tv Public Affairs Events CSPAN December 6, 2016 9:13am-10:01am EST
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and they echo chambers. one starts on the east coast of boston, one hartford goes to new york, post on from only 10, philadelphia, baltimore and washington. if "the new york times" "washington post" bubble. and then to go to seattle and come down from seattle to portland to francisco, l.a. that is "the l.a. times." the san francisco comical bubble. and then he got a small bubble around the great lakes. if you look at the map of where the rat and the blue is coming to see that what happened. the buffalo bob the broke this time. he broke that blue bubble there. the point i made before is the american people aren't necessarily looking for the smartest candidate. they are gaining something. he was talking to someone totally different then you and they voted for him. >> here's a great statistic that
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an average 10% of the american people have a postgraduate degree at our post-undergraduate degree of some sort. hillary clinton won all 18 states where people have a bug that 10% average, all the states in which people have are more likely to have a higher degree and only one of those. the smart people is for clinton. >> the smart people you've got another question. this doesn't generate into a technical morning. have a specific question about some and mike mccurry alluded to. that's the exclusion criteria. this is a bipartisan group
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>> at the nonpartisan group. all correct view. it's always been headed by the former heads of prominent officials said the democrat or republican party. he was founded by democrat and republican parties. >> is a very specific one and i hope you can actually say it. your criteria is 15% and the quote, unquote major poll. when some people came and said the data are criteria that 50% of the american people wanted somebody else to be on that they should be included as well. paul kirk and alan simpson on the board said that's a ridiculous criteria. the only question is who you want to be president.
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there is a problem here and the problem is no poll asks the american public who they want. it's a very specific question. >> investor question. >> no i haven't. >> no poll is asking the american public who they want to be president. >> what is your question? >> that's a different question. why aren't you abiding by your criteria? >> we are. we been sued in every election cycle other than to fascinate with the question of what the criteria is and whether or not we are following the standard. i must be candid with you. we constantly look at criteria between every single series of debates. there's some on the commission who think it should be higher. some think lower. others have volunteered that everybody on enough ballots to
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conceivably get to the electrolyte to be included. we decided to go with the league of women voters who in 1980 is at the 15% rule. as the debate most people forget what people forget what the president of the united states refuse to participate because someone about 15, john andersen was invited to participate. the question of what the criteria should we, we can input every four years. we look at it hard, did it again this time and decided the 15% rule was one we should stand by. >> et cetera there were an election where we had two major party nominated candidate they were not regarded favorably by the majority of american, where there was an opportunity for a third-party independent candidates who inspire people, get support, get about 15%, this is the election. the fact is neither gary johnson nor jill stein generated that
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kind of enthusiasm. the problem was in our problem. it is their problem. >> thank you. very interesting. next question, please. >> ran into jonathan hallman, farmer with cnn and msnbc. this question is for ms. raddatz and mr. wallace. "the new york times," "washington post" and others that i agree with you. however, the majority of stories that were shared, the story shared the most came from is more alternative sources of areas that turned to be fake news from these sites. i'm curious to see your thought on what is being led to the growth. it seems except as set people seems except incite people of having these kinds of stories. as we saw this past weekend, what turned out i wanted to pizzerias in d.c. i'm curious what your thoughts are.
