don't have access, and stability and security, enormous variability of prices in markets, a lot of things. what did we do right that got us here? >> one thing we did right, responsible underwriting, agree or disagree, but the fact of the matter is we can all agree what is done pre crisis is an abomination. it was outrageous, nearly wrecked the economy. and moving towards responsible underwriting with accountability for it directionally. it was a big improvement. that is one thing we got right among others. >> the other thing is those risky loans that got us in the
2:38 pm
crisis, a huge majority of them if not all of them have been eliminated. they are no more. regulators are requiring responsible lending. fact the mistakes we made, hard to see how we can make the same mistakes again. >> i take the whole spectrum of the consumer experience from point at a to end of termination of the loan. no matter how challenging it was, what they get today i easy to understand, what feedback from lenders without getting outside the operational challenge because consumers are coming in, compensation is controlled. there can't be people gaining the market based on more verse is less and the consumer, that is a good thing.
2:39 pm
underwriting standards, they have to amortize, and repay, that is extremely noble and a great way to have a market that protect consumers and allows capital flow and how consumers treat it, when they don't make payments, after enduring a crisis period, that are applicable to everyone involved. from finance, the safest sounding housing finance market in the history of the country, and advocates, industry that work together on these, regulators involved. at a high level. >> you can talk about what had gone -- what is undone. i want to get to them. to some extent some of the
2:40 pm
pieces from our happening, what do you think has not gone right, what needs to be the focus of attention now? >> the fact that credit availability, there is lack of credit availability, that is a concern. we have significant new regulations to deal with, lenders are feeling their way with respect to that, or tighter on loans. and those at the margin are being left out. and we need to address that. >> when we talk about what happened with the rules i get
2:41 pm
calls to tear apart dodd-frank, nothing could be further from the truth. and the framework of protection in place, we went from under regulated markets pre recession when we could argue clearly, it is underregulated and make everybody regulated and created confusion in policymaking. policies, one federal requirement on one agency does not comply with another regulator's obligation, to do all this process, the part we got wrong is not making clear authorities to determine outcomes with certain segments of operational process, how they get created in such a manner that ultimately we created an outcome we can clean out that in order to get credit expansion
2:42 pm
where and ultimately needs to be. >> do you think the challenges we have with credit expansion our challenges that are driven by the regulation, the relationships, the mechanisms of the system? the architecture that is producing producing the larger set of issues? >> the written rule itself to support america. what the bureau did, the housing system, they went beyond the role, beyond the 43 debt ratio in the appendix, if it meets the underwriting standards of freddie mac and fannie mae, it also is acceptable under the safe harbor rules. and save harbor provision. had that not been in place we would have tighter credit environment.
2:43 pm
. yes and no to all these things, they ultimately have the rules stand on itself which isn't depends on freddie mac and fannie ray's decisions but whether it is private capital or government guaranteed that the rule itself ensure is come--the broadest accessible opportunity for home ownership to the detriment of the consumer. i don't think we have gotten there. the financial system is easiest for the wealthier and the more assets you have and it gets tighter as we move down the curve because lenders and their inability to rationalize the confusion in the rulemaking, the outside boundaries of what they do. getting clarity, in a way that could help broaden that box to the same boundary, i think that is where the opportunity lies.
2:44 pm
we could go one after the other but we need to recognize changes now need to happen so that it can truly stand on its own and provide the broadest actions possible. fha and other things we talk about among ourselves often, there >> reporter: is that had been made to bring the clarity and policy back into the market. >> spend one more minute on this and go back up again. the other place, reaction to the idea one place we haven't done enough yet to understand the system, both the economic incentives built into the system as well as the guts of it. average price cost is making them unwilling to take risks because certain mortgages are likely to have higher service costs.
2:45 pm
is that a big area of unfinished business and are there others? >> there are clearly others and use it we want to talk about g s es and that is the big one. the fact that lenders are getting used to these, it applies to loan originators and servicers working through it. the system is working, but not working for everybody. those that the margin on not being served. >> whether to find ways to get as david said the outer limits of the credit box, managing risks thematically, most of these were reputable, we can't take anymore high-profile losses, can't take anymore,
2:46 pm
legal and operational risks, and if they think the box is here, and a margin of error. there are things to contribute to that, if there is newness, ambiguity, and by pulling in. we might stumble into a problem, will you take on the expert that is not worth it. >> and the prospects of a near-term legislation, relatively slim. there's a lot of regulatory action. nothing that is going on around pieces of the system. the pollinization platform and other things. that start to develop more crisply what people meant when they are talking about various
2:47 pm
differences. and towards a day when it is possible to reach a consensus on t s e reform? >> senators corcoran, warner, deserve a little credit for granite. they cover a lot of issues that are going to have to be resolved they deserve like credit for moving the ball down the field. and what you referred to, those are definitely very important and meaningful to setting the stage for legislation. the risk sharing, front and back
2:48 pm
end, and the platform, the security, it deserves a lot of credit, with warrants. clearly, what their limits are and as a result, all of those issues, all of those issues need to move forward and they are addressed. >> clarity around issues like the goals and duty deserve, are important to move forward. >> the left and right concern, the left being concerned about that, we have to have a backstop in order to have the 30 year
2:49 pm
fixed rate mortgage. and the 50s on that issue. and we as an industry want to provide for them. legislation is required to do that, the things that f h f a can do, put us on the path to that legislation. >> and a lot of times talking about each other. and what the court dynamics, the system's got to be accessible by everybody. large institutions, banks, non-bank, can start creating disadvantaged, to get fixed to make sure it is a clear separation enrolled in the
2:50 pm
originator's office. and they get their, and as we all know, one of the big land mines which is important to the role the g s e played, to call it goals, whenever the topic you want to bucket it into, we need to have a system that if there is a federal guarantee it has to have an obligation to support communities that might not get capital from the private sector particularly in bad markets. good markets easy to get capital, bad markets harder so you need a continuous flow of capital or you won't bring together all the stakeholders involved. i believe there are ways to get them and got to begin talking about how you get there and working on it but to john's point, they deserve a lot of accolades, putting a lot of the debate in place. things working on now, common
2:51 pm
security, risk share, those ideas started in corcoran warner. and became items we can now pursue and regulatory front. also for many of us involved in this for a number of years our own views how we get there i diaz -- ideas are evolving on this and don't get any disruption in the flow of the mortgage-backed securities market the we depend on, are there steps that can happen in the short run to make the legislative lift smaller, perhaps more the find so we can protect the common elements that we need to maintain that exist today for the long run. it is an interesting work product, a challenge in a few years past. >> we had a conversation to people and the room that is comfortable and easy but outside this building where there is that national debate going on. choosing our leadership for the
2:52 pm
next four year period. not only do we not get the debate, and a common security platform. >> the rates are going down. we see a general lack of interest in the housing policy fatigued at around the mortgage market, home ownership, access to credit issues, the space -- are any of the housing and consumer credit issues we have been talking about, and in the presidential debate. >> only moderately or almost invisibly so. if you think about it in macro political terms and ask the american people what concerns you most, the two things that
2:53 pm
rise above everything else by far the economy and security, some people say put money in my pocket, keep us safe. give me a good job, keep us safe. everything else trails in a different year or two three tears below that and you add to that the complexity, john and david talk seriously, put an ice pick in your head if you are listening to this. are what you call everyday folks. two things speak out against that complex and there is a constituency for disliking fannie and freddie and disliking the gst, there is political juice at some niche level for that and what to do about it. there's also a political constituency around the issues of equal access and affordable housing issues, those are not the same as terrorism, economy, jobs and the like but in certain
2:54 pm
forms in certain settings trying to get the support of 3% over here or over in there, there's opportunity for discussion and people don't sit around saying -- miller lite, playing the be raffle. they have a great paper and -- corker warner white paper. there is a table pounding, crazy that you got something called fannie and freddie, government-backed, 95% and people who were disadvantaged, access to decent saved affordable housing. that is as detailed as it gets. >> people do know rents going up in the city, they know it is harder to get a mortgage or
2:55 pm
don't have the income or ability to support a down payment, kids are living in their basements rather isn't being on their own in the market. but i don't see those issues in housing terms being in the debate. do you think there will be other issues that are proxy for economic and security? >> as tim said, some of the candidates running on both sides of the party for president, not all of them have a chance. i am not making labels. as they tell you, what goes on around the country, what ever the town hall meetings, no one says what the about fannie mae and freddie mac and what those institutions. to your point, you are not doing a good enough job bringing housing is the forefront of their issues, i serve on the to
2:56 pm
weather a foundation bipartisan and the past is to get the candidates thinking about the issue and the meetings, in new hampshire recently and the estates, and to get the candidates to talk about the subject, the data being presented is alarming, especially the rental markets on how many americans are living in poverty and can't afford their rent. we need to make it an issue and part of that is an opportunity with the selection but until there is an outcry they won't focus on it and that is where we stand right now. >> the energy, the energy of round fannie and freddie, i think it is emblematic of a larger attitude about institutions, particularly institutions in the financial system that still is a legacy.
2:57 pm
personal experience of the financial crisis. there is a deep-seated belief at this point at what the financial system does, rather than facilitating the real economy or consumer lives, somehow or other in tension with the needs and interests of the average american. and i think you see candidate on the right and left and politicians on the right and left appealing to that. do industries and institutions you represent here have a role to play in trying to demonstrate where the narrative is and isn't fair? >> obviously we do. my organization represents almost every lender profile that exists in this country and we have a lot of conversation how to change the narrative.
2:58 pm
i tell you everytime i see a new headline, financial institutions related to the mortgage business, not possible of course. it becomes pretty difficult to change that narrative. i have been doing out reach to regulators, folks at the white house, start talking how safe and sound housing finance system, everyone in this room, we should be really recognizing the fact that despite disagreements along the way we have created the consumer protection this country has ever seen, it is safe to go get a mortgage, disclosure protections for american home ownership has never been better. i don't see that message coming out. we can talk about it, loan officers at the street level and real-estate agents do that in their communities, we need more of that from academics, policymakers, despite the internal discussions we are having, ala of battles along the way, gray coats and blue coats, can't forget the uniforms they
2:59 pm
are wearing, but at the end of the day we really do need to change that narrative. is important to create confidence in the system, create confidence in a market to get a participants involved, and trust was a deficit that is huge, that was created as a result of bad practices, the industry, regulatory oversight, investors with insatiable appetites, and made those decisions, we all did collectively, we did so much of that now, it is critically important to turn the page, don't -- that doesn't mean don't forget the protections we need to keep in place and always keep a higher level of focus on that but turning the page on the narrative, we don't start doing that we will keep the cavern that exists at some level and the anti financial service sentiment is so extraordinary right now. >> maybe more practically instead of thinking about how to
3:00 pm
elevate housing to be a top tier presidential issue which may be unrealistic in the near-term, you might take the people in this room, solace from the reality in a policy matter, and the real-estate developers, the agents, the suppliers, builders, contractors, originators, underwriters, servicers, finance years, consultants to all those people, the advocates for affordable housing and advocates for different policy, far left of far right and add up what is the housing, all i don't think you could look at that and walked away from the discussion and said our problem is this group doesn't have enough influence in washington d.c.. ..
3:01 pm
dot talk to about the volatility in income that many families had added the volatility in their expenses but most of the financial products are designed for a world in which you assume everybody pays the same amount. is there something beyond narrative that we need to do to try to be more responsive to the economy and demonstrate value to consumers? >> of inherited is the easy one. we didn't even get to the
3:02 pm
servicing compensation how it's structured and accounting for it it's too complex and we need to get into the weeds and work on all of these areas and components. but i put them in a bucket called confidence to land that comes to the clarity and motivating institutions to be able to expand credit box in a way that doesn't put them in extraordinary risk and confidence to borrow and consumers having confidence in the system that works and then we need confidence in the systems that solve. what's going to be the financial structure of the finance system. >> we are going to ask all of you to join the conversation if you could raise your hand we will bring the microphone to you. anyone?
3:03 pm
in boston two or three buyers and i think everybody would acknowledge we are very close to the speed limit in terms of the home price increases there's a lot of talk already again. how is extending the credit box relevant to that environment obviously detroit is different in boston but if we look across the country in and most of the markets is the constraint in supply and really how is it going to impact the market by expanding and do we have a problem there and the lenders that have problems putting the mortgages available into the constraint.
3:04 pm
the demand is greater than the supply. that's a different challenge but if you go to detroit still parts of florida and nevada they still haven't fully recovered and there's a there's a lot more diversity in some of the communities and making sure that we are providing a broad credit box that is a sustainable bar over to be able to take advantage of that. but john pointed this out early on and the needs in each of the markets is very different. i thought the point earlier was very spot on and it's something that's a whole another set of dialogs about the building and there's interesting points about
3:05 pm
all of these incentives and the lack thereof that are impacting the issues in and the effects of community like you are focused on. >> the geographical variation in the problem definition is in the market so if you think about one, seven and eight and you are in the neighborhood, there is a robust economic activity going on and at the house prices are appreciating but gradually and more of the neighborhoods even those with savings don't have the same credit profiles and because of those standards access to credit is really tough so it is a much more granular market by market. >> take yourself out of washington, d.c. and look at the difference in what's happening in the home prices in prince george county versus montgomery. the demographics are different and likewise the path is very different so there is a lot of
3:06 pm
work to be done on the credit side i think. >> we have one over here to we just saw them take the draw but they have capital coverage pays a monthly at some point there's going to be a recession again. where are the things that could upend this glide path that we are on. >> there's any number of things from the dramatic to the more sublime but somebody put a dirty bomb in washington, d.c. tomorrow and everything we just talked about with change fundamentally. that is one end of the continuing. on the continuum. on the other end of the continuum, you have a seven-year recovery that has been fairly
3:07 pm
anemic by historical standards and while we are all hopeful for the continued positive direction in that regard, you could have a recession by historical standards we are seven years into a recovery and there is no guarantee that this doesn't turn down six months from now as an intermediate level of concern, then you can pick up some tactical levels that would be disruptive for example people like large banks saying it's not worth our time and trouble to be part of the program. it's too risky and it's to the tedious and costly. ten more of that if you look at the continuum of what could disrupt the gentleman to my left that would give you some samples along the roadway. >> to follow up on the governor's comments to the fact
3:08 pm
that we had a the conservatorship for seven and a half years with no plan in sight to fix that, there's not going to be legislation in this congress this year or next year, but we do have to fix that. i mean, it is something that we cannot continue to have these two major institutions in the conservatorship. i think i would like to see something that works well like the base realignment and the congressionally chartered maintained group that would look at the issue and bring it to congress and have them act on it but each senator and congress whether they have a base of the in the district wouldn't have any part of it.
3:09 pm
but when you put the whole to tel aviv is presented to the congress and to have the -- he had to require and or down vote, they did get something down. they showed with respect to having the financial reform. we have great risks ahead of us. every time i see a legislation or see folks in one segment of the industry that goes back to licensing for some companies. i think all of this is just fodder. there's over 30 pieces of legislation between the 114 and
3:10 pm
115 congress constant tinkering going on. when the interest rates start rising we have the sources of liquidity to provide financing capital to the remaining mortgage finance system. we have a whole bunch of dynamic new institutions in the marketplace today so we have a lot of work to do to make sure that this infrastructure doesn't fall particularly where the credit spreads changed so from that standpoint we have a lot of work to do. but right now we are in a more stable environment than i thought we would be a few years ago and that was a good fight of the double-edged sword. >> we have time for one more question on here do we have a microphone coming?
3:11 pm
>> this is for you, dave. they show you in agreement with how the secretary having struck the right balance using the insurance premiums. but for now to be cautious about reducing them further and the recently they've taken some action for the regulations. what could the administration or any other entity take between now and next year that would open up the credit? >> they just got over the capital reserve requirements. most of that increase came from the reversed program which has been extremely volatile year in and year out and you can see in
3:12 pm
the report by own sense of this is the only thing they can afford to do is put themselves in the position of being in political risk and if it would swing the other way based on the forecast next year and go back under 2%, you wouldn't want us to be on the heels of doing the reduction to sue. so i think there will be one but i would say keep the powder dry coming use it when we need to be stimulative and let's build more capital into the capital reserve. that's how i would behave if i were the commissioner. rates are extremely low and i don't think they are an inhibitor to the access of credit. but they have the obligation to do is create clarity and the mortgage certification. there's other work to be done as well. but today the use of the false claims and trouble damages is a new regime that never existed prior to 2011 and it puts everyone at a greater risk than ever before.
3:13 pm
the financial institutions championed the fact that they are exiting the program and it's almost a race away from that fha program that is so critically needed to support first-time homeownership. so i think the fha could do right now more than anything else is create greater clarity so that the lenders are held accountable for egregious material and also to make sure that for minor mistakes that will never meet the test of the false claims act under the department of justice legal action because if we don't make that change initially, nothing else really matters and we will continue to see them for away from the program and it is intolerable in any housing person here and homeownership side should be championing that sue is the biggest issue that they face.
