him. hillary clinton has yet to get those -- those old-lined lined up behind him. hillary clinton as yet to get those. host: i want to show the map you are talking about, the breakdown by counties. lou is hillary clinton supporters, green are bernie sanders supporters and the great counties that were there, it was a tie. guest: you will notice the southern counties for clinton are rural, 56 counties in the state that have populations of less than 15,000 people, clinton had the vast majority of those. she also had the most populous county in the state, where des center, and not surprisingly, bernie sanders had the counties around the university of iowa, it can see in the east side of this day, south of cedar rapids, johnson

county, iowa city, the university and he did well there. the county north of des moines, where iowa state university is, bernie sanders had the counties with the largest college populations. surprisingly a little bit, bernie sanders did well along the western edge of this day, the northwest, and down south ,long the river, the low hills they apparently only exist in iowa and japan, i just learned this the other day, -- host: fun facts. guest: got to love him. that is where hillary clinton did well back in the day, but bernie sanders did better this time. host: let's stick with that caller's question, on this issue of immigration, marco rubio was part of this gang of eight that

ted cruz really attacked him on that issue. in iowa, you have the base folder in iowa and they say he deserves a spot. voters who said immigration was the most important issue, donald trump had 33 percent, ted cruz percent and marco rubio had 9%. this really tells you that this is still a third rail for republican voters. they are much more interested in donald trump's vision of build a wall, make mexico pay for it, which i don't understand how that will happen, but whatever, and then they are in a comprehension immigration reform package like the one marco rubio participated in when the gang of eight got together, however, they don't support that because it is running for president. host: how did he get third is that only garnered him 9% of the vote? guest: you take a look at which

candidate they believe will win and marco rubio to 43% compared to the 22% for ted cruz, so marco rubio is trying to emerge as the candidate who appears to be the most electable in the long run. we will see if that is a viable option. ted cruz said something fast during the speech, he said, this is a win for the grassroots, and better likets -- that at the moment. host: ted cruz supporters, that is that 10 area, donald trump the red, and marco rubio with few counties. guest: but the most populous counties. he has the morning, johnson county south of cedar rapids, and by the way, these maps can be a little misleading because in a lot of the counties, ted cruz may have had 28 and rubio at 26, so they are a little bit misleading, but notice that ted

cruz did well in the rural counties. this looks a little bit like a 2012 map where rick santorum narrowly beat mitt romney. in that case, rick santorum had the vast majority of these abiola, rural counties, and mitt story had few, including -- actually, well, anyway, this looks similar to that map. trump did well along the western of the states and the eastern sides, too. on the other hand, in the northwest, that is where it the christian conservatives face is the strongest and those are some of ted cruz's best candidates. host: we go to indiana. beth, thank you. caller: my question is about ted cruz. how can he run for president? isn't he canadian?

i'm confused. i had written this down, but there is a section of the u.s. code, and i cannot recall the exact section and it lays outbut exactly what it means to be a natural born citizen. 's campaign says he qualifies as a natural born citizen under the provisions. they include -- there are provisions, and i'm no constitutional expert, but there are provisions that include sort of the what happens when one parent is a citizen but living abroad, so i am not the guy to give the final answer, but there is a section of the u.s. code and i will try to find it during break or something. host: abilene, texas. lindsay. a republican. caller: good morning. in my opinion, the most

important issue right now is our economy. i feel like it is important that we [indiscernible] i am for rand paul, and he has been actively trying to push this. as being a rand paul supporter, i get frustrated with the media. sometimes, he will be higher in the polls than other candidates, but they don't mention him. i think a lot of the votes we saw in iowa were strategic votes to make sure that donald trump does not win. i do not think that we are really paying attention to who is the best candidate. opinion, rand my paul, very constitutional, a good financial plan, one of the best plans in syria. i just feel a little bit in the twilight zone. host: well, he came in fifth in iowa last night. guest: and among the toys 7% of

republican voters that said jobs in the economy where the most important, he had 4% of the vote. the poll has been one of the more surprising to downside candidates. one year ago, he was the most interesting person in the republican party as one washington publication put it way back then. he was reaching out to minority voters, doing everything he could to change the shape of the republican party. he just has not caught on. he has not been able to light a fire under a significant portion of the base. i am shocked. take a look at the iowa caucus results from 2012 from 2008 and if you look at those maps, they are counties that rand paul won. host: what is the future of this candidacy? inst: for the u.s. senate kentucky is probably strong. he faces reelection this year and he is able to be on the ballots for presidential and

