unique to latinos but across any group of voters. when they feel like their personal well-being is threatened they're much more likely to take part and participate in politics. writing about california, proposition 187 a lot of people have found this is what happened and started to mobilize and energize latinos. we sought in 2006 with immigration rally. we see issues of identity and solidarity increasing during this time. in addition i want to point you to another point in another topic of literature, to talk about emotion. emotion and politics. emotion suggests enthusiasm, fear, anger, play an important role in that plays an important role in your seen that on the republican side with the trump supporters. in the latino community there are few issues that can evoke emotion more than immigration.

a show you some examples. >> how did this become an important issue, this is a famous picture, who knows what this is. los angeles immigration rally. excellent job. must be one of your students. in 2065 and 600,000 people rallying against hr 33 seven. eventually they turned into thousand 10, the momentum continued. this was an app put together by republican candidate in nevada. racializing the immigration issue, harry reid responded by leaning in very forcefully on the issue of bringing the panel together again.

now with maria was former reed staffer and campaigning with louise on behalf of immigrant rights. that puts us at the forefront it , it all came together with dock. that's how how got on the issue. i would be remiss not to mention it. but then we have these pictures. anyone read the shirts? obama deep ports parents. that's what we say about emotion, this is an issue people are passionate about you don't see rallies about this about changing the tax code. so this was in 2013 and 13 and 2014 after the election that obama won. he said the continue pressor, they she stayed in the spotlight and obama came and gave another speech in the east wing. he passes what is now known as

adopt the -- dap pa. in november 2014 if you are latino democrat you had a 64% of approving the president. party identification should be driving the way you view the president. if you did not care about -- again this was more important and i'm model then party identification with the president's position on on these issues. the immigration issue has not been resolved, deportations are continuing, reference made to this earlier. the fifth circuit is split and put it on hold so candidates are waning. were

hearing the presidential candidates talk about it at the republican debate on thursday. all of the candidates talked about how they would be repealing it including rubio he said i don't know how much more clear it can be about this. they used his previous statements in spanish. he will repeal it on the first day. now the supreme court has agreed to take this up. were going to have a decision in the summer of 2016. in the heat of the election people, the court will tell us whether these parents are eligible for deportation or whether they can stand have work permits. and then of course we have trump. let me conclude with a forecast of 2016 and then we'll take questions and comments towards the end. this is a comparison to 2012 and 2015. in pink is what latinos think about the republican party when

romney was the nominee. romney's major problem was people thought he did not care. 56% of latino said romney doesn't care. now when we we asked the same question, november of 2015 these people have transitioned down here to now think in the republican party is hostile towards latinos. romney which prompted the autopsy reflection, we need to do better was because he was pushing a huge percentage of people here. now they're pushing them down here into dangerous territory. this is the the last thing to show you. we are on the verge possibly of one of the largest latino turnouts in american history, not just because of what was said earlier butter demographics getting bigger, because the emotion that's involved this

year. it takes two ingredients, ingredients, takes anger which i talked about earlier and we saw that this site. does does trump statements make you more favorable, less favorable to the gop. then it takes something to vote for. something to vote in favor of. you don't just shop and vote, you cast, you cast your ballot for a candidate, you're not just going and getting counted. we think there's an alignment here if clinton commits to renewing and go forward more latino say they will be enthusiastic. i think it creates an opportunity. we'll have to wait and see what the civic groups to in terms of continuing. a rich opportunity for latinos. thank you. i will will yield the rest of my time to my colleagues. >> thank you mac.

now to bring up maria. >> my name is maria i like to mention that i'm here on a nonpartisan capacity. >> at a glance and matt already read us through an important numbers where we have always centered our strategies and our work the latinos have been around for 11 years in the forefront of our work has been the young latinos. young latinos on average the median age is 27. a lot of lot of our young people are finally aging into the electorate and we need, we was known we need to find them where they are.

largely english-language and online. that's what what i will run you through and how we locate young latinos and whites important. why and much of what we say and send resonate differently than a partisan message. also i should also add that young latinos for the first time are going to make up nearly half of the latino electorates. a lot of folks are commenting on that now. young latinos where they can ago, we tend we tend to have a higher share, so were going to tell you our best moc is opportunity. >> we have ice been very strong on digital, our presidency when we're starting out it's a great way to reach young people. we've learned over learned over the years it's been an effective way to mobilize young people.