3:14 pm
and the other financial institutions we pick up some of the things. given the difficulty of the mortgage process. the stupidity suboptimal due to -- it was to put it suboptimal. they are offering very complex problems with a lot of what he would call underwriting behind it but very soon getting to the point of being able to say to a person simply hears our proposition by now with one click. people are moving to a much simpler interface and now there's a problematic side to that which is the way they know so much about you they don't
3:15 pm
need to fill out forms and do all this stuff through big data analytics and there's a lot of legal and ethical issues around that by setting that aside for the purposes of the discussion the idea that we put an individual or family through what amounts to be a long and difficult march to getting mortgage i just can't see it as a sustainable experience. >> including the potential of getting people in prequalified or at least mostly qualified states maybe even in some sort of a legal safe harbor state. the next process i am a legal persistent and i can barely
3:16 pm
stand it. >> maybe that is the perfect place for us to close because enough, it is both some potential dangerous pitfalls but also reason for optimism on the future that the consumer can really understand in the engagement. with that would you please join me in thanking the panel. [applause] spec today we heard a lot about the consumer which is nice for the financial services to start talking about and the first panel was excellent, talking about both the strengths and challenges for the consumer post crisis along with a changing
3:17 pm
demographic. we continue to move on options for how we can get financing and today is a little bit about the backend of the back end of the process, the financing, the dominance of the government we are fortunate to have two government officials here today that represent a huge portion of the mortgage origination and from those the gse. and then i wanted to make sure we saw the consumer and the community impact that we could talk about so julia gordon is going to represent that kind of perspective on a lot of what was heard today. equally important, we heard a little bit today to get to the base consumers litigation inherent in the system and what
3:18 pm
is the current state and the path forward as we move forward so i asked each of them to give five to seven minutes a little bit of an update on the current state big picture and then i will have a few questions that i want to open up to this group can and i think there will be a lot of great questions. so we are going to start with bob first, the acting deputy director for the division of the conservatorship handles of the special advisor to the director. bob is well known to many as a trusted official official in the government certainly with the office of the acting commissioner, but i know bob well from his days at freddie mac and from the industry as well as wells fargo so thank you for joining us and i'm going to start with you. >> i thought i would spend a couple of minutes this afternoon
3:19 pm
talking about some of the key areas that we are focused on just to put it in the context of how we've been talking about i will focus most of my remarks on freddie and fannie and people call it the enterprise and do so in the context of how we communicate with his objectives and goals which is the conservatorship for the parts so in that framing, we will talk a little bit about what those big items are and try to wrap up and carry over certainly into many of these people carry over into 2016 as well. so, one is for maintaining the maintaining part and that is about what the f. essay and what they are doing to maintain and pay their obligations according
3:20 pm
to the statutes and mandates. and it's making sure there is broad access into liquidity in the mortgage markets and finance markets and to do so in a safe and sound manner. for those of you that are in the vast majority of the activities. one thing we will continue to go forward on as you did it for many of the speakers before expressed comments on the challenges in that area so we've got fair amount with the enterprise and they've done tremendous work in developing that and part of what we have been addressing there is again the enterprise credit fox under the terms that they will purchase the mortgage associated at a very healthy spot that
3:21 pm
affects many of the changes in the lessons learned and the crisis and it is more than adequate room to address the needs in the financing needs in the marketplace. what we have been working on are the issues what are some of the constraints in the lending communities to be able to exercise and use the totality of the credit fox added the big developments there have been around the frameworks of the representations of the warrantees or try to quantify and minimize the risk to the lenders in some unforeseen cost and we think that has contributed to the market and the willingness to go there. it's not the only issue and challenge but we think that it's one within the interface control and so over the course of the last two years there's been
3:22 pm
tremendous work and we are wrapping up most of that. we have made tremendous progress to make sure folks understand if you have a defective load come if there is a lender that have remedies other than to be purchase articulating what those are and what the conditions around them are providing greater certainty around that so many of them will get resolved and that's an important piece. another work that's been piloted but not complete which is an independent dispute resolution process and we see that as one of the final steps in this process if all the back-and-forth between the enterprises where they make the terms and conditions of the contracts are resolved or not this is one independent view to work through that so there's
3:23 pm
still more work to be done against quantify in defects on the servicing side of this trying to clarify that and provide more certainty to the lenders when they are in violation of this terms of these terms and what the consequences would be so again another similar view of what is a defect in the remedy and again one of the big pieces of this is articulating that and locking it down up front so that it's not open ended and you don't understand the exposure down the road and i think that is helping and we are starting to see that. there is some movement in the mix of loans coming through that process. areas that have come out of this also fannie may in particular has rolled out a home ready product or is about ready to announce moving to the implementation on that. another great development in
3:24 pm
their work and research they've done in that area both of the enterprises are again spending a lot of time and energies of good activities there. the other thing we've done in this space hopefully wrapping appear shortly is the duty to serve which will address many of those and that will be a proposal of that role so that is forthcoming in the near term. in this area there also have been lots of focus on the loss mitigation activities and keeping our words in their homes help you deal with age and help stabilize the neighborhoods and the nonperforming loan sales as a big component of that and we think we have worked hard to address some of the issues and challenges to work with folks
3:25 pm
and the enterprises are making sure that we are getting those close to the vest buyers that can keep people at home to give another chance when a new service term so that is another big piece. quickly come, the reduced part of it is a chart of -- dramatic change at the tampa crisis or just after the crisis. while the footprint if you think about the footprint in the marketplace and if you think about that in terms of market share of loans purchased or financed is still large the risk position is dramatically smaller and it continues to risk. if you go down, chuck it's under half the size they were before.
3:26 pm
they are down significantly. the risk profile and the risk footprint is down dramatically. it's very different in the finance roles in addition that is happening happening happening both in the single-family arena and in a multi-family arena. both of the enterprises are transferring large amounts out to the private capital. so big movement there. very different way of looking at it. finally, the last piece to touch on is the bill part and this is an area.
3:27 pm
areas where policymakers can learn and understand and help inform some of the potential decisions a potential policy and actions that can inform the future housing finance reform building on the securitization side to say how can others utilize this down the road. focus has been on the enterprise and that's deliberate when we came and we wanted to scope that found and make sure that we had something with a chance of succeeding in making sure that it could get up and running so that was to actually scope that down and focus on the business that the enterprise would do overtime and then also do it specifically for their business so that was another big component and that was to the movement of the single security
3:28 pm
and that is to help improve the liquidity in the overall marketplace and reduce some of the costs to taxpayers associated. >> thank you. the next speaker is richard green a senior advertising advisor for policy research. before joining the committee was the director of southern california center for real estate. we are welcoming you back and we are delighted you are here. so, welcome and please proceed to. >> i want to spend a little bit of time talking about the access to credit issue and this is the question on are we where we need to be and the answer is no. i'm going to get a couple of
3:29 pm
facts. first was a report that couple of days ago on lending to minorities and there are issues with these advocacy reports because they don't have a lot of controls but here's the thing you are than 3% of the mortgages are going. that means one quarter of the population is going to fewer than one quarter of that percentage. that strikes me as a problem i don't think there's any set of there is any set of controls who could put in place that could explain that. second thing as bob said correctly, the risk being presented it to the economy by fannie and freddie has gotten considerably lower and that's largely a good thing that what
3:30 pm
we might ask is whether that hasn't gotten a little too low and if you look at the default rate for the loans that originated in 2009 and thereafter cut they are extraordinarily low by historical standards and so the question is what is the right default rate and that is a question we have to ask ourselves seriously when we are thinking about access to credit issue is we don't want to go back to the way things were and the people in houses where we have to kick them out in a few years but if the metaphor is ever used i think it applies to the extraordinarily low default rate. we are doing and basis points of default and reflect the credit box is too tight. there's something going on is a problem. but the third fact i'm going to present is more complicated because it involves regression and this is what people like i do for entertainment.
3:31 pm
when we worry about something. i'm going to tell you about the following regression you take 1980 explaining home ownership and use the census data so you have observations. when you are doing this and you look at home ownership how old people are and whether they are married or not and how well educated they are and what their income is and what city they are living in, their recent estimates of the. take that regression and get a model and then use that model and guess what happens ten years later. let's run it forward and see where we are. now there's a lot of stuff that's causing the decline. marriage is a big one.
3:32 pm
married couples are less likely than renters are with you put but you put in the race and ethnicity and on the other hand education attainment has gone up and that is going to push it up and people are getting over. we do all these things together and get that forecast and where we are it is three percentage points lower than the model predicts so then you ask why is that. we take one step further back and let's look at the differences in the racial outcomes for housing for ownership after controlling for income etc. and what you find is after the controls are in place, 25 years ago they were percentage points likely than non-hispanic whites. go forward 25 years what i will
3:33 pm
call the unexplained gap has gotten bigger over the period of time. if you look at what he knows, it is a smaller difference. the change is smaller but you get a similar kind of trajectory why has this happened? okay. and i step back and i think it is an access to credit issue because then what don't we have? we don't have the balls and we don't have credit scores. so as much as we'd like to think that it's a product of our own good hard work and to a very large extent it is it also has a lot to do with who our parents are and i'm grateful for the following fact pretty much every day my parents pay paid for my college education because they had the need to do it. it is easier for me to establish
3:34 pm
a good credit history and put a down payment to buy a house. so that intergenerational transfer of wealth is a big deal trying to think if again, if you are in a stronger position to begin with it is much easier to get to a 700 scores and if you are in the lead coleco position to begin with. being poor is expensive. everything you have to pay for costs you more money, lots of things you have to pay for costs more money and if you don't have a lot of more money that makes getting up to that stronger score more difficult. so those are two key components in the credit dropped, the down payment. so here's the question how do we make the credit open up and still be responsible in light of these phenomena? i want to suggest suggest there's a number of things i'm going to talk about.
3:35 pm
one is with statistics dominate. what do i mean by that? when we have models we have scorecards. these are model-based scorecards to drink borrowers by credit history and they do a pretty good job of that rank their likelihood they do a pretty good job of it. if you put an overlay on it, 43% overlay that's for people that are deemed creditworthy that are no longer able to get access to credit. what does that do? it disproportionately harms ethnic and racial minorities. they are more likely to be kicked out by that and the second thing it does is actually could worsen the characteristics how could that be? if you have a high-scoring person who misses a characteristic they are less
3:36 pm
likely to default any low-scoring person. so i think that it relates to an awful lot of damage both from the standpoint of access to credit and the standpoint of managing credit risk while. the second thing is the whole point of automated underwriting to free up time that would allow people to do manual underwriting so there was an excellent conversation this morning about people who have unstable income and by unstable it don't mean they are unstable and needs seasonable unemployment. that's where judgment for the manual underwriting can make a big difference to a lot of people. you look at who made a good income for three or four years and it comes in fits and starts in the period of time you are going to make a different decision about them as an underwriter can somebody that
3:37 pm
essentially doesn't. so we have to think about using what the model allows us to do and take advantage of the automation to look more seriously at the loans that might not fit inside. hispanic thank you. that is along the theme we talked about today. julia gordon is here. she was with another company and now is with the national neighborhood stabilization. we know that your issues are a long the lines of what we are you're speaking to so we are delighted you are here. >> thanks for having me and i'm delighted you kept me on the panel. i no longer have a job that we
3:38 pm
have an relevance to the panel that i am going to take the opportunity to move us because richard said much of what there was to say and then i could also sit on the access to credit issue i want to talk little bit something that has come upon a variety of places today that we haven't really delved into which is beyond even this up housing recovery. i do want to refer people to a recent report that came out of the center for american progress that was in progress when i left that's but a report everybody should look at calls in the uneven housing recovery. >> it looks as negative equity in it where it is and where it's going away and where it's staying the same or getting worse and why that is and what we should do about it. i think it's really important to
3:39 pm
focus a little bit now on some of the areas that are not seeing a big recovery. we know it's not just about real estate we know it's about job growth and household formation and incomes generally. it's about disinvestment and about a move away from non- metropolitan areas and cities and so all of these things are at play. we can talk about all of them today. for those that are here for the earlier panel when bill showed you the maps in mississippi, you can view maps of the whole country just like that where you see all the factors that lineup and in order to work effectively in the east neighborhoods it is absolutely imperative to work on all these fronts and so, you know, i am a fan of working across the silos to bring concentrated efforts that can address the whole pan of the
3:40 pm
other issues. so i'm going to talk about housing and a little bit about how what is going on in a couple of programs and policies that relate to some of the really distressed housing stock as well as the legacy mortgages that are still hanging around and what we know is that they can't vacant homes put on the homes around then and for more vacant, the bigger the impact and it is absolutely imperative to transform the vacant homes that have fallen to get them back into productive use if they need to be demolished to demolish
3:41 pm
them. but what we are seeing as there's is there's still a very, very large stock of housing where this isn't happening and we don't see any prospect for it happening because it's difficult and it can be expensive and we did have an opportunity for a while when they ran a neighborhood the neighborhood stabilization program. a lot of money went out the door to the nonprofits to work on stabilizing neighborhoods. but the way the program was set up encouraged a lot of money to be spent sort of quickly, not to leverage other money but more to be spent and then the program went away as many subsidy programs do and it's less to address the problem and it's not so much about access to credit per se although for the new owner occupants that come into
3:42 pm
these homes they need access to credit and they can't find it right now and i think that is a new problem that, while it's an old problem but in this context this is something that needs to be part of the access to credit conversation because we need to work with partners in the communities to get these back into circulation and back into use ideally with owner occupants but with renters and potentially other uses. i would put that up there on the priority list along with something else which is that we now see fannie mae and freddie mac and fha offloading a number
3:43 pm
of their delay and went mortgages for these bold sales of nodes. so far among all three of the participants a little over 100,000 have been sold. is that a giant number? no. is it significant, yes and in many you did many of the communities where these are concentrated in something that is something that is concerning to me before i can do my job more concerning than the organization i work for actually owns the notes and i'm driven by really scary looking houses not just the kind of academic let's look at the house but now like that's mine. we have to do something about it i'm very concerned the buyer of the notes which have been
3:44 pm
sources of private capital, private equity funds and the like are buying large chunks of loans because they can make money on the certain percentage. for example some of the big servicers out of their, bank of america i think falls into this category will not anymore just walk away from a load. they won't just released the lean release the lean and walk away but interestingly, when they sell the loans to buyers can still do that there is no prohibition against them doing that and as i work more and more with some of these assets and think through this as the plaintiff view of an and owner of some of the worst of the worst i realized that we could have a whole second wave of
3:45 pm
crisis in some of these communities if there is significant walking away from some of the properties without doing the very intensive assets work asset work but you need to do to rehab it were to get it through for closure to clean up the title and two if you have to demolish it but all that takes time, effort and money. when we get notes we get them also with a donation of some funds to do that because we know you can't just give the stuff away and then expect somebody to do it. the land bank isn't going to have a source of money to do the demolition they need to get money so these are things that have been on my mind lately in terms of what's going to happen in these particularly hard hit areas. a related issue is the trend
3:46 pm
towards a single-family rental. single-family rental has always been a good part of the market. i grew up in a single-family rental so i knew about it. but what we have seen over the past several years is larger players getting into it either in gauging in large-scale rental programs or providing financing for midsized investors to get into it. for the policymakers to spend some time thinking about how we can make sure that this is an area where in particular we think about affordability and think about how this new landscape is going to work and the operators that are not regulated by the normal housing and banking regulators how
3:47 pm
that's going to work in communities where a lot of homes have now been transferred from the owner occupancy to rental. so i am going to stop there and move on. we can take questions. >> people get some questions for sure. larry, i don't think he knows everyone in this room but they all know him. he's a leader of the financial services and serves on the firm's advisory management committee. and if you look through his biography has a lot of free words at the top. so thanks for joining us to help us kind of come full circle on what's happening in the market and liquidity. >> thank you for inviting me. i am so pleased to be here. i've wanted to play the lawyer and the three needle elements that i think are having an impact on the availability of credit. many of you have heard me go on about these before so i apologize they are not really
3:48 pm
innovative and yet they continue to be problems for many of my clients. but i want to talk about his first the legal acquirements themselves that they are either overly prescriptive or overly ambiguous which is somewhat interesting. or they are subjected for inconsistent with other requirements. and i will go into that in a little detail. second are the remedies for the compliance violation. simply put, the fact that there is a disproportionate to harm borrowers even after due account for trying to bake in the disincentives to ensure future goods activities and last and most importantly is the willingness to use the remedies available to them so let me talk first about some of the legal requirements. let's talk about ambiguous ones
3:49 pm
first. over the unfair and deceptive abusive action practices it's one of those i know it when i see it. 70% of the enforcement actions to date are predicated in part or in whole on and a budget unfair deceptive active practice the use are ones the lender couldn't have known in advance that were deemed to be illegal. what does that mean practically in how the lender determines the policies and procedures and programs and services it is very ambiguous because it tends to be and after the fact and analysis of the practice had an adverse impact on minorities. so those are ambiguous. how about overly prescriptive? has anyone read the services?
3:50 pm
then anybody that has tried to implement knows how deep you oriented they the oriented they are and put aside the cost element. i'm just talking about the legal element. csp is the new nsa. the overly prescriptive we talked a lot before about the lack of clarity and here there's too much clarity and too much detail but then we have subjected us to fha and you don't want the object criteria about it inextricably tied with the remedies if somebody after the fact determines in their
3:51 pm
judgment that the judgments made by the lender was not appropriate. how about inconsistent? this is the area that is most consistent right now. try to square the loss mitigation requirements of all the agencies with the interest by the fha and the fees by the gse so don't you dare for close on the borrower. how dare you not for close quick or. there are no inconsistencies in the service and regulations. and so the lenders are costs where they have to decide which one they want. they don't want to violate either. most agencies know the inconsistencies and nobody will do anything about it. how about ability to be paid. don't use the flexible underwriting criteria. how about csp be supervisory
3:52 pm
reviews versus enforcement. we think they are doing a pretty good job. by the way, here is a investigator that just came from an enforcement. enforcement. one thing i should say they've gone through the demand from the csp be. they are now the new normal and when they are flipping out and get this long subpoena documents they have to provide or witnesses they have to produce and say it's the new normal. then how about enforcement versus the law so when we look at what happened now i can't say with certainty that i do belief that the director's position on marketing agreements and captive reinsurance arrangements is wholly inconsistent with the years of judicial decisions and i don't know whether it will get overturned but there is that there is a good chance of it and at that is unrealistic but let's take the certifications people
3:53 pm
talked a lot about those things and nobody, no large lender can say that it is complied in all respects. they can't. why do we even need a certification? because irrespective of whether there's a certification if somebody does something wrong there is a remedy available to comply so what does the certification become but a gotcha department david could department can use they haven't just taken the money if you look at the chart you will see some of the false claims settlements over the last year. you will see most all of them are backs so the legal requirement to start with aren't really awkward or difficult. second are the remedies available for the government. so if you look at the false claims act for every mile in its three times the amount of insurance paid minus the
3:54 pm
liquidation proceeds but the liquidation proceeds. as bad as that is, than what they, then what they do is extrapolate. while we found 65 with this problem and that we are going to extrapolate over the entire portfolio because we don't have the people to look at the file and this goes back for ten years so we are going out to play it by ten. so $17 billion if you dollars and if you assigned today we'll take 3 million. that's how does unfold and often times without regards to the facts. if you look at the remedies available to them they can charge civil penalties on a per loan basis $5,000 if you just do something wrong, $25,000 if
3:55 pm
anyone knew about it and a million dollars if you were reckless enough knowledge. per loan if you say i love servicing and we found that you did this and it's been going on for quite some time we are extrapolating across the portfolio, we are only using 5,000 instead of 25 million qos 7 billion we will take 900 million but you have to sign today. restitution is another remedy giving money back to the borrowers that are harmed. another problem is that her own admission it doesn't really matter so we are going to make the bosses which we can't identify or prove that if you can't prove to us they didn't suffer then you have to pay into those are just two of the remedies. restitution and to penalties they have a lot more. they made great progress but the
3:56 pm
rest of the warrantees are made with the light and often times those became risk allocation devices and then the willingness of the government and bible and with just these slides. again look at those numbers, e.g. 5 million, 225 million. and then here is the significance this is hard to read that you will see the opportunity and opportunity enforcer because a lot of these are against credit card companies and mortgages and if you look at that closed the evil seed the penalty and the restitution and a 60 million from 80 million, 109 million, these are real dollars and maybe they deserve this. i say in many cases they didn't.
3:57 pm
we are almost out of time so i'm going to ask one question of the panel and open up to all of you. we heard about the crisis, post crisis arising out of the ashes to kind of have a firm market where we are stable today. and i might add we are faithful to the government -- thankful for having the government after the crisis because of the gse and the markets to work with to sell to their guidelines. larry is making a point that the risk and certainty and why they are represent. so my question is the government is still dominant 70% or more of the originations decreases investor balance sheets take up the rest.
3:58 pm
who is going to broaden access to the ever present demand of demographic changes and new changes going on in the mortgage market, private capital can't competes with capital and never will. so, can any thoughts that i think we should open up the? >> the ppa packages not a natural product and i think it's hard to have that product in a market without some sort of the government support behind it. i think it might have very well worked out the basic problem is you see it. investors who are willing to
3:59 pm
take on the interest risks or they are willing to take on the credit risks and getting the investor to take on both is really tough. and there's actually some very good analytical reasons for that. so, if we want to suddenly go to an adjustable-rate market within the banks can do a perfectly good job financing mortgages. it works well on their balance sheets. they are not well-suited to have long-term fixed-rate mortgages on the balance sheets. otherwise, if we believe that the fixed-rate long-term pre- paid mortgage is a good thing i think that it's nearly impossible. >> is the question going to innovate us to the future that is the question. >> or private capital plaques. >> we could come up with a lot of innovation and there is. i had one client on the student loan side and they determined whether the student loan is based on the college they went
4:00 pm
to and that's all they use at all algorithms. my last ten major son wouldn't be able to get a loan. the problem is whether you get penalized for failure. it's one thing if you fail and lose your investment and another thing if you get penalized for taking a risk and risk. the government is to put up the rules of the road, safeguards and indicates they were talking about to provide the fact so we can have a product people have a delight and yes we have been to have conversations about other products but for right now that is a product that has been relatively safe compared to some of the others the innovators came up with.