senate races, but it is not likely will continue to be in the presidential race unless he has a shockingly upsetting result in new hampshire. host: when do you see more republican candidates getting out of the race? guest: we lost huckabee and martin o'malley. i think you can probably expect rick santorum to be out of the race soon. he tried his best. rick santorum spent more time in iowa than any other candidate, something like 293 events, which is a lot. he must have met everybody in the whole state, but still do not too terribly well. heen that the bank on iowa, is probably gone. i think new hampshire will be know?g clearing out, you you have so many candidates making the case in new hampshire, whether it is john kasich, jeb bush, carly fiorina, that is a lot of people trying

or vying for the top three spots, one of which will go to donald trump. the second of which will probably go to ted cruz. if you divide the establishment, just like the christian right does not have a strong foothold in new hampshire have a but if you divide the establishment arrived as 17 ways from sunday, that is a small foothold in the becomes 30 valuable. if two of the tickets out of new hampshire are already taken, it will be tough for a lot of the others to continue. host: and those other guys not spending the night in iowa but many in new hampshire, and then there joined this morning by all the others as eyes turned to the granite state and you will be voting on february 9. ryan, you, democrat. good morning. caller: good morning. host: question or comment, sir? caller: i would like to say i am very surprised that bernie it this far.

i am a bernie sanders supporter, i would like to say that burst, and that appreciate c-span taken my call. surprise that bernie sanders made it this far. guest: i am, too. it is hard to contemplate the something 70 frequent-accented guy who is been the senate for -- what? his second term after being in callsuse -- and he himself a socialist. this is not barack obama, someone would the magnetism, yet, he has struck a chord. in a sense, it should not be that surprising at a time when people hate their politicians so much. there is a deep anger on the left and right about politics as usual and how broken washington is. the conclusion, it is the same

feeling leading to a conclusion to support donald trump or bernie sanders. poll echoedhe exit that sentiment? guest: i did not see anything specifically got to that point, i have spent a lot of time at and, go sign up at morning consol.com, but we toduct weekly polls of 2000 4000 people. a couple of times, i have pulled the numbers of people who support donald trump, and you call them up and say why? inevitably say because i hate washington, politics, and it is not a dislike, no, no, it is the strong hate filled feeling of what happens in washington, d.c. and it is hard to blame people. host: reid wilson is the morning

consults chief political correspondent. alice,good alex, -- high, alice. think i ametimes, i living in a twilight so. i voted for hillary clinton when she was running for president before, and she is out there debasing andd seamen like she did not do a thing, and then i wake up to a minority vote like she thinks people are stupid. she cannot be- touched. host: we will take that point and she needs to be held accountable. guest: as well as bernie sanders and donald trump are generating excitement because they hate washington. donald trump is the republican nominee. he can win the general election

and i think you can win because the democratic party appears poised to collect the single ,ost political candidate hillary clinton. why my sources and that tell me that the fbi investigation were not lead to an indictment or conviction, it does not have to. it speaks, the e-mail issue and all that, it speaks to the sort of nagging question that everybody has about hillary clinton -- does she follow the rules? does she think that the rules that apply to me applied her? a lot of people do not think that is the case. if the single most political person in america goes up against a bombastic bullion there who says crazy things and promises to blow up politics as usual, [indiscernible] host: priscilla, republican. go ahead. mr. reid just heard

when he mentioned bernie sanders. i have been watching the caucus thing and have never seen something like that before, i heard one of the guys from fox or cnn ask one of the kids at the college did he know it socialism was? probablyi don't know, has to do with social security or medicare. i was just amazed. most of these college kids, these people voting for bernie sanders, i don't think they know what socialism is. i am a person of color, born again christian, very conservative, and i love my country. andearn about socialists socialism, communism, and we had to get under the desk just for practice because we were expecting russia to attack us, usually the communist our going

