>> i might add that from the beginning when the ttp was first conceived, the idea was that they would be open to all a-pac members and, of course, taiwan has been and is today a member. let me turn to one of our visiting fellows from taiwan over here.

>> my name is arthur, i'm visiting from taiwan, now here csi. in terms of international stage that you pointed out from international press conference that she wished to expand for the taiwan international space should be respected by china or the international community. how exactly are you planning on this issue? thank you. >> this is also very important for taiwan and i think we went through lots of discussions within the tpp and we also went with administration on this issue. i can outline some of the way we think about our international participation to you in just a moment. let me get back to you the tpp. into concluding provision that also mentions specifically about custom territory. when you look around, taiwan is

only one. the way we see it as a space reserved for taiwan and we're very happy that we seem to have a likelihood to be included in the tpp. since this is near consensus in taiwan and, therefore, the government should work very hard on that and try to overcome difficulties that we have internally. and about our international space with international participation, i think what is needed for taiwan is to consider how we can make meaningful contributions so that taiwan can be regarded as a trustworthy partner by the international community. there's actually a lot of things taiwan can do to help the international community. i'm sure the international community remembers what taiwan did when her machine event took

place in japan several years ago. we made significant contributions. taiwan's contribution is a total of the rest of the world and that joseph taiwan and help other countries. so this is the kind of spirit that taiwan should be able to take part in the international activities, and this is something that china cannot come in and say no to. other than making financial contributions there's a set of the things that taiwan can do as well. international humanitarian assistance. we say that and we will work on that. disaster relief, as i say, we can really make some contributions. and rescue efforts. taiwan is quite famous, we send our rescue teams to other countries in a very speedy manner. sometimes this is unfortunately when nepal earthquake took place. we sent our rescue came over and

they're blocked by china. it is not helpful but we will be able to send our rescue teams over to the disaster areas very quickly around the region. this is probably the best way for us to participate in international activities. these kind of things are humanitarian and these kinds of things are not political and these kinds of things would help taiwan's friendship with other countries. i would also like to add that is rescue training center in central taiwan, that started when president chen was in office. the final year of his administration and now it is in operation. there are international rescue teams been trained over there. what we want to do is expand the international training programs so we can form an international network of rescue teams. and, therefore, whenever there is the disaster taken place in

the area, we can join the effort in trying to help those countries or those areas. we made it clear on several occasions and we also spoke with japanese friends in the future, maybe taiwan and japan together can respond to disasters in the region together. also spoke with friends and i want about the joint effort between taiwan and the united states, editing the answer -- in which is quite forthcoming. these are the kinds of things that is not for political gain china is put onto one. this is the kinds of things i wanted would make a contribution in international society. this is the kind of thing taiwan can when friendship from the international society. >> great. >> welcome back. after the election the u.s.

immediately dispatched a secretary, a deputy secretary to visit beijing and also former deputy secretary to visit taipei. what you think in the future that the u.s. can play any role in the cross hair relations? i think one question people here is really interested to know that, is there a credible an indication channel between dpp and chinese government so far that will have an impact about the future, ma cross-strait relations? my final question, are you coming back to have the -- what is your dream job in the new government? thank you. >> you will notice i did not ask you a position you're going to take in this new government, but she put that forward.

>> i would address the first question, or maybe a dress the second question first. it's all hypothetical about where i will be. the first priority for all working in the party headquarters that is to make the transition as smooth as possible. there's no discussion, no discussion at all in the party headquarters about the personnel. so it's not anything that i will be able to answer you, and that is the question at least in our concern during this period of time. and, therefore, i don't know where i will be. [laughter] for the first question i think the united states can play a very significant role in terms of cross-strait relations. i think the united states has been playing that role quite well. for instance, during the course of the campaign i saw that the u.s. officials encouraging the

chinese side to speak with the taiwanese site, or speak with the dpp. i think that kind of encouragement is going to be very helpful. and that can also be a gesture to the taiwan people that pursuing the cross-strait reconciliation is going to be helpful to taiwan u.s. relations. so this is the kind of thing we see as very positive, very conducive to future cross-strait consultation or cross strait negotiations. so i would say that we would need the united states to continue to encourage the two sides to speak with each other. a little far back, further, far back, when i was serving as a chairperson, one thing i continue to hear from the u.s. side is that they encouraged the chinese side to negotiate with taiwan. we have the lunar new year, the