4:01 pm
.. i think we need some time to get past that. i think the are a number of fronts on which consumer advocates have joined together with industry participants to go to government agencies to say, you know, that you are doing this thing that maybe unnecessarily impeding access to credit and we do need to have
4:02 pm
lots of what led we talked about verification is important. there's more of that we can have, lighting things up with each other. you can get a certain amount of that but when we set up these what i think are really straw man of ability to pay versus cra lending, those two things are not, in fact, an opposition to each other. there's lots of safe lifting to be done in areas that are currently underserved by lenders. and we need some innovation on how that happens and not have someone say actually cra lending equates to riskier lending when it doesn't. that's something else to think about. >> i'm not sure there's a lot of innovation that needs to take place on the credit box. i'm going to, richard come back to your point, i don't think it's a matter of the credit box
4:03 pm
and expanding to credit doctor i think the credit box, even look at a relative the fha and the to gses, 97% ltd, where you want to go? fico scores still down to 580 in the fha space. debt-to-income ratio's that go in the 50 area. they've got the extension of the 43 but there's a lot of room. those are the big challenges. julie hit on this a bit. the risk aversion is very real and for me reasons that larry talked about a just coming out of the crisis and the monetary values of what had been hit. we just, there's a little bit of let's get real, they are not just going to jump out and do this. it's lenders, risk-averse and that is one piece. that's a big headway. the other thing, economic situation of folks is not in a
4:04 pm
great situation. we don't have a super robust economy and a lot of people are suffering and some of the challenges being able to afford. but were i think there is a real opportunity for innovation is also recognizing that because the economy is changing dramatically in how people learn and make a living is dramatically different, and you've got large changes in demographics. there's a lot of work to be done in understanding the ability to repay and now that is different than it has been historically. the models are always backward looking. it's going to be uncomfortable and difficult for them to project that going forward but that's the very the development needs to go on. i think there is a lot of work going on and a lot of innovation that it's going to take a little bit of time. it's going to take some willingness to go out there. that's where the areas are otherwise i don't think it's large, you know, we certainly
4:05 pm
don't want to see new innovation on products i think relative to house prices are rising in these markets and let's go do alone or negatively amortizing look at these kind of things. that's one of the great things that have stabilized and gives me a lot of comfort. >> real quick. if laurie goodman has shown, the prototype is your number one predictor. the second quick point is just what cheney is doing now i hope it works well. their new product relates to what the chairman said before lunch -- change. we've got to look at it different from the way we look at it. >> excellent responses. we have like room for one or two questions. over there.
4:06 pm
>> i want to pick up on a point that juliet raised. we put out a report on negative equity rates and found that in 1000 counties negative equity rates are higher, getting worse and another 600 counties they are finally getting better but they are still quite high. i'm curious what the panelists think that hud and fhfa computer trying to ensure that come to help these markets recover and make sure that not walloped with another round of foreclosures and vacancies? >> i think the portmac and refinance program basically do that. -- harp. >> there are some long seriously delinquent, a large piece of the stuff that's underwater we never been a look at these markets, like five years. there's some serious
4:07 pm
delinquencies and those are very difficult and challenging things to address. and so while the nonperforming loan sales are not a solution to every piece of it and you have to be careful and we tried to address and want to continue to address some of the challenges in the guidelines of who gets to do with the obligation ours. i think there's more to be done. but one of the things to keep in mind that there is the alternatives they just sit there and there's nothing going on and then this movement to a different service or afford another opportunity and other tools to give the movie. went to continue to work through those pieces. that is more work to be done there, sarah, and an extension was part of the neighborhood stabilization at the enterprises is another piece of it. >> i think also it's about treating different buckets of delinquent loans even differently. because selling off relatively
4:08 pm
high-value decent condition note is very different than selling a bunch of vacant. and so far we haven't seen real different treatment of them from these government bulk sales programs, and help going forward maybe we do tranche that a little bit more and try to be a little more targeted. for example, if one of your reasons to sell some of these things off this if you're fha and feel your servicers came to principal reduction or if you're a just and you don't want to principal reduction, there is this idea that the note buyers getting a discount will be in a better position and economically consented to to principal reduction but by that we don't have a requirement that they do that. similarly doing down to 115 might be fine in one area but if you're in an area where home values are stagnating first of decline, maybe you would want to get that person down to 90 or
4:09 pm
somewhere else to really make sure modification works. >> i think we've hit the witching hour. i want to thank this panel, what an excellent bunch of insights, all of you, for being here. thank you. [applause] >> tonight at 8 p.m. eastern, mazizar bahari about his time in an iranian prison inspired of jon stewart's film rose water. here's mazizar bahari about his relationship with the people who interrogated him in prison. >> when i was in prison and when those being interrogated, my interrogators somehow became -- when i get into present our thoughts on god intended us and i'll write an article for "newsweek" called 10 days in an
4:10 pm
iranian jail. 10 days began 20 days and 30 days for decided to write the book that every time you with say something stupid or he was making the presumption about my life for a life in the west, i was making mental notes. and i was just trying to add color to it, asking the question. and basically he did not have any other human contact because he has spent all his time in the interrogation room. he was tired of talking to his buddies, a relish records is sometimes he was confided in me. is telling about his personal life. i could hear his conversations with his wife again sometime when he was beating me he was talking to his wife. i remember one day he was holding my hair and just twisting my hair. really, really painful.
4:11 pm
he kept on twisting my. and while he was talking on the phone, which are just let go of my ear? and then he hit my head and said, i'm talking on the phone, be quiet. just really -- >> mazizar bahari is joined by tim greenberg for the discussion hosted by the harvard university institute of politics. tonight at 8 p.m. eastern. >> french president holland that with president obama earlier today about the recent terror attacks in paris and strategy for combating faces. that you just finished up a joint news conference and you can see that tonight at 8 p.m. eastern on c-span. >> this things can weaken american history tv on c-span3 has four days of future program beginning this thursday at 4 p.m. eastern will take you
4:12 pm
inside the national world war ii newseum in new orleans as a look back 70 years to the war's end and its legacy.
4:13 pm
>> health and human services secretary sylvia burwell leads off the department's forum on pharmaceutical innovation, access, affordability and better health. later health industry professionals talk about patient access and find the balance between innovations and smarter spending. [applause] >> thank you, susan, for the introduction and for facilitating our discussion today. i also want to thank everyone joining us, the consumers, health care professionals, employers, manufacturers, insurance issuers, government representatives, and all of our other partners. this is a diverse group of stakeholders, and each of you is crucial to the complex conversation we're having today. as we look at prescription
4:14 pm
drugs, we can see possibilities and challenges. with an explosion of innovation, we have the opportunity to find new medicines, therapies, and cures. we have the chance to improve the quality of life for those suffering from diseases today and help prevent many more. we can contribute to innovation in our economy. at the same time, when medical technology advances, we must confront issues of access, quality and affordability. hepatitis c, for example, affects around 3 million people in the u.s. and claims more lives here than aids. new drugs have revolutionized treatment and improved cure rates. treatments, however, can cost more than $100,000. and that's an issue for both patients and the organizations and governments that serve them. since more than three out of four infected adults are baby boomers, this disease has become
4:15 pm
one of the main cost drivers for medicare's prescription program. impacts have also been significant in state medicaid programs. recognizing that we need both access and affordability, we recently issued a notice to all 50 state medicaid directors to remind them of their obligatio to cover these treatments, basd on medical evidence, as well as of the tools they have to manage the costs. we also sent letters to drug manufacturers, requesting information on pricing arrangements and ideas on how we can encourage sustainable prices and increase access to these drugs. new medical breakthroughs can change lives, but we must make sure that they are available to those who need them. for the sake of patients, our health care system and our economy, we must simultaneously support innovation, access and affordability. today, we know that too many americans struggle to afford the
4:16 pm
medications they need. a recent kaiser survey showed that almost a quarter of americans have skipped filling a prescription over the last year. costs for medicines are up, and that is even more pronounced for specialty drugs. in fact, about 65% of spending on new drugs over the last two years was for specialty drugs. we've also recently seen price increases for drugs that are not new. nationwide, our spending on specialty drugs was about $87 billion in 2012, roughly 25% of our total drug spending. that's also a little more than 3% of national health spending. but it's been estimated that it could quadruple by 2020, reaching about $400 billion. that would be more than 9% of national health spending. this issue has ramifications across our health system. drug treatments can mean
4:17 pm
hundreds of millions of dollars in new spending for states. prescription drugs can also bring health costs down. when patients can better manage their chronic conditions like diabetes and high blood pressure, they experience fewer complications. we can see a reduction in hospital admissions. and we can see the benefits of pharmaceutical innovation beyond health outcomes and costs. the drug industry is a dynamic engine for our economy and helps create jobs. i hear concerns about rising drug costs as i travel across the country, from state officials, ceos, providers, insurers and, of course, patients and families. many wonder if it's possible to have both innovation and affordability. this is a complex problem, and we know the solution will not be simple. but it is a problem we must solve. and i know none of us accepts
4:18 pm
that we must choose between innovation and a health care system that can provide access to affordable medicines that can heal us and improve our lives. many of you have heard me say that i believe we have a historic opportunity to transform our health care system to one that delivers better care, smarter spending, and healthier people. i believe that the same principles that guide that transformation can guide us here, and that some of the same fundamental approaches can be put to work on this set of issues. in the last five years, the goals of access, affordability, and quality have guided our efforts to reduce the number of uninsured in america. and we've made incredible strides. in fact as the provisions of the aca have gone into effect, an estimated 17.6 million americans have gained coverage. with new benefits like prescription coverage and preventive care at no extra
4:19 pm
cost, we've not only drastically increased access, we've also raised the quality of coverage for everyone. and we're continuing to transform our health care system into one that delivers quality over quantity and puts the patient in the center of their care. we have experimented and implemented successful efforts to find new payment models. we are changing incentives, improving how care is delivered, and using information in better ways. through the fda, we're also working to find ways to expedite accelerated drug development pathways and improve the review process. and we're working with many of you in this room to find ways to deliver better care, spend health care dollars more wisely, and empower and engage patients to take control of their health. as we work to strike the balance between fostering innovation and keeping drugs accessible and affordable, we must let the
4:20 pm
principle of putting the consumer at the center guide our thinking. and i hope that principle will guide our thinking in today's discussions and panels as well. as you can tell from our agenda, there are several areas we hope to focus on. the title of today's forum itself tells an ambitious story, how our nation can lead in pharmaceutical innovation and deliver access to high quality, affordable medicines. our first panel focuses on how we foster innovation while promoting smarter spending. we need to understand both the potential impact of new drugs on patient care and how these breakthroughs impact rising costs. next, we'll be discussing access and affordability. what is happening in doctors' offices, around the kitchen table, and in policy conversations? how can we make sure patients have access to the drugs they need?
4:21 pm
next, we'll talk about what's working and best practices. we want to hear about new value and outcomes-based purchasing strategies and best approaches. and we want to think about ways that can be implemented by medicaid and medicare. we want to hear your thoughts on how to increase access to information and improve transparency, promote competition and develop innovative purchasing strategies that incorporate value and outcomes-based models into both public and private sector programs. we believe that patients, manufacturers, providers, insurers and government all share a common goal. and with a common goal, we can find common ground. working together, we can deliver for the people we serve. americans are depending on us, to find innovative new drugs and help them access the care they need. we're here today to listen and learn.
4:22 pm
and we are so happy to have each of your voices in this discussion. with all of us engaged in this conversation, we can come together to find a solution that meets the needs of our wide and diverse community. we believe in a bright future, and that the possibilities to improve people's lives are endless. and we believe that though this problem is complex, we know that action will be needed from all of us here today. we know that we can find solutions. we won't agree on everything, but we have to come together if we're ever going to move forward. together, we can find a path that doesn't ask us to choose between innovation and affordability. because our citizens deserve both. i look forward to this conversation. and thank you all so much for joining us today. [applause]
4:23 pm
>> thank you so much, secretary burwell, thank you for laying out the path that we will be exploring further today as we discussed the benefits that patients of innovation, the issues around affordability, specialty drugs of course and patients and consumers at the center of all of this. the program today is being webcast and the question and answer period that follows the presentations also will be webcast. after each panel we will have an opportunity indeed for the russian and answer session to ask that you come to the microphone here in the center aisle to ask your question. and even though we all have a tendency to either ask questions or give a short speeches masquerading as questions, today we would like to give you all in effect ask your question a very succinct way so we can get to as many questions as possible. i would introducing the
4:24 pm
presenters and panel everybody with name and affiliation more or less. their full biographies are available on the forum website. now as the sectors they were going to start with some table setting to our first recitation examines the balance between innovation and smarter spending. the drivers of drug costs currently, the impact of those costs on to their stakeholders and the need to find a balance between innovation and smarter spending initiative. sso to set that their import table we're joined by two leading voices in this entire area. first we're going to from doug long who is vice president of industry relations at ims health, the world's largest pharmaceutical information company. ims health offers his services to the pharmaceutical industry and to others in more than 100 countries around the globe. after doug speaks with her from mark mcclellan, m.d., ph.d, senior collector of health care
4:25 pm
innovation and value initiative at the brookings institution here in washington. mark has a long list of credentials but a particular pertinence is the fact that he served as administrator of centers for medicaid and medicare services here charged with preventing the medicare part d prescription drug program among many other responsibilities during his tenure. he also was formally commissioner of food and drug administration. doug is going to start with a look at the current environment and what we might expect in the coming years from date perspective it seems that he will turn the podium over to mark. so doug, welcome. [applause] >> thank you, susan but it's a pleasure and honor to be here. it's been a long year, and i think this might be my last speech of the after think it is number 85 that depicted in
4:26 pm
different countries including belgium and france in the last month. what i want to do is kind of level set where we are today, and would talk about the balance between innovation and smarter spending. first of all since 2014 the u.s. market has been back to double-digit pharmaceutical growth. what i want to say is that we do this on invoice price or list price we do not net out the rebates. i've got some opinions about what the market looks like with those out. so we are back to double-digit growth. i've been looking at this market since 1989 and i would say i've seen three cycles we have been in. the previous cycle where we are double-digit growth from the late 90s to early 2003 was what i called a primary blockbuster era when lipitor came to the market and flat fix and all those. some people said in 1999 when we ended the next millennium is
4:27 pm
that we would see double-digit pharmaceutical growth forever. that didn't happen because the generic wave happened. it happened probably started in earnest in 2000 when prozac went off the. for the last 15 years it's been a tremendous impact in terms of savings in the market. the cycle we are in now started off as a biological cycle come and knock on the specialty cycle. and specialty is 35% of the spending, some people predict it will be 50% of the spending in the year 2020. when you look at this double-digit growth, in 2012 the market actually went down. that was your lipitor went off patent. flat fix went off patent. single that went off patent. lexical went off patent. and so forth. $35 billion terms of equal value went generic during the course
4:28 pm
of that year. connection was a modest year of 3.5% increase in the we had 2014. and 2014 the story was hepatitis c. if you recall it was introduced to the market in december of 2013 and one years time it became the largest single product in the united states both specialty and general product overall. the story of hepatitis c is, it's sheer envy, it's the people you're able to treat now. the number of people treated today is six times more than it was five years ago. so in this double-digit growth and look at last year's 12% growth or 12.5% growth come if you look at price contribution to this growth, that was 3.1 of that 12.5%. so most of it is coming from utilization, not anything else. that's because of the innovation in the marketplace.
4:29 pm
specialty sf 35% of the spending. you can see it is increased each year. it's growing at a 24% rate. by traditional pharmaceutical products are going at 8%. the net effect is about 13%. so we expect and i will let on to you what particular areas that you should be watching out for. so generics have made a contribution our member i said generic arrow from your 2000 today today is generics of all those dollar growth in the marketplace only can shooting 9% of the market growth. whereas in 2011 it was 40%. we had some years in the previous decade is that was 90% of the growth came from generics. to all of this has kind of turned around by innovation. we can't forget the contribution generics have made to save health care system money because
4:30 pm
the study we do each year recently revealed we have saved $1.7 trillion in the last 10 years by the availability of low-cost generic drugs. almost $250 billion in the last year. we are up 83% generic penetration is going to go a little higher then it will stabilize. so just a kind of summary of where we are today. so we are now growing at 12.3% and we now have a marketplace that is more than $400 billion for the first time. and hepatitis c, diabetes and oncology are the primary drivers of the spending growth. prescription growth is 1.2% for the year. that is a substantial reduction from last year. the primary effect is to reschedule of hydrocodone and to more restrictive schedule which cut that market by 30%.
4:31 pm
and also you have more chronic care prescriptions are 90 day prescriptions. and 75% of the new brand spending is on specially. you can't look at this market without talking about specialty. you also have had this year, nexium has gone off patent, abilify. and next year we expect crest door to go after this is what's driving spending growth. it is a hepatitis is at the top followed by diabetes, oncology, autoimmune, multiple sclerosis, hiv, respiratory, nervous system, and so forth. almost all of the big five are in the specialty area. and if you look close at this like him i'm going to see me get copies of this later, you can see what the significant impacts are in each of these things. we break it down by new brands
4:32 pm
what's going on with protected risk of what's going on with the generics and patent expired respect we look at hepatitis and the secretary specific look at hepatitis c drugs, most of the growth is because of innovation. this innovation is brought us the first cure especially that we've ever seen and 96% of the patients will be cured within eight to 12 weeks. this is revolutionary. diabetes is a combination of innovation and what's going on in growth of protected brand. oncology, ucf little bit of impact on the loss of exclusivity. a lot of innovation oncology, a lot of growth of existing brands and oncology the difference today versus 10 years ago is oncology is more a chronic disease today than a death sentence it was years ago. now, when you look at new brand
4:33 pm
spending is the biggest impact is hepatitis c. if you just follow this chart along you see the impact of new brand spending in years going back to the year 2010. so you see those numbers average 6.7 billion, then went to about $10 billion, if it jumped up to $25 billion worth of new brand spending or innovation and 2014, and through june 15 the last 12 months over $30 billion. gc the biggest chunk of that is hepatitis c. and you also orphan disease drugs on this chart that are growing, also oncology, multiple sclerosis, autoimmune and so forth. when you look at the specialty market, the characteristics of the specialty market are very different than the traditional pharmaceutical marketplace. and you see the contrast between the left side and the right side. the first thing you will see on specialty is the value of innovation specialty.
4:34 pm
so the biggest reason the specialty growth is growing the way that it is today is because of innovation in the market place. the best example of that is the hepatitis c category. so if you follow that category just for a moment, is that that category has been progressing for a long period of time. in 2011 the previous generation of hepatitis c products into the marketplace. and and they got a patient come an increase in patient population, and then all of a sudden making going to a halt because people were waiting for the next new thing, which was the new generation of hepatitis c products. what's interesting is that previous generation is no longer on the market. because of the newer generation less side effects. so innovation, then you look at loss of exclusivity or generics really played a very little role in specialty. and the role that you will see playing be more on biosimilars
4:35 pm
that will be on generics going forward. if you look at traditional you see that the generics have definitely impacted that trend through time, all that trend is listening. 2012 was the big as i mentioned. you see innovation is up but a lot of the activity is at the growth on protected brands, some of which would b the price increases. these are the top 10 categories that we spend pharmaceutical dollars on, and to represent 56.5% of all the spending of what we spend on pharmaceuticals. and just another note just to keep in mind is that pharmaceuticals are only 10-12% of what we spend of health care. so that means we spend 80% of the money elsewhere. so i think this is one of the better values. if you look at anti-diabetes followed by oncology, autoimmune, respiratory, mental
4:36 pm
health, pain, viral hepatitis, multiple sclerosis, hiv, and many of these are specialty categories. and those are the ones that have increases. if you look at the increase on hepatitis c, that's 144% increase from the previous 12 months. most of the other ones in the range of 20 or 30%. just some notes when you look down this slide is that diabetes category is up because there's more diabetic patients all the time. there's more innovation in that category there will be some biosimilars or some lower cost alternatives coming that category within the next two years. oncology went to look at pd1s. pee ones that work with him you know system to help treat the cancer. so that category will go up. out of onion should stay. respiratory to be some generic competition in one of the bigger players in respiratory.
