former nato supreme allied commander talked about the strategic importance of the worlds oceans throughout history. he spoke about his book at books and books in coral gables florida. >> an honor graduate for the u.s. naval academy, a master's degree and a doctorate in international law and diplomacy. [inaudible] even his wife is an author.

[inaudible] the dean of the fletcher school of law and the university infleh boston. the very same place that he got his doctorate. he has been given 15 civilian awards from around the world and within the last 11 months, he has been considered for a vice presidential pick on one political party and as secretary of state by another political party. [laughter] >> i find that more impressive. people listened very carefully and i'm glad to see so many

people here tonight. all this experience has given him deep insights about the global state of affairs we face today. we are very fortunate to have him here tonight with his newest book seapower which i cannot wait to read it. ladies and gentlemen. [applause] >> thank you. normally, when people hear that introduction -- thank you, that was very kind.at thank you for having me here. normally when people hear that introduction, they've wonction h overwhelming reaction when they made me a person which is i thought he would be taller than you appear to be. [laughter] we are going to take a couple

minutes to talk about the oceans of the world today. and so often as we look at a map of the world, we tend to think of the land. it's logical yet 70%, 7% of this planet are the oceans. and by the way, 70% of your body is composed of water and here's another one. 70% of the oxygen that you believe comes from photosynthesis in the oceans. of those that know a thing or two about naval mastery save the oceans are one. they connect everywhere. so tonight as we talk about the oceans, i invite you to talkwe about 70% that we inhabit here 0 today. i'm going to take 20 minutes and walk through the oceans of the world, and i'm going to try to

tie it together with the challenges we face and then what we ought to do about it. so, let's start with the pacific ocean this is a 1589 short ofh the pacific. bottom right you see the yolynesians who voyaged 5,000 miles 10,000 years ago to inhabit the pacific.is as i got ready to get underwaybe in my 500-foot and 10,000-ton destroyer i said to my 300 man and woman crew this is dangerous. we ought to really be on our toes. can you imagine sailing 5,000 miles? the polynesians did that. this is an agency. it's also the largest of the oceans. the pacific you don't have to remember these numbers, but the

pacific is 170 million square kilometers it is enormous and it is an agency and i that has been singled.ip. it's those that christopher columbus sailed to america 60 feet long. 1492, right? that behemoth next to it was from the same time. government 1450, was the flagship of the chinese admiral.

420 feet long and 500 mariners. it is as an agency and what they sailed for centuries. in the american mind when we think about the pacific what we think about typically, world wai ii. we think that the campaign to retake the pacific. today we have 12 aircraft carriers. we dominated the pacific.

it is an ancient civilization in china these are chinese ballistic missile nuclear powered submarines highly capable i put them here as an example of the rise of the chinese fleet that we have seen over the past decade with two aircraft carriers and again we have 12 and they are on a constant increase in the maritime capability and it's not just ships. on the left, tokyo, this is the pacific century building among the largest in tokyo, the largest commercial centers built and owned by china. on the right you see a chinese warship pulling in to pearl

harbor. that's what we regard as theth claim to the south china sea. it's the territorial right as the result as all of those voyages in that as a result, they owned that waters facing alwater space andall of the hyds under it. 80% of theha pacific trade passs through the south china sea. to reinforce the claim, china is building artificial islands andd reefs, many of them. thousands of acres and they are militarizing them.

it reinforces their claims under international law. fortunately, we have allies in this region. we have japan, which is increasing its military spending. and it's more inclined to operate alongside a bus. we have south korea. our allies are the heart of the maritime strategy in this region and it's good that we have been because we have an enormous tactical problem. the tactical problem is right here, it's north korea. he is well named because he isas unpredictable, unstable, unstab untested.

he's got a really bad haircut. [laughter] and she's building ballistic missiles that can range great distances. over time, his ambition is to create nuclear weapons, marriott and the missile in flight and over the pacific. so, we have a significant challenge here, and a bat and a sense is a good thing because im provides a confluence of interesinterests between the und states and china and the sensfic. .. provides a con fliewns of interest between the united states and china in the pacific. let's turn to the atlantic as we skip around oceans and this is how the chapter is structured a history of the ocean.

