four years later. i don't think anybody was very popular after that election. thus one that comes to mind. >> host: harold, your follow-up? >> guest: my follow-up is what is the thing about the federal lawsuits filed in the federalwss court against the -- on state-sponsored terrorism? >> guest: i have no knowledge about that. not america. >> host: dallas woodhouse can donald trump when the resident resident -- presidency without winning north carolina?th >> guest: i don't know. donald trump is going to win north carolina. b we are going to win and returnwe america's best governor pat mccrory to the governor's's mansion return a great member,r, chairman of the senate committee richard. burr: back to the senate. north carolina is going to stay red.ybe no it may not be. by a lot but it will be. by enough. >> host: columbus, georgia

line for others. hello, thanks for calling. ms. miller from columbus, georgia. go ahead, you are on. >> caller: okay. good morning c-span, thank you c-span. mr. woodhouse i have a question. we hear a lot about immigration and my question to you is do yo have any idea how many illegal immigrants are in the state of north carolina that did not come across the border from mexico and i will be waiting for your answer? >> guest: i don't, i don't andt. i think immigration is a complicated issue that we have seen that is not only roiling our state and our country but it's roiling the world. one reason britain left the eu because they couldn't control their own borders. america has got to have people of goodwill on all sides comee

together to try to solve this immigration question. we have illegal immigrants in north carolina just like any other state. we have a lot of people that are offering great value to ourty wo society that are undocumented. this is a very complicated issue and there is no one party or one political side that's ever going to fit this issue. it's going to take everybody coming together and little bit a by little bit solving along the way to try to develop some --. >> host: one more call for our guests and this will be from craig who lives in wilmington, north carolina. craig, hello there. how are you? >> caller: all right. my question is why did northinir carolina get rid of the scholarship.

they no longer offer teacher fellows scholarships. >> guest: our governor north carolina has offered the largest teaching pay raises of any governor america. we have done a lot of things to try to get our education compensation system up. we have offered liability protections that the democrats didn't offer them. there've also been some hard choices that have to be made when democratic governor -- left republicans with a three billion dollar budget deficit. a lot of difficulties had to be figured out. lot off i think republicans have done a pretty good job on paying our debt that, getting the economy going. and doing it without raising taxes. >> host: a couple of are viewers on twitter pointed this out and this is a statement he made with a made with a brother in our network in december couple of years ago. the brothers are made famous by

given airtime one to see how family relit -- relations are going. >> guest: i think it will be better for everybody when this onection is over. >> host: dallas woodhouse is with the north carolina party serving as their executive director as we take a look at the battleground state of north carolina. mr. woodhouse, thanks for your time. >> guest: thank you. >> the russians hacked into both campaigns in both 2012 and 2008. the difference this time is the release of the data. before the tech e-mails, donor

list campaign strategy upon it research, this was the third time they have done it. what's different now is they use it for political use.

more from our discussion on the state of north carolina, the focus of today's "washington journal." the segment we talked with the political journals from that state. it's about 45 minutes. >> host: joining us now from north carolina taking a look at that state has the battleground state, jason finan the co-publisher of the blog talking about politics and also served as a democratic strategist and also a longtime observer of democratic politics. mr. pearce good morning. thanks for joining us on c-span. called -- >> guest: thank you for having me. >> host: polling showing hillary clinton up by a couple of points. will that remain or other factors to consider? >> guest: we have a couple of weeks. got a c this has been a pretty in predictable election so who knows what might happen but i

think she's in very good shape. north carolina is a really close day. we have been closely followed for the last two cycles.same. nobody is going to win a blowout here in any way. most of the polls show her up. her debate performance particularly helped a lot. there seemed to be a lot of democrats turning out for early voting. think democrats feel pretty good about her chances.lina. >> host: you wrote this about her on a recent blogpost. i will read a little bit about it. he said if she could introduce americans to likeable character with a plan for the future she will do more than win. she will get her presence presidency off to good start. you may talk about that first portion at likeable admirable character part? >> guest: i think a lot ofofwhy people have a plastic image of her. she's been in politics for so long and built-up so many scars.

she has been attacked so much, she and her husband so i don't think people have gotten a real sense of who she is. i think that's a great thing about the debates. i think the debates made a huge difference in how people see her insert a major difference in ho. people saw donald trump. that is all worked for a favor. >> host: the fact that both of these candidates have unfavorable numbers that are high, what do you think about her current favorable numbers and you think that will change as far as now until election day?w and >> guest: i don't think at this point she can do much about the available numbers. this race is going to be decided by undecided voters and by the turnout. democratic turnout, republican turnout. the democrats as a set are very enthused and very organized. i think in the end that could be what makes the difference in this race. i think she's done a great job overcoming what negatives she has and the positive she has shown in this election.ho

just one example just to stay in their face-to-face toe-to-toe with donald trump for four and a half hours prove she has the stamina and the temperament and the toughness to be president. >> host: i know you don't speak for the democratic partyoe they're in the state of the hilly printing campaign but to have a sense of her on the ground get out the vote operation and how elaborate it is and how effective it is? >> guest: i've got a lot of friends who were involved in campaigns and know a lot more about that aspect of modern politics than i do. they tell me it is a very impressive operation which rivals the president obama had in 2008. what i hear about that as is good and on the other side it does not sound like the republicans are well-organized. they have a pretty bad between disconnect the train state republicans and the trumppublicn

campaign and its level of organization or disorganization. >> host: north carolina politics, the battleground state our focus on the final sigmas program call and ask questions questions of our guest (202)748-8000 for north carolina resident 2027 for a 2001 for all others. mr. pearce talked about undecideds. whatever questions they are asking and what do you think hillary clinton has to appeal to for those questions they may be asked? >> guest: what does she have to appeal to? i have a hard time understanding undecided voters at this point in the campaign. you wonder what it is they don't know and they can't make up their mind about. you have to guess there's a lack of enthusiasm for either candidate. i think what hillary clinton did in the debate and particularly in the last debate was made it..