4:37 pm
mental health already going down because abilify, the largest drug and mental health lost its exclusivity in may of this year. and that i just want to make a point about the last one which is lipid regulated. lipid regulators you see here is a $13.5 billion category. it once was a $25 billion category when all these products had to patent protection. so generics have saved in excess of $15 billion or so in the last few years and mixture when crest door goes off that category will be some $10 billion. the challenge will be is what we now have is a pcsk9. which are specialty cholesterol drugs. cvs has said that these drugs come everybody got in would add 100 of dollars to health care spending to that can -- united
4:38 pm
states pic of her spending $1.5 billion from we would have the risk we could spend up to $100 billion. so that's what appropriate uses can be very important. these are the next 10 so going up, some going to you see a function of nexium losing its patent. let's look at leading categories on growth and who you want to look at the far right inside and you see, these are the categories growing the most. so viral hepatitis up $8.7 billion. this is 12 months ending september 15. i can tell you women looked at 12 months ending june of 15 is that number was in the $9 billion range. so looks as though that may have started to peak interest of explosive growth in habitats. analogs -- you look at number seven, these are the new and
4:39 pm
used a lot of advertising on those. those are going that most of these things you see on the list are specialty products all going more than a billion dollars. and you at number 11 and number 12 we have 12 categories in excess of $12 billion. the challenge is come is the generic conversion is only subtracted $7 billion of health care spending and the new brand spending is up over $30 billion. that presents a significant challenge to the payers. including the government and medicare and medicaid and commercial insurance. now let's move to approvals. and this looks at fda approvals from 2005 on the 2014. and note that 2014 we have the most approvals that we had in the previous decade. 50 of these. of those 50, 26%, or 26 of them
4:40 pm
were specialty drugs, and that meant 52% of all the approvals were specialty drugs. if you look back between the years 2005-14, specially represent 55% of the approvals. the last five years it's been 57% of the approvals. so more approvals are coming on specialty than on traditional pharmaceutical products. another way to look at that is a late stage pipeline, phase one, face-to-face three. there's 3622 products that have been filed and the other significance is 779 our orphan drugs. so rare disease of drugs and orphan drugs have been very pronounced in the last few years. 32% in the late phase. that's 250 products.
4:41 pm
when you look at the 55% injections, that goes hand in hand with specialty drugs. not as much as it had in the past we didn't see any oral specialty drugs, but still very pronounced. so we expect that the next five years will be very pronounced in terms of approval of new active substances, non-new active substances and all indications. there's a lot more to come in the pipeline and the fda has been very productive in approving these products. we just published a report this week that look at the global use of medicines, and i'm going to share a couple charged with you on that. if you need to get a hold of it, please contact me on this. here's what our notion is that what we are going to look at interest of disease treatments between now and 2020.
4:42 pm
so in 2020, worldwide will be 943 new active substances introduced in the prior 25 years. the new medications in the biologics. patients will have greater access to breakthrough medicines, through hepatitis c, autoimmune diseases, heart disease, orphan disease and others by 2020. cancer treatments or oncology will represent the largest category with 225 medicines expected to be introduced within the next five years. technology will enable changes in treatment protocols, shift paging engagement, accountability and patient provide interaction et cetera and the adoption of behavior changes rubin to improve patient adherence to medicines. 400 -- just think about their 7000 rare diseases.
4:43 pm
we have only scratched the surface on this. and these have been revolutionary for people that have huntington's disease, cystic fibrosis. these have been revolutionary for them. and then the other thing is about spending on orphan drugs worldwide will be one to 2% of the spam in 2020 will be as much as 10% in the u.s. one thing i did not mention earlier is that when you look at specialty spend which is 35% in the united states is that only represents one to 2% of the prescriptions. so one to 2% of the prescriptions is leading to 35% of specialty spend. so here's an illustration of the progress that we made worldwide in terms of innovation. the right inside shows you which ones are going to be specially biologics, which ones will be traditional biologics,
4:44 pm
traditional molecules and specialty small molecules. and you see that most of the growth was happening on the specialty side of the breakdown in the middle chart shows you what that is. to give you an illustration of this of how the world is going to be different, take cancer for a minute. is that cancer by 2020 in the united states is 91% of the cancer drugs will be targeted your versus -- targeted. versus harmonium. 33% of these will have biomarkers. so we are moving in the direction is that you'll be able to make sure that cancer drug is going to work on the person before you give it to them. even in cancer, 33% in 2020, these will be rare disease cancer drugs. so very specific rare disease types of cancer.
4:45 pm
when you look at hepatitis c, this is worldwide. ..
4:46 pm
now where you really see the price competition in the marketplace is where you have multiple entries into that molecule, and that is likely to happen in the next few years. i show this chart because most of these biologics, their patents expire between now and the end of the decade. coincidentally at the same time it starts to happen there will be opportunities in the marketplace. but just one note,, across 1,000,002,000,000 to bring a small molecule generic where cost 100 to 200 million to bring a bio similar to the marketplace.
4:47 pm
the secretary talked about avoidable cost, and this is a study we did in 2012 this is that we can save 213 billion per year if we did the six things on the right-hand side. the 1st is medication nonadherence which is still a big problem in the united states and the counselor about a hundred billion worth of additional spending delayed evidence -based treatment is 2nd followed by antibiotic -- antibiotic misuse. mismanaged polypharmacy is senior citizens that may be taking ten are 50 different drugs by five different doctors, no one reconciles them command generally it means you take fewer if reconciled. of this money, 140 billion of it is saved at hospitals
4:48 pm
because what happens is, you take a pharmaceutical and appropriately and generally those people end up in hospitals.hospitals. we could save as many as 10 million hospitalizations per year. the next is outpatient, 75 billion, 45 billion or 78 million outpatient visits , and you see down at the bottom'sbottom is emergency room visits. we still have 4 million emergency room visits now, whatnow, what you see on prescriptions is, in some cases if you have less use of antibiotic, pure prescriptions. better managed polypharmacy, that is pure prescriptions, but you would have more prescriptions of people were more compliant. not going forward and spending growth, what we expect in the marketplace between now and 2020, and
4:49 pm
the important thing is command as i get older my eyes it weaker and i cannot read the screen here, you are seeing nowthat we are expecting the growth rate to slowdown. we expect the compound growth in this marketplace to be five to 8% between now and the end of the decade. right now we are in the bulk , and it will slow down. if that list price we are looking at a marketplace of 560 to 590 billion which is a 34 percent increase over 2014, and we expect spending to stay about the same. now, let me leave you with some closing thoughts. because they have electric shocks appear if i go late, but i believe that i have two minutes to go through the slide. specialty spending is on the rise. 35 percent of the dollars
4:50 pm
and 2 percent of the prescriptions. the fastest. the fastest-growing areas are hep c, oncology, diabetes, and orphan drugs. the newthe new hepatitis c drugs or cures, the 1st special secures we have seen innovation and more patients treated our major drivers of this trend, so we will see more patients treated. the payer focus, and steve miller will talk about this this afternoon, hepatitis c is on the pcs k-9 for the reason i mention, the potential to be the hundred billion dollar category. pd one and orphan drugs although i have not heard a lot of price discretion. now, think for a minute, the secretary said, 3 million patients treated with hepatitis d in the united states. the prices of these products came out around 100,000 and
4:51 pm
most say that they are now because of better negotiation in the 50,000 range, but if you assume 50,000 for 300 patient as hundred and 50 billion. you have the pcs k-9's, the potential of $200 billion is spent. the pd ones undetermined but the next new thing and orphan drugs are often in excess of 200,000 apiece. and then just for a minute if we developed the 1st successful alzheimer's or dementia treatment how many people have alzheimer's and dementia in the united states, how much that would cost. we will have this big challenge so that the innovation is there. the ability to treat more patients. management tools bio similars and the more you
4:52 pm
have on the market the more prices will come down. their version. make sure you are giving the right drug to the right patient population, and i think that they will be keen on controlling that. exclusive contracts in price negotiations, we have seen that on hepatitis c, and my last thought is we need more appropriate use of medicines which we will save money in the marketplace. with that thank you for your kind attention. [applause] >> good morning. it is a pleasure to be with all of you on this important topic of getting innovation,
4:53 pm
better health access and affordability and healthcare and particularly for prescription drugs critical for all americans and i appreciate hhs bring together diverse viewpoints and bring together this thoughtful approach of the significant issue.ñr also to the commonwealth fund for their support of our work and closely related areas. and that is, i want to pick up or down left off and going to a bigger picture around some of the trends in spending some of the issues around value in the policy steps that might be taken to address the challenge of achieving all of these goals at the same time. i want to talk about health outcome in spendingand spending trends trying to frame some of the comments that i just made and talk about the options around balancing access versus innovation other approaches that could
4:54 pm
improve access and i want to highlight that there are different issues for different types of drugs, oral drugs versus intravenous drugs, medical office or hospital and the role of generics and bio similars, as doug noted. value -based drug payment reforms and incorporating reformers affecting drug pricing i want to start out with this point about one side of that. this tremendous impact of pharmaceutical innovation with more to come. so lots of diseases have been transformed. diabetes, hiv.
4:55 pm
i remember when i was in medical training and we cannot do anything. now that is transformed thanks to pharmaceutical progress. many genetic disorders and other diseases that previously fatal. declined by 20 percent. declined 80 percent in the last 20 years and mortality and morbidity will be declining as well. and this is just the front end of changes that are coming. there are over 7,000 drugs in development they are targeted therapies that fall into the specialty class
4:56 pm
because of the high prices. and that gets to why this discussion of value pharmaceuticals is so important. several components of this, one is the impact of aborted healthcare cost. i heard about that already. secondary impacts on nonmedical costs like enabling people to get back to work on being more productive in their jobs. the secretary mentioned that the pharmaceutical industry brings with it a high level of r&d spending and a lot of economic growth with high-quality jobs in the industry, but the most important thing to emphasize about drugs and other medical technologies is their impact on this last., longer and better life for americans. takingtaking hep c drugs, some estimates have suggest significant downstream cost saves.
4:57 pm
offset even five years out and 20 years out, not all the prices are offset. they are overall a pretty good deal, run 18 or 20,000 per quality. a technicalthe technical term to capture this notion of cost-effectiveness. there has appropriately been a lot of emphasis in recent months and years the value of these new drugs, especially the high cost specialty drugs. cancer care, ccm, i have come up with frameworks. there is a nice report and
4:58 pm
some of the challenges in them. it is hard to capture all of these dimensions in a way that makes sense for patients with different preferences about how they want to trade off safety issues on the other hand, there is a lot of evidence that the value of the drugs on the market today vary tremendously with some drugs and indications worth on the order of $2000 per quality adjusted life, good value, life, good value, others at 200,000, 500,000 or more, and different methods lead to different answers, challenging estimates but no question, a lot of variation out there in the context of what have been valuable contributions to improving health. and with that framing, no wonder there is so much attention to the cost of
4:59 pm
prescription drugs and rising cost. we are seeing a shift of prescription drugs, more 1st in class drugs. you heard earlier that specialty drugs are approaching over 40 percent, headed toward 50 percent or more command we have had this bump in recent years and spending growth. probably a little hard to read, but the vertical bars or annual spending growth rates for prescription drugs, the line going up throughout to 2014 there trends in overall national health expenditures, and you can see the phase that doug mentioned earlier followed by a slowdown in prescription drug spending growth contributing to the overall spending growth slowdown and a big push up recently due to such things as trends with hepatitis c drugs which is expected to
5:00 pm
be moderated in the next few years, as doug highlighted in detail. thisthis is a chart that breaks out the experience with prescription drug growth by different payers, and the last couple of years have been a particularly tough time for spending growth for medicaid programs related to hep cc and specialty drug trends. private health growth has been particularly slow, but looking forward while the overall spending trends are moderating come particularly for medicaid programs, the growth rates are expected to be higher than they have been in the past. and thisand this means -- you think this would mean prescription drugs are contributing more, and there is some upward trend expected in that. according to the national health expenditure estimate prescription drugs have remained around 10 percent of overall spending which includes much of the
5:01 pm
nonretail use of drugs, drugs administered in hospitals and other places, not in retail settings which could get the number of the 13 or 14 percent. i want to highlight a pointa point that doug made, if you wish to address overall healthcare spending it is important to look at not only the direct cost of drugs or the impact of use of drugs and other parts, and i we will come back to that as well. also, out-of-pocket drug spending has been a significant issue for a growing number of americans who depend upon specialty drugs in the overall context that has been a significant part of overall healthcare spending, but not the only story, again, highlighting the importance of thinking about drugs in the context of overall spending. that said, out-of-pocket spending is higher for
5:02 pm
patients with many kind of disorders. out-of-pocket spending is higher than that for hospital care, professional service care and other components of healthcare which suggests that there may be some ways of addressing the concerns about out-of-pocket costs by taking on how to bring down overall cost in the context of prescription drugs, prescription drug use. so with that as a way of framing up the bigger cost and value issues that were brought up by doug discussion no specific trends in pharmaceutical use i want to turn to some of the policy options. these debates fall into a couple of different categories. one is around how much to emphasize access now and getting affordability now versus incentives for innovation which is where debates around how long should a drug patent life be, how easy it should be from bio
5:03 pm
similar drugs to come in and compete. also is pressure on pricing. a lot of proposals for medicare price negotiation or government price negotiation. about that amounts to is saying that medicare, like medicaid she get the best price for particular drugs, not really negotiation. a lot of the initiation that goes on, as you heard from doug the pharmaceutical benefit managers are involved in terms of selective formularies and utilization review and other steps that can help bring down prices but may also have impact on access. in contrast would be allowing more unrestricted pricing which many people talk about being part of a competitive market, free market pricing. but keep in mind, most of these prices are paid by a 3rd party insurance plan
5:04 pm
which is why they are taking steps through utilization review and other ways of limiting utilization since the price is not actually something paid out-of-pocket by the consumer which is why we have this debate. again, it is a balance between access versus innovation. one further point that has been raised, some of the steps that fda and industry and academic groups are taking to try to make the process for developing drugs more predictable and efficient can be supported by things like investments and precision medicine and better data systems to predict much more accurately which patients will respond. that is a question only having an impact on drug development and in some cases substantially reducing the cost and uncertainty of drug development but it is important to keep in mind the costs of reduction is not directly related to the price and value of a drug. the costs are sunk at the time the drug comes to market which is why many of
5:05 pm
the efforts to look at value around cost-effectiveness and systems that i talked about earlier are focusing on the actual price versus what the drug is doing in terms of impact and outcome for patients. there is another type of policy reform proposal that the secretary emphasized, ones that promote both access and innovation. well, how can you have both? policy reforms the strengthen the incentives for developing valuable treatment focusing more support while at the same time discouraging high prices that don't reflect value and lead to access utilization in cases where value is lowlower negative and thus lead to unnecessary spending on pharmaceuticals, and you will here more about these proposals later today as well and debates about the role of government versus private sector in undertaking these kinds of efforts.
5:06 pm
so i wanti want to talk about these efforts in the context of specific types of drugs. on the one hand, oral and self-administered drugs are included in prescription drug benefit we paying through pharmacies and the big cost control efforts in order to target high-value indications involving pharmacy, benefit managers with some of the lower cost drugs are more valuable. in this area some of the proposals that have been before that could potentially encourage innovation and reduce spending growth are getting more competing drugs to the market faster which is something that the fda perhaps not as part of the explicit policy has had a role in. for example, hepatitis c drugs have been a big part of this cost discussion.
5:07 pm
it was all approved under a new breakthrough designation pathway for the fda that brought drugs to market faster, not just the 1st one but others that were in development at the same time potentially accelerating the new treatment and competing brands to help bring down prices for competition that would be available as well and there have been proposals for more accountability for insurers to encourage them to take further steps to keep costs down. in the medicare program today close to half of the spending is in the catastrophic part of the drug benefit now. that is up and a reflection of the trend toward more use of higher-priced specialty drugs that can have a very big impact. mostmost of the cost in that range are paid for by the government through help with those additional costs with medicare covering 80 percent of the cost and the catastrophic range.
5:08 pm
a different model might be putting more accountability on the insurers. also, i will talk in a few minutes about models in which manufacturers may have more accountability for the payments associated with drugs and the outcomes as wellç and we will talk about during the course of the day including drug payment and water efforts to reform healthcare payments. on another type of drug use involves intravenous or physician administered drugs, drugs that are generally administered in a physician office or the hospital, a lot of the specialty cancer drugs that come into play, this has a different kind of pricing system that generally does not involve pbm's and formulary management rather medicare has a system here where the payment rate is based on the average sales
5:09 pm
price, afp. intended to reflect the price paid by providers. they use it as a reference. medicare and other third-party payers is the best way to encourage high-value or if it is a contributor. in terms of reform see her as it turned out so far like the bio similarssimilar subject was describing, this
5:10 pm
could be a more viable option. you will hear about the 340 b program. medicare has had consideration drugs that medicare do similar shift to value -based payments are links to broader payment reform model. the 3rd category a generic and soon to come bio similar drug. you heard from drug, the billions of dollars in saving i also want to
5:11 pm
highlightok the importance of similar brand drugs being available. in the same class, brandon drugs has led to significant price declines as well. this is projected to go even higher. brand-name drugs make up a small or smaller part of the total expenditures this will account for an increasingly important part of overall drug spending as well. some of the issues involved here are that the practice does not always match the theory.
5:12 pm
not new brand-name drugs like we talked about before that they have been on the market for a long time and can be characterized as branded generics were high prices seem to persist. companies able to raise prices another important area for further policy development to help it work better. generic drug user fees and other challenges in getting products to market, even small molecule drugs especially if the market is not that big you may be hard for other manufacturers to come in, some steps to be taken to address it. they are coming, still are a
5:13 pm
lot of policy issues how they impact formulary pricing. it will be more significant and since many of these bio similars involved part b drugs they will be challenges around how to price them. i want to end the just a few comments about where things are headed next in terms of payment for drugs. andand talk a lot about some of the alternatives for higher prices versus more access you will here more today about approaches based on prior evidence such as indications specific pricing , people like peter bok has proposed the approach.
