right. and, of course he has had failures. so has every great man. abraham lincoln lost the election for the senate two years before he became president of the united states. and and, michael bloomberg was fired by solomon brothers. best thing had happened to him. if he stayed at solomon brothers he would only be a millionaire. when he found bloomberg he payment a multibillionaire! probably didn't think it was a favor at the time but best thing that ever happened to him. the point is all great men and women have some failures along the way, and what happens is, they learn from them and become better. like, like, steve jobs who got fired by apple. came back, put apple back together again.

donald trump's successings far outweigh whatever failures he had. he wouldn't be a businessman if he didn't have some failures. but he has created a great empire and i'm going to tell you something that i believe he will tell you tonight. and get the american people to realize. he didn't do it on his own. this isn't a one-man show. he didn't build those buildings. he didn't put the nails in and the plumbing in and pour the concrete. he went and picked the best architects, the best builders, the best crews. he would be on the site to motivate them, to give them a sense that they're important. they're important people. even the people you know, bringing the coffee to the construction workers, he would go over and thank and say hello to. this is a man, although he is extraordinarily wealthy, this is a man who cares about people.

i don't like the term, little people or you know, big people, little people, or people with different social stratas or whatever, but this guy treats everybody in every social strata the same. my son andrew, who is here in the audience, has played golf with donald, probably 100 times. i have played time with him less often because i'm not as good as andrew, and andrew can help him win. andrew is a two plus. my handicap is a matter of top secret, which i keep on my earn -- email and i'm an expert and i'm an expert in cyberdefense and you're not going to get it. [laughter]. but it is nothing like andrew's. i have to tell you, he treats the caddies, he treats my police

officers, i've known donald for many years. when i was mayor of course i was surrounded by more police officers. i still am surrounded by police officers because i run a security firm. every time donald comes up and sees me, first thing he does is, he goes and hugs, sorry, he may not be italian but he is a hugger. he hugs my police officers. some of them, it is hard to get your arms around them. [laughter] i will give you a perfect, i don't know if sal or george is here today but, they, both of them are with me. before he comes up to me, he goes over to my police officers, shakes their hands, thank you. got everything? says, you want to have lunch? you're not on the job anymore, you can have lunch, don't worry. this is a very, very good man,

and he is a very smart man, because he knows that by doing those little things, that is how you engender that exceptional performance, that gets you great results. i will tell you that is the key to my success in the city. it wasn't me. i had great people but i loved them. i cared about them. i had their back. they knew i did, and they then went out and did exceptional things and i got the credit for it. and donald trump understands this better than anyone else. that is what makes a great president. what makes a great president is a man with a great executive, or a woman who is a great executive who knows how to select talent, know how to motivate the talent, knows how to evaluate the talent, knows how to get rid of people when you have to, sometimes you make a mistake. i certainly did, at times. and that's why he is going to do great things for us. he is going to do great things

for us, because he has the ability to delegate and ability to lead that we haven't had in the white house, i don't think, since ronald reagan, who was a natural executive. [applause] so of course this is an anti-hillary vote. i can't imagine under any set of circumstance, you know how she could possibly get elected. but, we're fortunate that it is more than that. we're getting someone, who i think is the right person at exactly the right time. we're getting someone from outside of the washington. he has proven that knows how to pick good people, by picking an excellent vice president. [applause]

that's a, that's, that's like prism, that is like a looking glass into what you can figure out what kind of cabinet he is going to put together. the choice of vice president is so important because it tells you how the man is going to make his decisions. so what he do? he went and found someone who balance some of the things he needs to balance. he found a governor, one with an excellent record. . .

[cheers and applause] him and him and him it is just a realistic condition your eye and what you may or your i.d. that every single thing i did was going to be ripped apart by "the new york times" and by what we now call the media, putting on people on welfare to work. we have people collecting three, four, five, six times. which i did and which the mayor has taken out. and he is taking an enormous risk by doing that. he knows this better than anyone

else. do you know any priest, and a minister, and a rabbi that would have the slightest objection if i put one or two of my police officers in their church or their synagogue or there she will. they probably asked me to put more in. no decent is going to care if i had a police officer looking to the wonderful things you should be thinking about their religion the only ones who don't want the police officers there are the one to our planning the bombing that are taking place, like the bombing of the world trade center and the 93, which was planned in a mosque in new jersey. through the years, i hired

police officers to be in those mosques so i could keep track of the good ones and not run -- and the bad ones. taken out to political correctness, overcoming political safety. in fact, it is stupid. [applause] so, i am going to conclude by asking you to give me a favor. i think i was the third republican mayor in the 20th century. laguardia, but in the end me. only two of us remain republicans. [applause] abraham -- by one new york city

twice with all of your help. once close, once an alien lied. voted against abraham lincoln. pretty classy city. but new york as you know is a lot bigger than new york city. we've got nassau. biggest margin for ronald reagan, 1980. bigger than orange county, california. we have subtle, westchester, orange, putnam. all. we've got the whole middle of the state. new york is just like pennsylvania. you like to hunt. you want to make sure nobody

takes their second amendment right to bear arms. right, right? [applause] and you want -- how about we put people back to work by striking, hydraulic drilling. [applause] how about we rebuild upstate new york to what it used to be for the industrial capitals of the world. [cheers and applause] and god has put the resources in our earth to allow us to do it. pennsylvania is doing it and it did it under a democratic

governor, ed rendell. a democratic governor because he cared about his people more than he cared about being terrorized by the out-of-control environmentalists. i'm an environmentalist. i'm just not in net just not a nutty, out-of-control environmentalists. [applause] all of this is possible we can win. i want donald trump to win and i believe he is. but i want him to win new york. [cheers and applause] i want him to win new york. [applause] we've got some pretty good

surrogates from new york and we are not giving new york. hillary, we are going to kill you in upstate new york. you are finished in nassau and suffolk pattern i'm -- putnam. [cheers and applause] and i know that several of your neighbors can't stand you. we are going to take you out in new york and we are going to do it the way ronald reagan did it, the same break down of those between the city, the suburbs and upstate new york. if we can take you out in new york, while here we are going to wind date and we are.

we've got a much better candidate that allows the american people to understand and to appreciate. we will have a candidate with the skills to communicate. i've only seen matched by maybe ronald reagan, maybe bill clinton as a great communicator. maybe obama. great communicator, terrible president. but i think more than day -- not believe more than that. he understands modern american communication better than anybody. i think he understands american television better than anyone. and i think he knows how to overcome the distance manages against him in the disadvantages of all the money hillary had by his complete domination of the free media. you can't go anywhere in the world. i recently than in germany and

in china and israel for the first question you're asked is not what is hillary clinton like, but what is donald trump like. this election is about him. it is not about her. he is going to prove tonight and throughout this campaign. we are going to wipe her out. [applause] thank you. thank you very, very much. and finally, thank you very much for all the support you have it in me over the years and for the help in making the mayor. thank you for allowing me to participate in some of your campaigns or i support you, support your opponent when i want you to. [applause] thank you to my friend, who i love. i'm not going to go have this guy because he might punch me in

the face. i don't know. thank you to add for making this great party. [applause] and thank you for what you do for the people of new york. the republican majority in the state senate, the republican minority in the assembly, when i was mayor saved me so many times from the insanity that shelley silberman, who's now sitting. [applause] he saved the city so often that i owe a great debt of gratitude. whenever i am called to help the assembly candidate, senate candidate as you know, i always say yes because i owe them.