tourism negotiations come things like that. we really appreciate the u.s. encouraging the chinese side to speak with the taiwan side. so if united states can continue to encourage the two sides to speak with each other, that would be very good. i'm very happy to see that the united states is playing that role. that is very helpful. it's a very conducive to how the people feel that we'r we are not dealing after alone with china. the second issue mentioned is about whether the dpp has a channel to china. there are tremendous number of exchanges in between the two sides, local officials, legislatures traveling to china almost all the time, not to mention about the kmt officials and legislators going to china all the time. the are also chinese scholars or

officials coming to taiwan all the time and, therefore, the way i understand about it is if china wants to understand us, they can always find a way to understand us. they do very good intentions and, therefore, they can understand us very well. if you want to understand that we can always find a way to understand it as well and, therefore, a channel should not be a problem. i think the problem is more whether we can build a trust. we we start taking steps trying to assure the chinese side our goodwill, we hope that chinese side can respond by offering some goodwill as well. so that is probably the most important in terms of building the trust in between the two sides. >> i think we've reached the end of our time. essentially been an outstanding session, and i want to thank you so much for coming all the way, right after the elections, and

giving us your thoughtful insight about why the dpp won such a landslide victory and what your agenda is going forward. on behalf of the brookings institution and csis, thank you again, and good luck. >> thank you. [applause] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations]

>> veterans affairs secretary robert mcdonald is on capitol hill talking about his plans to modernize va. is testimony is live at 10 a.m. eastern on c-span3. >> california governor jerry brown gives his state of the state address today before a joint session of the state legislature in sacramento. watch live at 1 p.m. eastern on c-span. >> supreme court associate justice stephen breyer talks about his new book the court and the world this afternoon at the brookings institution. that is live at 2 p.m. eastern on c-span3.

>> the u.s. energy information administrator and other analysts testified before a senate energy and natural resources committee hearing on the outlook for energy and commodity markets. the witnesses answered questions on the effect of iran entering the world oil market. this is about two hours 20 minutes. >> good morning. we will call to order the committee on natural resources. thank you for joining us this morning. this is the first hearing that the energy committee has had in 2016 am at i think it's rather auspicious that today we're going to be conducting oversight to examine the near-term outlook for energy and commodity markets. i think everybody is interested in what you have to say, the predictions, the forecast.

hopefully your crystal balls are clear and sharp this morning. it is an issue that is not only interesting but clearly consequential in so many different ways as we look to the outlook for not all of the energy of the mineral markets as well. there are few commodities that are more foundational to the health of our economy and energy and minerals. most americans are familiar with gasoline prices at their electricity bills, but i would submit it's our responsibility to senators to do our best to understand the complex interplay of our nation's energy mix and influences that drive key energy and resource indicators. low oil prices lead to lower gasoline prices. americans are certainly enjoying that. but what is the knock on effect with respect our natural gas prices? as fossil fuel prices fall how

does that affect the competitiveness for renewables as well as nuclear power? and also what is the impact on jobs and consumer spending and so when? there's just so much that is again enter belated today, the complexities are such that we require experts to come and give us a little bit of forecast as to how it all plays out. i am reminded, however, that as we see things like lower oil prices in the lower 48, they are not necessarily reflected evenly across the united states. i was home in nome, alaska, about 10 days or so ago. prices are in the mid-$5 range. down where was the following day about $5.40 a gallon. they are looking with some envy

at the fact that in the lower 48 they looking at gas prices at the pump just above $2. sometimes things don't work to the benefit of all evenly, and i think that is something that we keep a particular eye on in alaska. we did some good work on the committee here last year in 2015, and i think within this in itself we saw the return of regular order in the senate a little bit. in energy policy we laid some foundations to modernize our strategic petroleum reserve. we lifted the ban on oil exports, and then more specifically to where we are right now, we passed out on a bipartisan vote the energy policy modernization act that moved out of this committee. i'm working to ensure that bill gets to the floor hopefully as soon as possible.

