it limits how much it is going to move. >> when you take sampling, who are you talking to and how many are you talking to and how recent, when was the last set o: questions taking place? >> we are in the field last saturday through thursday night. one of the things we did see in the poll on saturday and sundayt there is a huge jump ino days hillary's direction actually for those two days, about 400 of the 1000 sample she was ahead by ten points. the generic ballot jumped from three points down to 12 points. by the end of the week it had come back to a points in the generic was at five-point deficit. so the sampling, this is when y you get in the public polls versus the public or private polls, think there's been a problem in recent years. we.e. we saw it in 2012 in the presidential election.

a lot of these public polls pulling a sample based on what they think the electorate is going to be. that is not how we duplicate couples. we put the poll pretty wide and look at nuances like definite for vote, definite for the candidate, age and education into modeling to see where we think the races. we try not to make that decision on what the electric is going to be but look at the turtles to see who has more intensity and what is happening. >> our guest is with us until 8:30 a.m. talking to us about the campaign. >> you asked folks about who they think is going to win the election. it showed favorably for hillary clinton, but talk about why this question is important. >> it can be very important

because as people come to theeon conclusion that hillary's going to win, quite frankly the democrats would like this to be perceived as a fairly close race. as their voters begin believing it is going to be her for sure it makes their job harder andor terms of turning out their vote. today if you look at the vote for hillary in the boat for trump, clinton and trump, clinton's advantage on the same are extremely likely vote is about eight-point advantage that are more intense in terms of say they're going to vote. that could have a dampening effect on some of those voters. i think more importantly it shows perception weiss, again this is where uncharted waters with both of the candidates on the negative of where they are. i think we are going to see may be some surprises in terms of turnout. one of the things i always say about polling is tha. polling assumes everything else of the campaign is equal. so if you start looking at the

ground game and the message out, who has better circuits and a broader sense of surrogates campaigning, all all of those things will factor in by election day. so you look at the polling and say, if everything was was equal this is where the numbers are.s. in fact if another candidate has an advantage in those areas which it appears hillary clinton does at this point, you have to start giving a little bit more credence to those numbers for her. >> and this week's debate, how does that factor how these polls look? >> my feeling was the first debate was number two nudity for both candidates to break out of this window that they were stuc in. i did not see it happen in the first debate, ice really did not fit happened in the second debate. we'll see on the third debate. the thing that is unusual about this year is that normally have about 70% of the electorate fairly evenly split. like one candidate dislike the other and vice versa.

that is your baseball. then you usually have about two or 3% that dislike both candidates, that's the disenchanted voters and then you have about 20 or or 25% that l like both candidates. this year, this campaign, that 25% is only 2%. that is usually where the swing voters are. both campaigns try to say i am better than the other or the other one is bad. that is where the real battle is for the campaign.y this year, that two or 3% over reduce like both candidates is at 18 percent. so you have a battle going on that they are not only disliked about the intensity level is going up. that is where the debates have focused on, focusing on they may not like me but you are going to dislike the other candidate more. that is where this campaign is much different. watching what you are doing on u the segment before that is where civility comes in in these two campaign.

>> will talk about information gathering, patrick from pennsylvania you are on, go ahead. >> it is absolutely stunning when you look at the manipulation of the american gor people when foreign governments are manufacturing our voting systems. so the state of israel and manipulating the american vote. anyone who who thinks our system cannot be hacked, your dad the standard of deceit. here's here is a newsflash. what you listen into the press right now with the geopolitics, as a son of a former director i can tell you our nation is being manipulated into a third world war. i they are choosing, and thea council on foreign relations ish choosing a candidate they want to use as the most viable

cerlyate for their candidacy. >> guest: certainly you see a lot of conspiracy theoriesri growing out there the more disenchantment you have, what i see in the focus groups we start a conversation about the presidential race and the response is what we do these two choices. that the thought that the countries going in the wrong direction for well over a decade. republican president democratic congress and vice versa and they look at these nominee since they had did we end up with these twh choices. i think the conspiracy theories will continue. but i have to say it is s disconcerting to see our nominee out there really pushing the