clear the contrast in temperament, personality, stamina if you will, judgment, experience, ideas. every possible measure you could hold in a president, i think she'd be trump that and trump helped turn off a lot. it may be all she needs to do for the next two weeks is go somewhere and hide and let donald trump keep talking. >> host: as far as democratic turnout, we saw some some earlier number saying 2.7 million democrats in thee se state. how many of those detained will turnout come election day? >> guest: i can't guess about members. what i do know is the first two or three days of early voting appeared to be heavily democratic. an awful lot of women were voting. long lines here and wait county which is the biggest voting county in the state and orders

statewide and presidential elections.. the question is what is the republican turnout going to be because i don't sense they have the same enthusiasm for their counties that democrats have for there is. >> host: as far as the seat itself there were some recent stories about how it's changing in itsts demographics. do you sense that there is a change among people moving into the states, students in the state and does that benefit hillary clinton and long-run? >> guest: it's not going to benefit her this time.her we are still a closely divided state. we are fast-growing state. north carolina is a big state, one of the roughly 10 biggest dates. people moving in her all the time. it's a great place to be. i don't think it makes a big difference now. thatroad wrote the north carolina is where the jobs are which is primarily metropolitan

areas in a tent to attract people with college degrees, the blue believe in education and opportunities for more people. i think over the long run that's going to be a good thing for democrats but we are split right down the middle this year just like we were in 2008 and 2012 in every election in between. >> host: let's hear from john. he lives in chapel hill and he is on with our guest, jason finan. john, good morning. go ahead. >> caller: good morning gary and good morning america. thanks for having me on. i just want to make a couple of comments. the kuikuro. north carolina but had to leave over 50 years ago because i couldn't get a job here. in returning in 2012 just want to say that north carolinians are still fighting a civil war

and it is a state that governor curry and senator. burr: and others have just tried to take us back to where the state was. so, i have party voted. i voted for hillary. my whole family voted for hillary because we think that's the only chance the state has incoming into the 21st century so i hope that those people who have not voted will get out and vote for hillary. vote for moving the state forward or else we are just going to be a long-term state that people look down on that has poor education, that hasn, poor medical care, because governor curry and the republicans have decided that they just don't want to help poor people and they want to raise taxes on poor people. that is what has been going on

here. >> host: john, thanks.hanks. >> guest: could i just say it meant? i agree with everything he said and i think he captured a lot of what is driving the democratic enthusiasm that i talked about. it's not just about the presidential race. north carolina has a long history of being a progressive state. i worked for governor jim hunt for an awful long time and we were known when he was governor is one of the fastest-growing states and one of the state doing the most for education. we have teacher pay up to the national average. we were attracting all kinds of new industries even though we were losing jobs in traditional industries like manufacturing and tobacco. so the status come a long way and i think there's a strong sense now of a lot of north carolinians that we have slipped back since the republicans tookk over especially since governor mccrory came in four years ago. he came in with a reputation as

a moderate, an effective governor or a main mayor of, charlotte for a long time.uldn' he just couldn't translate that to the governor's office. his problems are just recent. they really go back his session in 2013. but it was clear the legislature was driving things which made him look very weak, something is never over, and the legislature was driving the state and a the radical white wing direction. a lot of things the caller talked about, voter suppression, cuts in education, herding industries like the film industry like we talked about earlier. this is a chance to get it back. it's a remarkable thing when you consider it. we are sitting here talking about an incumbent republican governor and an incumbent republican senator in the southern state who is in real

trouble for re-election. that's the market into some major feeling in north carolina like the caller expressed. >> host: florida, on our line for others. die-in, good morning. >> caller: good morning. mr. pearce i would like to ask you to make a statement that i believe would be possible to give amnesty for all those peope people who have been involved in past abortion providing activities are in a kind of abortions per curry meant. and given that, would you still be in favor of the murder of blacks for the purpose of furthering the education of adults? >> guest: i have a hard timeme following your logic there.

i think she was talking about abortion and i think one of hillary clinton's best moments c in the debate in her political life was when she took a very clear and sound position in the last debate about this. this is not something the government ought to be messing with. these are difficult situations.i this is a decision by menotti make for themselves and i understand people have awfully strong feelings about this. i think she has a reasonable position. >> host: you call the state of progressive state and to jessica we talked about the religioustw makeup of the state. their tug-of-war between those ideas especially when it comes to topics like abortion wax. >> guest: there is a tug-of-war and for that matter there has been a war throughoute our political history. ever since the end of world warr ii europe into ribbons flowing

through north carolina politics. there's a progressive stream terry sanford, jim hunt strain who believes in education large in the cities and that theies universities and liberal churches. there is a conservative strain like the jesse helms represented for a long time that comes out of small towns in rural areas and the more conservative. we have been fighting these battles forever all of my life. we used to just fight it out in the democratic primary between conservatives and progressives. now it's become the same fight, modernized updated to today's issues between democraticissues parties that are progressive in the republican party which is conservative. beyond that in north carolina the republican party has gone pretty far right to an extent that most north carolinians who like that down the middle mainstream approach are very in touch with.

>> host: (202)748-8000 correct or carolina residents 202-7488 001 for all of theirs. jason finan is our guest. he co-publishes a blog second of politics. we heard about his experience in the state. mr. pearce tell us about this blog and its unique nature. >> guest: at makes it unique is it's a democrat and republicans. my blogging partner used to work for jesse helms. in fact he and i met when we were negotiating the rules of the hud debates in a night -- 1984. we start a blog in 2005 and we give credit to the fellow who worked for howard dean. matthew was one of the pioneers campaigning. carter and i actually have a nonpolitical client that we were working on together and we met matthew. at the end of that time matthew

said you guys up to do a blog in carter said what is it log? matthew explained it to us and set us up and we went after it. we try to do more than just repeat partisan talking points. carter and i have done that to death. we beat each other up for 40 years. now we have sort of enjoy trying to get people a behind the curtain look at how politics works. how a campaign works and why politicians and campaigns do the things they do and sometimes so make any sense. >> host: frank in tulsa oklahoma on our line for others, frank good morning. >> caller: good morning. and then interesting debate or talk or whatever.here f i was fighting the communists according to my knowledge and trying to keep them from coming in our front door. a couple of years later they

passed the abortion law where they could slaughter of the unborn and to this point we have slaughtered about 50 million just here in the united states. if you are christian i have heard you throw some christian terminology and heard you talk about churches and stuff. you know that's forbidden by god and god set up an institution of marriage back in the first book of the bible, the first couple of chapters. you can. about what marriage is and there are no men with men and womenri with women getting married. i don't see any addendum that god has installed in the scriptures since.ip >> guest: i'm probably the least qualified to argue scripture with anybody but i do know this. people read the bible and read different things into it and take different things out of their religion.

