tv Washington Journal Jon Clifton CSPAN January 19, 2018 3:28am-3:55am EST
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"washington journal" continues. managing clifton is partner at gallup, joining us to discuss the new global leadership report. jon clifton, remind us what the survey measures. founder0 years ago, the of our organization, dr. george gallup, studded asking a question he became famous for in america, which is "how do you feel about the leadership of this country?"
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he has done that since harry truman was president, all the way to president trump. 10 years ago, we decided to take the question global and see how the world feels about u.s. leadership. not just u.s. leadership. he wanted to ask about china's leadership, germany's leadership, and russia's leadership. this announces the new results now that trump has been in office for a year. host: take us through the results. guest: after conducting surveys and 134 countries, we find the approval ratings today are now in, down from 48% last year, obama's last term in office. that decline is the single biggest shift we have seen in the history of our tracking. host: in comparison to the other countries utrecht -- germany at 41%. china at 31%. the u.s. at 30. china at 27%. take us over time, the shift we saw with the u.s. numbers. how big of a shift is that?
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guest: it is a massive shift. in the first two years we started tracking, more than the last years of george w. bush in office. the global median dropped to 34%. and obama's first year, there was a 15 point increase, the biggest shift we had seen at that point in the history of our database. through obama's term, it declined slightly. now, you have seen this decline down to 30 in trump's first year. result ofthe shift a specific countries having drop-offs? did we see specific regions? guest: it was the entire world. we saw in 64 countries double-digit declines in terms of how they feel about leadership. you might ask the follow-up question. was this about come specifically? testeday yes, because we trump's name specifically, as we had done with obama in the past, and they highly correlate. host: how do you pick to survey in these different countries around the world?
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guest: great question. we do the most rigorous methodology possible. in 100 countries, we do face-to-face interviewing. nationallyue representative samples, not just urban. and the other 40 countries, we do phone sampling, random digit dial on landline and cell phones. it is a very rigorous methodology that we use in all these countries. host: do people get a chance to say why in their answers? guest: they don't. this is close type and ended surveys we do. everything in our analysis is anecdotal, and we run it against other items in the survey. phonelet me give you the lines for this segment if you want to join the conversation with jon clifton of gallup. the numbers are on your screen. and a special line for outside of the united states.
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jon clifton, do these numbers matter? host: a lot of people say they do matter. global thought leaders just nine nye, popularized soft power, would say you can often get countries to do something -- to act because they want to. this is one of the best indicators to test soft power. someone like joseph nye would say they do matter. if you were to ask someone in the trump administration, they might say, we are making tough decisions right now. when we are making tough decisions, people are not going to like us because of that. trump tweets we are cutting foreign aid to pakistan, for example. there are not going to be a lot of people in pakistan that like that answer. he might be saying it is not what is popular, but we are doing what is right. drop off one a might expect from an america
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first policy? guest: maybe. maybe. i think there are some -- it would be fair to say, when we are saying we do not want to be part of various trade agreements, when we are making tough calls in terms of our stance on various alliances that we have -- even if you look at all of our allies around the world, that is where our biggest drops were. and his of ministration have been very critical of nato. i think you can drop parallel to that. host: the red are countries declines of 10 points or more. talk about the green part, places where it increased by zero points to 10 points or more. talk about those specific regions. guest: i will give you two examples. one is israel. even before president trump made the announcement that america would move its embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem, israel had one of the biggest gains in terms of how they felt about
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american leadership. another more modest increase was russia. for the past two years, russia has seen us the worst of any country in the world, but there was a modest increase from 2% to 8% in terms of u.s. leadership. host: why are you picking china, germany, and russia to make these comparisons? guest: we looked to see some of the most significant world powers. we have tested others including the u.k. and e.u. in the past. but the straightforward answer is that it costs a lot of money to do this, so these were the countries we landed on in the end. significant gems from other countries over the period been any- has there jump like we have seen for the united states? guest: nothing in our history other than when obama came into office. that was a significant jump. there were other interesting countries where there were big leaps. macedonia comes to mind. it might be because of u.s. policies toward macedonia, encouraging them to join the e.u., etc.