to attack us. i don't understand how americans can even contemplate taken this a socialist country. host: who is your candidate? caller: donald trump. guest: i actually do understand how the thought process that leads -- i think it is ironic that priscilla is a trunk folder and perplexed by -- a trump supporter and perplexed by bernie sanders parried the topic is, i hate politics, and here's someone on the right who can do that and someone on the left it can do that. whatever your political leanings, that is the way you will go. give a talk to a group of republicans, i always say, if you think president untilis a socialist, wait you see bernie sanders, who is an actual socialist? he has a pretty liberal record in the senate and not the most

liberal record of any senator who was running, largely because he votes with gun right supports. that howard dean used to be on the board of the nra and they supported him when he was running for governor of vermont and they have always been ok with sanders, probably because they know they cannot be bernie sanders in vermont, but he is not like traditional socialist as you would think of coming out of the soviet union or something like that. i sort of wonder whether or not republicans have used the word socialism so much against president obama over the last seven years that it sort of lost some of the steam. well, democratic voters think it is just republicans kind of socialist or something like that. madison heights, michigan, david is a democrat watching us there. caller: hi.

thank you particular call. i am very glad that donald trump did lose. he guaranteed a win, and i think his campaign, the song should be from the beatles "i am a loser." dealing with the terrible republican governor that has poisoned the people that he serves, and i think that bernie sanders being a socialist , quote unquote, i am glad hillary ticket. powered be glad with bernie sanders also. it is better than being a trump,st like donald that is why god america who loves him so much. all you trump supporters out there, you would vote for a communist. donald trump is not supposed to be using a dell -- adele. britishman for the

power battle queen reacting to donald trump's use of such hits such as "rolling in the deep," and "sky fall." they say they have not given him permission to use her music for political campaigns. guest: the music in a political campaign is so dangerous. first of all, candidates never listen to the lyrics because everybody always plays on in the usa and they don't understand it is an anti-vietnam war ballot. it's like, guys, listen to the music, but the one candidate who has listened to the music and put out what i thought has been the best ad only because i am simon and garfunkel fan, but with the use of simon and and i thought it was a great ad. iowa andrly founded in new hampshire because there were no people of color until about the second half when the

filmmaker must've realized, we have had diversity here. again, the music is always a treacherous path. host: let's go to the republican side and talk about jeb bush's candidacy. here is the headline, jeb bush $2884 per iowa vote any received 5165 votes in iowa and came in sixth place. guest: to be fair, his campaign did not spend that money but his super pac money comes of the super pac could've literally written a check for $1000 to every i went -- iowan republican. here we are in the agent super pac spending and for all of those worried about citizens those big new secret money flowing into politics, i would point out that president obama won reelection in 2012 with the help of the super pac. i don't think money played a

huge role in 2014, that was the republican wave coming anyway. here we are in 2016, and the wealthiest candidate, who had raised $100 million, who was supposed to have raised so much money that everyone was scared to run, cayman six and -- came in sixth and not looking too good to new hampshire. just crunched the numbers on how much every candidate raised yesterday, raised before quarter of the year, and ted cruz raced about $20 million, ben carson raised about $20 million, and i million or was 16 something like that and jeb bush -- it is a great quarter for maybe 2000, but it is clear that not only has bush's money not won him votes, but the spigot is closing fast. host: is it going elsewhere? guest: apparently.

i have not crunched the number of donors who have given to both, but there is a fascinating split from the donor class about who is next. -- this campaign is such a great illustration of the pillars of the republican party and there is the donor class, which writes the checks, the consultant class that is the professional who get republicans elected, the ideological class, the weekly standard and the national beer and people who think about the ideology of the republican party, and the actual class, people who vote. this particular election, it is clear that the activist class is the one that matters. host: that is what ted cruz said in his speech last night. sandy in california, independent. caller: hi! umm, umm, umm,,

registered toa anyway,the early 20's, she was republican -- i am not or independentt something like that. i just really feel sorry for heidi cruz. you know? host: why is that, sandy? caller: well, i don't think she is being treated right by ted. host: i'm not sure where you are going with that, sandy, but heidi cruise was campaigning just as hard as her husband. guest: and she is a political person. she has also been campaigning

