can read the interviews and include sessions with people like tony lake, his time is national security advisor in the entire interview you can find on our website. >> here's russell riley's curated the as some of those. [applause] good evening and welcome. i'm curious how many of you are here for the first time? >> welcome. were glad to hear. we have your e-mail address we are in touch once or twice a week. sometimes we have new events to announce.

we will hope you stay with us. thank you to the wonderful partners of ours who host the event. a special welcome to you. want to run through a few upcoming events in the we'll get into the program. this sunday we have a new voices series. will have a first time -- i will talk about the floating world set in katrina time. that takes place at the santa monica library and is free. monday night, chris matthews comes to the stage. he has a new book out, bobby

kennedy. he will be interviewed by frank buckley, a morning posting katie tla. and then tim o'reilly's with us. he has a book out titled wtf. the we have matthew weiner's thursday. and also conductor john -- dan rather, tom maine was with us last week, tina brown is with us next friday, jennifer lewis and daniel ellsberg. tonight, it's an honor to host scott adams. he's a cartoonist from the comic strip gilbert. he's the author of several best sellers.

as cofounder of --.com. he worked as a technology for major bank and then a phone company and then started the column. interviewing him is karen, she's been our stage several times who helped organizations tell better stories. a longtime host favorite show of mine called preformed. now, he hosts a podcast at harvard. scott adams new book is, when bigley. persuasion in a world where facts don't matter. a year ago today election outcome was predicted by many people differently, but not scott adams. he has a lot to share about the

in the whole world. i invite him and terrence to the stage. the chapter about 45 minutes and then you can ask questions. [applause] [applause] >> hello. i want to start by saying that on november 11, 3 days after the election i wrote of trump and his voters he spoke directly to people wanted to be seen and heard. the specs were wrong but his story was right. i imagine the trump supporter,

now major political candidate talking to manny's not just a nerdy politician. he understands me, he respects me and cares about me. you want to base your whole campaign on running him down telling he's not good enough to be president, whereby heard that before? several minutes into the first debate with he'll return to my wife and said, we are in trouble. he's a narrative machine. from that night forward i knew that trump selection was a serious possibility. scott adams so much more than i did. he calls trump the most persuasive human being he's ever observed and he predicted trumps when with 98% certain after other said he had a 2% chance.

his latest book, when bigley had him offers a look at the persuasion strategies and goes be politics to look at persuasion strategies that will look for you anywhere. i like listeners to get a feel for the people not just the book. so tell us how you see your path which is not a normal one. >> the path to cartoon? well you're working in corporations and then going to cartooning others submitted so

some. >> all give you the password version. at the age of six i saw my first peanuts cartoon book i couldn't read yet, and i thought finally a reason to link to read. about then i decided to become a famous cartoonist. i saw other jobs, farmer and mailman and they don't look nearly as good as that. around the age of 11 he become rational. and you say wait there's 5 million people in only one charles scholz, i don't like my odds. put that on hold i work for a big bank and the phone company and when my career stalled at both of those places the real

reason it stalled, at the bank my boss come in one day and there is an opening for promotion and i was the obvious person for is an up and comer working on my mba. as set out how chilly this, the company is getting a lot of heat because we have no diversity and senior management. until further notice, we cannot promote you because your white male. and i said how long will that last? well how long did it take us to get to this point? it's not going to be fast. so start looking for new job thinking not couldn't let that slow me down. i went to the phone company work there, was recognized as an up and, one day my boss called me to his office and said the local newspapers over us and discovered we have no diversity and senior management. we cannot promote you. i don't know when that will change. i know you think that was a bad day for me. but you're wrong. the day find out that your

effort and your reward are not related, it really frees up your schedule. suddenly i had time to work on side jobs i thought well let's see if i can have my comments published somewhere i asked for some advice from a cartoonist and he sent me advice and said here's some tips where dissent comics. i sense a mountain they were rejected and i gave up. a year later i get a letter from the same cartoonist and he said he's cleaning his office came across my letter and he was just writing to make sure that i hadn't given up. it was the only point of the letter. sorry, materials up and

submitted to newspapers all over the world. >> was covered originally multipanel? >> when i sent it to magazines a single panel that. a lot of cartoonist before panels is also a trained economist. i thought that's one third harder. the fast-forward to work for the phone company and to it took often those 2015 in my tv like everyone else i'm seeing this orange ball of fury has everybody gathering. i started to notice because i'm a trained hypnotist.