the things that jesus taught in terms of treating others as we would have them treat us would be a pretty good way for us to work in this country. >> host: let me turn to the topic of the h.b. 2 law that was passed. we up to previous caller what he thought the long-term might be especially in this election cycle. what is your take? >> guest: well it's been a disaster for republicans. it it's a classic political miscalculation. they created this issue. they call the special session of the legislature to pass it. nobody saw the bill before with pass. mccoy signed it the very same night and then people realizing what was then and we started having real economic damage. companies decided not to come here. a lot of companies that were looking at north carolina to locate here pulled away.

north carolina's pride as well as its economy when we start losing the ncaa and we started losing acc basketball tournamens basketball was born in north carolina and it belongs in north carolina. we have to keep it here.li i think that vantage is really really -- damage is really severe and you see a lot of legislative candidates trying to back away from it. this whole thing about it was charlotte's fault, what charlotte was doing was passing an ordinance against discrimination and there's no other way to say it. sort of the last straw. it really captures everything the governor mccrory and the republican legislature has done which has been too narrow partisan advantage rather than to try to benefit and lift up the whole state.

now we are here two weeks from election and they are paying a heck of a price for it. >> host: kerry north carolina our line for residents. sherry, you are up next. >> caller: hi that was a great response to that last caller and i as police if you could give me 20 seconds to make two comments. first of all there is a lot of building and a lot of houses being built, a lot of communities and i am seeing a lot of immigrants from east india coming in, have great jobs. i work as a nurse. i work in different areas so it's different companies. i see this. i don't see a lot of americans getting these great jobs and i don't see a lot of americans being able to afford these new communities. as far as the teachers, the teachers are great here however they are not paid what they should be paid. second i would like to say to america, this is about our future. i think we should get everyone

out of congress, both people and that are going to do something for all of us and realize that if we don't come together republicans, independents backing democrats we are going to see the wind and see more people come to this country take our resources, take our jobs. thank you very much. >> guest: again, amen. she is really talking about education. a lot of companies here do have to look outside north carolina even outside the country to get the kind of talented educated people they need. that's great. it's great that they get them here and they have a lot to our community, add a lot to the economy. but her point is exactly right, we need to do a lot more and the number one thing and this is something i learned from governor hunt many years ago. the number one thing you do to improve education is pay teachers well and treat teachers

well. i heard what dallas woodhouse said about the pay raise. north carolina was at the national average when governor hunt was in. now we are 44th in the country. teachers are incredibly dedicated groups of people. we have a daughter who's who is a teacher and i know how hard they work and have dedicated they are. teachers feel like they are being good by governor mccory and the administration. that's why we are -- teachers. they can make more money and private enterprise and make our money to take over the border to virginia and south carolina and is just inconceivable to me that north carolina wants to let that happen to her teachers and our schools. who starred next call for gary pearce is from monroe north carolina and this is willard.

>> caller: hello. >> host: you are on, go ahead. >> caller: okay, i really don't know what is the matter with american people if they and she points to all these liberal judges to the supreme court and three or four years they gravitate the 2nd amendment. there is going to be a war in this country could say it going to take away the 2nd amendment. not from the people. the people of this country are crooks like her and a liar. i've never voted before in my life and i'm going to vote and i'm going to vote for donald trump. he's the -- he ain't the best person in the world but at least he ain't a crook and a liar like all the other politicians. >> guest: the caller is

obviously unhappy with the way things are going and i think a lot of people probably agree with him. a lot of people don't. number one there's not going to be a war because nobody's going to try to take away the 2nd amendment. there is no need to. i think what she would do is probably appoint judges who believe in the first amendment which is the right to speak your opinion the way we do here. judges who respect women's rights to decide health care, judges who might be willing to take on the problems of dark money and big money in elections, i think it will be a pretty good turnout. >> host: from cedar rapids, iowa this is edward on her light and that we have dedicated to all others. edward, good morning. >> caller: good morning. i did have a question. you had made the comment earlier that all hillary would have to do for the last couple of weeks

would probably just be to disappear and let donald trump talk. i was wondering what that means, that she wouldn't have to answer questions regarding e-mails, wikileaks? i'm just curious. .. >> with michelle obama who is the number one big gun that the democratic party has now. that says a lot about north carolina, for the to them to be

together north carolina this close to the election shows how excited democrats are, how cautiously optimistic they are about this race and the fact is, if hillary can win north carolina it is very difficult to see a path for donald trump to get into the white house. i think this is a great opportunity for north carolina to put up a roadblock for him. >> you talked about to the operations to get out the vote, talk about turnout itself, low turnout, high turnout,. >> high turnout always benefits democrats. the more people who vote the better democrats do, we did well in 2008 and 2012 presidential race. we had a disaster in the midterm in 2010, that's when republicans took control. and they gerrymandered the district. what demonstrates this is the

way the republicans in north carolina operate on election log. things like early voting. something my friend was talking about earlier. a few weeks ago dallas and executive director of the republican party sends out an e-mail to all 100 county elections and encourages them to make partyline changes. do that in early vote. in other words to use government power to keep democrats from voting. particularly minorities and young people. places like boone, appalachian state university where the election board has done everything it can to make it hard for students to vote for simple reason. they don't don't vote the right way for republicans. that's one of the reasons there's a lot of motivation, a lot lot of enthusiasm. there is no motivator in politics like anger.