i think it is fitting, therefore, we hold this hearing on the broad energy outlook shortly before the full senate might turn to our broader energy bill. it's my hope that we would gather critical current information this one to inform our thinking before we had to the floor to debate is 1224. i think all the witnesses for joining us this morning. we have some delay faces. mr. sieminski who is ably led the energy information administration. we have to newcomers as well and we welcome you. we are fortunate that there are reams of data from government and neutral sources to help us deepen understanding of the energy markets and i look forward to hearing from you all. with that i would turn to my ranking member for your comments this morning. >> thank you, madam chair, thank you for holding this important hearing to examine the near-term outlook for energy markets. i think the witnesses -- i thank

the witnesses for joining us here on the important on discussion ahead of a potential floor debate on i pars energy bill put energy markets have been changing rapidly in the last year and i'm sure we will hear a lot about that but i want to emphasize a few things. winter patches go by 67% from less than nine gigawatts to nearly 70 gigawatts in the last 10 years. in part to success enabled by an all time low reduction in the cost of wind power. the rates for wind purchase power agreements have fallen seven since a kilowatt hour in 2009 to 2 cents a kilowatt hour recently. that's a 71% drop. these trends are prevalent all across the united states. utility scale wind power is developed across 39 states, and the united states, wind exceeds 10% of the total in state electricity generation. it's not just wind. solar and photovoltaic technology has emerged as a

mainstream technology over the last few years. utility-scale's soul has grown to more than 10 gigawatts in 2015. distributed tv systems installed on customers and business rooftops have seen the same level of growth. there are more than 80,000 distributed systems installed. this is possible because a dramatic decline in the price of systems down 59% over the last six years. interest in renewable energy just hasn't been from electric utilities and customers. in 2015 there was a breaking year for corporations such as amazon, microsoft, google, wal-mart t who purchase large scale wind and solar energy. they signed roughly three gigawatts of power purchase agreements for large-scale renewable energy last year, and this is more than double the amount signaled in 2014. these trends have also been benefiting in my home state

washington's win finish seventh in the nation for installed wind capacity and ranks 15th for solar power. i'm sure some things people just can't quite understand but it's true. 25th in the nation for total solar capacity. recent policy changes will accelerate these trends pretty more jobs, reducing carbon pollution and saving consumers money. why the sudden drop in cost? in part because of policy. in 2015 the addition of the policies that will build upon the success of previous support for renewable energy. for instance, august 2015 epa sided clean power plan rule which will reduce car pollution from power plants, drive more aggressive transition to renewable energy and last december more than 190 nations reached a historic accord to address climate change, committing your every country to lower carbon pollution in to keep global temperatures are rising. these domestic and global

commitments to reducing carbon pollution will create new global market opportunities and export opportunities for the u.s. and our technologies. in fact, the international energy agency estimates for .000000000000 dollars for renewable energy investments and but $8 trillion in energy efficient investment ultimate across the world in the next 15 years. lastly, at the end of the last year the omnibus spending bill included long-term extensions for clean energy tax credits and the also be sending a signal. according to bloomberg new energy finance as i'm sure we will hear shortly it is estimated as a result in 76% more wind energy and 44% more solar energy. if these policies had not been extended. all of these policies continue to accelerate the transfer clean energy development reducing carbon pollution and saving consumers money and creating jobs. i will say this is a big factor

for us to consider. for our job creation activities going on. our report from the solar foundation found you a solar industry employ employed more tn 200,000 americans in 2015 with a 20% growth in the solar industry employment. for perspective the solar industry moved 12 times faster than the national employment growth rate during the same time period of the solar workforce is now larger than the more well established fossil fuel generation sector such as oil and gas extraction industries. the u.s. wind industry has had similar job growth trends supporting over 70,000 well-paying jobs, but it's also important talk about the consumer in this equation. renewable energy policy does not only create jobs, they help save my for consumers and provide more choices. in a new study by the national renewable energy laboratory and lawrence berkeley national laboratory, renewable portfolio standards help lower prices, saving consumers up to 1.2 held

in dollars from electricity and $3.7 billion from reduced natural gas prices. recent low oil and natural gas prices have resulted in savings for consumers. aaa estimates american save $115 billion on gasoline in 2015 compared to 2014. that i think is an average of about $550 per driver. however these fossil fuel commodities are still susceptible to price swings. i'm sure we'll hear about that today. less than two years ago oil prices were over $100 per barrel. oil prices could continue to experience heightened volatili volatility. that is over the next two years, that prediction to in contrast renewable technologies which is wind and solar are not as susceptible to these price volatility is, and consumers should have choice and should not face roadblockroadblock s on

being able to but these choices. we will continue to support those policies that give homeowners and businesses the freedom to generate their new development, whether you're and environmentalists or a tea party person, supporting distributed generation and making sure they get access to be i in the own distribution this is something i think we will continue to talk about you. thank you, madam chair for holding this important hearing, and i hope that we'll hear a lot from our witnesses today about how and what we can expect from the next few years. thank you. >> thank you. with that we will turn to our panel of witnesses. it would be let off i mr. adam sieminski boosted minnesota for u.s. energy information administration, the the a i a. ufo bikes mr. and one half, program director for the global oil markets for the center on global energy policy located at columbia university. we also have james lucier who is

