so the congress is going like this and by the way, i think that people gave up bowling and took up watching cable television. now they are very impatient and demanding of their representatives and compromises like the worst thing that you could ever do. during the 2016 presidential campaign with donald trump and bernie sanders talked about globalization only helping economic elites. the panel of economists, authors and academics discuss the impacts of globalization and trade policies at an event in los angeles hosted by the public square in ucla. this is about 1 an hour and 15 minutes.

>> steven greenhouse was a reporter for "the new york times" for 31 years and spent his last 19 years at the time that the labor workplace reporter covering topics ranging from poverty to fight for 1 15 fast food disasters and bangladesh. he's also the author of the award-winning books the big squeeze tough times for the american worker. please give a warm welcome to mr. steven greenhouse. [applause] >> good evening and welcome to the discussion discussing a hot topic the globalization served as global elites in the course of the news we see article after

article about how the workers in youngstown and base their economic growth and those against globalization are often beneficiaries of globalization. they use their mobile phones assembled in china. for the big show an excellent panel of experts to discuss globalization tonight. the president of the world trade center los angeles previously served as the los angeles secretary-general and as the director of international trade for the port of los angeles. kathryn stone is akatherine ston labor and employment law at the

school of law an and awarded a guggenheim fellowship and a fellowship for her work on the changing nature of employment and globalized world. jerry is an economist of ucla school of management where he focuses on asian economies and also works on the anderson school of economic forecasting of the california and u.s. economies. the founder and ceo of the trade group that helps governments of collateral development groups to shape the public policy with learning strategies in support of trade and obligation. starting with a question from jerry. president trump said last june globalization has made those very, very wealthy but it's left

millions of workers with nothing but poverty and heartache. what's your reaction to the president's remarks? >> when you think about globalization, you have to ask the question isn't it obvious shouldn't we just say yes and get to the reception here and it isn't so obvious the data is convoluted because there's a lot of things going on and one major event that is going on that keeps ubut keepsus from gettingf this is at the same time that we have had globalization over the last 15 because we didn't see this in the early kind of have to nafta but we have seen the rise of the robots and that has meant firms are substituting

capital for labor but also those are complements with information intensive workers. so we are seeing much more interest on that and that would occur even without any trade. so, when we look at the data do we think they are mixed together so you have to ask what is more important to get the solutions? >> more than 4.8 manufacturing jobs have disappeared. much of this is related to the agreement and i will pose a few. the global economy isn't working for the majority of people in

the country and the world this is an economic model developed by the elite to benefit the economic elite. i think it is certainly true particularly since about 2000. and i think that there's been a huge rise in productivity which is reflected with a big boost in automation and technology but there is also a big impact on trade and i think different economists have differed on what is responsible and how many jobs and i've seen estimates that talk about anywhere from 2 million to 3.5 million. the other being the result of technology but there's no doubt

played a big role so for that point of view there is also a big cost. they haven't been adequately compensated or supported by other economic programs that would make them winners as well >> i came away with the feeling that it is good for companies that could invest anywhere in the world.

it's not good for the workers in the united states but it might be good for the industries in sri lanka. do you think that globalization benefits the elite mainly disproportionately. of course there are textbooks results. the trade in theory is supposed to have gains for all people and that is what we see in th the sy so indeed there are some negatives that i would cite in

multiple studies they found that the competitive impact on the u.s. economy of imports coming in because of the shifting. we are at the bridge of an economy that is enabling people in every walk of life to provide services to companies all over the world. they are companies that are selling online 5% on the expert

on average to about two countries. when we look at retail sellers 90% of the export are the globalization and companies that we should encourage the workers to graduate into that and contribute to work. as often happens, the people that are hurt the most i want to discuss for a few minutes globalization in california. the port of la, silicon valley did a little exporting as well.

i think california has benefited greatly from the globalization and there are a lot of victims. if we look at how they participated and dominated the efforts we sense the monetary currency to happen and now 60 or 70 years later it becomes harder to swallow at that point. there are winners and losers from the very beginning. california because of our committee and the manufacturing base in china we benefited more than anybody else. 43% come to the port of la and

at the agricultural aspects from california we export a lot of those goods. i think you mentioned that they created. the main target of the decline in the factories attributed to china please note we don't have the free trade agreement with china. >> let's imagine that we are all taking a stroll and need several

shoppers, one buying a samsung machine or a pair of jeans made in mexico o were shoes made in brazil and we posed the question for the wal-mart shoppers, the globalization that only serves to delete. how would you respond to that question and what would you tell them? >> first of all, how did you get my shopping list? i think that answer is going to be yes. especially if they are living in dayton ohio but maybe more especially if they are in santa monica. yes, globalization hurts workers and helps to elite. it's easy to explain and it takes about a half an hour and at least most of them get it but

