you could've said the same thing with jews pre-world war ii. i'm not quite sure. [inaudible] >> there is no question that the it is more difficult to integrate muslims into europe, that's a contention that has helped fuel the support for the post justice and for the freedom party, the notion that muslims are fundamentally incompatible. there's 2 pounds of that. one is that they are already a very large muslim community in europe so europe has to have a way to figure out how to coexist with a pluralistic system.

that accepts ethnic and religious difference. but the second point and i heard this in greece throughout the 90s, there is hundreds of thousands of albanian immigrants in greece. if you handle it with some degree of equanimity, the children of those albanian migrants in greece who are muslim have integrated beautifully for the most part into greek society. if you invest in integration as opposed to marginalizing those communities i think the united states is pretty good evidence that you can pull it off without the kind of division and rancor and political polarization that europe experiencing. it has taking a while for europe to accept the fact that it has large native muslim populations. it has not been handled well in the prospect of yet more muslims coming in to which european countries have not had a really

good answer in terms of integration is intimidating and it should be. bringing in any culture but a significantly different or any communities that are different takes work. but that work if you do it well ultimately is beneficial to everyone. >> i'm sorry we'll have a few more minutes and their three people behind you. >> i find very interesting how you explained that these crisis undermines the european union but also the international refugee regime. i think to ask what has been the role given these conversations into the european union and turkey we can agree on actually contributing international convention on some national legislation, so what was the role of un hcr in those conversations? that is a really good question,

it is one that i'll answer very carefully. think unhcr has a very difficult job. it is an agency that has done tremendously good work over the course of decades. it has a particularly difficult context in which to operate when it is asked to do work in europe. its major funders come from europe. it is is hard to go against the will of your funders. the e.u. should of said this earlier, what was so striking in the e.u. response additionally to the crisis was that the e.u. did not want international help. the first reason why there was not an international response quite honestly was because the european union did not go to the united nations and asked for help, it did not want outside interference because potentially it did not want to be told, i think there's different logics to this and i can give me

different reasons why they may not have wanted it but one reason is they do not want the un to tell it what to do. but when the e.u. failed itself to address the problem it got the rest of the world off the hook because it said we can manage it, we could not manage it, the rest of the world looks at the e.u. and says it is your problem, i think that was the posture perhaps for the refugee agency certainly owes the posture of the russians who looked at it and said wait, this is the west problem. they sorta say that openly. and you broke the middle east so you should deal with the fallout from breaking the middle east. and this is is not an international problem, there is many countries that are not refugee hosting states or refugee producing states. only 20 countries that accept any refugees through the resettlement program. most of the 193 members care

more about migration, we have not talked about that very much. they came about migration. they care more about migration and having an international system of migration that works better than the current one than they do about refugee issues. >> unfortunately this is going to be the last question. >> thank you so much for the interesting talk. >> reporter: question is twofold but i will keep it short. what in your opinion is the role of the u.s. in this crisis and what should the u.s. be doing, what could they be doing better? what would would your advice be to activists and people living in the u.s. and germany, i would be be interested in knowing what one could do here living here how we could promote and create more political will to move things forward in the u.s. as well. >> that's a great question. in terms of activists i think that people are coming up with

creative ways to be involved. in germany you have a tremendous number of, thousands of individuals, tens of thousands who have played a significant role in how germany has received refugees from refugees welcome witches which tried to match families and individuals that wanted to support newcomers to give them a place to live and to help them in some cases. i think they're called the godfathers. who helped support financially syrians in germany who want to bring family members over. they came up with a way way to essentially put pressure on the german government to allow for family reunification by saying we are willing to privately pay for the cost of bringing in family members of those were already here. i can go on about the number of creative things done in germany. but those programs in german

museums in berlin, that train refugees to become to her guides and to give tours of german museums to other refugees and to try to tie together the history of europe in the history of the middle east and to give them a sense of belonging and a sense of integration and participation. there is dozens of incredibly great things that have happened. i think in that context the most important single idea is this notion of private sponsorship. that is the backbone of the canadian ability to take so many refugees. the canadians will take 50000 refugees this year, as i mentioned from october to february they took 25000, about 40% of those are supported by

canadians. so there could be at church groups or in a group of five people are more in canada can go into a database and offered to sponsor a refugee which means they pay part or all of the cost of integration for the first year. they're the people and the united states, there's a wealthy businessman in york is offered to support 3000 syrian unaccompanied minors. we have not been able to figure out how that program can get started in the united states because of opposition from congress. because of complications with local laws that have to do with foster care and so on and so forth. they should not be insurmountable problems. i think generating grassroots support for sponsoring refugees and helping them integrate into communities is the number one thing i would focus on. actually a lot of americans who wanted to do that have rather than invest here because the laws don't allow us to have privately sponsored refugees have been supporting refugees in canada. there is that outlet. look, the u.s. working east at this point, 31 governors who oppose syrian refugees on really serious grounds of security, you

know the numbers on this that 700 and i think over 800,000 refugees have been resettled in the united states, not one has committed a crime. two were prosecuted for possibly planning a crime. this is not an issue, life has risk, yes it's true there may be a searing refugee who causes harm at some point but that is not a reason to ignore millions who need help right now. it has been rather shameless. >> please join me in thanking our guests. [applause]. [inaudible] [inaudible] >> now a german diplomat to the united states during a panelist

to discuss the challenges that quickly take on a simulated millions of migrants from places like iraq, syria, libya and afghanistan. and how the process could be ease. this is about about one hour and 20 minutes. >> the contributions, the first speaker is lori grant was the profession of international relations at the university of southern california, and the author of most recently citizens abroad states and the middle east and north africa and official stories, politics and national narratives in egypt and algiers, shall be followed by david fitzgerald and the chair at the university of california san diego, and most recently the

author of calling the masses, the democratic origins of racist, and last, will be an intervention by stefan peterman was deputy counsel at the consulate general of the federal republic of germany. so each speaker will talk for 15 minutes, please try to confine your time to 15 minutes. i will note just before the end of the period and will have 45 minutes to for q&a. >> good afternoon. i've been assigned the task of speaking about the domestic implication of the refugee crisis in turkey, jordan, jordan, lebanon and giving 15 minutes to do that. so i promise i would speak fast.