young latinos are early adapters, frequent users and no other communities are catching up. certainly we have been at the forefront of digital use. our influence on mine, you can read the numbers yourself, one of the things when people look at this you say will so what? what is a matter that latino have a strong influence online. because young latinos we realize that the mobilization doesn't stop there. the mobilization what we start here, we start the conversation here that we take it to the ground. were saying hey, young latina in nevada or colorado, we need you to go and register voters in texas. we need you to register voters in nevada, we need you to shop to a rally where hosting because there's anti- immigrant

xenophobia going on. we can largely turn our audience online and get them on the ground somewhere within 24 hours. we've done that with after the latin grammys when they put down the banner that said latinos will not vote for races. we turn that around in a day to get young people in texas to register photos. it's just one example of why we are strong be all glory could translate to votes on the ground. this is our key target states for the 2016 race. race. will be doing voter engagement programs which is college campuses, music festivals, concerts. will also be a southwest unveiling one of our new porter apps that is mostly for field organizers. we are really excited about it and about going into training my political training is from nevada. nevada is going to be a large community for us. we also

think it's important to be in states where perhaps there's not battleground states. maybe they're not getting as much love from the campaigns like california or texas. we think it's important to be in those deep rooted long-standing latino communities as well. because of nevada and i play favorites we have 328,000 eligible. more than a third are young latinos. want to not only uplift the work of local partners and young people there'll already but also uplift young latinos were not at the table, and immigration is huge motivator and a prime motivator for most of our families. we still see a drop-off drop off in voter mobilization efforts. we want to look at who are the young latinos that are not be moved by the message of immigration or the tragedy of the broken system. how do we get them to get engaged. our ideas are largely centered

through cultural and artistic touch points so that when you are at a concert in san antonio and you walk by our table and you see our literature, again it's with the young latino at the forefront. we just lost a concert partnership because we know young people and their families will go to our concert. we want -- were really part of this partnership and glad that she's involved. were going to be a really different artist throughout the year. we're going to be standing sending out some college programs and we'll continue our marketing leadership and development which is through our leadership conference that

brings industry leaders in all areas, not just advocacy but tech, business, academic, and others. there is my contact information. also just want to say and i'm happy to take questions, i want to share with your work because i think it's important. i come from electoral politics before this so i say that with that in mind that unless you have leaders that are one-off, really empowering our community there is no way that we are going to build long-term latino political infrastructure if not for other long-standing organizations that have done incredible work. so we invite you to learn about our work, join us, i'm happy to be here [applause]. >> thank you maria. let's bring up our final speaker.

>> hello everybody. the funny thing you'll notice, this is if you're paying attention that matt and i have worked together for so long that we use the same generic powerpoint. [laughter] format. i was laughing when i saw his covers lie. on a couple of quick things. i agree with maria, matt covered a lot of stuff so it gives me the freedom to go into other things. here's one thing that is interesting, latinos in 2012 made headlines and he saw some of those from matt's article, there is a slew of those headlines, even the noisiest headline came from the republican side, the need to embark on any strategy, figure

out how to bring latinos into the party. so the ironic thing about where latinos find themselves in 2016 is even though we finally got funded to understand the role that latinos play in the american political landscape, parties understand that these voters are a factor in the winning equation for the white house and a growing number of state and local need races. in the philanthropic world, the political world people understand the importance of voter registration. one of the ironies is that if you look at the strategy of the republican side it does not seem like they have the memo. if you look at the level of investment in actually getting voter registration to virtual community you'd also think in the philanthropic community are people who are engaging that space, they also don't get that now. among latino organization there is a sense that the ledger books

reflect that. there's less and investment on latino voter registration going on right now. there was on previous years. i'm not saying only latinos are the ones that you latino voter registration but i think having an understanding with the community is important to some. i would say it's also important to anybody who really believes in for the people, and by the people, should include with the people. not just going to the people. so anyway with all of that as maria mentioned, the organization that we do not have a bone in the partisan fight other than our candidate is the latino voter because we believe bringing more latino voters into the state could potentially help regrow the middle ground that is