the issue is exposed to different places and the problem is with policy we can treat all of those that lost their jobs the same and that is the plaintiff was made earlier some industrial workers that are in their 30s are quite prepared to move into the new economy with appropriate guidance. some are like in the grapes of wrath and that is a different kind of policy. and i think our policies that are policies that use hammers but need scalpels. i want to make one other quick point and that is the manufacturing some abroad but here we are manufacturing about 150% of the of the remaining in

effect during the 1990s with only 60% of the workers. so there's a lot of things happening in this economy, and the trade is one of them. but it is only one of them. >> let's say we are taking a trip in main street ohio and we used to work in steel mills. economists say globalization is great. it's the overall economy come it gives consumers more choice what do you think they are going to tell you and what should be done quite >> they will say that it might be good for them but it's not for us in places like youngstown ohio or upstate new york where i lived for many years were outside of pittsburgh or detroit

if we'll see people devastated particularly people that have manufacturing jobs in the past, high paid jobs with good benefits often with unions. they tend to be low paid working as fast food establishments and working part-time and retail or home health aides. so what is happening is the high paid jobs have left and the low paid jobs have not just filled in the gaps but actually multiplied. there's been a huge shift to the service jobs a but the low-end service jobs have multiplied and are continuing to do so and to increase tremendously in the next ten years and manufacturing jobs are predicted to continue their decline. so this gets back to something about what should be done, but

it's nothing in the nature of the universe that says being a home health aid has to be a bad job it could be a good job with decent pay and steady hour hourd steady benefits. there could be a union and so the fact that people have different jobs in our economy is true those are jobs that are very low paid and it's hard for people to support themselves or pay their rent if they are only earning eight or $10 an hour 24 hours a week but there's nothing that says that couldn't change and one thing with the changing some of the walls for example to make it easier for the workers to unionize so they would have more bargaining power. we might also think about those kinds of retraining or various other kinds of social benefits that make it possible for people to reenter the workforce and get some bargaining power so when they get new jobs, the jobs are

better than those they lost rather than it being a steady decline. >> like many professional economists, you say that it helps increase efficiency, helps lift up economic growth worldwide and gives consumers more choice. why then does it get such a bad rap? president trump, bernie sanders and so many others attacking globalization a of it is considered a general good? >> i think that it is an easy target first of all. very much what jerry said, it is a march of being the changing technology. defectives of china are no longer listed as run by the workers. there are three d. printers there as well so this is a global phenomena i phenomenon ir

adjustment worldwide and graduating to a new economy where i will give you a kind of juxtaposition that tells the story. some of you may remember around the time of the election, there was a story about two ladies in a factory in indianapolis and this was a time when they were still talking about moving to mexico to manufacture and they said if trump doesn't deliver on those we will go a different way during the election. 150 miles down the road there is a guy named travis who started his own business in 2004, retail for motorcycle products and a couple years later he started to sell online and today he started the business with $7,000 today he exports 130 countries and 40% of the sales come from exports and of these storie these storie

potential from india and from all around the planet these are the people writing on globalization. the bridge of the historic period where for the first time it is possible to have the town square at the global level essentially where they come together and transact. we are right now at this phase to do this but it takes the cooperation of all of this to a line. >> so germany is in theory more than the united states because it is a higher percentage of the gdp that goes to trade, imports and exports and it doesn't have a bette better rap in germany tt does in the united states. so i ask you why this globalization gets such a bad

rap here and i think one reason is that we do not as a nation do enough for the losers in globalization. let me ask why do you think, what about the united states prevents us from doing enough to help the losers? >> going back to david and the theory of competitive advantages which is the 200th anniversary of the publication of that the interview shows if you have countries even with different resources and levels of wealth they are still benefited by trade but it doesn't say anything about whether different groups and countries are benefited by trade so all the benefits can go to the top or they can be spared in an egalitarian way. it's each nation as a blackbox anblack boxand so i think the qf whether who benefits from trade

is a question of whether there are distribution mechanisms within a nation to not just compensate losers that restructure the way the labor markets work in ways that make it possible for everybody to flourish and if so i think the problem in the united states as we've gone the opposite direction it made it harder to form the right to work laws enacted that make it hard to unionize. we have attacks on public sector unions endeavor since ronald reagan federal policy so it is not a surprise that the labor share of gdp has fallen and the rates have fallen into you get these workers that have lost in the global marketplace who are not getting any resources or don't have the resources themselves to be empowered to protect themselves.