let me begin with a few general remarks and the first is that none of this can be viewed, or should be viewed outside the context of what we started calling the arab spring but which developed into something far worse, arab uprisings in general so that what is happening syria we also have dramatic development in libya and yemen which are also producing refugees but not at the same magnitude. second interesting characteristic of this crisis and i think it referred to in an earlier session is that refugees are largely living in urban areas are in rural areas but in towns. in other words most refugees, the vast majority are not living in what we think of as it refugee camps. even though we think about jordan for example we see these camps and we see southern turkey we see the camps but this is much more of an urban phenomenon. in other point is the searing refugee crisis is one of refugees from middle income country going largely to largely middle income countries.

so going on to europe and so the capacity for those countries have to be gauged also based on the fact that these are middle income countries. it's different from the refugee that you see another countries. let me turn to my march and go through this alternate first to turkey. the numbers they were talking about in any of these turkeys, turkey, lebanon and jordan are very dependent on who's given the statistics and what month were talking about. there's movement back and forth is also movement outside. but the most recent statistics given to turkish officials are 2.7 million syrians. this populace in the refugee population is concentration is heavily in the south and southeast of the country where the government does operate refugee camps for about 250,000 refugees. their people get access to healthcare and educational services and so on. these camps have waiting list for people.

that is because the syrians who are outside the do not have the same assistance and access to assistance to healthcare or educational opportunities. those people in most cases are struggling for the basic necessities like shelter food, and one can assume i think that in all of these cases, even when the searing conflict to and tomorrow that large numbers of these people are probably not going home or not going home anytime soon. let me say about the political context because all through these countries it's important to understand what is happening on the domestic front. prior to giving the searing uprising, searing and turkish relations web been quite strained have begun to improve. this is part of the presence policy referred to by some of his own automated summon outreach to the arab world. yet when the demonstrations began and the president syria be used to yield the protesters relationships between the two countries deteriorated quickly.

turkey actually became one of their most of ireland opponents. turkey them very quickly became involved in supporting the insurgency with the backing of the united states. then they conditions and continue to deteriorate and we had a full-blown civil war. turkey was deeply located in that. the regime has proven to be resilient under the protection that you may remember at the beginning of new york times, it was going to fall into months or four months, obviously none of that came to pass. turkey has continued to have a relatively open course across border policy that includes a border with individuals in human beings but also to immunization to aid rebel groups and some reports even gas mass for turkey in use in syria. this came from the context of the arab uprising in arab spring were initially the turks and

turkish government have decided with parties associated with the brotherhood that those parties ended up being defeated particularly in the case of egypt, parties that were supported in opposition been supported largely by the king of saudi arabia and the uae, turkey found itself isolated it has policy in the region. since it does with the king of saudi arabia there has been a gradual push to try between the two to counter what they what they see as granting iranian influence. but relations remain strained. this award syria has taken a tremendous toll and set a turkey itself. primarily but not exclusively because it has served as one reason why there has been a revival of the kurdish issue and turkish domestic politics. this is taken increasingly bloodied dimensions and of course the turkish government rejects the presence of or any suggestion of the possibility to

establish a kurdish policy in northern syria while at the same time most of those who are outside view the kurds who are fighting against isis is one of the best forces in the fight. so there's a contradiction of all there. in terms of domestic front to turkey what will happen next, as you may know there's recently a change in prime ministers. parliamentary elections will take place in the fall. the president is hoping that he will obtain additional ceased to be able to enable him to cease the constitution to put it into a truly presidential one. thus contribute further to one. thus contributing further to the authoritarian turn in turkey. again this is inextricable to what is happening and serious. a brief on the economic situation. prior to the the outbreak of the uprising of civil war and syria, turkey's economic integration with iraq and syria was a major success that they could point to. the overall volume of trade was not that great but it was contributing to a diminishing marginalization if you will of

the areas boring those countries. the conflict in syria has dramatically reversed that trend, security conditions in the southern frontier deteriorated and they close the border with syria to commercial traffic, meanwhile big dig has also blocked trade from turkey to protest some of the positions that they have taken. in addition, tourism which is a very important contributed to the gdp in turkey has taken a terrible hit. as a result of the refugee crisis and as a result of the increasing spill over into southern turkey of the violence from syria. in terms of government spending on the refugees come in the first five years that, from 2011 - 2015 turkish government spent 9,000,000,000 dollars. the amount that it is spending per month is a gradually increasing to a point of 500,000,000 dollars per month. that spending hundred million dollars per month. that's been a continues were looking at a much higher cost for turkey going forward. in terms of the refugee