>> were you a hypnotist? junior high, later? >> early 20s. i was influenced by my mother who is hypnotize to give birth to my younger sister. my mother reported she was awake and aware but used no painkillers. and had a painless delivery. i thought what is the superpower? the turns out to be one of five people could have that effect, most people can't. i thought i have to learn what this is an added. >> so being a trained him a test, people might not make the connection with how that leads

to your interpretations the way you saw donald trump. so top of hypnosis i studied persuasion from listening, design and writing. the gilbert comic is designed with persuasion mechanics. when i saw trump i didn't know that much about them. i quickly noticed he was using what i call weapons grade persuasion. the type of thing that essentially he was bringing a flamethrower to a stick fight. like his hands were like this but there's nothing enough. because if you don't study it you don't notice it. it looks random and crazy and you say this guy could never get elected and i'm looking at a saying, oh my god, that's

perfect. it was so consistent. my analysis was on the narrative story because that's what i look for. i'm sure so how do you write gilbert? >> is changed over the years. i've used to do one a day and then take it down to the post office which worked until the post office figured out where i was. which was a common problem for cartoonists. as soon as they figured out who you were they would just disappear. can i do a big computer screen with a stylus.

i have a hand problem that caused me to move to it. it probably reduce my workload by 70%. the drawings are simple, the words and exchanges are the juice, do you write them out? how is the writing and the drawing. >> in the early days i would write a sentence, and then draw. nowhere was going or how it would end. it ended up being a trademark approach. it violated the standard. so turned out to be the beginning of the age of realism. humor has changed over the years from punchline he stuff and then

in the 70s it was snl like can we say masturbation on tv? that's funny. is violating expectation. if you look at what qualifies as humor today it's reality. we watch politics. how many of you have left watching the news? it's almost designed as humor. so currently and more likely to buy first and draw second. >> in case you're wondering you wrote a few ahead. >> so talk about how technology has changed, how has the culture and the strip change? as the economy goes up and down

what are some things about that word world. >> it changes with society. so in the '90s the bosses had all the power their firing people and you're scrambling to keep your job. now, if you're an engineer like gilbert and his coworkers the have more power so they're more likely to insult their boss to their face kids are harder to replace. i move with the times. >> okay so now were going to switch to win bickley. in 2015 he comes on the escalator you watch a couple of debates or rallies and see this, how soon did you know this was something you had to write about and it would be a book?

>> i can't remember exactly but i remember the two big confirmation points. one was the first debate where he got the question from megan kelly but his comments about women, any normal politician of that day, it's a kill shot comments over. you can explain it away. what is to do. >> limit cutting, people remember that wasn't the big grabbing line, that was just you call them pigs, so this is back in 2015 and what is he do, instead of engaging like a normal human being, he cuts off and says, only rosie o'donnell. so remember his base had a strong feeling about rosie o'donnell. but here's the first

confirmation point. it's visual. he took all of the energy from the question to the answer i'm a genius wasn't wasn't an answer. you almost in care because it was entertaining. after wondering if that is a lucky play you may have noticing this, there was an interview months later with chris cuomo. on cnn. he asked another question in a possible trap imagine how you would answer this. he said this said some bad things about capitalism, what you say to the pope? what does he do, say bad things about capitalism for say bad things about the pope when you're running for president? no. what does he say? i tell the pope to worry about the ice is taking over the vatican. close aggression? i don't know.

they never got back to the question. it didn't matter. it's visual, and provocative. the second confirmation was the low-energy jab. i felt i was online because i started writing about powers of persuasion based on the first clues. i could've been wrong. maybe like. by the time he got to low-energy jab that was a deep technique which would be invisible to the audience the people had not have the training they're not random at all. so were contrasted to a people say about him.

something similar in the clients i came up with was dangerous donald. problem, his supporters wanted a dangerous candidate. someone would drain the swamp, danger was too lazy to flip to a positive. then they tried cheadle just. that's hilarious meaning to mock him but here's the problem, people like cheaters, and they love their jesus. you put those together, cheat on jesus and i want to buy a bag. so now look at this, low-energy jab, the moment you heard it he said that's unusual thing to say

and watch how often he uses something that's out of place. that's his technique. his continuously operating here. that's a bed that is getting get impeached, just not what president should say. so that's the first thing, then he goes in for confirmation later. in this case contrast because he had high-energy campaign. before you heard this he probably thought jeb bush look like calm, cool and collected. the moment you heard low-energy and you realized comparison to high-energy trump, you could never see him the same again. same with crooked hillary, once you lay that offer you could

guarantee something will come up about the foundation or e-mail server. doesn't matter if it's true, you'd be drawn to the nickname. >> when you say it doesn't matter, how broadly do you mean that, do you have to be somewhat inclined toward him for it to work hornets work with everybody? >> in the conversation of the presidential race is something like 5050, no matter what. that's apparently facts don't matter. looking at facts using logic, more like 8020, 20% are paying attention but the others got it right. trying to persuade 2% of the public over 18 months we have

the best persuader the world may have never seen. as he says, is true, it's true you have 18 months to work on the cap public and nonstop coverage, you're going to get it done that's what happened. >> you didn't just say you predicted he would. he predicted a 90% chance he would win. how early? 2015. why did i pick 90%. is it because i did the math? no. it's because davis ever said 2%.

you cannot get that connection out of your head. i also looked at my reputation at the most respected in the field. it was easy to imagine us at the same time. >> in other words this was new business for you. >> i often say that one of the signals for someone chain trained in persuasion is that they can change fields without practice. can become president without being a politician. steve jobs didn't go to college, he formed apple computer and a few other businesses. the people who have persuasion tend to be fluent across fields or others are not.