>> i want to ask you that and bring an aspect of pop culture into this. i was in germany going to the trade show and to talk about the industry for points you're looking at the next generation. the entrepreneurs are innovative but overall it is america's number one, number one in obesity, there i there's a numbf issues we have that we are proud of our paths in this story earlier about the two ladies that want trump to bring back their old job into this older gentleman and down the street is looking towards the future. the solution to what you are saying as well especially with the auto manufacturing. we already know that you can

blame mexico for a lot of this. a lot of the components are going directly to mexico and about 60% of their severe integrating in this approach. so that is what he do. i think that cultural aspect has attributed to it but if we get the next generation and even retraining for workers t of worw about e-commerce and that 95% of the consumers of the purchasing power is outside of the united states, america is not going to be number one if we continue to think we are number one. so changing that view will get us to the stuff to do something about it. if we go back and think america was great let's go back there again i'm afraid we might look to far in the past and other countries will take off without

us. >> a couple of comments related to the discussion. there is an economic theory. it's the theory of international trade. the unfortunate thing is that says there was increasing inequality in the u.s. and decreasing inequality in places like china but the fact is there's this increasing inequality elsewhere and that's why i say the number of things going on that are kind of important and the second comment is there is no case in the economic history of the world where protectionism has improved the life of the country in fact we take argentina in 1911 with the ninth richest country in the world and it hasn't moved much since then and that is for a

number of reasons but protectionism certainly was one of them and then to your earlier question, i think that it is easy for politicians to go and say somebody took your job and it's hard for them to say the world has moved on your job is not coming back and here are the kind of things we are going to do to help you move into the economy. i would sub at the first one is an easier way to get votes. >> if you have a question on culture and globalization, we hear a lot jobs have been lost globalization, but here in los angeles, looking at hollywood, it's helped create a lot of jobs. can you discuss that? >> when we talk about the globalization we think about exports and imports and we need

to think more about the project investment. you have seen especially after the recession and increase in this investment coming from asia and china and by the way it's repeated itself 30 or 40 years ago from the uk and a number of places but let's focus on china for a second, real estate life, we've seen the downtown boom like ways we haven't seen a long time and a lot of it has t had o with the investment. >> did that only helped the kiwis? >> again, they are the investors that will get a lot of the return and obviously going to benefit greatly however there will be workers, hotel workers and by the way we are creating new hotels and new residential residence iresidents into theses will actually support the

convention center and now we are able to attract big conventions we were not able to attract before becaus because if you lot san francisco and las vegas, they were able to attract even san diego comic con and others within a two-mile radius of the staples center and convention center so now you are talking about the investment having this entire effect of creating more jobs in various sectors coming to it it's so yes, i think that again they will benefit more. however, the common people are as well not to the same extent that don't get me wrong it is not just that everybody is going to win. i think in globalization with competition someone will lose it is just basically what do we do with those people that are not going to be winning.

>> construction is one of them are rapidly growinthemore rapidf employment in california the last couple of years. those are good middle-class jobs, so it is not only the elite that have been supported by this construction in downtown la. >> it does grow but the percentage of construction declines as to the wages, so there has been a drop-off in the construction wages nationwide overtime and it is no longer quite the path to success that it used to be for high school graduates. the other jobs that come in unfortunately like the hotel director or low-paying jobs and so the problem isn't that there are not jobs. the bigger problem is they don't give the kind of stability and life that jobs used to and it's not just this. i would never advocate these

adoption of policies because that is a path to poverty for a nation but i do think what we need to focus on the distribution measures that cracked or somehow compensate for the effect and i think one is not just from trade with automation and also just managerial theories have changed so the firms no longer necessarily want a stable long-term employees, they want flexibility, they want to be agile to be able to change the skill mix because they had global competition and changing technologies all these things translate into human resource practices between having a stable long-term jobs or whole e lifetime is may be the norm 30 years ago is not available anymore and we need a social policies then that fill in the gaps that somehow deal with people as they make transitions in their lives. >> i'm sorry i forgot to answer your question.