the managing director for capital alpha partners. we have ethan zindler who has joined the committee here today as head of the americas and for new energy finance, and rounding things out is mr. daniel mcgroarty who is the principal at carmot strategic group. with that, mr. sieminski, if you would begin with the panel. i know you have a lot to say, so we'll probably have to go over are allocated five minutes. we are good with that because there's a fair amount of information i think needs biggest maybe just a couple of minutes. spirit we appreciate what people give to us and know that will also opportunities for expansion will become to the committee. if you would please start off. >> thank you, chairman murkowski, ranking member cantwell, senators cassidy and open. i appreciate the opportunity to

provide testimony today on the u.s. energy outlook. the energy information administration is a statistical and analytical agency within the department of energy. but by about the i a's data analysis and forecast is independent of approval by any other officer or employee therefore my views and should not be construed as representing those of the department of energy or any other federal agency. major changes affecting energy markets have occurred over the past year in the areas of global commodity prices, energy technologies and u.s. energy and environmental policies. eia's annual outlook for 2 2016 which will be published by major will include these changes. what i'd like to do is talk a little bit about last year and then talk about the forecast. crude oil into 2015 with both brent and wti below $40 a barrel the lowest level since early 2009. the decline as continue with today's wti price traded just

under $30 a barrel. with the fall in prices, u.s. onshore crude oil production began to decline in early 2015 but still averaged 9.4 million barrels a day, and that was 8% higher than 2014. natural gas spot prices at henry have in louisiana averaged to .63 dollars per million btu in 2015, 40% below the 2014 average. however, drilling was highly productive, total production in 2015 reached an estimated 74.5 billion cubic feet per day almost 6%-2014. in april 15 natural gas fired electricity generation surpassed that of coal-fired generation on a monthly basis for the first time in history and did so for much of the rest of the year. bat and lower exports led coal production in 2015 to fall below

900 million short tons, the lowest level since the mid 1980s. commodity prices, the weather and investment in renewable drove changes in electricity. the wholesale price of electricity set by natural gas generators though by 27-37% and major trading across the nation. nuclear generation through october was the highest since 2010. due to low levels of outages. they were the lowest on record, about 3% of the summer capacity. hydroelectricity accounted for 6% of total generation despite lower than normal water and snowpack levels in several regions. window provided something like 4% -- wind. utility scale solar photovoltaic

generation increased by half of the first 10 months of 2015 based on the i a's new monthly estimates of capacity and generation from small-scale distributed sore that we're not doing by both sector in state. now going to turn to the short-term energy outlook which provides monthly forecasts through 2017. crude oil refined product prices in 2016 and refined product prices, are forecast to be lower than in 2015 with brent crude back up to about $40 a barrel by the end of 16, and $50 a barrel in 2017 with wti averaging $2.3 a barrel lower than branch. a word of caution is advisable. the current values in the futures and options markets suggests that market participants see very high uncertainty in the price outlook. this is what senator cantwell

said. the risk is both the upside and downside. the retail price of making gasoline forecast average just a little over $2 a gallon in 2016 and $2.21 in 2017. that's down from $2.43 last year, and down from $3.36 in 2014. so a big drop in gasoline prices. u.s. crude oil production is expected to continue to decline through 2016 and most of 2017. this is very different than two years ago when production was climbing and climbing rapidly. the global oil market becomes more balanced because of these declines in 2017. non-opec production is estimated to fall by 6000 barrels a day in 2016, about two-thirds is driven by lower production in the united states. outside of the u.s. not opec production declines are relatively small because of past investments, and project commitments made when oil prices

were higher. canada and brazil are good examples of that situation. eia the forecast half-million barrel a day increase in opec production 2016 and about 26 billion barrels in 2017 with a rant again and again for most of the increased at 300,000 barrels a day in 2016 in half an million barrels a day in 2017. they were developed which there over the weekend with sanctions finally being removed. eia's forecast assumes sanctions targeting iran's oil sector would be lifted, and that is the case. eia's forecast or henry hub spot prices averaged $2.55. current levels or near $2 so that would be a fairly big increase but it reflects consumption growth mainly in international sector, fertilizers and chemicals, for

example, and eia expects small decline in the power sector is natural gas prices rise and renewables hydro, wind, solar increase. eia projects growth will be slow in 2070 as prices rise with more demand from industrial users and exports. the exports are expected to grow quite a bit of pipeline to mexico and liquefied natural gas tanker shipments with the start of a past facility later in the spring. coal consumption in the power sector's forecast remains unchanged in 2016, declined slightly in 2017 by the forecast help support coal generation expected increase in electricity from renewables and nuclear reduced the need for coal generation. with slower growth and world demand and lower international coal prices expected u.s. coal production is forecasted to decline by 38 million short tons and by an additional