>> as i watched i was mesmerized, horrified and impressed with what he was able to do including upending people's worldviews. this is the way that candidates worked, even if he lost his persuasion abilities would be worth a book. i also believe that a marginally smarter campaign and the rustbelt may have beaten him. what happens to your prediction of 98% then? >> i wouldn't be here. i'm not stupid. so if i had been room i would've

been embarrassed for your hour of live through it, but i have an unnatural ability to deal shane. the practice skill. i could disrobe , going to. but it's actually learned skill. >> so what i hear is you looking at him as the master right issues in the book in the 98% going out on the live here following many of the same techniques. >> i consider myself a commercial grade persuader. i contrast that through a cognitive scientist. don't believe me, leave the cognitive scientist. above that is the master persuaders were bring in the full package, be it risk-taking or something bigger than the persuasion skills.

you say that notion he has a distortion around him, that too is a description of a master persuader. >> if anybody has a reality distorted they have skills. jobs had them. >> once you're focused on this, did you go back and try to figure out how did this happen? how did he become a master persuader? >> a lot of people don't know that his pastor when he was a kid was norman vincent -- he had a close connection to the most motivational best-selling author. he was the person in america who brought the idea that you can think your way to a better situation.

there's something about how you framed your existence that would make you more effective. my favorite example in an interview he said with 3% gdp those gray both out of hurricane that would've been a 4%. normal present was a 3% is great. but he's already talked the economy into 4%. who's watching, the people who invest. that's what makes a 4%. it's actually norman vincent because the economy was on psychology. he had a father who is a successful business person, probably new negotiating. he wrote a book on negotiating called "the art of the deal". he knows branding, he knows

marketing, he has a sense of humor, is quick on his feet, he's even tall and has something going on up here. watch how many persuaders have something weird going on up there. so he is the full package of skills on top of his personali personality. >> for a long time reading your book maybe stop to think about it. i thought he was some sort of savon. i would watch and play crowd that you're saying, his pastor, and -- if you read a book about how to negotiate, it's important to you. its core to his being.

>> let me ask about bernie sanders. he drew crowds at least as big of strong and elicited some passion and loyalty. two things he does that i find effective is he does still in the narrative. . . as authentic . . when let's follow the audience. when bernie outperformed compared to what you expected? wouldn't you say? and did you notice that maybe you didn't but hillary clinton's persuasion game was pathetic until he dropped out, did you

notice that? that she got over the final summer there was a real change and she went from let me tell you about my morning policy and check my website and i can tell you about it and then she went to these dark and he'll destroy the world with nuclear weapons and which spear which is your ultimate persuasion and that word dark when i saw it and all the pundits have gotten memo and they started using and they said a dark speech after the publican convention and i said i think i know who is advising her and i think he was advising bernie before because bernie had the most award-winning campaign ad and it wasaw the one where simon and garfunkel and people screaming and i got chills when i watched it and it was so good. he had w all the game and then suddenly she went from nothing to something and i speculated

that one of the greatest persuasive of all time may have joined her team after leaving the sinking bernie ship. i had been calling him godzilla in my blogs but because i didn't want to name him and i wasn't sure but i thought i saw the fingerprint on the work and i it is seen a book called persuasion before most people had from the person who wrote influence, the most influential book about how to influence and persuasion talked about things like using that word dark that were prime you to see things in a different way and i thought i see his fingerprint and finally i said it publicly and i sent it to a reporter at one point and he tracked them down and asked for comment and asked him if he were consulting for clinton and his

comment was no comment. now, if they're not consulting for presidential campaign do you say no comment? i don't think so. so some of his associates confirmed that he in fact was. keep in mind, i picked that up from one word because that word was so well-chosen and i recognized it from his writing and i had advance copy of his book which was a mistake for him because i caught him [-left-square-bracket but i think people who had the same training i had could have also recognized it and it wasn't magic but a result of training. did some of the things that i thought in bernie probably with or withoutbe [inaudible] that rs authentic, passionate, does that fall into and how does that fall into persuasion?

