have speaks to the fact they are employed by our combatant commanders. . . working closer

with partners and allies on a routine basis to ensure that whatever capabilities they bring to bear, that they are interoperable with ours, that is going to be a critical factor factor for us as we go forward. those of you who have been paying attention in eastern europe, you know that we have had a series of multinational exercises there of the last two years. there is a major exercise going on as we speak that poland is actually commanding this operation and we are providing forces under their leadership. as part of the exercise we projected forces from the global response for subway from wartburg north carolina into

this exercise, we have conducted a combined forced entry operation with forces of multinational partner as well as the 170 third from the station in italy. so this very focused deterrence by partners is going to be huge part of how we address increased ability, p or competitors, and deliver the best possible deterrence that the nation can afford. in terms of challenges that we face in afghanistan, what i will tell you, i was just there over memorial day weekend and the afghan security forces continue to form admirably in a very, very highly contested environment.

they have taken very high casualties but they continue to defeat the television and -- talo there is the ability to enforce over time so there's not just a campaign capable army, but a national, sustainable force as we go forward. the the most promising sign has been to put the right leadership into the formation. and the result when they do that is pretty significant in terms of enduring effects that they are trying to achieve. it is a commitment that needs to

endure and it needs to be a commitment that we continue to lead and that are nato partners continue to support as well. >> i'm going to give justin the last question. but i want to squeeze in warmer. what i hate about the ministration as they come up great ideas at the 11th hour. so so we talk about the new personal policy maybe not doing finding other ways to bring in technical people at different levels. it's really interesting personnel management ideas. some thoughts about things we might be able to continue to go back and forth, i wish they would've started seven years ago but okay, great. of those ideas, anything that you would really want to think that this is something we need to carry them in time forward regardless to the next guy or girl sitting there? . . . .

attract talent and enables us to hire in a more responsive way than what we currently can. is better for the department of defense and certainly better for the united states army. i think the other aspect from the army's perspective on particularly the latest initiatives that were rolled out here in the past week, is it gives the secretaries of the services the authority to use those tools that are needed, and that's important.

want to have a toolbox that enables you to adjust as you need to, and if you don't need it -- >> getting beyond that industrial management approach to human capital management. having a flexible tool kit that allows you to get the talent you need when you need it. >> we all know what life in a bureaucracy could be like can right? >> a few months ago general milly used the phrase, high military risk when talking about i belief conventional, kind of threats. can you unpack that in a way that makes sense outside the pentagon, outside the beltway? what does high military risk mean to the army and what drives that assessment? >> our current directive has us focused on delivering the ability to defeat a competitor

while denying the objectives of another near simultaneously. while sustaining our commit. s on the homeland, sustaining our current tempo of operations against violent extremist around the world, and ensuring that we can deter iran. so, when you look at those set of tasks that we have been given, and the force that we have available, that's where general milly drew that conclusion, and so when you look at one competitor in a theater of war and you're simultaneously deploying forces to deny the objectives of another, therein lies the stress as we have gotten smaller across all capabilities, and so that is the

genesis of that comment, and it is a fairly fundamental math problem. it's the combination of capables and capacity. in other words, we have to have sufficient ready forces that can deliver on the timelines that the commanders need. that's where we're in distress. >> the enemy can count. i know that -- we have hit on a lot of those today and i really appreciate that. so please join me in thanking the general. thank you for coming. [applause] [inaudible conversations]

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this is an hour and 20 minutes. [inaudible conversations] >> welcome to the program. afghanistan fighting the taliban. i'm john walter, chief operating

officer of the hudson institute. thank you for joining us here at the foreign policy center. next september 11th will mark the 16th areas of the attack on america by al qaeda. the war against the taliban and other extremist groups last most all of those 15 years. costing the u.s.-afghan, allies, many lives and military and resources in an effort to stop this threat and give democracy to people of afghanistan. efforts to find a negotiated settlement have been disappointing and the taliban may now game power. an opportune time for this program. how should we understand the current state of the war in afghanistan, since the taliban -- what should be the way ahead? we are grateful to be joined by afghan's ambassador to the

united states, hamdullah mohib. before becoming ambassador to the united states he served as deputy chief of staff of the president of afghanistan and helped to draft and implement bilateral, multilateral agreements, including the u.s.-afghan partnership leading the discussion is ambassador mcconey, who is a hudson institute fellow. ambassador to the u.s. in 2008 and 2011 and widely respected for mapping a difficult partnership at a difficult time on the global war on terror. please join me in welcoming our guests. [applause] >> thank you, john, for that very kind introduction. it's a pleasure, hosting

ambassador mohib, has been ambassador in the united states. he is a respected afghan public servant, having worked on u.s.-iran relations for a while and a number of other things, including realizing strategy in afghanistan which those were critical of the u.s. role in afghanistan is very important that afghanistan hag made an effort to increase self-reliance, obviously it has serious challenges, and we will be discussing those challenges today. as a part of our discussion is dr. mohammad taqi, a medical doctor by training, a well-known columnist and somebody who has had an active role in pashtun nationalist causes in pakistan.