narrative that the system is rigged. that is somewhat disingenuous for someone running for office who basically went through a system where he got 44% of the popular vote to all the way through the race. he is now pointing to it being a rigged system. are there people who try to manipulate the data, people try to hacking into things, yes. but there is a lott of work put into making sure those things don't happen. inc think we have to be concerned for. is it happening in widespread ways, no indication that it is. number one, and number two the bigger the margin that hillary has, the less that argument will hold merits. >> here's a supporter of donald trump from tennessee. hello. >> moderator: good morning. first i want to say i don't believe you're republican, i

rank you are part of the left-wing conspiracy the way you like to throw that conspiracy word around. we don't believe these polls. you look at the turnout, a poll is nothing but a pole. you have to have both come up votes. as you can see the excitement is not there for hillary among blacks, hispanics, or millennial's. look at the crowds between donald trump and hillary, there is no excitement for hillary. you can pad these polls anyway you want and turn polls anyway you want and turn them out anyway you want to try to diss depress the vote which is what you're trying to do, but the excitement of donald trump is overwhelming. we cannot wait to get out there to put him over the top and donald trump is going to win. >> you get this all of the time that donald trump has touched, he it is very deep in terms of the feelings that are there. and the animosity on the the dislike for hillary clinton is very deep. if you look at hillary clinton today, one of the major changes

where she is up to 65 or 75% of her vote and is saying at 65% is saying i am am voting for hillary clinton versus donald trump. donald trump is at only 50% voting for trial. and 43% voting against hillary. amongst the voters who are voting for trump. again one of the things that i smile, i have done this for 42 years. two years. i re- member the mondale campaign against ronald reagan.d 150,000 people show up in it before the election for a rallye for him. he lost 49 out of 50 states. nine out of 50 states. i think it is good that the trump supporters are intense in supporting him. unfortunately that is not trueca of all republicans that are voting for him and are not a vote against hillary. at the end of the day the rallies are not a sign of what is really happening. i.

i think they are going to be surprised, little bit why trump is playing this card on the rigged system.e merit th he wants his voters to believe that somehow it was not his fault if he lost the election. when in fact if you look at how this campaign has happened, i'll give you an example. there is a lot of talk of him going after the main street media as you like to call. i think there is some merit there.n. you also have to look, first of all i think the main street media promoted him early on without question. i think they were chasing the ratings quite frankly as opposed to any political agenda. there may be a little more political agenda now and they're saying oh my goodness, what did i do in terms of promoting trump. but the reality is that if you look at the two campaigns, hillary's campaign has built an operation where she has hundreds of people that arei

calling these news outlets every time there is a sliver of information against trump were positive for her. they are out there pushing that story. trump does not have the same operation in his campaign. so i think what you're seeing on some of his coverage is not just the bias of the media, buts actually the bias that is built in by not building a strong campaign in order to push your story when it is out there. that is one of the weaknesses on trump's campaign.decici >> host: let's hear from an undecided voter. >> caller: good morning. i would like to have a question for you. i've been hearing throughout th news channel that a lot of voters are hesitant to publicly support donald trump for one reason or another. the pol and these voters don't really want to talk about the vote however when they get in the just tg booth and it's just them and their ballot they will vote for donald trump. people are sensitive these days and anything you say gets broken down into these tiny littleho defenses of what it can mean. so

how do your polls account for this voting behavior into the account within the margin that this kind of thing might happen? >> guest: that is a good question. i would say the polling what we have seen through this survey, one we have done two weeks ago, without 36% found 36% of trump's vote was reluctantly voted for trump.avy hesi you could put all kinds of meaning, is a because of his character and they don't like his character but they are voting against clinton. or are they hesitant because of talk out there. hillary was at 29% reluctantly voted for her. both candidates had one third of their votes that said i am reluctantly voting for this person but because they are put in this quandary of i do not like my candidate but i also dislike the candidate on the other side, i think that is more