the geoplainings what it is like to sail in that ocean as a mariner. the atlantic is the ultimate tran are sit zone in hurst in so many ways. and it begins with mariner who is come from spain and portugal and prince henry bottom right everyone would recognize >> >> the determination to resupply the europeans in those two words with those two small hinges of the convoy if we did not control the of the antic we would

not have succeeded in either of those wars.se convo that is the american view of the atlantic today we are challenged by vladimir putin by the insurgents of the russian navy but the problem vif is we keep looking at that strategic terrain on the map that is not there. it is the mind of vladimir putin to rebuild the of the russian navy highly capable of the next three years they'll add 100 ships to the fleet we will be challenged on our coast in the greenland and iceland united kingdom we will see a resurgent russia as we see a resurgent china in the10

pacific now looking at the indian ocean with 160 million square kilometers in the atlantic is 100 and indian ocean is that tad smaller you could take the entire land mass to begin as spice routes with the to geopolitical actors to have the cold war manifesting and off the coast of yemen to see the interplay of iran supporting

saudi arabia called states with the government of yemen sut so a great deal of the y action is playing out in the maritime theater we should consider read the number one challenge of the indian ocean. as every and sees itself as the imperial power. they created the persian empire. and with a flag afire rand today. we'll get the persian empire. all of this brings confrontation with the i ran

nation and the bottom left led by saudi arabia the closest ally is israel in the middle of this the united states so maritimeme activity not only to the south china sea near the atlantic balls of the persian arabia and gulf and the waters of the indian ocean. what else? the mediterranean, people have gone on a cruise? quite a few. it is a wonderful place. the mediterranean sea of all e the world's oceans has seen the most combat anwr. if i could snap my figures to bring back to life of all of the votes that went to the bottom and miraculously bring them back you recover

the surface with the sailors.r if i this is the battle of one of the epic maritime battles inin history where a christian coalition led by that hon period empire was at a small place in the center of the mediterranean that is the place where war began to data challenges this is the brutal dictator of coastline on the eastern mediterraneanar e and this is what it looks like confrontation between the united states and russian t and the other nations of the region also the hydrocarbonabouh

and they will compete for that. so that leads to waves of refugees in take a look at so try to cross those water. with huge humanitarian challenges so little closer to home one florida i am a florida native just bored west of palm beach the most expensive side of town. [laughter] the caribbean is rich in tradition and history today from a u.s. perspective

looking at the panama canal is well run by the panamanians. side of panera there are a maritime challenges gains are goingf wate to see and natural disasters with refugee problems. so on narcotics can assure you we're hopeful photographal w the high tech u.s. vesseln thema but the bad news it is on top in the photograph.t to lef that was built in the jungle of columbia there was a navy destroyer it had 10 tons of

cocaine the street value in miami $150 million so parking the issue of people should use drugs are not is a personal choice but i do worry about the money it costs the cartel $5,000,000.150 million out those are those fragile democracies creating corruption driven by the mayor and in the united states. sold luckily we have partners to focus on this and have to work on the supply side and the demand side here in the united states to address the challenges so on the left is

the u.s.s. vessel powered itself into a the high north in mid 19th century in a public-private expedition it shows us even late 19th century i will tell you as a fact of the i.c.e. is melting. we have a big debate on the science of global warming i'm here is a meritor the i.c.e. is melting. and the result that is the lead of communication will open, hydrocarbons are available with a significant competition in the high north we have a chancect unfortunately turned thisrt into a real cold war pun intended overtime with

russia on one side and five nato nations on the other side. because of the i.c.e.of melting will create a real geopolitical challenge. the arctic council let's hope they can find a way to use diplomacy to avoid further conflict in the high north. does anybody know how many icebreakers' we have? one. denmark has six. russia has dozens. china has 12.astly ha we need to step up hour gave if we operate in the high north. lastly, turning to the zero

lossy, the ocean is the largest crime scene in thehe world.fishing dumping, acidification.and the it was under regulated. down 60% and the oceans are warming we could have a debate but environmentally the long-term challenge because oxygen comes from the ocean. al gore told us many times the oceans are the ones of the world.

to say egypt is on a tentative '08 what do you think? would those opportunities to create better security to harness the ocean responsibly? with his 19th century ad row who wrote the naval strategy year the united states 110 years ago what would he say today? what is the first thing we should do? the number one thing we should do is listen more.sten mor this gentleman is actually from 80 years ago missing

from or incoming aircraft the we should listen to the oceans to study them and their allies and partners and friends and to our opponents to find ways to avoid conflict what else? this is the naval war college the to stop and listen to learn and converse in a responsible way. what else? and that upper left from the aegis and

creeks - - ancient greeks then is the best portrait frer made. and from the founding fathers to angelou ever go. -- angelou merkle. so for those future generations i am one of the iconic bookstores items so proud to be here. we could read magazines like the economist the centrist magazine with no byline.