let me begin inviting ambassador mohib to make an introduction where you see afghanistan at the present juncture, the challenge of the taliban. why do you feel that the iran peace process, which president obama invested heavily in, has not moved forward, and why do we hear the taliban resurgence, which is not always completely manifest itself because -- not going defeat the taliban nor are you in a position where people will say, the taliban are winning tomorrow. so, it's a kind of stalemate. why does that stalemate exist? yawed yawed conversation [inaudible conversations]

>> ambassador, colleague from the diplomatic corps, government officials, journalists, and friends of afghanistan, good afternoon. from the out set let me begin by offering my sincere condolences to the american people and the families of the victims and the community florida, and the u.s. government on this tragic event of yesterday morning in orlando. we condemn this act of terror and hate in the strongest terms. terrorists have only one goal, to use violence to divide people. time to stand united and in solidarity against terrorism. as the people who have suffered from terrorism for many years,

continues to be one of the most frequent victims of terrorist attack, we share the grief of the american people. this comes at a time during the month of ramadan, a month of compassion and generosity. a month that puts our blessed life in perspective. a month that increases our understanding of the difficulties of those who are less fortunate than us. a month that encourages to re-evaluate our behavior toward other people, be compassionate and generous. i want to thank the hudson institute and ambassador haqqani for inviting me today to speak about what for my government is the most urgent priority. security and stabilization of afghanistan. this is not just our priority.

afghanistan is fortunate to have many western partners and regional partners, who understand how critically important it is for afghans to live in peace and to be able to focus their full attention on recovering from years of war and develop into a stable, self-reliant, opportunity-rich country. so many of our fellow neighbors have already done so successfully. in 2014, as nato's mission was ending, our very young afghan military was thrust into the leading role in fighting our common enemy. since then our forces have become stronger, more disciplined, and more capable. it is said that although the afghan military was 12 years old in 2015, this year they're 20 years old. they've made eight years of

progress in less than 12 months. we're now fighting an enemy, or shall i say enemies that are more brutal. once we only faced the taliban. we're now attacked by faceless terrorists whose agenda threatens not just afghanistan but regional and world security. i'm talk about daesh and al qaeda and other groups that seek to destagize -- destabilize our region. the former, which pits out of -- have murdered some 600 afghans in the last six months, mostly young people who refuse to join its ranks. a term means total loyalty and cover and cooperation in return for its support. if it wasn't clear before, it

should be clear to the world by now, afghan soldiers and civilians are dying in a war that has been imposed on us. a war that was not chosen by us. a war that was not caused by us. here in america i often hear that afghanistan seems like a yesterday's war. but for the afghan soldiers, standing guard at the gates of the city, threatened by in the enemies of peace, that war is very much still happening. so afghan civilians, children, women, killed by brutal suicide attacks, that war still very much happening. afghanistan is a poor country with big potential and big am, mys and we have a government with the knowledge, expertise, and vision to change our destiny, but instead of spending all our budget and energy on rebuilding infrastructure,

creating new avenues for economic development, or investing in our huge youth population, we are spending a sizable amount of military operations. to fight off attacks from enemies largely supported by and made up of foreign militants. this is not just afghanistan's fight. thus is the world's fight. afghanistan and its neighbors are at the forefront of this fight. it's regional problem that requires a regional response. and that is why we have been working with our neighbors, and regional partners to built a consensus on fighting our common enemy that is terrorism. we have been work with our neighbors to end the distinction between good and bad terrorists. as if there is such thing as a good terrorist. we have been working with our neighbors to play a positive and constructive role in afghanistan.

the afghans are a strong, resilient, and proud people. a people that despite decades of war, have not been beaten. we are still working on rebuilding our country, undeterred by the challenges. those who wish to gain influence in afghanistan must by now understand that investing in our development and rebuilding our infrastructure, and in contributing to peace and stability and generate goodwill in afghanistan, in the last 1,000 years. regional stability and peace is increasingly every nation's need. more than ever before. and the stability begins with afghanistan. we want to -- with elements of taliban who have legitimate political grievances that can be worked out at a negotiation table. but we also have the job of protecting our people and

country from violence that we have endured for far too long. attacks like the one in kabul on april 19th, that murdered 70 people and wounded 400. so to us, afghan lives mother and we mourn every life lost to this imposed war. we're proud of the afghan security forces who have done a remarkable job so far. also welcome the news that president obama has expanded the man mandate of u.s. forces they can now provide support on the battle fields and close air support in offensive battles against the taliban inch addition to the invaluable training, assistance, and intelligence support they have been providing already. this development should strike fear in the hearts of the