presence, the presence of syrians in the south have strained the turkish schools, strained hospitals and other services, housing and food crisis have risen. when it comes to the refugees there is a difference among analysts for example if one looks and it does appear at least an initial. to have a positive impact on domestic consumption. certain degree to degree to which the refugees may have contributed to growth but most economists feel that is probably reached its limit. and the contribution is not likely to be a lasting one. at the same time one would expect along with this and impact on inflation. while the figures different it appears that higher refugee populations inflation there is higher than the national average. this is understandably. as for the unemployment rate is there is always an issue with

refugees creating jobs the statistics are not always clear. there are studies that suggest that at least 300,000 syrians thousand syrians have entered turkish labor markets. so there's some suggestion that this has added to that implement rate in turkey but a lot of these jobs are new jobs in the results of the increased presence of the refugees. there is also evidence to the place of turks, especially those on in the lower levels of employment effort they have been displaced by some jobs others however have lost their jobs. it's a very mixed fixture in terms of the economy and in terms of unemployment. let me turn to lebanon.

lebanon again on the front lines of the humanitarian crisis as mentioned in the initial presentation, the statistics differ but anywhere between one in four or one of five people currently living in lebanon is refugee. that includes -- refugees who have been in lebanon since 1948. anyway, lebanon has the highest per capita refugee concentration of the world. all's a little bit about palestinians in a minute, but it's important to keep in mind that they will be in part be shaped by early experiences and that is the case when it comes to lebanon and jordan. below the property line and blow the experience as well as -- they had an open door policy and then in 2015 there instructed to

stop registering in syria and then a sponsorship system was in place and new residents and then syrians with deportation without staying for the right paperwork. political context here is also very important. it was alluded to earlier think in one of the questions. lebanese government is you can say that it is in gridlock. lebanon has not held a presidential election since 2008. the president was elected then term excited 2014. basically lebanon is being governed by the council of ministers of the cabinet where we have different ministries controlled by different secretary groups. that limits the possibilities for cooperation and coordination of policies and the lebanese government historically has been

ill inclined to tend to the needs of its own citizen tree much to the needs of refugees. that certainly is not changed in this particular situation. this absence see state will not be compelled to ease the burden on refugees. so we and up with syrians in lebanon come again lebanese government to not allow for the establishment of any formal camps so people are crammed into rental houses and into and formal settlements. many of them in the belly and engage in various forms of agricultural labor. the security situation in lebanon is quite tenuous. there is a serious challenge from isis in the northern part of the country. there are also concerns about the infiltration of radicals of various sorts into some of the palestinian refugee camps. in that context, promised by by saudi arabia to provide

$4 billion to assist lebanon in further reinforcing its military, that deal was an old. several months ago it had to do with lebanon's reaction to the storming of the saudi embassy where the saudi sought the lebanese were not sufficiently supportive of them. this is all part of the larger regional complex of the world that has the domestic political party in lebanon and an ally in iran and therefore a nemesis of saudi arabia, the saudis continue to be extremely unhappy that has blood place of lebanese government. this is all really about that. it's not really about what the lebanese had to say about the storming of the embassy. turning to the economic impact. because of the president has has been without a president adds to further deceptions of instability. its economy was was reputed to experience a zero gdp

growth last year. they have been increasing protests on the part of citizens with the garbage protest was mentioned earlier, that is just one of numerous examples of dysfunction, corruption, and civil rights abuses in the country. as for the refugees themselves, they find themselves in extremely merciless position and did not have a right to be in lebanon, so they end up working and putting increasing pressure on wages somewhere between 60 and 70% of refugee children are working, employers are eager to hire syrians and palestinians because they're more vulnerable and they have to pay them less. there refugees who are engaged in labor or for sexual exploitation. , time to have left? another five minutes.

just very briefly, because of the palestinian refugee presence in lebanon is also important and they too have face cuts and assistance in poverty rates, recent cuts you may have note that unhcr is the agency that deals with refugees around the world. they do that, there's a separate agency that deals exclusively with palestinian refugees and that is you and rwa and that is -- so they have separate funding so the cuts taking place recently significantly affected humanitarian conditions for palestinians. palestinians have arrived in 1948, they have been restricted into the economy in which they have been illegally work so there generally, they generally find themselves unless they're paid which is further increases in poverty levels. now the palestinians in some ways are affected by what is happened because of the way the relations and a number palestinians factions had with

the government in damascus. because of what has happened in the damascus the palestinian groups have found themselves increasingly under siege in lebanon so in effect their protector so the government as a protector of any sort has been undermined. so we can look to syria as a major ally. let me turn finally to jordan. one minute. okay. i don't think i can quite talk that fast. but i will try. the statistics again with jordan are very depending on whether talking about official statistics from un agencies or the government. the government has a tendency tendency to for its own purposes to exaggerate the numbers that are reportedly there. government says there's 2020% of the population, in any case, there are clearly significant impact particularly on the northern governor in jordan and on the presence of the refugees, the majority that are not living in camps but

living in urban areas and on the syrian border. one again is to see the refugee crisis in jordan against the previous background in 19481991 people living in the golf in 2003, the u.s. invasion of iraq and so on. but these other crises in some ways are very different from the current crisis. the number of syria and jordan's have greatly exceeded the number of iraq is who during the previous waves. the kingdom has tried to control the inflow of refugees into the kingdom particularly in the last couple of years so now instead of a thousand refugees per day they let them 5200, some days not at all. they prioritize security. jordan, if one knows again what

contributes -- the third-largest number of recruits that have joined isis have come from jordan. so there is a concern about the degree to which jordanians are being radicalized and went back to me for domestic stability in the country. . . >> >> where people showing up on dangerous overcrowded