thank you very much. god bless new york and god bless america. thank you. [applause] >> rudy, i thank you. you know, you invoke to things in your speech. one that rock back memories. who would have thought years ago when tricia and i lived in the white house, you know, we could've slept in the lincoln bedroom, but we lived in the ordinary room from the second floor of the white house because

the lincoln bedroom is left just the way it was when lincoln was assassinated. some places are sacred to the lincoln bedroom estate. the white house is sacred and we will elect donald jay trump the president of the united states and make sure clinton does not live there again we are not going to let us in. you know, you mentioned how the new york delegation right down in front of you when you gave a great speech at the convention, it was fantastic. how were you inspired by the new york delegation and our cheers. you may have noticed last night i was not with you. i was invited to be in donald trump's box and so i got to watch the entire floor. the fact is that in all the

chairs, the chairs for governor mike pence, a great candidate for vice president, and you cheered for him. and i also notice how you live there room for ted cruz as he committed political suicide last night. new york has been the leader throughout this process. you know, more than a year ago when the state committee decided that finally new york was going to have a decisive primary and on april 19th, and the only primary on that date come away pick it that way several weeks before when the three candidates remaining good campaign throughout new york state. it was in new york i may want overwhelmingly for the first time, donald trump won not just the majority of the primary, but

more than 60% and 61 of our 62 counties and he became because of that the presumptive nominee of our party and night before last year made him the nominee of our party in new york state has taken the role and elect dean the next president of the united states and i thank you for it. congratulations. not to finish this one enough, tony a few, out. do the briefing. >> credentials and tote bags. the schedule session, all delegates expect it to be in their seats. bring up the subject. we got a call late last night. maybe you know there was a proposal to put photo i.d. summit delegates badges. we all know everyone wants to enjoy.

there is a possibility to trade from delegates to others. they asked us last night to be very cautious. if you want to let someone in your delegation or a friend user credential, one person per credential because we only have 95 seat on the floor. if you cooperate with us. it is not as it is just the coa i.d. the best we can to cooperate with them. if those of you who would like some additional tote bags, they are all out in the lobby for you. the schedule is for those who want to go to the rock 'n roll hall of fame, buses leave from the lower lobby at 11:30 or so. the last thing i would like to say is i want to thank all of our staff who have helped me this week. [applause] you know what they have done and

i'm not in the habit of singling people out, but i would like to single out one person who is a volunteer, who made sure everybody had a place to sleep. virginia did a great job with the housing. [applause] are there any questions if you can ask me not to have any more questions. before we conclude, say a couple of words. thank you all very much. you have spent re. -- you have been great. [applause] how are we doing? i can't hear you. great. you know we cannot win. first of all, i want to thank you for all the funds you have given us so we can make sure

that everybody has been said here and we have been able to elect and reelect all the wonderful leaders to take new york.and also the united states of america. i would like to recognize someone who is 94 years of age and who says imf old as god thinks i am and one day older than i was yesterday. she is 94 years old and this is her 12th gop convention. we'll be right. where are you? ruby wright. [applause] furthermore -- okay, thank you. i would also like to ask those of you who are serving in the armed forces or law enforcement who will have served to please stand so we can recognize you.

[applause] furthermore -- furthermore, we have a few more event. nine tourists in afghanistan and to all the parts of the world, highly decorated and his name is william way. william, please take them out. [applause] now, ladies and gentlemen, if you have not given to wendy long, please go to www.-- let's do that. i ask you, without your support, we are not going to be able to win. we will win november 8th. not only are we going to take new york state back, but we will let the 45th president of the united states, donald jay trump. so, i want you to go out there and tonight because i was

watching for them out there yesterday and everybody around us to see was moving in new york was quiet. i want you to night to dance, to scream and let's make this the perfect year and we are going to take america back. the last thing is, let's not forget our men and women in blue. thank you, thank you. let's win. [applause] >> a reminder if you missed any of this morning's new york delegate brent is coming up and watch online anytime at c-span.org. we understand mayor giuliani is holding a briefing with reporters outside of this room. we plan to bring that to win a couple minutes. we need to reposition our cameras. while we wait for that to get started, dnc chair debbie wasserman schultz spoke about the shortcomings of the republican convention, pointing out the divisions in the party

and the lack of diversity and the poor turnout. >> chaired the democratic national committee, debbie wasserman schultz, thank you for being with us. >> you're welcome. it is my pleasure. >> how much of this convention have you been watching inn cleveland? >> well, i've seen quite a bit of it. i'm not to be divisive and then there's the rhetoric has been coming from their stage. and to see how a comfortable speaker ryan was, so much so that he was really unable to wholeheartedly embrace or support donald trump or even speak his name more than twice during his remarks. you can see throughout the whole tenor of the convention that they are really training all of their messaging against hillary clinton and really doing nothing to actually lay out their own vision yesterday was the theme must make america work again.

they laid absolutely no policy anyton how they would create jobs or do anything to continue to move our economy forward. that'll be a stark contrast to what we see in philadelphia with their convention. >> which is why want to follow what. as you see what we've been talking about this week, are you tweaking changing, taking a second look on how it will unfold in philadelphia? >> we have been preparing all want to let hillary clinton andf democratic visions for how to continue to move our economy forward, to build on the economic progress would like to make under barack obama. we came out of the worst economic crisis since the great depression, that really was republican economic policies that focus on taking care of people at the expense of the middle class. we know that we've made progress, but we need to really help people feel that they are

on more firm ground and make sure the economy works for everyone. that is the theme you'll see ll running through our entireverse convention. you will hear our speakers, wide, diverse array of thef ac leaders in that to this talk about the virtues of hillary clinton and what a fantastic president she will make, but also clearly lay out the a policies and vision that the democratic party five. that is not what is going on. our hall will be full, unlike the republican convention in which they struggle to actually fill the seats because donald trump -- [inaudible] >> will bernie sanders have a primetime spot next week? >> yes, senator sanders will be speaking on monday evening in prime time. you haven't been announced yet, but absolutely, senator sanders will help take it off. >> finally, congressman, let me ask you much her home state of

florida. hillary clinton will be in florida on friday. large speculation her running mate will be announced friday oh saturday. any insights into the timeline? >> we're thrilled secretary clinton will come to florida. the kinsler lindo in south florida as well. she is in the final stages of making a decision about who thet vice president will be. i don't think there have been any decisions about where thatce will take place. it is certainly going to be in dramatic contrast to the ambivalent and she certainly will be announcing it in more than just two weeks.

>> representative debbie wasserman schultz coming of a busy couple days. thanks very much for your time. >> well, quick apology. we hope to get mayor giuliani's remarks, but the event with reporters wrapped up before we were able to get there. we will move on. news this morning from another political event to pass onto texas senator ted cruz told a state delegate breakfast he will not vote for hillary clinton, but is also not ready to back donald trump with ample heads up not planning to endorse the republican party nominee and they've spoken three days ago when they made clear that an endorsement would not be coming and signed to back the republican nominee. i'm not in the habit of supporting people who attacked my wife and attack my father. read more from that article at "politico".com. today of course is the final day of the convention, which gets underway at 720 eastern with the theme make america once again. speakers include marsha black earth, ohio governor mary fallin, reince priebus, jerry falwell junior. donald trump's daughter, ivanka will introduce a starter before

he accepts his party's nomination. we do have a preview program that starts at 5:30 a.m. -- 5:30 p.m. eastern. you can listen to it on the app and get video on demand at c-span.org. ♪ >> the most important thing -- that would at least address the most important issue which is a national debt and entitlement. clinton knows that we have to reform entitlement. she just doesn't have the guts to come out. i don't think trump understands that because the entitlements will squeeze the entire budget and they know it. they just don't have the guts to say anything about it. >> a job creator and we are really excited about having a job creator in the white house.

