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tv   France Post- Election Analysis  CSPAN  April 24, 2017 1:13pm-1:47pm EDT

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>> you need to listen to what i'm saying, brother. you claim to be a christian. you need to act like it. let me answer. let me answer. the bill will be available for you to read it before we vote on it. and i've explained what's in the bill. i've read the bill. i'm the one that put the amendment in it. so you can stand up and call me a liar, you can call me immoral, you can call me spineless, whatever you want to. that's your opinion, but i know what i'm doing. so thank you all for coming. [applause]
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>> this story a short time ago from "the hill," temperature officials said today that the u.s. needs to confront russia for providing arms to the taliban. speaking to reporters in kabul, afghanistan, defense secretary james mattis and hyten nick olson did not get into specifics, but general nicholson said he's not disputing reports that russia is providing support to the taliban. here's more of that story in thehill.com, and that briefing is on our web site at c-span.org. a look now at france 24's coverage of yesterday's elections as far-right candidate marine le pen and independent centrist candidate emanuel marcon won the first round in france's presidential elections. the runoff is may 6th.
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their ricketily speeches follow. -- victory speeches follow. >> so there we have it, emanuel marcon ahead of marine le pen, 21.7% of the vote. this means that for the first time ever in the history of the fifth republic, the two mainstream parties are eliminated after round one, the socialist and the conservatives, and two outsiders, emmanuel macron and marine le pen will face off on may 7th. we thought there might be three names, we now have two names. >> indeed. let's take a look at how other candidates fared. you can see, certainly, an extremely tight race. look at that, as of now they have the same score, they are tied for third, and then look at that dip there for the socialist party, hamon, 6.2% --
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>> that's incredible. >> it really is incredible, under the 10% mark. and let's see if we can take a look at the other candidates just to see where all 11 candidates came in. okay. and then we see pretty much trailing in, 1.5, 1.2. okay. so that being said, mark, this is historic. >> yes. as i just said, no one would have bet that emanuel marcon would be in the lead. marine le pen is ending just a tad under 22%. obviously, this pushes her through to the second round. this is a feat that she, by her father in 2002, but now she'll be facing off against emanuel mar con and already to project ourselves on may 7th.
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the second round, all the polls have shown that emanuel marcon would win canwould become france's next -- would win and would become france's next president. obviously, there are two weeks left to go, but if so, he would become a very, very young president of france. but, obviously, this is a whole new campaign starting tonight. >> indeed. and what a shake-up. let's see, i don't know if we have the images we can, perhaps, pull up of the headquarters there, if we have -- just to see reaction to this news as it come in. [cheers and applause] there we have the images from emanuel marcon supporters, they are certainly ecstatic that their candidate has pulled off something that's never been seen before here in france. once again, it cannot be understated, the fact that this 39-year-old has pulled off this victory, and he does not belong to a political party. he started his own movement a year ago, and he has been able to galvanize support. and that is what we see there. once again, he came out on top. let's see, i don't know if we
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can perhaps pull up the images that we have from northern france where we've got marine le pen's headquarters, but i'm sure the images must be similar. i actually want to pull in alexis who has joined us here, what is your take on what we have just seen happen? >> as you said, historic, because the two main parties are out because emanuel mar cone has no party. and marine le pen has been running, like the past three months she wasn't to be number one and move in front of her. but clearly, emanuel macron has more votes. and the big parties will have to
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think ahead in how they recompose and what's going to be next. because a lot of people will join either/or. and some people from the right saying, well, no, even marine le pen might be the new right, and emmanuel macron might be -- so we'll have to wait and see. hamon being sixth in the polls is very low. >> obviously, going to come out very quickly in the mainstream parties. angela, one thing we can say for once because we've been criticizing the polling institutes -- [laughter] they were right. finish they predicted macron versus le pen, and at least this is estimated from our partner, ipsos, but this is not an exit poll, this is taken from a sample of polling stations -- >> and in a very, very close election, they were very, very
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right. 19.5 for millechand was exactly predicted on friday, the two of them tied at that number. so that's extraordinary. they will be at least happy. the other thing i think that's very noticeable is this is a clear shift to the right in france if you add up disregarding the smaller candidates, 19.5 for millechand, six-point something for hamon. the right certainly tried to present him as someone who wasn't quite in the middle, but was more to the left. but he is a centrist candidate more or less, and that means that the centrist candidate, the main stream right candidate and the far-right candidate collected a huge majority of the votes. and the question now before we go into the second round will be whether to take a leap into the unknown with marine le pen,
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because a lot of the next round will be about europe, and she wants a referendum on leaving the european union, she wants a referendum on leaving the euro, she wants to leave nato. these are big, big decisions. and so macron come to present the status quo and hope in the future. le pen will represent what she's always represented, and perhaps french voters will feel that her time is right. but it looks like -- nothing can be predicted, but it look like macron will probably win. >> that being said, when we see these two candidates -- and as we mentioned, none from the traditional parties -- are we seeing france's just political landscape and really things shifting completely and starting anew? as you had mentioned earlier, this is, you know, the fifth republic. it has ailments, and we're seeing that. is this a fruition of that? >> well, certainly, there's a point to be made this is the collapse of the two mainstream parties.