>> well, working against him he didn't have a good physical and the visual wasn't good. his hair was always -- the crazy hair. >> yeah, sometimes and maybe it needs to be crazier or more orange but his biggest secret was he was from he wanted to give people free money and you don't have to be the purse persuader in the world if you say free college. >> and free healthcare at the college. >> but yeah, honestly had a good advisor. >> i've got lots of questions and let me ask one or not. it seems if i watch the most successful moves are executive orders and choosing a supreme court justice and neither of which call for much persuasion but who is he persuading these days besides his base?

>> keep in mind he didn't get to do those things until he became president. >> right, but how is it working for him now? >> now it's a whole different bag of persuasion. he is to keep persuading his face and even the republican senators who hate him and can't stop talking about what a bad person he is but when you say will you vote for the things he wants they will say yeah will vote for them and will his way so he has the entire remote inside pretty much dancing the sway he wants. >> and sometimes the president space because when they're passionate they're scared. >> we go on a point by point level is he persuading isis? compare president obama's approach which was we will leave in x days which just persuades isis to see around and we just wait them out. came in and said that persuasion. were going to say were here

forever and were not going to just chase you would destroy your and we are seeing the first surrenders. these to fight to the death and we don't know if that's a trend yet but we are seeing it. isis is largely been wiped out in part of the persuasion was the way he treated the military. he said mattis, you know how to do this i don't, figure it out and i would expect that the morale of the military who are in the fight over there probably the best it's ever been and that is persuasion. so isis is useful with persuasion. certainly with the economy he has talked up. yes, obama is responsible for 70% of u the good times and i ge him a solid a and obama was great and amasa persuader. he was the right person in the right time. in 2009 when9 things w were goig to hell you don't want the orange haired guy -- you want the lawyer says it will be okay i've looked into it and he gets

credit for the strong base but clearly there is a trump bump to the economy and that has everything to do with his persuasion. now you've got isis in the economy and those are both directly and i think pretty demonstrably true persuasion is a big part of that. now he is in china and china loves it. they love him. he's iraq star over there. he clearly is persuading and it works both ways. president xi is persuading him and persuading back in the of this lovely dance just in time that this is crucial to deal with north korea. of stock run is great. are they persuaded? well, i got a feeling that little rocket man for the first time doesn't know if he'll be alive inhe a. that has never been the case before, i would guess. that does m make a difference. >> unlike his brother [-left-square-bracket. >> yeah, you don't want to be

related to him that sure. i would say maybe for the first time there is a chance that something could happen in north korea if you count china's persuasion that is moving in the right direction with the economy and that's looking good. what other topics you got? >> you could of healthcare attacks. >> okay let's talk healthcare. you notice he stood back and let congress take the lead and he basically didn't persuade, not really he didn't put any effort into it and he didn't even care what it was. he said bring something to my desk you years to work on this where the hell is my bill? he said republicans i'm the guy who signs it and my part is i can do. just recently i can sign and they didn't. but the only way you'll ever get a health care bill is the way he played it which is let the republicans go first with the majority of them still hard try

again feel hard realize they have no hope and meanwhile scare the pants off the left because they're watching what the republicans have in mind and they're like no, not that and what is he do when they fail? he says maybe i should talk to the democrats and if you're saying to yourself that he hasn't gotten healthcare done in the time you hoped it would be done true enough but was there a deadline to that? he's letting d obamacare fail ad that's part of the persuasion and he's taking it to the end -- smacks of the sabotaging it ju just. >> is making things were still there is desperation and there's people ready to come in and say the only way this work is if you guys meet in the middle and you never been willing to do that. >> are you>> guessing that he can't predict exactly hownd this will play out and if it looks like healthcare was most

important issue in the elections of the one this week where it used to be an anchor and it's now an asset if that plays out in 2018 and it isn't a republican good republican midterm in some sense the thing you talk about two ways to win and no way to lose i have a feeling that i've always had the feeling that that and his brand survived no matter what happens to republicans. i think he is going to come out ahead if he gets the next congress. i think the surprise would be if the democrats have some big wins and the republicans lost the majority and at least one of the places and i think he has a better chance of negotiating something in the middle. i don't think that's worse for them. the worst case is republican majority shoving something down

the throats of the left and the rest of the country. no one can really be comfortable with that. you need someone to come on the other side. >> interesting. let me get back to the foundation of this. you write this when i pulled out humans think they are rational and they think they understand their reality and they are wrong on both accounts. it is my sense that humans think the rational and i think they understand and it's the foundation for everything else in this book. >> one of the things you learn is that the common view of the world is exactly upside down. what i mean is that the common view is that humans are rational weeatures and we use reason and facts and maybe 90% of the time. the time we get crazy but the hypnotist turns around and says we are irrational 90% of the time and don't know it because we are rationalizing after the fact and only 10% in little