votes and graphs? and the young boys who washed up on the beach why did they risk their children's lives making those decisions? it is a serious question we started to discuss today we learned from the first panel only about 1% of those two are designated refugees will be eligible for resettlement in a place like canada or the united states. for the vast majority the world's refugees there only hope to get asylum is hoping to get to a particular territory where they can ask for protection there 140 countries around the world those that sign the refugee convention for a protocol estimate reaches that definition to be persecuted

on specific grounds but at the same time those very same countries are doing as much as they can to make it extremely difficult for people in that situation to reach a territory to ask for asylum there using all sorts of techniques some of those including visa policy sometimes they deliberately target nationalities sometimes governments pay off to do the dirty work of asylum control to translate the viet into europe and today in morocco the only way for someone to ask for asylum on the north african

coast with systematically the moroccan authorities as they get to those dates regardless of the situation. together these policies constitute a classic catch-22 and that goes like this. will he said the refugee definition they say we will let you stay if you come here but we will not let you come here. some of these policies are specifically targeting the asylum haters and those are from migrants whether economics or international terrorism but regardless if they are targeting asylum seekers they have disproportionate effects for

those who have legitimate asylum claims. over the right to extend our discussion of the european context talk about what is happening in the backyard united states and mexico and central america and cuba and the goal is to shed light on some hid in techniques of the rock-and-roll and the way the buffering of particular nationalities varies so tutored your focus to what some called the forgotten border and over the last 20 years u.s. authorities are calling the

defacto southern border with does a look like the buffer state if you go to that you will see people openly crossing that are headed to the u.s. a 70 percent across the border are headed to the u.s. and the mexican government makes no serious attempt to stop the that the border. and with many people those asking for asylum one of west riding the rails so doesn't have that that we see if you go to see a diego but it has a vertical border

where there is systematic control of the transportation routes leading north to the u.s.. in the u.s. has been doing many things from central america but going back to the '80s that make it difficult to cross the border including these up policy to make it difficult policies of the encampment and other policies to prevent central americans for reaching the u.s. border to keep them crawled in the south if you will. beginning in the 1990's the u.s. has been financing large scale deportation in currently under those initiatives under 2007 is a great deal of capabilities building of the southern border buildup.

lot of that has to its database construction, monitoring of biometrics to link the database and those air passengers having information shared with authorities it is a very tight level of cooperation between the mexican and canadian u.s. authorities. in keeping people from ever reaching mexico is to conduct advertising campaigns to broadcast the dangers because thousands of migrants have been killed including the vitoria's cases of mass kidnappings and murder. i don't have time to get into it the written as if they were produced by a

national government warning people of these very serious dangers. of the scale of the deportations but is going on for very long time. the ramp up of deportation they deported more than 3 million of central americans you can understating of scale to compare the numbers of the main three nationalities of guatemalans over honduras by comparing those deportations from mexico you can see in read beginning the 1990's was expelled from north of

the guatemalan border u.s. is catching up through 2015 in mexico is doing a vast majority of the work the mexican government estimates it was intercepting in deporting more than half of the central americans for those detained by the u.s. when it comes to central america almost all of those are detained in are deported which is very different the way those nationalities are detained in mexico. very few are asking with a

human rights protection but in practice it is extremely difficult to know they're eligible for asylum with is deliberately broken. the distance between cuba and florida is the same is between cuba and the yucatan peninsula of mexico. the large numbers of cubans using mexico as a bridge to the u.s. though the policy is somebody is caught from cuba there really returned if they committed to u.s. lamp whether the beach or the mexico border they are quickly rolled into the country with the key bin

readjustment act in almost all of them are admitted and in 2015 but it is barely discussed in the public's fear it is not the object of political heat and smoke to detain those people who are asking for asylum in the u.s.. why is that? there is a very serious pressure to contain the population in the preferences according to the

dry fly a policy the second is the strength of the anti-castro lobby in does not create the optics of disorderly migration around the issue. even when mexico has detained larger rivers of cubans they are quickly have let the amount that gives the person 30 days to leave. and then they will have taken the bus. in conclusion regency the buffering of central americans but as a much more

sophisticated buffering policy has been implemented from africa and asia to the middle east with large asylum seeking components. but to reach this country to offer protection because there is no other choice to do that illegally. [applause] >> good afternoon from the german consulate. has a mediocre diplomat we were invited along these brilliant scientist and i.m.

none of that. what i have to find a new situation and every morning. because it was just today i would not know who windy elections in austria. these are my personal opinions but there are some spirted overlapping sectors. i have two points of light to talk about. since the seminar is under the title of migration, i would like to make a few remarks:germany that sounds like a juxtaposition it has never seen itself as a country of immigration.

we have had them all the time to get to the eastern parts were occupied by the russians there were tens of millions in they were refugees. i remember as a kid but we have seen in the '60s with that economic miracle took place it is an for immigrants in coming to

germany in the day came. we didn't call them immigrants rand it was quite a clear program and if you had asked at that time they would have said the same thing. i go to germany that i don't like i work here with a lot of money bet is of most of them would have said.

the were the money is good you marry you have kids and go to school than all of a sudden you reach a point. to said feel much more at home. we have had immigration that we did not admit it. ended our public life to be honest but that has changed recently. it changed in the '90s when they caveman. there were strong groups in society asking for immigration law.

so for those rights and it is on its way now. and did not have a good procedure. in that that really opens is asking for asylum because many who come out of other reasons and those that would ask for asylum. and then is a hot topic in the political world.