where do i turn? i spent four years the live president steve the intelligence if you read the economist cover to cover you get 80 +% you can read, biographies look at the cool seated a heartbreaking story but also about oceans. baffin's is the seapower how did that turn out? here's the picture of the aircraft carrier we need a strong and capable maybe of lead today

is 275 ships. under reagan we have almost 600 world were to we had thousands now we donate thousands we don't need 600 but we need more than 275 about 325-4350 ships. that is serious analysis. holiday get there? that we need a capable fleet.eed a it is also your coast guard and marine corps with allies and friends. these are pirates captured

these are french marines who have landed in the italian military helicopter.rine core, with the aircraft overhead. it is a coalition. we don't want to be the world's police. and then to take on challenges together. we need allies and friends we will realize that only on our ships but japan we need the united nations but the u.n. is the backbone of international law to create not regime of the ocean.

we need more of this. with that confederate command we philby's hospital ships with doctors and nurses with the dutch and french military doctors it was the ultimate team sport but with many aircraft carriers those most of women - - important appointments were made. with public-private cooperation receiving fuel after being stolen from the

pirates not only geopolitics or trade and the economy but i tried to communicate what it is like to sail into the arctic what does it feel like? it is choppy and challenging i spent 11 years of my life and spent 16 years day for day of the ocean sometimes things go wrong. more often this is the notion that i know.

the room or the office with the view. i tried to pour that experience into the bookit's thu this is a sailor's book. thank you. [applause] any questions you would like to ask that all?. >>. >> i should put it in new zealand i also did not put the philippines or thailand

but they did so because those are the three largest maritime you are correctly t pointing out new zealand and thailand also have a very close relationship with sweet -- singapore. >> i would like to ask as the commander with the growing unrest in venezuela and in terms of refugees?. >> i think you have hit the dark end of the spectrum

think you -- you've hit the really dark end of the spectrum would be a complete collapse of order in the nation which conceivably could lead to waves of refugee. it is more likely that they would move across the border into columbia than they would take to sea but some number probably qowld take to sea. i don't think it's a maritime problem per se. but i think it's an a enormous potential humanitarian crisis. already within venezuela, to we have any here tonight normally we would in a miami audience i'm shocked we don't o. it is a -- becoming difficult with real violence on the streets. let us hope that they dot right thing which is not to create a new kind of -- lump parliament and jam a new constitution through. let us hope had that he allows current rule of law to follow what the united states ought to

do is support the efforts of the o.a.s. organization of american states to put pressure on -- to do the right thing and follow the legality within the venezuelan constitution we should feel -- very positive that we're seeing both columbia and brazil qhor helping with that and putting immediate pressure on. in terms of hydrocar been and u.s. economy not significant at this point. of the united states has become a exporter of hydrocarbons, by don't have time for long discussion about energy parts humanitarian crisis the united states should not take froct line of this to alaw to create a target in the united states. use ally not to be the world policeman but others take the lead. it's a huge, huge challenge in this hemisphere. yes, ma'am and then up here. >> so my question with the noters and glacier melting and the trade that could happen in

the north is -- if there's no longer polar icecap and russia long stapgding desire for warm water port so can you give us sort of a 20-year outlook on that? >> i can. assuming that global warming helicopterrings we're going to see within 20 years we'll see the -- sea lane of chiewngs, the shipping lanes, open all year round. that means we have to create systems of buoys to mark them. we have to provide search and a rescue. we have to ensure that mariners can operate safely and crew tankers l and g tankers so we have to create a regime to do that. we need to cooperative relationship with russia. the problem is, we have an extreme geopolitical

confrontation with russia over o syria, where they support assad over invasion of ukraine and intrusion. so how do we get out of this this? my belief is we use the arctic counsel which i highlighted if for you and we try to take a very pragmatic approach to say we must confront where it was on crucial issue i mentioned but let's find disoafn cooperation with russia federation. i think the arctic could be one of those zones. so i'm cautiously optimistic that we'll be able to preserve this extremely fragile environment one which has never known had war, and over o time find a cooperative relationship with russia. there because it is in their interest as well with as ours. yes, sir. has to do with china you mentioned confrontation with china and south china sea, which i've heard from other areas, and seems to me that britain had a similar issue with the united states around the turn of the

