not now at odds with each other keeping with presidential process aware watching in real time as a major political party implodes on itself. >> we covered marco rubio who said the candidacy of donald trump remained scary. over over the weekend the endorsement by another supporter of donald trump. are some of of the establishment now admitted that trump is the republican nominee? >> the session and oarsman of trump is significant because sessions is the heart and soul of the populace right within the republican party. so hardliner in trade and immigration, he is very much in line with trump's own position. more striking was the recent endorsement of new jersey governor chris christie of trump. he is one of several major establishment figures that is gravitating towards trump. he question for many top

republicans right now is how to handle the trump phenomenon. some states the future of the party and they might as well get behind it, understand it and even support trump. others say it will tear the party of part if trump wins the nomination. like centered rubio who i covered here today he has vowed to fight until the end of the nomination process to try to stop trump. as it sitting u.s. senator said he would not back trump. it is just a brawl that is unlike anything i have seen. >> and with rubio's super pack out late today who is using the work of donald trump in his interview yesterday on cnn, the fact that donald trump would not refute the endorsement of david duke and talk about him as a former grand wizard of the kkk, trump said he has disavowed his with david duke but has the

damage been done? >> he has been the teflon candidate for nearly a year. ever since he started flirting with the put presidential bid last spring. he has said so many things that would usually do my national candidate me he has not only survived but thrived. trump has insisted that he disavowed duke at a news conference and will continue but since he wavered on sunday some establishment saw an opportunity to attack trump as someone who's far too close to racist elements and former kkk leaders like david duke. it just does not seem to be sticking to this on conventional candidate. >> let's talk about tomorrow and march fifteenth. if the polls are accurate, ted cruz will win his home state of texas but in

florida early polling showing rubio is way behind candidates including donald trump. if senator rubio does not win his home state does that mean he is out of this race? >> likely means he is in a very difficult position. rubio, people believe that he can accumulate enough delegates to go on to the convention but rubio has to win some states. the problem for rubio and cruise is that they're both countering each other. there is a thought in the cruise camp that if cruise wins texas he will stay in the race and fight on and rubio if he wins florida will do the same. they both have not been able to storm forward and assert themselves as the chief trump -- i think the spotlight is on cruise. he has to win taxes and by more than just a few points. >> where does that put john k-6 who has been spending his time in massachusetts and vermont

hoping to pick up some wins there tomorrow. >> a case it candidacy got a jolt out of new hampshire ever since then it has floated away. john k-6 is putting all of his chips on his home state of ohio. the pathway is that if rubio is some way unable to win florida but k-6 finds a way, he could find a way for the party senator that he is more viable and rubio has not been able to do so if that's the way it unfolds it is all these different candidates does the senate leader mitch mcconnell look at this with some sense of alarm because he has such a narrow majority in the number of key states where

republican senators are in tough reelection battles the math is looking more gloomy by the day, especially when you consider that many of the top incompetents are left in 2010, that is the tea party way in with those are states that are almost glue now in a presidential election year when democratic turnout is much higher than without that others could survive and whether a trump nomination that has created a lot of tension they said if trump doesn't move forward the gop either has to disavow him or the candidates may try to adopt some of his

way, his position on trade, to shy away from controversy. >> and finally to ask you about to the word you use the implosion over donald trump's candidacy,'s candidacy, how does that come about implosion means means a collapse in word. a claps upon itself. when you look at the republican party, it's not exploding, it's not going everywhere and having collateral damage across the country and across different parties, what you see is a civil war implosion. all of the structures that have been built since george w. bush have been president during the obama era this kind of keeping the basic pay but also stoking the republican to get turnout in

2010 and 2015, a solid relationship between the grassroots and the establishment, that is all flaking apart. it is imploding. that is what we are watching now is what we are watching now as trump moves forward and everyone else seems to be reacting. >> more details online at washington post.com. robert costa thank you for being with us. >> thank you. >> on the second panel of the american university's latino republican affairs -- we get it closer look. this is one hour ten minutes. [inaudible] were going to get started. >> my name is matt, i'm a faculty member in the government department at eight you. i've occasionally done research in this area, as part of the panel last year when we did it

and now we have come back to help assist as moderator. i want to say thanks to eric and jim as the opportunity. want to thank the panelists who are very excited and knowledgeable people. they all make me feel like i'm not busy enough trying to do things. it's nice to have them here. they know a lot more than i do. this panel is the democrats and latino advantage, ronald reagan famously claimed it that his latinos are republicans they just and realize it. so let me introduce the panelists. oh start with matt who is cofounder of managing partner of polling and research firm which is a polling from capturing public opinion and behavior for latino respondents.