needed to make forward progress on a lot of policy issue, that is what we're trying to do, were trying to be as creative as we can. i do want to address a little about what democrats and republicans are doing in terms of this electorate. i think in many ways that summarizes it, i think this electorate was on 2012 is 12 is the best electric the gop is going to see if they remain on its current track. for democrats, while the republican party in many ways have ceded the ground, democrats have not necessarily moved in full force to try to seal the deal. in some ways latinas continue to see being bypassed by one party or by being neglected by another. even though that's not the rule,

but what are some of the reasons this happens? i think think with the latino community as with any good story people want to oversimplify to such an extent that often times we use things that are partially true to try to solidify or cements a big misconception. one of the examples is that in the political world, for many years and you can see some of that today when a candidate goes to speak the advice would be you can talk about immigration, that's the issue you have to talk about and that's it. it used to be also include things like bilingual education and things like that. if you you look at the polls for at least last 20 years you would see the top issues have consistently tended to be the economy and education. but then what happened, then someone from the other side would say oh that means latinos do not care about immigration therefore whatever your position

on immigration it doesn't matter, just talk about the economy which would also be wrong. and you saw mass very statistically sound modeling on that issue. so i think one of the reasons why you are seeing bernie sanders message gain traction is because he's talking about an issue that is incredibly important to the latino community. also because on immigration there is less daylight between the candidates on the democratic side. on the other hands on the republican side, even if you had the most brilliant 100% latino support, messaging and narrative latinos have learned to see immigration as a proxy for how the candidate speaking about that issue regards their community.

let's face it whenever we hear the toxic narrative on immigration it tends to be thin veneer to see anxiety about the latino community. it makes sense that latinos by the same token interpreted that way. perhaps even though every election season we end up putting the same point forward it would be useful if it leaves the basics got settled. that i would say is that latinos care about the economy and education. but but immigration is a defining, energizing issue. the vast majority of latinos are actually united states citizens. of those under 18 is about 18% who are united states citizens. so for some people who make feel that immigration and closing the

wall is going to prevents latino growth in the united states, the statistics would say otherwise. we do have a number of issues that create a potential for unity and how we interpret candidates and parties. we do not believe that demography is destiny, that's why were doing the work we do. lastly because it beat keeps coming in the context of reviewing crews let me make it absolutely clear for the record, cruz and rubio are latino. not i don't think any latino are going to dispute that, i think the problem is that someone interpreted that differently. the latino does not community make it nor do you have to be

latino to be part of the community. the last thing i would say which i think sometime democratics would like to believe an anti- immigrant forces in the republican party there is no democratic gene in the latino dna. the biggest determinant of how a latino vote, voter votes is you are talking about republicans is what republicans do, latino voters want a choice. i would say that republicans are their own worst enemy and democrats best friend. we hope that that changes. those are the main thanks, matt has gone over the numbers but i think that one of the numbers, even though people continue to talk about whether the number of latinos is small or big is that

between 2,002,012, the number of latinos casting a ballot grew by 89%. compared to 38% for african-americans that decreases 2% for white voters. in is that growth rate that has people paying attention. obviously obviously we talked about a number of people that are eligible to vote but to note specifically to register, voter registration continues to be an essential element to fill the magnitude of latino voters. there's sometimes too much data. what i'm trying to show is that we go into 2016, latinos are going to be essentials in a number of battleground states and you all know what those are. last but not least, the formula

to a mock support from a voter is not rocket science. unique candidates matter and those candidates building a relationship with that community and ease within that community. the issues matter, so today have skin in the game and munich full outreach is essential. folks have mentioned that it's a perfect playbook for the candidate of any candidate to try to gain latino support the same way in colorado would be an example of what not to do, or what not to neglect. so last but not least, i would say for our part to really unlock that potential we are trying to make sure that yes people are registered and they show up on election day but it's really about what happens the day after is swelling and who is going to hold those electives

accountable so the policies they advance continue to get the community to feel that something gives. going back to that quote. to do that one of the things as maria said were trying a lot of different things, in 2012 we ran ran the largest nonpartisan voter registration operation in florida, we are getting it ready and starting it next week we are doing a number of different things because we have a big pool of voters, we need to figure out how to get to our breakthrough point. we are working with high school pilot project because many of our kids are still not going to college and we want to make sure they have enough time to register. the couple of other tests, operator -assisted -assisted molecules as well as online, you