5:14 pm
based on some of the emerging methods, better evidence on drug treatment to support these kinds of approaches. outcome based pricing right now we are beginning to see this. value -based insurance plan the most cost effective. higher the less well in terms of outcome that helps
5:15 pm
the insurers take steps to make those drugs more available for high-risk patients, better measures of outcomes. we have the measures that can be observed. hepatitis c degenerative diseases, for example. diseases, for example. better outcome measures and also what is needed is better evidence on the impact of drugs on outcomes. lots of other factors besides the drugs themselves other collaborative efforts other collaborative efforts to get to a learning
5:16 pm
healthcare system are really important. and in moving to these new payment models there are regulatory issues that would have to be addressed. getting in the way of adopting that new kind of payment model. highlight the importance of including drugs and broader payment reform. the department of health and human services and the bipartisan goal that has been reflected in the recent physician payment reform legislation, macro to moved alternative payment models for physicians and the other healthcare providers that they work with. many of these models right now could put more accountability on healthcare providers for using high-value drugs effectively things like legal pathways
5:17 pm
based on measures the physicians involved in care, the hospitals involving care could have to take on more accountability for using drugs efficiently drug manufacturers may share in this accountability for financial risk based on results of care, based on accountability for care. and thiscare. and this is really an important feature of moving toward more personalized medicine. the value of a drug based on healthcare providers could do to improve the value drug
5:18 pm
sales and other promotions are really better aligned this may be a great alternative. you don't get a valuable but effective drug that could work for you until you fail all the others 1st. our current payment systems are based on the paper pill approach taking a new look
5:19 pm
at how medicaid best priced. confident improving access and innovation.
5:20 pm
about 35% of sales, sales,35 percent of sales, as you said, the new oncology drugs, hep c drugs, pcs k-9 and the cholesterol drugs etc. generic drugs which were the big one. constituting 9 percent of sales annually. both of you what we have ahead of us in the pipeline is amazing and impressive. a number of novel active substances. already on the market, and market, and as you said very powerfully, we are getting value out of these drugs in terms of avoided
5:21 pm
health cost, avoided medical expenditures. now, both. now, both of you referenced the kind of cost savings potential we have, whether getting patients to adhere more to the drugs they ought to be taking, having more evidence -based treatment of coverage without its development, correct use of drugs, you mentioned that use of antibiotics and lots of other management tools that we have as well as policy options. we can like a different approaches for incorporating drugs in the some of the new payment model. we can look at some opportunities for putting part d more intod more into integration of other payments. so there is lots of potential to capture some savings and yet also achieve a lot of the value of care. with that let's open up to questions from all of you. if you wouldif you would
5:22 pm
keep the questions the saint and keep yourself by name and affiliation. >> ilene woods, chief pharmacy officer in albany, new york. pharmacist for 35 years. they both talked about the value of generics and in particular the concern of treating diabetes. one example in my question. when i was a new pharmacist that human insulin just came out and they came out around $20 a$20 a vile and we thought, how could people possibly afford this over. so today that same vile of human insulin is over $250, so nothing has changed. it is not a new product. my question to you is, has either one of your organizations measured, aside from the value that we captured and generics, aside from the cost and the trends in the new innovation what
5:23 pm
is the impact of just the pure increase in the income membranes in the market and what is -- what more have we been paying as a country because of that? >> we look to policies. >> it should be easy for additional manufacturers to come in while the drugs are being priced above the cost of manufacturing the bulk of small molecule generics. fda is looking into it with respect to the user fees
5:24 pm
charged are bring the generic drug to market, the manufacturing another requirement, better manufacturing regulation. encouraging more competition i would emphasize this is a different sort of problem than the challenge of how to address the cause and provide access for some of the new specialty very effective targeting cures coming along. >> give us a quick chance due to this phenomenon? >> the pbm's were in better positions than we are. everything i would mention to your point about generics is the triple mentioned later, the backlog at the
5:25 pm
fda is higher than it has ever been on generic drugs coming to the marketplace. higher than it has ever been, longer than it has ever been. we have not taken a big whack at that. >> and we know the cost of production on these drugs are fraction of the sent. >> let's go to the next question. >> good morning, center for policy innovation. a slide that shows that there are 200 billion or more and avoidable prescription drug costs associated with nonadherence, less than optimal prescribing. what i did not see was the potential for prevention benefits in the context of hiv early treatment. i am wondering if those are at all factored into when you determine what can be in
5:26 pm
terms of avoidable costs. >> they were in those numbers. but not oncology and not audio immune and some of the other specialty drugs, but it is a big issue in terms of noncompliance and if we're serious aboutwe are serious about it it's a giveaway to save a lot of money. >> am afraid he will just have time for one more question. >> from our report, value -based solutions, but the us does not have a fair arbiter command i wanti want to know how we could overcome the barriers for an organization as part aa of the question and part b is value requires we have the actual cost.
5:27 pm
>> an advisory role. >> a topic that will come back later today. the non-rebatenon- rebate prices and the actual prices and that difference increasing of it over time. oneone of the things that the movement toward more value -based payment would accomplish is building that in and developing more data on it. many europeanmany european countries or european countries generally use a government arbiter. i does not mean it is the only way to do it. try to better characterize value and most of the data i can really inform the so-called real world evidence is held by health plans the provider groups.
5:28 pm
so between steps to use that more effectively, part of the learning healthcare system and may be featured in our drug payment that account for coverage with evidence development. i mentioned an example of pbm. >> if we are having this meeting ten years from now that's a good point.
5:29 pm
how these products work in the real world which would lead to a value-based system, and i would characterize it that in the next ten years if you can demonstrate outcomes you will have no income or the other way to look at it, outcomes equals income. >> how quickly and effectively can we get to there from where we are now in terms of capturing the evidence and using it effectively. >> the question we will be discussing. thanks to both of you, not only given us a wonderful 30,000-foot look at this that you have zero down to the ground level and given a specific examples of the kind of drugs we will be seeing coming out of the marketplace so we are going to take a quick break now reconvening for the 1st panel discussion at 10:30 a.m. if you need to avail yourself of the restroom you know where to find your escort. please join me in thanking mark for a terrific
5:30 pm
discussion. [inaudible conversations] >> take your seats now and we will get started. as we said earlier,earlier, we will focus on addressing patient access and affordability of prescription drugs. our discussion will highlight the challenges that patients face accessing biopharmaceuticals. discuss the type of plan coverage that they have for
5:31 pm
those of you joining us via the webcast all of today's faculty biographies are available on the conference website. let me introduce you to our terrific panel. consumer advocate and patient who is going to share her personal experience in the realm of healthcare and pharmaceuticals. next to her, ceo of the national health council and patient organization, associate dir. for public opinion that serve our research of the kaiser family foundation. drug editor from consumer union and right at the end i should say is deborah whitman chief policy officer from aarp. we have asked each of these folks to tell us a little bit of their perspective from their organization. and heather's case from her experience as a patient and
5:32 pm
highlight the top challenge and opportunity both for individuals that patients andof patients and policy as we work our way through these issues. we will begin with you. tell us your story and give us aa sense of how you see the opportunities and challenges. >> i have not been in this building in decades. it is the same. i am representing myself. which is easier on the one hand and harder on the other. everyone's cancer story is unique and huge to them, but pretty boring and perhaps frightening to everyone else. suffice to say i had a false negative mammogram, no family history, was in my 40s and living in afghanistan.
5:33 pm
fortunately, i was on cobra for previous employer. i now have stage four breast cancer. i think there is enough medical know-how in this audience that i do not need to explain further what that prognosis means. the key is, i live on disability is less dip into good news bad news that i am outliving my prognosis. i still face financial insecurity and eventually bankruptcy. my top issues for this form are as follows? number one, transparency. the joy i am oni am on now has varied in price from 479800 per month for the same drug at the same dosage i have $270,000 in medical bills just in the last three years from one drug.
5:34 pm
i have no idea what the actual cost is. number two, the under 6565 disabled population is under a patchwork of state regulation and legislation. i had to work with my state legislature and pass my own bill to get supplemental coverage. i could not afford to pay the 20 percent co-pay, yet insurers have the right to turn me down, refuse me, or offer me ridiculously expensive premiums. that is for 20 percent coverage. the bill passed, and that is no longer the case yet each state is different. my 3rd issue is now there is no out-of-pocket maximum.
5:35 pm
it is expected that the day comes i will be paying that 20 percent co-pay which today would be between 1,002,000 per month just for the one drug. the aca regulated the out-of-pocket maximum, so this remains a problem just for medicare recipients. number four, ii am glad to see there are lots of drugs in the pipeline, drugs are increasingly stacked so that i knowi know i can only expect my cost will escalate in the future. lastly, skate in the game. game. i have grown to despise this term. congress has chosen to do away with the most comprehensive medigap -- medigap plan as they feel it may encourage a necessary tests, treatments, and so on i always say, is part of my
5:36 pm
liver enough, most of my savings enough, and my -- why must i worry about financial insolvency? i am a middle-class american that happened the cancer. i could be any of you. thank you. >> thank you very much, heather. >> thank you, susan. i want to commend heather for her advocacy, work. it is what it is all about when you are a patient advocacy from us a tremendous work. i also wish to thank the secretary for convening this meeting with all the stakeholders. our organization is controlled in terms of its governance by the ceos.
5:37 pm
we work to achieve solutions to very complex solutions i want to talk about three specific issues. they hate the fact that there industries that make money off the development of treatment and providing care to them. but they also understand that it drives innovation for the development of a treatment and for better care.
5:38 pm
the town has begin to focus in on our plans are structured their going into insurance products that have taken what was one of the greatest benefits and the formal care act they turned into a weapon by frontloading costs. they find that they hit their maximum out-of-pocket costs in there 1st month or two. sometimes even before they get there 1st medication or are able to see the specialists.
5:39 pm
and people are getting really angry about that. looking at value from the perspective of people with chronic disease. we cannot simply address the cost of one item without looking at the entire healthcare ecosystem. medicines are usually important part for all people in the system, but we must look at the entire ecosystem and collectively decide what it's like and how we are going to promote value and we certainly cannot define value without the patient perspective. and that leads me to my 3rd
5:40 pm
and final. we continually conflict consumers and patients and i'm here to say that while we are part of the same stakeholder community we are on opposite ends of the spectrum. consumers go into the healthcare system and use it as needed. they go home to their families as if nothing happened. when you are diagnosed for a disease for which serves no treatment or one that is deadly or of a child or whether an die before there 18th birthday you have an entirely different perspective. we must include that perspective with all of the other perspectives when we work through complicated issues. thank you. >> thank you. thank you for having.
5:41 pm
recent polling students were questions that we asked back in april. you should be a priority moving forward and will we foully asked that question, ten different topics, more than ten different topics covering a range of issues. what we found was that making sure high cost drivers were available the other thing that ranks 2nd was government action to lower prescription drug
5:42 pm
prices. again, these two items came above a number of other health policy issues related to the aca and issues related to consumer protections like network protections or increase transparency and health plans and that sort of thing and we just re- asked this question and found similar results. most of the stems from drugs coming to the top of the public priority in terms of healthcare, and we followed up with our normal kaiser monthly tracking poll to see how public views the issues. what we found is that roughly three quarters of the public think drug costs are reasonable but at the same time most say they are having an easy time importing them.
5:43 pm
many have insurance that helps protect them from the cost but still recorder taking drugs say they have a difficult time which is more of a problem for people with lower incomes or are in poor health or those taking multiple drugs. so one of the reasons of such a large share of the public can view the cost as unreasonable but then report that it is not personally an issue is because the issue resonates very well with the public, one of the key ways that the public interacts with the healthcare system. nearlynearly everyone can say they have taken a prescription drug in their lifetime. the sheer number of transactions that people have with their pharmacies or care providers about drugs is much larger than when they are going to an
5:44 pm
office visit or those sorts of things, and they see the cost of the drug on their bottle often times. you can often see the cost of the drug even if you're not paying that much. one other thing i wanti want to put out there is would think about access to high constructs it is important to keep in mind that these drugs impact a relatively small share of the public. the public doesn't have the best view, but we do find that most really do like the products.
5:45 pm
>> thank you. >> am excited to be here today. that entire contact lot will be about what consumers experience when they are at the pharmacy counter specifically. what people have experienced in the last year. and i want to share a few points about that because it is germane to the topic. we asked a nationally representative survey of americans what they were experiencing in the last 12 months and they told us 30% of people told us one out of
5:46 pm
every three people who regularly take a prescription drug they had seen the cost spike unexpectedly. what was interesting was the average price was $39. that can be pretty substantial. one out of every ten people told us that prices spiked by $100 or more which is just outrageous. that is part of what i wanted to talk about. we are going to talk about high-priced medication. every day more mundane drugs that they take because polls have shown year after year people do dangerous things.
5:47 pm
they might split pills. but consumer's oldest sometimes i skipped doctor visits, procedures or tests and all of these things lead to worse health outcomes. medication compliance becomes a key component. with that in mind i want to say that i am an editor of a program called best buy drugs and willwhat we have done is poor through comparative effectiveness research. some of you may not be a health professional, but studies are done looking at how safe and effective they are. instead of just being compared against the placebo.
5:48 pm
high-value medication, drugs that were safe, effective, and relatively affordable. and i -- part of this effort has been to understand the affordability issue. once we hit on the high-value medication we want to understand the best way to shop and save for it. i will quickly share three tips because they are important about illustrating what is wrong with the marketplace. these are workaround solutions that will make some of a shift in our chairs, but it is important to hear. using your insurance may not actually be the best deal. shows up on almost every single discount drug west, usually both chain box stores and big drugstores.
5:49 pm
you can get a prescription for about $10 for three month supply which is fantastic. a lot of people don't realize that. for people who find that they may have to pay the entire cost of medication out of the pocket and there are a lot of reasons that could happen. formularies have changed, insurance is either not covering the drug at a high enough rate, the drug has been dropped from a high deductible insurance plans, experienced what it feels like an overnight spike in price because the manufacturer has taken advantage of a loophole that they found, and drugs have gone through the roof. if a consumer finds the situation is happening to them you won't believe the 2nd tip, but we tell people you might want to try negotiating with your pharmacist because you can negotiate for the price of drugs if you're paying for them out-of-pocket. one great example, secret
5:50 pm
shoppers told hundreds of pharmacies around the country. one particular pharmacy, a supermarket in des moines iowa called and asked your price for generic. the 1stthe 1st toles of a $75 and that i secret shopper said, i'm not going to use my insurance. can you give me a better price and the pharmacist came back and said how about $21. pretty good. the 3rd point is, if you find yourself in this situation, shop around. drug prices for the same drug, same strength, even within the same zip code can vary dramatically. another good example of that , generics cymbalta and
5:51 pm
started calling around and some of the larger chains give us a price of $220.490 and they will tell you that no one pays these prices which is sometimes true. then we called a couple of independent pharmacies and got a good price and then we called costco. costco offered it for $43 which is phenomenal. we were happy to see that for consumers. there are couple of marketplace gaps that we see. wesee. we agree on a lot of these issues. quite interesting. out-of-pocket maximum would go a long way toward bringing more stability to the marketplace in addition to formularies that are more stable instead of being changed every 30 to 90 days. and more transparency. how much medications, how well they work command safe they are command how much they
5:52 pm
cost. >> thank you so much. >> thank you.you. and thank you to secretary burwell and hhs for holding this important meeting. i am here on behalf of 37 million aarp members who break out into aa cold sweat every time they go to the counter to pay. many of you are going up and up and up for particularly specialty drugs coming to market that you heard about, costs are exorbitant. we released a report that shows the average price in 2013 was over $53,000, $53,000 for the average price of the specialty drug. the median income in the us for household is over
5:53 pm
$52,000. if we look at our members, social security, medicare beneficiaries, look at median income and it's only 23, twice the cost of annual income for the average specialty drug. just the social security drug, that is three and a half times. now, that is the lot. by any measure. more importantly most of our beneficiaries and older members are not just taking one drug. two thirds are taking three or more. you multiply the cost of the drug by the number of prescriptions they have to fill in prices can be exorbitant. some would say that consumers don't pay the full price, but they do in one
5:54 pm
way or another, all consumers are paying for these drugs.drugs. importantly, as you heard from heather, the skin in the game of copayment sometimes can break your budget. even if we look at the new psc canines coming on the market in about 15,000 per year, again, roughly equal to the average social security check and calculate how much people will have to pay out-of-pocket it can be about $3,000 per year and that is from one drug they have to take every year. importantly even if you personally are not taking on , you will be paying for higher premiums and other ways that it affects the system. we know that in just 2016
5:55 pm
the average prices for part d plans are up 13 percent. and a recent estimate said that they will make everyone's premiums go up by over $144. that$124. that is a lot of money that we will be paying for one drug. now, it is not simply consumer complaining about the cost of a half. we heardwe heard a lot about people not taking the drugs that needed it, and a recent study found 35 percent of voters have not fill the prescription because they could not afford to. and while today the conversation is on medical and patient and we fully support new treatments for chronic conditions, major conditions, medical innovation is meaningless if no one can afford it. importantly also we will talk a little bit about access and ways to control cost and i want to raise
5:56 pm
that is an issue. many insurance companies, medicaid programs are creating high bars for people to get the treatment that they need. some medicaid programs must have a liver biopsy in order to qualify to get some of. andand others there are other barriers. we need to think not only about access and affordability together. finally, there are ways to address cost. other countries are doing it far better than we are. if weif we look at the cost of drugs in the united states, many times they are ten times, 100 times accosted other people pay. cymbalta itself costs 84,000 in the us, about 60,000 in the united kingdom and $900 in egypt.
5:57 pm
the united states taxpayer and consumer should not be the full cost of innovation and use the tools that we have and that additional tools in order to make sure drugs are affordable and that all patients have access to needed care. [applause] >> thank you very much. thanks to all of you. so, what we have heard really is affordability is issue number one for america's consumers and patients. we heard from beyond go that it is number one number two on the kaiser tracking poll. we have heard that pricing is a particular issue, the opaqueness around pricing. you mentioned having a single drug you are taking very by a price that is twofold difference and just not understanding where that
5:58 pm
variation comes from. we had about price spikes that increasingly patients are encountering and go to get drugs that they have been on for quite some time and see rather large cost increases or receive the premiums in part d plans shooting up 13 percent of as a consequence. we heard about this difficulty with various plan design whether it is medicare, the catastrophic cost or even what is left of the doughnut whole before you get to the catastrophic cost representing a real burden, particularly on disabled americans who are qualified for medicare as is true in your case. we heard from you that some of the affordable care act plans, qualified health plans are frontloading drug costs by virtue of the high deductible, people being protected at a maximum
5:59 pm
out-of-pocket level and we know a lot of the plans not only have high deductibles but separate deductibles on the medical side as well as the drug side that is hitting a lot of people. and are consequences to these things that are not always in the best interest of the health of consumers, whether it is as you said, not filling prescriptions, skipping medications, giving other forms of care etc., yet you mentioned that there are tips, and you offer a few for consumers so that they could avoid taking draconian steps the way of shopping around. ..
6:00 pm
>> and how that hurts people from place to place. it's, obviously, not really going to be workable to attack these issues on the state-by-state level, but what would be a policy perspective as a patient who sees the issues, the inevitability that consumers are going to have some skin this in the game, but we want to minimize the skin in the game beyond, as you said, your liver? >> what i see is it's time for
6:01 pm
some national regulation or legislation even. we need to instead of, instead of -- which would raise an issue from what i understand when aca was being discussed and developed, but it never happened. it was just too difficult an issue. talk about getting in the weeds. so they left that to the states to execute. each state executes it differently. i don't think there's any two states that are alike. i ended up writing a bill that i copied from several states which, by the way, i got my information from kaiser -- [laughter] originally, so that i could start calling health insurers in different states to find out. but i can't expect that every person that's under 65 and disabled is going to have, is going to feel good enough, number one, and secondly, have the wherewithal to figure out how to draft a bill and get -- >> maybe you could develop an app. >> right. [laughter] yeah. the other issue is, of course, that's all changing.