9 million tons in 17. the change in the mix of electric generating units to supply the united states is expected to continue with a declining generation share from fossil fuels offset by the growth in the role of renewable resources as shown in table one in my full written statement. they madam chairman, this concludes my testimony, and i would be happy to answer questions later. >> mr. sieminski, thank you very much. i'm sure there will be questions. mr. halff, welcome. >> thank you very much. chairman murkowski, ranking member cantwell, appreciate it very much the opportunity to share some of my views today, provide testimony but i'd like to focus on the oil market and take a step back from some of the numbers in trying to find the key drivers as they see as pushing the price low work. this selloff, the scope, the

situation of the downturn the prices have come as much of the market. it hasn't run its course. there's more movement for lower prices, but this selloff is not sustainable and eventually the price will rebound in the market will recover but it will emerge different from the recovery from what it was before. this is the -- there's been major price collapses about every 10 years. this one is different because the market has changed in key ways on the supply side and on the demand side. on the supply-side two key factors are the event of shale oil in the u.s. and also the wave of social unrest that is sweeping through many producing countries. the impact of shale oil has led opec to give up its price management strategy, the practice of cutting supply to support prices, with which opec has been identified over the last 30 years. there are three main reasons why that is so.

one reason is that shale oil has changed the perception of supply into a question of support abundance. it is unlocked huge resources not just the u.s. but potentially elsewhere in argentina and russia. this has likely changed the view of major producers like saudi arabia about how best to optimize revenue from the resources. the saudi oil administrator in the last 18 months or so has repeatedly come back to the idea of what he called black swan, the idea that in 20 years demand will not be there in saudi arabia might see a huge ocean of oil that is not worth as much as before. so this is essentially seemingly incentivized producers to speed up the pace of extraction of the resource and maximize their revenue by setting more now and keeping less for future generations. another way in which shale oil has changed the picture is by

shrinking the trade map for crude oil. the u.s. doesn't need to import as much as before. it is also the case of europe, because european refineries have found it difficult to compete with u.s. refineries which have increased their activity with the development of natural domestic resources in the u.s. so it has less crude flowing into the u.s., less crude flowing into europe. the market is heavily concentrated in the eastern region, asia, and increasing so in the next against the that makes it more difficult for opec to cap production and allocate production across the world when, in fact, opec producers as other producers are increasingly competing with one another in a very finite marketplace in asia. and the third factor which limits the scope of opec to cut production is the way shale has changed the business cycle of the oil market.

it's a much shorter business cycle. that shale industry, shale companies are very different from traditional, conventional oil companies. they require less initial capital investment. they have much shorter payback times, deeper decline rates. that means that if opec had flown to its old strategy of cutting supply company would in effect have subsidized shale production and enabled shale oil producer to come in the market very quickly as soon as prices came back up. so it's not entirely a surprise that saudi arabia and other opec members have given up the practice of capping production. other producers also been incentivized to produce work on the unrest in the country. this is the case of russia, this is the case of iraq, this is the case of brazil. all these producers have been

incentivized to produce more and to make up the volume weighted lost in price. on the demand side, demand has also been very weak and that is undermined prices as well. the normal demand response one might expect from a drop in prices has not happened for a number of reasons. the slowdown in china, changes in currencies of major consuming countries, and effort to subsidized oil prices by a number of emerging economies. in addition, the environment in many economies meant at low prices increased expectation of deflation instead of stimulating economic growth. enters concerns in the oil sector about the rapid pace of penetration of traditional oil markets like natural gas and renewables. so all these factors are changing the picture. means there's much more supply,

much more downward pressure on prices. we are seeing the beginning of the supply response but supply continues to exceed demand. inventories, that means more pressure the longer-term there will be a correction because the same factors incentivizing producers to maximize the revenue also incentivized them to cut their spending and investing very little in future production. so there's a lot of new projects to make up for decline rates, and the decline rates are increasing because necessary maintenance has been pushed back to reduce. we're likely to see an increase in decline rates, and increase in natural drop in production and a lack of new projects to make up for those declines. so eventually we see very steep rebound in prices when really, in inventory reaches reflection point and starts going to this