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>> well, you know, it always has. there were times when the circulation for the national enquirer was greater than "the new york times." it is challenging for the democracy, but it doesn't change our job as journalists which is to do the best reporting, most honest reporting weekend. as i say, there's going to be more noise out there and the world is changing. people were saying to me i quoted an article in "the new york times" about whether we should be reporting donald trump's tweets and my reaction is if it is newsworthy absolutely. in 1980 when i was covering reagan and he would go out to the helicopter and people shot a question and he would give a quick answer. but some of the time he was giving an answer and it was off the cuff, but it's interesting,
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it was news that we reported that. >> bill clinton used to give answers coming back from mcdonald's after his morning jog and we stopped him. >> dishes more social media. it's spreading and spreading and nothing is stopping it. people need to sit back and figure out if it's news. i don't know how they do that. >> i think we've ran out of time again. >> i want to thank you very, very much. >> thank you all for being with us. [applause] you did very well. [inaudible conversations]
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>> next, look at how technology trends are impacting business and consumers. it is half an hour. >> talking about interconnectedness and automation, our next speaker has such a complicated and unique cv that i'm just going to read it to you. one of the world's leading investors as the principal creator of the first flat at skinner with optical character recognition. printed is reading machine for the blind, text-to-speech synthesizer, and music synthesizer of instrument and commercially marketed large vocabulary speech recognition software. he has received a technical grammy award, the national medal of technology holds doctorates
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in honors from three presidents and has written five national best-selling books. he's heading up a team developing machine intelligence and national language understanding and he has a future as to the state or to your track record of accurate prediction. please join me in welcoming ray kurzweil and ross sorkin to the stage. ♪ >> it's a privilege to be here. i should tell you it's a treat for me almost socially took the opportunity to spend time with ray who is a bit -- i'm a little starstruck myself in terms of walking out on the future i somebody who really is not just an author and inventor, but somebody thinks about the future
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in ways that i can even possibly comprehend. thank you for being with us. i want to start the conversation here, which as you talk about the idea of physical immortality and you say it's going to be possible. explain yourself. >> i'll never be able to come on the stage and say i've done it. i've lived forever. i talk about three bridges to radical life extension. i've written a few houseboats. bridge fund that we can do to bridge to. a key idea of mine is information technology progresses exponentially and how the medicine is now an information technology and that is the general project and the first cost a billion dollars, but it's not just selecting this object code of life that is
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progressing exponentially. our ability to understand it, modeling it, moderated is growing exponentially. we are now getting clinical applications of biotechnology. for example, you can now fix a broken heart. romance or take a few more developments in virtual reality. half of all heart attack survivors we can now fix by reprogramming stem cells. we are successfully installing the patient's own dna and animals. we can talk all day about these examples. what's now a trickle will be a flood within 10 years. that is bridge to you. and then bridge three we will have medical robots that are computerized, besides the blood cells. we have intelligent devices that
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keep us healthy. they are blood cells, but they involve thousands of years ago. so they recognize cancer, for example. it doesn't go after it. we can finish the job with the robots. there are detailed design qaeda go after every disease once we have these devices. that is a 2030 scenario. so that is the third bridge. ultimately we will merge with artificial intelligence. we can talk moreabout that. >> the reason i want to bring this up as we all take time to understand that the future actually looks like. part of that future in your mind that this is an enormous singularity. >> we start with the idea of extending our mental capacity with a.i. so we party does not. you've misplaced your cell phone so you're not enhanced up a
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moment. but most people if they leave their cell phone, they feel like they are incomplete. they are not yet inside our bodies and brains. some people like parkinson's patients cannot all be retained in the 2030s. the connector neo cortex is the outer layer of the brain where we do our thinking to the cloud. if you remember 2 million years ago we got this large fur hats. before that we were walking around with a slanted brow, no frontal cortex. without this additional quantity and what we did is we put it at the top of video cortical hierarchy. issues become more interesting than more complex. that was the enabling or for humanoids to advance language and art, poetry and newspapers i can't does. no other species does that. it was a one-shot deal. our school couldn't keep expanding.