6:02 pm
the law i helped draft gave a six month window so that when you became medicare-eligible, you could not be medically underwritten. they could not ask you about your disease. well, what happens when they quit selling certain medigap plans, i don't know what happens to people like me because we're not thought of, and i still -- well, i know i'm really in the weeds here, folks, so bear with me. i'm buying boo a plan that's -- into a plan that's going away, they're not going to be selling it anymore. obviously, that's fewer and fewer people in that plan, my premiums are going to skyrocket. so there will come a time when i can no longer afford to buy that, and i'm back to paying just 20% of my drug costs which as of right now they're about $9800 a month. so you begin to see it's not sustainable. none of it is. so until we start to look at some national framework and include those of us that are under 65 disabled, i believe
6:03 pm
it's going to, you're going to just continue seeing a steady rise of bankruptcy from people like me. >> lisa and deb, i want to ask you all about tips for consumers around shopping around for health plans that will cover their drugs many a way that minimizes the pain, the out-of-pocket pain that aarp has been working for many years to assist consumers in choosing among part d plans which, obviously, is going to be mess for consumers to do now -- necessary for consumers to do now more than ever. and, lisa, presumably you all are offering advice on that as well for people not just in part d, but in health plans generally. so, deb, let's start with you. >> well, 'tis the season. i actually every thanksgiving sit down with my father-in-law, get out his prescriptions and type in to see what the best plan is, because plan costs change year to year, and you may
6:04 pm
have been in the cheapest plan last year, and so going back and searching what are the trucks that you're take -- the drugs you're taking right now, the pharmacy you're using, is really, really important for consumers. checking between different pharmacies is also really important. talking to your doctor about the number of drugs that you're on as well to make sure, again, many people have multiple doctors, multiple prescriptions. there are benefits within part d to make sure that you are on the right set of medications. there are things that consumers can do to a degree. again, what i was trying to address is some of the larger structural costs of the underlying drugs. shoppers can shop so much, but if somebody is taking a very expensive cancer drug that is the treatment for their condition or it is not a part d drug, it's a part b drug administered where they really have no negotiating power, all of that falls away.
6:05 pm
>> you know, i would add to that one of the biggest mistakes that consumers can make during this season is not taking any action. and, unfortunately, a large portion of people assume that the plan will remain the same -- and this is particularly for, i feel like, employer plans where you get into a rhythm, you sign up every year, you resign, and you don't really look at the changing formularies or even plan in general. so the first, i really would underscore that consumers always this time of year, double check your plans, double check that they cover the things that you need them to cover. and the other thing in so doing is to be very mindful of high deductible plans. a love of employer -- a lot of employers move to these plans. they can be good in certain circumstances, but for people that have a chronic condition or a planned surgery coming up or maybe they're going to start a family, these plans may not be
6:06 pm
the best for their needs if at all possible. it really does, unfortunately, turn you into -- it's a health care consumer, you know? the shopping and the comparing is pretty critical. >> lisa, to stay on you for a moment, as we heard from the earlier panel, a value-based insurance design might be one way we can address affordability for consumers. as we heard, there are some plans now that have moved in that direction and eliminated co-pays for very valuable drugs. for example be, diabetes medications if you have to take them on a regular basis, cholesterol medications, etc. there isn't a lot of that out there in the market today. what is your assessment, and what -- how could that market be stimulated, and how can can consumers help to stimulate that market? >> [inaudible] >> well, you know, the first thing would be, i mean, really coming from the consumer standpoint not having a co-pay is fantastic. and it removes this barrier and the potential surprise of standing at the pharmacy counter
6:07 pm
being hit with a very high drug bill you did not expect for something you take all the time. i think consumers, as we have gone through many more consumers signing up for affordable health care act plans, many more people are covered, and many more people are coming into pharmacy space. consumers begin to be educated about -- and i say, like, educated in quotes -- they have experience, some of these strange issues of not having, you know, the kind of coverage they were hoping and not being as covered as well as they had intended. i don't know if i'm going to be able to answer your question directly. what i can hope is that consumer sort of outrage and consumer frustrations -- and i think that's participant of what some of us are here to represent -- may be able to purr better plan -- spur better plan designs focused on compliance and high value instead of just chasing bottom lines. >> i want to go to you and your point that in the kaiser tracking polls people expressed
6:08 pm
a desire to see more government regulation of drug prices. did you drill down any further than that? do people really understand what they would like the government to do? do they have particular policies in mind, or do they just -- is this just an impulse we want somebody to do something? >> i think more of the latter at least at this point in the debate. so we have asked sort of more specifically about some different approaches that policymakers may take to lower the price of prescription drugs, and in general the public is largely supportive of these different approaches. and so some of the things we asked about were drug companies releasing information on how they set their prices, allowing medicare to directly negotiate for drug pricing, limiting the amount that drug companies can charge for high-cost drugs, importing drugs from canada. and then also we asked about reference pricing, so encouraging people to buy lower cost drugs by requiring them to pay more if they are choosing a
6:09 pm
higher cost drug. so in general, you know, eight in ten, seven in ten of the public is supportive of these options. the one that got a little less support but still half say they're supportive of it is the reference pricing option. so at this point, you know, it's still relatively early as this discussion is happening, at least in this go round of the discussion. so, you know, it's possible that there will be more differentiation in terms of what the public would prefer policymakers do as the, you know, proposals are honed, as opponents come out with their objections to whatever the proposals might be, you know, and just as the messages are developed or policies are developed, the public might, you know, end up coalescing a little bit more around one option or the other. but right now we see sort of broad support for kind of help me, you know, help this issue. >> mark, what about the membership of the national
6:10 pm
health council, your patient advocacy organizations? where do they rate these various alternatives, or are they really at a consensus at this point on what might be done? >> well, there are two issues that we're conflating here, so let me address that question. i also want to go back to your point about us all agreeing on the cost of drugs being the primary issue, because that's not the number one issue in the patient community. with respect to people with chronic conditions, what they'll tell you is they don't like the fact that they're paying so much out-of-pocket to get their drugs, but to also see their doctors, to see their specials, to access their care. and i think what you're hearing from us, there's a lot of agreement that plan design is not working. especially for people with high cost treatments. now, i also want to recognize that we've created a set of incentives that compel plans to compete on trying to keep high
6:11 pm
cost individuals occupant of their plans. out of their plans. we have not made the rules of the road granular enough so that plans can compete on value. and i think that's part of what needs to be looked at here. and there's a lot of opportunity. if you look at what happened in the co-ops in the affordable care act, a lot of them are going out of business, and it's because they tried to provide really good benefits, but the risk adjustment did not work. there's opportunities to realign policies so that access can be made affordable, and we can have plans compete on value. that's a critically important issue. now, when we speak with patients, they'll often tell you that the cost is number one, and they don't like the price of drugs. very few of them actually understand what the price of the drug was that went to the plan where they got it. they don't have that information. what they really mean is i want access to that drug. those are two very different elements. the other point i wanted to make
6:12 pm
and, again, going back to your earlier comment, for those people who have treatments, access is a huge issue in the marketplace and in most insurance products now. especially if you are of a lower socioeconomic status. and increasingly, even if you're just middle income. but you have to recognize -- and i'm going to channel one of my board members, margaret, who's the head of faster cures who said at a 21st century round table we have between 7-9,000 diseases. only 500 have effective treatments. the vast majority of people with chronic conditions, they want a treatment, or they want the treatment that they have to get better. that's their number one priority. and for a lot of them, they would love to have an expensive option. we're now at the point where science is moving to a place where we're developing treatments that we've never seen before. it was pointed out before, we have the first specialty product
6:13 pm
that's a cure. there's huge opportunities, and for people with caron cantic conditions, that is a -- chronic conditions, that is a priority. how we make them affordable is also a priority. but we have to look at the entire health care ecosystem and figure out as a society are we going to pay for new innovation? and how are we going to make that accessible to all, not just the wealthy? >> well, and that takes us right back to you, heather, because as you said quite powerfully, you hope that there are new drugs coming out that will continue your survival to enable your survival. and as we heard from doug long earlier, the vast majority of cancer treatments going forward are going to be these targeted therapies, they're going to have high price tags attached to them almost assuredly. how do we balance this, this desire that we all share for innovative, value-driven drugs that will extend lives but also
6:14 pm
have them be affordable? >> you're asking me that. [laughter] >> yes. you're here. >> right. first of all be, i'm not on the targeted therapy. i wish i was. i look forward to, hopefully, being around to be on one one day. but i do understand the balance that's needed, and i look at it as i'm not sure that every drug has -- that we have to have access to every single drug just from a patient perspective. i'm not sure that we need to have access to every single drug out there which is what americans seem to wallet. we want the drug that will keep us alive two more weeks. i'm okay with not having that personally, that's my personal opinion. i want to see that the field moves forward and that if we're balancing affordability with access, that we have to have some give on the access side. so i'm willing to give that up in order to make treatment more affordable. that's from my personal perspective. >> do you think most patient
6:15 pm
groups are there on that point? >> and so this is the first time i've met heather, and i'm really enjoying listening to you speak. for the patient perspective, one of the issues we're looking at is exactly that. the present beers earlier today said there's $220 billion in low value or no value service, and in some cases services that actually increase costs by creating other complications. for people with chronic conditions, we often say they want access to everything. well, the reality is they don't want access to everything. what they want is access to what works for them. and that requires us to move away from just treating people as the average, because nobody is the average. most people have multiple chronic conditions. we have to look at how we drive treatments for that 20 that drives 70 president of -- 70% of the cost or that 5% that drives 40-50% of the cost and build a system that is different.
6:16 pm
we need to be able to look at those people and say we're going to spend the time with you to understand what is going on in your personal life. what are your goals and aspirations. and then we look at the clinical options that are available, and we help them match the right options for the right person. and that often means less care, less invasive care, and there's great research that shows that you reduce costs, and you improve outcomes. and, in fact, when you look at individuals, take two individuals with parkinson's, they're at the same stage of disease progression, they're both working. one person wants to insure that nobody knows they have parkinson's. the other person wants to eliminate the tremors that are keeping him awake and impacting his life with his spouse. those are two entirely different options. and it requires two different treatments. and yet our current system will give you the average. and you may not get the one that's right for you. when you align the treatment
6:17 pm
with the personal circumstances and the goals of the individual, you'll often see less care, and it's often better care. and we have an opportunity to save money. so looking at how we get at value in the system and how we align incentives to drive value. and i'm all for incentivizing plans to do this, and i'm all for incentivizing vital pharmaceutical companies to develop high value treatments. we have to look at how we balance that. cmmi is doing this great project in chicago where they're actually paying doctors to spend 90 or 120 minutes with high-touch patients that are high cost and actually align their care and coordinate it and eliminate the unnecessary waste. and what they're finding is they're reducing costs, and they're getting much better outcomes. now, we don't all need that, but
6:18 pm
for that 5 or 20% of the population driving the costs, we do. and that creates room behind innovation that is going to have some cost. i think we have to recognize there's going to be some cost. we have to make it affordable, and we have to make sure it happens, because there are tense of millions of people in -- tens of millions of people in this country that are dying as a result of their diseases, and they want new and better treatments. >> i want to come back to the question of what patients, consumers, aarp members, etc., think should be done about all of this. and, debbie, you mentioned a couple of approaches, and, of course, on the first panel we heard about a number more. we heard, for example, about the role of competition, very drugs approved as rapidly as possible so there are competitive drugs in a particular class that will help to drive the price down. and, of course, we've seen that phenomenon play out in the hepatitis c drugs over the past
6:19 pm
year and a half. we heard about the whole approach of value-based payments evolving, and we'll have a whole panel discussion on that later this afternoon. deb, you mentioned some more regulatory approaches that other countries undertake, particularly around reference pricing. give us a further sense. if you ask the aarp membership, they're not all policy experts, but we take that as a stipulation. but what do people think is a meaningful set of approaches here? >> i think you heard from the kaiser study it's kind of throw the book at this problem. they are frustrated that they don't have the capacity as individuals to negotiate. so i think secretary burwell is a really smart cookie. she's got a great team behind her, and behind them is all of the medicare beneficiaries, all the medicaid beneficiaries, schip, and that should be be a powerful way to negotiate. but she's forbidden to do so.
6:20 pm
>> so overcoming the provisions -- >> overcoming the provision is one way. i think we need transparency on how prices are even developed. people deserve the right to know how a drug is costed, how much was paid by taxpayers in the form of research to develop that drug. right now prices are just set arbitrarily with no information. consumers don't have all the information they need each on comparative effectiveness -- even on comparative effectiveness. so we should make that transparent so you can see the value of use of one drug over another drug and understand those trade offs for yourself. i also think there's a whole list that mark had put out earlier today of different policy recommendations. all of these things together can play a really important role, but right now we're doing very few of them in this country, and we're paying the price.
6:21 pm
>> all right. we do want to, once again, open this up to questions from those of you in the audience. we'll try to get to a few more than we were able to get to last time. so, again, if you would introduce yourself by name and affiliation, and make your question succinct, that would be terrific. >> carl -- [inaudible] we advocate for people living with hiv and hepatitis. and really appreciate this panel's focus on the patient. and i'd like to focus on the plan be design and what -- plan design. and what we've been seeing for the same drug, some insurance companies are charging patients maybe $15, $50, $100 co-pays, but for the same drug other insurance companies are paying -- are asking patients to pay 50% coinsurance which could, you know, we talked about some of these drugs could be expensive, could be a lot of money. we're also seeing this in medicare as well as what you talked about. so i'm looking, i guess, for the
6:22 pm
advice of people who represent patients on panel. what can we do? i know some states are putting co-pay max for patients. we also, it would be great if hhs would enforce the nondiscrimination provisions of the affordable care act to take some actions against these plans. thank you. >> we talked a little bit about that. lisa, do you want to expand on what might be done there to continue to educate people about the need to shop around? >> you know, the plan design that you described is, has been a key concern of my colleagues at consumer ors union -- consumers union. advocates of the consumers union side have been focused on this issue, particularly out-of-pocket limits as we mentioned earlier and also nondiscriminatory plan design and the enforcement around that hhs needs to do. the only thing i can really say is supporting both of these
6:23 pm
issues. this is not fair, it's not surprising. i mean, many plans, you know, use different rebate mechanisms as a tool for their business formulas, and that's -- and i think that's part of the reason you see such, you know, each plan design may treat that drug differently based on their own goals. but i think both of those things are definitely what consumers union has been focused on. >> [inaudible] there is a lack of transparency not just around pricing, but around -- [inaudible] >> yeah. i mean, from a consumer standpoint, a consumer would not know or even understand or even most consumers aren't aware that a rebate structure exists that might -- and that's why you wind up with these strange anomalies like what you described. >> a lot of people don't understand the carrying of co-pays both on the private market or their part d plan which can make a huge difference in the amount they have to cost share and that the different drugs may be on different tiers. so it is very complex.
6:24 pm
and even with catastrophic caps, even in part d there's still a payment above those catastrophic caps for some of these specialty drugs. since the amount of protection that individual consumers have both in the private market and even in the medicare marketplace can vary greatly based on each drug. >> two quick thoughts, two quick thoughts. one, you're absolutely right, carl, it is fundamentally discriminating against people with chronic conditions, in particular those of low socioeconomic status. i think we have to recognize that. but i think we also have to recognize that the plans have been put in a place with rules that are not granular enough for them to compete on value. so we have to work with the plans to actually help them solve the problem that they are in in order to eliminate these issues. i completely support spreading out the costs of out-of-pocket costs across months, putting caps on out-of-pocket costs.
6:25 pm
but at the end of the day, it's going to create pressure to create other mechanisms that get at this. we've got to figure out a way to work with the plans to figure out how we can set the rules of the road so they can compete on value rather than on excluding high cost patients. >> just do want to quickly come back to, as carl said, particularly in the case of california we have this $200 cap now on drug co-payments. there is some concern that that will, that will take the pressure off doing anything about the fundamental pricing of drugs. it may, obviously, protect consumers, but it doesn't get at the larger pricing issuings. deb? >> i think, i think they're both key issues. that issue for the consumer, how much they can afford, but the underlying price of drugs, which is what i was trying to make extensive points on today are really an issue that we have to get. even if an individual's co-pay is capped, the cost of those drugs are shared throughout the
6:26 pm
whole system. so they may save on a co-pay, but they're going to see their part d premiums across the entire population increase over time. we have to get -- [inaudible] >> hi, my name is vincent, and i'm an oncologist at the mayo clinic. i represent the 118 oncologists who wrote an article protesting the high cost of cancer drugs. very often i feel like very discouraged, disillusioned and want to give up the fight because i am busy doing research except when i see patients like you, heather, and this is what makes me fight. and i think we really need to ask the question that, deborah, you said why do we need to reinvent the wheel? almost all western countries allow negotiation of prices around value. there are systems in place. we don't have to do that. the first thing we need is medicare has to be able to negotiate prices. [applause] >> thank you. >> i think that was an acutely
6:27 pm
important article that you and your co-authors did because you asked the fundamental question, what is the value of these individual drugs. and you also told the stories of what happens to your patients and their families who do everything to pay for those drugs. i think that's a conversation that we widely need to have as a way to get the issue of prices on the table and the issue of value. so i thank you and your co-authors for doing that. >> just to add what the public thinks about that issue again, i'll reiterate, you know, there is broad support for medicare negotiating drug pricing, and it is something that we've asked about over time, and there has been broad support for that for quite some time now. >> another question. >> dan durham from america's health insurance plans. an excellent discussion focused on price and access, very important. question for mark. mark, you had mentioned the out-of-pocket maximum in the affordable care act.
6:28 pm
very important consumer protection that didn't exist before 2014. and you mentioned also the problems with regard to coinsurance, particularly those for low socioeconomic status. but i think you left out the cost-sharing reduction subsidy which is also an important part of the statute. and, you know, we have an issue brief out that we have on our web site today that does the simple math. so if you're at 150% of poverty and receiving that cost-sharing reduction subsidy enrolled in a silver plan, when you look at a drug for hepatitis c which has a price tag of about $95,000, that person with low socioeconomic status is paying less than 1% for the cost of that drug. and the health plan is paying over 99%. so i have to ask you, what's the problem? cost sharing, or as deb says, the price? and if you truly believe that
6:29 pm
the cost-sharing reduction subsidies aren't sufficient, then isn't the appropriate policy the most efficient policy to increase those cost-sharing reduction subsidies? pause higher income people -- because higher income people can buy a platinum or gold plan which has a much lower out-of-pocket cost. ..