vie with the caribbean and united states we were going to grab it and britain had a choice to confront the united states or o they could -- let united states take control of the caribbean with with desperate threats, germany navy, empire and such seems to me looking at the south china sea china has a reason to believe this is their sea. do they really pose such a threat to us that we cannot give them more room to maneuver in south china sea and avoid the confrontation? and seem there that control of that area like most of the world exceeds our control in caribbean. >> first of all i would say that mexico, cuba, jamaica, trinidad,

et cetera in no way control the caribbean. what china is attempting to do to follow your analogy would be to actually take territorial control to make that a territorial sea. so i think the analogy breaks down a bit because of the expansioniveness of the chinese desire here. i think it's fair to say and i would agree with you that it is reasonable for us to e believe that china ought to have significant influence in asia. significant influence in asia. that makes sense. but we should not exceed to simply territorial control over an enormous body of water that would be an enormously bad precedent. i think that historic analogy that's actually more apt that -- you kind of pulled at was the confrontation between great britain and germany about 100 years ago. here you have an established power facing a rising power. this is sometimes called the tram -- where in an established power is challenged by a rising power. my friend graham allison professor at harvard has done extensive historical analysis over the 16 times in the last several thousand years that that situation has entailed in 12 of those situations the two nations go to war. in four of them, they do not. what we need to do is understand

china. listen to them. exceed where we can, cooperate where we can, but confront where they really push beyond borders of what makes sense if we do that job your point i think we can avoid this trap and avoid open confrontation. others -- yeah how about this young man way over here. j hello. okay as an admirable what's primary difference you have between sea attack versus a land battle. >> okay great question. so the ocean, the biggest thing, of course, is terrain. the ocean here's the news flash the oceans are flat. there's no terrain borders between them you know how fast you can cross them, you have many more known elements in a

sea battle on the surface. on land you have enormous obstacles you have to get over. the challenge is below the sea in today's world. i sometimes envy have admirals like lord nelson that -- who could see all of the challenge in front of him. and admirable today has to worry about this undersea battle that's very three dimensional. so i would say in really simple terms, in admirable has to deal with the surface of the oceans but his challenge is what's whatting underneath and, of course, there's an air battle overhead but that's the same in both components. so for the admirable he has an advantage with the flatness of the sea but a danger from what is under it. the general has many more challenges in terms of obstacles in a physical zone. but he or she can map those and

doesn't have to deal with that hidden dimension under the quarter so two different kinds of battle mind setses are necessary between admirable and jns what's over here and get someone on this side of the room. >> how is the -- [inaudible conversations] columbus because i like the 1500s -- of those mariners. >> i think the question is how do you describe the skills of the mariners in the 15, 16th century and how are they different than need and expand the question so today being a mariner is a lot easier let's face it you have satellites overhead. that pin point your position. you have distant surveillance systems both undersea and in the

air you have many more tools. mariners that i showed you had to rely on wind and current on pilots orders that said you know the last time i took this voyage the prevailing winds were from the northeast that means that i was getting to the -- it's very intuitive sailing early mariner developed navigation as they went with along. navigational systems including the use of -- (music) (music) there we go. including, including eventually longitude which really changed navigation but that is before so people at christopher columbus sailed by what is called direct reckoning when they take their ship, they take a log to see how

far they have gone in a given hour, day they plot it on a chart an they estimate how much the current and wind have pushed them off. it was a very intuitive it's a difference i would say between an idea of the scale of the ships he could take the empire state building that is how long an aircraft carrier is it is 100,000 times, its flights tagta is 8 acres.take the e it is defended by cruisers, destroyers, submarines, surveillance systems. they are well protected.on they could potentially be hit by cruise missiles and a sub marine

could slip underneath so here's the bottom line. we should rely on the carriers d but we shouldn't make thems we v indispensable. to protect them and distribute that firepower we need a distribute to the fleet. we don't want to overreliance on the carriers and i will close by saying our opponents focus constantly on the carriers. how about back over here. what unintended consequences if any would have occurred at the end of the cold war in theyi united states gradually to make it a local dispute between the north and south.

if we had a local dispute it viethabe better. it would be subject to china and would be a chinese state essentially. it was invaded and if we had given up at that point and left they would have dominated and it would have been a hardline communist state.

there is a single point of light to the south is a fully illuminated the world. if we hadn't stayed, the bottom half would be eliminated asreel well. i would love to sign some books for you. thank you very much. [applause]