will beyond iowa. i saw a clip the other day of missouri,gning in which does not have a primary for a while, but that is the benefit of having a really talented political spouse like heidi cruz. the ability to have the candidate in two places at once, if you will. in 2008, you can recall bill clinton sort of being able to rest on the stump and michelle obama did a great job campaigning for her husband and some of the early states. this time around, heidi cruz has probably been the most outspoken , the most visible spouse on the campaign trail. host: brenda in florida on the line for republicans. i just want to say i will probably vote for trump. it would be great to see trump run against bernie sanders

because that would be capitalism against socialism. host: [laughter] sorry, brenda. guest: that would be an incredible race. capitalismt be here -- let's be clear, donald trump is no free market capitalist. he is all about messing with the markets, especially in things like trade deals. he wants to put a bunch of terrorists on some of the international goods coming in, which is not free-market principle. a fascinating contrast of perhaps the two most different people you can imagine running for in the highest office in the land. that being said, every four years, there are always those people who say something to the effect of, well, it so and so to canada,ill move and i think you'd have a lot of people on both sides of that. host: missouri, delano, democrat? i can articulate

this problem, as an 83-year-old korean vet, i have two elephants congress, walmart -- not walmart, but that is another problem -- our federal reserve, that is what bernie sanders is talking about, and our stock market. trading,does insider that is what martha stewart went to prison for. here is the other thing, there is poured out one million undocumented workers in las vegas taking up jobs, they come in with no inspection, health inspection or nothing. that is where i agree with donald trump. he is the only guy who was that building the wall, stopping the flow of illegals coming into the country. stools ofback to the the republican party. there is a fascinating

disconnect that we don't talk about enough on the immigration issue. the activist class feels a lot does, too many people are coming over the borders, they're taking the jobs, things like that, and then not reallye -- consultant -- but the chamber of commerce, is this. i am from washington state originally, and in washington a couple of years ago, you never see an immigration hardliner come out of washington state because a few years ago, 40% of the largest apple crop stayed on the trees because they were not enough workers to pick the apples, at the height of the has aion, immigration benefit for business. this is why the chamber of commerce clause is interested in h1v visas and confidence of reform because the employers

need, in places like las vegas and washington state, and elsewhere, need workers. there is a divide within the republican class, at least in iowa, only 9% of people who said immigration was the most important, voted for marco rubio. independent stan, caller. caller: good morning. i think right off the bat that trump is my man and bernie is my man. they could do it if they wanted to. just get both those men out there and vote for president, vice president, and i tell you what. i have never seen such an archaic way of browbeating, their bullying, their talk to go to the to other side. when we get in the voting booth

in texas, nobody messes with you. you, if youe ask have participated in the caucus, do you think anybody could sway you? guest: no -- caller: no. guest: iowans are very tough. host: even coin tosses. guest: i was not aware of that until just now. host: they said that is allowed if there is a tie to do a coin toss. guest: tyler caucus is fascinating. i was out there couple years ago and that actually watched one. -- the iowa caucus is fascinating. i was out there a couple of years ago and actually got to watch one. it's not something that happens a lot in the west, south, but it and part off voting our democracy. every four years, iowa and new hampshire worry about their place in the nominating process. the fact that iowa went for ted will mollify a lot of

republican members of the republican national committee, the people a make a decision about who goes first and second, and things like that. i think if those republicans had seen donald trump win, this is the bio would have been in jeopardy by losing. host: i thought they were nervous about ted cruz as well guest:. they are nervous, perpetually nervous about whether or not they will be able to keep this process. somethingther lend like $10 million to the state economy or $100 million, depending on the economist, but in the general scheme of things, not a huge part of the gdp. host: mickey in connecticut, a republican. caller: thank you for taking my call. year registered democrat who just turned republican because of donald trump. the sickly, i have big issues. i like some of the other republican candidates, ben

carson, it is not about race, it is about creating full-time jobs. i have been out of work for two years. country,fense for our the stopping of illegal immigration, i want to protect our second amendment rights. i did not like president obama's deal with iran, you don't give billions of dollars to a terrorist nation and letting go all these terrorists out of guantanamo, and then hillary, hillary said after she not that she won in iowa, the way i believe america should be, what does that mean? what is her idea of what america should be? that scares me. host: ok, who are donald trump supporters and what does that mean in a general election? guest: donald trump supporters are a fascinating group of people. they are republicans who hate their own party, and there are a