>> i am 71 years of age and i'm still actively engaged in the practice of law. most important issues to me and this year's election in our first for obvious reasons, but the second one is balancing the budget and eliminating the federal deficit. it is inconceivable to me that these candidates can be running and no one, not one has addressed valid in the budget and reducing the deficit. that is critical to our children and grandchildren's future. thank you. >> i think it's been really great having this attention in cleveland. it's brought a lot of business, just recognizing the great city. i think it will be really great bringing a lot of money into the city and stuff. and yeah, i think it was on the map not only in our own country, but also the world.

>> the economy and getting america back on the right track, subsidizing other governments like south korea's military in japan and start having america work for america. that is why i support trump. ♪

[inaudible conversations] >> good afternoon and welcome to the washington institute. i'm the director of the institute and i'm pleased to welcome all of you to our conference center for today's event. there's a hell of a lot going on in the middle east. there was a lot going on even before the events of last week in turkey. it bears noting that, that today

and tomorrow the coalition against the islamic state is gathering in washington. the, these events are occurring about important events are going on on the ground in syria including a tightening of the siege on aleppo, an event which regrettably isn't making the headlines giving everything else that's going on in the world. just this morning the u.s. treasury department announced sanctions on al-qaeda leaders operating inside iran, a step which compels us to stretch our imagination about who is part of the problem and was part of the solution on different aspects of the fight against islamic state.

and then, of course, the events of last week in turkey, events which are still playing themselves out. events which came on the heels of what happened in nice, which so quickly emerged and then was overtaken by the visuals and the urgency of what happened in turkey. this is not a slow summer, sadly. for what is going on in this neighborhood. i mention that just as context for today's discussion because today we are going to do a deep dive into the events of turkey, into the who, th what, the why,e so what, the what next.

but it is important to put all this into context, not in some grand scheme but day-to-day real-time context for everything else that is going on here and before today's event is out, i'm sure that my colleagues here will talk about how, what is going on in turkey, effects and what will be effected by everything else that is going on in the neighborhood. we are very fortunate at the washington institute to have i would say two of the most outstanding interpreters of turkish politics, cultural society and framers of the policy issues surrounding turkey

and u.s.-turkish relations here on our staff. and i think it is just gratuitous that they are both here in this third week of july to be able to offer their insights on what happened, it's important, its relevance and what america should be doing about it. so without further ado let me introduce my colleagues. speaking first will be -- has been, as you all know, a remarkably prodigious fixture in helping us understand what is going on in turkey over the last several days. it is the institute's bio family fellow and director of our turkish research program. he is the author of the rise of

turkey, 21st century first muslim power. i can only add to that, that he is, i can have many things to this, but in the last several days in addition to all the public advice that he is given to people around the country and around the world, he is been a source of great and wise counsel to our government in helping you navigate the difficulties of the current situation. sitting to soner celeb in speaking after will be ambassador james jeffrey. jim jarrett is a distinguished fellow here at the institute. jim came to us after concluding and enormously distinguished career in the u.s. foreign service, which include among other things ambassadorships in albania, iraq and, of course,

turkey, and serves as deputy national security advisor in the bush administration. jim has his finger on the pulse of all the policy issues that concern turkey and the u.s.-turkey and nato relations. i think the combination of having jim and soner address issues related to the turkish try to attend is really a comprehensive look at everything on the agenda -- coup. with that i will turn to soner. then we will move the podium away and we will have quite some time to get into questions and answers with our experts. soner. >> thank you, rob. good afternoon, everybody.

i'm pleased to see a lot of familiar names and faces from around town. this is indeed a very sad day for us to have a discussion on turkey. i want to start by expressing my deep and profound sadness over events of the last weekend. i think for those of us who view the report in turkey or study turkey, one of the most -- the countries capital ankara which is have been occupied at any time in history -- definitely a nefarious plot against the country. what happened like to do is look at what happened, and move on to what it means for turkey stability and third look a just policy and what washington ought to do. little over 10 minutes or so. i'm flattered to be joined by my colleague ambassador james jeffrey. i'm humbled by the also. so clearly what happened was an attack against the constitutional order in turkey,

a coup plot that failed, an assassination attempt that failed against president erdogan. i think, i would like to take how i think events unfolded last friday july 15. in that regard it's useful to put events into the context of turkish coup reason and failed country. 1990 7a soft coup. 2007 there was a coup and now a new phenomena. soft coup it was not a coup. the military world thanks to a civilian neighborhood issued a declaration with a government which at the time had an islamist partner. the government took the way, step down. it was really no coup that's what it was a soft coup no blood spilled the good work. 2007 e-coup the military put a warning on its website warning the government is limited more. the government did not step down and out 2016 very different than the previous attempts.

what i think this was was a factual uprising within the military. innocents at home at about as we see from the general duplicated 20% of the generals were involved in it were somewhere around the 50. factual uprising that staged itself to look like a coup hoping that it could overtime harness a critical mass among officers that convert itself into a real coup. that did not happen. it did not go from being a factual uprising to be a coup. in the sense i could call this a calendar feed thank you. congregate because of the senses of the term, because it was made to look like a coup and it was badly executed as a nefarious plot. why was a badly executed? because it did not have widespread support republican support in the armed forces. it looks like within the air force and to an extent the police for the countryside. did not have significant support

among the army which is the largest component of the military, 65% of the turkish armed forces is the army. it's also, i think this nefarious plot although the assassinated went to target president erdogan, thankfully they were not successful. he was able to a. no, make it appear to his followers. the plotters were in conceived, ill executed coup, they miscalculated. they went and took over turkish public tv. if you're over 1660 intricate is what you which used to watch. if you're under 40 you never watch this network because it's not among the top 20 networks in turkey. erdogan pic up his smartphone, did an interview on pace time, put on facebook. called his supporters to rally. i was o a scene in so i could se on tv.

by 7:15 p.m., 1:15 a.m. in turkey when the face time call without, filled with people. it work. this was the victory of the digital over analog to digital been the smartphone. analog being the ideal going to public tv and having a broadcast message telling people this is a coup. it didn't work. tthe are the reasons y the county feet coup did not convert. the police which was program and of the government of course 250,000 men strong blocked the army from leaving it's better than taking over the city. it's the numbers. the army is about 6000 men and women. when you take out the air force, the armed forces, take out the army which is 65% and considering from other forces also the with limited participation. entrance of numbers there were probably more people with weapons at the end of the day than they were pro-coup even as it was launched.