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and the point we were making earlier about is a crisis of party actually part of the crisis of the regime makes a very interesting deliberation. the question, the immediate question now is what happens in the republican and the party socialist -- >> civil war. [laughter] >> they are going to tear themselves apart now. >> yeah. >> and that actually tells us something about what happens in the future, because in a sense this fifth republic, if you like, only properly functions the be you have a highly personalized president and is so on, but that president has a parliamentary majority. and that is going to create enormous problems. the point being made that, you know, macron doesn't even have a party, let alone a majority in parliament. and le pen, i mean, she got two mps. so there is going to be an
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enormous rocky ride from now on. >> okay. we're just going to have to interject because we are going to cross to claire williams who is at emmanuel macron's rally there at the headquarters. claire, i can imagine lots of energy behind you. [cheers and applause] >> absolutely. i mean, a bunch of people behind me are absolutely ecstatic. they know now that there's a very good chance that emanueling macron will be the next president of france. not a done deal, two more weeks of campaigning to go, but they're pretty confident. there is one thing we need to think about, you can hear them behind me, they're very confident. but the parliamentary elections up in may, and he does not have a party. 14,000 people across the country have said they would like to see a candidate, so there's lot of interest, but there'll be newcomers to politics.
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emmanuel macron, certainly he's a happy, confident man today, but he's also got to think about the parliamentary elections which happen in france in june. >> thank you, claire. and as we're speaking, some reactions are coming from french politicians, especially on the conservative side. the leading republican candidate -- [inaudible] says the result is an earthquake for us, while another -- and that's more interesting for round two. another leader of the party has already called for a vote in favor of e hand well macron in the -- emmanuel macron in the second round. we'll see much more of this. but in the meantime, let's cross to northern france to the national front headquarters. i'm imagining, katherine nicholson, that the mood is rather festive, although maybe, maybe marine le pen was hoping -- and she repeated this -- that she would come out first? >> absolutely.
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i mean, when we started looking at polling for this election, marine he enwas far and away the front -- le pen was far and away the front-runner, well above 25%, which is a much higher score than she ended up getting. there's quite a lot of booing going on, that's because the people who have gathered here are watching french tv. that was where they saw the announcement also first round provisional results. hamon is currently speaking, the socialist party candidate. the people here have been pretty much booing anyone who's not from the national front, i have to say. they also booed emmanuel macron's national headquarters were shown as well as the republican party. at the exact moment when we found out those provisional results, however, there was a real outpouring of chants, of singing, people saying we're going to win. but, yes, what you say, an
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unmitigated jubilant atmosphere here. we will, of course, wait to see what marine le pen has herself to say when she turns up laterren on. >> katherine, we've got some reaction to her victory although in second place, but many reacting, saying that her project will, quote, cause chaos. this is really when we are going to see, indeed, what she has to offer come under tight scrutiny. >> indeed, yes. and i think it is going to be a very interesting debate between the two rounds, because emmanuel macron is very much the centrist candidate, marine le pen has been hoping her far-right message for quite a few years, working on those heartland issues of security, of immigration, of fighting terrorism. quite a few of her supporters here this evening now, those really the issues that they keep mentioning to me time and time again. they want france to close its borders to stop militants coming