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that might be a reason they are high on u.s. leadership. the one that stands at the most to me is, we reached the highest point in the history of our tracking in iraq this year. that might be because the u.s. supported the win over isis most listeny, but also if you to arab media at the moment, one of the big challenges -- they are not saying the u.s. participated. it is hard to say. the survey was also conducted before trump made the announcement that the u.s. would move its capital from tel aviv to jerusalem, so you might see it come down. host: it is the global leadership report. where can viewers go to check it out? guest: gallup.com. host: you can call in if you want to talk about it. we have lines for democrats, republicans, independents, and those outside the u.s.. bernadette is in new mexico, line for democrats. go ahead. morning.ood listen, i am sure you are serving a wonderful purpose, i guess, but it just leads to the
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robo calls, the continuous robo calls that we get from these survey people, taking surveys right. they call at the most inopportune times. sometimes, they are just plain rude, and they do not respond when you say hello, but they have your information. it is like they are looking for a live person. and then all of a sudden, there goes your information, your own private information. they have got your phone number. they have got your address. which leads to what? stealing identities. host: jon clifton, would you respond? guest: thank you for that question. you are asking about robo calls and surveys to the american public. i would say that we need to remember that surveys and polling serves a very important function in america's democracy. these results go right to leaders. more than a representation of what people feel and how they are thinking.
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our founder, dr. george gallup, used to have some of the same criticisms. people said, dr. gallup, should never do what the polls say. he said, we never said that. you do not need to do what the polls say. he suggests, do what is right even if it is unpopular. but he also said you need to know what people are thinking. he believed we are providing a public service and doing it on behalf of leaders representing the voice of the people. when you get those calls, we recommend you voice your opinion. host: how does gallup pay for its polling? guest: we pay for it ourselves. we do work with fortune 500 companies and government, and take a lot of those funds and use it to serve our mission, this mission created by george gallup 80-odd years ago. host: do you have a ballpark of what it costs to survey 135 different countries? guest: i have more than a ballpark. over 12 years of tracking, we have invested more than $100 million in this initiative. host: this specific survey.
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guest: that is right. host: in new york, an independent. good morning. caller: my thing with donald trump is, he loves you if you agree with him. as soon as you disagree with him, he hates you and he starts knocking you and saying terrible things about you. that is the problem with his leadership. host: that is stephen with his thoughts. scott is on our line for republicans. scott, go ahead. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. offended, first of all -- i want to say this -- i get offended when people call our good nation a democracy. it is actually a republic, said by ben franklin. second of all, the survey claims that -- they are claiming that people don't like america because of trump.
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i see it not serving the abc, cbs,irection of nbc, and cnn. i just want to know what liberal college this surveyor is doing his -- that he graduated from. host: jon clifton, what are your credentials? guest: i have been a gallop for a decade. i went to school at the university of michigan and the university of nebraska. i think you bring up an interesting point, which is, in addition to do these matter and how does the world feel about us -- remember that just because respondents are saying we are not high on america's leadership does not mean that the world is down on america. we ask a different question, which is, would you like to leave your country permanently? oferestingly enough, one out seven people around the planet say they would like to leave their country permanently. not a surprise that half of the people in sierra leone would like to leave permanently, or
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21% of people would like to leave france permanently. we ask a follow-up question, where would you like to go? the number one thing people say to us, without question, is the united states. over 150 million people say they would like to permanently relocate to the united states. that was true under bush, under obama, and under president trump. this meansthink that that people are starting to hate america. in fact, you could argue that these other data suggest that the american dream is alive and well outside the borders of the united states. host: eddie is in mitchell, indiana. line for democrats. go ahead. morning, and thank you for c-span. i like the chart you showed at the very beginning of this. this just goes to prove what i think and have said all along. when election time would come, if we would just -- if people would just sit out for two or three elections, and the rest of the world would see how bad our is, i honestlyly