ridiculous things like balancing your checkbook were searching for the best personal line that's rational and there'sal no emotional content but until you understand that we are irrational you can't be a hypnotist because nothing would make sense. the things you do would have no logical -- >> you don't believe hisis work. >> now i learned this many decades ago before there was scientific backing for it so the hypnotist say just act like it's true and watch what happens and they didn't try to put signs on it but now there are books like influence and persuasion and there's tons of science showing that humans don't use rational thought to make decisions and you see yourself. half the country is going to go the way it's going to go to matter runs how much fact and logic is in those decisions? if you go to the grocery store and there's people with five different religions shopping next to you some think they reincarnate, something to live

forever something there's a heaven and these are completely different realities but yet they can all buy groceries and create so it turns out that evolution never cared if you actually understood your reality. it cared if you could make more of yourself and that's a low bar [-left-square-bracket. >> do you certainly think that it's desperate you said if you read an evolutionary psychologist that the difference from what i say and trust them and are there any in particular is that you recommend besides if they were to read something else in thiss round besides when bigley? >> if you google the phrase pre- suasion list, and you'll get persuasion related books and all,. >> let me ask you about a couple of things that we may have mentioned or may not but falling

from the facts that were not rational and so on one of the key things you mentioned is confirmation bias. what is confirmation bias in an example confirmation bias is the human tendency to think that all evidence supports your preconceived notion. we are watching the rush of stuff and there's some hillary stuff and there's drum stuff but then you got to decide which side you're on you believe all the stuff on the other side is definitely true and all the stuff about your candidate can't be true because that's and you know, it has nothing to do with the facts because we really don't have access to the facts of any of that stuff. >> but lest anyone think that when you're looking at politics this is what we do when we are in high school and we think the girl likes us or we don't and it is everything. >> yeah, well once you realize

and i talked about perception in cognitive dissonance as the operating system for human mind and these are not the flaws in the offering system. this is the operating system this is our normal. >> cognitive dissonance. >> it's almost hard to believe if you haven't been exposed to it but i think after the trump experience most people have heard the term and it refers to the fact that if something violates your sense of what is true especially if about yourself you will instantly rewrite the movie in your head to reinterpret it and sometimes ridiculously so until it is something that other people will look at and say well, i thank you lost it in your now crazy but the person who is in it thanks it's perfectly rational

and only looks crazyth on the outside. again, if you think that sounds like a terrible thing to happen to other people you are missing the point. [laughter] we are all in her bubble and were all in her bubble all the time. >> what about an example in not in the campaign but on life of cognitive dissidents are smart. >> if you say a cigarette smoker whonk says why don't you quit smoking and people don't like to think of themselves as having no willpower and they don't like to think of themselves as not being able aware of the science that it will kill you so you get crazy answers like well, i knew someone who smoked three packs a day and had 15 barbecues and ten beers and lived to 110 so -- so what? what does that have to do with you? yeah, got it. you mentioned this thing about visual persuasion is that if you can say something which makes

something here in someone else's mind's eye, if you will and a picture is worth a thousand words a visual piece of persuasion is a thousand words and. >> you ranked the visual type persuasion fear is the top because if you don't take care of your fear you can't do anything else but within the nonsevere category, visual is powerful and it's powerful because were visual creatures in the visual part of your mind just overrules the other part so imagine if candidate trump did not have this visual persuasion was describing border security. he might have said well, we like to have border security any use of writer means and it depends on the train and some train we do this in something we do that and no he said we are building a wall and we all see a wall and as soon as he says that we are all presentingg the wall and thn

it gets better more technique he says and then i'm gonna make mexico pay for it. again, it's a narrow band of [inaudible] and that's odd and that can be right but maybe and maybe and so you obsess on it and while you're thinking about the question and once you are you but who is paying for it then you have somewhat accepted that there will be some kind of wall and how the hell are we paying for that? you will see him use that technique a lot. it's making you think past the sale. >> in the book as i said at the top these things are laid out like this so you can get it in stew about the campaign and you can get either excited or feel but he also delivers to you how you can use the same techniques.