significant number of those, by the way. the small side, if you have ever seen gallup with the manual survey where they talk about who is registered to vote with either parties, independents are at an all-time high and a lot are conservative voters, photo republican but calling themselves independents because they think the republican party has gone too far to the left. those are some of donald trump's supporters. others are people like mickey. people who feel economically detached, feel like their country is moving ahead without the recovery probably left them behind. there are a lot of those people. they are very real feelings and orlings that a lot of people that are motivating people to get involved in politics in the way they have not before. the real question is, does that involvement extend beyond just showing up by the c-span or putting a bumper sticker on their car is something like that? host: buying a hat.

guest: you have to love the hat. you spend like -- he's been like one dollar of every six dollar on campaign hats, crazy, but good for him. does that extend to voting, knocking on your door and trying to convince your neighbor to vote for donald trump? ofthe caucuses last night the people who said they were for a trump and chewing at the mega rallies, they did not end up voting for him. is that mean he is a paper tiger? not quite yet. let's watch other primaries evolve, but in the long run, donald trump supporters had the ance to show up and they did not. host: the next one in new hampshire on february 9. let me show you the latest over the attention goes after. february 20, democrats voting in nevada, republicans in south carolina and on the bright 23rd, republicans in nevada will vote the 27th, top carolinian

democrats. on march 1, talk about march 1. guest: it is a busy day. super tuesday, the first day -- i mentioned by the way that the rnc and dnc are the two groups that set the calendar. they can do things like section if they holdtates contest earlier, so march 1 is the first day that every state is allowed to hold her contest if they want to. those states that will hold their contest have or who allocate the delegates, which gets 25%t if ted cruz and everybody else gets 20%, ted cruz gets 25% of the delegates, whereas in later states -- there are some states where that's really 5% can get you 100, when not take all contest, but these are largely states that will do well for conservatives. they are states that typically

elect conservative candidates statesublican primaries, like alabama, mississippi, georgia, they call them the fcc primary states. they all got together and decided to become a little more important. wyoming, massachusetts, other states like that will have a contest that day. a lot of delegates are available. host: and march 15? march 15 is the first day that states can hold win or take all collections, and florida will be the win or take all contest. this goes to marco rubio's path of the white house. he is banking a winning florida. you only need a small plurality to win the state and then you get 100% of the delegates. i have not seen a poll that shows marco rubio leading.

i think it will have jeb bush and marco rubio leading donald trump and ted cruz. host: jane is a democrat. welcome to the conversation with reid wilson. caller:hi, the conversation has gone a little passive sense i called thing, but one of the things -- i called in because everybody was talking about socialists and thinking about ago as they work 100 years in an entirely different world. i am just wondering when, if ever, the media will stop just and doames of things their research and learn what it means. if you go the democratic socialist countries like in scandinavia, you see people taken care of, students being able to study, you see people who are nicely dressed and have enough money to go and buy food, etc., etc. it does not mean they are not democratic and holding democratic elections. nobody seems to talk about those

things. jane, are you concerned, as a democrat, that if bernie sanders was the nominee, republicans would be able to frame -- caller: no, i am for bernie sanders. i am going to turn 71 next week, and a democrat at age 71 handing out [indiscernible] i have always considered myself democrat. host: all right. wast: my favorite teacher from that part of california. sorry, j, but that point that you raise about the labels that we all use, bernie sanders called himself a democratic socialist. it is not likely invented the title. when bernie sanders ran for his first office in for a model in 1980, he ran as a socialist. he was not democrat or republican but a socialist. title that using the they give us. host: in tennessee, independent.