people in north carolina, democrats especially are angry. >> host: from oakland california tiffany is up next. >> caller: what a big difference in demeanor does mr. pierce has and mr. woodhouse, hugh is completely arrogant and very disrespectful. i think people should keep that in mind the next time they start allowing these politicians to run their lives who has respect for them and who doesn't. now i am born and raised in san francisco. i must say the democratic agenda, i don't think either one has the american people at heart. for this immigration thing, it has been a disaster out here. if you ask you ask me it has been a full on invasion of everybody. i want to to know when is enough immigrants enough?

a lot of these people have 1,000,000,000 people in their own country. were going to stop when we have 1,000,000,000 people here? a lot of people have three children on average. what is the population going to be the next 15 years? enough is enough of this immigration stuff. the rest of america, you better be careful because are coming to your state too. >> obviously there are a lot of people upset about immigration. i am am not an expert on that. what i see here north carolina is that we have an economy that would be hard-pressed to be as successful as it is if it was not for immigrants. that's all the way from people working in the phd's and high-tech industries to people building houses. >> thank you all so much for being here tonight. we are honored by the presence of our panel here, they are a terrific group of people and we

are very fortunate, all of us to have them here at georgetown law school. before i introduce i want to take a second to thank the student ambassadors who did all of the work on this. they got in touch with the panel and did all of the legwork. thank you to all of you guys. we appreciate it. [applause] this is not happening without them. so so thank you all very much. a special thanks to my assistant shannon callahan. [applause] i travel around the country is admissions guy and talks about the advantage of coming to georgetown law school. there are many that i talk about and something like this is at the top of the list. this is a wonderful washington event and if you can tune out the noise about how everybody does not like washington, i can tell you plenty of applicants like washington.

and everybody running from congress knows what it's like being in washington. we are honored to have everybody here. thank you very much. it is my pleasure not to introduce the dean of georgetown law school, bill traynor. [applause] >> thank you very much andy. thank you tour student ambassadors and think it is shannon. in my role my role i want to thank andy. i think we all know he is the best at omissions in the country. all all of our students can recognize that. in addition to being a fabulous person admission he puts together tremendous programs. thank you very much. [applause] when i talk about the law school one of the points i make is, where else would you want to go to law school except in washington, d.c.? it gives you an insight that you cannot get anywhere else. i cannot think of a better

example than the panel that we are going hear from. the selection has absorbed the whole country in a way that i have never seen in my lifetime. to have this panel, people of this insight talking about what is going to happen and why it is going to happen. what an amazing event. to our panel is, thank panel is, thank you very much. you will be introduced by sam feist. my other piece of duty is to introduce them. he is a big deal in journalism, he is cnn sr. vice president. i washington bureau chief. a 30 time emmy award winner. most are partly he is a georgetown georgetown law graduate, class of 1999. [applause] without further a do, i will turn matters over to sam. >> thank you very much. hello. for the record we are 14 days, three hours, 55 minutes from the

polls closing a california. i'm not i'm not counting. assuming that we know the answer then, it will off the most divisive, complicated, unusual, and ordinary presidential campaign we have seen in modern american history. who better to talk about it then this outstanding panel we are lucky to have this group. i will introduce them. first on the end harrison are to is a strategists working with george w. bush and republican national committee as director of coalition. currently an npr commentator and supportive donald trump. we have e.j. dionne, longtime columnist for the washington post. author, a senior fellow of the brookings institute and adjunct professor at georgetown university. >> , regular professor. >> i'm very proud of my georgetown connection. [applause] >> lint is a pollster, she's

worked with democrats, such as organized labor for the dnc and not surprisingly a supporter of hillary clinton. beside her is lieutenant joseph kellogg, foreign policy adviser to the donald trump campaign. general kellogg spent 35 years in the u.s. army serving in vietnam and operation desert storm. he commanded the 82nd commanded the 82nd airborne division and his awards include the silvis entrance silver star and several stars. then is peter holtz. he is the brains, he would say behind the nbc wall street journal poll. finally, before it is a correspond for the washington post. she was a longtime political correspond for "time" magazine and before that for the los angeles times. she is are straight down the middle voice of reason on today's panel. welcome to our panel. thank you for joining us today.

i would like to start with the state of the race. i'll start with peter. give us a sense where the race stance at this moment and the prospects for donald trump catching up. >> in our latest nbc wall street journal poll, get paid every time i mention them, we have the race as a ten-point race, 47 - 37. a more recent poll you are mentioning cnn had a poll of about five points tonight. you saw the washington post which i believe was 12 points. somewhere between those numbers is probably where the state of the races. that is is the democrat, hillary clinton has a decisively. she has a decisively to impart because of the democratic coalition. she is doing exceptionally well with hispanic and african americans.

doing well with women, and also with millennial's and all of those things are good. the reason the race is not totally put away is because we do not know exactly who is going to vote. those people who are most in question happen to be those who tend to be much more part of the clue to coalition, that is the challenge. what i would add to all of this is that if you look, this race, this race has not changed in the course of one year. we think of things as moving tremendously but we had a question which we have been asking since 1996 and that is, describe is, describe your feelings about each of these people as potential presidents. are you satisfied and hopeful that they do a good job? are you uncertain and wondering whether they would do a good job?

are you pessimistic and worried? and are you optimistic and confident? when you look at it and take it one year ago in october 2015, just when 15, just when we're starting out, essentially what you had was about 43% of the american public say they were optimistic or satisfied with hillary clinton. at that stage of the game it was about 56% who are pessimistic or wondering. you come one year later with everything that has happened, all of the ups and downs, the answer is it is now 43 - 56, exactly the same. you say that donald trump has been a roller coaster. the answer answer is in october 2015, 32% were either optimistic or satisfied and 67% were not. today, one year later, it is 34 - 65.

so for all of the things we're looking at and everything that we think has happened, in in reality so much has happened, but so few attitudes have changed. >> so hillary clinton has the lead and donald trump -- [inaudible] how does donald trump catch up. >> the donald the cnm poll -- donald trump needs to continue to message to be merrick and people. one thing people forget is his experience of being a business leader and experience on the apprentice, experience in the public sector has given him the unique ability to tap into the mindset of the american people. this is why he was underestimated in the primary. everyone thought that no one would taken seriously. so he stood on the debate stage and beat out all 15 or 16 competing against him.