enemies of afghanistan, who have already suffered multiple defeats at the hand of the national defense security forces. this year during this year's spring fighting season. also killed or arrested more than 36 taliban leaders in the last 18 months, almost half of them were shadow provincial governors. the afghan national defense and security forces have new technical and military capabilities, including air force and helicopters. they have proven themselves to be formidable on the field of battle. coordination has greatly improved, and logistical supply change has improved. recently the taliban tried to retack the city but were defeated before they could launch an attack. these recent security related developments increased capacity of afghan forces, their success

in the spring fighting season. a decision by in the white house to expand the mandate of american troops, attacks in kabul and what they revealed about the operations of the enemy and the death of -- an impediment to peace, created an opportunity for afghanistan and its allies to turn the security tide in our favor. but there are also positive developments outside the security sector that are helping stabilize afghanistan. afghanistan that just signed the -- agreement with india and iran, creating a new corridor for the first time. that fifths us access to the border. it gives us an increased connectivity to the world. ...

>> >> the only way left is to

except and conform to the desires of the people to the international community with the best way to control terrorism to put more pressure of those that use it for political gain. finally it their message to our neighbor, he should work with us to strive so hard to realize it is hard work to create a prosperous region not a ground for conflict and violence. [applause] >> with being an ex ambassador in dealing with

the language. ion visualizing the map and you're not talking about me anbar. but the administration now to keep american troops for a little while longer while you are confident about the fact that it takes several years but is still leaves a few years to compete with

the army that has existed since 1857. >> for those who use terrorism to make distinctions between good and bad terrorist in the next point other than the countries to the east and since he is from the country my question is what ever happened until last several efforts of working closely

with pakistan and not just in the tribal areas but traveling between two positions that are not very far considering the an impediment to peace that debate that has been set back? only because the peace process was not.

>> you can interpret as you which since i remember it makes sense of things i remember people praying for peace. even now weddings and funerals for we were collectively to gather and to keep those doors open

with a quadrilateral process and how to proceed with the peace process and that was a clean line but those promises that were made on paper if there would be a shift because as we see in the united states terrorism has no boundaries to recognize those boundaries and those root -- loyalties.

>> is in the interest of our obiit neighbors to have peace and instability in the country to put on a faster pace to give the opportunity to take a break. >> anders stanley mean i understand to pray for peace and somehow it just hasn't happened unfortunately the pakistan a perspective seems to be as our guest for many, many years and i think the pakistan reestablishment

instead of having become much closer friends with that hospitality year conflict nor pakistan is the end he is between the two countries. i would ask the doctor to get into a discussion with the current ambassador were the former ambassador so why don't i asked you to diagnose so the discussion can move forward? we must remember americans have an interesting relationship so really what you mean is they are

irrelevant but the truth is history matters in this situation refiner solves has a background with the war against the soviets in the pakistan a government to be together is supported the taliban but first it was the extremist groups then 9/11 have been banned american guide interested again it seems that they are conjoined twins with tremendous difficulty they have had many victims to sip

to have the official pakistan the perspective so let's hear it from you as the standoff in uh province they both the key was an impediment and pakistan and the officials insist that the elimination would set back. >> so let's talk about what is happening.

with the major tragedy it is much closer to us than we think. this is our you associate and then suddenly it is the situation in and as the catalyst of a radical as long this is not an organizational tool so it is

closer to home much closer than you think and ahab operated there and on the map of i have confined a laser pointer. okay then i can pinpoint. [laughter] this is a seminary that was started at the turn of the 20th century right next to

it is the special services group the elite forces this is the home of the pakistan army. but the aeronautical complex and home to nuclear not too far about one hour drive where do these terms come from like the madrasah? said graduates have to come through 1970 a bed with the election campaign this is

just to give a quick perspective you heard of that not too far from here and is producing a lot of radicalization 81 of this sort. three of them? of the bad there is a problem so we talk about that a little bit more. it has existed for the last 69 years and to support that and through the political

parties that was toward the handle so -- also. there is one that is operated right here. so that means it is the of fountainhead of knowledge that is "the fountainhead" of jihad. that is not too far from those regions and they set up shop for what they have been talking about. but the day after they were

eliminated as expected to be a cogent response but they did not hear that. there was some mumbling and then making up with this disingenuous problem and to ask the u.s. to bomb the hideouts. so it takes us certain audacity to say that if someone is killed if someone escapes from your operations

that is from the retired army major, it is ironic that instead of the introspection that we get this and with the recent history with the military high command and has taken out the leadership from the get-go. the teacher of the suicide bombers and this is not the lower rank is the top position and i am pretty comfort -- confident they could take that out and now what happened we don't know

but i can certainly forecast despite all that he would not seek specific action those that were stationed in that if eliot. >> what happened to? when he was taken out the pakistan any armed forces spokesperson ended is one of the elite army and what has to go through for promotions the motto is in farsi and is

there the next day the comment made was that a global phenomenon of terrorism and extremism as how attractive but when there were taken out for four days the taliban should have been gone and they said we will fight global terrorism the with the former taliban whose name translates into fear of god or something so this was happening it is a very dusty

terrain right here. here is covered -- catarrh. the home of the pakistan the army the army's selection recruitment center of this all of this was happening.