you cite humor as a talent of his and yet i've heard number to say i don't think i've ever seen. what is going on there? >> i heard someone say that i think i might have said it on pierce go for something in immediately people said links of him laughing. >> but it. [inaudible conversations] no one has that fine sense of humor and doesn't last. that would be unusual. >> and a sense of humor is in things like the rosie o'donnell line which is an improv cannot come up with a quip so one thing that people don't understand about his sense of humor and i feel like i have a little advantage there because i grew up in upstate new york and there is definitely a regional sense of humor. there are things that new yorkers would say and do that would be appalling to californians so having seen of

both worlds my favorite example isis the john mccain joke. i prefer people don't get caught. with all due respect to the people in the military and the veterans and i don't mean disrespect but that is a well-known joke four. he was simply reminded of the common joke and what makes it funny to the people who laughed and you don't of other people but what makes it funny is the wrongness of it so the people who are laughing are not laughing at mccain and they're not laughing at veterans there laughing at how badly wrong that was to say and he knew that was wrong with said it and that's why it was funny. it was completely a bad move and i don't count that in his with on the persuasion front it was a mistake because he doesn't mistakes but it was based get a

blind spot because in new york it's a little funnier than it is. >> thing i found interesting scott talks about his at the very up front he says this is my politics and other interesting one for me was these are my filters and i found that very interesting so if youou get a second after asking for so let me ask you about this filter because justt like you said you don't both why not? >> correct. when he learned persuasion one of the things you learned and this is one of the stronger is that as soon as you join the team you vote for the team and you start confirmation bias and then you have confirmation bias for everything the team does a smart and brilliant and i tried to keepo myself from not identifying with an unidentifiable team to keep my objectivityy but i'm not blind o

the fact that i am a human being and therefore made an exaggerated sense of how objective i could be but i do what i can. there are things you can do to at least try to be objective and that's one. >> i'm going to press you on that because it doesn't mean that voting is on your team but it says that when it came down to it that day you made a choice but it doesn't mean -- >> but you don't want your choice to be poorly. then you made your decision way ahead of time. likewise -- >> sears in the act of voting is not it in its that once you're in that mode as you said you are rooting and you begin -- >> very few people made up their mind to decide in the capital on for it so you are reinforcing your bias for months and months for that. >> would we have a problem with

everyone -- [laughter] >> no one if no one else voted i would vote. [laughter] the value of your vote would go way up. >> i found one interesting statistic. trump 14929 amongst those who didn't like any other candidate. what is that have to do with patient? >> this is the first president whose popularity when they did the polls or approval and m lets use up. whose approval may forever stay inle the bullet while people's assumption about how he's doing in the job could flow much higher and there's a huge disconnect and we already said. consumer confidence in wall street confidence in stock market and there are people who are judging the biggest issues as being quite confident but when they look at the approval

they thinkve of something as you said and they think it's over the line and i like my 401k but that's a separate issue. his in this and i'll put it in since weld don't agree on that could not be what buffers of the effect of what we don't love and in other words if he doesn't really get anything done in the stock market might as well do what it does because he's not as relevant or micromanaging. >> keep in mind and it's fascinating that if i have a conversation with someone, who's very anti- trump i can say and they can say what is he done and i'll make a list that is this long and a minute and half later that person who just saw the list to say but he hasn't got anything done and i think that is a perfect example of what i call the two movies on one screen. we literally are seeing a different movie even though were

sitting in the same theater. i have predicted over a year ago that the way that this year would play out is that it would start on inauguration daymy with my god, we've elected hitler and he's marching in the streets and it's terrible but after a few months of hitler stuff and just being a normal president people would say and he didn't roundup anyone improvement concentration camps but he's totally it is so they change the w next thing its in chaos and after the summer and we start to see, compliments ices, the economy, maybe some movement withhc north korea and healthcare will still be problematic but people think that is congress and in their minds we think that's where congress -- >> by the way he could do with itit. >> yes, but at the end of the year allpe the news organizatios are toe start putting together their list of what happened and

it will be a long list and you're not gonna like it because it's going to be republican stuff and if you're not one you'll say well i don't like that stuff but it's going to be a long list and that will be interesting. i predict that by that time people will say all right, he was effective but we don't like the things he's doing and we don't like the regulations he's cut but he did cut a lot of them and that is the stuff republicans wanted. >> just as i watched it's that the appointment is made of people who wanted to do away with the agencies they're running our doing that will make a great deal of the long list and -- is that what they're doing so on and so on? >> it's interesting how many executive orders he assigned that is don't see a lot of the analysis of the damage to it. i assume that they're not all good on paper some of them look like really badr ideas but to gt

rid of this regulation for this perfection and the service they don't look like good ideas but you also don't for the current. >> partly it only starts rolling and that's one of the things about the wonderful flourish will do that. they think it's done but all it does is begin to move levers in the bad effect or good effects will show up for months or years and so on. ted, are we about ready to go to questions? >> okay. >> time for questions. rules around here are questions start the w w or an h and sometimes a dna are typically short and there is no such thing as a two-part question and only [inaudible] >> question on godzilla. you say that you think he was