6:30 pm
's plans are acting completely rationally within the rules of the game. what i think we need to do is work with you to alleviate some the pressures that are on the plans so that they can provide affordable coverage that is not impacted by social economic status literally allows you to
6:31 pm
compete on value. i know a lot of plans want to do that. we had two chief medical officers from to the largest plants in the country nominate themselves to be on our board because they want to work with us on these issues and i want to work with you on these issues as well. >> let me just quickly ask dan's dan's proposal that the cost-sharing subsidies be increased in the affordable care act are given that the majority of americans still don't like the affordable care act and the kaiser pose -- kaiser poll show that in plenty of people want to kill the entire law, how would that kind of thing fly and what is your sense about how american consumers would respond to that at this point? >> you know public opinion on the law is pretty divided overall. obviously depending on whether you are a democrat or a republican but we do find that the public likes the different provisions of the law so when you really break it down and
6:32 pm
asking about subsidies about the medicaid expansion and preventive care, different provisions and the specific provisions of the law of the majority do like what is on the law. they don't like individual mandates. that's the one exception we find always when they ask that the public is divided overall. >> is seeming obvious to me. i heard the comment when she said mummy keep putting these we are not dealing with the issue. this is not a band-aid if we increase subsidies so should we get to what the verdict of the problem is before we just -- i feel like i've been part of that problem by creating band-aids. maybe we need to back up and say that's not going to help us figure out the cause. once know as consumer that i pay $9800 a month. how much of that is used because of the r&d to what to develop
6:33 pm
and innovate. it's been around for a while. they double the dosage and it got more effective but i want to understand how much does it cost. i tested cattering advocates and my causer off of your actual so if anyone from the audiences from sloan-kettering. the minimize paid is four times higher than the actual. >> what is the address? >> should i really say it? >> thank you dan for that question. [inaudible]
6:34 pm
[inaudible] [inaudible] >> we are having some microphone problems here with dan said is there is the considerable amount of transparency on the health plan site. this point was addressing more the transparency on the price side for a drug. allen. i will restate your question. [inaudible] [inaudible]
6:35 pm
>> all by co-pay and them prescription drugs and things like utilities and rent. [inaudible] [inaudible] [inaudible]
6:36 pm
[inaudible] we are talking about 10% of the holes bend and especially a smaller percentage of that so it's an important issue but my behalf of the patients we serve that are struggling with the myriad of -- and not just drugs and by the way there's a lot of support for patients with their drugs in the marketplace, what else is being done and looked at >> soap course the broader point is that we do waste a lot of money elsewhere in the health care system and we also impose costs on consumers because of that. if we were to gain some of that money back they could potentially afford to spend money on some of these very innovative treatments that are
6:37 pm
in the pipeline as we heard earlier. mark, how do your numbers approach that larger question? >> one of the points i tried to make in the beginning and allen i think you're absolutely correct you have to look at the entire health ecosystem. we think of the innovation ecosystem is severed ecosystem is severed and the delivery system and something else but the reality is from a patient perspective it's a key militant cost that ultimately prevents many people from getting care. one of the questions we talked about as a group is what is the impact on the family budget? for a lot of people of lower socioeconomic status there's no impact on the budget because they never filled out the first prescription and they never see that specialist. that is not acceptable. we have to look at the entire system and then we have to define what value is and then we have to go create the incentives to drive value. in many cases this would be a high-value products and it may
6:38 pm
be high-value surgical intervention. it may be high delivery designs were you really help those people with complex chronic conditions were falling through the cracks and not getting the services they need. if we simply look at each issue in isolation we are leaving a lot of the opportunity on the table. i go back to something said earlier all the estimates are there r2 hundred and $20 billion in waste. the vast majority of that is spent on that 30% of the population, the population we represent for chronic disease and disability by providing home care that is completely on the line with their personal circumstances and their goals and aspirations. there are huge opportunities to try waist down if we think about this. there are huge opportunities to drive high-value in dimension opportunities to drive costs down. we have to look at it as a package. >> all right, well each of you
6:39 pm
let's suppose for a moment has been named to a newly-created patient and family task force on biopharmaceuticals. you each get to make one important recommendation to the president, to policymakers, to the u.s. congress. you have a limited amount of time. let's collect wood or link recommendations. i want to start with you. what's the number one recommendation would make in that situation? >> why don't i address access to innovative treatment. >> specifically how? i will give you a second week. >> price transparency or value come, information for both consumers and payers. >> lisa. >> i would say more focus on
6:40 pm
perth comparative effectiveness studies. we have a very clear understanding of how well these medications work and they compare to other appropriate treatments and in that mixture that all the data is actually released so that we can see the mayor more clear picture what's going on. >> and the second week at the centered outcomes research institute, the research that helps plants that others are undertaking. >> it's got to be other evidence-based practice centers and there has to be a large well funded network dedicated to these issues and very clear neck medications when they make sure everything comes out. >> bianca. >> is the whole public at the public really does see this as a priority in particular making sure that they need high cost drugs are available to those people.
6:41 pm
even if they personally aren't using it themselves and i would reiterate a point made earlier that drugs are one piece of that health care costs puzzle. some are things or deductibles. >> not just on the drug side. mark. >> drive innovation, balance appropriate access aligned with patient goals and preferences and personal circumstances and i would emphasize a point that i don't think that has been stressed, we have to fund our biomedical research enterprise at nih. irregular choice science at fda are comparative effectiveness research, patient-centered outcomes research. we are at a point in time where we are driving patients into consumers. they are now looking at the
6:42 pm
world and it's very different way. technology is disrupting it. we need the information so people can make important decisions and take the treatments that are correct for them. that is a very different environment. >> i think something that is one of the palace said earlier resonates with me. innovation is meaningless if no one can afford it. i represent middle class i'm not representing low-income recipients that i represent any of you that have worked in the government. i have not stated federal employees. it's a struggle. it's really a struggle to pay for these treatments and to stay on top of everything that's happening. mottaki medical invasion. i found out that my treatment would only be covered, no co-pay if i went through private
6:43 pm
oncology office and not a cancer center well into my treatment and they weren't any in my state, none, zero so that mic co-pay jumped to three to that month. those are the kinds of things you are constantly trying to stay in front of when you are patient. again that could be any view. >> that concludes our morning session. we were going to take a one hour break for lunch. as a reminder you are not permitted to move around the building on your own. if you want to purchase lunch in a cafeteria on the top floor please go to the registration table and find an escort. as you know there are a number of express lunch options located by the federal centers southwest metro station which is outside into the left. we are going to resume promptly at 12:45. join me first of all and thinking the whole panel on pushing heather all the best. thank you, thank you.
6:44 pm
[applause] [inaudible conversations] ♪ >> when i was being interrogated , to start with when i got into prison i thought i'm gone in 10 days.
6:45 pm
so i decided to write a book and every time i was saying something stupid or he was make in your presumption about my life are about life in the west i was thinking that would end up in the book. i was just trying do you know ask them questions and that's basically, he didn't have any other human contact himself because he had spent all this time in an interrogation role. he was tired of talking to other revolutionary guards but sometimes he was confiding in may. he was telling me about his personal life. i could hear his conversations with his wife. sometimes when he was breathing me he was -- i remember one day he was holding my head in his
6:46 pm
lap and twisting my hair. he kept on twisting my hair. i said would you let go of my air while you were talking? then he hit my head and said i'm on the phone, be quiet. mr. maziar bahani is joined by tim greenberg for the discussion hosted by the harvard university institute of politics. tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern. french president françois hollande met with president obama but the recent terror attacks in paris and strategy for combating isis. the two just finished up a joint news conference. you can see that tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern on c-span.
6:47 pm
6:48 pm
her personas from ankara spotify and independent film and television alliance discuss how technology impacts the creative industry and entertainment businesses. this panel is from the technology policy institute and evil aspen form. >> we will get started with the last panel of the conference. technology has affected almost every aspect of the entertainment industry and reduce cost for content and introduce new distribution channels as we heard about last night. while much of the discussion is
6:49 pm
focused on extent to which new distribution methods like streaming displays traditional method this discussion is focused on how range of technologies might affect the balance of power and creative industries. for example netflix is using detailed preferences about his prescribers to develop its own content. that might not up succeed on other platforms. artists have the ability to pull work from particular platforms and to discuss these and other issues we have a good panel that i'm going to introduce them very quickly. we have michael herring he was cfo at pandora laurie barton who is this seen now at cable media company, john prewitt mark silverstein who is head of product technology at spotify and mike smith he was an adjunct senior fellow at the technology policy institute but also a professor at carnegie mellon university and we will start
6:50 pm
with mike because he is just about to release a new book on these issues. it would like to hear your take to start us off. >> so i wanted to start by saying i asked scott if i could go first because i have been awkward and somewhat embarrassing confession to make and i think is the perfect ways to do it because we are all friends here and it's not like this is being recorded anything. the concession can be summed up in three words and that is i don't know and the reason that the awkward an academic is i'm trained to know. i'm trained to ask questions, go out and get data run statistical analogies and come back and say the answer is 17.3 plus or minus sign and we have been doing that with some great partners in the publishing industry and the music industry and the motion picture industry on things like
6:51 pm
how much consumer value is created when consumers can access all 3 million books in french as opposed to the 100,000 books in a typical bookstore. are they unbundling of music sales are can a you cite locking in the u.k. to change consumer behavior around piracy? and while my colleagues and i were asking these questions my main co-author started to ask a bigger question which is good technological change, change the market power in these industries? and first blush the answer to the question is almost certainly no from a historical perspective. if you look at the history of these industries for the last
6:52 pm
100 years they have been dominated by a set of three to six really powerful companies who have very strong economies of scale and have maintained their powers by the massive shifts in the technologies associated with creating, distributing and consuming content. on the surface the answer to this is almost certainly no technological -- technological change like the internet is not going to change market. some wonder whether the internet is really a technological change or is it a series of technological change is? where the presence of digital piracy we talk about in the past at our conferences is actually causing havoc with all the revenue models of these industries. is it possible that the stuff that kelly talked about last
6:53 pm
night where we are moving from a model where you have broadcast plots and scarcity associated with shelf space to where world where that is in scarce anymore. what is scarce is customer attention. andrea had a set of distributors who have their own sources of market power and economies of scale who are starting to rise up in global scale and starting to collect customer data and use that to manage and mediate customer attention. could that change be enough to change 100 years of structure in this industry? and like i said the correct answer is i don't know that the longer we visit this the more we start to wonder whether the
6:54 pm
answer could be yes, and whether there might be specific things that people in in the industry could do to respond to that as well. and with that given my answer is i don't know and the other thing is we were talking this morning and she said something that i thought was very insightful and kind. >> that so rare. >> definitely the kind part, very rare. >> she said maybe it's best at this point in the industry where we asked the right questions instead of having the right answers to those questions. >> do i have to read all 59,000 words of a upcoming book?
6:55 pm
>> part of the thesis is the way the data is changing. i guess we should say may be changing, the business model. so how is this began to change information analytics? we know that pandora has given artists and managers data to help them make decisions and recently pandora purchased the next big sound which describes itself as the leading provider of music analytics and inside. pandora started with the human genome project based on what kind of -- from the start. and how is this affecting the way you look at business? >> tandoor as most of you know is in personalized internet
6:56 pm
radio service and that's how we deliver music to 80 million listeners a month and also australia and new zealand that the vast majority in the u.s.. we have been doing this for 10 years. the launch of denver radio is next month. the music genome process which is an answer to how you categorize music and play music like other songs. but the reality is that true goal and the data is the 50 billion times in the last 10 years, 120 million americans relative to whether it fits in preferences. that data has tremendous richness and understanding a lot about that person about their musical preferences and we have combined that with demographic
6:57 pm
data. we now gauge gender and location. we know what devices they are using and how your musical preferences change during the day. if you have a john mayer station and you are a young mother it's an example of hall all the data points can be pulled together. largely its massive amounts of data we have been working on for years in order to create this amazing music service. we are talking about engagement and only talk about engagement with listeners understanding their preferences and playing the right music. that engagement has gone from 12 to 13 hours a couple of years ago per month to 18 hours per user last year to 22 hours per user. the 22 hours per user crosses 89
6:58 pm
people. so there's over 5 billion hours of music streamed. more music is streamed in video in united states. that is interesting from the brady of music perspective. that data, we are starting to tap into that potential is. the target advertising effectively. $1.2 billion in revenue advertising with a small fraction that the traditional radio has because we can use specifics for people that cater to them listening preferences based on demographics and edgy graphics. now we create this revenue theme that can rival very effectively. now we are taking that data and seeing how can we apply that to
6:59 pm
improve the overall music industry and add to existing revenue streams but also create new ones. we probably have a fiduciary responsibility. but also we also have a duty that we need to help the ecosystem, the copyright holders and artists and songwriters themselves and the distributors need to be successful in order for the industry to survive and thrive are you finding that balance some of the industries are stumbling through and we are starting with a breakthrough. using the data lately to drive ticket sales. we sold 10% of the tickets which was a massive success. it was touted all over billboards. we did that quietly within a matter of hours and days. we do live streaming promotions
7:00 pm
that have driven real alpine purchases. yes people buy albums to download. we have taken it from egg artist down to small to medium artists like adesso. many of you know who let us is that we identify them through fluctuations whether it's resonating well in the states. electronic disc music. it's a new genre focused on millennials. we sponsored a tour for them and it sold out in a matter of minutes. in new york city they sold out in 18 minutes so taking the data where we know when what we know people are listening to and what their preferences are. we have used it to monetize and now we are applying it to health. traditional aspects within the
7:01 pm
music industry but looking for new ways to do it. it's about mixing sounds that connect music listening data from our brightest services not just pandora antisocial data. what is being talked about in the various social media and how does that connect to listening and can you draw connections there to help and artists promote a new song, to help promote a new artist or to plan a tour or a concert event or a festival. that is what we are thinking about, applying data. >> he said you were -- for selling 10% of the rolling stone concerts. was that with ticketmaster without them quick. >> we didn't run the transactions. we promoted it directly and they leaked our ad on ticketmaster.
7:02 pm
>> it was still ticketmaster who has control over all ticket sales. >> one of the problems with things like ticketing is the profits that are shared back to promotional outlets like pandora because of the way the ticket works we are not focused on it as much as pandora's understanding how the data can move the needle and selling those tickets. they real problem with a concert isn't selling the first 10% or selling the last 20%. of the profits made in the last quarter of the ticket capacity. we drive to sell out. we tried the last mile and i think that is where will be interesting from a ticket perspective. >> mark, initially i said the same thing for spotify but also spotify has been moving to video. could you talk about that a little bit, why the decision to
7:03 pm
do that in a pretty crowded market? >> sure not to get into a nuanced approach to video but i will get there. a lot of the decisions we have made and how we have gone about what content we are providing when has to do with our user data so we have pandora as mike said and pandora does, we look at very deep data to be able to give them the best experience possible. if you look at spotify over at spotify over time we started as we had 25 million tracks and we have a search box. you have to know exactly what you want to listen to. they could be realized that that's a daunting task for a lot of people. he know a few artists you want to listen to but just having an open search box is not the best way to consume music. providing people genre hip-hop
7:04 pm
etc. that we are always testing different ways of experiencing music and they found very quickly when we put a genre such as focus next to our need or hip-hop or pop music we found more and more people are gravitating to a moment in time or an experienced so focused studying, running and we saw that activity occurring but the listing activity. many active users are streaming music 16 hours per day. there is a lot of consumption and these people are naming playlists. what we are fighting over time is that people were not creating the 90s hip-hop playlists. they were creating my running playlist in my cooking playlists. there are moments in time where we can deliver a great music
7:05 pm
experience to people and we said okay how can we do this? we can curate music really can have a music programming function but we can also, in certain parts of the day music is not the only thing you want to listen to so the morning commute is one hypothesis that we are testing right now. if you are on the subway or in your car maybe you don't only want music. maybe you want some news or weather report. you want to see if you're on the subway a clip of jimmy fallon or something like that. there are other contents that you want to experience during a period of time and that is the hypothesis we are testing right now to see if people are interested in experiencing that. at a a core where a music company and that is where innovations are happening. on the running we have seen millions and millions of running playlist. we said look we are a software
7:06 pm
company. why does that app always have to look the same for all cases so we did some research with olympic runners and we partnered with nike and we saw one people were like well about this all the way down here and that's not a good experience so we created a running experience is where we have forward, pack'n play. so that software can adjust that way. but we also did research about the runners perform better if the pete's match your feet? so if you are running at 180 feet per minute if the music matches that, do you run better and the answers quantitatively and qualitatively, yes. we found that runners really
7:07 pm
like that experience so we have created a portion of our app that will let you set the beats per minute. we only deliver you music based on your taste profile that has that beat in it. we took that is that further because of the higher beats per minute there aren't enough songs that people take profiles. what can we do so we worked with dj tso in some orchestras throughout the world where we have created tracks that the beats per minute will move up or down at the track will stay the same. so if you speed up or slow down or you want to run back for 20 minutes and then slow the same track will adjust the beats per minute but otherwise it will stay the same so we have created a completely new music format. whether this is wildly popular or not remains to be seen but these are the types of things
7:08 pm
that we start with our user data and we use these innovations as far as possible and running is our first up into that. that is a long-winded explanation on the videos which is all part of our music innovation. the last thing i would say is we are hyperfocused on users and providing artists with opportunities like what pandora's doing to monetize recorded music as well as other opportunities. we just worked with country star hunter hayes and he said to us help me wrap my tour in the united states. so what we did is a typical analysis on where he was over indexing with other artists that are similar with him and help him choose choice to see if he otherwise would not have picked and his biggest fans in those
7:09 pm
areas but those are the types of things that we want to use our data, not only to drive users but also continued to drive business for musicians and songwriters. >> mike's analysis and also i would say the increasing number of distribution channels or implication that there are so many more producers of content now seems to suggest that we should be seeing more independence than ever before. but as you said what is your sense of how one goes about producing content, especially video? >> i think it has to look at what i think now is becoming an increasingly bifurcated or try for gated marker place. the group that i'm most familiar with and that i have to
7:10 pm
represent are the professionals. product, cost at the low end 1 million or 2 million or at the upper end 2 million which has to be raised before the film is ever created. so we have one set of issues and are under pressure as the marketplace evolves because the new on line distribution services by and large are bringing nothing to the table in terms of investment in the creation. the other side obviously our people who are quite successfully using youtube or similar services to create what we call a calling card. it's usually supported on credit cards and your grandfather's pension fund and the challenge
7:11 pm
once you make it is how they get people to see it, to recognize your talent and begin to help you move into a more professional arena. i think there's no question what technology gives you today in terms of and production and what you can do with the internet and with youtube etc. makes it much easier to create that calling card. so you are seeing people come into the field and a much better way i think. the other thing that people haven't explored much is the extent to which technology is letting you create content which is just a different type of content, not just content we ever saw before. some of it involves youtube celebrities and involves people doing what used to be called standup comedy and creating a
7:12 pm
community where the audience simply didn't exist before. that's another fun, not in what we shared last night was -- i happen to know a little bit about this because i have a cousin in fayette arkansas as you post those videos on facebook. i know that that's a real thing and it's not just to people out there. it's an entire community and an entire audience that at some point they supported different type of content. if you move back with the professional group and the group with a very heavy production costs, i think from your standpoint of promise we attain that the internet hasn't proven out. what everyone assumed it as it develops in the same way as the
7:13 pm
marketplace than the dvd marketplace did. which is almost an unlimited appetite for content and the ability to put it out there through video stores. in fact where consumers would come into contact with products that they had ever seen before comment, it's saturday night and you don't know what that is. you are walking and you pick it up and there's a price attached to it. none of that has developed on the internet side. most of my members couldn't get the pictures onto the on line services. they're not able to get their services to come to the table in any way that guarantees a return. so on the one hand you have this huge behemoth of distributors and on the other hand the actual task of funding the product, marketing it is completely in
7:14 pm
the hands of the traditional service or because they are the only people who will actually become partners in content creation and frankly they are the only people who are bankable. i'm not sure how many people in the room no how it's normally funded. what you do is you go to the market and you talk to the distributors worldwide. you say this is what i've got and there used to be a poster. he said here is my poster and here is what the story is going to be about. here's my director saw how much will you give me against my royalty on all of the rights that can be exploited in your territory. you do have to have actual guarantees but ultimately you are doing pre-internet pics if
7:15 pm
you will. nobody comes to the table and nobody signs the contracts you are not going to make that hill. today you know which distributors, let's say in france you will hopefully send a contract you know france should be worth 15% of the budget but the distributor is looking marketplace thing, going to the pay myself back? i'm giving you $7.5 million on expendable facilities and how am i going to get it? i know i can make that money. that's been wiped out. in france on line isn't paying anything. i'm no longer 15% of your budget and i'm now 7%. so we go through these calculations ultimately and you get your contract any good the
7:16 pm
bank of the bank loans you money. their gap you have to fund through dentists, russian oligarchs. you laugh, but there's a joke around about -- oligarchs. there were subsidies at some point or another. in that process when you want it to come in either because it would take up the slack on dvd or they want to be part of the content creation process when we look at the pressures, the pressure is much more about a marketplace that consists almost completely of theatricals. it doesn't yet offer the promise that we want for content that could be toward video-on-demand or netflix release. >> you have been thinking about the original content from
7:17 pm
netflix and amazon. i think a more traditional actors and producers. >> muster sticking with traditional actors. when we get into balance of power we should talk about that. a lot of the content such as it is not long form. they are turning themselves into the studio and if you want to work there as an employee producer you might find a way to get on there. if you produce a film like some of the numb -- members have done twilight of the hungry games etc., by and large the on line platform are interested if at all in a theatrical marketing campaign. they feel the same way in construction costs. they are marketing their service but they are not marketing month
7:18 pm
of content. so are there opportunities there? yes so we believe this will evolve in a way where we meet somewhere in the middle. yes, we want to be able to reach the broader but the pressure is coming from the fact that the new ones are stepping in. talk about money. >> exactly. >> i think the best question for anybody is why should we care about this panel so i wanted to start by economically framing but we are talking about that. and the answer is in the u.s. only last year basically the content industry is -- $5 billion of revenue. television was by far the biggest piece at $150 billion last year in 2014 which about
7:19 pm
half, 75 billion was advertising on television and the other half was subscription fees to comcast satellite and telcos. and next is motion picture, 30 billion in the u.s. only and music was 15 of which five alien of recorded music, down from much higher levels. so we are talking about half of the 5 billion when we are talking about tv film and music great music is the smallest but in my opinion at least so as we have watched and it's very much like what happened in the newspapers and yellow pages which is destruction of the hand of digital platforms. where cutting about things that matter in the u.s.. if you want to look at obama numbers take the last numbers i gave you a multiple eyes times very. the numbers are massive when we
7:20 pm
are talking about policy. i want to build on james point. the biggest surprise today and i think it is answered so it's not a question, think the biggest surprise today has been that while consumption has moved at triple digit rates on the internet and specifically internet video because that is the content talked about, money is not in the best example is youtube. the numbers she put up on youtube to take 10-year-old aspect. in 2014 its $3 billion in revenue. i hope the u.s. alone is 150 billion in television and globally that's under three times that. so it's telling you the money isn't following time. i think it's a bit of a conundrum and that's one of the big questions going on in my
7:21 pm
world is the capital allocation world. there is a budget to investors that the leave to their core that money follows consumers. and there's another set saying 10 years and by the way you probably saw last week that all my content guys stocks fell. $43 billion of was wiped out because disney came on and said espn isn't going to growing high singled digits. which is threatening the 75 billion of prescription fees paid by satellite to telcos. my marketers decided last week that a bunch of people without who thought money isn't following consumers and that want, bunch of those people last week 10% of them took money out and said we are going to put money in health care. we donate to sit here.