now we're seeing the clinton campaign is ratcheting up their attacks against him on a negative basis. the last debates were void of substance and policy. what. what you saw her doing was reinforcing the narrative that donald trump is a sexist, racist, bigot, because i believe she knows that there are independents, moderates, and bernie sanders coalition that will not vote for someone who may he perceived to a racist, misogynist, bigot, or et cetera. they will but with someone who speak directly, who means what he says and says what he means which is not what secretary clinton does. fundamentally people do not trust her. for mr. trump needs to stay on message which sometimes on he

gets chasing around other things, he needs to talk about his strengths. his strengths our jobs, the economy, nafta, trade, the business leader that he is. if he stays on message and continues to message direct to the american people he will win the election. i don't think it will be a blowout on either side, i think will be close. i think mr. think will be close. i think mr. trump has what it takes to deliver. if you look at the battleground states the fact that he's doing well in ohio, pennsylvania and tightening of florida are good indicators that he has what it takes to win in the next 14 days. >> in a minute i will mention about the path to victory. in about 30 minutes will give you a chance to ask questions. give me your take on the likelihood of donald trump catching up on what he has to do, do you think the race is over? >> just three quick things i want to say. one is to salute and the corn black, and he and i worked together a lot.

we help set up the georgetown institute of politics. everybody here tonight to get involved in the institute of politics at some point. i think you'll be very happy. secondly, thank you for your service general kellogg. thirdly, i love that peter mentioned, bae-6, i've never disagreed with the new york times story more than i have this morning. they're trying to take away from donald trump and i am no trump fan as you know, his role as a language innovator. they claim that he is saying big league and not bae-6. and and the other day he used biggerly. i think bigly is awesome. my

basic view is between now and election day we repeal both women's suffrage and the remaining parts of the voting rights act, donald trump will lose. i think it is possible that he will lose by a significant margin. we do not know what will happen in the next two weeks. we don't know what new emails will e-mails will come are weights from various sources. something could happen. i think trump is caught in a narrative of defeat that happens to candidates at the end of the campaign. it's bipartisan, the narrative of defeat. you show up at a place of the reporters ask you, your down by seven points in ohio and florida, or wherever, how wherever, how are you going to catch up? i think you'll have trouble turning that around. two interesting things from that abc poll which day, fairness to trump colleagues, give a big lead.

the percentage of republicans that were likely voters were down by seven points from an earlier poll. that should be very alarming. i was trying to find the exact number, but if you look at where republicans and democrats are, clinton was ahead among democrats by somewhere around 85 points, trump was ahead among republicans by around 75 points. that is a decay in the that is a decay in the kind of support he needs. that means and will get to this later, if you asked me about control of the senate two weeks ago i would've said it was about 50, 50. i think it is now 65/35 and the 65/35 in the democrats favor. the house would probably say republican but we will watch the range of possibilities. >> karen, you're the voice of reason, i want your take on the race. also, you covered a number of campaigns, can you imagine in

october or november surprise? >> first and i think if i was going to have to be the voice of reason i should totally swear off any predictions of this race given everything that we have seen. i think the race is not over. it is close to over and i think we have the october surprise and it is probably going to be remembered as a point of no return in this race which was a few fridays ago when my colleague david at the washington post revealed the existence of an unknown until then, but now known by everyone, an audiotape of donald trump talking to billy bush, the hosts of "access hollywood" and saying a lot of things about women, breaking about his behavior to women. there has really been nothing since then that has affected the

race. i think you can look at for instance hillary clinton, white women are coming back to hillary clinton. a lot of the numbers shifting. correct me here, but it can be traced to the release of that tape. we've had the october surprise and the question is whether there is a november surprise. >> we have also had another surprise which interesting in the media is the fact that all the things that came out in wikileaks. i don't know maybe you don't want to cover it or talk about it but that is some information in there that is a treasure trove of things that reinforce the narrative that hillary clinton cannot be trusted. you can just go down the line. but we refuse to talk about it from the media standpoint. that is also in october surprise but until we are honest about the state of this race and getting things and getting back to things that matter which is

the things that secretary -- we could talk about donald trump said 12 years ago or we could talk about what secretary clinton did a few years ago secretary of state. [inaudible] >> i think a couple of things. first of all, donald trump fails to basic threshold questions with a big portion of the voters. the first is that he does not have the temperament to be president. that is being reinforced and a lot of the ads. you now have two thirds of americans who say he does not have the temperament to be president. that comes not from anybody anybody has accused him of. it has come from his own behavior and his own words. whether it is mocking a disabled reporter, if our reporters did that they be the printable's office and two seconds and everyone of us what is said what are you doing this is not how you behave.

his language about women is unacceptable. his behavior toward women is completely unreal unacceptable in the number of women coming forward. and his behavior with immigrants and people of color. he reiterates it. hillary clinton is a respected secretary of state and senator. you don't don't say under your breath nasty women, that women are sick it not taking it anymore. i think that his own behavior has disqualified him. what is whether it's been sexist races, bully or his temperament to be president. one thing i think is interesting is the validator ads on tv right now that are two thirds of the ads running against donald trump right now. frankly to the most powerful ones are gentlemen who was in control of the nuclear code who

said i was the one at the other end of the red phone and i prayed that call never came. and and i to thank you general for your savers service for keeping us safe. that is a very powerful, that the most powerful i. and then the mom of a disabled child who said this is not how we treat people earn respect people. >> let's talk about wikileaks. >> general cut. [inaudible] donald trump's temperament. [inaudible] >> first of all originally on

cnn, it was a good interview the president was asked about the u.k. voting to stay in the european union. i don't think you need to count anybody out in any election. i think it's foolish to think that. you never know. it could be embarrassing to someone if they said it's really over and it's not. i will go there at all. part of the reason i say that his eyes with mr. trump in colorado the other day. this is the first time of ever done it, i don't know how crowds work and if they know the size of it. what we're told was that there be 3500 people at the airport, therefore thousand in the hangar, 4000 airport, therefore thousand and the hanger, 4000 outside, 2000 standing on the sidelines.