immelt was is discovered but the point is that so is it possible for people to get in and out like that? so she sat here and plotted. >> but we want to open it up. >> share. >> the question what is the nature of the taliban the

call will attack those receptive the responsibility for that then it is in a certain area of pakistan but the question and arises so what exactly is pakistan's role in that? this has been done historically but when civilians are being subjected them they are

dispatched with their heads back to their families. so low there is a question about that. so when pakistan is bush we hear we have leverage there is money and logistics trading but that is coming from somewhere. but one thing i want to say is potentially it could be a drawback. as they go out with the most

famous cases so much so that those leaders that try to make them their family they are called to war to fight. that is an issue. with the inability to reduce the taliban. but -- potentially the relationships are domestic. they have been nurtured and raised and was paid dash pakistan the senator.

so the blow back could be contained so i will just up there and we can discuss that. >> before i open the floor i will ask a couple of questions. first is to the ambassador to say very candidly so that if pakistan holds back the peace process to up the anti-by eliminating those that they were presenting what is pakistan's interest?

wide eating pakistan has not yet decided from the government's perspective we did say and reach out as a huge political cost to itself with the and declare hostilities ended one way the discussion and amongst the pakistan me with the policy that is an encouragement to us.

so that effort was already made and from my personal opinion of what is happening and may have been stuck in the past now is a different time in the era for the policy setters to a stuck in that era. >> basically the national strategic debt briefly? >> i recently heard a performance it he used the word cost of four that was perpetrated as they were slaughtered and then he had the nerve to say it was

collateral damage. >> cry masking the benefit the several thousand live in terrorism what you think that they want? >> they want as a fifth province they can do anything that they want their bike to have an unstable or unfriendly and fewer job metrics, this is the paradigm they seem to be working under the the nazi high this ecosystem if you have to create the village of jihadi there is intellectuals and so much support structure but

somehow i got into their head of the civilization to be subdued by a 69 year-old country. >> with your interaction with american officials can you find there is of better understanding? i have been saying this for 60 years the best way to have a friendly government is city trying to create and then try to export to afghanistan. to me it's scenes have they

distributed that? but then they have to be even-handed with elsie with the benefit would have been of a the benefits to become agitated and then to learn from history when we learn that force does not work? >> i think if pakistan wanted a friendly policy that would go a long way

that is what we need with a friendly effort. you can take an afghan to help force or by asking i said you cannot taken to heaven by force. so what you say at of a concern of the india factor? sova to they really want to have the strategy to focus? would that be possible? from the haqqani network would dash end pakistan's

concerns? if that is exaggerated what have you done? >> suffering through lot we have made that clear to all of our neighbors so that does include pakistan. >> but there is that potential so you do understand from that perspective that may not apply to india. >> those are the bilateral issues those of the problems that we should be resolving

to answer your previous question this is the better understanding about what is happening in afghanistan, i am assuming that was understood. >> do you see that repetition the momentum of a similar action? even those that are heard rumors? that was appended to peas for many, many years. should we expect, many as we

move forward we cannot say what their actions would be but that proved what we have been saying for a long time including yourself they're not just attacking the afghan civilians to involved in kidnapping san suicide attacks sources said justin threat to west with afghanistan or our partners in the region. >> my last question to you so what can the u.s. do?

what you see to break the stalemate that the u.s. has its own interest with pakistan so therefore the united states does not want a total breach united states has started to reach out to iran so what options does it have? >> first of all, and would ask is there any historical precedent to investing in several billion dollars per year? but then they turn around for a terrorist group with u.s. interest with the servicemen and women so has

this ever happened? but i cannot think of a historical precedent so of that has such duplicitous but they have there are many of complaints. >> bearers the bass -- the best of allies so realistically what can be done? the u.s. has invested heavily to arrange talks with the taliban so how can you wage war and make peace at the same time?

to bring them to the negotiating table those then said they would never do that so that could be represented and i have written them myself but the taliban i don't think it is an enemy but that pakistan the government but the people are four or five years behind the curve that is how it played out and then they declare that and then in 2005 they are regrouping the u.s. is still cropping up but they coated response so they would ask

to take some type of action to say that the haqqani network that would not get that establishment to act and they said i don't have enough men and then suddenly turns around to conduct a an operation with 50,000 troops so there's something wrong with the perception but then it takes another four years and i have heard social me one specific targeted haqqani network.