we'll employ 1 million so did one year this is the country that has the infrastructure that is used to that we don't so that is quite a big group to deal with if you permit me that as a german i watched from here and that is the greatest challenge germany has faced if you talk to the germans there is fierce discussion every where.

people are very. about that ended is a topic that some of the best in the worst of my country you have seen aggression and attacks and arson against refugees coming only in this year in the figures went up in the first three months of 2016 and will do everything to fight against that. but the other consequences

is the emergence of a strong populist party that did not come as a surprise because of university but was with the party is expected that earlier to happen to look at the politics for america being the head of the consulate's democratic union moved her activity more and more to the left. abandoning the military service of homosexual marriage, with the excess out of nuclear power with the aims of the left-wing in the green party.

in to lose its influence terribly it is 19 percent of public support so by moving to the left she opened day voyage -- a boy in we haven't had a taboo whenever one emerges somewhere very early if their addiction was of a bit too radical they might even appear in parliament's and then the next election to disappear even though all the

neighboring countries have the strong rate wing populist parties so the deutschland that the merged in the state elections very strongly and i am not so sure there would be gone so fast enough for the first time out of her own conservative party that her party should move to the right and they're not sure the format for that's but the topic covered like to comment is the european union. with the influx of the refugees coming into germany with those presentations before.

and it was very clear that this must be a problem of the european union and i was shocked to see that the european union that i consider to be a union of values, obviously at that point when dealing with refugees did not show any common values. you can see if you go through the different governments of the european union today to find common sense at least for go to the history of the european union whenever there was a challenge they hammered out a compromise sometimes a native rebellion happy but

still it was a compromise. the european union has also developed him during a out a compromise but we were still far away in for me that is the biggest challenge if you permit me bigger than the refugee crisis itself with the war tore incontinent with the european union is a period of peace. and though those core elements to the day common immigration policy it is impossible every country has its own ideas and whoever

arrives will just have the window shopping and point number two even though it isn't popular cover we would have to construct a robust package so we have to protect against anything else we would have a coordinated integration even as governments and political forces but the society itself to bring a great effort people with other religions of the different mind-set that is a big task and it is a balanced distribution of refugees if

you say 1.1 million that is a big number of people if you see the european union has almost 500 million then it shouldn't be a problem so we will have to have a balanced distribution those are my thoughts i wanted to share with you if you have questions and i'll be happy to answer. [applause] >> so this gives us time for questions so again if anybody was to ask a question of up to the microphone on the right to. so please ask a short question and to the point.

>> and i actually have a request. what about portugal as the recovering states have to pay? i live in europe and half of the time in they say listen this isn't our problem we didn't benefit by it weigela does to pay for it?

with saudi arabia or iran or iraq, the united states, turkey, created this incredible disaster, then let them step forward and pay for it. >> now we will hear from the panel. [laughter] [laughter] cement bettis to the points we made this morning i would go back to the planes that were made with the first presentation in which are

related to the question of a common humanity the in and the degree to which there is a sense that we have responsibilities toward each other whether something has been created by our own governments or not, i don't think personally i would not want to compare the united states reaction to put myself from the perspective, with their reaction to saudi arabia were then the other countries that play a major role to foster the disaster and refuse to take any serious responsibility for the humanitarian crisis. i think, to take off my international relations at but the hat to somebody who

cares of belonging to which human race and responsibility to other human beings and hopefully that would be a motivating force but at all feel like that question is directed to me. [laughter] >> but it is very clear their international indications that they are a member of the united nations of international law of how to behave when refugees not gone your door as a subscribes to that treatment of refugees you cannot say at the moment somebody knocks i did not do what i am sorry to tell you but of

those international obligations. >> one question per questioner may be would get another chance. >> here's a question for the professor, if the refugees are located in other countries what effect will this have eventually on syrian society? with a selected group of people if they're able to leave the country how does this change the future prospects of syria? >> it is an extremely important question for it is difficult at this point to say because the outflow has not stopped so we don't know at what point is the

baseline once syria looks towards rebuilding we don't know how many were people will leader homage more construction will take place or how many will be killed but longer they are a broad the less likely they are to return. i am sure there are many studies that could be conducted now to help us understand better exactly not just regionally how those flows occurred but to get a better handle on the socio-economic class of those who have left a half has changed and interacts with people's employment to what extent are we really talking? in with the crisis is it agricultural and are they people that tend to leave

the country and entirely how many will still be there at the end but not where they started in the possibilities for going back to their original homes? is a moving target and it is very difficult to imagine what things will look like if in two years it is one set of parameters if it is five for 10 years it is very different. one of the things mentioned this morning that is extremely important is the degree that syrian children are not being educated the future residual and many of them are not able because of economic circumstances to continue their education so you are looking at an entire generation of children who are illiterate or they have

the good fortune to integrate into surrounding society tv accepted into europe what does that mean being except -- except tobacco and afterwards? so some of those things what are the major populations we also have dramatic ones with iraq because that has not yet healed the outpouring from libya or yemen with the destruction and devastation the humanitarian disaster so what does this mean? to call them a failed state does not capture what about for those structures that remain going forward? of the possibility for rebuilding? i don't know.