somebody has to tell me what's going on to get crowds like that. they're old, young, half were women, their disabled, i saw that earlier in colorado springs and in green bay, wisconsin. i don't know what crowds means. i don't know if it's enthusiasm or what. but i've seen america out there and i'm very confident in what they have done and what's going confident in what they have done and what's going on. when you talk about temperament, i would not be with mr. trump if i do not think he had the president of the united states. i'm have skin in the game. what i'm eating by that, my son-in-law has spent four tours, two in afghanistan, two in iraq, he will teach at west point next year. my younger son is heading to afghanistan. my. my daughter spent a year in afghanistan. i have friends, relatives, going forth and doing the work of this nation going forward. if i didn't believe he was the right guy, i would not be with him. i would not put my son at that level. we have 200 former flag officers, admirals and generals who are with them. including two delta commanders. we are including two delta commanders. therefore star commanders, people have served at the joint

chief and senior commanders in combat. we have 23 metal of honor recipients. you talk about temperament. you people say were with you, were okay, there has to be something there. i think you need to sit back and think about it. this is the first time of ever been involved in a political campaign. by the way it will probably be the last one for sure. enough is enough. but i trust in him and i believe in him. i've been with them long enough to know the type of individual he is. my daughter said you know what you want to do is write a story called behind closed doors and explained what he's really like when he's behind there and when he's talking to you and i said well one i have a five pag. but i look at them and i see what he talks about how he talks. he asked hard questions what i call's edge questions. that is a question of do you really want to answer because it so hard.

questions like doing need a nuclear triad? in the go yeah then he said well don't have to modernize it at 45,000,000,000 dollars per year. where you can get the money from. he takes you. he takes you down these rabbit holes that are hard. the former secretary of defense for recently said we don't need it, i happen to believe we do. as i as i look at his temperament and decision-making. i'm not talking about the visual person you see out there on tv and everywhere else. i'm looking behind closed doors and how he talks. the second second one is that i like this. family matters. look at his family. pretty. pretty good family. pretty good people. so i don't like getting involved in the rhetoric when i he said what to whom or what's going on. i think the last debate was the best because the first two debates started off with personality questions the first question unless debate was the supreme court. that's what you should be concerned about. i think that was a great start of the debate. that's where we need to go. when people talk about personalities it's a mistake.

we have too many issues out there that have to be solved. let's laid out, sit back. when i was asked on tv's show what you should do i would ask every american who votes to take a minute before they go into the voting booth and sit back and reflect on this nation, not in personalities but where this nation is going to go. do we want the status quo election or change it and how do you wanted to go and then vote. >> i didn't want to particularly comment on that. go on. i'll be happy to answer later on. [inaudible] many of the polls are saying we thought the people were going to

send the european union. a lot of people compare that with the trump phenomenon. can you imagine that the elite in this town, that the pollsters and the establishment made just be wrong on this? >> holes wrong? i cannot accept that idea. [inaudible] >> no. they are not's. let me just say. >> and that is up poll that told you that. [laughter] >> let's me just say that i have gotten that brexit to question at every four and it's a fair an important question.

it goes to the question of turnout. the difference between brexit and the presidential election is one, what, what i call a referendum. a referendum on ideas and essentially it has no structure. so people who turned out or chose to turn out, it obviously was a turnout question. what i'm telling you is, we have party identification, we have assumed that group of ideas that we are able to play off of with a lot of history. given all of that, i don't see it, i don't think it is there. i guarantee you there will be one poll that will show donald trump winning, or multiple polls. if you look at the vast preponderance of things i would pick up where karen started and that is we're going to have to see a lot of change in 14 days to be able to see the difference.

the major thing i would say is the question of turnout. at this stage of the game both in early voting and what we see in the polls it would suggest that the turnout would be strong on the democratic side. >> there's a poll that has donald trump ahead right now in a tracking poll has trump and clinton tied. >> can i just say on brexit, there there are a couple things about that. it's a bit of hard to say brexit, the polls all showed brexit was going to lose. i'm quoting from a poll that morning and said three of four surveys published wednesday depicted a contest too close to call. so brexit, we did not have an brexit the kind of polling we have at the moment.

again, we don't know what will happen between now and election day. but if they are at all like they are now, it is hard to see trump winning. secondly take a look at the map behind us. if you give trump all of those yellow states that are uncertain, then uncertain, then take florida and nevada away from clinton, she still has an electoral vote majority. she is sitting in a clear place. so we have disagreements and a lot of issues but when i think when he's a personalities i don't think that is the point. i think they're right when they talked about threshold questions. look at the last debate. trump did reasonably well at least for the first half hour when it was all about issues. where he broke down was on these questions of suitability for office, like temperament. where he qualified for president

that question usually yields about 65% say no. those are very hard numbers for candidates overcome which is why you have so many republicans out there who are on the ballot with him winner having a hellish time dealing with him. they don't they don't know which way to go. kelly in new hampshire in the same day said he was a role model and a few hours later he's she said he wasn't. of joe haack and nevada you have republicans who don't were to be with trump. if they had more confidence on these core questions i don't think he would be having those problems and they would be having the problems. >> i want i want to send brexit the more interesting question whether the polls are accurate, is what produced brexit produced trump two. and what produced brexit and trump produced bernie sanders and what produced all three of him is anti- immigrant movements

around europe and the united states. i think it raises a question for postelection whoever's in charge about with the challenges. to me i think there are three major factors that we need to grapple with as a country that are very important for the future of our country. i think the audience of millennial's are leaders on this question. one is, if you are 50-year-old white worker in the united states, white, blue-collar worker, states, white, blue-collar worker, you've worked your entire life and never seen her raise. in real dollars. something is fundamentally wrong. wrong. to that same white worker, 85% think your kid is going to be worse off than you are. so you worked your brains out and get her raise in your kids are going to have a chance. >> the core of the trumpet meant that there's a core group of americans who think -- so karen,