at the end i think it's really one of the best analysis on this upgrade is by turkish analyst who suggests in his you there was a core group of officers lined with a movement and as well as office is not outlined with a movement in what he calls inhat i call a factual insurgency which not only failed to think also has left huge deal of bloodshed as well as a very polarized and deeply divided country. and i think that's really moving fortress the outcome of this. if it had succeeded it would've been an oppressive place run by the generals and there would've been a horrible outcome. the coup field but turkey still going to be oppressed, unfortunately. i think that is a lot to do with the political strategy of president erdogan for cents 2003

built a personnel the -- so erdogan is the underdog in his youth he portrays himself as the victim who is about to be undermined by conspiracies and, therefore, it's okay for him to crack down on those conspiracies before the undermining. this has worked in 2013 and other examples of that. now this theory that there's a conspiracy to undermine erdogan has its legs because there really is a conspiracy. there was a plot. as farsi concerned or his supporters are concerned, the threat to overthrowing is more real than ever in this is really bad news for turkey's democracy. i think it gives erdogan carte blanche first of all and this is how we should see the continuing of thousands, tens of thousands of public officers being fired, thousands been arrested. the government has a legitimate right to go after the coup

plotters. erdogan sees the movement to be 100% behind this plot and he will treat them the same way the united states treats al-qaeda. nothing less than that. but i think beyond that, erdogan's crackdown will extend to democratic dissent and opposition to its already happening. there's a band banning all academics and other overseas but i i can put all the turkeys academics are pro. maybe they're trying to forget what's going on but i think this is of course good to be a complicated situation in the sense erdogan supportable except oppression as all the way to crack down on future spears sees and his opponents will find it increasingly difficult to oppose if not impossible to oppose and accredited. erdogan used it to become an ann exec is still president.

he is head of state making changes to the constitution to be head of government, prime ministers position. that would making the most powerful person in turkey ever since -- and arguably as powerful. the problem is this new ataturk, erdogan, will be embraced by only half of the country and despise the guy left because of ofthe deeply polarized nature of the society is created i think to where he is. i think that coup plotters have taken that one step forward and through turkey into the best. my major particularly i think the u.s. government in terms of turkish domestic politics is this is of course an incredibly real risk for turkey's political system to fracture. for the first time in decades i think we have to look into that. moving forward i want to look at applications for u.s.-turkish relations, military cooperation. let me look at military issues first. there are both short-term and long-term implications for turkish military. in the short term this looks

like there's a faction in the military so erdogan will now start a thorough review of the turkish military which means military operations will be frozen for that review to be carried out which means the u.s.-turkish cooperation will occasionally be frozen as an indirect result of solving what has happened over the weekend when flights were suspended for about a day. i think it was because of the covenant which i can make sure that turkish command of the base would turn himself in and was implicated but, of course, in washington the reading was his turkey punishing the united states? i think that is the perception turkey -- review of the military moving forward. he believes the movement is 100% of the plo corporate turkey will press for his extradition and this will become a dominant issue in bilateral ties. i think that i should treat that case seriously. my friend and colleague has a

lot more to say on this but i think turkey should all do issued as of you streets this case seriously and not link the extradition with continuing u.s.-turkish cooperation against i suspect if turkey links those issues i think it will backfire. ever presents the u.s. government with the choices of either extradite him we don't cooperate with you, i think u.s. government in which i thing the award certain it didn't feel that erdogan a decision from mike back up into the and isil operation from elsewhere. that doesn't help turkey. i think we need to keep separation of these issues. at the core continue with strong turkish cooperation and the military should increase operation. by recommendation is to improve our isil cooperation, at the same time to push on a separate channel for the extradition so these two issues are seen as separate. in the long-term of course the

turkish military will be talented nearly a quarter of the gems have been implicated. the air force will be crippled. it will look -- they will lose hundreds of pilots. of course that takes what, $4 million to i think training an f-16 pilot so the big ramifications for turkey moving forward. turkey will eventually raise that talent began but it will take a while so that's a lot of anti. the long-term impact of think is the military is the most respected and trusted institution in the country is now unfortunately going to see a freefall in its respectability. in a country which is already so divide and polarize into two camps, supporters and opponents of president erdogan almost equally split about 50% line. this could be worse news than the military's exit as the only national, virtual the altered participate in and i think this has ramifications because david will erode governmental and

public support for the military with implications for military as a keyless security partner. what is my main foreign policy take away for washington moving forward? the mood in algorithm is very dark, very nervous and angry. -- in ankara. the assassination team which went after president erdogan is still out there some in southwestern turkey. not still can't, not accounted for. this is in the hinterland so you cannot understand the sensitivities in ankara that this is the over of course. there's something believe that washington is behind the coup. the most program papers are running daily columns by the most prominent colonists. for the first time in recent memory i think their search discussion about turkeys nato membership and not in washington but in ankara.

because people look at this edit think even mind forthcoming put in erdogan meeting first week of august. i think putin will basically if erdogan will contemplate leaving nato, putin would use this meeting to say welcome to we will take it in and don't worry about our past incident. we will get a longer i think u.s. policy is to take into account the emotional and fragile nature of the turkish elites in ankara. turkey can take -- including nato putting together, there's a chance president erdogan could tilt to europe your reaganism. i think my foreign policy suggested washington for what america can do is to tread carefully and shook turkey attention and care, which means being tough, really tough. if you need any examples you can go to my op-ed on erdogan

transgressions. but at the same time keeping the nato issue out. i will end with this and i know jim has a lot more to wait on you was turkey. so thank you again, everybody, for coming. >> very useful. [applause] >> thank you, robin. welcome everybody. picking up on what soner said i just want to say a few points about where we are now in look at this the outside and where if you were all sitting in the white house or the department of state how this would look, might look, and what to do about the first of all as soner said, the number one victor in all of this so far by an extraordinary

margin is the president. erdogan has gained enormous power and at least a part of the population that supports him, and almost legendary status by having escaped the team sent out to get him, flowing through the skies and almost was shot down supposedly. and then, of course, he turned the whole thing around itself with this message from the cell phone. given this power he's going to use this, for small to try to ensure that nothing like this happens again. and secondly to build up for this power which has been his goal since the injured politics a long time ago. what we are seeing right now, which is up to the present and limited primarily to the bureaucracy, uniformed and civilian, and involves the sort of arrests and suspensions that

are not frankly uncommon in turkey, although the mess that we have seen appears to be really something new at least since the 1980 coup. in addition, erdogan is just completed a meeting of the national security council. they took some decision that are supposedly major and cable run those by the cabinet before announcing them, but probably they will empower the government to take even further actions to use even more authority to secure control and ensure that nobody pulls a coup like this again. the motives are mixed between gaining more power on the one hand, and defense for protecting oneself on the other. at the same time out on the streets, erdogan and his political apparatus and a key part are constantly urging crowds to go and continue this sort of people power we saw

effect on the evening of the 15th in stopping the military units that were deployed. there's three motivations for potential motivations, for what we are seeing unfold right now in turkey. what is that the movement would certainly was widespread in the judiciary and to some degree in the police may be really very, very extensive throughout the bureaucracy. no one when bureaucracy. no one windows because of the difficult nature of penetrating that organization. it's a cultlike organization like many other organizations in the middle east and elsewhere. it's very difficult to see how far its tentacles has been. it might be there's a real rationale for running of all these people because many of

them may be to one another degree involve in the plot. a second motive may be their servant is a movement, that is the plot, there was an involvement in the coup, but essentially the government is spreading the net very, very widely to get rid of anybody who would see as even a potential ally of berlin. that is if you're not in a verifiable way my friend, he may be potentially my enemy so, therefore, perhaps best to send you home or send you to prison. that's the second potential motivation. the third one is as erdogan said the night or the day after this is a gift from heaven to he sees this as an opportunity to expand his power, and by encouraging the bureaucracy of people who are not on teen erdogan, t. akp.