heard about latinos who are millennial's you know that we are young community. we are also also going to be a large% or segments of generation comes next, whatever it is called millennial two-point oh or whatever. to meet people where they are we created voter registration app so we can bring it to our hands to make sure that people have a chance to express their voice for which whichever party convinces them. [applause]. >> i like to express solidarity with two of our presenters with the notion that once you find a powerpoint scheme that works you stick to it. it makes a lot of sense. i don't want asked to many questions myself, i do have a

few questions to get the ball rolling. last time we did this i was on the panel i have a 1-year-old and four-year-old and so my years are a blur at this point, it was one of those years in janel's book democracy promise back in 2006 had among other things one of the main arguments was that both political parties, the democrats and republicans were failing to reach out organizationally to immigrant communities latinos were a big part of it. so the first question i want to ask is, that was ten years ago, it sounds like there's been a lot of change but i'd like to hear them describe what they think is the democratic party specifically doing now.

is the premise accurate, secondly, what is different now in terms of what formal democratic party organization is doing to reach out? >> i'll start with that, i think the climate has really changed to how both parties lean into this issue or don't. i was on the 2010 race, is doing latino political work in northern nevada. it was really clear that from the leadership down there was an appetite to say to people hey, this is is an issue for toss, these are families. someone folks would try to shame senator reid at the time and not taking a favorable position on the trail for immigrant families, he did not walk into that. he went the other way. you can look at that say that was great in that moment, but really bad outreach was not just

about a good reach it's about someone who is doing oftentimes campaigns of both sides will come knocking don tran on the door a little too late. for hard-to-reach communities much like ours with limited resources, limited strategies that just don't work. if you don't have folks on the ground who don't understand the community and their needs, or someone who is like myself who essential american heritage. i would say that is the investment in our community often comes a little too late. secondly it's not just about strong campaign strategy, it's about having a legitimate steward and champion of our policies which are the same for many americans. secondly that you have a outreach record that is long-standing, not just from the

current cycle. >> one thing i would add as a caveat, while i use hispanic and latino interchangeably, i do not not use latino and immigrant interchangeably. >> .. >> >> that there was no outrage to the latino community that all is why i did the a

comparison to the harry reid campaign not because he is a democrat but that is what you do to attract the voters. the positions never end you will still do not reach. >> so it can pain will say we have limited resources. we have to look for the equation to get us over the top. very enough. but even if you look at latino voters highly likely put the levels of our reach from the party's is very low. less than 50% tended to get the our region and even lower from the republican party. cry with say it is lackluster overall and varies in is intense with

the battleground states but there is a lot of first-time voters with that data mining to create a profile of the habitual voters. >> something i found interesting and correct me if i misrepresent but one of the interesting things that pops up latino voters will mention the economy but it will pop out as he nervously the most number one predictor so specifically active think of the methodological reasons but as somebody with the foot in

the consulting world to say how do you translate this to people who are running campaigns? to read your description is right as it is mentioned as well doing paul lehigh -- polling we continue to see the economy comes in and is number one issue. so it continues to rate high like education has been a creeping up but with the rally to put its immigration higher on the issue but it still doesn't detract the people to say it is the number one issue.

but with those vote models that has the capacity to mobilize say you care about these issues with wage equality and other stuff but what isn't mobilizing people to take part are those issues that is the motion and anxiety and it supersedes the other issues with a much stronger dirty emotional connection to the electorate that the other issues are drier and it is hard to separate the emotion from the economy all candidates say the same thing to make the economy better. immigration is not the case they say the opposite. it becomes an issue where contrast is very clear to easily map their preferences.

since you have to read into the deep policy issues to see if 20 years down the road through the federal reserve approved the economy. with immigration they say single-handedly to provide work permits and legal status is very obvious that you can relate to or attached to. the way that immigration works that the issue could go way i strongly believe that after it is resolved there is a lot of truth to that opportunity report. at lot be as obvious as an issue but until then i don't

see it slipping away from the top package of issues but to have the most mobilizing effect more than any economic issue ever could cost. >> the story that emerges with mass presentation with public opinion the recipe to activate latino voters to turgor eight emotional response to engage consideration of identity. to me, that suggested by would give advice to a campaign shia to make latino's angry? at the risk of creating a false contrast that doesn't

sound like what you are doing with the organization so that message is positive so i felt would be interested to hear how you address that that to what extent to issues like anger and anxiety come into play? >> this is the great question, but we see that rebury aspirational we're not as young as jaded. [laughter] so there is an opportunity to cultivate that for worth thinking. also absolutely that is true but what we see as well there is still a huge dropoff of the electorate.