what about those voters have we in washington missed? i don't think last election we spent a lot of time talking about working-class. >> four years ago when the republican party and mitt romney were convinced that he was going to win and was surprised when he didn't, the republican set out on a big project to remake themselves. it was how do we reach out to women, young people, the, the assumption in washington was that immigration overhaul was a foregone conclusion because that was how the party was going to survive. six days after the 2012 when this wisdom was setting in as to how the party was going to have

to go, a gentleman on fifth avenue new york rocha 300-dollar check to the patent and trademark office in washington and sent in an application to trademark the phrase, make america great again. donald trump, six days after the 2012 election, and i have all of this stuff on my own and saved on my desk top. as you can find it on the internet, his two years of fighting. he had to block lettering sketched out, everything. >> could you bring up a good point. [inaudible] i think you simply put it in what his view is. to

me it it has come down to very simple. the election is a status quo or change. it's that simple. if you like what is happened the night last four, eight, 12, 16, the new path is very clear. and you vote for hillary clinton. if you're tired what is happened out there and you see happened out there and you see the change environment and the possibility of change then you vote for donald trump. both have flaws. both have issues that you may be concerned about. but that's what it comes down to. when you look at the americans have gone out there and go to pennsylvania, tracked that one on election night. when president obama won, he won he won allegheny county by a thousand votes, that's pittsburgh. you go out there and start looking at signs out there and who's behind them, go around your neighborhoods. have you noticed that the signs this year are not as prevalent in past elections.

i live in what i like to say the republic of arlington, virginia, coming in on 395, you know how many hillary clinton signs i saw? none. i walk my dog around and i saw three signs. i don't see trump signs, but i think the people are frustrated with what is going on out there and they're trying to find a way to change it. that's what were into. that's why said i have this thing about people. this is about personalities. but i think there is the frustration of american people and i got involved in thought when are we really going to see change. what are we going to see it. we hear about every four years, every 22 years, were going to change. nothing ever happens at all. >> want to just mention, pr i am

breaking several poll coming out tomorrow and we ask a question about -- i want to cite one question that the question is asked, do you think america is better off 50 years ago or better off now? it splits the country down the middle. what you have are african-americans and latinos they were better off now given the progress that has been made. upscale americans, americans, college-educated american site we are better off now. but not college-educated americans say we are worse off now. the title of the polis america 2015 or 1950. i think the i think the blue-collar component comes in two parts. some is the economic mess that a lot of noncollege folks have been in for a long time.

nothing personally of hillary clinton wins, i think she should spend the three months between election day you are traveling to some of the small towns in a country where she will get clobbered and talk about the fact that the grievances people have in those places are legitimate. the other side is a reaction on race, religion, real sense that the country is not the same country people grew up in. the largest group for those who say we are worse off out were evangelical christians. for trump coming out to be candid and talking about an element that he is very conservative or right wing or whatever word on race and immigration. another piece overlapping that you cannot completely separate these things. people have some real economic grievances given what is happened to them as described so well. the second second is a huge problem for the country

that doesn't matter if you're a democrat or republican we have to do something about it. the divisions are subdued we need to find a way to do something about. [inaudible] the map that you see changes every few days the yellow states in the tree battleground states, the light blue states lean toward clinton, the light red lean toward trump but theoretically there still either way. so i want to start by turning all the yellow states read and give them to donald trump and then give me your path to donald trump becoming president of the

united states. we've had some lofty conversations, these concepts only work if you can convince voters if certain remaining states that donald trump -- >> i'm a gop commentator on the poster. but i will will tell you that if you give him florida -- saw this is a rigged election, sudan say. [laughter] [inaudible] >> i was expect more for georgetown. >> may be some hanging chad. >> i look at florida, pennsylvania there's traction there. so the point is -- any other

states? >> i'm voting for him in virginia so let's give him virginia. but here's a point that speaks to this, i believe there is a growing growing group of individuals to me talk about the 50, the way people over 50 you haven't had race. i do not know what poles you look at a few talk to, but of times a hyper middle-class white people, it's really hard for black people. i know that because i happen to be black and i'm a republican so people tried to play my placard all the time. but my own family, friends and people i speak to in the community, there is a growing sense that they, we the black arlette behind in the economy. if you have more black people owning homes to break depression

the new do now, we have some severe problems. there are a lot of black people who look at mr. trump and say, i'm not good to say this publicly, but in terms of make america great again which president bill clinton said plenty of times, there's a real sentiment that america can be great again. my grandfather worked at sears retired and open up his own air-conditioned refrigeration business, what he did 30 or 40 years ago was able to buy all of his children a car, give them a down payment for their home. when i went to pepperdine my mother was not able to do any of that for me. my mother, i actually have always made more money than my mother. so when you look at the economy and jobs and the plight of a black americans and certain urban centers like detroit, chicago, baltimore, these are real issues. they might not commencing on for donald trump but when they vote they will think for themselves, what has secretary secretary clinton done

for me lately? will she was secretary of state, while she she was first lady, but she was united states senator. what has she done. i think that's a a growing contingent of african-americans, millennial's, the student loan debt has not improved and is not going to improve if you look at what she's proposing. there's a a number of people who are going to the ballot box and vote for him. so this this map is not including him. >> the trump campaign will say trump voters are not -- what is your response to the suggestion -- [inaudible] >> since many of the polls show 0% i guess 1% would be like 100%

increase. so maybe. the think of it is, say one thing., say one thing. i would give both the -- hillary clinton needs to make sure his her exceptional qualifications and leadership do not become an argument for the status quo. i think she has struggled throughout the campaign. if you look at the number of plans that she has put out she is for change as well. america is for change. everybody agrees this is not working. it's not working for lots of people. i think michelle and barack obama said it best. they will close close up the election and on this message that will unify the african-american community which is at the cdc meeting. you haven't seen that speech pulled up, i don't care what you think of brock obama, it's one of the most inspirational speeches of our lifetime. but he says i'm on the ballot, our ideas are on the bout, our the ballot, our legacy is on the ballot. i think that is what