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we will protect her neo cortex wirelessly to the cloud did most of the things we do with that. it is in power as we speak and we will then connect to simulated neo cortex and again like we did 2 million years ago to her neo cortex hierarchy. but there's pure information technology to expanding exponentially. so we will be a hybrid of biological thinking and nonbiological sink in which i believe has already started outside our body and will become smarter. by 2045 above expand as such a profound transformation that we've called it a singular change in human history. >> card is a change creativity? a number of people are effectively created. whether it's a product or
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marketing a product. how does the singularity, the augmentation as technology changed the way we think? >> first of all, it's already transformed the world. my father was a musician. he had to hire a novice or just a year as conversations and there'd or just hears conversations america's late night conversations on the phone or he's raising money to hear his own competition. how a kid can do that in a dorm room with your notebook computer. everyone in fashion industry design is using all kinds of graphical tools to expand our creativity. creativity in art and design and music is exactly what happened at the top of the neocortical hierarchy. primates, which have almost as bigger brain, but don't have as big as the neocortical hierarchy. they don't have the frontal
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cortex to do these things. they don't have language, they don't have music. every human culture we discovered has music. we will add more to the hierarchy when we can augment it with artificial neo cortex, a.i. and will become more creative, humorous and other things that have been pre- >> there i asked at the computer ever become more creative. there is a fantastically interesting thing going on in my bid with various a.i. operated computer drawing a new picture every week. he tries to capture the sentiment that the way people are feeling and it draws a different picture. the pictures are okay right now. i assume they'll get better. >> my view is us versus them. we've seen that scenario and not
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said a idea still being creatures will be a.i. versus human for control of humanity. we are already very mixed up with it. we don't have one or two in the world. we have several billion of them. these are a.i. is connected to the cloud. we create these to expand our reach. who here could build a skyscraper? we have machines that leverage our physical abilities. a kid in africa with a cell phone can access all of human knowledge of the few keystrokes. we will connector neo cortex expanded and add to the top of the hierarchy and not as where we do design a new fashions and other creative work we do. that doesn't mean conflict will go away. worthy of conflict in the road between different groups of humans augmented by our machinery and artificial intelligence. that is going to continue.
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we will basically expand our creative. >> when you think about the future of the economy and add augmented world that you just described, there are some people who think this'll be great for society and others who think most of us are not going to have jobs. >> first of all, jobs is an economic system that we use to meet our needs. penny pritzker mentioned 3.2% economic growth picked economic growth statistics ignored the increased value of the dollar. i spent a few hundred dollars for this device and that counts as a few hundred dollars of economic activity despite the fact that it's a billion dollars in immediate or a trillion dollars in 1965 the computation in vindication.
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millions of dollars of economic activity. a $7000 by encyclopedia britannica appeared encyclopedia britannica. that is $50,000 of economic dignity. i have a much better one that counts because it's free. they say okay, but show the strange world of devices and so on but you can't wary. you can't live in it. all of that is going to change. we will be able to print our closing the 3-d printers in the 2020s. we are not quite there yet. that's improving at a rate of 100 per decade. we look at there by 2020. >> drill down on map for a second term and the idea that we will print that for pennies on the dollar. >> sophisticated increasing varieties of project will become feasible. >> what about the commodities? i've still got to pay for the
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cashmere. >> we are going to be able to increase the types of products including the types of materials that were used. clothing already is a lot less expensive than it was 100 years ago. 20 years ago a lot of ago a lot of movement was formed because we have new technologies emerging that could automate the making of clothing. in fact now the common man, woman could have a whole wardrobe rather than just one shared. but this revolutionized manufacturing you will have open source versions of products and proprietary versions testing. let's take several other industries that have already then transform to information products. if i wanted to send you a book by music album a few years ago i was send your fedex package. now i send you an e-mail. there's millions of high-quality free documents and books and movies and songs and will have a
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very good time that free media products. people still see the latest blockbuster with the coexistence of the open source markets. what happens to the revenues of those industries? they've gone up, not down field by the distributed and marketed and we can tell you you're going to like this movie or this song based on what we've noticed your preferences are. the same thing will happen with the fashion industry. they will still be designed with the latest designers that people spend money for. manufacturing is going to be transformed. impacts unemployment, the the perception is entirely opposite the reality. i would say 38% of the work on farms and i predicted 100 years they'll be 2%.