concludes my remark and i would be very happy to take questions. thank you. >> thank you. mr. lussier. >> chairman murkowski, ranking member cantwell, senator cassidy, senator hoeven, thank you for the opportunity to testify before this committee. i'm honored she would request my views in a state of the electric power industry and the power markets. in these remarks i represent high level of his own electric utilities, merchant our producers and the critical issues of price or mission and market structure in the wholesale power markets. my name is a james lucier and i have been the managing director and head of the energy practice at capital alpha partners, and independent research advisory firm that serves mostly institutional asset managers and financial participants in the power markets. i personally have been devoting the bulk of my time to the electric power industry and to the power markets since i first started following them as an analyst at prudential equity group in the california power

crisis of 2001. it's been an interesting 16 years. if i were to characterize the state of the power markets in five points i would offer the following. first, inflation adjusted retail power prices are at historically low levels but also consistent with the historically stable range, showing a system in the industry generally have served consumers well by maintaining low and stable prices over a considerable period of time. also, wholesale power prices are similar at a ten-year low which shows service to consumers but also reflects love interest rates of low natural gas prices which cannot be taken for granted. and possible design flaws in wholesale power markets which i believe may not be sustainable. in the regulated utility space, corporate management faces a conundrum. out -- how to maintain or increase our earnings to satisfied shareholders at a time

when power demand after declining year on year for the first time in u.s. history after 2008 remains flat or nearly flat as far as the eye can see, which is to say well into the forecast of future. in the merchant our space generators are hard-pressed to show a return on equity that would justify nuke investment in competitive markets that serve two-thirds of the u.s. population. a step change downward and natural gas prices since 2008 which we will credit to the shale revolution as part of the story but also our troublesome issues price for mission and energy markets and the development of appropriate pricing mechanisms for reliability and ancillary services. finally, as this committee knows the welcome the demands of the epa's clean power plan will drive the greatest investment cycle ever in history of u.s. power industry, perhaps some money to hundreds of billions of dollars as existing base load power plants retyping begin as

we've already seen with a virtually and air toxics standards cycle of 2015 and continuing through 2030 and beyond. the single greatest challenge in the power markets today is financing for techno- chief investment into infrastructure upgrade cycle needed to replace retiring base load and to have a new perhaps even unforeseen demands between now, 2030 and beyond. this challenge must be dealt with now any prudent, thoughtful and timely manner last do feel to act consumer price increases that could be managed or medicated now become disruptive price shocks with. the power industry has been battered by series of shocks including interest rates, commodity prices and the effects of the great recession of 2008. but at the same kind is always evolving industry is in a period of rapid technological innovation. policymakers should take a

balanced, long-term view looking to making a diversity of options long into the future. new technology and innovation by all participants should be welcomed. but at the same time policymakers should recognize that the existing infrastructure with its diversity, business models, fuel types of public and private ownership represents not just the spinning reserve or flywheel that keeps power flowing, but also a deep pool of invested capital that keeps the system working financially as well. that concludes my remarks to i look forward to your questions. >> thank you, sir. mr. zindler, welcome. >> good morning and thank you -- got it. good morning and thank you for this opportunity today. this is my first appearance before this panel under chairman murkowski's new leadership, so thank you. i appreciate the opportunity to contribute. i'm here today and i will as analyst with bloomberg news energy finance, energy market

research division for financial information provider of bloomberg. our group provides investors and others with data and insight on what we call new energy technology. these include renewables such as wind and solar, electric vehicles, energy efficiency technologies, power storage such as batteries and natural gas among others. i would, my remarks represent my views alone, not deliver. they do not represent specific district specific investment advice. i'd like to start by saying these are without doubt auspicious and exciting times for new energy technologies, both globally and in the u.s. thanks to accomplish of economics and policy actions. i would argue a fundamental rethink is now well underway about energy gets produced, delivered, consumed and managed in many parts of the world including the u.s. in 2015 investment in these new energy sectors achieved an all-time high of $329 billion

globally. the volume of renewable energy capacity deployed to wind, solar and other similar powergenerating technologies also soared to a record globally. what is notable is this bill that of the project is rising at a much quicker pace than its investment reflecting the fact that clean energy unit costs have dropped very dramatically. for clean energy sectors received over $1 trillion in new capital over the past four years and over $2.5 trillion in the past decade. with approximately one half of all new capacity built worldwide in 2015 represented by renewables it is fair to say clean energy is no longer an alternative source but now very much in the mainstream. what's behind this growth? improved price competitiveness with new technologies and policies support from cover. it should be noted the latter policy actions is certainly assisted in achieving the former of lower clean energy prices.