i want to know one name. >> from the policy-making that is a line from "gone with the wind" so i take your point so any comments before i turn to the audience? >> i do want to talk about two things and one was the refugees. having ben the refugee i know that nobody wants to be if there is peace they would return to their homes if

they cannot go after that leadership that is a success that is happening every day. but howdy you tackle something? >> it is not disputed with many officials legally afghanistan does recognize

and to have the lines drawn by the british in 1893 cell talks about sealing the border in the end it will come down to the people said pakistan that should not play the game they have played. but you cannot put a price on a. but that's has, it's very short debate echoes to long

i will interrupt. and introduce yourself briefly into the microphone. >> i come from a small city south of afghanistan i am studying entreprenuership. as a war victim might see what goes on out there. and as you have made it clear it is an issue between the two countries the borderline really has not been accepted as the actual border so these issues which it doesn't want to give a backed so that is why we have the taliban it is very

important here. >> you are coming to the point you're going to lung. >> given the of lobbying that goes on to train the military police but we have drug dealers and child molesters it doesn't help to reduce. >> frame your question i take we were trying to risk says the united states are there at the same time is united states during the conflict? >> yes session of the u.s. remade the interventionist?

and let it sold its own issues? >> anyone brave enough to answer that? >> if we have u.s. counterpart from where we see it as our perspective that yes well we are working on the self-reliance strategies we're trying to reduce our dependence and some of these were spent for development there be no need for u.s. support. >> i will answer your question if the united states is helping them they are really helping them there they continue in just to give the fish and they're

not necessarily helping them to become self-reliant so that should be the principal to give us leverage for re different perspective. >> one old colleague mentioned the madrasahs. there is hundreds of these my question is very simple. where they coming from? so where does the money come from?

>> there is the question of the findings that is home grown the you would see the wilcoxes and sometimes business concerns that have been induced to do that but then as is mentioned in the book they would handed over

so there is enough blame to go around. >> those including the state interest of that coming together. right here in the middle. >> so what would the united states want? i think what is happening to deal with iran and india and the u.s. and the relationship and also to

give a message to pakistan to come and join the force the way it can be a part of it. so my question is what is china's position? so perhaps the ambassador can? >> i think have a simple answer. china has its interest and it acts like the united states with its own interest. and since it has a damaged relationship with others in the region and i the chinese

china does have an obligation to support pakistan it zero ways is a d.c. 44 country to influence >> to quit questions there has ben a lot of talk about corruption and domestic instability pushing towards the taliban government's by the predictable order with that in the international community do to prevent that? you alluded to that in your presentation but there is

that question of dash its asian and that taliban brand is maybe it is too much of a simplification said the thing separating the nationalism will help to reduce the terrorists climate? >> with corruption there taken great strides with a source of corruption and then we took that away in centralized that to go to

the major contracts have a country with $400 million and a relative context as part of a new development partnership that was immediately put back back into the economy so we are taking steps in a real understand without a government you cannot get people's loyalty completely. which they do there behind the anti-corruption. >> there is one perspective

but that is the ambassador referred to that was a progressive liberal with the islamism of the taliban. best buy to political parties from president karzai. >> right here. and then i will take here for question is to save time.

>> with what is happening with us taliban if they take with their leadership since the last leader is said to along those lines? >> it is open to all of those who wish to join the process to end the conflict. to be fragmented what makes the differences are they willing to join to be a part of the lead democratic process people camp participated different levels so with this point it would be a great job to

protect and defend against a threat so it is difficult to say if the fragmentation has reduced or to be more proactive. >> i have noticed talk about afghanistan we know where they're looking and sanctioning. so in terms of controlling those but all those other

going to school every day. >> three will put those questions together. >> i think this issue is more significant statement introduced herself. >> i think this should be addressed as most of that generation it is between the two states. >> it has a regional perspective international

perspective going back to the liberal democratic party went everybody was walking around. they do not have the clue or the connection. >> eight understand your point so how the huge national committee aided the radicalization but china and its role. >> we get the point. >> keep your questions brief please.

>> but it's it's in the best interest and my second question with the state of israel has the same mindset and then has ties with it? >> i worked for several years to develop the mining sector. and we're also working with pakistan so i just want to make a contrast and observation this sociological point does a few the people may

anti-american and just as an observation and not talking about the government put them assad. and then to make a connection or a lot of afghanis are feeling the same way. >> so several comments and why it was progressive with the communist support

support the agenda so how do you think that what they're suffering right now with that a correct judgment with a comment from the nationalist movement. >> aid space for them i wish that i did. they made a mistake. and of the famous back to see any politicians i think that is what happens they

were supported and we saw some of that and there is an active rekindling going on. but there is the discussion we should have that another time when you are in a household that is what the constitution situation and what that is. . .

that is something that we need to let the leadership pursue. we will remain standing on their two on fee. if set action were to succumb they would think long and hard that they should not be leaving it up to. [inaudible] >> several questions, i would make an observation before that on the subject of what happened in fighting the soviets. >> that war ended in 1989 with the draw of the soviet union. so it did being bringing down the communist bloc, i think that sometimes the responsibility must be taken that were taken in

pakistan especially after 1989. for example pakistan kept it a very long population and these are people who were not even born when that war was taken place. so i understand the concern and the question, but i sometimes feel that in what is going on now it kind of whitewash is what happened in between. there were other factors that were at play here. but go on, you have several questions, some of which i note diplomatically want to just not necessarily want to but i want you to respond to every question being asked by the audience.