>> in the program it is for management of the migrant crisis in europe you point out of the border control and how does that work with the agreement were the europeans travel freely? how practical can that be? >> that it's easy to answer because traveling freely in between those states it never related to the outer borders of those areas so that has nothing to do with each other. >> you engaged in financial forensics? i am interested in the

corruption that is involved in "the new york times" a couple of weeks ago there was of a description of the $6 billion that had been achieved by the transportation it was reiterated this morning but there has been no comment by any of the presenters of the corruption that exist in all of these countries and i would be very interested to know your viewpoint as to how that may have affected the whole situation. >> i can speak to a the corruption in mexico where there is always a gap what the law says manpower works is in practice but that gap is enormous in mexico and every survey or every bit of anecdotal evidence, no matter your research method has shown there is very

widespread corruption that the police more than any other group present a real threat of danger to migrants including the asylum seekers setter passing through mexico that is just one data point the central authorities conducted polygraph test on the agents along the southern border in more than half were unable to pass because the level of extortion and very specific types of shakedown was at the extremes would is a very serious problem. >> a couple of things. i remember when turkey became dramatic and i was wondering, understood space

completely capable to control the borders or the shoreline but it seems the state with a capacity like the turkish state could do a better job to stop this movement of people were in power had control of course, the proof of that since the disagreement with the e.u. but i had read this a couple weeks ago for those had done volunteer work i expressed my surprise and had not seen reporting how beyond the cost of people who wanted to leave turkey to get to greece to understand the ships are rickety and many people die but what they reported of course, the various mafias that are involved with the different aspects of the

process from selling life jackets that our stuffed with cardboard that would leave them to sink as opposed to any serious flotation device, to the shore patrol that would spier some of the ships and cause them to sink and let others go by because somebody paid for their passage and others had not so the degree to which there is collusion literally with traffickers but state authorities is important to highlight the other thing with regard to corruption corruption, specifically not to refugees but look at the record of the united states and afghanistan with that humanitarian assistance

pouring in with the billions of dollars and things that nobody can account for any more not just a country like lebanon or jordan that has corruption. >> you mentioned in the right to weighing especially in germany but from my perspective there is a rise of their right to wing parties including sheer even in the u.s. but this is very interesting because they will disappear especially in europe so politics is very

important so what do you think so how will that have been in the future? and how is that seen? to get a response because of questions a and is long. >> to have the member states for the candidate that one

this is a very concrete phenomenon of how they had become recently with the next election. the you cannot ignore it to on the left part of public opinion my country i find that people obviously have a problem accepting things like that with democracy you have to respect people in vogue for both parties of course, we have clear rules but within the redlines of the constitution people have the right to vote the party that represents their political beliefs if you call yourself a democracy you have to deal with that.

a and it is a competition the other parties have to prove they're up to the challenge to the electorate to gain some ground for themselves they have reached a point they have understood that. to share of a little more of their concerns and then get more of the ground. >> i am not sure how much more different we can remain the way the u.s. has conducted policy under the democratic and republican ed ministrations in some cases more violent in one part of the region then another but the record to illustrate the

values that it proclaims to agreed to promote democracy living in a place like iraq for over a decade of repeated invasions with the drone warfare so if this is what one gets with the democratic administration that i assure the rise of donald trump phenomenon those who lived with these realities dash not sure that makes the whole lot of difference a be shocked with the rhetoric but they had to live with the brutality of the policy i am not sure

that makes a difference. >> i was struck by your remarks of the effects of the immigration and refugee crisis in europe that might even be worse than the courage existing crisis i interested if you wouldn't mind speculating on how troubling nor bad could that in terms of divisions within the union? >> of course, i am not a profit. claman optimist. the project of the european union that was completely destroyed to create a

political party i am the first generation in europe that has never seen a war things to the european union with a solo important to not only for as europeans because where people still think where the fighting might go on forever but now to hammer out a compromise is all the problems about bloodshed i cannot imagine me give fad up for one particular topic that should be solvable as i said europe is big and strong of

course, we could absorb the refugees but i pray every morning this project arrives >> want to get the thoughts because it is it important question i will phrases' differently but each of you have offered a diagnosis of all of this situation and have implied certain solutions but here is the question is i would phrase it looking at your diagnosis cancellations as one that will work if you hold to our relatively narrow expansion

of the refugee convention. >> or he could look at the solutions that the regime needs to be rethought to ask the question who is a refugee in the first place? are your solutions a challenge? or do they require we maintain that distinction? >> it is a good paying even though it has enormous problems but there is a difference compared to those that are looking for economic better life we should keep the red line

here it is so difficult to find black-and-white it is difficult but consider if we open the doors in consider ourselves a refugee as such i am not sure about political stability then in our country. >> it is important that the biggest problem of the provisions of the convention that may be added on a that was to be opened up the results would be much worse than what we have right now. >> personally i would like to see many more legal mechanisms to apply for protection regardless of where they are rather than

an analyst of be willing to you trade with those enforcement measures in return for a serious wide mechanism. >> if someone from syria is not under the control that they are able to apply for asylum and then travel directly to that place of refuge. >> for example, if the doors are left completely open if they have their refugee status determination and then are found to fit the refugee criteria then what happens? then they are not deported

am not in favor of mass deportation ban rather have a system that makes it possible to have this serious refugee status determination than the current system that has a deliberately high cost of human lives because of human transit. >> about the united states, leaving aside accepting refugees just the economic issues and cultural issues, many they could except from the of the least?