is what it is reflective of. hidden trump vote, perhaps. one of the things i will get , technical here, one of the things that we constantly test our theory of where we are looking at things. and we have to increase the number of cell phones in our sample, we're now up to aboutle 40%%% are done on cell phones. one of the things we did several years ago as you take a list of cell phone people and i have varying degrees of information, what we found is those that had more information rated a six through ten were more likely to answer the phone and stay on the phone. the difference between those list is the additionale information was not addressed, voting habits, that kind of information. it was economic information. did they get on the internet and by. are they on the list in terms of catalogs, for example. what we found when we tested is

that yes in fact there was a higher, not huge, but a higher number of people in the lower end of the cell phones in terms of information that were [inaudible] the economic grid which would make sense when you look at where the vote is coming from. we are missing by not including their phones and the phony. so we have ever since june. we are including those that will find some of the hidden trump voters. the problem with the surveys out there is that the other nuances they do all phoning and all automated. they also fall short in terms of seniors. in terms of the cell phone list. that is the place of all the voters that trump should be getting them quite frankly republicans across the board, we are not doing as well as the

selection was seniors. trump specifically is not doing well with seniors and that's traditionally what a republican do. so we have hillary not doing as well with millennial's, he is not doing as well as seniors and that gets picked up in the calling. >> host: i want to ask a question about another type of polls, the l.a. pole. the others show an emphasis for clinton their licensing to show an emphasis of donald trump i wonder two points. >> guest: they they are a panel back pull from a panel. so they are calling the same group of people spread over sign. we stopped using panel backs where we would call someone back in a short period of time because one of the things that happen when you do a poll and interview someone on the polling is that for a period of time they start watching the race closer. so a panel back it could be a leading indicator of where things are going because they are watching it closer, but because they have use the same

3000 sample week after week, basically you put them in a position to their polarized extremes and they are stuck there ever since. so this is kind of a test that university is using, the l.a. times is working with him on it. i think what they'll find at the end of the campaign is that they almost needs to be set aside as opposed to the other pole. there may be some things you find in it but it's a different type of pool that get different results. it it should not be mixed in with scientific polls that are ran random. >> host: of ordering california, -- >> caller: hello. i'm a supporter of hillary clinton. i really appreciate this gentleman's expertise in polling. something that i have looked into as a hillary supporters are

polling numbers as a first lady which i found interesting. when she entered as first lady her popularity were very high which is not uncommon with first ladies until she started getting involved with the universal healthcare. the negatives skyrocketed at that time and then came the william sapphire piece which was a speechwriter for richard nixon who coined the liar meme ann coulter congenital liar which stuck with her for quite a few years. he never did apologize, by the way. her polling as senator shot up when she was senator, she was well-liked. when she, when hillary ran for the presidency in 2008 it went

down again and then when she gave barack obama the nomination they skyrocketed again. sort her polls in general, i don't know if this general gentleman wants to comment at all but they go up and down. when she is in office or enters whether it is the first lady, or senator, she is doing fine but when she campaigned she seemed her polling testing to drop. >> host: thank you. >> guest: she is correct. over a period of time of hillary's career her #gone up and down. there's been times when it has been very negative. when she was secretary of state there is a type when her numbers were very

positive when her numbers were very positive with the job she was doing out there. the reality of this campaign is that as with trump both of the candidates from the day they got into the race there negatives were over 50 percent. they have remained over 50% for for the entire course of this campaign. because we have seen a strongly unfavorable growth in both of these him as 50% of the american public, those numbers are so baked in now that it almost does not matter that kind of back-and-forth. last weekend when he saw trump's negatives jump up her negative still stayed at 52 and 53 percent, it was not affecting her numbers at all. what is interesting about this race is that if you look at what drives the negatives, hillary's negatives' negatives are driven by the politics of the past. everything from from benghazi, the e-mails, taking liberal positions over the years. there is a strong negative component against hillary clinton. trump's negatives are driven by his persona.