7:22 pm
this is becoming a bigger question because all of the numbers in the second quarter were weak and revenue is down 9% rate that's bad and disney says espn which is the juggernaut for the monopolists were the most successive livestream on planet earth. the concept that money does follow consumers is a big question that matters a lot. therefore the cost of capital for the television content. and then going back where we started even today's data and you guys use data and you guys use data. if anyone you compete against uses data to make your product faster because the internet allows global connection competitors. if you don't use data do so at your peril because what data does is allow you to make your
7:23 pm
service better faster. so data is becoming more important because it's available and you would be silly not to listen to it. >> is the money following consumers? i wouldn't totally disagree. in the context that pandora which is a small piece of the numbers you're talking about, 10% of radio listening in the united states in 3% of radio advertising, that would seem to confirm your thesis. the money is not following the content. we have been selling advertising into budgets for three years. we are up against incumbents that fight is. it takes a while for these markets for advertisers to get the dollars to move so i would make that conclusion. we are three years into it. i believe, we believe that
7:24 pm
pandora over the next few years are percentage of the advertising dollars may be a greater percentage of that will be equal to or better than our efforts rising share but he think pandora's experience -- i would caution new things selling it to market has been buying the same way for 50 years and a were telling this market oh by the way these channels are changing and they change the way you reach out and find consumers. by the way they target better. the return is higher. the promises they are. i just think it takes a while for the dollars to move. i hope it's not distraction. i hope it's just time delay. [laughter] >> you have been studying this
7:25 pm
for a while and you have talked with the newcomers and the studios and so on. how does this thesis fit with your research? >> let me get back to something laura said about data. i was in class as i frequently do thinking about parallels between moneyball and the entertainment industry. one of my students and i wish i could remember his name because i would love to cite them but one of my students raised his hand and said something very interesting which is in baseball the oakland a's got a year and a half of competitive advantage and pretty quickly everybody else figured out how to use the data to do exactly the same thing. so his question was why is it any different in the entertainment industry and they
7:26 pm
answered and if i don't know. on that question i got tenure by the way but i think one difference is that in major league baseball everyone had access to the same video. you could buy the same data that oakland was using and the difference entertainment is netflix and amazon and the nice people on this panel have that data and it's really hard to get access. >> that's true. >> they use it for their own show. >> on the one hand with moneyball they have the imports they want. >> that's right. >> we also are hearing care that you have all this data but it's not actually changing the balance of power of the industry.
7:27 pm
>> we should talk about balance of power because i think there are disagreements on the panel about this. when you talk about what's going on with ounce of power? >> i don't think all of the balance of power has shifted. i think that it has shifted in terms of consumer -- it's shifted in its ability to target an audience and are you successfully delivering to the audience. perhaps the most interesting issue is the question of movie star versus tv stars. historically those were two different categories. that's no longer true. there are other things going on in the traditional cable and tv world. what is that transfer to for the rest of it? what he transfers to is their
7:28 pm
business practices have had to change. for example if you take matthew mcconaughey out of play on the film circuit and put them on the tv side they will let you stand around and do a pilot. and he spent a month on at deciding whether or not to go. that is not the way the timetable works so all of a sudden if you talk to the networks there are two powers anymore. there are make useful orders because they can't do a deal with them. equally on the film side a lot of the independent deals are done on the markets and i thought the markets were cheaper than nine not yet made movies. you know they were all going to get made and frankly he didn't know which ones he was going to turn up for. it's much harder to pull people
7:29 pm
out of the agency to put them in a film deal when they still have television in the networks and netflix or amazon. so you are changing the way the whole world works and merging a lot of it into one single marketplace and there is a handful of 20 people that can carry either a tv series or a film internationally and its massive competition for their times. a lot of the other people may build up to that but at the moment looking at data we are all looking at the same thing. ..
7:30 pm
including newbies with writing talents who have gotten large advances to write books.
7:31 pm
and we have also seen a shift toward these distributors. i talk about an example where record label discovered that apple was selling content at the right price and call to complain and apple says, do you want us to take it down. that is the take it or leave it power that is scary. >> home way to talk about this, how stars are being made. in the old days the record label had a job at discovering talent and putting them on and develop an album and then go out and promote through radio stations. and so it was a controlled pathway to be successful. that shift to consumer is manifested -- manifested in
7:32 pm
the con sept that the cost of producing music has dropped significantly. you know, it can be distributed for free are some cloud massive usage. there watching the people, all these distribution channels that were out of their control. these social sites and music sites are now determining to be successful.
7:33 pm
end up owning the structure of economics. one of the big to a large extent because lots of variety has popped up in music. the growth, 1,000 the 5,000 venues. it's easier to build an audience of that size and important part of that is the consumer.
7:34 pm
our data allows us to tap into some of those things and how that manifested is hard. maybe a little bit different than longform as well. the music you listen to your whole life is what you listen to between 15 and 25. there is a huge swath of the population that cares a lot about catalog. very backward looking. distributors like netflix because of independence on the back catalog. >> you are raising a. it will generate all this extra revenue. what they are both saying,
7:35 pm
the skill sets now at the top of your game, that's a global skill set. cannot make a living. many people are business people. it's a completely different skill set. the digital globally scaled platforms are actually all the money going to the top half of 1 percent. >> all the economic research shows that consumers get value from accessing. where has all this nice revenue gone?
7:36 pm
consumers are getting great benefit. >> the money is spread out. >> look, 8,000 artists month, 120,000. we are paying half a billion a year in royalties getting spread over a lot of artists. the people at the top are used to getting paid all the money this zeus is some of the points that we will see. second on the video side there is no place to put it.
7:37 pm
there is no complete capacity, certainly not if you expect to get some money today most have very limited service space, limited tolerance for anything that has to sit there can and unfortunately there are relatively few online service providers that can actually just keep the content up and available, and it is pretty rudimentary except for the efforts, x number of artists and names that are familiar. that totally limits what you get. so there will be great consumer value in the video, but you see more of it on cable tv.
7:38 pm
netflix or amazon because of capacity issues. >> for professional content and anecdotes are a lousy way to start an argument but i seei see my kids watching a lot of line to comment. streaming heads. >> we all spent a lot of time on youtube. you have now been trained to appreciate a lot of content. try not to show any better when i am checking facebook but nonetheless we are all doing that, and i don't disagree at all. i talk about the original theory, that there would be economic value at the lower end, and we have not figured out a way to flip that
7:39 pm
value. >> putting this together on the one hand there is in music where they can have a distributor, a very small number hitting the bulk of returns are able to take more returns. they filter stuff on spot a five. or is this too simplistic? >> i think taylor swift is rightfully has done a lot of press, but she may be as kind of an outlier. we respect your decisions, but i think one way that we think about it is an you move someone who has traditionally -- and without
7:40 pm
the machinery that is the major label andfamily think there is room for everyone, especially on our service where you have the major label produced content to my quality and assumed consistently throughout the globe. and then we see poser with few spends on spot a fire early in his career, and are constantine recognized him as good music. he wenthe went from 15,000 streams they did 200,000 streams a day. and then he because of the
7:41 pm
positive reaction by our user base and that people are putting them on playlists, when we curated and put him on certain ones of hours they were never skipped. they were then taken the feedback was there so we moved him to a different playlists. 200,000 streams is a to 2 million a day and then that rolled into top 40 and he was on the physical charts. the global streaming artists our service and today he has over 400 million streams. previously unknown irish artists, fantastic musician and people should here him and have an opportunity to move from probably eternity on the longtail to one of
7:42 pm
the best-selling artists over the last few years. and we feel both as a service and an obligation as part of the music industry to create opportunities is much as possible, and i could give you six or seven today. the.is, can we not only creates spin, recorded music revenue, but can we create new listeners, new fans? that is a big part of how we think about it. howhow many people discovered your music that i've never heard it before? and you know that is a powerful piece because with the reach that we are growing to you have a base of fans that you can reach and will be able to whether touring or other income streams comeau we will give those opportunities as well.
7:43 pm
many opportunities to move people along the longtail curve. >> curve. >> did you use the word spin and stream interchangeably? >> yes. >> do we still spin anything? >> i like spending. >> dream, spend, whatever. >> we are running out of time.time. we would be remiss if we did not address piracy a little bit. distributors and producers, everyone has lots of data, better target, but piracy is still rampant and it is really slick. it's just as easy to use as netflix. and how is this still affecting the industry's and how are they adjusting?
7:44 pm
>> i think wei think we talked a lot at tpi and a variety of other contexts that all of the vast majority of the academic papers that have looked at this have found exactly what you expect to find, piracy hurts sales that we have talked a lot about. less discussed is the fact that piracy screws with the existing business models in the industry, all the business models which is exactly what the context book tells you you should do , use discrimination strategies to maximize revenue. but those strategies depend upon being able to control the timeliness, quality, and usability of content,command piracy makes it harder to execute each and every strategy. there are things that you can do to help of privacy, and making legal content easier to consume marks and making piracy content harder
7:45 pm
to consume works, but it is still an incredibly, incredibly hard problem to solve. and if i no that the concept i am getting ready to buy for ten bucks on itunes is available for free somewhere there are a lot of people that will use that to make the wrong decision. >> you know, what we like a privacy from the standpoint of the independence putting the bigger picture off to the side, but what we are looking at is all instances in which piracy has effectively destroyed the infrastructure, third-party distributors that we count on to put films out. and the big example, courtesy of the desire to have ubiquitous broadband it was built on the back of illegal video content which, there is no legitimate dvd market left.
7:46 pm
so when you go back to who is paying for content you get to saying, you can't presell to spain in most instances. that is a set of circumstances were for most it was not there film that was stolen but overall problem of training a population to expect online content for free with the net result that all you are left with really is the theatrical relief. that phenomenon has got to be put back under control in part because what is really hurting is the ability to integrate legitimate online into the overall distribution and marketing plan. the nirvana for all of us to be able to say, i have a film here, a precious little film that should go to this
7:47 pm
kind of audience, probably not in a vast 3,000 print run across the country but really be taking care of this way and to do so i would like to put it on video on demand on netflix 1st. move it to the theaters and then -- anddidn't -- and then do broader testing to see if i can find my market. you cannot do that if there is no online service whether is an online service but the day goes to video video-on-demand. >> or ten days before. >> or ten days before. and that is part of the explanation for why our ministry -- why our industry is as desperate as we are because people have gone out of business and the economics of changed and not been able to embrace online
7:48 pm
distributors in the way that we would like because people don't no, have not been able to figure out a way in order to get the benefits of this one channel. and so, you know, frankly there are no remedies really remedies that we are pursuing, the culture, the voluntary plan to try to cut off the credit card, cut off the legitimate advertising, figure out a way, ideally automated to notify consumer online that they are watching an illegal topic -- copy and hopefully shift them to a legitimate outlet. but at the end of the day what you are really trying to go after all of the good moneymaking operations. tend not to as an independent have the resources to go after individual fire -- files shares for anything else. and other than what happens
7:49 pm
in the public arena our emphasis has been on trying to teach people the best security method in terms of standard operating principles that mean your lab is secure. but of course expendables three was stolen by lab by a hacked in effort. >> and it is hard. the nsa cannot figure out this problem. it is hard. can i jump in? i mean,, p stands for policy. and this is my little soapbox. this is an important policy question. we looked at piracy and we said there is a lot of creation going on. and as an economist i would argue that is the wrong question to ask. would we get even more if the nice people making this content were getting paid? it is not my paper, but he
7:50 pm
did it with joe where they looked at piracy in bali would around the time that the vcr -- i'm sorry, creation around the time that they made policy -- piracy prevalent. the number of movies produced what way down and the quality as measured by imdb what way down. if that is true it is a problem for everyone in the room that we need to solve. >> question? >> yes. right there. >> wait for the mic which is on its way. >> i have to project from the diaphragm. >> this is great and i understand. feel free to stay out there for as long as you want.
7:51 pm
could any of you comment on investment in the creation of knew entertainment ip specifically interested in whether the transit we are seeing are going to expand into other areas of creative marketplace like music? and to me i think about the empowerment of creators the data. that is important for certain disciplines whether data can be exploited for ancillary revenue. the creators and teams are interested in partnerships for platforms that could include upfront investment without a 35 year transfer copyrights. anyway, ideas about investment in the creation of entertainment ip. >> three points i want to make right off the bat.
7:52 pm
this is the land of giants. when you look at the entrance for content, amazon, google, 60 billion of cash sitting on the books. so the new entrance are as big as the old. that has not changed. the 2nd point i would make is that these are -- trying to get that -- what is your goal? >> on the other side. >> okay. so here is the capitol allocation conundrum for great content makers. in my world where we have liquidity public markets i have the choice to invest in
7:53 pm
facebook which treats 1 billiona billion for people with four apps on the 1st two screens of your smart phone and only monetize one. and every time facebook gives us an estimate of how fast they will hire employees they cannot hit them. jurassic world, hitting all-time highs because they scale globally because the relief worldwide, the experience so that that is how the industry solves the problem. you know, i think that these are industries that are iterative and understand the
7:54 pm
problem, but myproblem, but my world which has liquidity is much more interested in allocating capital to google and twitter and snap chat because they are globally scaled. the entirethe entire employee base of facebook which has $270 billion market just to 10,000 people and employ nobody. so it is really hard to get my guys to find a film or to find a portfolio film which is one of the reasons you end up with juggernauts. they have decided it is strategically important. the big question is engagement. twenty, 30, 40 minutes is the panacea in the internet world or average video limits or three minutes a day, six minutes a day.
7:55 pm
>> certainly i think that what you would like to see is amazon and netflix investing in a way that other distributors do. but this is all about lift transfer. and it is about ultimately making your case with the data we have always relied upon or new data or whatever data you happen to have to any distributor it will get his money back. you will produce the film you say you will produce and that they will derive whatever ancillary benefit is in the market to do. ..
7:56 pm
it said this particular actress has made this much money, maybe she has been in with the genre. she's been in with his much money in the following 17 countries. that's a pretty good bet if you want to go to the 17 countries. people use that data all the time. i think what is difficult in the amazon and netflix world is they have not really yet identified themselves as content creators. they are doing a bit of spearhead what they're doing. but when you start to look at other distributors and other localized platforms and other countries where they are specifically geared towards
7:57 pm
their local, you may well see a different set of economics rising. >> can i say something provocative? i spend much more time talking about how valuable the data is then i would expect them to. >> he is pretty much in love with it. >> he has made some interesting comments about funding films where he talks about how the movie industry as a whole, the the single digit return business but a huge amount of risk. if i understand his comments correctly what he is saying was he thinks netflix could internalize that risk and give a standard rate of return back to the filmmaker. i'm nothing that is a good 8d a or a plausible idea but i think what it says is he believes. >> he said that speech in
7:58 pm
kansas. >> he believes he can use that data in a better job managing risk than anyone else in the industry. i really think he believes that. >> certainly. i think he does believe it. as has every single, solitary overseas where that came came in about a u.s. studio, believed it. i think a few points. one of which is for the creator. if what you want is a mannish return and return and you would like to turn over your copyright that is not a bad deal. there are some areas you may choose to do that. most creators do not want to do that. that is that is not the deal they were angling for. the other thing is all the data in the world didn't save the studios from whatever it was, the fantastic four the other day. the submarine film. none of the data necessarily would have predicted that, once
7:59 pm
again a guilty little secret, many of us tuned in to watch shark nato three the other night. i mean, who knew that was going to be a big deal? big deal? there is something about the creative process and the execution that just isn't captured in a database. you can come up with a lot of yeses. frankly, at a minimum you cannot guess whether one of the stars is going to get arrested in mid- production. >> that's true. >> you just can't do it. so there is a point where he can internalize as much risk as he wants but i bet it will take three films before he stops doing it. >> i just that the not like they do have a better hit rate with all of the data they cannot grow what they have such few viewers.
8:00 pm
>> i think we're going to have to wrap up. it's about lunchtime. i think this is a great panel. i appreciate you participating. >> coming up tonight on c-span2, journalist on his business in iran and then life on the muslim world under president putin. >> an article in the new york times reports to big power supporting different factions and syrian civil war class with each other on tuesday when turkish fire jets shut down a russian warplane that they said straight into an airspace. >> next, newsweek

245 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on