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in from foreign countries and bringing in arms and that kind of thing. lot of people here do want to see france leave the european union, and marine le pen has promised at least six months of negotiation with the european union on france's option with it and then a reference tunnel for the french people. -- referendum for the french people. there has been growing anti-e.u. sentiment. there's a lot of nostalgia here in this room -- >> katherine? thank you. we have to cut you off because hamon, the socialist candidate, is speaking right now. [speaking french] >> translator: we have to defeat the national front, and we have to defeat the extreme right. [applause] by voting for emmanuel macron. even if e hand well macron is
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not -- emmanuel macron is not a man of the left, and he's certainly not entitled to represent the left, i still make a clear, total distinction between a political necessary and an enemy of the republic. [applause] this is no time for levity, no time for levity. the struggle goes on. already after the is second round of presidential elections, we'll have the legislative elections, and already thinking of all those who voted for us, i will never leave you, never abandon you. [applause] because you represent the hope of the left, and it's not only the duty of the left, but it is our shared -- [inaudible] because i know where i come from and why i struggle. i will always continue speaking to the intelligence of the great french people. [applause] today, therefore, long live the
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republic, and tomorrow long live the left. thank you. [cheers and applause] >> there you have the socialist candidate, hamon, just addressing his supporters there. of course, a bit of a tough pill for him to wallow, mark, once again. once again, these estimates -- we have to just really insist, these are estimates, of course, that have been taken on initial vote tallies. once again they've given him only just over 6%. >> yes. this is really a historical defeat. he admitted it, he took responsibility for it. and interestingly, he called upon his supporters to vote for emmanuel macron in the second round. and as he was speaking, we've seen a number of conservative politicians also calling for a vote in favor of emmanuel macron while national front officials are calling on more votes for
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marine le pen, including coming from francois francois hollanden camp. so we already see things shifting to really prepare for the second round. i want to ask you, you were hoping that the french would vote the right way just before 8:00. are you satisfied? >> well, let's say that i, i'm against populism, and so i'm glad that we don't have two populist members at the top. i think that at the end of the day what i'm not happy with is this is going to be a default victory. i mean, it is going to take -- it would have taken in the analysis i made before for marine le pen to get 34% vote on a stand-alone in the front round in order for her to be a legitimate candidate in the second round. so the way it plays out in the french elections, first round/second round, i think it
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becomes a default victory. there's only one sensible choice, to use hi term before -- my term before, maybe appropriate voting. but at the same time, we're not voting for somebody we necessarily believe in or know what he's going to do. is that's where my disappointments in. >> and we're talking a lot saying, no, this is a big shake-up, an earthquake considering the traditional parties aren't there. but as we mentioned, macron's the only one pretty much centered, sos has france really voted for more of the same? >> i think that's the result. i mean, he is the default of hollande, and so -- i mean, of course, he has a slightly different policy, expect we're not really sure what that policy or program is. so we'll have to see how that goes. you know, maybe at some level what we have is that he's not part of the institution in that he's obviously a newer candidate within that. so he's, hopefully, going to take it as an opportunity to craft, break down some of the old-fashioned molds that we've had.