caller: hi, folks. host: morning. caller: thank you for your talk. it is really great and i have learned a lot. i wanted -- i am a bernie supporter -- i wanted to make a point about the similarities and bernieald trump sanders, from what i can see. it is interesting that bernie sanders, both independent types, and when you showed that map of mountainsome of those areas, it is interesting that geographically, the mountain areas are going for trump and sanders. one of the big dynamics of this election is the independents. you talk about bernie getting the youth vote, but he is also getting a lot of independents. trump is getting a lot of

independents as well. it seems to me that all of this, one of the reasons all of this has happened, is that we are not getting the change that obama promised. people -- obama is a great politician, but it is hard -- you try to be in the commentator, and trump and bernie are not the commentators accomodators. guest: the president tried to engage with congress a little bit, a lot of folks on capitol hill will say he did not try hard enough, but if a bernie sanders or donald trump comes to washington, there is still probably going to be republican house of representatives and, if sanders wins, a democratic senate. i cannot imagine a scenario where sanders would win and the democrats would not take back have aate, so, we will

divided government, and it does not always work so well when you have somebody in the white house who was amending they get it their way because there are 535 people at their who get a say in the things, too. republican. dan, good morning. caller: good morning, greta. good morning to you, reid. aloha, as i like to say. it was interesting. someone in the media interviewed a young millennial and asked her what the socialist was, and she responded, someone who believes in social media. guest: that is awesome. [laughter] caller: yeah, and they were having a big laugh about in the media when they were talking about this person interviewed. isng forward, my problem some of the voter fraud in the registration issues we have.

during the democratic caucus, there was a lady who was named josie and she stood up or took up a person from the audience there who responded, an older male, to the 33 illegals that had been found in the process of voting during this caucus. she said -- well, if they found about it and prosecuted later for voter fraud -- what system is in place when we had 33 people voting and there is no vetting process for them? guest: first of all, i do not know about this particular precinct or anything like that. the second thing, let's remember oft this quote process choosing a nominee is not an

election in the way that we think of elections. the caucuses are not run by the ofte of iowa, the secretary state, but by the iowa democratic and republican parties, which means you can up voting as much as you want. in theties themselves california davis v. democratic party or whatever, whichever way it is, that the parties themselves have what they called the first amendment right of association and they get to set up the process. that means that if the democratic party once to allow only left-handed people to vote, then they can do that. the supreme court says they can. host: explain the caucusing for the democrats in iowa versus how their declared the winner and the delegates versus republicans? guest: it is a little confusing because the process did not end last night in iowa.

it will continue for months down the road until the 40 delegates they sent to the convention and they are elected at the state convention, so you start with the precinct caucuses last night, then the people who are elected delegates, joe schmoe, bernie sanders delegate, bob smith, the hillary clinton delegate, move on to a county convention, at which all of the delegates from the precinct come together, they elected delegates to the congressional district conventions, and then from the congressional district on to the state district, they essentially narrowed the field of delegates down. host: how can the democratic party declared hillary clinton the winner? guest: because she won the eloquent -- delegate equivalents, the people who go in the next. host: she won more of them? guest: more of them, and by the way, they still have to show up at the conventional and state

districts. back in 2008, president obama, then senator obama, b john edwards and hillary clinton in the iowa caucuses, and he was supposed to get one more delicate than edwards and two edwardsn clinton, a, people and clinton people dropped off. i the end, before clinton had dropped out, when he got to the convention, obama had a nine or 10 delegate advantage because his people had stuck through the contest. even if clinton wins, let's call tied as off they are last night, you can still see bernie sanders winning the delegates out of iowa by 10 or 15 delegates because maybe this people show up or vice versa. host: and on the republican side? guest: the votes that were cast last night will go towards electing delegates, but instead

of caucusing and electing a delegate to the next level and measured support that way, the republicans measured their support like a secret ballot, so everybody put their choice into a hat and they pulled the ballots. that is why you see ted cruz when he went 20 something -- host: 28%. guest: thousands of votes versus hillary clinton, they are not counting the same thing. host: i hope that clears it up for some guest: -- in line it probably makes it more confusing. host: what are you watching for in new hampshire? guest: first of all, is losing in iowa and having these inevitability's, is that going to send donald trump's poll numbers crippling? i suspect it might. i suspect they will not be as a in new hampshire tomorrow as they were yesterday or the day before. on the democratic side, it could be anything to make up what

looks like a significant gap significant deficit in bernie sanders. the last poll had him up by a big margin. new hampshire is a state that is prone to those big margins. senator kelly had more than 62% of the vote and it is a tough race this year. can hillary clinton close that gap or is she going to give up and say, bernie sanders gets to have new hampshire, and his neighboring state, and i will move on to south carolina or she has an advantage? host: the house is gaveling in. go to morningconsult.com to sign up for all the news from morning consult