>> welcome i have to say that patience pays off. in the beginning if you if you remember i set up a couple points. one of them was about the extremism that you mention in jihadist him. while i agree the lady here that from a historical perspective we have to look at it and we learn from history move on, we don't stay stuck in it. yes, what i wanted to say was while they may have had extremist elements they were not extreme, by the majority, the freedom fighter is one thing to be their country of primitive vader. but elements that lead to it and being stuck in that history is something that we should really get out of. was dubbed the has happened many decades since then. today, it is the different situation, different relationship, the regional politics never thing has changed so much.

on the question, afghanistan is it in broiled in own internal issues, so many that we have to deal with it, it's not our place at this point to involve ourselves in whatever we feel, however humanitarian of a project, it's difficult for us to get ourselves involved and to get our resources to address an issue that while we are still to solve and move towards a stable -- so let's all pray that afghanistan becomes stable and peaceful and hopefully the whole region, we will pray for you all to become and our neighbors, it's in our interest to have peace around us comments your interest to have peace in afghanistan. so at that note to prayer let us

bring this afternoon to an end. it has been a wonderful discussion. discussion. i would just say that the united states, it ignored afghanistan between 1989 and 2001 and as a result 9/11 happened. but then the united states and the people who think about the issues also need to look at the big picture, and see how we can actually find a solution in which the taliban can be forced onto the table or off the map. either those solutions would be acceptable to us at this audience. so. so thank you for joining us. we will soon -- those of you who are not already on the hudson mailing list please give your names to the young people here who are working with us and we

look forward to staying in touch. >> thank you very much. [inaudible] [inaudible] [inaudible]

trafficking, dealing with migrants at sea, and u.s. policy in the arctic. from the center for strategic and international studies, this is about one hour. >> good morning everyone. welcome to csi's, i'm kathy hits director of the security program here and together with our partners at the u.s. naval

institute and daly who is taking a seat representing hit them today. where happy to bring your maritime security dialog. today we're especially happy to be inviting you to speak on the u.s. coast guard, admiral paul. >> that always connected come here about 17 months ago so this is a great update on everything that has happened for and with the coast guard. in the meantime which is both significant. he, as you may well know has extensive operational command experience in the pacific and the atlantic, and of of no, he was the federal on scene coordinator for the deepwater horizon's bill and he directed there more than 47,000 responders, and 6500 vessels and 120 aircraft dealing and 120 aircraft dealing with the largest oil spill in u.s. history.

so i think you can agree that he has both the extensive international experience in the homeland experience necessary for any coast guard. sorry about that, you can be a very core, not as well. >> before we begin today i want to go through safety procedures. we have doors behind us and then we have the door behind me that leads to the back of the building and this leads to the front of the building. the star normal safety precautions that we relate to you. and i would be here to direct to you in case of fire alarm goes off. i want to also thank our sponsors for this event and for the whole series and that is martin international and hunting ingles industry so thank you for making the series possible. without further do, over two. >> thank you kathy and it's a good to see some a family faces here. first of all is a somber week, let's face it 49 at the last

count and i know there are families morning and it is always mindful the threats that face us on a day-to-day basis. and certainly those are the threats that we always look at and the coast guard and maritime domain as well. but what i like to open up with here first is what i came into this job just a over two years ago. on day one we put up mike, not direction, and usually that's a tendency to let me wait six months and i will study and see what's going on and then i will provide my direction. but i realize i only have four years. so you you don't have six months to waste. so the first day one we put out my direction and the first piece of that was about service to nation. though i broke that down to first of all strategy needs to drive our budget. for nearly 225 years we have always looked at here is our our budget now what we do with it.

we were doing what was left over, really not looking at what our unique authorities are and where do we plug and play on a global scale, not just just here in the homeland but worldwide as well. so not just strategy driving budget, but also intelligence a driving operations. we have been a member of member of the national intelligence community now for 14 years. but it is not just driving the operations, it is also driving where you do not operate. where you apply what i would say risk a base decision-making. we have 11 statutory missions, and historically we would try to fill all of those 11 buckets up equally but recognizing some of those buckets are already pretty healthy. i looked at our international fisheries enforcement and we had a compliance rate of over 95%. then i looked at what was happening in the western hemisphere and on any given day we had intelligence on over 80 or 85% of of the drug flow

ultimately destined for the united states. eighty - 85 percent, but on the best of days we could target 10%. that means over 70 or 75% of that gets a free pass. so he started looking at the external environment and waste said put a series of strategies together, i cannot forecast out ten, or 15 years but i can suddenly look out five years which is what we did last year and we put out a five year strategic intent. looking at those socioeconomic influences, not just here the united states but on a global scale. what is happening in the european union, where you have countries that are struggling economically and get you have a and yet you have a rising training, you have a rising southeast asia and many of the maritime nations of the world are not trying to build navies, they're they're trying to build coast guard's because they see their most intrinsic threat in the maritime domain is human trafficking, illegal