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>> i think it's part of the institution, i mean, he's been working for years behind the scenes, and he took the light very well. if you see with hollande and before, this is a hold-up. it's all about the branding culture and how it works. we talked in the campaign how emmanuel macron was actually sort of the guru, and you going to make it, we're going to win. but what is the message, what is the program? so far we had a few bits here and there, but the program came like months before this first round. and people vote because there's something about, well, maybe it's new or it's not. but if you look at his career, what he's proposing, it's hollande, and hollande is very low in the public opinion. so you have to ask, maybe psychology of france people say, what is wrong with you? why would you vote for a guy who is actually -- and it's fine. i think hollande did something that was okay for five years,
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but you want change, maybe you shouldn't choose emmanuel macron. and for le pen being there, i mean, sad, but it's part of the populist movement that we see all over the world in europe. >> just for our viewers, just a reminder. the estimate for our partner, ipsos puts emmanuel macron 27.3% ahead after round one, marine le pen with 21.7%, so a 2% difference between both candidates. i would just like to add that some other polling institutes put them tied at 23%. that doesn't change the fact that they both qualify for round two, but i justin want to add this as an element -- just want to add this as an element of information. that being said, marine le pen was certainly hoping for more. >> yes, she was hoping for more. i would like to just come back to a point that minter and alexis made, is that i am more positive about -- or i read the
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macron victory perhaps in a more positive light than you do. and in a sense, that's not to say that in part you're right, but i think there are other factors involved. i think it is probably unfair to say that macron is hollande's -- [inaudible] now, you could argue this certain objective ways, but he did resign and annoyed an awful lot of people when he did what he did when he resigned from the government and is so on. and -- and so on. and i also think that he initially, the initial surge of his popularity was about doing something modern and different and breaking a lot of the molds that were stopping, that created this, what is called in france this blocked society. and i think to a certain extent the fuzziness over his program was that he kind of got, was slightly trapped in a way, that he couldn't really come out with a program because he was
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standing on a tight rope that he wanted to -- he was neither left, nor right. it was both left and right and tried to develop a program that didn't see him tilt too far in one derek or the other. and -- one direction or the other. and to a certain extent, it's true there have been a set of ambivalent lendses about what his program is. now he has to come out with a program. but the question is that he was held in a sense by his position between right and left. so he came out with some left-wing things, some right-wig things. but i suspect that what he wants to do is more thorough-going modernization than we see at the moment. but i think that the campaign and where his position was in that campaign stopped him from doing it. hopefully, we'll now see it.
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>> as he comes across, i think, as someone who tries to please, tries very hard to please -- >> but it worked. it worked. >> it worked, it worked. but the people on the left, a lot of them dislike him intensely, they find him far too right-wig, the people on the right find him far too. [laughter] -wig. he tries to please everyone, has pleased enough people to do extremely well. >> actually, we're just going to take a pause because we are going to cross back to claire williams who's with e hand well macron's supporters. >> i'm with an american p in paris. how do you feel? >> it's just overwhelming. this might be the most exciting and unpredictable campaign i've ever been a part of. >> why's that? >> you have four candidates who
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were all within margin of error, you had the top two candidates -- and not being part of a traditional political party, this was by tar the most exciting election i've ever within a part of -- been a part of, and we're just getting started. >> so what's next? two weeks until the next round. >> we have an army of volunteers who have been trained to go door to door to convince voters who are hesitating whether or not to vote or who to vote for, to convince them with sincerity, with information, with humanity to vote for a france that is not closed, a france that is democratic, a france that is open to the world, and i think macron's going to win if we keep mobilizing. >> you're not worried that, you're not worried about the parliamentary elections in june? >> we have 250,000 members who are ready to make history and to forge new territory. we have 15,000 potential candidates for legislatives.
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i think we're going to be competing very strongly. >> all right. thank you very much. that was lex wilson, a campaigner, very positive for emmanuel macron. >> thank you, claire. obviously, some inspiration from the obama campaign. how much truth is there in this? french politics are, obviously, totally different from american politics, but this kind of grassroots movement, this mobilizing has worked. >> yes. >> this is not the only reason why emmanuel macron made it, but it clearly played a part. >> yes. we were all told he had a telephone conversation with barack obama last week, lots of pictures put out about that. they assumed it would to his campaign a lot of good. i wonder if obama gave him tips about getting the vote out, because everybody feared that macron's voters who a large majority of them are young people full of enthusiasm, but many people thought after brexit, will they actually go
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out there and vote and, clearly, he was in enough numbers to give him a victory. the other interesting thing about macron is that he's hugely popular amongst french ex-pats who can vote and have voted in large numbers. he's enormously popular in london and in new york and in various places. he's seen as someone who's young and who can get business back going in france, and that, i think, has been enormously helpful. >> indeed, you mentioned we've got just about 1.3 million french nationals abroad. and as we see the numbers here -- once again, with estimates that there are those -- it does have an impact. >> absolutely. >> quick question. when we see things now, what does le pen do moving forward to convince voters to get on her side? >> she'll be on the brexit road. and the good news is that macron has been positioning himself as a pro-european. so the two that take out the
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votes tonight are pro and anti-european. it's very clear. this won't be a question of who you vote for, and europe will be the center of the program. and i think marine le pen will go further in the process of promising more by getting out and closing borders and also putting security and religion back on the table which is an easy one for macron, because he'll be more on the business side and how you make france work again and where the money's coming from. as you said, he's very popular with the ex-pats. to that's good news. and it's all about branding again. if you look at marine le pen, she's on the side of trump and putin, and macron is the new obama, new trudeau, that kind of image will work for the voters, i guess. >> just a quick add-on to what alexis has said, and this is one of her disadvantages, is that -- and -- it's europe. because, and the euro. the french don't want to leave the eurozone.