although immigration is a huge and does invoke that the motion there is still in american the doesn't hear what they need to hear or to have that access to go to be a voter. absolutely we believe that if we uplift young latinos who are often the leaders today are third generation even if not helping parents with language access but with college, their grandparents apply for social security benefits. they are that person that navigates complex institutions. and it did say crime to you transform that power into

the electorate and community building. with that positive empowerment and fun. the strategies are about their loved music kid culture they go see themselves as a political person but we opened the conversation to say we're jimmying out now talk about getting racially profiled on your way to school? >> it is very simple. it is not about making the ethnocentric appeal. if you look at what is happening with the republican primary you would save this year and anxiety works pretty good. in data as of other reasons politicians keep trying to

use those tactics over and over. they are very optimistic than does much as there is a clarity about the current environment where voting is inactive self-defense with what is it that we hope for? in what is the real america we try to build? i think some candidates but as a result of change but as much as the optimism drives you but the reality cannot this be pew is that is we have seen a very high intensity level where it too many candidates are all too

happy so in that environment that is what people will think what can i do? and in the context of the cree and paid trail -- campaign trail. but to be motivated by that messaging is very much about latino to see them that as a stand-alone i don't know why. >> i would like the floor to open. and first urinate or broad

a. >> katchis have two quick questions. do you have a voter program here this is an amazing? send also with or those the tina's is from the hateful messages you had towards new recruits were latinos who it is you're specifically doing? that i would say it hurt

pickens hampshire you with love to have one here if you were hoping but but to the so perfectly in the elaborate and already and she said very eloquently in a self-defense kind of way and with the other campaigns within the s&l was having him on the show there would is a large digital campaign of it really the whole thing student does have pushed back? >> having but that is the push back from those awful

things. >> them steading my minister in political communication. but let me see. i don't want to miss read -- but then to you will lead. >> data set was for 18 to in

reno because you know, there is a lot of work to we have to come together to say had. >> but to do that of we have to do that with good partners and people investing in error. but for us to pass that mitchell ma zero in the face you haven't identified still

exists a topic that turns for hidden boy to receive put to of attention and. ended turns out. end also the case they are coming off but then it is a young person issue not latino old. in the if they didn't get to

say none of this seems but they'll see why these make an important value in a buddy's life. in there is a stairstep pattern and until we had the draft there was an issue that creates massive church

when but most of those were not -- voting now will be an 28. >> but as more people will fall the before and after

was announced the shares there is a division per is this the neck that way you looked to end things that seem common sense is this stuff since the languages is

the message for latinos. >> we have time for a couple more. >> i am part of the class here. the afro latino community? and then to consider themselves part of a black but we wanted that to be intentional and often order for those latinos over and

it also is black lives matter come to live tried to uphold their work to free if it people with them to read don't think combative life-and-death him and to

test the wrath the drescher specific time they give it cover the most is immigration but in reality it isn't there as much as reception because have discovered. who pulled with civil rights

and social justice in addition to what is the. >> then is the of the extent

but there is renewed bid to read credit party the bill failed to deliver of this bill neck that question goes to the if you live he it has

to be talent and that notion are a significant part of community or staked and then they become blue but it -- it shows women democrat loses but over to another.

>> thinks to the pill in new

[inaudible conversations] id the gets what the candidates are spending in social security it and if they are where they going to do to save us? >> even though i feel is their important to get out and vote but the only way to voice opinions