fishing, smuggling and the like and of course natural disasters, search and rescue. in fact at the international sea powers symposium in 2014, i felt like the agenda was hijacked because it became very coast guard like. but many of the maritime nations of the world cannot afford and they could not duplicate the best navy in the world and that is our united states navy, second to none and always will be. so my plug for that as well. but we recognize that discretionary budgets are not going to grow anytime soon. we also recognize there will be a change in administration. so factored all of that and as we tried to look out over the next five years of the coast guard. and where to our authorities resonate globally where we bring the best return on investment? then we went out with off with a number of regional and functional strategies, one of those is our strategy for the western hemisphere.

when i arrived in the job that year we had 68,000 unaccompanied minors, primarily from, primarily from the countries of hunters, guatemala, and el salvador leaving those countries in the hands of the human trafficker to make safe arrival in the united states. so the first thing i did as the chairman of the interdiction committee, within the office of the national drug control policy, i went down with a number principles here in d.c. and we met with presidents of the tri-board of regents. we met with the president of colombia and panama as well. we said wire these young children leaving? probably the most sobering account of this was when i met with presidents around and el salvador. he said is like this, the parents right now are taking their kids out of school because they are afraid that they will either be co-opted or forced to join a gang.

this is a country right now that has 40% unemployment, 50% poverty, and now and now you're pulling this next generation out of a higher education and so where is el salvador going to be in the next 15 or 20 years? then i asked there in the hunters, guatemala and i say why the violence? a year ago honduras was the most violent nation in the world. the murder rates were perching nearly 100 per 100,000. president hernandez said the problem is when these are drugs arrive in and they land in my country, the first thing that we lose is rule of law. the money is so great that i cannot pay law-enforcement enough to please this activity. so if you can keep this offshore or prevented from coming on sure, i can then address the security environment of my country, but as soon as

it's like money flowing from the sky but in this case it arrives in bales of cocaine. and again, 75% of it is it getting through, he said if you can do that then you can have an impact. so again, intelligence driving operations and driving how we manage risk. we double down on our coast guard presence in the transit zone in the western hemisphere. we do not do by yourself, we had great support by customs and border protection and hsi within the department of homeland security and the national dea, fbi, just to name a few others. all in on this as well. so last year we removed 191 metric tons of cocaine and we took 700 smugglers into custody for prosecution here in the united states. prosecution right here is about 98%. the prosecution rate in honduras was 2%. so you do not have to be a math wizard to figure out where you get the best return on investment. so we have continued that effort this year as well, if you

remember last year 191 metric tons, over 700 smugglers, six months into this year, six months into this year we have removed over 245 metric tons of cocaine. we are on a slope to remove over 400 metric tons and take 400 smugglers into custody as well. it's not just the volume, it's the ill-gotten gains, it's what this is doing to regional stability and central america. so when i look at the cooperative strategy for the 21st century strategy for the 21st century and we are written into that as well, the navy is and must be deployed elsewhere, and they are weather three positioning of the pacific in the mediterranean, but we start looking at where those gaps are it seems leads to significant one in the western hemisphere right now. at a point in time when they're really doing a lion share of our coast guard activity with law-enforcement teams and parked in those platforms and there are no in service. so we have double down there. we've also looked at the arctic to the north and it is no big

secret that the waters of the arctic's opening and with that we have seen about a 300300% increase in human activity in the arctic. i was up there last year when shell was drilling in the burger oil feel and the tchotchkes see. conservative estimates are that 13% of the worlds oil and about 1,000,000,000,000 dollars worth of minerals reside on the seafloor up in the arctic region. it's probably not profitable to exploit that when oil is hovering just north and south of $50 a barrel. are they going to stay that way forever but if nothing else you can look at the oil and gas that is up there as strategic of the united states. we can also look at the fact that we have done extensive see mapping beyond our traditional 200-mile economic exclusive zone up in the arctic and it's nearly twice the area of the state of california. but we have seen other nations out there doing scientific

research and establishing a pattern of operating in the very same area as well. recognizing that the united states is the only arctic nation that is not ratified the law of the sea convention. we are seeing more and more human activity, the cruiseship crystal serenity will depart this august and they will transit through the bering strait, through strait, through the northwest passage and eventually return to new york. an area that was charted about 5% of the arctic is it charted into what is 21st-century standards. and not that long ago i was on the icelandic coast guard vessel and as captain i went up to the chart room and there on the chart the data for that chart is 1915. when shackleton, on the endurance was rewriting history in terms of man's or resilience, fighting mother nature. but now, now, you have crew shipping