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25% in factories of the 8.7%. they'll get jobs to the design on the web and created the websites and applications for devices and chip designs we will create new jobs to create the ones. what new jobs? my answer would be we haven't invented them that yet. that is a bad political answer but it's reality. this really has changed and this is different this time. this didn't just five years ago. people creating mobile devices and websites and new applications. >> most of them, is to grab the and a great example sold for a billion dollars a minute digital
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world that is different than tangible goods. >> we've gone from 24 million jobs to 142 million jobs today. what about percentage of the population? 31% to 44% having jobs. what about the wages of those jobs? they've gone up for our 11 fold over the last 100 years. has that really happened over the last five years? the answer is yes, all these economic dvds exist now that did before. >> you don't include those living in some kind of luxury or the shared. we will become part of the leisure class. >> i think 100 years ago you were happy to have it back breaking job to put food on your family's table. today not everyone, but an increasing percentage could definition an identity and
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gratification and self-actualization from their careers. the idea that you are going to study for a trade and have one type of job that you keep 40 years, 30 years and retire, that model has already gone away. the perception is quite different. there was a poll of 24,000 people in 26 countries that will let gone up or down or how much? 87% thought and correctly that poverty had gotten worse. over 1% identified that it had been done by 50% or more. this is similar in every other economic area. part of the reason is people cannot see the writing on the wall. you hear about these autonomous vehicles and that makes you nervous. people didn't have that level of information.
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part of the reason people think is the information about getting exponentially better. i would like to point out the better angels is the most peaceful time. what are you kidding? didn't you hear about the incident yesterday and last week? something happens halfway around the world in falluja and we experience it. that could be a big battle that wiped out the next village. 100 years ago you would hear about it. in every area, democratization you can count the number on one hand a century ago. become the number of democracies on one finger two centuries ago. not every country is the perfect democracy, but in all these areas, democratization, human freedom, peace, economic activity, this is the most beneficial time in human history.
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we didn't have any safety net. >> you don't think in 20 or 30 years we will have a universal income be so many people will be out of work? >> i'll give you an example. >> we had 52,000 college students in 1970. we have 20 million today and another five to 10 million. 30 million, 10% of the population of the united states. 20% of the workforce. they are studying poetry and history and appomattox and music and that is considered a useful thing to do. so we are going to redefine the nature of work. you greeted mobile devices and that could give you 100 activities that didn't exist five, 10 years ago. >> does this ultimately create far less customers which to say
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what happened as a function of all the things. >> we are becoming wealthier and a lot of our activities and gratification in terms of beauty and creativity. if you look at the statistics of the fashion, it has gone up. it used to be a very small percentage of the population. we are going to be very wealthy. people say when i point out this exponential growth of the value of information products, people say as i said before, you can't eat information products. so i mention 3-d printing of clothing that were also going to be producing food, very inexpensively using agriculture, basically artificial intelligence, controlled food production at low cost.
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ard is a demonstration put together three story put together three story office buildings snapping together modules printed on the 3-d printer like lego bricks. very low cost them three days will be the nature of creating structures from the houses and buildings in the 2020s. the physical things we need ultimately will be provided to a.i. controlled 3-d printing at very low cost. we will have the physical resources to provide the highest levels and are delivering for everyone in the world and we are already well underway towards that. poverty and a shot over the last 25 years has been cut by 90% according to the world bank and south america and africa are not told they moving in the right direction so we are wealthier, but our perception of what is wrong with the world is increasing. they will have more information
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about the threats to their economic security and data sent in a security and understand and apply to focus on any election is people are better off but perception of their economic security is infused with more knowledge of the change in the world. we adapt very quickly. we think it's always been not play. >> to other smart fellows who have a less rosy for shand relating to add. elon musk and bill gates say that a.i., artificial intelligence represents our greatest existential threat. >> i started writing about this in the 1990s and i wrote the 1999 about the great intertwined promise versus peril of artificial intelligence not
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technology and biotechnology. i don't know if people remember but there is a big cover story by bill joy called what the future doesn't it talking about a dystopian future which he got from my boat. i talk about three things is people go through when they look seriously at the potential of these new technologies. one is inspiration. these technologies have the potential to overcome age-old problems like poverty and disease and short-term -- short lifespans. and then, here is the potential dangers of these technologies. and finally, i think a balanced view that yes these existential dangers exist, but we have means of overcoming them. i'll give you an example where we've done a very good job. we don't yet have existential dangers of artificial
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intelligence, but we do from biotechnology. the same technology we are using to reprogram biology away from cancer and disease could also be used today in routine bioengineering lab at a college near here to reprogram a benign virus like a cold or flu virus and to send in but instead they come the communicable. does recognize more than 30 years ago. they had a conference to talk about this promise. how can i get the promise and contain the peril of biotechnology? they've been recurrent conference is an these have been refined and updated over the years. much of its baked into law. the track record so far as we are now getting, as i mentioned him in the first applications and clinical practice of biotechnology that will become a flood over the next decade and a number of people have been hurt by accidental or intentional by technology so far has been zero.