where he can go to these rallies and get it pumped up and get a great reaction from the rally. probably the biggest myth in this campaign about trump is that he has teflon. he has teflon only because the negatives for hillary is high, not because people looked past and for what is there in his negative. i think part of the problem the campaign has trouble with is that when he is the one leading the charge against hillary as opposed to putting together campaign structure that others lead the charge against hillary. he may be able to go out there and stir up the negatives with hillary but at the same time it is driving his negatives higher. that has been one of the questionable things about this campaign that they have never figured that part of it out that this entire time that he is getting rave reviews from cows out there his negatives and the intensity of his negatives are

higher and higher in this campaign. >> host: you have worked in campaigns for 42 years in polling for governors, senators, and members of congress. we hear a lot about the possibility of the senate going to the democratic and, possibility of seats be lost in the house, what does current polling tell us? >> guest: the house looks to be very strong. i think worse case scenario we're somewhere in the double digits but nowhere close to the 30 seats they would have to change. the senate, very close in many bey s. it is very interesting that is what is considered tossup states, presidentially, georgia is now on that list, arizona, ohio, utah has not yet been put on there because it was driven by one pole. iowa.

in all four of those cases, the covenant republican running for reelection is winning by double digits. that is the only state that trump is holding a lead or marginal lead in the state. usually what you have in a presidential race is that the presidential race drives the lower ballot races. there is a concern last week when there is a concern about the generic ballot jump very high and then it came back very high don't think it was as intense but part of what happened last week is that the more he attacked republicans for not supporting him which was getting a lot of press attention the more we saw of the separation of the image of trump. so the generic donald started coming back to naturally where it was. i think this same is happening in the races as i watch ray's races last week. there is an initial pop against the generic and then it began settling down and it was driven by trump attacking republicans. he allowed that separation to bn

there. we see that same separation onro the issues. right now republican versus democrats are leading by ten points on taxes. only down by five points on healthcare, up six points on healthcare, six points on foreign affairs. four when you look at trump he is down three points in the economy, down 12 points on taxes, down 18 points on healthcare, down four points on jobs and down 27 points on fair bears. so the gap between it shows you ane linkage between the republican parties. donald trump and the prasanna what people are seeing out there. i think one of the unfortunate things of this campaign is that we have not had sonaliidential campaign on both sides that when talking about this issues it's been more talking about personalities and flaws than talking about the issues. that has actually been a detriment to the lower races

been able to talk about what they have done on these issues are what they will do on these issues. because the oxygen is being sucked out of the air by both presidential campaigns. >> host: let's hear from loretta in ohio, a supporter of clinton. >> caller: good morning. i believe what it is saying is true. recently i have noticed that republican party, they don't want any equal anything for anybody else. i find that on tv when they interviewed some of trump voters they are voting for trump specifically because of theur supreme court. which they have made racist decisions such as the voting rights act. i was wondering how does he find

the polling on the supreme court? how does he control the ratio of republicans versus democrats and like i call personal polling. if you come across more republicans and democrats, how is that handled at the end of your polling survey? >> guest: let me go back to where the beginning of the campaign was and what was miss.o . . . decade, the country is off, wrong track. when you get the kind of numbers we have been seeing between 66% and 70%, that is not driven by just republicans are just independents or democrats. it is across the board. >>