[inaudible conversations] one. >> we need to stay on time with an opportunity to have the discussion after our panelists intervene it is also because this is one of the most value rooms on campus if you reserve that until 530 you need to be out because something else happens at six. we always follow this schedule but all the more reason this afternoon. for those who may not have been here when we opened and

a director of the center and pleased to be cosponsoring this together with the senate for congressional and presidential studies. i should mention when i introduced my colleague i did not realize there were copies available and there may still be i strongly recommended a thoughtful book about an issue that really matters of the polarization of american politics. and in that context this panel with is an aspect of the coming election in that may be linked to the phenomenon of polarization. and we will begin from a the

q research center in the latino attitudes to be enormously valuable. i am always happy to welcome him back. with those attitudes regarding immigration after marks' intervention i am pleased to welcome the governor of p.r. now has stockier washington. i should note before he was governor thought he was the commonwealth representative to the representative in in a variety of public service positions and i just found

out his great-grandfather had his law degree before and was affiliated with american and university. if we could not figure out when that affiliation happened and as say professor in a used part of government inland but including with those cuban-americans is very influential. in the familiar with the book that cannot last year

means with the book that comes out in six or eight weeks so with those swings states everyone is aware of the notion there are a number of states in which it will likely hinge those states by colorado virginia mexico with a head the latino population, and so how the latino vote may impact the swing states looking at the presidential or the senate level was well.

is another issue we thought was particularly interesting for this cycle is the role of the substantial migration to the mainland over the past several years in the possible impact this may have on the outcome of the election in the spring states and also perhaps beyond that is one of the wild cards resaw another is a change of u.s. policy to cuba to that extent is influenced by the republican party's commitment to a hard-line there is a lot of question if that is still the case but the question is

whether the electoral politics of cuba may have changed to be introduced by the obama administration to tilt things one way or another. there are fatah while kurds and there are an acceleration in the number of immigrants naturalizing in the interest to participate in the 2016 elections. will lot of uncertainty yeah of voter i.d. where turnout is important variable. there are a variety of different that are

far-fetched but could be significant when the migrants from central america it is possible in what would happen if there was a significant terrorist attack there is a lot of different wild cards in the panelist would get us started for a discussion. >> good afternoon. i hope i am not too repetitive from what came before. one. >> i want to talk about the ku research center we are

part of the ku research center we are a fact to take and make no recommendations for candidates. somebody may ask and what should they do? i don't know. that is on purpose. [laughter] so this last year we look at how the hispanic electorate is doing and you have heard conversation of 27 million or more will be 18 as a citizen. you will see young people was the biggest source of growth for the hispanic electorate that what will happen between 2012 and 2016. and other important source is naturalization.

perhaps even the accelerating source it is an estimate and projection. when we see that data. we argued from the work we're doing that there is the uptick of naturalization. there are 5.4 million hispanic adults in the country legally some are green card holders over 20 years they could be potential voters this year. an additional 130,000 are those who migrated to the united states off the

island. but florida is the top destination for the talk about immigration but 31 percent have not been to central florida but it is the biggest magnet although they go to other places like texas or new york committed kit pennsylvania but florida is getting the single largest part. some pass away not all young people. and there'll be 27.three hispanics eligible. but four agents more of our

naturalizing so that is an interesting different for that population. take about what the pundits are saying? >> with the presidential race in the governor's race in all the states according to the report were likely to be ending, of redwood is 14. five in virginia read just under with 5%. this is a population that is dispersing indeed been if

the numbers when it was 1.5% , but of course, their foreign but they will aid to the health care there never. that is true -- it is slower so when we talk about the

hispanic so we will see a record turnout with more people turning them have to approach, each hair and. >> you can see that here. the median native u.s. board hispanics is 19 this deck. >> this is a wild card.

is sending several in vinegar if it is harsh to get him added cuts in other words, naturalization plays a big role but the third

generation of those and what is. with that just. but i haven't had a lot of

this is probably due to his your free but you can see her from one bedizened anyone racial or ethnic group although their share

is declining but where the interests sheehy but going from 24% and that is of all eligible voters but does it with inverter frictions but the kids and if if you're

interested you can go to iowa state tutsi-led interactive the you can see the search from 2006 with the affiliation to of the democratic party. i dunno what they are yet to but if you falangist spirit

of a catalyst up introductions and i apologize if this repetitive and. [applause] so it is a year of wild cards. by conducting of a better title. over the fact. most of you were not born

head string year with the three year grace for have footlight continued stinnes the looking at how they're different plant their hedge

nine but to respect their concerns when john mcchesney mitt but in terms of issues

and put the g.o.p. his head to dirty back to their orestes and the head but then just a few years later but looking yes to a choice so there are issues but it's

the there are others to to.