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that doesn't mean they can cross it off our list. technology keeps getting more sophisticated. we have to update these guidelines. but it is a good example, blueprint for how to deal with these types of technologies. there are ways we can create ethical standards and guidelines to keep these technologies save. it's not foolproof. >> when do we get to designer babies? i ask because i spent the time in the research lab in berkeley which is really on the cusp of where this is. you think that's realistic? >> yes. certainly there are genetic places where you would want to edit out devastating diseases and we are beginning to now make exponential progress in
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understanding the genetic codes that cause this disease has appeared if you were told you could edit that out of your child genome, you would want to do that. i think that is much less significant than augmenting our intelligence to artificial intelligence. that's going to make it vastly more intelligent far beyond what we could engineer for optimizing biology. >> i want to throw it up into the audience. this is news you can use. ray happens to take 90 different pills a day because he plans to stay alive for a very long time. walk us through your regimen. >> people say you take all these supplements and other pills. that will enable you to do 100 years. the answer is no. that is to get to bridge to a bridge to a stop her away. according to my models, 10 to 15 years from now but will be
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adding more than a year every year to remain life expectancy. life expectancy is a physical phenomenon. >> how old are you now? >> people think i look for for 95. i am 68. >> to tell us what you take. >> well, that would take us all day. i'll give you one example of an actual prescription pill that is a diabetes drug. we have known for years that all the people that take that four men and there are millions because it is the most popular diabetes drug have much lower cancer rates. so i did some research with an m.i.t. and we discovered why. it actually kills cancer stem cells which are the real cause of cancer. people don't take it optimally and you really did it take 500 milligrams every four hours to maintain a level. >> you do? >> yeah. >> even people who take one
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every 24 hours have some protection and we see traumatically lower cancer rates as a result. it is also a caloric restriction that it which means that causes the same changes that eating less causes about eating less. i actually recommend anyone over 50 takes that. >> would i want to call her doctor immediately. what else is on the list. then i'll give it over. >> and you can buy it at whole foods. 90% of your cell membrane is that substance, that lifted. when you are a candidate is reduced by 90 or 95%. by the time you're in 90s that causes your organs to work less well. that is why your skin gets less supple. that is why a baby's skin is so soft is news.