of you think it could be financed? >> for most of the 2000's they have been excepting of legal permanent residents per year and we're just taking something like 30 or 50,000 refugees a very small number clearly there is have massive capacity to take more if you fly from los angeles to new york is a big country and there is a lot more room for refugees. we need to be honest that there are cost increase settlement does incur cost depending on the human capital but of those investments are made early and they will reap returns in the future the yes we

need more appropriations for resettlement. >> the of ballpark estimate? >> i know how specific estimates to give you but this would require congressional action because there is nothing the president can do that would require congressional action and there is no political will to see that now. >> that the refugee crisis after the era of spring is not a crisis anymore it is a constant phenomenon. medical practitioners say the real crisis is the fact they cannot afford to

provide the enough care because the refugees are suffering from ptsd is the this as the real crisis to have their names classified because some testified to human-rights abuse and my question is is there a movement to the victims that testified to the care givers to build an oral history or archives of the human rights like in bosnia.

and at least it in germany with the eyewitness testimonies with the human rights abuses. >> documentation refugees' stories about whether specifically there are particular groups that are interested to focus on human rights abuses, that i simply don't know. >>

[inaudible] >> if there are no further questions, thank you to our panel. [applause] >> banks for attending this even. [inaudible conversations]

>> good morning everybody. of more than 14 years ago as al qaeda attached our nation against the terrorist is a taliban that harbor them over the years they still early efforts the military and intelligence community

and our development professionals we pushed al qaeda out of that camp to help topple the taliban we dealt crippling blows redelivered justice in trade after year and forces to take responsibility for their own security and given that progress a year and a half ago december of 2014 the combat mission in afghanistan came to a responsible and compared to those 100 troops b-s had their today fewer than 10,000 remain in now we help to lead the fight the forces are focused on to narrow niches of training and advising the afghan forces in supporting counter terrorist operations as well

as other terrorist groups and in short even as we maintain a case against those that are threatening us a major ground war in afghanistan but it continues to be dangerous for the past year and a half have lost their lives in afghanistan on behalf of security if we resolve to carry on the mission this is also not america's mission alone in afghanistan we're joined by 41 allies and partners of

6,000 troops and their own a partner of the afghan government and people to support long-term strategic partnerships and in fact, they continue to step up for their own security every day nearly 320 soldiers and police are serving and fighting many are giving their lives to defend their country and to their credit in the terrorist networks afghan forces remain in control of all population centers major transit routes and district centers and to push the taliban added some areas we recently removed the leader of the taliban.

nevertheless the security situation remains precarious even as they improve the security forces they are still not strong as they need to be the with our help they're still looking to improve critical capabilities such as intelligence, logistics' aviation and command and control at the same time the taliban remains a threat. they have gained ground and the suicide bombings because they deliberately targets more afghan men women and children are dying and with the global refugee crisis many have fled their homes and many flee the country i

will not allow afghanistan to be used as a safe haven that is why i review the strategy with my national-security team including commanders afghanistan and i made adjustments with more flexibility to support the afghan forces on the ground. with the national security interest especially after all we have invested over the years. far end with a very best opportunity to succeed general mickelson conducted a review of the security

situation in the military posture to get a fresh set of eyes and based on the recommendations of the chairman and the secretary from the national security team and international partners i'm announcing an additional adjustment instead of going down to 5500 troops by the end of this year we will maintain approximately a 400 troops into next year to the end of my administration they remained for focused to go after terrorist but maintaining forces based on the assessment with the strength of afghan forces will allow us to continue to provide support as they

continue to improve we can continue to support the afghan forces on the ground and in the year with critical counterterrorism operations we are reaffirming the commitment the decisionmaking today that tomorrow i depart for the nato summit in warsaw with the coalition partners many allies and partners will step forward with commitments of troops in funding to keep strengthening the afghan forces to the end of the decade pineda summit is an opportunity to affirm their contributions and uncertain that they will because they have of vital interest of my

decisions cents in interest to the taliban your now waging war against the afghan people for many years the afghan security forces continue to grow stronger and the commitment of the international community will into our the only way to end the conflict is through lasting political system and that is the only way white united states will continue to strongly support the afghan lad reconciliation process calling in all countries to end the safe haven from terrorist and

that makes future decisions in january we will have the most solemn responsibility of the commander-in-chief with the safety of the american people the decision to make is a solid foundation as well as the flexibility to address terrorism so in closing those bearing a heavy burden fewer americans imagine any capacity as president of focus our strategy on trading to build up the afghan forces it is my

belief it is up to afghans to defend the country because we have emphasized trading's of their capabilities we can end the major ground war to bring those troops back home but even as we work for peace to deal with the reality we cannot forget what is at stake in afghanistan this is her ijssel tries to expand its presence if a terrorist succeed they will attempt more attacks against us we cannot allow that to happen this september will mark 50 years since then 11 we will pause to remember the lives

lost to stand with survivors to have the scars of that day for those who rushed to save others and perhaps most partly surveying and afghanistan for our security. so with the memory of those making me a ultimate sacrifice including the patriots of the lives in afghanistan because with never forgets the progress their service made possible there remains one of the poorest countries in the world it will continue to take time to build up the

military capacity that we sometimes take for granted given the a dermatologist that they need the partnership of the world led by united states for many years to come. the with our support afghan is a better place millions are in school afghan have cast their ballots with the first democratic transfer of power the current government pursues reforms to strengthen their country in the overtime help decrease the need for international support that government is a strong partner to combat

terrorism that is the progress we hope to make possible that our troops have helped in our development personal the progress we can help sustain with the coalition in partner so i firmly believe the decision i'm announcing today to afghanistan and the united states may god bless our troops and may god bless the united states of america