if you to get rid of all these people permanently and very mind again that we cannot know yet in turkey. there's a long tradition of people being arrested, people pe thinbeing sent home, people been dismissed and they come back. but if it's different this time who is going to fill the slots? and pressure it will be people who will be very loyal and supportive to erdogan. regardless of what motivation of these three is driving what we are seeing unfold in front of us, this creates major problems for turkey and major problems for its relations with the u.s. and the rest of the west. turkey, given as soner said, the divisions inside the society, there is a unifying principle that to mobilize everybody beyond the initial let's hope this coup doesn't work. people will perceive what erdogan and the government are doing from the point of view that they proceed erdogan and

the akp for the last 10 years. that's a very negative perception. you will have a widening of the split in this society. we've already seen a downward movement on standard & poor's but you have an economic impact. typically these things are short-term, but over time turkey where the rule of law is called evermore into question, the court cannot be trusted to be independent and the country has got considerable internal turbulence. it's not a good bet for the sort of 21st century economic development that turkey has profited from and very much needs. so that's the second problem. the third one that will impact those directly here is human rights violations, challenges to democracy, serious questions about rule of law and how it is being applied and what we've

seen so far and what we may be seeing going forward. that's going to be a major problem between washington and the rest of the nato countries and turkey. we've already seen this in statements by secretary kerry and president obama and the president just made -- erdogan, concluded cautioning him about violating rule of law, challenging the media and other things. the problem with this is that we've been doing this for years with erdogan and he doesn't listen. there is no leverage effectively over erdogan. there wasn't before, there isn't now, on the part of the west. turkey is too important, and the other fights we have in the middle east beginning with isis, aching with the iranian problems, beginning with syria and on and on, are two

fundamentally important to the region and to international peace. and turkey is so central to this that the administration has only limited options. in general our options in terms of getting country that really serious about taking domestic causes of action to change those courses have been limited almost anyplace but in turkey they have always been extremely limited. and thus united states is going to have to be very open, very frank and stand up for its valued in terms of what we say publicly. how we will instrumentalize that, how we will get turkey to actually listen to us, it's a different question and that's going to be hard because turkey believes that we need turkey more than turkey needs us. it's a two-sided dependency but nonetheless this is a very, very dicey treated and it's going to be very, very tough. so i think the administration

has handled it very well but everyday something new will come up that could push this thing over the edge. and again not all of it will be mistakes out of washington. is a long tradition in turkey that predates this government and this leader of blaming the united states for anything that goes wrong anywhere in turkey or in the area around turkey. those of us who worked with the turks sort of got used to that. we never liked it but it came with the territory. but you can push this too far. the problem with that isn't invited. the problem with that as a habit, and you saw a very stark warning by secretary together did when we were accused by the minister of labor by being behind the coup. and you're used to bashing the united states intake was riveting and anything that has happened in your country, you can push that too far one day and then something really bad happens and there is a real hit in the relationship. we are close to that point right

now and that's why this is so serious. the particular sensitive issue is for gulen and the expedition request to the turks have sent something in according to the administration but what it is, it was an electronic message of some sort. whether this needs different specific requirements of the extradition formula in degree between us and turkey we don't know at this point. the u.s. will have to look at it. there's several problems with any extradition treaty. i'm not expert on the subject in general but i've had to do with a number of them. first of all, there will be the quality of the evidence provided. now, there are three steps basically to this. first of all the administration has to look at whatever comes in and says does this meet the requirements of the treaty?

doesn't have the sale of a coup? is it clearly prosecution evidence at that type of thing? doesn't meet the treaty requirements? than it does to u.s. court where it is processed in accordance with the agreement and in accord with the u.s. legal system. then, of course, if a person is extradited, that person goes to turkey and he or she is put before a court based upon the formula are based upon the requirements in the extradition treaty. the problem is twofold. first of all to the extent turkish authorities are playing partner to be playing fast and loose with the rule of law and with the independence and integrity of the court system, the stuff that comes in itself could be considered either a people within the administration or by the u.s. courts as tainted. secondly, even if procedurally and in terms of what is

presented on paper it looks okay, the courts and potentially the administration will have to consider would this person be subject to a free trial if this person were sent to the country that asking for the extradition? as the foreign minister turkey the other day said we don't really need evidence. it's the tonight and just send them to a strict that's a good thing that will bode well for a quick resolution of this crisis. from the standpoint of how that plays into our foreign policy with turkey, to the extent possible that we can simply -- and get this thing into the courts and let the courts decide, that would be better because it would be, regardless of the justification, disastrous i think if the administration

said this just isn't a good enough case, we are not going to let the courts to adjudicate a. we are just going to turn it down. the president and secretary kerry have made commitments to the turkish government that they were processed this thing, that they will look at the they been cautious but nonetheless it's very, very important that we not get this wrong. one example i can cite recently and it was hard for the german government, president or the one get a defamation to open a defamation case under german law against a german cartoonist and angle merkel had to make the decision for reality will take reasons. because there is a german law are basically a magistrate law against heads of state. she decided that her authorities would for that to the courts which is what they've done. is to choose a major crisis at a very sensitive time between turkey and germany. we have to look at this in a very cold-blooded way within the framework of our basic values

and what's legally doable. but nontheless, this is an extremely important country. it is in a very delicate very sensitive phase and people need to be very, very careful once again. thank you. >> very good. [applause] >> thank you very much. pots of questions about both what happened in the implications of what happened. if i could just begin with a couple of questions to my colleagues. why no? what was the trigger? is there a trigger? is there any particular reason why the coup plotters believed that the third week of july was when they had to act? was there some reason, some trigger for office? >> -- for all this?

>> some of it seemed have to do with various transitions in the military, including the alleged leader of the coup, suppose we have been ahead of the air force turkey was then replaced but he was kept on as a member of a high military council and he is going to lose his one year to lose his one year tenure should i go to real retirement. so you would lose his base entry badge and his communications and all the other things that have helped him carry this out. there were also concerns that the intelligence agency was tracking many of these people. and that either the investigation would be finished and actually taken or in some cases some of these officers through the normal rotation process which tends to happen for usually happens at the end

of the summer would be replaced and analog would have control over the units and the forces that we so used in this operation. so it's hard to say but that seems to be one of the explanations. >> also just quickly. i agree with jim in terms of the timing. petra i came up with, it's far from a friend of mine and u.s. government. one of the reasons why think this did not end up working is because it was actually carried out in time when you don't do coup meaning 10 p.m. if you're doing a coup, manual one-to-one, it's 3 a.m. when anybody is better at 10 p.m. everybody is outside. part of that, the plot was discovered, that it was wicked fun and coup plotters started to carry out from 3 p.m. to 10 p.m. and that made all the difference. when he was away, we made the calls so they could follow. that probably played into the

ill executed major. in addition forgot to mention this in my presentation i think the fact the first army did not come aboard was a huge factor. this is turkey's most visited army base in istanbul. the first army commander went on tv and said this is not a coup to think i was a clear message to the rank and file into the turks. of course, that was a big factor i think that impact. >> the first army commit hoosiers at the next command of the army, and then the commander of the joint chiefs. so, therefore, he is someone who speaks with extraordinary authority, particularly within the ground forces. >> one of the remarkable aspects about the events in turkey was the unanimous support for the elected government by all the turkish opposition parties who normally can't agree with the elected government on anything. soner, could you see something about this, about how erdogan