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believe that would straighten our government out, and it would fix everything that is going on down here in america. thank you. have a good day. host: jon clifton? guest: one thing i might say is, in terms of how people feel about our government, you are right. we asked all over the world, do you think that corruption is widespread in your government today. 10 years ago, a slight majority of americans said yes to that. over the past decade, that number has increased to 75%. i had a reporter asked me who makes up that 75%, and i jokingly said back to him, when you get back to 75%, that is a must everyone. the belief there is widespread corruption in the united states is a very big concern today. either way, that is also not true of other developed democracies. take germany, for example. germany was a must on par in terms of how many people felt corruption was widespread in germany 10 years ago, around
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50%. today, the number has plummeted to around 30%. twice as many americans feel corruption is widespread in the government today compared to how people feel about their own government in germany. host: our government made up of more than just the executive branch. how much do you attribute the drop we have seen over the past year to congress, and in action by congress? or the fact that bills are not making their way through congress? guest: probably not much. the reason i say that is we have tested the name of leaders next to this question. we went to latin america and said, how do you personally feel about president trump? lester, we said, how do you personally feel about president obama? almostbers were identical. we do know congress's approval ratings have plummeted. it used to be a punchline. it is getting to a point where it is not funny anymore, down to 15% of people who approve of how congress is doing their job. host: connecticut, line for
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independents. caller: i want to make a comment polls.he results of the first, the me say something about polls. i have never had gallup call me, nor quinnipiac, and i live in connecticut. i think it is atrocious that trump and obama -- obama gave away everything. of course the world is going to tell everybody they dislike what trump has done. he is definitely not perfect. but in my opinion, he is doing a hell of a lot better than obama did, and he is taking this country to where we need to be. that is all i have to say. thank you for listening. let me address the first comment that gallup has not been able to reach you at this point. our founder used to get that question very often. if gallup show -- call so many people, why haven't they called me yet? he was giving a speech in front
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of a large audience when a woman stood up and said the same thing. he shot back to her and said, statistically, the chances of us calling you, when we call a thousand people for 330 million people -- the chance is the same as you being struck by lightning. the woman actually laughed and said, that is funny, because i have been struck by lightning. so we have stopped saying that. but just so everyone is aware -- statistically, it is highly unlikely to get a phone call from gallup. but i hope we are able to continue to do this. we have a mission to do this for the next 73 years. hopefully we are able to get your opinion in thaturvey. host: another chart from the global leadership report, the approval of u.s. leadership in africa. 51% approving, 51% disapproving. did this survey take place before reports about the president's comments about african countries? guest: it did. it did. the interesting thing about africa is, approval ratings
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remain relatively high in africa, although there has been an eight year downward trend in africa in terms of how they feel about u.s. leadership. when you look at it compared to the rest of the countries, you have to keep in mind that africa is high on global leaders everywhere. the other trend that we keep in mind -- this is true for the rest of the world. our approval ratings are close to china. a lot of people are looking at africa, saying, in terms of soft power, who is winning the war was to mark these data would suggest that china continues to emerge as a significant leader in africa. california, the line for republicans. john, you with us? , in lakeland, minnesota, line for independents. caller: go ahead. good morning, america and c-span. comments for you -- it is funny. first, the statistics of the world loving us, or whatever, or
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liking our leadership in the last year would go down -- this was one of two points i have. donaldthe fact that trump called everybody out not paying their fair share of nato, as well as that we cut our budget to the united nations because of so much waste. of course that is going to affect that. the second point of this is, you cannot put too much credit into some of this stuff, because you have to remember that obama got a nobel peace prize when he first got into office, and had office, had a year into and he did more drone strikes than anybody else, and killed more people, and more innocent civilians. that is my comments. thank you. host: mr. clifton? guest: i think that is largely
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true. as i mentioned before, a lot of times -- george gallup used to have a saying, where he said you do not necessarily do what the polls say, but you need to do what is right. ofcould be argued that some the controversial things are difficult decisions being made by president trump are unpopular. these polls would reflect exactly that. host: what is going on in macedonia? guest: i think one of the interesting things about macedonia is, the united states has supported its entry into nato, and also the e.u. a lot of times, within-country policy matters. host: u.s. approval in macedonia up 15 percentage points from last year. guest: that is right. take kosovo. kosovo has among the highest approval ratings of the united states in the world right now. one of the reasons is, when kosovo declared independence years ago, the day after, the united states came out and said, we support that and recognize kosovo's independence. approval ratings soared toward u.s. leadership.