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you can reverse that by simply supplementing but that substance. so there's a lot of different stories. i've written different health books about this. >> great, thank you. let's open it up for questions. >> kia, alexander trower. he attacked a lot about some of the interesting things but i haven't heard much about humanity and how our emotional intelligence evolved as these other parts of the world evolve. can you talk a little bit about that? >> emotions are two different things. we still have the old ring that provides basic motivation. the neo cortex which is around the old brain is really the great sublimate her. so i may have and should observation for aggression and
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conquest. my neo cortex will supplement that into writing a book about the future are talking at a conference to leading fashion executives. no other species does those types of things. the neo cortex disorganize hierarchic way. it's a very bottom. i can tell that's a straight line at the top. i could tell that something this funny or ironic or that someone is pretty. and we added additional levels to the hierarchy is a mentioned when we got these big foreheads and that was the enabling factor for us to develop, for example, music. no other species. other primates don't do music. that excess at the top of the neocortical hierarchy. a 16 year girl having brain surgery and surgeons wanted to talk to her and get her reaction to different things than you can do that because there's no pain receptors in the brain. whenever they stimulate particular spots in the neo
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cortex she would start to laugh. at first they thought they discovered some kind of laugh reflex but they quickly realized they had discovered the cortex to detect humor. she just found everything hilarious whenever they stimulated these points. you guys are so funny just standing there was a typical comment. and they weren't funny, not while doing brain surgery. but they found points that discoveredhumor. as i mentioned ,-com,-com ma we will add additional levels to the hierarchy when we could spend a neo cortex by connecting to neo cortex in the cloud. we will become funnier. we will be better at expressing loving sentiments. those emotions that are the fire qualities of humans exist at the top of the neocortical hierarchy. we are going to enhance those as we increase our brain capacity. >> let's get a question right out here.
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>> scott weiland. the idea is exciting but on a planet with a population is growing increasingly exponentially, talk a little bit about resource utilization and sustainability in how we are going to solve those issues. >> rate. as you know, the first thing that happens when nations get wealthier is the population growth rate goes negative. when we start to significantly reduce the death rate, the population will go up again. we have far more resources than we need. take energy. tom friedman, i don't know if he's here, but he's written a lot about energy. we have exponential growth of solar energy. larry page and died before he became ceo of google did a study
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emerging energy technology where we selected solar because it had been growing exponentially forro years. at that point is half a percent. it's a nice thing to do but it's a fringe player at her in the exponential growth because that's only eight dumplings were 100%. now it is 2% still doubling average two years. tom has a graph in this book that shows that progression. only six dumplings from 100%. i presented this to the prime minister of israel recently and he was actually in my gh sunlig? yes, 10,000 times more than we need. once we made all of our energy needs from solar, we'll be using using one part in 10,000 of the sunlight. that's an existence proof because it's a similar story with geo thermal. we have thousands of more energy
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than we need. i mentioned vertical agriculture that will provide food at very low cost for the entire population. we will be able to print out the other things we need ultimately with advanced a.i. controls and manufacturing technologies. so we will be able to meet the material needs of the population. i typed about snapping together homes are in 3-d printed lego modules. we are all crowded together. we are crowded together because we created cities as an early technology so we could work and play together. now the virtual reality is not competitive but becoming more so, we are spreading out. the group is all over the world and we communicate just fine. that will become more realistic as virtual reality and augmented reality become more realistic.
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try taking a train trip anywhere in the world and you'll save 90% of the land is not being used. we use 40% of it for horizontal agriculture which will replace with vertical agriculture. we have plenty of resources for an expanding population even went to radically cut the death rate to the biological population will only double every 15 years or so. the power of these technologies doubles every one here. that is the exponential growth that i called the law of accelerating returns. >> ray kurzweil, i could talk to you forever. and if we get to that level i hope i get the chance. [applause] >> often when you look at a project, you look afterwards to see whether you've achieved your check is in the above costs. i wanted to see through this last half century of military interventions. parties in politics aside and
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morality aside, what happens after the party's over? what are the aftereffects of war as financial costs on both sides? >> i went to all these places. of course we all come with some form of bias. i went to these places with an open mind trying not to understand what a partisan point of view might we be validated, but to look at was the mission accomplished and what were the on both ends?
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yesterday the vice president presiding that portion of the bill for his sunny data cancer last year and the senate voted to advance the entire measure towards a final passage. nova announced yet but that could come as late as the 10:00 hour today. live coverage of the u.s. senate here on c-span2. the president pro tempore: the senate will come to order. today's opening prayer will be offered by reverend t.f. tenney, bishop emeritus of the united pentacostal church international in alexandria, virginia. bishop.
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