helping hillary but you never mention did he stop hillary and i don't understand if he was helping to stop at some point because we didn't see the wave of the donald trump and could you comment on that. >> for the annual two of the best traders going head to head and sometimes king kong beats godzilla and i think that's what happened. i have w predicted more of a landslide than a winner by trump and i was surprised that it was as closeum as it was but i wasnt totally surprised because the summer before the election when wewe started the dark persuasioi recognize that as weapons grade and i thought okay now this is a whole new game. if he had kept on the way she started let me tell you about my policies and by the way a woman and elect me because i'm a woman that was that would've been a

violation violation they but she of her game. >> next question on your right. >> thank you. if were 90% irrational -- this way. hello. for 90% irrational what is your irrational thinking? >> i don't understand that spirit well, if were being irrational then how are you being rational about? >> what things in general and my rational about the beauty is that the only person can't tell is a person you asked the question of so if i could recognize my own irrationality i would saytt right now let's use fax so no that's the unanswerable question. we are all essentially in her own little bubble and we can't tell. >> what you think trumps chances

of 20? >> i'm not convinced he will run in 2020 if he has a really good four years and things are lining up that if he gets a little motion on north korea and that looks better and there's something thatno looks like healthcare in the economy stay strong and nicest days beating then he will be unbeatable but he also knows how to go out on top and so given his age which is the real concern that it will only getit worse especially youe heading that age range where it's hard to believe there's not a problem and your best supporter will say you know, i don't know was that clever or was at the no's so his best play to preserve the trump brands in his presidency might be one term but he is also competitive as hell so if there is something on john that he thanks he could do he might be a pitfall and say give me former years and will

try to get this thing done so i think maybe a 50% chance to run when the weather his four years ago. >> i wanted to ask what is your technique are looking for confirmation bias in the news given allll the fake news that keeps coming out? >> yeah, the first thing they dt is when i see something reported that his new and maybe i had scratcher i checked the other networks because the networks are good at getting the facts right just the basic facts. with eight terrible at is a nonbiased interpretation because they use the amount of time they spend on one thing versus the other number of types of gas they have on what those guests a so they bury the facts with opinion and i just tried a sample both sides and if you go between fox news and cnn you are changing universes. msnbc even more.

i try to stick to the facts and see both sides of the confirmation bias and if i see there are two completely believable interpretations but completely different i tend not to believe either one. that just tells you it's easy to come up with any story which is often the case. >> thank you for coming out. too many pictures you're willing to divulge outside of the political arena. >> yeah, so this is probably my picture that c is least likely o come through but i'm in a put it out there anyway. i mentioned that i don't have same like regular f people the football realtors that by the end of the year the full season that the teams felt when more people kneeling will

underperform meaning that they will not meet the spread and that doesn't me know when is a better team is so good that usually wins but i think that is enough of a distraction in a mental mental distraction for small and you can't do two important things at the same time in your brain is in good at doing that so the kneeling would take you out of the football mode is that you in a whole other mode were looking at you and then there's the hatred from your own fans. the home court advantage is the sacrifice. if your fans are saying i used to like football but i hate that [bleep] they will be a three and that's gonna hurt and i also think there's something about the physical act of getting on one knee. that might activate and here's a speckled part might activate the part of your brain that is submissive and it's like the king is not the one who feels.

the winner is for meals and yes i understand that it's an act of defiance and in this specific context is a strong but here's the thing. they want it strong by the 12th week you're just kneeling. [laughter] and here's the thing. your body and your brain are pretty connected and there is research that says if you force yourself to smile your happiness and brain can be activated the same way it works in reverse. if you're happy you will smile but if you smile you can cause yourself to be happy. >> i'm jumping in here for a second there's one i wanted to ask that i forgot which is that you said you lack shame having train yourself and you said the same thing about trump. one reason to be so wrong is that it doesn't matter. as i watch him it seems to me as

he is both thin-skinned and thick-skinned, that he is both hypersensitive and a ball. what is that about. >> confirmation bias. here's the thing. can you imagine that he didn't know how hehe would be treated when he iran for president? he made this choice to be [inaudible] o upon four years. everything indicates that he knew what he was getting into and he was okay with it. the thing you call thin-skinned is any time someone attacks him he immediately responds and that is how you interpret this. >> and blowing things out of proportion and why would you act like -- >> here's the thing. in the context of the campaign and now the people he attacks are the professionals. he's not going around saying you

said something on social media but going after professional journalist writers, politicians and in the case of [inaudible] who was part of the professionals in the context they were doing a political public thing for political people. the technique here is that i had a coworker who became the model for the alice character in my strip why first sawaw the technique and let me tell you for technique and thenid you'll see it in the show. if someone did something she wanted like it was a favor she would immediately go to their bosses say you got the best employee in you should promote this person because they were doing what she wanted but if someone didn't doou what she wanted she would go to the bosses say you gotta get rid of this guy and this is horrible and the worst thing. she would create this giant different gap contrast and