>> one of the things that i like to do that we don't go by the economic definition that we consistently get 70 or 72% of the american electorate to be middle-class. that is where i disagree a little bit but what was frustration more than anything. but they were frustrated but angry at both events of the equation. they were mad at the port because they had all the

programs. with an ever increasing larger bill and that was the core going into this campaign. and basically they thought toat would decline again. to come not only to the shores bed as we have seen examples of that during the election but the american dream getting further and further out of reach not that they would do well but that their children would do w better of all of these component parts. that is what was going into this campaign as to seem the core message sometimes it

don't look at the core basic problems you talk about the problem, the solutions and that creates a new set of problems but we have gonego through the cycle so many times just like with obamacare that we are now dealing with problems created by solutions. that is where the frustration comes american public that they don't think ahead with the terms created by the solutions? >> one of the reasons of the question if the country is on the right track or the wrong track? >> one of the things we asses if it is coming up andp in all the surveys, rhino

zero o trump says he wants this says a change election. , but they are not and comes up as the number three response. and what is interesting he is losing by 10 points on the ballot. there's a lot of voters and not voting but he is noty winning the war. i felt cold time i am breaking this window. here are the policies to make america great again. but more importantly bring terrorism to is safer point, and how do i bring the american dream back?ndidate

neither kennedy is making a good argument right now. >> our next guest, go ahead. >> caller: good morning. my question would be about in these polls really level allowed to if hillary is 47% will she win the presidency? it would you like to run for president? u.s. seven grady is. [laughter] -- you have great ideas. but before they enter office they should take the lie-detector.

>> i a always laugh when they say take the lie detector test or the drug test. this is an argument of fluid is honest and trustworthy. highe not in terms of the food has the highest percentage but who is more honest and trustworthy? trump comes up short in the wake of the excess hollywood tapes -- "access hollywood" tapes. but as somebody who works in the campaign's i have always been concerned of working with him in the primaries to

label his opponent is that sometimes you have to wonder hio if he is labeling his opponents before he is labeled that way? now peace signals to the campaign this is something he has a weakness. hopefully that will not happen. as far as my interest of running with politics, i have never had that i thought my strength is helping those candidates bring their strength to the surface. also built on the candidates weaknesses.amer one of the things how do we

end up with these nominees? with the race to the bottom between the two and i am very concerned for the american public will invest in the campaign and be feeling very unsatisfied and more frustrated and that is unfortunate for the system. i feel that we will want dash that we will suffer. >> south carolina banks for calling. >> caller: thanks for having c-span on every day. and gcs cited decent person but when the republicans

took vows it did just didn't stop from their. my sister is a republican and i heard the caller earlier she is a teacher and votes republican all-time.she i babbitt is and who she is. and i have one other comment . bus when bush left office and president obama to office or just to keep going for another trillion dollars?lame you cannot blame the doubling of the deficit on president obama.

>> thinks for taking my comments. >> actually it increased and the debt that has doubled. that is unfortunate because this is where you get very nervous. >> now we are live at the convention center this was scheduled to begin a 7:00 p.m.. here we are. ♪ ♪ [applause] what a crowd.

we want, to start by thanking the fire marshal. thank you. in 22 days we will win the state of wisconsin. [cheers and applause] and we will bring back the white house. it is starting to look that way. we're up in the ohio and we are doing great. be sure to send did the absentee ballots. together we will deliver real change to put america first. we are going to renegotiate

and illegal immigration. stop the flow of refugees. with customs and regulations and common core common get them now. get him out. you can take care of now. there is always one in the group. but you always have to be very nice. we were not kind. get him out.

thank you. [chanting] >> did you get him out? there is always one. thanks to the police very much. is there any more fun place to be and a donald trump proudly? is there no safer place and no more energetic place with a lot of energy. from those who did not have a lot of energy. get it cannot as fast as you can.

lee will be peeled and replace jobs killing obamacare. your jobs will come back under the trump administration like you have never featured -- never seen before. your incomes will go up and your taxes will go down under the trump ministrations. and crooked hillary wants to raise your taxes just you understand. the companies will not be leaving wisconsin. believe me there would be consequences for those companies. and to end government corruption. hillary clinton is the most

corrupt person ever to run the presidency of the united states. knew levy least fbi documents. everybody understands exactly what went on. and made public just today how deep the corruption goes. the undersecretary of state illegally pressured in the fbi to unclassified e-mail's of hillary is illegal server . that is a lot of illegality in the one statement. the state department was trying to cover-up for crime of classified information

and that is what we are talking about. this had hillary deleting and bleaches 33,000 females -- e-mail's. [chanting] [chanting]

get them out. [chanting] then you hear of voice then you have to thousand people by the way that is only a small percentage. but keep doing it. it is more fun that way. thank you.