11 then that will be very important values see her. and as a wild card below preceded this the. diane know why you invited me fed fish he and his team

of some other countries. and the covert to see this universe is in trouble because of what has transpired men and under an

reception is governor kasich carries ohio in even this

senator rubio does not carry florida judge donald trump does not have enough delegates for the first round of voting but after that first round it is up for grabs in anything can happen if you don't think so who would have thought chris christie? [laughter] anything is possible i will give you $20. [laughter] what would happen if clinton is the nominee? i will tell you something

and then receive bad data pointing and that correction and. i look forward to your discussion in. [applause] >> food we have invited them not predicted some of these things? in predicting the rise of donald trump was a prerequisite for speaking at american university of our students would not have anything constructive. [laughter] >> with the surprise

announcement that they had agreed to normalize u.s. cuba relations which drew immediate fire from republican presidential hopeful for rubio said obama is the worse negotiator. senator cruz inches above the of failing and out castro and governor brushed accused obama of of trading freedom. donald trump thought he could have gotten a better deal. [laughter] but notice he did not so the up politics are more

complicated. >> vs. liggett national polling. the president's opening is overwhelmingly popular with the general public above 70 percent favorable. and even supported by republicans and getting more popular over time as we see the process of normalization and fold. into a gallop justin its pool more people view cuba favorably they and unfavorably. and other real battleground is florida, and whether they are large enough proportion of the electorate to make a

difference in this state and i know washington and florida can be very close sometimes. [laughter] the cuban-american community has historically been a solid base since the '80s in conventional wisdom was the right strategy to outflank the republican candidate on the right on the issue of u.s. and cuban americans based and more social and economic issues to pick up a reasonable minority and that is the difference and a strategy that worked through '96 that clinton pursued in 2008 but barack obama has a different approach growing

to their growing segment by promise to engage with cuba and it worked. oh long-term trend of republican and democratic votes there is the exit poll analysis the long-term trend is clear in every cycle since 2000 the vote is less reliably republican. so in 2016 it is the result of a changing attitude with the university polling since 1991 in their polls show us most recent arrivals and cuban-americans born in the

united states have moderate views from the exiles are writing in the '60s did '70s and makes perfect sense. those who lost everything those later arrivals are economically motivated. so for the recent arrivals is a good thing because the mix of easier to maintain the family ties. so with that data of engagement with a reasonably consistent when and a fairly dramatic shift from opposition of commerce to lung engagement and 52%

favored lifting the embargo so if we looked in more detail and here's the breakdown. to see the difference when people arrive in the united states. it is much more conservative. it is very silly into a community. and when they decide who they will vote for. unique constituency if there's a stalemate issue.

and they're more likely to have a candidate then engage rand. these are rivals in the overtime to those arriving before 80 have fallen from 81% to just 24% in 2010 and how it has taken a long time for this change to manifest itself people who came earlier almost all citizens now.

has those who are more recent arrivals and most cars still not yet naturalized citizens. over time and long term trend to become more moderate will continue as the later arrivals become naturalized. and finally you can see the it arrivals are down to just 30 percent of 2010. in a the cuban-americans born in the united states. they have eroded the traditional alignment so we

can conclude the obama strategy has been largely successful and is not the way it used to be with the third rail of politics in florida. and this is a national poll to say in december with the era staples. when you can see to be increased overtime.

from you can see by age the and regeneration is clearly in favor of this but the older generation does not like the idea to engage with cuba. interestingly the suit came after 1980 are in fear for of it very much. cuban-americans born in the united states are overwhelmingly in favor of what obama has done. this is now the largest segment been one since for those to be removed and that his initiative in 2017 ended

is solidly in favor with the removing dirt road it's hell lynch with those hispanic boaters nationwide? generally speaking hispanic voters are in favor of what the president has done but it isn't really all that important of an issue. but the democrats ar m more likely to favor this but those that were evenly split and said there is a modest amount to those who like what obama has done and

those who don't. cuban-american voters are likely to vote for someone who is in favor to open the non hispanic voters. , if you oppose the question is almost exactly the same message this is not good headed into the florida a primary fight says they have staked absolute opposition and of course, the president is going to cuba of the week after the primary so it is likely has said in an issue

so far but that will be tricky for cruz said rubio and linda company has moved in a different direction and his more moderate position on cuba they give him any vintage once again to deny that conventional wisdom. thank you very much. >> there is quite a bit in the lead to open up soon but

before i do that regarding naturalization looking at bill slide and a relatively small percentage of those cubans who had naturalize. llwyd is naturalizing and where? >> you'll find the naturalization rate is about 75% or higher. but compared to americans only 44 percent ultimately naturalize.