>> good afternoon thanks for joining us after the long weekend of a policy analyst for right on crime for the policy foundation we are a the 501(c) three research institutes with a mission to promote and defend liberty to free enterprise in texas to educate policy makers with the debate with academically sound research and our reach right on crime is a one-stop source the work revolves around three key principles to fight crime in supporting victims and protecting taxpayers we have dozens of conservative

leaders legislators members of law enforcement and commentators and policy makers who will sign on to the statement of principles to be active than 40 states that the federal level to an for legislators and governors for reform to put public safety first is there where the texas model is one that continues to be replicated throughout the nation in conservative states the texas model is successful because it isn't about social engineering or flexing muscles to prosecutor put away as many people as possible it is about tweeting the system to fight crime and as a result saving taxpayer dollars what

i hope you will takeaways criminal-justice reform for a banned by conservatives to do with the reality how crime affects all americans although we have a slight change in our program today market is our policy director for the center for effective justice he was there before the reforms and has been featured by anyone who wants to change the system for good reason to. the efforts international project of reform testifying before a dozen of legislatures he will share the up policy details of how and why these reforms work.

>> we changed that up you're here to see grover but we didn't want everyone to leave he started americans for tax reform so i wanted to begin with a quote from the reagan state of the state speech from california he said our rehabilitation policy attacks nationwide attention and our prison population is the lowest since 63 so after that time frame we saw fibers sixfold increase in incarceration in the united states we went to measure our success by how many people were in prison so we have seen we have 5%

of the world's population one out of three adults have a criminal record one at of 34 americans are under correctional control and their 4500 that have a huge cost to this the cost has tripled since 1980 and one of the signatories said two-thirds of their bridges we built in three years and would be a scandal that is the recidivism rate 77 within five years. so we do know that for others they do get worse and one of the problems that b.c. meaning that there is no accountability so i found it to be to the medical

system into the education system looking at the practice of medicine and the efficacy of outcomes with the similar profile and regardless of the prior outcomes. with that monitor of progress. that preclude any changes as it goes by. where as in the criminal-justice system as people can't get jobs then you look at the education system that has its

challenges but most states have accountability systems to look up the test scores in principles give more power to innovate to. there is no data on the recidivism rate in you also see an education system with the instructional plan tailored accordingly where for example, with that cookie cutter approach and what is done is not adjusted as time goes by and those that decide to go to private school or home school but the prison system grows with the higher recidivism rate of more jobs and of

course, the education system they can vote with their feet eight you have evaluation but the prison system it is out of sight and out of mind the public has very little input. those are some of the challenges but there is a lot of good news we see so we have gone from one out of 100 with the sentencing reform and 30 states have gone from that comprehensive project where data is gathered to have a solution to increase public safety and most notable the juvenile incarceration is down 40 percent across the country. one of the most significant facts is the states that

reduce incarceration during the five-year period there was 33 states where they saw 13 percent reduction and that was a 11% so incarceration has diminishing returns then you get less public safety even to some degree some have scaled back like ohio there six month or one-year prison term is you're not getting them off the street for any realtime but taking their job away these are typically your nonviolent drug defense -- offenses so i will highlight the difference steps they have taken.

one of the big changes in the '60s there was us self-esteem approach like motivational interviewing and cognitive behavioral authority also technological evinces like opiate addiction and electronic monitoring we can match the offender with the program and that has been critical. one of the things we can do is have the right bubble of supervision they could be a deprivation caseload may be some have more reporting of 75 people see you can better allocate your resources. problem-solving courts they have increased drug courts and veterans courts in

general drug courts have a recidivism rate but now they're making sure it is people that would have been incarcerated so you have that judicial accountability and those that can marshall those treatment resources that nationally half the people coming into prison they have failed probation and half of those that did not commit a crime bed missed an appointment for left the county without permission or tested positive in many states you cannot even have a glass of wine if you are on probation sweeney to streamline those conditions but states that

adoptees approaches they get a curfew it away and tell these pile up it is comparable to what kid touching a hot stove then comes down like a ton of bricks with people on probation is to incentivize positive behavior. it has proven very successful of the way they have supervision successfully. of course, to have the white house bill those of ron

supervision in the number of empirical studies that have pounded that it does increase the rate of the program another strategy that involves the counties to say if you have fewer non by with low-risk offenders we will give you a share of the savings such as arizona or the juvenile system tied to reducing recidivism of those on probation increasing that percentage that are employed or current on restitution in arizona led to the crimes on probation with a 20% drop of revocation. another approach is to address the fact that one of five are released without supervision that is troubling for those with mental illness with no follow-up 36% hearses those

on parole and then you pay for that by not spending as much on prisons so now let me turn to profiling several states end of the results and then i am inclined to start with taxes in 2007 we were facing a projected increase of 17,000 new prison beds that was $241 million to the prison treatment programs and outpatient programs and so forth we have now closed period adult prisons is the incarceration rate is down

14% and the crime rate is down 29% since 2005. texas of course, what is more important look at the rate of people creating new crime so the case loads are lower so there is still lot of work to do but has been impressive now south carolina went to early with their approach to expand drug courts and the matrix for supervision or low-level offenses so based on the revocation saving 7 million day close to enough prisons since 2010 so very good results there. then north carolina has had

a very successful package that is reducing sentencing and they had similar reductions in crime. georgia is the state more recently but has expanded the drug courts while creating a safety valve and have addressed the reentry into - - issue by revoking drivers' licenses to say they cannot be sued for hiring ex offenders. and with the successful package in 2005 to reduce low level drug possession as a misdemeanor.

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