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the french actually in a majority, even though, you know, europe p annoys them, they don't want to leave the e.u. and if she pushes for this and you could see that in the runup to the first round, she started actually diminishing her references to the e.u. and the euro and giving the idea that maybe these weren't actually. the problem is now she's going to be forced into this by the most pro-european candidate which i think will be a real disadvantage to her because she will have to push for something that the french in the majority are not in favor of. >> right. just as we were speaking, again, we've seen a number of leading conservative politicians lending their support for emmanuel macron for round two, but we've also seen the socialist prime minister formally call for socialist voters to support emmanuel macron as did the socialist candidate, hamon, and as did one also one very close to the current president,
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francois hollande, who said we need to vote for mack p roan. so, manipulator, we see the stars -- minter, we see the stars aligning. le pen, the whole system is against me. emmanuel macron says he's not from the elite, he's the exact embodiment of the elite, and french voters should not be abused by this idea he'sen an outsider. >> i couldn't agree with you more. he comes from hollande administration, and even if he was a banker before where he can appeal to the business people, he is the institution. he is the representation. one of the things i think is interesting to look at is what's happening on social media, because at the end of the day a lot of this mobilization that we saw for marine le pen also came from the younger people. i plugged in deeply to what was happening with some analysis from a company called brand watch looking at what the younger people were doing and
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how engaged were they. so millechand and le pen had far greater audiences and far greater engaged audience and whereas macron on the list of all the criteria that we used is not number one in any of them. so we have half the followers on twitter and a much lower type of engagement because he's what? so right now he's not le pen. and we're, again, going to be voting for not somebody. and i think that the issue we've had in the round of 11 is i like a little bit of this, but you have to be a little more strategic, as i think was said, about how you're going to vote. it's not like i love this person. it's a little bit of that and mostly not that. that's what we're going to end up with in round two. >> angela, what's interesting is the fact that we've seen
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emmanuel macron really try to distance himself, and we've seen attempts in the past with centrist candidates, for instance, one got 18% if i remember correctly in 2007, but there we have this totally new experiment. yes, everyone is criticizing them, but if there's no major accidents, he's france's president. >> yes. some would suggest that because there are only the 19% there for the main stream right-wing candidate. that is pretty much all marine le pen can pick up in terms of votes x that is not going to be enough. >> and it's likely fillon will also go on to support macron. >> exactly. and many of those, most of those, the huge majority of those will go to macron. so it looks as though she -- it looks unlikely that she will win. >> will she be able to -- it's also her own weaknesses -- go after the fact of how will he go
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about governing in terms of -- >> well, she says, the problem is it's a weakness for her as well. neither of them are a party behind them, neither of them can count on a majority. he at least might be able to get together some sort of governing coalition. it's very unlikely she will. no matter is going to support her, and so that is going to be a major weakness for her, the fact that she does not have a parliamentary majority. so whatever she represents might well not come boo being in the same way as we've seen donald trump say i will do this, this and this. at the end of the day, he needed congress behind him. she will need the french national assembly behind her, and it doesn't look like that will happen. >> what's incredible is emmanuel macron, i asked you today who is going to be his prime minister the if he wins. >> nobody knows. >> okay. [inaudible conversations] >> not on voters' mind today, see, or at least not enough to eliminate him.
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>> there's only to him. and and a lot of people around and a lot of, you know, intelligence around, and as we see the ground movement, he had a lout of -- [inaudible] but if you look at the team, the politicians around him -- [speaking french] >> former defense minister. >> yes, former defense minister. who's going to be the guy fighting to be prime minister if he wins, and he should win? >> and what's going to happen with francois is the first to make the move, will the coalition last long enough for things to happen? that's a key question. and i think marine le pen, even she doesn't bin win, she won a big part of what is the french right tonight. and it's sad news, but it's true. i think it will change in the future even further and open more to other currents that

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