activity findings very same orders. today, the coast guard still flies the international ice patrol following the sinking of the titanic 104 years ago. so what happens if we have an event, a cruiseship if you will that finds an uncharted identical or these are not icebreaking cruise ships that are up there, so we start looking at what our needs are. the united states can't do it alone. so just this past week i was in boston and i met with all of the heads of the arctic coast guards, all seven other countries and we had the lead. i was the chair of this, we had russia there, and this is no easy feat, but it is the one area where we have an open dialogue with their russian counterparts in terms of how to

re-frame the strategic environment of the arctic. they too are concerned with the amount of human activity, shipping going through there, what if you have an oil spill and russia admits that even with the fleets of icebreakers the fleet of icebreakers that they have, they do not have the capacity to deal with the challenges in the arctic. the first thing that we need to do is set up a communication protocol. an information exchange where we can communicate with each other 24/7 and share the main awareness of what is happening in the high north latitudes. so we will meet one last time to finalize the operating guidelines for the arctic as well. you might say well will be other crew shipping activities, i know what the price per passages if i want to book affair of the crystal serenity, for what? and if i'm in the crew shipping industry this is a business, so you might want to get in on this business and i fully anticipate that we will see more and more crew shipping into this a very pristine environment coming up

in the future as well. so we are not done there. we also looked at what is happening in the cyber domain and i know all of you follow cyber. i look primarily through the maritime transportation lens, i was out at long beach earlier this year and it looks like something out of star wars, even though that is where george lucas got that design for those robots, but there are these autonomous vehicles moving containers across the yard and there on man's. in fact, they are not even, they're using natural gas so there's no carbon, very little carbon footprint. but they put they put transponders down beneath the tarmac of this entire tainer terminal and they're using a gps signal but they realize that if there's a disruption in the gps signal they have resiliency. in fact, this robot this robot wanted sensors that is battery pack is down, they also run battery it will go to the charging station, the robot pulls it out puts another one in, they go back to work.

i don't think it cost all that much per hour to move these things around. but it's a huge investment. but we have seen ships that had been disrupted by cyber. we've seen mobile offshore drilling units move off their drilling circle which means that blowout preventer had to kick in shut in that well because that main control council lost the ability to communicate with the thrusters and so now you have what could've been another deepwater horizon but in this case that blowout preventer worked and it hasn't happened in more than one occasion. it's a big big cost to the industry, literally millions. the cost roughly 1,000,000 dollars a day to rent, or lease of mobile offshore drilling unit but when you look at lost productivity type reestablishing control, obviously the cost goes up as well. so industry is keenly attuned to operating in the cyber domain. even something as fundamental as you have to replace the part, how do you know there is not malware in that part as well. so we have reached out to the international maritime organization, we've held a number of town halls and

normally industry does not want to be regulated, yet they realize that if were going to change behavior it may require a regulatory regime, best practices of how does industry stay ahead of the cyber threats of today. our financial sector, about 95% plus is behind a bona fide firewall in protecting very sensitive information. maritime transportation system on the other hand is about 25%. about 90% of our global trade moves by sea. so it is a very vulnerable segments of our economic prosperity, but more importantly our economic security and with that our national security. another area i'm looking at is within the energy sector. when we wrote this energy policy, oil at that time was going for $100 per barrel. every day a new tank barge was entering the mississippi river, this was, in fact we saw 50 fold

increase in barge traffic carrying bock in crude, you saw what happened a week ago when a train derailed a very strong light ends, very volatile substance but there is also a heavy into this as well. it's about the about the same specific gravity is water as the wider and lead out and then it sinks in the water. now some lady mindful of earlier this year we had record flooding in the interior of the united states which means you have high river conditions and so there's a big difference pushing a barge downriver versus upriver. when you're going down river it's like going down skyline parkway with a double semi with no breaks.

it is very difficult to stop these things. we saw a number of bridge collisions. mud most of these were green barges because they were not moving crude at the time. but when that sinks and it gets into the water intakes we need to make sure that we are ready to respond to those scenarios as well. at the end of the day we need to keep that inland highway bars open and robust. at the the same time we inspect all these barges, we are just starting to push lng into the global market right now. there's a lot of competition out there, i think we'll see a supply glut of lng in the near term but the united states sits on the highest volume of natural gas as any other country in the world. huge, huge economic potential there. and why that's important to me is that we regulate. so that we regulate. so he gets back to our regulatory roles in our inspection regime. if i'm not training that next generation to be in front of industry rather than liking it, then we will

become an impediment and not a facilitator of this commerce as well. we are paying very close attention to that. the next piece. the next piece of that, we are investing in the coast guard like never before. we are building, we just build the second phase of our response cutters, hundred 54 feet in length, just doing yeomen duty in human duty in the straits of florida today. several occasions we've probably evaded a mass migration from cuba because we had enough shifts out there to stop them and interdicting most of those folks trying to find a better life here for the united states. as a master we be sending the ships to the mediterranean or gnc, there's an opportunity cost if you do that. if you do that we have a migration problem and a challenge in in the united states as well. so we go to the aid of the e.u. and then we leave our maritime borders exposed and those are the decisions that we have to make so we look at that as well.