african-americans think. i don't think you can call any group of people, i'm from montana, you can call them and said you come to this country is a bunch of racist and hope to get our votes. >> that's not what he said though. a minute ago you said something about mr. trump talking about coming after african-americans and calling them racists and how he treats them. if were going to make these claims we need to be accurate. he did not say that as his opening stamey. you tell me one thing that's a negative drug a door toward african-americans but you can't do it because he hasn't said a. let's be accurate. >> i'm sorry, he said they come here, they break the law, their rapist, and then he says some of them are nice people. he said that word. that's a fact. it's on tape. in terms of the african american community, first really want african american community, first really want to greet you on one thing which is the very forces that have been hitting the working-class white america hit the inner city about 30 years ago. you're right, african-americans had been hampered by the same

forces of the industrialization. but his appeal to african-americans is essentially made the whole african-american community look like they were in a state of absolute catastrophe. >> when were you in detroit? have you been to baltimore? >> yes. >> look at the educational system. >> his picture was of the entire african-american community. we can play the tape and then argue. >> let's play the tape. >> this is why sn is going a set is going to do this one time. [laughter] >> because what is happened we talk about the enormity of the problems we have in the nation. and then then always do is say who said what about home. you can go back to hillary clinton about deplorable's. get away from that. my concern is about the issues out there for this nation. it is a a lot more important than we sit around and talk about some of these things they see in the

press and the news. that's why masking people on this talk shows, sit back and think really hard about things like the supreme court. we talk about the supreme court the first question, the second amendment, the gun control in dc. there is a 5 - for decision of the supreme court. another decision that codified gun control in the second amendment in the united states. those are things that are important for americans out there. the makeup of the supreme court. the makeup of immigration. all of those are important. sit back and think hard, where do i want this nation to be that i am a part of. how do we get there. that's the reason i said step back. what i would like to do is the, he made about the map. i have a special map here. i've a special one i would like to see happen.

i think hillary will carry virginia. start again and i will show you where we will be at. give us the yellow. [inaudible] >> you will love this one. give trump florida and give us colorado, virginia is going to be a blue state. but you look at main, that i think we have a shot out there at nevada. actually what i was going for out there and did not come up was to 69 into 69. i think that's really where i want to be. [inaudible] >> the second district of me,

and there we are and i talked about having fun and want to remember. let the house of representatives decide this one because then we are to 69 and 269. i think it only befitting press it only be fitting for us to go there in the selection. >> i would unite the country. [laughter] everybody would be unhappy. >> i would just like to say one of these maps may actually be true. [inaudible] [inaudible] >> let me pick up something is people are going forward. i think the big point that we need to come back to is linda and ej have been talking about. that is the division. we picked it up in early focus groups all the way back in january of 2015.

it was both bernie sanders and donald trump, two sides of the same coin. it was a vote against the status quo. this is a change election. the reason that hillary clinton is ahead is not because of her programs over she is at, at, but the voters have rejected donald trump. it may be a situation where he has not gotten his point across. it does come down to demean your and behavior. i think it is the same thing we seem from the beginning. >> some of you are arguing that hillary clinton can be seen as an agent of change. she is the most establishment figure in america. when i been chalk talking to trump supporters these are people who have seen the last three presidents in a row elected on an idea that somehow i can make washington, the

system, work better. and better. and they don't to buy it anymore. so hillary clinton, you talk about her proposals are primarily as barack obama argues, building on what he has already done. she really can't position herself as an agent of change. what she has had to do and unsuccessful in donald trump has helped, is just reminded people of what they find unacceptable about donald trump. >> the reason this may not be a change election is because you have the right track, wrong track number which suggested is in your president obama's approval number which is about 53 or 54% which says it isn't. the argument it is in. the argument for continuity can actually appeal to people about one third or more of the people who say we are on track are actually democrats who are mad republicans, but we are divided.

so that is why it is a mistake to see this is a change election. >> one thing i would also add that you are adding that is important is that under fitting a lot of these -- it goes back to peter's original point. the country is divided partisan lee. it is poor lysed and in some ways this is reflecting that. people have gone back to their corners. one of the divisions we had is the role of government which is one of the things that underpins the gender gap. a majority of women believe there is a role for government. a majority of the men say it's a good when government hasn't hurt you. and government does more harm than good. so when you say blow up the system that is a great message it to independent men. it's not a great message to independent women who think you can do a lot of distraction and a lot of damage when you go blow up the system. how about revamping the system so that message had already and

an innate gender gap. >> . . >> >> just to take a moment the donald trump said brought

the campaign with fair trade he would end the bad deals that we have. how does he do that quite. >> there are three questions instead of one. it is the relations with china going back into my soviet role sometimes i do miss the soviets. [laughter] they were predictable. with the chinese it is mutual respect but also understand there important trading partner with the united states of america and if we have concerns as most americans do based on the south china sea even though the hague said that is a legal going forward statice $40 billion of trade so that is an important part of the world.

i think every for a nation should be one of respect like with the russians if you like putin and not you have to treat a global nuclear power with respect to president reagan did that with gorbachev and called the evil empire of but kids to work with him. that is a great question. use have to establish those good relationships between senior partners. >> an interesting conversation but the democrats would have won at one negative would have won the popular vote but the republicans seem to have taken away with those midterms. but that coalition of republicans to take that house of congress had uc

those political parties realigning? >> and with that house and senate. but all republicans should re-read the autopsy published 2013. that those who are creating them souls with the latino voters but if you want to build a future so they lost of the last election and that is why all fleeing sequel that clinton is ahead and probably will lead.

that is a huge advantage in the midterms. en the older white voters are a larger share of the midterm electorate. if you look at those missing voters 2008 through 2010 or 12 therefore team that is 45 million missing voters. this seems that is the democrats' problem. but also they have to begin to cut their losses because when they did well on the midterm they were much smaller there are of the engine of senate races

shifting favorably to the democrats last couple of weeks but they are in much better shape and in the of high 18th on a goodnight maybe the twenties which is very hard for them to get 30 seats. that would take extraordinary blowout for them to get the majority back in the house. >> just the quick comment delectable -- electrical -- electoral college works gives republicans. but mr. trump is a populist. >> but he said i am voting for trump i am not voting for comstock. that is an interesting comment.