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in serbia next-door, they plummeted, and serbia was down on u.s. leadership. host: what was the biggest surprise to you? guest: as i mentioned before, the biggest surprise to me was a rack, seeing the highest approval ratings in the last decade, especially with some controversial decisions. because those countries matter, the contribution to the war on isis -- that was the bigger surprise for me. jersey,nice is in new the line for democrats. good morning. go ahead, janice. caller: my question is, has gallup ever made a poll asking the question why people do not vote, and what the reasons are? i believe a lot of people are just so discouraged with the process, our democratic process, as it does not seem to be working. everything is about you are a republican or a democrat, and there is no moderates anymore,
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and i believe that is the reason president trump was elected. thank you. guest: i think that is an excellent question. some of the things we do ask about our how people feel about the individual parties. your comments are right. of evilook now in terms associated as a democrat or republican, one thing on the rise is people who associate with being an independent. you could argue those data suggest if there is ever a time for a third-party, it might be now. host: jerry is in wisconsin, line for republicans. go ahead. caller: first-time caller. i have been an avid viewer of c-span for the last couple of years. if there is one thing i have noticed with c-span, it is the disorganization of our congress and senate in their rules for voting on different issues. i was wondering if gallup would consider doing a nationwide poll of americans, and ask the question, do we feel that the senate and the house need to
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-- you know what i am saying, organize their rules to have one or two days per week when all members are required to be in their seats to do votes? i am seeing boats that take an hour, hour and 15 minutes. if any business in the country operated the way the congress and senate knew, it would have gone belly up in 1780. the senate and congress could reorganize their rules and have certain days for committee meetings, certain days for voting. i think you kind of get the drift of where i am going here. host: let me let jon clifton jump in. guest: it is definitely an interesting question, and it is clear you have a great deal of knowledge on that topic. whether or not we would do a poll on it might be challenging, because remember, americans individually are typically experts on their own topic, like it suggests that you said on the
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call, that it can become a challenge sometimes asking very specific issues. take for example awareness when it comes to the percentage of wonle who know who america its independence from. 20% americans do not know. they say things like canada or china. asking a nuanced question about whether or not congress should reorganize may not yield the type of helpful results are insights that you may personally have. that may be a challenge to do on a survey, on exactly that topic. i think what is most helpful is whether or not americans think congress are doing their jobs effectively. i think what we see now in our results is that americans overwhelmingly say no. it has gotten so low. just two years ago, it reached a new low, under 10%. i think that is the most helpful survey we can do for leadership's right now. host: what is the process gallup uses to decide whether to ask a new question? guest: we ask new questions all
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the time, and ask questions to bewe think are going most helpful to leaders in washington, throughout the country, and throughout the world. host: how do you decide what helpful is? guest: it is a difficult question. they can be topical issues. one thing we are focused on his trends over time. that is why we ask people what they know most about, like their own lives. we start something like well-being, whether lives are getting better or not. we think that is information leaders can use, because they can know whether or not their policies are effective, is whether or not people's lives are getting better is a perception, but also a reality that we think is informative for leaders. host: one more call. harry is in wellsville, pennsylvania, a democrat. good morning. say i: it is so nice to know exactly about jon clifton, and i love the job that he is , with thehe surveys
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united states and [indiscernible] how deep your process has gone. you are one of the great leaders in online surveying. the call.ks for jon clifton, do you do political surveys on whether a blue wave is coming, as the caller was saying? guest: we do. we do. you could argue that a blue wave is coming, because right now, when we asked people, do you associate as being a conservative or as being a ineral, the number of people america is at an all-time high in terms of those who associate with being a liberal. if that is an indicator in terms of a blue wave coming, that would be it. host: jon clifton is a managing partner at gallup.
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