has reacted to the opposition parties since receiving their support in his hour of need? >> i think that was probably all the bad news we talked about one of the most positive takeaways, that there was unanimous support in favor of democracy, even as a coup seem to be working. bridges have been blocked in istanbul. the city was cut in half. the website of the turkish chief of staff had been of course i check and it was a memorandum saying there is a coup. a lot of reason to think there was a coup. streets were empty. all parties and the public issue declaration saying they were against it. a major civil society organization, came out against it. social media was abuzz with anti-coup messaging and much of that came from erdogan's

opponents have cracked down violently it was unanimous support against this entity that shows you that the social media of course that erdogan has so vainly tried to shut down was the main mobilizer of the anti-coup ever. his face and message was put on facebook. it went on to india. thanks to social media erdogan was saved, largely. i hope he recognizes that looking for in terms of rights and liberties. yes-men nicer to the opposition in terms of his commentary, and ahead of the main opposition party republican people's party leader, was invited to appear on public tv for the first time in six years. this would be a great opportunity for erdogan to appear to emerge as the united, unified of the country but right now it doesn't seem to be the case because i think we are still sing at divisive figure who sent us versus them. that's very dangerous because now you are seeing his

supporters were pleased that was a conspiracy and there and we. they are both scared and angry. his opponents are intimidated because they know that they're going in for a rough ride. >> just lastly, jim, before return to questions from everyone here, i just want to press you a bit more on this questions about the u.s. deals with all the competing interests. first, given the tumult in the turkish military, what do you think is going on on our side when we count on the turks so much for some aspects of our counter isil campaign? do you think that we can continue to rely on their role in this, even in the near-term? even longer-term let alone the

near-term spit-up to present, the turkish active role in the fight against isis has been limited. at times they been engaging in artillery duels along the border. they conducted some strikes including after the istanbul airport attack, but they are not a major player so, therefore, it isn't that, it would be like recently had a coup in irbil absolutely wanted with the winner thousand peshmerga would hold the line. it's nothing like the. essentially they need to turn the lights back on so we can fight in. i think they've done that. the basic support functions, the turkish military is very, very confident. assessment of the people in the military a week ago are still in the military. they have moved, removed some 6000 out of a force of two-thirds of a million people. so i don't think that's a concern.

so that's the second good news that we've had so far, this discussion over 40 minutes. >> very good. let me turn to questions from you if you could just be kind enough when i do identify you or i do call on you, wait for the mic, identify yourself to lots of people in the room to keep your questions fairly brief and direct them to one of my colleagues. we will start over here with margaret on my right -- marvin. >> aside from this being perhaps really a power play on the part of elements of the military, do we have any indication what would have been the policy implications had the coup succeeded? what would have been different, or is it inside politics

entirely? >> this coup even if it were a real coup, that is if everyone had followed than once advice about 3 a.m. and got the first army and everything, this would not have worked. this coup would've led, it would have been a repeat of 1980 where everybody was saying who can come in and into this chaos? that is our country today. they were saying this for six months as thousands died in street battles between right and left. then the argument anybody said that hatch is that, now we can go back to sleep. nobody can even the people who wanted to see different solution to turkey's political problems than erdogan didn't think there in the middle of an existential crisis on the night before this coup occurred. so you can have a population that was searching, seeking some sort of military intervention to end this war.

half the population were perfectly happy and that's important people who are supporting erdogan, 40-50%. and secondly, those people including much of the police, would have resisted so you would not have gone again or repeat of 1980, he would've gotten something that looks more like syria today. if the people rise up against an armed force regardless of how powerful and the syrian armed forces in 2000 for hundreds of thousands strong, you are going to have a civil war, not a quiet situation. now come in terms of what the coup plotters is indicative controlled everybody wanted to do, that we don't know, it also hinges on the degree to which this was truly a gulenist plot. seems to be a significant but

not hard evidence so far that this was a gulenist influence plot but officers who were part of his movement. but what kind night were people who thought they were thinking and speaking in his name wanted, that's not clear to us because that's not been what that movement was seeking to do. if there is significant cash to influence government in their direction to protect the people and go after their enemies. but not actually run the count country. >> can you just give all of us maybe the 30-second primer on what the gulen movement really wants? what is their worldview? how does it differ from the islamist oriented worldview of erdogan? >> let me jump. before -- >> change the topic. [laughter] >> i'm famous for that. no. turkey would a descent into

full-scale civil war had a coup succeeded so think it did not. i'm wondering whether this was the intended for the unintended consequence of the plot, as the coup plotters had intended to extremely dangerous. there was no way it would be stable. horrible. on your question, i think i will take more of a recent view of the gulen movement. it is in a blood feud with the akp. blood feud is the right would. word. their allies previously for nearly a decade. they worked together. ironically about a decade ago alleging a coup plot against the military. if the gulen of is behind this coup, the people would have carried out a coup in this case. a quarter of the military active duty admirals and generals were locked up, the military through

its head up in the air come through the telling and said okay, erdogan can we go with you. accepted full control of civilian government and that's what a lot of people ruled out the possibility of a coup posted 2010 when the military agreed to go with erdogan as a civilian leader and not challenge. that's why the analysts were predicting this and that's why this is not a coup per se. if, indeed, the movement is behind us and erdogan believe that is one of% the case then maybe turkish analysts that i've spoken to say that the analysis provide for facts that the officers align with the gulen movement were a big part of the coup plot. perhaps the backbone of it together with non-gulenist officers. this blood feud has will become a blood feud actually going, going to his life and his become taken answers nature. as far as president or the one is concerned, this is not over yet because not only

assassination teams unaccounted for, i think until this we have not gone back to ankara although the plot was put out last friday, saturday. so that shows you the country is still a stabilizing. i think what we are seeing this countertrend tube which was put in place to effectively cut out -- we assume that's what. we are doing this event and actually turkey is living to this incident and erdogan has not made his final move i don't think. >> okay thanks. yes, sir. >> thank you. thank you, trembling. thank you, ambassador. stomac[inaudible] we've heard a lot about the gulenist and soner pointed out as well as this but they may well be behind this. you elaborated on the complexities and difficulties

associated with the extradition issue with which i totally agree. but is there something else that the united states could do? could it be possible for the u.s. government through its resources and really help the turkey side to investigate whether the gulenist did put a role in this or not? if they could do this it would help a lot of confidence building and after all this is a nato ally saw it think it's a nato ally collapses can american national security is directly impacted. >> no, absolutely. aside the specific nature of an extradition issue, it's legal, so technical and it's a judicial that it tends to dominate and, of course, turkish officials have -- hit us over the head with it but again they did that at various points years ago when

it wasn't a coup and when they weren't even thinking of preparing extradition case. they were saying why don't you extradite gulen to us or you are not a good ally. we would say where you request? they would say why don't you -- you know, it was sort of again. it's not a game anymore. this was a very serious, very bloody effort to overthrow the government. there are lots of indications that point to the gulenist movement. it's hard given what we know about these movements in general to think that they involve the movement and not its leader. that doesn't mean that he is guilty of anything. it doesn't mean that there's enough evidence to indicate that he can be extradited. he is a green card holder so it's not that easy on some kind of refugee or other status that can be changed. and the united states does have to be very, very careful because of constitutional issues that

are on system. on the other hand, you are absolutely right. this as an important nato ally. and if this guy is responsible for actions against that nato ally state, then that's a very, very worrisome thing, but there should be information. the president and secretary carry both promised intelligence and other investigatory support. there are things that we can do that the turks can't do and there's information that we may have access to. i suspect that will be part of the cooperation. we also can take, there are very steps the u.s. government can and has taken in the past to stop anyone including american citizens from playing unhappy roles in other countries internal affairs. that has never been -- against gulen because it has never come up.