>> as an example, there is a company that invested $4.5 billion so that is a big investment and at this obviously with this infusion of capital allows us to do more films so that is going to create some jobs there. the second part is that it allows us to start partnering with th a presence in china andy the way they are already starting a theater and now we can potentially start entering the chinese market is a great consumer pays for the movies. >> so silicon valley exporting all sorts of services around the world, what does that mean for the california economy and those that only benefit the shareholders of apple and facebook and google are the none nominee alito so to speak? >> we tend to have a trade

surplus of services and a deficit of goods and that's because we deal more in cognitive work and information and california disproportionately. does it only benefit the elite, it benefits the well educated and that information skill class and there again, that doesn't benefit the industrial workers in the midwest who've lost their jobs due to a whole host of things including automation and a changing economy changing pace so you have that group of workers that are then hurt by this major transformation from the economy and we seen this before a in economic history mar transformations.

they are painfully and sometimes countries don't survive them and sometimes they do. >> you haven't mentioned a word about one of the major industries of agriculture that uses globalists labors from countries south of the border. can someone discuss if people are attacking it unfairly? the port of oakland is the export port and that is agricultural goods from california's central valley so there is this issue about the farmworkers who engaged in

harvesting. about half of them are undocumented. what we are going to see as higher food prices. we have one similar experience in 1941 and 1942.

those that are picking vegetables and fruits in california. they went on victory vacations which meant they went to pick strawberries and lettuce and so on. they cut by 28%. he wants to renegotiate nafta. they take advantage of us and

trade mexico. am i imagining this and paranoid but it is happening and if they try to form a fortress would that be good for america or bad. these things were done so what would happen if they were

integrated globally. its integrated into these will hit soon enough. there are perceptions for whatever actions they take as the result of us and perhaps china and others will integrate with the training partners.

>> if you don't have agreements for trade all you have is a sort of unilateral force. it seems to me the problem is to have trade agreements but there are trade agreements that we have that haven't been productive of the labor conditions either here or in the developing world. so for example, the wto has installed labor standards into its trade requirements and the international labor organization has refused to also take its labor standards and make them enforceable in terms of trade sanctions so there has not been

a single case that has gone to completion into those that can be challenged in the narrow set of circumstances to begin with. and so, the process of the trade agreements that we have come have protected the capital, intellectual property, they work on protecting investments and there's a lot more out there trying to do work on investment treaties that they've done very little. on the whole, it hasn't been built with a view towards protecting labor at the same time. that is what we ought to be focusing on, not getting rid of the trade agreements.

>> what happens in between for the manufacturing to come back to the united state united state supplies and who are you going to buy it from, where will you get your natural resources, so the idea that we can manufactu manufacture, of course we can't and it's juscanit's just going t the cost. >> you will be getting a manufacturing job, but who is going to pay you. those are the questions i would love to hear the administration laid out in the plan. your question reminded me of a

bumper sticker that went something like this. just because i'm paranoid doesn't mean no one is after me. [laughter] >> if we were to take this it would crash the auto industry because it has been stated it is so integrated in the mexican auto industry that it's not going to -- eventually we will start building cars ourselves but it's a little harder to drive without a motor and it's a little harder to use an iphone so we have a number of industries. we have the market flavor capital such that i think we would see a change in governme

government. >> someone that has written a lot about labor over the years. the workers to promote the countries with bangladesh, china and they are treated but paid very little in these disasters. it is the main menu to trigger of the iphone's in the world but has been known for these conditions. what should be done about this? >> i want to talk about the

cultural aspect. what if i told you right here in los angeles just 20 years ago there is an organization called the legal center. the slave labor is happening right here. i'm not justifying that, but it's also happening here. it isn't happening neither here nor there. it basically forces the countries that are trying to adopt a certain labor standard including slave labor. so in order to join, they have

to join the constitution to allow the workers that is the type of policy that we should encourage. it's not just looking at the elite but also to protect the most vulnerable population around the world. the fact that we have pulled out of it is probably going to collapse now so that may not survive. but the idea was to take the labor rights in standards in the organizations that have joined

in and there is no reason they cannot be placed in the trade agreements that it might mean everyone should protect the rights to the organize unions or protect against child labor and forced labor so it is to have the monitoring and enforcement mechanisms and there is no reason that they could build this in as part of the architecture of the global trading order and that's what i think we need to be moving towards. >> i want to invite the two of you to conclude by saying what do you think should be done or could be done to improve globalization and help to make it less painful for not just americans but people around the world as well who are hurt by

globalization. >> whose companies have been going up the last 15 years and who have not is pretty clear where he would find some. the individuals are circled beneath a different so you have to kind of come down to the micro level on that so that is one aspect of the question.

if we think it's bad to put lead in the water, maybe we did but they don't anymore, we put lead in the water because it is bad for our children. he would thinwe would think theg about chinese children in bangladesh children. from the comparative advantage by not incorporating the cost cover the full cost of production. so we are not going to buy cheap clothes on the backs of these children so those are the kind of agreements that would fix some of these inequities that exist in globalization. so we need to go through the

transformation to get the resources across the countries. >> would you like to take questions from the audience? >> the jobs have been taken over by trade or whatever. or do we want an america where there goes that came out of college, started these online businesses and our online sellers. do you want the latter where the world is moving and everybody on the planet is providing services were sending goods online the have to adjust our policies to that and i would start with education. travis came out of college with a certain amount of skills.

they use their engineering and all that we have here is almost unrivaled in the world. all of this we have ample supp supply. how do we become global exporters. anybody from anywhere can become an exporter. you can become an app designer. you can be anywhere in the wor world. now do we want to encourage those like that that want to

protect their economy. >> taking questions from the audience i can't see anyone or anything. >> please say your first and last name and we would greatly appreciate it as the session is being recorded and will be published on the website. ..