and those in the country legally. those under over represented to naturalize hispanics because that process is still going on the skins are somewhat underrepresented and then they plan to return home at some point in some would say they're worried about the cost and then say they're worried about their english skills. in they still have not. in terms of those numbers there under represented

given what you would expect. >> with regard to the migration what can you tell us about the demographics of that group? levels of education? with that behavior given? >> into note that the rate of migration has tripled. it is a recent phenomenon.

as they're born citizens that most of them lower immediately or the services under medicare in the of what location. hint active or not politically, it needs to be seen that level of activism might continue to follow politics on an island very closely some will go back to

vote in p.r. which is quite interesting however i have seen nearly numbers in it is sketchy that tend to indicate lower of those supporting statehood for moving that they are not supporting statehood. since if you go back it takes you to the old republican party. but it will be a campaign tremendously some may turn them off and others may be quite attractive. >> one last thing before i turn it over.

i show that the cuba policy question was a driving factor between cuban-americans. this may be for everyone but do we have evidence whether policy toward mexico since or central america or p.r. with regard to assistance might become the new cuban american phenomenon? thought so not because of domestic politics of the torrid country of origin. >> i know there have been some efforts to mobilize americans in particular

round foreign policy and it hasn't been as successful and the difference is the cuban americans first waged to the united states they so identified not as immigrants but exiles with the expectation to come back. that political motivation with that sense eventually they would go back would predispose them this isn't true for the mexican. >> i have campaigned several times in florida. >> and it is so diverse.

said recent immigrant arrivals. i am not sure how much of a connection american mayor of -- mexican americans adhere to. ltd. is the different country. but actually i don't know. that fiscal assistance bankruptcy the fact that rubio is the support it in

wedgy think of his particular stance with the ford ricans in florida to be against reducing. >> also you agree or disagree? >> to be fair he has published columns on this issue it has a comprehensive approach. to implement chapter nine. we need more than every structure is something similar to washington d.c.

with dell level of certainty that has gone away. the with those pro growth mechanisms in those columns he has published senator rubio said i prefer a comprehensive approach in the there is an order in what he tries to explain. in that should be a last resort into more than just improving. with that applicability would not suffice. it was woman year ago that

have not than a default that current budget had not been approved as it tried to slash expenses. many things have occurred to sway people to move away but this is part of a larger plan. >> live what he has done with these problems. that he favors a

comprehensive approach. but on march 15 the status of the florida primary and then it would go to the floor for votes in lobito late to impact that flow. >> if for the governor would

your thoughts on the candidates' positions on the debt crisis? in florida professor on the popularity of the obama policies with russia refugees in arrivals in cuba how does race play into that , among the second wave of refugees? >> of those five remaining only one or two have expressed themselves.

and i believe that others take that same position to suggest that comprehensive approach is required. but we have not heard from the other four. is an island that will hold its primary this sunday by the time we get to florida we will go we're not skiing at the moment it would definitely have an impact. >> that was pretty a similar

to governor bush but whether it is chapter nine we saw some tweets after that debate the republicans had late last week. again hitting senator rubio on that issue but you are not explaining a comprehensive approach. even though we tried to force that. the there was an "in-depth" discussion the comprehensive approach makes sense. >> but it is extremely

attractive for offensive. >> and they'll look like cuban society from the '60s did in the '70s based on that community. whether or not that made a difference possibly it did at the margins but the change of opinion on issues related to cuba is a longstanding trend. ended predates obama for the reasons and i expressed so while this may have been a few percentage points the

longer-term is a basic interest. >> i have wondering if you undertake that was set alight on the idiosyncratic and how that may be effective in the united states. >> note we have not. over the years to explore the attitudes in the united states and to say that it has slowed substantially but these things change over time. to say life is better than in the united states ended

is on the rise. you'll also find those who are falling in line with the mugger in dash migration of mexicans. . .