you have to disappear many were hit with a hammer. who appear has gotten rid of your phone and headed with a hammer? nobody? i want to find out the business he is did. whacking down with a hammer? two boxes of the bill evidence has gone missing. with the destruction of laptops and remember also that cricket hillary lied under oath to say she has never center received classified information.

[chanting] and she pretended not to know that confidential information. she then told the fbi bad memory then in their written testimony she could not remember approximately 21 times. does anybody believe this? this is one of the great missed justices. what has happened to the fbi is so bad with so many incredible people.

they probably don't believe themselves. we are witnessing a criminal enterprise at your expense. but it gets worse. the fbi documents show the undersecretary of state for altering the of classification with the quid pro quo. this is a felony corruption by any standards under secretary kennedy that he also resigned. [chanting] [chanting]

[chanting] [chanting] >> i have to tell you we haven't had any of this bernie sanders had much more energy. really. so clinton and her cronies have sacrificed your family's safety and your country's safety as though it meant nothing to her at

all. this in the opinion of law-enforcement this is worse. what does she get out of it? the run of the presidency of the united states. [booing] we will plan and end to that on november 8. [cheers and applause] we will win. nipples are great today but it shows the under current that they cannot pull. remember the primaries? bill looks like he will not win. the next day it was a landslide. what happened? we will take it anyway. people don't want to say

they're voting for trump. we will take it any way be can't get it. the other series the females show them scheming to take masses of money. from the top of the official say take the money. this is bundled and is obvious on behalf of foreign governments. remember we are competing and i said it remember the we cns? how many delegates do i get blacks they showed me my opponents.

i went there on a friday night so they say how many? this is the way this system works that it is a red system. but we figured it out. and bernie sanders i bet he wished he did not endorse her. she would have been special in history but we will not let that happen to was. not with this movement. the media tries to rig the election by giving credence to the stories that have validity. they take a story with absolutely nothing that did not exist to prevent front-page because they want to poison the minds of the voters.

[chanting] [chanting] >> to poison the mind from 30 years ago or 20 years ago , by the way those events that never happened. [applause] it is amazing. that is why in our favor the backlash second nobody has ever seen before. with front-page news but it turns out it is small stuff.

there isaak backlash from wisconsin. and said what to thank you. nobody who has ever run for office. a very prominent question. and most important former this wisconsin who got out of the apostle to be with us. one of the greatest people who got out of the hospital. it is an amazing person thinks for being here. [applause] we have our generals and our share of.

and he was there early when he would endorse trump. and even more importantly. the media is an extension of the clinton campaign as wikileaks has proven but they won't talk about t11 they just keep talking about donald trump in. they have to start talking about wikileaks they have to start talking about the things that are going on. then even have the questions and answers. [chanting]

[chanting] we need some truth. to make america great again redo need some truth. they poisoned the minds of voters. also to poison the minds of others. hillary even got -- get him out. that's okay. there's always one added time. [chanting] [chanting]

by the way where is the i am? one of the great successful people she is amazing. she has the questions and answers in advance of a major debate. how do you do that? nobody even knows about that. she got the questions in advance. can you imagine? if donald trump got the question is an advance? they would reinvented the electric chair. . .

96% of so-called journalists who make presidential donations gave their money come gave themselves comic if you rethink your crooked hillary clinton. can you believe that? they even want to try to rig the election of the polling booths and believe me there's a lot going on. do you ever hear these people? they say there's nothing going on. people would have died 10 years ago are still voting and illegal immigrants are voting. where are the street smarts of