but again the whole gamut of actions we can take to try to show that we are enthusiastically concerned about this. regardless of what is happening in turkey, regardless of where erdogan wants to take his place eventually, there was a very serious and very violent attempt to overthrow a friendly government democratic establishment, and a lot of indications point towards pennsylvania. so that has to be looked at. and that has to be taken seriously. i think it will, but like any thing else in the us government if it doesn't get top level attention, it will die a death of a thousand cuts. >> i think given a erdogan sees this attack a personal assassination attempt on him that he barely survived and escaped, and the fact there's still a looming threat out there and i think if erdogan include that the united states government had not given

thorough review for his request for gulen's extradition, he might pack up and go to russia. it's incredibly incredibly series. whether or not you agree, how he sees it or his policies, this is how i think he will move forward want that kind of response. i think it is not satisfied that his government is taking this issue seriously he will consider playing -- i think that's where it comes in. >> yes, here in front. here's the mic. >> retired foreign service. there is a difference between this is one of asking and it's very early, but between being gulenist which means as i understand rather moderate in your from islam et cetera, et cetera and pinning this on a night in pennsylvania has been extraordinary cautious if i'm not mistaken. do you all think that they will be able to make that connection? moreover, erdogan the city wants to institute the death penalty,

which the european union has complained about that. but again with that altered the course? >> again, on thin ice concerns about the legal things. certainly if you introduced the death penalty made it retroactive i think i would have an influence on anybody at any level in the next days making any kind legal interpretation of what kind of an institution you are sending, you know, a resident alien american act to. in terms of the gulenist movement, from what i know about that movement and from what i know about every other movement anywhere is like that i've encountered in the middle east,

these are not vague things like i'm a secular humanist, so i agree with him or her on some things that all of that. these are cultlike organizations with cells and other things. when we look into it how tightly organized the muslim brothers were in egypt. i'm not saying the gulenist follow that model 100% but in reading some of the confessions that have already been released by army officers, it sounds a lot like this was a highly organized, highly networked organization that had a talk someplace at a typical place with these talks are is where the authorities can't get a hold of the top and that would be here in the states. >> as well as look at the issue of the death penalty, i think we

could see a return of the death penalty. the last time turkey executed anybody was making a one after the coup. and added moratorium after that are two decades ended it eliminated that penalty from the books as part of the process. number one company would automatically in turkey's u.s. -- process. and number two, it also think paved the way for a swing to the right in terms of rights and liberties of turkey. i anticipate a suspension of rights and liberties. the cabinet is right now finishes its meeting. i haven't seen any news clips yet but they're probably coming out soon. the way of targeting and fighting for gulen movement but also broader net cast over the wider turkish society. that would be a problem of one of the takeaways of the coup could be the way it looks ugly, the outcome and this is one of the ugly outcome that it will become more oppressive unfortunate for that one half of the country that does not like

erdogan. the other half will embrace that depression because they have just been targeted and they will justify that based on the perception. it will be great for erdogan to emerge out of such as you are but the chances of that are zero i think right now. >> let me take a handful of questions since a lot of people want to get in on this. >> soner, you mentioned membership of nato has been discussed in ankara but not washington. i think i heard secretary kerry saying that relation of democracy of erdogan, my question turkish membership in nato. >> great. over here on the far right. >> soner, not to diminish erdogan's near-death experience,

does any of his harsh rhetoric or his ministers harsh rhetoric toward to the united states have anything to do with the syria policy about john kerry and lavrov meeting and u.s. foreign policy now been in partnership with russia? thanks. >> very good. right in front. we'll are going to do another round. we have lots of questions to go. [inaudible] >> i'm a consultant. the question is about possible attacks on turkish israeli relations. i have seen two schools of thought. one says that -- came out against the coup and the relationship which was

reconciled short time before the counterfeit coup will continue before. another school of thought says that since israel is so helpful with the base of erdogan he would actually -- that could affect the relations. what you are opinion? >> questions about nato, russia and israel. gentlemen? >> my views very quickly. secretary kerry's people came out and said he really was misinterpreted in a sense that's true. the headline didn't will reflect what he said. ..

>> yeah, i agree on nato. this is not the ear. you have to be democratic to be a member. nato is a security club. many other countries went through dictatorships when they got into nato. in the 90s of course, nato became some indifferent. you have to be democratic to join it. but i don't think this has anything to the membership. it doesn't mean united states should not be tough on democratic rights and liberties.

institutions are separate. i do not think tanks are comments are anti-american comments have anything to do with u.s. policy. this is more than chama and the coup of the assassination attempt. i'm turkish israeli normalization, i think it will move forward and i think business as usual in foreign policy. in fact, there's a counter isil summit. is this a coup because they want to continue with business as usual. he canceled last minute because of the cabinet meeting he had to attend. >> erdogan has many other things to stir up his base other than israel right now. you will have to stay in reserve for the moment. >> okay, yes. right here. so far, not a single woman has put her hand up. please don't be bashful.

>> grade gross, former defense department egypt. we know that erdogan was quite disturbed at our acquisition to the overthrow by the military and the morrissey government in egypt. how has egypt involved in any of those that have been in the last week and how will this egypt issue impact turkey in the future? >> yes, in the fireback. yes, please. >> i feel -- >> identify yourself for millions of viewers. >> to leave the minor, americans for peace. my special interest and expertise of israel, not turkey. i say that as they ask a critical question. i do not feel that you gave me

enough facts to accuse the glen movement, which i know is movement out of sufi islam, iran's goals, immense charitable organizations. a 75-year-old guy, not that i would in any way criticize him for being 75. the movement does not appear to be a movement that is run from the top down. i could go on, but i won't. i just feel you mentioned lots of evidence. it didn't give me the evidence that makes me want to sad they surely are deeply involved. surely -- certainly not supporters of the government. i need information. >> we want you to be the prosecutor general. hold on, hold on. let's get a couple more questions. yes, please.