here in the u.s. we sing the power sector continue an unprecedented shift away from traditional higher co2 emitting sources of power generation and in that regard lasher will likely be remembered as a watershed year or decarbonization. consider that in 2015 and angel record one of coal-fired power generating capacity was either retired or converted to burn other fuels such as natural gas or biomass. every component of natural gas burned in our plans and gas account for roughly one-third of all u.s. power, about the same as goal for the first time. solar photovoltaic capacity added an all-time high with the strong growth in both rooftop and utility-scale subsectors. and use clean energy investment totaled $56 billion which was the most in four years and the second most ever. since 2007 for shared use power provided by renewables including large hydra project, natural gas and nuclear is surged from 49%

to 69% with the wind gas and solar accounting for nearly all new capacity that has been added. the net result is co2 emissions in 2015 fell to the lowest level since sometime in the 1990s from the power sector. over the past eight year average retail power prices in both markets remain level while average wholesale prices have dropped. regarding energy efficiency over the past five years youth demand for electricity at all sources of energy has remained basically flat, even as the economy has grown. efficiency improvements to homes, buildings and automobiles have all made contributions. as an aside average of many of these trends will be highlighted in an upcoming sustainable energy and america factbook which we'll be releasing in just a few weeks. the achievements of the pastor from clean energy can't even as fossil fuel prices, most notably oil but also gas, to a lesser extent coal, or falling. the impact on new energy

technologies has been muted for a variety of reasons. the went everywhere goal oil prices did impact the sector was in a sale of hybrid electric vehicles which slipped in 2015. it should be noted pure electric vehicle sales continue to rise and automakers are now rolling out new, more affordably priced electric vehicles with longer ranges thanks to lower-priced batteries. looking at the growth path appears wider and better defined the brass at any time. the so-called paris agreement at the end of 2015 saw over 190 nations committing to reduce co2 emissions. in the u.s. epa's clean power plan has the potential to offer greater certainty for clean energy to the next decade. finally, congresses extension of credits for wind and solar ensure growth as well. the playing field where clean energy technologies compete and beat their income rivals on costs continue to expand thanks

to technological innovation and economies of scale. while risks and potential obstacles exist the overall outlook is positive for growth and change. thank you again for this opportunity. i look forward to questions. >> mr. mcgroarty. >> thank you. my thanks to the committee for the opportunity to testify this morning. i am the principle of carmot strategic group and issues management firm based in washington, d.c. strategic resources are core elements of my practice. my advisory company include taxes resources, graphite one, american agonies, done and capital management, working to develop new source of metals ranging from copper, graphite and worth but i consoled for the institute of defense analysis. the views expressed today are my own.

the committee asked a single question as interpol and and that's where i will start. the near-term outlook for the commodity markets can be summed up in a single word, bleak. we heard about the collapse in the price of oil, the same is generally true for commodity prices. look at five key industrial minerals. in the past tigers aluminum is down 36%. led 35. zinc down 40. coppertone 55. nickel down 64. this is not as if commodity cycles are novel. at econ 101. the market is self-correcting and in the long run that is true. it's also true that in the long run we are all dead. i can't answer the question how long is the long run. but i can discuss is what risks we run now into the near-term while we wait for the long run to arrive. those risks are real good when it comes to critical metals that china is deeply dependent and growing more so.

the u.s. geological survey just released a historical snapshot. 30 years ago the u.s. was 100% for independent for 11 metals and minerals. today the u.s. is 100% import dependent for 19 metals and more than 50% dependent for 47 minutes, nearly half a natural occurring metals on the periodic table. this has applications for national security. in the most recent defense to stop a report of the 12 materials the pentagon recommends for stockpiling, china is the significance of life of all 12. we are in the midst of a material science revolution that access to so-called minor metals is taking on major implications. unfortunately, u.s. dependency isn't severe, even complete. consider clean energy. graphite is key to batteries energy stored. the united states produces zero natural graphite. ndm is need for flatscreen tvs and solar panels but we produce