>> >> let's start with education. the critical issue for the 21st century is workforce development and education and the way that technology has changed our world and will change our world will

longer be the case when i was growing up in the finish school and graduated from and then just david. but not everybody stayed at university. and education will be a lifelong poor or a global role. >> so as in the quality is increased people seem reluctant to increase public education to make that picture work.

>> i would agree with that to it is clearly given the wrong direction as to make this is the policy we need to address to have that egalitarian globalization then we need to make education available point not just something the lead ski and pay for our june squeeze out we should go the opposite way. >> also for the practical person purpose now the people come here for the talent and there is the education gap. but you should also be able to help. those going to santa monica so it is a mix and political system that the college level in it hasted be a

comprehensive to have a trained individual on to have that demand for workers >> here in california legislators understand it it, the government understands it funding is difficult but least they understand the problem and that direction it should go. or she the supreme court to minimally fund k. 312 with think we're fortunate in california that u.s. has adopted our same view of importance of education spirit'' i want to add is

the issue and with last you your whole career. but you need to and somebody has to pay for them. and that is not just the time that you are there. we in tweaking it to make sure it is some type of cockeyed -- of cause for the persistent. >> so rashly that is.

but half of those are at the united states. but now the mw one it is not perfect but they have attempted to address but should the trade policy be addressing everything? should a financial possible

spending but to follow up in this and futuristic but closer than we realize. but then knit but those the create a pollution but to

the spirit we have more commerce said parcells growing belief percent every year. with the little package will ashley package so you have the countervailing pressure but there are interesting things happening. >> thank you very much. my question but if you think

of like apple orchard park bucks and that is one of the reasons debt could will emission has become but then to have more merits but did

indonesian dave byrne point the source to get the call real. is said their working among the u.s. takes fifth but to be connected speak complacent. but we can know about it and we should. i paid readjusts covering policies between the up

private and of be a i have benefited from the public education system and from the fact that policies -- policies have measuring class to flock but then they need to contribute willingly .

but we have to trump with unified system for communication but it i am not mentioning names. [laughter] but then to attack in the same way. so that does matter because texas pads as much a rare more open and tax system. is a complex issue and then

to provide teachers are fault on -- but several services by the way california had marchand but creating tax policy is difficult. but what the european union did successfully but if you are your certain of their fair share texas but now we have someone in california with recession than a 10.

>> we don't know about your feedback laugh laugh. >> my question is regarding treat -- trade agreements for from but snowden now with that but there is a

concern about poverty. the question is what is the appropriate lovelock of decisionmaking? those that of multilateral level with the tax policy lot of fans. >> that doesn't mean every single position is made so. >> do you get to raise if people feel they have lost control. sometimes that is exaggerated in people's mind. but now i have forgotten the rest of the question laugh

laugh civic is any disadvantage floor waiting? >> bilateral agreements are quite limited and narrow it is coper you could carve out a precise term in makes a much more of to monitor them if you are in the united states but blin you are working multilateral the if you want to come up with have the regime with those biggest issues in but they

stole from my car. and then but that vast empire, let me take the first dabber now is to make the western part of sarajevo is very rich like northern. what we are sea.

but with jeopardy sent through - - they used to be a area of 500 people. [laughter] cement now can but when you compare but there is a lot

of this happening in los angeles. the with the expert because of the entertainment industry has a natural alliance to enable that to push that out to the marketplace.

from the national market's. >> to the point that lassie angeles has the largest non-durable goods sector in the country? and they tend to be low-skilled that is adversely affected by globalization that is what gives us the impression of something that has been going on particularly since the downturn of 2008. >> we're actually seeing more of that.

and then with all of that investment that integration to have video games. this is all growing over here. but to the one last point because it is hard for me because we are adopting the language is so k. to abstain little if you are a loser then you are a nobody. it's hard to swallow. >> dialer lot listing to

these for. [applause] also thanks for hosting us and all the the force spending time with us tonight stick around for the reception down the hall where we can continue this conversation. [applause]