[inaudible] so somebody -- somebody says that turkey is similar to iran in 1978 and 21 years ago i was in ankara and i had to do a talk. the polarity in this society and an end, i've told them that i am scared for the future of turkey. don't you think the problem in turkey is more than an incident and must end the touche antiterrorism and populism and extremism that i believe you have to think much deeper. so it is only one part.

we have many others. >> okay, thank you. rideshare, right over here. >> thank you, rob. formerly with the u.s. treasury department. their incisive remarks on both panelists. i would like to ask about your impressions of the effect of the coup and the turkish intelligence services and how that might affect cooperation with the u.s. >> okay, thank you. last question from peter here on my left. centerleft, where peter likes to be. >> he is. >> may be. i am not a woman. i would like to get some idea on what the impact of these arrests

and firings is going to be on various institutions in turkey. the army, police, educationeducation al system and so forth. >> okay, egypt is the touche and come the intelligence agencies, the real prosecution and are the problems even deeper than we think. gentleman. >> i was going to yield to jim because he is much wiser than i am. i'm egypt, the relationship is basically driven by the deep hostility between president erdogan. if there's any psychiatrist or that comments on how they would act towards each other, cc was carried out a coup and everyone who has carried out a coup. it's difficult for turkey and egypt to make up -- there was talk of rapprochement before the incident move forward very slowly. it'll be really difficult for the two leaders to be in the same room and not look at each

other with utter disregard and discomfort. russian ties will probably normalize because putin wants the turkish egyptian ties. regarding the analysis i have read that i find credible from turkish analysts that there were none suggesting him by himself. that is before the turkish government to build if they want to make the case. clearly this is the consensus among both analysts in town in turkey analyst credible, there seems to be a large cadre of officers, perhaps been about both of this counterfeit coup. counterfeit attempt to overthrow the government. turkey iranian comparisons i was thinking other countries. before the court happened, i was thinking turkey increasingly looks like an peaceful version of belgium. two communities that have

nothing to do with each other. they look like they're in separate countries. they are living their own countries on top of each other so that they speak a different language. i'll just had a king and turkey has a case depoliticized the military, which was the only unifying institution. your neighbors are not nice dutch people. so it's very troubling where this polarization house from now on we'll take a very negative turn because the country has already lost its only unifying institution and now is exposed to of course threats. turkey was targeted in the last six months 11 times by both isis and the pkk. there could be similar attacks going which is only polarize more. the crackdown with the question of the nature of the crackdown and its impact on turkish society and i think institutions. the military will be targeted as

well as new institutions and it will cripple turkey, but also create a witchhunt. if you don't like your colleague, they will be fired. so they have an election and that caused less ratification. if you don't like it, politics can get them fired. there is a thin line between prosecuting people behind the two and prosecuting -- and persecuting opponents. the distinction in turkey was already in the past and less pronounced. on intelligence, this was probably the fact that the intelligence agency found out earlier and saved erdogan's life is a major move. but they didn't find out about it at the right time. at the end of the day he's going to be grateful. he survived.

>> june. >> yes, on this particular thing i don't have first-hand information, but i have the same sources soner talks about in many of them are not sympathetic to erdogan. i do have information. i lived in turkey at the time, working with all kinds of people in turkey where the movement in the court system unleashed a rabid campaign against the military leadership. part of it was written upon, but they had some support from erdogan. it was his second case sledgehammer. in looking at the evidence, it was contrived as being too generous. this was almost the liberally absurd evidence, where you could easily see a basic forensics that it was dated months after the event was supposed to occur in order to take a number of

senior military officers who are relatively close to erdogan and throw them into jail. i watched as this legal machinery, and against erdogan's will hold over these guys and got them into jail with the media and a lot of other people and i was mightily impressed that the power of the institution. one case, erdogan visit them in the hospital, which is not some anti-death stare very often to anybody, signaling how unhappy he was at the whole thing. there is nothing very much he could do about this because he was dealing with an organization that had the judiciary pretty well sewn up and was answering to some kind of central command and control. i know it was central command and control and i know they were doing tanks that were absolutely repugnant. whether that bounces back to

here or not, that is sent in the turkish has to make the case for. in terms of intelligence cooperation, i will be cynical about this. the last thing that never falls his intelligence cooperation between two intelligence services. it's very important, very needed and can be done by its very nature in a quiet way silicates as much of the politics of anything in the political realm can be. but it is a good question because one thing that does impact that it was a little bit of this in our cooperation with germany today is if the intelligence service falls out of favor with the government, we haven't seen that yet, but were that to happen, regardless of what they get from us or generate themselves, they will be typically in other countries more skepticism towards anything that they serve up and a tendency to go off and do it yourself intelligence and it sounds kind of crazy, but everybody putting american

officials have their own separate private intelligence networks and such that they work with. that is a possibility. institutions particularly in a country like turkey, especially in turkey are really resilient. neil chug along even with replacement theaters, and even on the dean of faculties and colleges, he will find new people. the question is what will be the atmosphere inside these institution if it is clear that this is politically inspired, that it's not only somebody who can't be rooting on the coup, but you have to be on team akp to get ahead. that is where you will have a long-term negative effect on one of the things that has made turkey is successful as it has become, which is the civil service. so you are right there. >> well, friends, you can be people in their seats because of the urgency of the situation and

because of the cogency of analysis. i want to thank jim, think soner very much. [applause] the middle east will be back i'm sure in the headlines were credibly before long. thank you all for being with us today. [applause] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations]

[inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations]

>> today, our concern must be with our future. for the world has changing, the old era is ending. the old way will not do.

>> our concept of governing mr. riot from our view of people. it is a concept deeply rooted in a set of elites, firmly etched in the national concepts of all of us.

>> in the name of allah those who do the work, pay the taxes, raise the kids and play by the rules, in the name of the hard-working americans who make up our forgotten middle class, i proudly accept your nomination for president of the united states. [cheers and applause] >> british defense secretary michael fallon testified on the nato summit in warsaw and the findings from the british iraq war inquiry known as the chilcot report. he told members of the u.k. is committed to working with europe on military and defense matters after the decision to leave the european union. this is about two hours.

>> good morning, everybody, and welcome to this special session of the defense committee considering the 2016 nato summit and also the last sentence of the chilcot inquiry and welcome secretary of state. graduations on the confirmation on your post and with our other two guests care to introduce themselves? >> peter watkins -- [inaudible] >> thank you indeed. first question in our first section which is on the nato summit comes from ruth smeeth. >> good morning. it has been a busy few weeks, but i wonder if you could outline us the most important economic things that came out of this summit in terms of our security with nato. >> thank you very much, chairman.

good morning to you all. this is a successful summit that demonstrated the unity and cohesion of the alliance as an opportunity for us to show british leadership and we made progress on further nato reform and cooperation between nato and the european union. very briefly touch on age. in terms of unity and cohesion, we agree to a clear posture of defense that embraces nato's position, not simply the east, but the south. we demonstrated british leadership by recording our achievement of 2% of gdp to defense. i think 18 other members of the alliance are increased and their defense expenditure. we were one of the four countries to come in to leader

of italian and denounce the forward presence that the alliance has now agreed to deploy in poland or additionally contributing with trips to poland as they play a leadership role to die. we saw some success of the communiqué, what we've been encouraging for some time, which is furthering nato work on cyberand hybrid warfare into closer cooperation is the key point to the communiqué between nato and the european union. so this was a successful summit for britain, but more importantly also a successful summit for the alliance as a whole. >> the challenge to nato, you will be at the secretary of state. we've just completed our reports

and a sense of security with the increased understanding of the russian question in the u.k. now we used to have a soviet studies research center that later became the concept research center. we had stated such a sense they are. or you can do during increasing our understanding and capabilities of russia's defense? >> generally, in your report, we are looking hard at how we improve our understanding of russia, though through our work in russia it fell and at home. russia itself as you know there will be difficulties in bringing the defense secretary in the embassy up to full strength, but

working hard to restore the full strength, which improves our understanding of russian military, but also sun hopes to underpin a better relationship between the two militaries. at home, we are looking again at your report, particularly focused on the number of russian speakers, the number of people we have specializing in intelligent on russia. i can't commit to restoring the sentiment, but you are certainly already seen and greece and process on russian this generally. may i remove my jacket? >> by all means, yes. >> i think as we said before in a previous session, we have increased the number of his staff that we have working on russia as the foreign office as well increase