everything about persuasion is contrast with the bad thing and the thing that everyone knew that making her happy that she would give me flowers and bringing flowers as you would please you and get you promoted. she literally got people promoted for doing what she wanted and she had amazing control of the office at the same level of her peers because that. when someone does something that trump likes. for example when i was on cnn he liked what i said and apparently he was watching from air force one and the message came through with a smirk on and she was interview me and i got the word that he liked it and [inaudible] got the word that he liked it or that he was watching it and the same thing and so he complements and helps the people who help them and he goes hard every putime, every time and it doesnt

matter if a republican doesn't matter but you have to be a professional and if you see him going after someone said something on social media then you gotta worry because that wouldn't be technique. that would be thin-skinned but as long as he keeps that line i think you're okay. >> time to for questions. >> the question is how will trump persuade robert mueller? >> that's a good question. let me give you a related story so you can maybe fill in the blanks here. remember when he said that awful thing about the judge and he said i'm paraphrasing but ie don't think i'll get a fair trial because he's mexican. everyone said my god, what a racist he saying he can be a fair judge because he's mexican.

of course, that wasn't what was coming on. here iss what was going on. he talked to neighbor and said hey, neighbor, tell me about yourself. there's a good chance your neighbor will say well, for italian but it means they were all born in america they have italian heritage. the weight talk with himself is exactly the way tom talks about the judge. it was the dinner not long ago where a young man said he was described self he said he's mexican. he was three generations born in this country but he's 20% mexican but he said i mexican. it's the way people talk about themselves. first of all he was using shorthand and this common language but it was a big mistake. however by bringing up the potential bias which is common in the legal context and very uncommon in the political context and wrong in every way but in a legal context which is more important to him at the moment bias is very important printed out and then what happened when the judge had to

pool on when the trial would be held and it could've been before the election which would have been a disaster and that is normallyhe when it would have bn because there's no reason to put it out. insteadd the judge gave him exta consideration and paid after the election and it might've been the difference between winning and losing theud election. did the judge have to do that? he did not. was he treating him like every other person in the legal system? i don't think so. i think he gave him a little extra consideration there. would he havee done that if the president had not called him to the entire world that this judge might be biased perspective he tookhe away his option. in the context of a legal case it was brilliant. in the context of what he worded it and in the political situation it looks like a

[bleep] racist. but if you areit someone like ellen a graduates who is on thej trial among other things his bias is a legitimate thing to bring in a legal context he would say hell, yes, that's my job. that is what i do. certainly if your entire family heritage is in a group that you imagine there might be people not happy with the judge at the next thanksgiving if he ruled in favor of trump then that's legitimate and illegal context and it's illegitimate in almost every other context and we would like it that way we don't want it to be -- point is, about muller, look for things that trump says to be in public to buy us muller to make him give the president a little extra consideration because he doesn'y want to plan to the trap that the president is setting which

is hey, i'm not sure you're being fair here and he will try a little harder to look extra fair. >> one could say that even happened with colby. not in the firing but the coming out on october 28 with looking at new e-mails. >> you could exactly say that. yes. call me was probably waited for the opposite direction to go above and h beyond what he had o do because he was extra good to clinton and went the other way. >> final question for the evening. >> would your opening question when you came out when you asked if thiss would be a hostile audience and i was wondering if that was a persuasive technique mark. [laughter] >> no, i was hoping it was going to be. the hostile audience just has lots of energy and remember i have no shame so it would have

been fun and i was hoping for anything short of violence to happen here today but you've all been extra nice so far. >> backstage and when you're backstage you can hear things in the audience and i've heard as murmuring and you use the word that was much more the rumblin rumbling -- you are already putting them in that role. >> thank you, terrence. thank you, scott. thank you all for coming. [applause] scott has a lingering issue with his hands so he is unable to sign books but he is happy to pose for a photograph with anyone who purchased the book so i will be bringing them into the lobby and will do that. if you -- believe we will see

you at one of our upcoming events. good night. [applause] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] >> i wholeheartedly believe that radical undoing will be the fault lines the different groups and the radical factions. you are absolutely right that i dupe that out in the book. as far as if you want to elaborate on the term radical islam and whether or not it is politically correct i'm not a politician. not pretending to be politically correct and i am a muslim american and i can honestly tell you are not offended by that term. i really don't care what they call it. you can call them savages that

are testing a religion and you can call them anything and everything but the truth of the matter is spending all this time discussing their label is taking away from what they actually are and who cares what we call them. what we need as a nation is to understand the fundamental differences in those groups, but radical islam and the true tenets of the religion and that is the only way to defeat them and to beat and when the global war on terror we must first have to understand that you watch this and other programs online at tv .org's c-span where history unfolds daily. in 1979, c-span was created as a public service by america's cable television companies. it is brought to you todayy