zero. thin film solar panels are made of copper, gallium. we have a 6000 metric ton copper gap at present and selenium is covered -- recover from copper processing. the list is long. we need regime for fighter jets like the f-35, is depend on copper processing and for 83% import dependent. we need where earth's into many applications to list. wind turbines, lasers for medical eyelashes duty, smart phones. we produce zero where earth. we are once again 100 dependent on china. and effort to reverse our resource dependency the american and security act is a strong step in the right direction. work is being done at the agency. took a strategic metals needed. critical materials institute at d.o.e. and at the white house materials, the white house of

material genome initiative which aims at supporting adequate u.s. efforts to discover, manufacture and deploy advanced material twice as fast at a fraction of the cost. that's a laudable goal but is going to difficult for american innovators to be twice as fast when the process is twice as slow as in many other mining nations. we can do more to encourage recycling of rare metals from scrap laptops and cell phones, so-called urban mining. we should continue efforts to find substitutes to rare metals but we must recognize and search for substitutes which we may soon be swapper depends on one scarce winter for another equally or even more scarce. that's why i'm a subscriber to the all of above, let's recycle, seek substitutes bullets also recognize there's no way out of our dependency with the added production. going back to the commodity cycle, pricing will come back. remember the long run. fbos allows veterans making process and longer, production of key metals will take place

elsewhere. the manufacturing we want to see writer in america will be pulled to are the metals market apple close with a comment and question that i don't think there's another nation that can match american ingenuity. we can pioneer the ideas behind wind and solar that we can decide ever more powerful technologies for our war fighters but where will the materials to make these applications we'll? we will they come from? i thank the committee for this opportunity to testify and i look forward to your questions. >> thank you, mr. mcgroarty. i think it's so important to the conversation that we be discussing minerals and those commodities. i think far too often we get focused on the vulnerability that we have historically when it comes to reliance on others for oil. that's understood. people know about that, but they failed to make that connect when we are talking about the need for our minerals. and what it is that we use them

for. so i look forward to that discussion with you. i want to ask the question i think is on everyone's mind here today as we have seen over the weekend the implementation day with the agreement with iran. the fact that the sanctions that have been put in place on oil coming out of iran have now been lifted, that those reserves that were sitting in tankers offshore are not able to go out and find customers. you have suggested, mr. sieminski, that in 16 we should anticipate about 300,000 barrels coming out of iran into the global oil market. by 17,500,000 -- by 17, 500,000

additional. there's been suggestions that what we will see ultimately from iran is in the range of a million barrels a day coming from iran. when you look to the longer-term and what is happening with the response today from iran getting the oil out on the market, the impact to the global market and to the price of oil, the fact that we already have a glut of oil out on the market, what does that mean for the short term pricing of oil? you've indicated your estimate is somewhere between 40-50, between 2016 and 2017. can you give me more certainty

going beyond 17 in terms of what iran does to the market? and then also if you can discuss, and i'll ask you, mr. halff, do join this conversation, to discuss the situation in venezuela and the fact that you have indicated that we can't ignore venezuela in this discussion as we are looking at the international picture on production. so if we can have this conversation, iran, venezuela, just for good measure we can throw in saudi arabia. mr. sieminski, if you want to start. >> senator, iran had been producing about 2.8 million barrels a day of crude oil and other liquids, so we think that could hit 3.3 million barrels a day by the end of 2016.

these numbers move around a lot, depends on how much comes out of storage and how much comes out of production. welcome back to that in a second. we thought the number could hit 3.7 million barrels a day by the end of 2017, so that the less than about the close to that million barrels a day growth number from where they are now. the annual averages would be a little bit different because the trend is up so the annual averages are going to be a little bit lower. in thinking about iran, the are two aspects to this. they have between 30-50 million barrels of floating storage in tankers that could come onto the market fairly quickly, but a lot of it is believed to be condensates and so it's a very light kind of crude oil and the market for that are mostly in chemicals business, and a lot of it was probably destined for china. we will just have to see how that works into the estimates

for china's economic growth. the second aspect is how quickly production can actually grow, and that may depend on how rapidly for an investment is allowed to come into iran to help them rebuild their oil fields. that could be a bit slow, so there are a lot of uncertainties in this. and then layering on something that antoine mentioned earlier, this relationship between saudi arabia and iraq and the rent is very important. iran is one of the three big players along with those other two countries in the gulf area, and have each of those countries puts their volumes of crude oil on the market has a lot to do with where prices end up. so there's probably going to be a lot of back and forth between those three countries.

so i think we are back to that observation that says that the uncertainty in crude oil prices as will look out over the next year or two is very high. >> greater volatility. mr. halff? >> yes. i agree totally. ..