is also professor political science at ucla. he also has three books, number of articles and so forth. we also have with us maria who were specific to the organization. her role is the vice president of politics a national campaign. her portfolio includes developing voter registration policy and strategy. she is also an alumnus of the hispanic caucus institute and she participated with our women in politics institute at american university. finally, we're going to have janet hernandez come visit us

we're said she hasn't been able to come but we are pleased that she has been replaced who is the deputy vice president of research and education. she oversees oversees the organizations work on immigration and efforts to expand engagement civic life. what i want to do is open the floor to them, each in the order i introduced and let them have a few minutes to make some points and then i will ask a question or two and then we will turn the floor over to the public. thank you. >> thank you. as a cross between of pollster and a professor i have an extensive amount of data for you to look at.

i thought it would be easier if i went through a few of why think it is important some issues, and how we got to where we are now. in looking at the last few election cycles and what that meant for the latino community. let me start by motivating with this bipolar 2012 look at the headline in summer 2012, this is new york times piece that says obama faces frustrating estate hispanic elected. that was the case in summer of 2012. there's about 400,000 deportation per year during his term and this is making latinos upset. something that jim mentioned in his opening panel and this was in fact the case. we found in a poll that 41% of hispanics were less of these yesterday about

president obama, 19% 19% more. there is a deficit there in the summer of 2012. the article goes on to say that he had promised to tackle this issue in his first term. in the first year of his first term and he had not done it. so 54% of hispanics agreed that obama had not pushed hard enough to get immigration reform done. i have a quote in this article this is something i use all the time i motivating and here she is sitting in the panel. you had a lot of people this is warning, it may be hard to process late turnout and what she said it's people are saying what gives? i i remember when i read this and i thought that's exactly what she would've said. people are quite upset. 53% of hispanics had said that after three years they were less excited about president obama, only 30% were more excited.

finally the article concludes that there were groups of students doing siddons and campaign offices. this was in summer 2012. this is not the image you want to student sitting in your office doing citizens. this was the headline on election day, latino voters sweep obama and office. record latino turnout. we had a very sharp change in those last four months or so of the election 2012. went to try to grapple with what explains this turnaround. here's president obama given remarks on his immigration policy, here he is signing the order. there's dreamers respond during they had a rally on the front of

the white house saying thank you for making a dream come true. there is an overwhelming reaction in 2012 to that leadership that obama showed. we saw this moment looked at some actual date of the 2,082,012 election. so i compared what was the key motivating factor of 2008 was the key motivating factor of 2012 using 22 data sets of latino photos side-by-side. you can see on the bottom we have a variety of different policy issues. the economy, the war, healthcare, generic outreach, what really changed between 2,002,012 was those latinos who felt strongly about immigration policy were the most likely, 16% more likely to vote for him which is a key ingredient 2012. in 2008 other issues like the economy, the iraq war, healthcare and other things were more important. immigration of all important was lower. there is a big increase in 2012 for that issue.

it became a mobilizing issue 2012, not only mobilize to the mobilize the terms of the vote but also the decision to vote. one of the key variables, someone asked a question about what her databases, you look at the actual official vote history, people who said they are very upset about governor romney's immigration policy roma stating points more likely to vote. you had a bigger affected the education which is a strong motivating factor. going the lowest education to the highest education there ten points more likely to cast a ballot. the thing romney wasn't that bad he was bad on immigration, was 18 points. this was happening 2012. buys that the case? in the polling we're doing in 2012 about 12 about two thirds of latino voters, not just those

who are affected day-to-day in terms of news coverage, but the actual vote, two thirds two thirds of latino voters said they first personally known undocumented worker. and one third say it's someone in their family. it may be their parent, could be an answer uncle, grandparents or other family member. could be a brother sister. but one third have someone in their family. the reason i think this is such a mobilizing issue is not because it shows up as the number one issue. there was a couple of kernels of truth in that morning panel. that is latinos do care about a variety of issues. the issues. the reason is and i want you to think back to the senate election in missouri in 2010 when a candidate todd akin was running for senate. he had a comment about legitimate race. these issues

issues about reproductive rights and choice, and those issues, these are not a single writing dominant issue for women voters in missouri, it's not very revolve there entire day-to-day life about. on an average day they probably don't think about those issues. some do. some do, most all. after he made that statement, very few people were looking at the candidate and the party the same way. it elevated the significance of such and the same thing happened with immigration rhetoric and latino community. i think glenn really made -- not only that but we have asked whether you know anyone was undocumented but anyone who's been detained or deported and it went up to 39%. they actually knew someone who had been detained or deported. so when you look at the academic

literature this is not just unique to latinos but across any group of voters. when they feel like their personal well-being is threatened they're much more likely to take part and participate in politics. writing about california, proposition 187 a lot of people have found this is what happened and started to mobilize and energize latinos. we sought in 2006 with immigration rally. we see issues of identity and solidarity increasing during this time. in addition i want to point you to another point in another topic of literature, to talk about emotion. emotion and politics. emotion suggests enthusiasm, fear, anger, play an important role in that plays an important role in your seen that on the republican side with the trump supporters. in the latino community there are few issues that can